Latest / STRAT / Hal Kempfer Returns: Analyzing Global Risks and Remembering a Friend

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Hal Kempfer Returns: Analyzing Global Risks and Remembering a Friend · STRAT

• 0:02
  From
• 0:02
  the
• 0:03
  Mutual
• 0:03
  Broadcasting
• 0:04
  System,
• 0:04
  this
• 0:05
  is
• 0:06
  STRAT
• 0:06
  -
• 0:06
  Strategic
• 0:07
  Risk
• 0:07
  Assessment
• 0:08
  Talk.
• 0:11
  When
• 0:12
  the
• 0:12
  world
• 0:12
  at
• 0:12
  odds
• 0:13
  and
• 0:13
  risks
• 0:13
  run
• 0:14
  high,
• 0:15
  tune
• 0:16
  in
• 0:16
  each
• 0:16
  week
• 0:17
  where
• 0:17
  insights
• 0:18
  never
• 0:18
  lie.
• 0:21
  STRAT
• 0:21
  to
• 0:22
  show
• 0:22
  on
• 0:22
  wars
• 0:23
  and
• 0:23
  peace.
• 0:24
  From
• 0:25
  conflicts
• 0:25
  old
• 0:26
  to
• 0:26
  new,
• 0:26
  crises
• 0:27
  unleashed,
• 0:31
  threats
• 0:32
  unfold.
• 0:33
  But
• 0:33
  how
• 0:33
  can
• 0:33
  braving
• 0:34
  stories
• 0:35
  bold,
• 0:35
  from
• 0:35
  espionage
• 0:36
  to
• 0:37
  economic
• 0:37
  might
• 0:38
  bring
• 0:38
  perspective
• 0:39
  see
• 0:39
  the
• 0:40
  light?
• 0:40
  Every
• 0:41
  week
• 0:42
  across
• 0:42
  the
• 0:42
  globe,
• 0:43
  we
• 0:43
  spin
• 0:44
  decoding
• 0:45
  gray
• 0:45
  zones
• 0:46
  where
• 0:46
  battles
• 0:47
  often
• 0:47
  begin.
• 0:52
  Now,
• 0:53
  retired
• 0:53
  marine
• 0:54
  intelligence
• 0:54
  officer
• 0:55
  and
• 0:55
  globally
• 0:55
  recognized
• 0:56
  risk
• 0:57
  expert,
• 0:57
  Hal
• 0:57
  Kemper.
• 0:59
  Well,
• 1:00
  Welcome
• 1:00
  to
• 1:00
  STRAT
• 1:00
  -
• 1:00
  Strategi
• 1:01
  risk
• 1:01
  Assessment
• 1:02
  talk.
• 1:02
  This
• 1:02
  is
• 1:02
  Hal
• 1:02
  Kemper,
• 1:03
  your
• 1:03
  host.
• 1:03
  And
• 1:04
  after
• 1:04
  a
• 1:04
  long
• 1:05
  pause,
• 1:05
  we
• 1:05
  are
• 1:06
  starting
• 1:06
  up
• 1:06
  the
• 1:06
  Strat
• 1:07
  podcast
• 1:07
  again,
• 1:07
  and
• 1:08
  I
• 1:08
  hope
• 1:08
  you
• 1:08
  enjoy
• 1:08
  it.
• 1:09
  We
• 1:09
  have
• 1:09
  a
• 1:09
  little.
• 1:09
  Well,
• 1:10
  I
• 1:10
  should
• 1:10
  explain
• 1:10
  the
• 1:11
  we
• 1:11
  part
• 1:11
  first
• 1:11
  off,
• 1:12
  but
• 1:12
  there's
• 1:12
  a
• 1:12
  little
• 1:12
  bit
• 1:12
  different
• 1:13
  format.
• 1:13
  All
• 1:13
  right.
• 1:14
  We
• 1:14
  is
• 1:15
  basically
• 1:16
  the
• 1:16
  team
• 1:17
  we
• 1:17
  have
• 1:17
  that
• 1:17
  puts
• 1:17
  these
• 1:18
  together.
• 1:18
  But
• 1:19
  before
• 1:19
  I
• 1:19
  say
• 1:19
  anything
• 1:20
  more
• 1:20
  for
• 1:20
  those
• 1:20
  who
• 1:21
  have
• 1:21
  listened
• 1:21
  to
• 1:21
  strat
• 1:21
  in
• 1:22
  the
• 1:22
  past,
• 1:22
  you
• 1:22
  remember
• 1:23
  my
• 1:23
  partner,
• 1:23
  Mark
• 1:23
  Mansfield.
• 1:24
  He
• 1:24
  and
• 1:24
  I
• 1:24
  are
• 1:25
  business
• 1:25
  partners.
• 1:25
  We
• 1:26
  go
• 1:26
  back
• 1:26
  a
• 1:26
  long
• 1:26
  way,
• 1:27
  friends,
• 1:28
  and
• 1:28
  sadly,
• 1:29
  tragically,
• 1:30
  he
• 1:30
  passed
• 1:30
  away
• 1:31
  at
• 1:31
  Christmas
• 1:32
  and
• 1:32
  caught
• 1:32
  all
• 1:33
  of
• 1:33
  us
• 1:33
  by
• 1:33
  surprise.
• 1:34
  The
• 1:34
  last
• 1:34
  person
• 1:35
  you
• 1:35
  would
• 1:35
  have
• 1:35
  thought
• 1:36
  would
• 1:36
  pass
• 1:36
  away,
• 1:37
  he
• 1:37
  was.
• 1:38
  As
• 1:38
  far
• 1:38
  as
• 1:38
  we
• 1:38
  knew,
• 1:38
  he
• 1:39
  was
• 1:39
  in
• 1:39
  great
• 1:39
  physical
• 1:40
  shape.
• 1:40
  He
• 1:40
  used
• 1:41
  to
• 1:41
  go
• 1:41
  run
• 1:41
  at
• 1:41
  noon
• 1:42
  with
• 1:42
  weight
• 1:42
  vests
• 1:43
  on.
• 1:43
  I
• 1:43
  mean,
• 1:43
  he
• 1:43
  just
• 1:44
  was
• 1:44
  somebody
• 1:44
  you
• 1:44
  wouldn't
• 1:45
  expect
• 1:45
  something
• 1:45
  to
• 1:46
  happen
• 1:46
  to.
• 1:46
  And
• 1:47
  he.
• 1:47
  He
• 1:47
  just
• 1:48
  suddenly
• 1:48
  passed
• 1:48
  away
• 1:49
  due
• 1:49
  to
• 1:49
  natural
• 1:49
  causes.
• 1:50
  And
• 1:50
  we're
• 1:51
  all
• 1:51
  still
• 1:51
  somewhat
• 1:52
  stunned
• 1:52
  and
• 1:52
  shocked
• 1:53
  by
• 1:53
  what
• 1:53
  happened
• 1:54
  there.
• 1:54
  I
• 1:54
  just
• 1:54
  want
• 1:55
  to
• 1:55
  say
• 1:55
  that
• 1:56
  I
• 1:56
  certainly
• 1:56
  value
• 1:57
  every
• 1:57
  day
• 1:58
  that
• 1:58
  I've
• 1:58
  known
• 1:59
  Mark.
• 1:59
  He
• 1:59
  made
• 1:59
  an
• 2:00
  incredible
• 2:00
  imprint
• 2:01
  on
• 2:01
  so
• 2:02
  many
• 2:02
  different
• 2:02
  things,
• 2:03
  but
• 2:03
  definitely
• 2:04
  all
• 2:04
  who
• 2:04
  knew
• 2:05
  him,
• 2:05
  his
• 2:05
  family,
• 2:05
  also
• 2:06
  everybody
• 2:06
  who's
• 2:06
  listened
• 2:07
  to
• 2:07
  him.
• 2:07
  And
• 2:07
  I
• 2:08
  have
• 2:08
  literally
• 2:09
  traveled
• 2:09
  around
• 2:09
  the
• 2:09
  world
• 2:10
  doing
• 2:10
  major
• 2:11
  corporate
• 2:12
  war
• 2:12
  games
• 2:12
  and
• 2:12
  other
• 2:13
  events
• 2:13
  with
• 2:13
  him,
• 2:14
  and
• 2:14
  he's
• 2:15
  touched
• 2:15
  a
• 2:15
  lot
• 2:15
  of
• 2:15
  people
• 2:16
  with
• 2:16
  his
• 2:17
  wisdom,
• 2:17
  his
• 2:18
  insight,
• 2:18
  his
• 2:18
  good
• 2:19
  nature,
• 2:19
  if
• 2:19
  you
• 2:19
  will.
• 2:20
  I
• 2:20
  don't,
• 2:20
  you
• 2:20
  know,
• 2:21
  there
• 2:21
  probably
• 2:21
  won't
• 2:21
  any,
• 2:22
  ever
• 2:22
  be
• 2:22
  anybody
• 2:23
  quite
• 2:23
  like
• 2:23
  Mark.
• 2:24
  Of
• 2:24
  course,
• 2:25
  as
• 2:25
  we've
• 2:25
  talked
• 2:25
  about
• 2:26
  on
• 2:26
  the
• 2:26
  show
• 2:26
  before,
• 2:27
  a
• 2:27
  former
• 2:27
  canadian
• 2:28
  navy
• 2:28
  officer,
• 2:28
  and
• 2:29
  certainly
• 2:29
  between
• 2:30
  him
• 2:30
  being
• 2:30
  Canadian
• 2:31
  Navy
• 2:31
  and
• 2:31
  my
• 2:32
  being
• 2:32
  a
• 2:32
  US
• 2:32
  Marine,
• 2:32
  we
• 2:33
  go
• 2:33
  back
• 2:33
  and
• 2:33
  forth
• 2:33
  on
• 2:34
  that,
• 2:34
  as
• 2:34
  you
• 2:34
  can
• 2:34
  well
• 2:34
  imagine,
• 2:35
  just
• 2:35
  a
• 2:36
  tremendous
• 2:36
  intellect
• 2:37
  and
• 2:38
  Harvard
• 2:38
  MBA,
• 2:39
  investment
• 2:39
  banker.
• 2:40
  That's
• 2:40
  why
• 2:40
  we've
• 2:41
  taken
• 2:41
  such
• 2:41
  a
• 2:41
  long
• 2:42
  period
• 2:42
  of
• 2:42
  time
• 2:42
  here.
• 2:42
  To
• 2:43
  really
• 2:43
  come
• 2:43
  back
• 2:44
  and
• 2:44
  get
• 2:44
  this
• 2:44
  going
• 2:44
  again
• 2:45
  is
• 2:45
  because
• 2:45
  we
• 2:45
  weren't
• 2:46
  quite
• 2:46
  sure
• 2:46
  where
• 2:46
  we're
• 2:47
  going
• 2:47
  to
• 2:47
  go
• 2:47
  with
• 2:47
  this.
• 2:47
  It's
• 2:48
  going
• 2:48
  to
• 2:48
  be
• 2:48
  a
• 2:48
  little
• 2:49
  bit
• 2:49
  different
• 2:49
  format.
• 2:50
  Anyway,
• 2:50
  I'm
• 2:50
  going
• 2:50
  to
• 2:50
  carry
• 2:51
  on
• 2:51
  in
• 2:51
  the
• 2:51
  spirit
• 2:52
  of
• 2:52
  certainly
• 2:52
  what
• 2:53
  Mark
• 2:53
  would
• 2:53
  hope,
• 2:54
  I
• 2:54
  assume
• 2:54
  he
• 2:55
  would
• 2:55
  hope
• 2:55
  I
• 2:55
  would
• 2:55
  want
• 2:55
  to
• 2:56
  keep
• 2:56
  doing.
• 2:56
  And
• 2:56
  we're
• 2:56
  going
• 2:57
  to
• 2:57
  talk
• 2:57
  about
• 2:57
  what's
• 2:58
  going
• 2:58
  on
• 2:58
  around
• 2:59
  the
• 2:59
  world.
• 2:59
  I'm
• 2:59
  going
• 2:59
  to
• 2:59
  talk
• 3:00
  about
• 3:00
  some
• 3:00
  of
• 3:00
  the
• 3:00
  strategic
• 3:00
  implications.
• 3:01
  I'm
• 3:02
  going
• 3:02
  to
• 3:02
  start
• 3:02
  probably
• 3:03
  where
• 3:03
  all
• 3:03
  the
• 3:03
  news
• 3:04
  starts
• 3:04
  today.
• 3:04
  I'm
• 3:04
  going
• 3:04
  to
• 3:05
  talk
• 3:05
  about
• 3:05
  the
• 3:05
  Middle
• 3:05
  east
• 3:06
  with
• 3:06
  Israel
• 3:07
  basically
• 3:08
  dealing
• 3:08
  with
• 3:09
  essentially
• 3:09
  a
• 3:09
  forefront
• 3:10
  war
• 3:10
  right
• 3:10
  now,
• 3:11
  and
• 3:11
  I'll
• 3:11
  talk
• 3:11
  about
• 3:11
  that.
• 3:11
  Then
• 3:12
  I'm
• 3:12
  going
• 3:12
  to
• 3:12
  turn
• 3:12
  to
• 3:12
  Europe,
• 3:13
  talk
• 3:13
  about
• 3:14
  Russia,
• 3:14
  Ukraine,
• 3:15
  talk
• 3:16
  a
• 3:16
  little
• 3:16
  bit
• 3:16
  about
• 3:16
  what's
• 3:16
  happening
• 3:17
  in
• 3:17
  Asia,
• 3:17
  the
• 3:17
  South
• 3:18
  China
• 3:18
  Sea,
• 3:19
  talk
• 3:19
  about
• 3:19
  some
• 3:20
  of
• 3:20
  the
• 3:20
  things
• 3:20
  in
• 3:20
  Africa,
• 3:21
  the
• 3:21
  western
• 3:21
  hemisphere.
• 3:22
  I'm
• 3:22
  gonna
• 3:23
  make
• 3:23
  a
• 3:23
  little
• 3:23
  reference
• 3:23
  to
• 3:24
  some
• 3:24
  of
• 3:24
  the
• 3:24
  gray
• 3:24
  zone
• 3:24
  activities
• 3:25
  going
• 3:25
  on
• 3:25
  out
• 3:25
  there,
• 3:26
  what
• 3:26
  was
• 3:26
  sometimes
• 3:26
  called
• 3:27
  hybrid
• 3:27
  warfare.
• 3:28
  Certainly
• 3:29
  the,
• 3:29
  the
• 3:29
  world
• 3:29
  of
• 3:30
  espionage
• 3:30
  falls
• 3:31
  into
• 3:31
  that.
• 3:31
  And,
• 3:31
  of
• 3:31
  course,
• 3:32
  terrorism
• 3:32
  throughout.
• 3:33
  I'll
• 3:33
  be
• 3:33
  talking
• 3:33
  about
• 3:33
  various
• 3:34
  macroeconomic
• 3:35
  trends,
• 3:35
  news
• 3:36
  implications
• 3:37
  of
• 3:37
  what's
• 3:38
  being
• 3:38
  done.
• 3:38
  So
• 3:38
  let's,
• 3:39
  let's
• 3:39
  go
• 3:39
  ahead
• 3:39
  and
• 3:40
  start
• 3:40
  talking
• 3:40
  about
• 3:40
  the
• 3:41
  Middle
• 3:41
  east.
• 3:41
  As
• 3:42
  some
• 3:42
  of
• 3:42
  you
• 3:42
  know,
• 3:42
  I,
• 3:43
  I
• 3:43
  appear
• 3:43
  regularly
• 3:44
  on
• 3:44
  Fox
• 3:45
  Live
• 3:45
  now.
• 3:46
  That's
• 3:46
  their
• 3:46
  digital
• 3:46
  streaming
• 3:47
  news
• 3:47
  network
• 3:48
  and
• 3:48
  also
• 3:48
  news
• 3:49
  nation
• 3:49
  and
• 3:50
  a
• 3:50
  variety
• 3:50
  of
• 3:51
  Fox
• 3:51
  News
• 3:51
  stations
• 3:52
  and
• 3:53
  other
• 3:53
  media,
• 3:54
  NPR
• 3:54
  and
• 3:54
  others
• 3:55
  on
• 3:55
  a
• 3:55
  regular
• 3:55
  basis.
• 3:56
  For
• 3:56
  those
• 3:56
  who
• 3:56
  have
• 3:57
  been
• 3:57
  following
• 3:57
  me
• 3:57
  on
• 3:57
  those,
• 3:57
  you
• 3:58
  know,
• 3:58
  I've
• 3:58
  been
• 3:58
  talking
• 3:58
  about
• 3:59
  what's
• 3:59
  happening
• 3:59
  in
• 3:59
  the
• 3:59
  Middle
• 3:59
  East
• 4:00
  a
• 4:00
  lot,
• 4:01
  and
• 4:01
  part
• 4:02
  of
• 4:02
  that
• 4:02
  is
• 4:03
  Israel
• 4:04
  versus,
• 4:04
  first
• 4:05
  it
• 4:05
  was
• 4:05
  Hamas,
• 4:06
  then
• 4:06
  one
• 4:07
  could
• 4:07
  say
• 4:07
  it
• 4:07
  was
• 4:07
  the
• 4:07
  Houthis
• 4:08
  and
• 4:08
  Hezbollah.
• 4:09
  But
• 4:09
  throughout
• 4:10
  all
• 4:10
  this
• 4:10
  has
• 4:10
  been
• 4:11
  Iran
• 4:11
  and,
• 4:12
  of
• 4:12
  course,
• 4:12
  Iran.
• 4:13
  When
• 4:13
  you
• 4:13
  talk
• 4:13
  about
• 4:14
  the
• 4:14
  axis
• 4:15
  of
• 4:15
  resistance,
• 4:16
  iranian
• 4:17
  backed
• 4:17
  proxies.
• 4:18
  Well,
• 4:18
  you
• 4:18
  can't
• 4:18
  have
• 4:18
  iranian
• 4:19
  backed
• 4:19
  proxies,
• 4:20
  unless,
• 4:20
  of
• 4:20
  course,
• 4:20
  you
• 4:20
  have
• 4:21
  Iran.
• 4:21
  Some
• 4:22
  of
• 4:22
  you
• 4:22
  know
• 4:22
  that
• 4:23
  Iran
• 4:23
  launched
• 4:24
  another
• 4:25
  onslaught
• 4:25
  of
• 4:26
  ballistic
• 4:26
  missiles
• 4:27
  into
• 4:27
  Israel,
• 4:28
  basically
• 4:28
  almost
• 4:29
  a
• 4:29
  replay
• 4:30
  of
• 4:30
  what
• 4:30
  they
• 4:30
  did
• 4:30
  last
• 4:31
  April.
• 4:31
  Fortunately,
• 4:32
  they
• 4:33
  were
• 4:33
  not
• 4:33
  very
• 4:34
  successful
• 4:34
  in
• 4:35
  getting
• 4:35
  through,
• 4:36
  and
• 4:36
  they
• 4:36
  didn't
• 4:36
  cause
• 4:37
  any
• 4:37
  israeli
• 4:38
  casualties
• 4:39
  per
• 4:39
  se,
• 4:39
  although
• 4:39
  there
• 4:40
  was
• 4:40
  a
• 4:40
  palestinian
• 4:41
  woman
• 4:41
  in
• 4:41
  the
• 4:41
  West
• 4:41
  bank
• 4:42
  that
• 4:42
  was
• 4:43
  tragically
• 4:43
  killed
• 4:44
  by
• 4:44
  falling
• 4:44
  debris
• 4:45
  from
• 4:46
  one
• 4:46
  of
• 4:46
  the
• 4:46
  ballistic
• 4:46
  missiles.
• 4:47
  But
• 4:47
  the
• 4:47
  Iron
• 4:48
  Dome
• 4:48
  did
• 4:48
  what
• 4:49
  it
• 4:49
  was
• 4:49
  supposed
• 4:49
  to
• 4:49
  do,
• 4:50
  albeit
• 4:50
  with
• 4:50
  that
• 4:51
  said,
• 4:51
  as
• 4:51
  more
• 4:51
  information
• 4:52
  comes
• 4:52
  out,
• 4:52
  we
• 4:52
  realize
• 4:53
  that
• 4:53
  Iran
• 4:54
  had
• 4:54
  changed
• 4:54
  their
• 4:54
  ballistic
• 4:55
  missile
• 4:55
  tactics
• 4:56
  and
• 4:56
  that
• 4:56
  actually
• 4:57
  more
• 4:57
  missiles
• 4:57
  were
• 4:57
  able
• 4:58
  to
• 4:58
  get
• 4:58
  further
• 4:58
  and
• 4:58
  got
• 4:59
  through
• 4:59
  to
• 4:59
  some
• 4:59
  places
• 5:00
  than
• 5:00
  originally
• 5:01
  thought.
• 5:01
  But
• 5:01
  fortunately,
• 5:02
  there
• 5:02
  was
• 5:02
  no
• 5:02
  israeli
• 5:03
  loss
• 5:03
  of
• 5:03
  life,
• 5:04
  nor
• 5:04
  was
• 5:04
  there
• 5:04
  any
• 5:05
  significant
• 5:06
  damage
• 5:06
  to
• 5:06
  buildings
• 5:07
  or
• 5:07
  structures,
• 5:08
  but
• 5:08
  there
• 5:08
  were
• 5:08
  some
• 5:08
  warheads
• 5:09
  that
• 5:09
  actually
• 5:09
  did
• 5:10
  get
• 5:10
  through.
• 5:10
  Why
• 5:11
  is
• 5:11
  this
• 5:11
  big?
• 5:11
  Well,
• 5:12
  what's
• 5:12
  big
• 5:12
  now
• 5:13
  is
• 5:13
  that,
• 5:13
  of
• 5:13
  course,
• 5:14
  this
• 5:14
  is
• 5:14
  basically
• 5:15
  uncorked,
• 5:16
  if
• 5:16
  you
• 5:16
  will,
• 5:17
  a
• 5:17
  potential
• 5:18
  escalation
• 5:18
  of
• 5:19
  events.
• 5:19
  Israel
• 5:20
  certainly
• 5:20
  has
• 5:21
  the
• 5:21
  right,
• 5:21
  if
• 5:21
  nothing
• 5:22
  the
• 5:22
  obligation
• 5:23
  to
• 5:23
  respond
• 5:24
  to
• 5:24
  what
• 5:24
  just
• 5:25
  happened.
• 5:25
  They
• 5:26
  did
• 5:26
  respond
• 5:26
  to
• 5:26
  what
• 5:27
  happened
• 5:27
  last
• 5:27
  April,
• 5:27
  and
• 5:28
  they
• 5:28
  did
• 5:28
  it
• 5:28
  in
• 5:28
  a
• 5:29
  very
• 5:29
  unusual
• 5:29
  way.
• 5:30
  They
• 5:30
  did
• 5:31
  a
• 5:31
  very
• 5:31
  limited
• 5:31
  strike
• 5:32
  on
• 5:32
  a
• 5:32
  radar
• 5:32
  facility
• 5:33
  in
• 5:33
  a
• 5:33
  very
• 5:34
  sensitive
• 5:34
  area
• 5:35
  in
• 5:35
  Iran,
• 5:35
  an
• 5:36
  area
• 5:36
  that
• 5:36
  the
• 5:36
  Iranians
• 5:37
  probably
• 5:37
  thought
• 5:37
  was
• 5:38
  impervious
• 5:38
  to
• 5:39
  airstrike.
• 5:39
  And
• 5:40
  it
• 5:40
  was
• 5:40
  to
• 5:40
  make
• 5:40
  a
• 5:40
  statement.
• 5:41
  And
• 5:41
  the
• 5:41
  statement
• 5:42
  to
• 5:42
  Iran
• 5:42
  was,
• 5:43
  we
• 5:43
  can
• 5:43
  get
• 5:43
  into
• 5:43
  these
• 5:44
  places
• 5:44
  and
• 5:44
  we
• 5:45
  can
• 5:45
  strike
• 5:45
  you
• 5:45
  where
• 5:45
  you
• 5:46
  think
• 5:46
  you
• 5:46
  can't
• 5:46
  be
• 5:46
  struck.
• 5:47
  And
• 5:47
  obviously,
• 5:48
  that
• 5:48
  message
• 5:48
  has
• 5:49
  been
• 5:49
  lost
• 5:49
  on,
• 5:50
  you
• 5:50
  know,
• 5:50
  Ayatollah
• 5:51
  Khamenei,
• 5:51
  the
• 5:52
  supreme
• 5:52
  leader
• 5:52
  over
• 5:52
  there,
• 5:53
  although
• 5:53
  he
• 5:54
  did
• 5:54
  obviously
• 5:54
  listen
• 5:55
  to
• 5:55
  a
• 5:55
  little
• 5:55
  bit
• 5:55
  of
• 5:55
  it
• 5:55
  because
• 5:56
  shortly
• 5:56
  after
• 5:57
  the
• 5:57
  strike
• 5:58
  took
• 5:58
  place,
• 5:59
  he
• 5:59
  immediately
• 5:59
  went
• 5:59
  into
• 6:00
  hiding.
• 6:00
  So
• 6:01
  obviously,
• 6:01
  he
• 6:01
  did
• 6:02
  know
• 6:02
  that
• 6:02
  Israel
• 6:02
  had
• 6:03
  some
• 6:03
  pretty
• 6:03
  long
• 6:03
  arm,
• 6:04
  if
• 6:04
  you
• 6:04
  will,
• 6:05
  that
• 6:05
  could
• 6:05
  strike.
• 6:05
  And,
• 6:05
  of
• 6:06
  course,
• 6:06
  this
• 6:06
  is
• 6:06
  after
• 6:07
  Hasan
• 6:07
  Nasrallah,
• 6:08
  the
• 6:08
  head
• 6:08
  of
• 6:09
  Hezbollah,
• 6:09
  had
• 6:10
  been
• 6:10
  killed,
• 6:11
  assassinated,
• 6:11
  if
• 6:12
  you
• 6:12
  will,
• 6:12
  in
• 6:12
  a
• 6:12
  massive
• 6:13
  strike
• 6:13
  in
• 6:14
  southern
• 6:14
  Beirut.
• 6:15
  There's
• 6:15
  been
• 6:15
  a
• 6:16
  number
• 6:16
  of
• 6:16
  senior
• 6:16
  leadership
• 6:17
  figures
• 6:17
  in
• 6:18
  Hezbollah
• 6:18
  and
• 6:19
  Hamas
• 6:19
  taken
• 6:19
  out
• 6:20
  on
• 6:20
  a
• 6:20
  regular
• 6:20
  basis.
• 6:21
  It
• 6:21
  looks
• 6:21
  like
• 6:22
  Nasrallah's
• 6:22
  heir
• 6:23
  apparent
• 6:23
  may
• 6:23
  have
• 6:23
  just
• 6:24
  been
• 6:24
  taken
• 6:24
  out
• 6:25
  in
• 6:25
  a
• 6:25
  strike.
• 6:26
  So
• 6:27
  let's
• 6:27
  just
• 6:27
  say
• 6:27
  Israel
• 6:28
  has
• 6:28
  some
• 6:28
  capabilities
• 6:29
  in
• 6:29
  that
• 6:29
  regard.
• 6:30
  Right
• 6:30
  now.
• 6:31
  The
• 6:31
  question
• 6:31
  is,
• 6:32
  what
• 6:32
  is
• 6:32
  Israel
• 6:33
  going
• 6:33
  to
• 6:33
  do?
• 6:33
  They
• 6:34
  could
• 6:34
  go
• 6:34
  after
• 6:34
  the
• 6:34
  nuclear
• 6:35
  facilities
• 6:35
  in
• 6:35
  Iran.
• 6:36
  That,
• 6:36
  of
• 6:37
  course,
• 6:37
  could
• 6:37
  cause
• 6:37
  a
• 6:38
  major
• 6:38
  escalation
• 6:39
  in
• 6:40
  the
• 6:40
  conflict
• 6:40
  beyond
• 6:41
  where
• 6:41
  it
• 6:41
  is
• 6:41
  now.
• 6:41
  Although
• 6:42
  I
• 6:42
  would
• 6:42
  point
• 6:42
  out,
• 6:43
  because
• 6:43
  of
• 6:44
  how
• 6:44
  Iran
• 6:45
  has
• 6:45
  its
• 6:45
  nuclear
• 6:45
  facilities
• 6:46
  arrayed,
• 6:47
  they
• 6:47
  would
• 6:47
  probably
• 6:48
  have
• 6:48
  to
• 6:48
  have
• 6:49
  a
• 6:49
  rather
• 6:49
  protracted
• 6:50
  series
• 6:50
  of
• 6:50
  strikes.
• 6:51
  And
• 6:51
  more
• 6:51
  importantly,
• 6:52
  they
• 6:52
  would
• 6:52
  have
• 6:52
  to
• 6:52
  do
• 6:52
  what's
• 6:53
  called
• 6:53
  a
• 6:53
  destruction
• 6:54
  of
• 6:54
  enemy
• 6:55
  air
• 6:55
  defense
• 6:56
  or
• 6:56
  dead.
• 6:57
  Dead
• 6:58
  is
• 6:58
  the
• 6:58
  name
• 6:58
  of
• 6:59
  that
• 6:59
  particular
• 7:00
  tactical
• 7:00
  evolution.
• 7:01
  And
• 7:01
  so
• 7:01
  they
• 7:01
  would
• 7:02
  basically,
• 7:02
  it
• 7:02
  wouldn't
• 7:03
  be
• 7:03
  just
• 7:03
  suppressing,
• 7:03
  but
• 7:04
  it
• 7:04
  would
• 7:04
  be
• 7:04
  actually
• 7:04
  the
• 7:04
  destruction
• 7:05
  of
• 7:05
  their
• 7:05
  air
• 7:05
  defenses,
• 7:06
  which
• 7:06
  would
• 7:06
  provide
• 7:07
  a
• 7:07
  permissive
• 7:08
  strike
• 7:08
  zone,
• 7:08
  if
• 7:09
  you
• 7:09
  will,
• 7:09
  in
• 7:09
  a
• 7:09
  number
• 7:10
  of
• 7:10
  areas
• 7:10
  which
• 7:10
  would
• 7:11
  allow
• 7:11
  multiple
• 7:12
  strikes,
• 7:12
  multiple
• 7:13
  sorties
• 7:13
  to
• 7:13
  come
• 7:13
  in
• 7:13
  to
• 7:13
  take
• 7:14
  out
• 7:14
  a
• 7:14
  lot
• 7:14
  of
• 7:14
  different
• 7:14
  things.
• 7:15
  And,
• 7:15
  of
• 7:15
  course,
• 7:15
  it
• 7:16
  would
• 7:16
  actually
• 7:16
  create
• 7:17
  a
• 7:17
  situation
• 7:18
  there
• 7:18
  where
• 7:19
  Iran
• 7:20
  would
• 7:20
  feel
• 7:20
  extremely
• 7:20
  vulnerable,
• 7:21
  and
• 7:21
  that
• 7:22
  could
• 7:22
  have
• 7:22
  potential
• 7:22
  political
• 7:23
  implications
• 7:24
  in
• 7:24
  Iran.
• 7:24
  And
• 7:25
  I
• 7:25
  should
• 7:25
  also
• 7:25
  mention
• 7:25
  that
• 7:25
  Netanyahu
• 7:26
  has
• 7:27
  reached
• 7:27
  out
• 7:28
  to
• 7:28
  the
• 7:28
  iranian
• 7:28
  people
• 7:29
  in
• 7:29
  a
• 7:29
  recent
• 7:29
  broadcast
• 7:30
  trying
• 7:31
  to
• 7:31
  separate
• 7:32
  their
• 7:32
  interests
• 7:32
  from
• 7:32
  the
• 7:32
  interests
• 7:33
  of
• 7:33
  the
• 7:34
  theocratic,
• 7:34
  autocratic
• 7:35
  regime.
• 7:36
  And
• 7:36
  that
• 7:36
  was
• 7:37
  a
• 7:37
  rather
• 7:37
  interesting,
• 7:38
  if
• 7:38
  you
• 7:38
  will,
• 7:38
  strategic
• 7:39
  communication
• 7:39
  that
• 7:40
  took
• 7:40
  place.
• 7:40
  So
• 7:41
  we'll
• 7:41
  see
• 7:41
  if
• 7:41
  that
• 7:41
  happens.
• 7:42
  I
• 7:42
  will
• 7:42
  say
• 7:42
  one
• 7:42
  thing,
• 7:43
  though,
• 7:43
  that
• 7:44
  when
• 7:45
  Israel
• 7:45
  had
• 7:46
  retaliated
• 7:47
  against
• 7:47
  a
• 7:47
  strike
• 7:48
  that
• 7:48
  came
• 7:48
  from
• 7:48
  the
• 7:49
  houthi
• 7:49
  rebels
• 7:50
  down
• 7:50
  in
• 7:50
  Yemen,
• 7:51
  they
• 7:51
  went
• 7:51
  after
• 7:52
  not
• 7:53
  just
• 7:53
  where
• 7:53
  the
• 7:53
  missiles
• 7:54
  were
• 7:54
  launched
• 7:55
  from,
• 7:55
  but
• 7:55
  they
• 7:55
  went
• 7:55
  after
• 7:56
  a
• 7:56
  key
• 7:57
  port,
• 7:57
  a
• 7:58
  couple
• 7:58
  of
• 7:58
  key
• 7:58
  ports,
• 7:59
  and
• 7:59
  they
• 7:59
  went
• 7:59
  after
• 8:00
  the
• 8:00
  way
• 8:00
  that
• 8:00
  they
• 8:01
  get
• 8:01
  their
• 8:02
  armaments
• 8:02
  in
• 8:02
  from
• 8:03
  Iran.
• 8:03
  They
• 8:03
  went
• 8:03
  after
• 8:04
  some
• 8:04
  of
• 8:04
  the
• 8:04
  critical
• 8:05
  infrastructure,
• 8:06
  the
• 8:06
  supply
• 8:07
  chain,
• 8:07
  if
• 8:07
  you
• 8:07
  will,
• 8:08
  in
• 8:08
  terms
• 8:08
  of
• 8:08
  shutting
• 8:09
  that
• 8:09
  down
• 8:10
  to
• 8:10
  some
• 8:10
  degree.
• 8:10
  And
• 8:11
  so
• 8:11
  that's
• 8:11
  something
• 8:11
  that's
• 8:11
  being
• 8:12
  discussed
• 8:12
  with
• 8:12
  Iran
• 8:13
  and
• 8:13
  the
• 8:13
  implication
• 8:13
  there
• 8:14
  is
• 8:14
  they
• 8:14
  might
• 8:14
  look
• 8:14
  at
• 8:15
  reports,
• 8:15
  they
• 8:15
  might
• 8:15
  also
• 8:16
  look
• 8:16
  at
• 8:16
  oil.
• 8:17
  And
• 8:17
  President
• 8:17
  Biden
• 8:18
  at
• 8:18
  first
• 8:19
  had
• 8:19
  talked
• 8:19
  about
• 8:19
  the
• 8:19
  possibility
• 8:20
  of
• 8:20
  Iran
• 8:20
  striking
• 8:21
  oil,
• 8:21
  and
• 8:22
  that
• 8:22
  would
• 8:22
  be
• 8:22
  things
• 8:22
  like
• 8:23
  refineries
• 8:23
  and
• 8:24
  other
• 8:24
  oil
• 8:24
  facilities.
• 8:25
  The
• 8:25
  market
• 8:26
  reacted
• 8:26
  with
• 8:26
  a
• 8:26
  big
• 8:26
  jump
• 8:27
  in
• 8:27
  oil
• 8:27
  prices.
• 8:27
  And
• 8:28
  so
• 8:28
  he
• 8:28
  just
• 8:28
  came
• 8:29
  out
• 8:29
  and
• 8:29
  said,
• 8:29
  no,
• 8:30
  maybe
• 8:30
  they
• 8:30
  shouldn't
• 8:30
  strike
• 8:30
  the
• 8:31
  oil
• 8:31
  because
• 8:31
  he
• 8:32
  realized
• 8:32
  what
• 8:32
  he
• 8:32
  did,
• 8:32
  causing
• 8:33
  a
• 8:33
  price
• 8:33
  shock.
• 8:33
  But
• 8:34
  interestingly,
• 8:34
  there's
• 8:35
  a
• 8:35
  lot
• 8:35
  of
• 8:35
  things
• 8:35
  there
• 8:35
  that
• 8:36
  have
• 8:36
  some
• 8:36
  fairly
• 8:37
  significant
• 8:37
  implications.
• 8:38
  And
• 8:38
  of
• 8:38
  course,
• 8:39
  the
• 8:39
  other
• 8:39
  side
• 8:40
  is
• 8:40
  depending
• 8:40
  on
• 8:40
  what's
• 8:40
  done
• 8:41
  there,
• 8:41
  could
• 8:41
  turn
• 8:42
  the
• 8:42
  persian
• 8:43
  gulf
• 8:43
  into
• 8:44
  a
• 8:44
  body
• 8:44
  of
• 8:45
  water
• 8:45
  with
• 8:45
  the
• 8:45
  same
• 8:45
  problems
• 8:46
  that
• 8:46
  we
• 8:47
  are
• 8:47
  seeing,
• 8:47
  say,
• 8:48
  around
• 8:48
  the
• 8:48
  Red
• 8:49
  Sea,
• 8:49
  Gulf
• 8:49
  of
• 8:50
  Aden,
• 8:50
  Babelmandeb
• 8:51
  Strait,
• 8:51
  with
• 8:51
  the
• 8:52
  Houthis,
• 8:52
  only
• 8:52
  more
• 8:52
  so.
• 8:53
  And
• 8:53
  so
• 8:53
  there,
• 8:54
  there
• 8:54
  are
• 8:54
  major
• 8:55
  macroeconomic
• 8:56
  implications,
• 8:57
  supply
• 8:57
  chain
• 8:57
  implications,
• 8:58
  potential
• 8:58
  price
• 8:59
  shock
• 8:59
  implications,
• 9:00
  particularly
• 9:00
  with
• 9:00
  oil
• 9:01
  and
• 9:01
  gas,
• 9:02
  depending
• 9:02
  on
• 9:02
  what
• 9:02
  happens
• 9:03
  next.
• 9:03
  And
• 9:03
  that's
• 9:03
  something
• 9:04
  that
• 9:04
  we're
• 9:04
  going
• 9:04
  to
• 9:04
  have
• 9:04
  to
• 9:04
  be
• 9:05
  watching
• 9:05
  very,
• 9:05
  very
• 9:06
  closely.
• 9:06
  But
• 9:06
  the
• 9:07
  market
• 9:07
  is
• 9:07
  reacting
• 9:08
  to
• 9:08
  whatever's
• 9:09
  done
• 9:09
  there
• 9:09
  in
• 9:09
  a
• 9:10
  major
• 9:10
  way.
• 9:10
  So
• 9:11
  that's
• 9:11
  some
• 9:11
  of
• 9:11
  the
• 9:11
  stuff
• 9:11
  on
• 9:12
  the
• 9:12
  Middle
• 9:12
  east.
• 9:12
  Obviously,
• 9:13
  I
• 9:14
  shouldn't
• 9:14
  ignore
• 9:15
  what's
• 9:15
  happening
• 9:15
  in
• 9:15
  Gaza
• 9:16
  with
• 9:16
  Hamas,
• 9:17
  number
• 9:17
  of
• 9:17
  leaders
• 9:18
  taken
• 9:18
  out.
• 9:18
  And
• 9:19
  interestingly,
• 9:19
  it's
• 9:20
  Yaya
• 9:20
  Sinwar,
• 9:21
  the
• 9:22
  du
• 9:22
  jour
• 9:22
  and
• 9:23
  certainly
• 9:23
  de
• 9:23
  facto
• 9:24
  head
• 9:24
  of
• 9:24
  Hamas,
• 9:25
  who
• 9:25
  is
• 9:25
  in
• 9:25
  hiding
• 9:26
  somewhere,
• 9:26
  probably
• 9:26
  in
• 9:27
  some
• 9:27
  tunnel,
• 9:28
  had
• 9:28
  been
• 9:28
  out
• 9:28
  of
• 9:28
  contact
• 9:29
  for
• 9:29
  a
• 9:29
  long
• 9:29
  period
• 9:29
  of
• 9:30
  time.
• 9:30
  In
• 9:30
  fact,
• 9:30
  looking
• 9:31
  at
• 9:31
  some
• 9:31
  of
• 9:31
  the
• 9:31
  open
• 9:32
  source
• 9:32
  reports
• 9:33
  out
• 9:33
  there,
• 9:33
  it
• 9:34
  is
• 9:34
  still
• 9:34
  not
• 9:34
  clear
• 9:34
  to
• 9:35
  me
• 9:35
  if
• 9:35
  anybody
• 9:36
  has
• 9:36
  actually
• 9:36
  communicated
• 9:37
  with
• 9:37
  him
• 9:38
  in
• 9:38
  weeks.
• 9:38
  There's
• 9:39
  a
• 9:39
  lot
• 9:39
  of
• 9:39
  reports
• 9:39
  that
• 9:39
  he
• 9:39
  is
• 9:40
  moving
• 9:40
  around,
• 9:41
  that
• 9:41
  he's
• 9:41
  relying
• 9:42
  on
• 9:42
  couriers.
• 9:43
  But
• 9:43
  there's
• 9:43
  still
• 9:43
  this
• 9:44
  persistent
• 9:44
  report
• 9:45
  that
• 9:45
  there
• 9:46
  has
• 9:46
  been
• 9:46
  no
• 9:46
  communication
• 9:47
  with
• 9:47
  him,
• 9:47
  certainly
• 9:48
  by
• 9:48
  Hamas,
• 9:48
  and
• 9:49
  say
• 9:49
  Doha
• 9:50
  in
• 9:50
  Qatar
• 9:51
  for
• 9:51
  some
• 9:51
  time.
• 9:52
  So
• 9:52
  his
• 9:53
  status
• 9:53
  is
• 9:53
  unclear.
• 9:54
  And
• 9:55
  there
• 9:55
  may
• 9:55
  be
• 9:56
  deeper
• 9:56
  problems
• 9:57
  with
• 9:57
  the
• 9:57
  command
• 9:58
  structure
• 9:58
  within
• 9:59
  Hamas
• 9:59
  than
• 10:00
  are
• 10:01
  being
• 10:01
  publicly
• 10:02
  appreciated.
• 10:02
  So
• 10:02
  that's
• 10:03
  a
• 10:03
  major
• 10:04
  issue
• 10:04
  there.
• 10:04
  Now
• 10:05
  here's
• 10:05
  an
• 10:05
  interesting
• 10:06
  thing
• 10:06
  that
• 10:07
  a
• 10:07
  lot
• 10:07
  of
• 10:07
  folks
• 10:08
  may
• 10:08
  have
• 10:08
  missed
• 10:09
  is
• 10:09
  what
• 10:10
  is
• 10:10
  the
• 10:10
  situation
• 10:11
  with
• 10:11
  Turkey?
• 10:12
  As
• 10:12
  you
• 10:12
  know,
• 10:12
  Turkey
• 10:13
  has
• 10:13
  been
• 10:13
  very
• 10:13
  critical
• 10:14
  of
• 10:14
  how
• 10:15
  Israel
• 10:15
  has
• 10:15
  gone
• 10:16
  into
• 10:16
  Gaza.
• 10:16
  There's
• 10:17
  been
• 10:17
  tremendous
• 10:18
  strain
• 10:18
  certainly
• 10:19
  in
• 10:19
  the
• 10:20
  rhetoric
• 10:20
  between
• 10:20
  Turkey
• 10:21
  and
• 10:21
  Israel.
• 10:22
  Yet
• 10:22
  Turkey
• 10:23
  is
• 10:23
  a
• 10:23
  regional
• 10:24
  player.
• 10:24
  Their
• 10:25
  regional
• 10:25
  player
• 10:26
  is
• 10:26
  aligned
• 10:27
  more
• 10:27
  or
• 10:27
  less
• 10:27
  on
• 10:27
  the
• 10:27
  sunni
• 10:28
  side
• 10:28
  of
• 10:29
  Islam,
• 10:29
  and
• 10:30
  they
• 10:30
  see
• 10:31
  Iran
• 10:31
  as
• 10:32
  a
• 10:32
  strategic
• 10:32
  competitor.
• 10:33
  Yet
• 10:33
  at
• 10:34
  the
• 10:34
  same
• 10:34
  time,
• 10:35
  they
• 10:35
  have
• 10:35
  a
• 10:35
  lot
• 10:35
  of
• 10:36
  affinity
• 10:36
  and
• 10:36
  support
• 10:37
  for
• 10:37
  the
• 10:37
  Palestinians.
• 10:38
  So
• 10:38
  there's
• 10:39
  this
• 10:39
  rather
• 10:39
  unusual
• 10:40
  situation
• 10:41
  where
• 10:42
  they
• 10:42
  ostensibly
• 10:43
  support
• 10:44
  the
• 10:44
  palestinian
• 10:44
  cause,
• 10:45
  the
• 10:45
  concept
• 10:46
  of
• 10:46
  palestinian
• 10:46
  statehood.
• 10:47
  What
• 10:47
  they
• 10:47
  see
• 10:48
  is
• 10:48
  perhaps
• 10:49
  Israel
• 10:49
  using
• 10:50
  tactics,
• 10:51
  operations,
• 10:51
  weapons
• 10:52
  in
• 10:52
  an
• 10:52
  overbearing
• 10:53
  way
• 10:53
  in
• 10:54
  the
• 10:54
  Gaza
• 10:54
  Strip
• 10:54
  and
• 10:55
  elsewhere.
• 10:55
  On
• 10:55
  the
• 10:56
  other
• 10:56
  hand,
• 10:56
  they
• 10:57
  also
• 10:57
  see
• 10:57
  Israel
• 10:58
  providing
• 10:58
  a
• 10:59
  strategic
• 10:59
  check,
• 10:59
  if
• 11:00
  you
• 11:00
  will,
• 11:00
  against
• 11:01
  Iran.
• 11:02
  And
• 11:02
  so
• 11:02
  they
• 11:03
  will
• 11:03
  certainly
• 11:04
  call
• 11:04
  for
• 11:04
  ceasefire,
• 11:05
  certainly
• 11:05
  call
• 11:06
  for
• 11:06
  a
• 11:06
  number
• 11:06
  of
• 11:06
  things,
• 11:07
  but
• 11:07
  they
• 11:08
  have
• 11:08
  to
• 11:08
  balance
• 11:08
  that
• 11:08
  with,
• 11:09
  they
• 11:09
  would
• 11:09
  certainly
• 11:10
  like
• 11:10
  to
• 11:10
  see
• 11:11
  Iran
• 11:11
  have
• 11:12
  its
• 11:12
  power
• 11:12
  and
• 11:12
  influence
• 11:13
  in
• 11:13
  the
• 11:13
  region
• 11:13
  vastly
• 11:14
  diminished,
• 11:15
  and
• 11:15
  Israel
• 11:16
  is
• 11:16
  providing
• 11:16
  a
• 11:16
  way
• 11:17
  to
• 11:17
  do
• 11:17
  that
• 11:17
  right
• 11:17
  now.
• 11:18
  So
• 11:18
  rather
• 11:19
  interesting,
• 11:19
  and
• 11:19
  I
• 11:19
  bring
• 11:20
  that
• 11:20
  up
• 11:20
  because
• 11:21
  Turkey
• 11:21
  is
• 11:22
  a
• 11:22
  NATO
• 11:23
  country.
• 11:23
  It
• 11:24
  is
• 11:24
  the
• 11:24
  only
• 11:25
  NATO
• 11:25
  country
• 11:26
  that
• 11:26
  really
• 11:27
  is,
• 11:27
  has
• 11:28
  a
• 11:28
  footprint
• 11:28
  in
• 11:28
  the
• 11:29
  Middle
• 11:29
  east.
• 11:29
  And
• 11:29
  the
• 11:29
  way
• 11:29
  it
• 11:30
  does,
• 11:30
  you
• 11:30
  know,
• 11:30
  certainly
• 11:31
  that's
• 11:31
  always
• 11:31
  been
• 11:32
  the
• 11:32
  crossroads.
• 11:33
  That's
• 11:33
  where
• 11:33
  Europe
• 11:33
  and
• 11:33
  Asia
• 11:34
  meets.
• 11:34
  So
• 11:34
  it
• 11:35
  is
• 11:35
  a
• 11:35
  rather
• 11:35
  interesting
• 11:36
  situation
• 11:37
  with
• 11:37
  Turkey,
• 11:37
  and
• 11:38
  they've
• 11:38
  been
• 11:39
  absolutely
• 11:40
  instrumental
• 11:40
  in
• 11:41
  dealing
• 11:41
  with
• 11:41
  some
• 11:41
  of
• 11:41
  the
• 11:42
  counter
• 11:42
  mine
• 11:43
  operations,
• 11:44
  basically
• 11:44
  helping
• 11:44
  to
• 11:45
  put
• 11:45
  a
• 11:45
  check
• 11:45
  on
• 11:46
  the
• 11:46
  russian
• 11:46
  navy
• 11:47
  and
• 11:47
  the
• 11:47
  Black
• 11:47
  Sea
• 11:48
  and
• 11:48
  elsewhere.
• 11:49
  And,
• 11:49
  of
• 11:49
  course,
• 11:49
  Russia
• 11:50
  is
• 11:50
  more
• 11:50
  or
• 11:50
  less
• 11:51
  aligned
• 11:51
  with
• 11:52
  Iran.
• 11:53
  They
• 11:53
  have
• 11:53
  a
• 11:53
  very
• 11:53
  close
• 11:54
  strategic
• 11:54
  relationship
• 11:55
  right
• 11:55
  now.
• 11:55
  So
• 11:55
  it
• 11:56
  is
• 11:56
  interesting
• 11:56
  to
• 11:56
  see
• 11:57
  how
• 11:57
  Erdogan
• 11:58
  and
• 11:58
  Turkey
• 11:59
  are
• 11:59
  dealing
• 11:59
  with
• 11:59
  this
• 12:00
  situation
• 12:00
  as
• 12:01
  it
• 12:01
  unfolds.
• 12:01
  And
• 12:02
  obviously,
• 12:03
  there's
• 12:03
  a
• 12:03
  fear
• 12:04
  of
• 12:04
  bleed
• 12:04
  over
• 12:04
  this
• 12:04
  conflict
• 12:05
  that
• 12:05
  it
• 12:06
  could
• 12:06
  cause
• 12:06
  more
• 12:06
  problems
• 12:07
  throughout
• 12:07
  the
• 12:07
  Middle
• 12:07
  east.
• 12:07
  But,
• 12:08
  you
• 12:08
  know,
• 12:08
  I
• 12:08
  have
• 12:08
  to
• 12:09
  tell
• 12:09
  you,
• 12:09
  having
• 12:10
  been
• 12:10
  talking
• 12:10
  about
• 12:10
  this
• 12:11
  since
• 12:11
  it
• 12:11
  began,
• 12:11
  the
• 12:12
  focus
• 12:12
  had
• 12:12
  always
• 12:13
  been
• 12:13
  on
• 12:14
  talking
• 12:15
  about
• 12:15
  possible
• 12:16
  expansion
• 12:16
  and
• 12:16
  stuff.
• 12:17
  One
• 12:17
  thing
• 12:17
  we
• 12:17
  may
• 12:18
  see,
• 12:18
  though,
• 12:18
  is
• 12:18
  the
• 12:19
  possibility
• 12:19
  of
• 12:19
  Hezbollah
• 12:20
  doing
• 12:20
  something
• 12:21
  here.
• 12:21
  They
• 12:21
  have
• 12:21
  been
• 12:22
  operating
• 12:22
  certainly
• 12:22
  in
• 12:22
  the
• 12:23
  western
• 12:23
  hemisphere
• 12:23
  of
• 12:23
  Europe,
• 12:23
  all
• 12:24
  over
• 12:24
  the
• 12:24
  world
• 12:24
  for
• 12:24
  quite
• 12:24
  some
• 12:25
  time.
• 12:25
  So
• 12:25
  we
• 12:26
  may
• 12:26
  see
• 12:26
  something
• 12:26
  akin
• 12:27
  to
• 12:27
  that.
• 12:27
  And
• 12:28
  everybody
• 12:28
  is
• 12:28
  leaning
• 12:29
  forward
• 12:29
  on
• 12:29
  the
• 12:29
  potential
• 12:30
  threat
• 12:30
  of
• 12:30
  terrorism
• 12:30
  that
• 12:31
  could
• 12:31
  come
• 12:31
  out
• 12:31
  of
• 12:31
  this.
• 12:31
  So
• 12:32
  let's
• 12:32
  talk
• 12:32
  about
• 12:33
  what's
• 12:33
  going
• 12:33
  on
• 12:33
  in
• 12:33
  Europe.
• 12:34
  Obviously,
• 12:34
  President
• 12:35
  Zelensky
• 12:35
  went
• 12:35
  and
• 12:35
  spoke
• 12:36
  before
• 12:36
  the
• 12:36
  United
• 12:36
  nations.
• 12:37
  He's
• 12:37
  got
• 12:37
  a
• 12:38
  victory
• 12:38
  plan
• 12:39
  that
• 12:39
  he's
• 12:39
  been
• 12:39
  pushing
• 12:39
  out
• 12:40
  there.
• 12:40
  A
• 12:40
  lot
• 12:40
  of
• 12:40
  the
• 12:40
  victory
• 12:41
  plan
• 12:41
  seems
• 12:41
  to
• 12:41
  be
• 12:42
  centered
• 12:42
  on
• 12:42
  getting
• 12:43
  permission
• 12:43
  to
• 12:43
  use
• 12:44
  western
• 12:44
  supplied
• 12:44
  long
• 12:45
  range
• 12:45
  weapons,
• 12:46
  like
• 12:46
  longer
• 12:46
  range
• 12:47
  attack
• 12:47
  of
• 12:47
  missiles
• 12:48
  and
• 12:48
  storm
• 12:48
  shadow
• 12:49
  cruise
• 12:49
  missiles
• 12:50
  from
• 12:50
  the
• 12:50
  west,
• 12:50
  to
• 12:50
  hit
• 12:51
  very
• 12:51
  much
• 12:51
  deep
• 12:52
  inside
• 12:52
  russian
• 12:52
  territory.
• 12:53
  That
• 12:54
  permission
• 12:54
  has
• 12:54
  not
• 12:55
  been
• 12:55
  granted
• 12:56
  yet.
• 12:57
  I
• 12:57
  don't
• 12:57
  know
• 12:57
  when
• 12:58
  that
• 12:58
  will
• 12:58
  be.
• 12:58
  There
• 12:59
  is
• 12:59
  certainly
• 12:59
  concerns
• 13:00
  in
• 13:00
  the
• 13:00
  White
• 13:00
  House
• 13:01
  that
• 13:01
  this
• 13:01
  could
• 13:02
  escalate,
• 13:02
  and
• 13:03
  the
• 13:03
  concern
• 13:03
  is
• 13:04
  that
• 13:04
  Russia
• 13:04
  might
• 13:05
  feel
• 13:05
  at
• 13:05
  some
• 13:05
  point
• 13:06
  the
• 13:06
  necessity
• 13:07
  to
• 13:07
  uncork
• 13:08
  the
• 13:09
  nuclear
• 13:09
  genie,
• 13:10
  or
• 13:10
  at
• 13:10
  least
• 13:10
  the
• 13:10
  tactical
• 13:11
  nuclear
• 13:11
  genie,
• 13:12
  whether
• 13:12
  that
• 13:13
  be
• 13:13
  a
• 13:13
  demonstration
• 13:14
  explosion
• 13:15
  or
• 13:16
  to
• 13:16
  start
• 13:16
  doing
• 13:17
  underground
• 13:17
  testing
• 13:18
  of
• 13:18
  nuclear
• 13:18
  weapons
• 13:19
  or
• 13:19
  whatever
• 13:19
  it
• 13:19
  is,
• 13:20
  to
• 13:20
  basically
• 13:21
  escalate
• 13:21
  this
• 13:21
  matter
• 13:21
  more.
• 13:22
  Although
• 13:22
  if
• 13:22
  they
• 13:23
  go
• 13:23
  that
• 13:23
  direction,
• 13:24
  they're
• 13:24
  going
• 13:24
  to
• 13:24
  cause
• 13:24
  some
• 13:25
  real
• 13:25
  tension
• 13:26
  and
• 13:26
  problems
• 13:26
  with
• 13:27
  China,
• 13:27
  and
• 13:27
  they're
• 13:28
  going
• 13:28
  to
• 13:28
  cause
• 13:28
  some
• 13:28
  tension
• 13:29
  to
• 13:29
  China
• 13:29
  with
• 13:29
  what
• 13:29
  we
• 13:30
  call
• 13:30
  the
• 13:30
  global
• 13:30
  south.
• 13:31
  They
• 13:31
  certainly
• 13:31
  don't
• 13:31
  want
• 13:31
  to
• 13:32
  see
• 13:32
  something
• 13:32
  like
• 13:32
  that
• 13:32
  happen,
• 13:33
  and
• 13:33
  it
• 13:33
  could
• 13:33
  really
• 13:34
  set
• 13:34
  back
• 13:34
  their
• 13:34
  strategic
• 13:35
  position
• 13:35
  a
• 13:35
  lot
• 13:35
  of
• 13:35
  different
• 13:36
  ways.
• 13:37
  So
• 13:37
  that
• 13:37
  is
• 13:38
  something
• 13:38
  that
• 13:38
  is
• 13:39
  currently
• 13:39
  ongoing.
• 13:40
  Now,
• 13:40
  Russia
• 13:40
  is
• 13:40
  making
• 13:41
  modest
• 13:41
  gains
• 13:42
  in
• 13:42
  the
• 13:42
  eastern
• 13:43
  front.
• 13:43
  That
• 13:43
  seems
• 13:44
  to
• 13:44
  be
• 13:44
  slowing
• 13:44
  down
• 13:44
  a
• 13:45
  bit.
• 13:45
  And
• 13:45
  keep
• 13:45
  in
• 13:45
  mind
• 13:46
  winter
• 13:46
  is
• 13:46
  coming,
• 13:47
  so
• 13:47
  that
• 13:47
  may
• 13:47
  slow
• 13:47
  down
• 13:48
  more.
• 13:48
  Also,
• 13:49
  Ukraine
• 13:49
  got
• 13:50
  some
• 13:50
  very
• 13:51
  good
• 13:51
  drone
• 13:51
  strikes,
• 13:52
  caused
• 13:52
  some
• 13:52
  major
• 13:53
  damage
• 13:54
  at
• 13:54
  russian
• 13:54
  arms
• 13:55
  depots,
• 13:55
  and
• 13:56
  literally,
• 13:57
  from
• 13:57
  what
• 13:57
  they
• 13:57
  could
• 13:57
  figure
• 13:58
  out,
• 13:58
  took
• 13:58
  out
• 13:59
  a
• 13:59
  couple
• 13:59
  of
• 13:59
  months
• 14:00
  worth
• 14:00
  of
• 14:00
  artillery
• 14:01
  shells,
• 14:02
  much
• 14:02
  of
• 14:02
  that
• 14:02
  supplied
• 14:03
  by
• 14:03
  North
• 14:03
  Korea.
• 14:04
  And
• 14:04
  so
• 14:04
  everyone's
• 14:05
  kind
• 14:05
  of
• 14:05
  waiting
• 14:05
  to
• 14:06
  see
• 14:06
  if
• 14:06
  the
• 14:07
  artillery
• 14:07
  tempo,
• 14:08
  if
• 14:08
  you
• 14:08
  will,
• 14:09
  the
• 14:09
  usage
• 14:10
  rate
• 14:10
  of
• 14:10
  artillery
• 14:10
  shells
• 14:11
  by
• 14:11
  the
• 14:11
  Russians
• 14:12
  starts
• 14:12
  to
• 14:12
  diminish
• 14:13
  going
• 14:13
  forward.
• 14:14
  And
• 14:14
  that's
• 14:14
  a
• 14:14
  very
• 14:14
  significant
• 14:15
  possibility.
• 14:16
  If
• 14:16
  that
• 14:16
  happens,
• 14:16
  the
• 14:17
  Russians
• 14:17
  are
• 14:17
  going
• 14:17
  to
• 14:17
  have
• 14:17
  some
• 14:18
  serious
• 14:18
  problems.
• 14:19
  Of
• 14:19
  course,
• 14:19
  the
• 14:19
  Ukrainians
• 14:20
  went
• 14:20
  up
• 14:20
  into
• 14:21
  Kursk
• 14:22
  Oblast,
• 14:23
  which
• 14:23
  is
• 14:23
  a
• 14:23
  russian
• 14:24
  province,
• 14:24
  if
• 14:24
  you
• 14:24
  will,
• 14:25
  north
• 14:25
  the
• 14:25
  ukrainian
• 14:26
  border,
• 14:26
  and
• 14:26
  they
• 14:27
  seem
• 14:27
  to
• 14:27
  be
• 14:27
  pretty
• 14:27
  much
• 14:27
  holding
• 14:28
  their
• 14:28
  own
• 14:28
  there.
• 14:28
  The
• 14:28
  Russians
• 14:28
  have
• 14:29
  tried
• 14:29
  counterattacks.
• 14:30
  There's
• 14:30
  some
• 14:30
  areas
• 14:31
  where
• 14:31
  the
• 14:31
  Russians
• 14:31
  made
• 14:31
  some
• 14:32
  progress,
• 14:32
  but
• 14:32
  those
• 14:32
  are
• 14:33
  areas
• 14:33
  where
• 14:33
  I
• 14:33
  don't
• 14:33
  think
• 14:33
  the
• 14:33
  Ukrainians
• 14:34
  had
• 14:34
  any
• 14:34
  intention
• 14:34
  of
• 14:35
  holding
• 14:35
  those
• 14:36
  areas.
• 14:36
  They
• 14:36
  simply
• 14:36
  traded
• 14:37
  terrain
• 14:37
  in
• 14:37
  order
• 14:37
  to
• 14:38
  inflict
• 14:38
  a
• 14:38
  lot
• 14:38
  of
• 14:38
  casualties,
• 14:39
  a
• 14:39
  lot
• 14:39
  of
• 14:39
  attrition
• 14:40
  on
• 14:40
  the
• 14:40
  russian
• 14:40
  forces.
• 14:41
  And
• 14:41
  in
• 14:41
  one
• 14:41
  famous
• 14:42
  case,
• 14:42
  the
• 14:42
  Russians
• 14:42
  actually
• 14:43
  had
• 14:43
  one
• 14:43
  of
• 14:43
  their
• 14:44
  own
• 14:44
  armored
• 14:45
  company,
• 14:45
  plus
• 14:46
  battalion
• 14:46
  sized
• 14:46
  units
• 14:47
  rolled
• 14:48
  into
• 14:48
  and
• 14:48
  got
• 14:49
  caught
• 14:49
  in
• 14:49
  an
• 14:50
  old
• 14:50
  russian
• 14:51
  obstacle
• 14:51
  belt,
• 14:51
  one
• 14:52
  that
• 14:52
  they
• 14:52
  had
• 14:52
  built
• 14:52
  before
• 14:53
  the
• 14:53
  Ukrainians
• 14:54
  went
• 14:54
  up
• 14:54
  to
• 14:54
  Kursk
• 14:55
  that
• 14:55
  was
• 14:55
  supposed
• 14:55
  to
• 14:55
  keep
• 14:56
  the
• 14:56
  Ukrainians
• 14:56
  out.
• 14:57
  Didn't
• 14:57
  do
• 14:57
  that.
• 14:57
  But
• 14:57
  the
• 14:58
  Russians
• 14:58
  attacked
• 14:58
  and
• 14:58
  went
• 14:59
  into
• 14:59
  their
• 14:59
  own
• 14:59
  obstacle
• 14:59
  belt,
• 15:00
  got
• 15:00
  stuck,
• 15:01
  and
• 15:01
  then
• 15:01
  the
• 15:01
  Ukrainians
• 15:01
  were
• 15:02
  able
• 15:02
  to
• 15:02
  cause
• 15:03
  heavy
• 15:03
  attrition
• 15:03
  on
• 15:03
  their
• 15:03
  forces.
• 15:04
  So
• 15:04
  very
• 15:05
  interesting.
• 15:05
  What's
• 15:05
  going
• 15:05
  on
• 15:06
  with
• 15:06
  that
• 15:06
  across
• 15:07
  the
• 15:07
  board.
• 15:07
  And.
• 15:08
  And
• 15:08
  then,
• 15:08
  of
• 15:08
  course,
• 15:08
  we're
• 15:09
  also
• 15:09
  seeing
• 15:09
  some
• 15:09
  things
• 15:10
  happening
• 15:10
  in
• 15:10
  Europe.
• 15:11
  Hungary.
• 15:11
  The
• 15:12
  political
• 15:12
  director
• 15:13
  under
• 15:13
  Orban
• 15:14
  came
• 15:14
  out
• 15:14
  and
• 15:14
  said
• 15:15
  something
• 15:15
  rather
• 15:15
  interesting
• 15:16
  that
• 15:16
  he
• 15:16
  was
• 15:16
  talking
• 15:17
  about.
• 15:17
  Basically
• 15:18
  said,
• 15:18
  you
• 15:18
  know,
• 15:19
  Ukraine
• 15:20
  got
• 15:20
  into
• 15:20
  this
• 15:20
  problem
• 15:21
  because
• 15:21
  they
• 15:22
  didn't
• 15:22
  let
• 15:22
  the
• 15:22
  Russians
• 15:22
  basically
• 15:23
  invade
• 15:23
  and
• 15:23
  take
• 15:23
  over
• 15:24
  their
• 15:24
  country.
• 15:24
  And
• 15:24
  he
• 15:25
  was
• 15:25
  saying
• 15:25
  that
• 15:25
  things
• 15:25
  probably
• 15:26
  would
• 15:26
  have
• 15:26
  been
• 15:26
  better
• 15:26
  in
• 15:26
  Hungary
• 15:27
  if
• 15:27
  they
• 15:27
  hadn't
• 15:28
  opposed
• 15:28
  the
• 15:29
  russian
• 15:29
  invasion
• 15:29
  in
• 15:29
  1956.
• 15:30
  Just
• 15:31
  the
• 15:31
  weirdest
• 15:31
  stuff.
• 15:32
  And
• 15:32
  Orban,
• 15:32
  look,
• 15:33
  he's
• 15:33
  somewhat
• 15:33
  pro
• 15:34
  Putin,
• 15:34
  if
• 15:34
  you
• 15:34
  will.
• 15:34
  He
• 15:34
  has
• 15:34
  a
• 15:35
  close
• 15:35
  relationship
• 15:35
  with
• 15:35
  pro
• 15:36
  Putin.
• 15:36
  It's
• 15:36
  been
• 15:36
  a
• 15:36
  thorn
• 15:37
  in
• 15:37
  the
• 15:37
  side
• 15:37
  of
• 15:38
  not
• 15:38
  just
• 15:38
  NATO,
• 15:39
  but
• 15:39
  the
• 15:39
  European
• 15:39
  Union.
• 15:40
  But
• 15:40
  even
• 15:41
  Orban
• 15:41
  was
• 15:42
  quick
• 15:42
  to
• 15:42
  recognize
• 15:42
  that
• 15:43
  this
• 15:43
  was
• 15:43
  just
• 15:44
  too
• 15:44
  much.
• 15:44
  There
• 15:44
  were
• 15:45
  calls
• 15:45
  for
• 15:45
  the.
• 15:45
  Certainly
• 15:46
  for
• 15:46
  him
• 15:46
  to
• 15:46
  fire
• 15:47
  that
• 15:47
  political
• 15:47
  director.
• 15:48
  It
• 15:48
  was
• 15:48
  a
• 15:48
  very
• 15:48
  strange
• 15:49
  situation,
• 15:49
  but
• 15:50
  it
• 15:50
  did
• 15:50
  happen
• 15:51
  and
• 15:51
  coincide
• 15:52
  was
• 15:52
  something
• 15:52
  similar
• 15:53
  in
• 15:53
  Georgia.
• 15:54
  And
• 15:54
  I
• 15:54
  was
• 15:54
  surprised
• 15:54
  that
• 15:55
  this
• 15:55
  wasn't
• 15:55
  really
• 15:55
  connected
• 15:56
  to
• 15:56
  the
• 15:56
  news
• 15:56
  in
• 15:57
  Georgia.
• 15:57
  And
• 15:57
  I'm
• 15:58
  not
• 15:58
  talking
• 15:58
  about
• 15:58
  the
• 15:59
  one
• 15:59
  in
• 15:59
  the
• 15:59
  southeastern
• 16:00
  United
• 16:00
  States.
• 16:00
  I'm
• 16:00
  talking
• 16:00
  about
• 16:01
  Georgia,
• 16:01
  former
• 16:02
  soviet
• 16:02
  republic.
• 16:03
  They
• 16:03
  had
• 16:03
  a
• 16:04
  sign,
• 16:04
  road
• 16:05
  signs
• 16:05
  put
• 16:05
  up
• 16:05
  by
• 16:06
  the
• 16:06
  leading
• 16:06
  political
• 16:07
  party
• 16:07
  there,
• 16:07
  which
• 16:08
  is
• 16:08
  ostensibly,
• 16:09
  shall
• 16:09
  we
• 16:09
  say,
• 16:10
  leaning
• 16:10
  towards
• 16:11
  Russia.
• 16:11
  Pro
• 16:12
  Putin.
• 16:12
  Pro
• 16:12
  Russia
• 16:13
  in
• 16:13
  a
• 16:13
  lot
• 16:13
  of
• 16:13
  ways,
• 16:14
  which
• 16:14
  has
• 16:14
  really
• 16:15
  caused
• 16:15
  problems
• 16:15
  with
• 16:16
  pro
• 16:16
  democracy
• 16:17
  movement
• 16:17
  and
• 16:17
  the
• 16:17
  other
• 16:18
  political
• 16:18
  parties
• 16:19
  in
• 16:19
  Georgia.
• 16:20
  Well,
• 16:20
  they
• 16:20
  put
• 16:20
  this
• 16:20
  sign
• 16:21
  up
• 16:21
  showing
• 16:21
  a
• 16:22
  devastated
• 16:22
  area
• 16:23
  of
• 16:23
  Ukraine,
• 16:24
  and
• 16:24
  kind
• 16:24
  of
• 16:24
  in
• 16:24
  the
• 16:25
  same
• 16:25
  way
• 16:25
  they
• 16:25
  were
• 16:26
  saying,
• 16:26
  look,
• 16:26
  Georgia
• 16:27
  shouldn't
• 16:27
  have
• 16:28
  opposed
• 16:28
  russian
• 16:29
  invasion,
• 16:29
  where
• 16:30
  Russia
• 16:30
  went
• 16:30
  in
• 16:30
  and
• 16:31
  took
• 16:31
  a
• 16:31
  couple
• 16:31
  of
• 16:32
  oblast
• 16:32
  or
• 16:32
  province
• 16:33
  areas
• 16:33
  in
• 16:34
  northern
• 16:34
  Georgia.
• 16:35
  It
• 16:35
  was
• 16:35
  interesting
• 16:36
  to
• 16:36
  see
• 16:36
  that
• 16:37
  and
• 16:37
  then
• 16:37
  juxtapose
• 16:38
  that
• 16:38
  against
• 16:38
  what
• 16:39
  was
• 16:39
  just
• 16:39
  said
• 16:39
  in
• 16:39
  Hungary.
• 16:40
  It
• 16:40
  appears
• 16:41
  to
• 16:41
  look
• 16:41
  like
• 16:41
  a
• 16:42
  coordinated
• 16:42
  russian
• 16:43
  disinformation
• 16:44
  or
• 16:44
  information
• 16:45
  operation,
• 16:46
  a
• 16:46
  coordinated
• 16:47
  narrative
• 16:47
  of
• 16:48
  basically
• 16:48
  trying
• 16:48
  to
• 16:48
  push
• 16:48
  the
• 16:49
  idea
• 16:49
  that
• 16:49
  you
• 16:49
  shouldn't
• 16:50
  resist
• 16:50
  russian
• 16:50
  invasions.
• 16:51
  Very
• 16:51
  strange
• 16:52
  thing.
• 16:52
  Of
• 16:52
  course,
• 16:53
  the
• 16:53
  hope
• 16:53
  was
• 16:54
  that
• 16:54
  Georgia
• 16:55
  would
• 16:55
  eventually
• 16:55
  become
• 16:55
  a
• 16:56
  member
• 16:56
  of
• 16:56
  the
• 16:56
  European
• 16:57
  Union
• 16:57
  and
• 16:57
  NATO.
• 16:58
  That's
• 16:58
  not
• 16:58
  happening
• 16:58
  anytime
• 16:59
  soon,
• 16:59
  obviously,
• 17:00
  with
• 17:00
  at
• 17:00
  least
• 17:00
  in
• 17:01
  the
• 17:01
  current
• 17:01
  political
• 17:01
  environment.
• 17:02
  And
• 17:02
  of
• 17:02
  course,
• 17:02
  Hungary
• 17:03
  or
• 17:04
  bond
• 17:04
  is
• 17:04
  going
• 17:04
  to
• 17:04
  have
• 17:04
  to
• 17:04
  try
• 17:04
  and
• 17:04
  figure
• 17:05
  out
• 17:05
  some
• 17:05
  way
• 17:05
  to
• 17:05
  fix
• 17:05
  this.
• 17:06
  Another
• 17:06
  issue
• 17:06
  going
• 17:07
  on
• 17:07
  around
• 17:07
  the
• 17:07
  world
• 17:08
  is
• 17:08
  dark
• 17:08
  tankers,
• 17:09
  fears
• 17:09
  of
• 17:10
  these
• 17:10
  poorly
• 17:11
  maintained
• 17:11
  tankers
• 17:12
  in
• 17:12
  the
• 17:12
  Baltic,
• 17:13
  in
• 17:13
  Asia,
• 17:14
  the
• 17:14
  Quad,
• 17:14
  Japan,
• 17:15
  India,
• 17:16
  Australia.
• 17:16
  The
• 17:17
  US
• 17:17
  is
• 17:17
  still
• 17:18
  informal
• 17:18
  relationship,
• 17:19
  but
• 17:19
  getting
• 17:19
  stronger.
• 17:20
  And
• 17:20
  there's
• 17:20
  now
• 17:21
  major,
• 17:21
  major
• 17:22
  multinational
• 17:23
  western
• 17:24
  US
• 17:24
  US
• 17:24
  is
• 17:25
  involved
• 17:25
  exercise
• 17:26
  going
• 17:26
  on
• 17:26
  there.
• 17:27
  At
• 17:27
  the
• 17:27
  same
• 17:27
  time,
• 17:28
  China's
• 17:28
  put
• 17:28
  out
• 17:28
  a
• 17:28
  major
• 17:28
  exercise
• 17:29
  in
• 17:29
  the
• 17:29
  area,
• 17:29
  and
• 17:30
  there's
• 17:30
  still
• 17:30
  tremendous
• 17:31
  tension
• 17:31
  in
• 17:31
  that
• 17:32
  area.
• 17:32
  In
• 17:32
  Sudan,
• 17:33
  civil
• 17:33
  war
• 17:34
  in
• 17:34
  Africa.
• 17:34
  We've
• 17:35
  seen
• 17:35
  the
• 17:36
  government
• 17:36
  forces
• 17:37
  actually
• 17:37
  moving
• 17:37
  into
• 17:37
  Khartoum
• 17:38
  to
• 17:38
  take
• 17:38
  some
• 17:39
  forces
• 17:39
  away
• 17:39
  from
• 17:39
  the
• 17:40
  anti
• 17:40
  government
• 17:41
  militias.
• 17:41
  And
• 17:42
  then,
• 17:42
  of
• 17:42
  course,
• 17:43
  the
• 17:43
  interesting
• 17:43
  thing,
• 17:44
  and
• 17:44
  this
• 17:44
  is,
• 17:44
  I'm
• 17:44
  going
• 17:44
  to
• 17:44
  kind
• 17:44
  of
• 17:45
  finish
• 17:45
  with
• 17:45
  this.
• 17:45
  I
• 17:46
  spent
• 17:46
  some
• 17:46
  quality
• 17:46
  time
• 17:47
  back
• 17:47
  in
• 17:48
  the
• 17:48
  eighties
• 17:48
  stationed
• 17:48
  on
• 17:49
  a
• 17:49
  little
• 17:49
  island,
• 17:49
  or
• 17:50
  I
• 17:50
  should
• 17:50
  say
• 17:50
  archipelago,
• 17:51
  a
• 17:51
  toll,
• 17:51
  if
• 17:52
  you
• 17:52
  will,
• 17:52
  in
• 17:52
  the
• 17:52
  Indian
• 17:53
  Ocean
• 17:53
  called
• 17:53
  Diego
• 17:53
  Garcia,
• 17:54
  and
• 17:54
  it
• 17:55
  is
• 17:55
  a
• 17:56
  british
• 17:56
  overseas
• 17:57
  territory.
• 17:58
  We
• 17:58
  have
• 17:58
  a
• 17:58
  very
• 17:58
  large
• 17:59
  or
• 17:59
  significant
• 18:00
  us
• 18:00
  military
• 18:00
  presence
• 18:01
  there,
• 18:01
  strategic
• 18:02
  presence
• 18:02
  there.
• 18:02
  However,
• 18:03
  it
• 18:03
  is
• 18:04
  part
• 18:04
  of
• 18:04
  the
• 18:04
  Mauritius
• 18:05
  chain
• 18:05
  of
• 18:05
  islands
• 18:06
  and
• 18:06
  Mauritius
• 18:06
  has
• 18:06
  always
• 18:07
  claimed
• 18:07
  that
• 18:07
  it
• 18:07
  is
• 18:07
  part
• 18:08
  of
• 18:08
  their
• 18:08
  sovereign
• 18:08
  territory.
• 18:09
  Well,
• 18:10
  they
• 18:10
  just
• 18:10
  reached
• 18:10
  an
• 18:10
  agreement.
• 18:11
  Great
• 18:11
  Britain
• 18:12
  is
• 18:12
  going
• 18:12
  to
• 18:12
  hand
• 18:12
  over
• 18:13
  sovereignty
• 18:14
  to
• 18:14
  Mauritius.
• 18:14
  In
• 18:15
  exchange
• 18:15
  for
• 18:15
  that,
• 18:15
  Mauritius
• 18:16
  going
• 18:16
  to
• 18:16
  provide
• 18:16
  a
• 18:17
  long
• 18:17
  term
• 18:17
  agreement
• 18:18
  on
• 18:18
  allowing
• 18:18
  that
• 18:19
  base
• 18:19
  to
• 18:19
  continue.
• 18:20
  But
• 18:20
  the
• 18:20
  rule
• 18:21
  of
• 18:21
  unintended
• 18:21
  consequences.
• 18:22
  Argentina
• 18:23
  is
• 18:23
  looking
• 18:23
  at
• 18:23
  this
• 18:23
  saying,
• 18:24
  hey,
• 18:24
  we've
• 18:25
  been
• 18:25
  saying
• 18:25
  the
• 18:25
  same
• 18:25
  thing
• 18:25
  about
• 18:26
  the
• 18:26
  Falklands,
• 18:26
  which
• 18:27
  they
• 18:27
  call
• 18:27
  the
• 18:27
  Malvinas
• 18:28
  for
• 18:28
  quite
• 18:28
  some
• 18:29
  time.
• 18:29
  And
• 18:29
  you
• 18:29
  may
• 18:29
  recall
• 18:29
  in
• 18:29
  the
• 18:30
  early
• 18:30
  eighties,
• 18:30
  they
• 18:30
  actually
• 18:31
  did
• 18:31
  a
• 18:31
  big
• 18:31
  military
• 18:32
  operation
• 18:32
  to
• 18:32
  try
• 18:32
  and
• 18:32
  take
• 18:32
  the
• 18:32
  Falklands
• 18:33
  and
• 18:33
  the
• 18:33
  Brits
• 18:33
  took
• 18:34
  it
• 18:34
  back.
• 18:34
  But
• 18:34
  now
• 18:35
  that's
• 18:35
  raising
• 18:35
  the
• 18:35
  issue
• 18:35
  of
• 18:36
  british
• 18:36
  overseas
• 18:36
  territories.
• 18:37
  And
• 18:37
  Argentina,
• 18:38
  this
• 18:39
  is
• 18:39
  becoming
• 18:39
  part
• 18:39
  of
• 18:39
  the
• 18:40
  current
• 18:40
  thing
• 18:40
  we're
• 18:40
  seeing
• 18:40
  down
• 18:41
  South
• 18:41
  America,
• 18:42
  talking
• 18:42
  about
• 18:42
  the
• 18:42
  Falklands.
• 18:43
  I
• 18:43
  don't
• 18:43
  think
• 18:43
  this
• 18:44
  will
• 18:44
  lead
• 18:44
  to
• 18:44
  another
• 18:44
  Falklands
• 18:45
  war,
• 18:45
  but
• 18:45
  it
• 18:46
  is
• 18:46
  certainly
• 18:46
  fascinating
• 18:47
  situation
• 18:47
  that
• 18:48
  is
• 18:48
  a
• 18:48
  quick
• 18:48
  run
• 18:49
  around
• 18:49
  the
• 18:49
  world.
• 18:49
  Talk
• 18:50
  about
• 18:50
  supply
• 18:51
  chains,
• 18:51
  oil,
• 18:52
  gas,
• 18:52
  a
• 18:53
  variety
• 18:53
  of
• 18:53
  different
• 18:53
  things.
• 18:53
  Certainly
• 18:54
  a
• 18:54
  very
• 18:54
  different
• 18:54
  format,
• 18:55
  I
• 18:55
  think,
• 18:56
  from
• 18:56
  what
• 18:56
  Mark
• 18:56
  and
• 18:57
  I
• 18:57
  used
• 18:57
  to
• 18:57
  talk
• 18:57
  about,
• 18:58
  although
• 18:58
  every
• 18:58
  single
• 18:59
  day
• 18:59
  I
• 18:59
  wish
• 19:00
  Mark
• 19:00
  and
• 19:00
  was
• 19:00
  here
• 19:01
  and
• 19:01
  we
• 19:01
  could
• 19:01
  continue
• 19:02
  to
• 19:02
  talk
• 19:02
  about
• 19:02
  what
• 19:02
  we
• 19:03
  talk
• 19:03
  about,
• 19:03
  but
• 19:04
  strat
• 19:04
  is
• 19:04
  continuing.
• 19:05
  I
• 19:05
  hope
• 19:05
  you
• 19:06
  enjoyed
• 19:06
  this
• 19:06
  podcast
• 19:07
  and
• 19:07
  I
• 19:07
  am
• 19:08
  certainly
• 19:08
  looking
• 19:08
  forward
• 19:09
  to
• 19:10
  whatever
• 19:10
  happens
• 19:10
  going
• 19:11
  forward.
• 19:11
  And
• 19:11
  I
• 19:11
  will
• 19:12
  try
• 19:12
  and
• 19:12
  do
• 19:12
  these
• 19:12
  on
• 19:12
  a
• 19:12
  regular
• 19:13
  basis
• 19:13
  where
• 19:13
  I
• 19:13
  basically
• 19:14
  just
• 19:14
  go
• 19:14
  through
• 19:15
  and
• 19:15
  talk
• 19:15
  about
• 19:16
  these
• 19:16
  things,
• 19:16
  talk
• 19:17
  about
• 19:17
  what's
• 19:17
  happening
• 19:17
  around
• 19:17
  the
• 19:18
  world
• 19:18
  and
• 19:18
  try
• 19:18
  to
• 19:18
  connect
• 19:18
  some
• 19:19
  dots,
• 19:19
  if
• 19:19
  you
• 19:19
  will,
• 19:20
  and
• 19:20
  try
• 19:20
  to
• 19:20
  put
• 19:20
  some
• 19:20
  perspective
• 19:21
  on
• 19:21
  it
• 19:21
  and
• 19:22
  not
• 19:22
  ignore
• 19:23
  things
• 19:23
  that
• 19:24
  unfortunately,
• 19:25
  in
• 19:25
  broadcast
• 19:26
  news,
• 19:26
  there's
• 19:26
  a
• 19:27
  lot
• 19:27
  of
• 19:27
  stuff
• 19:27
  that
• 19:27
  just
• 19:27
  can't
• 19:28
  be
• 19:28
  addressed.
• 19:28
  And
• 19:29
  part
• 19:29
  of
• 19:29
  Strat
• 19:30
  is
• 19:30
  to
• 19:30
  address
• 19:30
  some
• 19:31
  of
• 19:31
  those
• 19:31
  issues
• 19:31
  that
• 19:32
  maybe
• 19:32
  don't
• 19:32
  get
• 19:32
  enough
• 19:32
  of
• 19:33
  a
• 19:33
  look
• 19:33
  or
• 19:33
  don't
• 19:33
  get
• 19:34
  a
• 19:34
  look
• 19:34
  at
• 19:34
  all.
• 19:34
  And
• 19:34
  the
• 19:35
  dominant
• 19:35
  mainstream
• 19:36
  media.
• 19:36
  So
• 19:37
  thank
• 19:37
  you
• 19:37
  very
• 19:37
  much.
• 19:38
  STRAT,
• 19:39
  where
• 19:39
  local
• 19:39
  friends
• 19:40
  unfold
• 19:40
  with
• 19:41
  Hal
• 19:41
  Kempfer,
• 19:41
  braving
• 19:42
  stories
• 19:42
  fold
• 19:43
  from
• 19:43
  their
• 19:43
  speed
• 19:43
  onage
• 19:44
  to
• 19:44
  economic
• 19:45
  might
• 19:46
  king
• 19:46
  perspective
• 19:47
  see
• 19:47
  the
• 19:47
  light?
• 19:48
  Every
• 19:48
  week
• 19:49
  across
• 19:50
  the
• 19:50
  globe,
• 19:50
  we
• 19:50
  spin
• 19:51
  to
• 19:52
  coding
• 19:52
  gray
• 19:53
  zones
• 19:53
  where
• 19:54
  battles
• 19:54
  often
• 19:55
  begin.