Latest / Trumponomics / Episode 3: Will You Get a Raise This Year?

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Episode 3: Will You Get a Raise This Year? · Trumponomics

0:00
Speaker 1: Okay, let's shake it um. Will Americans get a raise
0:05
Speaker 1: this year? Oh God? Welcome back to the Bloomberg Benchmark podcast.
0:17
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Tory Stillwell and economics reporter with Bloomberg
0:21
Speaker 1: News in DC, and I am joined by my colleagues
0:24
Speaker 1: and co hosts Dan Moss, who is our executive editor
0:27
Speaker 1: in d C, and Ako, our editor for Benchmark, who's
0:32
Speaker 1: been upgrooded to a co hot Yeah, and she's visiting DC,
0:37
Speaker 1: so we're all in one room. Okay. For those of
0:41
Speaker 1: you tuning in for the first time, Benchmark is a
0:44
Speaker 1: podcast about numbers, but much more about the ideas that
0:47
Speaker 1: drive the global economy. Told you in the least boring
0:51
Speaker 1: way possible. Be sure to check out our inaugural episode
0:55
Speaker 1: we released last week, the US economy Silent Menace about
0:59
Speaker 1: the slow down in productivity, and our bonus show on
1:03
Speaker 1: the market to malt in China that we released just
1:06
Speaker 1: the other day. We are recording this on Wednesday, September six,
1:10
Speaker 1: which is the day before probably the most important Federal
1:14
Speaker 1: Reserve announcement in years? Dan, is that an exaggeration? I
1:19
Speaker 1: don't think it's an exaggeration. At least half the economists
1:22
Speaker 1: we've surveyed predict an interest rate increase that will be
1:25
Speaker 1: the first in almost a decade. Yeah, so they're saying
1:28
Speaker 1: we're predicting it at you know, the one plus economists
1:32
Speaker 1: that we've surveyed at Bloomberg are very evenly split on this,
1:36
Speaker 1: with a slight lean toward the Fed not hiking interest rates. So, Toria,
1:41
Speaker 1: would you care to give us a prediction? Um, Because
1:43
Speaker 1: by the time our listeners here this podcast, we will
1:47
Speaker 1: all know whether the Fed did or didn't do it, right,
1:50
Speaker 1: So I think we're kind of well versed on why.
1:53
Speaker 1: It's a pretty close call. You know, the labor market
1:56
Speaker 1: has been getting better, but inflation is sort of not
2:00
Speaker 1: anywhere close to the Fed's target. Um. And you've got
2:03
Speaker 1: all this market up. All right, Tori, stop past there
2:07
Speaker 1: is your answer my call. I think that they will
2:10
Speaker 1: not go all right? What about you? Then? Well, in
2:14
Speaker 1: the don't column, we have financial markets, which some have
2:18
Speaker 1: described as volatile recently. We've got the global economy. We've
2:22
Speaker 1: got inflation which is nowhere near their target, and inflation
2:25
Speaker 1: expectations which are drifting down, and a thing called the
2:30
Speaker 1: balance of risks. They say that data dependent, but that
2:34
Speaker 1: could also mean, what is the risk to the outlook
2:37
Speaker 1: for the data? So what's your call, Tory, You've got
2:41
Speaker 1: something there in front of you. Your call first, Okay,
2:48
Speaker 1: for our listeners out there, my call is that the
2:50
Speaker 1: FED will go. So it's pretty close and we're thinking
2:55
Speaker 1: about this, like, how can we get a definitive answer? Um.
2:58
Speaker 1: I don't know if any of you are out there
3:00
Speaker 1: ever had a magic eight ball as kids, but I did,
3:04
Speaker 1: and it's how I solved all of my problems basically.
3:08
Speaker 1: So we ran out, made a target run yesterday after
3:12
Speaker 1: work and got a magic eight ball. We're going to
3:15
Speaker 1: shake in and find out. Yeah, all right, let's do it.
3:18
Speaker 1: Will the FED raise interest rates? And it's September gathering?
3:23
Speaker 1: The answer is, oh, oh tell us. My sources say no. Wow.
3:30
Speaker 1: All right, well, you know we look forward to actually
3:34
Speaker 1: getting the answer to that. Onto today's Business run. Yeah yeah, yeah,
3:38
Speaker 1: it's pretty related. Yeah. Um, we're gonna be talking about
3:42
Speaker 1: something very related about paychecks, which also is one of
3:46
Speaker 1: my favorite topics because I like getting paid. Um, we'll
3:50
Speaker 1: be talking about my paycheck and your paycheck and everyone's
3:53
Speaker 1: paycheck in America. What's been happening to it and what
3:56
Speaker 1: will happen to it over the next few years. For
4:00
Speaker 1: our listeners out there. Dan is a bazillion levels above
4:04
Speaker 1: me and Tori, so you might have some special insight
4:07
Speaker 1: into my specific paycheck. So let's just say I would
4:10
Speaker 1: absolutely love a raise. Yeah, this won't be awkward at all.
4:16
Speaker 1: Dan is smiling, he's not comment he's not touching this
4:22
Speaker 1: white for the year end. Hopefully I will get a raise. Um,
4:27
Speaker 1: let's let's get to it. Tori set the stage for
4:30
Speaker 1: us here. What's been happening to paychecks in America? So
4:34
Speaker 1: I think just as ascinctly as possible, we can say
4:37
Speaker 1: paychecks don't look great right now. You know, we're in
4:41
Speaker 1: our seventh year of economic recovery and wages are stagnant.
4:46
Speaker 1: They aren't really improving, especially at the rate that you
4:49
Speaker 1: would expect with a decent clip of payroll growth that
4:53
Speaker 1: we've been seeing, you know, with people getting jobs, with
4:56
Speaker 1: things just generally improving, with sectors of the economy coming back,
5:00
Speaker 1: would expect people's paychecks about back to and that's just
5:02
Speaker 1: not happening. So well, when you say they're not moving,
5:06
Speaker 1: I mean, are you really saying this that the numbers
5:09
Speaker 1: when they come out every month and every quarter are
5:11
Speaker 1: saying zero zero, zero zero. What do you mean by that? Well,
5:14
Speaker 1: let me let me break down the numbers for you.
5:16
Speaker 1: So we look at and I would say most economists
5:20
Speaker 1: look at the average hourly earnings figures from the Labor Department.
5:24
Speaker 1: This comes out every month right right with the employment report.
5:27
Speaker 1: It's probably the most widely watched gauge that tells us
5:31
Speaker 1: that in August hourly earnings grew two point two percent
5:35
Speaker 1: from the year before. So the average for the entire recovery,
5:40
Speaker 1: which started in June two thousand nine, is two percent.
5:43
Speaker 1: So we're right there with the average. There's been basically
5:47
Speaker 1: no pick up at all. And what normal is economists
5:51
Speaker 1: have indicated is somewhere around three to four percent the
5:55
Speaker 1: historical norm, right exactly. So we're not anywhere close where
5:59
Speaker 1: we used to be. That's what. Let me just pull
6:01
Speaker 1: you up on that one. I mean, the economy has
6:04
Speaker 1: been growing on average between two to three for that
6:08
Speaker 1: period of time. So does the figure that you're describing
6:11
Speaker 1: really seen that out of whack? Now? Granted, you know,
6:14
Speaker 1: compared with the nineties or the early odds, it's certainly
6:18
Speaker 1: not up there, but the expansion is not up there
6:22
Speaker 1: with the nineties or the early odds either, So it
6:25
Speaker 1: was really that bad. Well, let me give you more data,
6:29
Speaker 1: and this is coming from the Census Bureaus Report on
6:32
Speaker 1: Income and Poverty, which just came out this morning. Basically,
6:36
Speaker 1: what that told us is that median household income is
6:39
Speaker 1: still six point five percent lower than in two thousand
6:42
Speaker 1: and seven. So with GDP, if you just take the
6:44
Speaker 1: overall level of GDP, that number keeps going up and
6:47
Speaker 1: not enough. Right, the percent change may be different, but
6:50
Speaker 1: the level goes up. You would sort of expect income
6:53
Speaker 1: to do the same thing. Over time, our center a
6:55
Speaker 1: living increases, but that hasn't really been the case. We're
6:59
Speaker 1: still sort of following our way out of this hole
7:01
Speaker 1: that was created during the recession, and things just aren't
7:05
Speaker 1: as good as people would like them. So this is
7:07
Speaker 1: not just a sort of a feeling perception thing you're saying.
7:11
Speaker 1: This is grounded in real data exactly, And I think
7:15
Speaker 1: it's probably one of the reasons that people have felt
7:16
Speaker 1: like the recovery has been so lackbuster, pretty depressing stuff. So,
7:22
Speaker 1: you know, you said, this is a big mystery as
7:24
Speaker 1: to why this is happening. You know, the job markets
7:27
Speaker 1: doing pretty well now, but wages still aren't picking up.
7:32
Speaker 1: Give us a couple of theories as to why economists
7:36
Speaker 1: think this uh mystery exists. I mean, he said, used
7:41
Speaker 1: to be a reporter for the San Francisco FED. So
7:44
Speaker 1: the theory that's come out of that shop is I
7:46
Speaker 1: think one of the most intriguing, and I think you
7:49
Speaker 1: know that. Yeah. So it's called the pent up wage
7:52
Speaker 1: deflation theory, and it means, you know, back in the recession,
7:56
Speaker 1: the economy got really bad, so what companies really wanted
8:00
Speaker 1: to do was cut the wages of their existing employees.
8:04
Speaker 1: But there's kind of this like psychological barrier among employers
8:07
Speaker 1: as to actually dropping people's wages. They think it's like
8:10
Speaker 1: a big insult to actually cut someone's salary. So instead,
8:13
Speaker 1: what a lot of companies did was they kept it
8:15
Speaker 1: at zero um or a very small positive rate, and
8:21
Speaker 1: then instead waited and waited and waited and kept it
8:24
Speaker 1: at that very very low level until finally the economy
8:29
Speaker 1: caught up to the point where they can start um
8:32
Speaker 1: accelerating people's races. And one theory is that that point
8:36
Speaker 1: just hasn't come yet, that that demand hasn't picked up
8:39
Speaker 1: enough to get there, right, So there's still maybe a
8:43
Speaker 1: decent amount of slack out there that perhaps isn't being
8:46
Speaker 1: picked up by the unemployment rate, which is pretty low.
8:49
Speaker 1: It's at five point one percent, within the range that
8:51
Speaker 1: federal was there a policymakers consider full employment. But you know,
8:55
Speaker 1: we do have We've seen surveys when from the ft
8:57
Speaker 1: itself that show people are willing to work more hours
9:01
Speaker 1: at the same wage. They wouldn't even ask for a race.
9:03
Speaker 1: So that's a that's an example of slack. Maybe there
9:06
Speaker 1: are these people out there who are just willing to
9:08
Speaker 1: take jobs at whatever price they can get. Well, the
9:10
Speaker 1: economy has been growing since two thousand and nine. That
9:14
Speaker 1: may surprise many people, but nevertheless that's a fact act
9:20
Speaker 1: if not now when well we're waiting, Dan, I'm waiting,
9:27
Speaker 1: I am waiting. I mean. One of the other theories
9:30
Speaker 1: out there is that, you know, if our listeners have
9:32
Speaker 1: listened to our very first episode, they will know that
9:35
Speaker 1: productivity growth in the US has been very low. So
9:39
Speaker 1: that's right over the past few years. So you know,
9:42
Speaker 1: it could be that workers just don't quote unquote deserve
9:46
Speaker 1: a raise just because they haven't been adding as much
9:49
Speaker 1: value to the economy. And then there's also the theory
9:52
Speaker 1: that companies are substituting perks like unlimited vacation paid vacation Dan,
10:00
Speaker 1: please keep paid. Um, there's substituting those types of things
10:05
Speaker 1: for actual pay increases. So you know, people maybe getting
10:09
Speaker 1: these sorts of bonuses, but their actual salary may not
10:13
Speaker 1: be going up, right. So basically the truth is everyone's
10:17
Speaker 1: pretty stumped on this one. You know, econ when one
10:20
Speaker 1: tells you that as a supply of workers goes down,
10:23
Speaker 1: the price they can command should go up, that's not happening.
10:26
Speaker 1: It's one of the many ways that real life unfortunately
10:30
Speaker 1: doesn't adhere to our tidy theories in the economy. But
10:33
Speaker 1: you know, we started this episode with a very big question,
10:37
Speaker 1: will you get a raised this year? Tor? What's the answer?
10:41
Speaker 1: It's so disappointing. I would say the best answer is
10:45
Speaker 1: it depends And that's a frustrating answer for many people,
10:49
Speaker 1: but it really does. So one big thing that it
10:53
Speaker 1: depends on is your industry. And I think that this
10:55
Speaker 1: has been the case for wages wherever. It always depends
10:59
Speaker 1: on a specific job that you have. Exactly there's this
11:03
Speaker 1: thing called the Jolt survey, and that is Economics reporter
11:08
Speaker 1: shorthand for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey produced
11:12
Speaker 1: by the Labor Department. Now this might sound like a
11:14
Speaker 1: pretty obscure number. I mean, it sounds like something that
11:18
Speaker 1: happens when Magnus Outproducers sticks his fingers into the a
11:21
Speaker 1: pala socket. Tell us about this and why fed chair
11:28
Speaker 1: Yelling follows it so we can see, you know, how
11:31
Speaker 1: many people are quitting their jobs. We can see how
11:34
Speaker 1: many job openings there are. We can see what industries
11:37
Speaker 1: those openings are in, so we can see layoffs, other discharges.
11:42
Speaker 1: It's a it's a pretty important survey and it's one
11:44
Speaker 1: that fed chair Young follows closely. As you noted Dan.
11:47
Speaker 1: By the way, how many does she follow? A lot? Yeah,
11:50
Speaker 1: she's got a whole dashboard, tons, fall suitcase of them.
11:55
Speaker 1: So we looked at this survey to get an idea
11:58
Speaker 1: of how many unemployed aid workers are competing for each
12:02
Speaker 1: job opening in an industry. The idea is that if
12:06
Speaker 1: you've got fewer people out there that are competing for jobs,
12:10
Speaker 1: you know, employers have fewer people to pull from. They're
12:13
Speaker 1: going to have to start bidding up wages so they
12:15
Speaker 1: can either poach people or they can attract the best
12:19
Speaker 1: and brightest. So shall we dig in all right? So
12:23
Speaker 1: for the US, this ratio the number of unemployed people
12:26
Speaker 1: per opening is one point. For let's run through the industries.
12:32
Speaker 1: How do you get full tents of a person of
12:36
Speaker 1: these workers that are walking around the toulso does halfway?
12:42
Speaker 1: So looking at this is about the real world, not
12:45
Speaker 1: about numbers. But you're getting to the point getting and
12:48
Speaker 1: getting there. So looking at the industries and there you
12:52
Speaker 1: know associated ratios will go in order from the smallest largest.
12:57
Speaker 1: So with the smallest ratio we have financial activities, it's
13:01
Speaker 1: point six, and then from there we have professional business services,
13:05
Speaker 1: education and health services, information, retail and wholesale trade, and
13:12
Speaker 1: leisure and hospitality. All of these industries have ratios that
13:17
Speaker 1: are smaller than the US is overall. So these are
13:20
Speaker 1: the good industries to be in, right, if you want
13:22
Speaker 1: your wages to go up? Right, These industries are tighter
13:25
Speaker 1: than the overall US labor market, so there's going to
13:28
Speaker 1: be a little bit more competition in terms of employers
13:32
Speaker 1: and who they have to pick from and higher from.
13:34
Speaker 1: And then for those that have a little more slack,
13:37
Speaker 1: we have transportation and utilities, manufacturing and construction. So you
13:42
Speaker 1: is that these are all three of these are you know,
13:44
Speaker 1: really cyclical industries. They all got hurt pretty badly during
13:48
Speaker 1: the recession and they're all still trying to recover. So
13:51
Speaker 1: there are you know, companies have more people to choose from,
13:54
Speaker 1: So people who are in those industries have poor prospects
13:58
Speaker 1: for getting a raise this year relative to the others. Yeah,
14:01
Speaker 1: we'll hold on a second. What about the US manufacturing
14:04
Speaker 1: renaissance some of us have heard about. How come manufacturing
14:08
Speaker 1: really doesn't face you strongly here? I don't know about that.
14:11
Speaker 1: The manufacturing data has been pretty shaky lately. You know,
14:16
Speaker 1: the the US dollar has been appreciating and global growth
14:21
Speaker 1: hasn't been stellar either, So manufacturing and manufacturers in the
14:25
Speaker 1: US have been having a pretty hard time. So that
14:28
Speaker 1: we have something to do with it as well. Our
14:30
Speaker 1: colleagues show moved this really interesting story back a couple
14:34
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, based on report from the staffing firm
14:38
Speaker 1: UM Robert half and that showed that white collar workers
14:42
Speaker 1: are probably going to get a very big bit pay
14:45
Speaker 1: boost next year. UM they looked at starting salaries and
14:50
Speaker 1: they found that the numbers should be the best in
14:54
Speaker 1: eight years or something like that. So that's pretty exciting.
14:56
Speaker 1: If um, you have a professional job, you know, the
14:59
Speaker 1: best industry to be in right now is uh Surprise
15:03
Speaker 1: Surprise technology. So you know a lot of my friends
15:06
Speaker 1: in San Francisco will be very happy to hear this.
15:09
Speaker 1: For example, if you are a big data engineer, you
15:13
Speaker 1: could probably snag a starting pay of between a nine
15:16
Speaker 1: thousand and a half dollars to a hundred and eighty
15:21
Speaker 1: three thousand dollars, So that's a nine percent jump from
15:26
Speaker 1: That's a lot of money. And also if you're you know,
15:30
Speaker 1: an app developer or like a security analyst or like
15:34
Speaker 1: a ux specialist, you know, those are really good jobs
15:37
Speaker 1: to be in. Two so once again a great time
15:40
Speaker 1: to be in tech and also a pretty good time
15:43
Speaker 1: to be in very specialized roles like that. Well, that's
15:47
Speaker 1: very encouraging for those folks. I wonder if we ought
15:50
Speaker 1: to take a step back and you know, ask ourselves
15:54
Speaker 1: a different question. We've been asking why, why, why, why
15:59
Speaker 1: hasn't this up and why is this perception that it
16:01
Speaker 1: hasn't kicked in? Maybe we should be asking ourselves why not.
16:07
Speaker 1: Perhaps the answer lies in the absence of any real
16:11
Speaker 1: inflationary precious tour. You wrote about this just today. Yeah,
16:15
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm inclined to think that inflation provides a
16:18
Speaker 1: little bit of a silver lining here because inflation has
16:22
Speaker 1: been really subdued for a lot of the recovery. So
16:26
Speaker 1: that means that, you know, paychecks aren't going up a
16:28
Speaker 1: ton um, but at least inflation isn't either, So it's
16:33
Speaker 1: not like your entire paycheck, your entire race, i should say,
16:36
Speaker 1: is being eaten up by inflation. But you're right, if
16:39
Speaker 1: there's if there's lack of inflation in the US economy
16:43
Speaker 1: right now, you know, employers aren't sitting there being like, gosh,
16:46
Speaker 1: prices are rising so much, my employers are or my
16:48
Speaker 1: employees are about to revolt if I don't give them
16:51
Speaker 1: a race. So I don't have to. And in this
16:54
Speaker 1: story you published today, Cold Fed can thank Amazon Cuba
17:00
Speaker 1: a streak of inflation misses, you're actually posing the question
17:04
Speaker 1: of whether the technology that just praised as a potential
17:11
Speaker 1: raise bearer, if that's the word or the phrase to use,
17:15
Speaker 1: could it be working the other way as well, Aki,
17:17
Speaker 1: in terms of holding inflation down so some employers can site. Look,
17:22
Speaker 1: inflation is one one and a half percent, Why the
17:27
Speaker 1: heck do you need a rise? Right exactly? And I
17:30
Speaker 1: think this is really important to the whole wages are
17:33
Speaker 1: not growing idea in the sense that for many people,
17:37
Speaker 1: especially coming out of the recovery, which is driven by
17:40
Speaker 1: a credit boom and bust, they're making their spending decisions
17:44
Speaker 1: on what their paycheck looks like. No, Americans haven't been
17:48
Speaker 1: taking out a ton of debt in the wake of
17:50
Speaker 1: the recession. It seems like they sort of learned their lesson.
17:53
Speaker 1: They got badly burned, and now they're working on paying
17:56
Speaker 1: that debt down and acquiring new debt really slowly. So
18:00
Speaker 1: it's got huge implications for our economy because what they
18:03
Speaker 1: can spend is based on what they make, and if
18:05
Speaker 1: they're not making a lot more, they're probably not going
18:08
Speaker 1: to be able to spend a lot more, right right, right,
18:11
Speaker 1: And we should also, you know, note this other caveat that,
18:14
Speaker 1: although you know, when you look at the average or
18:17
Speaker 1: the media and people's wages haven't been growing that much,
18:20
Speaker 1: when you actually look at the very top percentiles, the
18:24
Speaker 1: really rich people, their wages have been actually going up
18:27
Speaker 1: a lot. And when you look at the bottom percentiles,
18:30
Speaker 1: their wages have been, you know, sometimes going down exactly.
18:34
Speaker 1: So just for some context, I think this is good
18:37
Speaker 1: because it's it's nice to sort of get a figure.
18:40
Speaker 1: Well okay, well, so guys are talking about wages. How
18:42
Speaker 1: much does a family make them? So the census data
18:46
Speaker 1: out this morning, like we mentioned, said that the overall
18:51
Speaker 1: median household income was fifty three thousand, six hundred and
18:56
Speaker 1: fifty seven dollars. So that wasn't a statistically different change
19:01
Speaker 1: from last year. Once you adjust for inflation, and you
19:05
Speaker 1: know there hasn't been a statistically significant change over the
19:09
Speaker 1: last three years. That's pretty depressing. Yeah, yeah, you know.
19:13
Speaker 1: We started this episode by asking will you see a
19:17
Speaker 1: raise this year? And Torrey and Dan, all you gave
19:20
Speaker 1: us was hedged answers. Come on, that's not entirely true.
19:24
Speaker 1: I would say, you know, what we know from econ
19:27
Speaker 1: one on one, as you said, says yes, we should
19:30
Speaker 1: be getting raises soon, but it's just not happening, and
19:32
Speaker 1: it's not happening for the past six years. So well,
19:34
Speaker 1: I know the perfect solution to this, the magic eight. Yeah, okay,
19:39
Speaker 1: let's shake it. Will Americans get a raise this year?
19:45
Speaker 1: A big race, a big race statistically significant. Right yeah, right,
19:49
Speaker 1: all right? Oh god, what is it the most depressing
19:57
Speaker 1: magic eight ball of all time? The answer is very doubtful.
20:02
Speaker 1: On that note, thanks so much for joining us again
20:06
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20:09
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