Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Market Crash!️🔥Emergency Fed Cut Coming?
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: I think this was a livestream stream.
- 0:09Speaker 2: Everybody was looking for a lot of things happening in
- 0:12Speaker 2: the market over the weekend, obviously kind of in a
- 0:15Speaker 2: bit of a torchu.
- 0:16Speaker 1: Right now, we'll break it all down for you.
- 0:18Speaker 2: Get into a lot of the tokens, also into some
- 0:20Speaker 2: assignments of what we think might be going on here
- 0:24Speaker 2: in the next couple of weeks and into the future.
- 0:26Speaker 1: My name is Paul Bara. We'll come back into tech path.
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- 1:07Speaker 2: All right, So let's get into a couple of points here. Today,
- 1:10Speaker 2: of course, the market just in over one point nine
- 1:14Speaker 2: trillion riped out, wiped out from the US stock market.
- 1:17Speaker 2: So far we've seen probably one of the biggest falloffs
- 1:21Speaker 2: in the history of the stock market, or one of
- 1:23Speaker 2: the histories of the stock market in the sense of
- 1:25Speaker 2: a single day and over a period of time that
- 1:27Speaker 2: we've seen that's been very tight. Other things that have
- 1:30Speaker 2: played into this, of course, have been just how much
- 1:33Speaker 2: And of course this is one point five trillion in.
- 1:36Speaker 1: Market cap, this was as of today.
- 1:38Speaker 2: This would bring a total down on the mag seven
- 1:40Speaker 2: This of course the big guys, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Google,
- 1:43Speaker 2: of course we know that even mister Warren Buffett exit
- 1:47Speaker 2: out of Apple at eleven percent down, Google down eleven,
- 1:50Speaker 2: Meta down ten, Amazon down ten, and Microsoft course has
- 1:54Speaker 2: been on a slide for quite some time. All of
- 1:57Speaker 2: this many people looking at has did warrnt actually call
- 2:00Speaker 2: the top? I'm kind of curious what you guys think,
- 2:02Speaker 2: so make sure and drop some comments down below. When
- 2:04Speaker 2: I say the top top of the tech bubble in
- 2:07Speaker 2: the sense of where these markets are going or is
- 2:10Speaker 2: this still in a position where this is just a
- 2:12Speaker 2: pullback and most likely we could see more run ahead.
- 2:17Speaker 2: Other things playing into this In video, Stock is officially
- 2:20Speaker 2: down thirty percent off of its all time high in
- 2:23Speaker 2: overnight trading since the high on June twentieth, to race
- 2:26Speaker 2: one point true trillion in market Can you imagine that
- 2:28Speaker 2: one point two trillion erased in market cap since June.
- 2:32Speaker 2: To put this in perspective, only seven companies in the
- 2:36Speaker 2: world have a market cap of one trillion, So literally
- 2:40Speaker 2: entire major markets being erased in a period of a month.
- 2:44Speaker 2: Other things that are playing into this the vis of course,
- 2:47Speaker 2: worst markets events of our lives were remember two thousand
- 2:50Speaker 2: and eight financial crisis COVID of course, and then the
- 2:54Speaker 2: Bank of Japan raising interest rates by quarter percent.
- 2:56Speaker 1: That's today.
- 2:57Speaker 2: So is that the scenario that's playing out right now?
- 3:01Speaker 2: Is that one of the key factors in the overall markets.
- 3:05Speaker 2: I think there are many contributing factors into this. Many
- 3:09Speaker 2: people look at all of these kind of combining into
- 3:12Speaker 2: one particular area. This is Miles Stoocher talking about this.
- 3:16Speaker 2: You know, Trump president, the odds decreasing. If you guys
- 3:19Speaker 2: have been following the polymarket charts. You've seen the Harris
- 3:22Speaker 2: campaign really starting to accelerate recession fears. If we are
- 3:26Speaker 2: in fact in a recession where we've got these scenarios
- 3:29Speaker 2: of higher for longer and now starting to see real
- 3:33Speaker 2: job impact in the market, stop market correction, the end
- 3:37Speaker 2: unwinding geopolitical teenctions.
- 3:39Speaker 1: I think pretty much every here.
- 3:41Speaker 2: Yes, all of these things do align with what has
- 3:44Speaker 2: been happening with this big reduction. Now, remember though that
- 3:49Speaker 2: the market of course here on Monday morning, has had
- 3:53Speaker 2: a massive restructure and has already started to recorrect. Now
- 3:56Speaker 2: does that mean a long term correction here? That I
- 3:59Speaker 2: think is the bigger question going forward. And if it
- 4:03Speaker 2: does mean a long term correction, is it going to
- 4:05Speaker 2: be needing some assistance by the Fed itself. Here's Elon
- 4:09Speaker 2: talking about the FED neiece to drop rates emergency level,
- 4:13Speaker 2: and they're basically foolish for not of essentially going to
- 4:16Speaker 2: it at right now. So he's calling for a FED
- 4:19Speaker 2: rate cut to get initiated even before the September timeframe.
- 4:24Speaker 1: The question is is the Fed too late?
- 4:26Speaker 2: And if you look at this, we asked this last
- 4:27Speaker 2: week in our FOMC hearing and then you know, we
- 4:31Speaker 2: were talking a little bit about that with Evan last week,
- 4:35Speaker 2: and I felt like there could have been a quarter
- 4:37Speaker 2: basis points this month, though I was still highly unlikely,
- 4:41Speaker 2: and I was kind of leaning to September, especially with
- 4:44Speaker 2: the job numbers, probably going to be the one critical
- 4:48Speaker 2: factor that would push chair Pal into a FED rate cut. Now,
- 4:53Speaker 2: remember I'll zoom in on this a little bit, but
- 4:55Speaker 2: this thing went up to spiked up to round almost
- 4:58Speaker 2: sixty percent chance right there in early trading hours on
- 5:03Speaker 2: the fifth, and then of course here we are right
- 5:04Speaker 2: now coming in adjusting down here midday at around thirty
- 5:08Speaker 2: percent chance, even though it's been bumbling or I should
- 5:11Speaker 2: say bobbling, bumbling and bobbling along. Around twenty two was
- 5:14Speaker 2: its lowest, and then it started to climb again throughout
- 5:16Speaker 2: the day. And I'd love to know, do you feel
- 5:18Speaker 2: like the Fed's going to maybe take a look at
- 5:22Speaker 2: at least an emergency rate cut. I think everybody on
- 5:25Speaker 2: Wall Straight, along with pretty much most analysts now are
- 5:29Speaker 2: looking at a FED raycut definitely for September. Other things
- 5:33Speaker 2: to kind of compare is the fear and greed. This
- 5:36Speaker 2: is something to focus on. Here we are in a
- 5:40Speaker 2: thirty one on the fear and greed today, and if
- 5:43Speaker 2: you go back to our lows, we'll go back here
- 5:46Speaker 2: into twenty twenty three, we're at a thirty four and
- 5:49Speaker 2: then this spike up. We were right there at about
- 5:53Speaker 2: a forty nine, big spike up. So these periods of
- 5:57Speaker 2: times where we've had these low fear and greed scenarios,
- 6:01Speaker 2: now we haven't had one that has fallen off this hard,
- 6:04Speaker 2: but we do see those reversals back into where the
- 6:07Speaker 2: market repositions, and we may be on one of those
- 6:11Speaker 2: right now where bitcoin has recovered off of the fifty
- 6:14Speaker 2: K mark. Really forty nine k I saw it was.
- 6:17Speaker 1: It's low.
- 6:18Speaker 2: I want to go to a couple of clips here
- 6:20Speaker 2: because this gets into some other historical things that are happening.
- 6:23Speaker 1: Take a look some would call history.
- 6:26Speaker 3: Don't say that you've never been down a thousand points ever,
- 6:29Speaker 3: not even enter day on the nastack.
- 6:31Speaker 4: Is that true?
- 6:31Speaker 5: That is true?
- 6:32Speaker 4: Okay, I'm down six percent right from the get go.
- 6:35Speaker 4: This is heavy, heavy set, big tech.
- 6:37Speaker 1: Here we go.
- 6:37Speaker 4: Look at them go down. Microsoft is down twenty bucks.
- 6:41Speaker 4: That's five percent, Alphabet five percent, Meta six percent, Amazon
- 6:46Speaker 4: six percent, Apple nine percent down let's pull out Apple.
- 6:50Speaker 4: This is interesting a question.
- 6:54Speaker 2: All right, So big tech yess liquidity coming off the
- 6:58Speaker 2: table starts to push into liquidity into the markets, especially
- 7:02Speaker 2: here in the US and the crypto markets. I want
- 7:05Speaker 2: you guys to keep a very close eye on a
- 7:07Speaker 2: lot of the dates that are coming in. I don't
- 7:09Speaker 2: know if you guys know this, but on Trading View
- 7:10Speaker 2: you go over and getting into the economic calendar and
- 7:14Speaker 2: it zooms in on pretty much everything that's happening out there.
- 7:17Speaker 2: So you've got things happening on Monday. There's obviously the
- 7:21Speaker 2: three month bills coming in. All the ISM data that
- 7:24Speaker 2: came in a little bit lackluster, but nothing critical.
- 7:27Speaker 1: But it does give you a good outlook through the.
- 7:31Speaker 2: Rest of the next couple of weeks, in the next
- 7:33Speaker 2: few days that we'll start to see more and more
- 7:36Speaker 2: data coming into the FED to at least a point
- 7:39Speaker 2: where we may see chair Pal address this. Whether or
- 7:42Speaker 2: not he does or makes a move on a FED
- 7:45Speaker 2: rate cut, I think is really the question. Here's Jeremy
- 7:48Speaker 2: Siegel talking about that very issue.
- 7:50Speaker 6: Take a look, Well, you know what we're witnessing, but
- 7:53Speaker 6: you thought the FED was staying it once again for
- 7:56Speaker 6: the second time staying at the party too long and
- 7:59Speaker 6: too restrict.
- 8:00Speaker 7: You know, this may surprise me. I'm calling for seventy
- 8:04Speaker 7: five basis point emergency cut in the FED funds rate,
- 8:08Speaker 7: with another seventy five basis point cut indicated for next
- 8:13Speaker 7: month at the September meeting, and that's minimum at the
- 8:19Speaker 7: June meeting. The FED has said that the long run
- 8:24Speaker 7: FED funds rate, when inflation reached two percent and unemployment
- 8:29Speaker 7: has come up to four point two percent, should be
- 8:33Speaker 7: two point eight.
- 8:35Speaker 1: That's the normal.
- 8:37Speaker 7: Two point eight is the normal Fed funds rate. Well,
- 8:42Speaker 7: on Friday, we blew up across the employment number.
- 8:47Speaker 1: We're at four point three.
- 8:50Speaker 2: So and there are some I think a lot of
- 8:52Speaker 2: analysts that have looked at that. This is one of
- 8:54Speaker 2: the things that we've been talking about for over a year.
- 8:58Speaker 2: Is one of the lagging in indicators of all these
- 9:01Speaker 2: markets that start to play out is going to be
- 9:04Speaker 2: labor credit was the first. Was the other lagging indicator
- 9:07Speaker 2: that we started to see over the last ninety days,
- 9:09Speaker 2: meaning highest credit in consumer credit that we've seen in
- 9:13Speaker 2: the history of the United States. And not saying that
- 9:16Speaker 2: we were right, but the point is is that we
- 9:18Speaker 2: were looking at the concerning factor of all of this
- 9:21Speaker 2: having a trickle down effect. One of the big categories
- 9:25Speaker 2: that I follow is the restaurant industry, and we've continued
- 9:29Speaker 2: to see a big fall off on employment there, which
- 9:31Speaker 2: is one of the largest employees employment sectors out there.
- 9:35Speaker 2: And if you take away the government jobs, this four
- 9:37Speaker 2: point three that we're setting at right now in terms
- 9:40Speaker 2: of employment unemployment rate could be pretty significant had it
- 9:45Speaker 2: not been in place. So that is a factor I
- 9:47Speaker 2: think that Siegel is talking about. You look at the
- 9:49Speaker 2: true inflation index right here continuing to fall at a
- 9:53Speaker 2: pretty aggressive nature, even though we did have a little
- 9:56Speaker 2: bit of a bounce over the last couple of days,
- 9:57Speaker 2: which went down to one point three on the first
- 10:00Speaker 2: of August and then slightly up here to around one
- 10:03Speaker 2: point five. So all of this, what does this mean? Well,
- 10:07Speaker 2: I think the character of crypto has been a cycle
- 10:11Speaker 2: in and out. Typically you don't see these kind of
- 10:13Speaker 2: things moving at the same time. It's usually off of
- 10:16Speaker 2: one and into another, you know. And I think that's
- 10:19Speaker 2: the perplexing situation that is presenting to the market and
- 10:24Speaker 2: a lot of people talking about this. You know, Government
- 10:27Speaker 2: hire and spree was the good example of it propping
- 10:29Speaker 2: up the US job market. If you had taken those
- 10:31Speaker 2: jobs away, where would that number be? And if that
- 10:35Speaker 2: number were in place? Much like Siegel was talking about,
- 10:39Speaker 2: why isn't the adjusted interest rate accommodating for that? And
- 10:43Speaker 2: in other words, why did we stay you know, higher
- 10:46Speaker 2: for longer so long? And did in fact chairpal do
- 10:51Speaker 2: irreparable damage to the economy? That is the question, because
- 10:53Speaker 2: many of these things you just don't know for months
- 10:56Speaker 2: and months after when this occurs. And I think that
- 11:00Speaker 2: that's the problem that we could be facing right now.
- 11:02Speaker 2: I want to go to Katie Stockton. She talks a
- 11:05Speaker 2: little bit more how to manage risk if this does
- 11:08Speaker 2: start to heat up a little bit more.
- 11:09Speaker 6: Take a look how thick is the fear and uncertainty
- 11:13Speaker 6: right now? Can you?
- 11:14Speaker 4: Well?
- 11:14Speaker 8: I think today it's really kind of changed. On Friday
- 11:17Speaker 8: we saw indications of fear moving into the marketplace, which
- 11:20Speaker 8: had us on the lookout for signs of a shakeout,
- 11:23Speaker 8: which is effectively a false breakdown. And what tends to happen.
- 11:27Speaker 8: You see the vixed spike the way that it has
- 11:29Speaker 8: done Friday and now of course today up above fifty
- 11:32Speaker 8: two or so on the vix with that, it's rarely
- 11:36Speaker 8: a good day to sell, is what I would tell folks. So,
- 11:38Speaker 8: even though there's some panic in the marketplace right now,
- 11:41Speaker 8: you're seeing it across the board, multiple asset classes, multiple countries,
- 11:46Speaker 8: we feel that usually a snapback is at least a
- 11:48Speaker 8: better selling an opportunity when the fear is running as
- 11:51Speaker 8: high as it is.
- 11:53Speaker 6: If a snap backward orccrew, you could sell at better prices,
- 11:55Speaker 6: but you're still saying sell.
- 11:58Speaker 8: Well, we're saying sell ahead of a deeper correction. We do,
- 12:03Speaker 8: so we've been calling now for a seasonal correction. We
- 12:06Speaker 8: don't know what's going to happen, but we can try
- 12:08Speaker 8: to manage with through this type of environment, and I
- 12:11Speaker 8: think with a snapback we probably should be managing some
- 12:14Speaker 8: risk at least through that November sort of October seasonal
- 12:17Speaker 8: low period.
- 12:19Speaker 2: All right, So you can kind of see there is
- 12:21Speaker 2: still a lot of mitigation here going on in terms
- 12:24Speaker 2: of how analysts are looking at out of structure around
- 12:27Speaker 2: This doesn't mean that's necessarily the way to look at
- 12:29Speaker 2: it from a crypto side of things, but I think
- 12:31Speaker 2: for anybody, again not financial advice, they're probably looking at
- 12:35Speaker 2: whether your dollar cost averaging, or you're looking at maybe
- 12:38Speaker 2: entry points that you haven't seen, you know, in the
- 12:40Speaker 2: last year, and there's been a token maybe you're interested in.
- 12:43Speaker 2: But the fear of a US recession is the key
- 12:47Speaker 2: factor here, because if we do see a US recession,
- 12:49Speaker 2: in other words, a little bit more friction on the
- 12:52Speaker 2: job market and a struggle to get back into a
- 12:56Speaker 2: position for the FED in terms of lowering interest because
- 12:59Speaker 2: then if you lower two fast, things can of course
- 13:02Speaker 2: get out of balance in terms of how the economy
- 13:04Speaker 2: starts to react. US recession fears a hit crypto and equity.
- 13:09Speaker 2: But obviously the Japanese rate hike was the real culprit,
- 13:12Speaker 2: and of course this was one of the big factors.
- 13:14Speaker 2: That's about four trillion really that were at risk from
- 13:17Speaker 2: what was happening with the Japanese market. And of course
- 13:20Speaker 2: if you looked at the n K, another big structure
- 13:23Speaker 2: there in terms of breaking down many things flowing into this.
- 13:27Speaker 2: Over two hundred and seventy seven thousand traders liquidated their
- 13:30Speaker 2: bitcoin holdings. This is twenty four hours after we saw
- 13:34Speaker 2: the price under fifty k. That's one Kruger also was
- 13:38Speaker 2: looking at this believes the main issue not necessarily the
- 13:40Speaker 2: state of the US economy.
- 13:41Speaker 1: I disagreed there.
- 13:42Speaker 2: I think the economy has been in a little bit
- 13:45Speaker 2: of a downturn for quite a while. I think this
- 13:47Speaker 2: is just the position where people have recognized it. He suggests, though,
- 13:51Speaker 2: that the problem seems to be that the FED did
- 13:53Speaker 2: not cut interest rates while Japan increased its own key rate.
- 13:57Speaker 1: That I agree with.
- 13:58Speaker 2: FED will likely cut the policy by fifty BIPs in September.
- 14:02Speaker 2: This is what we were talking about a couple of
- 14:04Speaker 2: weeks ago, and I think everybody was a little bit saying, hey,
- 14:08Speaker 2: that's a bit of an overreach right now. Job numbers,
- 14:11Speaker 2: I think scared everyone in the market, and it started
- 14:15Speaker 2: to put a lot more pressure on going forward. So
- 14:17Speaker 2: if we continue to watch that job number and the
- 14:19Speaker 2: credit number continuing to decline, we're going to see some
- 14:23Speaker 2: very interesting markets. Here's camp Field talking about this. First
- 14:26Speaker 2: time I've seen bitcoin and the US dollar nuking together
- 14:31Speaker 2: like this, And again that's another factor that are almost
- 14:34Speaker 2: out of the cyclical terms of what we've seen in
- 14:37Speaker 2: these markets before. So make sure and drop some questions
- 14:40Speaker 2: in over on side, and also hit the poll over there.
- 14:42Speaker 2: I want to get you guys input on that if
- 14:45Speaker 2: you like these live streams, listen, just hit the like
- 14:47Speaker 2: button right now, just take a second, hit the like button.
- 14:51Speaker 2: It does help us get out in the YouTube algorithms,
- 14:54Speaker 2: but more importantly, it helps people start to realize, hey,
- 14:57Speaker 2: there's a place to go to maybe track what's happening
- 15:01Speaker 2: in not only blockchain or web three, but how it
- 15:03Speaker 2: ties to traditional markets. Other things that of course everybody
- 15:07Speaker 2: looked at was this right here, crypto market crash triggered
- 15:10Speaker 2: by the aggressive selling by Jump. So you know, now
- 15:15Speaker 2: Jump is pretty much out of the market, it looks like.
- 15:17Speaker 2: But Ether and its price struggling to remain around twenty
- 15:21Speaker 2: two hundred. This is a very psychological mark. I would
- 15:23Speaker 2: agree with potential move lower, which we saw it dip.
- 15:27Speaker 2: Underneath that other things that have seen is look at
- 15:30Speaker 2: the amount of sell offs that have been happening, would
- 15:33Speaker 2: jump over just this last bit of time, so that
- 15:36Speaker 2: in itself still pressuring Ether in general.
- 15:39Speaker 1: I think the key.
- 15:40Speaker 2: Here when you look at many of these majors like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana, Avalanche,
- 15:48Speaker 2: to an extent, even XRP, the key here is that
- 15:52Speaker 2: with this kind of macroeconomic position, because you have to
- 15:56Speaker 2: remember how much. If you really think about this, how
- 15:59Speaker 2: much much the traditional markets have regressed in comparison, that
- 16:04Speaker 2: would be like a forty to fifty percent drawdown in
- 16:07Speaker 2: crypto in terms of the veracity and just the issue.
- 16:11Speaker 2: Right now, every analyst out there is talking about this,
- 16:13Speaker 2: and they are jumping to huge numbers in terms of
- 16:17Speaker 2: rate cuts. I look at this as a typical process
- 16:22Speaker 2: that our crypto markets go through. Sure they're definitely fed
- 16:26Speaker 2: in by what traditional markets are doing, but I'm not
- 16:28Speaker 2: necessarily that worried right now. A couple of things you
- 16:32Speaker 2: could look at, why are they selling? This is, of course,
- 16:34Speaker 2: was jumped selling one hundred and twenty thousand, almost one
- 16:37Speaker 2: hundred and twenty yea one hundred and twenty thousand worth
- 16:39Speaker 2: of four un and one million sold eighty three three
- 16:42Speaker 2: and seventy seven million. This is all since July again,
- 16:45Speaker 2: so the market began to fall after July twenty fourth.
- 16:48Speaker 2: If you're following our own metric here, which is our MSI,
- 16:54Speaker 2: this is our market Centiment Index.
- 16:56Speaker 1: The intimate are.
- 16:57Speaker 2: The date that I was a little bit concerned with
- 16:59Speaker 2: was right around here, and this is back on the
- 17:01Speaker 2: twenty ninth where we started to see this drive down
- 17:03Speaker 2: last week, especially in the fall off right here, which
- 17:08Speaker 2: came off of the high around fifty six, which is
- 17:10Speaker 2: back on the nineteenth of July. This, by the way,
- 17:13Speaker 2: is available if you guys are not in the diamond circle.
- 17:15Speaker 2: Get in now you learn a little bit more about
- 17:16Speaker 2: getting access to some of these charts. We do a
- 17:19Speaker 2: lot of things within our own sentiment analysis around the
- 17:22Speaker 2: markets itself. Have our own indicator when we show charts.
- 17:26Speaker 2: That indicator which by the way, wait big news. The
- 17:29Speaker 2: indicator that is our invite only script that is now available,
- 17:34Speaker 2: so you should be seeing some notices in your trading
- 17:37Speaker 2: view accounts that the indicator is live. So for you
- 17:40Speaker 2: guys that are watching, that is now live and available.
- 17:44Speaker 2: Firstin says Bitcoin not to blame for the price crash
- 17:48Speaker 2: remains very in essence of Trump trade ahead of the
- 17:52Speaker 2: US elections. A lot of people look at this though,
- 17:55Speaker 2: I think when you look at where Trump has fallen
- 17:58Speaker 2: and that's another factor, is something that kind of surprised me.
- 18:01Speaker 2: If I can go to it, I'll go back to
- 18:03Speaker 2: our homepage. I'm going to go to our crypto tracker
- 18:07Speaker 2: on the politics because this was in my opinion, we
- 18:12Speaker 2: have not seen this climb right here by Harris. I
- 18:15Speaker 2: mean this, remember was Harris prior to let me kind
- 18:19Speaker 2: of zoom in on that for you guys a little
- 18:21Speaker 2: bit prior to being selected into where it is right
- 18:24Speaker 2: now forty So it's literally and Trump has been falling
- 18:28Speaker 2: with crypto punnits out there right now where it's down
- 18:32Speaker 2: to a seventy three point nine. That's pretty significant, which
- 18:36Speaker 2: because he was holding that seventy nine rating on crypto
- 18:40Speaker 2: sentiment based on how people in crypto think of Donald
- 18:45Speaker 2: Trump or you know, Harris in terms of a potential
- 18:49Speaker 2: candidate for the presidency. So these things are merging much
- 18:52Speaker 2: like what we've seen on the polymarket as well. All right,
- 18:56Speaker 2: let me go back to a couple of things black Rock,
- 18:58Speaker 2: of course, spot bitcoin et after passing one point five
- 19:01Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys can. I'm want to
- 19:02Speaker 2: zoom in on these because sometimes that's too small. One
- 19:05Speaker 2: point five billion in trading volume in the first hour
- 19:08Speaker 2: of trading, and I've got a couple of clips here
- 19:11Speaker 2: I want to cut to. I think I have Let
- 19:14Speaker 2: me see which one, do we Yeah, we want to
- 19:15Speaker 2: go to the Tom Lee quick clip, real quick, let's tick.
- 19:17Speaker 6: A look, do you do you get the feeling that
- 19:19Speaker 6: this is not going to be a major selloff.
- 19:24Speaker 9: Do you know we have over three days Suddenly markets
- 19:28Speaker 9: reversed and you know, Japan down to over twenty percent,
- 19:32Speaker 9: and as you're pointing out, the Nasdaq could even you know,
- 19:35Speaker 9: decline further. Declines like that are generally symmetric, but you
- 19:40Speaker 9: have to watch the VIX, and when the VIX peaks
- 19:44Speaker 9: and starts to roll over and fall down, the recovery
- 19:47Speaker 9: can be just as quick. I think a lot of
- 19:50Speaker 9: this depends on whether financial conditions in the US start
- 19:54Speaker 9: to tighten, but it does seem like as we look
- 19:57Speaker 9: back a lot more this is because of the surprise
- 19:59Speaker 9: high from Japan and the sort of knock on effects
- 20:04Speaker 9: from there. If that is the primary source of the reaction,
- 20:08Speaker 9: I know it's going to be tumultuous for markets, but
- 20:11Speaker 9: for the US economy, it's not necessarily bad news, and
- 20:15Speaker 9: I think that's why we can balance.
- 20:18Speaker 2: I think the key here with Tom Lee is, first
- 20:21Speaker 2: of all, he's kind of a permeable I feel like,
- 20:24Speaker 2: but at the same time, as long as we don't
- 20:26Speaker 2: get more negative numbers on the job side, yes, I
- 20:29Speaker 2: think now the market.
- 20:31Speaker 1: Is is skittish enough.
- 20:33Speaker 2: To where Chairpal may do well. We'll do a cut
- 20:37Speaker 2: in September, So it's coming. The question is do we
- 20:39Speaker 2: get a second cut this year. If we get a
- 20:42Speaker 2: follow up cut and the job numbers do start to stabilize,
- 20:46Speaker 2: if we get another four point three reading, another four
- 20:49Speaker 2: point four or greater reading, that signals a different kind
- 20:53Speaker 2: of economy that Lee I don't know is really present
- 20:57Speaker 2: for because if you think about this, the last time
- 21:00Speaker 2: that we've seen some of these numbers, and I don't
- 21:02Speaker 2: know if I'll go to the unemployment numbers right here,
- 21:05Speaker 2: these are periods of time. Let me zoom in on this.
- 21:08Speaker 2: This is the last one that I think most of
- 21:10Speaker 2: you guys will recognize is the two thousand and eight
- 21:12Speaker 2: you know, financial crisis right there, almost ten percent unemployment. Now,
- 21:17Speaker 2: granted we started to see that fall off, and this
- 21:19Speaker 2: was the recovery that got us in of course prior
- 21:22Speaker 2: to COVID. Of course COVID, I still say that's an
- 21:25Speaker 2: anomaly that shouldn't even be on this chart. You should
- 21:27Speaker 2: just track this right across the base from where it
- 21:30Speaker 2: ended at around three point six and pick it up
- 21:33Speaker 2: right there to three point seven and zoom in because
- 21:36Speaker 2: right there is the loop that is concerning this right here,
- 21:40Speaker 2: from a three point seven up to word trading right now,
- 21:43Speaker 2: not trading, but tracking unemployment at four point three. Again
- 21:48Speaker 2: goes back to the things that I watched the most,
- 21:50Speaker 2: and that is what are the service sector jobs looking like?
- 21:53Speaker 2: Every restaurant business out there, every retail business is down
- 21:57Speaker 2: in numbers. McDonald's reported their first down numbers in what
- 22:00Speaker 2: I think was like twenty quarters or something. These are
- 22:04Speaker 2: not signals that are positive for the market, So I
- 22:07Speaker 2: think that's the only factor that would play into this now.
- 22:09Speaker 2: All that being said, back to crypto. One of the
- 22:12Speaker 2: clips that I wanted to play for you guy, you
- 22:15Speaker 2: guys was kind of a bit of an unusual interview
- 22:18Speaker 2: done by CNBC.
- 22:19Speaker 1: Let me go to this one. This is the tezos founder.
- 22:22Speaker 6: Take a look, co founder of the blockchain tease us.
- 22:25Speaker 5: It's good to see.
- 22:31Speaker 1: Austin.
- 22:31Speaker 2: But the guys are going to get it back for you.
- 22:33Speaker 2: We're going to bring it back in there, and we'll
- 22:35Speaker 2: get into that in a second. Other things that, of
- 22:37Speaker 2: course are happening right now. Six point one trillion of
- 22:40Speaker 2: cash still sitting on the sideline. This could be a
- 22:42Speaker 2: big factor because with this much cash on the sidelines,
- 22:46Speaker 2: will they come back into the market or are they
- 22:49Speaker 2: still skittish in a position where they're keeping dry powder?
- 22:52Speaker 2: Are you in that kind of position? I'm kind of
- 22:54Speaker 2: curious if you guys are in a position where you're
- 22:56Speaker 2: keeping dry powder on the line. Are you in a
- 22:58Speaker 2: position now or you would deploy that? Let me know,
- 23:01Speaker 2: just drop some comments down below.
- 23:02Speaker 1: I see a lot of Oh my god, I love that.
- 23:08Speaker 2: Yeah, that's hilarious.
- 23:13Speaker 1: I can't. I'm sorry, I could. I'm looking at that's
- 23:17Speaker 1: in the questions right there. Do we have that clip ready?
- 23:20Speaker 1: Do we have the clip ready?
- 23:21Speaker 5: Or no?
- 23:22Speaker 9: No?
- 23:22Speaker 1: Okay, so let's keep on. We'll get going. I wanted
- 23:25Speaker 1: to play that clip for you.
- 23:25Speaker 2: But anyway, another couple of things right now is at
- 23:28Speaker 2: least six trading platforms are down. This was Citybank, Fidelity,
- 23:33Speaker 2: E Trade, Vanguard, TDM, or Trade, and Schwab all in craziness.
- 23:39Speaker 2: Funny thing was is, uh, you know, I thought only
- 23:42Speaker 2: crypto exchanges went down, But in reality, I know it's
- 23:45Speaker 2: not funny because the's a lot of people were trying
- 23:46Speaker 2: to make trades. So completely understand the frustration you get
- 23:50Speaker 2: when you're in a position. You're trying to get out
- 23:52Speaker 2: of something and you can't make that. Here's Jeremy Layer saying, hey,
- 23:55Speaker 2: don't worry about it. Lots of brokerage sites are down.
- 23:58Speaker 2: DeFi always on, never sleeps, open networks, open source protocol,
- 24:02Speaker 2: auditable in real time. Oh yeah, always on, fully reserved
- 24:05Speaker 2: digital dollars.
- 24:07Speaker 1: Like the USDC.
- 24:09Speaker 2: All right, let's go into a couple other points I
- 24:11Speaker 2: want to get in. I'm gonna take a look at
- 24:13Speaker 2: the charts for a second. We're gonna try the clip,
- 24:16Speaker 2: all right, So let's go back to that clip real quick.
- 24:18Speaker 2: I want you guys to watch this. See what you
- 24:20Speaker 2: guys think.
- 24:21Speaker 6: Co founder of the blockchain tease us. It's good to
- 24:24Speaker 6: see you this morning. I mean, gold didn't go down.
- 24:27Speaker 3: I know, I think bitquing it's a bit of a
- 24:29Speaker 3: schlacking because it's you know, definitely cast war as a
- 24:32Speaker 3: speculative currency. It's don treated the same as a lot
- 24:34Speaker 3: of other equities.
- 24:35Speaker 10: You just called it pretend to internet money.
- 24:37Speaker 5: Yes, that's uh people.
- 24:42Speaker 10: You know you're saying the quiet part out loud for
- 24:43Speaker 10: some people.
- 24:45Speaker 3: Oh, I think it's good to acknoledge that it's an
- 24:47Speaker 3: experiment and therefore Are you a believer in this experiment?
- 24:51Speaker 3: Very much so, but I think it's also good to
- 24:52Speaker 3: take it with a grain of salt. I know that
- 24:55Speaker 3: it's a very young, young market, and do.
- 24:57Speaker 5: You think it's a store value? That narrative is being
- 25:01Speaker 5: decimated as we.
- 25:01Speaker 10: Speak, so therefore you don't think it's a store of value.
- 25:04Speaker 5: I've never really bought into that narrative.
- 25:06Speaker 10: So you just think of it as a speculative stock.
- 25:09Speaker 2: No.
- 25:09Speaker 3: I think it's a new way to exchange value with
- 25:10Speaker 3: someone who you may or may not know across the internet.
- 25:14Speaker 6: So it doesn't need to be a store of value
- 25:18Speaker 6: to be to be something that's valuable and used.
- 25:22Speaker 3: I think that it addresses a fundamental problem and a
- 25:25Speaker 3: technical problem that isn't necessarily a pantasy for everyone. I
- 25:29Speaker 3: think the store of value meme is like a meme,
- 25:32Speaker 3: just like a lot of other cryptoculture that like sometimes
- 25:35Speaker 3: makes sense that other times doesn't. Another sort of nonsense
- 25:38Speaker 3: meme around bitcoin is that it's backed.
- 25:40Speaker 5: By sow value. Should it be a story?
- 25:44Speaker 10: Let me ask you just a different question, because this
- 25:46Speaker 10: is important on the screen for those who have bought
- 25:48Speaker 10: in ya the ETF. Okay, So look, if you look
- 25:50Speaker 10: at a Bitcoin ETF today, they're all down about seventeen percent,
- 25:54Speaker 10: something on the order of seventeen percent. I want you
- 25:55Speaker 10: to now, can we take the screen back up on
- 25:58Speaker 10: bitcoin itself, because you're going to see that there's a
- 26:00Speaker 10: differential between the ETF and bitcoin, the underlying currency. Right,
- 26:06Speaker 10: You're going to see it's off about thirteen percent. Boy, okay,
- 26:09Speaker 10: do you see the distinction here? There's an arbitrage situation
- 26:12Speaker 10: going on. So what does that say to you?
- 26:17Speaker 5: Not super sure?
- 26:19Speaker 10: Well, the reason I ask it is clearly the et
- 26:23Speaker 10: apps are trading at a discount, a significant discount to
- 26:26Speaker 10: the underlying currency. And whether that is a good thing
- 26:29Speaker 10: a bad thing, what does that really even mean?
- 26:31Speaker 5: It's a great opportunity for someone.
- 26:33Speaker 2: You see that, all right, So what it tells me
- 26:36Speaker 2: is to never have the teslo's founder back on CNBC
- 26:40Speaker 2: as you can see a little craziness there. But the
- 26:42Speaker 2: point I'm getting at is, and I think we're getting at,
- 26:45Speaker 2: is you look at all these emerging markets.
- 26:48Speaker 1: I would give her that.
- 26:49Speaker 2: One thing that she said is this is an emerging
- 26:52Speaker 2: market much like AI, much like what we saw in
- 26:54Speaker 2: the early birth years of the Internet, the early birth
- 26:57Speaker 2: years of mobile. All of those technologies were debt and
- 27:00Speaker 2: frowned upon by every investor out there, you know, until later,
- 27:05Speaker 2: you know, Warren Buffett comes in and says, yeah, we
- 27:06Speaker 2: should be investing in these kind of technologies. And I
- 27:09Speaker 2: think that is one of the factors there. But you're right,
- 27:13Speaker 2: she was getting destroyed. So I don't know if anybody's
- 27:15Speaker 2: selling tezos out there or not, but you know, you
- 27:17Speaker 2: might want to think about that. Let's move into some questions.
- 27:20Speaker 2: We are going to go to the poll real quick,
- 27:22Speaker 2: and then I'll get in some charts real quick.
- 27:23Speaker 1: Let's take a look at.
- 27:24Speaker 2: The poll, all right, what happens next? Bitcoin forty nine,
- 27:27Speaker 2: which had hit this was not really a fair poll
- 27:30Speaker 2: because we're off the forty nine mark. But everybody's saying
- 27:32Speaker 2: maybe we go back to forty nine before sixty nine. K.
- 27:37Speaker 2: So that being the case, I'm going to go to
- 27:40Speaker 2: the four hour chart on bitcoin and we'll take a
- 27:45Speaker 2: look at what this might be with our MSI data.
- 27:49Speaker 2: One thing I would say right now is that this
- 27:51Speaker 2: has been one of the lowest numbers I've seen on
- 27:54Speaker 2: bitcoin sentiment over a while. This again on our own
- 27:57Speaker 2: MSI chart, still trending down even though we did have
- 28:00Speaker 2: a little bit of correction here, but still trending down.
- 28:03Speaker 2: On the four hour. If you look at ethereum right
- 28:07Speaker 2: now also also trending down, but within the data it'll
- 28:12Speaker 2: take a second here for that to paint up. Sometimes
- 28:14Speaker 2: there there we go also having a pretty significant downturn
- 28:19Speaker 2: in terms of overall sentiment. One of the things too
- 28:22Speaker 2: on the MSI is anytime we start to see these
- 28:25Speaker 2: numbers under twenty percent, this gets really interesting. So net
- 28:29Speaker 2: volume right now in around twenty three percent, so very
- 28:31Speaker 2: low on that. The only one that really kind of
- 28:34Speaker 2: had a little bit of a turnaround was Salona, I
- 28:36Speaker 2: believe on the four hour, I think we had some
- 28:39Speaker 2: positive yeah one on the net volume sentiment was coming
- 28:42Speaker 2: in right there. You can kind of see that green
- 28:43Speaker 2: box coming in on that. So things are definitely moving
- 28:47Speaker 2: in the markets. We're going to be watching a lot
- 28:48Speaker 2: of this and for for always. If you guys are
- 28:52Speaker 2: not in our dimond circle, get in on that. We
- 28:54Speaker 2: always leave links down down below.
- 28:57Speaker 1: We'll get to some questions.
- 28:59Speaker 2: Did you guys pull up another poll or no, we're
- 29:01Speaker 2: good on the poll, all right, I didn't know if
- 29:03Speaker 2: you guys had another pole all right, but we do
- 29:05Speaker 2: have some questions.
- 29:06Speaker 1: All right, so a couple of people. I love that woman.
- 29:08Speaker 2: I don't know if you love it for the comedy
- 29:11Speaker 2: relief or what was it?
- 29:13Speaker 1: And then molders things you got destroyed? Let's see what
- 29:16Speaker 1: else do we have? Do we have any questions in here?
- 29:19Speaker 2: I'm looking, well, will you bring in Evan and do
- 29:22Speaker 2: some ta you know, Evan kind of called this last Friday,
- 29:25Speaker 2: is that he was talking around. I think it was
- 29:27Speaker 2: forty eight to fifty two was his number. So kudos
- 29:31Speaker 2: to Evan right there? Do you have dry powder? I
- 29:34Speaker 2: don't know, do you guys? Are you guys looking at
- 29:36Speaker 2: I mean I made some trades over the weekend. I'm
- 29:38Speaker 2: happy about those. We'll see, but I'm looking at this
- 29:41Speaker 2: at a long term. What was the issue that forced
- 29:44Speaker 2: Jump to dump? Where there's smoke, there'll be fire, you know.
- 29:49Speaker 2: I think that's the real question that a lot of
- 29:50Speaker 2: people are looking at. But ironically they put most of
- 29:53Speaker 2: that back into USDC, so into digital, So I don't know.
- 29:58Speaker 1: This is still unknown for actor here. There won't be
- 30:00Speaker 1: an emergency FED meeting that would cause more panic. I
- 30:03Speaker 1: agree with that.
- 30:04Speaker 2: I think it's just a fifty basis points. Maybe by
- 30:07Speaker 2: September fed late to react to the obvious what a chakra. Yeah,
- 30:11Speaker 2: I think that's the case for sure, pretty much the
- 30:14Speaker 2: case that they've always been in, and you know over history.
- 30:18Speaker 2: I read they were pricing an emergency FED great because
- 30:20Speaker 2: so rallied, and then I guess they found out it's
- 30:22Speaker 2: not going to happen, so they're dumping again. That's the thing.
- 30:25Speaker 2: End of day closed is going to be really critical
- 30:27Speaker 2: for a lot of these assets and a lot of
- 30:31Speaker 2: people out there buying right now. Tasos owns for twenty
- 30:37Speaker 2: k twenty thousand bitcoints. Not a story of value. Well,
- 30:41Speaker 2: you know, some people look at it as a speculative asset,
- 30:44Speaker 2: as many of these things are. So I understand it's
- 30:47Speaker 2: on you know, an ETF. I get that, but still
- 30:49Speaker 2: people you kind of have to give them for, you know,
- 30:52Speaker 2: for what they believe in an asset can do. Just
- 30:54Speaker 2: like if you're an Nvidia holder or any kind of
- 30:57Speaker 2: technology or there's a lot of ETFs out there at
- 30:59Speaker 2: the trade like this. JP Morgan allows XRP for credit
- 31:02Speaker 2: card and mortgage payments. I did see that over the weekend.
- 31:05Speaker 2: One of our researchers was dropping it into me good
- 31:07Speaker 2: news I think for XRP. Notice xrp's numbers not moving
- 31:11Speaker 2: dramatically over the weekend, sliding down over the last three
- 31:17Speaker 2: or four days down and then of course bumping back up.
- 31:20Speaker 2: We'll see if it comes back to its high, which
- 31:23Speaker 2: was around sixty five over the last couple of weeks,
- 31:26Speaker 2: even though sentiment down still but a nice move right
- 31:29Speaker 2: here on.
- 31:30Speaker 1: XRP on its recovery. But we'll see.
- 31:33Speaker 2: I think right now, still most everything is on the
- 31:36Speaker 2: down trend, even with this slight bump off of the bottom.
- 31:40Speaker 1: Just be careful.
- 31:41Speaker 2: You may see some things happening in the markets that
- 31:45Speaker 2: a lot of people are going to go, oh my.
- 31:47Speaker 1: Here we go.
- 31:48Speaker 2: Joby says rate cuts are coming and they're going to
- 31:51Speaker 2: come in hot. They will kick the can down the road,
- 31:54Speaker 2: I like they do every single time. Everyone just needs
- 31:56Speaker 2: to relax. This is literally my bitcoin exists. I think
- 32:00Speaker 2: the relaxing part is definitely the case because there are
- 32:04Speaker 2: a lot of people I think that are overreacting to
- 32:06Speaker 2: the kind of moves. These are moves that I think
- 32:08Speaker 2: for most people in crypto, they've seen them. You know, listen,
- 32:11Speaker 2: my portfolio got decimated, but that's normal. I look at
- 32:15Speaker 2: it in that way. You look at the long term
- 32:18Speaker 2: and once you zoom out, things change your perspective of
- 32:21Speaker 2: how these markets can move. So keep that and your
- 32:24Speaker 2: head about you. You'd be fine other things. As I said,
- 32:27Speaker 2: jump in on yeah, Manny, we did a whole video,
- 32:32Speaker 2: not a whole yeah. I think we did a whole
- 32:34Speaker 2: video on the Avalanche thing for their DMV contract.
- 32:38Speaker 1: Big news.
- 32:38Speaker 2: I think if they can, you know, tally on to
- 32:42Speaker 2: that and get more states involved. What he's talking about
- 32:45Speaker 2: is basically the entire Department of Voter Vehicles in California
- 32:50Speaker 2: now put all of their transactions on to Avalanche, and
- 32:54Speaker 2: if that goes into more states, AVAX definitely going to
- 32:57Speaker 2: see some stuff. And remember they got a lot happening.
- 32:59Speaker 2: Avalanche's got a lot happening coming into their big events,
- 33:02Speaker 2: so be on the lookout for some moves on Avalanche.
- 33:06Speaker 2: What did you buy over the weekend? I bought some
- 33:08Speaker 2: Salana and I also bought some Ethereum over the weekend
- 33:11Speaker 2: because that's just you know, that's just what I do.
- 33:14Speaker 1: I like those. Anyway, guys, make sure and get in
- 33:17Speaker 1: on the Diamond Circle.
- 33:17Speaker 2: It's a great place to get additional content for you
- 33:20Speaker 2: guys out there. We also do some custom content that
- 33:23Speaker 2: we don't put here on YouTube in the diamond circle,
- 33:25Speaker 2: and you're part of a community that we also drop
- 33:28Speaker 2: stuff into as well. So when you're in that diamond circle,
- 33:31Speaker 2: you'll get a little library that says yet says you
- 33:33Speaker 2: have access into the community.
- 33:35Speaker 1: That's how it works.
- 33:36Speaker 2: Or you can follow me out there on x at
- 33:38Speaker 2: Paul Barren. We'll catch you next time. Right here, a
- 33:40Speaker 2: tech bath