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Rally Extended?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Cshire is extended. The rally is happening in the S
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred. We'll equipto follow up with all that.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: We're going to break it all down in today's show.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it. I do want to thank our sponsor,
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• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Let's go into a couple of points I want to
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: start off with. Today, the US and IRN are weighing
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the extension of the ceasefire.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: This is another two weeks.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: President Trump also says the Iranian war is very close
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: to being over. So what do you believe right now? Well,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: if you're looking at the S and P, you kind
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: of have to think something's up because this has never
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: happened in history. We're in the middle of a war
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: S and P five hundred about to hit all actually
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: as hit all time high. I'll try to show you
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the chart. In a second war started, S and P
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: crashed eight eight and a half. This is around five
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: point three trillion now from the bottom, which has been
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: since marchillary first is almost up ten percent. That's six
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: point two trillion back into the market coming on. And
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: the strangest thing is that the war isn't over, so
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: negotiations still are up in the air. If you look
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: at the chart right there, that's the S and P
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: five hundred, Guys, look at the movement that we've had
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: here from the bottom, which was March thirtieth, and let's
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: go and measure that from where the bottom of that
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: candle was to where we're trading right now. This is
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: eleven percent almost up in literally less than ten days.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: So that's the kind of thing that we are faced with.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: You look at that. Along with this, investors are believing
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: that the stock market is overvalued. Plunges to its lowest
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: level in more than seven years. Meeting people still think
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: this is on its way up. More is coming, More
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: winning is coming in the S and P five hundred.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Let me know if you guys are that way.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Do you believe that right now all these kind of
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: things when it looks at tradfi looks like there's not
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: even a war happening. But at the same time, how
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: is this going to trade out over the next little bit.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Here's Mark Cudmore breaking it down.
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: Investors are trading as if the war is effectively over,
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: and I think that is the correct approach from a
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: macro investor point of view. That the rest of the
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: world ultimately doesn't care if it's not going to kind
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: of really blow up or escalate again. They just want
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: to see if this progress being made. They don't care
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: the intricacies of what's negotia deal. They just want to
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: know this is not going to get worse and we're
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: on a path to recovery.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: I think what's still.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: In debate is how bad are those lingering impacts stag
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: flacial impulse going to be. I think that we're going
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: to be trading the impacts of the supply chain disruption
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: for months, but I don't think it's going to be
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: the dominant theme now. Will it even be a very
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: major theme or just a minor subtext in certain sectors.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: That's the bit we're trying to work out there's a.
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: Chance that we might all read'd be moving to a
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: world by next week.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: We're really we're just.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Back to trade in the AI theme, and what you
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: think are the kind of the winners and losers from
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: that and the kind of steps. And I have to
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: say I'm increasingly going towards that camp, but I'll stay
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: open minded for now while we continue to do more analysis.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: All right, I have to believe that there is some
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: significant inside analysis here that is looking at the rest
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: of what's happening on a macro standpoint to at least
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: see the S and P five hundred over seven thousand
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: here as all of this is happening. So either people
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: believe it they are continue on with this trade. Now,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I would go in the direction of
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: an AI trade just resuming as planned. However, I do
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: have something to show you on that. I want to
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: show you a clip that maybe the sentiment is starting
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: to falter.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: More than half of Americans now say the risk of
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: AI outweighs the benefit the tech. They say, at least,
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: according to these polls, will do more harm than good.
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: Pew shows some similar trends, and that is all I'm
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: filling over to the data center build out. Forty eight
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: projects totally at least one hundred and fifty six billion
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: dollars or blocked last year at least delayed. According to
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: some sources.
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: I've spoken to at least a couple of data center
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: CEOs who keep telling me that, you know, a lot
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: of the reason why people have this fear is that
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: there's a gap in information about what data centers really
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: do versus what the public understands or knows. How exactly
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: does that kind of reconcile ahead of this big election season.
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: I think that is a good point. You're seeing it
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: on sort of a micro level, like with these pushbacks
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: on the data centers. If you go to any of
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: these data centers, it really is an empty warehouse with
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: a bunch of a bunch of computers essentially, is a
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: way to think about it.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, so a couple of things to kind of compare
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: against there. But before I do, most companies now are
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: failing to make money from AI, at least the AI
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: companies themselves. There was a new study out here just
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: showing twenty percent of companies or capturing seventy five percent
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: of AI profits. Top performers right now seven point two
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: more AI driven revenue, And of course it's also revealing
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: the top companies are two to three more times likely
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: to use AI to identify and pursue growth opportunities. The
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: point being is that not enough money being made on
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: it yet. But at the same time, if you kind
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: of compare the early stages of AI, come to the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: early stages of mobile, or the early stages of social
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: the early stages of the Internet, all of those industries
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: really struggled to make it in the first five years,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And for the Internet, it was really the first ten
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: years before we started to see real use case and
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: money being made out there because everybody thought it was
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: going to fall. Everybody thought it was going to die.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: It's going to kill us, you know, it's going to
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: be the end of humanity. Very similar things to what's
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: happening here. One thing that is surprising me, and I'm
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: not sure that there's not going to be more companies
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: that do this. This was a struggling shoe company that
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: jumps over this is all birds. I'm sure you guys
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: have probably seen all birds. You probably have a pair
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: and they made a bizarre pivot from a shoe company
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: to an AI company.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: And what I mean.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: By that is their plan was this right here, the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: move boasted shares. This is a minuscule market cap. It
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: was valued at twenty one million on Tuesday's close and
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: then jump seven hundred percent in the shares under three.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: This is just crazy.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: And the whole idea was they were going to go
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: in and do a fifty million in funding expecting to close.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: They're going to go in and they're going to initially
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: go after high performance, low latency AI compute hardware and
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: provide under long term lease arrangements, basically going after companies
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: that needed access to this kind of like mini boutique
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: you know, I.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: Guess AI data centers.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: But the companies going out and completely getting out of
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: the fast fashioned business and going into that. Why have
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: we seen more companies do this. I'm kind of curious
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: because there's companies out there that maybe could go in
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: this direction in the retail hospitality sector. Could be some
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: interesting plays coming up, especially after this move and the
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: kine of share impact it had. Other things I want
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: to hit on right now. The FED is now privately
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: preparing for a possible two trillion dollar credit market collapse.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg reported April eleventh that the FED has formally reached
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: out to US major banks for detailed information on how
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: much risk they're carrying from private credit and the stress
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: inside this sector could spread into a much wider financial
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: system problem. And this scares me a little bit because
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: it reminds me a little bit of what happened in
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: two thousand and eight.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: I would say, when.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: You look at private credit, the exposure has very similar cadences,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: and that's something to keep an eye on.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: Other things.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: If you look at this, this is a record number
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: of US consumers saying, hey, listen, my situation's much worse
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: compared to a year ago, and I'm still dealing with
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: higher prices. This has risen nine hundred percent since twenty
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: twenty one, during what I thought was the most and
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: worst time that we had had in American history. But
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: in reality, apparently it's twenty twenty that we're dealing with
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: that's having this problem. Clarity Act, though, is the issue
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: right now in crypto, and the one that is hitting
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: us right now is whether or not Clarity Act is
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: off the table, because it's off the Senate schedule next week.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Tim Scott has not scheduled the crypto market structure for
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: the week of twenty. Remember last week when Tim Scott
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: said I'm going to have the you know, the markup
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: on my desk later this week. Then it was on
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: my desk next week. Then it's not even on the schedule.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: So what does this mean right now? Because Tom tell
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: us he says the release of the final draft this
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: week last piece needed to be before Committee can still
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: get a mark up. Even then, the bill must aligned
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: with Cenate Agriculture of the pass, which is sixty four
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Senate vote, which needs Democrats to do it, then it
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: reconciles with the House. The point is there's a lot
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: of stuff that have to happen for this to even
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: get done. And if they missed the window, this thing
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: is off the calendar. You know, it doesn't happen till
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: after midterms, and then we have no idea what would
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: happen after midterms.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: This puts a lot of problem.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: But at the same time, with all of those you've
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: got right now, look at this jump from what was
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: around fifty eight percent, holding it around sixty one percent
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: on still getting into law this year, which is one
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: of the higher positions right now in the one day.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: If you look at the weekly, there's the climb right there.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: You go to the monthly been somewhat flat, but still climbing. Now,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: this is very unusual behavior for sure. Clarity mark update
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: is slipping. FED chair is taking centered stage, and that
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: is Kevin Walsh. He is set for a hearing on Tuesday.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: And this is going to get interesting because everybody thinks
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: that Wosh is going to do something super around.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: FED rate cuts.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: If you look at the possibility right now, it looks
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: as though we are not going to get a rate
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: cut before the end of twenty twenty six. And if
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: that is the case, and it continues to climb at
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: forty percent right now, that would mean that Trump is
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: getting bamboozled again by the FED chairs. And President Trump
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: says interest rates will drop once he gets in there.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Somebody's got to give here. I don't know if it's
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Trump was saying, Okay, work it out, just give me
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: my interest rates in twenty seven or Warsh. She's going to,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: you know, cave to the pressure. You tell me, do
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: you think we're going to see a rate drop when
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Warsh takes office later in the summer. Hit me down
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: below and let me know. I want to go to
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: a clip real quick. This is a clip of Trump
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: talking about Chair Powell.
• 10:37
  Speaker 6: And he said, he's not leaving. If you know, well,
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: then I'll have to fire him. Okay, if he's not
• 10:42
  Speaker 6: leaving on time, I've held back firing him. I've wanted
• 10:46
  Speaker 6: to fire him, but I hate to be controversial, you know,
• 10:50
  Speaker 6: I want to be uncontroversial. But and you think could
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: get confirmed, you think Tom Tillis.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Is going to give you I have to find out
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: he might die.
• 10:57
  Speaker 6: But that's why Tom Tillis is no longer a senator.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: On the aid of Tom Tillis is no longer senator, right, Well,
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: he's on his way out.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Well no, he quit, but he quit.
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: And I think he doesn't want the legacy of stopping
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: a great a person who could be great. I think
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: Kevin worsh is.
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: Going to be great.
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: He doesn't want the legacy of having an incompetent guy stated.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: All right, just remember that the guy's trying to fire
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: his Chair Powell, replacing with another guy he selected because
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: he selected Chair Powell going into this and now you
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: got warsh being selected. This is getting crazy out there, guys,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: And as you know, everybody's kind of been blowing up
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: the position of assets around Kevin Walsh being somewhat of
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: a djen. Here was Ryan Adams talking about let's not
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: get ahead of ourselves. This represents about zero point five
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: of Kevin Warsh's net worth. He probably had no idea
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: he was in directly owned a token called forends and benefits.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: It is possible, I mean that you know, these things
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: do happen through VC funds. But the point bo point
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: five right now in a in a raging bear market.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Imagine what this would be if eth is ten thousand,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: or if Bitcoin is one hundred and fifty, that point
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: five goes to maybe two, three, maybe four percent. So
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: it's not insignificant. It's still significant enough to be able
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: to mention it, and it has impact on it. But
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: it's interesting that everybody has been looking at that as
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: the only thing. I still think it's going to have
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: an implement an implementation effect on how it looks at
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: crypto markets in general. So let's leap over to Ethereum.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Here is BM and R, the largest Etheroreum treasury company,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: reporting a net loss of I'm not that's not a misprint, guys.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: That's three point eight billion in the quarter. That's the
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: net loss that BM and R would be taking right now.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: These times are very un usual, and of course Tom
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Lee is the ultimate perma bull here. He is saying
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: that we're going to keep growing even without the Clarity Act,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: with continued building outside the banking system, and he remains
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: bullish on Ethereum to reach sixty thousand dollars. Eth is
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: training at about twenty two hundred right now, sixty thousand. Here's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: a clip of Tom Lee giving you his predictions.
• 13:27
  Speaker 7: Our stock is tracking Ethereum. It frustrates people when Eth
• 13:30
  Speaker 7: goes down, but keep in mind, we're out performing Ethereum.
• 13:33
  Speaker 7: Last year, we started bitmine on June thirtieth. You can
• 13:37
  Speaker 7: see bitmind roast five hundred percent. Ethereum was only up
• 13:41
  Speaker 7: twenty two percent in that time, so we outperformed last
• 13:43
  Speaker 7: year by forty eight thousand basis points. This year, Ethereum
• 13:50
  Speaker 7: is down eighteen percent. Our stock's down fifteen so we're
• 13:53
  Speaker 7: out performing by three hundred ten basis points. And the
• 13:57
  Speaker 7: reason for that, of course, is that we're using capital
• 13:59
  Speaker 7: markets to grow your holdings of ETH. If Ethereum gets
• 14:03
  Speaker 7: to twenty two thousand, our stock price is five hundred,
• 14:07
  Speaker 7: which is a lot of upside. At sixty two thousand eighth,
• 14:11
  Speaker 7: which is what we think fair value is in a
• 14:13
  Speaker 7: few years, our stock is fifteen hundred.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: So all right, so keep this on here, right here,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: because I think this is important to note. Is he's
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: going from where we are right now. First you'd have
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: to ten x to twenty two k. You'd have to
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: ten x and there you are at sixty two at
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: fair value, putting BM and R at fifteen hundred a
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: share and is trading around twenty bucks. And then he's
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: going up to a quarter of what is Tom Lee
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: smoking over there?
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: I want to know. I think we should get some.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Of that because this is crazy talk. I'm a big
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: E fan, but I still think that's crazy talk. I
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: don't know, guys, there's a lot happening out there. I
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: still don't understand how the SMP is breaking all time
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: high in the middle of all this conflict, global macro,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: you know, implosion, private credit. If something is very off
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: in the market right now, we're going to continue to
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: cover it because things are a bit unusual. If you
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: like this video, like and subscribe, drop a comment down below,
• 15:17
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• 15:20
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description