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Midterm Madness: Previewing the Senate, the House, and More · 3 Martini Lunch – Political Humor & Commentary

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Three Martini Lunch.
0:04
Speaker 2: Grab a stool next to Greg Corumbus of Radio America
0:07
Speaker 2: and Jim Garrity of National Review. Three Martini's coming up.
0:13
Speaker 2: So glad you're with us for the Monday edition of
0:16
Speaker 2: the Three Martini Lunch. And this is a special edition
0:19
Speaker 2: of the Three Martini Lunch. We are through most of
0:22
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty six primary season, still some very important
0:25
Speaker 2: states to go, and how those key races will be
0:28
Speaker 2: shaped will be determined by those primaries. But for the
0:31
Speaker 2: most part, we have a pretty good idea how the
0:33
Speaker 2: key Senate race is, how the overall House and some
0:36
Speaker 2: of the key governor's races are already shaping up. And
0:39
Speaker 2: we still have a little more than four months until
0:42
Speaker 2: election day, So Jim, buckle up. It's not that far away.
0:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I must say this is the last time
0:49
Speaker 3: we've talked about this. Surprisingly, I can make a case
0:53
Speaker 3: for things getting a little bit better for Republicans at
0:55
Speaker 3: all three fronts. We should have no illusions. The overall
0:59
Speaker 3: political environment, at least as of this recording time for
1:01
Speaker 3: Republicans is pretty bad. By the time people hear this,
1:04
Speaker 3: I don't think we'll changed very much, But there are
1:07
Speaker 3: if you're looking for a silver lining, if you're looking
1:09
Speaker 3: for reasons for optimism, you can find them.
1:12
Speaker 1: And I kind of.
1:12
Speaker 3: Feel like at the peak of the war against Iran,
1:16
Speaker 3: I'm not and you know, the peak of gas prices,
1:18
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that was necessarily it was even harder
1:21
Speaker 3: to discern than it is today.
1:22
Speaker 2: So we're going to break this down. First, we'll talk Senate,
1:25
Speaker 2: then we'll talk House, then we'll talk governors. And so
1:28
Speaker 2: let's start with the Senate. Jim fifty three to forty
1:30
Speaker 2: seven Republicans right now, of course, but Republicans playing a
1:33
Speaker 2: lot of defense. They currently hold twenty four of the
1:36
Speaker 2: thirty three seats that are up for election this year.
1:39
Speaker 2: There are a couple of possible pickups, and there are
1:42
Speaker 2: a number of seats that the Democrats think they have
1:44
Speaker 2: a decent shot at, probably not as many as they claim,
1:47
Speaker 2: but nonetheless, we'll go through them. I think the one
1:50
Speaker 2: currently held Republican seat where the Democrats certainly have an
1:53
Speaker 2: advantage at the moment is North Carolina. Tom Tillis is retiring.
1:57
Speaker 2: Roy Cooper, the former governor two term governor, seems to
2:00
Speaker 2: have a lead over former RNC chairman Mike Wattley. I
2:02
Speaker 2: think that's their best pickup opportunity at the moment. I
2:06
Speaker 2: would say that Republicans have to play what I would
2:08
Speaker 2: call tough defense in a couple other states. As weird
2:11
Speaker 2: as it is, I still think Maine is potentially going
2:15
Speaker 2: to be close. I know the polls historically have not
2:18
Speaker 2: given Susan Collins her her fair shake, and she always
2:21
Speaker 2: proves them wrong on election day. But given how much
2:24
Speaker 2: Democrats are just willing to do anything to win, I'm
2:27
Speaker 2: a little bit concerned about that. In Alaska, we no
2:30
Speaker 2: longer have two Dan Sullivan's on the ballot, but still
2:33
Speaker 2: with the rank choice and all that stuff, I worry
2:35
Speaker 2: a little bit about Dan Sullivan against Mary.
2:37
Speaker 1: Peltola up there.
2:39
Speaker 2: And in Ohio, again, I think Republicans have the advantage,
2:41
Speaker 2: but I think it's still going to be a pretty
2:43
Speaker 2: tough race. Shared Brown's been around forever, like half a
2:46
Speaker 2: century in public life, and John Housted, of course, was
2:50
Speaker 2: the lieutenant governor appointed to replace Jade Vans and has
2:53
Speaker 2: not faced the electorate in this job. The one Republican
2:57
Speaker 2: pickup I am fairly optimistic about to depending on how
3:00
Speaker 2: the primary turns out, is Mike Rodgers potentially if he
3:03
Speaker 2: has to face a dual lsied in Michigan, if it's
3:07
Speaker 2: Congressman Haley Stevens, I think that probably is not as
3:09
Speaker 2: much of a Republican advantage. And then the ones where
3:12
Speaker 2: the Republicans potentially get close but not quite. I'm thinking Georgia,
3:16
Speaker 2: New Hampshire and Minnesota. But your mileage may vary four
3:20
Speaker 2: months out.
3:21
Speaker 3: My mileage does not vary right very much. Right now,
3:25
Speaker 3: I look at Wattlee, and I see a candidate who's
3:27
Speaker 3: perfectly fine. But I think in this kind of political
3:31
Speaker 3: environment in a state like North Carolina, I'm not sure
3:33
Speaker 3: perfectly fine is going to do it. I think when
3:35
Speaker 3: you've got headwinds that he's going into, that's going to
3:38
Speaker 3: be very challenging. Just insert Nazi jokes here. When it
3:42
Speaker 3: comes to the main Senate race, yes, you know, Susan
3:45
Speaker 3: Collins traditionally overperforms her polls by a considerable margin. But
3:50
Speaker 3: I will point out, like two weird things about this
3:54
Speaker 3: one is that Graham Platner Cram Plattner. First of all,
4:00
Speaker 3: he's like his national fundraising is off the charts. The
4:03
Speaker 3: controversies are making Democrats want to support him more. Now
4:09
Speaker 3: you can insert, you know, nazi that Democrats have always
4:12
Speaker 3: been into socialists, now they're into the nationalist socialist variety.
4:16
Speaker 3: You can point out that, you know, hearing that he
4:18
Speaker 3: had beaten up Republican operatives in relationships earlier. This is
4:21
Speaker 3: appealing to the typical Democratic grassroots donor part of the
4:24
Speaker 3: darkness of my humor here. But like so like, there's
4:27
Speaker 3: a part of it, like the things that you would
4:29
Speaker 3: think would make people back away and say, oh wow,
4:32
Speaker 3: we do not want to be too closely associated with
4:35
Speaker 3: this guy. Few and far between Democratic officeholders willing to
4:39
Speaker 3: say they're not willing to endorse Platner, and the Democratic
4:42
Speaker 3: grass roots are embracing him wholeheartedly. Again, I think Susan
4:45
Speaker 3: Collins is a very effective candidate. I think she's got
4:48
Speaker 3: a real basis support in Maine that doesn't necessarily show
4:50
Speaker 3: up in the polling. But it makes me a little nervous.
4:53
Speaker 3: This is almost Beto level enthusiasm. But you mentioned on
4:57
Speaker 3: this race. We did not mention tall Rico in the
5:00
Speaker 3: Senate race in Texas. That was deliberate. We do not
5:02
Speaker 3: think this is a particularly good opportunity for Democrats. I
5:06
Speaker 3: would feel better if John Cornyn with the nominee instead
5:08
Speaker 3: of Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton brings a lot more baggage
5:11
Speaker 3: to this race than the luggage terminal at Dulles. But
5:15
Speaker 3: I think in the end of being Texas, this is
5:17
Speaker 3: going to be a tex you know, a Republican state.
5:19
Speaker 3: Do you have me a little nervous. Ohio and Iowa
5:23
Speaker 3: and things like those are two states that have been
5:25
Speaker 3: really read, particularly in the Trump era, and so it's
5:28
Speaker 3: one of those things where the fact that Republicans are
5:30
Speaker 3: sweating this is probably a not great sign if you're
5:34
Speaker 3: looking for a good you know, as you said, you know,
5:35
Speaker 3: Republican pickup opportunities that could kind of balance all this out.
5:39
Speaker 1: Again, Michigan looks good.
5:41
Speaker 3: We are big fans of the snu New family on
5:43
Speaker 3: this podcast, in part because Chris Sununu was one of
5:46
Speaker 3: the eight or nine guests we've had on this podcast.
5:49
Speaker 3: You know, there's now another snu New, his brother running
5:51
Speaker 3: first Senate up in New Hampshire. Again, I think in
5:54
Speaker 3: a normal political environment, you'd feel good if you've got
5:56
Speaker 3: a president who's got an approval rating in the high thirties,
5:59
Speaker 3: low forties. That is suboptimal. If you're trying to win
6:02
Speaker 3: an open seat in a swing state. And then finally,
6:05
Speaker 3: I keep hearing Republicans saying that they think they have
6:09
Speaker 3: a shot at knocking off John Ossoff. I am not
6:12
Speaker 3: sure about that. John Ossoff has had this remarkable ability,
6:15
Speaker 3: and there's an unnerving amount of you know, Rosoff should
6:20
Speaker 3: run for president type talk. I'm just used to things
6:23
Speaker 3: not going right for Republicans in Georgia center races, which
6:26
Speaker 3: has been the case for quite a few now. So
6:29
Speaker 3: if Republicans can break this habit, terrific. But this is
6:32
Speaker 3: just not a state where Republicans can nominate just anybody
6:36
Speaker 3: and beat a Democrat.
6:37
Speaker 1: And they really can't do it.
6:38
Speaker 3: Against an incumbent who'sn't be able to point to, oh,
6:40
Speaker 3: look at all these things I've done for the state,
6:41
Speaker 3: blah blah blah.
6:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting. The New Hampshire primary hasn't happened yet.
6:45
Speaker 2: So it's John Sanunu, who was a former senator defeated
6:48
Speaker 2: by Jeene Shaheen back in two thousand and eight. He's
6:51
Speaker 2: up against Scott Brown. I think Johnsonuno is probably going
6:53
Speaker 2: to be the nominee. Chris Pappis is the Democrat nominee,
6:56
Speaker 2: and for some reason, his fundraising pitches are constantly in
6:59
Speaker 2: my inbox. I don't know if he still thinks I'm
7:01
Speaker 2: Doris or whatever, but I gotta tell you he's looking.
7:05
Speaker 1: For support in Michigan. Greg, that's why you're getting.
7:07
Speaker 2: All the maybe so yeah, and then we'll see, obviously
7:11
Speaker 2: what happens in the Democratic primary in Michigan. Some Republicans
7:15
Speaker 2: think that Minnesota's potentially a chance this year. Peggy Flan again,
7:19
Speaker 2: the lieutenant governor, is really really far left, and she's
7:23
Speaker 2: probably going to be the nominee over Congressman Angie Craig,
7:26
Speaker 2: and our friend Michelle Tafoya is probably going to be
7:29
Speaker 2: the Republican nominee. There is a Navy seal in that
7:31
Speaker 2: race who I think is making it somewhat competitive. But again,
7:35
Speaker 2: in a normal environment, maybe, but in a year where
7:38
Speaker 2: the left is all whipped up over Minneapolis and Ice
7:40
Speaker 2: and you know, just the general political climate, I think
7:43
Speaker 2: that might be a bridge too far for Republicans. There
7:47
Speaker 2: a couple others. We got two states this year, Jim
7:49
Speaker 2: where the Democrats are pretending that they're not supporting the
7:52
Speaker 2: independent candidate. Dan Osborne is back in Nebraska, and it's
7:56
Speaker 2: so obvious there that the Democratic candidate, her name is
7:58
Speaker 2: Cindy Burbank won them Mary and immediately dropped out of
8:01
Speaker 2: the general election to support the independent, not that that's
8:04
Speaker 2: an indication of anything. He's totally independent. And then in Montana,
8:08
Speaker 2: where Steve Danes is retiring, we have the Republican Kurt
8:12
Speaker 2: on me the Democrat Elani Bankhead, who to her credit,
8:15
Speaker 2: is staying in the race, but a lot of the
8:18
Speaker 2: Democratic money is going to a former university president named
8:21
Speaker 2: Seth Bodnar. So right now, two seventy to win has
8:23
Speaker 2: Montana deep red. So I'm not too worried about that yet.
8:27
Speaker 2: But Democrats are going to keep trying this and hopefully
8:30
Speaker 2: it still doesn't work.
8:31
Speaker 3: You know, two years ago, a Democratic pundit who shall
8:35
Speaker 3: remain nameless was appearing with me and said, you're really
8:37
Speaker 3: sleeping on dan Osbourne. This is this is you know,
8:40
Speaker 3: going to be the upset and I was like, really,
8:42
Speaker 3: that's a very red state. Lost by six seven points.
8:46
Speaker 3: It was not that competitive there was the only polls
8:48
Speaker 3: that ever showed dan Osbourne ahead were released by his campaign.
8:53
Speaker 3: I look at this like this was entirely a mirage.
8:55
Speaker 3: This was entirely you know, the campaign hyping and fooling
8:58
Speaker 3: very global reporters. I guess to trying the same playbook.
9:01
Speaker 3: We'll see how that happens. Again, this is a better
9:03
Speaker 3: political environment for Democrats now than it was two years ago,
9:07
Speaker 3: so maybe they think they got a better shot here
9:09
Speaker 3: Minnesota's it's no surprise. We love Michelle Tafoya, one of
9:12
Speaker 3: the again one of the very few guests we've had
9:14
Speaker 3: on this program. But even if you were gonna like,
9:16
Speaker 3: let's say, you know, okay, let's let's elect a Democrat
9:19
Speaker 3: Peggy Flanagan like she was, you know, Tim Wallas's right
9:22
Speaker 3: hand man, what's the sales pitch.
9:24
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep I'm gonna watch.
9:25
Speaker 3: For fraud in the Senate as much as I watched
9:27
Speaker 3: for fraud in the Minnesota state government. You know. But again,
9:31
Speaker 3: this is the whole country is met at Trump, med
9:33
Speaker 3: at the incumbents, mad at the status quo, and it
9:36
Speaker 3: seems like they're, you know, on a track to elect
9:38
Speaker 3: a lot of Democrats. So Minnesota is always a tough
9:40
Speaker 3: state for Republicans. You thought maybe they frustrate Tim Wallas
9:44
Speaker 3: was going to run for a third term, and that
9:46
Speaker 3: was going to be going to be a big ask
9:47
Speaker 3: of a dissatisfied electorate.
9:49
Speaker 1: But not looking good out there.
9:50
Speaker 2: Not right now, And you briefly mentioned Iowa. That's where
9:53
Speaker 2: Joni Ernst is retiring. That is considered a toss up
9:56
Speaker 2: right now between Congressman Ashley Hinson and state re Sentative
10:00
Speaker 2: Josh Turek. Weird twist in that case, Hinson easily won
10:03
Speaker 2: the primary, and her Republican opponent in that race, again
10:07
Speaker 2: by the name of Jim Carlin, urged voters to not
10:10
Speaker 2: support her. Didn't endorse the Democrat, but encourage people to
10:14
Speaker 2: not support her. So if there's you know, already some
10:17
Speaker 2: fractures in the party in a tight race, that could
10:20
Speaker 2: be trouble. But I wouldn't put that in the in
10:22
Speaker 2: the danger column just yet. All right, Well, we still
10:25
Speaker 2: got the House and the governorships to go, and Jim,
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11:50
Speaker 2: In a midterm election where the president is a Republican,
11:54
Speaker 2: the map should be leaning towards the Democrats, and I
11:57
Speaker 2: think overall, in the end it probably will. But because
12:01
Speaker 2: of the redistricting wars, Republicans for the most part seem
12:04
Speaker 2: to have come out ahead. And it all depends on
12:06
Speaker 2: whether they actually win those seats, of course, but at
12:09
Speaker 2: least on paper, they added those seats. In Texas, I'm
12:13
Speaker 2: a little dubious on that. They carved a lot of
12:15
Speaker 2: new supposedly Republican districts out of deeply Latino areas that
12:19
Speaker 2: went for Trump in twenty twenty four, and I think
12:21
Speaker 2: they assume they're going to stay red forever. The Latino
12:24
Speaker 2: numbers for Donald Trump are not great right now, so
12:26
Speaker 2: we'll see exactly what happens there. California, of course countered that.
12:29
Speaker 2: I think they're going to.
12:30
Speaker 1: Pick up at least five seats there.
12:31
Speaker 2: They would have gotten four more in Virginia until the
12:34
Speaker 2: state supreme courts stepped in and pointed out that they
12:37
Speaker 2: this whole process was unconstitutional. The Supreme Court decision probably
12:40
Speaker 2: adds a Republican seat in both Alabama and Louisiana, Missouri
12:45
Speaker 2: and North Carolina. Republicans as well as Utah Democrats have
12:50
Speaker 2: tinkered with the map to get some seats in there favor.
12:53
Speaker 2: So I think that's a net win for Republicans. And
12:56
Speaker 2: if you look at some of the projections out there,
12:59
Speaker 2: Larry Sabato's ball, and if you've spent any time on
13:01
Speaker 2: X over the last dozen years, you know Larry Sabato
13:04
Speaker 2: is not a fan of the Donald Trump and Republicans.
13:07
Speaker 2: Right now, he's got Republicans two thirteen Democrats two six
13:10
Speaker 2: and sixteen toss ups, but thirteen of those tossups are
13:14
Speaker 2: held by Republicans. Cook Political GOP two twelve Dems two
13:18
Speaker 2: oh five toss ups eighteen and inside elections GOP two
13:22
Speaker 2: seventeen Dems two oh four toss ups fourteen. So in
13:26
Speaker 2: none of those do Republicans have the projection of an
13:28
Speaker 2: outright majority of though they get pretty close in that
13:31
Speaker 2: inside elections one. So Jim, you know this is the
13:34
Speaker 2: one I think where the tide of gas prices grocery
13:38
Speaker 2: prices tend to potentially have an impact more than some
13:41
Speaker 2: statewide races. But some unusual circumstances this time around. So
13:46
Speaker 2: your what's your current outlook.
13:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, around mid May, I feel like I'd seen a
13:50
Speaker 3: lot of discussion about redistricting wars and what Texas did,
13:53
Speaker 3: and what California did and various states, and you know,
13:56
Speaker 3: Virginia went through with THEIRS and then they had to
13:58
Speaker 3: take it away by the state Supreme Court said no,
14:01
Speaker 3: this violated the constitution.
14:02
Speaker 1: Maryland tried to do it. So I tried. I went
14:04
Speaker 1: through everything that.
14:05
Speaker 3: Was done as of that date, and I said, okay,
14:08
Speaker 3: based on what people say of how they redrew the lines,
14:11
Speaker 3: how does it came out? And I came out with
14:13
Speaker 3: eight districts that are now more friendly for Republicans than
14:16
Speaker 3: they were before.
14:17
Speaker 1: Nationwide. That balances it out.
14:19
Speaker 3: And you'll look at that, you're like, well, that's great,
14:20
Speaker 3: but that assumes that Texas is getting you know, there's
14:23
Speaker 3: like five more Republican seats coming out of that. I
14:26
Speaker 3: will be kind of surprised if it shakes out that way.
14:29
Speaker 3: And look, maybe the Democrats nominate some real dufust candidates
14:33
Speaker 3: who are you give you know, Republicans a lot of
14:37
Speaker 3: you know, a target rich environment.
14:39
Speaker 1: But you know that's lessoning, So I don't.
14:41
Speaker 3: Think you can count on and you know, the GOP
14:44
Speaker 3: House majority is four seats right now at the top
14:46
Speaker 3: of my head.
14:47
Speaker 2: It's always fluctuating, but it's right around there.
14:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, as of this recording, and members of Congress
14:52
Speaker 3: are dropping like flies.
14:53
Speaker 1: But basically it's already thin. You look at oh, that's eight,
14:58
Speaker 1: that gives.
14:58
Speaker 3: Them twelve, and it's you know, but if you don't
15:00
Speaker 3: have that five, then it's really only up three, which
15:03
Speaker 3: gets to puts you to about seven. So I said,
15:06
Speaker 3: so I was like, okay, where are the seats where
15:09
Speaker 3: separate from all this, Republicans could pick up a seat
15:11
Speaker 3: that's currently held by the Democrats by way certain years.
15:14
Speaker 1: I think back in two.
15:15
Speaker 3: Thousand and six, they did not knock off a single
15:17
Speaker 3: Democratic incumbent and they did not win any previously Democratic
15:21
Speaker 3: held open seats. So in a bad year, you may
15:24
Speaker 3: get none of the seemingly low hanging fruit. With that
15:27
Speaker 3: in mind, Maine second District, Maine is going to be
15:30
Speaker 3: very hot this year. I should go up and do
15:31
Speaker 3: a a vacation. I mean, I've worked at reporting trip
15:35
Speaker 3: up there. Maine is delightful in summer. One time, it
15:38
Speaker 3: just fantastic, you know, winter miserable. Nonetheless, I went there
15:43
Speaker 3: and there is some good news in that Matt Dunlap
15:46
Speaker 3: won the Democratic primary. So Main's got two districts. Maine
15:49
Speaker 3: first district heavily lefty, heavily Democratic, you don't have a
15:52
Speaker 3: shot at it. Maine's second district is the one that
15:54
Speaker 3: Trump keeps winning, so he gets one of the electoral
15:56
Speaker 3: votes from the state, and it's kind of centrist. And
16:00
Speaker 3: the Democrat who won the nominee, Matt Dunlap, is backed
16:03
Speaker 3: by Bernie Sanders. This is not the candidate the d
16:05
Speaker 3: triples he wanted. Paul Lapage, the former governor, is the
16:08
Speaker 3: Republican nominee. As far as open seat races go, this
16:12
Speaker 3: is a pretty good shot for Republicans. So they have
16:15
Speaker 3: opportunities where they could win some of them. There are
16:17
Speaker 3: some other ones, and I went over the list. Don
16:19
Speaker 3: Davis in North Carolina, but I gotta tell you, like
16:21
Speaker 3: he's always on the list, and he always finds he
16:24
Speaker 3: tends to find some way to hang on, you.
16:26
Speaker 1: Know, Derrek tran and Arche County.
16:29
Speaker 3: Suzy Lean in California, Susi Leon Nevada, Tom Suzzi in
16:34
Speaker 3: New York, Gabe Vesquez.
16:36
Speaker 1: New Mexico.
16:37
Speaker 3: Some of these districts, I feel like I see them
16:39
Speaker 3: on the this one could swing list every year, and
16:42
Speaker 3: they don't always swing the way Republicans want them to.
16:45
Speaker 3: So again, I don't want to overstate Republican odds here,
16:48
Speaker 3: but I do look at this and I'm like, Okay,
16:50
Speaker 3: you can see a scenario where Republicans retain control of
16:53
Speaker 3: the House. It's not a great scenario, it's not particularly
16:56
Speaker 3: high odds scenario, but I do feel like you add
16:59
Speaker 3: up the the redistricting cases where Democrats may not have
17:04
Speaker 3: gotten the candidate that they wanted, and just other factors,
17:08
Speaker 3: and it's you know, it's a non zero chance of
17:10
Speaker 3: Republicans keeping the House, but it's an epicularly great one.
17:14
Speaker 3: And I think, you know, again, with president of job
17:16
Speaker 3: disapproval rating is it fifty six fifty seven percent, it's
17:20
Speaker 3: really tough to keep control of the House in circumstance
17:22
Speaker 3: like that.
17:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if you had to bet right now,
17:25
Speaker 2: and I don't bet, but if you did have to bet,
17:27
Speaker 2: I'd say Republicans do keep the Senate, probably slightly narrower
17:31
Speaker 2: than they currently have it, and Democrats probably take the
17:33
Speaker 2: House by but probably not by as much as they
17:35
Speaker 2: would have because of the redistricting that was done. Jim,
17:38
Speaker 2: I just finally thought of one positive from the Gavin
17:42
Speaker 2: Newsom Jerrymander out there in California. Because there are really
17:47
Speaker 2: not any swing districts, or very few swing districts, we
17:49
Speaker 2: probably won't be waiting weeks on California to determine who
17:52
Speaker 2: has the majority in the House of Representatives. I'm really
17:55
Speaker 2: digging for a silver lining to this, but I think
17:57
Speaker 2: that's it.
17:58
Speaker 1: Kind of tarnished silver. But yeah, I'll take it amazing.
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19:43
Speaker 2: in Florida. All right, Jim, let's talk governorships. And not
19:51
Speaker 2: only is this obviously critically important in some of the
19:53
Speaker 2: most competitive states in the country, but whoever wins these
19:56
Speaker 2: races will also be very important when it comes to
19:59
Speaker 2: the two twenty twenty eight presidential race and what happens
20:02
Speaker 2: with the state government in those races. And so, you know,
20:06
Speaker 2: the same swing states we saw I'm twenty twenty four,
20:08
Speaker 2: A lot of those have governors races up. We've got Wisconsin,
20:12
Speaker 2: Tony Evers not running for reelection. In Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer
20:15
Speaker 2: is term limited. In Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro's running for reelection
20:19
Speaker 2: against a woman named Garrity. In Georgia, Brian Kemp is
20:24
Speaker 2: term limited, and so I think Rick Jackson has the
20:28
Speaker 2: edge there over Keisha Lance Bottoms, but you never know exactly.
20:31
Speaker 2: And then we also think we have some toss ups
20:33
Speaker 2: in Arizona and Nevada, possibly a tight race in Ohio
20:37
Speaker 2: Vivek round Oswami the Republican nominee there. People are expecting
20:41
Speaker 2: that to be a pretty competitive race, and then Iowa
20:44
Speaker 2: as well. Jim, I'd have to say Democrats probably have
20:47
Speaker 2: the edge in Pennsylvania, probably have the edge in Wisconsin,
20:50
Speaker 2: probably have the edge in Michigan, which could be a
20:52
Speaker 2: problem from Mike Rodgers as well, depending on who the
20:54
Speaker 2: Senate nominee for the Democrats is there. Again, I do
20:57
Speaker 2: think that the Republicans probably hold on in Georgia, and
21:01
Speaker 2: then a bunch of toss ups there in the Southwest.
21:03
Speaker 2: So what are you looking at most carefully?
21:04
Speaker 3: Well, in theory, a governor's race should be an area
21:08
Speaker 3: where a Republican candidate can distance themselves from Trump if
21:11
Speaker 3: Trump is unpopular in their state. But maybe we're an
21:14
Speaker 3: environment where it's really difficult for any Republican to be
21:17
Speaker 3: able to do that. I thought, I've been thinking a
21:19
Speaker 3: lot about Pennsylvania's governor's race. Josh Shapiro running for reelection.
21:22
Speaker 3: Josh Shapiro expected to win, and possibly win handily. I
21:27
Speaker 3: was a fan of garrity not spelled differently by the way,
21:29
Speaker 3: but nonetheless, you know, really one of the best surnames
21:32
Speaker 3: in politics. But unfortunately, you know, Shapiro is a heavy favorite.
21:37
Speaker 3: When I've talked to Pennsylvania Republicans, they're like, look, Stacey
21:40
Speaker 3: Garrity is a much better candidate than the very maga,
21:45
Speaker 3: very you know, little known, kind of almost a gadfly
21:48
Speaker 3: candidate who challenged Shapiro last time.
21:49
Speaker 1: So Shapiro really did.
21:50
Speaker 3: Like people are saying, this is the first time Shapiro
21:52
Speaker 3: is going to have a real opponent that's got able
21:56
Speaker 3: to fund raise, and it is not some joke of candidate.
22:00
Speaker 1: Really.
22:00
Speaker 3: As Pennsylvania Republicans nervous is that the state Senate is
22:03
Speaker 3: very close. I believe they hold that they have a
22:05
Speaker 3: two seat majority. Shapiro, feeling pretty confident about winning and
22:10
Speaker 3: with ambitions to run for president in twenty twenty eight,
22:12
Speaker 3: very much wants to win those Senate races. Wants to
22:14
Speaker 3: get the trifecta, wants to get a fully democratic state
22:17
Speaker 3: legislature so then he can then pass everything he wants
22:20
Speaker 3: to do. To make a sales pitch to Democrats and say,
22:24
Speaker 3: look at all these wonderful progressive things that I've done.
22:27
Speaker 3: Overlook the fact that I'm Jewish. Overlook the fact that
22:29
Speaker 3: I support is reel. Don't you know some of my
22:32
Speaker 3: best friends are anti Semites, you know that kind of
22:34
Speaker 3: you know, sales pitch that he's going to try to
22:35
Speaker 3: make there. So I think Shapiro's to say, for Bet,
22:38
Speaker 3: I think there's a real desire on the part of Republicans.
22:41
Speaker 1: Can we, you know, muss his hair a little bit?
22:43
Speaker 1: Can we get a little mud on him?
22:44
Speaker 3: Can we, you know, put some dents in his armor
22:46
Speaker 3: along the way of this, so we'll see what happens there.
22:49
Speaker 1: You're right that.
22:50
Speaker 3: Otherwise it's kind of slim pickings for a bunch of this.
22:52
Speaker 3: Republicans say they've got a chance at Kansas. Governor Laura
22:57
Speaker 3: Kelly is one, you know, pretty sizeable back back.
23:00
Speaker 1: Victories twenty eighteen, twenty eight, eighty two.
23:02
Speaker 3: But it's Kansas. It's still a pretty Republican leaning state.
23:05
Speaker 3: They feel pretty good about that. Your former home state
23:08
Speaker 3: of Michigan, but former for everybody over the Secretary of
23:10
Speaker 3: State's office who keeps sending you ballots if you want
23:13
Speaker 3: a candidate, Congressman John James is about as good as
23:15
Speaker 3: you're gonna find. There are a whole bunch of these candidates.
23:18
Speaker 3: I kind of like to see them in a more
23:19
Speaker 3: neutral environment or an environment where they had a Republican
23:22
Speaker 3: wind at their back. The country was exasperated with, you know,
23:26
Speaker 3: Democrats something like that. You know, Katie Hobbs, no one's
23:29
Speaker 3: ever going to say that she is a whirling dervish
23:31
Speaker 3: of raw political charisma. You know, Trump won Arizona last time.
23:35
Speaker 3: But you know, Andy Biggs and David Schweikert are competing
23:39
Speaker 3: for the primary out there. We'll see how that shakes
23:41
Speaker 3: out again. It's a swing state. There's Republicans should have
23:44
Speaker 3: a chance there. But you can kind of say that
23:46
Speaker 3: about Wisconsin as well. You know, there are a bunch
23:48
Speaker 3: of a couple of term limited governors out there. But
23:51
Speaker 3: really this is as I've looked over at the governor's races, like, oh,
23:54
Speaker 3: come on, there's got to be some good opportunities for
23:56
Speaker 3: pickups here, and they're they're really haven't. You know, there
23:59
Speaker 3: was some bce, some stretches that by some definitions of
24:02
Speaker 3: Virginia's sort of swing statey and we did not look
24:04
Speaker 3: like swing state last time. So when the political environment
24:07
Speaker 3: is against you, it could really be against you.
24:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, And Katie Hobbs might be the weirdest governor in America,
24:12
Speaker 2: which is saying a lot when you consider you have
24:14
Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom and JB. Pritsker and some of these other
24:17
Speaker 2: people out there. But the fact that she basically went
24:19
Speaker 2: into the witness relocation program during the campaign four years ago,
24:23
Speaker 2: and now there's a couple of different ethical clouds hanging
24:25
Speaker 2: over her. Like you said, we'll see who wins between
24:27
Speaker 2: Biggs and Schweikert, two Republican members of Congress now going
24:31
Speaker 2: for the governor's nomination out there in Arizona. But once
24:34
Speaker 2: he's well, John Gabriel should be the next governor of Arizona.
24:38
Speaker 2: So best wishes to John. Of course, final thoughts, John,
24:42
Speaker 2: k his.
24:43
Speaker 3: Entire platform would be about hydration in the Arizona heat,
24:46
Speaker 3: all every campaign poster with his mug right in front
24:49
Speaker 3: of them.
24:50
Speaker 2: Oh, that would be awesome, all right in a moment,
24:52
Speaker 2: our final thoughts on the twenty twenty six midterms four
24:55
Speaker 2: months out, All right, Jim, as we head for the
25:04
Speaker 2: exits here with our current look at the midterms, obviously
25:07
Speaker 2: things can fluctuate considerably before we get to November. My
25:11
Speaker 2: thought here this is kind of a big litmus test
25:13
Speaker 2: for Bernie Sanders. It feels like the socialists have kind
25:16
Speaker 2: of grabbed the mainstream of the Democratic Party. He is
25:19
Speaker 2: rolling the dice big on people like Platner and l
25:21
Speaker 2: Sied And if they well, Platt already has the nomination.
25:24
Speaker 2: If el Said wins the nomination and both of them win,
25:27
Speaker 2: he's going to have a lot of sway over the
25:29
Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight field. If they both lose, I think
25:32
Speaker 2: that takes some shine off of Bernie's momentum. But what
25:35
Speaker 2: are you looking at this?
25:36
Speaker 3: You know you can make an argument greg that since
25:38
Speaker 3: I know, depending on how far back you want to go.
25:41
Speaker 3: Two thousand and six, there's been this sense of, ah,
25:43
Speaker 3: I'm very upset with the status quo. I'm voting against
25:45
Speaker 3: the majority. I want change two thousand and six. Then
25:48
Speaker 3: Obama running two thousand and eight open change, and then
25:51
Speaker 3: in twenty ten, America's like, oh, we don't want that
25:53
Speaker 3: at all. Let's elect a bunch of Republicans. They elected
25:55
Speaker 3: a bunch of Republicans, and then they re elect Obama
25:57
Speaker 3: because like, oh, well, we.
25:58
Speaker 1: Don't want it. Romney, and then of course two.
26:00
Speaker 3: Out of fourteen makes twenty ten look mild by comparison,
26:03
Speaker 3: Republicans win control of the Senate and one of the
26:05
Speaker 3: happiest you know, election nights. I can recall being down
26:09
Speaker 3: in Texas doing Glenn Beeck's program.
26:10
Speaker 1: You know.
26:11
Speaker 3: Then in twenty sixteen, Trump wins some modest Republican gains there.
26:14
Speaker 1: But oh but country doesn't want that. We're going to
26:16
Speaker 1: switch back to twenty eighteen.
26:17
Speaker 3: Although Republicans did win two Senate seats, the map was
26:20
Speaker 3: pretty preferable towards that. Twenty twenty Trump loses, Republicans lose,
26:24
Speaker 3: Democrats have the House and Senate. Then you end up
26:26
Speaker 3: with twenty twenty two, which we expected to be a
26:28
Speaker 3: red wave, particularly with high inflation earlier that year didn't
26:32
Speaker 3: really pan out that way unless they want to look
26:33
Speaker 3: at you know, Florida went well, but otherwise it was
26:35
Speaker 3: a red splitsh splash. They won control of the House
26:38
Speaker 3: by a very small majority. And then in twenty twenty four,
26:41
Speaker 3: it's like that delayed reaction. The country was very frustrated
26:43
Speaker 3: with Biden, very upset with Harris. Let's elect Trump. Well,
26:47
Speaker 3: here we are approaching two years later, a great deal
26:49
Speaker 3: of dissatisfaction with President Trump. Not a great deal of
26:52
Speaker 3: love for the Republicans and majorities in Congress, which are
26:54
Speaker 3: pretty small as is, Dear America, I understand why you're
26:59
Speaker 3: frustrated with the status. Well, change is not always a
27:02
Speaker 3: synonym for improvement. And if you're like, oh, I don't
27:05
Speaker 3: like what's going. I really don't like high taxes, I
27:07
Speaker 3: really don't like inflation. I really don't like the high
27:09
Speaker 3: cost of living. I really don't like runaway spending. I'm
27:11
Speaker 3: gonna lect some Democrats. No, you're doing this wrong. That's
27:14
Speaker 3: not the way you make things better. That it's not
27:16
Speaker 3: the way you go back to actually actual conservative Republicans
27:19
Speaker 3: who belong in the limited government. So I'm not optimistic
27:22
Speaker 3: for Republican chances right now, I think, but I will
27:24
Speaker 3: point out a couple weeks as I said, a couple
27:26
Speaker 3: of weeks ago, I would have felt worse. You know,
27:29
Speaker 3: as of this recording, guests prices are down, the national
27:32
Speaker 3: average is down about twenty some cents. It's below four
27:34
Speaker 3: dollars a gallon. That's, you know, an improvement from you know,
27:38
Speaker 3: two months ago. Not great overall, And when you look
27:41
Speaker 3: I looked it up, we were paying about three twenty two.
27:43
Speaker 1: A year ago. So it feels more expensive.
27:45
Speaker 3: Big question is going to be how much can you
27:48
Speaker 3: get the perception of the economy to improve between now
27:53
Speaker 3: and I was going to say November, but as we know,
27:55
Speaker 3: we have election month in this country, not election day
27:58
Speaker 3: here in Virginia, and I belie even Minnesota and one
28:01
Speaker 3: other state they start voting in late September. So you know,
28:04
Speaker 3: the cement starts to dry pretty fast once it's you know,
28:07
Speaker 3: past labor day. So the question is how much can
28:09
Speaker 3: you get gas prices down? How much can you get
28:12
Speaker 3: the inflation rate down? How much can you get people
28:13
Speaker 3: to feel like, oh, the worst is behind us, the
28:16
Speaker 3: economy is improving. I'm feeling better about things. If you
28:19
Speaker 3: get the present to focus on that and not talk
28:21
Speaker 3: about a big, fancy ballroom or the reflecting pool or
28:25
Speaker 3: any of these other topics. If you can get the
28:27
Speaker 3: present to wed here's what we're doing on affordability. Here's
28:30
Speaker 3: what we're doing to make life less expensive for you.
28:31
Speaker 3: Here's what we're doing. You know, that might help Republicans,
28:34
Speaker 3: They might win someone, you know, on the margins. However,
28:37
Speaker 3: you know we're now into summer. You know, the two
28:41
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty anniversary is coming, up. It's you know,
28:44
Speaker 3: the time to change people's perceptions of the state of
28:46
Speaker 3: the country is shrinking rapidly.
28:48
Speaker 2: It gets late early out there, as Yogi Berr used
28:50
Speaker 2: to say. So Jim, I'm sure we'll have plenty to
28:52
Speaker 2: say as we get closer and closer to midterm election day.
28:55
Speaker 2: But good to kind of pause here in the middle
28:57
Speaker 2: of the summer and you know what, most of the
29:00
Speaker 2: primaries behind us to kind of take a look at
29:02
Speaker 2: where things are likely headed, at least as of now.
29:04
Speaker 2: So fun to do that as always, And I'll see tomorrow.
29:07
Speaker 1: See tomorrow, Greg, Jim.
29:08
Speaker 2: Garretty, National Review. I'm Greg Corumbus of Radio America. Thanks
29:11
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29:13
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