Latest / The Tyler Show / Q3 Washington Insights - Looking Beyond the Headlines

Transcript

Q3 Washington Insights - Looking Beyond the Headlines · The Tyler Show

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Tyler Show.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Tyler Dahan, and we are coming to you from the Salmons Financial Group studios in West Des Moines, Iowa.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: We have Tyler Brown, Vice President of Governmental Affairs here.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining us.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's always a pleasure, Tyler.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, it's great to be here as always, Tyler.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: So Notre Dame.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: 4-0.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: It's a buzzsaw, man.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: Too bad for the other teams.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Number three in the country.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: So still thinking playoff bound?
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I think so.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm uh, like many Irish fans, very eager for the big contest in November.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: We got the hurricanes coming to town, and they're uh it's gonna be uh it's gonna be very uh rowdy in South Bend for that night.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you that much.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: But how about those Hawkeyes?
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: So oh my goodness.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: You know, every once in a while we get thrown a little bone.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Did you see the post-game win expectancy was like five percent for I mean that's just a classic Iowa move?
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we it's it's just fairness, you know, stay in the game, stay in the game.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now it also comes to bite us in the, you know, bites us on the other side too.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, it's it it every once in a while we get one of those wins.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I I keep reminding myself here, it's early.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: We're only a third of the way through the season.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: So when we're we're doing this podcast, it's you know, end of September, you know, third way through the season.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know what's going to happen here.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: And but hey, when anytime you can go into Michigan and steal a win, yeah, I'll take it.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, as a Notre Dame fan, I appreciated it.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you that much.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's always a good day when Notre Dame wins, Michigan loses, and USC gets embarrassed.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: So that's uh that's a that's a great day for an Irish.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: And and and I'm I'm typically one of those Iowa fans that's like, all right, let's let's let's let's keep the the the ship level.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: So when they when that whole game was going on and we got the punt and on the what the 11-yard line, I'm like, well, you know, it was a good try.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then just play after play after play happened, and then actually, funny story, when he caught that pass, I jumped up and I started screaming.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And our dog has a shot collar, and the shot collar started going off.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: I did I didn't mean to do it, but you know, it is what it is.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: So anyway, um, for those of you who have this is your first time here uh looking at their being at the Tyler show, we typically do a cadence here, yeah, regulation, legislation, and then elections.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: And then we kind of circle it all back around, talk a little bit about the economy.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: So let's start with the with the regulation.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: And it's been pretty quiet on that front, but there are some things going on.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: So just kind of talk to us a little bit about regulation.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: So uh I think a big one I'd flag for folks out there is the SEC's got a new e-delivery rule that's been proposed that uh would uh allow for uh uh email delivery of uh documents to be the default for folks where you have that email address already there.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: So uh that's a big development.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: That's something that the industry's wanted for quite some time.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: So that that's just a proposed rule at this stage.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, industry has uh has comment submitted comments at this point.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: I think the comment period is now closed on that.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll be eagerly awaiting to see that that final rule come down the pipeline at some point in the next year or so.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: And um will be a welcome development, assuming it's uh similar to the proposal.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: So that's that's really great news.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: And um, I think the other thing I would flag for folks, uh, you know, we're maybe a little quieter on the on the federal front with rulemaking, but uh at the state level, there's still a lot going on.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: Um so one that one item that we're closely tracking is uh uh potential changes to the uh model rule for annuity illustration.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um and uh that that could obviously could have big implications for uh you know how we uh how we show how uh fixed index annuities work.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: So uh we're keeping a really close eye on that and and engaging uh quite a bit with with regulators and uh with our trade associations to hopefully uh you know achieve a good outcome so that uh we're we're making those illustrations as useful as they can be to folks.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think that's one of the things too about the the industry is that oftentimes we look at it at the federal level, but people forget about hey, there's things actually going from a regulatory standpoint on the state level too.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think that makes your job you know fairly challenging because you have not only what's going on in Washington, DC, but hey, what's going on in Iowa or Nebraska or Florida or California or New York and all those other areas too.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: So um, I think that sometimes is often overlooked.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: So regulatory front has been pretty quiet here for and it's and it's it's so strange because for a while there we were talking about the regulatory front.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: It was going hot and heavy, and now it's been pretty quiet the last two years.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, legislative standpoint, pretty uh quiet as well.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're in the the heat of the midterm election season.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: So uh what's going on on the hill?
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Is there any legislation that's potentially coming through here in the next couple of weeks?
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: And then I think the other thing too is what's gonna what's potentially gonna happen in the lame duck session?
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I mean, I think the House is largely in campaign mode already.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: They're there, I don't expect them to be back in DC here until the the midterms.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: But uh the Senate's in this week.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: Uh last night they uh keeps coming back to college sports, everything comes back to college sports.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: But they did pass a bill related to college sports last night.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and uh I do expect that to be eventually taken up by the House, uh, but probably in the lame duck session, you know, because I don't think expect them to come back to DC to work on that.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: But uh so so that's one big priority.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I I think uh, you know, the government's funded through uh December 11th, so they're gonna have have to do something at at some point to continue funding the government, whether it's uh you know an omnibus spending package of some kind, uh in which case maybe you'll see some other items catch a ride on that, or maybe it's another continuing resolution.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: I think that depends on how the midterms go, probably.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um there's a surface transportation reauthorization, there's your annual defense authorization.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of, there's a lengthy to-do list uh once they do get back from the elections.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um and uh, you know, on our front, uh as it relates to financial services and tax, you know, there's always a chance that uh that tax package uh slips into a spending bill, should they do an omnibus.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, we'll be keeping a close eye on that and certainly have some priorities we'll let to see in there.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um and then uh, you know, keeping an eye out as well for uh uh anything that might happen on artificial intelligence.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I think uh, you know, there's uh a growing interest in maybe doing some having some kind of a federal regulatory framework uh established by Congress uh as it relates to this.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: So um I I could see that potentially happening in the lame duck as well.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: That's something else to keep an eye on.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: You know, uh the last couple of uh of tax changes that have occurred have typically happened in December.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I I just I the last couple of times I know that it's kind of gone up into uh close to the holidays, and we've seen some some tax things come through.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: So I think you know the lame duck session would be a time where you could see something like that slip through.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: So you just never know, right?
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you just never know what's gonna happen there.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: I do think it's kind of interesting too, talking about sports, and we're in the hot the heat of the college football season.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: The N AIL NIL deal kind of made its way through the Senate, which had overwhelming bipartisan support, it looked like so.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so that gets us through legislation.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Now let's get to probably what everybody's interested in this time of year.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: Can we're we're filming this, it's the end of September and it's the midterm elections.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: So tell us you know what's what's kind of going on, what are you keeping an eye on?
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: What are your thoughts about the the upcoming election here in a couple of weeks?
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, happy to happy to get into the into the weeds on that.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, so I I when when we've talked in the past, Tyler, kind of previewing the midterms, we've talked about how you know Republicans are going to face natural headwinds just by the virtue of the fact that the president is a Republican.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: And 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the president's party has lost seats in the House of Representatives.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, the average loss is 29 house seats, just in general.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of your baseline.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: Your baseline is you got some headwinds.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but gas prices right now uh for regular unleaded, 448 a gallon, nationwide average, 645 a gallon for diesel.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's a record high for diesel, or right under a record high for diesel.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: And you're not that far away from a record even for regular unleaded, too.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: That was set back in uh 2022.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: So but for context, on election day 2024, when Republicans were elected with a mandate to get prices under control, you had gas at 307 for regular and 354 for diesel.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's an enormous increase, obviously.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and that is top of mind for voters right now.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: But it's not just gas.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh, if you look at overall CPI data data, I mean, uh, overall prices are up six percent since the election, right?
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, Republicans were elected with a pretty clear mandate that the number one item on voters' mind in 2024 was to get prices under control.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: And um, you know, I think uh some of those numbers would suggest that uh maybe that hasn't been accomplished, right?
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: So I I think that uh there there's gonna be some additional headwinds that come from that.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're starting to see that in some of the polling too.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, if you look at uh competitive Senate seats right now, I mean, there's probably 11 that I'd consider competitive, but right now Democrats are leading in 10 of them, uh, which is pretty remarkable.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, in the past on the show, we've talked about how, you know, the Senate's probably pretty safe for Republicans.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I uh don't think so for at all, honestly.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think Well, the map's the map's expanded.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: It has expanded.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, South Carolina's within the margin of error and pulling up.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I mean it's uh yeah, there right now the prediction markets have a 62% chance the Democrats take the Senate, which would have been unthinkable even a few months ago.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: So um I think on our last podcast we talked about, I think it was like 57 or 58 percent Republicans hold the Senate, and now that's moved significantly in favor of the Democrats.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: Totally flipped, yep.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: So um, you know, I mean, most of those I mentioned, you know, 10 of 11 uh polls uh or 10 of 11 states, uh Democrats ahead.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: That's all most of them are within the margin of error, right?
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that's an important disclaimer.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, a lot could change.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it doesn't mean that you know you're gonna have necessarily some wipeout where it's you know 54 Democrat seats in the Senate, uh, but that is within the realm of possibility, which is which is you know pretty remarkable considering where we were a few months ago.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: So um I think uh the House is all but a certainty at this point uh that uh you're probably gonna see it flip.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: Um there's prediction markets have I think a 93% chance that the the Democrats take the House.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um you might see uh it be narrower than you might think just because there aren't as many competitive seats as there once were.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um but um I I mean you feel pretty good right now if you're if you're the Democrats, you feel pretty spooked right now, I'd say, if you're Republicans.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but a lot, but still a lot could change in the next month or so.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: So we got a ways to go yet.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but um that's where we're at right now.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: It's uh I think very strongly favors Democrats.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I you know, there's some of the things that I've read and some of the things I've looked at, especially with the polling, is you know, Republicans, from what I understand, have have started to stop their senatorial spending in Georgia and North Carolina, which uh, you know, ventures to say that they're they're trying to they're trying to save some of the seats like uh Iowa and Alaska looks like that.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's also Texas, obviously, is a big one in the so you know obviously natural historical headwinds that they're facing.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: And now you have um an expanded Senate uh map for the Republicans having to defend.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: And that usually historically has not been a good recipe for the party that is trying to defend more seats than they thought they were going to go into the election season.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: So that would assume, let's just let's okay, let's just assume this.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're we're kind of going down the down this this path a little bit, is that the Democrats will take at least one house, uh whether that's the House or or the Senate.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: Let's just say they take the House and you're looking at divided government.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: So what do you see maybe potentially happening in 2027 or 2028 with a divided government, with a Republican president, Democratic um controlled either House, maybe House and the Senate.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: What does that look like?
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, I mean, in order to get anything through, uh, from a legislative standpoint, you're gonna have to have some compromise, uh, right.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: Which uh uh, you know, I I think you know there are certainly issues out there where, you know, uh the Trump administration the first time around was able to find some agreement and divide a government with Democrats and reach some compromises.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: It's possible you see some of that again this time around.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but you know, you're you're not gonna see any sweeping changes come through Congress, right, in all likelihood.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um then I think the other piece is uh you'll see some additional scrutiny, certainly, in the executive branch.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you'll probably see uh the Trump administration attempt at least to act unilaterally whenever it possibly can.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um and uh, you know, you might not see as much action just in general from DC for the next couple of years in terms of, you know, new laws and new developments.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: So um what I'm really interested in though is these Senate races, um, you know, if Democrats do see that massive wave where they somehow get 54 seats in the Senate, that has huge implications for 2028 and beyond, too.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, as we think, as we look ahead to uh you know, the next presidential election.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: If should there be a Democrat elected president in 2028, um and they hit they hang on to both chambers, um, they they're starting from such a strong position then in the Senate already in 2028 at that point.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um, they could have a very significant majority and be able to do things like maybe they consider getting rid of the fill buster.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, that's something they toyed with last time they had the Senate controlled the Senate, but weren't able to get it done due to a couple of different objections from their members.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I expect there's probably still a couple of different Democrats in the Senate who don't want to see that happen.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, you know, maybe they have the votes this time to to do that, right?
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: So I I think that's something to watch.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, and it sets some, it could set them up quite well to um to make some major changes from a fiscal policy standpoint too.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um looking at things like taxes and spending.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: So um yeah.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and then you have then you have the map in 28, right?
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: So the map uh you have the Senate map, the seats that are up for for election in 28 and then in 2030.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: And so if you're able to to get that higher benchmark, um, you know, you got six years to play with some of these seats that have traditionally been on the Republican side that would have been flipped.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: So whether or not the Republicans can take a couple of those or not, and I mean that that's yet to be seen.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: But like I think you're right, that puts them at a higher benchmark there.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: I think the other thing you talked about too is that divided government, um, there's gonna have to be some compromise.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: So you're probably looking at uh uh a Trump administration and a Democratic controlled house or Senate, really just trying to figure out how do we how do we pass a budget.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um so but you know, then there's also gonna be other things too.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: I I think a lot of times people forget this NIL deal is a perfect example of bipartisan support.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the Social Security Fairness Act uh was a bipartisan support with the Biden administration and uh Republican controlled house.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, there there's some things like that that do get through.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: There certainly are.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I mean, if you look at retirement policy too, right?
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: You look at the Secure Act one and Secure Act Two.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, those are things that were pretty broadly supported across both parties.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, it's not that they're you're not gonna see any legislating.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you you still will.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: It's just some of the maybe more higher um uh, you know, more polarizing issues aren't gonna see much legislation, right?
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I and I one of the things I wanted to talk about too is that, you know, what does the market do?
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's one of the things that people think about.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, what happens when the divided government happens?
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: What what happens the year after uh a midterm election year?
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: And so I pulled some data up.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: You know, this this is coming from the capital group and uh from uh S P 500.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, the one of the things that that in I would say modern times, so I'm going all the way back to you know 1928, is that after a midterm election on the third year of a presidential cycle is actually the market's historically the best year that they they usually have.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's only if you take a look at just the price aspect, there's only three years where it's been flat or negative.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Uh 1931 being one of them, 1939 being another, uh 2015 being one of them.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: So the average, you know, mid mid after midterm election year return has been about 18%.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, you take you just take a look at that from a historical context, and that doesn't necessarily mean that that's gonna happen because you know, in a midterm election year, typically the markets are flat and the equity markets are up this year.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um, bond markets are down, but equity markets are up.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: So those are some things I think to think about as you know, we we kind of get lost in all the the election and all the news media, and then it's like, okay, well, what are the trends that are happening?
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: So from uh from an economic standpoint or from a market standpoint, those are some things that I thought I would share with the audience here today that you know sometimes uh you know you look at those after midterm election years.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: And then I also wanted to pull up, well, you know, what's the markets do when you have uh divided government?
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, average uh when you have uh the opposing party controls Congress, the the average return has been around 11%.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh again, that comes from you know, capital group that comes from the SP 500.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_00: So uh just because you have divided government doesn't necessarily mean that that's going to affect how how the overall economy or the markets, and now economy and markets are different things, but doesn't necessarily mean that that's gonna be a negative either.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: And then the the other thing that I wanted to pull up that um I thought was interesting because you mentioned gas prices and you know, increase in gas prices, increase in inflation.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: And when I think about that, I think about the 1970s.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, again, kind of the same thing.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: We were having uh political, geopolitical issues with uh with Iran.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so uh a lot of uh similarities to that decade and what's going on.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: And so I kind of wanted just to see, you know, what was the average return of of the market historically uh during that decade.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_00: And you looked at an average market return of a little shy of six percent, and that came from uh the New York uh New York University Stern's uh school of business.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: So uh you're looking at a little less than six percent.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so you know uh those are I think that gives people some context about you know what's going on, and and we we've kind of done similar trends like this before.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: Not that that's gonna be what's gonna happen in the future, but you know, it it does give us a little bit of an idea of of maybe you know what's happened in the past.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, the other thing too that that you know, you think about the Fed is uh, you know, again, Kevin Walsh not not really put in the best position uh as as his first year of the Fed chair.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so raised interest rates uh could potentially see another interest rate increase here at the end of the year as well.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_00: But uh gosh, you know, the the the interest rate policy is so so unpredictable.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: You just never know what what's gonna happen.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, inflation starts to come down, or maybe uh you you start seeing unemployment go down, but unemployment is softened, but it hasn't, you know, we're still at 4%, which is historically a pretty, pretty good number.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: So um, you know, that that kind of gives us some context of what's going on from a market standpoint, an economic standpoint.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, Tyler, um, any final thoughts on uh the upcoming election, the potential lame duck session, anything else you'd like to share with the audience here today?
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: No, I mean I think I think we covered it, Tyler.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: I I think it uh it's gonna be really interesting to watch this November.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then it'll be interesting to see how you know how how folks react on the Hill uh after that and whether it's uh you know busy lame duck session or not.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: But uh um there will not be a dull moment in the next couple months.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh nor will there be uh you know many many seconds watching TV without an attack ad.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you that much.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: Or on your YouTube short, seeing something come through on that too.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: They're on my podcasts.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you it's inescapable.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah, that's that's election season.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that's election season.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: So, well, Tyler, it's always a pleasure to have you here.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: And uh for the audience, you know, if if if this information is is great uh for you, please feel free to share it.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: Like our like our um our subscription on uh Apple Podcasts or Spotify, and you know, take a look at our other podcasts when planning becomes personal, a lot of great information there.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: And and and this is this is designed to help help you and your clients and anybody that is interested in these types of topics.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: So please feel free to share this information as as you see fit.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: So for uh for the Tyler show coming to you from uh the Salmons Financial Group uh studio in West Des Moines, Iowa, I'm Tyler Dahan.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: Until next time.