Latest / The Fourcast / Will the UK-France migration deal work - explained

Transcript

Will the UK-France migration deal work - explained · The Fourcast

0:00
The bottom line to this idea is that governments shouldn't be
0:03
trading humans. Why are we having that
0:05
discussion? What are the answers here,
0:08
people? And you know, let's face it,
0:09
predominantly young men will still take whatever risk if they
0:13
think it's worth taking. Well, as Keir Starmer said,
0:15
there is no silver bullet and and actually the smash the gangs
0:19
approach does encounter a number of quite substantial operational
0:23
challenges. Last week, of course, we saw the
0:26
video that perhaps the far right wanted to see, which was police
0:29
going into the water and slashing a boat.
0:32
We heard the child screaming. We heard heard everyone on their
0:36
distraught. And maybe that's what they want.
0:43
Hello and welcome to the Forecast.
0:45
I'm Paul McNamara. The UK and France have just
0:47
signed a deal that they hope will cut down on the number of
0:50
migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.
0:53
The deterrent? Come to the UK illegally and you
0:55
can be shipped straight back or as quick as the courts will
0:58
allow. France will accept these
1:00
returnees in exchange for Britain taking in refugees with
1:03
family connections or legitimate claims.
1:06
But will this one in one out scheme really put off desperate
1:10
people fleeing war or famine? Small boat crossings are up
1:14
almost 56% this year, with more than 21,000 people making the
1:20
journey so far. Will those numbers come down and
1:23
fast enough to ease the political pressure from illegal
1:27
migration? To discuss this, I'm joined by
1:29
Doctor Peter Walsh from Oxford University's Migration
1:32
Observatory and from the refugee charity Care for Kelly Charlotte
1:36
Kahn. The numbers that we're talking
1:38
about here are, we understand, about 50 returned per week.
1:44
Well, at the moment, since Labour first came into power,
1:48
about 850 people have been coming to the UK every single
1:52
week. So will this be enough to deter
1:55
those people crossing the Channel in small boats, Peter?
2:00
It's unlikely to have much of an impact.
2:03
The working assumption has always been that the size of the
2:06
deterrent effect of any returns deal like this will depend on a
2:11
substantial share of people who reach the UK by small boat being
2:16
returned to France. After all, these are individuals
2:18
who have travelled thousands of miles to get to Calais.
2:22
They've spent thousands of EUR. They're willing to risk their
2:25
lives by getting in a small boat to reach the UK.
2:29
If there's not a substantial probability of being returned
2:31
swiftly to France, then there's a likelihood that they'll just
2:34
view this as one additional risk that they're willing to take.
2:37
Charlotte is that what you're hearing from people actually in
2:40
France? I think the bottom line to this
2:42
idea is that governments shouldn't be trading humans.
2:46
It's quite obvious that that shouldn't be happening, and I'm
2:49
a little confused to be honest. I mean, family reunification
2:52
should already exist. So with this new plan, what
2:56
exactly is the government suggesting that so far they've
2:59
been denying people this right? Or are they saying that they
3:03
will in the future deny family reunification unless some poor
3:07
person who's come across on on a small boat is forcibly removed
3:12
from the from the nation? I mean, this is, this is crazy
3:15
and it works on a horrible assumption that the people who
3:18
are coming over on small boats have no connection to the UK,
3:21
which many do. And an even worse assumption
3:25
that people on small boats don't have the right to claim asylum
3:28
in the UK, which they all do. So it's a nonsense and it it
3:33
won't work because it's a deterrent based policy.
3:36
And we know from years and years of working in this sector now
3:39
deterrent based policies do not stop people crossing the
3:42
Channel. But Charlotte, if they know that
3:44
there is a legal route and if they apply by the rules that
3:47
Keir Starmer has just laid out, they would have a way of coming
3:50
to the UK legally and have some sort of future here.
3:53
Would that not be an attractive prospect?
3:56
Am I in favour of safe routes? Absolutely 100%.
3:59
I think safe routes is the only answer.
4:01
It's the serious solution to this.
4:04
I I think all this pomp and ceremony and political circus is
4:08
it would be laughable if it wasn't costing lives.
4:11
Safe routes is the answer. Things will only work if they
4:15
affect the majority of people who at the moment are coming
4:19
onto small boats. So there would need to be a real
4:21
political will behind safe routes for it to work and it
4:25
would need to affect a lot more people.
4:28
And we saw this success of a political will being in place
4:31
with the Ukrainian scheme. And then that is the same sort
4:34
of thing that we would need to see for a wider safe route
4:37
across the Channel so people can just join our asylum system like
4:40
they do elsewhere. OK, before we start picking
4:43
apart this policy even more, let's just do a bit of new
4:46
reader starts here. So why are people willing to
4:50
risk death in the Channel, get in these small boats and come to
4:54
the UK when they could stay in France?
4:56
Peter. Several reasons.
4:58
I mean, chief among them would actually speak with the
5:00
individuals. They'll speak of the presence of
5:02
family members in the UK, existing family connections or
5:06
friends, members of the community.
5:08
That's a strong jaw. A second is the English
5:10
language, that these are individuals who already have
5:12
some facility with English. They prefer to develop their
5:15
English language skills rather than learn French, Spanish or
5:19
German. And 3rd, there is now emerging
5:22
evidence of a Brexit effect, which is that when we were a
5:26
part of the EU, we had access to the EU's asylum seeker
5:30
fingerprint database. We had access to the Dublin
5:33
system under which asylum seekers who had claimed in the
5:36
EU could be returned to the block.
5:38
We no longer have access to those as a result of Brexit and
5:41
people understand that if they've claimed in the EU and
5:44
been refused, they can have another bite of the cherry by
5:47
coming to the UK because we wouldn't know about that.
5:50
Look Charlotte, a lot of people watching this are going to turn
5:53
around and say what is wrong with claiming asylum in France?
5:58
So this is a big misconception. I think people who speak like
6:03
that think that every refugee wants to come to the UK.
6:06
This simply isn't the truth and we and we have all the
6:08
statistics to back it up. Most people seeking safety will
6:12
do so in a country neighboring their own.
6:16
The most the majority of people coming to Europe don't want to
6:19
come to the UK. So this is, this is a nonsense.
6:21
The people who are wanting to come to the UK do so for really
6:25
strong reasons and that is to be with their family or that is
6:28
language. It is to have a chance to
6:31
rebuild their life in safety. And they haven't found this
6:34
elsewhere. You know, we hear really
6:37
distressing stories and accounts from people that have worked
6:39
their way through Europe. Yes, they have been to
6:42
countries, but they certainly haven't found their safe place.
6:45
They have been met with state violence and to such an extent
6:49
that they have to move on. But there are some individuals
6:51
who, yes, they, they are trying to get to family here, which I
6:55
would do, I think most of us would do.
6:57
If I had an uncle in a country, I'd be heading to him.
7:00
What's the appeal of this deal, what we've had announced, What's
7:04
the appeal here for France, Peter?
7:07
It's a good question. I think a part of it is that
7:10
France wishes to show the willingness to cooperate on
7:14
really what is a shared issue. France already has quite a lot
7:20
of cooperation on this issue with the UK.
7:22
We have patrols over there. We share intelligence and by the
7:26
end of financial year 27 will have sent about a billion euros
7:30
in the 10 years prior to that. But I think it really is this
7:33
appreciation that this is an international issue.
7:37
France is not satisfied with the formation of informal migrant
7:44
settlements in and around Calais and really it's a recognition of
7:47
that fundamentally. So you spend quite a lot of time
7:50
in Calais, lots of pictures that have been raised.
7:53
Voters over the last couple of years have been no sights of
7:57
French policemen standing around, not doing very much.
8:00
When people hop into boats and then launch into the Channel,
8:04
why aren't the French intervening more?
8:07
Is it simply because they're more than happy for people to
8:10
leave the country? Come over here, let the UK deal
8:12
with it. Well, if people are wanting the
8:13
French police to make refugees lives a misery in Calais, they
8:17
can rest assured that that's definitely happening.
8:19
For years now we've seen an escalation in police violence
8:23
paid for by us, by the UK government.
8:25
Of course, on the sites in Calais, we've seen tear gas,
8:31
we've seen pepper spray, you know, the very few belongings
8:35
that people have in the world being destroyed in front of
8:38
them, violence against people. I mean, I did think I had seen
8:42
it all. But then last week, of course,
8:43
we saw the video that perhaps the far right wanted to see,
8:47
which was police going into the water and slashing a boat when
8:51
people were still on board. We heard the child screaming.
8:55
We heard everyone on their distraught and maybe that's what
8:58
they want and I think this is this is what the governments are
9:01
working towards. They are pandering towards the
9:03
FAR. Charlotte isn't there?
9:04
Isn't there an argument here that actually, yeah, they're
9:08
distressing images, but actually it's a kind of thing to make
9:13
sure that they're not further out and to see they're not
9:15
getting into more danger. You're stopping people before
9:17
you, before they take that really, really dangerous journey
9:19
the full way across the channel. Oh my God, yeah.
9:21
I wish that people wouldn't take that risk.
9:23
I, I wish that they didn't have to, of course, 100%, but we are
9:27
talking nonsense if we think that that one event is going to
9:31
stop people trying again. There was nothing to suggest
9:33
that they won't stop trying. We speak to people all the time.
9:36
We, we spoke to people specifically when the Rwanda
9:39
plan was there. It was meant to be the biggest
9:41
deterrent ever. Look, the biggest deterrent ever
9:43
is that you might lose your life in this journey and people are
9:47
still willing to do it. Peter is that is that the the
9:50
mood music that you hear that it doesn't really matter what
9:53
deterrents are put in place people and you know, let's face
9:56
it, predominantly young men will still take whatever risk if they
10:00
think it's worth taking. They are desperate to reach the
10:03
UK. And when you look at the
10:05
countries that they've come from, in some sense it's no
10:07
great surprise why they tend to come from some of the most
10:11
chaotic parts of the world, countries that suffer political
10:15
persecution, environmental catastrophe, war, civil or
10:21
ethnic conflict of various kinds.
10:24
And that's why it's no surprise, of course, that large majorities
10:27
claim asylum. And at the moment, of those that
10:29
have received a decision on their asylum claim, a pretty
10:31
large majority, 2/3, have been successful.
10:35
Charlotte, I get the impression from the from the top there that
10:38
you're not overly pleased with the announcement that's just
10:41
been made by Sir Keir Starmer. Is there any form of returns
10:45
agreement that you would have looked at and gone?
10:47
Yeah, OK, I can get behind that. I, I, my, my purpose isn't here
10:51
to talk about returns agreement. I, I'm, I'm really disturbed by
10:56
that idea that we have to trade humans in any way.
10:59
Why are we doing that? Why are we having that
11:01
discussion? Why aren't we talking about our
11:04
obligations as a country to, you know, help people who have come
11:08
to us asking for help? Why are we trying to shirk our
11:12
responsibility just because of this fluke of geography that we
11:15
have this deadly channel in between us?
11:18
Why are we doing that? My mind boggles.
11:20
I don't understand why we're not just talking about a safe route
11:24
and why we're talking about returns in this way.
11:27
There are returns policies in place, but can I go back to
11:30
something you mentioned about them, mostly young men.
11:33
And this is something that the that the far right really like
11:35
to, you know, get stuck in in on.
11:38
You know, when we look at the nations that the people are are
11:41
fleeing from the very targets of those governments that they are
11:45
fleeing and the persecution they flee, the very targets are young
11:48
men forced conscription into what is basically, you know,
11:51
death gangs. So they are the targets.
11:54
Why we would stop those young men seeking asylum in our nation
11:58
is disgraceful. I really do.
12:00
I really dislike this sort of gender based discussion that
12:03
happens on this topic. And maybe it's because I'm a mum
12:06
of two strapping teenage boys and God forbid that my very
12:11
tall, you know, 13 and 15 year old sons ever had to flee their
12:14
home like my friends, mothers have had to tell them, you know,
12:17
run. God forbid that they were met
12:19
with this, that people were wishing them to die on their way
12:23
to meeting a relative in a safe country.
12:26
Peter, can you talk us through the scale of the problem across
12:30
the whole of Europe? Because a lot of people watching
12:33
the news, watching the UK news will only see the people that
12:36
are crossing the Channel to get here.
12:37
But looking across Europe, how? What's the scale of the problem
12:41
in every other European nation? Yes, it's very much a European
12:45
challenge and the UK is most certainly not alone here.
12:49
If we talk about unauthorised maritime arrivals, Italy has
12:53
frequently 2 to three times, Greece often has more, Spain as
12:57
well. So there are many countries that
12:59
experience this. And certainly the extent to
13:02
which the UK experiences unauthorised maritime migration
13:07
is considerably of less magnitude than the numbers that
13:11
are reaching Italy, for example. So this is a pan European
13:14
problem, but what we've got now is an agreement between the UK
13:18
and France. Is there a risk that the
13:21
Europeans can step in here and say we're blocking this?
13:24
We've already seen some opposition from a number of
13:27
frontline states, Italy, Cyprus, Malta, Spain and Greece.
13:32
Their concern is that individuals that are returned to
13:35
France may end up back in those countries which already view
13:39
themselves as as overburdened and taking responsibility for
13:43
large numbers of individuals. But of course, at the same time,
13:46
an individual that could be returned to those countries is
13:49
also coming to the Uki think one of the big questions about this
13:53
fairly limited deal for the time being is whether it might be a
13:57
stepping stone to a broader agreement between the UK and the
14:01
EU as a whole. And the big win, I think for UK
14:05
policy makers would be regaining access to the E US fingerprint
14:09
asylum seeker database. Charlotte, immigration is a huge
14:15
issue in British politics. Labour feel that they've got to
14:19
get on top of this. Just talking to Labour MPs
14:23
before we started this podcast, one, one of them was saying to
14:27
me, look, this is a good start but we're going to have to go
14:29
further because we are facing real problems here from Reform
14:32
who are looking at taking a far harder line stance.
14:36
Are you concerned that if Labour don't tackle this problem now,
14:41
it's not going to be whatever Keir Starmer comes up with, but
14:43
it might be what Nigel Farage comes up with which you would
14:46
find far less palatable? So I, I do think it's
14:49
extraordinary that a Labour government is in place and we're
14:52
having these discussions. I've worked in this sector for
14:55
years now and even in our, in our darkest day under the Tory
14:58
government, you, you at least have that hope that, you know,
15:02
one day they're going to get voted out and this change is
15:04
coming. But here we are with the Labour
15:05
government having the same discussions.
15:07
I think it's extraordinary that Labour are choosing this
15:10
strategy of trying to out reform, reform.
15:13
I mean, that's not a a vote winner.
15:14
Who's going to do that? If you if you want to vote for
15:16
the for the very worst, in my opinion, you know policies, then
15:21
you just the. Polls show that it that it is a
15:23
vote winner Charlotte. Well, I mean, I, I really do
15:27
think that the majority of Labour, traditional Labour
15:30
voters don't want what the Labour government are bringing
15:34
in place. They honestly don't.
15:35
And it's certainly not our experience as a charity who are,
15:38
you know, out in the UK, across the UK all the time, we have
15:42
thousands of volunteers. We come across loads of
15:45
different communities who are not interested in what reforms
15:49
are selling now. Do we all share the same sort of
15:53
frustrations that perhaps reform voters have?
15:57
Yes, I think we do. I think that's a wider political
16:00
discussion. Peter, this isn't just a
16:02
European problem, it's not just Auk problem.
16:04
This is migration. Global migration is a problem
16:07
across the world. I've just come back from the
16:09
Mexico, Arizona border. Donald Trump by taking a really
16:13
hard line approach, has pretty much shut down that border.
16:16
The border crossings are down by huge numbers.
16:19
He's only with aggressive tactics of forced immigration,
16:23
immigration now we've got people who are volunteering to return
16:27
to their home nations because it's such a toxic environment.
16:32
Could a similar system work over here if the government went
16:35
really, really hard line, really appeal to those voters who might
16:38
be flirting with reform? Law enforcement has its
16:41
limitations. That the case of the US is
16:43
actually quite instructive in that it showed that a
16:47
combination of enforcement, sometimes harsh and rigorously
16:51
applied, along with the safe and legal routes, proved to be the
16:57
most effective kind of solution. The big question, of course, is
17:01
whether the Labour government would find that politically
17:05
palatable. But that has been one of the big
17:07
lessons coming out of the UK case study, the US case study
17:11
Look. Long term, what are the answers
17:16
here? How can so, how can the
17:18
government stop these small boats crossing?
17:20
You know, we've heard so much about smash the gangs.
17:23
Well, how many gangs have actually been smashed so far?
17:25
How are we going to get these crossings down, Peter?
17:28
Well, as Keir Starmer said, there is no silver bullet and
17:30
actually the smash the gangs approach does encounter a number
17:34
of quite substantial operational challenges.
17:37
The smuggling networks are increasingly professionalised,
17:40
well resourced. They've always been adaptable.
17:43
It takes a lot of resource to hand smugglers.
17:45
They can be quickly replaced and senior figures operate in
17:48
countries not just beyond the UK's jurisdiction but beyond
17:51
that of the EU, and often in countries with which the UK has
17:55
very little to no law enforcement cooperation.
17:58
So the magnitude of the challenge very substantial
18:01
indeed. Charlotte, what about you?
18:03
Is there any solution you can see?
18:06
Yes, well, I mean, he says there's no silver bullet.
18:09
You know, we heard there was no magic money tree either and all
18:11
of that. We've we've heard phrases like
18:13
this before. There is it's safe routes.
18:15
It's a safe route to cross the channel.
18:17
That is what will destroy the smugglers business model
18:21
overnight. I I'm incredibly frustrated that
18:24
the government refused to even research or look into a safe
18:28
route in order for people to cross the channel.
18:31
We've produced policies with with PCs union who represent
18:36
Border Force, who represent people who work in the Home
18:38
Office. We're not some sort of lefty
18:41
crazy utopian thinking agency here.
18:44
We have put forward a serious solution here which they are
18:47
refusing to consider. Is that essentially an open door
18:50
though, Charlotte? No, no, it's not.
18:53
I mean. So would you put numbers on?
18:54
Would you put? Would you put limits on?
18:57
Please, let's start that conversation.
18:58
You know, I, I'm not here to go into the minutiae of exactly
19:01
what the Home Office would do, but let's have a look at that.
19:04
You know, we have a blueprint. It's not just talk.
19:07
We have a blueprint based quite heavily on the Ukrainian scheme
19:11
where people would be able to access the right to cross the
19:14
Channel to enter our asylum process.
19:16
So our asylum process, we are told by Labour is robust.
19:20
Therefore let people enter it without having to risk their
19:23
lives because that is what the crisis is.
19:26
The crisis is people are dying in the Channel.
19:28
It's not that people are seeking asylum in the UK, surely.
19:32
Peter, if you're a betting man, how much money would you put on
19:35
what's been announced today having any real impact on
19:38
getting the numbers down? I can see Charlotte shaking her
19:40
head already, by the way. The numbers would have to be
19:44
substantial such that there would be a large chance of being
19:48
returned to France under this initial pilot stage.
19:51
Those numbers are not particularly up large.
19:53
That's really the the low number scenario where it's difficult to
19:57
imagine much material the Tarrant effect.
20:00
And if it doesn't have an effect, what's the
20:03
ramifications? Very difficult to predict.
20:06
The UK may very well seek a broader deal with the EU, but
20:09
the big question is there, well, will the EU be keen to do that?
20:13
It certainly prefers deals with the block as a whole rather than
20:16
these kinds of bilateral agreements.
20:18
But the question for the EU will be, well, why would we give the
20:22
UK these additional powers that have been typically reserved for
20:25
member states? And Charlotte, do you think this
20:27
is ultimately going to have any impact on the people that you
20:30
deal with in Calais? I don't think it's going to stop
20:33
people crossing the channel, no, I think it's going to risk
20:36
people's lives. That's that's the truth of it is
20:39
that people will die. Last year at least 78 people
20:43
died in our channel. This is just this just can't
20:46
continue. So the result will be this is
20:48
yet another cruel deterrent based policy, which won't work.
20:52
It won't stop people and people will just continue to die.
20:56
What will will what happen is that the far right will continue
20:59
to use it in the way that they do to stir up hatred.
21:02
We'll, we'll be distracted from the issues that are really
21:05
important to people who live here.
21:07
And rather than looking elsewhere, we will be, we will
21:11
be guided towards people who are running from war and
21:15
persecution, who have nothing and are just asking for safety.
21:19
That's who we are supposed to blame.
21:21
And that will continue. And that's the rhetoric that
21:23
will continue and nothing will change.
21:25
I don't think that's the write up Keir Starmer was hoping for
21:28
straight after his press conference.
21:29
Sure it's not. Yeah, I'm sure it's not, but
21:32
there we go. Sometimes we have to speak truth
21:34
to power, don't we? But play Doctor Peter Walsh from
21:38
the Oxford University's migration to Observatory.
21:40
Charlotte Kahn from Care for K Thank you very much for joining
21:43
us. Thank you.
21:45
Thank you. That's it for this episode of
21:47
The Forecast. Until next time, goodbye.