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Week 10 2026 College Football Picks for 15 More Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's week 10. We're picking 15 more games against the spread.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Welcome in. This is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: all the different socials. Most active on X, of course.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: And today, as every week, I'm using my models, my analytics,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: and my handicapping experience to preview and predict the outcome
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: of games that you see on your screen right here.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I think I got it on the right side. Yeah.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: All right. Let's not waste a bunch of time. Let's
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: get to the games. Virginia Tech at SMU Friday, 6 p.m.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN. SMU minus 5.5 favorites. That's down
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: a point from 6.5. Total is 55.5 here. It's James
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Franklin's first Tech team. They are 6-2 straight up. Right
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: now they are 5-3 against the spread, 46th in my
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: power ratings. SMU 6-2 straight up. But they are right
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: now 4-4 against the spread, 34th in my power ratings.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Tech beat Clemson a couple weeks ago 20-16. They had
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: a bye last week, so 13 days of rest against
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: SMU is only six days after they went up to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Syracuse and lost last week 30-27. My projected score per
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: my stats model right now, 31.1 and Virginia Tech 23.3.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: We'll start with Virginia Tech on offense here. Tech's quarterback,
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Ethan Grunkemeyer. 17 touchdowns, 2 interceptions on the year. Tech
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: ranks 19th in passing success. The run game is a problem.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: And not in a good way. As in, it is
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: an actual problem for them. 115th at 3.67 yards per carry.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Four offensive linemen are out or questionable or whatever you
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: want to call it. They got some guys dinged up
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: on the line. SMU's defense ranks 18th in passing explosiveness allowed.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: They are 4th on 3rd down. But both starting safeties,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Moses and Poley Jr., They are out, or Pauly Jr.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Y'all correct me in the comments. Tell me. As far
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: as SMU being on offense, SMU is second in the
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: country in passing PPA. Kevin Jennings completes 74% of his passes,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: second in FBS. Tech's defense is 83rd in PPA per pass.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: They are missing their top corner, Thomas Williams. Where Tech
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: wins is up front. They are first in the country
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in line yards. They are first in the country in
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: stuff rate. SMU kicker Nick Reed... Top-rated player, as far
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: as my sheet is concerned. It's a game-time call for him,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: so kind of a big deal. Let's see. Hidden yards.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: There we go. Tech's defensive numbers. Came against the weakest
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: offenses in the FBS, so I'm kind of discounting those.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Tech has the special teams edge here. 81st against 114th.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're not talking much to brag about here.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Franklin off of a win. Has covered 54 out of
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: 87 games since 2016. SMU is a favorite off of
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: a loss. Only 6-13 against the number. SMU at home, though,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: 33-21-1 since 2016. My ratings radar was a lean at
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: minus 6.5. The move to minus 5.5 adds a full
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: point to it. My WCE 8 factors rating has SMU
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: minus 9.3. The stats has it minus 7.8. Power ratings,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: minus 7.3. All six models now clear the number. I
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: understand SMU got beat last week. I understand their own
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: short rest. I get it. I think they are going
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: to come home and be significantly better. I don't trust
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Franklin's team going on the road here. Give me SMU
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: minus 5.5. I think it's going to be somewhere around 31-23.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I think that's what my number had. Yeah, I'll stick
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: with that. 31-23 here. Nebraska at Illinois. Friday night, 7 p.m.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Central Time on Fox. Nebraska, a 4.5 point favorite. Total
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: is up. from 48.5 to 49.5. Some books open Nebraska
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: minus 6. The move is going towards Illinois. Nebraska started 5-0.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: They've now lost 3 straight. Most recently, 17-10 against Washington
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: at home last week as a 7.5 point favorite. Illinois
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: has won 3 straight. That includes a 20-17 win over Maryland.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: They outgained Maryland by like 200 yards in that game.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Caden Houser is back at quarterback. We'll talk about that
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: more in a minute. Nebraska 6-2 against the spread, 5-3
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  Speaker 1: straight up, 29th in my power ratings. Illinois 5-3, they
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: are 4-4 against the spread, 47th in my power ratings.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So pretty sizable difference here. Projected score per my stats model,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: it's got Nebraska 29.5 to Illinois 23.1. Let's start with
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Nebraska on offense. It's a mismatch through the air. Nebraska's
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: 12th in passing success, Illinois' defense is 130th. Anthony Calandria,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers this far in the year. 15 touchdowns,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: 7 interceptions. Illinois is 115th in PPA allowed per pass.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Nebraska scores touchdowns on 81% of their red zone trips.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Illinois allows scores on 100% of their red zone trips.
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  Speaker 1: They are dead last there. Now, when Illinois is on offense,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: like I said, Caden Houser is back. Top rated player
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: in this game. It's a game time call with a
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: hand injury, but he played last week. I think he's
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: going to be fine here. Nebraska's defense is First in
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  Speaker 1: the country on third down at 19.3%. They are third
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed. Boy, they couldn't stop anything when
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: it came time for nut cutting time, right? Illinois wants
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: to run. They're averaging 5.18 yards per carry. That's 27th.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Nebraska's defense, pretty good there. 22nd in that category. As
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: far as hitting yardage, Nebraska hadn't lost a fumble all year.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: That's the fewest in FBS. Illinois has won four of
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: the last five in this series. That includes 31-24 in
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: overtime in 2024. That was in Lincoln. Illinois off of
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: a win. They have covered 15 of 21 games since 2024.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Bielema as a conference dog, 19-10. Nebraska as a conference favorite,
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  Speaker 1: 15-26-2 against the spread since 2016. The counter here, there's
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: some trends that go opposite directions. After and under, Nebraska
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: is 21-11-1 against the spread. My ratings rate are Bit
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: of a split here. 3 out of 6 with a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: median edge of negative 0.3. My WCE8 has Nebraska minus 11.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: The situation and power ratings are at 3.6 and 3.8.
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  Speaker 1: So the trends, that's what I'm going to use to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: decide it here. Bielema, when he can sense a wounded
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: dog coming in, he'll be ready for this one. Give
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: me Illinois plus 4.5. I think Nebraska can win it.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: If they do, it's probably going to be like 24, 21, whatever.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: And if it's a tight game at the end, it
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: would not shock me at all to see Illinois end
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  Speaker 1: up winning this ballgame. So Illinois plus four and a half.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Quick pause. If you're getting value out of this, hit
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: that like button, subscribe to the channel, and of course,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: drop a comment with the game you like most on
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the card. I read all of them. I'm not going
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: to pay attention if you start barking at me on
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Sunday and you didn't put something in here. So, toss
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: in your picks. Now, back to the board. UCLA at Minnesota.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: This one's Saturday at 11 a.m. Central Time on Fox.
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  Speaker 1: That's a 9 a.m. body clock game for UCLA. UCLA
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: minus 5.5. That's down from 6.5. The total is 39.5.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Not a lot of points expected here. Number 7, UCLA,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: they are 8-0 straight up, 8-0 against the spread in
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Bob Chesney's first year. That includes a 17-15 win at Oregon.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: And UCLA right now, number 16 in my power ratings. Minnesota, 5-3.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: They are, let's see, 6-2 against the spread here. 45th
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: in my power ratings. They lost a quarterback, but they
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: still got Drake Lindsey doing his thing. UCLA plays Illinois
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: on a short week next, so maybe a small look ahead?
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I doubt it. I doubt it. This is a pretty
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: big game for UCLA. My projected score here, UCLA 29.6,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Minnesota 19.6. UCLA ranks 4th in scoring opportunities, 5th in
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: rushing success against a Minnesota defense that ranks 80th in
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities allowed and 60th in rushing success allowed. Their quarterback,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: of course, Niko Yamilieva, out for the year. Offensive lineman
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Sam Yun. Y'all correct me in the comments. Jordan Davis
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: is out, too. As far as Minnesota's offense, I showed
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: it and clicked on that. Minnesota's offense here, this is
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: the matchup. This is where the rubber meets the road.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's offense is 138th in passing success. It's dead last.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Offensive line ranks 137th in line yards. UCLA's defense is
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: first in passing PPA, first on passing downs, eighth in
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: yards per rush. I mean, it's insane. UCLA's top two
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: defensive backs, Roger Pleasant and Tao Johnson, they're both out.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: As far as hidden yardage, UCLA's opponents rank 136th in
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: PPA margin. So the numbers that they've got came against
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: a very soft slate. Both teams play slow, which is
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: why the total sits at 39.5. As far as trends go,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: UCLA off an ATS cover. They've covered 13 of 16
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: games since 2024. Chesney is 23-10 over that span. The
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: counter is that Minnesota, as a conference dog, 10-4 against
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: the spread. Model total is 49.2. That's almost 10 points
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: over the market. But Minnesota at home, 24 unders in
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: 35 games, so I'm going to stay off the total.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: The ratings radar was a split at 6.5. to five
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: and a half kind of helps UCLA. I, the only
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: other game that was an early body clock game where
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: they were going across the country was against Maryland and
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: they beat them just to death, just destroyed them. Um,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to go against UCLA until they give
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: me a reason not to. Give me UCLA minus 5.5.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Minnesota has played Iowa in a really tough game. They
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: played Indiana in a really tough game that went to
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: overtime last week. And now UCLA coming off of a
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: win over Nevada. Yeah, I understand why people are betting
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Minnesota here. I'll take UCLA. UCLA minus 5.5, something around 23-13.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: That sounds about right. Iowa State at Baylor. Saturday, 11 a.m.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Central Time on FS1. Baylor open minus 8.5. They're all
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: the way up to 9.5 now. The total moved up
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: a point to 51.5. 70% chance of rain on this one. Now,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Rogers' first Iowa State team. They are 4-4 straight up.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: 4-4 against the spread. 65th in my ratings. They just
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: won a 51-49 shootout against Oklahoma State. Baylor is 5-3.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: And they are 6-2 against the spread. 35th in my
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: power ratings. after a 41-9 win at UCF on a
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: short week. That was after they fired Dave Aranda as
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: their head coach. Baylor goes to BYU next week, so
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: maybe watch the look ahead. I don't think we've got
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: to worry about it too much here. My projected score
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: is Baylor 31.4 to Iowa State 17.9, which you can
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: see on your screen here. Let's start with Iowa State
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: on offense. The matchup is pretty ugly for Iowa State.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Baylor's 7th in rushing success allowed it. Iowa State's offense
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: is 118th. Baylor, 7th in havoc against Iowa State's 115th.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Iowa State converts just 29.4% on third down. That's 134th
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: in the country. The running back, Flora, has 937 yards,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: but the receiver, Boyd, and their back, Ala, both of
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: those guys are out. As far as Baylor's offense against
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: this Iowa State defense, DJ Lagway, 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Baylor ranks 10th in scoring opportunities. against an Iowa State
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: defense that ranks 91st. Good gracious. The Cyclones allowed 8.0
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: yards per attempt thus far. Their defense is just gutted.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: They're in. Crawford is out. The tackle is Lamb and Moore.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: They're both out. Safety Alls is out. Baylor can't run it.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: They're 110th in yards per carry, so I don't think
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Iowa State's got to worry too much about that. As
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: far as hitting yards and strength of schedule and whatnot,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Baylor's defensive numbers came against some pretty weak offenses. If
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: you look, 119th is the average offensive PPA here. Iowa State,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: pretty good opponent PPA margin thus far. Number 19 in
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: the country. Number 17 as far as offenses faced. So
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: it makes sense that their defensive numbers are kind of trash.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Kind of trash. Iowa State is a conference dog. They've
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: covered 18 games out of 27 since 2016. But Iowa
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: State off of a cover, 11-19. This is a bit
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot. Baylor was a lean at 8.5.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: The extra point shrinks that edge, so, you know, this
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: is not one that I would actually play. The situation
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: has Baylor minus 12.1. Stats, Baylor minus 13.5. Power ratings,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Baylor minus 10.5. For the total, the model says 49.2.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Baylor at 50-54.5 has gone under 16 times in 23 games,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: so I kind of lean the under 51.5. But I'll
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: go ahead and take Baylor. They look good. I mean,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: last week against UCF, and now they get another team
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: that's in a letdown spot. Iowa State coming off of
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: that comeback last-second win over Oklahoma State, 51-49. Hit a
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: game-winning field goal there. Now they've got to go on
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: the road and deal with Baylor, who is a little
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: bit more rested. You know, they played on Friday night,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: traveled back home. They've got an extra day of rest.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Give me Baylor minus 9.5. I lean under on the 51.5.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: My prediction here, probably something close to the model, 31-17,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: something like that. That sounds about right. The injury report dropped.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: The depth chart has shifted. Somebody's backup running back has
• 14:20
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• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Duke at NC State. This one's Saturday, 11.30 a.m. Central
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Time on the CW. Duke is minus 5.5 as a favorite.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Total has moved up to 51.5 on this. NC State
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: fired Dave Doran on 10.24. Their interim coach, Goebel, won
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: his debut 31-10 over Cal as a 9.5-point favorite. Duke
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: blasted Boston College last week, 47-2. The only points Boston
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: College scored was off of a blocked extra point. How
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: crazy is that? Duke 6-2 straight up. They are 6-2
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: against the spread. I've got them power rated number 38.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: They've won three straight in this series. NC State now 4-4.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: They are 3-5 against the spread. Power rated number 56.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: They've played the 12th toughest schedule. We'll talk more about
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: that here in a little bit. Duke goes to Miami
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: next week. I don't know. If I was Manny Diaz,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I'd be looking ahead a little bit, but this is
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a rivalry game. Very important rivalry. to both of these schools.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: So my projected score here, Duke 28.2, NC State 24.3.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: So about four points of difference here between the two
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: as far as the stats model is concerned. Starting with
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Duke on offense, biggest gap is passing PPA. Duke is 24th,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: NC State's defense 111th. I mean, that's crazy. Crazy. NC
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: State allows 8.0 yards per attempt, and they score touchdowns
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: on 78% of red zone trips. That's 133rd. or they
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: allow touchdowns on 78% of red zone trips. Duke's kicker, Salas,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: is out. Two receivers are out. I don't know if
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: it'll make a huge difference here, but even still. When
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: NC State is on offense, Duke's defense first in rushing
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed, third on passing down. C.J. Bailey's got 13 touchdowns,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: four interceptions. NC State converts 52.5% on third down. That's
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: 10th in the country against Duke's 9th-ranked defense. So whoever
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: can win that battle is going to feel pretty good
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: about themselves, I think. Just a guess. NC State going
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: to be without their top back, Jaden Scott. Duke's secondary
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: is thin. The safety, Pellicciata. You've got to correct me
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: in the comments. And their corners, Robinson and Harmon, they're
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: both out. As far as hitting yardage, Duke's opponents rank
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: 134th in PBA margin. So their numbers have come against
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: a really, really soft slate. Duke, after and under, 10-2-2
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2024. But NC State is a
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: home dog, 15-6 against the spread. And in November, that
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: number is awesome, 14-6 against the number. This is going
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: to be my fade WCE game. My WCE 8 metric
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: has Duke favored by 8. 5 of the 6 models
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: lean NC State. My situation has Duke by. 9 points.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Duke by 1.7. The model total is 52.4.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: The over trends are strong, but 51.5 makes it only
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: a small lean to the over. I'm going to take
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: NC State. I think this team played a whole lot
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: better last week. They've got a little confidence and whatnot. Duke,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: you know, Manny Diaz, is he looking ahead to Miami?
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I doubt it, but there's still that thing kind of
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: lingering there. And this Duke team has played way above
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: their head all season. So I will take NC State here.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be something close to this score here,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: 28-24-ish in favor of Duke. But, yeah, NC State plus 5.5
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: is where I'm going to go. Arkansas at Auburn, Saturday,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Excuse me, 11.45 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: on the SEC Network. Auburn favored by 10.5, the total
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: jump from 50.5 to 53.5. These are both first-year coaches.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Both of them came over from the American, Ryan Silverfield,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Memphis to Arkansas, Alex Golesh, South Florida to Auburn. Both
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: teams lost by 24 or more last week. Arkansas lost
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: 34-10 to Missouri. Auburn lost 45-15 at Ole Miss. Neither
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: covered as a 10.5-point underdog. Arkansas 3-5 straight up. They
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: are 3-5 against the spread, 66th in my ratings. Auburn
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: is 4-4. They are 2-6 against the spread thus far.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: I've got them power-rated 33rd, so a pretty sizable gap here.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Projected score looks like somewhere around 31.1 for Auburn, 18.7
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: for Arkansas, starting with Arkansas on offense. They're in much
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: here for the Razorbacks. They run for 3.3 yards per carry.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: That's 128th with the 128th ranked offensive line. And they
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: score 21 points per game. That's 114th. K.J. Jackson has
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: seven touchdowns, five interceptions. Their top receiver, Chris Marshall, who
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: has 633 yards, he is questionable. Auburn, 15th in rushing
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed. It's still a D.J. Durkin defense. They're not great,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: but they do what they need to. Sometimes. They showed
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: it against Ole Miss, but still. When Auburn's on offense,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: Byron Brown, 484 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns. Arkansas's defense number
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: caught me off guard. 118th in rushing success allowed. Byron
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Brown should have a field day here. Razorbacks allowed touchdowns
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: on 85% of their red zone trips. That is 136th
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: in the country. Auburn's passing game I mean, woof. 105th
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: in yards per attempt, 124th in havoc allowed. As far
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: as hitting yardage, strength of schedule, all that good stuff.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: Auburn has played the second toughest schedule, Arkansas the 11th,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: per Sagarin. Auburn at home has covered only 3 of
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: 17 since 2024. Auburn after and over is 7, 18,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: and 2. Arkansas, as a dog, off of a loss,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: 32-17 and 1 against the spread since 2016. The counter...
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: And yeah, there's some trends that go a little weird. Arkansas,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: as a dog off of a loss, is really good.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Silverfield in conference games, 17-27-1 against the spread. The radar,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: like my ratings radar, is split. Three of my six models, well,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: half of the models, we'll say that, go sideways. Some
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: of them like Arkansas to cover, some of them like
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Auburn to cover. Median edge is minus 0.2. Every model
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: is within two points of the number. So when the
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: numbers are washed, I go with the trends, right? The
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: total moved up three points. The models make it 49.7.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: The trends disagree, so I'm going to stay off of that.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take Arkansas here. I don't think Auburn
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: can get a lot of separation on this. And I
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: think Arkansas will be able to put up some points
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: on this Auburn defense. Auburn 27-20? Is that kind of the... Yeah,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: 27-20 sounds fine. Give me Arkansas plus 10.5. Oklahoma State
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: at Kansas State. Saturday noon Central Time on TNT or TruTV,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: whichever one. I think it's on both of them. Oklahoma
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: State is a 4.5 point favorite, up a point from 3.5.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Total is 61.5. You've got two first-year head coaches. Again,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Eric Morris at Oklahoma State, Colin Kline at Kansas State.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State 5-3. Straight up 6-2 against the spread. 28th
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: in my power ratings after a loss 51-49 at Iowa State.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Kansas State 4-4 straight up and against the spread. I've
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: got them power rated 49th right now. They lost 27-24
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: in overtime at Colorado. Kansas State won this matchup 14-6
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: last year. Completely different Oklahoma State team. My projected score
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: on this one right now, just looking at the stats, 29.2-26.8.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's offense, we'll start with them. Drew Mestemaker, over 2,600
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: yards passing, 25 touchdowns. The Cowboys are averaging 9.7 yards
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: per attempt. That is seventh in the country. Caleb Hawkins
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: has 906 rushing yards. Oklahoma State is first in scoring
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: opportunities against the Kansas State defense that ranks 63rd there.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: They also rank 38th in rushing explosiveness against Kansas State.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: That is 134th. The Cowboys are 105th on third down,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: so they don't exactly extend drives here, but they might
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: against this defense. They really might. Now, when Kansas State's
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: on offense, they run for 5.79 yards per carry. That's
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: fifth in the country. They convert over 54% of the
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: time on third down. That's sixth in the country. Oklahoma
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: State's defense is 121st in passing explosiveness allowed. The big
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: question is going to be Avery Johnson. Questionable. The backup
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: is out. Again, two linemen are out for the year.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: This offense is just kind of a mess. I think
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: they were down to their fifth string guy against Colorado.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, just nasty. As far as hitting yardage, strength
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: of schedule, all the good stuff, Oklahoma State plays fast.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: 15th in plays per game. They score 40 points per game.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Kansas State has a dog off of a loss. They've
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: covered 16 of 22 since 2016. Oklahoma State, off of
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: a spread loss, 4-11 against the numbers since 2024. The
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: counter there is they got a brand new coach in
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Morris after an over, 14-6 against the spread. The ratings
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: radar was a lean at plus 3.5. Five of the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: six models with a median edge of 1.6. The extra
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: point adds to it, right? The model total is 55.9.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Kansas State, as a dog, has gone over 16 times
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: in 19 games. So I'm staying off of the total.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Kansas State has so many guys banged up. If we're
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: just looking at stats and Kansas State had their dudes,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: I would still pick Oklahoma State to win, but four
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: and a half would be too many. Not this time.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Not this time. Give me Oklahoma State. I think they
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: opened a can here. I don't think this defense is
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: going to be able to slow them down. I think
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: they might be a little mad about last week. And
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: I kind of expect them to score just at will here.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to go Oklahoma State 41-24, something like that.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I think they can really get some margin here. So
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: I will take Oklahoma State minus 4.5. Want extra Winning
• 25:45
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• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the community today.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Hi, this is TJ Reeves of Three Dog Thursday with
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: my partner Jason Powers. We're right here on the Winning
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Cures Everything YouTube platform as we love talking underdogs each
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: and every week. A 19, 9, and 2 month of
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: October that finished up with outright winners Baylor, Clemson, and
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: also USC at the Coliseum. What's going to happen this week?
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: BYU's an underdog in the Holy War at Utah. How
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: about Alabama's an underdog to LSU? And in the nightcap,
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: the number one team in the country, Miami's an underdog
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: at Notre Dame. We'll be discussing those games and much
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: more where? On Three Dog Thursday, every Thursday, right here
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: on the Winning Cures Everything platform.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: All right, we're almost halfway home. Do me a favor,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: hit that like button. Looks like that. Hit the subscribe button.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: And of course, tell me in the comments which of
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: these picks you think I've got wrong. I'm going to
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: be reading them. I'll be back Sunday. I'll see if
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: you were right or if you were wrong too. Texas
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: A & M at South Carolina, Saturday, 2 p.m. Central
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Time on ESPN. South Carolina, a 7.5 point favorite. Total
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: is 51.5. South Carolina, 5-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I've got them power rated number 20 in the country.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: Lenora Sellers threw for 301 yards, ran for 96 with
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: five touchdowns in a 42-25 win at Oklahoma last week.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: A & M right now, 4-4 straight up and against
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: the spread, 1-4 in the SEC. They're coming off a
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: 31-20 loss at Alabama as a 13.5 point dog. And
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: then they had a bye week last week. So two
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: weeks of rest against South Carolina, only having a week.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: My projected score here, South Carolina 28.7. A & M 24.4
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: on this. Now let's start with A & M on offense.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: It is ugly. Ugly for the Aggies. They rank 122nd
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: in yards per attempt at 6.3, 137th in passing explosiveness.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Marcel Reed, eight touchdowns, eight interceptions. South Carolina's defense, 25th
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: in scoring opportunities allowed, but 123rd in points per scoring opportunity.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: So if you get down there, you're going to finish
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: a drive. Their top defensive back, Quasheed Scott, he's out.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: A & M missing their receivers. Of course, Bussey and
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Williams and their back, Ridden Jr. When South Carolina's on offense,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: they run for 5.79 yards per carry. That's fifth in
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: the country. But they've got three offensive linemen that are
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: banged up here. A & M' s defense, 135th in passing
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed. They are third in red zone conversion allowed.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's kicker, Sanchez, he's out. That matters in a
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: game with a number... Like this one, right? Especially one
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: that's over a touchdown. As far as hidden yardage, both
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: teams have played pretty tough schedules. As far as Sagarin goes,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: both of them are inside the top 20. A &
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: M off of a bye. They've covered only 6 of
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: 22 since 2016, which is crazy to think about. In November,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: their numbers are even worse. 4-12-1 against the spread since 2021.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Elko off of a cover. 3-8 against the spread. The counter...
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Is South Carolina as a favorite off of Wynn? They've
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: only covered 5 of 17 since 2016. The radar, like
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: my ratings radar, is a lean here. 4 of 6
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: go a specific way with a median edge of 4.3.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Every model has South Carolina by only like 1.7 to 4.4.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: So you're getting 3 to 6 points of value. The
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: model total is 53. The A & M under trends disagree.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: I'm going to stay off of the total. I'll take
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M here. I know their numbers don't
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: look good and whatnot, but South Carolina, this is like
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the top of the market right now. huge win last
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: week now A & M off some rest yeah A
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: & M plus seven and a half I kind of
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: like the the score prediction here South Carolina 28 A
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: & M 24 I think A & M can stay
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: within that number to give me A & M plus
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: seven and a half Penn State at Washington this Saturday, 2.30 p.m.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Central Time on FS1. Washington favored by a point and
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: a half. The total up from 43.5 to 44.5. You
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: got a 65% chance of rain here. Matt Campbell's first
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Penn State team. They are 4-4 straight up and against
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: the spread. They're only 1-4 in the Big Ten. I've
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: got them power rated number 30 in my power ratings.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: I feel like that might be a little high. Jed
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Fish's Huskies, 5-3 straight up. Got them 3-5 against the spread,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: 37th in my power ratings. They have won two straight.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: That includes 17-10 at Nebraska. And boy, they sure didn't
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: look good for most of that game. 58 and a
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: half minutes of it. They looked awful. Penn State beat
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: them 35-6 in 2024. My projected score here, Washington 25.4,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Penn State 24.5. So less than a point between them.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Let's start with Penn State on offense. They lost their
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: top two receivers, Howard and Sowell. They run for 3.83
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's 108th. The offensive line is ranked
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: 100th in offensive line yards. Against the Washington defense, they're
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: ranked 7th in stuff rate. And let's see, they're 22nd
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: on third downs. Penn State's offense, 102nd on third down. Eh,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: not great. Not extending drives. When the Washington... Team is
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: on offense. It's really worse for them. They rank 110th
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: in passing success against a Penn State defense that ranks 12th.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: They allow 5.6 yards per attempt, which is fourth in
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: the country. And they rank first in passing explosiveness allowed.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: So Washington not going to have a ton of success
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: through the air here, I wouldn't believe. Washington runs for 3.52
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's 123rd in the country. The backfield
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: is pretty gutted. They got two offensive linemen out. It's
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: just kind of a mess. Penn State allows 4.92 yards
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: per carry, so that's their weakness, 116th in the country there.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: But Washington, I don't think, has the hosses to be
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: able to take advantage of that. As far as hitting
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: yardage is concerned, every against-the-spread point angle or angle points
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: to Penn State. Campbell is a conference dog. He's covered
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: 18 of 25 since 2016. Washington, off of a win,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: has covered only 4 of 16 games since 2024. Jed Fish,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: off of a cover, 3-10 against the spread. Ratings radar,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: it has an upset lean. 4 of 6 of my
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: models have Penn State winning with a median edge of 1.2.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Situational rating, WCE 8 factors. Both have Penn State favored.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: The model total is 49.9. The trends say under. I'm
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: going to stay off of the total. Penn State plus
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: one and a half is going to be my pick here.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Penn State 20-17, something along those lines. I think that
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: would be good for the Penn State fan base. Go
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: out and get you a win. Looks like a good win.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: It's tough to believe in it, but, man, looking at numbers,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: et cetera, I'll go Penn State. So Penn State plus
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: one and a half. Over to the Big 12, UCF
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: at Kansas. This one's Saturday, 2.45 p.m. Central Time on ESPN2.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Kansas favored by 2.5. The total is 47.5. Neither has
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: really moved. These are two teams that have lost two
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: straight each. UCF, that's not... Is that right? I don't
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: think that's right. UCF lost 41-9 to Baylor last week.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Kansas lost 22-16 at TCU, but they did cover... But
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Kansas beat Baylor the weekend before that. Okay, when I
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: put down they've lost two straight, that's both of them combined.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: They both lost last week, but they both won the
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: week before that. So, whatever. UCF, 4-4 straight up, 5-3
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: against the spread. I've got them 50th in my power ratings. Kansas,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: 3-5 straight up, 3-5 against the spread. And I've got
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: them power rated 57th. There's quarterback questions on both sides.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Alonzo Barnett III, going to be a game-time call. Keyon
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Jenkins is questionable for UCF. He went out in the
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: last game. Barnett came in. Still didn't look very good.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Isaiah Marshall is a game-time call for Kansas. Cole Ballard played.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Looked pretty good for Kansas last week. I mean, just
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: a mess. Just no idea what to expect here. Watch
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: your injury reports. That's the biggest thing I can stress
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: right now, this time of year especially. My projected score
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: for my stats model has Kansas 27.4, UCF 26.5. Let's
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: start with UCF on offense. First in rushing explosiveness at 21.8%
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: against a Kansas defense that ranks 12th. UCF is 123rd
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: in passing explosiveness. Kansas has a 21st ranked stuff rate
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: against a UCF line that is 111th in line yards.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: UCF going to be out there running back Swint and
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: two linemen here. When Kansas is on offense, second in
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities at 9.29 per game against a UCF defense
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: that ranks 119th. But Kansas is 111th in points per
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. They move the ball. They cannot finish drives. Kansas,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: of course, without the running backs, Dupree and Willis, UCF
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: missing their top linebacker, Carter, and a couple of defensive backs.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: As far as hidden yardage, Kansas has the special teams edge,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: 28th to 54th. But they rank 111th in turnover margin.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: UCF has played the toughest slate by opponent PPA margin.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Or one of the toughest. Number three in the country.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: And so, they have played some really good football teams.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: Leipold at home, as far as trends go, covered 34
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: of 50 games since 2016. As a home favorite, he's
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: 18-8 against the spread. UCF after and over, 17-36-1 against
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the number. UCF is... 13-25 against the spread in November.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: The counter to that trend is Kansas with a total
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: of 45-49.5. They are 4-9-1 against the number. Radar is
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: a split 3-3 on this one, median edge of negative 0.6.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I'm going to lean on the trends for this one.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: For the total, Kansas off a loss has gone over
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: 46 times out of 68 games. Kansas at that total, 45-49.5.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: 11 and three to the over the model total here
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: is 53.9. The model and the trends agree on this.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: So I would probably go over that 47 and a half. Um,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: you know, I'd, I'd probably go Kansas minus two and
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: a half here. Not probably. That's what I'm going to
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: do on this. Uh, make it something close to that, right?
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: 31 to 27, 31, 28. Um, That gets you a
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: cover and it gets you an over. Nothing too crazy.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I like Kansas minus two and a half.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Are you tired of sore knees or joints slowing you down?
• 37:19
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• 37:27
  Speaker 1: for 15% off over at GoSleeves.com. Vanderbilt at Mississippi State. Saturday, 3.15 p.m.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the SEC Network. Mississippi State. favored by 2.5.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: It's kind of tough to see that out of this
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: team without Kamario Taylor, but even still, Vanderbilt has been
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: that bad. The total is up from 47.5 to 48.5,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: and I'll tell you, I think the reasoning behind that
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: is because all the teams that this Puckett kid, backup
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: quarterback for State, all the teams that he's played against
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: have outrageous defenses. Really, really good. Now, you get Vanderbilt,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Jeff Lebby, going to have something dialed up here, I
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: would imagine. Vandy 3-5 straight up and against the spread.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: They are 0-5 in the SEC. They've lost five straight,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: most recently to Kentucky, before they had a bye week.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: They've had two weeks of rest. And State had to
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: play last week. They got walloped by Texas, even though
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Texas didn't look very good. But 31-3 at Texas. State,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: 4-4 against the spread and straight up. I've got them
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: 39th in my power ratings. That's 30 points higher than Vanderbilt.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: They've played the toughest schedule in the FBS season. Vandy,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: they host Alabama next week. I don't think anybody's looking
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: ahead to anything, though. My projected score here is Mississippi
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: State 32.4, Vanderbilt 21.6. Here's the catch. Both quarterbacks are out.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: State lost Kamario Taylor for the season. Their top rated player,
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Vandy Blaise Berlowitz, is out. The ratings were built with
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Taylor in here. And same for Vanderbilt, because you never
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: really know which quarterback It's going to be, but Jared
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Curtis is probably better. I don't guess it necessarily matters.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: We'll start with Vanderbilt on offense. Vandy runs for 3.4
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's 125th. They're 129th in scoring opportunities.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: State's front is just gutted, right? Their safety, Isaac Smith,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: three linemen, two linebackers are out. Vandy does face a
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: state defense that ranks 112th in passability. success allowed. So
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: the passing game has a lane here. As far as
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: State being on offense, it's tough to know exactly which
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: of these numbers is real without Kamario Taylor in there,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: but 49th in rushing success. And that going up against
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: a 124th ranked Vanderbilt defense as far as rushing success allowed.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Vandy is number 18 in, no, Mississippi State is number
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: 18 in passing explosiveness. Vandy's defense number 76. Vandy's defense
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: 118th on third down. They allow touchdowns on 73% of
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: red zone trips. Their top edge rusher, Brian Allen Jr.,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: is out for this game. As far as hidden yardage, etc.,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: State plays fast, 7th in plays per minute. That's a
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Libby thing. The trends all kind of point to Vandy.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Vandy is a road dog, has covered 10-12 since 2024.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Clark Lee as a dog is 14-5 against the spread.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: State off a spread loss is 9-19-1 against the number.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: But if you want some trends to go in opposite directions,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: State with a total from 45-49.5, 14-7 against the spread
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: since 2016. This is one of my best bets on
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: the radar. All six of my models, like Mississippi State,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: median edge of 7.5. It's the biggest on the card. Situation, power,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: stats all have state by 8.7 to 10.8. But all
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: of these numbers come with Taylor in there. And if
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: there's no Kamario Taylor, I don't know exactly what to
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: believe with it. But Vanderbilt has been so bad. And State,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: at home in Starkville, they're looking for something good. And
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: if you were going to beat anybody, it would have
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: to be this Vanderbilt team. That is just not very good.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: I'll go Mississippi State minus two and a half. I
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: could see them winning by like a touchdown. Could I
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: get four touchdowns from the Puckett kid?
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Puckett. Why not? Mississippi State 28, Vanderbilt 21. That sounds
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Yeah, I'll go Mississippi State, minus 2.5. Rutgers
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: at Wisconsin. We got a Big Ten battle here. Saturday, 3.15 p.m.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the Big Ten Network. Wisconsin is a 16.5
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: point favorite. Total is 45.5. Wisconsin, right now, 5-3 straight up.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: 4-4 against the spread. I've got them 31st in my
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: power ratings. They're coming off a 30-10 shutout loss at Iowa.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, just got destroyed there. Rutgers... 2-6 straight up,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: 4-3 against the spread. Got them power rated number 82.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: They covered in a loss to Michigan at home last week.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: The numbers didn't look good, but at the end of
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: the day, they had a chance to win that ballgame late.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: That's all you can ask for. Rutgers defense gives up 33.3
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: points per game. That's 127th. Wisconsin won the matchup 42-7
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: back in 2024. My projected score per the stats model,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: is Wisconsin 35.3 to Rutgers 16.7. Let's start with Rutgers
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: on offense. Their quarterback, Dylan Lonergan, a questionable, again, top
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: receiver KJ Duff, questionable too. Rutgers throws it okay, 8.1
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: yards per attempt. That's 41st in the country. Wisconsin's defense
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: allows just 5.6. That's 4th in the country. They allow
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: touchdowns on only 38% of red zone trips. That is
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: 5th nationally. Wisconsin, 7th in yards per rush allowed at 2.78.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: Now Wisconsin, when they're on offense, this is where Rutgers
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: gets hurt. Their defense allows 5.83 yards per carry, 136th.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: They're 138th in rushing explosiveness, which is dead last. The
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: secondary is gutted. Sanders, Williams, etc. are out here. The
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: problem is Wisconsin itself is 125th in rushing success and
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: 114th in passing success. They're running back Nate Palmer is out,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: so the depth isn't exactly the thickest, if you could
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: say that. As far as hitting yardage, strength of schedule, etc.,
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Rutgers getting 14 to 20.5 points. They have covered only
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: 5 of 20 games since 2016. Shiano in that spot
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: is 3, 9, and 1 against the number. Shiano off
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: of a cover, 11, 19, and 2 against the spread.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: The radar is split on this one. 3 of 6.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: With a median edge of 0.6, every model is within
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: about two points of the number. Model total, I've got
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: a 51.8, 6.5 over-ish. But fickle, 66 and 37 to
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: the under. And Rutgers on the road is 33 and
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: 15 to the under. So, model and trends disagree. I'm
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: off of the total here. I do like Wisconsin to
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: cover that 16.5, though. So, you give me something like...
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin 34-14, something along those lines. I could absolutely see that.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I could see some turnovers from Rutgers, etc. So give
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: me Wisconsin to bounce back in a big way after
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: just a humiliating loss at Iowa last week. And Rutgers
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: really fought, really fought with Michigan. But I like Wisconsin here.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: Give me Wisconsin minus 16.5. Let's say 34-14. Wisconsin. Louisville
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: at Georgia Tech. We've got an ACC battle on the
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: ACC network. Saturday at 6.30 p.m. Central Time. God's time zone.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Of course, Louisville is a 14.5 point favorite. The total
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: moved up a point to 61.5. So we're expecting some
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: points from the Cardinals here. Louisville 5-3 straight up. 5-3
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Number 19 in my power ratings. Three
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: straight wins, averaging over 40 points per game. They are
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: fifth in the country in scoring points per game. Georgia Tech,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: 2-6 straight up, 1-7 against the spread. Got them power-rated 87th.
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: They are really, really bad right now. They've lost three straight,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: most recently to Pitt, and that was Pitt with a
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: third-string backup quarterback. Just got annihilated. Louisville won this game
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: last year, 31-19. Next week, Louisville is at North Carolina.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech is at Clemson. Don't expect any look-aheads here.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: My projected score on this from the stats model, Louisville 37.9,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech 20.1. Louisville's offense and Georgia Tech's defense. Let's
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: start there. Huge, huge mismatch. I mean, just ridiculous. Louisville
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: 12th in rushing success against a Georgia Tech defense that
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: ranks 128th in that metric. Cardinals run for 5.9 yards
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: per carry. That's fourth in the country. against a defense
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: that allows 219 rushing yards per game. That's 134th nationally.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: There's only 138 teams, right? Louisville throws for 10.1 yards
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: per attempt. That's number three nationally. But Louisville, you know,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: without three offensive linemen, there's some depth issues there. Georgia
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Tech's top end, Noah Carter's out there. Their corners, White
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: and Mitchell, are game-time calls here. Georgia Tech doesn't have
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: enough talent on that side of the ball anyway. So...
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Depth pieces certainly not going to help with that. As
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: far as when Georgia Tech has the ball. I mean,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: it's just hard for Georgia Tech. They convert 30.6% on
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: third down. That's 135th. They score touchdowns on only 50%
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: of the red zone trips. Their lane is through the air. 7.9
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: yards per attempt against Louisville defense that allows over 250
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: yards passing per game. That's 130th. Louisville's stuff rate is 136th.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: That is the worst, well, close to worst in the FBS. Again,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: there's 138 teams. If you're 136, you may as well
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: be last. As far as hitting yards, strength of schedule, etc.,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Louisville's second half margin, plus 9, that's 10th in the country.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech's is minus 7, that's 123rd. So you could
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: not see two teams go in different directions in the
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: second half. The trends, though, trends are all Georgia Tech.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Louisville off a cover. They've covered only 20 of 54
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: games since 2016. Louisville on the road, 20 and 30
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: against the number. And Brent Key as a conference dog,
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: 14 and 6 against the spread. Brom as a conference favorite, 21, 32,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: and 1 against the number. The radar is a lean here.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: All six models agree with a median edge of 1.2.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Situation has Louisville minus 15.4. WCE 8 factors has Louisville
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: minus 15.9. Power rating has Louisville minus 15.1. Stats model,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: of course, has Louisville minus 17.8. For the total, the
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: overtrends are strong, but the model total is 58, so
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going to stay off of this one. I know
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: the trends go Georgia Tech. I'm going Louisville here. I
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: think they are rolling right now. Give me Louisville minus 14.5.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: I would say something like Louisville 41, Georgia Tech 21.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: That seems to make sense because I don't think Georgia
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Tech can score much, and I don't think they can
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: stop Louisville from scoring. And Brahms' offense is clicking right now.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: So Louisville minus 14.5. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more. The
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: latest WCE merch is now available. Support and rep your
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: favorite college football show today. Just visit winningcureseverything.com. All right,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: we've got two games left. If you made it this far,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: Go ahead, hit that like button, subscribe to the channel
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: if you hadn't already done that, and of course, leave
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: a comment with your best bet of the weekend. It
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: helps the channel more than you would know, but please
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: go ahead and do that. Like the video. Iowa at Northwestern. Saturday, 6.30 p.m.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone on Fox. Northwestern, a two
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. That is up a point
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: from one and a half. Kind of didn't expect that.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Total is up to 45 and a half. These two
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: are 6-2 football teams. Northwestern 4-3-1 against the spread. Iowa
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: 5-3 against the spread. Interesting. Interesting. Iowa, I've got number
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: 23 in my power ratings. Northwestern, number 27 in power ratings.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Iowa just shut out Wisconsin 30-0, covered as a 3.5-point
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: home favorite. Northwestern coming off a 34-26 loss at Oregon.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Didn't cover as a 4.5-point dog, even though they were
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: up 20-6 at the half. Not good. Not good. Iowa
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: won this game 40-14 in 2024. They have won four
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: of the last five against the Wildcats. Northwestern goes to
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Ohio State next week. My projected score here has Northwestern
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: favored at 26.3 to 22.3. So three points here for Northwestern.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: But that's just one of the models, right? We'll start
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: with Iowa on offense. And the run game is the thing.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: They rank second in rushing explosiveness against a Northwestern defense
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: that's ranked 116th. They are ninth in yards per carry
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: at 5.67. But their leading rusher, Kamari Moulton, had over
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: 500 yards on the season. He's out for the year.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Two linemen are out. The passing game is kind of
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: a problem. They can't seem to get it going with
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: Heklinski or Brown. 119th in passing success, 135th in explosiveness
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: against a Northwestern defense that's, you know, pretty good. Number
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: 13 in yards allowed per pass attempt. It's pretty crazy.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Knowing Northwestern's on offense. Hoo boy. Aiden Childs has 13
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: touchdowns and only one interception. Northwestern's 7th in the country
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: in passing explosiveness against an Iowa defense that ranks 103rd there, which...
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: That number is crazy to think about. Crazy. They're second
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: in red zone conversions at 97%. Iowa's defense is the
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: best unit on the field. First in PPA per rush.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: They are fifth in yards allowed per carry, 2.45. They're
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: eighth in the country in points allowed at 14.3 points
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: per game. As far as hidden yardage, there's a lot
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: of it here. Northwestern fifth in the country in turnover margin,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: but their opponents rank 113th in PPA margin, so it's
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: been a pretty soft slate. for Northwestern. Sagarin has Iowa's
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule at 26th. It's got Northwestern's at 45.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Iowa in conference games has covered 15 of 23 since 2024.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: Iowa on the road is 18 and 10 against the spread.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: My ratings radar kind of shows an upset lean here.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Five of my six models with a median edge of 2.3
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: at plus one and a half. The move to two
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: and a half adds a point here. Situationally and the
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: WCE8 factors both have Iowa favored. The model total is 48.6.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: The trends disagree, so I'm going to stay off of
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: the total, but Iowa 20, Northwestern 17, something like that.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Iowa didn't look good at Minnesota. They walloped. Walloped Wisconsin
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: last week. Now I think they can go on the
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: road and they can beat Northwestern, who's coming back from Oregon,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: kind of licking some wounds here. I will take Iowa,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: plus 2.5. Like I said, 20-17 Iowa. That makes sense.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: Hit an under. Boy, that feels like a Kirk Ferentz game.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: Punting is winning. Iowa plus 2.5. Finally, last game of
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: the week for us. We're doing a little Pac-12 after dark.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Texas State goes to Oregon State. This one's Saturday, 9.30 p.m.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the CW. Oregon State a 6.5 point favorite.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: Total is 72.5. It's up a point, and it's the
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: highest on the card. I mean, just ridiculous. These are
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: two top 20 offenses by points per drive. Oregon State
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: scores 42.7 points per game. That is fourth in the
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: country under Jamarcus Shepard, who is their new head coach.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: He was the wide receivers coach at Alabama last year
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: under Kalen DeBoer. Oregon State 5-3, straight up 6-2 against
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: the spread. I've got them 54th in my power ratings.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: They lost at Fresno State without covering last week. Texas
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: State 4-4, straight up 4-4 against the spread. I've got
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: them power rated 68th right now. They lost at Boise.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: They covered. They only lost by one point. Oregon State
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: goes to Boise next week, so watch the look-ahead spot here.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Projected score here is Oregon State 34.5 to Texas State 26.5.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Let's start with Texas State on offense. Texas State moves
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: the chains. It's over 55% on third down. That's second nationally.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: They are first in passing success at 45.8%. They are
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: first on passing downs. The run game, it's really good too.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Seventh in the country, 5.77 yards per carry. The problem
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: is the red zone. They rank 132nd in conversion percentage.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Their running back, Jackson, is questionable here. Oregon State's defense
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: has got a couple of linebackers, Shaw and Ione, that
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: are out, and they've got a defensive back that's suspended.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Now when Oregon State's on offense, it's another mismatch. Oregon
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: State 10th in points per scoring opportunity. Texas State's defense
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: is 126 there. Oregon State throws for 9.3 yards per attempt.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: That's 14th. Texas State's defense is 123rd in passing success allowed.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: Oregon State scores touchdowns on 81% of red zone trips.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Let's look at hidden yardage. Oregon State's offensive numbers came
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: against soft defenses, right? They rank 128th in defensive PBA faced.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Oregon State, off of a spread loss, as far as
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: trends go, only 4-12 against the spread since 2024. The
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: counter is that Oregon State at home, in Corvallis, we've
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: all talked about Corvallis, nightmares, and all that good stuff.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Oregon State at home, 20-11 against the spread. My ratings
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: radar A bit of a split here. 3 of 6,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: medium edge of negative 0.1. But my WCE8 has Oregon
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: State by only 2.2. Model total is 60.9. I don't
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: like that. Even with the number as high as it is,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can't bet under here, right? I wouldn't
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: think so. Boy, I've gone back and forth on this
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: game so many times. That's crazy. Model total is 60.9.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: It's 11.6 under the market. Biggest under gap on the card.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Texas State as a road dog, 27-15 to the under.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Oregon State in November is 14-6 to the under. The
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: model and the trends agree. I mean, maybe I should
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: go under that 72.5. I think these two teams are
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: going to play ping-pong. So if I had to go
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: a certain way, I'd probably lean the over, really. But
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: I will take Texas State plus 6.5. I think they
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: got things rolling at Boise last week. Oregon State's going
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: to have trouble stopping them. So, you know, could I
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: see something like 41-38? Yeah, I could see that. Something
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: along those lines.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: 45-41?
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Whatever it is. But I'll take Texas State plus six
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think they will stay very, very
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: close here. All right, that's all 15 games, everybody. Now,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: before I get to the record, before I get to
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: the results, go ahead and hit the like button. Subscribe
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: if you haven't done that yet. Jump in the comments
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: with your best bet of the weekend. And, of course,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: if you want the deep dives, the notes and whatnot,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: head over to buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. Become a member over there.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: You're going to get the recaps. You're going to get
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: the game notes. You'll get stat sheets from every game
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: that we covered today along with every FBS versus FBS matchup.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: And I even give you my best bets over there,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: and I'll tell you more about that here in a minute.
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the record. I'll start with
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: the next 15 because last week was really rough. Next
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: 15 official show picks went 4-11 in Week 9. The
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: stats model went 7-8. Dogs went 1-3. For all of
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: Week 9, the official show picks were 11-20. Shame. Shame
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: on me. Stats model was 15 and 16. The underdogs
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: went 4 and 7. Across all four models, the power
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: ratings were the best at 18 and 13. That's 58.1%.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: My situational model went 16 and 15. The stats model
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: went 15 and 16. My WCE8 went 14 and 17.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: If you zoom out on the next 15 over the
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: last three weeks, show picks are 19 and 26. The
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: stats model is 25 and 20. So that's why you're
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: kind of seeing me weigh the whole radar and not
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: just my WCE8, not just my stats model, whatever. I'm
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Some of these weeks have been rough trying to figure
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: this out. And the models are not. The models are
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: normally okay. But this year, it has not been great.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: Has not been great. So, for the season, though, 242
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: graded picks. Official show picks, as you can see on
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: your screen, 123 and 19. Sorry, 123 and 119. That's 50.8%.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Stats model is 129 and 113. That is 53.3%. Underdog picks,
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: 52% at 52 and 48. Over on Buy Me A Coffee,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: my season best bets, doing pretty good over there. 49, 36,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: and 3 against the number. Up 6 units on the season.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: Went 2 and 6 last week, but that was after
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: a 9 and 2 week before that. So, pretty hit
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: or miss here lately. But, you know, buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: is where the official plays live. So, if you want them,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: that's where you can get them. It's $ 5 a month,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: $ 50 for the year. You've heard enough about that now.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: All right. That is going to do it for our
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: 10 best games of week number two. Well, sorry, our
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: 15 best games. 15 more games. Gracious. It's going to
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: do it for our 15 more games of week number 10.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: This is a massive week. Massive week. All right. Be
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: a member. BuyMeCoffee.com slash winningcures. Until next time, take care
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: of yourself. Take care of each other. God bless college football.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: Hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: Follow at GaryWCE on X and check out the web stories.