Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Day 3 of the 2026 Crop Tour (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) with Ohio Estimates

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Day 3 of the 2026 Crop Tour (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) with Ohio Estimates · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Green Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_02: This year's crop tour is sponsored by Green Key Egg, a plant nutrition company that takes your fields to their max potential.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_02: Please contact Noah at 712-441-5446.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: All right, today we've got August 5th.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to talk about another day of the Crop Tour day three with Jaden House Log here.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: How's it going, Jaden?
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: It's going good, Mike.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: I'm on the crop tour, so can't complain.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, it's always a fun time.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_02: Today we're going to talk a little bit about just the market up front here.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_02: Talk about the route you did yesterday, give an Ohio yield estimate, and then talk about the Stone X survey that came out last night as well.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: So, December corncade, you want to pull that chart up.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_02: We've got uh some interesting action going on.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: We continue to find support in the high 450s there.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: Longer term support would be very close to 449, 450.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm curious if we do dip down there before we've got the WASDA report that comes out next Wednesday at 11 o'clock.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm looking forward to that uh that survey.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_02: And uh it's gonna be interesting because NAS, that's their first WASDA report they do of the year.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: So we'd typically see some massive changes through the WASDA port in that report.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_02: And with the sell-off right about 50% here, uh I'm curious if we'll get a little bit closer to that 450 type area, something a little closer to that 60% retracement or so.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_02: But this weakness here definitely stemming from we've had some weather issues that have all of a sudden uh found some rainfall.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_02: We've found a wet forecast, a little bit cooler, uh a little bit cooler this week, for example.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: Uh the wars really aren't producing much uh traction for any bullish activity there.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_02: The winter wheat and and Chicago wheat and spring wheat have all been uh held held back as well lately.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: They've struggled to find traction and uh and push this market higher than we were at uh at the end of uh middle of July there.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_02: So a few things.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: China buying's been significant.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_02: They continue to peck along, nothing substantial or any major breaking news there, but they are about 15 or 14 percent of their total target, I believe, there uh as we're uh approaching that uh first meeting, supposedly taking place with uh G and Trump.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_02: So I want to talk about the route a little bit yesterday that you took there, Jaden, through Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and back to Indiana.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_02: So take it away.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Mike.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: So started there in central Illinois, um and things we saw in Illinois, um, pretty interesting looking crop there.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: So overall conditions, if you just look from the road, look pretty good, really good.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: Everything's dark green, the lawns, including uh, you know, a lot different locally than where we're our office there in Laverne, Minnesota.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, looking at some of the samples, like you have the arcade pulled up, you know, some of the maturity levels kind of all over the board there.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: So the first stop in, you know, more of the western part of Illinois, you know, pretty close with Iowa, um, pretty close with last year's yield estimates.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: So had that county around the 200, 220 yield.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: But as we moved further east, you know, maturity ranged all over the board.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we we even pulled some samples that was get even hard to you know guess the yield on.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um saw a lot of drown out spots, but the spots that were still standing um looked looked really good.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: So the question is for Illinois, I think here going forward is are those drown-out spots gonna um really put a damper on this yield, or the you know, the higher spots make up for that.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: And kind of saw the same thing in the Indiana, Ohio as well.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um everything looked over green lawns including.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: Um soybeans looked really good.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that was one thing we really noticed as well.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but you know, our customer stops in Indiana, Ohio, they they were still pretty hopeful on their crop.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um you know, we made a stop there but northwest Ohio there by Lepic.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: And um the customer there, you know, came off a pretty good year last year and you know, despite some of the planning delays.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um he's really hopeful in his crop this year, so not a lot of drought there.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: They did just catch a recent rain.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and some of the samples we pulled were going around that 220 yield level.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: So um overall, pretty optimistic out east is just whether this um, you know, too much rain here early on is really gonna put a damper on this crop.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_02: Not too much talk about uh I mean they were planting into late May there, right?
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_02: So uh did they seem too concerned about that and cr uh crop getting rushed along too quick or anything like that?
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's kind of funny.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we did have that conversation with our Ohio customer out there, and you know, he was saying, you know, some of his later planted corn does better some years.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: So he he wasn't too concerned about it, but um, I mean, yeah, I would say, you know, Western Corn Belt, we're about two weeks ahead of these guys out east here on the maturity level.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be interesting to see um how it how it comes along here going forward, but you could maybe make the argument uh a rain here going out east is gonna be more beneficial rather than out west as this crop's further behind out here.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_02: Awesome.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_02: We're gonna give an Ohio yield estimate.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_02: So I just wanted uh you to break down how we're sitting on that, I guess, first the last couple of years.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_02: So any any big takes on the Ohio yield estimate?
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, Ohio, I think I think we're gonna stick around a 188 yield.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: So um just for reference, last year they're around a 185, records a 198.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so yeah, I talking to farmers are still pretty optimistic.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: There was, you know, some planning delays, but it seems like they have that every year.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: Um out east here.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: They get pretty wet pretty fast.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so I I still think it's gonna be better than last year based off the samples of cold and the conditions we saw.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but it'll just be interesting to see what what the drownout spots are gonna have for an impact on for state yield for Ohio.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, 23 Ohio really blew it out of the water with that 198 yield that they had there, that was a pretty good outlier.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_02: Uh but yeah, last year 185, so maybe just slightly above that, it looks like.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_02: And and uh as we get into the Stone X estimates, this is always a fun day.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: This always comes out during our crop year most years.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's always fun to kind of compare halfway through and how to see how we're sitting apples to apples.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_02: And a few of the standouts, so they're at a 184.8 in the survey.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_02: We were professional like marketing, we were in the survey as well for whatever it's worth.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_02: 184.4 on the yield on corn, 53 on soybeans.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_02: So uh very barely above trend line.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, uh a few of the states that really stick out.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_02: 218 out of Iowa looks great there.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_02: So I'll be surprised um if we're if we are lower, it shouldn't be much less.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_02: But uh Iowa for what it's worth, 211 was their yield prior for a record, so pretty high.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_02: South Dakota and Nebraska seem a little high.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um uh we'll we'll see how that goes, especially with North Dakota up there too.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_02: They're struggling.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_02: Minnesota looks great so far from what we see at home here.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_02: And uh going out east Illinois at 212 there, Jaden, that'd be uh five off a record.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_02: Last year they're about 214, so just barely below last year.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_02: They've got some problems there, as you've been finding.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_02: But uh Indiana 203, Ohio 187.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: So very close to your Ohio estimate there to compare.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_02: But overall, the number at 184.8.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_02: Um what what are your thoughts about that number just being out on the crop tour, Jaden?
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so far from what we've seen, I questioned some of the Western estimates there, the Nebraska 190, and like you said, the South Dakota, North Dakota.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: But you'll be hitting those routes here tomorrow.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: But uh I I'm really skeptical of those guilds out west, that's for sure.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_02: Very much so.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_02: It'll be hard to not cherry pick some of the problem makers in the Western Corn Belt.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_02: This was a survey done by Stone X as it always is, so uh they don't have a lot to do with the numbers, just collecting it, but nonetheless, uh, you know, pretty pretty nice yield, just barely above trend line there for uh for their numbers.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_02: On the balance sheet, you start to talk about it, and that's probably gonna get you over an 11% stocks to use ratio pretty comfortably at least.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: So um with that being the case, you're probably still not quite uh 12%, but historically that's four to four seventy five corn, pretty much mid-4s.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_02: So uh that'd be uh a little bit of an estimate there, just uh given what we've seen.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_02: So pretty good demand this year on the corn crop, and uh we've been using a lot of it.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_02: Great exports, ethanol usage has been fantastic, so uh no real complaints there.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_02: Any other final thoughts after your uh uh last day on the crop tour here?
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: No, we'll we'll just keep chugging along.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: We'll let everyone know what we think here on Friday on our national yield estimate.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think it is worth noting that Stonex estimate.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the USD of the August number they come out with, um, some of that is you know derived from surveys too.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: So um Stonex normally has a pretty pretty high correlation to the August yield there as well.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: So don't be surprised if you see a high number here next week.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: Same with the NDVI satellite imagery, a lot of that 186 to 187 area on those.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_02: So I won't be surprised if next Wednesday we come out with a pretty high yield in that August Was airport, kind of like we had last year.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_02: So uh we'll give that a shot next Wednesday at 11.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_02: Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, your next stops here on the crop tour.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm looking forward to following you there.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_02: Uh Thursday is your last day of the crop tour.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_02: I'll be doing um a few stops here in Minnesota and South Dakota coming up for the Northern Crop Tour just for tomorrow.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so we'll keep you posted on those results.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_02: Otherwise, please click the link on the description below, go to our website, uh, click subscribe.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_02: You can find some really cool stuff.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_02: Cade's got popped up there, our 26 crop tour blog where you can find the route, plug in your own yield estimates, calculators, you can plug with the states as well.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_02: So you uh you get to play around with the same things we do and uh kind of see what Jaden and the team are finding out and about, along with our aerial crop tour we took uh about a month or so ago as well.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: So if you have any questions, please reach out, send us some samples, and we'll see you next time.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.