Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 61 : 50/50 & 2024 Disappointments

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Ep. 61 : 50/50 & 2024 Disappointments · Cards & Categories

0:16
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode sixty one of Cards
0:20
Speaker 1: and Categories. I'm Mike Coolard from Rasball, joined as always
0:23
Speaker 1: by my very good friend Jeremy Burwer, also from rasball.
0:27
Speaker 1: How are you doing tonight, buddy.
0:29
Speaker 2: Doing well? Getting ready and warmed up to the postseason? Yes?
0:33
Speaker 2: About time.
0:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, those postseason races got hot after we discussed them
0:37
Speaker 1: last week. I didn't even like I had totally put
0:40
Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks into the playoffs. I'd forgotten that they were
0:43
Speaker 1: collapsing on us. So like that NL Wild Card has
0:46
Speaker 1: gotten fun. And I have to assume if you're like
0:50
Speaker 1: us and you're listening to this pod and you know
0:53
Speaker 1: what it's about, and I've seen some of the two
0:55
Speaker 1: hour run times, and also if you're looking for like
0:59
Speaker 1: the show detail and stuff like that, certainly check that
1:02
Speaker 1: out and we've got all the links and everything on
1:05
Speaker 1: wherever you're listening. Certainly also check out rasball dot com
1:08
Speaker 1: for the post that goes with this. But on Monday,
1:11
Speaker 1: I'm not watching Monday Night football, baby, I'm watching that
1:14
Speaker 1: Mets Braves doubleheader that is, I mean, unfortunately had to
1:17
Speaker 1: be moved because of the coming hurricane down there.
1:19
Speaker 2: But wow, what a.
1:20
Speaker 1: Feature for baseball to have that doubleheader, which should ultimately
1:24
Speaker 1: decide a playoff spot for sure, if not maybe two
1:27
Speaker 1: at the end of the day.
1:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're absolutely right. That's gonna be just pure entertainment.
1:33
Speaker 2: It could be completely meaningless when we get there, but
1:35
Speaker 2: it's looking like it will matter, and you know it's
1:40
Speaker 2: gonna be you know, I would say down to the
1:42
Speaker 2: wire here, but we're gonna have a lot of entertainment
1:45
Speaker 2: with the Royals, the Mets, the Braves all playing each other,
1:51
Speaker 2: and that's gonna gonna make it quite entertaining to see
1:55
Speaker 2: who's speaks by here. You know, if it wasn't the
2:00
Speaker 2: Twins completely just to say that we maybe we will
2:03
Speaker 2: just try this again next year, you could have had
2:05
Speaker 2: a little bit more even more fun, uh in the race.
2:09
Speaker 2: But I have to think, I don't know if you agree,
2:11
Speaker 2: but I have to think the Tigers have kind of
2:13
Speaker 2: locked themselves in behind the Ogels into that probably second
2:17
Speaker 2: wild card spot in the Al, mainly because they finished
2:20
Speaker 2: against the White Sox.
2:22
Speaker 1: And so it's exactly I think that it's pretty much
2:25
Speaker 1: a three game gimme at the end of the season
2:26
Speaker 1: for the Tigers. And I mean, if they do lose
2:29
Speaker 1: any of those then also you got to feel like
2:32
Speaker 1: if you've lost any of those games to the White
2:34
Speaker 1: Socks to miss the playoffs, you kind of maybe deserve it.
2:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, you absolutely do, but you know, at least you
2:41
Speaker 2: know it's all they like. The thing I love is
2:44
Speaker 2: almost all these teams are playing against each other in
2:46
Speaker 2: some way, shape or form, like you know, schedule makers
2:49
Speaker 2: couldn't have predicted even like going across across the leagues here,
2:52
Speaker 2: but the Braves, the Mets are playing, the Braves are
2:55
Speaker 2: playing the Royals, the Orioles are playing the Twins, the like.
2:59
Speaker 2: It's literally they're all playing each other. So anything can
3:02
Speaker 2: actually happen at this point, which is which is great.
3:04
Speaker 2: I know, I you know, kind of you know, poop
3:06
Speaker 2: poot on the Twins here, I'm dropping two games backs
3:09
Speaker 2: to three and seven the last ten and they've just
3:12
Speaker 2: not looked good. But you know, it is going to
3:16
Speaker 2: be really great coming out of the last weekend here.
3:19
Speaker 2: And to your point, the kind of finish up there
3:23
Speaker 2: between the the the Braves and the Mets could really
3:27
Speaker 2: make a decision. But you have to feel good for
3:29
Speaker 2: the Diamondbacks even though they're they're scuffling, you know, with
3:33
Speaker 2: the Braves and the Mets playing against each other, that's
3:36
Speaker 2: that's you know, gives them the best best chance to
3:39
Speaker 2: sneak in there, because if one goes to and oh,
3:42
Speaker 2: the other goes to zero and two, if they both
3:44
Speaker 2: go one and one, like the Diamondbacks kind of have
3:47
Speaker 2: their their destiny in their hands at this point. Granted
3:51
Speaker 2: they're playing the Padres, who have been you know, hotter
3:54
Speaker 2: than heck.
3:55
Speaker 1: So yeah, and we're speaking on Wednesday, September twenty fifth here,
4:00
Speaker 1: and so we're actually speaking right on the heels of
4:02
Speaker 1: the Padres last night clinching their playoff spot with a
4:05
Speaker 1: triple play to end the game, which is really one
4:08
Speaker 1: of the more amazing things I've seen. Also last night
4:11
Speaker 1: we had the Oakland Athletics in their last game in
4:14
Speaker 1: the Coliseum, hit a walk off with Jacob Wilson there.
4:17
Speaker 1: So it is just been really cool to see some
4:20
Speaker 1: of these storylines really come together at the end of
4:23
Speaker 1: the season. It's what we really love to see as
4:26
Speaker 1: baseball fans out there, because once you can start putting
4:29
Speaker 1: like those seminal moments in your memory bank, that's what
4:33
Speaker 1: it's all about. And we might have gotten the biggest
4:36
Speaker 1: one last week. As honestly, I'm impressed that this happened
4:40
Speaker 1: on the Thursday, So it's we're maybe like the last
4:42
Speaker 1: podcast on Earth related to baseball that is discussing this.
4:47
Speaker 1: But anything that great that happens on Thursday, it's a
4:51
Speaker 1: point for us because usually it's a cursed day with
4:54
Speaker 1: us posting this pod, usually tons of injuries. And we'd
4:57
Speaker 1: even talked about Otani last week on the pod about
5:00
Speaker 1: maybe pitching in the postseason. It does seem that that's
5:02
Speaker 1: been maybe shuffled to the side. But Otani came out
5:06
Speaker 1: on Thursday and put up what is uh. I think
5:10
Speaker 1: it's the greatest offensive game of all time, Like there
5:12
Speaker 1: have been other games that have come to light in
5:15
Speaker 1: terms of both the Rick Wise Rick Wise at one
5:19
Speaker 1: point in the seventies threw a no hitter and hit
5:21
Speaker 1: two homers in the same game, and then I forget
5:25
Speaker 1: who it was, but there was a Red Sox pitcher
5:27
Speaker 1: also in the seventies who through a complete game and
5:30
Speaker 1: hit two Grand Slams. So those are probably the greatest
5:33
Speaker 1: games that have ever happened. But in terms of an
5:35
Speaker 1: offensive game, I think that this even tops any of
5:39
Speaker 1: the like hitting Mark Witten for homer games. I was
5:42
Speaker 1: thinking Sean Green on the Shawn Green game that especially
5:46
Speaker 1: this Otani game against the Marlins on Thursday last week.
5:50
Speaker 1: He went six for six, four runs, three homers, two doubles,
5:54
Speaker 1: two stolen bases, and ten RBI. So on top of
5:59
Speaker 1: it too, he also got thrown out trying to stretch
6:02
Speaker 1: one of those doubles into a triple. It could have
6:05
Speaker 1: been a lone cycle, which would have been like otherworldly,
6:12
Speaker 1: but like it Yeah, wow, what an insane game. The
6:15
Speaker 1: third homer did come off of a position player pitcher, but.
6:18
Speaker 2: Like Geners really bringing the heats.
6:21
Speaker 1: So yeah, So, I mean, maybe that does take it
6:23
Speaker 1: down a notch, especially when you're comparing it to those
6:26
Speaker 1: other games that involve the pitching. But you've got to
6:29
Speaker 1: know that if Otani's been hearing anything about the greatest
6:33
Speaker 1: games after he posted this game on Thursday, he now
6:36
Speaker 1: knows about the Rick Wise game and can try to
6:40
Speaker 1: top it sometime next year as he takes the mound again,
6:44
Speaker 1: maybe even the playoffs. I still think he.
6:46
Speaker 2: Might not happen.
6:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, Andrew Freeman poopoo did, but yeah, I don't even
6:52
Speaker 1: like it has just been like an avalanche of I
6:55
Speaker 1: saw the homer to get to the fifty to fifty,
6:57
Speaker 1: and then when he hit like the next homer, and
7:00
Speaker 1: then the next homer and then all the stolen bases.
7:02
Speaker 1: That's the other factor I didn't even discuss yet, is
7:05
Speaker 1: that this is what pushed Otani over the fifty to
7:07
Speaker 1: fifty mark. First person ever reached that as well as like,
7:11
Speaker 1: I think the highest other other stolen based total if
7:15
Speaker 1: you've hit fifty homers is maybe twenty four. I think
7:18
Speaker 1: it was done by Willie Mays and a Rods, So
7:21
Speaker 1: he's blown that out of the water. Even if you're considering,
7:24
Speaker 1: you know, hey, stolen bases are a little cheaper nowadays,
7:27
Speaker 1: but wow, I don't it's incredible that Otani can keep
7:32
Speaker 1: just like topping himself and me and that Otani PC
7:36
Speaker 1: are loving it. What have you been enjoying the most
7:39
Speaker 1: about this just revolution that has happened with Otani, not
7:44
Speaker 1: only on that Thursday but the entire year.
7:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's so interesting to watch
7:51
Speaker 2: because he has come out in blown expectations out of
7:55
Speaker 2: the water, like everybody thought he's gonna be good, but
7:57
Speaker 2: there's all these questions coming to the season of like,
8:00
Speaker 2: how is he gonna hit well, recovering from pitching and
8:02
Speaker 2: all these kind of things, and you know, it's it's
8:05
Speaker 2: not inconceivable here that he finishes fifty five to fifty five.
8:08
Speaker 2: I mean, he needs two more bombs and he's already
8:10
Speaker 2: got fifty five steels, so like he's probably gonna have
8:12
Speaker 2: another two of these games and go sixty sixty, Right,
8:15
Speaker 2: It's gonna be something ridiculous. But you have to say,
8:19
Speaker 2: this is this is one of the most impressive seasons.
8:22
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna get to the debate of the best
8:23
Speaker 2: season of all time. That's probably been one of the
8:25
Speaker 2: most entertaining and frustrating things about all this is watching
8:28
Speaker 2: everybody argue about how terrible Otani is, he's only a
8:31
Speaker 2: DH and how wonderful he is because nobody's done this before.
8:34
Speaker 2: But it's harder to hit sixty home runs, Like it's
8:37
Speaker 2: like comparing to judges. I don't care, Like this is otherworldly.
8:42
Speaker 2: This has never been done before, and it's incredibly impressive.
8:45
Speaker 2: And it's not about the comparison, is it the best
8:47
Speaker 2: or not. It's just it's amazing. And I think, to me,
8:51
Speaker 2: that's the key here. And knowing that he could pitch
8:55
Speaker 2: you know, cy Young caliber and do this, Like I'm saying, going, man,
9:01
Speaker 2: what like is this guy still the limit for him?
9:05
Speaker 2: Like what what else can he do? And he's definitely
9:08
Speaker 2: making that contract seem worth it, especially the two million
9:11
Speaker 2: he's getting paid this year. Maybe the Ferral's a little questionable,
9:13
Speaker 2: but it's Yeah, it's been absolutely fantastic to watch still one.
9:18
Speaker 2: I just I just don't know what more he can do. Yeah,
9:24
Speaker 2: It's it's like one of those adagudes, like if only
9:26
Speaker 2: he could pitch right, and he can. So this has
9:31
Speaker 2: been fantastic for a Tani So happy to see him
9:33
Speaker 2: healthy all year, looking forward to see what he with
9:36
Speaker 2: him getting back on the mound and can he continue
9:38
Speaker 2: this type of production from a hitting perspective. And no,
9:41
Speaker 2: don't get me wrong, I don't expect another fifty to
9:43
Speaker 2: fifty season, But you know, it's not inconceivable pitching for
9:46
Speaker 2: the Dodgers that he goes like fifteen and three with
9:49
Speaker 2: a two nine ERA and goes forty forty Like it.
9:53
Speaker 2: The the Otani MVP chant for the next ten years, right,
9:57
Speaker 2: is real. It's hard to argue against it.
10:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean this is actually one of my
10:04
Speaker 1: favorite new things that I've found on our site that
10:08
Speaker 1: Gray shared with us in the Discord recently, and I
10:11
Speaker 1: just go back to it constantly just to scroll through
10:13
Speaker 1: it when I'm bored. It is the all time player
10:17
Speaker 1: raider of like the greatest seasons that have ever happened
10:19
Speaker 1: from a fantasy perspective. So number one in our all
10:22
Speaker 1: time RAS ball player Raider is actually last year's Ronald
10:26
Speaker 1: Lacuna year was worth seventy one point four dollars. The
10:29
Speaker 1: Otani season right now where he's at is sixty eight
10:33
Speaker 1: and a half dollars, so that puts him second right now.
10:35
Speaker 1: It's just like, yeah, the top of this list is great,
10:38
Speaker 1: so you can remember when you had your Ty Cobb
10:40
Speaker 1: shares in nineteen oh nine, or Ken Williams in nineteen
10:44
Speaker 1: twenty two, Ken Williams from the Saint Louis Browns, not
10:47
Speaker 1: Kennye Williams, the White Sox former GM, all the way
10:51
Speaker 1: down to yeah, number twenty four, Tommy Holmes nineteen forty five.
10:55
Speaker 1: It's a great list. Of course, it's tons of like
10:58
Speaker 1: Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner's on there a lot, and
11:01
Speaker 1: Ty Cobb. When you know, just these other worldly players.
11:05
Speaker 1: I think that shows you kind of what this season
11:07
Speaker 1: is for Otani in terms of that all time value,
11:10
Speaker 1: and he's sneaking up on Akunya. I think just a
11:13
Speaker 1: couple more homers and a couple more stone bases, which
11:18
Speaker 1: I think fifty five fifty five is happening, given that
11:20
Speaker 1: the Dodgers end their season at Coors Field, that it
11:24
Speaker 1: does feel like the capstone to the fifty five to
11:27
Speaker 1: fifty five comes with some sort of like five hundred
11:31
Speaker 1: and fifty five foot homer or something in cores that
11:33
Speaker 1: just going to like blow our minds. It does seem
11:36
Speaker 1: that Otani has a penchant for meeting the moment and
11:40
Speaker 1: being able to just provide the entertainment and the boost
11:44
Speaker 1: that baseball I think needs. This is great, I think
11:46
Speaker 1: for baseball overall. That I have, you know, co workers
11:50
Speaker 1: at my normal day job who don't follow baseball necessarily,
11:55
Speaker 1: but you know, follow sports and have different news sources,
11:58
Speaker 1: and they were asking me about this after it happened,
12:01
Speaker 1: just because it had broken through into the mainstream so
12:05
Speaker 1: heavily between the Great Game on Thursday and the fifty
12:08
Speaker 1: to fifty marks.
12:09
Speaker 2: So and if you can just imagine he's hitting lead off, Yes,
12:13
Speaker 2: he's hitting lead off. What would happened if he's in
12:15
Speaker 2: the two or the three spot. Maybe a few less steals,
12:17
Speaker 2: but maybe like twenty thirty more RBI. Like it's it's
12:21
Speaker 2: just been incredible to think that this could be even more.
12:25
Speaker 2: But that just makes it the season so much more
12:27
Speaker 2: unbelievable and comparable to Acuneus. It intends to play out
12:32
Speaker 2: of the leadoff as well, So yeah, absolutely absolutely outstanding.
12:36
Speaker 2: Is still to be seen where he finishes up here,
12:39
Speaker 2: but it's it's gonna be really Nonetheless, I just hope
12:42
Speaker 2: he cares into the playoffs and and just absolutely carries
12:47
Speaker 2: the Dodgers through. Well I say that Tony, not the Dodgers,
12:52
Speaker 2: because that does hurt me a little bit there.
12:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hope that, especially since he'll be his first
12:57
Speaker 1: time there. There's also we're gonna get in to a
13:00
Speaker 1: little bit of card news first here before we get
13:02
Speaker 1: into our standard fantasy news and notes, because the relation
13:06
Speaker 1: here with Otani is tops Now created a fifty to
13:09
Speaker 1: fifty special tops Now card that sold like hotcakes. It
13:15
Speaker 1: actually like broke their systems in terms of people trying
13:18
Speaker 1: to get in the last twenty four hours to be
13:21
Speaker 1: able to buy this card. That is the way TOPS
13:23
Speaker 1: now set up that for each day, TOPS determines what
13:26
Speaker 1: like the biggest moments are of that day and then
13:29
Speaker 1: runs like a three card set of that. Usually the
13:32
Speaker 1: cards sell for seven ninety nine or eight ninety nine,
13:35
Speaker 1: and this one they, I mean, TOPS is certainly printing
13:40
Speaker 1: money with this in terms of it's an eleven ninety
13:42
Speaker 1: nine card that they ran. Like I said, it only
13:45
Speaker 1: runs for twenty four hours. Usually this one was a
13:47
Speaker 1: little bit more extended because people were stuffing the servers
13:51
Speaker 1: trying to get this at the last moment. Of course,
13:53
Speaker 1: the big ticket that everyone's trying to buy here is
13:56
Speaker 1: that there are autographed parallels of this card that will
14:00
Speaker 1: be coming out, and the one of one card they've
14:03
Speaker 1: already like contracted with Otani that will say first fifty
14:07
Speaker 1: to fifty season of all time and have a signature
14:09
Speaker 1: on it. So that card when it comes out, I
14:12
Speaker 1: can't imagine what it's going to go for because the
14:14
Speaker 1: baseball that was caught for the fifty to fifty it's
14:18
Speaker 1: already on a auction website for a cool half mill
14:22
Speaker 1: as the minimum bids. So when you're talking about this
14:24
Speaker 1: Top Snow card. I think it's going to be an
14:27
Speaker 1: iconic card, even though lots of people are going to
14:29
Speaker 1: have it, like I'm not going to relinquish my copy
14:32
Speaker 1: of it ever that I think it's a card that
14:35
Speaker 1: especially given that we know how many of them are
14:38
Speaker 1: out there, they were all sold in that twenty four
14:40
Speaker 1: hour window, it does create a little bit more scarcity
14:42
Speaker 1: than I would say. You're kind of normal base cards
14:45
Speaker 1: where you can go out and still find, you know,
14:49
Speaker 1: sealed packs of nineteen ninety tops and rip it if
14:52
Speaker 1: you want to get a Frank Thomas Rookie card. You know.
14:55
Speaker 1: So this Top Snow card set the record for the
14:59
Speaker 1: print run, which I think was gonna happen. Obviously, whenever
15:03
Speaker 1: this happened, it ended up selling six hundred and fifty
15:06
Speaker 1: three thousand, seven hundred and thirty seven copies. I know
15:10
Speaker 1: you and I both bought at least one. I bought one.
15:13
Speaker 1: How many did you end up buying?
15:14
Speaker 2: And I just I just went with the one like
15:16
Speaker 2: I would want. Theory like and I and I there's
15:19
Speaker 2: nothing to back this theory, let me be very clear,
15:21
Speaker 2: But I went with the theory that if you're working
15:23
Speaker 2: at Tops, it's a you know, one chance per like
15:28
Speaker 2: shipment to really get the auto versus a one chance
15:31
Speaker 2: per card. Like I'm sitting here going like they're not
15:34
Speaker 2: going there's like, oh, we're rolling the dice. This one
15:36
Speaker 2: bought person bought fifty cards, so they get fifty percent chance.
15:39
Speaker 2: It's literally going like going out the door that package
15:43
Speaker 2: and they're instided in there. And the same with the
15:44
Speaker 2: perils and things like that. So like it was, it's
15:47
Speaker 2: like it's literally buying a lottery ticket. Yes, And at
15:52
Speaker 2: the same time, to your point, like I think I
15:53
Speaker 2: felt the same way. First of all, free shipping from
15:55
Speaker 2: anything Tops is just like, uh, just a boon, Like
15:58
Speaker 2: I just can't pass that up. Uh, it is tough.
16:01
Speaker 1: To like once you especially like I paired it with
16:04
Speaker 1: the other tops now card that covered just the game
16:06
Speaker 1: in general, and once you did that, you were you
16:09
Speaker 1: were over the minimum for free shipping.
16:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so like but to your point, like, yeah,
16:14
Speaker 2: I'm gonna put this keep this card, Like I it's
16:17
Speaker 2: it is a like conic moment in history, and if
16:20
Speaker 2: I saw a lot of people being like why would
16:21
Speaker 2: you buy this card? Like it's manufacturers give them money
16:24
Speaker 2: and things like that it's like it's okay, it's cool,
16:26
Speaker 2: it's fun. It doesn't it doesn't matter, and so I
16:30
Speaker 2: think that that's what's uh so great about it. So
16:34
Speaker 2: and to your point, like there's a lottery ticket here,
16:36
Speaker 2: like what what like, what's what's your number? What do
16:39
Speaker 2: you think if you got that one of one? You
16:41
Speaker 2: know tops now auto Biotani, what's it worth?
16:48
Speaker 1: Oof?
16:50
Speaker 2: Uh?
16:50
Speaker 1: Like I don't even know. I mean it would be
16:56
Speaker 1: really hard to just like not want to hold it,
16:59
Speaker 1: because like I did, the part of part of it
17:01
Speaker 1: is like I don't think it goes anywhere in value
17:04
Speaker 1: in terms of like up or down or fluctuates, you
17:06
Speaker 1: know what I mean?
17:07
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, I think it's it is like the value it.
17:10
Speaker 1: Is exactly and it's like it's the card. It's kind
17:13
Speaker 1: of like the like when there's only like a few
17:16
Speaker 1: copies of the fifty two? Am I saying that it
17:19
Speaker 1: was a fifty one? It's fifty two, right? I should
17:22
Speaker 1: know this. I host a baseball card podcast the fifty
17:25
Speaker 1: two Mantle in a ten Like it's that level where
17:28
Speaker 1: like I don't think anybody's ever going to not pay
17:32
Speaker 1: top dollar for this o Tani one of one card
17:35
Speaker 1: because I think he's gonna go down as the greatest
17:38
Speaker 1: baseball player of all time, and you're talking about maybe
17:41
Speaker 1: his greatest card of all time. So I mean, I
17:45
Speaker 1: think it will move initially somewhere around like ten million.
17:49
Speaker 1: What do you think?
17:50
Speaker 2: Oh, I don't know. I I'm I don't know if
17:53
Speaker 2: it's it, if it's that far, but like it's like
17:58
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked to see it close to that.
18:00
Speaker 2: Like I feel like it's easily six figures, but I
18:04
Speaker 2: don't know if it goes to seven like it maybe
18:07
Speaker 2: maybe I'm wrong. It feels like it might be a
18:09
Speaker 2: little strong to get too high in the seven. So
18:12
Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, like, if I get it,
18:14
Speaker 2: I'm selling it immediately. I have no shame, and I
18:19
Speaker 2: will I will get to for the rest of my
18:21
Speaker 2: life be able to invest my sports card budget. I'm
18:25
Speaker 2: not sure I can plast that one off at home, though, Hey,
18:28
Speaker 2: I just hold I got a lottery tickets hold for
18:30
Speaker 2: you know, two million bucks. And because it was a card,
18:32
Speaker 2: I mean I can only buy cards with it. I
18:34
Speaker 2: don't think that one's gonna pass. Child's education might come first,
18:37
Speaker 2: but like, no big deal, Yeah, no big deal. Who
18:41
Speaker 2: needs a roof for your head. But it Yeah, the
18:45
Speaker 2: number is gonna be insane, and I fully expect it to.
18:49
Speaker 2: It's gonna surface, and it's gonna be it's gonna go
18:52
Speaker 2: on Golden or something like that. It's gonna be auctioned
18:54
Speaker 2: almost immediately. Because to your point, I think the value
18:58
Speaker 2: is never higher than it is right now, because over time,
19:02
Speaker 2: other accomplishments are going to happen and things are going
19:04
Speaker 2: to going to going to continue to go on. You know,
19:07
Speaker 2: hopefully they don't do a fifty five to fifty five
19:08
Speaker 2: first auto or something like that. But hey, when you
19:11
Speaker 2: make seven million from a top Snow card that you
19:14
Speaker 2: just randomly produced and all you have to do is
19:15
Speaker 2: convince Autani to sign a few cards like that is
19:19
Speaker 2: literally printing money.
19:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, and I don't know, I think the fifty
19:25
Speaker 1: to fifty card will still have maybe more importance to
19:29
Speaker 1: it because it also came with the game as well
19:31
Speaker 1: as like the round numbers are just much prettier than
19:34
Speaker 1: the fifty five to fifty five. But I mean, I
19:37
Speaker 1: don't know, like the ceiling on where this could go
19:41
Speaker 1: can be stretched forever, because there are not very many
19:45
Speaker 1: cards that really bring out like the big dogs. I
19:48
Speaker 1: would say in terms of like, you know, the Arizona
19:51
Speaker 1: Diamondbacks owner is like one of those big dogs, where
19:54
Speaker 1: like he has the PSA ten mantle, he has a
19:57
Speaker 1: Honus Wagner, Like after you get some of those those cards,
20:00
Speaker 1: like there are no other cards to get kind of
20:02
Speaker 1: except for this one. And so that's what I think
20:05
Speaker 1: will drive this market is like if you have, you know,
20:09
Speaker 1: some of these multimillionaires or even billionaires that have these
20:13
Speaker 1: huge collections that have every card, this is maybe like
20:17
Speaker 1: the first card that's come out in a real long
20:19
Speaker 1: while that you've really got to hone in on and
20:21
Speaker 1: try to bring in to really round that entire baseball
20:24
Speaker 1: collection out.
20:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think the other thing, I've got a
20:27
Speaker 2: lot of entertainment. I don't know if you if you've
20:29
Speaker 2: pigs in some of this, but there's been a Spike
20:31
Speaker 2: and Otani cards that are numb serial numbered out of fifty. Yes,
20:35
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty serial numbered cards are like going off
20:39
Speaker 2: the charts because it's like it's like the back doorway
20:42
Speaker 2: and into that collectible card. So I've seen a lot
20:46
Speaker 2: of stories of guys being like, oh, I sold the
20:48
Speaker 2: fifty out of fifty gold you know Otani last last
20:51
Speaker 2: month or something like that. Just did you know that?
20:54
Speaker 2: That's not something that crosses your mind at the time,
20:56
Speaker 2: But then it's like, oh, there's a collector base out
20:58
Speaker 2: there when that happened, Like fifty to fifty is absolutely
21:02
Speaker 2: being being sold, So it's it's quite the well the entertainment,
21:07
Speaker 2: that's for sure.
21:08
Speaker 1: I had to check mine to see if I had
21:10
Speaker 1: any that were like that, and the closest I have it's.
21:14
Speaker 2: Actually one you sold me.
21:15
Speaker 1: Do you remember this one?
21:16
Speaker 2: But Jesus is the bad news for me?
21:18
Speaker 1: The bowman's best one where he's like stealing. It's a
21:21
Speaker 1: one fifty out of one fifty, so it's close but
21:24
Speaker 1: not quite U and that I do have, I think
21:27
Speaker 1: two other of fifty ones, but that's that's the closest ie, guys,
21:31
Speaker 1: A one fifty out of one fifty that you generously
21:35
Speaker 1: sold me. That would have been really funny if it
21:37
Speaker 1: had been a fifty out of fifty.
21:38
Speaker 2: Oh, Jess. The thing is, I'm sure I sold it
21:41
Speaker 2: to you for pennies on the dollar, not not friend
21:46
Speaker 2: friend's discount, plus the inflation. After that you can play
21:49
Speaker 2: you're your five dollars card. It's not worth like one
21:51
Speaker 2: hundred bucks.
21:52
Speaker 1: To be fair, I think I paid like twenty five
21:55
Speaker 1: or thirty somewhere in that range.
21:56
Speaker 2: So okay, that's fair. Yeah I pulled over on me.
21:59
Speaker 2: That that bad.
22:00
Speaker 1: No, Okay, Well let's get into some of those news
22:03
Speaker 1: and notes I was alluding to. So we'll start off
22:06
Speaker 1: with the injuries first. Pretty I would say light slate
22:10
Speaker 1: compared to what we're used to around here, because it
22:12
Speaker 1: is the end of the season, Like at this point,
22:14
Speaker 1: if you've been playing through something, that's what a lot
22:17
Speaker 1: of these players are going onto the IL for, or
22:21
Speaker 1: you know, on top of it, like maybe you just
22:24
Speaker 1: don't fully hit the IL if you get something small
22:27
Speaker 1: to try to round out the season on top of it. Though,
22:30
Speaker 1: I do want to preface our second half of the
22:34
Speaker 1: show is going to be focusing on players that were
22:37
Speaker 1: disappointments for us in the Fantasy game for twenty twenty four.
22:40
Speaker 1: So part of that is actually a couple of these
22:42
Speaker 1: dudes we're going to talk about in the injury side
22:44
Speaker 1: are going to be in that boat when we get
22:46
Speaker 1: into the second half. Though the premise there will be
22:51
Speaker 1: Sand's injury and a couple of these guys had injuries
22:55
Speaker 1: that really hurt their values. But I think it kind
22:57
Speaker 1: of opens up that conversation as we're evaluating how things
23:01
Speaker 1: have gone in twenty twenty four and already facing forward
23:03
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty five, to see, you know, what happened,
23:07
Speaker 1: what kind of mistakes we made, and what can we
23:09
Speaker 1: learn from it going forward. So with that, we'll dive
23:12
Speaker 1: into our first injury, and it is short stop for
23:14
Speaker 1: the Toronto Blue Jays. Boba Schett is ending the season.
23:18
Speaker 1: He played i think one game after returning from his
23:21
Speaker 1: calf injury and was beamed during that game and is
23:26
Speaker 1: going onto the il with a fractured finger. I was
23:29
Speaker 1: reading that they were actually undergoing surgery to put a
23:33
Speaker 1: pin in it. So it's a pretty significant fracture because
23:36
Speaker 1: you don't hear about that too often for some of
23:38
Speaker 1: these kind of like fractures of hands and wrists that
23:42
Speaker 1: we've had this year, that they will have surgeries to
23:44
Speaker 1: like set the bones and stuff, but not often with
23:47
Speaker 1: a pin. So it's a pretty significant injury for Boba Schet.
23:51
Speaker 1: It has been a supremely disappointing year with a two
23:55
Speaker 1: twenty five, two seventy seven, three twenty two batty line,
23:59
Speaker 1: and it was just awful because you probably paid a
24:02
Speaker 1: second or third round price for him in the fantasy drafts.
24:05
Speaker 1: What do you think that this means for Bobaschett going forward?
24:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't. This is one of those
24:11
Speaker 2: weird ones, like if he had a great season, maybe
24:13
Speaker 2: it hurt his value, but he's been so dreadful I
24:16
Speaker 2: don't think it really changes anything. So this is a
24:19
Speaker 2: freak injury. It wasn't something that was lingering and could
24:22
Speaker 2: have had an impact to his performance. We then found
24:24
Speaker 2: out about and it's like, Okay, there's maybe room if
24:26
Speaker 2: he gets healthy over the off season. Like at the
24:28
Speaker 2: end of the day, you know, it isn't a finger injury,
24:31
Speaker 2: which is, you know, not good, but at the same time,
24:34
Speaker 2: not one that's really going to, you know, kind of
24:38
Speaker 2: hold him out. It's also not like it's a pointer
24:41
Speaker 2: finger or pink finger, as I believe is a middle finger,
24:44
Speaker 2: which will have some impact from like a throwing perspective
24:47
Speaker 2: as he comes back, but from a bat perspective, from
24:50
Speaker 2: a hitting perspective, it shouldn't have a whole lot of
24:52
Speaker 2: long term perspective. So I think it's kind of a
24:56
Speaker 2: neutral for Ashet here and doesn't really change my outlook,
25:01
Speaker 2: which is I don't plan to own him that next year,
25:05
Speaker 2: so he can't really go down from there. You know,
25:09
Speaker 2: maybe maybe it lowers some expectations and he feels the
25:12
Speaker 2: way that the world lifted. I don't know, but at
25:14
Speaker 2: the end of the day, yeah, it's it's unfortunate. Would
25:16
Speaker 2: have liked to see him get a little chance at
25:18
Speaker 2: the end of the season to kind of work things through.
25:20
Speaker 2: But you know, he's he's going to be there next
25:22
Speaker 2: year for the J's and I have a feeling that
25:26
Speaker 2: he's not, you know, glad they might shop depending on
25:29
Speaker 2: kind of where they just say, I don't see a
25:30
Speaker 2: sheet going anywhere getting a restart. You know, he's on
25:34
Speaker 2: a good, good deal and it's just not worth anything.
25:40
Speaker 2: They need him to rebuild some value and maybe train
25:41
Speaker 2: him to the deadline next year.
25:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it was that was a good setup
25:47
Speaker 1: though that in terms of like it doesn't change its
25:49
Speaker 1: value going for it because it is pretty low in
25:51
Speaker 1: terms of like you and I in the preseason, we're
25:54
Speaker 1: already kind of dogging where he was going in drafts
25:56
Speaker 1: because this the just profile has been fading and once
26:00
Speaker 1: those stone bases evaporated, he really lost a lot of
26:04
Speaker 1: that value for our fantasy game. But going to twenty five,
26:09
Speaker 1: how far does he maybe need to drop for you
26:11
Speaker 1: to start considering him, Because I think there's gonna be
26:14
Speaker 1: a lot of people that have been spurned by him
26:16
Speaker 1: over the years, and it's been a while since I've
26:19
Speaker 1: read a piece or listened to a podcast or talk
26:22
Speaker 1: to anybody and any of my fantasy leagues that holds
26:27
Speaker 1: Bobachett in a high regard anymore. So, like, how far
26:30
Speaker 1: do you think he tumbles down draft boards? And how
26:33
Speaker 1: far does he need to go for you to start
26:35
Speaker 1: maybe considering him as a back end? Am I option?
26:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I'm going to compare it to like
26:41
Speaker 2: Xander Bogarts this year. I think he's kind of the
26:43
Speaker 2: comparison i'd make, and maybe I give Xander a little
26:48
Speaker 2: little bump over over bow here. But it has to
26:51
Speaker 2: probably be the mid teens Deans rounds for me to
26:54
Speaker 2: start considering in that rat Like I'm not so post
26:59
Speaker 2: one fifty, Yeah, probably post one fifty. It's got to
27:02
Speaker 2: be right in that range where he's not the guy
27:06
Speaker 2: I'm relying on and he's more of a lottery ticket.
27:09
Speaker 2: So again it comes down to kind of did I
27:11
Speaker 2: take a lot of risk early? If so, definitely stand away.
27:14
Speaker 2: Do I have a pretty solid team, but I'm just
27:17
Speaker 2: maybe I'm needing some average or something like that. Then
27:20
Speaker 2: I might pop him a little bit earlier because he
27:23
Speaker 2: is one of those guys. Later from an average perspective,
27:26
Speaker 2: he's gonna be better than he was this year. Like
27:28
Speaker 2: he's absolutely gonna be better. Like don't don't get me wrong,
27:31
Speaker 2: It's like it's not like Boba Chet for the future
27:33
Speaker 2: is gonna be a ten home run, ten steel two
27:35
Speaker 2: thirty guy, Like he's gonna bounce back. He'll probably hit
27:38
Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty homers, should probably steal ten bases, and
27:41
Speaker 2: I'll hit probably hit two eighty. Like that's still cool.
27:44
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, yeah, but it's still good. But like, yeah,
27:49
Speaker 2: it's probably that mid teens. Y're right, probably one fifty
27:51
Speaker 2: if somewhere in there is where I'd be comfortable with
27:53
Speaker 2: taking bow.
27:54
Speaker 1: So okay, well, yeah, I think we can see where
27:57
Speaker 1: he starts ending up in drafts for next year when
28:00
Speaker 1: we start getting some more data, because I think he'll
28:02
Speaker 1: be a fascinating player because it might be one of
28:04
Speaker 1: the first times I finally get some Bobaschet shares, because like,
28:07
Speaker 1: if he does tumble that far, then I am and
28:09
Speaker 1: because like then you're talking about a twenty homer hitter
28:12
Speaker 1: that hits two eighty and plays every day. That's that
28:16
Speaker 1: works at m I or like the last shortstop or whatever.
28:20
Speaker 2: Yes, it's like that weird thing where all of a
28:22
Speaker 2: sudden he comes a value because he was so bad.
28:25
Speaker 1: Yes, okay. Next injury we have is to third baseman
28:29
Speaker 1: from the Boston Red Sox, Rafael Devers, who is done
28:33
Speaker 1: for the season. Now that the Red Sox are out
28:35
Speaker 1: of it pretty much. They're technically still in the wild card,
28:38
Speaker 1: but it's just not looking like it's going to happen.
28:41
Speaker 1: He's being placed on the il with a left shoulder
28:45
Speaker 1: injury that has been dogging him all summer, and you
28:49
Speaker 1: can see it in his numbers pretty starkly, where you know,
28:53
Speaker 1: through here's his monthly batting averages from April all the
28:57
Speaker 1: way through September. We have eighty two, two seventy six,
29:02
Speaker 1: two eighty seven, three sixty two. So that's the high
29:05
Speaker 1: mark in July August two sixteen to eighty eight in
29:09
Speaker 1: September in October that as somebody who owned Rafael Devers
29:14
Speaker 1: in a head to head league where he really uh
29:17
Speaker 1: screwed the pooch for me down the stretch. It was
29:19
Speaker 1: very obvious how awful he was. And this is a
29:22
Speaker 1: case where, uh, it's going to affect his like overall
29:26
Speaker 1: numbers for the season, but they ended up being just
29:30
Speaker 1: about what he did last year with a you know,
29:33
Speaker 1: if you locked off the fifteen games from last year,
29:35
Speaker 1: he played one hundred and fifty three games this year
29:37
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty eight last year thirty three homers,
29:40
Speaker 1: ninety runs, one hundred rbi. This year twenty eight homers,
29:44
Speaker 1: eighty seven runs, eighty three rbi. So that's pretty comparable
29:48
Speaker 1: last year hit two seventy one this year to seventy two.
29:50
Speaker 1: So if anything like it might have been like a
29:55
Speaker 1: late first round value Raphael Devers if he had kept
29:59
Speaker 1: it up going through what he had through July, that
30:02
Speaker 1: like he's only going to be twenty eight going into
30:06
Speaker 1: next year. That I'm kind of like a little giddy
30:10
Speaker 1: about this, as you can tell, because I think it's
30:11
Speaker 1: going to suppress his value a little bit because you
30:14
Speaker 1: kind of see the little bit of the step back
30:17
Speaker 1: and the power numbers and everything. But if people don't
30:19
Speaker 1: realize how long he was playing with that bad shoulder,
30:22
Speaker 1: they might not realize that he was really having a
30:26
Speaker 1: fantastic year before it hit him. Am I being a
30:29
Speaker 1: little overly optimistic here? Or what do you see for
30:32
Speaker 1: Raphael Devers going to twenty twenty five?
30:35
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean I can't really disagree because to your point,
30:38
Speaker 2: like if you look at most of his underlying metrics
30:41
Speaker 2: and things, that he did take a little bit step
30:43
Speaker 2: back in the strikeout department, and I want to I'll
30:49
Speaker 2: discount a little bit because I do think with a
30:50
Speaker 2: shoulder injury, like there's gonna be some struggles there, but overall,
30:55
Speaker 2: the power numbers were pretty much the same, Like the
30:58
Speaker 2: context rates were pretty much the same. And if he
31:02
Speaker 2: was doing that with kind of a bump shoulder, yeah,
31:05
Speaker 2: Like I'll take it like, Raffie Devers is the guy
31:07
Speaker 2: that you're locking him for two seventy five thirty homers
31:10
Speaker 2: one hundred RBIs kind of guy and he just he
31:13
Speaker 2: missed a handful of games, and if he hadn't missed
31:15
Speaker 2: those games, that's exactly what he would have delivered. And
31:18
Speaker 2: that's exactly who he's been for the last two three years.
31:21
Speaker 2: And so I Raffie Devers is still probably a top fifteen,
31:24
Speaker 2: top twenty bat for me. And I to your point,
31:28
Speaker 2: like I with third base being pretty rough, I like
31:32
Speaker 2: popping Raffie Devers early because I think it gives you
31:35
Speaker 2: a little bit. It's like back in the day when
31:36
Speaker 2: catchers were so rough. I feel like, you know, you
31:38
Speaker 2: got a little bump if you get the top catcher
31:40
Speaker 2: just because you you don't have to address it the
31:44
Speaker 2: rest of the way. So yeah, I'm right there with you.
31:46
Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, you're right spot on with with mister Devers.
31:50
Speaker 1: Yeah. And he's also one of those players that like,
31:53
Speaker 1: one of these years he's gonna hit fifty homers in
31:55
Speaker 1: Fenway and you just don't know when it is. And
31:58
Speaker 1: when that happens, that's when you in your league for sure. Okay,
32:03
Speaker 1: next injury we have is to your boy Cardinals starting
32:06
Speaker 1: pitcher Sonny Gray being placed on the injured list with
32:09
Speaker 1: flexer tendonitis, which will end his first year in Saint Louis.
32:14
Speaker 1: And I would say it was a mixed bag. So
32:17
Speaker 1: there are some things that he improved or kept going
32:21
Speaker 1: from his time in Minnesota and also just some things
32:24
Speaker 1: did take a little bit of a step back as
32:26
Speaker 1: he did turn thirty four, turns thirty five in November,
32:32
Speaker 1: so he is getting pretty up there in terms of
32:35
Speaker 1: veteran status, but ends the year with thirteen wins over
32:38
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty six and a third innings. The
32:41
Speaker 1: K nine took a jump this year, which was a
32:43
Speaker 1: big nice boost in his overall value was hovering around
32:47
Speaker 1: eight point nine last year, went up to ten point
32:51
Speaker 1: nine eleven this year. But the era is where there
32:54
Speaker 1: was some regression, partly because the ground ball rate backed
32:58
Speaker 1: up to where it was a career worse forty two
33:01
Speaker 1: point three percent ground ball rate. That just led to
33:04
Speaker 1: more homers where it looked like he was back in
33:07
Speaker 1: Cincinnati or the Bronx again, and that obviously impacted his era.
33:12
Speaker 1: So what do you see this profile for Sonny Gray
33:16
Speaker 1: And how much do you think this injury was maybe
33:18
Speaker 1: hurting him down the stretch because there were rumors throughout
33:22
Speaker 1: I would say, starting maybe in like June July, that
33:25
Speaker 1: he was battling some sort of arm fatigue in arm issues.
33:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think that he was maybe battling
33:32
Speaker 2: a little it's kind of it's you know, nobody's can
33:35
Speaker 2: come out and say it, but you kind of read
33:36
Speaker 2: the tone of injury reports with Gray and at the
33:39
Speaker 2: end of the day it was kind of like a
33:41
Speaker 2: r we're packing the end for the season. No point
33:44
Speaker 2: in hurting our best arm and risking anything. And so
33:47
Speaker 2: I don't really look at this as an injury. I
33:49
Speaker 2: look at it is a injury reported to be able
33:52
Speaker 2: to shout him down for the rest of the season
33:53
Speaker 2: and give a guys like Grievy or Libertore or something
33:56
Speaker 2: like that a chance to get a little bit more
33:59
Speaker 2: you know, arm time, uh Blante to see if you know,
34:02
Speaker 2: somehow he's been a the ace next year. I don't know,
34:06
Speaker 2: but you know, I have to get on my my
34:08
Speaker 2: shoapbox for Sonny Gray. Here, this is actually one of
34:11
Speaker 2: his best seasons. Usually he took a step back.
34:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, he took a start there something here and there.
34:17
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, like yeah, his ERI was like the only
34:20
Speaker 2: thing his best walk rate, Kate, uh, you know, walk
34:24
Speaker 2: percentage of his career, his second best strikeout percent percentage
34:28
Speaker 2: of his career. And then you start to look at
34:31
Speaker 2: the luck metrics is he he had? He dropped about
34:34
Speaker 2: ten points in the left on base percentage, so he
34:37
Speaker 2: was incredibly unlucky there. He did step back in the
34:40
Speaker 2: ground balls, which has hurt him a little bit, but
34:42
Speaker 2: his home run for fly ball rate like tripled, and
34:45
Speaker 2: so he saw those home runs flying out, So like
34:48
Speaker 2: he was unlucky, unlucky, unlucky and a number of aspects,
34:51
Speaker 2: and the velocity was kind of where need to be
34:53
Speaker 2: all those other things, and so if you look at
34:55
Speaker 2: you know, like your ex FIP, his ex FIP was
34:58
Speaker 2: two point eight two, his FIP was three point twelve.
35:01
Speaker 2: That they were fantastic. They love the profile. So I
35:05
Speaker 2: am buying Sonny Gray again for next year. I'm gonna
35:08
Speaker 2: keep doing it, and you're gonna keep giving to me
35:11
Speaker 2: a discount. And I don't know what the price is
35:14
Speaker 2: gonna be next year, but I guarantee whatever it is,
35:16
Speaker 2: I will take it for doubles.
35:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not surprised because yeah, I do agree that,
35:23
Speaker 1: like there's a lot of things that looked better, and
35:26
Speaker 1: I mean the ground ball rate I think is maybe
35:28
Speaker 1: like their first sign of where things can start going awry.
35:32
Speaker 1: Part of it is like he might have changed his
35:35
Speaker 1: profile of how to pitch given that Saint Louis and
35:39
Speaker 1: Bush Stadium there does shade pitcher friendly as well as
35:42
Speaker 1: obviously a new team, a little bit of a new strategy,
35:45
Speaker 1: so on and so forth. But I mean, we've seen
35:48
Speaker 1: it a little bit with Luis Castillo is. Once that
35:50
Speaker 1: ground ball rate does start degrading a little bit, that's
35:54
Speaker 1: one of the first kind of signs of where it
35:56
Speaker 1: can start going ry. But he improved everywhere else that
35:59
Speaker 1: I totally. I mean, I think you can go into
36:01
Speaker 1: drafts next year easily buy him as a three, and
36:05
Speaker 1: he can be a back end one, solid number two
36:08
Speaker 1: for your fancy staff.
36:09
Speaker 2: I was gonna always say if you don't say one,
36:11
Speaker 2: I was gonna come after you. But I think we're good.
36:15
Speaker 1: You're okay with me sticking back end one.
36:17
Speaker 2: I was okay, but was easy, he said three. Just
36:20
Speaker 2: hurt a little bit. I got a little gee.
36:23
Speaker 1: Next injury we have is to the very very old
36:28
Speaker 1: Max Scherzer, who is forty will be I guess he
36:31
Speaker 1: doesn't turn forty one until next year, so not until July.
36:34
Speaker 1: But he is shut down with a hammy injury after
36:37
Speaker 1: throwing just forty three and a third innings this year
36:41
Speaker 1: with Texas coming off of back surgery, and honestly, it
36:45
Speaker 1: was a pretty solid like forty three and a third innings.
36:48
Speaker 1: It wasn't old Max Schuerzer, but you're talking about a
36:52
Speaker 1: league average, if not slightly better. I would say maybe
36:56
Speaker 1: on the K nine. I don't know what average K
36:58
Speaker 1: nine is, so that's why I'm saying, but it seems
37:00
Speaker 1: all right at eight point three three ninety five era
37:04
Speaker 1: and he, I mean, the control was good, the velocity
37:08
Speaker 1: took a little bit of a step back, as you
37:10
Speaker 1: would expect from a back surgery, but overall he was
37:15
Speaker 1: still a bulldog out there, and it sounds like he's
37:18
Speaker 1: going to be coming back to pitch again next year.
37:20
Speaker 1: He should. I mean, he's going to be an free
37:24
Speaker 1: agent in the offseason, so we'll see where he ends
37:26
Speaker 1: up landing. But I think this is another guy where
37:30
Speaker 1: I'm intrigued by him going into next year, coming another
37:33
Speaker 1: year after that back surgery and when he was on
37:37
Speaker 1: the mound, like if he can be league average while
37:40
Speaker 1: working his way back from a back injury like that,
37:43
Speaker 1: Just knowing who Max Schurcher is, I'm interested in him
37:47
Speaker 1: going into twenty twenty five. What do you think?
37:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of the same boat. I have to say,
37:53
Speaker 2: I'm a little disappointed in you because of one of
37:56
Speaker 2: our home leagues where you may have nominated Max sures
37:59
Speaker 2: Or a day before I could bid on him, because
38:02
Speaker 2: I was trying to cut him and get my money back,
38:04
Speaker 2: and you knew exactly what you're doing, and I was
38:07
Speaker 2: not happy about it because I wanted a five dollars
38:10
Speaker 2: make sure next year.
38:11
Speaker 1: That was one of my factors of starting that auction
38:14
Speaker 1: when I did so good payback for Jacob bomb Easter,
38:19
Speaker 1: who you still off from underneath me.
38:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, it comes goes around, comes around, I guess,
38:22
Speaker 2: but but yeah, I'm with you. He's he's not gonna
38:25
Speaker 2: be vented Sureser, and we shouldn't expect. But Suresh's one
38:29
Speaker 2: of the smartest guys out there from a pitching perspective,
38:31
Speaker 2: and you know, there's just something about him from a
38:35
Speaker 2: bulldog perspective that I don't see a tailoff, and if
38:39
Speaker 2: he sees a tailoff, he's done. Like I think he's
38:41
Speaker 2: one of those guys that has no pride in like
38:43
Speaker 2: trying to extend the career or things like that. If
38:45
Speaker 2: he doesn't think he's at one hundred percent he's called
38:48
Speaker 2: him day and he's going he's going away, And so
38:51
Speaker 2: I do think that, you know, he did regress from
38:54
Speaker 2: a strikeout right this year, but like he had forty
38:56
Speaker 2: three innings and he had forty k's like or or
39:00
Speaker 2: talking for pretty small samples here, So he could have
39:02
Speaker 2: had a few bad games from a strikeout perspective versus
39:06
Speaker 2: a few good ones, and we're be talking completely different.
39:09
Speaker 2: So I'm right there with you. I'm buying Max Sureser
39:13
Speaker 2: next year and excited about it because I think the
39:16
Speaker 2: price is gonna be pretty low. I think people are
39:18
Speaker 2: gonna be a little hesitant on suzers, the Verlanders and
39:22
Speaker 2: guys like that, because I think a lot of people
39:24
Speaker 2: try to invest in them this year and it just
39:26
Speaker 2: didn't pay off. But I think the price is gonna
39:29
Speaker 2: be pretty low going to next year. I think people
39:31
Speaker 2: are gonna let you get after a sures Or as
39:33
Speaker 2: a fifth starter. And yeah, I think the big thing
39:38
Speaker 2: is he solid. He's gonna be solid. He's not gonna
39:39
Speaker 2: be attle, Max Sureser, but you'res gonna be flash as
39:41
Speaker 2: a brilliance separate.
39:42
Speaker 1: Once in a while. Yeah, Yeah, I totally agree. And
39:44
Speaker 1: I think wherever he signs it's gonna be for contender,
39:47
Speaker 1: so those wins should come to you as well. So
39:50
Speaker 1: I think it's also a big factor that he's somebody
39:53
Speaker 1: that I think cares about wins and will grind through
39:55
Speaker 1: five or six intings where you where lots of starting
39:58
Speaker 1: pitchers out there, it's something you can't count on anymore.
40:01
Speaker 1: So i'd give extra points and kudos to him for that. Okay,
40:06
Speaker 1: let's move into some transactions and we'll go to one
40:09
Speaker 1: of Sure, there's former homes in Washington, as the Nationals
40:15
Speaker 1: demoted CJ. Abrams this week after he got busted or
40:19
Speaker 1: called out for an all night casino bender in my town,
40:23
Speaker 1: Chicago and played a day game at Regally Feel at
40:26
Speaker 1: one pm the next day, and currently he's just kind
40:32
Speaker 1: of hanging out in the complex down in Florida as
40:35
Speaker 1: he finishes the season, as the Washington Nationals have punished
40:38
Speaker 1: him for this all night bender and really you know,
40:42
Speaker 1: put their foot down in terms of enforcing the curfew. Overall,
40:46
Speaker 1: I do think that this probably wasn't the first time
40:49
Speaker 1: he's done this for something public like this to happen,
40:52
Speaker 1: because when you consider like how it makes the organization
40:56
Speaker 1: look overall that, Like, I'm sure there were other conversations
41:00
Speaker 1: about previous actions, and so this is a pretty drastic
41:04
Speaker 1: measure I think overall from the Nationals. And it was
41:09
Speaker 1: also like really confusing when it came out because people
41:11
Speaker 1: weren't totally sure what was going on. He had been
41:14
Speaker 1: bad in the second half, but not like send him
41:17
Speaker 1: to Triple A bad plus like I thought maybe there
41:20
Speaker 1: was like a galaxy brain thing going on where the
41:22
Speaker 1: Nationals were trying to win like the Triple A championship
41:25
Speaker 1: and it sent them down. But that their Rochester squad
41:28
Speaker 1: isn't even in the playoffs. So what do you do
41:31
Speaker 1: with a player like CJ. Abrams here who has broken
41:34
Speaker 1: out this year, has really taken that next step forward
41:37
Speaker 1: and honestly was probably going to be considered for a
41:40
Speaker 1: second round pick going into fantasy drafts next year. Do
41:44
Speaker 1: you think he still holds that value because of this situation?
41:49
Speaker 1: And like, how do you handle any situations like this
41:53
Speaker 1: overall when you're looking at fantasy players.
41:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's two ways you can look at
41:57
Speaker 2: this one, and it's was purely from like emotional maturity standpoint,
42:01
Speaker 2: which is CJ. Abrams is not the brightest guy. For
42:05
Speaker 2: staying out to seven am gambling, and you'll be like, man,
42:11
Speaker 2: if that's the way he treats his career, man, I
42:14
Speaker 2: can't think that he's going to continue to work hard
42:16
Speaker 2: and improve. Or you can think the other side of
42:19
Speaker 2: it is he's playing like this and he's staying out
42:21
Speaker 2: till seven am at the casino. Man, what happens when
42:24
Speaker 2: he actually gets a wake up call? So I you know,
42:26
Speaker 2: I think I'm just kind of ignoring it. I'm giving
42:28
Speaker 2: him like the standard. He's still he's still young, he's
42:31
Speaker 2: still growing. I think he's gonna get better. And so
42:34
Speaker 2: I think, you know, Abrams is you know, he's gonna
42:37
Speaker 2: be a two fifty hitter. I wouldn't be surprised to
42:40
Speaker 2: see him get you know, maybe twenty five forty at
42:43
Speaker 2: some point at his absolute peak. And I think there's
42:47
Speaker 2: still some room to grow, and hopefully as he gets
42:50
Speaker 2: a little more protection in that lineup with guys like
42:52
Speaker 2: James would, there's still some more growth to come. So
42:56
Speaker 2: I'm still excited about Abrams. I'm I'm not taking him
42:59
Speaker 2: in the top like maybe two three rounds, but you
43:01
Speaker 2: gus a four or five, I think you start to
43:03
Speaker 2: really consider a guy like Abrams, just because of the
43:06
Speaker 2: way he can fill the stat sheet, and he one
43:10
Speaker 2: of these years he's gonna he's already kind of broken out,
43:12
Speaker 2: but I think he's gonna do even even more. Only
43:15
Speaker 2: thing that was a little concerning with this year with
43:17
Speaker 2: his stat line was he got caught stealing the heck
43:19
Speaker 2: of a lot more than he did the last year.
43:22
Speaker 2: He stole thirty one but got cut twelve times versus
43:25
Speaker 2: forty seven and four the previous year. And I don't
43:29
Speaker 2: I don't put a lot of weight into that. I
43:30
Speaker 2: think it's one of those that there was nothing else
43:32
Speaker 2: going with the Nationals, So everybody's every time Abram's got on,
43:35
Speaker 2: they're like, well he's running, So yeah, I'm I'm kind
43:39
Speaker 2: of ignoring this overall and just moving on.
43:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I can also tell you what the gratuitous
43:47
Speaker 1: steals there. It was not just him, like it's uh,
43:52
Speaker 1: Layne Thomas was caught stealing twelve times in forty attempts.
43:58
Speaker 1: Jacb Yong is only thirty two, James wood is fourteen
44:02
Speaker 1: of twenty two. That everyone's got the green light in Washington,
44:05
Speaker 1: So it's not like.
44:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, literally like I think I think that part of
44:08
Speaker 2: the actually goes to why is getting thrown out to
44:10
Speaker 2: a degree, is that like everybody's getting on everybody's runnings,
44:14
Speaker 2: like any chance to chance, like they they know that
44:18
Speaker 2: you're going, and there's just gunna down there every chance
44:21
Speaker 2: they gets. So you're right, I do recalls have the
44:23
Speaker 2: same discussion about Lane Thomas uh with his trade to Cleveland,
44:27
Speaker 2: says like, don't count on those steals because there's just
44:29
Speaker 2: a there's a very green light in Washington exactly. Okay.
44:34
Speaker 1: The next transaction we have is on the flip side,
44:38
Speaker 1: somebody making a debut and it is in the last
44:40
Speaker 1: week because the Detroit Tigers hearing this thing baby, and
44:43
Speaker 1: they have called up what is I think the best
44:46
Speaker 1: pitching prospect down in the minors, and I think lots
44:49
Speaker 1: of other people do too. It is Jackson job is
44:53
Speaker 1: debuting to be in the bullpen down the stretch. Unfortunately,
44:56
Speaker 1: they cut our boys, Shelby Miller to be able to
44:58
Speaker 1: make room for Jackson. So Shelby will still get a
45:02
Speaker 1: ring from this inevitable Detroit Tigers World Series run, but
45:07
Speaker 1: he won't be a part of the celebrations, you know,
45:09
Speaker 1: when that happens in a month or so. But Jackson
45:12
Speaker 1: Job has been working his way back from back issues
45:15
Speaker 1: this year and has battles some shoulder issues, and he's
45:19
Speaker 1: also just kind of got Like if you showed anybody
45:23
Speaker 1: who didn't kind of know what the scouts have said
45:26
Speaker 1: about him, if you showed them, I think his stat profile,
45:31
Speaker 1: I would be scared, just because in terms of like
45:35
Speaker 1: the volume is not there. He's been taking a step
45:38
Speaker 1: back in terms of strikeouts. Part of is as he's
45:40
Speaker 1: been working his way up the ladder in twenty twenty four.
45:43
Speaker 1: But all of the reports are that the stuff is
45:46
Speaker 1: absolutely filthy, great fastball, one of the best sliders maybe
45:50
Speaker 1: like in the game, possibly like going forward. That it's
45:54
Speaker 1: just a nasty yacker, and so it should be I
45:58
Speaker 1: think a great time to see which Saxon Job can do.
46:00
Speaker 1: Reminds me a little bit of like when k Rod
46:03
Speaker 1: came up with the Angels during their World Series run.
46:07
Speaker 1: But Jackson Job will be starting next year, So what
46:11
Speaker 1: are you looking for out of Job during this playoff
46:13
Speaker 1: run that can kind of maybe give you hope to
46:16
Speaker 1: buy into him for twenty twenty five.
46:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I was gonna use kind of the David
46:20
Speaker 2: Price comp that's about, you know, come up the playoffs
46:23
Speaker 2: and things. You know, what I'm looking for him is
46:26
Speaker 2: to see is the control there like that? That to
46:29
Speaker 2: me is the big big question with job. I don't
46:32
Speaker 2: think there's any question of the stuff, but I do
46:35
Speaker 2: question if he knows where it's going at all times,
46:38
Speaker 2: and so that's a little bit concerning for me. I
46:41
Speaker 2: also a little concerned with the ground balls that he
46:44
Speaker 2: does not seem to soon induce. But he's also been
46:47
Speaker 2: young for every level he's played at. He's again, I
46:50
Speaker 2: think he'd been tinkering trying to figure out what he
46:53
Speaker 2: can do. He's kind of been, you know, cat and
46:55
Speaker 2: mouse game. Dost agree with the hitters in the minors,
46:57
Speaker 2: So I really want to see, like as he buckles
47:01
Speaker 2: down against the top end competition, he's not testing things
47:04
Speaker 2: about like does the control come, does the velocity stick?
47:09
Speaker 2: Dewey pitch a little bit more to that contact and
47:12
Speaker 2: try to get the ball on the ground. I'm just
47:13
Speaker 2: looking for a little bit of all of those to
47:17
Speaker 2: play together and see that like he could be a
47:19
Speaker 2: more complete pitcher. So I'm I'm tentatively excited about Jackson Joe.
47:26
Speaker 2: I think my biggest concern with him is if he
47:28
Speaker 2: goes and looks really good at the rest of the season,
47:32
Speaker 2: he's you know, he's gonna get a rotation spot in
47:34
Speaker 2: the spring. But man, he doesn't have a lot of
47:36
Speaker 2: innings on that arm, and so it is going to
47:38
Speaker 2: be really, really tough, you know, for him to do
47:41
Speaker 2: much more than one hundred, one hundred and twenty five
47:42
Speaker 2: innings next year for the Tigers, especially if he's pitching
47:47
Speaker 2: in the playoffs this year. So we'll watch, we'll see,
47:51
Speaker 2: hoping that all the scouting reports are correct, because you're right,
47:55
Speaker 2: the line is a little concerning, but it's the eye
47:58
Speaker 2: test has definitely passed by Jackson.
48:00
Speaker 1: Job, Yeah, definitely. Okay, Well, we've got a couple of
48:04
Speaker 1: sendoffs here to wrap up our transactions, and the first
48:06
Speaker 1: one is a sendoff for the fiery David Bell has
48:10
Speaker 1: been let go in Cincinnati as really like it's kind
48:15
Speaker 1: of it's never I think a great sign when a
48:19
Speaker 1: manager gets fired with this much lame duck time, unless
48:23
Speaker 1: they are trying to try out the bench coast that
48:26
Speaker 1: has taken over for him to see if like that's
48:29
Speaker 1: who they want to hire for next year. Although I
48:32
Speaker 1: have to think that Skip Shoemaker's got to be like
48:34
Speaker 1: the top minds Cincinnati Reads.
48:36
Speaker 2: I think for a number of teams, Like, yeah, I
48:39
Speaker 2: have a feeling Skip's gonna be pretty bopular.
48:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And so David Bell wraps up his time
48:45
Speaker 1: there with a pretty rough four h nine and four
48:48
Speaker 1: to fifty six record. And I didn't know this, but
48:51
Speaker 1: the Reds haven't won a playoff round since nineteen ninety five.
48:55
Speaker 1: The NLDS pack with like Barry Larkin and Hal Morris
49:00
Speaker 1: and just all sorts of like throwback guys on that team.
49:04
Speaker 1: Kevin Mitchell might have been on that team. That might
49:06
Speaker 1: have also been a team that didn't have sleeves. So yeah, good, good,
49:11
Speaker 1: good times of remember some guys back in the mid
49:13
Speaker 1: nineties Cincinnati Reds. But this is going to be I
49:18
Speaker 1: think a tumultuous offseason for the Cincinnati Reds as this
49:21
Speaker 1: is kind of portending. Although on top of it all,
49:25
Speaker 1: like they could have done some of this stuff last
49:28
Speaker 1: year and didn't make the moves to really like push
49:30
Speaker 1: the chips in to build around some of the pieces
49:33
Speaker 1: they have there with Elie de la Cruz and I mean,
49:36
Speaker 1: Matt McLean will be coming back next year. Spencer Steer
49:40
Speaker 1: is a great piece Hunter Green, you know, rounds out
49:43
Speaker 1: that pitching staff, and you've got young pitchers coming through.
49:46
Speaker 1: Nic Lodolo, I don't I know, you love him, but
49:48
Speaker 1: I don't think he's ever going to be healthy. But
49:50
Speaker 1: you've got louder there now. So this is a team
49:53
Speaker 1: on the up and up. I guess my question here
49:57
Speaker 1: for you is what are you doing with maybe some
50:00
Speaker 1: of your shares of younger Reds players, Because, like it
50:05
Speaker 1: has been, it's a good home park, but without like
50:09
Speaker 1: I think, having those extra pieces coming through, I don't
50:13
Speaker 1: know if they're ever gonna really hit their peaks of
50:16
Speaker 1: maybe what you're expecting from them. So do you think
50:18
Speaker 1: that they could maybe do that with a new manager
50:20
Speaker 1: that David Bell might have been holding them back?
50:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if Bell was holding them back,
50:25
Speaker 2: but there definitely seems to be some tension with the
50:27
Speaker 2: front office there. You know, very interesting that he signed
50:31
Speaker 2: a contract last year or four of the twenty fourth
50:34
Speaker 2: through twenty six seasons and then they let them go here,
50:37
Speaker 2: which in a year that wasn't that bad. Like they
50:40
Speaker 2: had a lot of injury issues, They had ped suspensions
50:43
Speaker 2: for novel like Marte, Like there was a lot of concern.
50:46
Speaker 2: So I'm looking at a lot of these hitters and going like,
50:48
Speaker 2: there's still so much talent on the offensive side. They
50:51
Speaker 2: just did have some injuries this year they had to
50:53
Speaker 2: deal with that. If all that talent kind of comes
50:55
Speaker 2: together and hits like, there's gonna be a lot of
50:58
Speaker 2: excitement in Cincinnati. Not probably buying a lot on the
51:01
Speaker 2: pitching side. Get to your point, like, I do love
51:03
Speaker 2: a Nicolodolo, but like the injuries, many they're adding up
51:07
Speaker 2: there for sure, and so I'm probably avoiding almost any
51:12
Speaker 2: Reds picture, including Louder at this point. I just I'm
51:15
Speaker 2: just not investing there with that ballpark and the way
51:17
Speaker 2: that the development i'll call it development staff that doesn't
51:22
Speaker 2: seem to quite develop what needs to be done there.
51:26
Speaker 2: But I'm still I'm still in for the pictures. I'm
51:28
Speaker 2: or sorry the hitters, I'm still in for them. I
51:30
Speaker 2: still think there's a lot of potential there. Another year
51:33
Speaker 2: or two of them not putting together, then yeah, I
51:35
Speaker 2: think you're right, But I think there's gonna be over
51:38
Speaker 2: the next year or two, all of a sudden there's
51:40
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of runs scored in Cincinnati. And
51:44
Speaker 2: if they can just you know, push the chips in slightly.
51:48
Speaker 2: There's a lot to be excited about.
51:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that that's a great take. So
51:52
Speaker 1: we'll see kind of who they end up hiring long
51:55
Speaker 1: term and what they might be able to do going
51:59
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five. Right next sendoff we have is
52:02
Speaker 1: a retirement as Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackman has announced
52:07
Speaker 1: that this last game of or last set of games
52:11
Speaker 1: coming up, are his last as the Rockies and their
52:15
Speaker 1: season in Coors Field against the Dodgers. So, like I said,
52:19
Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why I'm buying any shares
52:22
Speaker 1: of a O Tani fifty five, fifty five or those
52:25
Speaker 1: fifty five to fifty five cards out there. Certainly go
52:29
Speaker 1: find them. But it wraps up a fourteen year career
52:32
Speaker 1: for Charlie Blackman, over which he hit two ninety three,
52:35
Speaker 1: three fifty three, four seventy nine with two hundred and
52:38
Speaker 1: twenty six homers, one hundred and forty eight stolen bases,
52:42
Speaker 1: and was just a stalwart out there in the Colorado
52:46
Speaker 1: outfield especially. I'll never really forget like it that twenty
52:50
Speaker 1: seventeen season. This is actually another great use of the
52:53
Speaker 1: historical Fantasy Player Raider that we have on RAS BOLD
52:56
Speaker 1: is to see like what some of the old seasons did,
53:00
Speaker 1: because Charlie Blackman won plenty of leagues out there. In
53:03
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, when he put up forty five dollars of
53:06
Speaker 1: value in a standard twelfteen league after hitting thirty seven homers,
53:11
Speaker 1: stole fourteen bases, one hundred and thirty seven runs for
53:14
Speaker 1: the Colorado Rockies, and a three thirty four average. It
53:17
Speaker 1: was fantastic that like got MVP votes and was just
53:23
Speaker 1: just a stud. It was crazy seeing him go off
53:26
Speaker 1: like that, considering he's always been known for the contact
53:29
Speaker 1: and that batting average. Seeing those thirty seven homers was
53:33
Speaker 1: astounding that year. So I wanted to give you some
53:36
Speaker 1: space to say your piece about Charlie Blackman, because I
53:40
Speaker 1: know you've used him over the years, and I'm trying
53:42
Speaker 1: to remember, did you leverage that twenty seventeen year to
53:46
Speaker 1: beat us in that league that one year?
53:48
Speaker 2: I think I did. You have to go back to look,
53:50
Speaker 2: but there's a very high likelihood because there was a
53:52
Speaker 2: Charlie Blackman had the like four or five year period
53:55
Speaker 2: where he was just Fantasy gold and at the same time.
53:59
Speaker 2: There's just something about Charlie Blackman that doesn't like scream
54:02
Speaker 2: like I want to invest you because he's not like
54:05
Speaker 2: overly outgoing players, kind of like the might trout E
54:09
Speaker 2: factor for everybody's like, well, I wish he would be
54:10
Speaker 2: a little more outgoing or vocal like Charlie Blackman just
54:13
Speaker 2: went to work as a lumberjack with that beard and
54:17
Speaker 2: it was it was just so much fun to watch,
54:19
Speaker 2: and I think, uh, he did get the appreciation he deserved.
54:23
Speaker 2: And you know, he had a just fantastic overall career
54:28
Speaker 2: played for Colorado the entire time. I have a little
54:31
Speaker 2: bit of love affair of a guy that can play
54:32
Speaker 2: for one team is higher career and that's just exciting
54:36
Speaker 2: to see for Charlie Blackman, So wishing him all the
54:40
Speaker 2: best in retirement here absolutely deserves it. Kind of one
54:44
Speaker 2: of those guys that I would not be shocked to
54:45
Speaker 2: see back as like a hitting coach or a special
54:48
Speaker 2: assistant or something like that in the in the future
54:51
Speaker 2: here in that rocky system, Lord knows, they probably could
54:54
Speaker 2: use it. So I'm really excited to wish Blackman ad
55:02
Speaker 2: for the season and reminisce about some of the old
55:04
Speaker 2: days of some of these big, big seasons he had,
55:08
Speaker 2: so gave you enough time there to look up. Did
55:11
Speaker 2: I use Charlie Blackman to beat you back in the day.
55:14
Speaker 2: I feel like I did.
55:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, in our main CBS league. No, you actually got
55:19
Speaker 1: fifth that year. He was on your roster at the
55:21
Speaker 1: end of the year. I don't know if that's because
55:23
Speaker 1: you maneuvered to get him at the at the deadline
55:27
Speaker 1: for keeper purposes because he was only fifteen dollars, or
55:31
Speaker 1: if you actually did roster him all year and you
55:34
Speaker 1: know it just didn't quite work out, but you did
55:36
Speaker 1: have him in that twenty seventeen year.
55:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, that sounds about right. There's a little bit of
55:41
Speaker 2: love fast for Charlie Blackman, so I'll fully own that.
55:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, to go with your one dollar trade turner, your
55:48
Speaker 1: one dollar injured Benin tendee that I think you probably kept.
55:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, things went wrong there fast.
55:57
Speaker 1: Yes. Okay, Well that's going to wrap us up here
56:00
Speaker 1: for the first half. We are going to take a
56:02
Speaker 1: small break and then be back to discuss some of
56:05
Speaker 1: those twenty twenty four fantasy disappointments. So stick around, all right,
56:25
Speaker 1: Welcome back, everybody. We are going to get into discussion
56:28
Speaker 1: of fantasy disappointments from twenty twenty four. So the way
56:32
Speaker 1: that we're going to be analyzing this is going back
56:34
Speaker 1: in time. Thankfully, not only does our website over at
56:38
Speaker 1: Rasbull have that historical player rader that I was talking
56:41
Speaker 1: about in the first half, but you can also go
56:43
Speaker 1: back and see what the actual, like suggested auction dollars
56:49
Speaker 1: were from the beginning of the year. So you can
56:50
Speaker 1: do this kind of look back analysis to see what
56:54
Speaker 1: was happening before the year and what you should have
56:57
Speaker 1: been doing in auctions in draft, and then coming back
57:01
Speaker 1: and using the player raider at the end of the year.
57:04
Speaker 1: Now that we've only got you know, four or five
57:06
Speaker 1: games left a person, that we can do a lot
57:09
Speaker 1: of analysis on what went wrong for these players. So
57:12
Speaker 1: we are going to focus on players that didn't sustain
57:16
Speaker 1: injuries that really could kind of mire the overall production.
57:20
Speaker 1: That that is why in the first half we're talking
57:22
Speaker 1: about players like Boba Schett and Raphael Devers wouldn't be
57:25
Speaker 1: considered in this type of analysis because you could see
57:28
Speaker 1: where the injuries really affected their overall seasons. So what
57:33
Speaker 1: we're going to do is try to focus on players
57:35
Speaker 1: that have stayed healthy. I can already say that with
57:39
Speaker 1: a caveat the first guys a little bit of an
57:42
Speaker 1: asterisk next to him, But once we get into discussing him,
57:44
Speaker 1: I think you'll see why. But brew, what do you
57:48
Speaker 1: do for players like this kind of in general that
57:51
Speaker 1: have become overall like huge disappointments. Are you looking into
57:55
Speaker 1: their profiles to see like if anything specific happen? You
57:59
Speaker 1: trying to dig through through news reports to find injuries.
58:02
Speaker 1: You're trying to what are you doing to try to
58:04
Speaker 1: either update your priors or try to convince yourself that
58:07
Speaker 1: your prior is on these players were correct and that
58:10
Speaker 1: they'll bounce back.
58:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think you probably hit the two
58:14
Speaker 2: things on the head there, which is, first of all,
58:17
Speaker 2: was their injury? Were they hurt? Were they banged up?
58:20
Speaker 2: Try to snuff that out a little bit because a
58:23
Speaker 2: lot of times what you see with a guy get's
58:24
Speaker 2: like almost almost a full season is that just got
58:26
Speaker 2: a little banged up, had a little little tough go
58:29
Speaker 2: of it, and they just couldn't quite get something, whether
58:31
Speaker 2: it's the power, whether it was some of the legs
58:33
Speaker 2: they didn't want to run something like that. Once you
58:36
Speaker 2: kind of get past that. You know, if you see
58:38
Speaker 2: an injury and you just want to discount the stats
58:40
Speaker 2: ninety eight percent something like that, I think that's absolutely fair.
58:44
Speaker 2: And then from there, I'm just kind of looking underneath
58:46
Speaker 2: to see like, was there normal regression? And I say
58:50
Speaker 2: normal regression. It's not that they took a step back,
58:52
Speaker 2: but a lot of times these guys you see just
58:54
Speaker 2: slight ticks down and a few things that just added
58:59
Speaker 2: up to big things. And I think that's fair. With
59:01
Speaker 2: a few of these guys we're going to talk about
59:02
Speaker 2: where they still were really good hitters, they still had
59:05
Speaker 2: really good speed, they still do all these things really well.
59:07
Speaker 2: It's just the teams took a step back or they
59:10
Speaker 2: had a little bit of luck go the wrong way.
59:12
Speaker 2: And I'm trying to stuff that out and say, Okay,
59:16
Speaker 2: where's the truth. Was it the prior year, was it
59:18
Speaker 2: this year? Is it somewhere in between? That's really what
59:20
Speaker 2: I'm trying to do going forward and trying to figure
59:23
Speaker 2: out where the markets can ultimately land on him, because
59:26
Speaker 2: sometimes there's name value, sometimes there's not, and that actually
59:29
Speaker 2: might drive the overall value more than anything else.
59:33
Speaker 1: All right, I think that's fair. So with that let's
59:35
Speaker 1: get into our first player, and like I said, he
59:38
Speaker 1: was injured with a high ankle sprain just a little
59:40
Speaker 1: bit ago. But I mean we were having discussions about
59:43
Speaker 1: Julio Rodriguez, outfielder for the Mariners, being on this list
59:48
Speaker 1: at the All Star break because things were not going well.
59:52
Speaker 1: He has picked it up of late. As you know.
59:54
Speaker 1: September has been just an absolute boon for him overall.
59:58
Speaker 1: He's been hitting three forty with six homers over seventeen
1:00:02
Speaker 1: games this month, but the overall value hasn't been there.
1:00:06
Speaker 1: You had to burn a very early pick on him.
1:00:09
Speaker 1: He was fifth overall in our Player Raider thirty four
1:00:12
Speaker 1: and a half dollars right now, as of this date,
1:00:16
Speaker 1: he is at sixteen and a half dollars in our
1:00:19
Speaker 1: Player Raider, So that's a twenty dollars step back. Certainly
1:00:22
Speaker 1: the worst of any of the first rounders that didn't
1:00:25
Speaker 1: have an injury thing happened like Acunya obviously, and even
1:00:30
Speaker 1: going back to our first round mock draft that we
1:00:33
Speaker 1: had just a couple of weeks ago on Episode fifty seven,
1:00:37
Speaker 1: we didn't take him in the first round, So I
1:00:39
Speaker 1: think that kind of indicatese maybe where we are on
1:00:41
Speaker 1: Julio Rodriguez, But what are you doing with him going
1:00:45
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five now that he is coming off
1:00:48
Speaker 1: of age twenty one season where he hit for a
1:00:51
Speaker 1: one to forty eight w RC plus twenty two a
1:00:54
Speaker 1: one to twenty eight WRC plus if you recall that
1:00:57
Speaker 1: from last year in twenty twenty three, also took a
1:00:59
Speaker 1: pretty stretch to be able to get to that one
1:01:02
Speaker 1: twenty eight WRC plus This year twenty twenty four aged
1:01:06
Speaker 1: twenty three one sixteen WRC plus. So what are we
1:01:10
Speaker 1: doing with Julio?
1:01:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Julio, I'm probably averaging the last two
1:01:15
Speaker 2: seasons for a for a full full run with Julio.
1:01:20
Speaker 2: And the second thing I'm probably doing with Julio is
1:01:23
Speaker 2: passing in the first half and trading in the second half.
1:01:26
Speaker 2: Julio Rodriguez is league averaged in the first half over
1:01:30
Speaker 2: his career. The other three season we've had him, he
1:01:33
Speaker 2: gives one to fifteen WRC plus in the first half
1:01:36
Speaker 2: and in the second half. I think it dumps up
1:01:38
Speaker 2: to a one fifty six if I if I recall
1:01:40
Speaker 2: when I was looking at that, and so he's just
1:01:42
Speaker 2: been a different guy in the in the second half
1:01:44
Speaker 2: versus the first first half. And I think the reason
1:01:49
Speaker 2: I look at this is kind of averaging in the
1:01:50
Speaker 2: last two years. If you look under the covers, there's
1:01:53
Speaker 2: not a whole lot of difference. He he hasn't changed
1:01:56
Speaker 2: much as far as the hitting profile, the quality contact metrics,
1:02:01
Speaker 2: really those a few things have changed. He has a
1:02:04
Speaker 2: few less games this year because he battled a few injuries.
1:02:08
Speaker 2: He also had a dip in his home run for
1:02:11
Speaker 2: a fly ball rate, which directly impacted the home runs
1:02:14
Speaker 2: that he was hitting because he didn't not like he
1:02:15
Speaker 2: hit less fly balls or anything like that. And so
1:02:18
Speaker 2: when you saw those numbers just drop slightly, you know,
1:02:23
Speaker 2: it's it's there's a little bit of luck playing into that.
1:02:26
Speaker 2: And the other thing is the Mariners were worse. And
1:02:31
Speaker 2: I think that's actually one of the big things that
1:02:33
Speaker 2: kind of come out here, is that the Mariners were
1:02:35
Speaker 2: like a top five offense border in twenty three and
1:02:40
Speaker 2: now they're like mid mid offense at best in twenty four.
1:02:44
Speaker 2: And so he got less at bats, he had less
1:02:46
Speaker 2: guys to knock in, he had less opportunities, and that's
1:02:50
Speaker 2: kind of playing out across his line. So you know,
1:02:53
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, if he had a
1:02:55
Speaker 2: few more games, he might have ended up with like
1:02:58
Speaker 2: a twenty thirty season hitting seive, which is not that shabby,
1:03:03
Speaker 2: and then you pile in a better offense and the
1:03:06
Speaker 2: runs and RBIs jump up like it's he wasn't that
1:03:10
Speaker 2: far off from twenty three, but he had a decent
1:03:13
Speaker 2: amount of luck in twenty three. So, like I said,
1:03:16
Speaker 2: I'm averaging him. I'm treating him like probably a mid
1:03:19
Speaker 2: to late second round right now. And I do think
1:03:24
Speaker 2: the volatility will scare me away a little bit because
1:03:27
Speaker 2: I could just I can see it now because when
1:03:30
Speaker 2: the first half ends up being the area that he
1:03:32
Speaker 2: seems to struggle with, it's really hard to hold on
1:03:35
Speaker 2: to a guy the whole first half hoping that he
1:03:39
Speaker 2: does turn around the second half, even though that's kind
1:03:41
Speaker 2: of hism. So like I said, I'm I'm passing mostly
1:03:44
Speaker 2: on Julio next year if you know he does. If
1:03:46
Speaker 2: he will rough in the first half, but the underlying
1:03:48
Speaker 2: metrics seem to be holding relatively steady, I'm gonna be
1:03:52
Speaker 2: buying come All Star break.
1:03:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think I'm probably in around
1:03:58
Speaker 1: the same value as as he, So like I think
1:04:01
Speaker 1: I am treating him as like a mid second rounder. Certainly.
1:04:04
Speaker 1: I think part of it is because of the high
1:04:06
Speaker 1: strikeout rate and the lack of walks is just gonna
1:04:09
Speaker 1: make him more volatile than some of the really high
1:04:12
Speaker 1: end bats that go in that first round. That it's
1:04:14
Speaker 1: really gonna limit his stolen base chances because it isn't
1:04:18
Speaker 1: like oh Tani, where you know he walks enough where
1:04:21
Speaker 1: he can just keep swiping bags. And on top of it,
1:04:25
Speaker 1: like you said, the Mariners are awful. That's a terrible
1:04:27
Speaker 1: home park, so you've got to factor that in. And
1:04:31
Speaker 1: he's a big Julio is a big player where I'm
1:04:37
Speaker 1: focused on what the format I'm playing is too terrible
1:04:40
Speaker 1: head to head player, an awful head to head player
1:04:43
Speaker 1: because he can just he'll win you weeks, but he'll
1:04:46
Speaker 1: lose you weeks as well, because he's just not gonna
1:04:50
Speaker 1: produce the consistent kind of like twenty five to thirty
1:04:53
Speaker 1: dollars every week. That it's a peaks and valley like
1:04:55
Speaker 1: you said, because he's so streaky, Rodo, I'm more willing
1:04:59
Speaker 1: to take that risk on and just kind of set
1:05:00
Speaker 1: it and forget it. But certainly I don't think either
1:05:04
Speaker 1: of us are going to end up with too many
1:05:05
Speaker 1: shares of him because I think there's always going to
1:05:07
Speaker 1: be somebody higher on him, especially when you see that
1:05:10
Speaker 1: he is going to be walking into like his age
1:05:12
Speaker 1: twenty four season going into next year.
1:05:15
Speaker 2: Yep, I don't disagree. So it'll be interesting to see
1:05:18
Speaker 2: where he goes. But I bet you's somebody's gonna be
1:05:21
Speaker 2: trying to stipe him right at the back of that
1:05:24
Speaker 2: first round quite often.
1:05:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, next player we have is Matt Olsen, who
1:05:30
Speaker 1: before the season was projected for twenty nine point four
1:05:34
Speaker 1: dollars of value in our auction raider, which would have
1:05:38
Speaker 1: made him the number one overall first baseman as he
1:05:41
Speaker 1: was coming off of a fifty homer season in twenty
1:05:43
Speaker 1: twenty three. This year to date, he has turned in
1:05:46
Speaker 1: only seventeen point one dollars of value. Not even the
1:05:49
Speaker 1: best Matt out there out there. Matt Chapman is the
1:05:52
Speaker 1: number one Matt, and it's been a tough and very
1:05:56
Speaker 1: mixed season. I would say for Matt Olsen, a little
1:05:58
Speaker 1: bit of streakiness like Julio where he has come on
1:06:01
Speaker 1: of late. It's a one forty three WRC plus in
1:06:05
Speaker 1: August a one eighty six right now in September as
1:06:09
Speaker 1: and I can attest to this because I'm playing against
1:06:11
Speaker 1: him right now and I head to head matchup for
1:06:13
Speaker 1: the like Fantasy Finals. It is killing me that he's
1:06:17
Speaker 1: been on a tear here in September, but it hasn't
1:06:21
Speaker 1: lifted the overall profile as it's been a two forty six,
1:06:24
Speaker 1: three thirty three, four sixty three slash line. The four
1:06:27
Speaker 1: sixty three especially hurts. It was a six oh four
1:06:30
Speaker 1: slog last year. It's been good for a one eighteen
1:06:33
Speaker 1: WRC plus only twenty nine homers. The RBI were still
1:06:37
Speaker 1: there relatively at ninety eight, but I mean he put
1:06:39
Speaker 1: up one hundred and thirty nine and twenty twenty three.
1:06:42
Speaker 1: So what are you doing with Matt Olsen and what
1:06:46
Speaker 1: do you think caused his overall disappointment here in twenty
1:06:49
Speaker 1: twenty four.
1:06:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, oddly, it's a very similar conversation we
1:06:53
Speaker 2: just had with Julio. I just guess I think it is,
1:06:55
Speaker 2: like you look at it, like he's had a great
1:06:57
Speaker 2: second half. He was rough in the first half, which
1:06:59
Speaker 2: is not his mos across his career, but definitely happened
1:07:03
Speaker 2: this time around the Braves were like the number one
1:07:05
Speaker 2: offense last year and they're like twenty this year, so
1:07:09
Speaker 2: they've definitely taken a drop back. Yeah, his quality contracts
1:07:13
Speaker 2: contact has dropped a little bit, and so I think
1:07:15
Speaker 2: that has picked up as of late. And so that's
1:07:19
Speaker 2: nice to see, you know. He he did have kind
1:07:21
Speaker 2: of like outsize luck from a home run perspective in
1:07:25
Speaker 2: twenty three and probably the exact opposite in twenty four,
1:07:28
Speaker 2: which is the biggest driver when we talk about what
1:07:32
Speaker 2: we're what we're seeing from from from Olsen here, I
1:07:36
Speaker 2: want to say, Chapman, you throw me off now, but
1:07:39
Speaker 2: you know, I think that's probably the biggest outliers that
1:07:42
Speaker 2: he hit fifty four last year with a two eighty
1:07:43
Speaker 2: three average, and he dropped back to like what I
1:07:48
Speaker 2: think Matt Olsen is, which is really a two fifty
1:07:50
Speaker 2: two sixty hitter, and you know, he got a little
1:07:53
Speaker 2: unlucky with with the home runs and you know, and
1:07:55
Speaker 2: maybe it should have been thirty five or or forty.
1:07:58
Speaker 2: And so at the end of the day, like I'm
1:08:00
Speaker 2: still looking at Matt Olsen as a pretty good piece.
1:08:03
Speaker 2: And the reason I'm a little more a little higher
1:08:05
Speaker 2: on Olsen than I would be on Rodriguez first of all,
1:08:08
Speaker 2: the situation, the ballpark, the team that he's playing on. Second,
1:08:12
Speaker 2: I think because he didn't bring the speed, he didn't
1:08:16
Speaker 2: have that extra boost up in drafts up to be
1:08:18
Speaker 2: that like first second or early second round, or he
1:08:21
Speaker 2: was already being treated in that third or fourth round
1:08:24
Speaker 2: kind of spot, and he might drop back down to
1:08:28
Speaker 2: a fifth and sixth round type spot. And I'm actually
1:08:31
Speaker 2: pretty happy with him at that spot because I still
1:08:33
Speaker 2: think he is a guy that can go thirty five
1:08:35
Speaker 2: or forty homers, one hundred RBI, hit two sixty. I
1:08:39
Speaker 2: think that's who Matt chap or cash to get you
1:08:41
Speaker 2: did it to me, Matt Olsen is, And so let's
1:08:46
Speaker 2: let's not talk about Matt Chapman a whole whole different discussion.
1:08:49
Speaker 2: But Yeah, I'm actually still very intrigued with Olsen. I'll
1:08:53
Speaker 2: give him the benefit of the doubt that he had
1:08:56
Speaker 2: a little bit of a rough first half here, and
1:08:57
Speaker 2: if he can string together two haves just like he
1:09:00
Speaker 2: did last year to do again next year, I'm gonna
1:09:02
Speaker 2: be pretty happy from that investment.
1:09:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think I'm a little bit lower
1:09:07
Speaker 1: on him than you, just as he does get older,
1:09:09
Speaker 1: that he's always had a lot of swing and miss
1:09:12
Speaker 1: in his game as well as I think his played
1:09:13
Speaker 1: approach is a little bit more of like it shades
1:09:18
Speaker 1: towards like the Joey Gallo, like sitting on pitches and
1:09:22
Speaker 1: guessing as opposed to being like a just good peer hitter.
1:09:26
Speaker 1: And you can what that comes from is you especially
1:09:29
Speaker 1: just look at his like profile coming through Oakland and
1:09:32
Speaker 1: where the strikeouts peaked at you know, thirty one percent.
1:09:36
Speaker 1: It wasn't twenty twenty one, but or in twenty twenty.
1:09:38
Speaker 1: But like, the swing and miss has always been a
1:09:41
Speaker 1: part of his game and was when he was coming
1:09:43
Speaker 1: up that like it he can guess right and hit
1:09:47
Speaker 1: the pitch. It works. But I think because of that, again,
1:09:50
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little bit like Julio where he
1:09:52
Speaker 1: can be really streaky. So format I think is really
1:09:55
Speaker 1: important where you're picking up Matt Olson to be able
1:09:58
Speaker 1: to fortify accordingly. But yeah, I think it's also a
1:10:02
Speaker 1: case of like you can probably look a little bit
1:10:05
Speaker 1: more towards like averaging his three years and in Atlanta,
1:10:09
Speaker 1: and that's probably about where it's going to settle, somewhere
1:10:11
Speaker 1: in like forty ish homers like a two fifty ish
1:10:15
Speaker 1: two fifty five ish average and kind of split the difference,
1:10:19
Speaker 1: and I think you'll still end up with a pretty
1:10:21
Speaker 1: decent player. And then I hope that you know, he
1:10:23
Speaker 1: might be able to catch a little bit of fire
1:10:24
Speaker 1: here or there.
1:10:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, all of some shares. But I do think the
1:10:29
Speaker 2: overall markets can be down more on Olsen than it
1:10:31
Speaker 2: is on Julio, just because of the youth and the upside,
1:10:36
Speaker 2: and which brings me to a little bit more excitement
1:10:38
Speaker 2: on Olsen than than Julio, just because I think the
1:10:40
Speaker 2: market tends to overadjust to these types of things.
1:10:43
Speaker 1: Okay, next disappointing bat we have is Randy a Rose
1:10:46
Speaker 1: Arena now with the Mariners, formerly of the Rays when
1:10:49
Speaker 1: he started the season, and he's had a disappointing season
1:10:52
Speaker 1: as he was slated in our auction calculator to be
1:10:55
Speaker 1: worth nineteen point six dollars of value, has only provided
1:10:59
Speaker 1: eight point seven dollars of value going into this upcoming weekend,
1:11:04
Speaker 1: the final weekend, and it's he's reached twenty twenty. So
1:11:08
Speaker 1: he did bring that for you, but the runs and
1:11:11
Speaker 1: rais have degraded. The batting average has really taken a
1:11:15
Speaker 1: step back. It was two fifty four last year to
1:11:18
Speaker 1: twenty two. This year. WRC plus is getting up to
1:11:22
Speaker 1: the same range, but it's just been like the counting
1:11:25
Speaker 1: stats haven't been there, and that's where Randy A. Ros
1:11:28
Speaker 1: Arena has been missing the overall value even though he's
1:11:33
Speaker 1: played in one hundred and fifty one games, which is
1:11:35
Speaker 1: the same they played in in twenty twenty three. And
1:11:39
Speaker 1: I think that this is one where it is more
1:11:42
Speaker 1: of I think a warning flag that like, uh, and
1:11:47
Speaker 1: there's another player that we're about to talk about who
1:11:49
Speaker 1: I think is further along this kind of career arc
1:11:53
Speaker 1: than Randy Rosarena is, because you're looking at his barrel
1:11:57
Speaker 1: rate has backed up this year too, from twelve point
1:11:59
Speaker 1: three percent to eight point two percent. But people forget
1:12:03
Speaker 1: even though he's only been around a short while because
1:12:06
Speaker 1: he languished in the cardinal system forever. Randy rose Arena
1:12:10
Speaker 1: is going to turn thirty in the off season, and
1:12:12
Speaker 1: I think this is kind of a classic profile where
1:12:14
Speaker 1: it doesn't age very gracefully. So I think we're starting
1:12:18
Speaker 1: to see signs of that. And so what are you
1:12:21
Speaker 1: doing with Randy A. Rose Arena? Am I off base
1:12:24
Speaker 1: with any of the analysis that I just kind of
1:12:26
Speaker 1: laid on top of you.
1:12:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're pretty pretty spot on. Like I
1:12:30
Speaker 2: of guys we're talking about today, I'm concerned with the
1:12:33
Speaker 2: Rose arena as much as almost anybody else here, and
1:12:37
Speaker 2: it the problem I see with the Rose arena is
1:12:40
Speaker 2: like the last few years, it feels like he if
1:12:42
Speaker 2: you look at the underline numbers, he seems like he's
1:12:44
Speaker 2: slightly overachieved each of those years, and now we're adding
1:12:48
Speaker 2: on that aging curve to it, and he achieved kind
1:12:51
Speaker 2: of at the level we expected, and those skills started
1:12:53
Speaker 2: to degrade, and the overall numbers didn't change that much.
1:12:58
Speaker 2: At the full end of the day, of your point,
1:12:59
Speaker 2: he was still twenty twenty. Last year is twenty three,
1:13:01
Speaker 2: twenty two, year before, twenty thirty two, twenty twenty, Like
1:13:05
Speaker 2: it seems like at the end of the day, you
1:13:07
Speaker 2: could argue he's landed in the same spot. But it
1:13:10
Speaker 2: does look like just a little bits here and there
1:13:13
Speaker 2: just like starting to fall off, and it's across the board.
1:13:16
Speaker 2: It's across the board. In his profile, a little of
1:13:19
Speaker 2: everything is just kind of backing up, which with this
1:13:23
Speaker 2: profile and again, where where he's gonna end up playing
1:13:28
Speaker 2: here like it's it's gonna be a question of what
1:13:33
Speaker 2: ultimately kind of lineup he has around him, and is
1:13:35
Speaker 2: what kind of production he's gonna be able to sustain,
1:13:37
Speaker 2: because if he can't get those counting stats up from
1:13:40
Speaker 2: a runs RBI perspective, he really takes a draw, a
1:13:43
Speaker 2: step back, and he is he's now running to a
1:13:45
Speaker 2: spot where he's hurting you pretty significantly in the batting
1:13:48
Speaker 2: average perspective. So I'm I'm very concerned with Randy rose arena,
1:13:53
Speaker 2: and I'm I'm probably sticking away from him in the
1:13:56
Speaker 2: vast majority of leagues next year. So I do think
1:14:01
Speaker 2: the curve aging curves caught up and it's, uh, we
1:14:04
Speaker 2: gotta be careful with with this kind of profile.
1:14:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I totally agree. So I think he's
1:14:10
Speaker 1: going to be somebody where I'm gonna need a decent
1:14:13
Speaker 1: discount and then where I can like be looking. I
1:14:16
Speaker 1: think it will be also if I'm looking for a
1:14:19
Speaker 1: twenty twenty player, you know, just to be able to
1:14:21
Speaker 1: get both categories at the same time, and I feel
1:14:24
Speaker 1: pretty good about batting average and where my accounting stats are,
1:14:28
Speaker 1: then maybe I'll start shading towards him, but it I
1:14:32
Speaker 1: think it's only going one way. So especially in dynasty
1:14:35
Speaker 1: keeper leagues, it's gonna be the off season, even though
1:14:37
Speaker 1: it's gonna hurt because the value dropped, it's gonna be
1:14:41
Speaker 1: the off season to start shopping Randy Rose Arena and
1:14:44
Speaker 1: kind of taking what you can back.
1:14:47
Speaker 2: And I really do think think once there's like a
1:14:49
Speaker 2: weird tipping point for me, like once you start to
1:14:51
Speaker 2: hit like two twenty two thirty, it's like that. I
1:14:55
Speaker 2: think people underestimate the penalty, especially in the rotal league,
1:14:58
Speaker 2: to your batting average, like it's the number of standard
1:15:01
Speaker 2: deviations from the meaning here, it's really hard to pick
1:15:05
Speaker 2: that deck up versus some of your other counting SATs.
1:15:08
Speaker 2: And so I think he's gone so far as like
1:15:10
Speaker 2: it's a twenty twenty bat I'll deal with a little
1:15:12
Speaker 2: batting adverge, Like it's a lot easier to find ten
1:15:15
Speaker 2: steals or ten homer somewhere than it is to find
1:15:19
Speaker 2: ten to fifteen twenty points on the batting average. So
1:15:22
Speaker 2: I'm yeah, that's gonna be a challenge.
1:15:24
Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree. Okay, next player we have is
1:15:29
Speaker 1: former MVP for the Saint Louis Cardinals Paul Goldschmidt, who
1:15:33
Speaker 1: came into the year having a value projected for him
1:15:38
Speaker 1: of eighteen point four dollars on our player Raider, and
1:15:41
Speaker 1: currently we are staring at seven point two dollars of
1:15:45
Speaker 1: value from gold Schmith, who if we had had this
1:15:48
Speaker 1: conversation around the All Star break, it would have been
1:15:51
Speaker 1: about a zero dollar value because it was a rough
1:15:53
Speaker 1: first half with an eighty seven WRC plus. He has
1:15:57
Speaker 1: bounced back more in the second half, but it's only
1:16:00
Speaker 1: been to a one to sixteen WRC plus and he
1:16:03
Speaker 1: has struck out less. But certainly it doesn't seem that
1:16:09
Speaker 1: pictures out there are very afraid of him, because the
1:16:12
Speaker 1: walk rate has pretty much held steady at seven, like
1:16:16
Speaker 1: to seven and a half percent all season after being
1:16:19
Speaker 1: you know, twelve percent over the past couple of years
1:16:21
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals. That it's a pretty telling sign that like,
1:16:25
Speaker 1: pictures aren't afraid of him. And recently, in a report
1:16:30
Speaker 1: that Mark Saxson was covering overall for John Denton on
1:16:34
Speaker 1: the Beat report for MLB dot Com, there was I
1:16:37
Speaker 1: think this very telling quote about Paul Goldschmidt in there
1:16:40
Speaker 1: that he said, the truth is, I tried everything this
1:16:44
Speaker 1: is in regards to trying to turn this season around.
1:16:47
Speaker 1: I tried every drill I could think of, video, no video,
1:16:49
Speaker 1: just go and hit without doing anything before for five months,
1:16:53
Speaker 1: basically including spring training. Honestly, even back towards the second
1:16:57
Speaker 1: half of last year, so almost a full calendar year.
1:17:00
Speaker 1: I just couldnot find a way to consistently put good
1:17:02
Speaker 1: swings on the ball, have good at bats, and get
1:17:05
Speaker 1: the results that were needed to help us win. And
1:17:09
Speaker 1: I don't know, he sounds cooked. He's thirty seven years old.
1:17:14
Speaker 1: Is that what we're looking at? Or is there any
1:17:16
Speaker 1: chance that Paul gold Schmidt can bounce back coming into
1:17:19
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. He is a free agent, so where
1:17:22
Speaker 1: he signs is going to make a big deal as
1:17:25
Speaker 1: we scope him for twenty twenty five drafts. But is
1:17:28
Speaker 1: he anything more than like a last ditch option at
1:17:32
Speaker 1: first base or a corner infield option going into your
1:17:36
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five drafts.
1:17:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you hit the right spot there is.
1:17:41
Speaker 2: I think we're starting to look at Paul gold Schmidt
1:17:43
Speaker 2: as a corner infield option, not a first space option.
1:17:47
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, his numbers for the
1:17:49
Speaker 2: last two years were incredibly consistent where they landed outside
1:17:53
Speaker 2: of a little bit step back in the walk right here,
1:17:56
Speaker 2: and throughout the whole season, like he did get better,
1:17:58
Speaker 2: like month over month over month, like he continued to
1:18:00
Speaker 2: get better and better and better. Where I really struggled
1:18:04
Speaker 2: with Goldsman, like going into the season like he spent
1:18:06
Speaker 2: he had like one of those storybook off seasons, like
1:18:08
Speaker 2: best ship of your life type of things, and did
1:18:11
Speaker 2: the drive line thing. He did all those things right.
1:18:13
Speaker 2: He looked like he was gonna be in for like
1:18:15
Speaker 2: a return to MVP form, and like he has just
1:18:19
Speaker 2: looked lost, absolutely lost to the plate. And it's the
1:18:22
Speaker 2: only time that he seems to be turning things around
1:18:24
Speaker 2: when the pressure has kind of disappeared. And so I
1:18:28
Speaker 2: think that the best case for him is to stick
1:18:30
Speaker 2: around in Saint Louis. If he does that, I think
1:18:33
Speaker 2: that he's got a little bit better value because he's
1:18:35
Speaker 2: gonna be comfortable with where he's at. I think anywhere
1:18:38
Speaker 2: else he goes, the pressure is just gonna be more
1:18:39
Speaker 2: and more, and it seems like the pressure has been
1:18:41
Speaker 2: getting to him. And so I'm I'm still willing to
1:18:45
Speaker 2: say that there's some value in this bat here, but
1:18:48
Speaker 2: it's more of this year's kind of the peak and
1:18:52
Speaker 2: there's probably some downside. So if I'm if I'm looking
1:18:55
Speaker 2: at a mid tier corner infielder, sure, I'm I'm willing
1:18:59
Speaker 2: to invent in goalie and I might be happy because
1:19:03
Speaker 2: he you know, if if you know what happened that
1:19:06
Speaker 2: the second half of the season kind of sticks through there,
1:19:09
Speaker 2: I could be relatively happy with what he does at
1:19:11
Speaker 2: a corner endfield. But if we get another season like this,
1:19:14
Speaker 2: which would be three in a row where he was
1:19:18
Speaker 2: kind of just average, then I think it's time to
1:19:22
Speaker 2: say that he is fully fully cooked at this point.
1:19:25
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm I'm it hurts me to say, because
1:19:30
Speaker 2: this has been such a fantastic career, I would argue
1:19:33
Speaker 2: he's on the verge of a Hall of Fame career.
1:19:36
Speaker 2: I would have liked one more one or two more
1:19:39
Speaker 2: seasons to kind of cement that. But I do think
1:19:43
Speaker 2: that he's definitely in that that that discussion, So I
1:19:48
Speaker 2: just hope we're not having a chuck nasty conversation about
1:19:50
Speaker 2: him next year.
1:19:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I guess is there because he's a
1:19:55
Speaker 1: free agent and Saint Lewis is a tough spot for hitters.
1:20:00
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at some contenders because I think that's
1:20:03
Speaker 1: where he's gonna end up signing, right, Like, he's not
1:20:05
Speaker 1: going to be signing like a Jason Giombi deal in
1:20:08
Speaker 1: Colorado where.
1:20:09
Speaker 2: Anthony Rizzo type path here, like the Yankees or something
1:20:12
Speaker 2: like that. Yeah, that's fair.
1:20:13
Speaker 1: So some of the like the nicer parks that are
1:20:16
Speaker 1: contenders where I could see him kind of matriculating to
1:20:20
Speaker 1: Kansas City, New Year Kids, Yes, Houston, the Yankees, actually Arizona.
1:20:29
Speaker 1: Christian Walker is a free agent. If they can't bring
1:20:32
Speaker 1: him back, I could see them bringing Goldschmid in on
1:20:35
Speaker 1: a one year deal or something. Any of those kind
1:20:37
Speaker 1: of like would it park upgrade intrigue you more or
1:20:40
Speaker 1: is it a little bit more of like, Hey, this
1:20:44
Speaker 1: dude is getting old and is in the twilight of
1:20:46
Speaker 1: his career. I'm not going to put too much value
1:20:48
Speaker 1: into this.
1:20:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's kind of where I said, I
1:20:51
Speaker 2: don't think any change, Like I do think there's probably
1:20:55
Speaker 2: a trade off of he goes somewhere new the pressure
1:20:57
Speaker 2: to perform the new contract probably outweighs any benefit of
1:21:02
Speaker 2: the park. And that's where I said, like, if probably
1:21:05
Speaker 2: for me, his best benefit is to still stay in
1:21:07
Speaker 2: Saint Louis. I don't know if Saint Louis will keep him,
1:21:09
Speaker 2: knowing that ball park club, they probably will try. Whether
1:21:13
Speaker 2: they should or not, it's a different discussion, but yeah,
1:21:16
Speaker 2: I'm kind of looking at him steady. They take the
1:21:19
Speaker 2: last two years projections, next year, anything else you gainst
1:21:22
Speaker 2: the bonus?
1:21:23
Speaker 1: Okay, got it all right, Next player we're going to discuss.
1:21:26
Speaker 1: And this is the one that I alluded to with
1:21:29
Speaker 1: Randia Rosarana, even though I mean, I guess he's like
1:21:32
Speaker 1: technically a year and a half holder. Ish also came
1:21:36
Speaker 1: through the cardinal system and got started late because he
1:21:39
Speaker 1: was just buried in that system. And that is Adal
1:21:42
Speaker 1: Scarcia from the Texas Rangers, who before the season was
1:21:46
Speaker 1: projected for seventeen and a half dollars of value, currently
1:21:51
Speaker 1: clocking in at eight point four dollars of value on
1:21:53
Speaker 1: our player Raider, and it's been a pretty tough season,
1:21:57
Speaker 1: and he's hit two twenty one, which is eerily similar
1:22:00
Speaker 1: to Randi ros Arena. There OBP of two to eighty one,
1:22:05
Speaker 1: slug of three ninety. That's good for an eighty eight
1:22:08
Speaker 1: WRC plus yuck. It's actually been a negative war season
1:22:11
Speaker 1: for Aduli Scarcia, but he has put up twenty three bombs,
1:22:15
Speaker 1: eleven stolen bases, eighty one RBI, so some of those
1:22:17
Speaker 1: counting stats still came through. He is going into a
1:22:22
Speaker 1: walk year next year. Oh no, no, never mind. It was
1:22:25
Speaker 1: an extension that covered just one ARB year, so he's
1:22:28
Speaker 1: still arbitration eligible through twenty twenty six, so it's not
1:22:32
Speaker 1: like he's got a lot of motivation to be working
1:22:35
Speaker 1: for another contract. I'm out on Adul Scarcia. I kind
1:22:39
Speaker 1: of was before the season because, like I was alluding
1:22:42
Speaker 1: to with Randia Rose Arena, when the type of profiles
1:22:47
Speaker 1: they have just kind of age in terms of really
1:22:50
Speaker 1: limited numbers of walks, really lots of strikeouts. It just
1:22:55
Speaker 1: does not end very poorly and it can wrap up
1:22:58
Speaker 1: pretty quickly. So so I don't think I'll even be
1:23:02
Speaker 1: looking for Noduli's Garcia bounce back next year, especially given
1:23:06
Speaker 1: Evan Carter is going to be back in the mix.
1:23:08
Speaker 1: I think the Rangers are going to really push Garcia.
1:23:11
Speaker 1: He's not going to get one hundred and fifty games
1:23:13
Speaker 1: to put up an eighty eight WRC plus and be
1:23:16
Speaker 1: a negative war player next year. For the Rangers that
1:23:20
Speaker 1: I think they're looking to contend again, and so I
1:23:23
Speaker 1: think those factors just really unless you know you're talking
1:23:27
Speaker 1: a fifth fourth outfield or somebody who I can only
1:23:30
Speaker 1: use to plug the back endo my roster, I just
1:23:33
Speaker 1: don't see Garcia being much value next year. What do
1:23:36
Speaker 1: you think?
1:23:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna say I'm a little more in on
1:23:40
Speaker 2: Garcia here, and that's not saying much as you were
1:23:43
Speaker 2: completely out, but I'm a little more in than a
1:23:47
Speaker 2: Rosarina Garcia for Garcia here. But again there will for
1:23:51
Speaker 2: profiles are pretty similar to kind of the arc of
1:23:53
Speaker 2: the career, similar Like, there's so many similarities here. The
1:23:57
Speaker 2: reason I'm a little bit more willing to talk here
1:24:01
Speaker 2: is he did he has all the hallmarks of just
1:24:05
Speaker 2: he was lost and pressing way too much. Last year.
1:24:08
Speaker 2: He was he was attacking the first pitch. His first
1:24:11
Speaker 2: pitch swing percentage jumped eight points last year and it was,
1:24:17
Speaker 2: what is it, twelve points above the major league average.
1:24:20
Speaker 2: Like he was pressing and he was trying to make
1:24:23
Speaker 2: things happen, and he was just lost. And that's a
1:24:26
Speaker 2: little bit easier to recover from than just pure skilled degradation.
1:24:31
Speaker 2: He's still hitting the ball incredibly hard. When he hits
1:24:34
Speaker 2: the ball hard, like, his maxim exit velocity was the
1:24:39
Speaker 2: best of his career, up there, in the top fifty
1:24:42
Speaker 2: percent of the league, And so when he was making
1:24:44
Speaker 2: the hard contact, it was really hard contact. He just
1:24:48
Speaker 2: wasn't getting the right taking the right pitches. He just
1:24:50
Speaker 2: wasn't putting himself on the right spot. So I think
1:24:53
Speaker 2: there's a little bit more potential for him to take
1:24:55
Speaker 2: an off season reset and make some of those adjustments
1:24:58
Speaker 2: versus a guy like a Rose Rain like gulgmanth where
1:25:01
Speaker 2: the skills tripped are degrading. Don't get me wrong, Garcia
1:25:04
Speaker 2: is still still trending the wrong direction. But I'm a
1:25:08
Speaker 2: little bit more willing to take that gamble later in
1:25:10
Speaker 2: a draft where a guy like this than if you
1:25:13
Speaker 2: start to see some of those metrics come back in
1:25:16
Speaker 2: the line where he's being a little bit more patient,
1:25:19
Speaker 2: he's walking a little bit more, he just looks more
1:25:21
Speaker 2: comfortable to plate. I think the results do kind of
1:25:25
Speaker 2: come back around for him. He's not like a guy
1:25:27
Speaker 2: like a Rosena who kind of outperformed some of his metrics,
1:25:30
Speaker 2: like Garcia performed kind of at his metrics overall, they
1:25:34
Speaker 2: just took a big step back. But I think again,
1:25:37
Speaker 2: I think he was. He was pressing pretty significantly for
1:25:40
Speaker 2: the vast majority of the year because he just felt lost.
1:25:44
Speaker 2: I'll give him a second chance here, but let's be
1:25:47
Speaker 2: very clear, I'm like giving him ten points more than
1:25:49
Speaker 2: you are here. I'm not fully bought in by any
1:25:52
Speaker 2: means to Garcia next year. He's got to have to
1:25:55
Speaker 2: fall fall into my lap later in a draft.
1:25:58
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I think that makes sense. All right. Now
1:26:01
Speaker 1: that we've talked to hitters, let's move on to a
1:26:03
Speaker 1: few pitchers. And it's a little tough to find healthy
1:26:07
Speaker 1: pitchers to be able to discuss this that that is
1:26:10
Speaker 1: usually like the biggest kind of step back overall, and
1:26:14
Speaker 1: we're going to maybe theorize whether any of these guys
1:26:18
Speaker 1: ran into those types of issues or if there's just
1:26:20
Speaker 1: kind of something else going on in their profile. The
1:26:23
Speaker 1: first one we've got is Zach Gallon, who was projected
1:26:26
Speaker 1: for twenty two point three dollars and has put up
1:26:29
Speaker 1: just six point nine dollars. For you, lots of teams
1:26:32
Speaker 1: probably drafted Zach Gallon as honestly what you love about
1:26:37
Speaker 1: sunny Gray, where like you know you draft him maybe
1:26:40
Speaker 1: as an early number two for your staff, that can
1:26:43
Speaker 1: be a number one, And especially coming off of the
1:26:47
Speaker 1: year that Gallon had last year, where he had a
1:26:50
Speaker 1: three forty seven ERA over two hundred and ten innings
1:26:53
Speaker 1: seventeen wins for the d Backs as he led them
1:26:56
Speaker 1: to the World Series, it's been rough this year. The
1:26:58
Speaker 1: ERA has ballooned a little bit to three seven four,
1:27:01
Speaker 1: The FIP has only gone up from three to two six
1:27:05
Speaker 1: to three forty nine, but it's only been one hundred
1:27:08
Speaker 1: and forty two innings this year, thirteen wins, which have
1:27:10
Speaker 1: been pretty decent. But I'm also worried about the three
1:27:13
Speaker 1: point three walks per nine when it was only two
1:27:17
Speaker 1: in his prime over the past couple of years. So
1:27:21
Speaker 1: we talked about this a little bit before we got
1:27:23
Speaker 1: into the podcast. But it's tough sometimes to see when
1:27:29
Speaker 1: pitchers are masking injuries, and I think the Gallon's got
1:27:33
Speaker 1: a lot of the hallmarks that kind of show that,
1:27:36
Speaker 1: especially given how long is twenty twenty three season was.
1:27:39
Speaker 1: And maybe this is just top of mind as I
1:27:42
Speaker 1: finished recently Clinton Kershaw's The Burden of Greatness book by
1:27:46
Speaker 1: Andy McCullough, where Kershaw has done this for the past
1:27:49
Speaker 1: few years in terms of masking his shoulder and back injuries,
1:27:53
Speaker 1: And do you think there is something that has affected Gallon?
1:27:56
Speaker 1: And then on top of that, is it something that
1:28:00
Speaker 1: maybe you're worried about being long term and affecting his
1:28:03
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five value, or do you think it's something
1:28:05
Speaker 1: where he might be able to get better in the
1:28:08
Speaker 1: off season and be able to return better value in
1:28:12
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five.
1:28:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he does return better value in twenty
1:28:17
Speaker 2: twenty five, but I don't I see more skill degradation
1:28:23
Speaker 2: here overall with Gallon, and that that's where I get concerned.
1:28:26
Speaker 2: You hit right where I was going, is like the
1:28:28
Speaker 2: walk rate concerns be jumping up. He's always been the
1:28:32
Speaker 2: control artist for the last few years. But the K
1:28:35
Speaker 2: rates going the wrong way, the walk rates going the
1:28:38
Speaker 2: wrong way, It's not like there was a whole lot
1:28:40
Speaker 2: of luck changes within his profile, and he had has
1:28:45
Speaker 2: sort of the kind of outproduced kind of his his
1:28:47
Speaker 2: underlying metrics. So I do think I'm a little bit
1:28:51
Speaker 2: more concerned with Galen. That just doesn't seem that his
1:28:54
Speaker 2: stuff is kind of sticking to the quality that that
1:29:00
Speaker 2: it had been it's not like he has, you know,
1:29:04
Speaker 2: much speed drop off in kind of his his pitches here,
1:29:09
Speaker 2: but at the end of the day, he's really relying
1:29:11
Speaker 2: heavily on his fastball, and it seems like guys have
1:29:16
Speaker 2: kind of figured it out. Maybe as a league fastball
1:29:19
Speaker 2: velocities jumped up. His has become more normalized because of that.
1:29:24
Speaker 2: But it definitely seems that he has struggled a lot
1:29:27
Speaker 2: more kind of with his four seam fastball this year.
1:29:32
Speaker 2: Where you know, if I go to Baseball Savant and
1:29:37
Speaker 2: look at the kind of their their pitch value, twenty
1:29:40
Speaker 2: twenty one, he had a twelve run value on his
1:29:42
Speaker 2: four seam. He had a seventeen, twenty twenty two he
1:29:44
Speaker 2: had a twenty seven, and twenty twenty three he was
1:29:46
Speaker 2: relying on that. It was a negative two this year
1:29:49
Speaker 2: and he threw a seven percent of the time. It
1:29:52
Speaker 2: was not a great pitch. He was not getting the
1:29:55
Speaker 2: swing and missus that he has throughout his career. This
1:30:00
Speaker 2: the same way in twenty twenty two he had a
1:30:03
Speaker 2: twenty eight percent k rate on that. It was nineteen
1:30:05
Speaker 2: this year. Something about his fastball that I'm not sure
1:30:09
Speaker 2: if it's a shape, what it is about that. It
1:30:14
Speaker 2: just seems to have dropped off to a pretty significant
1:30:19
Speaker 2: degree here. And I think actually, as I look and
1:30:22
Speaker 2: the horizontal movement, looks like he's dropped about an inch
1:30:27
Speaker 2: and a half in horizontal movement on that that four
1:30:30
Speaker 2: seam fastball. So some of that kind of downward movement
1:30:34
Speaker 2: that we've come to expect and you kind of need.
1:30:38
Speaker 2: So that's where my concern is with Gallon. It doesn't
1:30:42
Speaker 2: seem like that fastball is playing the way it had
1:30:44
Speaker 2: and when that that's not playing, when you throw it
1:30:46
Speaker 2: almost half the time, you can't play your other pitches
1:30:48
Speaker 2: off it. So I'm concerned with Gallen probably not a
1:30:52
Speaker 2: guy I'm gonna look to pick up going forward here,
1:30:56
Speaker 2: just because it seems like the degradation skills and he's
1:31:00
Speaker 2: got to pitches you and what's your primary pitch? I'm
1:31:04
Speaker 2: backing away, Yeah, And I mean, I think when you
1:31:08
Speaker 2: see changes in pitches like that too, it's a pretty
1:31:11
Speaker 2: good indicator that there's something help wise going on too,
1:31:15
Speaker 2: because they're the picture. I mean, they're so consistent that
1:31:19
Speaker 2: like the way, that's what makes them supreme athletes is
1:31:24
Speaker 2: just that their ability to repeat the same motion over
1:31:27
Speaker 2: and over and over and like being able to just
1:31:30
Speaker 2: find that consistency that, especially when you see an entire
1:31:34
Speaker 2: season of that from Zach Gallen, it means that he
1:31:37
Speaker 2: you know, he's trying to throw it from a different
1:31:38
Speaker 2: slot or something else is grabbing or catching or something
1:31:41
Speaker 2: like that where it might be minute, but it can
1:31:44
Speaker 2: make a big difference that it is something though that
1:31:47
Speaker 2: Like if we see that bounce back, I think then
1:31:49
Speaker 2: you do talk about Zach Gallen being like a top
1:31:52
Speaker 2: ten or twelve pitcher again. But until then, I think
1:31:56
Speaker 2: I'm in the same boat as you where I mean,
1:31:59
Speaker 2: he's certainly got value, but it's not going to be
1:32:02
Speaker 2: anything significant as long as he the whip has just
1:32:05
Speaker 2: ballooned on him so significantly. Yeah, And the nice thing
1:32:09
Speaker 2: is like it is very kind of defined of what
1:32:12
Speaker 2: seems to be the struggle with him, like that what
1:32:14
Speaker 2: the the one pitch is really the issue. The problem
1:32:17
Speaker 2: being you're not going to see that fixed rub before
1:32:21
Speaker 2: drafts next year. You're not going to see those like
1:32:23
Speaker 2: that metric stabilizing unless you know he's just blowing guys
1:32:26
Speaker 2: away with an extra mile on the fastball or something
1:32:28
Speaker 2: like that, or it's the movements is crazy in the
1:32:31
Speaker 2: spring training, so by the time you realize that somebody
1:32:33
Speaker 2: has them owned down down staff, uh, and they've just
1:32:37
Speaker 2: taken the gamble on him. So it is going to
1:32:39
Speaker 2: be kind of a challenge the going forward for Gallon here.
1:32:44
Speaker 2: But you're right, it wouldn't shock me if it came
1:32:46
Speaker 2: out with there's an injury or something like that that's really
1:32:48
Speaker 2: held him back.
1:32:50
Speaker 1: Okay, next picture we have is a closer, and that
1:32:53
Speaker 1: is Alexis Diaz from the Cincinnati Rads, who in our
1:32:57
Speaker 1: preseason Player Raider was actually projected be the fifth most
1:33:01
Speaker 1: valuable closer. I mean number four was Camillo daval. I
1:33:05
Speaker 1: guess we could have talked about him too, but I
1:33:07
Speaker 1: think we have had that discussion a little bit. Diaz
1:33:11
Speaker 1: was projected for sixteen point four dollars of value, currently
1:33:15
Speaker 1: clocking in at one point two dollars of value, so
1:33:18
Speaker 1: just barely breaking even. And it's been a really tough
1:33:21
Speaker 1: year for him that the ERA has ballooned from three
1:33:24
Speaker 1: oh seven to four oh seven a full run year
1:33:28
Speaker 1: over year. Same thing with the FIP, so the FIP
1:33:30
Speaker 1: was three fifty two last year, it's four to fifty
1:33:32
Speaker 1: four this year. So I don't know if I've ever
1:33:35
Speaker 1: seen like Era and Fit move in concert like that
1:33:38
Speaker 1: on a player. And the strikeouts have totally dried up.
1:33:42
Speaker 1: They were eleven and a half last year, eight point
1:33:45
Speaker 1: nine nine K nine this year and only twenty eight
1:33:49
Speaker 1: saves on that Cincinnati team that led to David Bell
1:33:53
Speaker 1: losing his job. And so this is an interesting profile
1:34:00
Speaker 1: because the more I look at it, is it just like,
1:34:03
Speaker 1: are people just not swinging at his junk out of
1:34:05
Speaker 1: the zone and not falling for like the Alexis Diaz
1:34:08
Speaker 1: show anymore? Because that seems to be a little bit
1:34:11
Speaker 1: of like the feel that I get when I look
1:34:12
Speaker 1: at this profile that like he always walked a lot
1:34:16
Speaker 1: of dudes, he always threw it out of the zone.
1:34:18
Speaker 1: It just seems that people are laying it off and
1:34:20
Speaker 1: laying dis be wild here, And uh, is that the
1:34:25
Speaker 1: case or do you see something else that has maybe
1:34:27
Speaker 1: caused things to go awry for him? And what are
1:34:30
Speaker 1: we doing with Diaz going forward?
1:34:33
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean I've always been concerned with Daz just
1:34:35
Speaker 2: because the the the wildness that is, you know, Ricky
1:34:41
Speaker 2: Vaughan here with Alexis Diaz, and I think he kind
1:34:46
Speaker 2: of hit it on the head there is that if
1:34:48
Speaker 2: you look at his pitches like they don't seem to
1:34:51
Speaker 2: have changed much. There's not a whole lot of difference there.
1:34:53
Speaker 2: But then you go and you look at the swing
1:34:56
Speaker 2: rates against them, and a year over year over year,
1:35:01
Speaker 2: he's seen the chaise rates drop by held three points
1:35:04
Speaker 2: every year, and then his swing rates in the zone
1:35:08
Speaker 2: have d dropped. The first pitch striker rates have drop
1:35:10
Speaker 2: the overall, it's just people aren't swinging at alexis ideas
1:35:15
Speaker 2: what he's throwing, and then when they are, they're making
1:35:18
Speaker 2: better contact because I think they they're basically laying off
1:35:23
Speaker 2: that the you know, his his his slider, which did
1:35:28
Speaker 2: take a step back this year kind of in quality,
1:35:32
Speaker 2: but they're just laying off that and then just pounding
1:35:34
Speaker 2: the fastball, Like I think that's that's really what it
1:35:37
Speaker 2: comes down to. His fastball this year has a hard
1:35:43
Speaker 2: hit rate of thirty six percent against it. You know,
1:35:48
Speaker 2: people still struggled to hit it for average, but at
1:35:52
Speaker 2: the end of the day, they were still making a
1:35:55
Speaker 2: lot better contact this year. There's a whiff rate last
1:35:59
Speaker 2: year about thirty one, so I was twenty four percent
1:36:01
Speaker 2: this year. So it definitely he is taking a step
1:36:05
Speaker 2: back on the four steamer and then the slider is
1:36:08
Speaker 2: just not out playing off of it. So the wildness
1:36:11
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, I think is the
1:36:12
Speaker 2: biggest issue here. He doesn't know where the ball is
1:36:14
Speaker 2: going and it's always in the air when it gets hit,
1:36:17
Speaker 2: just recipe for disaster. I think there's I think there's
1:36:20
Speaker 2: a lot of talent here, but there is so much
1:36:22
Speaker 2: volatility in that profile that I'm staying far far.
1:36:25
Speaker 1: Away from it next year. Yeah, I am too, because,
1:36:28
Speaker 1: like I think the league has gotten a beat on
1:36:30
Speaker 1: Alexi Site as a veraul and he doesn't seem to
1:36:34
Speaker 1: be able to throw strikes when he needs to or
1:36:36
Speaker 1: a lot of it too. Is he just like can't
1:36:39
Speaker 1: quite get the edges of the zone to, you know,
1:36:42
Speaker 1: to be able to put things close enough to be
1:36:44
Speaker 1: able to make people think they can swing again. So
1:36:48
Speaker 1: until that happens, like, I am certainly out because I
1:36:51
Speaker 1: think it's very possible he gets replaced in Cincinanti because
1:36:54
Speaker 1: the it's just like the overall approach is not anything
1:36:58
Speaker 1: more than a pretty average reliever. I would say, if
1:37:02
Speaker 1: not like an up and down reliever between like Triple
1:37:06
Speaker 1: A and the majors, but if his values next year
1:37:11
Speaker 1: kick out projections that have him making lots of saves.
1:37:15
Speaker 1: I would stay far far away, good call. Okay. Next
1:37:20
Speaker 1: player we have is Chris Bassett for the Toronto Blue Jays.
1:37:25
Speaker 1: So this is a little bit more of like you
1:37:28
Speaker 1: can see that. I don't know if like the skills
1:37:32
Speaker 1: have really like backed up too much on him. He
1:37:34
Speaker 1: has walked almost one more per nine than he did
1:37:38
Speaker 1: last year, as he's a thirty five year old, but
1:37:40
Speaker 1: the fit went down this year from four to twenty
1:37:42
Speaker 1: eight to four oh eight, twenty three to twenty four.
1:37:47
Speaker 1: But I kind of wanted to bring this up because
1:37:50
Speaker 1: it's a great kind of I think learning lessing and
1:37:52
Speaker 1: way to use our tools over at Rasball that like
1:37:55
Speaker 1: what I love is that the values that I've been
1:37:58
Speaker 1: reading off are actually broken down by category standard five
1:38:02
Speaker 1: by five category and Bassett before the year was projected
1:38:05
Speaker 1: to be twelve point one dollars. The value only clocked
1:38:08
Speaker 1: in or actually has clocked in at negative four point
1:38:11
Speaker 1: one dollars for you this year. But I wasn't into
1:38:15
Speaker 1: Gassett at the beginning of the year because when I
1:38:18
Speaker 1: run my own projections, I certainly I think the wins
1:38:22
Speaker 1: whatever win projection Rudy was pulling in must not have
1:38:27
Speaker 1: lined up with what I had because I usually just
1:38:31
Speaker 1: kind of normalize the wins a little bit more across
1:38:33
Speaker 1: the board, like I will give better pictures more wins, obviously,
1:38:36
Speaker 1: but like the difference in Chris Bassett getting wins versus
1:38:41
Speaker 1: like a Tarik Schoogle getting wins in my projections, it's
1:38:44
Speaker 1: maybe like a win because when you're looking at a
1:38:48
Speaker 1: picture who can go five or six innings and is
1:38:51
Speaker 1: making that consistent effort, the win is totally fluky. And
1:38:56
Speaker 1: within Chris Bassett's profile, if you had looked at this
1:38:58
Speaker 1: before the season, six point five dollars of value of
1:39:02
Speaker 1: his twelve point one dollars of value, we're coming from wins.
1:39:05
Speaker 1: And so that's where I think, like, if you had
1:39:08
Speaker 1: drafted Chris Bassett as the twelve dollars value, where he
1:39:12
Speaker 1: probably was like a number three maybe even number two
1:39:14
Speaker 1: starter for some teams that were desperate, that can get
1:39:18
Speaker 1: you in trouble really fast if you're not looking at
1:39:21
Speaker 1: where that value is coming from. Because I would say
1:39:24
Speaker 1: that wins and RBI are the ones on the hitters,
1:39:27
Speaker 1: where like if I see a big RBI value it's
1:39:29
Speaker 1: the same sort of thing in my own projections, is
1:39:31
Speaker 1: that usually I'm normalizing those a little bit more to
1:39:34
Speaker 1: like bring everybody closer to a mean because it's such
1:39:37
Speaker 1: a luck based stat But is there maybe something else
1:39:41
Speaker 1: that you're looking at with Chris Bassett that like you
1:39:44
Speaker 1: would be running away from him because of like skills
1:39:48
Speaker 1: or anything else overall, or do you think that, like, hey,
1:39:51
Speaker 1: maybe you're in on Chris Bassett because it's been a
1:39:53
Speaker 1: pretty putrid year, but blue Jay should be better next year.
1:39:57
Speaker 1: It can't go too much worse for him.
1:40:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure that I agree with the blue
1:40:03
Speaker 2: Jay should be better next year. And you know, Chris
1:40:06
Speaker 2: Bassett's not getting younger. He's gonna be in this age
1:40:09
Speaker 2: thirty six season next year. And so you're right when
1:40:12
Speaker 2: you say, like a lot of his value came from
1:40:14
Speaker 2: the winds and overall his profile wasn't a whole lot
1:40:18
Speaker 2: different than twenty three. But this was the fourth consecutive
1:40:21
Speaker 2: year where his walk rate went up, and that's not good.
1:40:27
Speaker 2: And you see all those underlying metrics kind of kind
1:40:30
Speaker 2: of jumping up as well as x fIF third year
1:40:32
Speaker 2: in a row. It's it's it's increased x e ra
1:40:35
Speaker 2: fourth year in a row, and each year is just
1:40:38
Speaker 2: a slight step back, and so you can just see,
1:40:43
Speaker 2: you know, slight regression across the board for Bassett, and
1:40:46
Speaker 2: I don't see that turning around because it doesn't seem
1:40:49
Speaker 2: like there's one thing. His synker did struggle a little
1:40:52
Speaker 2: this year, but at the end of the day, it
1:40:55
Speaker 2: does just seem like he is taking a step back,
1:40:57
Speaker 2: taking a step back, taking a step back, and he's
1:41:01
Speaker 2: one really bad luckier away from just being completely lit up.
1:41:05
Speaker 2: And that's why I'm just not too intrigued with Bassett.
1:41:09
Speaker 2: And generally I have like almost a principle, I'm not
1:41:11
Speaker 2: drafting a picture that has less than a cape per inning,
1:41:14
Speaker 2: and so Bassett's not a saint in that or even
1:41:19
Speaker 2: close to it. He's trying to scrape by and make
1:41:22
Speaker 2: sure he has eight in k per nine versus a
1:41:25
Speaker 2: nine k per nine. He did a little better this year,
1:41:28
Speaker 2: but I'm generally out on a guy like this hitting
1:41:31
Speaker 2: thirty six and historically just not been able to with
1:41:35
Speaker 2: soul withhold that started workload. So I'll have to pass
1:41:40
Speaker 2: on Bassett. If you'd like to take him as your
1:41:42
Speaker 2: third fourth starter, go for it. I will not be.
1:41:45
Speaker 1: Oh no, I'm not, because I think that the projections
1:41:47
Speaker 1: will kick out something pretty similar next year, where like
1:41:50
Speaker 1: the Winds will be booing a lot of his value.
1:41:53
Speaker 1: And I thought would also just be a good kind
1:41:55
Speaker 1: of discussion point of saying, like, hey, make sure like
1:41:58
Speaker 1: when you kick those values out, whether you're using our
1:42:01
Speaker 1: auction calculator or our projections or wherever else, make sure
1:42:06
Speaker 1: you kind of tease apart the guts of what's making
1:42:09
Speaker 1: that value, because it can go a long way to
1:42:12
Speaker 1: make those kind of decisions at the draft table and
1:42:15
Speaker 1: how you're going to analyze these players. So lots of
1:42:19
Speaker 1: details that I think that we got through this year,
1:42:21
Speaker 1: but we're going to wrap it up here for this
1:42:24
Speaker 1: episode as we just went through this list of disappointments
1:42:29
Speaker 1: from twenty twenty four. For if there's anybody out there
1:42:32
Speaker 1: that you want us to analyze, certainly shoot us a
1:42:34
Speaker 1: note at cards Categories at gmail dot com or reach
1:42:38
Speaker 1: out to the pod on Twitter slash x at cards Categories.
1:42:43
Speaker 1: I do need to work on making a blue sky
1:42:46
Speaker 1: for that.
1:42:46
Speaker 2: I think I will.
1:42:47
Speaker 1: Pretty soon because Twitter is getting awful, so it's I
1:42:54
Speaker 1: hate hanging out there and I would if you want
1:42:55
Speaker 1: to hang out with the pod, I prefer to do
1:42:57
Speaker 1: it over on Blue Sky. So I will start working
1:43:00
Speaker 1: on that. I'll make a note for it. But brew
1:43:02
Speaker 1: let everybody know where they can find you and read
1:43:04
Speaker 1: your work.
1:43:05
Speaker 2: Yep, find me over on ras ball. The weekend's writing
1:43:09
Speaker 2: up your hitter profile step one hitters. The rest of
1:43:11
Speaker 2: the season, I think you will have to wait probably
1:43:14
Speaker 2: through the off season. Is we're going to be winding
1:43:16
Speaker 2: down here coming up, and so I think I've had
1:43:19
Speaker 2: my last post for the year. But we'll be back
1:43:23
Speaker 2: here later this year and early in the spring. Also
1:43:26
Speaker 2: find me over on Twitter slash x that is you
1:43:28
Speaker 2: just complimented bravely over as Jay Brewer one seven. Feel
1:43:32
Speaker 2: free to reach out interact. It will be the off season,
1:43:36
Speaker 2: so we'll probably jump a little bit more into cards.
1:43:38
Speaker 2: It is the great time on Twitter to be buying
1:43:40
Speaker 2: cars in the off season because it's football season. Everybody's
1:43:43
Speaker 2: moving on with life, so it's fun. Please reach out
1:43:46
Speaker 2: as you can coolly. Where can everybody find you?
1:43:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, just like you. I had my last piece on
1:43:51
Speaker 1: rasball run this past weekend because yeah, no reason to
1:43:54
Speaker 1: be picking up any waiver wires this weekend unless you
1:43:58
Speaker 1: have some sort of weird stipula that you're getting an
1:44:01
Speaker 1: extra week because of that Atlanta New York doubleheader on Monday,
1:44:05
Speaker 1: and that's the case, I suggest that you pick up
1:44:08
Speaker 1: braves and mets. If you want to reach out to me,
1:44:12
Speaker 1: you can find me on Twitter, slash x and blue
1:44:15
Speaker 1: Sky at mcool seven. If you're looking for any cards
1:44:19
Speaker 1: and categories merchandise, check out the link in the show notes.
1:44:24
Speaker 1: You can get t shirts, hats, find stuff there. Same
1:44:28
Speaker 1: thing with anything else we've discussed. Any sort of news
1:44:31
Speaker 1: articles or any other links, they will be in the
1:44:34
Speaker 1: show notes. And any of those player raiders that I've discussed,
1:44:37
Speaker 1: especially that historical one, because I'm going to go so
1:44:41
Speaker 1: deep into the guts of that historical player raider in
1:44:43
Speaker 1: the off season. I'm really looking forward to it. It's
1:44:45
Speaker 1: going to be a great time. Find it all at
1:44:47
Speaker 1: rasball dot com. And yeah, it's been a great week.
1:44:50
Speaker 1: We will get more into the off season next week
1:44:52
Speaker 1: with more cards and lots of playoff talk. So we
1:44:55
Speaker 1: appreciate you sticking around. And if you've enjoyed the pod
1:44:59
Speaker 1: rate review us wherever you can. Thanks everybody, take care,
1:45:02
Speaker 1: We'll see you next week,