Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Colonial Pipeline Shutdown: What Comes Next For Supply

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Colonial Pipeline Shutdown: What Comes Next For Supply · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, a lot of
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Speaker 1: commodity strategies are telling folks, particularly on the East Coast,
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Speaker 1: to get ready to pay more for gas. And it's
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Speaker 1: not just because we're going into the summer driving season.
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Speaker 1: It's because we're gonna have a supply problem. Here. Colonial
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Speaker 1: pipeline shut down and that uh pipeline supplies most of
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Speaker 1: the East Coast, and let's get the latest on that.
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Speaker 1: We're uh pleased to have Jay Hatfield. He's a founder
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Speaker 1: and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management. Jay, thanks so much
0:46
Speaker 1: for joining us here. And again, you look at the
0:49
Speaker 1: map of the Colonial pipeline and boy, it just goes
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Speaker 1: right up the Eastern seaboard, suggesting that the folks you
0:57
Speaker 1: know on the East Coast are really gonna have some
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Speaker 1: supply issues. What do you how do you think this
1:00
Speaker 1: is going to develop great, well, thanks for having me on. Well,
1:05
Speaker 1: one thing that's important to note about UM products pipelines
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Speaker 1: is that they can be transported using surface transportation. It's
1:15
Speaker 1: in other words, barges, UM rail and truck, So we
1:22
Speaker 1: would we were expecting a fairly muted response, which is
1:25
Speaker 1: what we're getting so far. So in fact, if you
1:28
Speaker 1: want to look on the terminal cr c K, you're
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Speaker 1: only seeing about a thirty five cent increase in the
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Speaker 1: gasoline crack to New York Harbor, which makes sense because
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Speaker 1: of course that can be supplied by European refineries, where
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Speaker 1: what we just block us through the crack spread? What
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Speaker 1: is that? So it's just it's the profitability of refining
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Speaker 1: oil into UM gasoline in this in this case, and
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Speaker 1: so what we're not seeing on their screens oils a
2:01
Speaker 1: little bit weak, and and our bob or the your
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Speaker 1: carber's moving up just a tiny bit. But what you
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Speaker 1: can't see on the screens is areas that UM are
2:12
Speaker 1: less liquid and there's no trading, but for instance in
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Speaker 1: Tennessee and landlocked southeastern states, So there you're likely to
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Speaker 1: get some increase, but it's going to be kepped just
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Speaker 1: by shipping or transportation cost. So other than maybe a
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Speaker 1: few cases of hoarding, we don't expect any significant shortages.
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Speaker 1: But I think it does point out the vulnerability and
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Speaker 1: of the energy infrastructure, and in particular UM. More sensitive
2:41
Speaker 1: systems are obviously electricity and to a lesser degree, natural gas,
2:45
Speaker 1: which is what you saw in superstone Urie, where when
2:49
Speaker 1: you have the electric market goes out, it tends to
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Speaker 1: shut down other things like natural gas production, whereas refined
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Speaker 1: products like as I mentioned, can be shipped using alternative methods. Jay,
3:05
Speaker 1: what do you think the issue here is, I mean,
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Speaker 1: do you have any sense for the duration of the
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Speaker 1: shutdown and is there a point where it really does
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Speaker 1: become a supply problem? Well, it's it's the key issue
3:20
Speaker 1: is UM safety. So it's the extent that the hack
3:24
Speaker 1: gets into operational software and you have explosive fuels. It's
3:29
Speaker 1: not like just bringing up a regular computer system. So
3:33
Speaker 1: it's not exactly clear how long it could go. But
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Speaker 1: again it's other than some potential for hoarding, it shouldn't
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Speaker 1: be like when the refinery shut down in a hurricane,
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Speaker 1: we have an actual supply problem. It's just a logistics issue.
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Speaker 1: So it kind of it caps the the potential shortage
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Speaker 1: by the fact that you can just move the product
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Speaker 1: from different refineries, either in the West or overseas, so
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Speaker 1: we don't really see this as kept a catastrophe, just
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Speaker 1: perha some localized shortages. I've been trying to figure out
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Speaker 1: all day in terms of the nature of the commodities market,
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Speaker 1: why can't we price in um something like a demand
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Speaker 1: shock or a production squeeze ahead of the forecast x
4:20
Speaker 1: anti so to speak. It doesn't seem like, you know,
4:23
Speaker 1: if we all knew oil was going to be at
4:25
Speaker 1: eight by the end of the year, why wouldn't it
4:27
Speaker 1: go to eighty now? Well, and what app tends to
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Speaker 1: happened with the commodity markets is they develop momentum, either
4:35
Speaker 1: downward or upward momentum. We saw the downward momentum last
4:41
Speaker 1: year and we had negative forty oil. So usually they
4:46
Speaker 1: tend tend to build and they're not going to really
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Speaker 1: have that um spike until we really see the demand. Specifically,
4:53
Speaker 1: what we're watching is Europe. So Europe is about a
4:59
Speaker 1: month find the US in terms of vaccinations, so we're
5:03
Speaker 1: really predicting global travel getton if they do catch up
5:06
Speaker 1: as we're expecting, and just the nature of commodity markets.
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Speaker 1: They don't, they don't. They're not really good at anticipation,
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Speaker 1: so it'll sort of happen when it happens. J, real quick,
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Speaker 1: thirty seconds kind of what's your call for oil here?
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Speaker 1: We've got a w T I crewed here at sixty
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Speaker 1: dollars fifty cents. Where do you think it is your
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Speaker 1: end um? We think that it'll trade in the seventy
5:29
Speaker 1: eight dollar range with the potential for a superspike. And
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Speaker 1: the real reason behind that is um where we're calling
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Speaker 1: OPEC plus plus, which is constraint of the U S producers,
5:40
Speaker 1: mostly due to the capital markets. So we think that
5:43
Speaker 1: will drive prices higher than they've been since two thousand fourteen,
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Speaker 1: because ever since two thousand fourteen, the US has been
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Speaker 1: the swing producer. But now the companies have moved to
5:53
Speaker 1: being more value type stocks, so they're not going to
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Speaker 1: ramp up production, which gives us chance for prices to
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Speaker 1: of higher. With if there is a supply disruption, not
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Speaker 1: so much just a transportation disruption, we could see, you know,
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Speaker 1: a possibility of a superspike, particularly during the summer. All right, Jay,
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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. J Hatfield there, CEO
6:15
Speaker 1: and founder of Infrastructure Capital Management. Let's get over right
6:22
Speaker 1: now to Will Ride. He's the founder and CEO of
6:25
Speaker 1: Grant Shares. They have over one and a half billion
6:28
Speaker 1: dollars of assets under management. At the end of last
6:31
Speaker 1: year they had that, and I'm sure they've been adding
6:33
Speaker 1: to them. Will. Um. It's it's a fairly striking move
6:37
Speaker 1: that I'm looking at right now in oil because, um,
6:41
Speaker 1: you know the latest stories all say oil climbs with
6:44
Speaker 1: gasolinea's cyber attack knocks out US pipeline. We know that
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Speaker 1: was the hot story of the of the weekend. But
6:52
Speaker 1: now all of a sudden, I see Brent crude and
6:55
Speaker 1: nim x w T I just coming down hard. I
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Speaker 1: mean the move is over a dollar in brand in
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Speaker 1: the last half hour along what's going on? Yeah, morning, UM.
7:07
Speaker 1: I wouldn't make too much of the use of short
7:09
Speaker 1: term moved this morning, because obviously we had a big
7:12
Speaker 1: move over the last few days. More broadly, you know
7:16
Speaker 1: this year. Um, but I think we could be reacting
7:19
Speaker 1: a little bit in terms of an over shoot over
7:21
Speaker 1: the news of the pipeline attack. Um, that we saw
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Speaker 1: you heading into into the weekend. Alright, So well, I'm
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Speaker 1: looking at my on my Bloomberg terminal g l CEO
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Speaker 1: Global commodity prices UM. I'm seeing twenty thirty increases when
7:39
Speaker 1: I look at ENTER on a year to date basis,
7:41
Speaker 1: increases when I look at energy, metals, agricultural. What are
7:46
Speaker 1: we seeing here? Is this simply, you know, just the
7:49
Speaker 1: bounce back play or is this something more structural in
7:52
Speaker 1: commodities going forward? Yeah, I mean I think it's more structural.
7:57
Speaker 1: I think that this is a new supercycle UM that
8:00
Speaker 1: has started UM but is now in sort of full
8:06
Speaker 1: blown mode here. Uh. And and the reason's kind of
8:09
Speaker 1: twofold that there's no doubt that there are some bounce
8:12
Speaker 1: back plays kind of going on here. I mean, clearly,
8:16
Speaker 1: we had, you know, a hugely depressed situation last year
8:20
Speaker 1: for commodity demand UM that is obviously coming back as
8:24
Speaker 1: the world returns to somewhat of a normal mode, but
8:28
Speaker 1: mobility basically increasing. And so we have a record highs
8:32
Speaker 1: now and copper, we have iron ore highs, we have
8:36
Speaker 1: steel prices on the rise at the all the energy
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Speaker 1: complex rising as well, and and that that's understandable because
8:43
Speaker 1: that is the same theme as we're seeing with some
8:46
Speaker 1: of the pandemic equity stocks that were badly affected last year.
8:51
Speaker 1: But I think what's less talked about is, in my
8:53
Speaker 1: mind the kind of the the bigger picture here, and
8:56
Speaker 1: that is that there's been woful underinvestment in the commodities
9:01
Speaker 1: sector for many, many years, and that's because of depressed
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Speaker 1: prices UM since the last peak of the last supercycle,
9:08
Speaker 1: you know, around two thousand and eight. So with this
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Speaker 1: under investment, this under investment is now colliding with this
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Speaker 1: huge surgeon demand, causing in my mind, a new supercycle.
9:21
Speaker 1: I think if the supercycle is not going to affect
9:23
Speaker 1: all commodities uniformly UM, but as we transition as a
9:28
Speaker 1: world to a green energy infrastructure, we're moving away from
9:32
Speaker 1: hydrocarbons and we're moving to a green energy, sustainable future
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Speaker 1: that is creating and will create supercycle in many commodities
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Speaker 1: UM that are stands benefit most from this energy transition. Well,
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Speaker 1: I mean, it's not hard to to to believe that.
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Speaker 1: And frankly, we were hearing I've heard similar things from
9:52
Speaker 1: others in the market. I was talking to Jeff Curry
9:54
Speaker 1: to day from Goldman sachs Um and I think he
9:56
Speaker 1: would agree what I don't really get is why, what's it?
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Speaker 1: What is it about the commodity market that means you
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Speaker 1: can't price in a demand shock and that kind of
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Speaker 1: under investment x anti Why why can't UM investors really
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Speaker 1: get ahead of these things? You know? Very early? Well,
10:14
Speaker 1: I think that investors can get ahead of it. I mean,
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Speaker 1: it's it's one of these things where you know, right now,
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Speaker 1: you have in my mind a very um you know,
10:24
Speaker 1: interesting phenomenal where commodities are out casting equities. So when
10:29
Speaker 1: you have commodities outperforming stocks, that's typically, at least historically,
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Speaker 1: that's a harbinger of you know, higher inflation. That's not
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Speaker 1: necessarily good news for stocks. UM. We've add an environment
10:43
Speaker 1: where commodities of underperformed equities for pretty much since the
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Speaker 1: last to the peak of two thousand and eight peak. UM.
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Speaker 1: So in my mind, this is, you know, something that
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Speaker 1: is real m for and a lot of investors hold
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Speaker 1: commodities strategically in the portfolio anyway for diversify reasons UM,
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Speaker 1: and so in this particular environment, I think people are
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Speaker 1: moving into commodities in a way that I certainly haven't
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Speaker 1: seen for a number of years to try and hedge
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Speaker 1: themselves against these inflationary risks that we're seeing. Will Ryan,
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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We always appreciate
11:17
Speaker 1: getting your thoughts. Will Ryan. He's a founder and CEO
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Speaker 1: of Grantit Shares, giving us thoughts here about commodities. You know, again,
11:24
Speaker 1: the question for a lot of folks is, uh, you know,
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Speaker 1: is this transitory? Are we seeing some of these gains
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Speaker 1: in commodity prices and therefore inflation as something that the
11:33
Speaker 1: Photo Reserve would like to argue our transitory issues maybe
11:37
Speaker 1: you know, going to the base effect where you're going
11:39
Speaker 1: off a very very easy comps. Or is there something
11:42
Speaker 1: more to this in terms of maybe as Will was
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Speaker 1: suggesting a supercycle in commodity prices which may bring some
11:50
Speaker 1: troubling inflation back into the economy. So investors across our
11:54
Speaker 1: border certainly paying attention to the commodity markets. Now, let's
11:59
Speaker 1: talk about getting access to private companies. There is a
12:05
Speaker 1: trading platform called Forge that allows investors to access private
12:09
Speaker 1: markets UH and allows shareholders and investors in privately held
12:14
Speaker 1: firms to liquidated a portion of their shares ahead of
12:16
Speaker 1: I P O S or you know, spack um combinations.
12:20
Speaker 1: Kelley Rodriguez joins us the CEO of Forge, Kelly, tell
12:24
Speaker 1: us about your company, your platform and UM what kind
12:29
Speaker 1: of growth you've seen in in this year of so
12:32
Speaker 1: much activity. Yeah, sure, thank you guys for having me
12:36
Speaker 1: on UM. This has been a very big year post
12:41
Speaker 1: peak of the pandemic. We've seen the numbers expand dramatically.
12:45
Speaker 1: We reported that we've just concluded the third record quarter
12:50
Speaker 1: in a row in terms of liquidity and volume on
12:54
Speaker 1: on Forge. I think we have also seen recently that
12:58
Speaker 1: we closed the acquisition of our large as competitor, shares Post,
13:01
Speaker 1: and that created really a central ecosystem player and Forge
13:06
Speaker 1: for anybody that wants to buy or sell UM, that
13:10
Speaker 1: wants data or who wants to custody their assets. So
13:13
Speaker 1: we're really trying to create something for the broad market,
13:17
Speaker 1: all right. Kelly talked to us about spacks. That's you know,
13:20
Speaker 1: I've been in the investment business for over thirty years
13:22
Speaker 1: and SPACs is the growth of SPACs over the past
13:24
Speaker 1: twelve eight months has really got my attention. It's just exploded.
13:27
Speaker 1: It's always kind of been out there, but it's just
13:29
Speaker 1: really exploded over the last twelve months or so. How
13:32
Speaker 1: has that impacted the liquidity event for a lot of
13:36
Speaker 1: investors who might have typically used your platform to sell
13:40
Speaker 1: stock and get some liquidity. Well, so two things. Interestingly,
13:43
Speaker 1: the spacts are creating additional liquidity on Forge. So if
13:47
Speaker 1: the company has announced such as Pioneer UH, you can
13:51
Speaker 1: find buy and sell that spacking company before it's despact
13:56
Speaker 1: on Ford. So it is bringing a hole another level
14:01
Speaker 1: of liquidity for companies that aren't as big as the
14:04
Speaker 1: previous sort of trend in pre i p O unicorns.
14:08
Speaker 1: You know, if you take a look at the companies
14:09
Speaker 1: that have been going public through direct listings or through
14:12
Speaker 1: a conventional light PIO the last couple of years, these
14:14
Speaker 1: companies are between nine and a hundred billion dollar valuation
14:18
Speaker 1: companies in the private markets about six and twenty unicorns.
14:21
Speaker 1: But the SPACs are coming out and filling a market
14:25
Speaker 1: interest in the sort of low single digit billions, and
14:29
Speaker 1: so really it just looks like UM an alternative form
14:32
Speaker 1: of going public. I do think there's been a lot
14:35
Speaker 1: of hype around this to last year, and you're gonna
14:37
Speaker 1: start to see it settled down and more of a
14:39
Speaker 1: move to quality. Would have been the most popular shares
14:43
Speaker 1: traded on your platform, I mean pre I p O
14:46
Speaker 1: you know private companies that I guess employees um have
14:52
Speaker 1: have shares in and need liquidity, so they put them
14:54
Speaker 1: out there. What do you where do you see the
14:55
Speaker 1: most action? I mean, we have about four hundred companies
14:59
Speaker 1: that have trade there on the platform, But the most
15:02
Speaker 1: action isn't a company that's a large cap private that's
15:05
Speaker 1: going to be public in the next day. So I
15:08
Speaker 1: think Talentier back in Q three we did about five
15:11
Speaker 1: hundred million dollars of Palenteer volume alone a sauna. Uh,
15:17
Speaker 1: if you look at any of the companies that have
15:19
Speaker 1: gone out Airbnb, just before they go, everybody wants a
15:24
Speaker 1: piece of that that pre I p O company because
15:27
Speaker 1: they know what's gonna be liquid it's just a matter
15:29
Speaker 1: of the next sort of six ninety days to get
15:32
Speaker 1: through their process. Ll give us a sense of how
15:35
Speaker 1: the VC and private equity world has, you know, kind
15:40
Speaker 1: of evolved over the past fourteen months as we dealt
15:42
Speaker 1: with this pandemic, because ultimately, you know, those investors come
15:45
Speaker 1: to you to get liquidity. What have you seen in
15:47
Speaker 1: terms of you know, kind of that that VC market. Well,
15:51
Speaker 1: I'm glad you're asking that question. We brought something to
15:53
Speaker 1: market a little bit earlier last quarter that was called
15:58
Speaker 1: Forge Company Solutions, and this really is meant to primarily
16:02
Speaker 1: serve and put the control back into the company and
16:07
Speaker 1: the vcs that backed them around how they're raising primary
16:11
Speaker 1: or secondary capital. And this is a really important thing
16:15
Speaker 1: because these companies are now staying private for so long
16:18
Speaker 1: the employee basis and the venture capital funds who have
16:22
Speaker 1: seven to ten year lives are extending beyond the life
16:27
Speaker 1: of their funds and beyond the vesting schedule of their employees.
16:30
Speaker 1: So they need liquidity. They need capital, uh, to last
16:35
Speaker 1: and to go ten to fifteen years. I think Palanteer
16:37
Speaker 1: was a fifteen to seventeen year old company when it
16:40
Speaker 1: finally went. So they're embracing this because look, it's an
16:43
Speaker 1: employee benefit. You're gonna work for a company for ten
16:46
Speaker 1: years privately, and you need liquidity to pay for a
16:49
Speaker 1: house or send your kids to college. I think Forge
16:52
Speaker 1: is the platform that puts that company in that DC
16:54
Speaker 1: in control to manage that. So, um, when you look
17:01
Speaker 1: at the public markets, Um, what difference do you think
17:06
Speaker 1: of Forge makes in terms of the way the public
17:08
Speaker 1: markets then evolve. Well, it's interesting, there's some definite blurring
17:14
Speaker 1: of the lines in the last few years of a
17:16
Speaker 1: company can stay private longer and raise the kind of
17:19
Speaker 1: capital that you're seeing now happening. You're sitting rounds in
17:23
Speaker 1: the several hundred million rounds that are the size of
17:26
Speaker 1: what an I t O used to look like ten
17:28
Speaker 1: fifteen years ago. A company can stay private longer and
17:33
Speaker 1: really set a different path in terms of strategic investing
17:38
Speaker 1: longer term value. And so the dynamic of being public
17:42
Speaker 1: really creates a different shorter term quarterly dynamic around the
17:46
Speaker 1: shareholding UH and the objectives of the company. And many
17:50
Speaker 1: managers and CEOs of private companies, myself included, want to
17:54
Speaker 1: have the ability to invest long term, and if you've
17:58
Speaker 1: got capital available to you in the private markets, you're
18:00
Speaker 1: gonna stay private longer. Kelly Rodriguez, thank you so much
18:03
Speaker 1: for joining us. We always appreciate chattingthew Kelly Rodriguez, he's
18:07
Speaker 1: a CEO of FOURD You giving a sense of how
18:10
Speaker 1: you know, in private investors are looking for liquidity, and
18:13
Speaker 1: some of these venture backed and private equity backed firms,
18:16
Speaker 1: as they wait longer and longer to go public, they're
18:20
Speaker 1: able to trade their shares or private chairs on the
18:23
Speaker 1: private market and Forge does that. This is Bloomberg. Now
18:30
Speaker 1: I want to bring in George Bailey right now. He's
18:32
Speaker 1: a portfolio manager of I G Credit at Aviva Investors.
18:36
Speaker 1: And George, let's let's start just by talking about the issuance.
18:40
Speaker 1: It's been insane. I think I read a little bit
18:42
Speaker 1: earlier that issuance at this point in the year is
18:46
Speaker 1: the second highest we've seen it since two thousand ten.
18:50
Speaker 1: Um Is this just companies that want to get out
18:52
Speaker 1: and get some money in the low rate environment? Do
18:54
Speaker 1: they see it rising soon? Yeah? I think that is
18:59
Speaker 1: a big pot of I mean, we're twenty seventh cent
19:02
Speaker 1: behind the place we saw last year, but yeah, you're right,
19:06
Speaker 1: if you go back to previous years, we're about almost
19:09
Speaker 1: ahead of the ten pace. So I think that is
19:13
Speaker 1: a big part of it. If if you're a corporation
19:15
Speaker 1: and you expect high yields going forward, it makes sense.
19:19
Speaker 1: Just the issue debt today, especially if you're trying to refinance,
19:22
Speaker 1: trying to end debt rolling off and an issue longer
19:25
Speaker 1: term debt, that just makes more sense. George, What do
19:28
Speaker 1: you make of it when a company like Amazon announces
19:32
Speaker 1: a bond offering today and we don't know the amount yet,
19:35
Speaker 1: that's not been disclosed, but you know they've got a
19:37
Speaker 1: jillion dollars of cash on the bounty. They spew incredible
19:41
Speaker 1: amounts of free cash flow. They have no real use
19:44
Speaker 1: for the proceeds. What's it tell you when and Amazon
19:47
Speaker 1: dot Com comes to your market. We've seen a few
19:51
Speaker 1: deals this year and even last year actually after the
19:55
Speaker 1: you know, after the pandemic in sort of April May
19:57
Speaker 1: sort of time, um where you do see a big
20:00
Speaker 1: corporations that don't necessarily need to issue debt. They have
20:03
Speaker 1: the cash on their balance sheet, but they do it because,
20:06
Speaker 1: like you said, it's just cheap financing for them. Um.
20:09
Speaker 1: So if they can raise the money via the debt markets,
20:11
Speaker 1: then it just makes sense and have that cash as
20:13
Speaker 1: a buffer on the balance sheet. Now no, now that
20:16
Speaker 1: being said, that is part of what we're looking at.
20:19
Speaker 1: So when they issue debt and you raise cash in
20:22
Speaker 1: your balance sheet, it's it's as a credit investor, you're
20:24
Speaker 1: really asking what are they doing with that cash? Are
20:27
Speaker 1: they giving it back to the shareholders? Are they engaging
20:29
Speaker 1: the m and A? So really that is the focus
20:32
Speaker 1: going forward. What are you doing as a credit investor?
20:35
Speaker 1: I mean, what what moves can you make right now
20:38
Speaker 1: with fresh money? Can you can you find value out
20:40
Speaker 1: there or can you only hope to I guess preserve
20:44
Speaker 1: your capital. Yeah, evaluation doesn't matter what asset class. Year.
20:50
Speaker 1: In a moment, it seems evaluations are tough to come by.
20:53
Speaker 1: There are pockets of investment grade we like, so banking
20:57
Speaker 1: in particular, they've just got done a lot of supply
21:00
Speaker 1: and we've got that out of the way, so so
21:02
Speaker 1: that's nice. And also telecom to so with those big
21:05
Speaker 1: supply overhangs out the way, we do see value their
21:07
Speaker 1: further out the curve um. But yeah, also in high
21:10
Speaker 1: yield aswell. If you look at triple bees, so the
21:13
Speaker 1: lower part of investment great quality versus say double bees,
21:17
Speaker 1: the higher quality part of the high yield market, we
21:20
Speaker 1: do see value there in the front. And where you're
21:23
Speaker 1: you're picking yield, is it's worth it for a similar
21:25
Speaker 1: risk profile, similar fundamentals, just dipping down into that high
21:29
Speaker 1: yield space. George talked to us about credit quality. Here.
21:32
Speaker 1: We're fourteen months into this pandemic and the economic shock
21:36
Speaker 1: that it it caused. Are you seeing material deterioration in
21:40
Speaker 1: certain parts of the portfolio. Not really. The fundamentals are
21:46
Speaker 1: holding up, and I think that will be the case
21:48
Speaker 1: going forward, at least over the near future, while the
21:51
Speaker 1: macro backdrop remains strong. Um So, while we have all
21:54
Speaker 1: the doubst duo with yelling and power and then just
21:58
Speaker 1: the macro factors coming through. We have a few prints
22:00
Speaker 1: coming this week with retail sales and other points. I
22:04
Speaker 1: think if if the macro back that it should just
22:06
Speaker 1: stay strong. I don't think we'll see many cracks in
22:09
Speaker 1: the fundamentals. The other big part of it as well
22:12
Speaker 1: as the markets will just remain open. I mean what
22:14
Speaker 1: you've been talking about, their just the amount of supply
22:16
Speaker 1: we've seen this year. If the markets remain open and
22:19
Speaker 1: corporations can do that, then that really just keeps the
22:22
Speaker 1: fundamentals strong. So it's no really cracks to speak of
22:25
Speaker 1: our moment. And default rates also remain pretty manageable. I
22:29
Speaker 1: guess visibility is good as long as vaccinations continue to increase, right,
22:35
Speaker 1: that's got to be the key, the keystone of the
22:39
Speaker 1: economic recovering. Yeah, and we've seen a lot of credit
22:43
Speaker 1: strategists points of those sort of data points. Now, it's
22:46
Speaker 1: not it's not just looking at the fundamentals or corporations.
22:49
Speaker 1: It's okay, let's look at the vaccine rollout, let's look
22:52
Speaker 1: at the cases, let's look at hospital beds. Um. So
22:55
Speaker 1: it's all different data points now, isn't just the fundamentals
22:58
Speaker 1: of a corporation? All right, George? The FED has signaled
23:03
Speaker 1: lower for longer, yet there are some inflation pressures. What
23:07
Speaker 1: are you baking into your base cases to the FEDS moves. Yeah,
23:13
Speaker 1: We're started to see that come through a bit in
23:15
Speaker 1: the data, these inflationary pressure pressures. And you only need
23:17
Speaker 1: to look at the commodity prices over the last six
23:20
Speaker 1: months or so, they've doubled, two quadrupled in some places.
23:24
Speaker 1: We've seen that come through there, and then we started
23:26
Speaker 1: to see it a bit on Friday's non farm payrolls report,
23:30
Speaker 1: some wage inflation coming through. So yeah, it's definitely a concern.
23:34
Speaker 1: I think if it stays around sort of the three
23:37
Speaker 1: percent level where the FED wants to see inflation growth
23:40
Speaker 1: but not know out of hand, UM, I think that
23:42
Speaker 1: is good for just global growth, and we could see
23:45
Speaker 1: yields move a bit higher. Um. But I think we
23:48
Speaker 1: need to just look at some more data points and
23:49
Speaker 1: going forward to see if this really is trans transitory
23:52
Speaker 1: or or whether it could just be more sustained. George,
23:56
Speaker 1: I wonder you're a cf A. How much harder do
24:00
Speaker 1: you think it is to get now than when when
24:01
Speaker 1: Paul took the test? Well, it's much harder back then,
24:06
Speaker 1: you know, of course, Yeah, we had to go we
24:10
Speaker 1: had to go walk uphill both ways to get to
24:12
Speaker 1: the to the testing site. Uh. And aren't they making
24:14
Speaker 1: it more difficult now? I don't know. I don't know
24:17
Speaker 1: if they are. Um, it's certainly it's going all digital.
24:19
Speaker 1: I know that that that that's the big change. So
24:21
Speaker 1: making changing with the times. George Bailey, thanks so much
24:24
Speaker 1: for joining us there. George Bailey, he's a portfolio manager
24:27
Speaker 1: covering the investment grade market for Aviva Investors, getting his
24:31
Speaker 1: thoughts on these markets here. Credit quality holding in their
24:35
Speaker 1: fundamentals remain solid. The FED remains on the sideline to
24:39
Speaker 1: search is four yield. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening
24:43
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