Latest / The President's Daily Brief / PDB Afternoon Bulletin | September 1st, 2026: Putin Fears for His Future & China’s Cargo Ship Spies

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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | September 1st, 2026: Putin Fears for His Future & China’s Cargo Ship Spies · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:11
  It's Tuesday,
• 0:12
  the first of September.
• 0:13
  Look at that,
• 0:14
  a brand new month.
• 0:15
  Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 0:18
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:18
  your eyes and ears
• 0:20
  on the world stage.
• 0:21
  Alright,
• 0:22
  let's get briefed.
• 0:23
  First up,
• 0:24
  reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin,
• 0:26
  you remember him,
• 0:27
  well,
• 0:28
  apparently he fears a failed end to the war
• 0:30
  could threaten his grip on power and his life,
• 0:33
  as signs grow that Moscow is preparing to escalate.
• 0:37
  Later in the show,
• 0:38
  a new report says Chinese commercial ships
• 0:40
  may be doubling as intelligence platforms.
• 0:43
  What?
• 0:44
  Spying on military communications near the US.
• 0:46
  Well,
• 0:47
  that is shocking,
• 0:48
  and by that I mean,
• 0:49
  there's absolutely nothing shocking about it.
• 0:52
  But first,
• 0:52
  today's afternoon spotlight.
• 0:54
  Nearly 5 years into the war in Ukraine,
• 0:56
  Vladimir Putin may be confronting a problem that goes
• 0:59
  well beyond the battlefield.
• 1:01
  How to end the war.
• 1:03
  Without making himself look like a loser.
• 1:05
  That's the focus of a new report from The Economist,
• 1:08
  which describes growing frustration among
• 1:10
  Russia's political and economic elite.
• 1:12
  And the Kremlin increasingly worried that neither the status quo,
• 1:16
  which of course isn't quo,
• 1:17
  nor a negotiated end to the war,
• 1:19
  offers Putin an acceptable way out.
• 1:22
  One source close to Putin told the magazine that
• 1:24
  at some point during the war,
• 1:26
  the Russian president even told people around him,
• 1:28
  quote,
• 1:28
  they will hang me.
• 1:30
  Now,
• 1:30
  that concern of his is fairly easy to understand.
• 1:34
  Russia has now spent nearly 5 years fighting a war
• 1:37
  that was supposed to demonstrate the country's military power and
• 1:41
  expand the motherland,
• 1:42
  but Putin still hasn't achieved even his minimum territorial objective,
• 1:47
  capturing all of the Donbass.
• 1:49
  And according to people inside Russia's elite,
• 1:51
  the amount of time already spent fighting
• 1:53
  is becoming a problem in its own right.
• 1:56
  One source told the Economist that
• 1:57
  the biggest concern is no longer simply Russia's economy
• 2:00
  or the lack of a decisive military breakthrough.
• 2:03
  It's the fact that nearly 5 years have
• 2:05
  been spent pursuing something resembling a victory.
• 2:09
  Whatever the eventual outcome,
• 2:10
  the source said,
• 2:11
  that much time without a win
• 2:13
  increasingly looks like a failure.
• 2:15
  Another member of Russia's elite told the magazine
• 2:17
  there is a growing feeling that quote,
• 2:19
  the czar is naked.
• 2:21
  Hm,
• 2:21
  well,
• 2:21
  that's
• 2:22
  not a visual that anybody needed.
• 2:24
  Now,
• 2:24
  we should be careful not to overstate what this means.
• 2:27
  There's no indication.
• 2:28
  that Putin is about to lose control of Russia.
• 2:30
  He still commands a vast security and intelligence apparatus.
• 2:34
  His government continues to suppress organized opposition,
• 2:37
  and Russia still has enough money and weapons and manpower to keep fighting.
• 2:42
  Public opinion is also more complicated
• 2:44
  than simply saying Russians have turned against the war.
• 2:48
  Recent polling from the Independent Levada
• 2:49
  Center found that a majority of Russians
• 2:52
  favor beginning peace negotiations,
• 2:55
  but the same polling
• 2:56
  also shows strong resistance to making concessions to Ukraine or the West.
• 3:02
  In other words,
• 3:03
  a growing number of Russians appear to want the war over,
• 3:06
  but many still want it to end on terms that
• 3:08
  look like a Russian victory.
• 3:10
  And that leaves Putin with a difficult situation,
• 3:13
  or as they say in Russian,
• 3:14
  it's a conundrum.
• 3:16
  Ending the war without achieving his stated goals
• 3:18
  risks exposing just how much Russia has sacrificed
• 3:21
  for relatively limited gains.
• 3:23
  But continuing indefinitely,
• 3:25
  well,
• 3:25
  that carries its own costs.
• 3:28
  The Russian economy is slowing.
• 3:30
  Ukrainian drones have repeatedly struck refineries and
• 3:33
  other infrastructure deep inside the country.
• 3:35
  Moscow continues burning through soldiers at a staggering rate.
• 3:39
  And every additional month of war consumes more money
• 3:42
  and political capital.
• 3:44
  As one source told the Economist,
• 3:45
  simply allowing events to continue on their current course
• 3:49
  is increasingly disadvantageous to the Kremlin,
• 3:51
  which
• 3:52
  brings us to another possibility,
• 3:54
  and one that we've been tracking closely here on the PDB,
• 3:57
  and that would be
• 3:58
  escalation.
• 4:00
  For weeks we've been watching signs that Moscow may
• 4:02
  be preparing to dramatically increase the pressure on Ukraine.
• 4:05
  And potentially on the Western countries supporting it.
• 4:08
  The Economist now reports that sources close to
• 4:10
  the Kremlin believe Putin spent much of the summer
• 4:13
  weighing his options and has decided that escalation offers the best chance of
• 4:18
  breaking the current stalemate.
• 4:20
  That could begin with manpower.
• 4:22
  According to the magazine,
• 4:23
  Russian sources believe Putin may seek to put
• 4:25
  another 300 to 400,000 men into the war.
• 4:29
  Now,
• 4:29
  that wouldn't necessarily mean another nationwide mobilization like the one that
• 4:34
  Putin ordered in 2022 and was so unpopular with his population.
• 4:38
  Instead,
• 4:38
  regional governments could face increasing
• 4:40
  pressure to find recruits themselves,
• 4:42
  using
• 4:43
  bigger financial incentives,
• 4:44
  aggressive recruitment campaigns,
• 4:46
  and
• 4:46
  in some cases,
• 4:47
  coercion.
• 4:48
  There are already signs that Russia's manpower
• 4:51
  problem is getting harder to manage.
• 4:53
  Western officials recently estimated
• 4:55
  that Moscow is losing roughly 6000 more troops every month
• 4:59
  than it's able to replace.
• 5:01
  And then there's the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• 5:05
  Russia's Defense Ministry announced over the
• 5:06
  weekend that it is preparing massive strikes
• 5:09
  against Ukrainian energy facilities.
• 5:12
  That raises the prospect,
• 5:13
  of course,
• 5:13
  of another sustained campaign against Ukraine's electrical grid
• 5:17
  heading into the colder months,
• 5:18
  an effort
• 5:19
  designed not only to weaken the country's economy,
• 5:21
  but
• 5:22
  also of course to increase pressure on the civilian population.
• 5:26
  And the potential escalation may not stop at Ukraine's borders.
• 5:30
  The Economist reports that Western intelligence services
• 5:33
  believe Russia could intensify its campaign
• 5:35
  of sabotage against Ukraine's European allies.
• 5:39
  Possible targets reportedly include factories
• 5:41
  producing military equipment for Ukraine,
• 5:44
  along with the transportation and logistics networks used
• 5:47
  to move Western weapons toward the front.
• 5:49
  While Western officials do not believe that Putin is
• 5:52
  looking for a direct military confrontation with NATO.
• 5:55
  That still leaves plenty of room for
• 5:58
  operations below the threshold of open warfare,
• 6:01
  cyber attacks,
• 6:02
  sabotage,
• 6:03
  arson,
• 6:03
  covert action,
• 6:04
  and other forms of hybrid warfare.
• 6:07
  Again,
• 6:07
  that's a story that we've been tracking here on the PDB
• 6:10
  as suspicious incidents and alleged Russian
• 6:13
  operations have spread across Europe.
• 6:16
  The key takeaway from the economist's reporting is that growing pressure on Putin
• 6:20
  does not necessarily mean he becomes more willing
• 6:23
  to compromise.
• 6:24
  If Putin believes that ending this war without a
• 6:26
  recognizable victory would threaten the image of strength on
• 6:30
  which his rule depends,
• 6:32
  then simply cutting his losses becomes much more difficult.
• 6:35
  And if maintaining the status quo is
• 6:37
  slowly draining Russia's resources without producing victory,
• 6:41
  That option becomes obviously less attractive as well,
• 6:44
  which leaves escalation as the
• 6:47
  remaining viable option,
• 6:49
  not because it guarantees Putin a victory,
• 6:51
  but because from where he sits,
• 6:54
  he may well believe that
• 6:55
  the alternatives are far worse.
• 6:58
  All right.
• 6:58
  Coming up next,
• 6:59
  in today's edition of
• 7:01
  what the Chinese Communist Party is doing that shouldn't surprise anyone,
• 7:04
  Chinese cargo ships may be carrying sophisticated spy equipment
• 7:08
  designed to intercept military communications near US waters.
• 7:12
  I'll be right back.
• 7:14
  Hey,
• 7:14
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• 7:15
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• 9:11
  Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 9:14
  There's a new warning from the Trump administration that
• 9:16
  could change how you think about Chinese cargo ships.
• 9:19
  OK,
• 9:20
  I know.
• 9:21
  To be fair,
• 9:21
  in today's busy world,
• 9:23
  you probably spend precious little time thinking about Chinese cargo ships.
• 9:27
  But just in case you do,
• 9:29
  US officials say some
• 9:31
  are carrying equipment designed to spy on military communications.
• 9:34
  Near American shores.
• 9:36
  Honestly,
• 9:37
  the details come from an exclusive new report by Reuters
• 9:40
  in which two senior Trump administration officials
• 9:42
  who spoke on the condition of anonymity,
• 9:45
  well,
• 9:45
  because they're not authorized to open their pieholes,
• 9:48
  describe what they say is a decades-long intelligence collection partnership
• 9:51
  between China's state-owned shipping giant Costco.
• 9:55
  And Beijing.
• 9:56
  Now,
• 9:56
  as an aside,
• 9:57
  and for clarity,
• 9:58
  the Chinese shipping giant is Costco,
• 10:00
  C O S C O,
• 10:02
  not Costco,
• 10:03
  the big box store where you
• 10:05
  go to buy pallets of stuff that you don't really need,
• 10:07
  but,
• 10:08
  but that you can't resist.
• 10:09
  Here's how that relationship allegedly works.
• 10:12
  The Trump officials say
• 10:13
  some Costco vessels
• 10:15
  are essentially doubling as intelligence collection platforms as
• 10:18
  they sail near the coastlines of target countries,
• 10:20
  including the US.
• 10:22
  Now,
• 10:22
  the two officials wouldn't spell out what equipment is hidden aboard those ships,
• 10:26
  perhaps because they don't know,
• 10:27
  but they did make one thing clear,
• 10:29
  this is not ordinary communications hardware.
• 10:32
  They described the gear as
• 10:33
  sophisticated signals intelligence collection platforms
• 10:36
  capable of gathering communication signals from ships
• 10:39
  and aircraft operating across North America,
• 10:42
  Europe,
• 10:42
  and Asia.
• 10:44
  One official says China is specifically looking for information
• 10:47
  about military communications technologies and encryption developments.
• 10:52
  So,
• 10:52
  you have what outwardly appears to be a Chinese commercial cargo ship
• 10:56
  moving through the same waters it normally would,
• 10:59
  except officials within the Trump administration
• 11:01
  say equipment hidden aboard that ship
• 11:03
  is listening to and tracking for military signals as it goes.
• 11:08
  Now,
• 11:08
  here's where the sheer size of the Chinese shipping company comes into play.
• 11:12
  It's one of the largest shipping companies in the
• 11:14
  world and one of the biggest global shippers,
• 11:16
  calling it US ports.
• 11:18
  Costco even has several terminal service joint ventures
• 11:22
  for container ships at
• 11:23
  courts here in the US.
• 11:24
  Well,
• 11:25
  that is convenient.
• 11:26
  Now these allegations have not just surfaced today.
• 11:29
  In January of 2025,
• 11:31
  the Pentagon placed the company,
• 11:33
  Costco,
• 11:33
  again,
• 11:34
  not the big box store,
• 11:35
  on its list of companies linked to China's military.
• 11:38
  Then in April of 2025,
• 11:40
  a US Naval War College report found it
• 11:43
  was likely that China's People's Liberation Army,
• 11:46
  the PLA,
• 11:47
  was harnessing the country's commercial shipping and
• 11:49
  fishing fleets for intelligence and surveillance.
• 11:52
  You know,
• 11:52
  that seems fairly obvious.
• 11:54
  I hope they didn't pay a lot for that report.
• 11:55
  And there's another important piece of context here.
• 11:58
  Chinese law requires the country's companies
• 12:00
  to support government intelligence work when called upon or when told to.
• 12:05
  Beijing,
• 12:05
  however,
• 12:05
  is flatly denying the entire thing.
• 12:08
  Yet another piece of shocking information in this report.
• 12:11
  China's embassy in Washington insists,
• 12:13
  quote,
• 12:13
  we oppose vilifying China
• 12:16
  by peddling the so-called
• 12:17
  intelligence collection narrative,
• 12:20
  which is totally baseless,
• 12:22
  end quote.
• 12:23
  The spokesman then
• 12:24
  guffawed,
• 12:25
  slapped his knee,
• 12:26
  and
• 12:26
  walked off with a wink to the press corps.
• 12:29
  Now,
• 12:29
  regardless of Beijing's claims of innocence,
• 12:31
  which seemed really plausible,
• 12:33
  this allegation is landing at a particularly
• 12:35
  sensitive moment in the US-China relationship.
• 12:38
  President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are
• 12:40
  expected to meet in Washington later this month,
• 12:43
  with trade and security among the major issues hanging over those talks.
• 12:47
  Costco was already caught up in
• 12:49
  Trump's economic pressure campaign against Beijing.
• 12:52
  His administration had planned billions of dollars
• 12:54
  in port fees on Chinese shipping companies,
• 12:57
  including Costco.
• 12:58
  Before pausing that effort last October when the two sides
• 13:02
  reached a temporary agreement to ease tensions,
• 13:05
  that agreement
• 13:06
  is set to expire in November.
• 13:08
  And that,
• 13:08
  my friends,
• 13:09
  is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday,
• 13:11
  the 1st of September.
• 13:13
  Now,
• 13:13
  if you have any questions or comments,
• 13:14
  please reach out to me at PDB@hefirsttv.com.
• 13:18
  And to listen to the show ad-free,
• 13:20
  you can do that,
• 13:20
  you know,
• 13:20
  it's very simple.
• 13:21
  Just become a premium member
• 13:23
  of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDBpremium.com.
• 13:27
  I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow.
• 13:29
  Until then,
• 13:30
  stay informed,
• 13:31
  stay safe,
• 13:32
  stay cool.
• 13:44
  Hey,
• 13:44
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• 13:45
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