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Don't get too excited about some recent economic data · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike and Tucker with you here, and we've got
1:15
a market that can't make up its mind where it
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wants to go. The Dow is down one hundred and
1:20
seventy three points, the S and P is down ten.
1:23
The Nasdaq, though, is up fifty three. So again kind
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of just chopping around now after you know, a day
1:28
of excitement where we fell a couple percentage points to
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start the week. The ten year US Treasury is down
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one base no, it's one, down one tenth of a
1:39
basis point now. Uh and is sitting at three point
1:42
seven six seven percent. Oil West Texas Intermediate is up
1:47
a dollar thirty two barrel to seventy dollars and fifty
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two cents. The triple A national averageur gas price is
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continuing to slide, though, down another nine tenths of ascent
1:55
overnight to three point thirty and eight tenths of ascent.
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Nice to see getting down into the low threes as
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opposed to the mid threes where we spent most of
2:03
the summer, and gold we've got up fourteen dollars and
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twenty cents announce right now to twenty five one hundred
2:12
forty dollars and twenty cents.
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Speaker 3: Tomorrow we have the jobs report coming out Chuck at
2:17
eight thirty, and I guess I'm just wondering, are we
2:20
finally back to the point where bad news is bad
2:23
news again?
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Speaker 2: Not necessarily right, I do really wonder.
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Speaker 3: I mean to me, if you see the unemployment right
2:29
jump to four and a half percent, I'm very concerned
2:32
about imminent recession. But I'm also pretty sure the Fed
2:35
might do a fifty bit cut in that case.
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Speaker 2: There are three possibilities here tomorrow. The first is that
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you get bad news and it's viewed as bad news,
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in which case the market pops is the technical term.
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The second is that the market views bad news is
2:49
good news because of what you just outlined, and the
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market says, oh, well, the Feder'll rescue us and we'll
2:54
be fine. The third is that good news is viewed
2:57
as good news and the market rallies on that. There
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is no scenario in which good news is viewed as
3:03
bad news, because the only way it would be is
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if inflation. We're still a question and there is literally
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nothing out there right now that is pointing towards renewed
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inflationary pressures at this point, yeah, one would think, no.
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Speaker 3: That find me a data point right now. That's like,
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I'm not matifation. I'm talking about how markets react to it.
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Speaker 2: So, having said all that, if we get good news tomorrow,
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the market is gonna sell off now, right.
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Speaker 3: Because that's the only scenario that check didn't cover. So
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this is where this is where we are.
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Speaker 2: Uh. There's a piece in the bloomy Berg today. It's
3:36
titled cheering the yield curve not so Fast. And here
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is what happened to yesterday. The yield curve it uninverted, Micael,
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who cares? What does that mean? What it means is
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that the yield curve is no longer upside down? Okay,
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what does that mean? It means that I'm trying to
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draw this out as much as possible. Uh. The two
3:55
year Treasury rate for a very brief period of time
3:58
went back below the ten year TIS rates Okay, which
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is where it normally is during a typical market environment.
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Speaker 3: Logically makes sense if I'm going to loan somebody money
4:07
for two years, I would expect a lower interest rate
4:10
than if I were to loan some of that same
4:12
person money for ten years.
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Speaker 2: It's been inverted for the last couple of years now,
4:16
largely because the FED had to hike interest rates in
4:19
order to get inflation down, or try to get inflation down.
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Speaker 3: Which was historically fairly reliable recession indicator. When that yield
4:26
curve becomes inverted, recession to come. That's one of the
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ones that people talked about for a long period of time.
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Had some false positives, so not always reliable, but was
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and logically kind of makes sense, right, if you're so
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concerned about what's going to happen in the short term,
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then you might be willing to give up return to have,
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you know, guaranteed results for the long term, which is
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kind of what you have when you have an inverted
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yield curve. You're saying, now, I don't want the higher
4:49
payment in two years, I'd rather take the lower payment
4:52
for ten.
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Speaker 2: So, with the yield curve uninverting again very briefly yesterday,
4:57
today we're back to being oh so slightly inverted. The
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two year treasury is at three point seven eighty five,
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ten years at three point seven six eight, so there's
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a point zero one nine percent divergence between them. At
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the moment, still you know, slightly inverted. But the question is, okay,
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what does this mean? And unfortunately, in this case there
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are fewer false positives because typically the uninversion of the
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yield curve is a much more reliable predictor of impending
5:33
recession that also tends to happen much closer from a
5:37
time period standpoint.
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Speaker 3: So what we are seeing right now, your point would
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be what we are seeing right now has reliably in
5:44
fact called recessions more often where you have an inversion
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and then it's slowly more reliably.
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Speaker 2: Yes, it's still not something where you like set it in,
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forget it in a bank on it, because there's nothing
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like that in economics. It's it's not how it works.
5:58
It's not physics. If you go and look at the
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data and Brent Donnelly pulled this data for me, well
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you didn't pull it for me. He published it and
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sent check a text. It did not get a text. Instead,
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what you end up seeing is that for all of
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the recessions dating back to looks like nineteen seventy eight.
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I guess that's the data point the data period that
6:24
he looked at. You pretty much ended up with recession
6:29
within six months or so, if not if not already
6:33
being in recession, with basically three false positives. One in
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nineteen ninety eight, which was when long term capital management
6:41
blew up, and the US did not in a recession
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for two years. Two false signals in two thousand and six.
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The US did not inter recession for two years there
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as well, and other than that, it's basically been less
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than six months and recessions started oy. Again, there are
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false positives here, well, there are more unfalse positives true
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positives as they're typically referred to, So it's it's something
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to be aware of other things that you need to
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pay attention to. Though on this first recession does not
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inherently mean that stocks lose value over the course of
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said recession. There are a number of documented recessions where
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during the course of the recession the S and P
7:25
five hundred actually went up, so it doesn't simply mean
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sell everything and go away. In some cases it does,
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in some cases it doesn't. Next, the depth of the
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recession does not predict how badly the market is impacted.
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The two thousand and one recession fairly mild in the
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broad scheme of things. Stocks got absolutely hammered because.
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Speaker 3: They were valued through the roof, and the length of
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time it took for them to recover was especially.
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Speaker 2: Took decade, and so like the NASDAK didn't take like
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fourteen years to recover back to where it was. So again,
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the depth of recession does not equate to how badly
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stocks do or how long it takes them to recover.
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All of this is a fancy way of saying, even
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if you knew that recession was coming, knowing the right
8:13
buttons to push in exactly when to push them is
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a really complicated task, and most of us are not
8:20
equipped to do that.
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Speaker 3: But you know why this all matters as a reminder.
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When you are investing in the stock market, what you
8:27
are buying is the future earnings of publicly traded corporations,
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and there's a price for that. Today that price is
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pretty historically high in the twenties, meaning you're paying twenty
8:38
plus times the future predicted profits of corporations in the
8:42
United States for owning those companies. And the problem with
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recession is that usually two of those things change, one
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the price that people are willing to pay and to
8:56
the earnings that those companies are.
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Speaker 2: Generating, yes, and they both changed negatively typically yes. So
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this is where we stand today. Again, every investor is different. Again,
9:08
most of you listening like you've lived through recessions. Again,
9:12
there have been six since nineteen seventy eight. So if
9:16
you haven't lived through one, you literally had to have
9:18
been born three years ago. Yeah, you know, my one
9:21
year old has not lived through a recession. Four year
9:24
old has no no even there, born too late in
9:29
the year. So in any case, as you you know,
9:33
go through this. Remember when when you look at the
9:36
historical performance of equity markets, they don't take out the
9:41
recessions and say, hey, here's how we did otherwise. No,
9:45
like all that historical performance includes recessions. It includes the
9:50
bad times as well. And if you're not comfortable with
9:54
something that you own, you know as an equity holding,
9:57
going down in value, you got to rethink flash, you
10:02
got to rethink your ability to actually own equities, because
10:05
equities do go down. Sometimes, sometimes they stay down. Sometimes
10:11
sometimes you have a company, even like the best companies Amazon.
10:16
This is one that I ask people like an awful lot,
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because I think it's a really great example. Here. Imagine
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that you're an Amazon stockholder back, you know, right before
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the tech bubble, and you say, look this Bezos guy, Man,
10:29
I really believe in him. He seems like a smart dude.
10:32
He's got having beat up Old Civic, he's got a
10:34
great haircut, Like I like everything about this dude. This
10:38
is gonna be the guy that this is gonna be
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the guy. And then Amazon stock proceeds over the course
10:45
of you know, early two thousand through mid two thousand
10:48
and one to lose ninety five percent of its value. Oops,
10:53
are you the guy that sits there and says, no,
10:55
I'm still believing in it after that? Because even the
10:58
best companies like this, Is there any denying that Amazon
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is one of the best companies in the world today,
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it's kind of hard to kind of hard to deny that. Yep,
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they fell flat on their face and were down, Like
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if you had one hundred dollars invested in it went
11:16
down to ten. Are you really sticking with it? It's
11:19
tough for a lot of us to do that, but
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that's what stocks can do. They get absolutely crushed. Sometimes
11:24
they continue and lose the rest. Yeah, sometimes this sea
11:27
is toyest. Sometimes you buy a pets dot Com instead
11:29
of an Amazon dot com and you're like, why didn't
11:31
I buy the other dot com? M I don't know,
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I don't know.
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12:09
Speaker 2: Fascinating data from the Energy Information Administration and Federal Highway
12:14
Administration that is published in a Bloomberg piece today, and
12:19
the basic premise is this, if you look at Americans
12:24
over the last thirty years, right now, we're driving about
12:27
thirty five percent more miles than we were back in
12:31
ninety five. Okay. On the other hand, excuse me one second,
12:38
the essue thank you. The gasoline that we consume is
12:44
only fifteen percent higher than nineteen ninety five, so there's
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been a divergence in miles driven versus gasoline consumption, as you.
12:50
Speaker 3: Would explore fuel efficiency and electric cars. All sorts of
12:54
stuff makes sense here, correct.
12:56
Speaker 2: The really interesting thing is since the twenty eighteen through
12:59
twenty twenty peer vehicle miles have still increased, We're now
13:03
at a new peak for vehicle miles traveled, gasoline consumption
13:07
down four percent from that peak. That is the interesting piece.
13:11
Speaker 3: The last three years twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two,
13:15
even twenty twenty three, to some degree I could discount
13:18
some people still were not traveling. We are now again
13:22
much higher on the miles travel than finally hitting this
13:26
uh seeming perhaps actual peak in domestic gasoline demand.
13:32
Speaker 2: Could this reverse?
13:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I could see it reversing at some
13:34
point if we really really get a year where the
13:37
economy is chugging along and people are hitting the road
13:39
even more.
13:41
Speaker 2: But I mean we're already there right.
13:43
Speaker 3: Miles traveled is up again compared to twenty eighteen, gasoline
13:47
consumption down, and this does add up with more and
13:51
more hybrid vehicles, with more and more evs hitting the road.
13:54
I know that we live in a unique part of
13:56
the country here in the Northeast, but not a day
13:59
goes by that I don't see several electric vehicles. Most
14:03
people don't live in the Northeast, right, agreed, Like I
14:06
know that this is different in Texas, but the adoption
14:13
of electric and hybrid vehicles, while slower than Ford and
14:16
GM and all the carmakers would have thought a few
14:20
years ago, is making a significant dent on gasoline demand,
14:24
which is not exactly a catastrophic scenario for the big
14:28
oil companies, but is a shift from something that's been Yeah,
14:31
we've been talking about peak oil demand for years, decades,
14:36
and we may, at least in the United States have
14:39
hit it on the gasoline.
14:40
Speaker 2: Side of things, at least right There are plenty of
14:42
other places where you say, no, we probably haven't. Jet fuel,
14:46
jet fuel, boat fuel, even diesels probably still on the uptick.
14:51
In the US, I would imagine you will get plastics demand,
14:54
and what you're seeing on that front that is not
14:56
showing any signs of abating. In fact, it's continuing to grow.
14:59
So this is not to say that oil as a
15:03
whole is necessarily you know, problematic, but more look, one
15:08
of the key drivers of oil demand historically has been
15:11
US gasoline demand. That is no longer a marginal driver
15:15
of increased activity, increased demand for oil.
15:20
Speaker 3: Never really thought about this significantly, But wouldn't electric boats.
15:25
I know that the whole company called Electric Boat that
15:27
makes submarines, But electrified boats be a really low hanging
15:31
fruit segment, right, You're not taking road trips on American
15:34
boats generally speaking, Like everyone that I know that owns
15:37
a boat uses it on a lake for a few
15:39
hours during the day and then parks it back at
15:41
their dock at night.
15:43
Speaker 2: Few problems. The first is weight yep, batteries are really heavy. Yep.
15:48
The second is electricity and water generally don't mix great. True,
15:53
So you end up problem there. You end up with
15:55
some problems there.
15:56
Speaker 1: Yeah.
15:56
Speaker 2: And if you know anything about owning a boat, it's
15:58
really hard to keep water out of all parts of
16:00
the boat permanently. Yeah, as much as you try, Like,
16:03
there's always little things that happen in this and that. Okay,
16:06
dumb idea. I don't know who that's dumb, but it's
16:10
there's problematic stuff there, And I don't know. The boat
16:15
demand that creates most of the demand for fuel is
16:19
not people going out on Winnipesaki, right, it's boats going
16:25
through the Suez Canal. And getting stuck.
16:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, the diesel demand is a little bit
16:30
more significant then.
16:31
Speaker 2: For a stuck boat, demand for fuel is pretty low.
16:35
But for unstuck boats.
16:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, they burn a fair bit of that. From what
16:38
I understand, it's it's high.
16:41
Speaker 2: Let's see today's piece. Today's piece that I just find
16:46
rather humorous from CNBC quote a supersized FED rate cut
16:50
this month could be very dangerous for market. Economist warrens Okay,
16:55
first of all, if there's actually something that's catastrophically wrong
16:58
with the economy, saying hey, we're just gonna move slowly
17:02
because we don't want to spook people ends up getting
17:04
you into a situation where you spook people because the
17:06
economy worsens because you didn't want to spook people. It's
17:10
very dumb. If you gotta cut fifty BIPs, you cut
17:13
fifty BIPs. If you don't have to cut fifty BIPs,
17:16
you don't cut fifty BIPs.
17:18
Speaker 3: Now, if the unemployment rate comes in at four point
17:20
two percent and the FED cuts rates by fifty BIPs,
17:22
then sure go ahead and write this article.
17:24
Speaker 2: Otherwise, just please stop. It's just look, what's more dangerous
17:31
for markets is the FED not doing the right thing
17:33
because they're worried about how it looks. Correct, they got
17:37
to do what they got to do. If they do.
17:39
Speaker 3: Cut it by fifty basis points at the next meeting,
17:42
then any and of all of us should take that
17:44
as a serious indication that the FED is very worried
17:47
about the state of the economy.
17:48
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's a fair a fair position to take.
17:51
Speaker 3: But don't talk about a potential mistake that they could
17:53
make before they even make a decision.
17:55
Speaker 2: You're gonna take a quick break here, and when we return,
17:57
we've got the trivia answer. And then in video, indicted
18:00
Boomberger said they had been subpoenaed by the DOJ and
18:03
video saying, nahuh we didn't.
18:11
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18:34
Speaker 2: There's a PCE and CNBC today talking about a retirement
18:37
disconnect that is sweeping across multiple generations of Americans. What
18:41
is this disconnect?
18:42
Speaker 3: Michael, Well, it's between what retirees or eventual retirees want
18:47
out of retirement and what they think they'll actually be
18:49
able to accomplish. And I would make the argument that
18:52
this is not necessarily the worst disconnect to have. Yes,
18:56
I think when you survey Americans, most of them say, look,
18:59
I don't want to be working. I want to be
19:00
able to have time to travel extensively. I want to
19:03
be able to spend the majority of my time with
19:05
family on you know, relaxation and leisure activities. But when
19:10
you also ask them they think they'll actually be able
19:11
to do that, the answer by and large is no,
19:14
not really, And that's what you are finding in this survey. One,
19:19
I would argue that most people haven't done the actual
19:22
work to find out whether or not they can afford
19:24
to have the retirement lifestyle that they are looking for.
19:28
And two, nobody really knows long term how this all
19:33
plays out and where those expectations land. But my overall
19:37
point on this would be having a planning for the
19:42
worst and expecting for the best is probably the best
19:44
thing that you can do when it comes to your
19:45
overall retirement plan. But before any and all of that,
19:49
if you haven't actually spent any time looking into how
19:53
much it's going to cost you to retire, if you're
19:55
planning to relocate, where you're going to relocate to, what
19:58
the tax situation looks like, you're to downsize, what it's
20:01
going to cost you to do all of that. If
20:03
you haven't built out a plan to address any of
20:05
these things, then there's no possible way you can know
20:08
what sort of lifestyle you can afford to have in retirement.
20:12
It really does come down to individualized planning when it
20:17
comes to planning for that stage of life. And I
20:20
often tell people this, but in many cases, while the
20:25
work that you do for retirement in your thirties, forties,
20:28
and fifties is hugely impactful on your retirement, it's also
20:32
rather simple.
20:33
Speaker 2: It is.
20:34
Speaker 3: It's just how much can you afford to save stash
20:37
as much away in that retirement acount as possible in
20:39
most cases, and that's the best strategy to make. When
20:41
you get into your late fifties, sixties, and seventies, the
20:46
strategies that you employ are arguably less impactful on your
20:49
long term retirement, but are significantly trickier with a lot
20:53
more pitfalls.
20:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's something where again, ultimately I've said
20:59
this before, every single year you got to spend some
21:05
time working through this. It doesn't have to be you know,
21:08
days on end, but you work for two thousand hours
21:12
a year in a normal year. If you're not spending
21:17
five to ten hours a year, not a day, but
21:19
a year, like half an hour maybe an hour a
21:22
month trying to work on this stuff, you're doing all
21:27
that work at the service and one year, maybe hey,
21:30
prioritize getting to understand different retirement account types. The next
21:34
start to understand the investments inside your four to one
21:37
K or four or three B or other retirement plan.
21:40
The one after that, learn a little bit about social security.
21:43
Like you don't have to do it all at once,
21:46
but tackle one big topic a year and just spend
21:48
a few hours educating yourself about it, because then it
21:53
allows you to answer these questions, It really does.
21:56
Speaker 3: I know there's a lot of you listening right now
21:58
that you're either in this position or know somebody who
22:02
is you know, is facing down these questions doesn't know
22:05
how to address them.
22:07
Speaker 2: And I'm just.
22:07
Speaker 3: Here to say that I know, you know, putting your
22:10
head in the sand and delaying these decisions can oftentimes
22:16
be the most common solution, but it is the worst one.
22:19
And if you have these types of questions or concerns
22:22
and are trying to figure out how to plan for
22:24
your own eventual retirement, give the folks at Armstrong Advisory
22:27
Group a call offices throughout New England. We work with
22:30
our clients day in and day out to try and
22:32
solve these problems and address these concerns. The number for
22:35
the Armstrong Advisory Group eight hundred three nine three for
22:39
zero zero one. We offer free consultations all across New England.
22:42
Once again that number eight hundred three nine three for
22:46
zero zero one.
22:47
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
22:50
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
22:52
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
22:55
your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
22:58
any investment decisions. I'm Strong may contact you to offer
23:01
investment advisory services.
23:03
Speaker 2: Mike in Vidia said yesterday that they were not subpoenaed
23:08
by the DOJ about an anti trust probe. This comes
23:10
on the back of a Bloomberg News report that they
23:13
had been subpoenaed by the DOJ I cannot imagine that
23:17
Nvidia is lying about this, because if there's one thing
23:19
that the SEC would frown upon, it's probably lying about
23:23
whether or not you were subpoenaed by the DOJ about
23:25
an anti trust probe.
23:26
Speaker 3: Probably, so I'm guessing that they are right. I would
23:30
also argue that the difference ultimately between a civil investigative
23:35
demand versus a subpoena, which seems to be some of
23:40
the divergence here, is probably not all. I mean, obviously,
23:46
a subpoena is likely more severe than a civical investigative demand,
23:50
but it doesn't change the fact that somebody at the
23:53
Department of Justice is researching potential anti competitive behavior by
23:59
a video that seems to be not really in question.
24:04
Speaker 2: Yes, it's not clear how far along that is, or
24:07
how serious it is, or whether it's actually going anywhere.
24:11
And the other thing that I think is interesting about this,
24:18
here's the part that's kind of interesting and confusing about
24:21
this to me. Two years ago, i think it was two,
24:25
the United States passes the Chips Act, trying to fund
24:28
semiconductor production in America, right yep. As part of that,
24:35
a big chunk of that money was pretty much earmarked
24:38
for Intel, saying hey, we want you to be kind
24:42
of the face of this. There are some going to
24:43
other companies as well for American production. I don't know
24:46
exactly how much was going to each company, but Intel
24:49
was a big chunk. I think it was like twenty
24:50
billion out of the sixty billion. And in that case,
24:54
the United States government said, hey, we want to basically
24:59
build like kind of an national champion company that is
25:01
going to be the face of American semiconductor production. An Intel.
25:06
Now that's also fallen flat on its face. And Intel
25:08
isn't doing very well, and it's questionable whether they're even
25:11
gonna end up perceiving all of the Chips Act money
25:13
because they are milestones they have to meet before they
25:16
do so. But the US government, this administration, the Biden administration,
25:20
said yeah, we're cool doing this. Now you've got Nvidia,
25:25
who is probably what Intel wants to be. You know, like,
25:30
I'm willing to bet that Intel wakes up most days
25:33
and it's kind of like, man, be nice to be them.
25:37
Speaker 3: I'm not sure the US government wants Intel to be that,
25:39
because the US government wants manufacturing, which in Vidia does
25:42
not do.
25:43
Speaker 2: They don't but You've got a company that is at
25:48
this point at least kind of thought of as like
25:50
the gold standard for AI chip development, and in a
25:56
very kind of adjacent area, the US government is saying, yeah,
26:00
we're okay with the National Champion franchise, and in this space,
26:04
it's hey, we're not sure if we are. And that's
26:08
troubling to me because it's kind of like, well, what
26:10
do you want me to do? So you want me
26:12
to get big but not too big?
26:14
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, if so, the rumor mill right, the
26:17
allegations against what has been happening in Nvidia, I don't
26:22
know that you want to ignore them entirely because the
26:25
allegations have been Look, if you are a company trying
26:28
to order our chips and you order from anybody else too,
26:32
We're not going to fill your order. It's kind of
26:34
the definition of anti competitive.
26:37
Speaker 2: Now.
26:38
Speaker 3: I don't know that the VIDIA has monopoly power in
26:40
the space, but I'm not sure you want to just
26:42
turn a blind eye to that either, because that does
26:45
kind of get in the way of you know, if
26:47
you're the United States government and you want to support
26:49
a domestic chip manufacturing space, you know, in Vidia telling
26:53
their customer or more competition in Vida, telling your customers, hey,
26:56
you can't buy from anybody else that might develop those
26:58
chips in the United States.
26:59
Speaker 2: It's but probably it's a fine line to try to navigate.
27:02
It is. Let's take a quick break here. When we return,
27:06
let's do a little bit of stack roulette.
27:09
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28:07
Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for me? For stack Roulette?
28:09
Speaker 3: Beyond Meat plans to launch a new steak alternative as
28:13
it focuses on health, And I'm here to say that, Look,
28:16
if you can't make your fake ground beef taste all
28:19
that great, then you're not gonna get there with a
28:22
fake steak, fake ribbi. Huh, Well, it's just not gonna
28:27
happen beyond that. There you go, You see what I
28:31
did there?
28:32
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, here's the thing. What's the price point for
28:35
their their sausages and stuff? It's like two to three
28:38
x the regular price. I don't know if it's quite there,
28:40
but yeah, it's at least two x. Yeah, it's not cheap.
28:44
So so what are you gonna be charging for these
28:45
you know ribbis?
28:46
Speaker 4: Like seeing something like that for the sausage?
28:49
Speaker 2: What's ninety nine for the sausages a three pack? So
28:53
what are you gonna be charging for the ribbi? Like
28:55
thirty five dollars a pounds? Gonna be waggedy price? What
28:58
am I doing here? On top of that as we've discussed,
29:01
going to look at the marbling and that fake piece
29:04
of meat. They say that they're leaning into health conscious
29:08
and I'm here to tell you, look, I don't know
29:10
the answer, but there's nothing about something being made from
29:15
plants that makes it inherently healthy. No one sits down
29:18
is like, you know what big bag of chips today
29:20
because they're plant based? What a healthy day?
29:23
Speaker 1: Like?
29:23
Speaker 2: No one does that. It's just just because something comes
29:28
from plants doesn't mean it's great for you. You know,
29:33
there's the whole you know, remember everyone's like trying to
29:36
cut out carbs, like the whole Atkins diet and this
29:38
and that. You know where most carbs come from, plants,
29:41
wheat you know, like just because it comes from what
29:46
is it like recycled p protein or something like that.
29:49
Speaker 3: Beyond us hoping to win over consumers who thought it's
29:51
products were too processed by trimming it's an ingredient list
29:54
and focusing it's Marcus marketing on the benefits of a
29:57
plant based diet. So it's going to I mean, I
30:00
don't think you put in all these processed ingredients because
30:04
you like using processed ingredients. It's probably to make it
30:07
taste as close to what you had it as as possible,
30:10
and so you're gonna make it taste worse and try
30:13
and market it as healthy. And I just if I
30:16
want to eat healthy, I'll just eat a vegetable.
30:19
Speaker 2: Right, I'll go have an apple, you know, I'll go outside.
30:24
I'll pull some oak leaves down and eat those and
30:27
call it a day. Can you what an oak leaves
30:30
taste like? Who eats oak leaves? I don't know. I
30:32
was just spitballing here. Again, things that you wouldn't want
30:35
to do just because they're plant based. Like, plant based
30:38
does not inherently mean it's great for you. Yes, if
30:41
you're getting an apple or a green pepper, you know,
30:45
a beat or something like that, it's fine. I'm much
30:49
more interested.
30:49
Speaker 3: Like the piece of the fake meat market that does
30:52
intrigue me is the lab grown stuff that they're trying
30:55
to do. They're like that stuff. I don't know if
30:57
it's gonna taste any good. I just find it fascinating
30:59
that they are actually try to replicate the cells of
31:01
actual meat in a lab without actually growing and slaughtering
31:04
an animal.
31:05
Speaker 2: Really, I think I think it's at least cool. And again,
31:09
it's it's not saying it's gonna be healthier. It's just no,
31:12
he grew this ribbi in a lab. Fine, I'll try
31:16
that once. This I don't know. I mean, yeah, enough
31:21
trouble mimicking the taste? Who said enough trouble making mimicking
31:24
the taste and texture of sausages and ground beef. It's
31:27
not gonna work with a steak. I just don't know
31:29
if it's gonna end up working with uh with the steak,
31:33
especially at the price point.
31:34
Speaker 3: It's tough enough for me to buy like a nice
31:37
ribbi in the first place. If it's twice the price
31:40
and is worse in quality, forget about it.
31:44
Speaker 2: Either of you excited for the new iPhone launch next week? No?
31:49
Speaker 4: No, although mine is really bugging out for me lately.
31:53
Speaker 2: What what are you running these days?
31:54
Speaker 3: He's got a bunch of iPhone Yeah, it's got an
31:57
so the tens what like five or six years old?
32:00
Speaker 2: It might be six, Yeah, somewhere in that ballpark. Are
32:02
you in the market for a new one? Or are
32:04
you just you know, still a wait? If anything? If anything,
32:07
it'd be like a fourteen years old, a generation or
32:11
two behind it.
32:12
Speaker 3: When do they stop supporting these like, is your iPhone
32:15
still getting updates?
32:16
Speaker 2: Tucker, Yes, So they got this new one that's going
32:19
to be coming out. And the big thing is they're
32:22
trying to really promote this as the first device that
32:26
is built for on device artificial intelligence. And I'm just
32:32
not sure how much of a selling point that's going
32:34
to be for people right now, just because here's the thing.
32:39
With all of the other stuff that Apple has been
32:42
able to sell really well, it's stuff that people didn't
32:47
know they wanted, but ultimately they did think about the
32:50
first one. It's hey, think about the iPod just as
32:53
an example, the selling premise was easy, it's all your
32:56
music in your pocket. Great, I get that. The iPhone.
33:01
Hey it's the Apple phone and your music's there, YadA, YadA.
33:05
And then they added everything on there the watch. Hey,
33:09
it's all your Apple stuff on your wrist. This with AI,
33:14
is there broad familiarity with how people actually use AI
33:17
on a daily basis? Now?
33:21
Speaker 3: No, But what if we get to the point where
33:23
Apple iPhone users are just far better at things like
33:29
talk to text and you know the Google Assistant type
33:32
questions that people frequently ask Siri, are.
33:35
Speaker 2: They like do Apple people use those more. I don't know.
33:39
Speaker 3: My point would be, if Apple's product is now significantly
33:42
better than all the competition in that space, is that
33:45
what does it right? Is that where it goes, is
33:48
that what makes it the desirable product compared to buying
33:52
the previous generation phone.
33:54
Speaker 2: I don't know. I just I'm done doubting Apple. No,
33:58
I'm not like they're gonna sell million, tens of millions
34:02
of these things like it's but I hear people talking
34:06
about this like, oh, this is gonna be a major
34:07
upgrade cycle because of AI, And I'm sitting there, I'm going,
34:10
does the average person care about AI yet?
34:13
Speaker 1: No?
34:13
Speaker 3: I think it takes a little bit longer than that.
34:15
And I also the downside to this that I don't
34:17
see is I can't tell by looking at the phone
34:23
from the exterior as to.
34:24
Speaker 2: Whether or not it's the latest and greatest.
34:26
Speaker 3: With the AirPods, with your watch, with many Apple products,
34:31
I've made the argument that the compelling case for owning
34:33
it is that it's a fashion symbol, it's a status symbol.
34:35
Speaker 2: It's you know, look at me.
34:37
Speaker 3: I have the latest and greatest Apple Watch, I have
34:39
the you know, the pro headphones, and I've got my
34:43
two thousand dollars iPhone, so you're not gonna be able
34:47
to really tell that there's some integrated software in here.
34:50
Speaker 2: Speaking of fashion symbols, have you noticed that after that
34:52
initial like one week of buzz, there are no videos
34:56
of people driving around in their Vision Pro helmets anymore?
35:00
Speaker 1: Hell out?
35:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, the buzz just really didn't last long
35:05
on that one. Yeah. I hope they can that project.
35:09
I hope they build it into something that's interesting, but
35:12
it's you don't see anyone talking about it. It's not
35:14
on social media anywhere.
35:16
Speaker 4: At this point, it doesn't seem like there's buzz from developers.
35:19
Speaker 2: By the no.
35:20
Speaker 1: No.
35:21
Speaker 2: Taking a look at markets as we head towards the
35:23
top of the hour, the Dow is down three hundred
35:26
and forty eight points, S and P down thirty two,
35:28
and Nasdaq down twenty three, So a pretty sharp intr
35:31
day reversal from what had been a nicely positive open.
35:35
So market's kind of following the same playbook that they
35:38
did yesterday and on Tuesday, where they've slid from the
35:42
open in a fairly meaningful fashion. We'll see what the
35:45
afternoon brings us, but to this point, not really a
35:48
great day of trading so far. As we head towards
35:53
the middle of the day tomorrow, we got the jobs
35:56
report coming out at eight thirty eight m folks, we're
35:59
gonna be here. We'll break it all down for you.
36:01
Make sure you tune in tomorrow on the Financial Exchange