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War threatens fragile Gulf-Iran diplomacy · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: The United States and Iran have exchanged fire for an
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  Speaker 1: eighth consecutive day. This comes as two US soldiers were
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  Speaker 1: killed by an Iranian strike in Jordan. Jordanian media say
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  Speaker 1: the country's armed forces also shut down three Iranian missiles
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  Speaker 1: on Sunday. Iran also targeted US bases in Kuwait with
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  Speaker 1: a flurry of rockets over the weekend. Both Washington and
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  Speaker 1: Tehran have dismissed the memorandum of understanding signs between the
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  Speaker 1: US and Iran just over a month ago. All right, well,
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  Speaker 1: let's get some analysis now and speak with Mayrzad Borough Jerdy,
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  Speaker 1: Iran and Middle Eastern politics expert at Missouri University of
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  Speaker 1: Science and Technology. Great to have you on DW News today.
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  Speaker 1: So Iran has targeted US partners in the Middle East,
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  Speaker 1: including Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. What does that tell us
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  Speaker 1: about Iran strategy?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think Duran has started this strategy of trying
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  Speaker 2: to make sure that after the US moved some of
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  Speaker 2: its warplanes and ammunitions away from the Persian Gulf estates
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  Speaker 2: to further places like Israel and Jordan, that you know,
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  Speaker 2: they can demonstrate that they can still reach and touch
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  Speaker 2: American forces. Like they did in Jordan. Now, this is
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  Speaker 2: of course a risky enterprise. As we say, it has created,
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  Speaker 2: you know, produced casualties for the US forces so far.
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  Speaker 2: And besides, you know, some of the ports that are
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  Speaker 2: being attacked in Jordan are also very close to Israeli territory,
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  Speaker 2: so the chances of missiles you know, landing in Israel
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  Speaker 2: is also there is. Iran has consciously tried not to
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  Speaker 2: you know, attract Israel into this war again, but you know,
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  Speaker 2: there is always a chance that this might happen as
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  Speaker 2: this conflict acquires more and more of a regional flavor.
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  Speaker 2: All right.
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  Speaker 1: Now, One aspect of this crisis that we've spoken a
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  Speaker 1: lot about, of course, is the Strait of Horne moves.
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  Speaker 1: How far do you think Iran It's willing to go
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  Speaker 1: in disrupting traffic through the strait given the potential economic
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  Speaker 1: consequences for the world and for Iran itself.
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  Speaker 3: Right, my sense is.
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  Speaker 2: That the Iranians have decided that they need to draw
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  Speaker 2: a line in terms of the control over the Strait
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  Speaker 2: of Foremost, not not necessarily because of the significance of
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  Speaker 2: the strait in and of itself, but also because what
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  Speaker 2: this might contain and communicate regarding all the other outstanding
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  Speaker 2: issues between the two sides, the nuclear issue, you know,
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  Speaker 2: support for regional forces, Iran's missiles and so forth. So
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  Speaker 2: they are trying to draw you know, line in the
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  Speaker 2: sand regardless of the economic costs. Look Iran, the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: government had announced before this latest round of warfare that
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  Speaker 2: the damage to its economy from previous rounds was over
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  Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy billion dollars. With the type of
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  Speaker 2: attacks that we have seen over the last seven or
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  Speaker 2: eight days, it's you know, easily has gone to over
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  Speaker 2: four hundred, you know billion dollars in terms of you know,
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  Speaker 2: the cost. And yet the Iranians are thinking that they
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  Speaker 2: can absorb these costs and inflict damage on global economy
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  Speaker 2: and you know, the regional estates as a way of
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  Speaker 2: making sure that they get a better deal once the
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  Speaker 2: negotiation eventually resumes with the United States.
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  Speaker 1: Now, I want to take you up there on the
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  Speaker 1: nuclear issue. Now, the US says it's targeting military infrastructure,
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  Speaker 1: but Iran has actually accused Washington of striking a nuclear
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  Speaker 1: site under construction. So how concerned should we be that
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  Speaker 1: the nuclear issue is moving to the center of this crisis.
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  Speaker 2: Well, of course, the nuclear issue, as we all know,
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  Speaker 2: is even more contentious than the Strait of Hormos. Right
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  Speaker 2: this particular nuclear site, you know, Iran started building it
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  Speaker 2: on three years ago as a small white water reactor
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  Speaker 2: for electricity generation. And right now, based on what we
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  Speaker 2: have heard from the International Agency for you know, Nuclear
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  Speaker 2: Issues I A E. A UH, they are looking into
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  Speaker 2: this report of an attack on this one. What is
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  Speaker 2: troubling if this is indeed the case, is that you know,
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  Speaker 2: the gloves comes off right as a result of this thing,
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  Speaker 2: Iran has already experimented with, you know, attacking a water
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  Speaker 2: desalination you know plant in in Kuwait. You know there
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  Speaker 2: are more than fifty of such uh you know installations
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  Speaker 2: in the region provide all the drinking water for the
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  Speaker 2: golf estates. And if we really see this intensification of
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  Speaker 2: the targeting of military infrastructure in Iran, it's only safe
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  Speaker 2: to conclude that the Iranians are going to respond in
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  Speaker 2: kind as a way of again increasing the cost for
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  Speaker 2: the other side. Now, what is important to keep in
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  Speaker 2: mind here in my view, is the fact that frankly,
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  Speaker 2: I don't see a military solution to this issue. So
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  Speaker 2: imagine even if the United States manages to destroy all
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  Speaker 2: the rans coastal launchers. The fact of the matter is
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  Speaker 2: that Iranian missiles and drone have ranges above one thousand kilometers,
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  Speaker 2: meaning that even if everything in the south of the
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  Speaker 2: country is destroyed, still they can be firing missiles from
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  Speaker 2: the other corners of the country.
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  Speaker 1: Now we only have about thirty seconds left. But considering
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  Speaker 1: that the essentially the memorandum of understanding has effectively collapsed
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  Speaker 1: and we've got eight consecutive days of direct military exchanges,
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  Speaker 1: do you have any hope of a diplomatic way out
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  Speaker 1: of this?
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  Speaker 2: Well, you know, the MoU assigned thirty more than three
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  Speaker 2: thirty days ago, and it was you know, flawywarded, and
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  Speaker 2: I think we are seeing the problems associated with that.
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  Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, as I said,
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  Speaker 2: since I do not see a military solution to this,
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  Speaker 2: there has to be a negotiation based on ANAMOU.
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  Speaker 1: All right, We're gonna have to leave it there. But
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  Speaker 1: really great to get your analysis today. Mirzat borijerdi Iran,
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  Speaker 1: a Middle Eastern politics expert at the Missouri University of
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  Speaker 1: Science and Technology, Thank you very much.
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  Speaker 4: Thanks for having me all right, let's get more from
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  Speaker 4: Rowena Binti Abdul Razak Lektra in the History of the
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  Speaker 4: Middle East and Africa at Soas, University of London. Hello, Rowena,
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  Speaker 4: welcome to the program. Take us back for a moment.
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  Speaker 4: Based on what usually happens when conflicts dragon in the
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  Speaker 4: Middle East, it's Iran likely to emerge stronger through nationalism
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  Speaker 4: or more vulnerable you think.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you so much for having me on the program todnight, Eddie.
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  Speaker 3: It's a good question. In ways, Iran is emerging quite
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  Speaker 3: strong domestically. Remember that this is a government that was
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  Speaker 3: facing severe and legitimacy issues, especially even before the war.
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  Speaker 3: In January and December they were not so protests. So
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  Speaker 3: the war has actually strengthened Iran in many ways and
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  Speaker 3: strengthened the position of the government. They are presenting a
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  Speaker 3: united front. They are able to use the war to
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  Speaker 3: strengthen themselves internally, so in this sense, the nationalistic aspect
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  Speaker 3: is very strong. Furthermore, with things like the streets of
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  Speaker 3: Foremous and gaining control and exerting control over the Straight
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  Speaker 3: of Foremos, Iran has shown itself to be also quite
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  Speaker 3: strong regionally as well, so yes, definitely.
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  Speaker 4: Right right, I mean states, golf states have spent years
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  Speaker 4: trying to improve ties with Iran. What impact does this
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  Speaker 4: war having on the progress that was made.
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  Speaker 3: It's a good question, and I And naturally it's going
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  Speaker 3: to affect regional relations. The Gulf has houses the US
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  Speaker 3: basis is where lots of the attacks on Iran have
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  Speaker 3: been coming from. So and Iran has been retaliated by
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  Speaker 3: hitting golf states, not just US basis but also other
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  Speaker 3: golf assets such as power plants and desalination plants as well,
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  Speaker 3: So we know that the Gulf have been hit hard.
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  Speaker 3: Having said that, there seems to be an indication that
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  Speaker 3: the region wants to maintain relations with Iran, such as
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  Speaker 3: Abbasarachi was just at the in Kata for the funeral
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  Speaker 3: of the Emir. So these kind of indicates that there
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  Speaker 3: are strong the strong desire to maintain relations. But of
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  Speaker 3: course the war is going to put a lot of
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  Speaker 3: strain on the relationship because you know, Iran has exposed
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  Speaker 3: golf vulnerabilities, it has exposed how the US basis make
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  Speaker 3: the golf vulnerable as well, So of course it's going
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  Speaker 3: to be quite a lot of pressure on their elation.
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  Speaker 4: Right, And Iran. We know they've long relied on allied
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  Speaker 4: armed groups across the region. Are those relationships now becoming
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  Speaker 4: more valuable or more of a liability for Tehran looking
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  Speaker 4: ahead for possible peace later.
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  Speaker 3: It's a good question, and we need to kind of
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  Speaker 3: think back to the early twenty twenties. I mean, the
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  Speaker 3: US and Israel have actually been reducing Iran's regional presence.
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  Speaker 3: As we know, back in twenty twenty they assassinated as
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  Speaker 3: a passenger a Menu who is a very important IOGC
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  Speaker 3: leader in the region in Syria, so we know that
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  Speaker 3: their regional presence has actually been quite reduced. So all
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  Speaker 3: of these relationships have also kind of reduced as well.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, we know that has Bullah, Famas, all of
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  Speaker 3: the natural allies of Iran in the region have also
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  Speaker 3: been severely weakened over the last couple of months. So
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  Speaker 3: in a way, those relationships are no longer terribly important anymore,
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  Speaker 3: especially when we take into consideration Iran's important position in
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  Speaker 3: the region. It can very well stand on its own
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  Speaker 3: without its allies. But at the same time, having said that,
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  Speaker 3: it still relies on people like the groups like the
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  Speaker 3: Goodies in Yemen, who can potentially stop and limit the
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  Speaker 3: traffic going through the Babble Mendep Street. So in many ways,
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  Speaker 3: I think Iran is still relying on some of its allies,
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  Speaker 3: but in many ways a lot of its allies have
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  Speaker 3: already been quite weakened.
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  Speaker 4: Right, So well, the hope is that this war ends soon,
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  Speaker 4: right And if that happens, what do you think the
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  Speaker 4: lasting consequence will be for the region.
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  Speaker 3: It's quite unfortunate because this was a fair and stable region,
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  Speaker 3: So I think it has to a lot of it
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  Speaker 3: has to prove that it can then go back to
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  Speaker 3: being a stable region, especially for countries and Katar that
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  Speaker 3: fights itself as a stable area in the Middle East,
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  Speaker 3: which is known to be quite chaotic. So there's a
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  Speaker 3: lot of r that it needs to do for its
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  Speaker 3: own countries. But actually, I think a lot of the
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  Speaker 3: consequences of the war we're not really seeing yet, things
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  Speaker 3: like huge shortages is going to be a real problem,
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  Speaker 3: not just for the region, for the wider world like
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  Speaker 3: Europe that relies on twop that comes from Africa and Asia,
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  Speaker 3: and those countries rely on fertilizers that come from Iran.
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  Speaker 3: So I think we're still not seeing the full extent
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  Speaker 3: of the war on not just the regional economy, but
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  Speaker 3: the global economy as well.
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  Speaker 4: Right, quick one on this before you go. Who stands
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  Speaker 4: to gain the most from this conflict and who has
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  Speaker 4: the most to lose.
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  Speaker 3: It's a good question. In a way, one would like
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  Speaker 3: to think that no one really gains from war. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: the people of the Gulf, people of Iran are suffering immensely.
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  Speaker 3: One would think that in some ways the Ringian government
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  Speaker 3: has somewhat benefited because it's been able to kind of
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  Speaker 3: bring back some just see to its domestic position. The
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  Speaker 3: United States probably want to show then it's able to
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  Speaker 3: still maintain a regional power. But end of the day,
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  Speaker 3: they're both going to exhaust themselves. So in a way
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  Speaker 3: in the long in the long term, no one's really
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  Speaker 3: going to benefit from.
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  Speaker 4: Those right Rowena Bn t Abdu Razakh lektra in the
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  Speaker 4: history of the Middle East and Africa. So that London,
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  Speaker 4: thank you, thank you,