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Best Bets Today | Undefeated Road Oilers Are Underdogs?! | NHL, CBB & CFB Picks Tuesday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Well, we went 2-1 on the show yesterday, and hopefully
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: people got the best number on the Gardner-Webb game because
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: it mattered in that one. And what I should have
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: said when I did the overnight show was that if
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: you're fading like a massively public side, which is what
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: we were doing there, usually you can wait as long
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: as you think there's going to be enough volume in
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: that game, like the number of bets being placed on
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that game. Because that line, if you're playing against the public,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can wait because you're probably going to
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: not lose that better number. And you might get a
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: little bit of a better number. And that's what happened there.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: The number really ran away. It got up to 41,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I think. And the game, it looked like it was
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: a Gardner-Webb cover pretty much the whole time. It was
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: a low enough scoring game. And I'm like, yeah, this
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: is going to be fine. They're going to lose by
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: like 30. It'll be all right. Then, no, right at
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the very end of the game, the number was right
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: around the number, extremely uncomfortable at the end of that game,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: and Gardner-Webb actually had to hit a three when they
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: were down 41, although if you got the best, best number,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: it was actually 41 and a half, I think, when
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the game went off, so they covered that number, but
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: then because they hit the three, they covered the 40
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: and a half as well. They should have covered the
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: 38 and a half after that as well because Gardner-Webb
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: actually got one more possession, and they actually drew a foul,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: and they missed both free throws. That was kind of ridiculous,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: but yeah, they wound up losing the game by 40.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I don't like it to be that uncomfortable, man, but
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: if you got the 40 and a half, you got
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: to win on that. Ball State was a bad call, though,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: on my part. That game was not close. They made
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: it look more respectable later in the game, but it
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: was bad, and I knew that we were in trouble
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: when that number actually dropped. In the middle of the day,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: it looked like the market read was good, and then
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: We get into the evening, and I'm like, oh, crap.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: That number just dropped to, like, one, one and a half. Like,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: that's not a good sign. So that was bad. Obviously,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: the best call that I made was in the NBA.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: No surprise there. We're 11-3 in the NBA to start
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: the season now. And, yeah, and if you exclude the
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: two games that the Heat gossed us, then we're 11-1.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Although the Heat won us a play not too long ago, but, yeah.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Sacramento Kings, I told you, man, take the points. And
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: what do they do? They win the game outright. Yeah, okay.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: And by double digits, I think, too. Not mad about
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: that one. So there you go. And then, unfortunately, I'm
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: mad that I didn't go more full throttle on the Bears. Like,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: that was clearly the right side. I mean, I had
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: them in my pick-em pools, but they weren't in my
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: contest entry. They should have at least been in my
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: contest entry. I didn't add them as a play on
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: the show either. I'm not happy about that. Yeah, clearly
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I was right on the Bears. I don't think we
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot else to say. The big college
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: basketball games, I was right about three out of four
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: of them. Florida, UCLA, and Gonzaga was close, but they
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: wound up covering just, I think, probably unintentional fouls at
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the end. I didn't see the end of it, but yeah.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So those games actually all were fairly good, except UCLA's
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: was probably the least interesting game out of all of those,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: and I wasn't right about Ohio State, but Yeah, just
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: a quick rundown there. Let's get into the show, man.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: We have no NBA today, which is crazy. So the
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: majority of what I'm going to talk about is hockey.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: And then there is some college basketball, which is not
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: an interesting board to me, unfortunately. And then there is MAACtion,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: college football. The MAAC Tuesday night games begin. Maybe somewhat interesting.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: At least one of the two games I think should
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: be It's at least a rivalry, at least in one
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: of the two games. Well, one of the two is
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: a rivalry. The other actually should be a more competitive game.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: That's what I should say. So I'll talk about all
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: that after the intro.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: Let's go.
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: You got a slip in your palm and a.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Hole in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: You look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: in your hand Now you stare at the chips like
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: they made you this man But don't you go quiet,
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: something to somebody for sure Put the glass.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Down, baby.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: Look at me now Hold on, hold on.
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: Not tonight, not now.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: fella bites hard But it don't get the.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: Crown hold on hold on stay with me now.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: What's up everybody it's toad back with you with toadstool
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: sports this is uh tuesday november 3rd uh Gotta get
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: out of here and vote, unfortunately, because I'm going to
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: be voting on the ballot questions, and that's about it.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: We got a big one here in Massachusetts. We actually
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: have a chance to repeal some horrendous gun legislation that's
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: been in place for a long time here. That is
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the only reason that I'm going. None of these people
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: deserve a vote, I'll tell you that. Sorry, I hate
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: you all, but yeah. Let's get into this, man. This
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: is going to not be the most interesting show, and
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I have one play, and it is literally the first
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: game I'm about to talk about because it's first on
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: the hockey board, Utah and Toronto. This is going to
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: be my only play today, Utah. We're going to take
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the Mammoth on the money line here. I think pretty
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: much everything lines up for this play. First of all,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: they're favored on the road, so the odds maker is
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: telling you they're the better team here, which I agree with.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Utah is coming off an ugly loss in Philadelphia today.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: six to three. So I think they're going to be
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: in a bounce back mode after that. And they've had
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: some time off to get over that as they continue
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: their road trip here. So I think it's a decent
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: spot for them bounce back. So they had yesterday off
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: is what I should say. But the main factor in
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: this handicap is Toronto is returning home from a long
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: road trip. They went up to the Pacific Northwest and
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: into Canada and they've been on the road since Saturday,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: October 24th. And you know, this is an angle I
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: use all the time. Teams that return home from road trips,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: longer road trips, stuff builds up for them to have
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: to do at home, and when they get back home,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: sometimes they're distracted and not totally focused on that particular game,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: and they may not be here. They had a decent
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: road trip going two and two. Now back home, though,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: you know, you got stuff to do at home. The
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: wife's nagging you. You know, the kids are being annoying, whatever.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: You have to take care of the house. You're the
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: man of the house. Distraction spot, that's what we got
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: going on here. I know Utah's been a decent team,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: and maybe you won't necessarily overlook them, but for Toronto,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: they might because Utah's not playing that well right now,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: and Utah's a Western Conference team. Even though Utah, I
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: will point out, they did beat Toronto earlier this year
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: in Utah by one, but I don't think that's enough
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: to keep Toronto focused here in this spot. I still
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: think they may overlook a Western Conference team here like
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: this that isn't playing particularly well right now, and look
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: at who Toronto plays next. Yeah, even though it's not
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: for four days, they're playing the Montreal Canadiens, which is
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: one of their biggest rivals. They're the two Canadian teams
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: in the original six. Yeah, huge matchup there. They're one
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: of the biggest rivalries here. So that's a huge game.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: And Montreal's been really good as well. So I think
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: it's a look-ahead spot on top of the return home spot.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: So this is mostly a fade of the spot that
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: the Leafs are in here. But yeah, we're going to
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: take the Mammoth in this one. Let me see here.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: The money, it's hard to gauge the money right now
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: or the market read. Toronto has 53% of the tickets,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: 54% of the cash, so there's no way to really
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: read this market, but I'm telling you, this is all
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: about the spot here. We'll play the money line price
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: on Utah, even though it is slightly juicy, but it's
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: a hockey play. I mean, you got to get used
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: to some of these money lines that are in that
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: price range there, so we're going to do it and
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: take the mammoth in that one, and maybe it'll... Maybe
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I'll have to break out my mammoth jersey again if
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: they're actually going to get this done. Odyssey, what's up?
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Who am I? I don't even know the answer to that.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Who am I? I have no idea. Thanks for checking
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: out the show. Winnipeg at Montreal is the next game. Montreal,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: as I just mentioned, they do have a game against
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the Leafs coming up, which they may consider to be
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: a big game. I think that game is going to
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: be bigger for the Leafs, though. Montreal has won five
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: games in a row, though. They're on a hot streak
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: right now. you know, I mean, they have a couple
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: of days off. The only thing about that is that
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: you don't really want to have too many days off
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: when you're on a roll like this, cause it can
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: hurt your momentum. I don't know if two days off
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: will really do that to them, but Winnipeg may not
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: be the most focused spot for Montreal. Oh, let's just
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: put it that way. Um, Montreal actually has two games
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: before they play Toronto. So I thought it was going
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: to be, uh, I thought Toronto was their next game,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: but they do play Utah in between the two. Um,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: For Winnipeg, uh they're the opposite of Montreal right now
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: they're on a huge losing streak they've lost every game
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: since October 13th really really bad stuff going on here
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: for Winnipeg they've lost I think eight games in a
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: row here one of them in overtime or two of
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: them overtime losses uh the rest of them not um
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: You got to think they're going to get up for
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: this game. The last Winnipeg game, they got embarrassed 7-0.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I know it was against one of the best teams
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: in the league, Carolina, but nobody wants to lose 7-0.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: And it's going to be a massive favorite price here
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: on the Canadians. So if you're going to play this game,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I think the lean would have to be towards taking
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg as a huge underdog here. Montreal is actually not
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: as big of a favorite as you would. I expected
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: them to be at least minus 200, but they're actually not.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: They're like minus 190 something, but they're a public side,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: which is expected. 91% of the tickets on them, 89%
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: of the money. So the money appears to be at
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: least slightly fading them. And I would agree. I would,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: as ugly as it sounds, I would take Winnipeg and
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: make like a plus one puck line out of this
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: and hope that they actually show up and get within
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: that one goal. Do I feel that strongly about it? No,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: but when a team's off a seven, nothing loss, that's
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the way I'm going to lean up against a really
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: hot team. Yeah, I'm leaning towards both streaks potentially being
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: broken there. The Winnipeg losing streak and the Montreal winning streak.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to actually say it's going to happen,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: but maybe. Randy, what's up, man? Yes. Well, yeah. So, right.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Because people want to put a small amount of money
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: on it to win a lot. So, yeah. So, I...
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I bet to win 300 on every game. So that's
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: what I do. But yeah, I do all straight bets.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: So the issue with that is like people want to
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: make a lot of money really fast. Right. But that's
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: when you do that, you're having to basically like get lucky.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: You're having to play a lottery ticket, like a parlay
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: or something like that in the. Odds are not in
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: your favor. The books know that, and they don't give
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: you good enough odds on a parlay. Even though it
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: looks good, like, oh, I'm getting 7-1 on this parlay
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: or whatever. But in actuality, based on the probability of
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: it actually happening, you should really be getting 10-1 or
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: something like that. So I try to find individual games,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: straight bet every single one of them. The games where
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I think you have the biggest edge, pick those out,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: do it, hit those. And then it's about long-term, the
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: long run, winning, and winning. If you do it correctly,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: if you keep your– so you want to stick to, like,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: a bankroll. So you lay out your bankroll, and you
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: want your, like, unit size. We're talking about unit size.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: You want your unit size to be small, to be
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: essentially 1% of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $ 10, 000,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: then your unit size would be 100. And if you're
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: doing that– I make all of my bets, like, a 3%.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: 3% or though essentially though. So like they would be,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: they would each be 300, like 300, if that makes sense,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: something along those lines. Um, so hopefully that all makes sense,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: but it helps you stick to a bankroll. So, you know,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: this is going to be one of my bets. I've
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: identified a place where I think I have an edge.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to bet the same amount that I
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: always do on this one. That's kind of how I
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: do it. And then, I mean, that is how I
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: do it. And then, uh, yeah. And If you stick
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: to that percentage-based approach, you can't go broke by doing it.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? You could definitely lose money,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: but you're betting less on every single game based on...
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: If you lose some of your bankroll, you're going to
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: be betting a little bit less on each bet. You
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? If you stick to that, it'll...
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: keep you grounded and keep you restricted. Whereas if your
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: bankroll is up, you're going to bet more like each,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: your bet size is just going to be bigger. You
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Cause that the percentage of your bankroll,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: that number is just going to be bigger. I hopefully
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: that makes sense. I don't know. It's, it's early in
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the morning, man. Um, but yes, like if you're betting,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: you know, 20, 30 bucks, you know, on a game,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: you know, like I said, man, if, if you want
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: to play like a lottery ticket, you know, throw 20
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: bucks on like some sort of parlay. I mean, I'm
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: not going to tell you not to, even though, even
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: though I'm saying it's, you know, the odds are against you,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: but yeah, you could definitely get lucky. Um, obviously that's possible.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, yeah, I'm just saying, you know, understand,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: you know, each approach and my approach is about like
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: winning longterm essentially. Um, and like, it's a slow grind
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: for sure, which is why people don't like it and
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: it's hard for people to stick to it. Um, But yeah,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: for the minus 130, you're correct. You have to put
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: more money on that to win. So like usually you're
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: betting on like a minus 110 line. You have to bet,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: you know, 110 to win 100. In this case, you're
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: having to bet 130 to win 100, right? So yeah,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit more expensive to make that play.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: But I... That one I just identified as being the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: correct side for me. So it's not a guaranteed winner. Obviously,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: nothing is. But, you know, I just think there is
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: an edge there. I like the spot for them. All right.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit and Tampa Bay. And, therefore, I think that that
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: means they probably have a better chance to win that
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: game than what the odds are giving you. So that's
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: what you want. you can't really quantify that. I look
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: for things that are like unquantifiable, right? Like I'm looking
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: for scheduling spots and it's like, well, how do you
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: even quantify how, how much that has an impact on
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the game? You know what I mean? It's tough to quantify,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: but that's why I like it because the books also
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: don't know how to quantify it. So I think that's
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: where I have an edge. I think it's like, you know,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's a stronger, like that situational angle has
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: more of an impact on the game than people think basically.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: All right, we have Tampa Bay hosting. Who is this?
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Detroit here. Detroit just upset Florida, I'm pretty sure, on
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the road. So they're not going to overlook Tampa here.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Tampa's been really good this year, but beating Florida is
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: also a really big win. Huge upset for Detroit here.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: And that was yesterday, by the way. So Detroit's on
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back. They're playing a third game in four days,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. They used Tarasov as their goalie yesterday,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: so they'll be back to their primary goalie here, Gibson,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: I would assume. But I don't know if that's going
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: to be enough, because the issue here is they're going
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: to have to maintain this huge effort against two really
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: good teams, two games in a row, and I think
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: they might just fall short by the end of it.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: So I don't really want to back Detroit in a
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: spot like this. Too many games in quick succession, big
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: upset yesterday. Tampa Bay did not play yesterday. And their
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: last game was also a bad showing from them. They
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: lost in Nashville on the road in a shootout, and
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: they haven't played since Saturday. So I like Tampa in
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: this one. I think Tampa's the right side in this one.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: They're going to be public, though, and probably the money's
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: going to be coming in against them just because the
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: price is going to be really heavy on them, and
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: it is. It's up to, like, minus 260, something like that. Tampa,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: 89% of the tickets and 88% of the cash. So
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: the money is still there. seemingly coming in a little
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: bit against them and i think it's really just because
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: of the price yeah i mean this price is really
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: high i would not want to play detroit though i
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: don't think the spot's that good for them like i
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: said um one way of playing this because it does
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: look like money's coming in on the over and the
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: total is pretty high at six and a half which
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: usually indicates that this should be a higher scoring game
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: you could play tampa to go over their team total
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: um The only worry with that is they've had a
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: couple of days off, which might cool off their offensive
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: rhythm a little bit. But Detroit, the tiredness that they
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: have might affect their defense quite a bit. And if
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: you think Tampa's going to win the game and you
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: don't want to lay a favorite price like this, and
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: you think the over is going to happen, it makes
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: sense that, therefore, Tampa should get over their team total.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: So that might be the way to look here. You'll
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: probably need them to score four goals in this game, though,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: which is... It's a little bit of an ask, but
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: it's not that unreasonable. I think that might be the
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: way I would play that one, although I'm not really
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: a team totals guy. Oh, no. 50 in your account. Well, yeah,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: if you have 50 in your account, that means you
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: have to bet... I said 1%, right? So that means
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: you have to bet 50 cents. Is that math right?
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Am I that out of it in the morning? That means, yeah,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: your unit size would be 50 cents. So if you're
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: 3%-ing everything, you'd be betting $ 1. 50 on every game. I mean,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: you can still do it. It's going to be slow,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: but you might see the results. And then as your
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: bankroll grows, you're going to be betting more. So the growth.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say it's exponential, but the growth
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: will happen. You know what I mean? It is possible
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: to do that. But yeah, I mean, that's... I get it, man.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: It's a small bankroll, but you don't want to put
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: all of your money on one thing and risk that
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: being wrong. You know what I mean? Every play that
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: I have, even if it's a small favorite like that,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: you're still looking at, at best, 50-something percent that they're
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: going to win that game. You know what I mean?
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: You don't want to have that much of a chance
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: to be completely broke, right? So, yeah, I mean, hopefully
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: that makes sense. It is what it is. That's why
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: this approach will keep you from going broke at least,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: making sure that you only bet a certain percentage of
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: what you have. That might be the most important thing
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: is to not bet more than what you can afford,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense. You know what I mean?
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Next game is St. Louis and the New York Rangers.
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: St.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Louis, they just beat the Red Wings in their last game.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: A decent win for St.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: Louis.
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: Louis.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Red Wings are, you know, they're all right. A couple
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: of mediocre teams, really, between these two. Rangers have really
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: fallen off again recently. The Blues have a couple of
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: days off here. The Rangers, not playing well recently. I mean,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: they lost their stud goalie, and they weren't really expected
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: to be that good anyway, so debatably, they were just
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: overperforming at the beginning of the season here, and they
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: didn't have too many good wins here, except they beat
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Tampa twice early on. Those were good wins. Other than that,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: they didn't really do a whole lot that was that impressive.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Rangers on a four-game losing streak, but they've been looking
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: really bad in their last four games. They're staying at
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: home here. They've had a day off. I think the
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: spot probably does set up a little bit better for
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: the Rangers. If you look at their last game, they
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: lost 4-1 to Edmonton, and that was the game where
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I pointed out the Rangers were actually favored in that game,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: so I liked the Rangers in that one, although I
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: didn't make it a play. They lost 4-1, but if
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: you look at the stats in that game, the Rangers
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: actually outperformed Edmonton statistically, at least somewhat in every category,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: I think. I think they had a massive face-off edge.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: I think they had the hit edge and the shot
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: edge in the game, although part of that was because
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: they were losing, but still... The 4-1 result there was
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: kind of misleading. The Rangers actually played better than that
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: in that game. I would probably lean towards the Rangers
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: in this one. The money, again, is not agreeing with
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: me on that. 64% of the tickets and 53% of
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, so they're like a minus-125 favorite,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: but the money is fading them. I would still prefer
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: them in that game just based on the spot, but
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's really that strong of a spot.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: It's more just like the Rangers just took... Another kind
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: of ugly-looking loss, but they were better in that game
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: than it appeared, and St. Louis is coming off of
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: a win, so I'd rather have the team that looks
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: like they're in more of a bounce-back spot. We got
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at Philadelphia. Minnesota's coming off a really nice win
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: at Washington. Washington's a strong team. Minnesota also strong. Really
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: good win for them there. It's possible they don't have
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: full focus here on Philadelphia a couple days off of
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: that nice win over Washington. Um, after this, they're going
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: to return home and they're going to play at least
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: a Western conference team. San Jose was decent. And then
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Tampa right after that. So this could be the overlook
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: spot here because Philadelphia is not doing that well. So
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be leaning towards the Flyers in this one.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: The Flyers did just get a win over the mammoth, uh,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: as I mentioned at the top of the show. Or
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: at the top of the NHL segment, I should say.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: The good thing for the Flyers, though, is they ended
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: a three-game losing streak. And they're not going to overlook Minnesota. Like, yeah,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: they beat Utah. That was an upset win. It was
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: a good win. It wasn't like a monumental upset. I
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: would prefer Philly here after breaking that losing momentum. And
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: with Minnesota coming off what I think is a bigger...
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: win and Minnesota more likely to kind of overlook this
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: game I would say so I would lean towards Philly
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: in this one money does agree with me on that
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is public 86% of the tickets on them 81%
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: of the cash they're like a minus 170 something favorite
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: here so they're pretty heavy road favorite here so if
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: you take Philadelphia Again, you could make it like a
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: plus one puck line, which some books offer that just outright.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: But the way I do it is if you want
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: to have multiple books available to you too, like depending
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: on what state you're in, hopefully you have a lot
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: of books that are available there and you want to
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: have an account at every single book because you want
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: to line shop and find like the best line that
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: you can. That's also important. And in cases like this,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: you can, You can make the puck line part of
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: the bet and the money line part of the bet
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: at different books. And I recommend doing it that way.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Making a plus one puck line out of it, but
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: splitting the bet. across two bets, essentially, and there's, you know,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: you could calculate, like, what exactly you should put on
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: each part of that bet, there are, like, different sites
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: that do it, I use Johnny Ma's baseball run line calculator,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: because it's basically the same thing, but you want it
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: to do, what you want to do is you want
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: the minus money part of it, which is, in this case,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: it would be the plus one and a half puck
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: line part of it, you want to put you're going
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: to be probably at around about 60% of your bet
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: is probably going to be on that. And then whatever
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: that returns, put that amount of it on the money
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: line part of it. And then that way, if they
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: land on exactly one and lose by exactly one, in
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: this case, then your bet will be a push, essentially.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: The result of your two bets will wind up as
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: a push. It'll be a zero. You know what I mean?
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that makes sense or not. Uh,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm that good at explaining things, man. Uh,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I do like Philly in that game. I mean,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: if you really wanted to, you could just take them
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: on the money line as well and put a, you know,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: less on it to win more. Uh, if you wanted
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: to do it that way. Um, Not saying they're definitely
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: going to win, but I do think they probably have
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: a better chance to win than what the odds are
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: giving you. Vegas is at Pittsburgh. Vegas played yesterday, and
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: they lost to my Boston Bruins. Bruins still playing pretty well, man.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Bruins are actually not bad. They were expected
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: to be really bad, so I don't know. Vegas has
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: not been playing well recently. That game was close. Bruins
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: did have a 2-0 lead in that game, although it
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: was close. Vegas tied the game late. only to lose
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: in a shootout where no goals are scored in the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: shootout until the very end of the shootout. A posture knock,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: I think, won it for the Bruins at the very end.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Vegas on a back-to-back now, though, having to travel to
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: a different city off kind of a tough game against
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. Don't think the spot is really that good
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: for Vegas here. I'm not sure it's particularly great for
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh either as they're coming off a close loss in Montreal,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: although at least for them that was Saturday, so they
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: have more time off and they'll be likely going back
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: to their primary goalie here, although I don't think any
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: of their goalies are really that good, but it'll be
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Seelovs back in net for them here most likely. I
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: think I'm going to lean Pittsburgh here just because Vegas has...
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: no turnaround time here so pittsburgh does have the rest
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: edge but it will be factored into the line though
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: that's the thing so the rest edge is definitely going
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: to be part of uh it's already going to be
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: factored into the price um both teams coming on like
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: coming off tough games though so that's kind of the
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: issue i have with this i don't Really love either
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: team here. The money is definitely agreeing with Pittsburgh, though.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Vegas has 67% of the tickets on them. They're still
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: public side, especially based on them making that run to
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: the finals last year. And I do think Vegas is
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: better than their recent run. Makes them look, but I
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: don't think they're quite as good as they looked last year.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think Pittsburgh is that good either, but in
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: this spot, I'd probably prefer them. And the money is
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. 55% of the cash on them. Vegas is
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: a small road favorite in this game. The money looks
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: like it's dropped the line, though. They were at minus 118.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Now they're like minus 112, basically. And the line is
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: kind of headed in Pittsburgh's direction there. So the money
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: seems to agree with me on that one. Dallas and Washington...
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: maybe the best of the hockey games here. You have
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: two actual good teams. Well, this one and the one
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: that's on Hulu that I'm going to talk about, those
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: are the two actual good games, I would say. Although
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: hockey is a close sport, so, you know. But these
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: are two good teams, Dallas and Washington. Dallas just beat
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Columbus on Saturday, starting a road trip here. Washington should
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: be the team that they care more about on this
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: two-game road trip because the other one is Columbus, a
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: lesser team and a team they just beat. So I
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: expect focus from Dallas coming into this one. Being in
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Columbus doesn't really matter. Washington should be focused as well
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: because they did just lose 5-1. to the Wild, as
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: I mentioned. Big game, but when you lose 5-1 at home,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: it's still an embarrassing loss, even if it was to
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: a good team. So I expect Washington to show up
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: for this game as well. I'm going to lean slightly
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: towards Washington here. I think the perception still is that
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Dallas is this top team, which I'm not going to
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: say they're not. They're one of the better teams in
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the league, for sure. But I think Washington, just because
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: they didn't really do that well last year, they're a
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: little bit under the radar, as I talked about in
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: my season preview, and I think that remains the case.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Dallas has 56% of the tickets on them. Washington, 52%
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: of the cash. So the money does appear to be
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: leaning in the Washington direction, at least for now, although
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the market could change soon. By the time the game
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: tips off or faces off, whatever you want to call it.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: So you've got to take these numbers with a little
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: bit of a grain of salt here. But, yeah, it's
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: about a pick-em line here. Washington about minus 110. So
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers do have Dallas as the slightly better team since
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: you've got to give Washington something for home ice. But
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I'm going to lean towards Washington there. Stoopy, what's up, man? Hello.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Hello to you as well. All right.
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Next game is Colorado and Columbus. This game, I almost
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: put this on my card, even though I actually like
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: a total in this game. Colorado played yesterday. They beat
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: up Chicago yesterday. No surprise there. But now they have
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: no rest. They're playing Columbus, a game that maybe they
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: don't fully focus on here. And they will go back
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: to Wedgwood. in net here, not to be confused with Blackwood,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: their primary goalie, but Wedgwood has not been good recently.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Colorado lost his last three starts, and in two of
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the three, they gave up four-plus goals in the last two,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: so that's not really a good track record here with
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Wedgwood in net, and the first game that he was
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: in net, they won, but it was because they scored
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: a lot against Calgary, so this is a downgrade for
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Colorado in their goaltending here, so You kind of know
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: where I'm going with this because I said I like
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: a total here. For Columbus, I don't like the spot
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: for them either because they're returning home from a road trip.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: They were on the road since last Tuesday. They didn't
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: go too far geographically. Philly, Carolina, Dallas. But tough games
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: against Carolina, Dallas. They played okay in those games. Now
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: they're back home. And while they're not going to overlook
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Colorado because Colorado is still one of the best teams
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: in the league. It's a difficult spot. Again, it can
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a distraction. You have to
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: balance playing the game with that distraction that comes into
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: play when you're returning home again. I don't love any
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: of Columbus's goalies, so I think if you're going to
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: play this game, I would say play the game over
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: the total. That's what I like here. You've got Colorado
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: with no turnaround time, no rest, so I think that
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: could affect their defense negatively. I think when Columbus could
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: be in a possibly unfocused spot here, that can also
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: affect the defense. Although, I would worry that with Columbus
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: returning home and having some time off, it might throw
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: their offensive rhythm off a little bit too. But yeah,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: I like the over in this one. It looks like
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: the money agrees with that. 55% of the tickets on
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: the under, 68% of the cash on the over. The
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: total is fairly high. It's at 6, 6.5. If you.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: I would try to find a six if you can
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: at like minus 120 on the over. It's going to
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: be juiced a little bit. Every half goal matters in hockey,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: so that's what I would do there. As far as
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: the side, the money is fading Colorado here. 85% of
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 63% of the cash on them. They're a
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: public side, and it looks way too easy to play
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Colorado at like minus 130. But you know that because
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Colorado has no rest, you know that's being factored into
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the line. Like Colorado would be a heavier favorite if
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: that wasn't the case. But because it looks so easy
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: to play Colorado, and they're so public, and they may
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: not fully focus on this game, I would still also
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: agree with... With the money, with the market read on that,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Columbus as the home underdog in
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: that one. But I think the over is the better
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: way to play that. You parlayed them all. Yeah, I'm
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: recommending everything as a straight bet. Yeah, Ball State, I
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: knew that that was going to be bad when the
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: line moved against me. I'm like, yep, fucked. Although sometimes
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: my situational handicap is strong enough that it overcomes that,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: but first game of the year, it gets really dicey.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: I shouldn't have done it, but I don't know. I
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: thought that the odds makers were kind of signaling something like,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: why the hell is this Ball State team favored? I mean,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: you saw my handicap on that. I don't know. Maybe
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: I should have left it off the card there. Yes, yeah.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: The total, is that like a wordle? It's every day,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: but it's, Me watching my show or something? Oh, thank you. Stoopy.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that. Yes, tell everybody. Thank you. That's what
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to do, just give out a ton of info.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm dumb. I don't know. But I've been doing
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: this for, yeah, 19 years. So hopefully I kind of
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: know what I'm doing. And over that span of time,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I am up. doing this and over the last four
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: years tracking on action network I'm up in every single
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: one of the sports that I play even the WNBA
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: that didn't go that well this year I don't win
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: every single sport every single season like you do have
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: some bad seasons in there but yeah I mean I've
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: only had two losing years over that entire stretch so
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: yeah I don't know take that for what it's worth
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: I guess Uh, next game up is maybe the biggest
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: game on the slate Edmonton in New Jersey, which is
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: the Hulu Disney plus game of the night here. Um,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: everybody likes watching Edmonton cause they got a good offense.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: They got Connor McDavid, whatever they're playing really well. They
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: have one of the best records here, but I do
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: keep pointing out their schedule has been pretty soft, man.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: They have two really good wins in here against Minnesota
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: and Carolina, but both were overtime games that came at home.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: And their schedule's been quite soft otherwise. Now, they're on
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the road already here, and they're staying in the New
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: York area, and they're trying to complete the New York
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: triad here, if you want to call it that. They
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: beat the Islanders and the Rangers already here. But as
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: I already mentioned, they did not actually play that well
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: in that Rangers game. If you look at the stats,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: the Rangers actually out-statted them in that game. So that's
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. And Edmonton's now playing a third
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: game in four days. not all in different cities because
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: they haven't had to travel much because they're still in
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: the New York area here in northern New Jersey, I
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: think is where the Devils play, but still three games
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: in four days. It's not that easy to complete this
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: triad here, and the Devils are the best of these
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: three teams, and it's also not even close. Devils are
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: clearly better than the Rangers and The Islanders here. So Edmonton,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: this is going to be their tallest order on this
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: road trip here. This is going to be their toughest
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: game since that Carolina game. And New Jersey is favored
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: in this game, even though their record is worse. And
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Edmonton's 7-0 on the road. I messed it up. I
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: think in the thumbnail I put 6-0. They're actually 7-0.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: So this is in my thumbnail. Which, by the way,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: I apologize. I forgot to explain. The thumbnail yesterday was
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: that the Seahawks had not allowed a 100-yard rusher in
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: however many games I said. I think it was like
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: 30-something straight games. Seattle had not allowed a 100-something-yard rusher,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: but they were going up against one of the best
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: rushing attacks in the NFL, the Chicago Bears. So I
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: don't even know how that played out. I know the
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Bears put up a bunch of points. I didn't really
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: watch much of the game, though. Let me see. I
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: think the Bears still didn't have a 100-yard rusher, though.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: They got over 100 yards as a team, but, yeah,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Swift was their leading rusher, and he didn't do much.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: He had 69 yards. That Seattle run defense still was
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: stuffing the Bears in that one, even though the Bears
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: put up a lot of points. So, yeah, that Seattle
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: run defense is definitely legit. Anyway, I just... I totally
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: forgot to point that out, explaining my thumbnail. But anyway,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: back to this. Yes, Edmonton is undefeated on the road,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: but I think they might take their first road loss here, man.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: New Jersey's not only favored, but they're favored at minus
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: 150-something here, which is, that has to be telling, right? Like,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: why is this 9-5 New Jersey team minus 150 against Edmonton?
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Edmonton's not on a back-to-back right now. I don't believe, right?
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: I think, yeah, that game against the Rangers was two
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: days ago. So yeah, this line, this is one of
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: the most like bizarre lines that you'll see, right? Like
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: it looks way off. So you'd think the public would
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: be all over Edmonton here. Like, oh my God, I'm
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: getting Edmonton at basically plus 130 and they're undefeated on
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the road and they have an 11 and two record
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: or whatever. How could you possibly be getting Edmonton as
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that big of an underdog here? But the public doesn't
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: look like they're totally on that side. 52% of the tickets,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: 76% of the cash on Edmonton. Still, I think I'm
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: going to lean New Jersey here, even though New Jersey
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: is coming off a pretty good win. at the Golden Knights.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: The problem with New Jersey is they're returning home from
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: a road trip. That's the big problem with New Jersey here.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I don't like that. They were on the road starting
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: last Tuesday and they went to Dallas, Colorado, Vegas. None
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: of those teams are easy to face and they won
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: two out.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: Of the three.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Good road trip for the Devils, and now they're returning
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: home from that, so you know, I talk about how
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: that's a distraction spot, coming back home from the road
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: like that, you got stuff to do back at home,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: but the thing is, this is a huge TV game basically,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: against the Oilers, like that should alleviate the distractions here,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: so I'm definitely not going to actually play New Jersey,
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I just can't bring myself to play a team in
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: a return home spot like this. Also, they did pull
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: off what I assume was an upset against Vegas, although
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: it might have been a mild upset on the road
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: at Vegas. Keep in mind, New Jersey has Hellebuck now,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: and he's only played two games, and they won both
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: of them. And he will play tonight because they have rest.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: They haven't played since Friday. That's the other thing. Well, actually,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: I guess that is probably factoring into the line a
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: little bit. The rest that New Jersey has is probably
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: what's pushing that line up because they haven't played since Friday.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: So that's probably why the line is so heavy on them,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: like minus 150 or so here. But I'm still going
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: to lean towards New Jersey. I just think that line
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: looks really insane. So I'm going to go more with,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: it's more like I'm going to do an odds maker
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: interpretation of Lean on this game. That's the way I'm
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: going to lean. I am going to lean towards New
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Jersey here. I don't really want it because of the
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: return home spot. But, yeah, they're 2-0 in the Hello
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Books game so far. And he's an elite goalie, man.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: And he's wasting no time going out there and playing well. So, although,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: you know, Dallas, not necessarily a great offensive team. They
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: didn't put up that many shots in that game. Vegas
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: is a little bit better offensively. And he was good
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: in that game, too. So, yeah. he's going to have
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: a tall order here against Edmonton though. No doubt about it.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Edmonton is, is an elite offensive team, probably the best
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: in hockey, but we will say, uh, I, I will
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: lean slightly towards New Jersey there though. Yeah. Gibberish jokes.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I'm, what did I even say?
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I said. Um, who, who
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: do I, who does the chat side with? Uh, I
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: don't know. Um, You're rooting for the Bears? You actually
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: bet on the Bears? Well, all right. At least I
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: gave that out as a lean there. I'm kind of
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: angry I didn't actually fire on that one. I'm not
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: rooting for the Bears because I gave out a season
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: win total under on the Bears prior to the season.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: My win totals are not looking great right now. I
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: had Lions, I think, over. It might have been over
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: nine and a half on the Lions, though, so I
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: think that one's looking all right. And then I had
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: under for the Patriots, I think under 10, 10 and
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: a half, whatever it was. I think it was 10.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: That might still happen because there's. is about to get
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: a bit more difficult. Bears, you know, for their win
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: total to go under, we kind of needed them to
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: lose that game yesterday. So I don't know. I'm talking
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: to everybody in the chat. I'm doing a show here.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: What are you talking about? I talk to whoever's in
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: the chat. Otherwise, it's just me doing the show. I
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: do it for me, really. That's kind of how I
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: started it because I'm like... This is what I do.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: It's what I'm passionate about. I've got to talk about it,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: so I'm like, whatever. I'll just do it as a show.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Maybe people will get some good information out of it.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Carolina at Nashville is the next game here. Hopefully I
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: can get the show done in not too much longer.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: I think college basketball will be a little bit quicker
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: for me to get through because it's not really that
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: interesting today. It's not a mammoth slate like it was yesterday,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: not the Utah mammoth. Carolina is coming up that 7-0
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: blowout of Winnipeg. Going to Nashville here, I don't know
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: if you're going to get the most effort out of
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Carolina in this particular game here. Coming off a 7-0 win,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: they might be feeling pretty good about themselves even though
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: it was against a Winnipeg team that isn't playing well.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: I'm usually not going to want a team that's coming
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: off a 7-0 blowout. Problem is, Nashville's not exactly in
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: a great spot either because they just beat Tampa Bay
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: in a shootout. That was a nice game for them.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: They haven't played since Saturday. Staying at home, they're not
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: going to overlook Carolina, though. And Nashville, I'm assuming, will
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: have Saros back in net again for this one. He
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: is their best goalie still, but he hasn't exactly been excellent, though, recently.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: But I think overall I'm still going to lean towards
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Nashville here. I cannot play a public Carolina team coming
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: off a 7-0 blowout. 94% of the tickets and cash
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: on Carolina, they're super public. They're about minus 190-something here
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: in this game. You can get Nashville at a pretty
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: big underdog price if you really want to do that.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: make a plus one puck line out of it or whatever.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Nashville there, but I don't really
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: want either team there. I guess you could argue that
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: it's one of those games where maybe if neither team
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: is going to be– well, if Carolina is going to
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: be unfocused and Nashville is coming off a big effort–
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: There is kind of an argument to be made for
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: the over in that one, but I think the money's
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: playing the under in that game, and I wouldn't want
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: to do it because there is rest involved there. So
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: Nashville has enough rest that maybe they'll be able to
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: put that win over Tampa Bay into the rear view,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: and they won't be that tired coming off of that
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: at this point. They're not going to overlook Carolina, so
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: it's not like a letdown spot for Nashville, which it
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: might be if they're playing a worse team here. Then
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: we have Anaheim and Vancouver to finish this off. Vancouver,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: very bad team, but I think they might be the
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: right side here. Anaheim is coming off a nice win
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: over Ottawa. Anaheim hasn't really been playing that well, although
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: they finally got a couple of wins here. Now, the
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: one thing that might keep Anaheim focused here is that
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: they lost to Vancouver at home last week. So that
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: was a bad loss for Anaheim at home. So they
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: may want to go and return the favor here and
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: or win. It might just keep them focused, basically, against Vancouver,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: where they otherwise wouldn't be, just because Vancouver came into
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: their house and beat them, and that quick road revenge angle,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: if you want to call it that, does work fairly
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: well in hockey and NBA and whatever. But it's not
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: because the team's angry and wants revenge, necessarily. It's more
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: like that team is not going to overlook that team
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: the next time, and they're going to fix what went wrong.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: The problem is, Nice win for Anaheim in their last
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: game over Ottawa, but they have Edmonton on deck, man,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: so there is the possibility they are still overlooking this
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: bad Vancouver team and towards Edmonton in the next game.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Vancouver is staying at home, and they're off another loss.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: They took that loss in a return home spot, though,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: where they had two games in California, then they came
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: back home. Not exactly the worst return home spot, but
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: they still lost to Toronto. They might be in more
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: of a... They might be in more of a bounce-back
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: spot here. That game was on Saturday. I am still
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: going to lean towards Vancouver in this one. They're going
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: to be an anti-public side almost certainly. Yeah, Anaheim's got
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: 86% of the tickets, although 87% of the money, but
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: it looks a little bit too easy to play Anaheim
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: at minus 150 or so is about the line, the
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: price here. Yeah, I'm going to lean towards Vancouver, but
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: Anaheim having just lost them at home would worry me
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit about that, that maybe Anaheim will still
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: be focused here. And a lot of times the start
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: of the road trip is still a focus spot. But
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: with Edmonton on deck, I think that takes away from
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: their focus in this game, maybe at least a little bit.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to go on hydration break. I'll
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: be back. I'll switch over to college basketball, which I
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: think I'm going to do college basketball kind of quickly
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: because there's nothing really particularly interesting about the college basketball
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: slate today. So I'm going to kind of do like
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: almost a little bit of an overview and just kind
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: of almost talk about it in like generalities, unless somebody
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: really wants me to talk about any specific game, but
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: there really are not any interesting games. I don't think so.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back and get into that. Okay.
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: Thank you. Thank you.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's get into college basketball here. So we do
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: have a college basketball slate. Some of the ranked teams
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: are playing here. I mean, some of the games have
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: competitive lines, so I don't want to say that they're
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: all totally uninteresting, but I'm not interested in having a
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: bet on any of these games. These teams are all
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: playing their first game of the season, just like yesterday,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: and I'll reiterate that in these first games of the season,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: these teams have this long layoff, and sometimes the teams
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: have new players personnel and whatever, like they have a
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: new lineup, et cetera. I think the unders generally are
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: kind of what you want to look at just in
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: general in these first games, because the offenses can tend
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: to start a little bit slower for all those reasons.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: The defenses usually play well, more so right out of
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: the gate. So unders generally make sense in these first games,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: especially in the first half as well. First half unders
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: playing these teams to like start slow. Those all make sense.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: And then I do also talk about how the, Generally,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: you're going to get line value fading the big favorites.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: We have a lot of these ranked teams here. Tennessee
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: playing Wofford. Kentucky playing Manhattan. Tennessee is the number eight team.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is the number 23 team. You got Virginia, the
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: number nine team, playing Drexel. Alabama, number 20, playing Sam Houston. Arkansas,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: number 12, against Arkansas Pine Bluff. I'm going to talk
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: about that game a little bit more in detail in
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: a second. Because if I was going to play any game,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: I'd be kind of looking at that one for a
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: couple of reasons. But games like this, you know that
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: you're not getting any value laying the favorites here because
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: everybody knows that favorite is the way better team. So
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: the odds maker is going to push the line up
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit on those teams. So I think in general,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: you want to be looking towards the underdogs in those
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: games more often than not. But I'm not just saying,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: you know, blindly play any of these or whatever. I
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: want to find a better spot, and I don't really
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: see a whole lot of good spots here. I don't
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: handicap the first game of the season very well. I
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: do scheduling dynamics stuff mostly. For me, the first game
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: is really about is there some sort of misperception here
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: about this team and are the odds makers telling you
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: something different than what the public thinks or different than
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: what the ranking makers are telling you. I don't really
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: see that in any of these games here today. What
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: I will say about Arkansas, Arkansas Pine Bluff is that
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: Arkansas Pine Bluff is a Little brother, obviously, in the
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: state of Arkansas. So this is going to be like
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Arkansas Pine Bluffs Super Bowl. This is their biggest game
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: that they play. They get to play the universal. of
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Arkansas so they're gonna get up for this game even
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: though Arkansas is obviously the way better team but Arkansas
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: they don't care as much about this game like this
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: is more of a game let's just get in let's
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: just win it you know what I mean and look
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: at who Arkansas plays next although it's not for a
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: They got a player ranked Virginia, who's ranked in the
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: top 10 up next. So that could be a look
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: ahead for Arkansas. So this is my favorite spot on
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: the board. I don't think it's good enough to actually
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: make the play, but you could take Arkansas Pine Bluff
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: plus 41.5 or something. Arkansas Pine Bluff is one of
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: the worst teams in all of Division I. I know
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Gardner Webb was last night too. Like, there's no sugarcoating it.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: They're really bad. And they're in a horrible conference, too,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Arkansas Pine Bluff. They're in the SWAC, I think, which
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: is where Mississippi Valley State is. The team that's always
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: the worst team in all of Division I. And they
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: seem to relish that for whatever reason. But, yeah, I
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: think Arkansas Pine Bluff, this game means way more to
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: them than it means to Arkansas. Arkansas has this bigger
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: game on deck. Arkansas might just go vanilla. and not
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: want to do anything crazy here. Arkansas did lose their
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: best player from last year, a cuff to the NBA draft.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately for him, he's on the Sacramento Kings, but we
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: got a win with them yesterday. Um, so Arkansas has
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: got to replace him at least. So they might have
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a slower start to the season. Although, yeah,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: it's Arkansas Calipari, you know, like there's still going to
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: be a good team. I don't know how good really,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: maybe they're a little bit overrated, uh, ranked 12th in
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: the country here. Um, you're going to be getting a
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: lot of points if you're playing Pine Bluff as an
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: underdog here. 41 and a half is the number. Like
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: I said, the money is actually sort of tilted towards Arkansas,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I would definitely lean against them though here.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: 67% of the tickets at 82% of the cash in Arkansas.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: One real drawback to this though, is that Arkansas likes
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: to play fast and they score a lot. That's what
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: they do. So they're, they're one of the teams that's
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: more likely to cover a number like this. Whereas one
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: of the, reasons I liked fading Yukon yesterday was they
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: play really slow and they're more of a defensive team.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: That is not what Arkansas is. Arkansas is more of
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: an offensive team and they play fast. So they are
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: a style of team. It's more likely to be able
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: to get more points up there on the board and
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: more likely to cover a number like this. And you
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: can see that with the total being in the high
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: one sixties, it's a really high total. So I don't
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: really want to do it. Although as far as the spot,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: that one looked pretty good to me. Um, Yeah. Tennis.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: I don't do anything with crypto. Crypto is really volatile.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Tennis and golf. I mean, yeah, if you focus on
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: those sports and you know what you're doing, yeah, there
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: is definitely value to be had there, especially because the
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: public doesn't touch those as much. Yeah, you could definitely
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: win money betting tennis and golf. I don't really know.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: You know, I follow a lot of professional bettors. I
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: don't know if I know any specifically that really do tennis.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: But I'm sure, yeah, there are guys out there that
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: do it, though, for sure. For golf, I would say
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Brady Cannon is one professional handicapper. You can go see
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: if you can find stuff that he puts out there.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: He does golf. There's this guy, Rick Run Good, although
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: he's mostly about fantasy golf. He has a YouTube channel.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: He's more of like a... He does more like math
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: type of stuff, analytical type of stuff, but he does golf.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: And then I want to say probably Andy Lang on
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Wager Talk because he's kind of the guy that he
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: does props mostly, but he does like a lot of
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: weird sports. He tries to focus on, you know, the
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: markets that people aren't really touching. You know what I mean?
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Thinking that maybe you're going to find some more value there.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: And like it might be more likely that the odds
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: makers have a line that's off in one of those areas.
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Because the odds makers spend
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: less time making those lines because they know fewer people
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: are betting them you know what i mean um so
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: yeah andy lang might have some stuff with tennis and
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: golf i'm guessing he probably does because he does all
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: those weird sports i i know even though those sports
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: aren't aren't really that weird he does like darts and
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: stuff like that um all right and then yeah as
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: far as the rest of these college basketball games i
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: mean i just don't really have a whole lot here
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: man um one thing that caught my eye is that
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: new Orleans has changed their name to LSU, new Orleans.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that was the case last year
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: or not, but they have the same logo, but they
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: changed their colors. They used to be like blue and
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: green and they, or whatever. And they changed it or
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: blue and teal maybe. And they changed their colors to
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: purple and gold or whatever it is for LSU colors.
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: So I guess the university of new Orleans, I guess got, um,
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: And they were the privateers, which, you know, their logo's
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: like a pirate, but I thought that they were a
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: private university because I thought that had something to do
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: with them. Maybe they were, maybe they weren't, maybe I'm
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: wrong about that, but obviously it looks like they're at
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: least now owned by LSU, so they're a state university.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: So that's weird. LSU New Orleans is what New Orleans
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: is now, and they're playing LSU today. LSU, this is
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: not football, though, so LSU's basketball team. Program has not
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: been good recently. So, I mean, that is a little brother,
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: big brother situation where I'd probably, again, be looking towards
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: the underdog there at plus 24.5. But I just thought
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: it was kind of hilarious that New Orleans has become
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: LSU New Orleans. As far as anything else that I
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: would say about this, you do have situations, basically just
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: this one, North Florida playing at Cal Baptist. That's a
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: situation where you have an Eastern team going all the
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: way out West to play a late-night game at 10 p.m.
• 55:02
  Speaker 5: Eastern.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: I don't like that spot for an East Coast team either.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: I think you have to adjust your biological clock somehow
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific time, but your biological clock is still
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: thinking it's Eastern time, and you're playing late at night,
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: so you can tend to get more tired out. So
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: I don't like East Coast teams going out West. As
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: you know, I feel like I mention that a lot
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: on the show. I wouldn't necessarily want Cal Baptist in
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: that game either, though. They were about a 10.5-point favorite there,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: but I think people remember Cal Baptist won their conference
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: last year, and they made the tournament last year, although
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: they were won and done in the tournament. They lost
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: to Kansas. I mean, pretty much you knew that was
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: going to happen, but people might remember that, so Cal
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Baptist might have a little bit of name recognition now
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: because they made the tournament last year, so that might
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: have them a little bit more of a hyped team
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: than they normally would be, so I wouldn't really want
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: to um, play on them in this game either. Uh,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: but you know, just some things to think about there. LSU,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: by the way, is a public side against LSU, new Orleans.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: They got, um, pretty high ticket, uh, ticket percentage on them,
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: but also a high cash percentage on them. Uh, Cal Baptist,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: also a similar market read for them there, but yeah,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I'd be still, yeah, I'd be leaning towards the underdogs
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: in those big games, but, uh, Cal Baptist, I would
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: actually probably fade them. Um, I don't want to be
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: on any Eastern team going out West like that. Although
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Cal Baptist, I don't know if their offense is actually
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: good enough to cover a number like this. Although the
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: total is not that low in the 150s. So maybe
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: I got that wrong or maybe North Florida has a
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: really bad defense at this point. I don't even know.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: I need to get more familiarized with these teams, man.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: And I know I should be when I'm putting money
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: on it, but I'm so heavily about scheduling spots, it
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter as much to me. All right, and then
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: to finish off the show, we have no NBA today. Unfortunately,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: the NBA, we had 15 games yesterday, and then tomorrow
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: there are like 14 more or something. So the NBA
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: is giving me a day off today, but making it
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: difficult on me the next few days, although I identified
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: a great spot last night with the Kings, so there
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: you go. Um, but today college football Tuesday, Mac-tion resumes.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: We always get Mac games on Tuesday night in the
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: later part of the season. And that is beginning tonight, uh, with, uh,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: the first game on ESPN to Ohio and Akron. So
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: it is a battle of Ohio rivals here. The problem
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: with that is that, yeah, these teams are rivals. They
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: don't like each other. Akron's primary rival is really Kent
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: state though. Um, although the problem really is Akron and
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Kent State are both horrible teams this year, and Ohio
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: is trying to win this conference this year, so it
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: is a mismatch. Ohio's the better team here, but I
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: think it's going to be a one-way rivalry, I think,
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: in this game. I think Ohio just won't care as
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: much about this game at this point, whereas Akron has
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: a chance to deliver a loss to Ohio and maybe
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: try to spoil their season, so I think Akron might
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: be the way to look in this game, Ohio. The
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: thing about Ohio, those they're coming off a bad performance
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: against Eastern Michigan last time up. Both these teams played
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: last Saturday. So they have a week off plus a
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: couple of days. So both teams have the same amount
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: of rest here. Now, one thing I don't like about
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: that for Ohio is that means they have over a
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: week off now and they're on a five game win streak.
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: So I think having over a week off can disrupt
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: your momentum. So I think that's a negative for Ohio. Um,
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: The Eastern Michigan game, though, I think that's actually a
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: positive for Ohio because Ohio was a double-digit favorite in
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: that game, and they almost lost. They were actually losing
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: that game in the final minutes of the game, so
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: they got a scare in that game, so sometimes that
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: will refocus you when you're a big favorite and you
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: almost lose, so that is the case with Ohio here,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: but I still think they might be in a momentum
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: disruption spot here with too much time off, and they
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: have their biggest game pretty much on deck. They're playing Miami,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: Ohio next. And that's like Ohio's, not only Ohio's biggest rival,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: but Miami, Ohio. is a one loss team in the
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: MAC and one of the teams that is a legitimate
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: threat to win this conference like I actually don't think
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is really that legit but I think Ohio Western
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Michigan Toledo and Miami Ohio I think are all kind
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: of legitimate threats to win this division or to win
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: this conference excuse me This conference used to have two divisions,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: I think, but it doesn't anymore, so they're all lumped
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: in together. So I do think it could be a
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: look-ahead spot here for Ohio. That Miami-Ohio game, I think,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: is going to be bigger than this game is. The
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: other thing I always point out in these midweek football
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: games is that the home team tends to get a
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: little bit of an extra boost because they– The home
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: team tends to get up a little bit more for
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: these games mid-week because they want to show up. They
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: don't want to look bad at home on primetime TV
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: and they get a better crowd for those games. The
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: crowd's going to show up in larger amounts. Oh, we
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: get this mid-week TV game and they're just more eyes
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: on the game. So the home team tends to get
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a boost. You're going to put
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: some money on the Mammoth. I would not recommend putting
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: half your bankroll on any bet, but Um, I like the,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: I like the mammoth, but you know, I mean, I
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: don't want to have, I could lose. It's my only
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: bet of the day. It's definitely, it obviously could lose.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: It's a risk, you know? Uh, yes. Stupid. What are
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: your suggestions, man? Um, I've been trying to like, I've
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: changed all my graphics and stuff, but yes, uh, feel free. Uh,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: let me see. Uh, what was I going to say here?
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah. I was going to talk about, uh, Akron
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: on the Akron side of things. Uh, Akron is coming
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: off Kent State, which I did say is their biggest rival,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: but they lost again by double digits there. Now Akron's
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: coming back home, and they haven't really had that many
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: home games, actually. So Akron's only had one conference home game,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: and they played pretty close against Eastern Michigan. I know
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: Ohio's better than Eastern Michigan, but all that being said, yeah,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: and plus Akron also has the same time off as Ohio.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to treat that almost like a bye,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: even though it's not a full bye. They last played
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: a week before Saturday, so they have a week and
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: a couple days off. But for Akron, I think that
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: might bust their losing momentum a little bit. You know
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: what I mean? Having extra time off could break their
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: losing momentum. So I prefer to take the points with
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: Akron in this game. I know it's really ugly, but
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: you're getting 14 points here, I think, now. It opened 11, 11.5, whatever.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Now it's 14.5, so... You're on that key two touchdown
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: number here. I would take the points, and it's a
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: low total too, although it's gone up a little bit.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: There is some money coming in on the over, pushing
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: it up to 51.5, but it's still not that high
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: of a total. So taking the points. you want to
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: take points when it's a low total because the points
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: are worth a little bit more. I think the spot
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: does set up that way. It's not going to make
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: the cut for me or anything, but 62% of the
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: tickets are on Ohio, 52% of the cash, so the
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: money is agreeing with me on the Akron side, and
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: I agree with myself. I think the Ohio look-ahead spot
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: plus the sort of inverted buy situation we have going
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: on almost, I think it makes it a decent look
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: to lean towards Akron plus the points there. Camera on
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: the ceiling. I don't even know how I would do that.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Why would that be better? I don't know. What, you're
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: calling me ugly? What are you talking about? I don't
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: know what we're talking about here. No, you don't want
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: to look down at my bald head. That makes no sense. Eternal, yes,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: thank you. Stoopy is being weird. I don't think I'm
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: going to make that particular change. What's up, man? Thanks
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. All right, but yes, I like Akron
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: plus the points in that one. And then the other
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: game is a more competitive game, as I mentioned. This
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: is the ESPN game at 8 p.m., Buffalo and Miami, Ohio.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: And as I said, I think Buffalo is... A little
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: bit more, you know, fraudulent, if you want to call
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: it that, as far as the teams that have one
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: or zero losses in the conference. I think Buffalo is
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: the lesser out of all those teams. And you can
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: see the odds makers are kind of telling you that, too,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: because Miami, Ohio is a six-point favorite here at home.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: So they're telling you they're the better team. They're getting
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: more than home field advantage here. But I actually don't
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: prefer the Miami, Ohio side in this one. Buffalo, I
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: think both of these teams also played last year. Saturday.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: So these teams also have the same amount of time off,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit extra time off. So yes, for Buffalo,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: it could be a little bit of a momentum disruptor
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: here because they had won three games in a row.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: But the thing about Buffalo is they... They had that
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: win over Toledo, which was a really big win for Buffalo.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: That was a big upset win. Toledo is definitely better
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: than they are fairly significantly. But then they didn't really
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: completely suffer the letdown after that. They were able to
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: still beat UMass after that. I think that game actually
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: went into overtime, though. Then they kind of scraped by
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: a bad Bowling Green team in their last game. So
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's coming off of two games where they really should
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: have done better. UMass, I mean, I know their record's okay,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: but they're not good. Bowling Green's also not good. So
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Buffalo really should have won those games more easily, and
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: they didn't. So Buffalo may still be pretty focused on
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: this game. And for Miami, Ohio... Well, I think they
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: are the better team, and Miami-Ohio's coming off kind of
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: a lackluster performance as well in Central Michigan. Central Michigan,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: not a good team either. Miami-Ohio does still have this
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: big game looming on deck against Ohio, so there is
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: the danger of possibly looking ahead to that Ohio game.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: Ohio's the only undefeated team left in the MAAC as
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: far as conference record is concerned. And that's a massive rivalry, too.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: So that would be my worry that Miami, Ohio has
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: a look ahead here. But because they're hosting an ESPN game,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: that may keep them focused enough here. And they do
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: need to keep winning. And Buffalo is right there. Buffalo
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: is actually ahead of them in the standings right now.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: Buffalo has whatever the tiebreaker is. against them because Buffalo
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: is tied with them but listed ahead of them. So
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: that may keep Miami, Ohio focused enough. I slightly lean
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: Buffalo in this one. Miami, Ohio is public, 62% of
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: the tickets, only 54% of the cash. If you like Buffalo, though,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: you could have gotten seven. You could have gotten on
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: that key number. But that number has dropped to about six.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: You're not going to get a seven again on this.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: Even if the public comes in on Miami, Ohio, it's
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: not going to get back to seven. But that does
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: sort of indicate that Buffalo is the correct side here
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: because if the odds makers have dropped the number off
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: that key number, even though the public is on the
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: side of the favorite. You know that that means that
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: there's real money, like respected money, driving that number towards Buffalo,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: because that's the only thing that could counter the public money.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: So I think that's what's going on here. I think
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: the professional money is actually on Buffalo in this one.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: The total's also low. It's in the mid-40s. So taking
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: points makes a little bit more sense when the total
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: looks like that. Even if the money appears to be
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: coming in slightly towards the over, but Yeah, I like
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: both underdogs here, but I think Akron is the better
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: of the two, though, because they're a home underdog, a
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: more ugly underdog that's way easier to overlook, plus the
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: sort of bye disruption angle. Whereas for the other game here,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: both teams are on win streaks right now, so they
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: could both have their momentum disrupted a little bit, so
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: that kind of negates itself. But there is more of
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: an argument for Miami-Ohio to not overlook this game than
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: there is for Ohio. I think the team that's most
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: likely to overlook the game tonight is Ohio, is what
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: I'm saying. So out of all those games, I think
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: Akron plus the points is the strongest play. I do
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: lean towards Buffalo slightly as well, though, plus the points. Yes, yes,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: you got voted off. You just got knocked out of Survivor. Stupid. Yes,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: it is better to follow the professional money, yes, because
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: the people that do it for a living to actually
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: profit and that are really serious about it, yeah, you've
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: got to respect that money. But what I will say
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: is you don't want to follow it to the point
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: where you're getting a worse number. Like here, getting six
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: is not as good as getting seven. So then it
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: kind of comes down to if you make your own
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: numbers on this, is that number still okay enough for you?
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? like losing that key number
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: is not great. So it's, you don't want to always
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: chase steam. Like, so the professional money is right more
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: often than it isn't. But if the line moves like,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: you know, off of a key number, now you're not
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: getting that best number anymore. Sometimes it is better to
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: just not play that game. You know what I mean?
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say to fade the professionals cause they know
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: what they're doing, but you might not want to join
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: them if the line has moved too far, um, you know,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: away from where you have a real advantage. You know
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: what I mean? Um, But yes, it is better. And
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: the answer to the second question is also yes. The
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: professional bettors sometimes are on the same side as the public, yes.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: That also does happen. And I would say when that's
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: the case, I do think that the play is a
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: little bit less strong when that's the case. I do
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: look for spots where the professionals are disagreeing with the public.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: I do like those the most. But, yeah, you know,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: occasionally I'll occasionally side with the public and I'll occasionally
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: go against where the professional money is as well. So, yeah.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Um yeah all of those things that can definitely happen
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: uh but yes as far as following the professional money
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: generally yes you want to side with where the professionals
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: are because they really know what they're doing but again
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: line value is also a factor and if the line
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: has moved too far sometimes it's better to just leave
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: it alone you know what i mean So I'm passing
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: on all of these games here today. So my only
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: play today, before I get out of here and unfortunately
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: go vote, let's... Dude, if we can repeal... If this
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: gun legislation repeal somehow gets through in Massachusetts, that would
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: be one of the biggest wins in my lifetime in Massachusetts.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: I'm serious, man. It's like the old Bill Weld-era gun
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: ban stuff, I'm pretty sure, is up for possible repeal
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: on the ballot today. That's insane. But I don't trust
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: democracy and whatever anyway, so they might rig the whole
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: thing anyway, but... There's that, but then Massachusetts is also
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: trying to recriminalize marijuana as well, which I'm going to
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: vote to not have that happen as well, which... I mean,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not a pot fan or anything, but no, I
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: don't think it should be criminalized either. Um, Massachusetts laws
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: are still not good. I don't want to get into
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: politics really on the show, but, uh, the laws that
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: we have in place are still not really that good,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: but going back to completely outlawing, it is also not good.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: So that's not going to, that is not going to
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: win anyway, though. I know nobody's going to vote to
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: recriminalize it. It's fucking insane.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: There's no way that's going to pass, but yeah. Yes.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Uh, I don't vote for the lesser of
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: two evils unless there's like really a significant difference there.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: And there just isn't in any of these races. So yeah,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: none of these people are worth voting for in Massachusetts.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: It's just all terrible Democrats that are going to win anyway.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: Although not, I mean, governor, our governors are usually Republicans though,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: but they're, you know, bad establishment Republicans, but we usually
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: have a Republican governor. Um, doesn't really change a thing
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: though in fact like i said bill weld is the
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: guy that instituted the clinton era gun ban that we're
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: trying to repeal with the ballot question today pretty much
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: and he was a republican so yeah um and we
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: had mitt romney was our governor at one point too
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: and he basically uh installed obamacare light here when he
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: was governor so yeah that's great um Yes, thank you, sir. Well,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. We get some agreement with my politics here,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: although maybe that's why you follow me on Twitter, though.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: Speaking of which, yes, Learn to Tote on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: sort of, trying to kind of ramp that up, although
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: they've been limiting me because I'm a new account, I think,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: so we'll see. I'm trying to get this show out
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: there in a bunch of different ways. So, yes, if
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: you like the show, tell more people about it. Let's,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: you know, get this thing going. Yeah, let's get this
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: thing going, man. Get more views on it. Like, subscribe, comment,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: all that stuff. Let's pump this show up, baby. Tell
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: everybody about it. We are on audio as well, so
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: you can listen on audio every day. Not during your commute,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: because I do the show a little bit too late,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: but you know. while you're at work, like during lunch
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: or whatever, something like that if you want to. Although
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a long show to do
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: during lunch, but you know what I mean. Hopefully people
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: get some use out of it. But yes, we're on
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: all the audio platforms pretty much. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, all
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: that stuff. iHeartRadio, yeah, whatever. Covered in Uke is my
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: ukulele cover channel on YouTube. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if you
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: want to support me that way. Don't worry, my beard
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: will come back in eventually. I shaved it for my
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: Jean Philanthrope Halloween costume. If people saw that, that is
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: out there on Twitter as well. Oh, and we have
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: Loser Cast tonight. We'll have a new episode of Loser Cast,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: which unfortunately, because it's Election Day, means there are probably
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: going to be a lot of political losers that we
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: pick tonight, and I might also be on that train.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: We will see, but check that out at 10 p.m.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: Eastern time. That's the comedy podcast that I'm on. You know,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: I don't want to.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: Let's just say I miss Tower Gang, though. Let's just
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: say that. That's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out this morning. Yeah, everybody, you know,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: regulars and new people. Maybe the new people will become regulars.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: I love it. Thanks, everybody. Not going to have the
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: camera looking down on my bald head. Peace.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 5: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: You do not have to lose this round alone.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 5: hold on Let me pull you out That bad luck
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 5: fights hard But it don't get the crown Hold on,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 5: hold on Stay with me now
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo