Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 58: Trump’s Enemies List: Harvard, Meta, and Iran

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Episode 58: Trump’s Enemies List: Harvard, Meta, and Iran · Trend Watch

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Ready to take a deeper look at where history,
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politics,
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and economics all intersect?
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SPEAKER_01: Well, then you've come to the right place.
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SPEAKER_01: Each week,
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SPEAKER_01: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
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SPEAKER_01: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
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SPEAKER_01: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
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SPEAKER_01: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is Trend Watch.
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SPEAKER_01: Today is April 17th, 2025, and this is Trend Watch.
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SPEAKER_01: Welcome back, everyone.
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SPEAKER_01: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
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SPEAKER_01: So Christian, how was your week?
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SPEAKER_00: My week's been pretty good, Neil.
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You know,
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I often frequent the climbing gym where I usually go bouldering
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without a harness.
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But this week I've been trying out the top roping,
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you know,
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where you're actually strapped in.
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SPEAKER_00: I've learned how to belay my partner and got certified.
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SPEAKER_01: You know, rock climbing gym, certification, a lot of belaying ropes.
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Christian,
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I got to tell you about what my brother and I used to do in the
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High Sierra.
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SPEAKER_01: when I was in my late teens.
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SPEAKER_01: And I hate even to think about it because when I do,
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SPEAKER_01: it brings adrenaline into my body,
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SPEAKER_01: climbing sheer granite cliffs with no ropes,
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SPEAKER_01: no nothing.
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SPEAKER_01: And of course, we were five days from civilization.
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SPEAKER_01: So that if we had been hurt, there was nothing you could do.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's...
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SPEAKER_01: This is a very millennial experience.
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SPEAKER_01: It's the thrill.
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SPEAKER_01: It's a great,
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SPEAKER_01: but it's a great,
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but I love the idea that you're bouldering because that does
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suggest you're willing
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SPEAKER_01: to go without the belaying ropes,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
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SPEAKER_00: That's right, yeah.
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SPEAKER_00: The walls at their peak can get up to about 20 feet.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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SPEAKER_00: You can take a tumble.
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SPEAKER_01: It might not kill you, but it's certainly going to hurt.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
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And that's enough to really to get you going and get you
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reaching and get you
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SPEAKER_01: accessing strength in your arms that otherwise you might not have had,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
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SPEAKER_01: That's what adrenaline does, right?
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SPEAKER_00: Definitely pushes you.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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SPEAKER_01: So this is a little Gen X learning for you.
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SPEAKER_01: You know what?
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SPEAKER_01: It's like Batman rises again, right?
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SPEAKER_01: Without that adrenaline, you just can't have peak performance.
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SPEAKER_01: Anyway,
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SPEAKER_01: as always,
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SPEAKER_01: let me remind all of you listeners,
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SPEAKER_01: if you like this podcast,
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SPEAKER_01: please go ahead,
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SPEAKER_01: share it with your friends and family,
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SPEAKER_01: repost it on social media.
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SPEAKER_01: I do want to get directly into today's podcast.
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SPEAKER_01: As always, we have a lot to talk about.
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First,
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we're going to do market news and we've got stories from around
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the world.
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SPEAKER_01: Maybe I should just
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as I always do,
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just sort of summarize up front what we're going to be talking about.
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SPEAKER_01: Ian,
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SPEAKER_01: a lot of the news is around this issue,
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SPEAKER_01: so we'll be covering it eight days into Trump's 90-day tariff pause.
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Foreign delegates have come to Washington to negotiate a new
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trade framework,
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SPEAKER_01: but none of them really knows what Trump wants from them.
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SPEAKER_01: So we're going to talk a little bit about that.
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SPEAKER_01: What does Trump want at the end of the day?
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SPEAKER_01: On Monday, in a Washington, D.C.
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SPEAKER_01: court,
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SPEAKER_01: the FTC laid out its case against Meta,
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targeting its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp as
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monopoly violations of the
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SPEAKER_01: Sherman Antitrust Act.
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SPEAKER_01: We're going to look at that.
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The Trump administration has frozen approximately $2 billion in
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federal funding to Harvard,
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SPEAKER_01: Harvard University,
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and is threatening to freeze Moore in its campaign to dismantle
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Harvard's DEI
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programs and enforce other sweeping changes on that Ivy League university.
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SPEAKER_01: The D.C.
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district court's efforts to intervene in the Kilmar Garcia
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deportation case
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SPEAKER_01: triggered an unsigned opinion by the U.S.
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Supreme Court that has both sides,
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Democrats and the Trump administration,
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claiming victory.
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SPEAKER_01: So we'll certainly look at, you know, which side has more of a case.
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SPEAKER_01: And going abroad, the U.S.
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SPEAKER_01: negotiations with Iran and the Kingdom of Oman
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SPEAKER_01: have picked up speed.
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And there is evidence of a widening split within the Trump
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administration over
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SPEAKER_01: whether and when the U.S.
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should be prepared to take out Iran's nuclear capability
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through military means.
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SPEAKER_01: And finally,
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SPEAKER_01: we're going to go to Romania,
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SPEAKER_01: where a couple of weeks from now on May 4th,
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SPEAKER_01: that nation will hold a rerun of the election.
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SPEAKER_01: It canceled back in November due to Russian interference.
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SPEAKER_01: I think we all kind of recall that.
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SPEAKER_01: We certainly covered it.
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SPEAKER_01: And this time,
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SPEAKER_01: alt-right candidates are polling well ahead of candidates for other...
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SPEAKER_01: well ahead of candidates for pro-European parties.
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SPEAKER_01: So we'll look at the significance of that and what may explain it.
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SPEAKER_01: And with that as a preview...
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SPEAKER_01: I'm going to turn it over to you, Christian.
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SPEAKER_01: Tell us what's going on in the markets.
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SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil.
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SPEAKER_00: Well, the S&P 500 closed up 0.13%.
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SPEAKER_00: Really actually came down in the last couple hours of trading.
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SPEAKER_00: But over the last five days, it's up 0.28%.
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SPEAKER_00: So pretty flat on the week.
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SPEAKER_00: We go to the global Dow,
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SPEAKER_00: which technically has a few more minutes left until it closes,
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SPEAKER_00: but not much should change.
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SPEAKER_00: That is up 0.5%.
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SPEAKER_00: And over the last five days is up 2.98%.
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SPEAKER_00: So looking a little better.
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SPEAKER_00: And for the VIX,
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SPEAKER_00: Neil,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: right when we were talking before recording,
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SPEAKER_00: it actually closed below 30,
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SPEAKER_00: came in at 29.79.
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SPEAKER_00: Again, lower that we've been seeing earlier in the week.
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SPEAKER_00: And if we go to the 10-year treasury, that is at 4.33%.
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SPEAKER_00: That is down 10.6 basis points over the last five days.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it went a little bit back up today, right?
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SPEAKER_01: But it's...
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But it's certainly been easing off from where it was when we
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had those reciprocal tariffs.
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SPEAKER_01: You remember that?
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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SPEAKER_01: that was a come-to-Jesus moment,
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SPEAKER_01: at least for a lot of people on Wall Street that I've talked to.
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SPEAKER_01: Look,
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SPEAKER_01: right now what we're seeing,
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SPEAKER_01: interestingly,
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SPEAKER_01: is a steepening yield curve,
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SPEAKER_01: which is typical after a long inversion.
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We've certainly seen a very long inversion with a couple of
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tiny interruptions toward the end.
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SPEAKER_01: But
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SPEAKER_01: This is typical when recession is finally on or very imminent, right?
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SPEAKER_01: We've talked about that.
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SPEAKER_01: The yield curve inversion being one of the most,
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SPEAKER_01: really by far the most reliable long-term recession indicator.
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SPEAKER_01: And when it switches back from being,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: de-inverting,
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SPEAKER_01: I should say,
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SPEAKER_01: which is now really de-inverted,
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SPEAKER_01: that's often a sign recession is on.
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SPEAKER_01: But here's what's unusual this time around, Christian.
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SPEAKER_01: Typically, the reason it de-inverts is because the Fed is cutting.
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SPEAKER_01: That's what's happening.
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SPEAKER_01: The Fed isn't cutting.
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SPEAKER_01: It's rather long-term rates, right?
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What's happening is that long-term,
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the rest of the world is taking a step back from U.S.
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SPEAKER_01: markets.
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SPEAKER_01: And I think that's what's interesting, right?
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SPEAKER_01: These long-term rates are going up because a lot of people are no longer,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: because of this whole new tariff regime,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
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SPEAKER_01: Right.
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SPEAKER_01: A lot of these big sovereign wealth funds,
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SPEAKER_01: these big traders,
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SPEAKER_01: these central banks,
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SPEAKER_01: God knows what China is doing.
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A lot of people are trying to figure out what China is doing now,
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but clearly
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SPEAKER_01: They are trying to get out of the US, not get in.
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SPEAKER_01: And I think it's also atypical that the US dollar is falling.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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SPEAKER_01: typically when we're going into recession,
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SPEAKER_01: the rest of the world is going into recession at the same time.
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I think we all recall the GFC and the dollar was rising because
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people were coming
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SPEAKER_01: into the US as a safe haven.
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Well,
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the US doesn't seem much like a safe haven to a lot of the
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world today,
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right?
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SPEAKER_01: So these are real differences.
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SPEAKER_01: They're interesting.
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SPEAKER_01: And I think it's important to keep them in mind as we sort of assess the
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SPEAKER_01: assess where we are.
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SPEAKER_01: And I should say,
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SPEAKER_01: since I did bring up the Fed and what it is or is not doing,
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I don't know if you saw Jerome Powell in a moderated discussion
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before the Economic
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SPEAKER_01: Club of Chicago.
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SPEAKER_01: This is two days ago.
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And he talked about the new tariff policies,
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and he didn't speak of them very flatteringly.
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SPEAKER_01: He said, they will pull down demand
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SPEAKER_01: They will slow down productivity growth.
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SPEAKER_01: They will slow down the economy.
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SPEAKER_01: They will make recession more likely.
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And he said they will pull us away from both of our goals
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because they will cause
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at least temporarily higher inflation and they will probably
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cause higher unemployment.
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Though he reassured the crowd there in Chicago that the
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employment situation right
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SPEAKER_01: now is of the latest indicators to look good.
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SPEAKER_01: And he said there's going to be a tension between these two goals.
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SPEAKER_01: And that puts us in a difficult spot.
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SPEAKER_01: I think you saw what Trump's reaction was.
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SPEAKER_01: I can't wait to fire this guy.
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SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
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SPEAKER_01: That's not exactly what he said.
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SPEAKER_01: But I can't wait to get rid of him.
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He can't do that,
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I think,
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until Powell's term expires,
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which is in the midterm year,
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right?
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SPEAKER_01: That's going to be 2026th.
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SPEAKER_00: Right.
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SPEAKER_00: I would add,
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SPEAKER_00: Neil,
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SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
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SPEAKER_00: right before we came on,
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there was a Wall Street Journal report that Trump does
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supposedly keep talking
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SPEAKER_00: about firing him early.
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SPEAKER_00: He does.
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SPEAKER_01: And Powell actually mentioned that.
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SPEAKER_01: Powell said, my independence is protected by law.
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SPEAKER_01: I can only be fired for cause.
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SPEAKER_01: But then he said...
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that this whole issue of whether the president can fire heads
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or commissioners of
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SPEAKER_01: independent agencies is coming before SCOTUS.
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So whether or not the Supreme Court endorses the theory of the
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unitary executive,
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SPEAKER_01: and that is the overthrow of Humphrey's executor,
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SPEAKER_01: we've talked about that often,
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SPEAKER_01: right,
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SPEAKER_01: on this podcast,
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SPEAKER_01: So is Powell acknowledged that he's going to watch that case?
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SPEAKER_01: Now, who knows when that's going to come up?
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SPEAKER_01: That's going to be probably many months from now.
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SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
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But the case is going to be revolve around either or or maybe
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both of them at once.
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The firing of the NLRB Commissioner Gwynne Wilcox and the
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firing of the MSPB
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SPEAKER_01: Commissioner Kathy Harris.
10:26
SPEAKER_01: Right.
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SPEAKER_01: And that is the case.
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SPEAKER_01: Right.
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SPEAKER_01: We've been following that.
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SPEAKER_01: We've been talking about that.
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SPEAKER_01: And the real question is how far the Supreme Court's going to go.
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To allow the president to fire the Fed chair,
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that would be the ultimate victory for the White.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean, let me put it this way.
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SPEAKER_01: If Trump could fire this semi-autonomous agency head,
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SPEAKER_01: Right.
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SPEAKER_01: Because of the theory of unitary executive,
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SPEAKER_01: that means Trump could fire virtually anybody,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
10:57
SPEAKER_01: I mean, that would be the ultimate victory, right?
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SPEAKER_01: It's easy to imagine the Supreme Court saying,
11:03
SPEAKER_01: yeah,
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SPEAKER_01: here's some commissions where he could intervene,
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SPEAKER_01: but here are a few that are still sacrosanct,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
11:10
SPEAKER_01: I mean, that would be what you'd expect.
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SPEAKER_01: I would be surprised if the Supreme Court,
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SPEAKER_01: what it eventually rules,
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SPEAKER_01: allows the president to fire the Fed chairman.
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SPEAKER_01: But
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SPEAKER_01: Anything can happen.
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SPEAKER_01: And right now,
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I think the Supreme Court and certainly Roberts is trying to
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delay all of these
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SPEAKER_01: huge rulings for as long as possible.
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SPEAKER_01: But we can probably have the occasion to talk about that later on.
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SPEAKER_01: So with that, let's start in.
11:37
SPEAKER_01: Let's start in, I guess, our first story.
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SPEAKER_01: That's what's happening over the 90-day tariff pause.
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SPEAKER_00: Yes,
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SPEAKER_00: Neil,
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we are eight days into the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause and
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countries are
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SPEAKER_00: beginning to negotiate with the White House.
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SPEAKER_00: Currently,
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Japanese officials are in Washington talking with Treasury
11:55
Secretary Scott Besant
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SPEAKER_00: and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
11:59
And during the negotiations,
12:01
President Trump himself appeared on Wednesday.
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SPEAKER_00: We also know today he met with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney,
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SPEAKER_00: who was representing the EU during trade talks.
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But the big question in everyone's mind is,
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what is Trump actually looking for?
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SPEAKER_00: There's been a few reports of different things.
12:20
One thing that we know is the administration wants the trade
12:24
partners to limit
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SPEAKER_00: their dealings with China.
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SPEAKER_00: This includes barring China from routing exports to their countries,
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SPEAKER_00: blocking Chinese companies from setting up operations to sidestep U.S.
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SPEAKER_00: tariffs,
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and resisting the influx of low-cost Chinese industrial
12:40
products into other
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SPEAKER_00: countries' markets.
12:42
We also know some other demands that have come up during the
12:46
negotiations are these
12:47
SPEAKER_00: countries buying more liquefied natural gas from the US,
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SPEAKER_00: lowering taxes on US tech companies,
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limiting tariffs on US exports and even direct foreign
12:58
investment in the US itself.
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SPEAKER_00: Neil,
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as we're getting these little tidbits of information of what
13:05
the White House wants,
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SPEAKER_00: what do you make of this ultimate strategy?
13:10
SPEAKER_01: That is the huge question.
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SPEAKER_01: What is the ultimate goal?
13:14
SPEAKER_01: As I say,
13:14
what's really interesting about the Trump administration on so
13:17
many fronts,
13:18
SPEAKER_01: but particularly this front,
13:19
SPEAKER_01: right?
13:20
is not so much are his tactics going to get him to the goal,
13:24
but what is his goal,
13:25
right?
13:26
SPEAKER_01: And I think there are two kind of – let me paint them in extremes, right?
13:32
Two extreme interpretations of what Trump's goal is and then
13:36
add a few nuances,
13:38
right?
13:38
Some have said – and there is a camp in the Trump
13:41
administration that's kind of more toward –
13:43
SPEAKER_01: toward this line, right, that this is all a negotiating tactic, right?
13:49
SPEAKER_01: What the U.S.
13:50
SPEAKER_01: wants or should want is really free trade, right?
13:54
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
13:54
SPEAKER_01: Trump always complains about how other countries are taking advantage of,
13:58
SPEAKER_01: they're raping and pillaging us.
14:00
SPEAKER_01: You remember that?
14:01
SPEAKER_01: What he said about the poor Canadians, right?
14:04
SPEAKER_01: Raping and pillaging.
14:05
SPEAKER_01: But basically, they're taking advantage of us, right?
14:08
SPEAKER_01: So if it's that,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: you could say,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: well,
14:10
what if he negotiates and gets the partner to just get rid of
14:14
all tariffs?
14:16
SPEAKER_01: Get rid of all non-trade barriers.
14:18
SPEAKER_01: Well, it's hard to get rid of all of them.
14:20
SPEAKER_01: I mean, non-trade barriers could be anything.
14:22
SPEAKER_01: Just could be some regulation you don't like.
14:24
SPEAKER_01: You know, deal with intellectual property theft, right?
14:27
SPEAKER_01: IP theft.
14:28
SPEAKER_01: That's apparently another issue there.
14:30
SPEAKER_01: In other words,
14:31
What if the country just falls down before Trump and says,
14:36
OK,
14:36
we'll get we'll give everything.
14:37
SPEAKER_01: It's like Vietnam, right?
14:39
Apparently got to the way to say we'll get rid of all tariffs
14:42
against the US.
14:43
SPEAKER_01: Now,
14:43
SPEAKER_01: with Vietnam,
14:44
SPEAKER_01: obviously,
14:44
you've got the special problem of relabeling or refitting
14:48
Chinese exports.
14:49
SPEAKER_01: So that's another big problem.
14:51
SPEAKER_01: But let's just say we're dealing with them.
14:54
SPEAKER_01: the UK, you know, or, or I don't know, Brazil or something, right?
14:59
If they just say no tariffs at all,
15:02
we just,
15:02
whatever you want,
15:03
we'll just open up our economy.
15:05
SPEAKER_01: Will you then the United States, you know, open up your economy too?
15:10
SPEAKER_01: Well,
15:11
Well,
15:11
first of all,
15:12
this leads to a world which almost certainly Trump does not want,
15:16
right?
15:16
SPEAKER_01: No tariff revenue, right?
15:18
SPEAKER_01: Further globalization, right?
15:21
SPEAKER_01: Without any tariffs or barriers, we'd be more globalized than ever.
15:24
SPEAKER_01: The potential erosion of even more manufacturing jobs,
15:28
SPEAKER_01: increased supply chain dependence,
15:30
SPEAKER_01: perhaps increased national security vulnerability,
15:33
SPEAKER_01: right?
15:34
SPEAKER_01: And...
15:35
more issues with regarding Chinese imports and obviously no
15:39
change or no change in
15:41
SPEAKER_01: the current account deficit.
15:42
I think much more you're looking at the other side,
15:46
right,
15:46
which is a very different idea.
15:48
SPEAKER_01: And that is the U.S.
15:50
SPEAKER_01: doesn't really pursue free trade,
15:52
regardless of what it says is the whole problems that our
15:54
countries take advantage
15:55
SPEAKER_01: of us.
15:56
What America wants is to exercise its market power dominance
16:02
over terms of trade
16:04
SPEAKER_01: through permanent preferences,
16:06
SPEAKER_01: that is to say tariffs or import quotas,
16:09
SPEAKER_01: but I think Trump's preference is for tariffs.