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MLB + NFL Best Bets Monday 9/22/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
0:08
Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
0:10
Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
0:13
Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
0:14
Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
0:17
Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore.
0:19
Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
0:23
Speaker 1: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
0:26
Speaker 1: Own four next have not had a good season. Man
0:31
Speaker 1: with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
0:37
Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna.
0:40
Speaker 1: Burn my browins hat Man, I don't know what is
0:43
Speaker 1: going on with the Bruins.
0:44
Speaker 2: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even know.
0:47
Speaker 1: It's less it's.
0:47
Speaker 2: March ninth, I think, who even knows? Man, I don't
0:51
Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. But I don't even know
0:53
Speaker 2: what data is anymore.
0:54
Speaker 1: Man's back with you after the worst day that I
0:58
Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
1:02
Speaker 1: until I die at least oh and two.
1:05
Speaker 2: Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
1:07
Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
1:11
Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
1:13
Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:15
Speaker 1: The slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
1:20
Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:23
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
1:25
Speaker 1: other than potentially.
1:27
Speaker 2: End it all.
1:32
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. This is
1:34
Speaker 1: better off dead. Monday, September twenty seconds is gonna be
1:39
Speaker 1: a very abbreviated better off dead because there's almost nothing
1:42
Speaker 1: going on today. I'm not gonna have any plays today.
1:44
Speaker 1: There are only three baseball games. It's a small small
1:49
Speaker 1: board even for a Monday. And then there's of course
1:51
Speaker 1: the Monday night football game, which you kind of already know.
1:53
Speaker 1: My thoughts on that, we'll talk about it. I'm not
1:56
Speaker 1: gonna have a play on any of them. We did
1:57
Speaker 1: go five and oh yesterday, so nice, nice run, right now,
2:01
Speaker 1: Man ten and two over the weekend Saturday Sunday, four
2:06
Speaker 1: winning days in the last five I think, so yeah.
2:09
Speaker 2: The inverse slump continues. I don't know.
2:13
Speaker 1: We could have had every single money line underdog cash
2:16
Speaker 1: too if the Jets were able to get there.
2:18
Speaker 2: We had to the Cleveland Browns.
2:19
Speaker 1: I mean that game, it was looking maybe a little
2:22
Speaker 1: bit questionable, but green Bay couldn't score. Like I said, Browns,
2:26
Speaker 1: they played defense. Man, I thought it was going to
2:28
Speaker 1: be a low scoring game with bad offense on both sides.
2:31
Speaker 1: It was ten to nothing green Bay for.
2:33
Speaker 2: A while, but I was like, Cleveland's just got.
2:35
Speaker 1: To score anything right now in their covering so and
2:38
Speaker 1: not only did they do that, but green Bay never
2:40
Speaker 1: scored again, and Cleveland actually wound up winning the game
2:44
Speaker 1: thirteen to ten. I don't know if it was regulation
2:46
Speaker 1: or overtime, but they tied it and then won the game.
2:50
Speaker 2: The Jets.
2:51
Speaker 1: The Jets looked like they were dead after they were
2:53
Speaker 1: in a close game early in the game. I think
2:55
Speaker 1: they're winning by a field goal maybe early in the
2:57
Speaker 1: game that was tied. Then they were down, and I
3:00
Speaker 1: think they give up two touchdowns in a row, and
3:02
Speaker 1: they were down twenty to six. I'm like, all right,
3:03
Speaker 1: well this one's gonna be a loser. But no, Tyrod Taylor, baby,
3:08
Speaker 1: he's not out of it. He comes back. Jets come
3:10
Speaker 1: all the way back. They actually wind up taking the
3:12
Speaker 1: lead late in the game, which I didn't even expect that.
3:15
Speaker 1: I was just like, oh sweet, they're at least gonna
3:16
Speaker 1: cover here. Now they take the lead. I'm like, now
3:20
Speaker 1: I'm getting greed. He give me the money line win here, man,
3:22
Speaker 1: give it to me. And then of course Tampa wins
3:25
Speaker 1: on a last second field goal. Tampa, They're not as
3:28
Speaker 1: good as they look, man, I'm telling you right now.
3:31
Speaker 1: They're the first team in NFL history to win with
3:36
Speaker 1: game winning drives in the final I think minute or
3:39
Speaker 1: something of all three games.
3:40
Speaker 2: Something like that.
3:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, the first team to be three to zero after
3:45
Speaker 1: losing in the final minute of all three games, whatever
3:48
Speaker 1: it is, something like that. Yeah, So you know my
3:51
Speaker 1: thoughts on that. I don't think Tampa is that good.
3:54
Speaker 1: And then Carolina I mean yeah, I mean I thought
3:58
Speaker 1: they would cover, but I didn't expect them to be
4:00
Speaker 1: Atlanta thirty to not.
4:01
Speaker 2: Fing or whatever it was. I mean, just ridiculous.
4:04
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, that's a bit of an outlier, let's
4:08
Speaker 1: say so. But yeah, I mean, I like being right.
4:11
Speaker 1: So we had all that, and then Baseball was correct
4:13
Speaker 1: as well to and zero baseball Yankees in Baltimore.
4:16
Speaker 2: That was a one nothing game. I think at the
4:18
Speaker 2: end of five innings.
4:20
Speaker 1: I don't even remember which team was winning, but I
4:22
Speaker 1: was hoping Baltimore would win the game. I think the
4:24
Speaker 1: game went into extra innings and then the Yankees wound
4:26
Speaker 1: up scoring a bunch of runs. So I don't even
4:28
Speaker 1: know if the full game, even though stayed under actually
4:31
Speaker 1: in that one, even though it obviously should have because
4:33
Speaker 1: I think it.
4:34
Speaker 2: Was one to one at the end of nine.
4:35
Speaker 1: It was like that game the other day that was
4:37
Speaker 1: one to one that I had the underrun and the
4:38
Speaker 1: ninth inning and.
4:39
Speaker 2: It fucking lost.
4:42
Speaker 1: Hopefully, if you guys had the full game under in
4:43
Speaker 1: that one, it didn't lose. But I did warn at
4:46
Speaker 1: least about the bullpens. But I mean, if it's one
4:48
Speaker 1: to one after nine, there's absolutely no way you should
4:51
Speaker 1: lose one hunder on a game like that. It's the
4:53
Speaker 1: ghost Runners again. They need to go away terrible rule.
4:57
Speaker 1: And then Cincinnati, I think one one to nothing.
5:00
Speaker 2: I think they just hung on.
5:01
Speaker 1: To the one nothing win if I'm not mistaken. So
5:03
Speaker 1: Cincinnati they've pulled into a tie.
5:06
Speaker 2: Man.
5:07
Speaker 1: The wildcard race is kind of ridiculous. We can pull
5:10
Speaker 1: it up right now because we don't really have a
5:11
Speaker 1: whole lot to talk about here.
5:12
Speaker 2: I can bring up the wildcard race.
5:15
Speaker 1: While we're added here where I think a couple of
5:17
Speaker 1: the games say have Actually I think only one of
5:20
Speaker 1: the games today has really any implications at all. In
5:24
Speaker 1: the wildcard standings, we do have. The Yankees look like
5:27
Speaker 1: they're pretty much at this point they've clinched the top
5:30
Speaker 1: wildcard spot. The Red Sox are in the number two spot,
5:33
Speaker 1: with Cleveland and Houston tied right behind them. Because Houston
5:37
Speaker 1: lost again, they got swept by Seattle, and I was saying,
5:40
Speaker 1: that's basically when I needed to happen as a Red
5:42
Speaker 1: Sox fan at that point, I needed one of those
5:43
Speaker 1: teams to sweep the other. Basically, Texas, I mean, you
5:47
Speaker 1: can pretty much like I said, I believe, just count
5:50
Speaker 1: them out at this point.
5:52
Speaker 2: So the American League, I mean, it is a cluster.
5:54
Speaker 1: Like I said, it's these basically you have, well, now
5:57
Speaker 1: you have four teams I guess fighting for three that's
6:00
Speaker 1: I thought it was five teams fighting fighting for three spots.
6:03
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know what I'm thinking. My
6:05
Speaker 1: mind's just oh no, it's Detroit. Detroit's the other team.
6:09
Speaker 1: But Detroit UH is still ahead of Cleveland, I think
6:12
Speaker 1: because because Cleveland lost. I think Detroit is still hanging
6:15
Speaker 1: on to one game lead.
6:17
Speaker 2: That's what it is.
6:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, Detroit, Ohn, Seattle or they're all in the mix there.
6:21
Speaker 1: It's crazy, dude. So it's really six teams fighting for
6:27
Speaker 1: I guess four playoffs.
6:29
Speaker 2: What is that? I don't even know, whatever it is,
6:30
Speaker 2: it's yeah, something like that. These four teams fustles are there.
6:34
Speaker 1: Two that are already in so actually, yeah, only one
6:37
Speaker 1: of the teams is going to be left out actually
6:38
Speaker 1: at this point, so which team is going to be?
6:41
Speaker 2: Hopefully it's not the Red Sox.
6:42
Speaker 1: And then National League Cincinnati has now pulled into a
6:47
Speaker 1: tie with the Mets and they have the tiebreaker. And
6:49
Speaker 1: by the way, I believe the Red Sox, just for
6:52
Speaker 1: your information, the Red Sox, I believe, do have the
6:54
Speaker 1: tiebreaker against Cleveland and Houston because the tie breaker is
6:57
Speaker 1: head to head record, and the Red Sox are already
7:00
Speaker 1: have won the head to head matchups. They don't play
7:02
Speaker 1: those teams again. Cincinnati appears to have the tiebreaker against
7:07
Speaker 1: the Mets here, so they've actually pulled into a tie.
7:10
Speaker 1: But with the tiebreaker, they're actually in the less wildcard
7:13
Speaker 1: spot now and Arizona is still.
7:14
Speaker 2: Refusing to go away.
7:17
Speaker 1: I think winning yesterday too, are sitting there in that
7:20
Speaker 1: last spot. Still, this is wild, man. Then the fact
7:24
Speaker 1: that the Mets might not make the playoffs is just
7:26
Speaker 1: kind of crazy. They have, as you can see, the
7:28
Speaker 1: better run differential over the Reds, the d Backs, the Giants, whatever. Yeah,
7:34
Speaker 1: and then of course, our our old pal Cleveland here
7:37
Speaker 1: had a negative run differential. The fact that they might
7:39
Speaker 1: make the playoffs is just stupid. Nate, what's up man,
7:43
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out, Tower Gang. We need to bring
7:47
Speaker 1: it back, man, Tower Gang in pc JC. What's up man,
7:50
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. But anyway, yeah, that's what's going
7:54
Speaker 1: on here. Let's get into it.
7:55
Speaker 2: Man.
7:55
Speaker 1: We have no WNBA today, which, by the way, the
7:58
Speaker 1: Indiana fever one by like double digits yesterday at Vegas.
8:02
Speaker 1: It's just it's insane. How are they doing this without Clark,
8:06
Speaker 1: without Cunningham. It's the green Dildo energy. Maybe I have
8:10
Speaker 1: no idea what's going on, but it's it is insane.
8:13
Speaker 1: What's happening with the fact that Indiana keeps winning like this?
8:18
Speaker 1: Can't can't make any sense of it. Man, But let's
8:20
Speaker 1: talk about Major League Baseball. Three games first game up
8:24
Speaker 1: is the only one at the seven pm in the
8:26
Speaker 1: seven pm slot in seven pm Eastern Washington at Atlanta.
8:31
Speaker 2: These are all new series beginning. Of course, both these teams.
8:34
Speaker 1: Are out of it, but you gotta think that I
8:37
Speaker 1: think Washington might even have a little bit more motivation
8:40
Speaker 1: here because Atlanta usually is one of the better teams
8:42
Speaker 1: in this division. So Washington, being a bottom dweller, might
8:46
Speaker 1: actually show up with a little bit more motivation here.
8:48
Speaker 1: And we saw Washington playing with motivation yesterday, by the way,
8:52
Speaker 1: against the Mets. Jacob Young, Washington center fielder. If if
8:56
Speaker 1: you haven't seen this play, go watch it. He made
8:58
Speaker 1: the most insane catch you'll probably ever see that maybe
9:03
Speaker 1: helped Washington beat the Mets. If that if that's one
9:06
Speaker 1: of the reasons why the Mets don't make the playoffs,
9:07
Speaker 1: it'll be insane. But it was a play where I
9:10
Speaker 1: think he kind of misjudged a little bit, tried to
9:12
Speaker 1: make the catch in deep center field. The ball bounced
9:15
Speaker 1: off his glove, looked like it was gonna drop to
9:18
Speaker 1: the ground, but he, like hack, he sacked it. I
9:20
Speaker 1: don't even know if he didn't intentionally or not, but
9:22
Speaker 1: it bounce off of his foot, so the ball is
9:25
Speaker 1: still like he's he can still catch it for an out, Like,
9:29
Speaker 1: as long as you catch it before it hits the ground,
9:30
Speaker 1: it's an out.
9:31
Speaker 2: So he was able to still catch it off of
9:34
Speaker 2: his foot.
9:34
Speaker 1: Basically, it was wild, man. I can't even describe it,
9:37
Speaker 1: but go watch it anyway and Landa.
9:39
Speaker 2: They're on a huge hot streak though. II.
9:42
Speaker 1: They've won eight games in a row, which I mean,
9:45
Speaker 1: they are better than the record looks, so we'll give
9:47
Speaker 1: them that.
9:47
Speaker 2: They just swept Detroit.
9:49
Speaker 1: They did sweep Washington on the road prior to that,
9:51
Speaker 1: so it is a little bit of quick revenge for
9:53
Speaker 1: Washington as well. Here a lot of times when teams
9:57
Speaker 1: got swept by a team in their home stadium and
9:59
Speaker 1: then they go out and they play that team again
10:01
Speaker 1: on the road, they tend to do a little bit better.
10:03
Speaker 1: And you know, I talk about returning home.
10:06
Speaker 2: From road trips, which is what Atlanta's doing here.
10:09
Speaker 1: You've been away from home, especially this late in the season,
10:12
Speaker 1: when you know you're not going anywhere. You just swept
10:15
Speaker 1: this Washington team. Are you really gonna give that much
10:17
Speaker 1: of a shit about Washington? I don't know, man, I mean,
10:20
Speaker 1: I know baseball streaky and wind streaks can tend to
10:23
Speaker 1: continue in a lot of cases, but in this case,
10:25
Speaker 1: I think the return home spot might be a distraction
10:28
Speaker 1: spot here. I mean it is more often than it is.
10:31
Speaker 1: And this team, when the season is basically over, you've
10:34
Speaker 1: been away. You got to get back to family life,
10:36
Speaker 1: home life, you got stuff to do. You already just
10:38
Speaker 1: beat this team every game on the road. Doesn't look
10:42
Speaker 1: like a focused spot to me for Atlanta. Washington coming
10:45
Speaker 1: in they're kind of in a letdown spot too, though
10:47
Speaker 1: they're continuing the road trip. They did just beat the
10:49
Speaker 1: Mets twice, like I said, and winning yesterday by one
10:52
Speaker 1: run including that catch by Young and center field just
10:58
Speaker 1: kind of crazy. I do think Washington will be kind
11:01
Speaker 1: of in the better spot here though, But the problem is,
11:04
Speaker 1: do you really want to fade Chris Sale here? Probably
11:07
Speaker 1: you do not. As far as the bullpens are concerned,
11:11
Speaker 1: Atlanta use a lot of their bullpen yesterday, though they
11:15
Speaker 1: used five relief pitchers, Washington actually only used Mitchell Parker,
11:19
Speaker 1: who I guess is out of the starting rotation now
11:22
Speaker 1: he's been demoted. Interesting, so Washington actually has the more
11:27
Speaker 1: rested bullpen here.
11:28
Speaker 2: Their bullpen is worse.
11:29
Speaker 1: I mean their bullpen is terrible, So do you actually
11:32
Speaker 1: have to start giving them the bullpen edge. I don't
11:34
Speaker 1: know if I would say that, but at least Atlanta's
11:36
Speaker 1: bullpen edge is a little bit negated coming into this one.
11:40
Speaker 1: Alanta does have the better offense, So yeah, situationally, I
11:44
Speaker 1: would say you might want to look towards Washington here,
11:46
Speaker 1: but Atlanta's going to be a massive favor here. They
11:49
Speaker 1: still do have the better bullpen generally, the better offense,
11:52
Speaker 1: and the way better pitcher. Mackenzie Gore's pitching for Washington.
11:57
Speaker 1: This is actually the same pitching matchup that happened in
12:00
Speaker 1: this same bitching matchup happened in that game in that
12:03
Speaker 1: series between these two teams in Washington not long ago,
12:07
Speaker 1: and Atlanta won that game five to nothing. Gore, I mean,
12:11
Speaker 1: he's got okay numbers this year, four ERA, one point
12:14
Speaker 1: three two whip. He is better on the road three
12:17
Speaker 1: point seven ERA. In that start, he didn't allow any
12:20
Speaker 1: runs against Atlanta. All the runs came against Washington's horrendous bullpen,
12:25
Speaker 1: so he actually kind of dueled Chris Sale through the
12:28
Speaker 1: first half of the game. He did walk three guys,
12:31
Speaker 1: had five strikeouts. Gore he's walking too many guys man.
12:35
Speaker 1: I mean, he has allowed two or fewer earned runs
12:37
Speaker 1: at six straight starts now, which is pretty solid, but
12:42
Speaker 1: his walk rate is still too high, so you do
12:44
Speaker 1: have to worry about that nine to five strike out
12:46
Speaker 1: walk race heer this month. Although the one point seven
12:48
Speaker 1: four ERA obviously is good, his numbers against the Braves.
12:54
Speaker 2: Not bad.
12:55
Speaker 1: In ninety six at bats, he's allowed too much power
12:57
Speaker 1: to them though, twenty six to twelve strike out walkers. Again,
13:00
Speaker 1: too many walks, two forty batting every seven to ninety
13:03
Speaker 1: three ops.
13:04
Speaker 2: So again the ops is a bit high that he's
13:07
Speaker 2: allowed there.
13:08
Speaker 1: And he is going up against Chris Sale, who, of
13:11
Speaker 1: course was still the better of the two pitchers, even
13:14
Speaker 1: though they didn't allow any runs either of them. Neither
13:17
Speaker 1: of them allowed any runs in that last game, but
13:18
Speaker 1: Sale still was the better of the two pitchers, which
13:21
Speaker 1: he is. Another really good season for him, and it's
13:23
Speaker 1: been wasted because they're not making the playoffs. Two point
13:26
Speaker 1: three five ERA one point seven whip a very similar
13:30
Speaker 1: ERA home in a way doesn't even really matter. He
13:33
Speaker 1: went eight innings in that Washington game, so he outlasted
13:36
Speaker 1: Gore by multiple innings in that game, Gore only went
13:38
Speaker 1: five and a third. Sale had nine strikeouts, no walks
13:42
Speaker 1: in that game, three hits allowed. This month, he has
13:45
Speaker 1: twenty seven strikeouts in one walk. He's allowed three or
13:48
Speaker 1: fewer earned runs in a lot of starts in a row.
13:51
Speaker 1: Going all the way back through you have to go
13:54
Speaker 1: all the way back to April when he allowed more
13:56
Speaker 1: than that little curse he was hurt in the middle
13:58
Speaker 1: of the season.
13:59
Speaker 2: He has a one point eight three ERA this month.
14:01
Speaker 1: He's obviously pitching really well.
14:05
Speaker 2: Up against Washington.
14:07
Speaker 1: He pretty much dominates them in sixty two at bats,
14:09
Speaker 1: eighteen to two strike a walk ratio one ninety four
14:11
Speaker 1: average allowed five forty one ops. So you know you're
14:16
Speaker 1: with Sale on the mound. It's a huge price on Atlanta.
14:18
Speaker 1: They're up from minus two thirty to minus two forty four.
14:21
Speaker 1: Eighty six percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of the
14:23
Speaker 1: cash is probably not accurate, but the money seems like
14:26
Speaker 1: it is coming in on the Atlanta side. I just
14:30
Speaker 1: don't think you can really jump in and try to
14:32
Speaker 1: fade Atlanta, even though the spot is not great for Atlanta,
14:36
Speaker 1: and this one it's just faded Chris Sale. I just
14:39
Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to do it. You couldn't maybe go
14:42
Speaker 1: with an under again, and I know it was a
14:43
Speaker 1: really easy under the previous game where these two pitchers
14:46
Speaker 1: matched up, there were no runs scored in the first
14:49
Speaker 1: five innings. You could do it again, though, a first
14:51
Speaker 1: five inning under here. I wouldn't really want anything to
14:53
Speaker 1: do with Washington's terrible bullpen or that Atlanta's used up bullpen.
14:58
Speaker 1: Money is coming in on the under, it's sitting at
15:00
Speaker 1: Evan actually up to juice to the over, but seventy
15:03
Speaker 1: one percent of tickets on the over eighty one percent
15:05
Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. It's gonna be a low,
15:08
Speaker 1: low total, though it's gonna be like three and a
15:10
Speaker 1: half excuse me, probably in the first five. But that's
15:13
Speaker 1: still probably the way that I would approach that game
15:16
Speaker 1: if I was gonna play it, but I will not.
15:20
Speaker 1: Milwaukee at San Diego is the only game that has
15:22
Speaker 1: really any implications, though San Diego's really almost kind of
15:25
Speaker 1: walked into the second wildcard at this point. They could
15:30
Speaker 1: potentially still win their division, I guess, but it's pretty unlikely.
15:33
Speaker 1: San Diego's were turning home from a road trip where
15:35
Speaker 1: they went to the Mets. They actually went cross country
15:38
Speaker 1: and then they just played the White Sox, So it's
15:41
Speaker 1: a difficult spot for them to returning over from a
15:43
Speaker 1: road trip, having a cross time zones, no time off.
15:47
Speaker 1: You know, you could be a little bit distracted coming home,
15:49
Speaker 1: but you are facing the team with the best record
15:51
Speaker 1: in all of baseball, which is the Milwaukee Brewers, so
15:54
Speaker 1: that might alleviate that distraction angle a little bit. Like
15:57
Speaker 1: sometimes when when you return home, you're not gonna totally
16:00
Speaker 1: be distracted when you have a really good opponent like
16:02
Speaker 1: that in Milwaukee, they kind of I think they're on
16:06
Speaker 1: cruise control a little bit right now. They did sweep
16:08
Speaker 1: Anaheim a couple series ago. They just lost to Saint Louis,
16:11
Speaker 1: which was a little bit of revenge for Saint Louis
16:14
Speaker 1: for losing at Milwaukee the prior series. Milwaukee lost yesterday,
16:19
Speaker 1: They're coming in They're having to travel out to the
16:20
Speaker 1: Pacific Coast from the Central time zone as well, so
16:23
Speaker 1: both teams are having to do that here Milwaukee, and
16:26
Speaker 1: I'm not sure they have a ton left to play
16:28
Speaker 1: for either at this point, although they are still kind
16:32
Speaker 1: of fighting with Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Think lost to Arizona.
16:35
Speaker 1: I guess today that was Arizona's win yesterday. Arizona is
16:39
Speaker 1: still fighting for a wildcard spot. Milwaukee trying to hold
16:43
Speaker 1: on to that number one spot in the National League
16:47
Speaker 1: home field and whatever that is what they still have
16:50
Speaker 1: left to play for. So yeah, both teams are kind
16:52
Speaker 1: of playing for playoff positioning, but they're not like in
16:55
Speaker 1: really urgent circumstances. As far as the bullpen, used to
16:59
Speaker 1: just concerned Milwaukee, he only used three relievers yesterday. San
17:03
Speaker 1: Diego has the better bullpen, though they used more of
17:06
Speaker 1: their relief pitchers, though the US five still probably have
17:09
Speaker 1: to give San Diego a little bit of a bullpen
17:11
Speaker 1: edgy here. Anyway, though Milwaukee has the better offense and
17:14
Speaker 1: we have a good starting pitching matchup with Freddy Peralta
17:17
Speaker 1: pitching for the Brewers.
17:19
Speaker 2: He is still their best.
17:20
Speaker 1: Starter or two point six five ERA one point oh
17:23
Speaker 1: seven whip. He isn't as good on the road though,
17:25
Speaker 1: three point seven to one ERA, but in San Diego,
17:28
Speaker 1: which is a pitcher from the park, he might pitch well.
17:30
Speaker 1: He's been good recently, man, I mean he only allowed
17:34
Speaker 1: one run over the entirety of August, which is just outrageous.
17:38
Speaker 1: He had five shutout performances in a row that had
17:41
Speaker 1: one bad start inexplicably against Texas, where I think I
17:44
Speaker 1: had an un during that game, So thanks a lot Peralta.
17:47
Speaker 1: And then he bounced back with one run, ten strikeout,
17:50
Speaker 1: two hit performance against two walk, two hit performance against Anaheim.
17:55
Speaker 1: Twenty seven to seven strike out walk ratio for him
17:57
Speaker 1: this month, very high strikeout.
18:00
Speaker 2: The walk rate.
18:00
Speaker 1: Is also too high, but the strike out rate is
18:03
Speaker 1: enormous three point three eighty ra for him this month,
18:07
Speaker 1: and he's only allowed more than one earn run once
18:09
Speaker 1: going all the way back through the beginning of August.
18:12
Speaker 1: So yeah, he's in good form right now. He's going
18:14
Speaker 1: up against San Diego. He does have good numbers against
18:18
Speaker 1: them too, pretty much dominant in sixty four at best,
18:20
Speaker 1: twenty four to five strike out walk ratio one twenty
18:23
Speaker 1: five average allot of four fifty four ops, so he
18:26
Speaker 1: does well against San Diego. San Diego's got Nick Pivetta pitching.
18:30
Speaker 1: He's having a really good season two point eight one
18:33
Speaker 1: ERA point nine to seven WIMAN. He's been their best
18:36
Speaker 1: starter this year too. He's been good at home two
18:39
Speaker 1: point two to two ERA, and this pitcher friendly environment here.
18:42
Speaker 1: His last start was a little bit shaky on the road,
18:44
Speaker 1: didn't last five in He's given three e in runs,
18:46
Speaker 1: seven hits, five strikeouts, no walks though against.
18:50
Speaker 2: The Mets, so it wasn't all bad. But this month
18:52
Speaker 2: he's still been really good.
18:53
Speaker 1: Eighteen to three, strike out walk raceio two point five
18:56
Speaker 1: five ERA, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and
18:59
Speaker 1: all but one out and going all the way back
19:01
Speaker 1: into June. So yeah, he's pitching well. I think he
19:05
Speaker 1: missed a little bit of time in there, but not much. However,
19:09
Speaker 1: going up against the Milwaukee he actually does not have
19:11
Speaker 1: good numbers against Milwaukee's sixty three at bats seventeen to
19:14
Speaker 1: eight strike a walk ratio three seventeen batting average allowed
19:18
Speaker 1: nine to thirty four ohps. So there might be a
19:20
Speaker 1: little bit of an angle here maybe to lean towards
19:23
Speaker 1: Milwaukee here. Again, I don't think either team really totally
19:27
Speaker 1: needs this like so as far as a motivation, it's
19:29
Speaker 1: just kind of ensuring that you get the playoffs spot
19:33
Speaker 1: that you're already in, which is fairly likely at this point.
19:36
Speaker 2: Anyway.
19:37
Speaker 1: San Diego's down for minus one twenty five to minus
19:39
Speaker 1: one seventeen on the money line, fifty seven percent of
19:41
Speaker 1: tickets seventy one percent of the cash on San Diego.
19:45
Speaker 1: I could see an argument for an under, even though
19:47
Speaker 1: the total is up from seven to seven. Juice to
19:49
Speaker 1: the over seventy percent of tickets on the over sixty
19:51
Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the over money kind
19:53
Speaker 1: of coming in on the under here. I mean, you
19:55
Speaker 1: have two really good pitchers going and decent bullpens least
20:00
Speaker 1: so San Diego's is good, but they're a little bit used,
20:02
Speaker 1: So I could see the argument for going under getting
20:05
Speaker 1: the key number there, But I kind of worry about Paveta.
20:08
Speaker 1: So the fact that this return home spot in Peralta
20:11
Speaker 1: is actually the better of the he has the way
20:13
Speaker 1: better matchup numbers than Paveta does. I could see potentially
20:17
Speaker 1: taking a shot with Milwaukee on the money line here,
20:20
Speaker 1: and with the more rested bullpen that they have there,
20:22
Speaker 1: you could maybe take that shot full game or first
20:25
Speaker 1: five inning. I might have a slight lean that way,
20:29
Speaker 1: but you are going up against the home road splits there.
20:32
Speaker 1: Peralta not is good on the road, as I said,
20:34
Speaker 1: and Paveta is better at home.
20:36
Speaker 2: So do with that information what you will, I guess.
20:38
Speaker 1: And then what else I was gonna say one other
20:41
Speaker 1: thing about this game, and I forget what it is.
20:43
Speaker 2: What was I gonna say? I don't even know, man,
20:47
Speaker 2: Maybe that was it. Yeah, I don't know.
20:49
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I was gonna look at their home home
20:51
Speaker 1: road dichotomy here. Milwaukee has the best road record in baseball.
20:56
Speaker 1: So even though San Diego is good at home forty
20:58
Speaker 1: seven to twenty eight, they're much better.
21:01
Speaker 2: At home than on the road.
21:02
Speaker 1: Milwaukee is one of the only they're only like three
21:05
Speaker 1: teams that I think are even above five hundred on
21:07
Speaker 1: the road. In Milwaukee is forty four and thirty four
21:10
Speaker 1: on the road, So they're road warriors. They are one
21:13
Speaker 1: of They're the best road team in baseball. So something
21:16
Speaker 1: to keep in mind there if you do like Milwaukee
21:18
Speaker 1: that and they actually hit better on the road, although
21:21
Speaker 1: I know this is a pitcher friendly park, but do
21:24
Speaker 1: with that information what you wilse If you do like Milwaukee,
21:26
Speaker 1: that's a.
21:26
Speaker 2: Little bit of a bonus there for that.
21:28
Speaker 1: And then we have Saint Louis San Francisco, two teams
21:32
Speaker 1: just kind of playing out the stretch.
21:34
Speaker 2: San Francisco's was turning over from a road trip too.
21:36
Speaker 1: They went to Arizona in LA, so they're only returning
21:38
Speaker 1: up the coast from LA staying in the Pacific time zone.
21:41
Speaker 1: But that's a big series against the Dodgers, and they
21:45
Speaker 1: did actually win yesterday to take one game in the series,
21:48
Speaker 1: so it could be a little bit of a letdown
21:50
Speaker 1: spot for San Francisco. I guess they're technically, I think,
21:53
Speaker 1: still in the wildcard race, but I think they pretty
21:56
Speaker 1: much know they're not going to get there, so it
21:59
Speaker 1: is a return home spot coming off a big series.
22:02
Speaker 1: Maybe they will kind of overlook this Saint Louis team,
22:04
Speaker 1: which have them in the Saint Louis team, they're they're
22:08
Speaker 1: out of it. They haven't been playing well for a
22:09
Speaker 1: while now. Their hitting has been awful recently. So I
22:12
Speaker 1: don't have it up right now because I don't know
22:13
Speaker 1: which of these teams is actually the worst offense at
22:16
Speaker 1: this point. They're both pretty bad offensively, but probably Saint
22:19
Speaker 1: Louis is even worse. Saint Louis is coming off a
22:22
Speaker 1: big series themselves.
22:23
Speaker 2: Though against Milwaukee.
22:26
Speaker 1: They are going out on the road to Sometimes when
22:27
Speaker 1: you start a road trip, you are focus just because
22:31
Speaker 1: you want to kick the road trip off on the
22:33
Speaker 1: right foot, but it could be a letdown spot because
22:36
Speaker 1: they did just beat Milwaukee and get revenge. That was
22:38
Speaker 1: a big divisional series for them. With nothing really to
22:41
Speaker 1: play for him on the season, they showed up for
22:43
Speaker 1: that series.
22:44
Speaker 2: So I don't really love the spot that either of
22:46
Speaker 2: these teams is in.
22:47
Speaker 1: Either San Francisco has the better real of the two bullpens,
22:52
Speaker 1: but it's close. You have two good bullpens and two
22:54
Speaker 1: bad offenses here, so that seems to kind.
22:57
Speaker 2: Of have the makings of an under looking the starting pitching.
23:00
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe maybe it is worth considering Michael mcgrievous
23:04
Speaker 1: pitching for Saint Louis four point eighty RRA, one point
23:07
Speaker 1: two whip not terrible, two point five R on the road,
23:11
Speaker 1: so he's been better on the road, and this is
23:13
Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park here, he's allowed one or fewer earned.
23:16
Speaker 2: Runs and three of his last four starts.
23:19
Speaker 1: The problem is the start that wasn't good was against
23:21
Speaker 1: San Francisco. I gave up six earned runs at home
23:24
Speaker 1: to them in four innings. That was a bad outing
23:27
Speaker 1: for him. Maybe he'll do better this time against something
23:30
Speaker 1: that's just kind of weird that San Francisco just was
23:33
Speaker 1: the only game recently where he was awful. This month,
23:36
Speaker 1: he's been pretty good otherwise. He has a three point
23:38
Speaker 1: seven to one ERA even including that outing in thirteen
23:41
Speaker 1: to four strego walk ratio is not bad either, so
23:44
Speaker 1: he is in pretty decent form right now.
23:48
Speaker 2: But against San Francisco he gets bombed.
23:50
Speaker 1: I mean most of it was that one start though
23:52
Speaker 1: twenty seven at bats, seven to one stregout walk ratio
23:55
Speaker 1: is good, but a three seventy batting average allowed one
23:58
Speaker 1: thousand and sixty oh ps. So he doesn't do well
24:00
Speaker 1: against Sar Francisco. Didn't do well in that starts. That's
24:03
Speaker 1: my hesitation I have here. I was considering maybe an
24:06
Speaker 1: under in this game. Both pitchers are actually in decent
24:09
Speaker 1: form right now. Both bullpends are good, but McGreevy his
24:12
Speaker 1: numbers against San Francisco just worry me. Man, Justin Verlander
24:16
Speaker 1: is pitching for the Giants. Don't know if he's gonna
24:19
Speaker 1: retire or not. So if this is his last start,
24:21
Speaker 1: he hasn't announced it, I don't think.
24:22
Speaker 2: But if this is his.
24:23
Speaker 1: Last start, which I don't know, if it, I don't
24:26
Speaker 1: know if how many games will left on the schedule,
24:28
Speaker 1: if he would be scheduled to pitch again or not,
24:31
Speaker 1: if this is his last start or his last home start,
24:33
Speaker 1: whatever it might be. They're probably gonna finish the season
24:36
Speaker 1: at home, though, I would imagine, but you gotta imagine
24:38
Speaker 1: that if he's gonna retire, it's gonna be this big
24:41
Speaker 1: thing for his last start, because he's gonna.
24:43
Speaker 2: Be in the Hall of Fame, So we'll see.
24:44
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's gonna be this game or not, though,
24:47
Speaker 1: But overall, he said, an okay season given.
24:49
Speaker 2: That he's forty two years old.
24:51
Speaker 1: Three point seventy five ERA one point three to four
24:54
Speaker 1: whip is too high, though he is better at home
24:56
Speaker 1: three point five to six homey RA. He's been good
25:01
Speaker 1: over the last bunch of starts. He's allowed one or
25:04
Speaker 1: fewer on runs, and four starts in a row, he's
25:07
Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer in all but one start going
25:10
Speaker 1: all the way back into mid August.
25:13
Speaker 2: He's pitching pretty well right now for the most part.
25:15
Speaker 1: Zero point four to five ERA this month, including starts
25:18
Speaker 1: against the Dodgers and Arizona. Thirteen to six strike at
25:21
Speaker 1: walk ratio is good, though it's too many walks.
25:24
Speaker 2: Which has kind of been his issue.
25:26
Speaker 1: He doesn't strike out as many guys now, of course,
25:28
Speaker 1: but he's still pitching pretty effectively. Nonetheless, and his game
25:32
Speaker 1: against Saint Louis, he did well in that series against
25:34
Speaker 1: Saint Louis. He shut them out for six innings, had
25:37
Speaker 1: six strikeouts, no walks, so that was one of his
25:39
Speaker 1: better starts of the season.
25:41
Speaker 2: He does well.
25:42
Speaker 1: Against Saint Louis, although not as well as you would think. Actually,
25:45
Speaker 1: actually he doesn't do that.
25:46
Speaker 2: What am I saying?
25:47
Speaker 1: He actually doesn't do that well against them. He did
25:49
Speaker 1: well in that last start, and including that last start,
25:52
Speaker 1: he actually doesn't have great numbers against him. In forty
25:54
Speaker 1: one at bats eight to two strike a walk race,
25:56
Speaker 1: you're two sixty eight averages, all right, but eight eighty
25:59
Speaker 1: eight oh pm. He's allowed four home runs to them,
26:02
Speaker 1: including two to Gorman. But last time out he did
26:04
Speaker 1: pretty much dominate them. So all that being considered, I mean,
26:10
Speaker 1: it looks like an under type of game to me,
26:11
Speaker 1: But I just worry. I kind of worry about both
26:13
Speaker 1: starting pitchers, so I can't really do it. Totals at
26:16
Speaker 1: seven and a half, so it is a low total.
26:18
Speaker 1: All three games have low totals today. I mean, all
26:22
Speaker 1: three of them, just looking at the starting pitching matchups
26:24
Speaker 1: do look like they have kind of under makings to them.
26:28
Speaker 1: But I still think the best one is actually Washing
26:30
Speaker 1: in Atlanta. First five under. If I was gonna play anything,
26:33
Speaker 1: it might be that, but you'd have to go under
26:35
Speaker 1: three and a half, so I worry about that. In
26:37
Speaker 1: the San Francisco game, San Francisco's up for minus are
26:39
Speaker 1: down for minus one forty to minus one thirty eight
26:42
Speaker 1: up now it's back up to one forty. I guess
26:44
Speaker 1: eighty five percent of tickets ninety five percent of the
26:46
Speaker 1: cash on them, so they look public, but they have
26:48
Speaker 1: some of the money on them too. I mean, I
26:50
Speaker 1: guess they technically are the team that isn't mathematically eliminated
26:53
Speaker 1: and have something to play for. I guess, but that's
26:56
Speaker 1: about it. And then yeah, sixty seven percent of tickets,
26:59
Speaker 1: only sixty percent of the cash on the over some
27:01
Speaker 1: money kind of coming in towards the under there do
27:04
Speaker 1: what that would you will?
27:05
Speaker 2: And then we do have Monday night.
27:07
Speaker 1: Football, which I should have left that up because I
27:09
Speaker 1: should go to the National.
27:11
Speaker 2: Football League Schedule page.
27:12
Speaker 1: Year because I like to look at how this matchup
27:15
Speaker 1: kind of pans out here. We had a good day
27:19
Speaker 1: in football yesterday for sure.
27:20
Speaker 2: Three and all.
27:20
Speaker 1: We almost hit on all the underdog money lines yesterday
27:23
Speaker 1: to two of the three hit almost all three, which
27:26
Speaker 1: is crazy. By the way, you're not going to see
27:28
Speaker 1: a worse beat than that Rams won. That was almost
27:30
Speaker 1: a play for me.
27:31
Speaker 2: The Rams.
27:31
Speaker 1: They were winning the game twenty six to seven in
27:34
Speaker 1: the second half, they blew the whole thing, but then
27:38
Speaker 1: they were still going to cover. There was still like
27:39
Speaker 1: no chance that they weren't going to cover that after
27:41
Speaker 1: winning the entire game.
27:42
Speaker 2: Outright.
27:42
Speaker 1: It was a wire to wire cover, I'm pretty sure
27:45
Speaker 1: until literally the last play of the game.
27:48
Speaker 2: After Philly took the lead towards the very.
27:51
Speaker 1: End of the game it was twenty it was I
27:54
Speaker 1: think twenty seven to twenty six. Philly Rams got in
27:57
Speaker 1: field goal range again, forty four yard field goal attempt.
28:00
Speaker 1: If you didn't see this, Rams are attempting a game
28:02
Speaker 1: winning field goal to retake the lead at the end.
28:05
Speaker 2: The only way that you lose.
28:07
Speaker 1: That cover is if it gets blocked and returned for
28:09
Speaker 1: a touchdown, and that is exactly what happened.
28:12
Speaker 2: You almost never see anything like that.
28:14
Speaker 1: It was one of the worst beats of all time,
28:15
Speaker 1: Like anybody who was on Philadelphia, they absolutely should have
28:19
Speaker 1: lost that bet, like they should have their money taken
28:21
Speaker 1: away from them. I'm sorry, but that should have been
28:23
Speaker 1: a Rams cover. It was ninety nine point whatever percent
28:27
Speaker 1: that the Rams are gonna cover, even including that final play,
28:31
Speaker 1: Like if they missed the field goal, they lose the game,
28:33
Speaker 1: but they still cover.
28:34
Speaker 2: Obviously.
28:36
Speaker 1: The only way they don't cover is if it gets
28:38
Speaker 1: blocked in return for its touchdown, and the odds on
28:40
Speaker 1: that are less than one percent. I mean, it's just
28:43
Speaker 1: so insane. I couldn't believe that. And after blowing a
28:47
Speaker 1: twenty six to seven lead, to which the Rams, yeah,
28:50
Speaker 1: they don't like put their foot on your throat and like,
28:53
Speaker 1: you know, put you away when they're winning, and Philadelphia
28:56
Speaker 1: is a good team. But still it's like, it's ridiculous. Man,
28:59
Speaker 1: that was ridiculous. And you know some of the other
29:02
Speaker 1: games in the later half which didn't go our way either,
29:05
Speaker 1: So my picks were like really killing it. It was
29:07
Speaker 1: looking like I was gonna have nine picks right up
29:10
Speaker 1: through the one PM slate and I'm like I'm killing
29:13
Speaker 1: it in like my overall pick him league, The Rams
29:15
Speaker 1: were in my pick five, by the way, so that
29:17
Speaker 1: pisses me off even more. I went three and two
29:19
Speaker 1: and I should have gone four and one, and I
29:21
Speaker 1: don't remember what my other.
29:22
Speaker 2: Loss even was, and they picked five.
29:25
Speaker 1: It was, Uh, I don't even remember what was the
29:27
Speaker 1: other game I hadn't I don't even remember what it was. Yeah,
29:31
Speaker 1: I forget, but yeah, then I wound up, yeah, not
29:33
Speaker 1: getting I only wound up getting Chicago right in my
29:36
Speaker 1: pick him and didn't get any of the later games
29:38
Speaker 1: right at all.
29:39
Speaker 2: Giants could have covered multiple times.
29:41
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, he's got to go, man, Like, it's unbelievable
29:44
Speaker 1: how bad Dallas's pass defense is. Like Caleb Williams looked
29:47
Speaker 1: competent against them, Russell Wilson looked like a god against him.
29:51
Speaker 1: And look at what Wilson has done otherwise.
29:52
Speaker 2: He's been so.
29:54
Speaker 1: Bad that it looks like he should just be put
29:56
Speaker 1: out to pasture. I mean, he is awful, and he's
29:59
Speaker 1: somehow up Dallas. It makes I mean, it's ridiculous.
30:03
Speaker 2: He's got to go. We need Jackson Dart right now. Man.
30:05
Speaker 2: I'm shocked. Kansas City.
30:07
Speaker 1: That was the first win ever at the Giants, So
30:10
Speaker 1: just a little bit of NFL ranting there, and then
30:13
Speaker 1: San Francisco didn't cover, which I wound up picking them
30:16
Speaker 1: on the minus one and a half. And I pick
30:18
Speaker 1: them groups just because of the way the money was going.
30:20
Speaker 1: And they only won by one, So.
30:22
Speaker 2: Isn't that just amazing?
30:25
Speaker 1: And I lost James Connor for the season on my
30:27
Speaker 1: fantasy team, so that's awesome too. I had a really
30:30
Speaker 1: nice running back tandem and he's already gone and somebody
30:34
Speaker 1: probably already owns his backup.
30:36
Speaker 2: Let's talk about Baltimore Detroit, though. This is the game here.
30:39
Speaker 1: I mean, this is not really gonna be a situation
30:41
Speaker 1: where it's like, oh, one of these teams is gonna
30:43
Speaker 1: be more motivated than the other.
30:44
Speaker 2: I don't really think so.
30:46
Speaker 1: People are hailing this is, you know, a potential Super
30:49
Speaker 1: Bowl preview. I think Baltimore will win the AFC. That
30:52
Speaker 1: was my prediction. Detroit, I don't think he's gonna win
30:54
Speaker 1: the NFC. Baltimore, they've looked good so far. They've scored
30:58
Speaker 1: forty points in both games. Again, the game last week
31:02
Speaker 1: was a little bit misleading though, because they did have
31:05
Speaker 1: I think a kick return touchdown in the game. I
31:07
Speaker 1: showed you Cleveland actually out cane Baltimore in the game,
31:10
Speaker 1: which is ridiculous, but Baltimore should have won against Buffalo.
31:13
Speaker 1: Baltimore was up forty to twenty five with four minutes
31:16
Speaker 1: left in that game. It's absurd that they lost that game.
31:19
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry very inopportune fumble. But anyway, whatever, Baltimore, they
31:25
Speaker 1: should show up for this game. I know it's facing
31:28
Speaker 1: an out of conference team, but it's a big game.
31:30
Speaker 2: For both teams.
31:30
Speaker 1: I know Baltimore does have Kansas City next that's a
31:33
Speaker 1: big game too, but this is a big game. It's
31:36
Speaker 1: Monday night. Everybody's gonna be watching it. Detroit, they looked.
31:39
Speaker 2: Good last week too.
31:40
Speaker 1: They put up fifty something points, so obviously the public
31:43
Speaker 1: is gonna want to play an over in this game
31:44
Speaker 1: seeing what these offenses are capable of. And these are
31:47
Speaker 1: two of the best offenses in the NFL, there's no
31:49
Speaker 1: doubt about that. After a lackluster game for Detroit in
31:53
Speaker 1: Game one, which Green Bay they might have a solid
31:55
Speaker 1: defense man, it's looking like they probably do. Everybody's saying, oh, well,
32:00
Speaker 1: Detroit can't do anything without Ben Johnson, Dan Campbell. I
32:05
Speaker 1: don't know what this kneecap speech is about I guess
32:07
Speaker 1: kneecap soup. I don't know what that was. I guess
32:10
Speaker 1: I have to go look into that. I guess that
32:12
Speaker 1: that might have been when he was playing.
32:13
Speaker 2: I guess for Detroit.
32:14
Speaker 1: I don't know what that was, but uh, I'll have
32:17
Speaker 1: to look into that later. But Detroit, and I mean,
32:18
Speaker 1: they bounced right back with a blowout win over Chicago.
32:22
Speaker 1: Their offense didn't have any problems in that game, so
32:25
Speaker 1: I guess without Ben Johnson, I guess they're still going
32:28
Speaker 1: because it was the thing. Oh, Jared Goff had not
32:30
Speaker 1: won a game yet. He was owing nineteen in games
32:33
Speaker 1: where he didn't have either Sean McVay or Ben Johnson,
32:36
Speaker 1: but he finally won one. So they're you know, they
32:38
Speaker 1: got their monkey, that monkey off their back. Their offense
32:41
Speaker 1: is fine. They should be able to put up offense
32:42
Speaker 1: in this game.
32:43
Speaker 2: They're going on on the road.
32:44
Speaker 1: I know it's a road out of conference game after
32:47
Speaker 1: a nice blowout divisional win, but still they're obviously gonna
32:50
Speaker 1: show up as well. Maybe Baltimore is a little bit
32:53
Speaker 1: of an edge just because Detroit isn't used to playing
32:55
Speaker 1: at Baltimore, so it's a little bit of an unfamiliar
32:57
Speaker 1: venue to them. But when we look at the market here,
33:00
Speaker 1: the market has been Lions all week, is where it
33:03
Speaker 1: looks like the money is actually coming. The Ravens opened
33:06
Speaker 1: six and a half and my initial instinct I talked
33:08
Speaker 1: about this in my NFL game in my NFL video,
33:11
Speaker 1: My initial instinct when you like you see two really
33:14
Speaker 1: good teams like this and a spread that looks high,
33:16
Speaker 1: my instinct is the public is gonna take the underdog
33:19
Speaker 1: because they think there's value on the underdog, and you
33:22
Speaker 1: want to look towards the favorite, then towards fading the public.
33:25
Speaker 1: But that's not what happened here.
33:27
Speaker 2: I was surprised. The public came in on the Ravens.
33:29
Speaker 1: It looks like and the line dropped on the Ravens
33:32
Speaker 1: for six and a half to four h sixty percent
33:35
Speaker 1: of tickets on the Ravens fifty percent of the cash.
33:38
Speaker 1: So it looks like the actual money's coming in on
33:41
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions side, which is crazy. I think the
33:45
Speaker 1: Ravens are the better team, which is what the oddsbeggers
33:48
Speaker 1: are telling you here. But the lines crashed so much
33:50
Speaker 1: it's like the Ravens are only getting a little bit
33:52
Speaker 1: more than home field advantage.
33:53
Speaker 2: Now public is weighing on the over too.
33:57
Speaker 1: I mean, of course they are, because they know how
33:59
Speaker 1: good these offen. The total got driven up for fifty
34:02
Speaker 1: and a half to fifty three, there might be a
34:04
Speaker 1: little bit of value on the under now, believe it
34:06
Speaker 1: or not, with the total up that high. Now eighty
34:09
Speaker 1: percent of tickets and cash on the over. I mean,
34:13
Speaker 1: as insane as it sounds, I mean, it's definitely a
34:15
Speaker 1: contrarian move to go under in this game. And I
34:18
Speaker 1: might consider that. And I think the the Dallas and
34:21
Speaker 1: Chicago game did go under yesterday right because Dallas didn't
34:24
Speaker 1: score enough to do it.
34:26
Speaker 2: Chicago was the team that led the scoring that game,
34:30
Speaker 2: had a high total, and that game went under. I
34:32
Speaker 2: know it's really difficult.
34:33
Speaker 1: I mean I wouldn't really want to be sitting on
34:34
Speaker 1: an underticket in this game myself. It's gonna get really dangerous,
34:37
Speaker 1: which is why the public really doesn't like to do that.
34:40
Speaker 2: Plus they like to root for points.
34:41
Speaker 1: But I could see this being a game where teams,
34:43
Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of like a heavyweight fight, and
34:45
Speaker 1: teams just kind of ease into it a little bit.
34:48
Speaker 2: So an under.
34:49
Speaker 1: To me, the under kind of makes sense. Maybe if
34:53
Speaker 1: you go under, like in the first quarter, first half,
34:56
Speaker 1: that might make more sense because there might be like
34:57
Speaker 1: a little bit of feeling out process and more of
35:00
Speaker 1: the points might wind up getting scored later in the game.
35:04
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean it's a quatrarian play, fading the
35:06
Speaker 1: public to take an under in this game. But I
35:09
Speaker 1: think both defenses are a little bit worrisome. I mean,
35:12
Speaker 1: these teams are both better offensively than defensively at this point,
35:15
Speaker 1: which seems a little bit weird to say that about
35:17
Speaker 1: the Ravens given what they were twenty years ago or
35:20
Speaker 1: whatever they were, or even up until very recently.
35:22
Speaker 2: They were always like a really.
35:23
Speaker 1: Really bad, like badass defense, just physical defense.
35:27
Speaker 2: Maybe they're not quite as much now.
35:29
Speaker 1: They need to get that mentality back though, because that,
35:31
Speaker 1: going along with how good their offenses is crazy. But
35:35
Speaker 1: I would lean to the Lions just because that is
35:37
Speaker 1: the way the market is going right now, so I
35:39
Speaker 1: don't really want to disagree with them when I don't
35:41
Speaker 1: really have any other I don't really have an angle
35:44
Speaker 1: like for this game otherwise, so I kind of default
35:47
Speaker 1: to the market read otherwise, So I would probably go
35:50
Speaker 1: Lions and under. As ridiculous as that sounds, that's the
35:53
Speaker 1: way that I look at it. And the underdog might
35:55
Speaker 1: be correlated to the Unders because if it's gonna be
35:58
Speaker 1: a little bit of a lower scoring game, the point
36:00
Speaker 1: it's worth a little bit more. So that's how I
36:03
Speaker 1: think about that game. Zach, what's up man? Thanks for
36:05
Speaker 1: hanging out. I know I started a little bit early.
36:08
Speaker 1: It's a quick video today. Not a whole lot going
36:10
Speaker 1: on today. That's gonna do it though, Man, no actual
36:12
Speaker 1: plays today. That was the breakdown though. You get the
36:15
Speaker 1: graphic for at least the breakdown.
36:17
Speaker 2: How about that. That's gonna do it. Thanks everybody for
36:20
Speaker 2: hanging out. From Nate Tower getting NBC JC Zach, thanks
36:24
Speaker 2: for hanging out.
36:25
Speaker 1: Learn it Toad on Twitter, Learn to Toad on Instagram,
36:29
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36:31
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36:34
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36:38
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36:40
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36:44
Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for now. No best bets today
36:46
Speaker 1: when we only have three baseball games in one NFL
36:49
Speaker 1: game today, so I will be back tomorrow. It'll be
36:52
Speaker 1: a longer video, a lot more stuff to do. Have
36:55
Speaker 1: a good start to the week, guys.
36:57
Speaker 2: Peace for now.