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The Favorites - AFC Draft Recap · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is
0:18
Speaker 1: our second day in a row, the rare two first
0:23
Speaker 1: doubleheader talking about the NFL Draft.
0:25
Speaker 2: Today, I'm joined as always buy my co.
0:27
Speaker 1: Host, my companion, Mike and Padre might BFF professional better
0:30
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter.
0:31
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, just.
0:33
Speaker 3: Talking football and mate Chad nothing better? Brother?
0:35
Speaker 2: How good is that?
0:36
Speaker 1: That's how much we love it and how much we
0:39
Speaker 1: miss it. We're doing two back to back shows about
0:43
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft.
0:45
Speaker 2: We don't even do.
0:46
Speaker 1: Back to back shows about the Super Bowl, but we're
0:48
Speaker 1: going back to back on the draft. Yesterday we did
0:50
Speaker 1: the NFC. Today we are doing the AFC. And here's
0:55
Speaker 1: what's interesting to me. It's more of an indication of
0:58
Speaker 1: what the public market everybody thinks about the differences between
1:03
Speaker 1: the AFC and the NFC.
1:05
Speaker 2: In the NFC.
1:09
Speaker 1: There was one team that was minus money to win
1:14
Speaker 1: their division. That was the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
1:19
Speaker 1: In the AFC, there are three teams that are minus
1:23
Speaker 1: money to win their division, including the Super Bowl runner
1:29
Speaker 1: up Kansas City Chiefs, including the Baltimore Ravens and the
1:36
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills, who have the longest odds of any team
1:41
Speaker 1: or the shortest odds of any team. I'm sorry, it's
1:45
Speaker 1: really like, yeah, the shortest dots. They have the largest
1:50
Speaker 1: discrepancy of any team to win their division at minus
1:55
Speaker 1: two seventy five. So we're going to get into the
1:58
Speaker 1: AFC breakdown today. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is
2:04
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five and New Bet three
2:07
Speaker 1: sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in
2:10
Speaker 1: bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using
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Speaker 1: promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in place to bet
2:16
Speaker 1: for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars
2:18
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
2:21
Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
2:24
Speaker 1: At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
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Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
2:43
Speaker 1: restrictions apply, all right, So we dug deep on a
2:47
Speaker 1: lot of the storylines yesterday. Today, we're going to go
2:51
Speaker 1: right to the teams, and I do want to start
2:53
Speaker 1: Simon with the Buffalo Bills minus two to seventy five
2:57
Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five to win their division.
3:01
Speaker 2: Before we came on, you know, there.
3:03
Speaker 1: Were radio hosts in Buffalo who were giving Brandon being
3:08
Speaker 1: the Bills GM a hard time because they didn't go
3:10
Speaker 1: after a receiver. And he basically threw up his hands
3:13
Speaker 1: and was like, what.
3:14
Speaker 2: Do you guys want me to do?
3:16
Speaker 1: We averaged thirty points a game last year, Like, I
3:21
Speaker 1: think I know what I'm doing when it comes to
3:23
Speaker 1: building the offense.
3:25
Speaker 4: I was just listening to the last few minutes of
3:27
Speaker 4: your show before I came home, waiting on here. Sound
3:30
Speaker 4: was like twenty eighteen all.
3:31
Speaker 3: Over with you guys. Well we're very how so well.
3:34
Speaker 4: You guys were bitching in twenty eighteen about Josh Allen.
3:37
Speaker 4: You guys wanted Josh Rosen, and now you guys are
3:39
Speaker 4: bitching that we don't have a receiver I don't get it.
3:42
Speaker 4: We just scored thirty points in a row for eight
3:45
Speaker 4: straight games a year ago. I get you guys asking
3:48
Speaker 4: why we didn't have receivers, but I don't understand it now.
3:52
Speaker 4: You just saw us lead the league in points. When
3:55
Speaker 4: you add all the postseason, no one scored more points.
3:58
Speaker 1: I love that he was basically came came out and said,
4:01
Speaker 1: fuck you guys, like you don't know what the hell
4:03
Speaker 1: you're talking about. They drafted the cornerback Maxwell Harriston in
4:08
Speaker 1: the first round from Kentucky, who, to me, was my
4:10
Speaker 1: favorite player in the draft because he was the guy
4:14
Speaker 1: who was the last person that dapped up every single
4:18
Speaker 1: player who got drafted ahead of him in the green room,
4:21
Speaker 1: and then he finally got drafted at the end of
4:22
Speaker 1: the first round. So I was just happy for him
4:25
Speaker 1: because he seemed like a sweetheart of a guy.
4:27
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll piggyback off that. Good for Brandon bing to
4:29
Speaker 5: b flexing his muscle. He's a guy that you know,
4:32
Speaker 5: last year we thought there would be a borderline playoff team,
4:36
Speaker 5: and you know, I talked a ton about, you know.
4:40
Speaker 3: The fact that they had so much dead cap.
4:42
Speaker 5: I couldn't believe that much dead cap they had and
4:44
Speaker 5: how hard that is to overcome, or you're trying to
4:46
Speaker 5: build out a team like you're going against teams that
4:48
Speaker 5: don't have seventy million dollars in dead cap. And I
4:51
Speaker 5: said the following year, they'll use that money and attack
4:54
Speaker 5: the defense. They did it in a different way, right, He's
4:57
Speaker 5: resigned a bunch of guys that they are kind of
4:59
Speaker 5: paying ahead time, just getting it lined up right for
5:02
Speaker 5: their defense.
5:02
Speaker 3: And then he went out and just drafted a don
5:04
Speaker 3: of defense.
5:04
Speaker 5: And I love that move because you know, their offense
5:07
Speaker 5: didn't fail them last year. They shouldn't have been giving
5:09
Speaker 5: up so many points to that Chiefs offense like that,
5:12
Speaker 5: to me was very alarming, and that was a reason
5:15
Speaker 5: for them to attack the defense in this offseason. And
5:18
Speaker 5: you know the fact that they've paid starters they trust
5:20
Speaker 5: for the future, and they've gone out defensively in this
5:23
Speaker 5: draft and really attacked it.
5:25
Speaker 3: I love it.
5:25
Speaker 5: So, you know, minus two to seventy five, Chad, we
5:29
Speaker 5: don't bet those type of numbers around here. So if
5:31
Speaker 5: you want to do what I love doing, like you know,
5:33
Speaker 5: the Chiefs are a big number. You partlay these divisional
5:36
Speaker 5: teams together and you kind of you know, if you
5:38
Speaker 5: want to choose the Bills to be an anchor, you
5:41
Speaker 5: can go for it. There's a team coming up we'll
5:44
Speaker 5: talk about that I think might give them a little
5:45
Speaker 5: bit of a run for their money here in this
5:47
Speaker 5: division this upcoming season. So yeah, two seventy five. I
5:50
Speaker 5: think it's warranted, but I wouldn't touch that straight up.
5:54
Speaker 1: I wonder if you and I are thinking about the
5:55
Speaker 1: same team, it is not the team that has the
5:59
Speaker 1: second shortest odds to win the division, in the Miami Dolphins,
6:03
Speaker 1: who are.
6:04
Speaker 2: Plus five point fifty at bet three six five.
6:07
Speaker 1: Their first pick was Kenneth Grant, the defensive tackle from Michigan.
6:12
Speaker 1: The one of their last picks, I think it might
6:14
Speaker 1: have been. Their last pick was no.
6:16
Speaker 2: Their second or.
6:17
Speaker 1: Last pick was Quinn Ewers, the quarterback from Texas in
6:20
Speaker 1: the seventh round.
6:21
Speaker 2: But kind of unspectacular as a draft.
6:24
Speaker 1: It didn't feel like they did a ton of things
6:27
Speaker 1: that were going to take them from that that team
6:30
Speaker 1: that was mediocre and really can do nothing without Tua
6:34
Speaker 1: to being a team that can challenge the Bills, or
6:37
Speaker 1: a team I think could be on their heels in
6:40
Speaker 1: the AFC East.
6:42
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think we all view the Dolphins windows closed,
6:46
Speaker 5: and it's tough to say. I know they don't want
6:48
Speaker 5: to hear it, but it felt like that when he
6:52
Speaker 5: you know, when Tua came on of the scene and
6:55
Speaker 5: they kind of had this offense built around him with
6:58
Speaker 5: Tyreek and Waddle and they were explosive. You know, two
7:01
Speaker 5: years ago that was the team, and every year it
7:04
Speaker 5: feels like they've gotten worse. Right, losing Fangs to the Eagles.
7:07
Speaker 5: As a coach, that was a big deal. Their defense
7:10
Speaker 5: just simply was not as good as it was the
7:11
Speaker 5: year before. And you know, this year, I like the
7:15
Speaker 5: moves in the draft. Of fact, they went and got
7:16
Speaker 5: adtackle their first pick from Michigan, right, and who knows
7:21
Speaker 5: if Grant's gonna.
7:21
Speaker 3: Be a stub.
7:22
Speaker 5: That's a good pick, that's a safe pick. Then you
7:24
Speaker 5: have pick thirty seven, you get a guard.
7:26
Speaker 3: Okay, that's fine. They didn't pick again until one forty three.
7:29
Speaker 5: So this is like another team that like they just
7:31
Speaker 5: didn't really have the picks because they've traded so much
7:34
Speaker 5: in previous years and now we're kind of seeing it.
7:37
Speaker 5: The fact that they've paid their quarterback one crazy money,
7:41
Speaker 5: the two wide receivers crazy money, there's nothing left throughout
7:45
Speaker 5: the team. They should just have thin team across the board.
7:47
Speaker 5: So yeah, I think we're on the same page. Plus
7:49
Speaker 5: five fifty. I wouldn't bet this. This should be closer
7:52
Speaker 5: to plus six hundred plus six fifty than it is.
7:55
Speaker 5: So to me, Miami, you're I'm with Chad. I think
7:57
Speaker 5: they're the third fourth team in this division will.
8:00
Speaker 1: In that plus six point fifty range, the New England Patriots,
8:08
Speaker 1: And that is interesting to me. You and I love Rabel.
8:13
Speaker 1: He has historically being a coach that we always want
8:16
Speaker 1: to bet on, really performs well as an underdog. He
8:21
Speaker 1: is Belichickian in his understanding of the rules and how
8:25
Speaker 1: to take advantage of them and how to squeeze every
8:28
Speaker 1: single opportunity out of the most strategic moments of a game.
8:34
Speaker 1: And then they go out and do the smart thing.
8:36
Speaker 1: They draft Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from LSU, with
8:40
Speaker 1: the fourth overall pick, and then they get a guy
8:43
Speaker 1: that a lot of people love, Traveon Henderson, in the
8:46
Speaker 1: second round.
8:47
Speaker 2: They're running back from.
8:48
Speaker 1: Ohio State, so and all of a sudden, they're starting
8:50
Speaker 1: to build a little bit and support Drake May who
8:53
Speaker 1: was just a baller last year. So you bring in
8:57
Speaker 1: a guy with an attitude like Vrabel, who brings structure
9:00
Speaker 1: to the organization, and then start building infrastructure around Drake May,
9:06
Speaker 1: and this team just gets much better. To me, I
9:08
Speaker 1: think they're better just by virtue of who's in the building.
9:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll just start at the top of saying that.
9:14
Speaker 5: As a fan, I think Patriots fans should know that
9:17
Speaker 5: all fan bases of football want them to have twenty
9:21
Speaker 5: thirty forty years of just hell. I want you guys
9:24
Speaker 5: to be terrible. I hope every quarterback you draft is horrible.
9:27
Speaker 5: I just want nothing but bad things for the Patriots.
9:29
Speaker 5: That being said, I love to hire and Rabel. We
9:33
Speaker 5: both agree. We think Drake May has a ton of upside,
9:35
Speaker 5: a ton of talent. The reason we're betting on them
9:38
Speaker 5: to win this division is because of the year two jump.
9:41
Speaker 5: That's something we see time and time again where a
9:43
Speaker 5: guy comes in year one and it's on an awful
9:46
Speaker 5: team and it looks awful and they're a bad team.
9:49
Speaker 5: We've seen it. If they can get the right type
9:51
Speaker 5: of talent in the door, the right coaching staff in
9:54
Speaker 5: the door, and they can build it out, there is
9:57
Speaker 5: a year two jump and a possibility of Thatmber plus
10:00
Speaker 5: six fifty plus seven hundred. A lot of books have
10:03
Speaker 5: the Patriots division will take that number. But like we
10:06
Speaker 5: said the top, there's a reason that Bills are minus
10:08
Speaker 5: two seventy five, like they are so far ahead of
10:11
Speaker 5: this Patriots team. We would need a major, major drump
10:15
Speaker 5: from Drake May and we need a defense to go
10:18
Speaker 5: to an another level. Like Chad just said, they basically
10:21
Speaker 5: went offensive tackle, running back, wide receiver, center. Those are
10:26
Speaker 5: their first fourth picks, so they've kind of said, Okay,
10:29
Speaker 5: we'll address the defense down the road, either in free
10:32
Speaker 5: agency or in next year's draft. This year, we're going
10:35
Speaker 5: to put an emphasis on trying to put Drake Ma
10:37
Speaker 5: in a better position than he was in the previous season.
10:39
Speaker 3: So I do really like that.
10:41
Speaker 5: If you're a Pageots fan, you have to be happy
10:42
Speaker 5: with this draft, even if you don't love Will Campbell
10:45
Speaker 5: at that spot, right, why wouldn't you trade back to
10:48
Speaker 5: pick ten with the Bears or whoever it was offering
10:50
Speaker 5: you a pick at that spot to take someone else
10:53
Speaker 5: another offensive lineman. You know you probably would have the
10:56
Speaker 5: same value there, just because oh there's offensive line at
10:59
Speaker 5: the top.
10:59
Speaker 3: Of this draft.
10:59
Speaker 5: For of all the same, right, They're all really good,
11:02
Speaker 5: high level offensive linemen with a little bit of weaknesses
11:04
Speaker 5: here and there that can make them never be an
11:06
Speaker 5: all pro. And that was kind of the whole deal
11:08
Speaker 5: heading to this draft. So I get why people are
11:10
Speaker 5: like they reach a little bit on Campbell. That could
11:13
Speaker 5: be true, but I think at the end of the day, it.
11:15
Speaker 3: Was Verbel's guy.
11:16
Speaker 5: No one was offered them good enough pick to get
11:17
Speaker 5: up to pick four, and you know, to me, they
11:20
Speaker 5: nailed this draft. So yeah, I think we're on the
11:22
Speaker 5: same page. I had that the best value to me
11:24
Speaker 5: right now for this division, it's got to be this
11:26
Speaker 5: Patriots team.
11:27
Speaker 1: What a difference in year makes simon that when the
11:31
Speaker 1: Jets had Aaron Rodgers, we were all in and then
11:36
Speaker 1: being the challenger brand to the Buffalo to the Buffalo Bills.
11:41
Speaker 1: The Jets are now fourteen to one to win the division.
11:48
Speaker 2: No faith in justin fields.
11:50
Speaker 1: The operators are saying the public has they draft an
11:55
Speaker 1: offensive tackle. Might have reached for a guy at the
12:00
Speaker 1: seventh overall pick in the first round. They probably needed
12:03
Speaker 1: some weapons, specifically a tight end. People thought they might
12:06
Speaker 1: take Tyler Warren with that pick. Instead, they got a
12:10
Speaker 1: tight end in the second round. Not a ton of
12:13
Speaker 1: sort of enthusiasm or hope coming out of this draft.
12:18
Speaker 5: No, And you know, part of me wants to throw
12:21
Speaker 5: a little penny on this fourteen to one because it
12:24
Speaker 5: is such an insane number and anything could happen, right,
12:27
Speaker 5: Josh Allen could go down two, It could go down
12:29
Speaker 5: like there could be a bunch of different injuries this division.
12:32
Speaker 5: Drake may could fan out and all of a sudden
12:34
Speaker 5: the Jets aol see this division eight to nine and
12:36
Speaker 5: eight and you had great value on betting the butt
12:38
Speaker 5: fourteen to one. The hardest port for me eachaz is
12:41
Speaker 5: Justin Fields and we talk all the time in football
12:45
Speaker 5: the quarterback position. Yes, people can make up a million
12:48
Speaker 5: reasons why he never won in his career that the
12:51
Speaker 5: Bears felt of YadA, YadA, YadA, But you see a
12:54
Speaker 5: time and time again, some of these guys just can't
12:56
Speaker 5: turn it around without the perfect scenario. And this doesn't
12:59
Speaker 5: feel like a perfect scenario for him. Justin Field's walking
13:02
Speaker 5: to this Jets team, it still feels like a dysfunctional
13:05
Speaker 5: organization that starts the top with their ownership and it
13:08
Speaker 5: works all the way down.
13:09
Speaker 3: So yeah, first year head coach.
13:11
Speaker 5: And you know, Aaron Glenn's already in the news because
13:16
Speaker 5: he's getting shipped from how he dealt with Aaron Rodgers
13:19
Speaker 5: and all this other stuff. So this is just not
13:22
Speaker 5: a Jets team I want to invest in. I think
13:23
Speaker 5: you're on the same page, like it's it's a team
13:26
Speaker 5: I assume is trying to get a top five, top
13:31
Speaker 5: ten pick next year in the draft. Like that's how
13:34
Speaker 5: they're kind of building this team out. So the books
13:36
Speaker 5: very telling having them at fourteen.
13:38
Speaker 3: To one right now in this division.
13:40
Speaker 5: So yeah, it's it's great drafts, Like we'll get to
13:42
Speaker 5: the draft real quick. You know, the fact that you
13:44
Speaker 5: guys went tackle, tight end, cornerback, wide receiver, like they're
13:47
Speaker 5: taking positions that they just they're going best available.
13:50
Speaker 3: They weren't really filling in needs.
13:52
Speaker 5: They didn't feel like they didn't drafted to draft a guy, right,
13:54
Speaker 5: they were taking the best guys they had on their board,
13:57
Speaker 5: which I like.
13:57
Speaker 3: For the Jets' future for this season. Does nothing for.
14:00
Speaker 1: Me, by the way, you just said, you guys, what
14:04
Speaker 1: do I have to do with the Jets.
14:06
Speaker 2: I don't I don't even think about the Jets.
14:10
Speaker 3: Maybe you guys talking to media, I don't know.
14:12
Speaker 1: Oh oh, so now I'm just media. Now I'm just
14:15
Speaker 1: that's how you see me. I'm just a media guy.
14:18
Speaker 5: It was more, it was more in general. It wasn't
14:20
Speaker 5: directed that you. Usually when I go more to you,
14:21
Speaker 5: I go Chad.
14:22
Speaker 3: I like the ur Chad, you, thank you.
14:26
Speaker 2: I appreciate that. I don't want to be lumped in
14:28
Speaker 2: with you.
14:28
Speaker 1: Just how you generalize, you know, the media people, media
14:34
Speaker 1: under attack every day as an institution. The Baltimore Ravens
14:40
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five to win the AFC North. Look,
14:44
Speaker 1: I know what we're going to say here. Last year,
14:46
Speaker 1: we love the Bengals, and I'm not sure I have
14:50
Speaker 1: that kind of enthusiasm for the Bengals this year. I
14:52
Speaker 1: was pretty unimpressed with their draft, and we'll get to
14:54
Speaker 1: that part.
14:55
Speaker 2: But the Ravens. The Ravens did the Ravens.
14:59
Speaker 1: Like at the end of the first round, they get
15:02
Speaker 1: Malachi Starks from Georgia, so they had released Marcus Williams
15:06
Speaker 1: like he's going to come in perfectly aligned with Kyle Hamilton.
15:11
Speaker 1: That defense got better and better as the second half
15:14
Speaker 1: of the season went on, Like I love what they do.
15:17
Speaker 1: They had a controversial pick with Mike Green, the kid
15:20
Speaker 1: from Marshall who had played at Virginia, has had sexual
15:23
Speaker 1: assault allegations in the past. That's partially why he was
15:25
Speaker 1: at Marshall and partially why he's dropped. But it's supposed
15:28
Speaker 1: to be a great talent like visit team that just
15:32
Speaker 1: they know what they're doing. They also drafted a kicker,
15:34
Speaker 1: by the way, in case Justin Tucker is no longer available.
15:39
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say that was probably the craziest part
15:42
Speaker 5: of their draft in my opinion, then taking that kicker
15:45
Speaker 5: because allegedly, you know, Justin Tucker might be on his
15:48
Speaker 5: way out of the league. So that's the type of
15:50
Speaker 5: move that it's like, Okay, they're kind of being ahead
15:53
Speaker 5: of it, right. I think they're kind of letting us
15:54
Speaker 5: know what they're probably going to do here, because that's
15:56
Speaker 5: a big deal for a team like this to take
15:58
Speaker 5: a guy, and especially you.
15:59
Speaker 3: Know, another team that we have to say.
16:03
Speaker 5: They're a top five front office or at least top
16:06
Speaker 5: five front office the last twenty five years, like they
16:09
Speaker 5: just always make the right decisions, and even they've had
16:11
Speaker 5: guys step down and new people step up into these
16:14
Speaker 5: front office positions, they've carried on the legacy of a
16:17
Speaker 5: draft a great drafting team in Baltimore. So yeah, Mike Green,
16:21
Speaker 5: major questions, No doubt about the talent, It's all about
16:24
Speaker 5: the person you know, to them that that risk was
16:27
Speaker 5: worth it at that position. You know, I'm with you
16:31
Speaker 5: with Chatted the fact that you know the them being
16:34
Speaker 5: minus one thirty five, they should be like, I have
16:37
Speaker 5: them great up to minus one fifty in this division,
16:39
Speaker 5: So I have there is value right now on this
16:42
Speaker 5: number if you want to take it.
16:43
Speaker 3: I've thrown a little bit on them at this number,
16:45
Speaker 3: and we'll talk about the other team this division. I
16:47
Speaker 3: think as a chance.
16:47
Speaker 5: But you know, the Ravens just feel like they're so
16:51
Speaker 5: far ahead of everyone else in this division because they
16:54
Speaker 5: just draft so well every year.
16:57
Speaker 3: And you're going through.
16:58
Speaker 5: Their major weaknesses of this team, like we say every year,
17:02
Speaker 5: there really isn't one. Like you could say the major
17:04
Speaker 5: questions might be defensively that is fair, but offensively we
17:09
Speaker 5: think it'll be even better this year. Lamar gets more
17:11
Speaker 5: comfortable in this offense. Derrick Henry obviously year two in
17:14
Speaker 5: this team should be more comfortable. It's just they're just
17:17
Speaker 5: so good, Like you said, they just dropped so well
17:19
Speaker 5: so yeah, really impressive.
17:21
Speaker 1: How much more comfortable can they get? Lamar Jackson should
17:24
Speaker 1: have been the MVP and Derreck Henry could have run
17:27
Speaker 1: for two thousand yards as a thirty one year old
17:29
Speaker 1: like that is peak comfort to me.
17:34
Speaker 5: It was, but it was also felt like there were
17:36
Speaker 5: a couple of things missing, and it was the first
17:39
Speaker 5: year where they really opened up the offense to Lamar
17:42
Speaker 5: having more say and passing the ball downfield in my opinion,
17:45
Speaker 5: So it's just ton me to see what he does
17:46
Speaker 5: this upcoming season where you're right, you know, you probably
17:49
Speaker 5: could have won MVP last year, probably should have Kenny
17:52
Speaker 5: Redo that in another season, I think he can. It's
17:55
Speaker 5: just didn't feel like they lost anything from last season.
17:58
Speaker 5: They've only gained him gotten better since last year.
18:00
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals plus two twenty. I had a long rant
18:04
Speaker 1: on the show last week about Shamar Stewart, the defensive
18:10
Speaker 1: end from Texas A and M and look, I don't
18:14
Speaker 1: know anything, but I know that you got a lot
18:17
Speaker 1: of film on a guy who has not produced despite
18:20
Speaker 1: having all world athletic capability according to the numbers that
18:25
Speaker 1: he showed at the Combine. And the team that bites
18:29
Speaker 1: is the Cincinnati Bengals because they don't know if Trey
18:32
Speaker 1: Hendricks is going to be there next year or not.
18:34
Speaker 1: They've gone all in on the offense. He wants his bag,
18:38
Speaker 1: he might not get it. So the answer is going
18:41
Speaker 1: to be a guy who combined well and had four
18:44
Speaker 1: and a half total saxon college.
18:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hate everything. This Spangles team is just done.
18:51
Speaker 5: I feel like every year they do stupid things and
18:54
Speaker 5: you know the t Higgins jamar chase them waiting till
18:57
Speaker 5: the last hour to sign those guys where they have
19:00
Speaker 5: all this time to work out these deals end up
19:01
Speaker 5: just paying them both just a ton of money and
19:04
Speaker 5: just above market just because they had to, because they
19:07
Speaker 5: just couldn't lose those two. And you know, our guy
19:11
Speaker 5: Nick Giffin last year is all over the Spangals team
19:13
Speaker 5: being the worst defenses in all of football.
19:15
Speaker 3: Nothing's changed.
19:16
Speaker 5: They have not addressed a single thing the fre agency.
19:19
Speaker 5: This draft to me, like I'm going through all these guys.
19:22
Speaker 5: You know, I'm glad they went you know, Edge and
19:25
Speaker 5: d Lineman their first two picks, but neither guy really
19:27
Speaker 5: moves the needle for me. And I would be shocked
19:30
Speaker 5: if Storret's a Day one starter. Like the kids just
19:32
Speaker 5: so raw as Chad's saying, so yeah, I'm off this
19:36
Speaker 5: team would not pay the price. Give me plus three
19:39
Speaker 5: fifty on the Bengals at plus two twenty, no value.
19:43
Speaker 1: Plus two twenty on the Bengals. I'm curious because you
19:47
Speaker 1: said there's a team that you like. Right now we're
19:49
Speaker 1: going to talk about the Steelers at plus five point fifty.
19:52
Speaker 1: I can't imagine it's the Steelers. Why not interesting? Explain yourself.
20:00
Speaker 5: This is just a perfect team of they have, you know,
20:04
Speaker 5: DK Metcalf, who I think is one of the better
20:06
Speaker 5: receivers on football. And they kept pickings like they kept
20:10
Speaker 5: their two bigger They have these two big receivers. The
20:13
Speaker 5: only negative is Aaron Rodgers. We don't know what his
20:16
Speaker 5: mentality is, what he's gonna do. Is he gonna come back? YadA,
20:18
Speaker 5: YadA YadA. If he comes back, Chad, it's it's gonna
20:22
Speaker 5: be night and day. Him going from the Jets dysfunctional
20:25
Speaker 5: organization to a Tomlin rand team in Pittsburgh. And to me,
20:30
Speaker 5: this feels like a hell Mary all In Last Hurrah
20:34
Speaker 5: type of season in Pittsburgh.
20:35
Speaker 3: Like you know, TJ.
20:37
Speaker 5: Watt is gonna be I think thirty one at the
20:40
Speaker 5: start of this season. He's basically on his way out,
20:43
Speaker 5: and he's kind of been quietly rumored to be really
20:46
Speaker 5: bitcherbhind the scenes about this team. But I think if
20:48
Speaker 5: they're bringing Rodgers with this team, I like it. Like
20:52
Speaker 5: I just like how it's built out that it's not
20:54
Speaker 5: gonna be all on him and he's gonna have such
20:56
Speaker 5: insane weapons that you know, we saw it last year.
21:00
Speaker 3: He took about I want to.
21:03
Speaker 5: Say, ten weeks to get that Achilles right in game
21:05
Speaker 5: and playing in the games right. It didn't feel like
21:08
Speaker 5: he was comfortable either moving the pocket or pushing off
21:10
Speaker 5: that back Achilles until week ten or eleven, and you
21:13
Speaker 5: did see the Jets get better.
21:15
Speaker 3: Once he did get comfortable as the season went along.
21:17
Speaker 3: So that's my view of a chat.
21:18
Speaker 5: I just I'm betting on Tomlin at an insane number,
21:22
Speaker 5: Like I have them priced as the second best team
21:24
Speaker 5: this division. They have him way down there. Plus five hundred,
21:27
Speaker 5: a big drop down for this Pittsburgh team. So I
21:30
Speaker 5: think if Rogers comes back, this immediately jumps to what
21:33
Speaker 5: plus four hundred plus three fifty, So.
21:35
Speaker 3: I'm just trying to get ahead of it. I like
21:37
Speaker 3: the number. I'm gonna back Pittsburgh here.
21:39
Speaker 1: I had to put on my glasses to make sure
21:41
Speaker 1: I was reading the number right. For the Cleveland Browns
21:45
Speaker 1: thirty to one. Yeah, to win the division thirty to one.
21:52
Speaker 1: You're almost obligated to take a piece of that number
21:55
Speaker 1: because it's so outrageous. What if Shador Sanders is as
22:00
Speaker 1: as good as mel kiper thinks he is, and what
22:02
Speaker 1: if he should have been the number one overall quarterback?
22:05
Speaker 1: And one if he comes in and he takes Kevin
22:08
Speaker 1: Stefanski's offense, which we know can be really effective, and
22:11
Speaker 1: we know he's a good coach.
22:12
Speaker 2: We've seen him do it with Baker, We've seen him
22:14
Speaker 2: do it with Joe Flacco.
22:15
Speaker 1: Like if he's got a accurate, careful quarterback who can
22:21
Speaker 1: make the plays that he asked them to make. What
22:24
Speaker 1: if Shador Sanders is those things? Don't we have to
22:28
Speaker 1: take the Browns at thirty to one just for a
22:30
Speaker 1: little taste.
22:31
Speaker 3: I mean, I'll throw a hundred on it, and it's fun.
22:33
Speaker 5: It'd be fun to make this bet and have a
22:36
Speaker 5: three K come back off one hundred dollars bet.
22:38
Speaker 3: That'd be insane.
22:39
Speaker 5: But you know, to me, I loved how they started
22:43
Speaker 5: this draft, Like I thought they were going to make
22:45
Speaker 5: the stupid mistake of taking Travis Hunter with that second pick,
22:49
Speaker 5: and thank god they didn't. They traded down, took this smart,
22:53
Speaker 5: safe pick, Mason Graham, brilliant pair him, you know up front,
22:59
Speaker 5: Like that's that's their biggest strengths, their defense, And I
23:01
Speaker 5: love that they went Dtackle linebacker, Like to start the draft,
23:05
Speaker 5: They're like, we're gonna keep adding to this strength to
23:06
Speaker 5: this defense. And I think what you said was kind
23:08
Speaker 5: of sneaky of the Joe Flacco thing, you know, I
23:13
Speaker 5: you don't remember. But another bet I gave out at
23:15
Speaker 5: our live show was the over four and a half
23:18
Speaker 5: for this Browns team to win their win total, and it.
23:22
Speaker 3: Was just because they have the defense.
23:24
Speaker 5: The thing that was missing last year was just a
23:26
Speaker 5: stable player at that quarterback position. And in my mind,
23:31
Speaker 5: I thought, even if it was a guy they drafted
23:34
Speaker 5: or an Aaron Rodgers Joe Flacco type, it's gonna be
23:38
Speaker 5: so much better than it was last year.
23:40
Speaker 3: It was just so bad.
23:41
Speaker 5: Like Winston had one good game then just had four
23:44
Speaker 5: games in a row of just nothing, just train wreck
23:47
Speaker 5: in every game. They were kind of in it because
23:49
Speaker 5: their defense is so good. Like Chad said, Stefanski is
23:52
Speaker 5: such a good coach. So yeah, I just like this team.
23:56
Speaker 5: I like their win total. The only reason I'm not
23:58
Speaker 5: taking them to visional odds is I know they're gonna
24:01
Speaker 5: peter out come November, like they just won't last.
24:04
Speaker 3: With the Ravens or these or Pittsburgh.
24:06
Speaker 5: I just think eventually they're gonnaet figured out and kind
24:09
Speaker 5: of get caught up. But yeah, like you're saying thirty
24:13
Speaker 5: to one, how do you not throw a penny on that?
24:15
Speaker 5: That's that's crazy, long shot.
24:16
Speaker 2: They have to throw a penny, little little bit of
24:19
Speaker 2: a taste.
24:20
Speaker 1: The only team in the AFC who uh the only
24:23
Speaker 1: division in the AFC where the odds on favorite is
24:27
Speaker 1: plus money are the Houston Texans in the AFC South
24:31
Speaker 1: at plus one oh five. They had a lot of
24:35
Speaker 1: offensive line needs last year. They have receiver needs and
24:40
Speaker 1: to their credit, first pick wide receiver, second pick offensive tackle,
24:47
Speaker 1: third pick wide receiver.
24:49
Speaker 2: They took both.
24:50
Speaker 1: Receivers from Iowa State, so they are clearly going after
24:55
Speaker 1: the things that they felt they needed the most last year.
24:58
Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs injured, Nico Collins was injured, tanked Oll injured.
25:04
Speaker 1: They don't know when he'll be back. He had that
25:06
Speaker 1: gruesome knee injury. So they're trying to get themselves back
25:09
Speaker 1: in a position to get some weapons for CJ.
25:15
Speaker 2: Stroud plus one oh five to win the division. Signing.
25:19
Speaker 3: This division's really tough.
25:20
Speaker 5: It's one of the divisions where it's like, I'm kind
25:21
Speaker 5: of at this point throwing my hands up and I'm
25:24
Speaker 5: gonna need more guidance on what they do with this
25:26
Speaker 5: division because I just don't trust Houston like I did
25:29
Speaker 5: come into last season in the sense that last year
25:32
Speaker 5: I wanted to fade Houston, and then I remember I
25:34
Speaker 5: broke right before the season. I was just like, all right,
25:37
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with Houston. I just cannot trust the Jags,
25:39
Speaker 5: couldn't trust the Colts, and I sure as all didn't
25:42
Speaker 5: trust Tennessee. So I was okay taking Houston last year.
25:45
Speaker 5: This year, I see the upside of the Jaguars, I
25:48
Speaker 5: see the upside of the Colts. I even see the
25:50
Speaker 5: upside of Tennessee. I don't really see the upside of
25:53
Speaker 5: this Texans team, Like I feel like they're tapped out
25:57
Speaker 5: and they're in kind of a rebuild mode. Here, especially
26:00
Speaker 5: that offensive line, Like did I dream that they moved
26:02
Speaker 5: Larry and Tunsil, Like I envisioned them moving their best
26:06
Speaker 5: offensive player that's on their offensive line, their biggest weakness,
26:11
Speaker 5: to a different team because what they don't want to
26:12
Speaker 5: pay him, he's too old. Very bizarre move of them
26:15
Speaker 5: getting rid of him. So yeah, great that they got Higgins.
26:18
Speaker 5: You know, you think he's a solid receiver, you know,
26:21
Speaker 5: like you said it pick seventy nine, they wouldn't.
26:22
Speaker 3: Got another receiver.
26:24
Speaker 5: That's great, But at the same time, it's like, I
26:26
Speaker 5: don't know if that's the really the needle mover, like
26:29
Speaker 5: they they just they so much.
26:30
Speaker 3: Other They need to attack.
26:31
Speaker 5: They need to attack that defense and to me, that
26:33
Speaker 5: offensive line, they really did not answer those questions. I'm
26:36
Speaker 5: you know, you're getting the forty eighth pick, taking the
26:39
Speaker 5: OFFENSI attack from Minnesota could work out. He could be
26:41
Speaker 5: a hitter, but the odds are saying and most likely not,
26:44
Speaker 5: he's gonna be a two or three year kind of
26:47
Speaker 5: thing where they're gonna maybe have to start him because
26:49
Speaker 5: they have a choice, but he's not gonna be polishing anyway.
26:51
Speaker 5: So yeah, I just don't think there's any value there
26:54
Speaker 5: chet up plus one oh five, and I'm not shocked
26:57
Speaker 5: the books that made them a plus number. I thought
26:58
Speaker 5: this would be close for a plus one plus one
27:01
Speaker 5: twenty five. So yeah, I just I don't think there's
27:04
Speaker 5: any value on this Houston team.
27:05
Speaker 2: You were you didn't dream it.
27:07
Speaker 1: By the way, Larry Mntunstall, left tackle who a lot
27:09
Speaker 1: of people consider to be grading out as the best
27:11
Speaker 1: left tackle in football, was traded from Houston to the
27:15
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. So next up in that division the Jacksonville
27:23
Speaker 1: Jaguars plus three hundred. They made the biggest Day one move.
27:29
Speaker 1: They're young GM who came from the Rams. Traded up
27:34
Speaker 1: from number five to number two so he could get
27:37
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter.
27:38
Speaker 2: I don't know if you've.
27:39
Speaker 1: Watched this guy's press conferences in the first couple of
27:43
Speaker 1: days after the draft, both when he explained the trade
27:46
Speaker 1: for Travis Hunter and when Travis Hunter was introduced.
27:50
Speaker 2: But they're not They're not just platitudes, man.
27:56
Speaker 1: This guy is preaching about what this team is going
28:01
Speaker 1: to be and looking at it from sixty thousand feet
28:05
Speaker 1: as if.
28:06
Speaker 2: We are in the middle of church.
28:08
Speaker 1: Like the way he is talking about this, it feels
28:11
Speaker 1: so much bigger. To him, then we're just trying to
28:14
Speaker 1: build a good football team, which it should be. He's
28:16
Speaker 1: the youngest GM in football and he's getting a big
28:18
Speaker 1: chance and he's taking big swings. But I'm enjoying that
28:21
Speaker 1: more than I'm enjoying trying to figure out what this
28:23
Speaker 1: team is going to be with a quarterback that neither
28:25
Speaker 1: of us believe in.
28:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's a thirty four year old.
28:29
Speaker 5: That, you know, is basically why older generations fucking hate millennials.
28:34
Speaker 6: Like when he speaks, he's so confident, yeah, and why
28:39
Speaker 6: why It's it's bizarre where it's like, Okay, make a
28:43
Speaker 6: playoff run and then give that speech after the season.
28:46
Speaker 5: Okay, shock us first, Like, to me, it's all horrible
28:52
Speaker 5: trade for an overrated player, but great situation to me
28:56
Speaker 5: for Travis Hunter. Like he's got a team that is
28:58
Speaker 5: totally all and believes the bullshit he's selling that he's
29:02
Speaker 5: gonna play defense and offense. It's like, even though any
29:07
Speaker 5: guy who's ever played in the league and current players
29:09
Speaker 5: in the league are just like, he is going to
29:10
Speaker 5: die if he tries to play defense and offense. And
29:13
Speaker 5: I gave that that analogy to Chad, you know, the
29:15
Speaker 5: other week. If he got drafted by Cleveland, I can
29:18
Speaker 5: only imagine he gets laid out by Kyle Hamilton and
29:21
Speaker 5: then the next drive they have him thrown in there
29:22
Speaker 5: and he has to make a tackle on Derrick Henry Will.
29:25
Speaker 5: He was going to die if he went to the
29:27
Speaker 5: NFC North, So AFC North, so maybe he can get
29:30
Speaker 5: away with it. Right, he's in the AFC South now
29:32
Speaker 5: no one really cares.
29:34
Speaker 3: Maybe they can get away with it.
29:36
Speaker 5: But like this GM holy shit, talk about just thinking
29:41
Speaker 5: he's got all the answers to the test and he
29:43
Speaker 5: doesn't even know the fucking subject. Like this kid just
29:46
Speaker 5: seems like he is always going to set the Jags
29:48
Speaker 5: back another five or ten years. So I'm excited, Like
29:52
Speaker 5: it's gonna be fun watching, you know, the house burned down,
29:55
Speaker 5: or it could be this guy is a genius. Travis
29:58
Speaker 5: Hunter can play both sides of the ball. And it's
30:01
Speaker 5: like you nailed the pick then, because Brian Thomas Junior
30:04
Speaker 5: to me is a great pick from last year I picked.
30:06
Speaker 5: This kid did not make so they got to the
30:09
Speaker 5: one receiver. If Trevor Hunter could be the number two
30:11
Speaker 5: receiver and be an absolutely stud great, Like that's that's fantastic.
30:16
Speaker 5: But me, me and you talk all the time. The
30:18
Speaker 5: biggest issue we've had with the Jaguars is they can't
30:20
Speaker 5: block for Trevor Lawrence, and they didn't address that. Like
30:23
Speaker 5: they got an offensive guard from West Virginia at pick
30:27
Speaker 5: eighty nine. That ain't gonna that ain't gonna change much
30:30
Speaker 5: for that offensive line. So excited for them, high hopes
30:34
Speaker 5: for the Jaguars. But yeah, plus three hundred, no, thank you.
30:38
Speaker 5: I'm happy to wait and see how this crazy experiment
30:42
Speaker 5: goes with this kid.
30:43
Speaker 1: It's so funny you mentioned the play in both ways
30:46
Speaker 1: thing because I watched the draft coverage and I feel
30:51
Speaker 1: like I'm being punked. Like watching a lot of the
30:54
Speaker 1: analysts talk about Travis Hunter and how he's going to
30:58
Speaker 1: be able to do that and how it might be
31:00
Speaker 1: easier in the NFL because they play fewer plays, I'm like,
31:05
Speaker 1: what the fuck is happening here? Am I not watching
31:09
Speaker 1: the same league?
31:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fun. It's fun to make up in your
31:12
Speaker 3: own mind that this is gonna work and he's gonna be.
31:13
Speaker 1: But it's so dumb, and by the way, all of
31:16
Speaker 1: this comes down to Trevor Lawrence.
31:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, like that's it.
31:20
Speaker 1: That's the ballgame is Trevor Lawrence and his ability to
31:23
Speaker 1: be accurate and run the playbook and get the ball
31:27
Speaker 1: into his weapons hands. By the way, with a brand
31:30
Speaker 1: new coach, brand new coaching staff, like I am not
31:35
Speaker 1: sold on this situation at all. I think the Browns
31:39
Speaker 1: put themselves in a really good spot. I don't know
31:42
Speaker 1: that the Jaguars are going to be playoff quality next year,
31:45
Speaker 1: whereas like the next team we're talking about, the Indianapolis Colts,
31:51
Speaker 1: they get Tyler Warren, who knows who their quarterback is
31:54
Speaker 1: going to be, but either one of those guys, Daniel
31:57
Speaker 1: Jones or Anthony Richardson are going to be in a
31:59
Speaker 1: better position because they got a guy who a lot
32:02
Speaker 1: of people thought could have been a maybe the fifth
32:05
Speaker 1: to sixth best player in the draft. The Colts are
32:09
Speaker 1: plus three twenty five, so not that far off from
32:13
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. The market doesn't think there's much of a
32:15
Speaker 1: difference between these two teams, I know.
32:17
Speaker 5: And people are gonna be shocked. This is not the
32:19
Speaker 5: team I'm been in this division. So there's only one
32:21
Speaker 5: team left, so it kind of gives it away. But
32:23
Speaker 5: I liked the draft by the Colts. I Honestly, it's
32:26
Speaker 5: it's a good, solid, boring draft, right. They took the
32:29
Speaker 5: best available players I had on their board and.
32:31
Speaker 3: Didn't reach for people like Warren.
32:33
Speaker 5: To me, shout out to Anthony Dubundo, he predicted it,
32:36
Speaker 5: you know, three two, three weeks before the draft, that
32:38
Speaker 5: that's who they were gonna get, and I was shocked
32:41
Speaker 5: the Bears pass on them. But again, the more you
32:43
Speaker 5: dove into it, it makes sense, right, Like there's there are
32:46
Speaker 5: questions that Warren won't but get any separation. If this
32:49
Speaker 5: kid was a freaking college now he's in a different
32:52
Speaker 5: level and that you know, he's not gonna project out
32:54
Speaker 5: to keep getting better. So you know, fun interesting pick there.
32:58
Speaker 5: The hope is obviously Dallas Clark, Like that's the dream scenarios.
33:02
Speaker 5: They get the guy they've been looking for for forever.
33:05
Speaker 5: But yeah, the fact they went tight end and then
33:09
Speaker 5: went edge went d back, like we all like it.
33:12
Speaker 5: You know, this is a team that it all comes
33:14
Speaker 5: down to the quarterback position. So Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson,
33:17
Speaker 5: I don't feel like putting any money on them at
33:19
Speaker 5: this point of the year, but maybe that will change
33:21
Speaker 5: come August. But we're sitting right now, Chad, I don't
33:24
Speaker 5: have really confidence to put money on those either, quarterback.
33:26
Speaker 2: And you do want the Tennessee Titans at eight to one,
33:30
Speaker 2: let's go.
33:31
Speaker 3: You do. You don't love it, look at that face.
33:33
Speaker 1: So I'm just curious. I don't actually have a strong
33:36
Speaker 1: opinion on this one.
33:39
Speaker 5: So my view of it is this team that historically
33:42
Speaker 5: was the worst team we've ever seen from a gambling perspective.
33:45
Speaker 3: Last season like biggest, biggest blind spot, biggest miss by
33:50
Speaker 3: far of the season for me and you.
33:52
Speaker 5: Chad was not just fading them every week and every
33:55
Speaker 5: week I kept saying that to myself, and I just
33:56
Speaker 5: couldn't do it because it was like, but they're getting
33:58
Speaker 5: literally four or five points for free here and it
34:01
Speaker 5: didn't matter.
34:02
Speaker 3: That's how bad Will Levis was. So when you really go.
34:04
Speaker 5: Back through and break down this team, he was such
34:07
Speaker 5: a net negative for them. That their defense was actually
34:11
Speaker 5: pretty good, especially against explosive plays, like they're actually really
34:15
Speaker 5: good at stopping teams from explosive plays. They just got
34:18
Speaker 5: grinded out by a lot of teams, right, They just
34:20
Speaker 5: got worn down because tons of short fields, tons of
34:23
Speaker 5: three and outs from their offense, and they just got
34:25
Speaker 5: worn out defensively, offensively, there's a lot to work with here.
34:30
Speaker 5: Like their offensive line, you saw, you know, you made
34:33
Speaker 5: a big deal effect that the dad came over from Cleveland.
34:35
Speaker 2: What's his name, Bill Callahan?
34:37
Speaker 3: Bill Callahan.
34:39
Speaker 5: He came over and you immediately saw that he did
34:40
Speaker 5: make a difference to a terrible offensive line. Like by
34:43
Speaker 5: the end of the season, their blocking teams were actually
34:45
Speaker 5: pretty good.
34:46
Speaker 3: They weren't.
34:47
Speaker 5: You know, Will Levis was dying early on, but the
34:49
Speaker 5: season went along. A lot of it fell onto him
34:51
Speaker 5: just holding on the ball too long, him just being
34:53
Speaker 5: a bad quarterback. I just don't see the same happening here,
34:56
Speaker 5: Like this is a team that, you know.
34:59
Speaker 3: Say what you want.
35:00
Speaker 5: If cam Ward's a little bit overdrafted, you know, I
35:02
Speaker 5: think people kept saying he had been the fifth or
35:04
Speaker 5: sixth quarterback in the previous draft. I didn't think he
35:08
Speaker 5: was that bad. I had him right there, right behind
35:10
Speaker 5: Drake May. I view him as a guy that was
35:15
Speaker 5: underrated to come out of high school. I think he
35:17
Speaker 5: was like a one star as you were, star recruit zero.
35:20
Speaker 5: That's crazy, and he just worked for everything he's gotten
35:24
Speaker 5: and he just keeps getting better every stage of his life.
35:26
Speaker 5: So maybe he hits the wall. Maybe what we just
35:29
Speaker 5: saw him in Miami that is as good as it's
35:31
Speaker 5: ever gonna get, or you believe and project out that
35:34
Speaker 5: this kid is really smart football wise and he's gonna
35:37
Speaker 5: transition really well into the next level, just like we
35:39
Speaker 5: saw Jane Daniels do. Where these guys who are cool,
35:42
Speaker 5: comp collective in the pocket, confident in the pocket, those
35:45
Speaker 5: are the ones who can't transition the best into the NFL.
35:48
Speaker 3: So I know, I got crazy high opes here.
35:51
Speaker 5: I got a long rope. It's eight to one for
35:53
Speaker 5: them to win this division. So that's that's my view
35:55
Speaker 5: of it is. I think I got to take a
35:56
Speaker 5: position here and come November they're all the way down
35:59
Speaker 5: to you know, four to one or three to one,
36:02
Speaker 5: and then maybe if I like you STI at that point,
36:04
Speaker 5: I'll take a position on them. But I think you're
36:06
Speaker 5: just getting way too long of odds for this team
36:09
Speaker 5: that defensively is as bad as people think they're on offensively,
36:12
Speaker 5: just with the quarterback change, I think we're gonna see
36:13
Speaker 5: a major leap for this team. So get right for
36:16
Speaker 5: a chet, We're gonna bet in Tennessee a lot.
36:18
Speaker 2: Brother Tennessee and Carolina.
36:19
Speaker 1: That's going to be our Super Bowl pick. AFC West
36:23
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs minus one thirty. Like, I don't know
36:29
Speaker 1: that we'll ever not want to bet on the Chiefs
36:31
Speaker 1: as long as this division exists. With Patrick Mahomes and
36:37
Speaker 1: they did things that we thought they needed to do right.
36:40
Speaker 1: They drafted Josh Simmons, the offensive tackle from Ohio State.
36:44
Speaker 1: They drafted for speed at the edge. They drafted a
36:49
Speaker 1: wide receiver later on, a guy who a lot of
36:52
Speaker 1: people thought could have been a much higher pick. He
36:54
Speaker 1: came in the fourth round, Jalen Royals from Utah State,
36:57
Speaker 1: but he was injured and so people thought if he
37:00
Speaker 1: could replicate his twenty twenty three production, then he would
37:04
Speaker 1: have been drafted maybe second round. So they got guys
37:07
Speaker 1: that can probably play immediately that they need to contribute immediately.
37:13
Speaker 1: Plus they're going to have Hollywood Brown, Plus they're going
37:15
Speaker 1: to have Rashi Rice, Like they're going to be better
37:18
Speaker 1: by virtue of addition of players who had been injured
37:21
Speaker 1: not coming back.
37:23
Speaker 5: Yeah, and definitely Rice as the biggest one, like them
37:27
Speaker 5: losing him and the fact that they didn't really miss
37:29
Speaker 5: it beat and they still just make it all work.
37:30
Speaker 5: Just shows the level of greatness of Andrew reading this
37:33
Speaker 5: team where they can just keep adjusting like chameleon and
37:36
Speaker 5: changing their colors into whatever they need to be to
37:39
Speaker 5: make it work for that team. And you know, offensively,
37:43
Speaker 5: on paper, I look at this team as this might
37:45
Speaker 5: be the best team they've had offensively since.
37:47
Speaker 3: The Tyreek Kelsey years.
37:49
Speaker 5: Like they've been winning all these championships basically off makeshift
37:53
Speaker 5: offenses with a really good defense, and like Chad just said,
37:57
Speaker 5: you know, adjusting the offensive line right with the first pick. Great,
38:02
Speaker 5: that's what we all think they should do. Because they've
38:04
Speaker 5: done a total reshuffle this off season over that offensive line.
38:06
Speaker 5: They've let guys go, They've traded guys. I mean, they
38:09
Speaker 5: traded a guy to Chad's Bears. Like they're just they're
38:12
Speaker 5: moving pieces and then paying guys and trying to make
38:14
Speaker 5: it all.
38:14
Speaker 3: Work because it's tough, right.
38:16
Speaker 5: It's like they paid Mahomes all this money. Now they're
38:19
Speaker 5: trying to make it all work across the board, and
38:21
Speaker 5: it's like, you know, that's the magic of all these
38:23
Speaker 5: teams where like you know, the Eagles, they've had to
38:26
Speaker 5: let a ton of guys go because they can't affording
38:28
Speaker 5: when after the Super Bowls. That's what's so impressible with
38:29
Speaker 5: the Chiefs is they keep making these super Bowls and
38:32
Speaker 5: losing all these guys, and they keep going back, they
38:35
Speaker 5: keep making work and it's just when are they gonna
38:37
Speaker 5: get caught? Like it's that old uh you know, Aaron
38:41
Speaker 5: Paul screamed with this guy. They can't keep getting away
38:44
Speaker 5: from this. It's true. It's like, I can't believe the
38:47
Speaker 5: Chiefs just keep getting away from this and this this draft,
38:50
Speaker 5: I'm with you.
38:50
Speaker 3: I think they nailed it like that.
38:52
Speaker 5: In fact, they drafted offensive lineman then went two defensive
38:55
Speaker 5: linemen right after. I love that for them, Like, just
38:58
Speaker 5: keep reloading.
38:59
Speaker 3: In the trenches. They're just they're so smart and savvy.
39:02
Speaker 5: So yeah, this is a team that, you know, great
39:05
Speaker 5: value in my opinion, minus one thirty. This is a
39:07
Speaker 5: team that's won the division seven eight years in a row,
39:11
Speaker 5: something crazy like that. And it's because every year everyone
39:16
Speaker 5: thinks in their mind that this is the year that
39:18
Speaker 5: they take a step back, this is the year the
39:21
Speaker 5: Chargers take the next step, this is the year the
39:23
Speaker 5: Broncos finally step up. So it's a rare opportunity. Chib
39:27
Speaker 5: minus one thirty for the Chiefs. To me, I have
39:29
Speaker 5: a surprice that wont minus one seventy five. I really
39:32
Speaker 5: liked this early value here on this Chiefs number and
39:34
Speaker 5: minus one thirty.
39:37
Speaker 1: Sansas City Chiefs professionals. Los Angeles Chargers are trying to
39:42
Speaker 1: be professionals, and I think they're getting closer. They're at
39:45
Speaker 1: plus three hundred. They drafted mari and Hampton in the
39:48
Speaker 1: first round. I know that Evan loved Hampton and we
39:52
Speaker 1: had a lot of conversations about that last week when
39:55
Speaker 1: we had him in raybaon On. I think they had
39:57
Speaker 1: a totally good draft. Did they put themselves in a
40:00
Speaker 1: position to be better than the Chiefs? Probably not, But
40:03
Speaker 1: you can't get there unless you have Patrick Mahomes. The
40:06
Speaker 1: real question for them is just another year playing with Harbaugh,
40:09
Speaker 1: and he did a miraculous turnaround with them last year.
40:13
Speaker 1: His team's always get that much better in the second year.
40:16
Speaker 1: So if you're gonna bet on them, it's because you're
40:18
Speaker 1: betting on Harbaugh and sort of the value of his system.
40:22
Speaker 1: What's interesting to me is justin Herbert would get crushed
40:26
Speaker 1: from the center of his offensive line, the middle of
40:30
Speaker 1: that offensive line. Last year, they kind of didn't do
40:33
Speaker 1: much in the draft to improve that.
40:37
Speaker 5: Yeah, and like, honestly, I didn't think the Church would
40:40
Speaker 5: be that good last year. And what I relooked was
40:43
Speaker 5: this kid Minter, like this DC they brought in that
40:47
Speaker 5: totally changed the team. Like as much you want to
40:49
Speaker 5: give credit to Horrorball, it was the defense that carried
40:52
Speaker 5: them that entire season. Like they just basically ran it
40:55
Speaker 5: first a second down, then you know Herbert would make
40:57
Speaker 5: a nice plan third down. That was their offense, where
41:00
Speaker 5: defense they kept getting stops and even against good teams
41:03
Speaker 5: early on, Like I remember the Chiefs when they played
41:06
Speaker 5: early on, they were really stout against them. And you know,
41:09
Speaker 5: I get why the public is fascinating this team, but
41:11
Speaker 5: I think they were a year early.
41:14
Speaker 3: And it's moved the number two much.
41:16
Speaker 5: I don't think there's any value here plus three hundred,
41:19
Speaker 5: no value for me on this Chargers team. Like you
41:20
Speaker 5: just said, this draft it was good, but it was
41:23
Speaker 5: good in the sense that it's like, does it really
41:26
Speaker 5: help them be so much better than they were last year?
41:29
Speaker 5: Their run game was pretty stylid last year with a
41:31
Speaker 5: bunch of nobody, so obviously Hampton should be a big uptick.
41:33
Speaker 5: This kid seems like an absolute stud, you know, such
41:37
Speaker 5: a horrorball pick and at that spot like taking a
41:40
Speaker 5: running back where I didn't see it coming just because
41:44
Speaker 5: they already have guys. But after they make the pick,
41:46
Speaker 5: it makes total sense because he is so good. But
41:49
Speaker 5: you know, looking at it over, the more I look
41:52
Speaker 5: at their draft, I'm just like, Okay, it is a
41:54
Speaker 5: horriball draft. Right he went running back, wide receiver, and
41:57
Speaker 5: then a couple of guys in the D line like
41:58
Speaker 5: they're just filling it out, trying to get better, like
42:00
Speaker 5: you just said, trying to get more of his identity
42:02
Speaker 5: as they go along here.
42:04
Speaker 3: But a plus three hundred that just feels like.
42:06
Speaker 5: Way too much respect for what they did last year
42:09
Speaker 5: or last year felt very flukey based on the schedule
42:12
Speaker 5: they had, and very fluke in the sense that Mint
42:14
Speaker 5: during this defense was just out of this world how
42:16
Speaker 5: good they were for the first twelve weeks. So yeah,
42:20
Speaker 5: for value wise, I wouldn't bet them for this division.
42:23
Speaker 1: I thought it was interesting with the Broncos. Sean Payton
42:26
Speaker 1: was really vocal all weekend defending Shador Sanders, talking about
42:31
Speaker 1: how he knew the family. You know, he had been
42:33
Speaker 1: in Dallas when Shador was in Texas and has a
42:38
Speaker 1: relationship with them, and was truly saying teams are going
42:41
Speaker 1: to regret passing on Shad Door Sanders. He didn't draft
42:44
Speaker 1: Shad Door Sanders to be a backup to bo Nicks
42:47
Speaker 1: at any point, no matter how valuable he thought the
42:50
Speaker 1: placement might.
42:51
Speaker 2: Have been might have been. In the draft.
42:52
Speaker 1: They did draft that cornerback from Texas, Baron, who you know,
42:56
Speaker 1: is crazy fast. To me, they're more interesting as a
43:00
Speaker 1: play at plus three twenty five then the Chargers at
43:03
Speaker 1: plus three hundred because we saw how good this defense was,
43:07
Speaker 1: and we saw bo Knicks get better and better every
43:09
Speaker 1: single week. So now all of a sudden they've got
43:12
Speaker 1: another weapon in that secondary that makes them that much
43:16
Speaker 1: more challenging for a team like Kansas City, which has
43:20
Speaker 1: the best quarterback in the NFL.
43:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're gonna like it even more.
43:24
Speaker 4: Chet.
43:24
Speaker 3: It's plus three seventy five plus four hundred, so even better.
43:27
Speaker 2: Ma, dude should have put my glasses on for that one.
43:31
Speaker 5: No, it's to me, that's the value in this division,
43:33
Speaker 5: right Like, I feel like you just nailed it. Where
43:35
Speaker 5: we're banking on the year two jump from bow Knicks,
43:38
Speaker 5: which we I know it's annoying people, but it's a
43:40
Speaker 5: it's a real thing that year two jump with these
43:42
Speaker 5: quarterbacks go through. You know Mahomes first MVP season, that
43:46
Speaker 5: was this first year as a start, it was a
43:47
Speaker 5: year two jump. Lamar first year's MVP year two jump,
43:52
Speaker 5: you know, second season as a starter. So this draft,
43:55
Speaker 5: to me, they nailed it. Like I love the quarterback
43:58
Speaker 5: that got out of Texas and now you know your
44:01
Speaker 5: secondary is one of your biggest straints. Now it's like
44:04
Speaker 5: even more insane, like it's just another team that they
44:07
Speaker 5: didn't force a draft pick. They didn't force a D
44:09
Speaker 5: lineman that they do need. They took the best player
44:12
Speaker 5: available on their draft board. And I loved it. And
44:14
Speaker 5: you know, Harvey the running back from UFC. It'll be
44:18
Speaker 5: unknown how good he'll be in the NFL, but he's
44:21
Speaker 5: got all these free qualities to him. And I love
44:24
Speaker 5: those type of running backs where it's like, yes see
44:26
Speaker 5: the vision and a guy that you know, Peyton is
44:30
Speaker 5: just like out of this world. He the stuff he
44:32
Speaker 5: can do with running backs. You know, Darren Sproll is
44:35
Speaker 5: the first one that pops on the mind what he
44:37
Speaker 5: was able to do with him once he came down
44:38
Speaker 5: there and Reggie Bush. Yeah right, Reggie Bush. He just
44:43
Speaker 5: he can he can keep going. He no, but seriously,
44:48
Speaker 5: he gets this vision for these guys and he can
44:50
Speaker 5: mold the offense around them as well, which is something
44:52
Speaker 5: very unique to Sean Payton and his offensive schemes.
44:55
Speaker 3: So you know, big big deal. They've done all this,
44:59
Speaker 3: and our.
45:00
Speaker 5: View of it is just okay, the defense takes another step,
45:03
Speaker 5: if bon next tacks another step, it's all there.
45:06
Speaker 3: Right.
45:06
Speaker 5: They have a coach who, in my mind, is on
45:08
Speaker 5: the same type of level offensively as Andy Reid is.
45:11
Speaker 5: And you saw that last year, like Bo Nicks. I
45:14
Speaker 5: wish people could heard Man Mitchell talk about him coming
45:16
Speaker 5: to the season this. I think most college fans buried that.
45:19
Speaker 3: Man.
45:19
Speaker 5: They're just like, who the hell are they taking their
45:21
Speaker 5: first round and bone Knicks and he saw his year
45:24
Speaker 5: went along like he fits so perfectly.
45:26
Speaker 3: Into that scheme that he was running.
45:27
Speaker 5: So really excited to see if they have a year
45:29
Speaker 5: to jump or a team that could just be like
45:32
Speaker 5: what they were last year they overachieved and just fall
45:34
Speaker 5: in their face because bone Knicks is overrated and he
45:36
Speaker 5: just got lucky after one fluke year in the NFL
45:39
Speaker 5: so high upside team, huge floor, like really could drop
45:45
Speaker 5: down to five six wins this up coming season just because.
45:48
Speaker 3: They were so ahead of the child. I remember they
45:50
Speaker 3: had a run.
45:50
Speaker 5: At one point they had won like seven straight road games,
45:53
Speaker 5: like very bizarre, how damnant they were. So yeah, this
45:56
Speaker 5: is this is a team that you know, really out
45:59
Speaker 5: kicked their cover left last season.
46:00
Speaker 3: We took them and take another step. We're gonna bet
46:03
Speaker 3: on it, but I am nervous making this bet on Bonnicks.
46:07
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the Las Vegas Raiders at
46:09
Speaker 1: sixteen to one with Gino Smith and Ashton Genty and
46:15
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll as the head coach, I'd be tempted to
46:19
Speaker 1: take their over season win total. Tempted because I do
46:24
Speaker 1: think there's enough talent with Gino Smith and brought Bauers
46:27
Speaker 1: and Ashton Genty, they will just be so much better
46:30
Speaker 1: than last year offensively, and the market will keep them
46:34
Speaker 1: being depressed.
46:36
Speaker 5: Well, something really depressing is I got this at twenty
46:38
Speaker 5: to one, and then when they added Gino it only moved.
46:40
Speaker 3: To sixteen to one, So it just shows the books just.
46:43
Speaker 5: Don't respect Gino at all. I'm with you though, this
46:48
Speaker 5: number feels insane. Like, like we said before, this is
46:51
Speaker 5: a physical game. We've already seen Mahomes. You know, he
46:55
Speaker 5: got injured on a touch push. That's why he doesn't
46:57
Speaker 5: even do QB sneaks anymore, like his knee. Last time
46:59
Speaker 5: he did a q YOU sneak, his knee popped out.
47:01
Speaker 5: I remember that, and there's a reason they don't do
47:03
Speaker 5: that with him anymore.
47:05
Speaker 3: You know, this is a fickle league.
47:07
Speaker 5: So it's like this, this Raiders team is going to
47:10
Speaker 5: take such a huge jump going from Minshew to Gino Smith,
47:14
Speaker 5: a guy who is smart and his patient in the
47:17
Speaker 5: pocket and can read a defense. Yeah, like I hate
47:21
Speaker 5: that genty win here, but maybe that pick saved my ass.
47:24
Speaker 5: Like if he would have went after pick six, that
47:26
Speaker 5: would have.
47:27
Speaker 3: Cost me an insane amount of money. So yeah, I
47:29
Speaker 3: got really lucky he went there.
47:31
Speaker 5: Don't know if I love the fit for gent, but
47:33
Speaker 5: it's like that's an instant a plus move for their
47:37
Speaker 5: offense right Like this already this is already going to
47:40
Speaker 5: let it be that the box if they ever even
47:43
Speaker 5: try a stack against Gino.
47:44
Speaker 3: We've seen Geno.
47:45
Speaker 5: Maybe that was part of the DK effect, but to me,
47:47
Speaker 5: Gino is best downfield, like him pushing the ball down
47:50
Speaker 5: field is when he's at his best. For some reason,
47:52
Speaker 5: it's when he's like you know, taking his time too
47:54
Speaker 5: long in the pocket, trying to go through all his
47:56
Speaker 5: motions that he struggles. So I'm with you, Chad. The
47:59
Speaker 5: fact that this is sixteen to one. Still it's just
48:02
Speaker 5: like Cleveland. We'll throw a little bet on it, just
48:04
Speaker 5: because the crazy things that have happened. My big, big
48:07
Speaker 5: bet like that, I'm gonna take a large position on
48:10
Speaker 5: It's going to be the chiefs in this division at
48:12
Speaker 5: minus one thirty. That's where if you want to lock
48:14
Speaker 5: up your money now, that's where I would go with it.
48:15
Speaker 5: But if you're like us, you love madness and the
48:19
Speaker 5: crazy upside.
48:20
Speaker 3: Sixteen to one. Geno Smith, come on, let's throw a
48:23
Speaker 3: little piece on that.
48:24
Speaker 1: We began our back to backs yesterday talking about mel
48:29
Speaker 1: Kuiper and his meldowns about Shador Sanders and a chart
48:35
Speaker 1: in which the exemplar, one of the exemplars of his
48:41
Speaker 1: grading quarterbacks highly who then sunk down the draft, was
48:46
Speaker 1: Geno Smith. We end it talking about how we believe
48:51
Speaker 1: enough in Geno Smith they were willing to take a
48:54
Speaker 1: taste on the Raiders at sixteen to one.
48:58
Speaker 2: Good for us, Good for that. We bring a full
49:00
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