Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Were YOUR Midterm Profits Substantial Enough to Soothe the Pain?

Transcript

Were YOUR Midterm Profits Substantial Enough to Soothe the Pain? · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Well,
• 0:01
  it's a brave new world out there,
• 0:03
  now that the midterms are over and the blue mega tsunami has rolled through.
• 0:07
  But the good news is we've survived it.
• 0:09
  Yes,
• 0:09
  we can survive,
• 0:10
  we can make changes,
• 0:12
  we can improve the future,
• 0:13
  and hopefully,
• 0:14
  maybe you even made a little bit of profit in
• 0:16
  prediction markets on the elections at the same time.
• 0:18
  We'll go over,
• 0:19
  Uh,
• 0:19
  my thoughts on last night's results and also detail
• 0:22
  every single investment I made on,
• 0:24
  uh,
• 0:25
  prediction markets
• 0:26
  for this election
• 0:27
  and how it paid off,
• 0:28
  even the ones I'm very annoyed and pissed at myself about.
• 0:31
  Uh,
• 0:31
  you also don't wanna miss that and so much more.
• 0:33
  We're gonna kick it off right now on a brand new predictable with Stu.
• 0:51
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:54
  PredictableShow.com is the address to go to get connected
• 0:56
  to everything you need to know about prediction markets,
• 0:59
  elections,
• 1:00
  uh,
• 1:00
  all the cool stuff,
• 1:01
  uh,
• 1:02
  YouTube.com/atpredictableshw.
• 1:04
  Go there and make sure to subscribe to the channel.
• 1:06
  I know a good chunk of people who watch the show on YouTube
• 1:09
  aren't subscribers.
• 1:10
  Um,
• 1:10
  so if you have a moment,
• 1:11
  please just click,
• 1:12
  click subscribe.
• 1:12
  It helps
• 1:13
  the show and helps us,
• 1:14
  uh,
• 1:14
  continue to bring it,
• 1:15
  uh,
• 1:15
  to you.
• 1:16
  Um.
• 1:18
  There's a couple of directions I could go right now.
• 1:20
  I have my opinions on politics.
• 1:22
  Uh,
• 1:22
  I,
• 1:23
  uh,
• 1:23
  espouse them often,
• 1:24
  and I was not happy with the results last night when it comes to politics
• 1:29
  and the way everything went.
• 1:31
  I was not looking forward to a blue mega tsunami,
• 1:34
  um.
• 1:35
  That being said,
• 1:37
  there's a lot of analysis out there today.
• 1:38
  I,
• 1:39
  I could,
• 1:39
  you know,
• 1:39
  I could go on forever about the politics of it.
• 1:41
  This is a show about prediction markets or at least viewing,
• 1:44
  uh,
• 1:44
  the news of the day and the news of the world through the lens of prediction markets.
• 1:48
  What can we learn from them?
• 1:49
  How do they operate in this environment?
• 1:51
  I wanna get into that a little bit.
• 1:52
  Um,
• 1:53
  but let me just set the scene briefly here.
• 1:56
  Uh,
• 1:56
  Democrats win the House,
• 1:57
  win the Senate,
• 1:58
  as voters describe,
• 1:59
  uh,
• 1:59
  just deliver a strong rebuke to Trump and Republicans,
• 2:03
  and that's a very boring way to put what happened last night.
• 2:05
  Um,
• 2:06
  let me,
• 2:06
  uh,
• 2:07
  give you another version of this,
• 2:08
  uh,
• 2:09
  from the writer Derek Thompson.
• 2:11
  He writes,
• 2:12
  it's November 6,
• 2:13
  2024.
• 2:13
  You're a Democrat.
• 2:15
  Trump just won again.
• 2:16
  You roll over in bed and take a clinically insane hit of opium.
• 2:20
  A vision appears and you in tone.
• 2:22
  In 2 years,
• 2:23
  a Democrat is going to win Texas
• 2:26
  by more than Kamala Harris just won Illinois or New Jersey,
• 2:30
  and Jon Ossoff is going to win Georgia by more
• 2:33
  than the Harris margin in Connecticut or New York.
• 2:36
  Your partner would rightly order an Uber
• 2:38
  and send you to the nearest hospital for hallucinations.
• 2:40
  This doesn't seem real.
• 2:41
  You know,
• 2:41
  it doesn't seem real.
• 2:43
  Uh,
• 2:44
  you know,
• 2:44
  and I,
• 2:44
  I,
• 2:45
  I fall back sometimes when I'm thinking about this of like,
• 2:47
  you know,
• 2:47
  it really is interesting.
• 2:48
  I mean people are very upset about the economy,
• 2:49
  obviously.
• 2:50
  I think there's something to that,
• 2:51
  obviously,
• 2:52
  gas prices,
• 2:53
  there's a bunch of different things that people are frustrated about,
• 2:55
  but like,
• 2:57
  You know,
• 2:57
  it's at some level,
• 2:58
  it's that still doesn't add up to me,
• 3:00
  right?
• 3:00
  Like this is not 2008.
• 3:02
  We had a financial
• 3:03
  crisis.
• 3:04
  This is
• 3:05
  a bigger defeat than even 2008 was with Barack Obama.
• 3:10
  How?
• 3:10
  I mean,
• 3:11
  uh,
• 3:11
  we were in the middle of a financial collapse,
• 3:14
  2020.
• 3:14
  We were locking people inside of buildings all over the place.
• 3:17
  We didn't let people go to work or to school,
• 3:20
  and that election was not as,
• 3:21
  as dramatic as this one.
• 3:23
  It's a huge,
• 3:24
  huge thing that we're gonna be analyzing over the next,
• 3:26
  uh,
• 3:27
  several months and years,
• 3:29
  uh,
• 3:29
  frankly,
• 3:30
  a complete catastrophe for Republicans,
• 3:32
  uh,
• 3:32
  for,
• 3:33
  you know,
• 3:33
  whatever you wanna say,
• 3:34
  the MAGA movement,
• 3:35
  the conservative,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:36
  whatever you wanna say it was,
• 3:38
  uh,
• 3:38
  frankly,
• 3:38
  not a good night.
• 3:39
  You see the massive swings,
• 3:41
  uh,
• 3:41
  that Patrick Raffini put this together,
• 3:43
  2024 to 20206 swings among the groups,
• 3:45
  uh,
• 3:45
  that swung right in 2024.
• 3:47
  And,
• 3:47
  you know,
• 3:47
  and from 20 to 220 to 2024,
• 3:49
  Latino men went to the right,
• 3:51
  to Republicans
• 3:52
  by 33 points.
• 3:54
  They doubled back,
• 3:55
  uh,
• 3:55
  to 24 points
• 3:57
  the opposite direction in this election.
• 3:59
  Um,
• 3:59
  Catholics,
• 4:00
  I want 25 points to the right,
• 4:01
  snap back 16 more to the left.
• 4:03
  Now some of these are still movements
• 4:05
  if you compare them to 2020,
• 4:07
  where there's still been an improvement for Republicans
• 4:10
  overall,
• 4:11
  but
• 4:12
  massive snapback from 2024,
• 4:13
  and some of these groups went the opposite direction.
• 4:15
  Maybe the most dramatic is voters 18 to 29,
• 4:18
  who went 13 points to Republicans in 2024
• 4:21
  and came back 35 points in the opposite direction.
• 4:24
  Now even more Democrat than they were in 2020.
• 4:26
  A bunch of other groups here as well,
• 4:28
  kind of the same story
• 4:29
  over and over and over and over again.
• 4:30
  Really no
• 4:32
  good news
• 4:33
  for Republicans
• 4:35
  anywhere
• 4:35
  on the map.
• 4:36
  The only thing you can kinda point to,
• 4:38
  sort of kinda,
• 4:40
  Florida.
• 4:41
  Florida wound up,
• 4:42
  uh,
• 4:42
  sticking around,
• 4:43
  uh,
• 4:43
  and,
• 4:44
  you know,
• 4:44
  very small margins for the candidates in Florida on the Republican side,
• 4:47
  but they did win there.
• 4:49
  You also saw some of the,
• 4:50
  um,
• 4:51
  uh,
• 4:52
  red states that you'd expect
• 4:54
  hang on,
• 4:54
  but
• 4:55
  we'll get into a couple of those,
• 4:56
  uh,
• 4:56
  races that are not hanging on
• 4:58
  in just a few minutes,
• 5:00
  um.
• 5:01
  I can go through all the results with you
• 5:02
  and we're gonna go through all of my positions,
• 5:04
  every single position I took in the election and how it came out.
• 5:06
  That's one of the things I try to do after every one of these nights,
• 5:09
  so you know how we did,
• 5:10
  what my thinking was,
• 5:11
  hopefully how you did if you were coming on board with me,
• 5:14
  um,
• 5:14
  uh,
• 5:14
  on a lot of these positions,
• 5:16
  um.
• 5:17
  No matter what happened in the election last night,
• 5:20
  uh,
• 5:21
  one of the biggest winners of,
• 5:22
  of this entire cycle is going to be prediction markets.
• 5:26
  Prediction markets did very,
• 5:27
  very well in this election.
• 5:29
  Um,
• 5:30
  I'm not surprised by that.
• 5:31
  If you watch the show,
• 5:31
  you might not be surprised by that.
• 5:33
  If you're the type of person who kind of hears
• 5:34
  the bad stuff about prediction markets and people say,
• 5:37
  oh gosh,
• 5:37
  well,
• 5:37
  they're being manipulated and,
• 5:39
  and they're terrible,
• 5:40
  and they're lying to us,
• 5:41
  and,
• 5:41
  uh,
• 5:42
  you can't believe them,
• 5:43
  you know,
• 5:43
  once again,
• 5:44
  that kind of narrative has been
• 5:46
  shot down.
• 5:47
  Prediction markets do a very,
• 5:49
  very good job
• 5:51
  explaining the world to people.
• 5:52
  And,
• 5:53
  uh,
• 5:54
  you know,
• 5:54
  it's an innovation,
• 5:55
  and this is,
• 5:56
  you know,
• 5:56
  look,
• 5:57
  you know,
• 5:57
  a business of an exchange is to facilitate trades.
• 6:01
  An externality of that business
• 6:03
  is kind of what serves us as a news,
• 6:05
  um,
• 6:06
  uh,
• 6:08
  an audience,
• 6:08
  uh,
• 6:08
  you know,
• 6:09
  to,
• 6:09
  uh,
• 6:09
  encompass and take in
• 6:11
  as much news as,
• 6:12
  as possible.
• 6:12
  It's a better way to just to understand the world.
• 6:15
  And,
• 6:16
  um,
• 6:16
  you know,
• 6:17
  we could look at
• 6:18
  prediction markets,
• 6:19
  we could look at polling,
• 6:19
  polling,
• 6:20
  you know,
• 6:20
  you could look at polling and I,
• 6:21
  and I would love to see the,
• 6:22
  the end analysis of the polling.
• 6:25
  I think the impression for a lot of people is that it did well.
• 6:27
  Obviously it was predicting that Democrats would win in a,
• 6:30
  in a big way.
• 6:31
  That is true.
• 6:32
  It does seem like they underestimated Democrats considerably.
• 6:35
  Um,
• 6:36
  you know,
• 6:36
  there was a polling error here in a lot of these states.
• 6:38
  It was just a polling error that actually
• 6:40
  wound up
• 6:41
  making the Democrats' numbers even better than the,
• 6:43
  uh,
• 6:43
  the positive numbers that they looked at before,
• 6:45
  which is fascinating as well.
• 6:47
  Uh,
• 6:48
  how did it look?
• 6:48
  Uh,
• 6:49
  Calci put together a,
• 6:50
  um,
• 6:50
  uh,
• 6:51
  midterm calibration and accuracy
• 6:53
  report.
• 6:54
  Uh,
• 6:54
  they churned this one out right away.
• 6:56
  Um,
• 6:56
  we've talked about their reporting before on this,
• 6:58
  and this has been,
• 6:59
  uh,
• 6:59
  confirmed by
• 7:01
  outside sources as well.
• 7:02
  So it's not just,
• 7:02
  you know,
• 7:03
  kind of Kelshi,
• 7:03
  Calci,
• 7:04
  you know,
• 7:05
  writing reports about itself.
• 7:06
  Um,
• 7:07
  Poly Market released one as well,
• 7:08
  uh,
• 7:08
  that showed similar positive results.
• 7:11
  Poly Market
• 7:12
  and Calci and,
• 7:13
  uh,
• 7:13
  lots of these exchanges did very,
• 7:15
  very well through this.
• 7:16
  Let me give you a quick rundown
• 7:18
  of Calci's recap.
• 7:20
  Uh,
• 7:20
  the favorite on Calci
• 7:22
  won
• 7:23
  479 out of 487 midterm races,
• 7:27
  479 out of 487.
• 7:29
  It's very,
• 7:29
  very positive.
• 7:30
  98%,
• 7:32
  uh,
• 7:32
  correct,
• 7:33
  uh,
• 7:33
  forecasted before a single vote was counted.
• 7:35
  The markets beat the polls
• 7:37
  and the models.
• 7:38
  Head to head with forecasting models,
• 7:40
  the markets were more accurate.
• 7:42
  Breyer score measures,
• 7:43
  which is kind of like basically a report card on how you make predictions,
• 7:46
  a Breyer score.
• 7:48
  Um,
• 7:48
  and it's,
• 7:49
  it's about calibration too.
• 7:50
  It's not just like,
• 7:51
  are you right or you're wrong,
• 7:52
  but also it's something that you predict that is going to happen 70% of the time.
• 7:55
  Does it happen 70% of the time
• 7:57
  or does it happen 0 or 100%?
• 7:59
  You want it to happen 70% of the time if you're predicting that,
• 8:02
  uh,
• 8:02
  percentage.
• 8:03
  Um.
• 8:03
  Uh,
• 8:05
  lower is better on the Breyer score,
• 8:06
  basically how she beat all of these other,
• 8:09
  uh,
• 8:09
  uh,
• 8:10
  models and such.
• 8:12
  Then you have,
• 8:13
  uh,
• 8:13
  traders called it faster than the news as well in key Senate races,
• 8:16
  the market had the winner
• 8:18
  at 99%,
• 8:19
  an average of 115 minutes before CNN made the call.
• 8:23
  115 minutes
• 8:26
  before CNN.
• 8:28
  Now
• 8:29
  That doesn't mean that everything's always gonna be perfect.
• 8:31
  Again,
• 8:32
  this is,
• 8:32
  uh,
• 8:33
  we're talking about percentages.
• 8:34
  Probability is part of this picture.
• 8:36
  If you don't understand probability,
• 8:37
  prediction markets are gonna be scary to you,
• 8:39
  right?
• 8:39
  And if you don't have a basic understanding of how percentages work,
• 8:42
  um,
• 8:42
  you're gonna look at this and say,
• 8:44
  well,
• 8:44
  wait a minute,
• 8:44
  I found one race where this was wrong.
• 8:47
  That's what happens on the internet all the time.
• 8:49
  And frankly,
• 8:50
  it's a,
• 8:51
  it's kind of boring,
• 8:52
  but it is the type of thing that
• 8:53
  happens when people are complaining about prediction markets.
• 8:56
  When you look at the data overall,
• 8:57
  the data is really,
• 8:59
  really clear.
• 8:59
  It's really,
• 9:00
  really clear,
• 9:01
  um,
• 9:01
  that these
• 9:02
  markets work really,
• 9:04
  really well.
• 9:05
  And the reason for that,
• 9:06
  you know,
• 9:06
  when we talk about prediction markets,
• 9:08
  what you're doing when you're on a prediction market is predicting,
• 9:11
  right?
• 9:11
  Like when I was on last night and I'm trading,
• 9:13
  I'm trying to predict what the future is and
• 9:15
  get those things right so I can be profitable.
• 9:18
  What prediction markets do when they spit out outcomes,
• 9:21
  can kind of serve as a prediction,
• 9:23
  but really what they're doing is distilling.
• 9:27
  All of human thought
• 9:29
  into one number for you,
• 9:31
  right?
• 9:31
  They're taking everything that everybody thinks,
• 9:33
  everybody's working
• 9:35
  against each other together
• 9:37
  to come up with what these markets wind up giving you,
• 9:40
  which is a percentage of probability and idea
• 9:43
  as to how
• 9:44
  often a particular event should occur.
• 9:46
  Uh,
• 9:46
  how likely is an event
• 9:48
  to occur,
• 9:49
  and the numbers are overwhelmingly positive for prediction markets here.
• 9:53
  Uh,
• 9:53
  probabilities meant what they said.
• 9:55
  Candidates priced at 50% when polls opened,
• 9:58
  won about 50% of the time.
• 9:59
  Same story
• 10:00
  at the other prices on Calci.
• 10:02
  You kind of see very close to that line.
• 10:04
  Uh,
• 10:04
  for those listening on podcasts,
• 10:05
  there's that tip.
• 10:06
  kind of line
• 10:07
  diagonally up from the bottom left-hand side of
• 10:09
  the graph to the upper right-hand side,
• 10:11
  a straight line.
• 10:12
  You want the results to be very close to that line,
• 10:14
  and as you see here,
• 10:15
  they were.
• 10:16
  Um,
• 10:16
  you know,
• 10:16
  you kind of see a little bit overconfidence of the favorites occasionally
• 10:20
  in these and a little underconfidence in some of the underdogs,
• 10:23
  but that's pretty much it.
• 10:24
  That's the story,
• 10:25
  um,
• 10:26
  you know,
• 10:26
  very,
• 10:26
  very close to,
• 10:27
  uh,
• 10:27
  what
• 10:28
  you would expect out of these markets.
• 10:29
  So,
• 10:30
  big win for prediction markets.
• 10:32
  Um,
• 10:32
  you know,
• 10:33
  this is gonna be,
• 10:33
  there's gonna be all sorts of battles.
• 10:35
  We're here to,
• 10:36
  to be,
• 10:37
  you know,
• 10:37
  participants in that because I,
• 10:38
  I think these things are really valuable.
• 10:40
  And I see it through a lens
• 10:41
  of,
• 10:42
  uh,
• 10:42
  of what I've seen my entire career,
• 10:44
  you know,
• 10:44
  when we started out in,
• 10:46
  uh,
• 10:46
  if you think about way back in the day,
• 10:48
  you've got 3 news anchors,
• 10:49
  right?
• 10:50
  And they're telling you exactly what you need to
• 10:52
  think and the only things you need to know,
• 10:53
  uh,
• 10:54
  the only news that's fit to print.
• 10:56
  And they would,
• 10:57
  they,
• 10:57
  they would describe all this,
• 10:58
  they would show it to you on the TV.
• 11:00
  They made those decisions.
• 11:02
  We worked hard for decades to expand that.
• 11:05
  First talk radio,
• 11:07
  Fox News Channel,
• 11:08
  uh,
• 11:08
  all these things that kind of said,
• 11:09
  hey,
• 11:10
  wait a minute,
• 11:10
  we're undercutting your monopoly on this.
• 11:12
  We're gonna tell the other stories,
• 11:13
  the stories we think are important.
• 11:15
  And then came along social media and podcasting and all these other things
• 11:19
  that have expanded the amount of voices.
• 11:21
  Um,
• 11:22
  through that,
• 11:22
  of course,
• 11:23
  there are really,
• 11:24
  really positive things that come out of some of that and really,
• 11:26
  really positive,
• 11:27
  uh,
• 11:27
  really some negatives that come out of that.
• 11:29
  Sometimes the,
• 11:30
  you know,
• 11:30
  people get too partisan,
• 11:31
  they start rooting on their own side too much.
• 11:33
  Um,
• 11:34
  some people get,
• 11:34
  uh,
• 11:35
  you know,
• 11:36
  they get clickbaity.
• 11:37
  They want you to think a certain thing,
• 11:39
  they're trying to influence you,
• 11:40
  and
• 11:40
  that all builds up.
• 11:41
  The next step in this process
• 11:43
  that I've been,
• 11:44
  you know,
• 11:44
  that started before I got into this business and continued through it,
• 11:47
  and now we're here,
• 11:48
  are prediction markets.
• 11:49
  It's a way to cut through
• 11:52
  those incentives.
• 11:55
  It's a way to cut through
• 11:57
  those people who are trying to do something other than give you the truth,
• 12:01
  and this is a way to anchor in
• 12:03
  the truth,
• 12:04
  shown over and over again.
• 12:06
  Um,
• 12:06
  so that's what we have,
• 12:07
  uh,
• 12:08
  and,
• 12:08
  and a big night from elections.
• 12:09
  I could break down the elections for you all day long.
• 12:11
  Um,
• 12:12
  we're gonna do some of that here in just a minute when we go through my positions.
• 12:14
  One other thing I wanna tell you though.
• 12:16
  Uh,
• 12:16
  a lot of people are asking me,
• 12:17
  hey,
• 12:17
  what are you gonna do with,
• 12:17
  uh,
• 12:18
  you know,
• 12:18
  hey,
• 12:18
  now there's not gonna be any elections,
• 12:19
  what are you gonna do on your show?
• 12:20
  We have tons of stuff,
• 12:21
  uh,
• 12:22
  coming up here,
• 12:23
  um,
• 12:23
  and really,
• 12:24
  um,
• 12:25
  making sure
• 12:26
  that what I just described happens for you in all sorts of different topics.
• 12:30
  It's not just sports,
• 12:31
  it's not just culture,
• 12:32
  it's,
• 12:32
  it's not just elections.
• 12:34
  It's delivering to you an better understanding of the world
• 12:38
  across
• 12:39
  every topic,
• 12:40
  because that's the great thing about these markets,
• 12:42
  there's a market for everything.
• 12:44
  And you can find those markets
• 12:46
  and we can understand the world better through them.
• 12:49
  So we will continue to do that.
• 12:51
  But if you're like,
• 12:51
  oh well,
• 12:51
  I just really like the election stuff,
• 12:53
  let me tell you how long you're gonna have to wait for elections,
• 12:56
  because this what I thought was fascinating,
• 12:57
  and we're not gonna go through all this,
• 12:58
  but
• 12:58
  JD Vance put this out on X,
• 13:01
  and he's talking about how,
• 13:02
  um,
• 13:03
  I'll show you some of this.
• 13:04
  One of the things
• 13:04
  data analysts on our side,
• 13:06
  uh,
• 13:06
  were obsessed about was composition,
• 13:08
  whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win.
• 13:11
  And despite the polls that showed a Democratic blowout,
• 13:14
  the data kept telling us the same story.
• 13:16
  In some states,
• 13:17
  turnout was merely OK,
• 13:18
  other states it was downright amazing.
• 13:20
  In no state was it catastrophic.
• 13:21
  Essentially,
• 13:22
  the Republicans did turn out to this election,
• 13:25
  but they kind of just,
• 13:25
  a lot of them voted for
• 13:27
  the Democrats.
• 13:28
  Republicans turned out,
• 13:29
  but some of them voted for Democrats.
• 13:32
  He goes on to,
• 13:33
  uh,
• 13:33
  let me go,
• 13:34
  uh,
• 13:34
  he goes on to say to kind of put blame on this.
• 13:36
  This is the 3rd part of this tweet,
• 13:38
  uh,
• 13:39
  the,
• 13:39
  the 4 answers of why Republicans were upset,
• 13:42
  ending the war,
• 13:43
  uh,
• 13:43
  focusing on cost of living and inflation,
• 13:45
  put America first,
• 13:46
  change our relationship to Israel.
• 13:48
  That's what JD Vance thinks that are the big problems.
• 13:50
  The reason I bring this up
• 13:51
  is because
• 13:52
  it is a very
• 13:54
  clear
• 13:55
  attempt
• 13:56
  to set a separation point between
• 13:58
  him
• 13:59
  and the Trump administration.
• 14:00
  Um,
• 14:01
  and to say,
• 14:02
  hey,
• 14:03
  uh,
• 14:03
  I was the guy behind the scenes saying don't go to war in Iran.
• 14:06
  That was the big problem,
• 14:07
  that's why we lost.
• 14:08
  You should still put me
• 14:10
  at the top of your ticket
• 14:11
  here in 2028.
• 14:13
  Um,
• 14:13
  and I don't know how Donald Trump's gonna react to that.
• 14:15
  He doesn't typically react well,
• 14:17
  uh,
• 14:17
  to such things.
• 14:18
  We don't know what's going on behind the scenes.
• 14:20
  I know Donald Trump Junior kind of cheered this on,
• 14:22
  so maybe this was sort of arranged in advance,
• 14:24
  maybe just JD Vance
• 14:26
  and Donald Trump Junior are on the same page and,
• 14:28
  and.
• 14:29
  Uh,
• 14:30
  Junior's trying to get out ahead of it.
• 14:31
  We,
• 14:31
  we don't know what the reasoning is,
• 14:33
  um,
• 14:33
  but we saw that.
• 14:34
  We saw Ron DeSantiss come out with,
• 14:36
  with comments saying,
• 14:37
  hey,
• 14:37
  did you notice Florida was,
• 14:38
  uh,
• 14:38
  went,
• 14:39
  went OK?
• 14:39
  Uh,
• 14:40
  everyone else had problems.
• 14:41
  We did well here in Florida.
• 14:42
  There's a reason for that.
• 14:43
  Everyone's starting to position themselves.
• 14:45
  I say that to say,
• 14:46
  I mean,
• 14:47
  even all you care about is elections.
• 14:48
  There's gonna be so much 2028 stuff and it already started.
• 14:51
  It started today.
• 14:52
  It's 2026.
• 14:53
  The 2028 election
• 14:54
  started
• 14:55
  today.
• 14:56
  Multiple candidates signaling strongly,
• 14:58
  they're in this thing,
• 14:59
  and this is happening,
• 15:00
  so.
• 15:02
  Buckle up.
• 15:02
  We've got tons of election stuff to bring to you,
• 15:04
  but also
• 15:06
  tons of stuff
• 15:07
  from across different categories to make sure that
• 15:09
  you get the best information that you need
• 15:11
  to understand the world.
• 15:12
  We want to make an unpredictable world a little bit more
• 15:16
  predictable.
• 15:17
  If you kind of stuck with what we did.
• 15:19
  We have a thing on um predictableShow.com called our,
• 15:22
  you know,
• 15:22
  the premium
• 15:23
  subscription,
• 15:24
  the predictable posse.
• 15:25
  We uh put up Stu's picks every single week
• 15:28
  that are all my prediction market positions,
• 15:30
  um,
• 15:31
  and you get to see them in advance.
• 15:32
  I'm gonna show you what I had on the selection.
• 15:34
  If you follow those picks,
• 15:35
  you did pretty well.
• 15:37
  Um,
• 15:37
  there's a couple of misses.
• 15:39
  Not everything was perfect.
• 15:40
  I've got some criticism for,
• 15:41
  you know,
• 15:42
  myself
• 15:43
  and the way I handled a couple of these contracts.
• 15:45
  We'll get into that.
• 15:45
  I'll show you everything.
• 15:46
  We opened the books here at Predictable.
• 15:48
  I'll show you every little piece of it,
• 15:50
  we'll do that next.
• 16:08
  I'm now working on
• 16:10
  two consecutive days with basically no sleep.
• 16:12
  I'm tired,
• 16:14
  I'm loopy.
• 16:15
  I don't even know what's going on anymore.
• 16:17
  But I did want to tell you about every
• 16:19
  single prediction market position I took for this election.
• 16:21
  And this is gonna be a little bit,
• 16:22
  I wanna walk you through the selections.
• 16:24
  It will help us talk about the results
• 16:26
  as well.
• 16:26
  Uh,
• 16:27
  we put these up,
• 16:27
  as I said,
• 16:28
  at predictableshow.com in advance so you can get on,
• 16:30
  you can get all these whenever you want them.
• 16:32
  Um,
• 16:33
  they're there all the time for you.
• 16:35
  And you can get out in front of these if you'd like to,
• 16:37
  uh,
• 16:37
  hopefully win at prediction markets,
• 16:40
  uh,
• 16:40
  as we,
• 16:40
  these things get bigger and bigger and bigger as we go forward.
• 16:42
  All right,
• 16:42
  let's go through this.
• 16:43
  It's gonna take a little bit,
• 16:44
  but we'll talk about each election as we go.
• 16:46
  Starting with the Senate,
• 16:47
  uh,
• 16:47
  here's where we go.
• 16:48
  Florida Senate was,
• 16:49
  uh,
• 16:50
  my biggest,
• 16:50
  I think,
• 16:51
  single position coming into
• 16:53
  the election,
• 16:54
  uh,
• 16:54
  Ashley Moody.
• 16:55
  Uh,
• 16:55
  uh,
• 16:55
  yes,
• 16:56
  and,
• 16:56
  uh,
• 16:57
  Nixon,
• 16:58
  no,
• 16:58
  we've hit both of those.
• 17:00
  Also had some margin markets that was,
• 17:02
  I did hit the
• 17:03
  Moody plus,
• 17:04
  uh,
• 17:04
  2 or more points of victory,
• 17:07
  um,
• 17:07
  but we're gonna miss on the +46,
• 17:09
  and 8.
• 17:09
  And that is a big story of what happened in
• 17:11
  Florida and kind of told the story of the night.
• 17:13
  As you got into this,
• 17:14
  uh,
• 17:14
  you know,
• 17:15
  wow,
• 17:15
  actually,
• 17:16
  Moody's only winning by 2.
• 17:18
  This is not a good sign for the rest of the country,
• 17:20
  you know,
• 17:21
  I was thinking she might win by 89,
• 17:22
  10.
• 17:23
  Uh,
• 17:24
  the fact that she only won by 2 was a big sign as to where this was going,
• 17:27
  and it went in a very negative decision,
• 17:30
  uh,
• 17:30
  direction for,
• 17:31
  um,
• 17:32
  Republicans in general.
• 17:34
  Um,
• 17:34
  next up is Texas,
• 17:35
  and this is a little bit misleading,
• 17:37
  I would say.
• 17:38
  Uh,
• 17:38
  it's hard to,
• 17:39
  so.
• 17:40
  You see here,
• 17:40
  it says,
• 17:41
  I went 3 and 2 in Texas.
• 17:42
  Um,
• 17:44
  the Tallarico,
• 17:45
  yes,
• 17:45
  is an all-in position,
• 17:46
  my biggest size position.
• 17:47
  That's a win.
• 17:48
  I'll tell you more about that in a second.
• 17:49
  Tallarico winning Tarrant County,
• 17:51
  that was one I really,
• 17:52
  really liked.
• 17:53
  Told you about that.
• 17:53
  We hit that one.
• 17:54
  You see a Paxton,
• 17:55
  yes,
• 17:55
  and a Tallarico,
• 17:56
  no.
• 17:57
  Those are positions I had much earlier,
• 17:59
  um,
• 18:00
  and wound up losing,
• 18:01
  uh,
• 18:02
  some money on it.
• 18:02
  I did sell out of those,
• 18:04
  and also a,
• 18:05
  uh,
• 18:05
  I had a Paxton 5-point win,
• 18:07
  no,
• 18:07
  which we hit.
• 18:08
  The Tallarico,
• 18:09
  yes,
• 18:09
  which was an all-in position,
• 18:10
  was something I went in on later in the evening.
• 18:13
  Basically,
• 18:14
  when I realized Tallarico was a sure thing in my mind,
• 18:18
  I put as much available capital as I could into it.
• 18:21
  Only got a couple of percent out of that,
• 18:23
  uh,
• 18:23
  but,
• 18:24
  You know,
• 18:24
  when you,
• 18:25
  when you put in as much as you can,
• 18:26
  and that,
• 18:27
  that can add up.
• 18:28
  And one of the things you can do in prediction markets on election nights
• 18:30
  when it's cascading across the country is take that money.
• 18:34
  Uh,
• 18:34
  put it in a contract,
• 18:35
  uh,
• 18:36
  hit it for a couple percent,
• 18:37
  and then to take that money and roll it over to the next time zone
• 18:39
  with another 2 or 3% gain.
• 18:41
  I did do that a couple of times,
• 18:43
  uh,
• 18:43
  last night.
• 18:43
  So that was not a big,
• 18:45
  I was not right necessarily on the Tallarico.
• 18:47
  I did not have a big position on either one of those candidates.
• 18:49
  I tried to stay out of that race,
• 18:51
  uh,
• 18:52
  but we still made a profit on the race overall.
• 18:54
  Georgia Senate,
• 18:55
  uh,
• 18:55
  was a big position that I had.
• 18:56
  Ossoff,
• 18:57
  yes.
• 18:57
  Collins,
• 18:58
  no.
• 18:59
  Hit both of those and all in position on Ossoff,
• 19:01
  yes.
• 19:02
  Uh the margin markets,
• 19:03
  we had a bunch of them.
• 19:04
  Ossoff winning by 23456,
• 19:08
  and 8,
• 19:08
  hit all of those for 8 to 0 in the Georgia Senate.
• 19:11
  Idaho Senate all,
• 19:12
  all in position on Risch to win.
• 19:15
  We hit that one.
• 19:15
  Achilles,
• 19:16
  no.
• 19:16
  The other one was,
• 19:18
  this is a position we kind of took late
• 19:19
  in the game as the blue wave looked like it was building,
• 19:22
  looking for,
• 19:23
  uh,
• 19:23
  lightly polled Republican races.
• 19:26
  That you'd normally expect big victories from Republicans
• 19:28
  and say,
• 19:29
  OK,
• 19:29
  maybe they're gonna undercut those,
• 19:30
  maybe they won't get to those huge numbers.
• 19:33
  In that one we took Risch,
• 19:34
  uh,
• 19:34
  not getting,
• 19:35
  uh,
• 19:36
  a 19-point victory and that wound up playing out.
• 19:38
  OK,
• 19:39
  next group,
• 19:40
  uh,
• 19:40
  we have Ohio Senate.
• 19:42
  This is one of my bigger wins of the night.
• 19:43
  Hughes said,
• 19:43
  no,
• 19:44
  Brown,
• 19:44
  yes,
• 19:45
  uh,
• 19:45
  large positions there,
• 19:47
  uh,
• 19:47
  hit both of those
• 19:48
  for 2 and 0.
• 19:49
  Montana,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  went large there with Bodnar,
• 19:52
  no,
• 19:52
  Almay,
• 19:53
  yes,
• 19:54
  Bankhead,
• 19:54
  no,
• 19:55
  and then.
• 19:56
  Uh,
• 19:56
  uh,
• 19:56
  Almay to not win by more than 15,
• 19:58
  the same kind of thought we were just talking about,
• 20:01
  and we hit that one as well,
• 20:02
  4-0
• 20:03
  in Montana.
• 20:04
  Arkansas Senate,
• 20:05
  we hit,
• 20:06
  uh,
• 20:07
  the main race there,
• 20:08
  Cotton,
• 20:08
  yes,
• 20:08
  and Schaffner,
• 20:09
  no.
• 20:09
  That was one where there's some polling that looked to be close.
• 20:12
  I didn't believe it.
• 20:13
  We hit both of those in large positions,
• 20:15
  missed on a
• 20:16
  very small margin market there.
• 20:18
  Cotton winning by 14.
• 20:19
  Looks like he's gonna win about,
• 20:20
  I think it was by about 12,
• 20:22
  um,
• 20:23
  but we,
• 20:23
  so we'll miss that one.
• 20:25
  South Dakota Senate,
• 20:26
  uh,
• 20:26
  most of these weren't a hit here.
• 20:28
  Uh,
• 20:28
  Rounds,
• 20:28
  yes,
• 20:29
  was a large position that we took,
• 20:31
  uh,
• 20:31
  and did well there,
• 20:33
  and Bangs,
• 20:33
  his opponent,
• 20:34
  no.
• 20:35
  Uh,
• 20:35
  we had some margin markets as well mixed in.
• 20:38
  Um,
• 20:39
  Ros winning by 15 and 17,
• 20:41
  we're gonna hit,
• 20:42
  still open as to whether we're gonna hit that 19 plus position or not.
• 20:45
  Looks pretty good,
• 20:46
  but we're not sure yet on that +11 of my biggest disappointments of the evening,
• 20:50
  Iowa Senate,
• 20:51
  uh,
• 20:51
  Hinson,
• 20:52
  a loss.
• 20:53
  Uh,
• 20:54
  real lessons learned here.
• 20:55
  Turk,
• 20:55
  no,
• 20:55
  Hinson,
• 20:56
  yes,
• 20:56
  I lost both of those.
• 20:57
  Both of those were large positions.
• 20:59
  That one sucked,
• 21:00
  and it,
• 21:00
  it,
• 21:00
  it sucked a lot,
• 21:01
  to be honest with you.
• 21:02
  Um,
• 21:03
  it was one of my first picks.
• 21:04
  I thought that one was gonna be very,
• 21:05
  very strong.
• 21:06
  And,
• 21:07
  uh,
• 21:07
  did not,
• 21:08
  did not hit it.
• 21:08
  And I'm disappointed in that one,
• 21:10
  mainly because I think,
• 21:12
  you know,
• 21:12
  I,
• 21:12
  I,
• 21:12
  we came on,
• 21:13
  on panic day a few weeks ago
• 21:15
  and said,
• 21:15
  hey,
• 21:16
  what are the things I should do
• 21:17
  here?
• 21:18
  I,
• 21:18
  and I said I should trim this position.
• 21:20
  I did trim it a little bit,
• 21:21
  but not nearly enough.
• 21:22
  And I,
• 21:23
  I should have sold out of it,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:25
  more and more throughout the day.
• 21:27
  Uh,
• 21:28
  didn't,
• 21:28
  I kind of just went down on the ship with the ship on it,
• 21:30
  and that's dumb.
• 21:31
  Uh,
• 21:32
  in fact,
• 21:33
  18th Amendment of the Constitution,
• 21:35
  the predictable Constitution,
• 21:36
  is don't fall in love with your own trades.
• 21:38
  I had convinced myself
• 21:39
  that Henson was a good candidate,
• 21:40
  and I think she was.
• 21:41
  I think she ran a good race,
• 21:42
  but you know,
• 21:42
  the,
• 21:43
  the climate overwhelmed her,
• 21:44
  and I stuck with it,
• 21:45
  and I,
• 21:46
  I rode it into the ground and I titanicked it into the iceberg,
• 21:49
  and that's dumb.
• 21:51
  Uh,
• 21:51
  you shouldn't do that.
• 21:52
  When you realize the tides are turning against you,
• 21:54
  it's OK,
• 21:55
  uh,
• 21:55
  to take a loss,
• 21:56
  as we would say with the 17th Amendment to the Constitution,
• 21:59
  a smaller loss is a win.
• 22:01
  And when you can have,
• 22:02
  when you can,
• 22:02
  you look at it anytime you're trading anything.
• 22:05
  It's OK to take a loss.
• 22:06
  I feel,
• 22:07
  I have examples of this later on,
• 22:09
  and I feel much better about them than the Henson race.
• 22:12
  So,
• 22:12
  that one I blew,
• 22:13
  and,
• 22:14
  uh,
• 22:14
  you know,
• 22:14
  part of the reason what it turned,
• 22:16
  turned my election night
• 22:18
  from what would have been a fantastic night into merely a pretty good one,
• 22:23
  losing that one.
• 22:23
  So anyway,
• 22:24
  that's the Iowa Senate story.
• 22:26
  Next up,
• 22:26
  uh,
• 22:26
  we've got North Carolina Senate did very,
• 22:28
  very well there,
• 22:29
  no surprise,
• 22:29
  we got into this one very early with Cooper
• 22:31
  over Watley,
• 22:32
  hit those two with big.
• 22:33
  Um,
• 22:34
  margins,
• 22:34
  and then the margin markets we did as well.
• 22:37
  Will Cooper win by 356759,
• 22:42
  we're all over the board,
• 22:43
  we hit all of those 8 and 0 in,
• 22:44
  in North Carolina.
• 22:45
  Mississippi,
• 22:46
  we did,
• 22:47
  this is an example of the,
• 22:48
  uh,
• 22:48
  of me doing it a little bit
• 22:49
  more
• 22:51
  right.
• 22:51
  Um,
• 22:52
  in Mississippi.
• 22:53
  Uh,
• 22:54
  we had,
• 22:55
  uh,
• 22:56
  uh,
• 22:56
  Hyde Smith,
• 22:57
  yes,
• 22:57
  and,
• 22:58
  uh,
• 22:58
  Colomb,
• 22:58
  no.
• 22:59
  This is a race,
• 23:00
  of course,
• 23:00
  obviously Republicans should be winning easily.
• 23:02
  It's a freaking Mississippi Senate race.
• 23:04
  Um,
• 23:04
  so I had that,
• 23:05
  and I,
• 23:05
  you know,
• 23:06
  part of my panic day,
• 23:08
  uh,
• 23:08
  referendum as we were getting closer and I was like,
• 23:10
  gosh,
• 23:11
  this might be really,
• 23:11
  really ugly a few weeks ago,
• 23:12
  I said.
• 23:13
  I need to cut my Hyde Smith position.
• 23:15
  I don't believe in her as a candidate,
• 23:17
  and I need to trim that way,
• 23:18
  way back.
• 23:18
  I did trim it back by about 50%,
• 23:20
  um,
• 23:21
  and then
• 23:22
  I trimmed it back even more as we approached election day,
• 23:25
  as,
• 23:25
  and I was taking small losses,
• 23:27
  which is OK.
• 23:28
  Um,
• 23:28
  I did lose some money,
• 23:29
  uh,
• 23:30
  leading up to the election,
• 23:31
  and then,
• 23:31
  um,
• 23:32
  it bounced around until it actually got up a little bit from my,
• 23:35
  um,
• 23:35
  my position
• 23:37
  on Hyde Smith,
• 23:38
  and I sold out of it.
• 23:39
  I said I don't want anything to do with this.
• 23:40
  It looked like she was gonna win.
• 23:41
  It was at like 92.
• 23:42
  I'm like,
• 23:42
  I am done.
• 23:43
  I want out of this race desperately.
• 23:45
  I got out.
• 23:46
  And now it looks like she's gonna lose.
• 23:47
  She's down by,
• 23:48
  last I saw 40-something votes.
• 23:50
  So,
• 23:51
  that is a,
• 23:52
  avoiding a bigger catastrophe.
• 23:54
  I,
• 23:54
  that one I did right.
• 23:55
  I feel good about my process there.
• 23:57
  A loss is OK
• 23:58
  if you if you follow your process.
• 24:00
  Louisiana,
• 24:01
  we did win with uh Letlow,
• 24:02
  yes,
• 24:03
  and Davis,
• 24:03
  no with large positions.
• 24:05
  New Hampshire,
• 24:05
  large positions on Sununu,
• 24:07
  no,
• 24:07
  and Pappas,
• 24:07
  yes,
• 24:08
  and also some margin markets we would hit as well.
• 24:11
  Pappas + 2,
• 24:11
  Pappas + 4,
• 24:12
  and Pappas plus 8.
• 24:14
  Going 5 and 0 there.
• 24:16
  Maine Senate,
• 24:17
  we did not,
• 24:18
  it was kind of a mix there.
• 24:19
  I had Collins,
• 24:20
  I,
• 24:21
  I
• 24:22
  got a little bit of a profit selling some of my Collins when it went up from 30 to 40.
• 24:26
  However,
• 24:27
  uh,
• 24:28
  I wound up with a loss overall on that contract,
• 24:31
  um,
• 24:31
  and,
• 24:31
  uh,
• 24:32
  uh,
• 24:32
  a separate contract on Jackson,
• 24:33
  uh,
• 24:34
  from earlier,
• 24:34
  we had to know,
• 24:35
  and a little bit of a loss.
• 24:36
  I did wind up going in in a large position late
• 24:39
  in that race to take advantage of the past few points,
• 24:41
  which ate away a lot of those losses.
• 24:44
  Uh,
• 24:44
  I'm OK with that.
• 24:45
  I,
• 24:45
  I,
• 24:45
  I think it was,
• 24:46
  I think there was value on Collins.
• 24:47
  I think she was a good value at 30 cents.
• 24:49
  I don't regret that purchase.
• 24:50
  Uh,
• 24:51
  we lost a little bit on that contract overall,
• 24:54
  but I,
• 24:54
  I I'm perfectly OK with that one.
• 24:56
  let's go to the next page.
• 24:57
  We've got Minnesota Senate,
• 24:58
  Flanagan,
• 24:59
  yes,
• 24:59
  Tafoya,
• 25:00
  no.
• 25:00
  This one got a little rocky here when you're talking about prediction markets.
• 25:03
  I was rooting for Tafoya.
• 25:04
  Uh,
• 25:05
  frankly,
• 25:05
  to win myself,
• 25:06
  but again,
• 25:07
  10th Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
• 25:08
  root for the world that you want,
• 25:10
  invest in the world that you have.
• 25:13
  And Minnesota in a blue year like this just didn't buy it.
• 25:16
  Uh,
• 25:16
  I just didn't think she'd be able to get over the hump.
• 25:18
  We hit both of those
• 25:20
  2-0 in Minnesota.
• 25:21
  Alaska,
• 25:22
  still everything open.
• 25:23
  Uh,
• 25:24
  most of those things hanging in the mid to high 80s right now.
• 25:27
  We will see how that plays out.
• 25:28
  I do expect Peltola to come through there,
• 25:32
  though not a sure thing.
• 25:33
  Um,
• 25:34
  that one was still up in the air.
• 25:35
  Oklahoma Senate hit both of those.
• 25:37
  Hearn,
• 25:37
  yes,
• 25:37
  Thomas,
• 25:38
  no,
• 25:39
  uh,
• 25:39
  2-0 in Oklahoma,
• 25:40
  Nebraska Senate.
• 25:41
  This was up in the air,
• 25:42
  and I,
• 25:42
  I was nervous about this one
• 25:44
  going into the night.
• 25:45
  We hung through with Ricketts.
• 25:47
  I,
• 25:47
  I thought he would pull it off.
• 25:48
  I'm not an Osborne fan.
• 25:50
  Uh,
• 25:50
  and,
• 25:51
  uh,
• 25:51
  Ricketts does hold on and win.
• 25:53
  One of the few bright spots,
• 25:55
  frankly,
• 25:55
  in the country for Republicans
• 25:57
  in Nebraska,
• 25:58
  go 2-0 there.
• 25:59
  Kansas.
• 26:00
  Um,
• 26:00
  I did have a large position on Hamilton though,
• 26:03
  which I lost,
• 26:04
  um,
• 26:05
  and Marshall,
• 26:06
  yes,
• 26:06
  it was a small position.
• 26:08
  0-2 in Kansas,
• 26:09
  would have preferred to probably sell out of that.
• 26:12
  It wasn't one of my bigger positions,
• 26:14
  so I didn't,
• 26:14
  I didn't wind up trading it actively last night.
• 26:18
  Probably should have been a little bit more aware of that when,
• 26:20
  when the Florida results came out,
• 26:21
  I should have been out of that,
• 26:22
  that,
• 26:22
  that state cause that,
• 26:23
  you know,
• 26:24
  that was the writing was on the wall at that point
• 26:26
  because Florida's margins were so much smaller
• 26:28
  than potentially could have been expected,
• 26:29
  but we'll take the loss there,
• 26:30
  it wasn't a huge one.
• 26:32
  Colorado Senate,
• 26:32
  uh,
• 26:33
  yes,
• 26:33
  on Hickenlooper,
• 26:34
  Noah Baisley,
• 26:35
  we hit both of those.
• 26:36
  West Virginia,
• 26:36
  Ey,
• 26:37
  Capito,
• 26:37
  yes.
• 26:38
  Fetty Anderson,
• 26:38
  no,
• 26:38
  no surprises there.
• 26:40
  OK,
• 26:40
  still going through the Senate,
• 26:41
  we have a few more.
• 26:42
  South Carolina Senate,
• 26:43
  um.
• 26:44
  This is misleading,
• 26:45
  I think with Graham.
• 26:45
  I do have 2 losses there.
• 26:47
  I had a 5,
• 26:47
  a very small position on a margin market from a long time ago,
• 26:51
  and I had an old position where I,
• 26:52
  I had already sold out of and lost a little bit on Graham,
• 26:55
  but I wanted out of that race.
• 26:56
  I got out of that race.
• 26:57
  I like the way I handled that race.
• 26:59
  I told you,
• 27:00
  uh,
• 27:00
  we were an instant sell
• 27:01
  when,
• 27:02
  when I saw that debate performance.
• 27:03
  I thought that was a big problem.
• 27:04
  I,
• 27:05
  I had that position.
• 27:05
  I got out of it then.
• 27:07
  And I'm totally fine with it.
• 27:08
  Um,
• 27:08
  Kentucky Senate,
• 27:09
  uh,
• 27:10
  we hit with Barr,
• 27:11
  yes,
• 27:11
  Booker,
• 27:12
  no.
• 27:13
  Uh,
• 27:13
  we also had a small position on Barr not winning by 18 points,
• 27:17
  uh,
• 27:17
  and,
• 27:18
  uh,
• 27:18
  we hit all four of those positions.
• 27:20
  Massachusetts Senator,
• 27:22
  Senate,
• 27:22
  obviously very easy there,
• 27:24
  2 and 0,
• 27:25
  but,
• 27:25
  you know,
• 27:25
  we took our 6,
• 27:26
  7% there and we were fine with it.
• 27:27
  Uh,
• 27:28
  no problem.
• 27:28
  Rhode Island Senate,
• 27:30
  uh,
• 27:31
  did pretty well here.
• 27:32
  I'm gonna hit some of these margin markets.
• 27:33
  Obviously hit the main races.
• 27:35
  Reed,
• 27:35
  yes,
• 27:35
  McKay,
• 27:36
  no.
• 27:36
  Um,
• 27:37
  when it comes to the margin markets,
• 27:38
  we had,
• 27:38
  did Reid win by 21+,
• 27:40
  uh,
• 27:41
  23+,
• 27:42
  uh,
• 27:42
  and 25+.
• 27:43
  We'll hit all three of those.
• 27:45
  The other three are a bit up in the air.
• 27:47
  I'm not sure where this will land.
• 27:49
  Somewhere between 27 and 33.
• 27:51
  My guess is I hit two out of those three,
• 27:53
  but those aren't resolved quite yet in Rhode Island.
• 27:56
  Uh,
• 27:56
  next up,
• 27:57
  we have New Jersey Senate race.
• 28:00
  Uh,
• 28:00
  hit that with Booker,
• 28:01
  yes,
• 28:02
  and then a bunch of over margin markets,
• 28:04
  11 + 1315,
• 28:07
  and 17,
• 28:07
  hit all four of those.
• 28:09
  In Michigan,
• 28:10
  we did go El Sayed medium position.
• 28:12
  I,
• 28:12
  I became more confident in that later on,
• 28:14
  didn't really add to it just because he's such a bad
• 28:17
  candidate and I wasn't fully confident he'd pull it off.
• 28:20
  But it's Michigan.
• 28:21
  It was a blue year.
• 28:23
  Really felt,
• 28:23
  uh,
• 28:24
  that he was gonna win.
• 28:24
  Merkley,
• 28:25
  easy win in
• 28:26
  Oregon.
• 28:27
  Alabama,
• 28:28
  we hit with,
• 28:28
  uh,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:29
  more,
• 28:30
  yes and no on West.
• 28:32
  Uh,
• 28:33
  North,
• 28:33
  uh,
• 28:33
  New Mexico,
• 28:34
  easy win with Lujan.
• 28:35
  Illinois,
• 28:36
  easy wins as well.
• 28:37
  Tracy,
• 28:37
  no.
• 28:38
  The margin markets,
• 28:39
  uh,
• 28:39
  and Stratton,
• 28:39
  yes.
• 28:40
  The margin markets for Stratton,
• 28:41
  we hit all three of those,
• 28:43
  her,
• 28:43
  uh,
• 28:44
  Stratton winning by 1113,
• 28:45
  and 15.
• 28:47
  Uh,
• 28:47
  and is that the end of the Senate?
• 28:49
  Uh,
• 28:49
  no,
• 28:49
  a couple more.
• 28:50
  Wyoming,
• 28:50
  we hit with Hageman,
• 28:51
  yes,
• 28:52
  um,
• 28:53
  easily.
• 28:54
  The question was this margin market,
• 28:55
  it's open right now.
• 28:56
  I had her winning by 32 points.
• 28:59
  Right now,
• 29:00
  it looks positive,
• 29:01
  but it's not resolved.
• 29:02
  We think we will win that one.
• 29:04
  Tennessee,
• 29:04
  uh,
• 29:05
  we won with Hagerty,
• 29:06
  yes,
• 29:06
  and,
• 29:06
  uh,
• 29:07
  Hagerty under 24 points.
• 29:09
  And then in the Virginia Senate,
• 29:11
  um,
• 29:11
  we,
• 29:11
  uh,
• 29:12
  that says Marker,
• 29:13
  I don't know what that is,
• 29:15
  Mark Warner,
• 29:15
  no.
• 29:16
  Do I have a
• 29:17
  Maybe I went in there with,
• 29:18
  I,
• 29:18
  I think I was playing around with a,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:20
  $0.1
• 29:22
  type of margin position there and lost a dollar,
• 29:24
  maybe on that Virginia Senate one.
• 29:25
  I don't even remember that.
• 29:26
  OK,
• 29:26
  so that's the Senate,
• 29:27
  lots of positions in the Senate.
• 29:29
  Um,
• 29:29
  I,
• 29:29
  do we have a summary on that next page?
• 29:31
  I think there's a summary on the next page,
• 29:32
  so we kind of see what we just looked at
• 29:34
  here in the Senate and then we'll take a break.
• 29:36
  Yeah,
• 29:36
  34 races,
• 29:37
  went 85 and 17
• 29:39
  with 9 open positions.
• 29:41
  Um,
• 29:43
  when by size is a good way of looking at this.
• 29:44
  We went 17.
• 29:45
  and 2 on our little tiny market,
• 29:47
  uh,
• 29:47
  marker positions,
• 29:48
  which is interesting.
• 29:49
  Usually those are the least reliable.
• 29:50
  Small positions,
• 29:51
  we went 22 and 7.
• 29:52
  Medium positions went 20 and 3.
• 29:55
  Large positions,
• 29:56
  22 and 5.
• 29:57
  I would like to do better than that on large positions.
• 29:59
  I'm a little disappointed in 22 and 5,
• 30:01
  honestly.
• 30:02
  On that one,
• 30:02
  and then all in positions 100%,
• 30:04
  we went
• 30:05
  4
• 30:05
  and 0.
• 30:06
  OK,
• 30:06
  that's the Senate.
• 30:06
  We have more in the,
• 30:07
  uh,
• 30:08
  governors and House
• 30:09
  and some other markets.
• 30:10
  We'll get into those.
• 30:11
  Coming up next,
• 30:12
  it's the day after the election,
• 30:13
  day after a dark day,
• 30:14
  if you,
• 30:14
  if you like Republicans,
• 30:16
  uh,
• 30:16
  you're probably celebrating like crazy
• 30:18
  if you've got,
• 30:19
  uh,
• 30:19
  you know,
• 30:19
  uh,
• 30:20
  the blue color on your mind.
• 30:22
  We'll get into a little bit more coming up next.
• 30:36
  It was a late night last night.
• 30:37
  We went through the elections with you,
• 30:39
  great live stream.
• 30:39
  So many of you were on it and we appreciate
• 30:41
  it going through every position that I took last night.
• 30:43
  And one of the reasons why I say it was a late night is because
• 30:46
  we could roll it over from time zone to time zone,
• 30:48
  get a couple of percent in a place like Hawaii.
• 30:51
  Let's go to the governor's races in Hawaii,
• 30:53
  we hit.
• 30:54
  Uh,
• 30:54
  both of those races they're no problem,
• 30:55
  2 and 0.
• 30:56
  Oregon was one of my biggest positions.
• 30:58
  I struggled with this one a lot.
• 30:59
  The polling was closer than I thought.
• 31:00
  stuck with my gut on this because of a Democratic year.
• 31:03
  Took Kottech,
• 31:04
  yes,
• 31:04
  Drazen no,
• 31:05
  a couple of margin markets hit all 44 and 0 there.
• 31:08
  Minnesota was another one we went big on with Klobuchar,
• 31:11
  really had never had a,
• 31:12
  a moment of doubt about that one.
• 31:14
  Uh,
• 31:14
  hit Klobuchar,
• 31:15
  yes,
• 31:15
  Demu,
• 31:15
  no,
• 31:16
  3 margin markets up to 11%,
• 31:18
  5-0 there.
• 31:19
  Oklahoma governor,
• 31:20
  uh,
• 31:20
  I like this one a lot.
• 31:21
  We got some good percentage on,
• 31:23
  you know,
• 31:23
  an Oklahoma race,
• 31:23
  you don't expect to get 12 to 15%.
• 31:25
  We hit it here with Maisie
• 31:27
  and Munson,
• 31:28
  no,
• 31:28
  2-0 there.
• 31:29
  New York governor.
• 31:30
  Uh,
• 31:30
  Hoka,
• 31:30
  we bought early.
• 31:31
  She had some controversies who got her around 91 and 92%.
• 31:36
  Uh,
• 31:36
  so,
• 31:37
  a really nice little free money in New York,
• 31:39
  uh,
• 31:39
  2-0 there.
• 31:41
  Uh,
• 31:41
  more governor's races for you.
• 31:42
  Texas,
• 31:43
  a disaster.
• 31:44
  Uh,
• 31:44
  it's probably my most frustrating one of the entire time.
• 31:47
  Why?
• 31:48
  Because first of all,
• 31:48
  it affects my state and I'm very disappointed in the result.
• 31:50
  Number 2,
• 31:51
  I should have sold out of this one.
• 31:53
  I told you I was gonna trim it.
• 31:54
  I did trim it and then I added back into it.
• 31:56
  I was all over the place on this.
• 31:58
  Probably my biggest mistake of the night.
• 32:00
  Uh,
• 32:00
  I should have just gotten out of this.
• 32:01
  I should have hedged my life with it.
• 32:03
  Uh,
• 32:03
  a 100 mistakes I could give you about this one,
• 32:06
  and I'm annoyed at myself for it,
• 32:07
  but I did lose when 0 and 4 in Texas.
• 32:10
  I just really felt,
• 32:11
  I thought Tallarico would win,
• 32:13
  but I thought Abbott would hold it in a close race.
• 32:15
  He did not.
• 32:16
  Uh,
• 32:16
  the numbers kept driving,
• 32:18
  just kept dropping,
• 32:18
  and I just couldn't believe it,
• 32:20
  but here we are.
• 32:21
  And it actually,
• 32:21
  it wasn't even that close.
• 32:22
  So.
• 32:22
  Big mistake there.
• 32:23
  Um,
• 32:24
  Arizona Governor Biggs,
• 32:25
  uh,
• 32:25
  no,
• 32:26
  Hobbs,
• 32:26
  yes,
• 32:27
  and we took margin markets up to 5% on Hobbs,
• 32:29
  hit all 4 there.
• 32:30
  Florida governor was a big position,
• 32:32
  had large positions on Jolly no and Donald's yes.
• 32:35
  Got a little shaky there.
• 32:36
  That was a lot closer
• 32:37
  than I was hoping.
• 32:38
  I thought he might win by 3 or 4.
• 32:40
  It was,
• 32:40
  I mean,
• 32:41
  it was about what we thought.
• 32:42
  But I was nervous about it as it was happening.
• 32:44
  I was wondering,
• 32:45
  should I bail on this?
• 32:45
  I did not.
• 32:46
  We held out to the end,
• 32:47
  hit both of those 2 and 0.
• 32:48
  Nebraska,
• 32:49
  another one that looked,
• 32:50
  uh,
• 32:50
  we did a candidate of the day,
• 32:51
  was one of our last candidates today.
• 32:53
  Pil and,
• 32:53
  yes,
• 32:53
  Walls,
• 32:54
  no.
• 32:54
  Hit both of those for 2 and 0.
• 32:56
  New Mexico Governor Hall,
• 32:57
  no.
• 32:58
  Hale,
• 32:58
  yes,
• 32:58
  2-0 there.
• 33:00
  Uh,
• 33:00
  anymore,
• 33:00
  let's see,
• 33:01
  California,
• 33:01
  yes,
• 33:01
  we hit with Becerra,
• 33:02
  yes,
• 33:03
  uh,
• 33:03
  Hilton,
• 33:03
  no,
• 33:03
  a couple of times,
• 33:05
  uh,
• 33:05
  no surprises there.
• 33:06
  Alabama,
• 33:07
  not ever surprised either.
• 33:08
  Tuberville,
• 33:09
  yes.
• 33:09
  Jones,
• 33:10
  no.
• 33:10
  Maryland Governor Cox,
• 33:12
  no,
• 33:12
  and more,
• 33:12
  yes.
• 33:13
  These are all,
• 33:13
  some of these are real easy.
• 33:14
  Wisconsin,
• 33:15
  we had a nice profit on Crowley,
• 33:16
  yes.
• 33:17
  Uh,
• 33:18
  Tiffany,
• 33:18
  no,
• 33:18
  and Crowley in a margin market of 4 points,
• 33:21
  hit all three of those.
• 33:23
  South Dakota governor,
• 33:24
  we hit Rhoden,
• 33:24
  yes,
• 33:25
  and Allers,
• 33:26
  no.
• 33:27
  Uh,
• 33:27
  Maine governor,
• 33:28
  uh,
• 33:28
  hit Pingree yes,
• 33:29
  and Charles,
• 33:30
  no,
• 33:30
  all green on that page
• 33:32
  of our chart.
• 33:33
  Next up,
• 33:33
  Pennsylvania went with,
• 33:34
  uh,
• 33:35
  Garrity,
• 33:35
  no,
• 33:35
  and Shapiro with a 10 point margin.
• 33:37
  I probably should have been way more aggressive on the margin markets with Shapiro,
• 33:40
  but we hit,
• 33:41
  uh,
• 33:41
  those.
• 33:42
  Tennessee,
• 33:42
  uh,
• 33:42
  2-0 in Tennessee.
• 33:44
  Blackburn was a little shaky for a while,
• 33:46
  but we hit that.
• 33:47
  Rhode Island,
• 33:47
  3-0 there,
• 33:48
  Wyoming,
• 33:49
  2-0,
• 33:50
  Massachusetts,
• 33:51
  2-0.
• 33:52
  Uh,
• 33:52
  Michigan,
• 33:53
  3-0.
• 33:54
  Uh,
• 33:55
  Nevada was one.
• 33:55
  I actually got a,
• 33:56
  I bought that in the 50s,
• 33:57
  really nice profit percentage there,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 34:00
  more than doubled our money with Ford,
• 34:01
  yes,
• 34:02
  in Nevada,
• 34:03
  uh as well.
• 34:04
  OK.
• 34:04
  Next up,
• 34:04
  Colorado,
• 34:05
  2-0,
• 34:06
  uh,
• 34:06
  Connecticut,
• 34:07
  2-0.
• 34:08
  Iowa,
• 34:08
  we did have a very,
• 34:09
  uh,
• 34:10
  I guess it was a medium position,
• 34:11
  but it was not a huge one.
• 34:12
  Um,
• 34:13
  uh,
• 34:13
  Lane,
• 34:14
  uh,
• 34:14
  we had a yes,
• 34:15
  uh,
• 34:15
  from months and months ago.
• 34:17
  Never really exited that position even though it
• 34:19
  didn't seem like it was gonna come through.
• 34:20
  South Carolina governor,
• 34:21
  we hit those 2-0.
• 34:23
  Uh,
• 34:23
  Illinois margin market with Pritzker winning by 12,
• 34:26
  hit that.
• 34:27
  Uh,
• 34:27
  Jane was a long shot.
• 34:28
  Uh,
• 34:29
  I had Jane in the 20s to win that race.
• 34:31
  Thought there was a chance.
• 34:32
  It was close for a while.
• 34:33
  Uh,
• 34:33
  Phil Scott hangs on there.
• 34:35
  However,
• 34:35
  Arkansas governor,
• 34:36
  we go 2-0.
• 34:38
  Alaska governor hit that one with Christ Tompkins.
• 34:41
  Uh,
• 34:42
  Ohio Governor Ramaswamy had an old position on him,
• 34:45
  very small,
• 34:46
  uh,
• 34:46
  did not win that one.
• 34:48
  Idaho governor 2 and 0,
• 34:50
  New Hampshire governor,
• 34:51
  again,
• 34:51
  same thing as Jane.
• 34:52
  We had a very small position on a flyer at like 5 cents on Warmington.
• 34:56
  Um,
• 34:57
  did not hit that one.
• 34:58
  Those are our governor's races.
• 34:59
  A little quick summary of those races.
• 35:01
  We were 34 races,
• 35:02
  66 and 8
• 35:04
  overall.
• 35:05
  Uh,
• 35:05
  in our large,
• 35:06
  all-in positions,
• 35:07
  we were 2-0,
• 35:08
  large,
• 35:08
  we were 21-2,
• 35:10
  mediums,
• 35:10
  we were 22-1.
• 35:11
  So this is,
• 35:12
  this is how I want these percentages to look.
• 35:13
  67.
• 35:14
  85,
• 35:15
  96,
• 35:15
  91,
• 35:16
  and 100.
• 35:17
  Perfect.
• 35:17
  Uh,
• 35:17
  happy with all those governor's races except for the Texas one,
• 35:20
  which I wanna punch myself for.
• 35:21
  OK.
• 35:22
  Next up,
• 35:22
  we have the House,
• 35:23
  not too much here.
• 35:24
  Um,
• 35:24
  I just we'll blow through these quickly.
• 35:26
  You know,
• 35:27
  Elon Omar,
• 35:28
  the Bennett Keene one was when I talked about a lot and we did well
• 35:31
  with that one.
• 35:32
  Uh,
• 35:32
  these are all wins.
• 35:33
  We hit all of these,
• 35:34
  they're all small positions.
• 35:35
  They were all leaning Democrats,
• 35:37
  um,
• 35:38
  just,
• 35:38
  you know,
• 35:38
  looking,
• 35:39
  playing the wave.
• 35:40
  Hit all these,
• 35:40
  uh,
• 35:41
  our summary for the House.
• 35:42
  Uh,
• 35:43
  I don't think there's,
• 35:44
  there's a couple more.
• 35:44
  We did hit,
• 35:45
  miss a few here.
• 35:46
  They were,
• 35:46
  I think,
• 35:47
  stretch races
• 35:48
  for Democrats,
• 35:50
  um,
• 35:50
  just to see how far the wave would go.
• 35:52
  They actually didn't get everything.
• 35:53
  There's one race,
• 35:54
  Arizona 02,
• 35:55
  we still are holding open.
• 35:57
  Summary though of the House races as follows.
• 36:00
  16 races,
• 36:01
  we were 12 and 4.
• 36:02
  nothing over a medium though,
• 36:04
  uh,
• 36:04
  really didn't play the house at all that closely.
• 36:06
  Couple more sections here for you.
• 36:07
  Um,
• 36:08
  next up is national markets.
• 36:10
  Blue wave,
• 36:11
  which was Democrats winning the House and getting to 49 seats.
• 36:13
  This is a big position I took.
• 36:15
  I kept adding and adding and adding and adding and adding to this one.
• 36:17
  A big profit for us there.
• 36:19
  Uh,
• 36:19
  we hit with the blue wave.
• 36:21
  House control,
• 36:21
  got those right,
• 36:22
  Republican,
• 36:23
  no Democrat,
• 36:23
  yes.
• 36:24
  Uh,
• 36:24
  red wave,
• 36:25
  we got that,
• 36:25
  that did not happen,
• 36:26
  uh,
• 36:27
  large position on that.
• 36:28
  The blue tsunami.
• 36:30
  We hit that one.
• 36:31
  I gotta say,
• 36:31
  I did not think I was gonna hit the damn mega tsunami.
• 36:34
  I bought that at about 30 cents.
• 36:36
  We tripled our money on that.
• 36:38
  I don't feel happy about it,
• 36:39
  but I'm,
• 36:39
  I'm,
• 36:40
  I'm getting paid for my pain.
• 36:42
  Old position on Senate's,
• 36:43
  uh,
• 36:44
  control for Republicans,
• 36:44
  we did lose.
• 36:46
  Uh,
• 36:46
  balance of power though,
• 36:47
  hit 2 or 3 there.
• 36:48
  Closest Senate race hit all 4 of those positions.
• 36:51
  The closest Senate,
• 36:51
  by the way,
• 36:51
  the answer to that one's gonna be Mississippi,
• 36:53
  which is bizarre.
• 36:55
  Uh,
• 36:55
  national markets,
• 36:56
  a few more.
• 36:57
  Did the,
• 36:58
  this is a Democrat worry thing.
• 36:59
  Will the midterms happen,
• 37:01
  you know,
• 37:01
  typical,
• 37:02
  uh,
• 37:03
  resistance nonsense,
• 37:04
  uh,
• 37:04
  of course they happened on time.
• 37:05
  We hit that.
• 37:06
  Uh,
• 37:07
  a couple of other things,
• 37:07
  there's a Trump bull case,
• 37:09
  uh,
• 37:09
  didn't come through.
• 37:10
  Some other various things that in small positions,
• 37:13
  nothing really worth mentioning.
• 37:14
  Our summary,
• 37:15
  I think,
• 37:15
  is next on this one.
• 37:17
  We went 17 and 4,
• 37:18
  hit all of our positions large and above.
• 37:21
  Uh,
• 37:21
  very happy with that outcome.
• 37:22
  OK.
• 37:23
  Next up,
• 37:23
  other markets.
• 37:24
  Bernie Sanders,
• 37:25
  my favorite market of this entire thing.
• 37:26
  This was free money.
• 37:27
  I kept adding to everything I could find.
• 37:29
  Will Bernie Sanders endorse Tallarico,
• 37:31
  Osborne,
• 37:32
  Tur,
• 37:32
  Peltola,
• 37:33
  or Hinojosa?
• 37:34
  Question,
• 37:34
  answer to that was obviously no,
• 37:36
  because they were presenting themselves as moderates.
• 37:38
  They don't want a Bernie Sanders endorsement.
• 37:41
  We went 5 for 5
• 37:42
  on that
• 37:43
  hit our LA mayor,
• 37:44
  um,
• 37:45
  positions,
• 37:45
  and I,
• 37:46
  and that was,
• 37:46
  that was our big winners for us.
• 37:48
  Because
• 37:48
  Ramon,
• 37:49
  we took in the,
• 37:50
  I think the low 50s,
• 37:52
  um,
• 37:52
  and so did very well with that.
• 37:54
  Ramon,
• 37:54
  yes,
• 37:54
  Bass,
• 37:55
  no.
• 37:55
  Um,
• 37:56
  won an Iowa governor Senate uh combo.
• 38:00
  Um,
• 38:01
  we won in Nevada with the Secretary of State race.
• 38:04
  Don Bacon resigns early.
• 38:05
  I don't even remember making that one.
• 38:07
  Alaska,
• 38:08
  uh,
• 38:08
  ballot measure two is interesting.
• 38:10
  I think we're gonna hit that one.
• 38:11
  That one is basically,
• 38:12
  are they gonna overturn ranked choice voting?
• 38:14
  And I thought,
• 38:15
  I thought that would be an interesting
• 38:16
  way for Alaska voters to handle that,
• 38:19
  to say to themselves,
• 38:20
  hey,
• 38:21
  you know,
• 38:22
  we don't like what happened here with Peltola,
• 38:24
  uh,
• 38:24
  and her putting in a fake Dan Sullivan.
• 38:27
  This is being gamed the system,
• 38:29
  let's get rid of it.
• 38:30
  Uh,
• 38:30
  that was kind of an underdog position.
• 38:32
  I felt good about it.
• 38:33
  I didn't put a ton on it,
• 38:35
  unfortunately,
• 38:35
  but it looks like it's gonna hit.
• 38:37
  Um,
• 38:37
  there wasn't a lot of,
• 38:38
  um,
• 38:39
  uh,
• 38:39
  liquidity in that market,
• 38:40
  so I couldn't really go too big on it.
• 38:42
  OK,
• 38:42
  uh,
• 38:42
  is that all there or do we have another page of that?
• 38:44
  Uh,
• 38:44
  yeah,
• 38:44
  here we go.
• 38:45
  This is the summary.
• 38:46
  Props,
• 38:46
  combos,
• 38:47
  and down ballot races 11 and 1
• 38:49
  with 1 open.
• 38:50
  We hit everything in small,
• 38:52
  medium,
• 38:52
  and large categories,
• 38:53
  uh,
• 38:53
  in that,
• 38:54
  uh,
• 38:54
  conference.
• 38:55
  Uh,
• 38:55
  anything else left here,
• 38:56
  Adam,
• 38:56
  as far as,
• 38:57
  uh,
• 38:57
  this goes?
• 38:57
  Here's the overall,
• 38:59
  overall for election night.
• 39:00
  Here we go.
• 39:01
  Uh,
• 39:01
  marker size positions.
• 39:02
  This is our smallest size positions.
• 39:03
  We went 36 and 11,
• 39:05
  77% success.
• 39:07
  Um,
• 39:07
  for small positions,
• 39:08
  we went 51 and 10,
• 39:10
  84% success.
• 39:11
  Medium positions,
• 39:12
  we went 8,
• 39:13
  uh,
• 39:13
  49 and 6,
• 39:14
  89%.
• 39:16
  Large positions,
• 39:17
  we went 48 and 7
• 39:19
  for 87% success rate,
• 39:21
  and all in we were 7 and 0.
• 39:23
  Uh,
• 39:24
  just to break it down another way,
• 39:25
  in the Senate,
• 39:26
  we went 8,
• 39:26
  83% of our Senate,
• 39:28
  uh,
• 39:28
  positions,
• 39:29
  89% of our governor's positions,
• 39:31
  75% in the House,
• 39:32
  81% on national markets,
• 39:34
  and other markets we hit 92% of.
• 39:37
  Overall,
• 39:38
  191 and 34,
• 39:40
  uh,
• 39:41
  85% success rate.
• 39:42
  I'm happy with that number.
• 39:43
  I mean,
• 39:44
  the one thing I probably,
• 39:45
  uh,
• 39:46
  look,
• 39:46
  it was two big mistakes for me.
• 39:48
  Uh,
• 39:48
  the two that I really look at and I'm really frustrated about were Hinson
• 39:51
  in Iowa,
• 39:52
  which I stuck with too long.
• 39:53
  I fell in love with my own trade.
• 39:54
  I really wanted it to happen.
• 39:55
  I really wanted it to work,
• 39:57
  and it didn't work.
• 39:58
  Number 2,
• 39:59
  Abbott,
• 39:59
  for 100 reasons,
• 40:00
  I should have sold out of that one.
• 40:02
  And
• 40:03
  those two,
• 40:03
  I mean,
• 40:04
  I look,
• 40:04
  I'm talking about,
• 40:04
  I,
• 40:05
  you know,
• 40:05
  I hit 85% of my positions.
• 40:06
  I went 1991 and 34,
• 40:09
  and I'm obsessing about two races that I
• 40:11
  blew.
• 40:12
  Um,
• 40:13
  and,
• 40:13
  you know,
• 40:13
  I like to think,
• 40:14
  I'd like to think.
• 40:16
  And I think this is true.
• 40:17
  I think I would have minimized the damages of this
• 40:20
  if I wasn't trying to stream while trading.
• 40:22
  I do feel like I got,
• 40:23
  I,
• 40:24
  I got a little distracted at times and I let a couple of things go.
• 40:27
  Um,
• 40:28
  it was worth it.
• 40:29
  I like hanging out with you guys and doing that stuff,
• 40:31
  so I'm fine with it.
• 40:32
  It's an acceptable loss in my stupid world right now.
• 40:35
  Um,
• 40:36
  but I'm frustrated at myself because there were lessons that I knew.
• 40:38
  We came on on panic day and I said,
• 40:40
  here's what I need to do.
• 40:41
  I need to trim these,
• 40:43
  I think there were 4 positions that I said trim.
• 40:45
  Um,
• 40:45
  Kottech,
• 40:46
  uh,
• 40:47
  in,
• 40:47
  in Oregon,
• 40:48
  I was nervous about.
• 40:49
  I did trim it,
• 40:49
  but not that much,
• 40:50
  and I'm glad I didn't go too far.
• 40:52
  Uh,
• 40:52
  Cindy Hyde-Smith,
• 40:53
  I needed to trim that.
• 40:54
  I was not comfortable with it.
• 40:55
  I didn't like it.
• 40:56
  Um,
• 40:57
  I got rid of that one.
• 40:58
  I,
• 40:58
  I think I just sold about half of it,
• 40:59
  and I was happy the way they handled it.
• 41:00
  The other two that I said
• 41:02
  were Abbott and Henson.
• 41:03
  I needed to,
• 41:04
  to trim myself there.
• 41:05
  I did a little bit,
• 41:06
  but not enough.
• 41:07
  And I was not aggressive on the night.
• 41:09
  When I realized what the tone of that night was,
• 41:10
  when I realized what the climate of that night was,
• 41:12
  I wouldn't let myself believe it was gonna go against me.
• 41:15
  And I,
• 41:16
  uh,
• 41:17
  in those two races,
• 41:19
  um,
• 41:20
  I just didn't use them,
• 41:21
  I did not execute logically like I should have.
• 41:24
  I should have bailed from those for a 20% loss or a 30% loss and been happy with it,
• 41:29
  and I would have been happy with it.
• 41:30
  And if I had done that,
• 41:32
  my night would have been spectacular instead of just frankly,
• 41:34
  pretty good.
• 41:35
  Um,
• 41:36
  I'm happy with the results.
• 41:37
  I'm happy with the election season overall.
• 41:39
  We did very well here at Predictable from the,
• 41:42
  uh,
• 41:42
  primary season on through the elections.
• 41:45
  And,
• 41:46
  you know,
• 41:46
  I hear people talking about like,
• 41:47
  you know,
• 41:47
  the prediction markets in a negative way,
• 41:49
  you know,
• 41:49
  uh,
• 41:50
  oh gosh,
• 41:50
  well,
• 41:50
  you're getting something for nothing.
• 41:52
  You're going on there and you're just making these crazy wagers.
• 41:54
  Look,
• 41:55
  I spent a lot of time on this.
• 41:56
  We spent thousands of hours as a team putting these,
• 41:59
  these positions together for you.
• 42:00
  I hope
• 42:01
  they help make your election season profitable and,
• 42:03
  and
• 42:03
  And maybe soothe a little bit of the pain of an
• 42:06
  evening if that's not the way you wanted it to go.
• 42:08
  All right,
• 42:08
  PredictableShow.com,
• 42:09
  if you wanna be part of that group,
• 42:10
  you wanna get those picks early,
• 42:11
  you wanna do this in advance,
• 42:13
  that's the best way to do it.
• 42:14
  It's better than me reading them afterwards,
• 42:15
  I'll tell you that.
• 42:16
  PredictableShow.com,
• 42:17
  become a premium subscriber.
• 42:18
  Back in a second.
• 42:28
  Most likely outcome is
• 42:30
  56 seats in the Senate for Democrats,
• 42:33
  probably 250+ in the House,
• 42:35
  just an absolute disaster for Republicans.
• 42:37
  Uh,
• 42:38
  there are two states still outstanding in the Senate though.
• 42:40
  I just wanna bring you through where we are right now
• 42:42
  on those.
• 42:43
  Let's go to Mississippi,
• 42:44
  where the,
• 42:45
  the closest race in the entire Senate.
• 42:47
  Cindy Hyde-Smith,
• 42:47
  does look like she's going to lose to Scott Colom.
• 42:50
  This is a race we brought attention to
• 42:52
  throughout the,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:53
  election period.
• 42:54
  They're currently tied at 48.9% each,
• 42:57
  about what,
• 42:57
  60 votes.
• 42:58
  Separates them.
• 42:59
  The understanding of those votes though is they will lean Colom,
• 43:04
  so he is likely to hang on to that race
• 43:07
  in Alaska,
• 43:08
  still about a quarter of the vote to count.
• 43:10
  Peltola leads by about 0.3%.
• 43:14
  Of course,
• 43:15
  you still have the ranked choice aspect to play out here,
• 43:18
  and it'll be multiple weeks
• 43:19
  of votes coming in still in Alaska with their system.
• 43:22
  So
• 43:23
  a lot of votes to come.
• 43:24
  Peltola,
• 43:25
  the heavy favorite there,
• 43:26
  but nothing decided.
• 43:27
  As of yet.
• 43:28
  Um,
• 43:29
  that's all the time that we have today.
• 43:30
  Hopefully,
• 43:30
  you had a good election season,
• 43:32
  at least on the prediction markets.
• 43:34
  Maybe you didn't get what you wanted politically,
• 43:35
  but maybe you got a little bit of,
• 43:37
  uh,
• 43:37
  profit
• 43:38
  to pay
• 43:39
  you for your pain.
• 43:41
  Uh,
• 43:41
  sometimes you just have to hedge your life and just
• 43:44
  Take the bumps and move on and,
• 43:46
  and look
• 43:47
  and be positive.
• 43:48
  Things turn around really,
• 43:49
  really quickly.
• 43:49
  So predictableShow.com,
• 43:51
  join us there.
• 43:51
  We'll talk to you soon.