Latest / Simply Bitcoin / What JUST Happened CONFIRMED Bitcoin is about to EXPLODE!! | EP 1410
Transcript
- 0:01It's official, Bitcoin has just entered a new era and I think
- 0:07most people are about to get caught off sides.
- 0:09In 2026. It looks like retail is panic
- 0:12selling, whales are panic buying, and it's all because
- 0:16Bitcoin just did something it's never done before.
- 0:20So let's dive into all the different narratives playing out
- 0:23right now. It's been an interesting start
- 0:26of the year. We are we are officially bullish
- 0:28pumping every single day of 2026, which isn't saying much.
- 0:32It's it's just the second day. But hey, hey, you know, forgive
- 0:36me for for getting bullish today.
- 0:38Anyways, let's start with where a lot of people are talking.
- 0:41There is a little bit of contention on this official or
- 0:44first story here. There's been this kind of recent
- 0:48trend, this recent conversation around whales buying Bitcoin.
- 0:53It does seem like retail and not just the, you know, the bit
- 0:57corners have been around for a while, but as they were dubbed,
- 0:59the tourists have been selling. There's literally been no one
- 1:02but bitcoiners in the Bitcoin space.
- 1:05I think in 2025, basically what I'm saying is that if you've
- 1:09been a bitcoiner for more than a few years, you're probably the
- 1:12only one buying Bitcoin at this point.
- 1:13Everyone else is either completely out of the market or
- 1:16they just have no money. But this recent trend, which I
- 1:20think is some contention, but there's there's kind of these
- 1:23tweets going around. They could just be for
- 1:25engagement farming. But essentially the idea is that
- 1:28Wales, usually people with about 1000 Bitcoin or more are
- 1:32accumulating Bitcoin, which is making everyone feel a little
- 1:34bullish. So first one here is 1000 K
- 1:37Bitcoin balance has changed. You can see it's starting to go
- 1:40up. The second one is something very
- 1:42similar. The realized cap for New Wales,
- 1:44it's going parabolic. Now where it starts to get a
- 1:47little interesting here is when someone else kind of delve into
- 1:51the data here and, you know, you could argue that this is kind of
- 1:54bearish. Maybe you can say, oh, this is
- 1:56just engagement baiting on Twitter.
- 1:58But here is I think what probably is going on here.
- 2:02And essentially, I don't know if you could say it was fully
- 2:05debunked, but someone looked into the numbers and they're
- 2:07like, look, all these whale charts right now are essentially
- 2:11the exchange is consolidating. And if you eliminate the
- 2:15exchanges consolidating, then it looks like on net everyone is
- 2:19still selling Bitcoin. There's still more sellers than
- 2:21buyers currently in the market. And I think it's very easy to
- 2:24kind of talk about this because as I've been saying, the only
- 2:28people on Bitcoin are people that have been in Bitcoin for a
- 2:31long time. And if you're in Bitcoin
- 2:33recently, if you're a big kind of, you know, deep pocket
- 2:37person, then, you know, you might be scared.
- 2:40I don't know if you guys are watching the ETF inflows, but
- 2:43the ETF inflows are hurting right now.
- 2:45I think they dropped about 420 million in the last couple of
- 2:48weeks. So hey, retail coming through
- 2:50the ETFs, they're not they're not so happy right now.
- 2:53And as everyone knows, we finally ended the year on a red
- 2:57year. But before I get into all that,
- 3:00I think this is pretty interesting.
- 3:02The Bitcoin long term holders, which I think is super bullish,
- 3:05has finally flipped positive. So if you bought Bitcoin in the
- 3:08last 155 days and you held it for that time, then the long
- 3:12term holder statistics are showing us, hey, we have some
- 3:15new people building conviction, some new people buying Bitcoin
- 3:18at these prices and starting to feel bullish.
- 3:21Now I've been bullish for a little bit here on the show.
- 3:24I I think I'm the last bitcoiner that has been bullish left on
- 3:27YouTube. Even my partner who's not here
- 3:30today, it has been extremely bearish on me and it's it's
- 3:34literally been it's been low key wearing on my soul here every
- 3:38single day. Guys, it's been rough, I'm not
- 3:40going to lie. But what is interesting and I
- 3:42have been telling you guys that you got to watch what's going on
- 3:45in the leverage in the leverage of Bitcoin is where I think the
- 3:50game is being played out. And as you can see here, you
- 3:53know, here's the Binance liquidation maps.
- 3:55There is there's some some shorts or some longs down here
- 3:58in around the 88 K range. Not much going on up here in the
- 4:03shorting range. There's been about 100 and
- 4:07something million. I have the official number here
- 4:10for you guys, 115,000,000 Bitcoin shorts being liquidated
- 4:14in the last couple of hours rather the last day.
- 4:17And I think this is where the signal is really happening right
- 4:21now. So we are above 90K currently as
- 4:24the show's going on. And I think what is interesting
- 4:27is we've seen hundreds of millions of dollars on Bitcoin
- 4:32shorts being liquidated right now and we just popped up above
- 4:3790K. And it makes you wonder is there
- 4:41a silent buyer currently in the market because there is a lot of
- 4:45leverage short kind of pressure right now.
- 4:48But someone is scooping this all up.
- 4:50And I don't know if you guys watched the price action this
- 4:52morning, but some bullish developments have happened.
- 4:55Let me let me pull this up real quick shouts out to my boy
- 4:59Ansel. He's got his own Bitcoin show.
- 5:01He does great work. He is noting and I think anyone
- 5:05that's kind of a little bit of ATA chart boy is starting to see
- 5:09some some bullish reversals right now.
- 5:11You can see he's got a a trend line here on the day, but we
- 5:14have officially officially made it over the 50 day moving
- 5:19average. Now obviously TA is is you know
- 5:23astrology for men. So I, I don't know if we can
- 5:27really lay our hats on this, but we are starting to see kind of a
- 5:30bullish reversal on Bitcoin. We have made it over the 50 day
- 5:33moving average. We are bubbling UP90K around
- 5:37right now. So in the face of all the
- 5:39leverage shorts that we're seeing, we're seeing Bitcoin
- 5:43pump in the face of that, which makes me believe or rather makes
- 5:47me kind of speculate that there is a buyer in the market, a big
- 5:52buyer in the market right now that wants to scoop up this
- 5:54Bitcoin under 90K, which is kind of what I've been telling you
- 5:57guys for the last couple of weeks now.
- 5:59Obviously, I was on one hand speculating, on the other hand
- 6:04kind of just making my case for where we are currently and it's
- 6:08been holding up very well. I told you guys months ago and
- 6:11we dumped under the, you know, 80K or dumped down to the 80 K
- 6:15range that I believe the Bitcoin price is most likely going to go
- 6:19sideways here. That we're going to go sideways
- 6:21for a couple of months. And then once the accumulation
- 6:24happens, once the buyers or rather the sellers get tired and
- 6:28the buyers get back into position, which is kind of where
- 6:31we are right now, you we'll start to see the Bitcoin price
- 6:34get frothy and move upwards. Now, obviously, if you're
- 6:37watching the price this morning, I did pull up the one minute
- 6:40chart this morning, I was watching the one minute chart.
- 6:42So shouts out to you guys that love the one minute chart bit.
- 6:45Now it was very interesting to watch what happens around that
- 6:4990K range. The bears really didn't want
- 6:51Bitcoin to go above 90K though. We kind of we broke through that
- 6:55a little bit. So it's going to be very
- 6:57interesting to see if we continue the run where we are
- 7:00and we start heading upwards, which is going to be essentially
- 7:04a a bullish reversal here. Doing exactly what I said I was
- 7:07going to do. It dumped down to 80 K.
- 7:09It goes sideways and then it starts going up, though I don't
- 7:12think that's telling us the whole picture here.
- 7:15Obviously we all saw what happened in 2025.
- 7:19It wasn't the year we all thought it was going to be.
- 7:21In fact, it fundamentally, in my opinion, broke the four year
- 7:25cycle. It's over.
- 7:28Yes, you could look at what happened with Bitcoin in terms
- 7:31of when the halving date was it did kind of top at exactly when
- 7:36we all expected it to roughly 18 months after the halving and
- 7:39then it did go down to essentially like a 30%
- 7:42correction. But officially the four year
- 7:45cycle is broken. It is over.
- 7:48We can no longer lay our hats on the meme of three green years,
- 7:52one red. It's officially done.
- 7:54So our four year cycle Maxis AKA Nico, look, you're going to have
- 8:00to readjust your narrative because the four year cycle meme
- 8:03is officially done. And I made the case that it was
- 8:06changing throughout the year. We got a all time high before
- 8:09the halving. We didn't get a parabolic year,
- 8:12you know, 18 months after the halving and then we didn't get
- 8:15the three green, one red meme. It's officially over.
- 8:18In my opinion though. Does that mean Bitcoin can't go
- 8:21down next year? Obviously no one knows what's
- 8:24going on. We are literally in uncharted
- 8:26waters. I believe we are in a new era of
- 8:29Bitcoin ever since Larry Fink came into Bitcoin.
- 8:32Ever since the institutions and Wall Street's came into Bitcoin,
- 8:35it has officially changed the trajectory of Bitcoin.
- 8:38This is a is a brand new era in my opinion.
- 8:41Everything we knew about Bitcoin no longer holds like it used to.
- 8:46We used to know exactly what the Bitcoin price was going to do.
- 8:49Now moving forward, we're going to have to kind of adjust our
- 8:52narratives and just how we view Bitcoin, adjust where we think
- 8:55the Bitcoin price is going. But in my opinion, again, this
- 8:59is all my opinion, not financial advice.
- 9:01I'm just a YouTube. I'm just a guy that looks at
- 9:03Bitcoin. I think 2026 is going to be a
- 9:06great year anyway. Simon Dixon tweets, he goes RIP
- 9:09the Bitcoin four year cycle. It was fun.
- 9:12Now we have to part in 2026. We enter a new era.
- 9:16Remember, only Bitcoin in self custody is real Bitcoin, which I
- 9:21fully endorse this message. I've been saying this for the
- 9:25last three to six months. The only thing that matters is
- 9:28are you acquiring more Bitcoin and are you taking that Bitcoin
- 9:31into self custody? Yes, I love the idea of my
- 9:35purchasing power going up, but in reality, what really matters
- 9:40is are you holding that Bitcoin? We all like to feel like we're a
- 9:43little more wealthier than we were, you know, last year.
- 9:46And in some in some cases you could argue that that isn't cat
- 9:50in in fact, what happened this year, though, we didn't really
- 9:54see a parabolic bull run. You know, we didn't see the
- 9:56price action we really wanted. But if you're looking at the
- 9:59Bitcoin yearly lows, we're still above what we were last year or
- 10:03in 2024. And here you can see bitcoins
- 10:06pretty much every year has gone up on the yearly low except for
- 10:10one year IN2016366-IN2017788IN 2018 3185 in 20/20/2020 nineteen
- 10:203.3 K 2024.9202129 K 202215K23162439 and then last
- 10:31year the bottom was 76 K. So if you zoom out, the Bitcoin
- 10:36thesis still holds up up and to the right.
- 10:39The best store of value, the best performing asset over the
- 10:43last 15-16 years. And you know very fittingly,
- 10:48tomorrow is Bitcoins birthday, January 3rd.
- 10:51So we are officially entering the 17th year of Bitcoin and
- 10:57last year I think everything changed.
- 10:59Like I'm saying the institutions have fundamentally changed the
- 11:01course of Bitcoin up to this point, for better or worse.
- 11:04That's just, that's just what happened.
- 11:06You know, I, I, I think looking forward into what happens in
- 11:102026 and 2027 is going to be exactly what I've been saying
- 11:14for the last couple of months. I've been broken record at this
- 11:16point, but 2025 was the fundamental year that we are
- 11:21going to look back on and be like, yes, everything changed in
- 11:242025. Now, if, if you're taking
- 11:27Bitcoin into self custody, if you're still accumulating
- 11:30Bitcoin even though the price has been down, you know, you
- 11:33just flip your, your perspective and you're like, I'm getting it
- 11:36on discount. I think we're all going to look
- 11:38back at 2025 and be like, it was inevitable.
- 11:40We knew where it was going. It it was very obvious.
- 11:43Now another little kind of interesting tidbit here that
- 11:48kind of shows we have fundamentally entered a new era
- 11:51in the Bitcoin kind of perspective point of view of
- 11:56where Bitcoin is going. Is this funny tweet here.
- 12:00Shout to the Jameson Lott for the first one to point point
- 12:02this one out. But in 2025, we got zero, I
- 12:07repeat, zero Bitcoin obituaries. And if you don't know what that
- 12:11means, essentially not one time last year did the mainstream
- 12:16press, the corporate press or anyone out there, right, the
- 12:20Bitcoin is dead meme. It was a 0 on the year.
- 12:24So very interesting. Now, again, 2025 feels like the
- 12:29year that we have crossed the Rubicon going into the
- 12:32mainstream consciousness. And no one actually believes
- 12:35that Bitcoin's going to 0. No one actually believes that
- 12:38Bitcoin isn't going to go up and to the right, go to million
- 12:41millions of dollars. Plus.
- 12:43No one is sitting here thinking, Oh yeah, you know, this Bitcoin
- 12:46thing, it went to 100K, it's going to go to 0.
- 12:48Now I'm sure there was some chart boys out there saying
- 12:51like, oh, it's going to go to 10K1K, all these crazy bearish
- 12:55predictions. But not one time in the year
- 12:582025 did we get the corporate press or any big publication say
- 13:04that Bitcoin died, which I think is kind of a culmination.
- 13:09Or maybe as you guys know, I love the word zeitgeist.
- 13:12A a full zeitgeist of where we are right now. 2025, I think
- 13:17will prove to you in hindsight that Bitcoin is here, it's going
- 13:23to stay. I think everyone is looking at
- 13:25Bitcoin and realizing, yeah, it's not going away in part or
- 13:29mostly in part because of Wall Street coming into this.
- 13:33If Wall Street is coming in, they want products, yes, they're
- 13:36trying to tokenize everything, but it it's just it's here, it's
- 13:39not going away. And if you are talking to people
- 13:42and they're telling you, hey, bitcoins it, it's going to go to
- 13:45zero, bro, you know, quantum computing flood, it's going to
- 13:47crack Bitcoin, yadda, yadda, yadda.
- 13:50I think they're all completely wrong, which just goes to show
- 13:52that every side of the aisle needs to update their Bitcoin
- 13:55perspective right now, whether you're bullish on Bitcoin or
- 13:58you're bearish on Bitcoin, everyone is fundamentally in the
- 14:03need of updating their models of what Bitcoin is doing, where
- 14:06it's at right now. And I do have a good clip from
- 14:09Doctor Jeff Ross, shots at the Doctor Jeff Ross kind of maybe
- 14:12mapping where we're going to go. And I'm going to play that in
- 14:15the numbers in a second. But I think we all fundamentally
- 14:19were wrong. All models were wrong.
- 14:21Yes, you know, you could have caught some local tops, some
- 14:23local bottoms. But Bitcoin has evolved.
- 14:26It has grown up. Tomorrow's at 17th birthday.
- 14:29Wall Street got into Bitcoin 2025.
- 14:32No one is saying Bitcoin is dying.
- 14:34We're starting to see a reversal on the price itself.
- 14:36We're bubbling over 90K at this, at this current moment.
- 14:40It it's starting, it's starting to look like 2026 is going to be
- 14:44a good year. And just to kind of end this on
- 14:47a on a little more bullish hopium vibe.
- 14:50Shouts out to our boy Bohines. And I really wish Nico was here
- 14:54today 'cause I could dunk on him, 'cause he really loves
- 14:57bohines. And he just tweeted yesterday
- 14:59and he actually quote tweeted this again with a rocket emoji.
- 15:02And he goes, anyone bearish on Bitcoin heading into 2026 is
- 15:07foolish, Which is kind of what I, oh, I didn't pull it up.
- 15:11What I've been saying to you guys for a minute, what I'm
- 15:14looking at, what you should be looking at, the macro trends,
- 15:19the uncertainty, it seems like all of that is being resolved.
- 15:23And as we saw, 2025 wasn't the year we thought it was going to
- 15:27be. Now obviously who knows what's
- 15:30going to happen in terms of Bitcoin price, I have no clue.
- 15:34But it does feel like we're not going to see another, another
- 15:38negative red year on Bitcoin. That would be fundamentally
- 15:42unprecedented. We are already in uncharted
- 15:44waters because Bitcoin had a red year.
- 15:47It went down what, 6% last year, even though we hit all time
- 15:50high, we ended 6% lower than we started the year, which is just
- 15:55like, OK, if this was the bear market, if 2025 was the bear
- 15:59market, which a lot of people have been saying it's the least
- 16:03volatile bear market we've ever had, which is extremely bullish
- 16:06in my opinion. If 2025 is the bear market,
- 16:10we're only down. We were only down 6% on the
- 16:12year. And 2026 is going to be a bull
- 16:16market. We're starting the year strong.
- 16:18I'm not going to lie, you know, hey, it's just two days, two
- 16:20days out of 365. But we've been pumping every day
- 16:24in 2026, which you know, that's that's going to be a short lived
- 16:27meme here. But 2025 again, if it's the bear
- 16:31market, it's the least volatile bear market we've ever seen.
- 16:35Again, you guys know me. It's optimist fields for a
- 16:38reason. Yes, maybe I'm wrong on the
- 16:41short term perspective of where Bitcoin is going, but in the
- 16:44long term, we know what's going on.
- 16:45And I always have to look at the silver lining. 6% down last
- 16:50year. If we start to pump, if we see
- 16:53the Omega candles again for 2026, if if Samson Mao comes out
- 16:58and starts ripping the Omega candles and we actually see one,
- 17:01I think 2026 is going to be a very, very good year.
- 17:05A lot of the macroeconomic factors which were headwinds in
- 17:082025 are starting to become tailwinds for 2026.
- 17:13And I don't know if you guys noticed, I will cover it later,
- 17:16but the Fed is injecting liquidity.
- 17:18It looks like QT officially over most economies.
- 17:21The western economies and even some eastern economies are
- 17:25injecting liquidity. They have to print again.
- 17:28They can't stop this trend. The narratives around Bitcoin on
- 17:31the long term are always the same.
- 17:33They have to inject liquidity into the system.
- 17:36Fiat currencies this year. If you're looking at the Dixie
- 17:39chart, the dollar lost about 10% of purchasing power this year.
- 17:43Yes, Bitcoin was down 6% this year.
- 17:46So, you know, in in relative terms, Bitcoin I think held on
- 17:51very strong, though it didn't feel that good all year long.
- 17:55When you see gold pumping, you saw silver pumping, you saw the
- 17:58S&P 500 pumping, you know, NASDAQ was pumping basically
- 18:03everything but Bitcoin pumped in the year 2025.
- 18:06And I fundamentally think it's because the new, the new players
- 18:10in the market, AKA Wall Street, the Larry Finks, the Jamie
- 18:13Diamonds of the world, they wanted to get themselves a good
- 18:16position. And if they've entered a market
- 18:19at 100K, they got a 30% discount to them.
- 18:22That's a good trade. And then at literally, if, if
- 18:26I'm looking forward, if I'm correct on this, and this was
- 18:29the bottom, the formation of a bottom here, they launch all of
- 18:33their Bitcoin products at the absolute bottom of 2025 and then
- 18:38they're going to ride it in 2026.
- 18:40So I'm I'm starting to look at the price, especially now that
- 18:44we made it over 90 Ki think, you know, there there's been some
- 18:48trading TA stuff that I saw this morning saying 92K.
- 18:52I mean eve pattern, which I don't even know what that fully
- 18:55means. I'm not I'm not a traitor like
- 18:56that. I don't really look at TAII.
- 18:58Just kind of troll you guys with the one minute chart because I I
- 19:01think it's fun to watch. You can see in real time the
- 19:04bears and the bulls, but it's hard not to feel bullish right
- 19:08now guys I'm I'm look, I'm as transparent a YouTube as
- 19:14possible. You guys know me if you've met
- 19:16me offline, I'm the same person that I am on this show.
- 19:20I am constantly bullish. Yes, there's sometimes when the
- 19:22price action starts to mess with me, but I think 2026 is going to
- 19:28be a great year, guys. I fundamentally believe this is
- 19:30a new era for Bitcoin. Everything's changed.
- 19:34All the models we've been kind of hanging our hats on are
- 19:37fundamentally broken. We don't know what's happening
- 19:40currently, but I can tell you one thing.
- 19:42I can point at the chart and tell you one thing.
- 19:46There are some very big silent buyers right now that are
- 19:51battling the bears and if they can get the run, if the bulls
- 19:54can get back in control and we get a good run from here, I
- 19:59think I think it's going to be a great 2026, my boys, I think, I
- 20:03think we're here. I think 2026 is going to be our
- 20:05years though there are there are some I'm not going to be
- 20:08completely bullish on on everything going on.
- 20:11There are some macro uncertainties that can
- 20:14potentially, you know, hurt Bitcoin specifically kind of the
- 20:19the big Black Swan event that a lot of people are saying it's
- 20:22like, look, if we enter something worse than a
- 20:26recession. Than Bitcoin currently being
- 20:29treated on treated as a risk on kind of investment it could
- 20:34fund, it could obviously be hurt.
- 20:36Bitcoin is the most liquid salable asset in the world and
- 20:40it is currently being treated like a risk on assets.
- 20:43So if the macro factors don't maintain bullishness throughout
- 20:482026, then we could be in uncharted waters to the
- 20:52downside. If the macro factors do switch
- 20:55to our, our tailwinds in in in our favor, then 2026 could
- 21:00finally be the year that everyone's been saying 2025 was
- 21:04going to be because everyone kind of was laying their hats
- 21:07on, oh, gold's running. If only a little bit of that got
- 21:10in the Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's out 400 + K.
- 21:14Same thing happened to silver. Bitcoin really didn't do
- 21:18anything. But as we've seen again, maybe
- 21:21the only last historical meme we have left is that Bitcoin always
- 21:25runs after gold runs. There is a time delay, so
- 21:30Bitcoin finally starts making its run.
- 21:32It's going to be harder and higher and faster than gold was.
- 21:37And I think once the FOMO comes back in is when things are going
- 21:40to be get get crazy. Now there has been a lot of talk
- 21:43about the business cycle. Well, if you're looking at the
- 21:46business cycle right now, it is starting to look extremely
- 21:50bullish in favor of Bitcoin. Now, obviously, I think that
- 21:54meme is still not fully tested. Yes, you can back test it.
- 21:57Hindsight's 2020, but I saw, I think I believe it was this
- 22:01morning that someone posted the bull cycle chart and they're
- 22:05like, we got a, we got a golden cross on the bull market.
- 22:08Bitcoin's absolutely bottom. It's going to RIP.
- 22:11You know, I saw some Good Hope. I'm saying if history repeats,
- 22:14it's like 400 K in play. Look, I'm just trying to get to
- 22:18100K again. I'm just trying to get to all
- 22:20time high here. So I'm not going to get
- 22:22extremely bullish and start making crazy price predictions,
- 22:26but I am tentatively very bullish on Bitcoin making a
- 22:30climb back up to all time highs start to break 100K.
- 22:33If we can maintain this current price action the next couple of
- 22:37days when we go past like 9293 K, we'll start to make a run to
- 22:41100 Ki think we're in playboys. I think we are in play here.
- 22:47So it looks like all our memes, you know, all our memes are are
- 22:52dreams now 'cause they're all broken.
- 22:54They were they were actually nightmares at this point.
- 22:57But four year cycle, in my opinion, and maybe you guys can
- 23:00let me know in the chat if you believe the four year cycle is
- 23:03broken. Now, what I find the most
- 23:05interesting is when you talk to bitcoiners, we all understand
- 23:08the four year cycle, but when you talk to anyone outside of
- 23:11the Bitcoin ecosystem, the four year cycle does not even
- 23:14register. They they don't understand what
- 23:16that means. And I think, as we've been
- 23:18talking about it all year long, it was a self fulfilling
- 23:22prophecy here. Everyone was expecting the four
- 23:25year cycle. So we got a lot of selling
- 23:27around the top. But what I think few people
- 23:30expected was this unlimited bid holding Bitcoin up at 80 K.
- 23:35I think if we saw the four year cycle play out exactly as we all
- 23:39thought, then we probably would have saw saw a bigger drop and
- 23:42we wouldn't be seeing Bitcoin cross the 50 day moving average.
- 23:45We wouldn't see Bitcoin kind of pumping back up over 90K.
- 23:49So I think my thesis is still correct guys, we're going to go
- 23:53sideways. We have just finished the
- 23:55sideways and now it's time to make a climb.
- 23:57Now, obviously this is not financial advice.
- 24:01You know, I'm just a YouTube, I'm just telling you what I
- 24:05think's going on. And I don't do this just for the
- 24:07views. This is literally what I think
- 24:08is going on. I think the institutions have
- 24:12fundamentally changed to the course of where Bitcoin is going
- 24:15in the short term because it's not playing out how how we
- 24:19thought it was, which just goes to show you that the interest
- 24:22for Bitcoin right now is just starting to heat up.
- 24:27The institutions are just barely dipping their toes in the market
- 24:30and you can see how much they're able to kind of, you know, force
- 24:34volatility in the market. Though again, in hindsight, on
- 24:37another side, this is the least volatile bear market we've ever
- 24:41seen. It's extremely bullish scenario,
- 24:43I think going into the rest of 2026.
- 24:47But hey, we're at the very beginning of this year.
- 24:49So we'll we'll have some time. I'll have some time to eat some
- 24:53crow here. I'll have some time to look back
- 24:55and be like, yeah, you know, maybe I was a little too bullish
- 24:59on the first episode back into 2026.
- 25:02But I think this is our year, guys.
- 25:05I think this is our year. Hold me to it, throw me all you
- 25:10want. I think things have changed
- 25:12fundamentally in terms of where Bitcoin is going in the short
- 25:17term, but in the long term, I think we know exactly what's
- 25:19going to happen. I think we are very, very
- 25:23solidly in the then they fight you stage, they are doing
- 25:27whatever they can to try to fight Bitcoin.
- 25:29I think that's only going to ramp up.
- 25:32Let's not get complacent here for 2026.
- 25:34I think that's going to be kind of my motto for the year is
- 25:37don't get complacent here. Make sure you're stacking, make
- 25:40sure you're saving SAT's, make sure you're securing that
- 25:42Bitcoin. That's the only thing that
- 25:44matters. This is, you know, never doom
- 25:472026. Don't get complacent.
- 25:50We are going to win big in 2026, guys.
- 25:54So that's what I'm that's kind of what I'm watching right now.
- 25:58Are we entering the expansion phase for Bitcoin?
- 26:01Are we leaving the contraction bear market consolidation?
- 26:05Only time will tell. We'll see what happens over the
- 26:08weekend though. The 10 AM kind of dumps are
- 26:10still happening. The Barts are happening.
- 26:13It's crazy out there in the Bitcoin chart right now.
- 26:15If you guys are watching the one minute chart, the hour chart,
- 26:18it's crazy out there guys. It's the volatility in the short
- 26:22term. Short term time frames are
- 26:24absolutely insane. I would not want to be trading
- 26:26right now. This is why we just stack sats
- 26:30and chill. Just take that Bitcoin in the
- 26:32cold storage. This is the best way yeah.
- 26:35Never go full 25. Yeah, that's the true.
- 26:39That's so true, so true. All right guys, so as I said, I
- 26:44got a clip from doctor Jeff Ross kind of giving his new map of
- 26:48what he think is going on, you know, for the next 5-10 twenty
- 26:51years from now. And then we we got an
- 26:54interesting news, which isn't necessarily Bitcoin related, but
- 26:57we got some interesting news coming out of Greece.
- 27:00And we all know what happened in the great financial crisis.
- 27:02We all know when Greek, Greek, you know, they got bailed out.
- 27:06Well, it looks like, you know, some, some smart financial
- 27:10planning's coming out of there, which is in stark contrast to
- 27:13what we're seeing out of the US. So I I think there's a lesson to
- 27:17be learned from this. OK.
- 27:19And then I got an interesting post for the culture to kind of,
- 27:22you know, we recapped all of 2025 on Friday or wait,
- 27:26Wednesday. And I, I got this kind of
- 27:30infographic of what the biggest kind of media trends were for
- 27:342025 around Bitcoin. And it might surprise you guys.
- 27:38And I think it really goes into this idea of we are all in the
- 27:41Bitcoin echo chamber, what the normies look for on Twitter,
- 27:45what the average, you know, non bitcoiner is hearing.
- 27:48It's not what you see on Bitcoin Twitter.
- 27:50So that's the layout for today's show.
- 27:52I will be back after a quick commercial break.
- 27:55So give me one minute and we will continue on today's
- 27:58episode. Today's episode is brought to
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- 30:11All righty then, boys and girls. So the current Bitcoin price is
- 30:1590,260. Some life back in it boys,
- 30:20there's some life back in the market, which is currently a 28
- 30:241/2% discount from all time high.
- 30:27The market cap we're inching back towards 2 trillion is
- 30:30currently at 1.8 trillion and the block height the only time
- 30:33that matters TikTok next block 930,000 and 609 three 0600 Dude.
- 30:41I always messed that up All right anyways, Jeff Ross was
- 30:45just on what Bitcoin did great clip Shout out to Morpheus for
- 30:49clipping this our boy on the Twitter team, but he's got AII
- 30:54think a very interesting narrative here and I and I think
- 30:56doctor Jeff Ross has been just like me.
- 31:00You know, we were very confident in the beginning of the year of
- 31:02what Bitcoin was going to do, but then as the year kind of
- 31:07progress, you do have to update kind of what's going on, your
- 31:11mental models of what's going on.
- 31:13And I think seeing him kind of evolved throughout the year is
- 31:16very interesting. So here's his most recent take
- 31:19of what he thinks is happening, what he thinks is going to
- 31:22happen in the next couple of years, which I think is a great
- 31:25framework. I'm, I'm, I'm literally said the
- 31:28same thing on the Wednesday show that we are in this for a multi
- 31:33generational struggle. Now I know that sounds a little
- 31:37a little rhetorical, a little propaganda, but as I've been
- 31:43telling you, I think you need to lock in.
- 31:45It's not about what happens next year, the next two, five years.
- 31:48It's what's going to happen the next 1020 years because I think
- 31:51that's when we're going to really see the fundamental
- 31:54impact of Bitcoin. So here's Jeff Ross.
- 31:57I'll come back and I'll chat about it.
- 32:00Deflation is incompatible with the credit based Fiat monetary
- 32:04system. So if it takes hold and
- 32:07continues, I actually think that's the end of that
- 32:11government's Fiat currency. So I, so I would keep a close
- 32:14eye on China and as they continue to accelerate their
- 32:18robotics and manufacturing and AI, I think that deflation is
- 32:22going to get so bad that I, I don't know, it might be the end
- 32:26of their currency. And I think that's why they're
- 32:28stockpiling gold. And, and I think Bitcoin will do
- 32:32well too, but they obviously don't like Bitcoin because it's,
- 32:34you know, they can't control it. They can't fence it in as much.
- 32:41I think, I think we're going to see Fiat currencies really
- 32:43struggle in the next 10 years or so.
- 32:46What is so, So what does that mean for Bitcoin?
- 32:49I think we're going to see at some point, you know, probably
- 32:53if we get that massive, you know, deflationary event, it's
- 33:00hard to know because historically speaking, when we
- 33:03have deflation, at least here in the US, that's actually been
- 33:05negative for the price of Bitcoin in dollar terms.
- 33:09I don't know, you know, honestly, I don't know how to
- 33:11think about that because because I think the only thing that
- 33:14survives are, you know, actually sound money are gold and
- 33:19Bitcoin, but you don't get those huge price tag.
- 33:23I think what you just get is you have Weimar Germany type
- 33:26movements in Fiat currency. So you'll see that in the price
- 33:29of Bitcoin and the price of gold as well.
- 33:31And then the Fiat currency will just die at that point and then
- 33:34the only thing left standing will be the sound monies.
- 33:38It's really hard to predict though what that means going
- 33:41forward. I think just at the other side
- 33:43of that, the world is priced in Bitcoin and that kind of fits
- 33:46with my theory. What I've been talking about for
- 33:48a while now is the the multi decade approach.
- 33:51So, so the 20 tens was the collectible phase for Bitcoin.
- 33:54The 20 twenties which we're in now is the store of value phase.
- 33:58Then comes the medium of exchange in the twenty 30s and
- 34:01by the 20 forties, I think Bitcoin is the world's unit of
- 34:04account and I think everything is.
- 34:06And you don't even think about Bitcoin in dollar terms or Fiat
- 34:08currency terms anymore. It's just the world is priced in
- 34:10Bitcoin at that point. So like you know, sailors
- 34:13projections of whatever 1021 million by 2045 or whatever
- 34:17things are, I don't think they'll even be the dollars
- 34:21around necessarily to think like that anymore.
- 34:23I think the world will just be priced in Bitcoin.
- 34:25And so the way I look at it is how much will like a New York
- 34:28strip state cost in Sats at that point?
- 34:31How much will my rib eyes be in Sats in the 1020 years?
- 34:36All right, the first thing that that popped out when I, when I
- 34:38was like kind of prepping for the show is it's just, it's so
- 34:42obvious to me on this side of being a Bitcoiner, just like
- 34:46Bitcoiners are living in the future.
- 34:48You know, you guys yell at me constantly about like one
- 34:50Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin. You guys are Fiat Maxis because
- 34:54you are always talking about the price of Bitcoin in Fiat
- 34:56dollars. And like, you can't even price
- 34:58Bitcoin with something that they can print to Infinity.
- 35:01And I'm like, yeah, dude, I, I, I get all of that, bro.
- 35:03Like I'm, I'm on come 100% on board with you.
- 35:07But where we currently are, the best metric to understand the
- 35:12value of Bitcoin is in Fiat currencies.
- 35:15For better or worse. That's the, you know, that's
- 35:17where we are. As I've joked with a few of you
- 35:19guys on in the chat, it's like, OK, then what do we price
- 35:22Bitcoin in? Like 1 Bitcoin equals one
- 35:24Bitcoin doesn't mean anything to a normal person.
- 35:27It's like, do we price Bitcoin in, you know, jars of Mayo or
- 35:31like, you know, pounds of steak you can buy?
- 35:34Like what? What do we do here guys?
- 35:35Are, are we kind of using our own mental models to go back to
- 35:39bartering? Because Fiat dollars are, are
- 35:41are, you know, trash. It's like, no, that's the
- 35:44easiest metric for value that most people understand isn't
- 35:47Fiat dollars. But I do fundamentally agree
- 35:50with Doctor Jeff Ross on this, that in a long enough time
- 35:53frame, 1020 years from now, I do also believe that Bitcoin will
- 35:58be the world's metric for value. It will be what we price the
- 36:02world in. I always talk about the
- 36:04petrosat. Once we get Bitcoin or rather
- 36:07oil priced in Bitcoin, that's when we can fundamentally start
- 36:10to shift the unit of account for the world.
- 36:13We're not there yet. You're starting to see some
- 36:15inklings of this, but we're not there yet.
- 36:17But as Def Frost was saying, you know, when we start pricing our
- 36:21stakes and SAT's, you know, we really want.
- 36:23Now, the other interesting part about what he said and really
- 36:27why I wanted to bring this up is because as I keep saying, this
- 36:31is a generational thing. Like we're going to be doing
- 36:34this for the next 10, at least 10 to 20 years.
- 36:39And if you aren't ready to do this for the next foreseeable
- 36:42future for the, you know, long basically the rest of my adult
- 36:46life, like, what are you doing here?
- 36:49This is a revolution. This is a generational
- 36:52revolution. Though I do like his framing
- 36:55here and it's not, he's not the first person to say this, but
- 36:57when you kind of look at that model, it really kind of, I
- 37:02don't know, alleviates your, your time frames, your
- 37:04perspectives. You're like, OK, that, you know,
- 37:07that makes sense. 1st 10 years was collectible.
- 37:09The next 10 years where we're right smack dab in the middle of
- 37:12its store value. And then medium exchange.
- 37:15And I know eventually world reserve currency.
- 37:18And in the last couple of years there has been a big push for
- 37:22medium exchange on Bitcoin. It's like you need to use
- 37:25Bitcoin, like you need to buy things with Bitcoin.
- 37:27We need more merchants buying Bitcoin and while I do agree
- 37:30with the fundamental kind of message, we need it to store
- 37:35value. Hence why we constantly tell you
- 37:38guys or I constantly say that I think number go up in the in the
- 37:42short term is the most important thing about Bitcoin.
- 37:45Like Bitcoin has to go up for it to succeed, for it to do what we
- 37:50want it to do. It has to if Bitcoin just goes
- 37:53sideways forever. I've heard a lot of people say
- 37:55like, oh dude, Bitcoin can go sideways at 100K forever.
- 37:59And it's like, no, it can't. If it does that and they print
- 38:02more dollars, Bitcoin isn't even keeping up with inflation.
- 38:05So it has to go up. It needs to succeed the store of
- 38:09value phase. And yes, Bitcoin does all of
- 38:11the, you know, various characteristics of money, medium
- 38:14of exchange, store value, unit of account.
- 38:17It does all that at the same time.
- 38:19Some of us are already on Bitcoin, some of it's already
- 38:23are, you know, 0 Fiat bitcoins are a unit of account.
- 38:26We think in SAT's, you know, one Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin.
- 38:29Like some of us are already living in the future, but the
- 38:32world hasn't caught up to that yet.
- 38:34And in the meantime, for better or worse, we do have to deal
- 38:38with the Fiat system to survive. Unless you're one of those
- 38:40Bitcoiners that, you know, can use Bitcoin to pay their bills,
- 38:44their rent, their groceries, everything they want to do.
- 38:48If you are in a community that allows you to function and
- 38:52thrive on a Bitcoin standard, then you are really living in
- 38:55the future. But most of us are kind of, you
- 38:58know, fully in Bitcoin, but we still have to deal with the Fiat
- 39:02world. And as we're seeing this is
- 39:04starting to evolve, there's become a lot of Bitcoin products
- 39:07that you can now kind of, you know, use your Bitcoin in a way
- 39:11that you don't have to completely get wrecked by the
- 39:14Fiat system. But we're still very early in
- 39:16this process. So I think for this today,
- 39:20obviously great framework by Doctor Jeff Ross, but looking
- 39:24into what's going to happen in 2026, it's kind of one of those
- 39:28years where it's like, all right, look, whatever happens
- 39:30this year, maybe I got caught up in all the fervor and all the
- 39:33different narratives, which I am going to cover the main
- 39:35narratives for 2025 in a bit. I got to remember what I'm doing
- 39:41here. I got to remember this is a long
- 39:43term generational decade thing. This is a decade, 2-3 decades of
- 39:49us needing to be here every single day, updating our mental
- 39:53models, continuing to stat, continuing to get more people
- 39:56that are loosely aligned with our perspectives.
- 40:00To start to save in Bitcoin, you need to save in Bitcoin.
- 40:05It is very it is very simple. Actually, I was having this
- 40:09conversation with Luke and I wasn't going to bring this up,
- 40:11but we're having this conversation this morning kind
- 40:15of updating the four turning model.
- 40:19And I've been saying, and you guys know I've been, I've been
- 40:22talking about this constantly where like if you're a Bitcoiner
- 40:26in 2025, yeah, we didn't, we didn't see, you know, the
- 40:29parabolic purchasing power games we wanted.
- 40:33But I'm guessing you weren't really struggling.
- 40:36You I'm, I'm guessing if you were saving in Bitcoin, maybe
- 40:40mentally you, you felt the pain. But when it came to your, your
- 40:43financial health, I don't think you were struggling like a lot
- 40:47of people that are still completely locked into the Fiat
- 40:51system. And I think if you look at this
- 40:54from that perspective, what did we see all of 2025?
- 40:58It seemed like the Fiat world, like the the average person, the
- 41:01normie, not a bitcoiner, is finally waking up to everything.
- 41:05They're in that initial stage of waking up and realizing they got
- 41:09handed a bad hand. But big corners, we've
- 41:12understood this for a long time. 2025 for us was more of like,
- 41:16see, I told you so. I told you that this was going
- 41:19on. And so we are seeing like a fork
- 41:22in the road right now. You're either a big corner, a
- 41:24sovereign individual, you know, getting your information not
- 41:28from the corporate press. And maybe you're not necessarily
- 41:31thriving on the rocket ship, but you can start to see it breaking
- 41:35away. You know, you're starting to see
- 41:37the fruits of your labor. You're starting to see, hey, my
- 41:39life is getting better while everyone around me is getting
- 41:42worse. While they're getting more
- 41:43upset, you know, they're getting more flustered.
- 41:46They want to protest. They're angry about these
- 41:48institutions. They're angry about the fraud
- 41:50and the corruption as bitcoiners are sitting here like, yeah, you
- 41:53know, I've, I've literally been telling you guys this for years.
- 41:56This is why I became a bitcoiner in the first place.
- 41:59And so it does seem like there is a fork in the road right now.
- 42:03You're either a bitcoiner, you're either doing the research
- 42:06for yourself, you're either looking at alternative news.
- 42:10You're, you know, really trying to opt out of the Fiat system.
- 42:13You're trying to deleverage yourself from the Fiat system as
- 42:16much as possible, or you're just, you're just on the
- 42:20nosedive with the Fiat currencies.
- 42:22You're just like, hey, you know, buckle up.
- 42:24The plane is crashing type stuff.
- 42:26You're angry, but you don't know that there's a solution, which
- 42:30is one of my favorite things to say.
- 42:32Like most people just don't understand that Bitcoin is the
- 42:36solution to the problem. It seems too simple.
- 42:39It seems almost naive when you're like, hey, look, your
- 42:41life sucks. I I get it.
- 42:43You can't pay your rent. You're living paycheck to
- 42:46paycheck. You know, you're, you're doing
- 42:49payment plans on your burrito, bro, but you should really be
- 42:52buying Bitcoin. And they're like, bro, I can't
- 42:54even survive right now. I have no excess.
- 42:57And it really, my heart really goes out to everyone.
- 43:00I'm like, man, you know, I was even thinking this morning and
- 43:03last night, I'm like, OK, you know, how can I cut back on my
- 43:06expenses so that I can stack more Bitcoin than I did last
- 43:10year? And I'm like, oh, you know, I
- 43:11could cut down on here and here. I was literally thinking of that
- 43:14last night, like, oh, you know, I could cut down here, here and
- 43:17here and stack more Bitcoin and I'll be better off in the
- 43:20future. But most people won't even
- 43:22consider that idea. They're like, Nah, those bit
- 43:24corners are dumb. You know, there's much bigger
- 43:27problems. Fixing the money is not going to
- 43:30fix the world. And and from our perspective,
- 43:33it's like, look, it's not going to fix everything in the world.
- 43:35But our main problem right now, or rather the source, the root
- 43:39of all of our problems comes from the fact that they can have
- 43:44the unlimited money printer just print up money, you know,
- 43:48magically make dollars appear and then start throwing that at
- 43:52all this stuff that we do not like, that doesn't benefit us.
- 43:55That is completely detached from reality.
- 43:59It's really a simple choice. You either start saving in
- 44:02Bitcoin, your life is going to steadily improve, or you go down
- 44:06metaphorically down with the ship on Fiat.
- 44:09They're telling us what's going on.
- 44:10Again, your purchasing power. If you are a dollar maxi, Fiat
- 44:14cash maxi, you've lost 10% of your purchasing power.
- 44:17That means your life just got 10% harder, in my opinion.
- 44:21Your expenses just got 10% more. You need to save in something
- 44:25that they cannot print, whether that means you're buying gold or
- 44:28silver. I mean, technically you can
- 44:30always find some more gold and silver as long as you're in
- 44:33sound money or at the very least as long as you're in assets.
- 44:36At this point, you know, you're you're starting to move in the
- 44:39right direction. But the end goal, the end game
- 44:42is always ending up in Bitcoin, full stop.
- 44:46And once you get your dollars, your hard earned labor, your
- 44:49hard earned time into Bitcoin, you can finally chill at the end
- 44:53of the finish line and be like, ah, all right, you know, panic
- 44:56averted. I'm safe, everything is good.
- 44:58I think that's how most of us bitcoiners look at this game.
- 45:02It's you don't feel safe until it's in Bitcoin or further, you
- 45:05don't feel safe until it's in Bitcoin in cold storage and you
- 45:09get that notification that, OK, my Bitcoin has confirmed it's
- 45:12real Bitcoin. I'm chilling.
- 45:15It's just a mental switch going on.
- 45:17And I think more people are primed to make that mental shift
- 45:22because of what we saw in 2025. Now they're going to be upset.
- 45:26You know, there's going to be some pain there.
- 45:28There's going to be some crying. You know they're going to fight
- 45:30you. But it's our time.
- 45:33It's our time to show people why Bitcoin was created, why they
- 45:37need to save in Bitcoin, how this will improve their life.
- 45:40It's not so much about the monetary history.
- 45:42It's not so much about the technicals.
- 45:44It's about. Hey use.
- 45:46This thing to live a better life, that's the sell because I
- 45:51think we're starting to see bitcoiners are doing very well.
- 45:55Yes, we didn't have the best year ever, but we're doing,
- 45:57we're not panicking here. You know, we're not really
- 45:59struggling. We're kind of just chilling.
- 46:01We're kind of just chilling. All right, guys, I do want to
- 46:04cover this grease story. It's a little different than
- 46:07what I'd normally do, but it's almost like the the world is
- 46:12healing a little bit. It's almost like it's healing
- 46:14all right. Anyways, I'll be right back.
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- 48:38world. That's BITKEY dot world with the
- 48:43code simply. All righty then, boys, mainly
- 48:52boys and some girls. Here is this story.
- 48:57So this came out, this actually came out a couple of days ago,
- 49:02obviously because it's not necessarily Bitcoin related that
- 49:05it kind of slipped under my radar.
- 49:07But I, I think, I think it's a strategy of what they're doing
- 49:12that when you compare it to what the US is doing is very
- 49:16interesting. So Greece pays EU creditors
- 49:19ahead of schedule to boost market confidence.
- 49:23Very interesting from a financial stability standpoint.
- 49:28So Greece's early repayments of its first bailout loans
- 49:31underscores an important turn around, cutting future interest
- 49:34costs and accelerating debt reduction as the country seeks
- 49:37to strengthen market confidence. So, of course, if you weren't
- 49:42sleeping under a rock, I think everyone is is vaguely familiar
- 49:47with the Greek economy blowing up.
- 49:50You know, they got bailed out. It was the start of all the pain
- 49:54we felt when I became an adult around 2008.
- 49:57Well, you know, they took a lot of loans out.
- 50:00And now they are paying their debt back ahead of schedule
- 50:05literally by years. And I think the big take away
- 50:08here and actually shots at the jet crews for kind of pointing
- 50:11it out. He's like, the lesson for 2026
- 50:13is do what Greece is doing, which is eliminate your debt and
- 50:16pay off what you what you have outstanding because you don't
- 50:21want to get into a position right now where you have
- 50:24outstanding debt. So Greece completed an early
- 50:27repayment of €5.3 billion in loans from its first eurozone
- 50:30bailout program this week. The settlement of the debt,
- 50:33originally scheduled to mature after 2031 or even into the 20
- 50:37forties, marks a positive step in Greece's decades long effort
- 50:41to stabilize its public finances.
- 50:44Of course, in 2010 they blew up, right?
- 50:50What's that? What's that?
- 50:51Well, you know, a global thing for us.
- 50:54So Greece lost access to financial markets in 2010, and
- 50:58the loan facility prevented the country from default, defaulting
- 51:01immediately, limiting risk to other EU members.
- 51:05Between late 2009 and 2018, Greece suffered a severe
- 51:09sovereign debt crisis triggered by years of fiscal
- 51:11mismanagement, large deficits and weak economic
- 51:14competitiveness. The crisis necessitated 3
- 51:17international bailouts and Greece bailouts unfolded in
- 51:20phases. They're no longer active in the
- 51:23lending facility. But as you can see now, since
- 51:272023, Greece has restored investment grade credit rating
- 51:30for major agencies, reflecting improved fiscal performance and
- 51:34institutional stability. In turn, this has helped to push
- 51:37down borrowing costs. And then there's of course, you
- 51:41know, debate over whether this is a smart move.
- 51:44Obviously, the Keynesians out there are like they should have,
- 51:47they should have invested that money instead of repaying.
- 51:50They're losing out on stuff. From their, the government's
- 51:53perspective, they're like, look, we, we paid 5.3 billion off EUR
- 51:58of loans, which means we've cut about $1.3 billion of loan
- 52:02interest. It seems like a smart move.
- 52:05Now, obviously not necessarily putting it in Bitcoin terms yet,
- 52:10but we did see some very interesting stuff come out of
- 52:13the Fed, which I would argue is the complete opposite angle
- 52:17here. So Greece, of course was one of
- 52:20the epicenters of the last financial crisis in 2010.
- 52:25Obviously 2008 to 2010 is where things got very rocky.
- 52:29They had to take a loan out because of their, their
- 52:33financial mismanagement. Well, it looks like now they're
- 52:37flipping the script here instead of continuing down to Keynesian,
- 52:41just take out as much debt as possible.
- 52:44You know, print the money, like just inflate your debt away.
- 52:48They're doing the opposite. They're like, look, I'm, I'm
- 52:51tired of paying debt. I'm tired of these interest
- 52:54payments. I'm going to start paying this
- 52:56off ahead of schedule by 5 or 6 years, maybe four or five years,
- 53:00which you can argue is completely 180 away from
- 53:04financial mismanagement. Excuse me, it is, you know, very
- 53:08prudent financial management, which I think is kind of the,
- 53:13the, the lesson here, the, the kind of take away from what is
- 53:17going on. I, I don't think currently on a
- 53:20personal, individual level that you should be over leveraging
- 53:25yourself, taking up more debt than you need to.
- 53:28Yes, they're going to inflate the debt away, but personally,
- 53:31you probably not where you want to be, especially when you start
- 53:35to consider that the US is doing the complete opposite.
- 53:38We saw Japan kind of shift their perspective from, you know, the
- 53:42risk free lender of the world to now, oh shit, we have to raise
- 53:46interest rates. We're going to inject liquidity.
- 53:49So one of my favorite kind of conspiracy theories or or
- 53:54tinfoil hats or kind of Bitcoin lore is the idea that the reason
- 53:58Satoshi Nakamoto picked the name Satoshi Nakamoto as his
- 54:02pseudonym to create Bitcoin under was because it was kind of
- 54:07a nod to the US or to the Western world.
- 54:10And be like, if you don't figure out your debt problem, your
- 54:12money printing problem, you will become Japan.
- 54:16Of course, that was 17 years ago.
- 54:18And Japan has been able to be running the, you know, running
- 54:22on fumes for the last 17 years. But the the shit has finally hit
- 54:26the fan. And that's what we saw happen in
- 54:282025. Now, part of that kind of lore
- 54:32was, hey, if the US doesn't figure out its spending problem,
- 54:36it will become Japan. Well, Japan just hit that wall.
- 54:40Now, does that mean the US will have 17 years to figure it out
- 54:44or because everything is more intertwined that it might
- 54:48unravel a lot faster? And that's really the big
- 54:52question here in the global markets is can they paper over
- 54:57the fundamental cracks in the Fiat system?
- 55:00And we are starting to see those cracks happen because over the
- 55:04weekend, we saw that the Fed injected, what is it, 74 billion
- 55:11into the overnight repurchase agreement, which in context, if
- 55:15you look back here, isn't as crazy as what we saw in 2020
- 55:20with, you know, $152 billion. But it is kind of the start of
- 55:26right before 2020 when, of course, we got locked down.
- 55:32They had to print an obscene amount of money.
- 55:35This I think is a precursor of where we are going.
- 55:38So look, if 2026 kind of plays out like we've seen in the past
- 55:43and this just got in the buzzer and 2025 was a 2019 year or a,
- 55:49a, a corollary to the 2019 year. Does this mean that 2026 is when
- 55:54things get really crazy and the liquidity just gets turned on?
- 56:00I do want to look at the M2. I'm going to look at it live
- 56:03with you guys because I forgot to pull this up this morning.
- 56:06Let's see, we'll do the M2 for the United States 10 year here.
- 56:13Let me let me is this up? Is this up the right one up?
- 56:17We do. OK, so you can see, you know,
- 56:20here is a 2008 financial crisis. Didn't do too much, right?
- 56:26And then, oh, this one's the old one.
- 56:28This one, This 1 ended in 27. This 1 ended when things
- 56:31actually got interesting. We'll go to this one.
- 56:34OK, so here we are, Max. Let's go Max, so you can see all
- 56:41the inflection points 2001 the.com bubble, 2008, the great
- 56:46financial crisis, this little hockey slip sliver, hockey stick
- 56:50sliver is 2020. And again, we are at all time
- 56:55highs for the M2 liquidity right now.
- 57:00So look, I think it's becoming very clear they cannot stop this
- 57:05trend. The liquidity is coming back on
- 57:07board. Now does that necessarily mean
- 57:08it's going to end up in Bitcoin right away?
- 57:11No, I don't think so. But what we are seeing in the
- 57:14repo markets right now is the Fed is injecting liquidity into
- 57:18it. They have to inject liquidity
- 57:20into it. And then if you really kind of
- 57:22combine that with what's going on in the silver markets, it
- 57:25looks like they're trying to crush silver.
- 57:27So as the rumors have been the last couple of days, it seems
- 57:32like there might have been some very big banks on the wrong side
- 57:36of silver shorts and they had to inject liquidity to kind of, you
- 57:41know, silently bail them out. Now we won't know if that is the
- 57:46case, then obviously I don't think we'll go bankrupt.
- 57:49But I do think they'll probably get rolled into like JP Morgan
- 57:52or something like that. It'll they'll get the big banks
- 57:55will get rolled into the even bigger banks.
- 57:57So very interesting stuff going on in the more trad FI markets
- 58:01right now, which I think is really kind of showing you the,
- 58:06the dichotomy. Here we have Greece, which was
- 58:10the, they, they probably learned their lessons from the last time
- 58:13that they caused the great financial crisis or was rather
- 58:17blown up around that time. They're starting to make smarter
- 58:21financial moves. And here in the US and in Japan,
- 58:26I guess Japan's starting to wake up and they're making better
- 58:29moves. You could argue maybe they're
- 58:31not depending on your view, but I think it's it we're starting
- 58:35to, you should be starting to ask the question, will the
- 58:40Federal Reserve start to make smarter moves?
- 58:45And how do you position yourself for that?
- 58:48And how do you position yourself for the opposite of them not
- 58:52making smarter moves and continuing down the same path
- 58:55that they've been on? Obviously, I think from our
- 58:59perspective, the solution is very simple.
- 59:03You start to save in something that they cannot print, which is
- 59:06of course Bitcoin. You need to start saving in
- 59:10Bitcoin like your life depends on it.
- 59:13I know that's hyperbolic, but it's true.
- 59:17You need sound money. That's the full stop of this.
- 59:20And I think Bitcoin's the best money.
- 59:22I think Bitcoin's going to take over the next 5-10, twenty
- 59:24years. I think it's Bitcoin's time to
- 59:26shine. Yes, 2025 was our last year,
- 59:29wasn't what we thought it was going to be.
- 59:31It was a transitional year. Things were changing.
- 59:33But now we are in a new era where I think Bitcoin will start
- 59:37to see its star rising. It's going to take its spot as
- 59:41the best money moving forward from here on out.
- 59:44First we got a, we got a dethrone goal and then we're
- 59:48going for the rest of it baby and then we're going for the
- 59:50rest of the market. So that's kind of my views on
- 59:53what we're going on right now. And then right now to end the
- 59:58show, I do want to kind of go back and look at all the
- 1:00:01different trends for 2025. And there is some, you know,
- 1:00:05some takeaways for this for us big corners that are perpetually
- 1:00:08online. But one last commercial break
- 1:00:11and I will be right back. I want to give a shout out to
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- 1:02:04freedom. All right, all right, all right,
- 1:02:11all right, all right, all right. All right.
- 1:02:18Anyways, anyways, anyways, yeah, yeah, All right.
- 1:02:21So shouts out to our boy Fernando.
- 1:02:25He's been on the show. This is his Twitter account BTC
- 1:02:28Perception, where he kind of maps the various narratives
- 1:02:34around Bitcoin, trying to give people high signal stories and
- 1:02:40not only Bitcoin stories, but what is getting the most amount
- 1:02:45of not just engagement baiting, but like what is the
- 1:02:48conversation about? And I think this year there,
- 1:02:52there has been a huge, I think misunderstanding of what are the
- 1:02:59biggest kind of headlines outside of our echo chamber and
- 1:03:04what is necessarily kind of shaping the narrative around
- 1:03:08Bitcoin. And I saw this, I was going to
- 1:03:10do do this a couple of days ago, but you know, it, it, it's
- 1:03:16still, it's still in time, it, it's still in vogue, I guess.
- 1:03:19So BTC perception on Twitter goes these Bitcoin narratives
- 1:03:23capture the attention in 2025. So let's look at them.
- 1:03:28We have MicroStrategy and Sailor, I think extremely
- 1:03:31obvious, you know, Sailor stacked an unbelievable amount
- 1:03:35of Bitcoin, I think finally getting up to like 7% of all
- 1:03:38Bitcoin supply if if I remember the numbers correctly.
- 1:03:41And then of course, Trump at the beginning of the year.
- 1:03:43And so look you for the audio listens, you'll you'll see kind
- 1:03:47of their, you could call it like a grasp, you know, it's it's
- 1:03:50almost looks like the price, the price action here.
- 1:03:53And I'm guessing, you know, January here to December.
- 1:03:58And you can start to see when they were more active and how
- 1:04:02they kind of related to other stuff.
- 1:04:04Of course, Trump in the very beginning of the year was one of
- 1:04:08the biggest narratives around Bitcoin in 2025.
- 1:04:11Whether you loved him or hate him or you thought it was good
- 1:04:13or bad, it did definitely revolve around Trump embracing
- 1:04:18Bitcoin and everything they're doing with Bitcoin and shit
- 1:04:21coins. Now this one's kind of
- 1:04:23interesting mining cause from our perspective, whenever we
- 1:04:25talk about Bitcoin mining, you guys tune out.
- 1:04:28You guys don't want to see it, but from a corporate press, they
- 1:04:32love the mining stuff and you can see it only picked up, you
- 1:04:36know, continue to pick up until the end of the year.
- 1:04:38Because I, I think there is a lot of interesting stuff going
- 1:04:41on with hash rate right now. And, and everyone's wondering
- 1:04:43like is this is, is this when we see the Bitcoin price start
- 1:04:47running? Then of course, Bitcoin ETFs,
- 1:04:50again, one one of the bigger news stories throughout the
- 1:04:53year, the amount of inflows, the amount of outflows, whether they
- 1:04:56were launching ETFs, whether they didn't.
- 1:05:00It is interesting that it picked up towards the end of the year
- 1:05:03because I think that was probably due more to we saw a
- 1:05:06lot of outflows coming from the ETFs, though at the same time,
- 1:05:11you know, we'll see a lot of inflows.
- 1:05:13So it's very interesting that it was more popular towards the end
- 1:05:16of the year. Personally, it felt like it was
- 1:05:18more popular during the beginning of the year.
- 1:05:20Anyways, all time high, record high.
- 1:05:22I think you can you can see these spikes here exactly and
- 1:05:25know exactly when those all time highs happen.
- 1:05:28This is what I forgot. What?
- 1:05:30When was it March? This one's obviously October.
- 1:05:33I think this one was around June.
- 1:05:36I I don't even remember when Bitcoin hit all time high before
- 1:05:39October 'cause it felt like it never was doing anything but
- 1:05:43that. That one speaks for itself.
- 1:05:46The SEC or Gary Gensler? Gary Gensler was in the news a
- 1:05:49little bit this year. I kept trolling that he's coming
- 1:05:52out of the full Bitcoin maxi, but obviously the SEC had a very
- 1:05:56positive take on Bitcoin throughout 2025.
- 1:06:00Now crash and plunge. It was honestly, it was silent
- 1:06:04all year long until the October top.
- 1:06:07The October top happened and guess who was out there saying
- 1:06:10Bitcoin's crashing, it's plunging, it's over.
- 1:06:13I forget Jamie Dimon, he was the one backing all this up.
- 1:06:18Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Again, the beginning of the year
- 1:06:23was huge on Bitcoin reserves, strategic reserves, whether
- 1:06:26that's from the federal government, the state level, or
- 1:06:30even on the corporate level. Towards the end of the year, it
- 1:06:34completely fizzled out, which is why I kept saying I'm like,
- 1:06:37look, we're not seeing any action coming from the US,
- 1:06:40though we saw it come from the states.
- 1:06:43I think officially now we're at like 4, but that narrative just
- 1:06:48completely, just completely got naked.
- 1:06:50Of course, BlackRock has been dominating all year long.
- 1:06:53Then we got fraud and scams. Of course they're going to roll
- 1:06:55out the fraud and scams. Oh, we're starting to put some
- 1:06:58of those sagas behind us. AKA, you know, the FTX stuff is
- 1:07:03Sam Bakeman freed is, is in jail.
- 1:07:07Hopefully, you know, actually I'm not, I'm not going to say
- 1:07:09that, but we've seen a lot of fraud stuff around Bitcoin.
- 1:07:12The Lightning Network shouts out to my boy Jesse from Ambos.
- 1:07:17Dude, Lightning Network is killing it right now.
- 1:07:21The Lightning Network has really been the unsung hero of 2025.
- 1:07:26While there's been a lot of narratives, the boys building
- 1:07:30lightning, you know, doing the coding, the developers that are
- 1:07:33creating the lightning products, dude, they were under the radar
- 1:07:38all year long and really, really saw some, some really cool stuff
- 1:07:45in Lightning that I think is really securing Lightning as the
- 1:07:50de facto way to scale Bitcoin. Now, obviously it's not perfect,
- 1:07:55but I think if you, if you look into some of the more recent
- 1:07:59lightning news, I, I think you'd be pleasantly surprised where
- 1:08:02they, where they were all year long.
- 1:08:04And it really goes into kind of the, the Bitcoin ethos of just
- 1:08:08like keep your head down and code.
- 1:08:10And yeah, they don't get that much fanfare.
- 1:08:13It doesn't get the headlines. But they built it.
- 1:08:16They built in 2025. They just shut up and built.
- 1:08:20So shouts out to everyone over building on Lightning.
- 1:08:24You know, shouts out to my personal friend Justifer.
- 1:08:26He's, he's been covering this incredible work over on the
- 1:08:29Lightning Network. Of course, 100K milestone,
- 1:08:32beginning of the year in the middle, you know, first part of
- 1:08:36the year we got 100K and then of course in October when we hit
- 1:08:39100K. Then hacks and thefts.
- 1:08:41There was a lot of hacks, there's a lot of thefts.
- 1:08:45Does obviously get the headlines trying to scare you away.
- 1:08:48El Salvador had a little bit of action in the beginning of the
- 1:08:50year and then quantum computing speed up towards the end of the
- 1:08:54year. Anyways, I didn't mean to go
- 1:08:56through all of it, but there is probably a stark omission here.
- 1:09:01If you're a Bitcoiner, you're like, I thought the biggest news
- 1:09:03in Bitcoin was core versus knots.
- 1:09:06Well, how about this surprise not to see the core knots was
- 1:09:09here and they just retweet core versus knots.
- 1:09:12Bitcoin existential crisis of 2020, 591.7% contained to
- 1:09:17Bitcoin slash or Bitcoin Twitter slash X8 point 3% everywhere
- 1:09:22else combined. Your timeline is not reality,
- 1:09:26which is one of the, I think probably a bigger message here
- 1:09:31than what was, you know, really talked about in Bitcoin.
- 1:09:36You guys were lecturing me all year long.
- 1:09:39You're like, I'm not going to watch the show.
- 1:09:40You guys aren't covering Corvor's knots enough.
- 1:09:43I'm like, dude, we've covered it.
- 1:09:44We covered it like 6 times. I, I can't keep talking about
- 1:09:47the same stuff. Well, I can, but in regards to
- 1:09:52Corvor's knots. But I think it just like that
- 1:09:56last point is the most poignant, like your timeline is not
- 1:09:58reality. And when you do unplug from what
- 1:10:02you see in the echo chamber, you start to realize like most
- 1:10:04people don't know what we're talking about.
- 1:10:06They don't know what matters to us.
- 1:10:09Hence why I kind of shifted tune towards the end of the year and
- 1:10:12was like, I think the biggest attack on Bitcoin is coming from
- 1:10:15Wall Street. And most people weren't really
- 1:10:18talking about that at the time. Obviously, that was when we saw
- 1:10:21the Bitcoin treasury company struggling.
- 1:10:23We saw JP Morgan attacking Bitcoin.
- 1:10:27You know, we saw Larry Fink being pretty bullish on Bitcoin,
- 1:10:30but I think the biggest attack and I, I think I might be proven
- 1:10:35right now, you know, entering 2026.
- 1:10:37So the biggest attack on Bitcoin was from Wall Street.
- 1:10:40The institutions, whether it was, you know, the Jane St.
- 1:10:43algorithm trading, whether it was the fighting of Bitcoin so
- 1:10:47that they could scoop up lower, whether it's incentivizing ways
- 1:10:51for you to give up your keys. I think the bigger attack was
- 1:10:54coming from Wall Street all year long.
- 1:10:57You could even argue that maybe the FUD around court versus not
- 1:11:02was, you know, some form of institutions trying to Co-op
- 1:11:06Bitcoin. Not going to go too deep into
- 1:11:09that. But it's very interesting when
- 1:11:11you objectively step back on the Bitcoin narratives and you start
- 1:11:16to see, oh, you know, what are people thinking, feeling and
- 1:11:21talking about around Bitcoin? And some of those might have
- 1:11:24surprised you. So that's it for me today, guys,
- 1:11:29it is Friday. As you can tell, I'm not fully
- 1:11:33back yet. My, my voice is still messed up.
- 1:11:36I, I'm still kind of stuffy over here.
- 1:11:39So hopefully on Monday I'm probably going to keep it pretty
- 1:11:42chill all weekend. Hopefully I can get over
- 1:11:45whatever this bug is. I, I think when I went home, it
- 1:11:49was cool. It was drier.
- 1:11:52I got off the plane to Miami. It was hot, it was humid and
- 1:11:55then in the last couple of days down here, it got cold.
- 1:11:58So I'm I'm still dealing with my, you know, whatever is going
- 1:12:01on here. But anyways, enough of me.
- 1:12:04I love you guys. I appreciate you guys.
- 1:12:08Let's let's lock in for 2026. All right, We are locking in for
- 1:12:132026. We are not dooming, we're not
- 1:12:19getting complacent. We're stacking.
- 1:12:22We're storing our Bitcoin in cold storage.
- 1:12:25We'll continue to spread the Bitcoin propaganda because the
- 1:12:29Fiat world's propaganda is an OverDrive and we got to fight
- 1:12:33fire with fire. Anyways, as always, it's a
- 1:12:38weekend. Get some sun, eat some good
- 1:12:40food, hang out with your loved ones, or at the very least call
- 1:12:43your loved ones. So those are the things that
- 1:12:46matter. And if also, hey, if you're
- 1:12:47getting paid today, probably stack some sets, I wouldn't be
- 1:12:51surprised if it starts ripping on us guys.
- 1:12:53All right, peace out boys and girls.
- 1:12:55I will see you on Monday. Today's episode was brought to
- 1:13:01you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
- 1:13:05mission to enable financial independence.