Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 3

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NFL Gambling Recap | Week 3 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: is our NFL Week three Sunday Recap episode. I am
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Chad Milman and I am joined by my bff, my companion,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: my campadre, my co host, Professional Better, Simon Hunter, et. Oh.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm in let me ask you a question for
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: a bee. Is it possible that we are already out
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: smarting ourselves? We're going to get into it, but I
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: feel like we left some serious wins on the board today.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: And like when you get on the call and I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: get on the call to do the podcast, and we
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: both look at each other and we're like, how did
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: we end up with this game in our final five?
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I feel like our process went way way wrong.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely had some regrets. I don't know what the
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: hell happened to us. We were on such a clear
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: path on Thursday and we just got totally totally off
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: the tracks on Sunday. So we might have to start
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: doing your plan, which is putting our picks in on Thursday,
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: and then if we want, if we need to change,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: and we will, but I think you're right. I think
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: we need to avoid Sunday because we were locked in
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: this weekend.
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, had some some bad misses.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by
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• 2:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: We had Denver plus five and a half. We had
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Atlanta plus three and a half. We had Carolina plus
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: five and a half. We had Houston plus seven and
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: a half. We had New Orleans plus one and a half.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: We are two and three on the day. Our last
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: bet in Denver plus five and a half, our last
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: out New England minus two and a half. This was
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a weird, weird, freaking day. And let me just say this, Okay,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I want to point something out. On Thursday when we locked.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: We liked the Texans, we liked the Pats, the Saints Cleveland,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: we liked Las Vegas, we liked Denver, and we liked
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the Bucks. So we had four teams that we really
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: really liked that we were ready to roll with on Thursday.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: And somehow only a couple of those made it in
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: and the rest were flyers, which was unreal. What happened
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: to us? Let's start with Houston, Houston plus seven and
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: a half. Never in question. You got that right, You
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: got that right?
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: So got that live.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: We thought, we thought the Jags could not compete. We
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: thought the Jags way overrated. Talk about CJ. Shroud because
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: you had been on CJ. Stroud for more than a
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: week saying he's the best rookie quarterback in today. I
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: thought he looked he kind of looked extraordinary. He made
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence look like he was regressing.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty pretty impressive game by CJ. But it was
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: definitely just Trevor Lawrence meltdown. Like as much as I
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: want to take credit for, you know, he did make
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: some good throws.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: CJ.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: And Houston's offense did look good. That was all Trevor Lawrence.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: I mean that they're the secondary is terribly banged up
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: for Houston and the Jaguars could not move the ball.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: So yeah, every day, even though Tennessee lost, I still
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: am still feeling pretty good about our divisional vet on Tennessee.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: But the Houston stuff's weird, like they're just that team
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: no matter how bad or how good the Jaguars are,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: it seems like they own the Jaguars. So happy we
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: stayed away from them. Survivor Jaguars did take a hard
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: look at that number, and yeah, like I know, we
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: were scared off because we had both got nine and
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: a half and ten on this number with Houston, but
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: even at seven and a half, we were just like,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: this is too good of a number, like such a
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: key number, seven and a half, and it's such a
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: good matchup. Yeah, Luckily we didn't talk ourselves out of
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: that one, one of the.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Few that we didn't talk ourselves out of. The Jacks
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: have not been good all season, and they made C. J.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Stroud like they looking back, you know, you can always
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: do the transitive property right, and you sort of can
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: can have some twenty twenty hindsight. That game against the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Colts turns out they were incredibly lucky. The Colts might
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: be much better than we thought they were. That game
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: against the Chiefs turns out they probably should have lost
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: thirty four to nine or whatever it was, because the
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Chiefs had four hundred yards in the game and you know,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: average six yards per play. And then we saw what
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: they did today against the Bears, which is still you know,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: a high school defense. But J. Stroud C J. Stroud
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: had to play I don't know if you saw this play,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: if you were able to see this, during their second
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: scoring drive, everybody was covered. They were deep in Jaguars territory.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: He had a wide open field and it almost looked
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: like it looked like he was jogging, and not in
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: a lackadaisical way, but sort of I know what I
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: have in front of me, let me keep my eyes downfield,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I know what my options are. I'm gonna make the
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: right move. It was a very veteran, savvy in control
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: of the offense, understanding what the defense is giving in
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: front of him move and I just was I was
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: incredibly impressed.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's as good.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: So my biggest takeaway from like in that game was glad,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: we bet it's TJ's good.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: But like you just said, something's wrong with Trevor Lawrence.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: So that's something we'll definitely be talking about this upcoming week.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: In the look aheadline, the Jags were four and a
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: half point underdogs. I believe at with Pittsburgh visiting in
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: week four, I need to check and make sure that
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: line is holding up here at bet three sixty five,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: give me one second here they are now three point Nope,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: that's Houston. I met Houston, not the Jacks. Houston is
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: a three point dog at home against the Steelers. I
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: don't know if We'll probably want to wait and see
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: what happens with the game tonight.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: But I'm already gonna grab it, all right.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well we'll put that in there. I'm gonna grab.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Even if Pittsburgh wins, this might move to three and
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: a half, but this just feels like a nice number
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: for this Houston team at home.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Yep. Look, they're gonna have momentum for sure, all right,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Houston plus three, We'll talk to you.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, even though it's a nice letdown spot after a
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: big divisional win, we're still taking. It's a home dog like,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: that's a good number for a team that's not as
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: bad as they are publicly perceived.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: New Orleans plus one and five plus one and a half.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: That was our other win today. This was a last
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: minute surprise entry, and we only did this because we
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: got confirmation while you and I were on the phone
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: that David Baktiari left tackle, Christian Watson, best wide receiver
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: j R. Alexander best cornerback, and Aaron Jones best running
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: back would be out. The Saints had moved from plus
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: one and a half to a short favorite, so the
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: contest was giving us a better number, so we didn't
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: hesitate and like it was the right play. We got
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: very lucky after Janis came in and that the Packers
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: decided to play the analytics play and when they were
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: down go for two to go eighteen seventeen. So we
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: don't have to have the field goal and play because
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: we probably would have lost. We probably would have lost
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: by a point and a half.
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: Well, it's a sale of time. It's crazy how sharp
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: the books are.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: And that's why we get so hung up on numbers
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: sometimes because all these numbers have a reason. There's all
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: like we talk all the time, all these models. You're
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: just you're simulating the game ten thousand times and you're
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: trying to predict the most likely outcome for ten thousand
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: times the game's played. And what a number of lands
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: like that, Like Chad, it's my favorite thing, Like a
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: landed right on one and a half. Who knows how
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: that game would have went if their card stayed in it,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: But everything changed. They went from me able to drive
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: the field get first downs to a seventeen to three
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: lead just disappeared as soon as.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: He went out.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot of props to Jordan Love. Guy
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: was lost for three quarters and he found in the
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter. Felt very lucky to cover that number, Chad,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: so thankfully I bet it all week at two and
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: one and a half. So I mean, unless you bet
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: it literally right before kickoff, you got screwed. But I
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: would say most people that listened to us they got
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: the number earlier in the week, so that was a
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: good one.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: By the way, the Seahawks Panthers game is not quite
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: over yet, so if Evan or don't.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Do it too, I don't even want to know. I
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: know mathematically it's not dead by the percentages, but it's over.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: It's over, so real, all right, Matt Mitchell just told
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: us it's officially over. All right, great, fantastic? Uh do
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: we need like? Jordan Love was not very good today,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: but at the end of the game when they needed
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: to get some plays, he was a baller and he
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: made a great back shoulder throw in the end zone
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: to Romeo Dobbs, who made some incredible catches today. Yea,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: including like a shoe string fingertip back tip of the
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: ball catch that barely kept it off the ground. Do
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: we have to have a conversation about Jordan Love?
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: No, I still think it's exciting. If you had bet
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: them before the season to win this division. A lot
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: of pros did. It's it's there for them, Like they're
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: right on the line with the Lions, Like the lines
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: are good, but they have a lot of weaknesses. The
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: Packers are good, but they have some big weaknesses. And
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love is inconsistent. Like you saw there's a couple
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: of throws he missed that were deep. Our guys were
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: wide open. Laflour is a great schemer, Like that's a lot.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: What I'm taking out of this is Aaron Rodgers is
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: really talented, but Lafleur definitely was helping him along the way.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: And he keeps putting Jordan Love in the best position.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I still have no idea if this guy
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: is going to be a starter in this league, but
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: I can tell you he's He's proven a lot to
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: me of his never giving up. Like even last week
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: he talked about he was making throws when he was
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: getting hit, and I was like, that was a big
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: deal with me. Like a lot of these guys after
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: they get a couple of hits, they get a little timid,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: they get a little scared. They turned to Zach Wilson,
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: like guy you've seen who's taking these hits, and now
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: he's a little timid.
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: He stands in there.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: So yeah, gotta be excited if you're a green Bay
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Packer fan, but still one of those teams that like,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know what they are, Like, I don't know
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: green Bay is. I think they're They're better than what
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: I felt they were going to be head into the season,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: but I still have a lot of questions about green Bay.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: There's Jordan Love become a Favorites Film Room candidate.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: It's a possibility, It's definitely a possibility.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Everyone go to YouTube check out the YouTube only Favorites
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: film Room video that Simon and I do in which
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: we look at the All twenty two and we break
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: down a couple of plays from games that we bet
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: on from the weekend that are making us think about
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: how we might want to bet that team going forward.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: All Right, for the first time, Simon, since December thirtieth,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, we had three upsets of over a touchdown
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: on the same day in the NFL. Those teams were
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts, and they were the Cardinals.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Somehow we only had the Texans, and like we have
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: made a living literally off of betting these huge underdogs
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: in these spots. Let's talk about Atlanta plus three and
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: a half. The first thing that happened when you and
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I got on this car was how did Atlanta end
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: up as our final five? Boggling my mind?
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Hey, won't you by another somebody?
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Somebody? When this game opened at five and a half
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: last week on Sunday night, I'm like, I love this bet.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: You're like, it's fishy. I don't like it. It's stinks,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I know, and your instincts. Your instincts are right on.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I think what happened was.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: Even all week we talked about taking the lines too. Yeah, yeah,
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: it's like ezy.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I kept waiting, like I was waiting for that number
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: to get to three, and like I just never pulled
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: the trigger on it. And I'm like, I honestly, I
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: feel like we suffered from a lot of wise guys
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: buying in uh. And then the only note I have
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: is and this is not blaming it on you at all,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: because I jumped right in.
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: No, No, it's definitely my fault. No.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: No, The only note I have is you saying I
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: feel like this is a field goal game. It's a
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: really important hook. I think we got to take it,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: and like, this is the problem. I think we need
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: to have Mitchell on the call. You said this on
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Sundays because I don't know if we're going too fast
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: or what. But in my head, I'm like, yeah, we
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: got to do it, you know. Yeah, for seven straight days,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: I'd been like, I'm not taking Atlanta.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: No, it's my fault. Like we even said it before
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: we hung up. Who was our biggest bet and both
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: of us said the Patriots And we didn't have the
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: Patriots in there. It doesn't make sense. So I'm not
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: gonna start panicking yet. We're only one below five hundred,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: but those little wins losses these add up at the
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: end of the season, Like that's such a big miss
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: where we both love the Patriots. We barely either of
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: us had barely any money in Atlanta, and.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: I don't know how they ended up.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: It was such a stupid moment, and yeah, I didn't
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: even think about it. Then once the game's kicked off,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: I was like, holy shit, I have to cheer for
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Atlanta in this spot. It was one of those where
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: like I was just how the hell do we end up?
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: But it's definitely my fault. Yeah, No, I take full
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: blame because I think it was one of those you're
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: going through the numbers of each team and when they
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: hit that number, I was like, that's a good that's
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: fair value for that Falcons team. And no, everything we
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: said about them is true. That kid Desmond Rider is
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: not a quarterback. He's terrible, so terrible. Yeah, so instant regret,
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: but that's again we're about to talk to Denver game.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: I don't regret the Denver that much, but Atlanta is
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: totally on me, Like that was such a stupid bet
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Dorman and I was in there, had barely bet today,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: hated it all week, and who knows what happened there?
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I definitely hate those moments I did it.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Not only did we have barely any money on it,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I had zero dollars on it.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: I had yeah, I probably had a thousand, Like I
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: had two bets on it, so I had nothing on it.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: Bizarre what happened there?
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: All right, Denver plus five and a half. Look, we
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: love this game all week. We love Sean Payton as
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a dog. We thought there was deflation on the Broncos,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: we thought there was inflation on Miami. There's that Week
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: three stat about teams that were going home for the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: first time in the season as favorites are horrible against
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: the spread. And yet, and yet I can this one.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I know exactly what happened because we hesitated and I
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: wrote this down. I read the number. We said it
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: was five and a half. Your response was classic. You
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: were like, it's like you had never heard this before.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: You were like, fuck, is it those bastards? And then
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: we like we were off of Denver. We were like
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: completely off of Denver. We were not going to play it. No,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: we were all in a New England. And then right
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: before I put the picks in, I think Nick Giffen,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: who we love and we respect, he might have he
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: might have tracked something in the app that referenced the
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: luck rankings and the fact that Denver has been the
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: unluckiest team and sort of the best opportunity this week
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: in the luck rankings, which by the way, went like
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: seven and four today or something like that. So it's
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: still a winning play, it's an extraordinarily winning play, but
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: this was one that like, we both love the luck
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: ranking so much, you were like, oh shit, Nick even
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: just put this in as a luck ranking thing and
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: we're like, oh, we got to play it.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: So what he put in there in this spot in
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: their luck rankings teams with this big a discrepancy, it's
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: twelve and one the road team on the spread as
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: a dog, So.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Now it's twelve and two.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, people, I got a statue through
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: There's it's impossible to model this Miami team.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: They're the glitch and the matrix Like that was a
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: good spot, you always play it.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: I will never be able to predict an offense putting
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: up seventy points. And the biggest takeaway from it is
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: I have to make us stay away, even though whoever
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: plays Miami next week the Bills is such a great
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: spot to take the Bills, but I can't let us
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: do it. Man, Like, these Miami fans have been relentless,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: and I have to keep reminding them I was the
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: only one that believed this Miami team last year into
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: a I.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: Was a year or two early.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Like, I have a lot of regrets bending against them
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: these past three weeks. I keep losing money and I
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: keep losing a lot of it. And yeah, Miami is
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: definitely my Krypton nine team. This year, Like I don't
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: got to read on them, Like I couldn't believe how
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: good they were without Wattle today, Like I thought the
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Wattle thing was going to be a shift for their
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: offense to do because it would be easy. It's like, oh,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: you just focused on Tyreek Hill make to a past
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: the other guys, right, that was the whole goal. I
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: think first play it was like a middle of the
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: field pass to Tyreek and he just took it all
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: the way for a touchdown. And it's like, oh, they
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: just have no one that can keep up with him,
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Like that's It's not like the Patriots who had a
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: guy they could stick on them. So yeah, Miami, we
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: never see anything like this before. Like this offense is
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: clicking in every way. So definitely got to go back
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: to the drawing board on them.
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: Like I don't know, I think I had empower rated AFC.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe five or six and still don't think they can
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: stick with the Chiefs.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: But them and the Bills this.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: Week, that's going to be a major deciding factor for
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: me going forward, like whoever comes out of this game,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: because both of them to me are still I.
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: Still got the Bills above them.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: But man, look Miami right now is good like that,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: everything about that.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: I can't wait to watch the All twenty two.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Every play they called was a smart play, Like it's crazy, Chad,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: how it's just all coming together for this Miami team.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if there's a fan base
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: out there more excited for their team. Miami looks the
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: part like who's going to stop this team? It's crazy,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Like I can't believe how bad of I bet that
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: was so luckily quick death. I think it was thirty five,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: like thirteen and a half brutal, brutal bet.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Right now, the Bills are two and a half point
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: favorites at home against Miami.
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: Holy shit, I know.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: I know they are begging you right now, begging you.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Done a little bit, yeah, because they know the public's
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: gonna bell over the Dolphins. They just got seventy points.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm gonna fire away on that Bills right now.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Dude, I was in my car for three I.
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: Can't do it. What am I doing?
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna phone them all the pattern again. I'm not
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: doing it, just staying away from it.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Jesus, Oh my god, look on your face. That was
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: our stick.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because I just said all that, like, I have
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: to stick true to it. I can't this Miami is
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: talking about I'm going broke.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: Betting against Miami.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: Here they're killing me, and I'm going to tell you
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: how much I'm down on Miami.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: This is why it's so interesting. You do this professionally.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: I have been in this business for twenty something years,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: and yet when it comes time to make the bet,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: it's like you can short circuit a little bit, like
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: you see something and like you immediately forget everything you
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: had just said. And we're like, you know, seasoned at this.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: It's not easy. It's not easy.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Here's that's that's just a nice number of the bills
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: goes at home under three.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not doing it, but it's an auto
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: play Listen.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: If you're gonna lose, lose big in a record breaking game.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Also also, if there's any solace here, If there's any solace,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Tyreek Koll is still in play to win the reception's
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: yarded reception yardish title and we bet him at nine
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: to one before the season started. Okay, the last game
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: that we lost was Carolina. We had him a plus
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: five and a half. Again, another surprise bet for me.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: And like when Andy Dalton was good and Frank Reich
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: was decent, we still didn't like betting on them. So
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, like Frank Reich turns out isn't
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: very good and Andy Dalton is like hobbled and confused,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: and every other throw is looks like it's on purpose
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: going out of bounds. And yet we decided today was
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: the day we're gonna bar you. We're gonna but we're
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: gonna back Carolina on the on the road.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Andy Dalton threw for three hundred and sixty yards and
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: two touchdowns, no interceptions.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: Check yeah.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Andy Dalton is also like nearly a top twenty all
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: time yardage passing passing yardage leader in the NFL. Doesn't
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: mean I ever want to bet on him.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: I don't blame him. I mean, you put up twenty
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: seven points that that should have got us to cover.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: It's just a defense. They were They looked pretty good
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: against the Saints, and they totally laid down in this game.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: And uh yeah, I had a great first half and
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: then second half they give up twenty five points. So
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: that was the difference. It's just the defense didn't show up.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Andy Dalton did. I thought the offense played well, but yeah,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: you give up thirty seven points and you have Andy
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Dalton as your quarterback, you're gonna lose, lose that game
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: and not cover, so sucks. I thought that was like
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: a good number. But yeah, you're right. Carolina is terrible.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: But that's another team like I like betting them, Like,
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: even though they were terrible this week, there's little things
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: of their team where it's like they're just missing a
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: couple of things here and there.
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: But I wouldn't. I wouldn't.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe I will say away if it's Bryce Hunger as
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: a quarterback when Andy Dolan's are quarterback. I thought their
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: offense played well. It's just their defense was atrocious today.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: You just can't quit the red rifle? How did so?
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: We didn't end up with Cleveland? Even though yeah it
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: was a bad mess. What happened there?
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: Why? Why?
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: It's like, I don't know, did you say the game?
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: I didn't even pop up on my radar.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I think it were you know what I think the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: problem was? It was three and a half.
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but I didn't even care.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: I've been betting at three and a half all week,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know what happened there? And the
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Patriots are the worst one. Like, I can't I can't
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: believe we didn't have that in. I think they won
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: by five. I'm not positive, yep, but it was a
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: number where like there was a little sweat because I
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: think they were only three. At one point, I was like, Okay,
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: this is why I hate myself for betting this number.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: And then they got a safety and it's just like
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: it's Zach Wilson that was never really in fear.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that's what I mean.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: I take the full blame because I don't know how
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: the hell we had a land in and not the Patriots,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: like that should have been three and two. Week Yeah,
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: fucking two and three is brutal, but yeah, one below
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: five hundred.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: We'll get it back next te Thursday.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: On Thursday, I'll remind people that of our final seven,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: five included winners from the day New England, Houston, New Orleans,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and the Pats and the two other games that
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: were on the list, the Raiders and the Box. Happened happened.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Yet no, it was bad.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, what happened? We completely short circuited.
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: And now I'm glad to have you.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: I think I just had too many voices in my
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: ear down there.
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: So well, so you know what, I'm happy.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: To say that. I'm so glad you say that, because
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: I do. I do want to ask you a question.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Last week, at this time, the Bills were six point
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: favorites against the Commanders, and you and I agreed, we
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: liked the Bills at that number. I bet the Bills,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: and then throughout the week. My biggest bet this week
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: was the Bills. And we talked about this on Tuesday,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: and we talked about this on Thursday. But at some
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: point during the week, the Wise Guys came in on Washington.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: You did your favorite film session on Sam Howell and
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: it was a great session, and I feel like the
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Wise Guys were whispering something in your ear that made
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: you change your mind. Yeah, out the Commanders.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I knew a really smart group on the Commanders,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: and it's people's opinions I trust. And you know I
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: had a different opinion on the game, but I agreed
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: with him. I thought Sam looked better and he turned
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: back into a pumpkin today once again. No one can
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: model that like you just don't know when these things
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: are going to happen. So yeah, bad bit by them,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: but that you know, that was never gave me in
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: our contest luckily, I think it was five and a
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: half and you were trying to get me on the Bills. Yeah,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: and I wanted to get there, but it was just like,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: you know, there's certain people I respect where it's like
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: I can't go against them, like they know what they're
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: looking at and they were dead wrong, like total meltdown
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: by Washington. The Commanders Bills dominated. I think it was
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: like sixteen nothing and a half just turnovers. They had
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: tons ton of turn them over from Sam.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: So yeah, good read by you.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: You're on that one and the culture were on which
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: I was on the other side of, like thought the
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Ravens was a good spot Minshew on the road. Colts
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: were in that game from the get go, like stupid
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: turnovers by the Ravens, every little thing, and yeah, they
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: deserved that win, the Colts. So, like you said, three
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: three dogs of seven or more by seven or more
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: one outright today and we only had one of them
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: that that hurt.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: And that's not even how we play, Like, that's not
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: our game. Our game is to play the big dogs
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: and the ugly games that really scare us and we
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: played we made we like, we just made bad decisions today.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: We had like the week one. Week one, we made
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: good decisions and we had some bad beats. Week three,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: we just made bad decisions. And we had every game
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: we we just made the wrong choices in the moment.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just mad about the ones we left out
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: because it's hard to find winners. And we had a
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: couple that we had really nailed, like in the games
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: how they are going to go?
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: And I don't know how I missed it.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what, Simon, we can still make good choices.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: We can make Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: the NFL part of your game day, Simon, what's the
• 27:13
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• 27:19
  Speaker 3: The whole pie?
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: The whole pie? Order online during our Pizza Pizza pre
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: game one hour before NFL games and get ready for
• 27:27
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• 27:30
  Speaker 1: or pick the toppings you crave. Simon, if I turned
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: into a Little Caesar's Pizza, would you actually eat me?
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: There's only one answer. There's one answer. The answer is yes, Simon. However,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: you order your Little Caesars. You win. And speaking of winning,
• 27:50
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• 27:54
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• 27:56
  Speaker 1: slices during the tastiest hour before off. All right, just
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: a reminder, the foxhole was New England minus two and
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: a half. We didn't bother to put it in, even
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: though the line wasn't two and a half. In the contest,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: the Big Balls was Cleveland minus three and a half.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: We didn't put it in even though.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: The line was three and a Oh god, in the contest,
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: what the actual fuck? The executive decision was Denver plus seven.
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: If I'm gonna lose, I wanted to to be ugly.
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: The Simon says, still TBD.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: That was the Uh. That's Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus five
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: and a half against Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. Ron
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Robin not a pretty weak Washington Nope, Denver Nope, Tampa
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Bay TBD, New Orleans nope, Houston, Houston. That's pretty good.
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the New Orleans once sucked.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: That sucked. That totally sucked. Because if that wins in
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: we got Tampa Bay tomorrow night. All of a sudden,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: it's three and two in the money line round robin
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Parlam instead of you know what it is now all
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: right for those who are joining us live right now,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: The Las Vegas Raiders are currently I think minus three
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: three point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This line's been steaming.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: It opened at one and a half. At this time
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: last week, we said take the Raiders plus one and
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: a half. It is now Raiders minus three. Is this
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: a breaking point for you, Simon? I don't play the
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Raiders at this point because I think the line is
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: just steamed too far. Too much history of teams when
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: they go from being the underdog to the favorite not covering,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: and the Raiders are one of those teams. When they're
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: playing their first home game in Week three, it's not
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: a good scenario for them. So I only like them
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: as an underdog or a slight small favorite like within
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: the three.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Oh see, I took them first half. But if you
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: don't want to take on first half on the spread,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: I like the under. Chris likes the under primetime unders
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: or you know historically they're good to take. So that's
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: one of those numbers where I know it's come down
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: from forty four and a half to forty three and
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: a half. I still think that's a nice number. So yeah,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: if you want some action in this game, I like
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Raiders first half in the under.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: By the way, as we speak, there are more and
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: more props being loaded by our experts into the Action
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Network apps. I would remind everybody go check it out.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: I'm getting alerts for some props right now. What is
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: our Monday Night football? Lean fairly certain anyone listening to
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: this podcast should know it by now because the wise guys,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: including us, it've been on one side all week. Simon
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: tell people what that.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: Is, Tampa.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: And still like the Rams if you're scared off of
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: the number, because come so low, I get it. The
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Rams are usually in this spot. I take the Bengals
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: because the Bengals are at home oh and two oh
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: in too, ats like it's a good spot for them.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: But the Joe Burrow stuff just makes me scared, like
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: people really thought he wasn't going to play, and we
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: still don't know one hundred percent if he's going to play,
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: so the books don't know what to do if he
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: does get clear. I think this moves up to minus three.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: So that's why if you want to wait on the rams.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: I get it, but yeah, if you're looking for something
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: to bet right now, we did take Tampa and yeah,
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: I think Sean gave out Tampa's under right, so another problem.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: And convinced me earlier today Raybaund liked the Raiders Steelers
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: under tonight and Sean Corner like the under tomorrow. Simon,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: did you know the fastest growing ticketing app in the
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: United States is our sponsor, game Time. I love Game
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  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One because they sponsor this show.
• 31:50
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• 32:38
  Speaker 1: talked a little bit about some early leans. Let's go
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: to the best three, six five app right now, see
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: what some of the lines are. Not all lines are
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: posted yet because games are just ending, but certainly we
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: looked at Houston plus three at home against the Steelers.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: We like that number. We talked about the Bills minus
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: two and a half at home against against the Miami Dolphins.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Oh good lord.
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this week, this week's really tough, Like a lot
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: of these a lot of these lines are hanging, you know,
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: the book themselves don't really know.
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: What to do with some of these lines where you.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Know, normally certain teams get certain advantages because they're at home,
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: but if you're just going through, one that really jumps
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: out Cleveland right now is minus one and a half
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: against the Ravens.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: Yeap, That's exactly the one I was. That's exactly the
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: one I looked at.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so we'll grab the Ravens as a dog or
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: are you thinking Browns?
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Probably Ravens is a dog, That's what I'm thinking.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Like, Ravens played terribly Browns had the best game of
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: their season. Well, who knows, maybe we need to revisit
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: this Browns thing of the Browns at home are juggernaut
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: because they dominated the Bengals and then today Tennessee they
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: dominated them like they were a different class.
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: So, just to me, that's an interesting number though, i'd.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: Make this game of pick it's it's kind of wild
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: that the Ravens are plus one and a half. You
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: know another game that jumps out, but it's in London,
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: so I won't touch it is that Falcons Jaguars game,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: like Atlanta plus three. It's tempting because the Jaguars do
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: look broken, but me and Chad we try to stay
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: away from betting these London games.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: We had a bad experience with it.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: It's also just like these two teams right now, there's
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: no there's no advantage there.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: I would say there is Atlanta, Like I don't know
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: who was gonna be in Atlanta. I feel like everyone's
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: gonna jump off because it's what we just saw. Ritter
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: is terrible, terrible, He's terrible. I'm shocked your Bears team
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: how far they've fallen. They are a plus two and
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: a half dog at home, against against Denver, Like, that's
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: another line we're probably gonna have to take. I'm gonna
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: wait because I think we might be able to get
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: three here, because I'm getting it's plus two and a
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: half plus one hundred right now for the Bears.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: So I'll just wait.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: I won't make any Runners go hit that yet because
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: to me, I'll just wait to get the three this week.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: That's definitely an interesting game. Total train wreck though with
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: the Bears. I mean that they could be one of
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: those teams that, like their whole season is just a disaster.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: We even talked this week all their distractions, and they
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: came out and laid the biggest egg of eggs.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: There was no fight in that team, no at all.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: I mean it was truly from the second the game started,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: they were on their heels, backpedaling wide open spaces. It
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: was cool that Taylor Swift was at the game, though.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: I oh, hold my opinion on Taylor Swift. I don't
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: want to get yelled.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: At, Oh my good dude, all right, Taylor Swift.
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: I feel like Americans don't know what good music is.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: You could draw a line Shakespeare to Dickens, to Twain
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: to Springsteen to takeo. That's how good of a writer
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: she is. She is that good of a writer.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: I have lived by a philosophy that if I meet
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: someone they tell me they're a huge Taylor Swift fan,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: it lets me know all I need to know about
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: that person. And I think many people out there know
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: what I'm talking about.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe he'll tell me off air, because now I want
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: to know, But I don't want to know Taylor.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Taylor Swift fans, like swifties are psychos. Like if I
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: meet someone they tell me they are swifty, I immediately
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: I go, oh, I have to go talk to that
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: person over there. I just get out of the conversation.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: By the way, you can appreciate how great she is
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: and how she manages her business and the songwriting without
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: feeling like you're a swiftye.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: That's fair. She's just not my cup of tea.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: I like Florence, I like Adel I like British singers.
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: You know, I like all them too.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: All right, but let's get back to the games. Let's see.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: These are tough lines, brother, Like I'm trying to I'm
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: trying to find us.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: Some good value. But like a lot of these.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Are weird numbers, like Are you people going to listen
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: to me and take the Panthers plus three against Minnesota?
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: Probably not, But that is a good number against Kirk Cousins,
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: who's a train wreck right now. Yeah, Like like last
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: week I had like two or three games that really
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: jumped out, and this week, like I kind of need
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: to just get over and pull the trigger where it's
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: like Washington's plus seven right now against the Eagles, that's
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: a good number. Arizona's fourteen and a half against the
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers. Yes, that's a good number. Like there's
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: a couple of big numbers here. New England plus seven,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: I guess, hold on, that's a good number.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: The game that I want to talk about was New
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: England plus seven. Let's talk about Is that that feels
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: a little high to me? Yeah, Although I am really
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: worried about Mac Jones, Like I don't think any offense
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: that is created around Mac Jones is going to put
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: him in a position to succeed. He's not very good.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: He's just not Are you good?
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: Dude?
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: He played the Eagles, then Miami and then just played
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: in a tsunami against the Jets. It's all fair what
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: you're saying, but that's a lot of points for a
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Cowboys theme that I think they can be schemed up,
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: like we just saw Arizona out scheme this Cowboys offense.
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: That's just a shocking number.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: So again, I'm not firing away on this because I
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: do want to run these through my model. But like
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Arizona the pate, like Arizona fourteen and a half, that's crazy,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: But this is what it's going to be. Like I
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: think Evan joked about it earlier today, like they're begging
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: people to bet Arizona. No one was betting on, Like
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: they couldn't get any any Arizona money. Every who, every parlay,
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: everything was tied to that Cowboys game. So yeah, we're
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: asking lightning to strike twice. Taking the Cardinals here after
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: a big win. They're three and oh ats.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I don't forget. Don't forget three and zero against the spread.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Twenty two percent of the tickets in all twenty two
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: percent or less of all tickets than was telling us
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: in all three games, which is insane. But don't forget.
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: That's why hotels are built, brother.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Right, don't forget Arizona this week at home. Next week
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: on the road against San Francisco, with a little bit
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: extra time. They're entirely different scenario betting of his big dogs.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: I just love they gave us fourteen and a half though,
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Like that's such a key number, and they're just they're saying, please,
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: anybody give us something against his foreign iris team in
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: case the Arizona gets blown out here. Yeah, that's that's
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: that's a big, big spread, Chat, And you know, there's
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: a couple of big spreads that I do, Like, I'm
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: not gonna like just jump on them right now. But
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs first, the Jets, Like we keep talking about
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: this Chiefs defense.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: They're good, man.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: They are has been all over the offensive backfield like
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: he is.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: And their linebacking corps is really good. Yeah, this this
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Chiefs team is for real. So I see the book
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: open them minus nine. I can see that gettingto minus
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: ten by the time we do a show Tuesday. It
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: just feels like everyone's gonna throw that into their teasers.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: Take the money line the Chiefs. That's that's another nice number.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: And so sadly that's our Sunday night game because this
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: is when Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be the quarterback
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: for the Jets.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Chat, I think.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: I think, I'm almost positive me and You're going to
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: end up on the Patriots this week. Like I just
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: if they're seven and a half, six and a half,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: how do we not take that number?
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: Their defense is so good.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're gonna bet the Patriots every single week.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: It's looking that way.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Here's the question, Well we remember to put them in
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: the contest every single week, That is the question. Right now?
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Our early leadings like, we're not we're not unloading. We're
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: not firing every bullet on these games. But Houston plus
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: three to me feels like the one, and I'm most
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: confident in pulling the trigger on Okay, Baltimore plus one
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: and a half, I'm more interested in probably seventy percent.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: I want to give in maybe an hour or two
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: tonight and do some legwork. New England plus seven, Arizona
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: fourteen and a half, Jets plus nine. I'm not quite
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: ready to unload there yet.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if people are looking for what favorites I have
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: bet so far. I took the Rams they were minus
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: one against this cold steam. Chad's definitely I'm on the
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: other side of Chad.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: Chads.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: I believe in this cold team. I'm still skeptical, even
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: though I took they're over headed end of the season.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: And another favorite I took a small bet on was
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: the Saints. The Saints or minus three right now, weird number.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know how they can hang that without knowing
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: who the quarterback is. So I think I feel like
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: they know something more than I do. So I'm just
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: gonna throw a little on this Saints minus three just
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: in case Tampa.
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: If they do get.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Blown out by this Eagles team, I could see this
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: number get up to four. So that's that's the first
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: game back for Kamar at home the Saints after such
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: a bad loss, even their defense, like this is a
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: good spot to back the Saints team at home in
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: a divisional game against a short week that the Bucks
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: will be on.
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: So yeah, if.
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: People want to know what favorites I like, I like
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs, like the Saints.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: I like the Rams all right. As a reminder, the
• 42:24
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