Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets NFL Week 3

Transcript

Best Bets NFL Week 3 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: am Shad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Today is our week three Thursday NFL episode. This is
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the episode where we're going to get feedback from the
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: wise guys who listen to the show. We're gonna narrow
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: down our bets to five. We are leaning towards in
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: our new totally free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: pro Football Pick Them contest, Plus we will talk Survivor,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: money line, Underdog, Round Robin Parlay, big balls, better the weekend,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: our Foxhole. That's right, you can still join the contest,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: make your picks, get your chance at all our fabulous
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: weekly and season long cash prizes in the big NFL
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Pick Them Contest. As our own pal, Colin Cowhert says.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: There's a sea of money out there.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: There's a sea of money out there. Just visit Favorites
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com. That's also where you can see
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: our five official picks when we lock them in before
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday. The contest drops your two lowest scores
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: once we get past Thanksgiving so if you haven't signed
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: up yet, don't worry. You're still good to go Favorites
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com. If you prefer using the award
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: winning Action Network app, you can also track all the
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: bets Simon and I lock in before kickoff Sunday by
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: following two accounts. Those are the Faves five and the
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. Now, let's bring in my co host, my companion,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: my capadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: Heat. Oh so waymen, Chad, how we doing, my guy?
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: Dude?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: We are freaking great. The Chicago Bears, which we're going
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: to get into, are falling apart in the span of
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: an hour. I feel really enthusiastic about this weekend. Slate
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: had a great couple of days in New York. How
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: are you feeling house things in ac you love in life?
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: It's good. No, I'm looking forward to getting out of here.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: This is my last day here making some bets tonight.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: I'll stay for the Thursday game and I'm heading back
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: towards Philly area. It's definitely while being back in the
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: sportsbrook world.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by bet
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: three sixty five.
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: BET three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: They believe that every sport should be epic, every touchdown,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: every game, every point, every play, from the moments that
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: See for yourself when you sign up today with Code
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Action and you'll get three hundred and sixty five dollars
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older. Must
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: be present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: If you or someone you know has a gambling problem
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: and wants help, call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or one eight hundred bets
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Also, Week three
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: is approaching, Simon, We're seeing opportunities all over the board.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Well that's not dilly dally. It's time for sharp calls.
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range, somebody saying,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: maybe what should do?
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: Man?
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: I wish i'd give another Thursday game. I wish the
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: pros were with us on this Giants game Chat but
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: I just haven't heard too many, you know, really sharp
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: groups coming in heavy on this. They've touched it, they've
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: touched the tenth and a half on the Giants team,
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: but it's way more split than people would believe. A
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: lot a lot of pros do like this fort nineers team.
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: They like them here in the short week. So yeah,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: last week Thursday was definitely the Pros versus Joe's the
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Pros all over that Vikings seven, six and a half six,
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: So not the same for this Thursday, but for the
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: Sunday slate, not too shocking. The games, I'll start with
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: the one that's shocked me the most, which is a
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: game I thought me and you would just stay away from.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: They love the Browns jet like every pro I've talked
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: to loves the Browns against this Tennessee team in the spot.
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: So that's a game we're definitely have to go through.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: I'm shocked by it, Like I get where they're coming from,
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: this Browns team, and I'll let down spot for Tennessee,
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: but I don't know. The three and a half is
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: just scaring me. So definitely a game we need to
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: talk about as that could be one of the you
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: know could be one of the favorites we take. Another
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: favorite they love this week is Vegas. We've seen this
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: number move from plus one and a half it's now
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: two and a half in a lot of books. Not
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: that shocking. Another line the pros love this week the Saints.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: I know a really smart group that came in heavy
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: on the Saints, and they came in heavy on Washington.
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: So these are two teams that they clearly believe in.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: And the last one is a game we already talked about,
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: which we'll talk again as the Bucks like. The pros
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: like the Bucks against this banged up Eagles secondary. Say
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: what you want about this Bucks team, we all know
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: they're not as good as our record stage right. They
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: played against a Vikings team I was due for aggression,
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: and they played against a Bears team that they haven't
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: won a game in like a year. So not that
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: shocking that the Bucks are two and zero and that
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: the Eagles are clearly a better team on paper. But
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: I think everyone's in agreement. All the pros are in agreement.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: The Eagles got a lot of injuries, and those injuries
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: in the secondary are a big deal against that Bucks team,
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: So not too shocking. Here and that they love the
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: dogs this week, but they like two favorites as well,
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: like the Vegas one. I'm shocked they still look at
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: it two and a half and that Browns minus three
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: and a half. The Pros are on it. So it
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: really I did think that the Pros would be on
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: Tennessee with the public, but it looks like that's just
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: a public dog this week, taking the Tennessee team up
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: plus three and a half.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna dig deeper on that game. I
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: think you know you and I we talked about this.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: We do the Favorite Film Room for YouTube only. We
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: went deep on that game when we did that yesterday.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: If you have not watched it, it's really cool. Simon
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: and I break down plays from the previous week that
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: impacted bets that we were on but also help us
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: make decisions about bets going forward. We looked at Sam
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Howell and the Commanders. The wise guys love the Commanders
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: this week against the Bills. And we looked at the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans O line, which we'll be having a very
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: hard time against. Miles Garrett and the Browns. Great stats
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: on how dominant the Browns defense has been. I want
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: to get much deeper into that game, because it is
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: really I think it's the most interesting game on the board,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: and we talked a lot about it on Tuesday.
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: Look kudos to you.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: By the way, I stupidly did not bet the Raiders
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: at plus one and a half. I have now bet
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: them at two and a half. Stucky in Raybund also
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: talked about the Raiders on the Action Network podcasts and
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: how bad this Pittsburgh team is. We'll dig a little
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: bit deeper into that one. But on Sunday you said
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: bet the Raiders at plus one and a half. So
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: oh man, we got so many games to talk about.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: The wise guys are in line with us in a
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: lot of these conversations. As a reminder, you can catch
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on you Tube. So
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Simon,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: we got to start narrowing down our games. We got
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: to get to our Foxhull, we got to get to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Survivor Big Balls Bet.
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: Of the Week. We're gonna start with the Bears at
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: plus twelve and a half.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: You mentioned this on Tuesday, yesterday afternoon, this team basically
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: started falling apart. The story heading into the afternoon was
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: justin Field saying he's robotic because of his coaches. Then
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator resigns, who already wasn't calling plays last week,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: resigns for health reasons. The rapid fire texts and alerts
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I got yesterday while I was in a very important
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: businessman met. I split my time between star talent and
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: extremely capable media executive, And in the middle of this
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: very important meeting where I'm talking high stakes, I got
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: my son texted me about breaking news on the defensive coordinator.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Then my friends are losing it about the defensive coordinator,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: texting me NonStop, and then I get news that Nathan
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Peterman was released. And my feeling on this is like,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: that's a smoke screen because the defense they're like, the
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Bears are such an incompetent.
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: Organization right now.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: They're like, if we make a roster move and release
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Nathan Peterman, people won't realize that our quarterback is calling
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: at our coaches in there work and that our defensive
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: coordinator is resigning. Nathan Peterman was picked back up today.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: By the way, dude, what the fuck with this team, man,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I know how I feel about emotionally. I said on Tuesday,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the Bears don't get enough credit for being a really
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: historically poorly run, incompetent organization, and it pains me to
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: say that. I know so many people in that organization
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: who are amazing. I feel like the organization itself is
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: handcuffed because of ownership.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: That's it.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I just think the McCaskey Hollas rain has been disastrous
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: since about nineteen sixty.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Football always stop starts at the top down right.
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: I feel like you go through any organization, it's like
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: you have to have all three. You have to have
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: an owner that knows their place and knows how to
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: hire the right people and put them in positions. Then
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: you have the GM, then the coach, then the quarterback,
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: and it feels like you guys have been lacking like
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: the most important things, which is the quarterback, the coach,
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: and the GM. And it's been for years now. I mean,
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: I know that all those stories yesterday was a lot
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: of just bs, right, all the rumors fly and everything
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: it turned out to be not true. But stuff that
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: was true was you had a quarterback that has the
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: worst winning percentage in football ever in fields as a starter,
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: bad mouthing his coaches, and you know, that's exactly what
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: you don't want to hear from a guy who was
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: missing open reads. Okay, that wasn't his coach's fault, that
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: was him, and that's just such It's something you just
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: don't want to do because that just shows weak, like
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: you're a weak person, like you're a weak mentally if
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: you're you're trying to push the blame on other people
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: instead of just owning up, which is what I think
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: all Bears fans want to hear, was him take onus
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: on himself and say that he has tough to improve.
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: That's how simple would have been, instead of throwing his
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: coaches under the bus. So I wanted to be on
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: the Bear's chat. I still might throw a little on them,
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: but I mean, how can you default anybody for taking
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: the chiefs here? Like the Bears seem like an absolute
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: train wreck, and you know it's it's rare a team
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: can have this much drama during the week and prepare
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: for the defending Super Bowl champions. So it is a
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: nightmarison air for Barrs fans. Staring O three in the face,
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: and not that it's a guarantee they're gonna be knowing three,
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: but it feels like they signed it this week. Just
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: being unfocused dealing with all this with the media. I mean,
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: how many other teams are dealing with all this in
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: the media this week? It feels like none. It feels
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: like it's just the Bear. So yeah, I feel bad
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: for you Chat and all Bears fans. It's just been
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: a train wreck this past season so much.
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: Do you know what's interesting? Simon?
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: You make such a good point about justin Field's response
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: to the poor Star. This was a leadership opportunity. This
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: was a chance for him to step up and say
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I own this. I'm going to be better, This team
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: is going to be better. I'm going to put them
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: on my back. And he immediately looked forward excuses.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: And got defensive.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: This is like the argument I have with my sixteen
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: year old when I call him out on something, and
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: like he immediately gets defensive and tries to deflect the blame,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: And I'm just like, dude, do you know how much
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: easier your life is and how much more respect you
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: get from people if you just admit the mistake and
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: you move on No one's going to hold over your head.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: They're just going to say, like, all right, he gets it.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I understand, let's move on to the next thing.
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: I don't.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean you're a bad person, but let's focus
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: on what's going wrong and I'll work together to make
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: it better. And I don't feel like that's happening in
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: the Bear's locker room right now. Here's a stat you
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: just mentioned, Justin Field's lowest career win percentage. This is
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: from JPA Football at JAS Football on Twitter, but JPA
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Football on Twitter as well. This will be the first
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: time in fifty three years with a QB with the
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: highest career win percentage and Patrick Mahomes plays the QB
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: with the lowest career win percentage. He also put a
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: nice little reminder the Bears opted to not draft Patrick
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Mahomes in twenty seventeen to trade up, as I used
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to remind people before Mitch Trubisky was traded.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: To trade up for Mitch true Bisky. So there we go.
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: We got that. That's the Bears talk right now.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: And even then, though even if they had drafted him,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: can you imagine him with your guys, Matt Naggie and
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: the coaching tree you had in Chicago and your offensive weapons.
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: It was like imagine going from Mahomes, going from Kelsey
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: and Tyree Hill to start your career to what the
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: Bears had. I just don't again, don't know if it
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: would have matter, if they would have drafted them. It's
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: just it's just all negative right now for the Bears.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: One last stat and then we're moving on to the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Texans and the Jags, which is a game that we
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: both love. When opponents score more than twenty points versus
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: a Justin Fields Bears team, they are eighteen and oh
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: straight up, all five Justin Field's wins have come with
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: opponents scoring twenty points or less. Bears are fucked, all right.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: This line, the Texans and the Jags. We circled this
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: game the other day. We talked about it when it
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: was eight and a half. The line has moved to
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Full disclosure, I missed the eight
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: and a half. I still better at seven and a
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: half because I know eight is becoming a key number.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: But I just decided I like the Texans did anything
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: more than a touchdown.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: In this game.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Some good trends that I stole from Chris Raybon in
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast the six Pack segment he does
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: with Stucky.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: How are you feeling about the Texans?
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: You said the other day c J Stroud has been
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: really good, And I looked at his stats after because
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: I was skeptical, and you're right, no interceptions, completing sixty
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: four percent of his pass, has a lot of yardage,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: garbage yardage, but still doing the job that's in front
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: of them.
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just again, I wasn't saying this guy is
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: like all world. It's just one of those where it's
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: nice to see he can make the throws. I mean,
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: you're a Barriers fan. Justin Field's whole life is in
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: garbage time. He's never hit a higher number than CJ's throw.
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: So it is one of those where you got to
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: make the throws just because you're getting a shell defense.
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: And this number actually touched ten at a couple of
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: books chat and the pro money did come in and
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: hit it down. I'm still seeing nine of a couple
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: of books. It's good value there. I mean, everyone's seen
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: the stat in his career. Trevor Lawrence is a favorite,
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: is zero to four. So I mean, what do we
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: do ats this guy? Doesn't cover as a favorite. It's
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: a big number, and I know everyone's keeps saying like
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: this is a good bounce back spot for the Jaguars.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: It's just there's little things that with this offense, I
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: have questions And even even if they do get a lead,
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: I think we'll always have a chance at a back
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: door here, Chad with this with this Texans offense, So
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: I'm not going crazy on this one. Yeah, I'm waiting
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: to see what's happening with their offensive line. Like they've
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: had major guys missing from that offensive line, which count
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: was supposed to play, and that's a big deal to me.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Like if he's back and they have someone to stop
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen coming off that edge, or you know, any
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: of these pass rushers of the Jaguars have, that's a
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: big deal. So as a QB that has been running
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: for his life, I'm excited to see what CJ looks
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: like with a good offensive line and his best off
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: offensive lineman out there. So, like Chad said, you can
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: still get the nine, you can still grab the eight
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: and a half. I just grab it now because I
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: do I do see it dropping down as we close
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: serit of game time, we're playing the number here and
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: this is a good number. Like I couldn't I could
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: not believe they got the ten at one point. Now
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: it makes sense it's going down towards eight seven and
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: a half, like that's where it should be.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I misspoke. I apologize. I was thinking about the Colts
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: and the Ravens. I got the Texans a plus nine
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: and a half the other day. It's still settling around
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: nine eight and a half. But this is a big
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: pros Joe's game, and you can see like a clear
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: discrepancy tickets on the Jag money on the Texans simon
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: this Also, we've talked about this, like we're making our
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: contest picks our five faves on Sunday at about eleven
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: forty five, after we do another bet three six five show.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: Convinced me on Sunday mornings at eleven that might.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Be too late because we could lock in some games
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: that we love right now at better numbers. When we're
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: seeing on Sunday with these lines changing, we got to
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: start thinking about some game theory here.
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't hate that.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: I don't hate that at all.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Another game, but right now, what would you say? I
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: would say, like I got the Texans a comfortable putting
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: in the five.
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just want to see what the offensive line is. Like,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: I'm not putting them in if they still have two
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: starters out on that offensive line, Like that's it's too
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: much to ask of a rookie quarterback with the offensive lineman.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: All Right, the Pats they touched three. Now it's down
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: to two and a half, which is interesting to me.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: I got it at two and a half. We talked
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: about it. We love Bill Belichick in this spot. Why
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: did it go to two and a half. Who's playing
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: the Jets?
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: The Pros? They just it's it's a home divisional dog
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: with a great defense. But I mean, you don't care.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: We will walk into this trap. We will trust the
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: numbers that Belichick against these quarterbacks who are terrible. Are
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: these are the games he wins? Like this this Patriot defense.
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: And if you're scared of this and you just want
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: to take the under, I totally get it. Thunder is
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: insanely low. It's like thirty seven and a half. Like
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: that's a tough player where I think it's just safe
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: for going with this Patriots team that I trust them
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: to put the points up, Like I see I see
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: ways for Mac to drive the field and get points
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: for me and with Zach Wilson. And how horrible that
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: Patriots off I mean that Jets offensive line is I
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: just don't see it. I mean, you can look at
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: the numbers right now through two games, them and Pittsburgh
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: are giving up the most pressure right now, there are
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: two teams at anytime they're playing against really good defensive lines. Chad, mean,
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: you're always gonna kind of be skewed to the other team.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: So it's a nice matchup for this Patriots team. It's
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: a must win, desperate team. They know they're staying zero
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: three in the face. So we could be walking to
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: the trap chat like we always say that when they
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: move it from three to two and a half and
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: they're letting you take the favorite. It's always a little scary.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: But I'll walk into I'll take this and I'll back
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: Belichick in the spot. So another team that we like
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: the favorite and the Pros do like the dog.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: We got screwed with this on the Browns in the
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: exact same situation with almost the exact same number, right, Yeah,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: better defense. Crazy quirky things happen in the NFL. I
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: feel like the Patriots have gotten unlucky in a couple
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: of games. In the luck rankings, they are the most
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: unlucky team after two weeks. We're playing the percentages from
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: a luck rankings point of view, and I trust that
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: as much as anything like that has become sort of
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: for me a huge factor when thinking about these games.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: The percentage of coverage for a luck for a team
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: that has been unlucky in this position is north of
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: sixty percent, So I'm not uncomfortable with this at all.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: I've marked it down past minus two and a half
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: as a near mortal locke for the contest.
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think people are just off of the
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: Belichick thing. I mean, I had two pros on me
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: yesterday and they were just bad mouthing them. I made
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: them come inside, I made them watch that Rams Patriots
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl, and it's just like, this is why Belichick's
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: one of the greatest coaches ever. He totally took away
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: everything McVeigh wanted to do on that offense, and I
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: think people just forget that because he did have Brady
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: was incredible, But this man defensively is so smart.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Denver, the Broncos O Denver Broncos touched seven for a
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: minute last week. This was our exec decision. By the way,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: we still owe people the foxhole. We still owe them
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: the big balls.
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: I don't know if you do.
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: You want to do Patriots of their foxhole?
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: I was thinking about that, yeah, because it.
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: Feels like it's going to be just in the public
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: on this one, Like no pros are jumping in this Foxhoila.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: All right, we're going to the fox.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: Hole, you know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: a foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: By the way, I'd love to have Bill Belichick in
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: my foxhole.
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: Me too, wouldn't you. Yeah, did you see this meme
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: going around Chad? It was like women asking their boyfriends
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: and their husbands how often they think of ancient Rome.
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it made.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: Me think of like, if someone came around, like how
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: often do you think of Bill Belichick, it'd probably be
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: like once or twice a week. The man's always on
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: my mind.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: He is always on my mind because I feel like
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: he's still some kind of Spengali even if like the
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: team isn't performing well and isn't making the playoffs, and
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: I think what he did last year with Joe Judge
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: and Matt Patricia was actually borderline like abusive from Mac Jones.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: I still think he's so good strategically because I think
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: it's all he thinks about me too. All Right, so
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: we're in the foxhole with Bill Belichick. Don't mind that
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: at all. We still owe with big balls. It's very
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: possible this next game is the big balls because Denver
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half, which was also our exec decision.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: I still love it. It's like becoming one of my
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: favorite players of the week.
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: I love it, but I'm definitely scared where like, I
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: don't know, talk to twenty pros and maybe three of
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: them for their group are putting big money on this
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: Denver side with us and a lot of guys who.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Those three pros are the most influential of the twenty
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: you spoke.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: To, right, I wish I was so, but no, they're definitely.
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: They're definitely not in the pecking order, but they are
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: really sharp guys, and I think they're coming from the
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: same standpoint of me, which is I think Russ is
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: way better than people are giving them credit for. This
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: starts of the season, and you know, Sean Payton, one
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: of the best coaches, one of the guys I really respect.
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: It really hasn't been his fault. It's been the defense
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: that's really let them down in this Denver team, and
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: they have the playbook now. They saw what the Patriots did,
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: and we're gonna see really fast if other teams start
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: implementing the same type of defensive style against this Miami offense,
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: which is we will let you dink and dunk all
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: the way downfield to it, but we're not letting you
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: get downfield waddle or tyre hill. So yeah, I love
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: this number for a bunch of different reasons, but the
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: biggest is we're just playing the market and we're buying
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: a team at their lowest point, an O and two
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: team that's oh and two against the spread playing against
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: the Miami team that's two and oh straight up in
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: two and oh against the spread and are just loved
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: by everyone. Like we already talked about it, and I
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: talked to a bookmaker yesterday. This is one of the
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: most money lined teased beat games of the week, this
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: Miami team. So always nice being a big need with
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: the books on this to every team. So I got
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: no issue making this one of our five if it's
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: still plus six and a half comes Sunday.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Cards plus twelve and a half from Evan Abrams. I
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: asked Evan this the other day, double digit underdogs the
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: past twenty years at home seventy two and fifty one
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: against the spread. But Evan tease me, and Evan's going
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: to come on later in the show. He also pointed
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: out Dak does very well against bad teams twenty six
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: twelve and two against the spread versus teams under or
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: five hundred. That's the second best mark in the past
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: twenty years, behind Tom Brady. He doesn't he's not one
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: of those guys who plays to the level of the competition.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: No, that's what I've had a bunch of arguments about
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: this game this week. A lot of guys who've been
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: riding this Cardinals team are they're skipping this one, and
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: they just think that Dallas is a juggernaut right now,
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: and that's a few teams playing at a higher level.
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: And I always argue this is kind of the spots
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: they let down. But it was pointing out to me
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: it's not that's at home against double digit dogs usually
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: on the road like this, they crush these teams like
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: there's no distractions, none of that. Where you can attack
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: this Dallas team is if you get the running game going,
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: you can move the ball in them. Like they don't
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: have the greatest run stuffers, but the rest of the
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: team has no weakness, Like you look at their defense
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: and they're just there are no real holes. And it's
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: gonna be a while before we really learn what their
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: weaknesses are because they don't play I think the forty
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: nin ers they play week five or week six, that's
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: their true litmus test for this Cowboys team. So one
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: of the games I was high on, I wanted to
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: take the car Rdinals here, but just from the lack
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: of you know, value on the line because I have
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: this at thirteen, So technically I should be on this
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: Cowboys team. I just can't get there, Like I really
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: can't get there on this number with them. But if
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: anyone out there wants to tease them or do any
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: of that stuff, I agree with it, Like get it
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: under seven. This this feels like a good number. So yeah,
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: if we're going who I think is gonna be upset,
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: Like you could get upset this week. We already talked
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: about the Jaguars, I could see being upset. We'll talk
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: about that Raven.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: We're gonna talk about another one.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one of these big dogs that I
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: just can't see pulling the upset. Like, there isn't a
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: scenario where I see the Cardinals doing it so just
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: because of the Dallas defense. Nothing because of the Dallas's offense,
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: but defensively, I just don't know if the Cardinals have
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: the weapons to really attack the weaknesses of this Dallas team.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: You know what I love, Simon. I love when you
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: and I aren't a bit of a mind meld and
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: we haven't spoken about the games that we're going to
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: talk about, but we are finding consensus amongst.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: The two of us, Like it's.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: You know, boken force. I feel like we're in that
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: kind of zone today.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: If I see you five days a week.
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: That's true.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: I also feel like we're in a zone when we
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: talk about the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: that's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsor the show. Two
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: pro and college games. I'm actually going to open game
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Time right now from the Action Network studios.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: Here in New York City. What am I seeing? Oh?
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: I can go see the New York Yankees tonight for
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: six dollars. I could see the New York Jets this weekend,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: play the New England Patriots and bet on them at
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half for eighty dollars. That is
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: some winning ticket searching. No matter where you live, download
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the Game Time app, get out and have some fun
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply again. Just download
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: the app and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Simon, I screwed up.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: I screwed up big time. On Sunday Night. We were
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: talking about the games in our Sunday Night podcast, which
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I love, and it's a hard podcast to do because
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: we are both exhausted and we've been through the ringer
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: at that point. But it's great to get our emotions
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: out and start thinking about the next games right.
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: We pinpointed a lot of games.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: One of the games we pinpointed was the Raiders as
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: one and a half point dogs against the Steelers at home.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: You're like, grab that right now? Of course, Like my
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: notes are freaking mess after that show, and so like
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: I go through and I grab some games and somehow
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I missed this one and sort of forgot about it.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Woke up this morning, I'm like, shit, this game's at
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: two and a half. And then I panicked at it.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I just want to get it before it
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: got to three, and it's going to get there. The
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: tickets are on the Steelers, the pros are on the Raiders.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: How badly should I feel that I didn't get the
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Raiders until two and a half.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a bad miss, but it happens all
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: the time. I'm exactly there with you where Sunday night.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: You know your mind's a little loopy. I'm lucky where
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: I'm making these bets during the games before even hop on,
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: and then we do hop on, I'm texting guys are
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: going to make more bets for me. So yeah, I
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: love that we got the value on that number. But
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: you always cut yourselfs in certain spots where I can
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: come back on the other side, like that Tennessee, I
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: got the four and a half and then when it
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: moved to three against Cleveland, I grabbed the three. And
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: it's like I got an ugly middle, but I really
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: want to Cleveland to win and cover, like that's where
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: most of my money is, even though I did a
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: small bet on Tennessee. So yeah, I wish i'd tell
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: people don't get married too much to what we're saying
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: on Sunday, Like we're just taking an early action and
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: trying to get the best of the number on certain games.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: And it's not always like this week where we got
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: the Rams, we beat the beat the number by three points,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: and now this Raiders game, we're beating this by three points,
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Like that's that's the dream scenario. So yeah, this Raiders game,
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: it's just all there for a Raiders bounce back spot.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: You're playing against a team you already talked about in
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh that their offense is literally one of the most
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: efficient offenses in awful part. Now it's it's them in
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: the Jets. They're one and two, and with Pittsburgh you
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: can say, well, they've played really hard defenses. Right, that
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: could be your that could be your reasoning for Wow,
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: it's been They started the season with Cleveland, I mean
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, and they played Cleveland, and now
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: they're playing this Raiders team that you expect them to
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: have better, you know, better stats against. Right, they'll better
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: run the ball, make some good passes here with Kenny Pickett,
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: but when you look up front, you know Max Crosby.
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: These are kind of the dream scenarios like this is.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: You know, if you if you want a great pass
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: rusher and you want them to go against Pittsburgh, this
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: is this is the dream scenario. So I hate that
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: it's getting to three for people. If you didn't get
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: to two and a half, I would grab it now
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: it's gone up so much. But I know people are
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: shock down with favorites We like this week, But that's
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: just how it is when're ryan the ups and downs
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: week the week. This is another home favorite I like
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: under a field goal. That's they are bad. They do
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: have some glaring weaknesses because they've had horrible drafts for
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: about six years on that Raiders team, but the superstars
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: they have, the studs they have, This is a great
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: matchup for them. I mean, Josh Jacobs, this just should
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: be one hundred and fifty yard rushing game for him.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo horrible against that Bills team, just absolutely horrible.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: It's because he had no run game, and like that's
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: what the Bill is new to take away. If you
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: take away the run game, Jimmy g all of it
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: on his shoulders. He struggles. Pittsburgh doesn't have anyone that
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: the Bills have to stop the run. So this one
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: chat is I'm actually honestly shocked to hear that Stucky
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: and Chris are on this one because they don't like
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: taking favorites either. But all the pros like this, like
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: this is just a pros versus Joe's game. We spot
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: it right away, but still take it at two and
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: a half. If it's three and a half comes Sunday
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: though for our contest, maybe we don't take this, but
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: at two and a half, I got to put it in.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: The run defense is terrible. We saw it against the
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Browns in that Monday night game. No, Cam Hayward I
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: think is impacting them huge, tremendously huge, huge, right because
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: Nick Chubb obviously, like before the injury. Sixty four yards
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: on ten carries. He might have had one hundred yards
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: and a touchdown in the first half if not for
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the injury.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: But then his backup ended up.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: While it wasn't like consistent yardage, he had a massive
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: play and he had over one hundred yards. And so
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: their run defense is truly, truly terrible. Here was a
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: stat I stole from Raybaun. One team in the NFL
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: this year has fewer red zone trips than the Chicago Bears,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: who have three. It's Pittsburgh with two.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're bad. Pathetic.
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: That is pathetic.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has thirty four rush yards before contact on offense
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. This is from Evan It's the fewest
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: in the NFL.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and their first round running back looks like a
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: total bust now three years later. So just just not
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: I mean Canada, everyone's putting to blame on him in
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: that offense. He is a terrible OC but just all around,
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: it's just bad right now in Pittsburgh.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they got bailed out by Deshaun Watson.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: They really did last week. All right, last week we
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: talked about the Bucks plus five and a half. It
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: was your signon says it's down to four and a half.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: You mentioned it in sharp calls. Do you still like
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: it at four and a half? Is it a contest
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: play at four and a half?
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, still like it? Still like it a four and
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: a half. It's definitely, though, one of the games where
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: you know it could go wrong for us pretty quick, Chad.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: If Baker turns back into a pumpkin, that's the fear
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: of taking this Bucks number here. But there's no reason
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: to believe he will. Like even when I go back
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: and watch the film, he's making the smart reads. He's
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: going through all the different reads and it's like, Okay,
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: Godwin's covered, let me take the next guy. Oh, Mike
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: Evans is covered. Let me let me look at my
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: check down like he's playing like the hope for the Browns.
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: Watson would play right. That's why they got rid of them.
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: They brought on Watson to have what Baker's doing now,
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: which is a guy who's making the easier reads, not
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: forcing it. And you know Eagles team, they're incredibly talented
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: all across the board, and they should be able to
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: beat this Bucks team. There's no doubt about it. But
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: I still have a lot of questions about the OC
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: and the defensive coordinator, like they're just there's just something
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: not right with his team, this Eagles team through two games,
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: and this would be one of the few times I
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: would say I could see them losing this game out right,
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: like if this was in a couple of weeks. So
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: there's no way I can see the Eagles losing this
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: game out right. There's just little things to believe that
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: something's missing right now with the Eagles team. And we
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: see all the time early in the season these teams
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: they just don't come out of the gate like they
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: were last year. And that's how it feels with the
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: Eagles team. So yeah, definitely definitely have the books around money,
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: lying around Robin and still like him at four and
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: Chud look, Simon, the super Bowl hangover is real, Like
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: it's not something that doesn't have any precedent, right, You
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: see it every year. We just saw the most recent
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: example was the Rams who completely fell off the ledge
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: after the Super Bowl.
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: And they and by the way, when they went to
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: the Super Bowl.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: With Jared Goff the next year, they weren't nearly as good.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: It happens, and you can see it with Jalen Hurts.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: I hate to say this, but there were things that
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson was doing when he was running on Monday
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: night that looked similar to what Jalen Hurts had done
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: the week before or earlier in the week on Thursday,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: where like he was getting around edge, he was hesitant,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: he was easily tackled at the ankles, He wasn't making
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: accurate throws, he wasn't decisive when he dropped back. Like
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: to me, that is him not yet feeling comfortable with
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the offensive play call and we're being in a groove
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: with the new offensive coordinator, so I get it. And look,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: with the Bucks, we've talked about this, is Baker a
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: serviceable to good quarterback if he has Chris Cotwin and
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans Like, that's a big difference which he's never had.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: He didn't have with the Rams, didn't have with the Panthers,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: barely had it with the Browns. Like when he had
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: it with the Browns, he had Amari Cooper.
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: He was not bad.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: I don't know if a Mark Cooper was there yet.
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: I think he came in the year after. But right,
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: I do agree with your sentiment though that he's never
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: had these kind of weapons and I was on those people.
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: I buried Baker like I left him for dead. I
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: thought Trash was gonna win this position. But yeah, Baker
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: is a resilient dude, Like you can't deny that. So yeah,
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: I love this spot for this Bucks team.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: All right, So two games that I want to talk
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: about before we get to the Titans and the Browns.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Give me your thoughts on Minnesota. I was a big
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Minnesota fan on Tuesday. It's still lingering around Minnesota.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: As a very short favorite.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: It's a little scary to me because it feels like
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: a trap, and maybe it is. But right now that
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: line hold on. I'm trying to see here. It's moved
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: up to one and a half. But it is a
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: pros Joe's game. Fifty six percent of the tickets on
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, sixty three percent of the money on Minnesota.
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: And yeah, I just don't know how anyone can model
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: this game, Like I just I don't know where you're
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: gonna find value in this game wherehereas the ball last
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: is probably gonna win, and no one knows what either
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: team is going to do in this game, Like it's
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: all the stats you see about Herbert he's been he's
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: doing things that have never happened before. He's been almost perfect,
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: and his team is zero and three in his last
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: three starts, Like the man can't play much better and
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: his team just can't win because they just their coach
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: is so bad. And it's the weirdest part is he's
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: a defensive mind, and when he first got there, their
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: defense was actually pretty good, and they just have gotten
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: worse every game he's coached them. Like, I don't know
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: what's happened, you know, with the Chargers defense, but it's
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: completely fallen off. So I just can't get there with
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: you on Minnesota Chat. It's just if I had to
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: see the future and say, what what team to be
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: zero and three is more likely it's Minnesota. They just
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: the Chargers have a better team all around compared to Minnesota.
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: They have guys on defense who can't get stops. On
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: the Chargers. I don't know anyone on the Vikings defense
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: I can make a stop or make a big play,
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: like I just I'm not seeing it with that Vikings defense.
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think this is one of the highest
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: highest totals of the week. Fifty four. I threw a
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: lit on the over and that was really it for
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: me on this game chat. It's just I see there
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: have been a lot of points and I just have
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: no read on either of these teams and no faith
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: in either of these teams to win a game. It's
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: just both both of them have so much any question
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: marks for me right now. It's crazy to think though
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: one of these guys are going to be owing three.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: So I totally get your coming from the Vikings. I
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: just can't get.
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: There all right very quickly.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Falcons are three and a half at the Lions. I'm
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: kind of waiting at this point. Like we talked about
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: this on Sunday night, I love the Falcons at five
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: and a half, but you kind of talked me out
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: of it in that moment. We agreed on Tuesday that
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: we probably should have bet at five.
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: And a half. It's now at three and a half.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of just hoping it gets to three and
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna take the Lions.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: Nothing on this game. Too many injuries for the Lions,
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: and I don't have any blind I don't have blind
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: faith taking rider on the road in this spot.
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Can we talk about this Browns Titans game? It's everything
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: that we sort of believe in on both sides of it.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Brown's defense statistically is actually better than the Yeah, right now,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: they are more aggressive, they are more dominant. This is
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: a terrible matchup for the Titans. No one has sniffed
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: the red zone against the Browns. In two games. Opponents
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: have not had a play inside the red zone. Credit
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Anthony de Bundo Action Network. Like and this Titans online
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: I talked about at the top of the show, I'm
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: begging you people, go watch the Favorites film room with
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: me and Simon ten minutes YouTube only where we break
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: down different plays, and we broke down the Titans offensive
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: line doesn't communicate it's not very good. It's gonna be
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: hard to keep Brian Tannehill upright against the Browns. But like,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: we had to bet the Titans at four and a
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: half and four, and now I'm kind of just thinking,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: I gotta take I gotta basically balance it out and
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: bet the Browns because it's a pretty good spot for them.
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: And this is the big balls bet of the week.
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: No way, doesn't this take some balls here d taking
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: this Browns team.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: It takes massive balls. I actually thought we were gonna
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: go with the Colts against the Ravens.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: That's fair, but no, this, this one, this one takes
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: some balls. Like, of all the bets, all the pros,
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: everyone's saying to me, it's making me feel sick. Every
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: time I bet it. At three, I still felt sick.
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: Now it's minus three and a half and it's like,
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: I still gotta bet this. This is just a sick,
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: sick bet. Yeah, big, big balls. Better the Week's gotta
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: be the browns of all the ones, better the week.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: This is definitely our toughest bet of the week.
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: I am sick to my stomach.
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're gonna have to talk with Watson. Don't be
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: a fucking idiot, and we be two and zero. No,
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: no more of trying to have Watson win us games
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: like that. That's got to be off the table at
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: this point. I'll sack up a lot of favorites this week.
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: A lot of favorites, a lot of favorites. Oh god,
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: this is a terrible week.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Quickly, quickly, quickly, Colts plus seven and a half against
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. That's the one i' this morning. And seven
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: and a half definitely missed the number. But I still
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: like the Cults more than a touchdown.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: Well the pass I'm on the Ravens. These are the
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: kind of teams that Lamar beats the shit out of.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Saints plus two against Green Bay we touched on it
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit, you mentioned it in sharp calls. Has
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: it changed your mind now?
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: If we get there, I would love to take the Saints.
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: I know a bunch of pros that are on both
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: sides though, so it's definitely one of the more split
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: games of the week. Like you know, if it's two
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: and a half comes Sunday, I just have a hard time.
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: Let's not get it in there. This is by far
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: the best defense that Jordan Love is ever going to
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: play this season. And the fear with us taking Derek
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: Carr in this spot is, you know, he just if
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: he gets any type of pressure and throws him off.
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: But what I've seen from Green Bay is their defense
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: is underperforming through two games. Like even that Bears game,
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: the Bears had tons of opportunities to beat them. It
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: was just kind of just that feels not taking that.
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: I think Derek Carr will like, they got three really
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: good receivers and alive still hasn't had that one hundred
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: and fifty two hundred yard receiving game that he could
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: break out with. So if Kamara, Alvin Kamara was playing
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: this game, I'd be all over the Saints team. This
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: is the last game he's out for. He'll be back
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: next week. So that's why I'm not going crazy on
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: the Saints one. But I do love the spot here,
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: especially if against the two and a half.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: All right, I like it too if it gets to
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I've listed it on our list,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: which like is causing this confusion when we talk on
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Sunday because we're going too fast. So I want to
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: confirm this with you, but I also want us to
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: be thoughtful and not worry about that we're talking with
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: only fifteen minutes to make the picks, because we'll look
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: at the whole board on Sunday. Let's commit that to
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: each other. Please, Like Sunday, we'll both have.
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: Up the lines. We'll go through every game.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: We'll make sure that as the lines have moved, we're
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: not going to be so committed just to the ones
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: I have in my notes.
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: Please, I'll try my best, Okay.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Right now, we've talked about the Texans plus nine and
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: a half, the Pats minus two and a half. We've
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: talked about Denver plus six and a half, Las Vegas
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half, Bucks plus four and a half,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: and then on the outside looking in, we're talking about
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: the Browns if they're still a three, the Saints that
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: they can get to two and.
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: A half, and we'll see.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Before we get to our money line Underdog round Robin parlay,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: reminder that the Week three contest tiebreaker is longest Bengals
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: touchdown against the Rams. Our predictive analyst Billy Ward wrote
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: another tiebreaker strategy article. Will include the link in this
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: episode's description.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: Mot Dog blocks Your dogs, Your dog blocks.
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: Mot Dog Simon.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Let's get to our money line, round Robin Underdog Parlay.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: We know we're gonna put the Bucks in there. Should
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: we put the Saints in there?
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: They are? The Saints in there, Houston Texans in there.
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: Get a big one in there.
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: I like it. I like it.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: Let's get a little crazy here the Broncos.
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we're on the same page again. We're back, We're
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: find nothing. It's all happening again.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: And this last one, I know it pains you, but
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: you know again, we don't want to be two attached
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: to our Sunday bets. Let's go Commanders. Let's take a
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: little on the comedies starting three and oh that ugly
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: random team. There's always one that wins a couple of
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: games I shouldn't win. And we saw it. How was
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: making those big time fuck it throws? And like, I
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: love seeing that last week out of them and the
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: Bills coming off such a huge win. This would be
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: a nice little letdown spot for them. And this defensive line.
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: There's few teams that give Josh Allen big trouble and
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: it's really talented, incredibly gifted athletes that play defensive line,
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: and that's exactly what Washington has. Washington's front four is mean,
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: and they're fast, and they're angry, and you know, I
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: look at this matchup, I'm just like these guys all
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: I've been talking about Josh Allen and what they need
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: to get done here. So yeah, we might not get
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: them in our contest, even though I do love it.
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: We gotta get in the money line around Robin Kid
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: Washington in there.
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: We still got a lot to do.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Make Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the NFL.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Part of your Game Day, Simon is Pizza, The Ultimate
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: game day food it is, Chad, I love it. Order
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: online during our pizza pizza pre game that's one hour
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: before NFL games, and get ready for some football and fun.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, if I invited you over for veggie pizza,
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: you'd still eat that pizza.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: Ah, yeah, I would just pick off the toppings. Oh man.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: Either way, you win because it's pizza.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or our
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: in store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends and
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: enjoy a few slices during the tastiest hour before kickoff. Simon,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: we gotta give people a survivor. Pick who's it going
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: to be?
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: I get? Is it the Ravens? Like you like the
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: Ravens so much?
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: This week was tough though, because we're trying to do
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: Game three and like, there's certain teams you want to
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: play to say it for later and yeah, that's always
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: the toughest thing about doing these different games. And there's
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: so many big double digit favorites this week.
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: You know, Patriots, that's a little risky, that is major risky, but.
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: That would that would be smart because we'll never, We'll never.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: We're never going to use them anyway.
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, we're never going to use them again.
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: Oh man. Like part of me wanted to use the
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: Jaguars because when else whatever, we use it again. But
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: they just this feels the game they could lose. Damn it.
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: Chat are we are? We are do? We just got
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: to dive in and just take the Chiefs Like that's
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: just as safe as it gets. The Chiefs go Chicago
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: and then they go at the Jets, So we either
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: could do them this week or take them at the
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: Jets next week.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Well, I would take them at home before I would
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: take them on the road against that defense.
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: Then this is it. We could take them all the
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: way Monday, December twenty fifth at home against Vegas, but
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: that's so far away to plan on taking the Chiefs.
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: I'd rather use them now. Just get it done.
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: Let's get them to beat up on the Bears.
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by bet
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: They believe that every sport should be epic. Every touchdown,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: every game, every point, every play, from the moments that
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar.
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: See for yourself when you sign up today with Code.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Action and you'll get three hundred and sixty five dollars
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet just one dollar or
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: You also must be present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: or Virginia. If you or someone you know as a
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred gambler
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or one off
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Time for a new
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: final segment. We're adding to the Thursday show because we
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: love Evan Abrams. We love all of his research and
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: all the data and all the notes that he gives us.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: The last word with Evan Abrams, Evan, welcome, my friend.
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: What's going on?
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: Guys?
• 47:24
  Speaker 5: One thing I do have to say, so I'll be
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: a tony reality here, a little stat guy.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: So i'mon't said something Trevor Lawrence related.
• 47:31
  Speaker 5: He's never finished as high as a favorite zero to
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: five against the spread. I believe it is as a
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: home favorite, so never covered in this spot, so a
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: little correction there, but bad spot for Jacksonville.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Honestly, want to talk about the Cardinals.
• 47:44
  Speaker 5: I'm actually obsessed with Arizona this year just because no
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: one wants to bet on them. So just a few
• 47:48
  Speaker 5: stats that I think are really fun. So in the
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: Wildcard Era since nineteen ninety, no two to zero against
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: the spread team has ever been a double digit home dog,
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: so Arizona would be the first in this scenario, and
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: they'd be just.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: The fourth double digit double digit dog in general.
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: The other three oh and three straight up owing three
• 48:05
  Speaker 5: against the spread failed to cover by twenty five points
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: in total, so not great.
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: Thank you for that though, Like that just saved me
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: a lot of money.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but here, here's just like, honestly the fun part
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: about this.
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: Right now, Arizona has just eleven percent of tickets against Dallas.
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: No team has closed with eleven percent or lessons two
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: thousand and eight, even at twelve twelve and a half
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: points at home. They can't get a single dollar on
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: Arizona after going to and against the spread.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: So and that, by the way, is also when you
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: want to bet the underdog at home as a double
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: digit underdog, like of course you want to back the Cardinals.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: And yet I'm with Simon, I don't know if I can.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I can hold my nose and
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: do that. All right, tell me a scenario with the
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: Jets in New England. You say there's something similar.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: Just something fun. This is just a great nugget.
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: So the Patriots are field goal favorites now about two
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: and a half over the Jets. That means over the
• 49:01
  Speaker 5: last twenty years, the Jets have been favorite versus the
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: Patriots just once in the last forty four meetings. So
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: one time forty four meetings the Jets have been favorite
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: over the Patriots. Good trivia question. So it happened in
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: twenty eleven. Mark Sanchez did it, so that was the
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: last Jets quarterback to do that. But the stat Patriots
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: have defeated the Jets fourteen straight times. That is the
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: second longest active streak Chiefs over Broncos fifteen straight. So
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: we get the bet those in the next few weeks
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: as well.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: Well, Simon, we're automatically screwed on the Pats now, so
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: we made the wrong decision on the Cardinals. We're screwed
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: in the Pats. Evan can you go three and zero
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: in making Simon and I feel it like shit, we're.
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: About to turn the tables a little bit. This is
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: a Chad special. So we always talk about, and he's
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: always talked about for years betting bad teams. It's what
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: we always love doing. So this is a bet the
• 49:52
  Speaker 5: bad team system. These are the teams you don't want
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: to bet. So off a double digit loss early in
• 49:57
  Speaker 5: the year and on the road fift thirty and one
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: against the Spreadsons twenty seventeen, so early success. More recently
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: and then over the last twenty years it's fifty nine
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: to sixty percent.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: That would be the Bears that would give the Texans.
• 50:11
  Speaker 5: So the two teams that look the worst that no
• 50:14
  Speaker 5: one wants tend to cover.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, thank you for coming on the show. I'm
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: looking forward to this segment every week.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: One thing to keep in mind this weekend, people, we
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: have major storms coming up the East Coast, like they're
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: talking about like semi tropical storms. So if you're thinking
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: yourself what games might be affected by this right now,
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: they're saying New England, the Jets game, Washington, Buffalo, Indianapolis,
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: and Baltimore. So just before you start going crazy betting overs.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: Those are the games you want to pause on before
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: you put any money on it, and know what the
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: weather's going to be like. Don't try to overthinking like well,
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be wet and slipper out there, like take
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: the over. We just take the unders. Like if it's
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: raining really hard and really windy. Always go back to
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: that Buffalo forty nine Ers game from last year. It's
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: a total shit show when you afthrow the ball downfield
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: and you can't get any traction on the ground. So
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: definitely something to keep your eye on this weekend. People,
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: a big weather from coming East coast.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: You know what I thought of when you said that,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: I wasn't thinking about betting ankles. I was thinking we
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: had hurricane tsunami in Connecticut last weekend, and I forgot
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: to put the covers on our brand new outdoor patio furniture.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: So I am going to race home from the city
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: tonight and I'm going to make sure tomorrow I put
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the covers on the furniture because I don't want to
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: get that stuff wet. It's a whole new ball game.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not ruining another set of patio furniture. Let's recap
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: our foxhol New England Patriots minus two and a half,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: our Big.
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: Balls bet of the week.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns minus three and a half. Right now, I
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: prefer to wait until it gets to three, but I
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: guess we're going with it. The exact decision was Denver
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: plus seven. Also like it at six and a half,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: Simon says was Tampa Bay plus five and a half.
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: It's down to four and a half.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Our money line round Robin Parlay, Bucks, Saints, Texans, Broncos,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. Before we sign off, Simon and I will
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: be back with our week three recap episode live on
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: AMP and on the Action Network YouTube page this Sunday
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: and every Sunday, seven thirty pm. Also a reminder, tiebreakers
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: absolutely crucial in our contest if you want to cash.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Last week we had a ten way tie because folks
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: nailed the tiebreaker. Billy Ward, as we said, is writing
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: an article to the tiebreaker topic every week. This week
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: it is longest Cincinnati touchdown. Make sure you pay attention
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: to that. For Simon Hunter, I am Chad Millman. This
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: has been the Favorites podcast presented by BED three sixty five,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: part of The Action Network downloads from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts,
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: watch us on YouTube, leave us five stars. Feedback is
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: a gift until Sunday.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: gambler