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Aug 17 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260817 The August 17, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report details current developments in agricultural markets, industry operations, and agronomic conditions. Economist Matt Maltzbarger outlines how elevated nitrogen costs and a forecasted Super El Niño are influencing the 2027 corn and soybean crop rotation strategies for producers. In industry news, Tyson Foods announced the closure of its Joslin, Illinois, meat packing plant due to excess capacity and tight cattle supplies, while Senate Agriculture Committee progress on the farm bill remains stalled over SNAP penalty disputes. Field observations from Sherman Newlin on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicate significant drought stress and reduced yield estimates for corn and soybeans in South Dakota. Concluding the broadcast, meteorologist Mark Russo notes an upcoming reprieve from heavy rains across the Eastern Corn Belt and forecasts a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions in Europe that may aid winter crop preparations. 02:21 Ag Markets with Bob Maltzbarger, University of Missouri 10:51 Tyson Foods Closes Joslin, IL Packing Plant 14:09 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | South Dakota 17:35 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 17th day of August 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets and what it’s telling producers about next year’s crop rotation. We’ll do that with Matt Maltzbarger. He is with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, and an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri. Then we’ll turn our attention to the agricultural news for the day: the closing of the Joslin meat packing plant owned by Tyson Foods. We’ll also hear from Sherman Newlin today, who is on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour traveling through South Dakota, and then later on through Nebraska this afternoon. We’ll get an update on what those South Dakota corn yields look like. As we close out our time together, Mark Russo will be here to tell us about the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet, particularly what crop scouts will run into in the Midwest this week and how things might be changing in Western Europe. We’ll do all of that right here on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Announce: September corn for the day settled at $4.65, up 6 cents. December, 6 and a quarter higher at $4.89 and a half, and the March, $5.05 and a quarter; it finished 6 and a quarter higher. November beans, $12.16, up 23 and a half. January, 23 and a quarter higher at $12.31 for the afternoon. The bean meal futures up $1.90, the bean oil futures up $2.00, and soft red winter wheat at $6.89 and a quarter, a quarter of a cent lost for the day in the December contract. The hard red December at $7.71 and three quarters, up 4 cents. Live cattle futures in Chicago finished the nearby contract at $218.77 and a half, a dime lower. Feeder cattle were down a buck sixty today at $332.95, and lean hogs at $81.72 and a half, two and a half cents lower. Crude oil on the afternoon at $84.69 a barrel, up $2.30. 02:21 Ag Markets with Matt Maltzbarger, University of Missouri Todd Gleason: Matt Maltzbarger, senior research economist at the University of Missouri and with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Matt. Thanks for being with us. Let’s begin by getting a little bit of information about yourself first, please. Matt Maltzbarger: I’ve been at FAPRI about four and a half years now. Before that, I worked with IHS Global Insight, which is now part of S&P Global, for about eleven and a half years as an economist. At that time, I focused more on global oilseed markets, but I did baseline and price forecasting similar to what we do here at FAPRI. During that time, I was working on my graduate degrees with Abner for my master’s, and then he retired, and then Pat Westhoff, the previous director of FAPRI. Most of my focus has been on structural modeling of agriculture markets. When I switched over to FAPRI, I focused on cost of production and took over the US crops model, the state supply-side model as well, and I do some US farm income. My focus is primarily on crops, the effects thereof on the markets, and the different farmer behavior associated with those price effects and input effects. Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about that a little bit as we look forward into 2027. I suspect you’ve been thinking about the high price of nitrogen for corn producers, not only this fall but into next spring, and the crop that they rotate most often with, soybeans, which fixes its own nitrogen, as well as the market ratio looking into 2027. What do all those things tell you? Matt Maltzbarger: It tells me a lot of things when it comes to what’s probably going to happen given the prices today for spring planting in the United States. There are a lot of things going on. As you mentioned, fertilizer prices accelerated when the US and Iran conflict began. The nitrogen came down at least wholesale for a little bit, and it’s slightly off its peak earlier this year, but they still remain relatively high. Below the 2022 peaks, but still relatively high. At the same time in 2022, we had really high prices for crops, and those have come off. Even though they’ve come up a little bit—spiked in May and again in June—they are higher than they were last year for the marketing year, but still well below the peaks. What that does is put a squeeze on making sure you stay in the black as a crop farmer. When farmers are looking at what they’re going to plant next year, it’s a combination of their normal rotation. Normally corn goes with soybeans, and they rotate back and forth. Sometimes it includes winter wheat with double-crop soybeans. Ultimately, grains like corn take more fertilizer inputs, specifically nitrogen, whereas soybeans are nitrogen-fixing. If your normal rotation is corn-soybeans, it makes sense to stay on your rotation because that’s what’s going to be most productive for your soil. But sometimes across the Corn Belt, we see that certain states can grow corn back-to-back with corn, sometimes three times, but it requires even more fertilizer to keep those yields up. So with high nitrogen prices, it seems that just on the cost of production front, it makes sense that we may see people pulling soybeans back into rotation, especially if they’ve been back-to-back corn, and then staying on rotation if they’re corn-soybean normally. On the price side, looking at the futures market today, we see that the soybean-corn price ratio is just under 2.5 this morning on the board. That’s the reduced form profitability of what makes sense to plant. If you get over 2.4, close to 2.5, the market is trying to tell us that we should grow more soybeans. At the same time, looking forward into the fall, we’re going into an El Niño. Meteorologists are talking about a Super El Niño. What that means is for part of South America, there’s going to be some dryness in soybean areas. If they don’t get that rainy season coming in early, typically around late September into October, it may mean some of those soybeans don’t go in the ground as quick. If that’s the case, it may affect their yields. That would likely keep that soybean-corn price ratio in alignment with what we’re looking at today, which also keeps that incentive for US farmers to push more soybeans to the ground, especially if it fits rotational needs. Todd Gleason: So if I’m a producer in a corn-corn-soybean rotation, or I have acres that I can and am willing to move to soybeans for the coming year because the marketplace is telling me to do that, you’re giving me information that I really need to understand more fully. That’s a price ratio today which probably tells me I may need to market that, or at least a good portion of that soybean crop for 2027 today if I can in some way. You’re also telling me that because of the Super El Niño there may be higher prices down the road. I need some more information about how to make that decision. Matt Maltzbarger: You bring up two very good points. The marketing part of it—obviously, hindsight is always 20/20. In May, we had a bean price over $12. In June, we were up near that again, and today on the board I think we’re looking at $12.09 for November soybeans this year. Looking at next year, those prices are obviously still large relative to what they were a year ago for soybeans. On the board, we’re looking at $11.83 for next November, November 27. It would make sense if you are thinking about marketing your soybeans to take advantage of locking in a little bit of that, feathering it in before the harvest lows, which we may have already seen in July. A lot of times that happens between late August and October. With the price where it is today, it makes sense to try to feather in some of those early sales and think about at least part of your production pushing back into soybeans. If it makes sense for your farm and you’re looking at your margins, taking a look at what is available right now for prices, if you’re looking at anhydrous for this fall application, it may seem daunting. I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know what’s going to happen with the US-Iran conflict. We did see earlier this year when there was a potential peace talk going on, that’s when we saw the FOB price for urea down at New Orleans come off, and some of that was reflected in what’s happening right now with retail prices; it eased up a little bit. But it’s still pretty high. I don’t know if we’re going to have any peace deal between now and the spring, but if it does happen, those nitrogen prices may ease up a little bit. Looking at what’s happening right now and where prices are, it may make sense to really think about if you want to put a few more acres of soybeans in and think about how many of those acres make sense to go back to soybeans for spring planting. Todd Gleason: Matt, thank you very much. I really appreciate you taking time with me. Matt Maltzbarger: Absolutely, sir. Todd Gleason: Matt Maltzbarger is a senior research economist at the University of Missouri and with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. 10:51 Tyson Foods Closes Joslin, IL Packing Plant Todd Gleason: Here’s some agricultural news for the afternoon. Tyson Foods is closing its Joslin, Illinois plant near the Quad Cities. That’s because of tight cattle supplies and a restructuring of the packing industry. Oklahoma State livestock marketing specialist Darrell Peel looked into this and says Tyson is concentrating its operations on its largest plants, but the adjustments may not be over. Darrell Peel: They also indicated in today’s news that in addition to closing Joslin, the Pasco, Washington plant that they have was for sale. They’re clearly looking to potentially do something with that plant as well at some point in the future. Todd Gleason: Could more be on the chopping block? Peel says the industry still has more capacity than the current cattle supply can support in the United States. Darrell Peel: I don’t think probably, particularly with Tyson’s indication that they may restart the second shift in Amarillo, that the total capacity would change that much. Therefore we probably still have excess capacity for the foreseeable future. That will continue to be a challenge for packers, and that may be the basis for some additional adjustments going forward. Todd Gleason: Those packing plant changes do not just affect the companies and their employees. About 2,500 workers are losing their jobs in Joslin, Illinois. Producers who have relied on Joslin will have to find another destination for their cattle, and that will probably involve higher transportation costs. Now let’s turn to Washington DC, where Senate Ag Committee Republicans remaining hope to advance a farm bill is the expected return of Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell from a lengthy medical absence. Chair John Boozman knew at the outset that he did not have the votes to advance his Senate farm bill, but now he’s telling Democrats he soon will. McConnell is home from rehab after a fall in June left him hospitalized. His progress could return him to the Senate next month. McConnell voted by proxy on farm bill amendments but under Senate rules could not cast the winning final committee vote. Boozman meanwhile told Democrats he would not negotiate further on his compromised one-year SNAP penalty delay. John Boozman: I want to be clear. A two-year delay does not have the support of the majority in Congress or of the White House. The offer before you is the best and it’s the final offer. Announce: Boozman added the Democrats’ rejection of the offer and the committee farm bill meant last year’s SNAP changes will take effect. John Boozman: Current law will remain in effect, and states with poorly administered SNAP programs will begin to pay for the portion of benefit costs next year. Announce: It’s the third year without a new farm bill as losses and bankruptcies mount, and for Boozman, it seems like the end of his patience. John Boozman: We worked very hard to provide a one-year extension. In return, we’ve gotten—it’s two years or nothing. Todd Gleason: That was chairman of the Senate Ag Committee, John Boozman, and a look at today’s agricultural news. 14:09 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | South Dakota Todd Gleason: Over 100 crop scouts have already hit the road for the annual Corn Belt crop tour this week, with its roots deep into the 1980s with the Illinois Farm Bureau’s AgriVisor team and now operated by Pro Farmer. The tour is made up of two legs, one here in the eastern Corn Belt, and one in the west. Sherman Newlin of Zaner Ag Hedge has been traveling that western leg over the last several years and has returned this year with Karen Braun, who is also with Zaner Ag Hedge, and later in the week, Ted Seifried as well. Hi Sherman, thanks for being with us. I know you’re supposed to be in Nebraska today, but I believe you start out in South Dakota. Where are you? Sherman Newlin: We’re doing part of both. We’re doing our first nine stops in South Dakota, then we’ll have four or five more stops in Nebraska before we head on into Grand Island this evening. Todd Gleason: What are conditions like on the ground? Sherman Newlin: Coming out, our first stop right out of South Dakota was fairly moist, wasn’t too bad. But the farther west we’ve driven, it’s gotten significantly drier, and you can tell by the corn going through drought. You can tell it. Todd Gleason: Do you have some numbers for us today? Sherman Newlin: You bet. On average, because Karen and I have driven this route for the last six to eight years at least, on the whole we’re down 11% on corn from last year and down 14% on bean pod counts from last year. We’ve had yield ranges; our very first stop was probably our best, around 205. The last several corn stops we’ve had have been close to 135. A lot of dry corn, been through a drought, poor pollination on those fields, ugly-looking ears. The farther west we come, which I heard it would be, we’re finding a lot more. This part of South Dakota is in that drought on the drought monitor map, and it’s definitely holding true. Todd Gleason: Did you start in better corn then, I take it further to the east? That would make sense to me. Sherman Newlin: Yes, straight out of Sioux Falls. It was a lot better corn right there. Our first stop had good moisture, nicer looking ears, a 205 yield, and then our next one was 175, then our next one dropped down to 135. We ran into slightly better corn, but again, the last three stops have been in the low 130s. We’ve been in Lincoln County, Turner County, Hutchinson, Bon Homme, and now we’re getting ready to head into Yankton. Todd Gleason: All right, and so you’ll be in Yankton, and then you’ll head into Nebraska later today too? Sherman Newlin: Yes, we’ll stop, have some lunch, and we’ll get into Nebraska. Make four more stops, and it’s about a two or three-hour drive on into Grand Island. Todd Gleason: Okay, we will check in with you tomorrow. Thank you much for the update. Sherman Newlin: You bet. Todd Gleason: Sherman Newlin is with Zaner Ag Hedge and joined us from the western leg of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. 17:35 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics Todd Gleason: Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics now takes a look at the weather with us. Hi Mark, I appreciate you taking some time. We have a lot of ground to cover, much like the crop scouts have this week across the Pro Farmer crop tour. They will be traveling through Ohio and the eastern side of Indiana today. I’m going to guess that a lot of that will be very difficult moving. Can you tell me about the rainfall that we have had, particularly in that area, and what you think conditions might be like on the ground? Mark Russo: We saw over the weekend, especially at the start of the weekend, anywhere from one to five inches of rain, localized higher amounts across those areas. That was after what fell last week, and so far in August, which has been an obviously very wet start or first half of August across the region. That’s the bad news for those areas; they’re going into some of the muddiest and wettest conditions you could see at this time of year. The one good piece of news is the forecast. Todd Gleason: Which is? Mark Russo: Looking ahead, the pattern that produced the heavy rainfall and flooding, but severe weather, is beginning to come to an end. While the pattern is not going to be totally dry, these upcoming rain events are going to occur less frequently and will be generally lighter coming up. That is the good news. This really wet start to August and all the severe weather and wind issues besides the flooding issues in localized areas is now beginning to ease and change for this middle to end of the month. Todd Gleason: I have not heard this, but just to put this one to rest, this is not a 1993 kind of event. Mark Russo: That is correct. In 1993, the flooding started much earlier and continued here. This is certainly not to those levels. On top of that, we’ve gotten some inquiries about how all the wind issues compare to August of 2020. It’s a totally different situation. 2020 was really bad, especially around Iowa. This year, we have not had that extent of severe wind gusts. Todd Gleason: That would have been the derecho of 2020 through Iowa that lasted for 12 to 14 hours. Given that, where is the heaviest rainfall? Where has it been, and because we have sunshine, I’m really trying to get at all these places will benefit as it relates to grain fill and the rainfall together. Where were the hardest hit areas, is there a line that you can give me from Rock Island, Moline through Muncie, Indiana? Mark Russo: Generally, just from an interstate standpoint, around the I–80 down through I–70 corridor were the hardest hit areas in general. Rainfall totals over the past week or so were anywhere from three, four, five inches upwards to some nine, ten, and eleven-inch totals, especially from southeast Iowa, western Illinois, eastward through Columbus, Ohio. Todd Gleason: Okay. Now look ahead to the next week. What do you see? Mark Russo: Again, we see much less rain coming up, totals generally less than an inch across most of these areas that got the numerous inches of rain over the past week’s time frame. There’ll still be some isolated areas that could pick up around an inch, but the vast majority of acreage will receive less than that not only the next seven days but even next week as well. This pattern of lighter and less frequent rains looks to continue next week. Todd Gleason: Changes here. Do we have a cooldown in Europe? Mark Russo: Yes, we’re seeing a cooldown in temperatures, especially across western and central Europe coming up over the next couple of weeks. Along with that will be much-improved rainfall prospects. In fact, the pattern across Europe over the next two weeks looks to be the wettest since May. It’s coming too late to improve summer crops, but it will begin the process of improving topsoil moisture for upcoming winter crop planting, as well as improving the river levels, which are at historically low levels and causing major restrictions and issues with river transportation there. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. Mark Russo: My pleasure, Todd. Todd Gleason: That’s Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on-demand at WILLAg.org. I’m Todd Gleason.