Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 427 - 1/7/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 All systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now hello and.
- 0:14Welcome to Episode 420. Seven of the all systems.
- 0:19Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:22I am your host. Josh.
- 0:24Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:30Happy Wednesday. It's officially Hump.
- 0:33Day that means we are one day closer, of course, to a huge
- 0:36weekend of football here we. Got the NFL playoffs Saturday,
- 0:39Sunday and. Also on Monday and by the way.
- 0:42Did you guys see? Houston, Pittsburgh.
- 0:44Talked about the Pittsburgh. Steelers Plus. 3 1/2.
- 0:47Hope you guys. Jumped on that hook because I'm
- 0:49seeing most books. Now get down to three and.
- 0:51Remember, the Steelers were that that classic system match as a
- 0:54playoff dog. Playoff dogs.
- 0:56Covering 61%. Against the spread.
- 0:58Since 2017. Wild card dog 64%.
- 1:02ATS since 2017 and then. Those short playoff dogs.
- 1:05Three or less 72. Percent since 2018 and again,
- 1:09Steelers only getting about. 35% of spread bats at DK.
- 1:13But those three and a? Half's are getting back down to.
- 1:153 So I hope you jumped on the hook there.
- 1:17We're looking pretty good there with.
- 1:18Hopefully some CLV. On the Steelers.
- 1:21But before we get to that weekend, we got a couple huge
- 1:23games coming up here. Final four in college football.
- 1:26So I just want to reiterate I will have a.
- 1:28Full breakdown on tomorrow's pod, but.
- 1:30Talk just mention. Tomorrow's game real quick,
- 1:33Miami, FL and Ole Miss. I am on Ole Miss plus. 3 1/2.
- 1:38Pretty much open minus. 33 and a.
- 1:40Half, but all the. Juice.
- 1:41Is on the side of Ole Miss Plus. 3 1/2. -115 so.
- 1:45Unlike the Steelers, who? Are officially down to three,
- 1:48Ole Miss looks like they're. Trending down to. 3 So again,
- 1:51kind of the last. Call the trains.
- 1:52Leaving the station. 22. You want that hook better not
- 1:55wait too much longer. So I'm on Ole Miss 3 and A.
- 1:58Half reminder that is a dog who can score system match.
- 2:01Trying to get some. CLV, of course.
- 2:03Because if you can. Get the the best of the number
- 2:05that's. Always half the battle.
- 2:06Rhythm has a 3.1 spread. And we also have.
- 2:10Kind of that SCC. Greater than.
- 2:12The the ACC. So hopefully.
- 2:14We can again officially get that 3 1/2.
- 2:17And either win the game or lose. By three or less.
- 2:20So I'm on. Ole Miss there in.
- 2:22The points and then. We'll have a lot of time to talk
- 2:25about it upcoming on Friday, but.
- 2:27Oregon, Indiana man. Oregon is sharp as a tack.
- 2:30Got them plus. 4 1/2 they're down to 3 1/2 even though 80.
- 2:33Percent. Of spread bets, they're on
- 2:35Indiana. So again, full breakdown.
- 2:37On Miami and Ole Miss On. Tomorrow's pod because.
- 2:39That'll be a game. Day play.
- 2:41But I am on the 3 1/2 and the four and a half with Oregon now
- 2:44down to 3 1/2. I want to mention as always.
- 2:46Reminder, we do have our. Splash Sports Survivor Contest.
- 2:51Available you can jump right in. Add up to 7.
- 2:53Entries 25 bucks. An entry and you.
- 2:56Can win up to 5600. Bucks.
- 2:58And the tweet. Pinned at the top of my.
- 3:01Twitter page at Josh under Score Insights that'll have the link
- 3:04to the Survivor contest for Splash.
- 3:05Sports if you are. Inclined I'd.
- 3:07Love for you guys to join, I'd like someone.
- 3:08Listening to get 5 grand in their pocket.
- 3:11Wouldn't that be nice? Now looking toward today.
- 3:13I do have. A three pack of college
- 3:15basketball plays for you. There's an early game at 5:00
- 3:18that we're going to start with, and then a.
- 3:19Couple big games later. With some very, very just, you
- 3:22know, Hall of Fame reverse. Line movement where?
- 3:25Public's on one. Side the favorite, but the lines
- 3:27moving toward the dog, so we'll see if we can.
- 3:29Try to get 2 out of these. 3 College basketball plays eek out
- 3:32a winning night. Now before we get into today's
- 3:34sweats, little recap of yesterday.
- 3:37We're still grinding, man. We're not getting the brakes we
- 3:39want. 1 and 2 -, 1.17 units. We had a just an amazing.
- 3:44Start tonight with Minnesota. How about the Golden Gophers?
- 3:47Getting it done, everybody. And their mother on.
- 3:49Iowa, but. A Hall of Fame reverse line move
- 3:51play was. Minus. 6 1/2 Iowa 75% of bets on
- 3:55the Hawkeyes, but it fell. Down to 5 1/2 even. 4 1/2.
- 3:59Might have even gotten a 6 1/2 earlier in the day, but that
- 4:02was. A classic reverse line move
- 4:03play. And.
- 4:04Got a little dicey. They had a big.
- 4:06Lead end up holding. On winning by three.
- 4:08But an outright winner with the. Gophers, which was fantastic.
- 4:11But then he when he when he had three plays, you win the first
- 4:14one, you're like, OK, I only need one of the next two.
- 4:16Have a winning night. Fortunately wasn't in the cards
- 4:18because there was some late. Movement against us which?
- 4:22Made me really nervous. I'm like, oh, oh, this.
- 4:24Isn't good and that late move. Proved.
- 4:26To be disastrous because San Jose State was minus. 1 1/2 of
- 4:31the time of the pod, the line flipped.
- 4:32Back to Fresno. -1 -. 1 1/2, Fresno.
- 4:36Ended up winning by. 15 and the one.
- 4:38That really hurt was Nevada, because Nevada, they got up to
- 4:41-2 and then there's a ton of steam on San Diego State late.
- 4:44To flip it back. To San Diego State -1 -. 1 and.
- 4:471/2 and even. Despite that late movement, I'm
- 4:50like, oh, this isn't good late movement's breaking against us.
- 4:52Nevada got off to like a. 14 to 2 lead.
- 4:55And they made it tough. And it was.
- 4:56Close down the stretch. But San Diego State beat them by
- 4:595 S Really just unfortunate those late moves going against
- 5:03us with Fresno and San Diego State to sink our San Jose State
- 5:07and Nevada play so. Either way guys. 1 and 2 - 1.17
- 5:11unit night. We'll see if we can get some
- 5:13winners here for tonight, Start a new streak.
- 5:15So that being said, I don't want to waste any more time because
- 5:18we got to talk about an early game.
- 5:19Here this is the. First game of the night.
- 5:21It is. Furman and Tennessee,
- 5:23Chattanooga. Let's set the stage.
- 5:25Talk. Split system matches I'll.
- 5:27Give you my play. For this one.
- 5:28So as I mentioned, 5:00 game, so definitely want.
- 5:32To put this one in. Sooner rather than later.
- 5:33If you want. To tail fade, do whatever you
- 5:35like. But setting the stage, we have
- 5:37Furman. Coming in 10 and. 5 did just
- 5:39have a six. Game win.
- 5:40Streak, though, come. To an end they.
- 5:41Lost to Western Carolina. 80 to 77 in.
- 5:44Overtime they're. Actually an 8 1/2 point.
- 5:46Home favorite in that one, lost straight up.
- 5:48Meanwhile, Chattanooga 6. And nine on the.
- 5:50Year they've dropped. Four of their last five just
- 5:52came up. Short against VMI 79 to 71 they.
- 5:56Lost out right as a 5 1/2. Point Rd.
- 5:58Favorite. So we've seen across the market.
- 6:00Here. Well, this came open Furman.
- 6:02Listed as a 1 1/2. Point Rd.
- 6:03Favorite. Very, very short number.
- 6:05It's. Pretty clear the pros.
- 6:07Seem to think this line's a bit. Short So we've seen pro money
- 6:10hit Furman and Steam Furman. Is it the paladins or the
- 6:13paladins? I don't.
- 6:14Know how you pronounce that? I should know because I think
- 6:17they've been in the tournament in years past, but anyway,
- 6:20Steam. Firm and up minus. 1 1/2.
- 6:22Up to -2 1/2. Also notable because you'll get
- 6:25the. Splits that.
- 6:25Look pretty good on. Furman, 72% of spread bets 83%
- 6:29of spread. Dollars at DK.
- 6:31Over at Circa in Vegas, 60% of spread bets 87.
- 6:34Percent of spread dollars. On Furman, so good splits.
- 6:38For both DraftKings and Circa. In favor of the.
- 6:41Paladins. Paladins.
- 6:42Again, I don't know how to. Pronounce it.
- 6:44But anyway, we got the line move, we got the splits, but on
- 6:48the off chance of, you know, only winning by one or two and
- 6:51losing a 2 1/2. I did money line Furman, I got
- 6:54them at -130. Five earlier today, you're
- 6:57looking out around minus. 140 some shops even.
- 6:59As high as -150 so. Good sign the line gets more.
- 7:03Expensive on Furman. Tells us smart money is still
- 7:05pouring in. On Furman, but not great if you.
- 7:08Haven't played it yet. But again, shameless.
- 7:10Plug to get those ASG best bets. From Juice Reel for 499 a week.
- 7:15Or read the Sharp reports. That are right for visa.com.
- 7:18But anyway, DraftKings splits look pretty good. 70% bets 80%
- 7:23dollars on the. Paladins money line and.
- 7:25If you look at some advantages here, Furman on the one.
- 7:28Hand better offensive efficiency 163rd in the country versus.
- 7:34211th. For for the other.
- 7:38Opponent there? Chattanooga.
- 7:40Also better defensive. Efficiency 184th, 1st 3, O 7th
- 7:44and better effective. Field goal percentage.
- 7:46Their effective field goal. Percentage for Furman ranked
- 7:4870th versus 172nd. For Chattanooga now, Ken.
- 7:53Palm is Furman. Winning by two.
- 7:55Another reason why I. Want to money line them?
- 7:57Because if they win by. Two, you don't cover 2 1/2.
- 7:59But you would win. A money line.
- 8:00And Ken Palm. Also has Furman.
- 8:02Ranked higher, 164th in the country versus 260. 5th for
- 8:06Chattanooga so. Furman line move.
- 8:09Good splits. System match here I.
- 8:12Forgot to mention if. You're a short favorite.
- 8:14On the money line. So if you are favored, expected
- 8:17to win the game. And the money line?
- 8:19Or the spread price is 4 points or less.
- 8:21And the line moves least 1/2 point in your favor.
- 8:24Those teams straight up are 121 and 70. 462.
- 8:28Percent 5%. ROI this year?
- 8:30So you got it all up. I'm rocking Furman here.
- 8:33Furman to hopefully start a night off with a winner.
- 8:35On the money line. -135. Again, some shops.
- 8:38As high as -140 -, 150. Next one for you.
- 8:42Stanford and. Vatek 7:00 tip.
- 8:46Off here, Stanford comes in 12 and 3.
- 8:48Just upset. Louisville, 80 to 76, one
- 8:51outright. As an 8 1/2 point home.
- 8:52Dog. Meanwhile, Vatek.
- 8:54Also 12 and 3. But they just saw six game win
- 8:56streak. Come to an end, they lost to
- 8:58Wake Forest 81 to 78. Did cover though as a. 5 1/2
- 9:02point Rd. Dog.
- 9:03So what have we seen across the market here?
- 9:05Well, the public all. Over Vitek.
- 9:07Virginia Tech at home, they are getting 71% of.
- 9:11Spread bets at DraftKings. So ton of.
- 9:14Public support on Vitek, however, Virginia.
- 9:17Tech actually opened this game. Around a 5 1/2.
- 9:20Point home favorite the. Line got down to 4 1/2.
- 9:23I jumped on. Stanford at +5 I got.
- 9:26Him at Caesar's. But a lot of.
- 9:28Books are down to 4 1/2 and now. I'm seeing some shops.
- 9:31Get down to 3 1/2. So I'm in Massachusetts, bet MGM
- 9:35and FanDuel. And DK are all at 3 1/2 but I'm
- 9:39seeing Caesar's. Still at +4.
- 9:41And the score. And Bally bet.
- 9:42Both at 4 1/2. -120 so. At least try to get the. 4 1/2
- 9:46but it's pretty clear that Publix fought tech.
- 9:49But lines going to Stanford tells us.
- 9:51Smart money here. Reverse line move.
- 9:53Going with the Cardinal. Cardinal are a great contrarian
- 9:55play. It's.
- 9:55One of the most heavily backed games of the night and they're
- 9:57only getting 20. 9% of spread. Bets but they.
- 9:59Are getting 59. Percent of spread dollars.
- 10:02At DraftKings, so good low bets. Higher dollar split there also.
- 10:07If you look at. Some advantages here, hopefully
- 10:10for Stanford. Maybe better on the.
- 10:11Boards. Always important to get.
- 10:13Those those offensive rebounds. Because Stanford ranked 75th and
- 10:17offensive rebound percentage 145th.
- 10:20For vot tech and also better free throw.
- 10:22Shooting tight game you got. To make your free throws 172nd
- 10:26for Stanford 240. 1st for Vot tech.
- 10:29Also the Cardinal defensively, they turn their opponents over
- 10:33more often. 27th in the country versus 100.
- 10:35And 5th for Vattek. And also they limit offensive.
- 10:38Rebounds to their opponents. 42nd versus 220. 9th.
- 10:42Doesn't hurt that I. Noticed a 9% excuse me 9.
- 10:45Percent sharp mush edge. On Stanford at juice rail so.
- 10:49The sharper players they're. Also leaning here toward the
- 10:52Cardinal, so hopefully. You got a 5.
- 10:54Maybe you got a four and a half. You still can get a four and a
- 10:56half. But don't wait too long.
- 10:58Great sign. The sign.
- 10:59Continues to go to Stanford even.
- 11:00Though the public is over Vatak. Again, I got Stanford. +5 still
- 11:04get the 4 1/2 but some books. Now down to 3 1/2.
- 11:08Now the big one. Tonight it is so.
- 11:10Gross. It is so.
- 11:11Contrarian. It is so sharp.
- 11:13I cannot wait to sweat it. 8:00 PM tonight, Iowa.
- 11:16State and Baylor most heavily. Back Game of the Night.
- 11:20And boy, is there a clear, sharp move in this one.
- 11:22Iowa State comes in. 14 and O ranked third in the country.
- 11:25They're a great. Team just brushed brushed.
- 11:28Aside West Virginia. 80 to 59, easily covered as a 16 1/2 point
- 11:32home favorite. On the other hand, Baylor, 10
- 11:34and three unranked, just saw their four.
- 11:36Game win streak come. To an end they.
- 11:37Lost to TCU 6963 did not. Cover as a 1 1/2 point Rd. dog
- 11:43but. What is the market?
- 11:45How is the market reacted for this match up well?
- 11:47Iowa State Open as a Six Point Rd. favorite and the public
- 11:51thinks this line is way too short.
- 11:53Iowa State's going to win by double digits.
- 11:55Because they're ranked, they're. Undefeated.
- 11:56Baylor's unranked. However, even though 82.
- 11:59Percent of spread bets are going with.
- 12:02Iowa State Iowa State is not up minus. 6.
- 12:05To -7 minus. 8 Nope, the lines gone the other way.
- 12:08We've seen this line get down to Iowa State minus. 4 1/2.
- 12:12Even some shops down to four. So let's take a step back here.
- 12:16If Iowa State is such a. Great team and.
- 12:18Everyone in their mother is on Iowa State.
- 12:20Then why are the odds of makers dropping this line to make it
- 12:23easier? For Iowa State backers to cover.
- 12:26Doesn't hurt too that the juice is on the.
- 12:28Baylor side plus. 4 1/2 - 1. 15 at most.
- 12:31Books looking like it again. Make it.
- 12:33Down to 4 so. This is one of those plays
- 12:34where, man, how do I take Baylor?
- 12:36Not a very good. They're not ranked.
- 12:39Iowa State. Is so much.
- 12:40Better, however, we. Got to trust the market here.
- 12:42That's the whole. Point of this podcast not to let
- 12:44our bias seep in again. Public thinks it's an easy.
- 12:47Play on Iowa State, but sharp money's telling me it's all here
- 12:51on Baylor. Baylor only getting again about.
- 12:5420% of tickets, but plus 6 down to 4 1/2.
- 12:57Classic, classic, classic. Reverse line movement.
- 12:59Baylor is aside from the sharp. Move the number one contrarian
- 13:02play of the night. 18% of spread bets.
- 13:05And heavily bet primetime game at circa though. 50% Tickets 89.
- 13:09Percent of spread dollars. So that tells me a lot of big
- 13:13money here pouring in with Baylor.
- 13:16Baylor also is a. Buy Low Unranked Home Dog Home
- 13:19Dog off a loss versus sell high ranked opponent was also
- 13:22undefeated. We also have home conference
- 13:25dogs with at least a. Half.
- 13:26Point of line movement. In their favor, this.
- 13:28Is kind of the same spot as. Minnesota yesterday against
- 13:31Iowa. And.
- 13:33That system conference home dog at least half point.
- 13:36Move in your favor 24 and 19 against the spread 56 percent,
- 13:397%. ROI.
- 13:41Lastly, Baylor has the better offensive.
- 13:43Rebound percentage 4th in the country versus 18th for Iowa
- 13:46State, and they shoot the. The free throw?
- 13:48Much better. 60th in the country versus 200.
- 13:51And 87th as. Great as Iowa State is.
- 13:54They're not great at shooting free throws.
- 13:56So hopefully that. Can help us cover this number
- 13:58here? But you might be like man.
- 13:59Baylor How do we? Possibly take Baylor if you.
- 14:02Are a data-driven sharp contrarian better?
- 14:04You're excited to sweat Baylor here tonight, so I did get
- 14:07Baylor. Plus 4 1/2 and oh by the way,
- 14:1035. Percent sharp mush.
- 14:11Edge on Baylor at Juice Reel. And rhythm has 2.
- 14:15System plays on Baylor. One is Baylor plus 3.31 is
- 14:19Baylor +2. .7 so we can still get that 4 1/2 which is
- 14:22available. Not a bad advantage there.
- 14:26So. Furman money line Stanford you.
- 14:28Would have loved the five or 4 1/2.
- 14:30Make sure you get at least 4 1/2 because some books.
- 14:31Down to 3 1/2 and then Baylor. You can still get the plus 4
- 14:341/2. See if we can.
- 14:35Get at least. Two out of these three.
- 14:37Go 2 and 1 eek out of winning night.
- 14:40So that about does it for episode 427 of the All systems
- 14:43go sports betting. Podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 14:46Little, short and sweet here. Before we have all the madness
- 14:49of. The College Football Playoff and
- 14:51NFL Playoffs upcoming here. Over the next few days, but as
- 14:54always. Going to wrap up the pod.
- 14:56First, by saying thank you. Thank you for listening.
- 14:59Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for grinding in the
- 15:01arena every single day. With me through the UPS and the
- 15:03downs, the hot. Streaks, the cold streaks or
- 15:06data-driven betters. We're grinders with blinders as
- 15:08an old. Friend of mine used to say but.
- 15:11If you do enjoy the pod, you value the.
- 15:12Insights please give. This podcast A5.
- 15:14Star Review. If you're listening on.
- 15:16Spotify or iTunes? In particular.
- 15:18Click the review button. Leave a nice.
- 15:20Comment click the follow. Button retweet the pod when I
- 15:23put it out every afternoon if. You want to recommend the pod to
- 15:25a friend? That would also be.
- 15:27Very much appreciated. Next, if you enjoy the.
- 15:30Style of betting breakdown. Data-driven, sharp, contrary and
- 15:33betting focusing on splits, line movement, system matches, making
- 15:35bets with our head and. Not our heart.
- 15:37Monitoring the market. Not what our.
- 15:39Feelings and emotions. Are telling us to do.
- 15:41This style. Of betting has appealed to you
- 15:43and you want to learn more. About data-driven betting Or you
- 15:45have someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips,
- 15:48or you just want to support. The team.
- 15:50I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com.
- 15:51And type in the NFL sharp betting.
- 15:53Playbook or the Everything Guide to Sports.
- 15:55Betting the two books that I've written.
- 15:57Very proud of both, but. If you want to.
- 15:58Grab one or the other. And leave a.
- 16:01Five star view on. Amazon too, while you're at it.
- 16:03Would appreciate that but. Bring them to the sports book.
- 16:05I'll sign them for you. I'll buy.
- 16:06You a beer? Or ginger ale and we'll sweat
- 16:08some games together. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
- 16:11and Juice Reel yet? My 2.
- 16:12Favorite sports betting apps? Rhythm.
- 16:14For their AI backed. Models and predictions for game
- 16:16bets. And player props, by the way,
- 16:18our rhythm rundown will be. Tomorrow at 6:00 PM Eastern Time
- 16:21myself. And my buddy Cade.
- 16:23Will be going through all of the.
- 16:25College Football Playoff and NFL.
- 16:26Playoffs for this weekend, so. To see you guys there, but then
- 16:30also Juice Reel. So many great advantages with
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- 16:42Jar if you enjoy. The pod, good insights and you
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- 18:21Josh, 12. Three, it'll tack on an extra 25
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- 18:26come on down, come join. The Applebaum.
- 18:29NFL playoff survivor Contest with with Splash Sports.
- 18:33Again, the pin. Tweet on my profile.
- 18:34On Twitter at Josh under Score Insights.
- 18:37We'll have the link to to to join in.
- 18:39About 25 bucks if you're the last.
- 18:40Man or woman standing? You're getting about 5 grand so
- 18:44not not a bad start to your 2026 if you can cash that thing.
- 18:48But that about does it guys. Another pod here in the books, a
- 18:50little short but sweet before again the madness of the next
- 18:53few days we got a. Glorious five straight.
- 18:55Days of football coming. Up Thursday, Friday, Saturday.
- 18:57Sunday and Monday so. Let's see if we can get get
- 19:01started on a hot. Streak hopefully with a winning
- 19:03night here for tonight. But as always, whether I see you
- 19:05at the Borgata. In Atlantic City, Twin River in.
- 19:08Rhode Island. The Brooklyn.
- 19:08New Hampshire. Foxwoods or Mohegan?
- 19:10Sun down in Connecticut. The encore in Boston.
- 19:13Lanridge Park Casino. MGM, Springfield.
- 19:15The Nash. We're closer.
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- 19:19Border of. Nashua, NH and.
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- 19:25His number runners. With lowest juice possible.
- 19:27Is found at the South point or sweat and sharp contrarian
- 19:29plays. Jumping in the stadium.
- 19:31Swimming pool when you. Catch a big ticket at Circa?
- 19:33You're. Going to walk up to me, show me
- 19:35a beautiful Minnesota golden. Gophers ticket from last night,
- 19:38that was a great game. Whatever you do.
- 19:40San Jose State, Nevada. Both dead to me.
- 19:43Both pathetic performances from both of those two.
- 19:46But anyway, guys coming off a one and two night or A2?
- 19:48In one night and O and three night, or a three and O night.
- 19:51A great night, a terrible. Night, whether we're on a hot
- 19:53streak or a cold. Streak or.
- 19:54Somewhere in the middle. We're always grinding.
- 19:56Embrace the grind. Because sports betting ain't
- 19:59easy. But you know what can make it a
- 20:01little bit easier? If we stay true to the numbers.
- 20:03And not our. Bias and our gut.
- 20:04Instinct. So if we.
- 20:06Can do that if we can find games that.
- 20:07Fit our model games that are simultaneously against the.
- 20:10Public with the House with the pros flap that.
- 20:13Avoid parlays and get that. CLV, If we can do that, we're
- 20:16going to be. Successful.
- 20:17Better as long. Term.
- 20:18So have. A great Wednesday night,
- 20:19everybody see if we can get a couple winners on the.
- 20:22College hard court. And of course, we'll be right
- 20:24back at it tomorrow for Episode 4. 28.
- 20:27Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast.
- 20:30Powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody.
- 20:32And I'll see you tomorrow.