Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Wild Thing | NHL & MLB Divisional Series & NCAA Football | 10/10/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Wild Thing | NHL & MLB Divisional Series & NCAA Football | 10/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this mad. But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: crown Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: What's up, everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports Saturday, October 10th.
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: I'm on no sleep here. Thanks for everybody except that
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: one guy who hung out for the college football show.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Last night, I got a few college football plays.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: I will reiterate those at the end of this show,
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: and we'll, I guess, look at the market reads and
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: see if they are still in alignment with me there. Yeah,
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: this show is going to be pretty much all hockey,
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: and then I will talk about the baseball game. I'm
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: skipping the hockey board today. I didn't think that would
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: be the case because a lot of games, 14 games
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: or something, almost every team is in action. I just
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: what can I say? I don't like the board. I
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: don't see an angle that's worth it. So, you know,
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about what I think are the stronger opinions,
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: I guess. And then hopefully the baseball play is going
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: to get there. And that's what I'm going to do.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Charles, what's up?
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: That's correct. We're going to skip it. All right. Uh, hockey. Yeah, this,
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: I just, Maybe I'll go through this and I'll see
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: something I didn't see before, but I don't think so.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: We have a couple afternoon hockey games.
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: 1 p.m., my Boston Bruins are hosting the winless Philadelphia
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: Flyers on NHL Network. I think right away, I mean,
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: you kind of have to assume that's misleading in some way, right?
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Like, Philly, I mean, they were a playoff team last year.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: Are they really... Like worthy of being a winless team
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: right now?
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: Probably not.
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: So that's probably going to have me leaning towards Philadelphia
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: in this game because you're probably going to get some value.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Two of their losses are in overtime.
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: One of them was that bad blowout loss to Pittsburgh.
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: Since then, I mean, this has not been an easy
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: schedule for them. Three of the last four games have
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: been on the road. The one home game they lost
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: after that was an overtime loss, I think, to the Hurricanes.
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, you can't really blame them for that. So
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: this Philly team, they're not as bad as their record
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: would suggest, at the very least. This might be a
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: spot where you lean towards them here. I mean, the
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: Bruins look too good after beating Utah. Bruins with a
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: 6-1 win the other day against Utah. This was a
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: game that Utah outplayed them, although you could make the argument, well,
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: Utah had a lot more shots, but part of that
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: was because Utah was just way behind in the game,
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: so they were just flinging up shots. But Bruins, for once,
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: actually did well on the power play, and they had
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: three power play goals in that game.
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: So there were some things that were misleading about it.
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: I don't think I really want to do it, but
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: I think Philadelphia is the right side in this one.
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: The Bruins are a very public side here because nobody's
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: going to put their money on a winless team, but
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: that might be the way to go here. 94% of
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: the tickets, 72% of the cash on the Bruins, so
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: they're a public side with less of the money on them.
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: Minus 130-something is the money line on the Bruins. Yeah,
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: I think Philly's the right side there. Vancouver at New Jersey.
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: New Jersey is going to be a huge favorite because
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: Vancouver is– Not good. New Jersey's only 1-2 right now,
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: but they're definitely the better team here. New Jersey hasn't
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: played since Tuesday, and they're coming off two losses that
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: were pretty bad by a combined 11-1 score. Losing 6-0
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: to the Islanders, yeah, that's not good.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: Turning around, losing to Utah. I mean, Utah's a decent team.
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: That's not as bad, but I think New Jersey, with
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: all this time off, they should bounce back, in my opinion, here.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: The problem is, I don't think you can lay... the
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: price that you're being asked to lay with them here either.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: And Vancouver's coming off.
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: A really bad loss.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: Well, not a bad loss, but they got killed by
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: the hurricane, 7-2. It's possible they're going to show up
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: as well and try to get something back here and
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: get a win after that.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: There are going to be some teams on.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: Back-to-backs today, by the way, as well, which I will
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: mention when I get to them. I think most of
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: the teams that played yesterday have today off, though. Basically
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: every other team is playing, but I think there are
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: two teams They're playing both days. In this game, New
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: Jersey has 85% of the tickets, 60% of the cash
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: on them. They're like a minus 280-something favorite, moved up
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: from an initial line of minus 260. Yeah, I mean,
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: the argument that you can make here is that New
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: Jersey is the better team, and they should be focused here.
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: That would kind of be the argument if you're going
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: with the New Jersey route here, but obviously the money
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: is kind of telling you The professionals are kind of
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: saying that they think that price is way too high
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: on New Jersey.
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: Maybe it is. I mean, it's a really high price.
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: It's a money line you should never really lay in
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: a sport like hockey or baseball where every game is close.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, I mean, would I want Vancouver? Not really, no.
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: But, I mean, I guess there are some arguments to
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: be had for playing Vancouver on the plus one and
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: a half puck line or whatever.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: That's not a game I want anything to do with.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: This next game up might be.
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: best opinion that I have on a side here with
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: Edmonton at San Jose.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: Edmonton is coming.
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: Off a big win over the Ducks, which I talked about.
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: That was a revenge game for Edmonton. The Ducks are
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year,
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: so you know they had that game circled.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: Now they're going to San Jose. I still think San
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: Jose might be.
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: A little bit of an under-the-radar team here, and Edmonton's
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: got LA on deck. LA is a team that's been
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: in the playoffs the last few years, so There maybe
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: is an argument here. This is sort of a sandwich spot.
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: I don't know how strong it really is, though. San
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: Jose is 3-1, so that makes them a little bit
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: less easy to overlook here.
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: San Jose just beat the Blues. I think that was
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: an overtime game. Let me see. Yeah, they beat St.
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: Louis on the road in overtime. San Jose is returning
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: home from a road trip, technically. They started on Monday,
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: so I don't necessarily want to play them either. You know,
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: what I always say, when a team returns home from
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: the road, I think it's a negative generally because they
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: get distracted having to get back to home life and whatever.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: Although, they're not going to overlook Edmonton, though.
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, Edmonton's one of the best teams in the
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: conference or whatever, so San Jose's not going to overlook them.
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: I think San Jose is the right side here. Edmonton's
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: like a minus 150-something favorite. Looks like they are getting
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: some of the money, though, even though they are also public.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: 73% of the tickets, 95% of the cash on Edmonton. Yeah,
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: I'm still going to lean San Jose in that one,
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: and it would be a fade of the public at least.
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: It would be, I guess, a money line play on
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: San Jose, probably plus 130 or so, but that's not
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: strong enough to be a play for me either. Minnesota
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: at Florida, the first thing I thought of with this
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: game is that Florida's returning home from a road trip,
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: so that's a negative, right? And it was a long
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: road trip. They have not played at home yet this season,
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: in fact. So Florida's been on the road since Tuesday,
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: September 29th. And they were in Carolina for that one.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: And then they went all the way out to the
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: West Coast starting on October 1st. So this is a
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: Florida team that's been away from home for a while.
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: And you know I talk about it. Definitely applies here.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: I think a team can be distracted when they get
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: home from a long road trip like that. There's stuff
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: to do at home. They have to go right back
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: out on the road on Monday. They got to go
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: play Buffalo. So this is one of those weird spots
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: where you have a single home game sandwiched in between
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: two road trips. I do not like the spot for
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: Florida here. I think Minnesota is going to be the
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: right side here. Florida just beat LA to wrap up
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: their road trip. Now it might be mitigated a little
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: bit because Florida hasn't played since Tuesday. So they do
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: have some time to get stuff out of the way
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: at home. But then again, you can make the argument
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: that it's going to help them settle back in at
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: home and it might, add to the distraction in a way. However,
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: they might not overlook Minnesota because Minnesota is known to
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: be a good team, so I'd probably prefer fading Florida
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: if they were playing some lesser team here. With Minnesota,
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: you'll get a more competitive line. Minnesota won't be as
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: big of an underdog, though, but it means it's more
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: likely Minnesota might be able to win the game. Minnesota
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: just lost to Tampa Bay on Thursday, so they have
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: less rest here.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: That was a tough game.
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to play Minnesota off a game
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: like that either, but they're already in Florida, so that
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: might be an advantage to Minnesota because they were in
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: Tampa two days ago, so they don't really have to
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: travel anywhere. They're staying in the state of Florida. Minnesota
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: does have Vegas on deck, though. Could maybe consider that
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: to be a bigger game. Florida might still be a
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: little bit overlookable right now because they didn't make the
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: playoffs last year, but I still think they are one
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: of the best teams in the league right now, unless.
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: We see otherwise.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: Florida looks like somewhat of a public side, 67% of
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: the tickets, 69% of the cash on them. They're about
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: minus 130-something here. I would lean Minnesota as the underdog
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: in that one. You get them probably in the plus
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: 115 range, something like that. That one I think is
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: nearly as good as San Jose, maybe actually even a
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: little bit better. Yeah, now that I think about it,
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: Minnesota might be a better play than San Jose, actually.
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: It's not going to make the cut for me, but yeah,
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: I think maybe I'm being too selective, but yeah, I
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: like the wild in that one.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: That's not why I call the show Wild Thing. That's
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: a reference to.
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: The Cleveland Indians because they have a big game today,
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: and Gavin Williams is pitching, and he's a wild pitcher, so.
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: All right, Utah at Buffalo. Utah, as I already mentioned,
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: is coming off getting destroyed by the Bruins, although they
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: did outshoot the Bruins in that game.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: It was a little bit misleading. This Utah team is
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: not that bad.
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: Buffalo, I think, could be a little bit overrated from
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: last year because they won the division last year. I
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: don't think Buffalo's that good. However, both teams look like
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: they're in focused spots here because Buffalo just had a
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: bad loss too.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Well, not bad, but they got shut out at home 4-0.
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: And in hockey and in baseball, especially in hockey though,
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: I think when you get a team that lost in
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: a shutout at home, it usually is a good idea
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: to play that team in the next game to bounce
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: back from that shutout. Now, it's not like an embarrassing
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: shutout because it was at the hands of Dallas. Dallas
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: is definitely good, but Yeah, Buffalo might bounce back from that,
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: but it looks like both teams are in bounce-back spots here.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: And that being the case, I mean, you know, the
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: under might be a possibility in this game, although the
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: total's a little bit high at 6.5. Money slightly indicating
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: on the under, although it is public, but the public
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: is not coming in on a college football Saturday and
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: being like, oh, yeah, give me the under in this
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: Mammoth Sabres hockey game.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? 83% of the tickets, 88%
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the under.
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: I just think under tends to be the way to
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: look when both teams are going to be focused, even
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: though I don't do a whole lot with totals. Maybe
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: that's the better approach in this game. The money is
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: also pretty strongly indicating towards Utah. Although, well, 55% of
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: tickets on Buffalo, I guess, isn't really that huge of
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: a ticket percentage, but 56% of the cash on Utah.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: It's basically a pick-em price. So the odds makers are
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: telling you Utah is the better team. And, you know,
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: if we go with both teams are going to be focused,
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: then the better team should get the win here. I
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: do think that is Utah, and that's what the oddsmakers
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: are telling you. I think Buffalo, the fact they won
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: the division last year, I think that overrates Buffalo maybe
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: a little bit here. So I'm not really going to
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: disagree with the Utah side there, but maybe an under
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: might make a little bit more sense. However, you know me,
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: I don't like going under high totals, though, and I
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: hate hockey unders.
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: In general because.
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: An empty net goal can just ruin you. You know
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: how often empty net goals happen? Because hockey is such
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: a close sport. There's a really good chance one team
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: is going to be winning by one goal late in
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: the game, and then an empty net situation sets up.
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: So I hate that shit. So hockey totals, I will
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: pretty much only go with an over if I do it.
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: And I almost did it today, actually. There's one game
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: that I like the over in, which I haven't gotten
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: to yet. Detroit at Montreal. Montreal is a pretty big
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: favorite here, man. Detroit not considered to be that good
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: of a team. The public might not really want to
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: lay a price with Montreal here because they're 1-2-1. They're
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: coming off an ugly loss to Nashville, but I talked
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: about that game. That was a game I gave out
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: a winner on Nashville the other day in that game.
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: Montreal had a close game against Carolina the game before that,
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: so I thought they were in a bad spot, and
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: they actually used their backup goalie in that game too, Fowler.
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: So Dobis, however you pronounce his name, he should be
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: back in net for Montreal here. He's their solid young goaltender.
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: He's their starter, which has been the case for a
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: couple years now. So he's going to be back in
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: net here. That should help Montreal. To me, it looks
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: like they're probably in a bounce-back spot, staying at home
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: off kind of a disgusting-looking loss. Detroit, and it was
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: slightly misleading, I think, as well. Detroit is coming up
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: a bad loss, too, though. They just lost 6-3 at
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: home to Seattle. which I think I got that lean
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: correct on the show. That was yesterday, by the way.
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: So Detroit is playing a back-to-back here. So like I said,
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: there are a few teams on back-to-backs today. Detroit is
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: one of them.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: I thought I talked about one of those teams already.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: Maybe I didn't.
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: Detroit is definitely one of them, and then there are,
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: I think there's only one other one, which I guess,
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: I think it's Columbus is the other one. Yeah, I
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: think those are the only two teams on back-to-backs today.
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: I think the rest of the teams that played yesterday
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: are off. But still, yeah, the back-to-back is not necessarily
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: a great spot. However, the odds makers are going to
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: shift the line in the direction of the team with
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: the rest advantage.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: So because Montreal has a rest advantage, you might be
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: paying a little bit too much for Montreal in the
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: market because maybe that rest advantage is getting.
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: Overrated a little bit.
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: Both teams probably should show up here, you know. Detroit
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: does have to travel here from Detroit, though, with no
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: days off. Detroit has not used a backup goalie yet
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: at all. They've used Gibson in every game. So that's
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: something to be aware of. Back-to-back, this might be the
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: first time Detroit switches to a backup goalie, although they've
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: been losing.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: With Gibson in that, though. So do with that what
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: you want.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: He hasn't exactly been that bad, though, except that Seattle
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: game looks like it didn't go well.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: But Detroit has not allowed a lot of goals otherwise.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: They just can't score right now.
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what to do with this game, man.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: It looks like both teams kind of in focus spots here.
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: The rest edge does go to Montreal. Montreal's too heavily favored.
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: They're also public, which I didn't really expect, but well,
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: maybe I did. Public usually you think wouldn't want to
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: lay a price like this, but 95% of the tickets
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: are on Montreal, 94% of the cash.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: They're like a.
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: Minus 210, minus 215 favorite here. Money is saying to
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: look towards Detroit here. You could take them on a
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: plus one and a half puck line. Maybe the market's
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: overreacting a little bit to the back-to-back scenario for Detroit.
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I don't have a whole lot
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: on this game.
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: And even though both teams might be focused here, this
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: is not a game where I'd be interested in the under.
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: The money's coming in pretty heavily on the over, and it's.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: A pretty high total. Again, it's 6.5.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: With Detroit having a backup goalie in there and whatever,
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: I would not want to risk it and try playing
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: the under there. But, yeah, I'm never going to play
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: a hockey under probably. But yeah, those are my thoughts
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: on that game, which are not much. Nashville is at Ottawa.
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: Nashville is coming off that big win over the Canadians,
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: as I mentioned a couple days ago. That was a
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: big win, a nice upset win, and they do have
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: Vegas on deck. But is that a bigger game?
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: It might be.
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think Nashville is still in the Western Conference, right?
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: So they might have more focus on that Vegas game.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: I think they might show up anyway, though, because they're
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: 1-1 on this road trip, so they probably don't want
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: to have a losing road trip here.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: But even so, If they're going to overlook.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: A game, it could be a game like this against
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: an Eastern foe where Nashville's coming off a big upset win.
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: They might actually switch goaltenders here, although I don't know,
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: because Saros is kind of a grinder.
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: They're not on a back-to-back here. I don't know. It's
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: possible they switch goalies here.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: There are some sites that have predictions as far as
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: what the teams are going to do with their starting goalies.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: I look at that sometimes, but this is a game
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: I wasn't really interested in anyway, though. But maybe Nashville
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: does use a backup goalie in this one Ottawa, they're
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: sitting 3-1. That looks pretty good. They're coming up with
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: a win over Philadelphia. I don't know how much weight
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: they're going to put into that game, that win over Philadelphia, though.
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: Omar should be back in net again here because they
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: didn't play him in their one loss. That was the
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: only game that Omar didn't play, which was against Detroit.
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, go figure.
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: And I was correct about Detroit winning that game. Just
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: a situational standpoint led me to that. But yeah, Omar
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: also happened to not play for Ottawa in that game.
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: He is obviously their better goalie. I believe he will
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: play today probably since he had that day off not
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: too long ago. Yeah, I think Ottawa might be the
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: way to look here. They're staying at home. I don't
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: think they're going to feel too high on themselves for
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: beating a winless Philadelphia team. Nationals coming up with a
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: bigger upset win. That's kind of a big game on deck. Yeah,
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, it looks kind of sandwichy. I don't mind
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: this one. I like Ottawa here, but the money is
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: all coming in on Nashville. I just don't understand it,
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: except for maybe it's because of the price. Ottawa, minus 169.
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: They dropped a little bit to minus 160. That is
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: pretty hefty, I will say. 75% of the tickets are
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: on Ottawa, 62% of the cash on Nashville. The oddsmakers
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: are telling you Ottawa's the better team, though, by lining
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: them like that. And to me, you'd think that the
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: public might not really think that necessarily because both teams
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: have you know like neither team has a much better
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: record than the other I don't think right so I
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: don't know but I think Ottawa sets up better in
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: this game in my opinion well Ottawa is three and
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: one I guess so you know I don't know maybe
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: the public would gravitate to that plus Ottawa was a
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: playoff team last year Nashville was not although Nashville was
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: fighting to make the playoffs towards the end of the
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: season I don't know man I think Ottawa is the
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: way I'd lean here the money is completely disagreeing with
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: it You'd have to make like a minus one puck
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: line on that or take Ottawa to win in regulation
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: if you wanted to do that. But I think it
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: might be the way to go, especially if we figure
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: out that Nashville has a backup goalie.
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: Let me see.
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: I'm going to look right now. On daily faceoff is
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: where I usually look.
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: It's unconfirmed, but this.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: site is predicting that it will be Saros again against
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: Allmark in that one.
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: So we'll see. Yeah, I don't know, man.
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: If Nashville was going to go with their backup goalie, Yeah,
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: I think Ottawa would be in consideration there, but all right.
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: Dallas at Pittsburgh. Dallas is the better team. The odds
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: makers are telling you what you should think about Pittsburgh, man,
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: with Dallas being like a minus 150-something road favorite in
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: this game. Yeah, the odds figures are telling you Pittsburgh
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: is not that good. Dallas is one of the better
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: teams in the league. Dallas is coming off two shutout
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: wins in a row against San Jose and Buffalo.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: But, you know, this might be a spot where they
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: just overlook Pittsburgh.
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: I know Dallas probably doesn't want to go 1-1 on
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: this road trip, but still, they got Colorado on deck, man.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: That's kind of a big deal, right? So, yeah, and
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: I believe, did Colorado finally beat Dallas in the playoffs
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: last year? Am I wrong?
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: I think I'm misremembering that. I think Colorado wound up
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: playing the Wild, right? The Wild eliminated the Stars last year.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: I think that's right. But still, that's a huge game.
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: Two games in a row against Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday,
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: one in each venue. So, yeah, this could be an
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: overlooked spot. Maybe Dallas is riding a little bit high
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: off that shutout win over Buffalo, but primarily this is
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: a look ahead for them to Colorado. So that has
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: me leaning towards Pittsburgh in this one. Pittsburgh's lost three
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: in a row, so that kind of would boost my
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: opinion on Pittsburgh a little bit, but they are in
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: a back-to-back. They played yesterday, and they're coming home from
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: a road trip, so I don't exactly love Pittsburgh for
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: that reason either. They're playing a third game in four
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: days as well, which isn't exactly great. Yeah, so on
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: the back-to-back, third game in four days, all in different cities.
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: I don't exactly love that. Silovs is going to be
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: back in net here because it's a back-to-back. He is
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: their primary goalie, although I don't think he's really that good.
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: They lost in overtime to Columbus yesterday. I was correct
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: with my Columbus opinion in that game yesterday. Yeah, I mean,
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: to me, it looks like Pittsburgh is the lean in
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: this game, and you'll be getting a little bit of
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: extra value there. Because of the back-to-back. I mentioned that
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: Dallas is like a minus 150-something favorite.
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they are.
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: And they're definitely the better team here, which might surprise
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: people because Pittsburgh had a good season last year, made
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: the playoffs, whatever. I told you not to trust Pittsburgh.
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're as good as they looked last year.
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: Dallas is definitely a legit team. But this line on
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: Dallas is also a little bit higher because Pittsburgh played yesterday, right?
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: So I told you Vegas is going to skew the
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: line a little bit against these teams that are on
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: the back-to-backs. So maybe you're paying a little bit too
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: high of a price for Dallas for that reason. I
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: think I would lean to Pittsburgh in this one. 83%
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 93% of the cash on Dallas. Like I said,
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh will have a goaltender at least that's rested here,
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: and he's technically their starting goalie. So that's maybe not
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: that awful for them, even though I don't think he's
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: that good, like I said. But yeah, Dallas is public,
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: even though it looks like some of the money is
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: on them too. But I think Pittsburgh is the way
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: to look there. Carolina at Chicago. Of course, Carolina is
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: going to be a huge favorite here. This is one
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: of the best teams in the league against one of
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: the worst. Chicago, even though they're at home, they're going
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: to be a massive underdog anyway. Chicago just had a
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: really hideous-looking loss at the Islanders, so I really don't
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: think they're good.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: Chicago is going to be back with their primary.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: Goalie in net this time, Knight, so that should help
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: them a little bit. Their one win did come with
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: him in net this season. so that should help Chicago
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: at least to some degree. Will Carolina overlook them?
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know, maybe. Carolina just won.
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: 7-2 against a pretty bad Vancouver team, although Vancouver was
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: playing pretty competitively this season up to that point. Carolina
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: used Kachetkov in that game, so it will be Busse
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: probably back in net. Well, I don't know, because he's
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: been really struggling, so Carolina has won both games with
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: Kochetkov in net, and they only allowed two goals in
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: each of them. So he's been their better goalie. There's
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: no question about that. So, you know, Carolina might be
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: making a change here.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Maybe in this game they will just
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: use Busse again, though. I don't know.
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: Carolina does actually play tomorrow against Philadelphia, so they're going
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: to be on a back-to-back tomorrow. Maybe they overlook Chicago here.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, probably Chicago is the way to lean here.
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: You're going to be getting them at a huge underdog
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: price if you do want them here. Carolina, very public,
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: 90% of tickets, 94% of the cash on them. We
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: all know they're the returning champs, whatever. Chicago should get
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: up for a game like this, returning champs coming.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: Into their house. Minus 240 or so is the price
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: on Carolina.
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: You'll be able to take Chicago on a plus one
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: and a half puck line at probably a decent price,
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: so get Chicago to come within one goal.
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: Maybe that is the right approach here.
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, usually that is the way I'm going to look,
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: playing on a team that is coming off a really
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: gross loss. Against a team that's coming off a blowout win,
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: so that seems to be the right way to go.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: Chicago, but do I want to really do it? No.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: Columbus at St.
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: Louis. Columbus is on a back-to-back. Nice win in overtime
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: yesterday against Pittsburgh. So Columbus– oh, yeah, Pittsburgh is also
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: on a back-to-back. I forgot to mention that.
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Columbus, Pittsburgh.
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: And I think I said Detroit is playing today, right? Yeah,
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: Detroit is also on a back-to-back. That means one of
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: these other teams is also probably playing.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: Oh, Anaheim.
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's also going to be at a back-to-back. I was
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: going to say, because that would be an odd number
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: of teams. So I think out of yesterday, it's just
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: Rangers and Washington. Oh, and I guess Winnipeg and Seattle.
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: Those four teams are not playing today. All right. Yeah,
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: so Pittsburgh's on a back-to-back.
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: I mentioned that already. Columbus on a back-to-back. They just
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: beat Pittsburgh yesterday. They have Florida on deck. That might
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: be a look ahead, man, even though Florida wasn't that
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: good last year. They still have kind of that name recognition.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: This is kind of a weird spot for Columbus to
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: have to turn around with no days off and go
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: to St.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: For a game, although the good thing for Columbus is
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: before yesterday, they hadn't played since last Saturday. So Columbus
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: shouldn't be this completely unrested team. They used Talbot and
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: Nett in that game, so they'll switch back to Greaves
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: most likely for this game.
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: Elvis, is that him?
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: No, Jet Greaves. Yeah, they all have weird names. I
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: was thinking of Elvis Merzlikens. I'm like, they all have
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: weird names, man. Yeah, Jet Greaves. I think he's going
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: to be back in Nett for this game probably for Columbus.
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: Although I am not a fan of really any of
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: their goalies anyway, though. St. Louis is coming off a
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: loss to the Sharks a couple days ago. Sharks off
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: to a good start this season. That was an overtime
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: game as well.
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: St.
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: Louis is just staying at home here. They've lost their
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: last three games, but one of them was to Chicago.
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: And San Jose is not bad either, I don't think so. St.
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: Louis, you know.
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: The spot looks better for St. Louis to me.
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: You will have to pay a little bit extra because
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: everybody knows Columbus is on the back-to-back.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: But the price isn't that bad on St.
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: Louis. It's about minus $ 130. The money is completely disagreeing
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: with this one too.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: But to me, I think St.
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: Louis is the right side here. 60% of the tickets
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: on them. 79% of the cash on Columbus. I do
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: not agree with that market read though. I like the
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: blues in this game at about minus $ 130 or whatever.
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: Like I said, they have the rest advantage, although maybe
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: you're paying a little bit too much for that, but
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: they're coming off a loss, whereas Columbus is coming off
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: a nice win yesterday. Kind of a weird travel spot
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: for them, so I prefer St.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: Louis in that one.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: NHL Network also has a primetime game. This is the
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: game that I like the over in, in Toronto at Colorado.
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: I just think both teams are not in a good
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: spot here.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: Colorado will be a big favorite here.
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: Toronto I don't think they're as bad as people think
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: they are though and they do a Bobrovsky now they're
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: alternating goalies though so it should be Stolarz back in
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: net this time although you know I mean they've lost
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: all three games with Bobrovsky in net although he hasn't
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: really been that bad though but the two games that
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: Stolarz played they won so it's actually kind of crazy
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: Toronto's 2-0 with Stolarz in net and they're 0-3 basically,
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: or 0-2-1 with Bobrovsky in net. So that's kind of
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: a weird goaltender split there where Stolarz has been a
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: winning goalie in every one of their wins.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: Every one of their wins has.
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: Had him in net, I mean. And he should be
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: in net here. But I don't want Toronto here. They're
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: coming off an overtime game against Vegas two days ago.
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: Going into Vegas and taking the Western Conference champs from
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: last year into overtime like that, That's a huge game, man,
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: and even though Toronto is not going to overlook Colorado,
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: that could take a lot out of you, putting in
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: an effort like that, taking Vegas into OT. I don't
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: know what Toronto is going to have left here after
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: that really, really tough loss.
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: Colorado, though, I don't like the spot that they're in either.
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: As I said, they're returning home from a road trip,
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: and they're coming off a blowout win of the Calgary Flames,
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: which is easy to do.
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: They've sucked.
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: But it's three games in four days for Colorado here.
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: And probably the worst part of this is, as I
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: mentioned already with Dallas, Colorado has to play Dallas for
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: the next two games. The first one is on ESPN
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: on Tuesday. Possible big look ahead here to Dallas. Those
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: two games are going to matter way more than this
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: game against Toronto. So possible overlook spot for Colorado here.
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: And they are technically returning home from a road trip.
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: although they were only away Wednesday, Thursday, so that's not
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: that bad, and they went to Winnipeg and Calgary, so
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: not a huge time zone change or anything like that here. Still,
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: I think because it's a negative for both teams, that's
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: why I'm kind of thinking the over makes sense. like
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: if you have a lack of focus I think that
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: tends to show up on the defensive end more than
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: the offensive end it looks like the money agrees with
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: me 63% of the tickets and 81% of the cash
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: on the over excuse me I'm looking at the wrong
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: game Um, that was the, uh, Columbus St.
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: Louis game. Wait, where is this game? Oh, here it is. Yeah.
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: 50% of tickets on the over 88% of the cash though.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: So the money's agreeing with me on this one too.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: The total is six and a half.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: So it is a high total, but you know, an
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: empty net goal could possibly help.
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: You as well.
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: Um, yeah, I like the over, this is one of
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: my stronger opinions actually in hockey, even though I'm not
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: a totals person. Colorado is also about a minus 220
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: favorite public is on that side 95% of the tickets
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: only 93% of the cash on them so the market
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: read is kind of saying to lean to Toronto I
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: don't want to do that after that huge effort they
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: had in that other game. I don't have a good
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: read on the side at all here. This game, again,
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: to me, it looks like lack of focus possibly. Well, Toronto,
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: it looks like it's just going to be that they're
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: going to fatigue.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: I think fatigue after playing two huge games in a
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: row like this, I think that can impact your defense. Although,
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: like I said, Stolarz has been their better goalie, though,
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: so that's the thing.
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: So I don't know if I necessarily want to fade him.
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: Colorado's goalies are both good.
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: The two Woods, Blackwood and Wedgwood, Uh, whichever one is
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: their primary starter, I think is actually going to be
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: back in net for this one.
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: I forget which is which at this point. Um, Blackwood,
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: I think, I don't know. Let me see. I think
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: it is. Uh, yes, Blackwood. I think it's going to
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: be back in net for them here.
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: Um, So, yeah, I mean, I don't necessarily want to
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: fade those two goalies, but, yeah, I think the over
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: is the way to look in that game. You know,
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, as good as the goaltenders might, you know,
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: even if you have a good goaltender, bad defense can still.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: Result in goals. You know, the goaltender can't do everything himself, so.
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: All right, Tampa Bay at the Islanders. Islanders not a
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: very good team, man, even though they're 2-2 right now.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: I don't trust them. The Islanders just beat the Blackhawks.
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: Not a big deal there. They're probably even worse than
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: the Islanders. Islanders still might get up for this game, though.
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: They're staying at home. Sorokin is their better goalie. I
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: think he might be back in net for this one
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: because he got a rest day on Tuesday. So he
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: might be back in net for this one here for
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: the Islanders, which would help them. Tampa Bay coming up
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: a big win over the Wild. So I think Tampa
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: Bay is... Possibly in a fade spot here. They only
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: have the Rangers next, though. The Rangers are off to
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: a 4-2 start, even though I don't think they're that good.
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: I was correct about them losing yesterday to Washington. But
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay, at the very least, maybe a letdown spot
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: off of Minnesota. I still don't really want this game,
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: but my lean would be to the Islanders in this one.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is very public. 92% of tickets, 94% of
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: the cash on them. They're like a minus 170 favorite.
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: So you'd be able to get the Islanders at a
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: decent underdog price, like make a plus one puck line
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: or something. In a game with a pretty low total, too,
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: where the money's coming in towards the under.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: So a.
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: Game that's going to be lower scoring does help the
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: case of the underdog as well. So I think that's
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: the way to lean in that game. Anaheim is at Calgary.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: Anaheim is on a back-to-back, as I already mentioned. They
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: got the win for us yesterday. They caught Winnipeg in
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: a sandwich spot. Anaheim got the win. Anaheim has been
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: using Dostal for every game so far in net. They're
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: going to switch to their backup goalie in this game, though,
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: almost definitely, because they're playing a third game in four
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: days now, all in different cities and a back-to-back. And
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: they're playing a very weak Calgary team, so expect Anaheim's
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: backup goalie to be in net for this one. They're
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: coming off a nice, satisfying win over Winnipeg, I would say.
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, I think Anaheim is kind of in a
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: fade spot here. Do I really want Calgary? Not really, no.
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: Although this might be the spot to try to play them,
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: although I did try to play them already against Seattle.
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: That didn't work out in that second game against Seattle.
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: This Calgary team has been awful, dude, just awful. They
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: look like they're the worst team in the league. They've
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: given up four-plus goals in every game. They've given up
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: six-plus goals in three of their four games. But they're
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: staying at home right now. They just lost pretty badly
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: to Colorado. Maybe this is a spot where they actually
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: show up and steal a game. I mean, Calgary's not
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: going to lose every game, man. I mean, this is
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: a hockey season. Even the worst teams are still going
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: to win, you know, 30-something percent of their games at
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: the very least. So, yeah, I think Calgary is probably
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: the way to lean here. And the price looks pretty
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: easy to play Anaheim. You're looking at, like, minus 120-something points.
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: And it's gone down a little bit from a minus-126
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: opener down to about minus-120.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: Some shops have it lower than that.
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: Including the Vegas Charbleen outfits here have that price even lower. So, yeah,
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: I think Calgary might be the right side here. Anaheim,
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: 86% of tickets, 93% of the cash on them. I
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: wouldn't read much into that cash disparity. I mean, they're
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: the public side. So, yeah, I think Calgary is the
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: way to look in that game. Then the last game, finally,
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: is L.A.
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: At Vegas.
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: Vegas is the better of these two teams, but this
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: could be a competitive matchup, possibly.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, these teams are in the same division. They
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: don't really like each other. L.A. was still a playoff
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: team last year. L.A.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: 's 0-3 to start the season, or really 0-2-1. But
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: they played Colorado and Florida, man. In the other game,
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: they lost in overtime on the road at San Jose.
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: So L.A. 's not that bad. I mean, they've had
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: a difficult schedule to start the season.
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: Vegas is not going to make it any easier, though.
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: A road game against Vegas. Then they have Edmonton after this.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: This is a really difficult start to the season for LA.
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: But they've had a few days off here after that
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: Florida loss. So LA, they have some rest here. I
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: don't know which goalie they're going to go with because
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: it looks like they kind of switched between two goalies here.
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what they're going to do with
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: their goalie here. But they are pretty rested here and
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: still looking for their first win. So LA should be
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: a pretty motivated team here, let's say. Vegas is coming
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: up with that overtime win against Toronto, which was two
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: days ago, I believe. Yeah, on the 8th, a shootout win,
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: in fact. And Vegas does have Minnesota on deck. You know,
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: even though this is a divisional matchup against LA, do
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: you think they might look ahead to Minnesota?
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: Maybe. I don't know.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: I mean, Minnesota is definitely one of the top teams
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: in the conference, so... I think I would probably lean
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: more towards this desperate L.A. team in this one, although
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: I don't really love it. But you'll get them, you know,
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: you can make a plus-one puck line on them or something.
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: Vegas is public, 93% of tickets on them, 71% of
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: the cash. So the money seems to be indicating towards
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: the Kings here. Minus 160-something is the price on Vegas. Yeah,
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: I'll agree with that money. I'll lean towards L.A. in
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: that game as well, trying to get their first win.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: They're definitely not as bad as their record looks. Calvin,
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: what's up, man? Texas A & M is one of
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: my plays. Wait, were you in the chat last night?
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: I don't remember. I thought I saw you in there.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: Maybe I'm thinking about yesterday morning, though. What's up, man?
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Texas A & M is my favorite play on
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: the board today, so that is on my card for sure.
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: I think it has a lot going for it. It's
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: a sandwich spot that Missouri is in. A & M,
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: I think they have new momentum after their last game.
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: You heard my breakdown on it you guys can go
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: go watch that show I did last night for the
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: full breakdown or I'll rehash it on Instagram shortly as
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: well that game is going to be at noon so
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: it is coming up soon I think it's at noon
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: Eastern yeah and the line just it looks way too
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: easy to play a ranked Missouri team only laying three
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: and a half at home Looks way too easy to
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: do that. The oddsmakers are telling you not to buy
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: into what the rankings are saying. The oddsmakers are telling
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: you these two teams are pretty evenly matched. So, all right,
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: let me talk about this baseball game. I do have
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: a play in this one. It's for the win in
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: the ALDS, man. Now, the road team has won every
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: game in the series so far. which is pretty insane.
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: We've gone to five games here after Chicago took the
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: first two in Cleveland. Cleveland flipped the script and took
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: both games in Chicago, and Cleveland started scoring a shit
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: ton of runs in the games on the road. However,
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: the first two games of the series, we had three
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: runs and seven runs scored in the first two games
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: of the series. So you know where I'm about to
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: go with this, man. I think Cleveland is a more
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly ballpark here.
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: Than Chicago is.
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: And usually you know this is what you want to
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: do in what's going to be a competitive game like
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: this teams are you know going to mix and match
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: pitchers I think both bullpens are okay even though I've
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: complained about the bullpen usage I know whatever but these
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: teams were off yesterday so that should help rest the
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: bullpens I think having a day off my cool off
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: the offense is a little bit and having to travel
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: and whatever even though it's a quick travel uh spot
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: here but you know what I'm doing with this. We're
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: going to take the under in the deciding game five.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: A lot of times you do want to look towards
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: the under in a series deciding game, but I think
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: the pitching is good enough to do this. I also
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: don't buy Cleveland's recent offensive explosions where they kind of
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: just unloaded against Chicago's bullpen the last couple of days.
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's going to happen again in this one, man.
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: I like to start pitching in this game too. I
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: think you actually have debatably you have the best starter
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: for the job on the on the hill for both
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: teams here so I think yeah this game I think
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: is going to be lower scoring Cleveland is still not
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: a good offense at all I think Cleveland's pitching should
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: be up to the task here as well Cleveland's got
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: the somewhat better bullpen although I think both bullpens are
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: decent um Cleveland's I would say is actually good um
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: the total right at the seven here i was hoping
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: to find a seven and a half but it was
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: the best i saw was like seven and a half
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: minus 130 so uh i think the best you could
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: do is to take under seven at plus money here
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: i don't know if it's going to get to seven
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: and a half probably not um The public, I don't think,
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: is really going to play this game, but it looks
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: like it's a public over, though, so who knows?
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: Maybe.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: Especially after the last two offensive explosions, you know? But
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: I think that's a little bit misleading. This Cleveland offense
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: is still not good, man.
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: So I expect them back at home.
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: I expect their offense to crash back down to earth
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: after what I think were outlier type of performances.
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: We have 89% of tickets on the over, 88% of
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over.
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: So the money seems to kind of agree with this,
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: at least in that it's a very public over here. Again,
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: we're taking the under here. Sean Burke is pitching for
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: the White Sox in this one. He was their best
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: pitcher this year. So even though he's not a very
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: experienced pitcher, he's pitched in the playoffs now at least.
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's going to be that intimidated by
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: this at this point, even though I know it's a
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: deciding game five here.
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: But 3.34 ERA for him on the season.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: 1.2 whip, yeah, I mean, I know that's not that good,
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: but he was good on the road. 2.58 road ERA.
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: The home road splits are in favor of both pitchers
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: in this game. Burke has made two playoff appearances already,
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: and he has a really, really good 14-to-1 strikeout walk
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: ratio over his 9-to-3rd innings in the playoffs so far.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: That is good.
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: His command has been on point in his appearances here.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: His appearance against Cleveland wasn't actually a start, though. That
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: was weird.
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: They brought him out of the bullpen early, In that one,
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: he was kind of the bulk workload guy in that game.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: That's fine.
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: He hasn't pitched for five days, so he's on basically
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: regular rest here. His ERA throughout the playoffs this season
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: so far, 3.86. But that was mostly because he gave
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: up three home runs against Houston. And you know what
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: team doesn't really hit home runs? Oh, yeah, that would
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: be Cleveland. And when he faced Cleveland, he held them
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: to one run in five and a third innings back
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: in game two of the series. So I think Burke
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: should do well here. Cleveland does not hit him particularly well.
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: They have 97 at-bats against him, and he has the
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: upper hand against them.
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: They have a.
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: 216 batting average, 599 OPS against him, 30-7 strikeout walk ratio.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: So all these numbers are definitely in favor of Burke.
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: And Cleveland only has one home run against him, which
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: is Hedges. you'd think it would be Ramirez but no
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: Ramirez is 0 for 10 with 5 strikeouts against Burke
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: and he's Cleveland's best hitter so there you go and
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: on the other side Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: I think he's debatably their best pitcher he's had a
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: really good season he's had really really good strikeout stuff
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: this season even though he is a little bit wild 3.76
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: ERA for him this year 1.11 whip he was way
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: better at home though 2.84.
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: Home here, right?
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: So I think this is going to be good for them.
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: The only negative I see here is the fact that
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: they used him out of the bullpen.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know why the fuck they did that. Why?
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: They were winning this game 9-5. Okay, let's bring in
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: Gavin Williams to pitch the ninth inning. I had the
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: game on, and then I looked, and I saw Williams
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: on the mound. I'm like, what the fuck is Cleveland doing?
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: I have no idea, dude. I don't know why they
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: had him pitch two days ago.
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: In the last game that these teams played, I'm going
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: to say maybe we don't have to be too concerned about.
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: That, though. He pitched an inning. He threw 18 pitches.
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: Maybe you kind of consider that to be sort of
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: almost like a bullpen session, although you're out there throwing
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: pretty much as hard as you can throw.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: But it was a low-pressure situation, though. You know what
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: I mean? They had a big lead.
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: He wasn't going to blow that lead, which, again, it
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: really shocked me they brought him in in that scenario.
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: Why wouldn't you just bring in one of your relief arms,
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean, to finish that game off?
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: You don't even need to use your closer. I don't know, man.
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: That was weird. But generally, Williams is good against the
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: White Sox.
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: They have 120 at-bats against them, a 217 average, 582 OPS,
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: 45 strikeouts. The only negative here is the walk number
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: is kind of high at 14. Even that's not even
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: that bad, though. So, yeah, Williams does have good numbers here.
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: The home road splits set up nicely for this. I
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: think this is going to be more of a pitching
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: duel this time. Both pitchers have the good matchup numbers here.
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: You know, we're... I guess pick both of these starters
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: must start, but again, we've seen weird shit happen in
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: the series, so it's not out of the realm of
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: possibility that both teams do something stupid, especially the White
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: Sox might put an opener in there in front of
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: their starter.
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know if they're going to do that again.
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: As of right now, this game's not until tonight, though,
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: but as of right now, these pitchers are as announced here.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: If these guys are going to be the bulk workload pitchers, though,
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: maybe you still want to do it and play action
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: on the under here. You pretty much know you're going
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: to get five, six innings out of Burke here and
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: probably about the same out of Williams. If you want
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: to be a pussy, I guess, maybe I am and
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: be a little bit safer. I have balls, man. I
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: play all these really ugly plays that nobody wants to play.
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: Maybe you do pick both these starters must start here,
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: Burke and Williams, just to make sure that you're getting
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: those guys. Cause they are a pretty big part of
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: the handicap is that these are good starting pitchers here. So,
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: and Williams, by the way, has the playoff experience. Uh,
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: he's been in this, you know, rotation for a while.
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: So he's been in their playoff rotation, uh, multiple, uh,
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: years in the past, I think.
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: So I think that's good as well. I think Williams
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: has done decently in the playoffs too, throughout his career.
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: So I like all that. Um, And again, I still
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: don't know what Cleveland's doing with Bybee. Bybee, I think,
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: was one of their guys they brought in out of
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: the bullpen the other day. He's not in their starting
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: rotation for the playoffs, whatever. Williams is better than Bybee anyway, though.
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: Williams is a really, really strong pitcher this year, man. Like,
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: his strikeout stuff was really good this year. He ramped
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: it up, man. Like, yeah, really, really good strikeout stuff.
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: All right, and that's going to do it. We got
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: a bunch of plays today. Oh, I forgot to mention,
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: I went 2-0 on the show yesterday. We got the
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: win with the Anaheim Ducks in that sandwich spot. Pretty
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: easy win, although it wasn't quite as lopsided as it looked,
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: but they had to lead the whole game, man. They
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: got out to a multiple-goal lead. They were up three
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: goals in the third period, and they maintained it, and
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: they wound up winning 5-1. I think maybe they had
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: one empty net at the end. And then Louisville was
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: a winner for us on the show as well in football.
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: Last night, after they were out to a 14-0 deficit,
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: Louisville completely flipped it around and dominated the rest of
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: the game and won and covered easily, so that was fun.
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: All right, no, I don't sleep. Not at all. You're
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: rooting for the Indians.
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: Oh, I forgot to mention, in that game, the money
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: is coming in on the White Sox as far as
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: the side is concerned. I forgot to mention that because
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: everybody wants to know what's my opinion on the side.
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: 51% of the tickets are on Cleveland, 64% of the
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: cash on the White Sox. Money coming in towards the
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: White Sox. Cleveland's about a minus 130-something favorite here. I
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: kind of lean Cleveland, though, man. I think you're getting
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: the slightly better pitcher with... I think you're getting the
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: better pitcher with better experience with Williams. And you're getting
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen with Cleveland. White Sox definitely have the
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: better offense, although I know it hasn't really looked like
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: it in this series.
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: But, yeah, I don't know, man.
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's the team with the experience. I think they get
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: it done, even though the road team has won every
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: game in the series. I think with the White Sox
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: blowing the 2-0 lead like this, Cleveland has all the
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: momentum right now after that.
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, I think I would lean Cleveland in that game,
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: but the money does not agree with me at all.
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: For today, go watch my football show from last night.
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: We have three college football plays. I'm being very selective,
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: but we're on Texas A & M plus 3.5, Oklahoma
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: in the Red River shootout plus 7.5, I like their
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: defense to get it done, man, and what I think
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: is going to be an ugly defensive slugfest. And, yeah,
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: I think Oklahoma's a little bit under the radar there.
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: I think it's also a Texas sandwich spot, and it's
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: an inverted bye spot. And then this is also a
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: sandwich spot. We're playing Maryland plus 33.5. We're fading Ohio State,
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: even though I think they're the number one team in
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: the country still. It's just all about the spot, man.
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: And Ohio State remains a very public side here.
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: So you know.
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: There's no easy market read to look at here with
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: the cash percentage also there but to me it looks
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: like you're just fading a hugely public side here i
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: think it is the right side the other two market
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: reads looked really good last night oklahoma that still looks
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: good to me that's a neutral site game by the
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: way it's always in the cotton bowl in dallas it's
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: like midway between the two campuses um even though it's
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: technically in the state of texas true um But a
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: lot of people in the Dallas area, I don't even
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: think they like UT Austin. You know, Austin, kind of
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: a gay city that's not really Texas. Sorry if I'm
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: offending people. I think Fort Worth is a better representation
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: of Texas than Dallas, though, so I'll offend everybody here.
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: I've been there, so there you go. I've been to
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: the bigger city. I haven't been to Austin, though.
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: Just Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston. All right, let me see.
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: And what was I going to say? Oh, yeah, the
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: money's coming in on Oklahoma. It's an extremely low total
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: in that game, too. So getting that amount, yeah, it
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: looks really good. And then for Texas A & M,
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: the earlier game, the money is still on them with
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: the ticket percentage on the other side. So, yeah, that's
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: a pros versus Joes, just like the Texas-Oklahoma game. All
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: those games look good, man. And like I said, there
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: were a few other games I did like on the
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: board here. You know, Penn State I thought was a
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: decent look. Catching USC in what I think is a
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: little bit of a weird spot. Looks like the market
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: read still looks good on that one. I liked Georgia Tech.
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: in an inverted buy spot. The money doesn't seem to
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: agree with that at this point, though, so I'm going
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: to have to figure out what I want to do
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: with that one.
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: What were the other games I called out last night?
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: I don't even remember now. Oh, Cal I think is
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: one of the better plays as well. It's an injured
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: player theory spot. And Virginia Tech crossing the country off a,
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: you know, really really uh like a really big game
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: against Pittsburgh that they lost so kind of a weird
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: spot for Virginia Tech there although it looks like some
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: of the money is coming in on VT in that
• 49:50
  Speaker 4: one but yeah I think Cal definitely the right side
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: there especially if you can get 10 on that one
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: I liked Oregon as well that's one of those ones
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: where it's like a it's an injured player theory spot
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: for Oregon but it also looks like a just a
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: weird line. Like, why would Oregon be laying that many points, right? Well,
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: the odds makers are telling you Oregon is still under-ranked
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: by the rankings makers, and UCLA is probably over-ranked by
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: the rankings makers, and the public is not going to
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: lay double digits against an undefeated team, which is UCLA.
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: But UCLA also.
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: has a negative bye situation because they went into the
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: bye with a 5-0 record, which I think is a negative. Although, yes,
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: Oregon also is coming out of a bye that they
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: went into on a good note as well. But, yeah,
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: I think Oregon is absolutely the right side in that game.
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: And I think UCLA is setting up to be a
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: bit of a public underdog. And I like the anti-public
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: favorite approach. So that one might make my pick seven
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: entry or whatever we're saying. I thought I had, like,
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: one other game that I thought was a pretty strong opinion.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: Maybe not, though. I don't know.
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: I'm just kind of eyeballing this and kind of going
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: through this and trying to remember what I even talked
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: about last night.
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, Ball State looked like they
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: might be a decent look. The money is coming in
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: that way.
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: I think it's a bad spot for Northwestern, but, you know,
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: you'd have to put your money on fucking Ball State, though.
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: That's, you know, yeah, whatever. Yeah, I mean, those are
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: kind of it, I guess. I don't know.
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: Arkansas, I don't mind, though, with Tennessee in kind of
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: a big look-ahead spot there. Tennessee has Alabama on deck.
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: And for those of you that missed it, I do
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: like Alabama to beat Georgia. This game, I think it's
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: going to still be in Tuscaloosa. I mentioned, you know,
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: you've got to worry about the hurricane phenomenon there, the
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: hurricane situation there, I should say. You've got to figure
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: that out. But it looks like that game is not moving. So, yeah,
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: I'm leaning Alabama on that one. Not a strong opinion,
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: I'm just saying, because that's the big game of the day.
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: That was my opinion in that game. And I also
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: said maybe you push back on the market read there,
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: even though it looks like typically it would be kind
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: of an under type of game. But maybe not, because
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: these are both offenses that can be explosive. And the
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: total dropped big time because of the hurricane. And it's
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: all about the wind, man. If there's not going to
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: be high winds in the game, I think there probably
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: is some value taking that over at the lower number there,
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: at like 51%. Because it's probably an overreaction. Unless there's
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: going to be a ton of wind, it's an overreaction.
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: Rain does not limit the offense as much as you think.
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: The wind is what really limits the offense. Rain causes
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: defenses to slip.
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: So that's it, man.
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: And then, like I said, we do have the under
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: seven in White Sox Cleveland as well in the baseball game.
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: I'm skipping the hockey board, but you saw my... Opinions
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: in hockey which were I don't even know what my stronger,
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: but I think Minnesota was one of my better leans
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: there in hockey To some extent San Jose a couple
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: of the other leans I had were totally against the
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: market So I wouldn't rank those as height. I liked
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: the over still in Toronto and Colorado as well Those
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: are probably the three strongest opinions.
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: There Yes, thank you.
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: Well, yeah, Austin is a capital city, but it's also
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: it depends a lot of capital cities are really small
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: and But yeah, it is where the government is. But yeah,
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, Austin, it's mostly because of the college. That's
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: where the University of Texas is. That's mostly why. And
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: it's become like this art scene there. That's going to
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: do it.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: Learn to Tone on Twitter. Learn to Tone on Instagram.
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: Like, subscribe to the channel here. You get notified when
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: I go live, which again, I don't sleep. We'll have
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: an NFL show tonight. I think I have three NFL
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: plays I'm going to give out. I think I like
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: them all quite a bit. I don't love the entire board,
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: but I do like the three plays that I'm going
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: to have. People might already kind of know because I've
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: kind of tweeted about them to some extent. And if
• 53:47
  Speaker 4: people can get into my head, they might know what
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: these plays are already. Hopefully we haven't missed any of
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: the better numbers. I don't think we have missed a
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: key number or anything on the plus.
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: I usually fade the public.
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: And in the NFL, the public usually keeps those lines
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: in check when you're fading them.
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: So what else?
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Learn to Toad on Instagram, Learn to Toad Twitter.
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: I think I already said all that. Listen on audio
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: to this show, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. We did not have
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: the Friday bump this week, unfortunately, after two weeks in
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: a row where we did. Whoever those thousands of people were,
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: jump ship, man. Maybe they didn't like my losing college
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: football weekend last week. Come back on board, man. I'm
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: not going to win every single weekend. The goal is
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: to win more than you lose, and I'm a little
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: bit hot right now. What am I, on a 4-0
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: little run over the last three days or something? Let's
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: keep this going, man. Last night went well. Picked the
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: right games. Yeah, Covered in Uke is my ukulele channel
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: on YouTube. Patreon.com slash Learn to Toto if you want
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: to support me there. Losercast, Tuesday nights.
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: I think that is it. Yeah, everybody can go. Yes,
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: people fickle. Yes, people... Pickle? What? Yeah.
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: People can go watch my football show from last night
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: to get the full breakdown on... I went over pretty
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: much the whole board except for the least.
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: The.
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: Games that nobody gives a shit about. Sometimes I will
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: have a play in some of those games, but I'm
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: kind of sticking... I tend to have plays in the
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: higher profile games, though, because you can find the rankings
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: maker error situations, and those games tend to be more public,
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: and I like to fade the public because I think
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: you do find line value in those games a little
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: bit more often. because the lines get skewed a bit
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: towards where the public is going to be in the
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: more popular games.
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: So, I don't know.
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: That's how it works out. Not always, but also in
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: some of the other games, we've already kind of lost
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: line value. Oh, I think I like Northern Illinois was
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: the other one that I liked, but that line got
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: kind of out of control and went through that key
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: number 10 and all the way down, but yeah, that
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: one's real ugly, but I like Northern Illinois in the
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: spot that they're in, and I think that's against Air Force,
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: but I had some question marks about it, because I
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: don't know how well they're going to defend the triple
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: option and whatever, but The spot looked pretty bad to
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: me for Air Force. I think it was Air Force.
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: But I like Northern Illinois in that one. All right.
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: I think that's it.
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: If people watch my show from last night, they can
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: go give that asshole that was in the chat a
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: bunch of shit.
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: That's going to do it. Peace.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on, hold.
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: On, not tonight.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: On Let me.
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: Pull you out That bad luck fights hard But it
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: me now Hold on, hold on.
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: You're still here now.