Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / WARNING: Wall St Flips Fast on Stocks 💥 + Stock Market News 22 April 2024

Transcript

WARNING: Wall St Flips Fast on Stocks 💥 + Stock Market News 22 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Will the stock market crash continue this week, as we predicted last week, or are things about to turn around?
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I'm going to explain to you exactly what is very likely to happen here, what the levels are at which to buy and sell, and much more so.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: A week ago I made a video where I walked you through why last week would very likely be a big sell-off.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Because the algo funds were selling, etfs were selling and we have buy.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: We have no buybacks because earnings are coming up and companies are not allowed to buy their own stocks before the just before they report earnings.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: And that was, of course, true because we've had like the worst week in the nasdaq in what?
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Six weeks at least, and it's been six weeks down.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: So we were right.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Where do we get that information from?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: There's a few bits that come together here.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: The first one is algo funds, so CTAs, as they're known, will sell on certain levels just because the computers say so.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: There's no human being involved.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: The selling just happens sort of by magic, and that was pretty negative last week.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Now this week, even if the market goes sideways, they're still going to sell.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: They're going to sell like 26 billion, and that means it's bad right.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: It's not good for the market, but it isn't quite as dramatic as last week.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: It is actually an improvement, and there are also two other things that could actually turn this week quite positive.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: One is, in the longer term, the whole macro situation and the data, I think, is nowhere near as bad as people make it out to be.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: The market is a bit schizophrenic, right?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: So in December, the market said there'll be six or seven rate cuts in 2024.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Now the market's saying there'll be like no rate cuts this year.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: And of course, both were nonsense and that's why we can make money trading, because the market overreacts in both directions.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: If you understand that, you can make some nice money.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: You want to understand how that works?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Well, come and join me tomorrow evening for live trading training at felixfriendsorg slash webinar and I'll give you my entire trading strategy for free how we make money, how we do it, how we automate it and how beginners can do the same thing.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: So that's one point, but we are getting Tesla reporting tomorrow and I think there'll be a shit show.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I think Tesla will report worse sales, worse revenue, declining numbers, more layoffs and everybody's going to go oh, my God, everything is wrong at Tesla, and it isn't.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: It's just turning into what it was always meant to be, which is a mass business Mobility as a service.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: That's what I call it, and it means it's not a car company, which is I know what all the Tesla right he's been saying.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: It's a company that provides subscriptions to move people about, plus all the other great stuff that they're doing over there, and that's going to be disruptive and it's going to be a shift.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Elon's been, you know, tying himself up in Texas all weekend.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: He cancelled his India trip.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: He's cutting prices, he's getting rid of people and he's doing what he should have been doing the last year.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: But he was a little distracted because he well, he's the richest man in the world and he wanted to do something fun.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: So he bought Twitter and, you know, got a bit activist.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: That's natural.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Now he's back to let's fix this thing.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: And are we going to see robo-taxis in the next two or three years?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: No, but are we going to see robo-taxis?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Yes, and who's going to pull it off?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Well, probably the guy who makes rockets come back down to Earth and land themselves, which is something that the NASA engineer said was impossible, and it's doing it at a tenth of the cost of what NASA had been doing.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, that's probably the guy I put my money on.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: So I think in the long term, tesla will do great.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: But for this week there are two levels to watch out for, and then I'll give you the third.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: On the downside, if we drop below 4,850 on the S&P 500, selling will ensue Quite a lot of it.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So watch out for that.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: On the upside, 5,000 is a massive resistance level and that's because it was the massive support level last week and it almost held.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: It almost did, but then it didn't and that therefore now becomes a massive, massive resistance.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: On the way up, it's going to be a hard nut to crack.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So I would say we're going to trend somewhat sideways, unless something glorious happens and some glorious, great news comes out which makes you want to jump into the beautiful pool here behind me as I'm about to head off to the airport and go home, and that is, of course, microsoft and Meta.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Both of them, I think, will have stellar earnings and both of them, or even just one of them, would be enough to turn sentiment around and for us to go.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Ai is the future.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: It'll make us billions, trillions, quadrillions, and if that happens, I think momentum will shift.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: We also have PCE inflation coming out, which is the Fed's favorite data point in the world.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: That's what Papa Powell talks about at night.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: To his lovers he says darlings, what do you think PCE data will be this week?
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Lovers, he says, darlings, what do you think PCE data will be this week?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Well, at the moment it's sitting, I think, at 2.6%, not too far off the 2% which is sort of the target overall, and therefore, if that comes in a little bit softer this month or next month, with a few little bank failures and so on, we are going to get some rate cuts this year, in my opinion.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I think it'd be idiotic to keep it that high, because they do know they will bankrupt the lower income classes pretty much already done that but they will also bankrupt small businesses because they actually pay the high interest rates and also bankrupt the US government, which can't be good for anybody in the long run.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, who would pay for all that money that you guys keep sending to the Ukraine and anybody else who basically wants to start a war?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So I think there is some good opportunity here from Wednesday onwards for things to improve, but if not, we're going to see a slightly boring, slightly miserable, moderately down sideways trend.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I'd say we drop below 4,850.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: You know, the gates of hell will open up.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: They're not quite, but selling will be much stronger.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So what am I doing?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I'm closing some of my bullish positions because they're not making any money and I'm going to take profits on some of the bearish ones who are making money.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: That's the smart thing to do.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So if you want to write down the two numbers 4850, 5000, those are the two levels that I think we're going to be between, unless something big happens here and I will be live again tomorrow at our usual hour.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I miss our live streams.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I'm back from the island.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: We managed to get back here and that was despite, you know, planes and flight delays and weather and all that kind of stuff.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: But the nice thing is when you don't have a job to go to and we don't have anyone to answer to and you don't really care whether you pay for an extra hotel room or not, it doesn't stress you out and it used to stress me out.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I used to be the guy who sit in the back of a taxi and stare at that meter and it was terrifying because I was just like I just don't have the money, I just don't, can't afford this kind of thing.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: And if it went up in extra, I thought, oh, this is going to be a 20 ride.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: And it became, if it came in at $23 or $28 or something, it would stress me out, really stress me out, and I haven't looked at a taxi meter in years.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I have no idea what they are.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: I barely know what the room rates are, and not because I'm squandering money, but just it doesn't really matter.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: And I think everybody should be in that place and everybody can be in that place.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: It's essentially a knowledge and a mindset gap and I spent some time with a lovely person this week.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: He was telling me he needed 50K to finish his house he was building and we're talking about his business and what he could do to grow it and so on and I gave him a few bits of advice and I said you can do this by the summer, easy.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: And he said no, no, never.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: This will take me five years and it's just a mindset gap.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I know you could do it in the summer, by the summer, but he probably won't because his mindset won't allow him and we all live in boxes.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: We all live in little containers where we build walls around ourselves, so what we think is and is impossible, and that's a big thing.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: That's holding people back.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So loads of people think I can't make money with trading, I'm not smart enough, or if it would work, everybody would do it.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: And loads of people are thinking I can make 5K a month or 1K a month or a million dollars a month or whatever the number might be for you.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: And how does it change?
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Well, for me it changed when I met traders who were actually making money.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So then I accepted this as a possibility and I also realized they weren't the smartest tools in the box necessarily, and therefore I thought well, if they can do it, I think I can do it.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of what we need, and that's why I always encourage people to test things, try things, give things a chance, with a limited risk.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Of course, like the way I teach it, there's zero risk because we use simulators.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: So come and join me tomorrow, felixfrenzorg slash webinar, and just see if this is something that's for you and if it is brilliant.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: If it isn't, it might have just widened and enlarged your container a little bit so that you can find the next thing, or you can just make more money another way, and that's ultimately what's going to get you to the freedom that you want, that you deserve.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: And there we are.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I wish you a glorious start to the week.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I'll be back live tomorrow.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I look forward to it.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Take care, winston and Felix here, and Winston just said to me Felix, it's almost April, what stocks are we buying in April?
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: And I thought, winston,