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Allie Blades RETURNS! | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: chartered flights. For more, visit helijet.com. It's Thursday, October 1st, 2026,
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  Speaker 1: and this is Political Capital Daily. Well, good morning. Welcome
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  Speaker 1: to October, new month, same election campaign. or depending on
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  Speaker 1: how you're feeling this morning on Thursday as we carry
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  Speaker 1: our way through the week after a stat on Truth
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  Speaker 1: and Reconciliation Day on Wednesday. Joining me, very excited to
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  Speaker 1: have her back on the show. You know her and
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  Speaker 1: love her, Allie Blades, political capital prime, OG member, A
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  Speaker 1: longtime conservative strategist has been off celebrating life and a baby,
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  Speaker 1: but is back now in the mix. Allie, hello.
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  Speaker 2: I've missed you.
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  Speaker 1: Well, we've all missed you too. And we've started a
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  Speaker 1: daily podcast in the interim. So we've super maxed all
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  Speaker 1: of the content and appreciate you getting up early in
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  Speaker 1: the morning to chat about politics with us.
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  Speaker 2: Of course. And I mean, we're in the middle of
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  Speaker 2: an election, so doesn't everybody do that? Wake up, talk about,
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  Speaker 2: think about elections?
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  Speaker 1: I think so. Some people, some people, the normies, we
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  Speaker 1: call them, probably don't. But in our world, we are
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  Speaker 1: all the nerds. And that's what we do. And this morning,
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  Speaker 1: if you're planning your day out this morning, the big
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  Speaker 1: item today to watch for is Prime Minister Mark Carney,
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  Speaker 1: Alberta Premier Daniel Smith in Alberta. for what's expected to be,
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  Speaker 1: and there's a whole bunch of anonymous sourcing going on
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  Speaker 1: in stories from Ottawa already telegraphing this, a declaration of
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  Speaker 1: the new West Coast oil pipeline in the national interest,
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  Speaker 1: which would take this $ 40 billion project we've been talking
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  Speaker 1: about for months now that is mostly federally and provincially
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  Speaker 1: owned and turn it into a project where permitting would
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  Speaker 1: be faster, Ottawa and the Prime Minister's office would be
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  Speaker 1: fully behind it, and it would be supercharged from Alberta
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  Speaker 1: to the Roberts Bank terminal in Delta, which has been
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  Speaker 1: Alberta's plan, that would be upgraded for Supermax tankers. And theoretically,
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  Speaker 1: the past stories that have been done on this indicate
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  Speaker 1: that if everything goes according to plan, the thing could
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  Speaker 1: be starting to be built next September. But we'll hear
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  Speaker 1: the latest from the Premier and the Prime Minister this morning.
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  Speaker 1: So that's a big issue, Ali. We've been talking about
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  Speaker 1: the oil pipeline in BC for for a long time,
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  Speaker 1: and a lot of times it was a very big
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  Speaker 1: provincial issue. People were seized by it, and now it
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  Speaker 1: lands in the middle of an election campaign. How do
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  Speaker 1: you think it's going to be received and talked about,
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  Speaker 1: and does it become a big election issue, do you think?
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  Speaker 2: There was a time years ago where a federal announcement
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  Speaker 2: in the middle of a provincial election would have the
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  Speaker 2: ability to really... ensure that those political divides were there.
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  Speaker 2: But we're in a time now where that doesn't really
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  Speaker 2: exist anymore. And maybe that's a little bit of the
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  Speaker 2: fact that we're in an affordability crisis. So money is money.
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  Speaker 2: But also because most campaigns across the country, whether they're
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  Speaker 2: on a municipal level, municipal, provincial, federal, in any jurisdiction,
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  Speaker 2: it's not as if you're running against your traditional opponent.
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  Speaker 2: there's an element of the United States and Trump. And
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  Speaker 2: then for those reasons, we have a bit of a
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  Speaker 2: shared enemy in that regard. And so those traditional NDP
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  Speaker 2: attack lines or how we would position the NDP against
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  Speaker 2: something like this, that's not there. And then, as we
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  Speaker 2: have seen recently, it also creates a bit of a
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  Speaker 2: challenge for Democrats the center right, because they would always
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  Speaker 2: just say, well, you know, you're saying no to projects
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  Speaker 2: and you're saying no to the pipeline. Well, no one's
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  Speaker 2: going to say no to this. There are going to
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  Speaker 2: be certain parameters to making sure that we're protecting our
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  Speaker 2: coastlines and protecting certain lands across where the project would go.
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  Speaker 2: But we're not unilaterally saying no. And so it creates
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  Speaker 2: this place where we all have to be very creative
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  Speaker 2: as to how we are different because ultimately elections are
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  Speaker 2: this is what i stand for this is what they
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  Speaker 2: stand for who would you pick but if we're all
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  Speaker 2: saying yes to the project we have to be very
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  Speaker 2: creative and but also very specific of this is how
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  Speaker 2: we are different so yeah different from before but this
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  Speaker 2: it could be very.
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  Speaker 1: Exciting I wonder what BCNDP leader David Eby will say,
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  Speaker 1: because he has been in the past kind of begrudgingly
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  Speaker 1: acceptant of this. Only near the end has he got
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  Speaker 1: to the point of being like, well, if it happens,
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  Speaker 1: I can't stop it. I don't know if he's going
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  Speaker 1: to come out and maybe be a little more enthusiastic
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  Speaker 1: during an election where he's pumping mining and LNG and
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  Speaker 1: other natural resources. Maybe he'll lean in a little bit
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  Speaker 1: and say he actually thinks this is a good idea
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  Speaker 1: right now and use Trump as the excuse to pivot.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know. But that That messaging is what I'm
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  Speaker 1: kind of watching for today to see how far EB
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  Speaker 1: changes on the pipeline and what that does, to your point,
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  Speaker 1: everyone else kind of being in agreement on it, except
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  Speaker 1: for the Greens. It gives the Greens another chance. Ali,
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  Speaker 1: I was just talking to Jillian about this on yesterday's show,
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  Speaker 1: to really differentiate themselves. Sometimes they're the only ones talking
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  Speaker 1: about the environmental impact, talking about housing and renting affordability
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  Speaker 1: and childcare in this early campaign, and they'll have a
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  Speaker 1: chance to come out against the pipeline for those people
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  Speaker 1: who don't support the project. They only have one voice
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  Speaker 1: speaking to them on that, and it's the Greens, which
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  Speaker 1: puts them in a really interesting position, I think.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just thinking that myself, right, is depending
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  Speaker 2: on how David Eby responds to the announcement will really
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  Speaker 2: be a signal of what voter base he's trying to get.
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  Speaker 2: You know, campaigns are all about polling and calculated decisions,
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  Speaker 2: and nothing is said without a lot of people talking
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  Speaker 2: around a boardroom. and thinking, no, this is what we
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  Speaker 2: should and shouldn't say. And so if he thinks that
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  Speaker 2: his votes could come from the green side, we'll see
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  Speaker 2: a very cautious David Eby. But if he thinks he's
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  Speaker 2: actually going to be able to get some votes from
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  Speaker 2: the center or right, he might push that mining pro-resources messaging.
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  Speaker 2: So that'll be a bit of an interesting indicator.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it'd be fascinating to watch and we'll play some
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  Speaker 1: audio from what he has to say in tomorrow's show.
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  Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break and then Ali is going
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  Speaker 1: to come back and talk a bit about where we're
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  Speaker 1: at in the election campaign. Well, Political Capital Daily Free.
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  Speaker 1: And every morning in your pop box, thanks to our
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  Speaker 1: Back to the show. All right, Ali, I've lost track
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  Speaker 1: how many days we are actually into this election, but
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: so much has happened in the conservative world in the
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  Speaker 1: last three, four weeks since Carolyn Finley departed as leader
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  Speaker 1: to this kind of incredible movement to get everyone to
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  Speaker 1: create a conservative party on the fly here to contest
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  Speaker 1: an election campaign to the first week in a bit
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  Speaker 1: of announcements. How, what do you, You are in the
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  Speaker 1: middle of all of this in the sense that, you know,
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  Speaker 1: you're a political person. What do you think, how do
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  Speaker 1: you think it's gone for the parties for the last
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  Speaker 1: few weeks and the launch of this campaign by David
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  Speaker 1: Eby and the public reaction and just sort of give
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  Speaker 1: us your kind of top level thoughts here.
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  Speaker 2: You know, I don't want to be overly partisan, but
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  Speaker 2: this is where I have to be because I'm just
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  Speaker 2: so surprised how much David Eby has shot himself in
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  Speaker 2: the foot here. Okay, think about it. It is you
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  Speaker 2: that launched this campaign. This was completely in your hands.
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  Speaker 2: And I just didn't see this like, emphasis of a
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  Speaker 2: strong campaign at the very beginning. What I saw was
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  Speaker 2: someone who looks like an opportunist. And so I thought
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  Speaker 2: to myself, okay, well, if they are going to do this,
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  Speaker 2: if the NDP are truly going to put us in
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  Speaker 2: an unnecessary campaign, then surely they are confident that there
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  Speaker 2: is strong messaging, a strong appeal because a lot of
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  Speaker 2: people are going to be angry that we are in
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  Speaker 2: the middle of an election at the same time of
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  Speaker 2: a municipal election. And there were a lot of people
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  Speaker 2: that were asking him to delay it, postpone it. And
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  Speaker 2: yet he still went through with it. And so for
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  Speaker 2: all of that, I thought, surely they must have this
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  Speaker 2: winning strategy. I'm just not seeing it because what I
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  Speaker 2: don't think that they realized was that there was a
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  Speaker 2: sneaky opposition in Lauren Dirksen. and how he has come
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  Speaker 2: across as being that person that you can see opportunity with.
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  Speaker 2: And he's just a nice guy, and he would never
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  Speaker 2: do this to the province. And so that contrast now
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  Speaker 2: is something I don't think that the NDP expected, and
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  Speaker 2: it shows, because they're not as strong as I thought
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  Speaker 2: they would be.
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  Speaker 1: No, you're right. Of all the people to choose, and
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  Speaker 1: Lauren Dirksen seemed to have been chosen because everyone in
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  Speaker 1: the conservative caucus on both sides of the issues of
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  Speaker 1: KLF and not KLF liked him. And they inadvertently perhaps
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  Speaker 1: chose someone that voters might like too. And I don't
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  Speaker 1: know if that was the intention. I think the intention
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  Speaker 1: was just to kind of get someone in place that
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  Speaker 1: was like everyone could work with. But that attribute seems
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  Speaker 1: to be one the conservatives are able to seize upon
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  Speaker 1: now and say, hey, actually, you know, we like him.
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  Speaker 1: Maybe voters will like him too. And it's coming across
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  Speaker 1: in the early stages of the campaign.
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  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, and as I said earlier, I think maybe
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  Speaker 2: he thought, David Eby thought, that this was a campaign
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  Speaker 2: that he could run against Donald Trump, and that was
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  Speaker 2: going to be the messaging, and he wouldn't really have
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  Speaker 2: to worry about an opposition in the Conservatives' centre or
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  Speaker 2: even the Greens, because the Conservatives at the time, where
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  Speaker 2: I think he was making these political calculations, were not
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  Speaker 2: in a good place, not unified. Polling was down, fundraising
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  Speaker 2: was down. And so he took the opportunity to take
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  Speaker 2: advantage of that. But sure enough, we pulled a fast
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  Speaker 2: one on him.
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  Speaker 1: The Trump issue. So we've seen a poll from Angus
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  Speaker 1: Reid that listed Donald Trump as the seventh most important
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  Speaker 1: issue for voters, way down the list. And the Leger
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  Speaker 1: poll that came out just a day or two ago
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  Speaker 1: has Donald Trump at sixth. And the main issues continue
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: to be cost of living, health care, the economy, public safety,
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  Speaker 1: pretty much everything else. What do you take away from
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  Speaker 1: those two polls putting Trump so far down, yet the
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  Speaker 1: continued focus from the NDP on Trump is the center
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  Speaker 1: of their messaging?
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  Speaker 2: It is and it isn't though, Rob, right? Because the
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  Speaker 2: affordability piece, how we're able to respond to our emergent
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  Speaker 2: healthcare needs, that's all layered under Trump, right? Things are
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  Speaker 2: more expensive now. People are a little bit more worried
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  Speaker 2: about these domestic comforts because of him, too. And so
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  Speaker 2: where maybe he thought this was a Trump election, it
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  Speaker 2: is an affordability election, I think, ultimately. But we're never
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  Speaker 2: going to escape him because David E.B. has this nasty
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  Speaker 2: habit of blaming him for everything and doesn't take any
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  Speaker 2: responsibility on his own. And so that's an easy out.
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  Speaker 2: Surely it's the way that he has continued to deflect.
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  Speaker 2: And we'll see a lot of that during this campaign
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  Speaker 2: as well. But everything is really as a result of
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  Speaker 2: international politics.
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  Speaker 1: What do you make of the centre-right as it exists now,
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  Speaker 1: this far into the campaign? There's still Centre BC. There's
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  Speaker 1: still 1BC. The polling from Leger has them both at 5%.
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  Speaker 1: And their current candidate selection has them down, and I
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  Speaker 1: think they're in the teens, both of them. So I'm
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  Speaker 1: not sure they're going to contest a full election in
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  Speaker 1: terms of 93 candidates, but are they still around as
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: potential spoilers in writings? Or what's your read on that now?
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  Speaker 2: Other than your avid listeners, who really paid attention to
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: that musical chairs of MLAs moving over to center BC,
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  Speaker 2: MLAs coming back to the conservative party of BC? I
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: think for the most part, People didn't really pay attention
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  Speaker 2: to it other than understanding that it was a little chaotic.
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  Speaker 2: Very similar to the last provincial election where we had
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  Speaker 2: a record number of independent candidates. I think this is
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  Speaker 2: still very much a similar effect. They are now under
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  Speaker 2: one umbrella, but... It's not a whole lot of time
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: to build provincial party infrastructure, to fundraise, to make sure
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: that you're recruiting candidates, but they are to their credit.
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  Speaker 2: But it's just not enough. It requires a lot of
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  Speaker 2: money and a lot of time, a lot of smart
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: people in the room to make sure that every announcement
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  Speaker 2: is the right one for specific communities. And it's a miracle.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: that the Conservatives have been able to do this in
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: such short order, which again goes back to my point
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: of David Eby had the runway because he created the runway.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: He had all the time to build up all of
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: this campaign infrastructure and why I'm a little disappointed that
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: he's not really putting up much of a fight because
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: it's kind of a bland campaign on that side. Meanwhile,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: the Conservatives kind of built this overnight and we're giving
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: him a run for his money.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I'm still, maybe I shouldn't be surprised. I don't know.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember previous elections, but we're a week
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: and two days into this election, and there are only 63,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: credit to Hugh Chan here for his election tracker, 63
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  Speaker 1: new Democrat candidates in place out of 93 for a
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: snap election they called, knowing they were calling it and
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: working behind the scenes to get it ready. Is that weird?
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  Speaker 1: Or am I off? I guess maybe they could roll
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: them out slowly over time, but we're a week in.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: People got to make signs and Do stuff. How did
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the NDP launch a snap election without having their candidates
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: in place is what I'm sitting here wondering.
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  Speaker 2: Well, on the strategy side, it's not uncommon to look
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: at the sequence in which you're rolling out candidates. So
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: if they are holding off because there is a strategy
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: behind it, kudos to them. But if they're holding off
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: on this because they didn't have anybody and they weren't prepared,
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: that's where I think, and I go back to was
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: this David Eby being a bit of an opportunist? Was
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: he looking at the other side thinking, this is my
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: moment because this is the most dysfunctional that they will be,
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: so I have to do this now? I don't know either.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know the answer to that. I mean, I've watched, like,
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  Speaker 1: for example, the first week of the campaign, Eby rode
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: around in a bus that has no wrapping on the
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: outside of it. They got a bus in place, but
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: there's no NDP logo, Premier's face, nothing. It's just a
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: white bus, which is How could you launch an election
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: campaign without that? If you're launching it on your timing,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: plus your candidates, plus your messaging, I just, it feels
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: weird to me, but maybe you're onto something there that
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: they just, they just went on a snap literally within
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: themselves too.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And as I understand, like even their members are
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: kind of half and half about this. And so some thought, yep, great.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: We have to, run an election right now because we
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: have to have a full majority, but they did have
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: the majority. So who are you polling here? And then
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: others were like, no, we have to really wait because
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: it's not fair to British Columbians to call this in
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: the middle of a municipal election. So from my understanding,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know if even the NDP membership was fully
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: aligned in this.
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  Speaker 1: And could that be why we haven't seen any rallies
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: in the first week? Like in previous election campaigns, the
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: ones that are scheduled, there's massive rallies right away. You
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: get into a big hall, the Croatian Cultural Center or something,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: and there's a thousand people in there and they're screaming
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: and they're cheering and you get energy and momentum and
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: you display these visuals and stuff, not even remotely close,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: nothing like that from the NDP side. And maybe it
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: doesn't fit in with their messaging on Serious Times and
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Trump and sober messaging, or maybe they don't have the
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: membership base right now willing to do that? I don't know.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Who knows? But I did read something recently. You know me,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: I love to follow the political trends, mostly so that
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: I can make sure that I'm offering good advice. And
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: I read something recently about just how serious conversations are
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: right now on policy. Even think about Thanksgiving coming up
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: and the types of conversation you're going to be potentially
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: having with your family and friends. They're very serious. People
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: aren't in a rally mood. They're on what are the
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: smart solutions to fix this and get us out of
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: tremendous debt to make sure that I have a good
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: life that has optimism in it. Just back to the
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: basics there. And so I just don't think we're in
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: rally times. I think we're in a sit with the
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: candidate at a coffee shop and tell me straight into
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: my eyes how you're going to fix this province. Because
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I don't want to hear... the stump speech, where you're
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: delivering it all across the province right now. I want
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: to hear how you're authentically going to be able to
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: solve my problems because I can't afford life right now. Yeah. Okay.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: No, that's a good point. Super interesting campaign to analyze
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: when it's done too. So we'll, we'll dig through those
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: tea leaves afterwards, but One more reading recommendation for folks.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I put this on my social media. I don't know
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: if you've read it, but this is the Globe and
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Mail's columnist, Robin Urbach, who has a column that I
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: wish I had written about this BC election. I'll just
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: read a couple sentences from it off the stop because
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: there's so many lines that I wish I'd had. BC
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: NDP leader David Eby is a shrewd, confident competitor. He
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: will challenge anyone currently suffering from a stomach virus to
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: a hot dog eating contest. He will dare any chess
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: champion to a tournament when they are sleeping.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: Mr.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: Eby will tackle a bear in a cage from the
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: outside without actually touching the bear or wrestle any and
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: all comatose patients in their beds. If he had been
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: given the opportunity, I'm sure he would even laced up
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: his skates in the 1994 US figure skating championships to
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: compete against a compromised Nancy Kerrigan. Oh man. And there's
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: a metaphor in here where this describes David Eby fighting
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Trump as the equivalent of the younger brother of in
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: front of a video game console being given the controller
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: that's not plugged in so they can mash the buttons
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: without screwing up the game while the actual older brother,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: in this case Mark Carney, plays the game for stakes.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: I just thought, oh, sweet mercy. If you haven't read that, listeners,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: go have a read of it. It is quite a
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: column in the Globe and Mail from Robert Urbach. I
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: wish I had some of those lines, Ellie. If I
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: could turn back time, if I could find a way,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: I would do it.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: That was good. That was really good.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Thank you for being on the show this morning.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: Oh, thank you so much for having me back. I
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: truly missed you and Jeff and Jillian and others. Certainly
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: not as good as Angelo, but I'll try.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Angelo's great too, but we're happy to have you back
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: and thanks for doing the show. And we will check
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: in with you as well on everything that's occurring in
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: BC politics. Thank you listeners for listening. Make sure you subscribe.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow with all the latest in BC
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: politics here on Political Capital Daily.