Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Super Bowl Betting Bonanza

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Super Bowl Betting Bonanza · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Shad Millman. It's Super Bowl five week. I'm
0:18
Speaker 1: gonna be joined by a professional better, Simon Hunter. It
0:24
Speaker 1: is a strange super Bowl week. There's no media days,
0:28
Speaker 1: there's no NonStop coverage in the way we're used to it,
0:31
Speaker 1: no radio row as we know it. It's the Tuesday
0:35
Speaker 1: before the super Bowl. And Simon, it is also just Tuesday,
0:40
Speaker 1: like for you as a professional vetter, and we've got
0:43
Speaker 1: a lot to get to and so give me your
0:46
Speaker 1: answer and I will carry on. But like, does it
0:49
Speaker 1: feel different for you this Tuesday than it normally does? Chad,
0:59
Speaker 1: I'm so far man. This is like, uh, just a
1:02
Speaker 1: week of drinking and betting. Man, It's the best week,
1:04
Speaker 1: especially as a pro because it's like most professionals, this
1:08
Speaker 1: is our end of the year party. We make big bets.
1:11
Speaker 1: I'm literally going to Vegas two days after the super
1:14
Speaker 1: Bowl to go meet up with a bunch of other guys,
1:16
Speaker 1: and it's just it's just a fun week. In a
1:18
Speaker 1: normal year, I would be a little more turned up
1:22
Speaker 1: where the media and the just the hype surrounding it.
1:27
Speaker 1: And if it's Tom Brady pet Mahomes. Yeah, I'm right
1:30
Speaker 1: there with you. It would definitely be more pumped up.
1:32
Speaker 1: But in my own life, no Man, NFL Network, Rolling seven,
1:36
Speaker 1: I'm just never ending watching just football stuff this whole week.
1:41
Speaker 1: So I'm just just like everyone else. I'm just soaking up.
1:44
Speaker 1: This is it. This is the end of our season.
1:46
Speaker 1: So it's just it's one last push of just getting
1:49
Speaker 1: all the football and until it's over. It does feel
1:53
Speaker 1: a little bit like finals, right, and like you know
1:55
Speaker 1: you have that one final left. You've done all the work,
1:58
Speaker 1: you've done, all the studying. All you have to do
2:01
Speaker 1: is pick the right answers. And today, Simon my bff,
2:07
Speaker 1: we are going to pick the exact right answers. And
2:11
Speaker 1: believe it or not, I just thought of this little
2:13
Speaker 1: transition right here while we were talking. Today we are
2:16
Speaker 1: going to do an update on our game thoughts as
2:18
Speaker 1: it relates to the line in the total, which we
2:20
Speaker 1: did last week. Um, we are going to have a
2:25
Speaker 1: very big conversation about props, and not just player props,
2:28
Speaker 1: but primarily focusing on sort of a lot of the
2:32
Speaker 1: game props. You know, they'll be literally four D five
2:34
Speaker 1: hundred props that are available and through the years, the
2:37
Speaker 1: Super Bowl has become known for a lot of the
2:39
Speaker 1: game props, long before player props were really popular, like
2:42
Speaker 1: will there be an ot? Will there be a safety?
2:45
Speaker 1: These are the kind of props that professional betters have
2:48
Speaker 1: loved through the years. So we're going to get to that.
2:51
Speaker 1: But first, first, a word from our very gracious and
2:57
Speaker 1: incredible sponsor, all year long, Raft Kings. Okay, the Big
3:03
Speaker 1: Game is being played this weekend and our friends at
3:07
Speaker 1: Draft Kings are launching the fifty five million dollar Prediction Challenge.
3:14
Speaker 1: That is right, fifty five million dollar Prediction Challenge. This
3:19
Speaker 1: is a free to play fourth quarter prop pool with
3:25
Speaker 1: a top prize of one million dollars. Everybody is eligible
3:29
Speaker 1: to play. It's not like you have to be in
3:31
Speaker 1: a legal betting state to play this game. Anywhere. Anybody
3:35
Speaker 1: listening to this podcast from anywhere can enter to play
3:38
Speaker 1: this um. There are a lot of free instant prizes
3:42
Speaker 1: to They range anywhere from like three dollars in Draft
3:46
Speaker 1: King dollars to two dollars in cash. Every entry in
3:51
Speaker 1: the pool will also trigger a free random reward without
3:59
Speaker 1: the fifty million dollars in total prizes being handed out.
4:03
Speaker 1: Fifty five million fifty five is the number of the
4:06
Speaker 1: big game. Check out Draft Kings to participate in the
4:09
Speaker 1: free to play Prediction challenge for your shot at the
4:13
Speaker 1: top prize of one million dollars. Simon. We already beat
4:19
Speaker 1: like seven dred and seventy six people for a little
4:22
Speaker 1: d K competition too, took Draft Kings from more than
4:26
Speaker 1: four grand. How much can we win in this thing?
4:28
Speaker 1: We might win a million dollars. That's that's crazy. They
4:32
Speaker 1: I mean, I know a lot of sports books do promotions,
4:34
Speaker 1: but shout the Draft Kings there. Their promotions aren't crazy,
4:37
Speaker 1: are crazy? Like this is insane. The fact they're given
4:40
Speaker 1: away that much because it's it is blind luck what
4:42
Speaker 1: we're talking about here, So why wouldn't you sign up
4:44
Speaker 1: and just do it? It's it's a free lottery ticket.
4:46
Speaker 1: Twent a million dollars. So I love that they're doing
4:49
Speaker 1: this free lottery ticket, win a million dollars fifty five
4:52
Speaker 1: million in cash prizes Draft Kings check it out, Uh listen.
4:55
Speaker 1: A reminder also, we went winless two weeks ago, and
4:58
Speaker 1: because there were no games this past week, we rolled
5:01
Speaker 1: our phrase that pays cash prizing together, which means the
5:07
Speaker 1: winner of this past week of our phrase the pays
5:10
Speaker 1: the person who followed the Favorites Pod and then tagged
5:14
Speaker 1: us with the phrase. Simon says, we care one five dollars.
5:18
Speaker 1: We're gonna match that amount donated to their favorite charity.
5:23
Speaker 1: The Action Network is going to do that. We're gonna
5:24
Speaker 1: announce that winner at the end of the show. This week,
5:27
Speaker 1: we're doing something even more special. We're not giving away
5:31
Speaker 1: fifty five million dollars in prizes, but we are upping
5:34
Speaker 1: the prize Matt Mitchell doesn't even know this yet to
5:38
Speaker 1: five fifty dollars for super Bowl fifty five. The winner
5:42
Speaker 1: gets a hundred and ten dollars for every prop Simon
5:45
Speaker 1: and I get right from our five that we love
5:49
Speaker 1: uh at the super Bowl. To be eligible, go to
5:53
Speaker 1: at the Favorites Pod. Follow at the Favorites Pod, tag
5:57
Speaker 1: us using the phrase Simon says, bet the Big Game.
6:01
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell will sift through these submissions. You will win
6:05
Speaker 1: the money, um and then we'll announce it after the
6:07
Speaker 1: Super Bowl on the podcast. One more reminder, everything we discussed,
6:11
Speaker 1: every pick we make, It's all available in the free
6:13
Speaker 1: Action Network app. It's award winning, Go download it. We
6:17
Speaker 1: got a big balls bet. We got a hornet's nest,
6:19
Speaker 1: which is really unattractive. We got a foxhole. We also
6:22
Speaker 1: got your questions coming up at the end of the podcast.
6:25
Speaker 1: You sent in a bunch of questions. It's a lot
6:27
Speaker 1: of housekeeping, Simon, how do you want to start this thing?
6:30
Speaker 1: But you and I talked yesterday and we talked about
6:32
Speaker 1: sort of doing you know, the props that you love
6:36
Speaker 1: that aren't necessarily player props. Like I said, let's get
6:40
Speaker 1: it going. Just give me, give me one that you love,
6:42
Speaker 1: and let's talk about it. And this is all new
6:44
Speaker 1: to me, so I can't even I'm just reacting to it.
6:48
Speaker 1: And we can break down first what we talked about
6:51
Speaker 1: last week. I'll the overall game with the spread and
6:53
Speaker 1: the total. Um we've seen the sharps come in. The
6:57
Speaker 1: sharps have made a decision. The line open three and
7:00
Speaker 1: a half. It's been sitting at three all week. Opened
7:02
Speaker 1: at fifty seven and a half or fifty seven. The
7:05
Speaker 1: total it's down the fifty six, so no one's really shocked.
7:09
Speaker 1: The professionals like the dog and they like the under.
7:12
Speaker 1: And little did I know, um O, our little conversation
7:17
Speaker 1: here was gonna set Twitter to a fire. But man,
7:21
Speaker 1: people are upset. Chat. Imagine Simon, people are coming after
7:25
Speaker 1: you and they're coming after me. Chat. Chad just getting
7:29
Speaker 1: dragged into this. Brad, dude, I'm just a guy hosted
7:32
Speaker 1: the podcast. Yeah, I'm sorry. I said this spread was
7:36
Speaker 1: that it was fun. I had people breaking down the
7:38
Speaker 1: value of the number of minus three to sports books
7:41
Speaker 1: that there's a twelve and a half percent chance that
7:44
Speaker 1: it lands in between the number minus three and zero,
7:47
Speaker 1: and I was just like, Wow, this is just incredible
7:50
Speaker 1: information just being poured onto me where I didn't know
7:52
Speaker 1: how that held any kind of weight. When what was
7:55
Speaker 1: last year's Super Bowl? I think it was minus one
7:58
Speaker 1: or minus one and a half. I don't how the
8:00
Speaker 1: book built this trend into that number. The Eagle Super
8:03
Speaker 1: Bowl I think that was six and a half and
8:04
Speaker 1: closed the four and a half. Again, I don't know
8:07
Speaker 1: how this trend was built into the Troop Bowl. So
8:09
Speaker 1: people are coming back at the things that had nothing
8:11
Speaker 1: to do what I was talking about. Pretty much, what
8:13
Speaker 1: I was trying to tell people is hop on your
8:15
Speaker 1: phone right now, go to Google, look up super Bowl histories,
8:18
Speaker 1: and you can just see that more often than not
8:21
Speaker 1: if you take these adjusted lines, or you just take
8:24
Speaker 1: the spread instead of just taking the Chief's money line
8:27
Speaker 1: or just taking the plus three with the Buccaneers, You're
8:31
Speaker 1: you're losing value. And that's all I was just trying
8:33
Speaker 1: to tell people is that the books want you to
8:35
Speaker 1: do these really safe bets in the Super Bowl because
8:38
Speaker 1: long term, you're eating up your own big and you're
8:40
Speaker 1: eating away at your own profits. Even this this year,
8:43
Speaker 1: this this bet doesn't hit, if it does next year,
8:47
Speaker 1: you just factor in the math of the percentage of
8:49
Speaker 1: money you saved on not eating that juice. So that's
8:52
Speaker 1: all I was trying to say to people. I wasn't
8:54
Speaker 1: acting like I have all the answers here, but man,
8:58
Speaker 1: did people get upset. So that was weird um and
9:01
Speaker 1: also cool that like so many people like really value
9:05
Speaker 1: and care about what we say and got that upset
9:08
Speaker 1: that I don't know, it's just different styles, like I'm
9:12
Speaker 1: a high risk better like I don't bet one unit
9:14
Speaker 1: at a time and hope for a five return on
9:18
Speaker 1: a five percent return on year, like I take big
9:20
Speaker 1: swings and I do things very unconventional, And if there
9:24
Speaker 1: was one right answer, I think we'd all bet the
9:26
Speaker 1: exact same way that these guys all claim to know
9:28
Speaker 1: how to bet and we'd all be millionaires. So clearly
9:31
Speaker 1: whatever style they do, it doesn't work because the books
9:34
Speaker 1: keep winning. So I come I come at it from
9:37
Speaker 1: a different angle, and that upset them. So it was weird.
9:39
Speaker 1: But I'm here for it, man. I got nowhere to go,
9:42
Speaker 1: I got nothing to do. I'm stuck inside. There was
9:44
Speaker 1: a blizzard in north the Northeast, so it was a
9:46
Speaker 1: good weekend for me because I was just having fun
9:48
Speaker 1: with it. But back to the spread out, I still
9:51
Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, hold on, because there's something really interesting.
9:54
Speaker 1: A couple of things to unpack here. Number One for
9:56
Speaker 1: those who don't know and who don't live in sort
9:59
Speaker 1: of the Twitter universe, because it's easy to forget that
10:04
Speaker 1: the majority of the country is not on Twitter. The
10:07
Speaker 1: majority of the country does not spend an inordinate amount
10:10
Speaker 1: of time responding to Twitter. So what we're talking about
10:16
Speaker 1: here is Simon came on the show last week and said,
10:19
Speaker 1: you're better off if you like Tampa Bay in this game.
10:23
Speaker 1: You're better off betting on Tampa Bay in the money line,
10:27
Speaker 1: because what happens is the dogs they don't tend to cover.
10:31
Speaker 1: They just tend to win outright in this scenario. And
10:33
Speaker 1: by the way, the same can be said like for
10:36
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Like if you want to bet, bet on
10:39
Speaker 1: the money line, because the spread oftentimes doesn't come into play.
10:43
Speaker 1: I think it applies more to Tampa Bay than it
10:44
Speaker 1: does to Kansas City. Simon correct me if I'm wrong.
10:47
Speaker 1: I was saying that with Kansas City, you just take
10:49
Speaker 1: the minus three because what I was just trying to
10:51
Speaker 1: bring people to save, you're saving the juice, and that's
10:53
Speaker 1: all I was just simply stating is long term, you're
10:57
Speaker 1: saving money on the big and like that. I don't
11:00
Speaker 1: why I got them so upset. I think they're they
11:03
Speaker 1: just overlooked that simple part of the math, right, but
11:05
Speaker 1: a lot so the point is that like people came
11:08
Speaker 1: after you on Twitter, and that is what happens on Twitter,
11:12
Speaker 1: especially like in certain in certain segments of Twitter, there
11:16
Speaker 1: are a lot of people who just think like they
11:19
Speaker 1: are the gambling sort of arbiters of of good habits
11:26
Speaker 1: in the gambling space, and they like to tell everybody
11:30
Speaker 1: else what to do and how they should bet, and
11:32
Speaker 1: where the ev is and sort of all the value
11:35
Speaker 1: in that space. The truth is and the point of
11:37
Speaker 1: this podcast is like, there are a lot of different
11:39
Speaker 1: ways to make bets on games, and Simon is a
11:44
Speaker 1: high risk gambler, like he will play with his bank
11:47
Speaker 1: roll differently. And the way you gamble oftentimes is you
11:52
Speaker 1: try to find what works for you and what makes
11:55
Speaker 1: you comfortable, and then you play at the money amounts
11:58
Speaker 1: that make you comfortable as well. Not supposed to be
12:01
Speaker 1: following everything, Simon says. Simon says at his level of money,
12:06
Speaker 1: because he's been doing this for a long time and
12:08
Speaker 1: he gambles at high risk. He's giving you his perception
12:11
Speaker 1: based on sort of habits and history and practice. Um.
12:16
Speaker 1: And yet if you say something that a lot of
12:18
Speaker 1: people disagree with on Twitter, they're going to come after you.
12:21
Speaker 1: And that's what happened this weekend. And then they came
12:23
Speaker 1: after me. Yeah, that was a nice guy sitting in
12:27
Speaker 1: my room, you know, recording a podcast. But that's what
12:30
Speaker 1: I joke all the time with a buddy that in life.
12:33
Speaker 1: I mean, it's messed up to say, but some of
12:34
Speaker 1: the greatest things in human history it comes from conflict.
12:37
Speaker 1: There's conflict in life and great things arise from it.
12:39
Speaker 1: So if I get conflict with these guys and people
12:42
Speaker 1: either learned from it takes something from it, see both
12:46
Speaker 1: sides of the argument. That's all I can ask for, because,
12:48
Speaker 1: like you just said, I don't have all the answers.
12:50
Speaker 1: I have a very unique style that works for me
12:53
Speaker 1: and it works for a lot of other people. If
12:55
Speaker 1: that obviously works for a lot of people, it works.
12:57
Speaker 1: And that's just all I'm trying to help people learn
12:58
Speaker 1: with is that you don't just take the number, you
13:01
Speaker 1: take the moneyline. These are little things I like to
13:03
Speaker 1: pass along. So, yeah, it was definitely a fun weekend.
13:06
Speaker 1: But we don't have to worry about that too much.
13:08
Speaker 1: We can move on to the game at hand, my friend,
13:11
Speaker 1: all right, so let's look as it stands. The game
13:14
Speaker 1: is at you know, minus Kansas City minus three, the
13:18
Speaker 1: totals at fifty six and a half. I think you said, um,
13:22
Speaker 1: the wise guys have come in. Has anything in your logic,
13:26
Speaker 1: reasoning deduction changed in the past week? What will your
13:31
Speaker 1: plan be? Your your your plan? On just sort of
13:34
Speaker 1: the side and the total still still on, the bucks
13:38
Speaker 1: still on the over still tease the bucks still tease
13:40
Speaker 1: it with the over. Uh, I understand where they're coming
13:43
Speaker 1: back with the underplay because in history totals this time
13:46
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, it leans to the younger. I think
13:50
Speaker 1: it's the look because I did look right for the show,
13:52
Speaker 1: but it might have been eight and three or something
13:55
Speaker 1: like that, where if it's above fifty it goes under.
13:58
Speaker 1: And I just think with these two offenses we will
14:03
Speaker 1: talk about when we get into the props here and
14:04
Speaker 1: like I like, uh, slow start, but we just know
14:08
Speaker 1: it anytime these offenses can score and they go deep
14:11
Speaker 1: and their offense is very spread out. So I still
14:14
Speaker 1: feel going against my my brother in the sharps here.
14:17
Speaker 1: Even though I love unders, I have to take this
14:20
Speaker 1: over here. I just love these offenses so still in
14:22
Speaker 1: the over as well. I am stunned, like you are,
14:25
Speaker 1: so going against every single trend, every single trend, and
14:30
Speaker 1: I do want to get into it. Here's a stat
14:33
Speaker 1: uh that somebody sent in. Hold on, let me see
14:35
Speaker 1: if I can find it here. Um. Shoot, it's gonna
14:39
Speaker 1: take me a second as I scroll through Twitter, but
14:42
Speaker 1: basically list or here we go. Uh. This is from
14:47
Speaker 1: uh degeneracy and me Tom Brady, tom Brady's first score
14:52
Speaker 1: in the last nine Super Bowls. So I haven't checked this,
14:55
Speaker 1: so I'm I'm, you know, relying on a guy who
14:58
Speaker 1: goes back to generacy and UH Rams led three nothing.
15:03
Speaker 1: Panthers UH tied zero zero. UM Giants led three nothing,
15:09
Speaker 1: Giants led three nothing, Eagles lead what was at nine three?
15:14
Speaker 1: UM Kansas City starts slow. The over under for the
15:20
Speaker 1: first quarter is ten. Is the under an absolute lock?
15:25
Speaker 1: You said you want to talk about the start slow,
15:27
Speaker 1: then go over. Let's talk about it. Uh, No such
15:32
Speaker 1: thing as a lock. But yeah, it's it's the play.
15:36
Speaker 1: I know that you can throw those numbers out a
15:38
Speaker 1: little bit because you're you're saying yourself, it's those are
15:40
Speaker 1: new England numbers. YadA, YadA, YadA. But I talked about
15:44
Speaker 1: it last week that this has been true of Brady
15:47
Speaker 1: his entire career. In the Super Bowl. He just always
15:49
Speaker 1: starts slow. And that's what I'm trying to get home
15:53
Speaker 1: about the unique uniqueness of this game is this is
15:57
Speaker 1: the biggest game in America. We remember some of these players,
16:01
Speaker 1: and these players for the rest of our lives. You
16:03
Speaker 1: remember a guy named David Tyree who did nothing with
16:06
Speaker 1: his entire career, but he had one of the most
16:07
Speaker 1: insane catches ever. Can you tell me the most important
16:10
Speaker 1: player from the Tampa Bay Light means Stanley Cup last
16:14
Speaker 1: last couple of months. Like, I can't tell you a
16:17
Speaker 1: huge life changing play from the Stanley Cup. And I'm
16:19
Speaker 1: an average fan of hockey, so it's one of those.
16:22
Speaker 1: I don't think people understand the pressure and the high
16:26
Speaker 1: variants of the super Bowl, that it is so unique.
16:28
Speaker 1: And I know people are upset about the sample size
16:32
Speaker 1: of the super Bowl. It fifty four years and fifty
16:36
Speaker 1: four games is too small of a sample. I don't
16:38
Speaker 1: know that that feels like a decent size sample for
16:41
Speaker 1: such a unique game. So if that's all I had
16:43
Speaker 1: to golf of, that's what I based a lot of
16:45
Speaker 1: my trends off of. So with this one, I'm with you.
16:50
Speaker 1: I man, just just looking at this game on paper,
16:55
Speaker 1: it's it well like what we get it right now
16:59
Speaker 1: the props, but I just love the first half to
17:02
Speaker 1: be low scoring. I just think, like exactly everything that
17:05
Speaker 1: guy just broke down. It just feels that that that's
17:08
Speaker 1: a smart play over time with your money is to
17:11
Speaker 1: take that under ten points in the first quarter. Flukes
17:13
Speaker 1: might happen, we might get a busted tackle, Kirk returned.
17:16
Speaker 1: Weird things, But if you're just playing the numbers and
17:18
Speaker 1: the data exactly the under ten points in the first quarter,
17:21
Speaker 1: that that's a good play. Um, all right, under ten
17:25
Speaker 1: points in the first quarter. As I've mentioned before, Stucky
17:29
Speaker 1: on the Action Network NFL podcast has talked about this
17:32
Speaker 1: trend and if you if the sample size of the
17:34
Speaker 1: Super Bowls and big enough expanded to Super Bowls and
17:38
Speaker 1: conference championship games and it's still the right trend, there's
17:41
Speaker 1: still an inordinate number of games that uh, that go
17:45
Speaker 1: under ten in the first quarter. In fact, I think
17:48
Speaker 1: it was like six seven eight games in that entire
17:52
Speaker 1: sample set had gone over to over ten in the
17:56
Speaker 1: first quarter. So really good data set there to pull from.
18:01
Speaker 1: That's one first quarter under. But was that on your
18:04
Speaker 1: list of ones that we want to talk about? It
18:07
Speaker 1: can be I wrote down a ton. I have so
18:09
Speaker 1: many here, but I highlighted my favorite ones for this show.
18:12
Speaker 1: So give me your favorite ones. Let's do. Let's do
18:15
Speaker 1: your five favorite ones, okay, and I will decide if
18:18
Speaker 1: I agree with you. So my number one my favorite play.
18:24
Speaker 1: And I'm talking to other sharp groups and we all
18:27
Speaker 1: talk last week and before the props come out, just
18:30
Speaker 1: trying to gauge where these other guys are gonna put
18:32
Speaker 1: their money so that I can get the best of
18:34
Speaker 1: the number. If I don't love it, I want to
18:36
Speaker 1: at least get the best number for that because I
18:38
Speaker 1: know they're gonna come in heavy on that side. So
18:41
Speaker 1: this group who I love, and man, they're good. They
18:45
Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna kind of group that they might
18:47
Speaker 1: only do ten props, like big money for this whole thing.
18:50
Speaker 1: Well suckers like me are doing five props because I
18:53
Speaker 1: just love the action. So their favorite one, which I'm
18:56
Speaker 1: right there with them, is total field goals over one
18:58
Speaker 1: and a half in the first half. It's minus juice.
19:03
Speaker 1: I love the play. I love that they they're they're
19:05
Speaker 1: pretty much bank on these guys having drives and then
19:07
Speaker 1: just getting tight in the red zone in the first half.
19:10
Speaker 1: So for my first play, my favorite one, I really
19:14
Speaker 1: do like that that played by them. But the over
19:16
Speaker 1: one and a half first half field goals. Now, will
19:19
Speaker 1: you say getting type by the way, when when you
19:21
Speaker 1: tell me you're getting together with a bunch of sharps
19:23
Speaker 1: and you're playing these things and you want to get
19:25
Speaker 1: it before the line moves, you know what I think
19:26
Speaker 1: about game stop a MC silver like you guys are you.
19:32
Speaker 1: You guys are the are the hedge funds, And I
19:34
Speaker 1: gotta get the people. I gotta get the people on
19:37
Speaker 1: Reddit to come in and start putting the short squeeze
19:41
Speaker 1: on you and your hedge fund props. The way you
19:44
Speaker 1: guys are coming at these things, that's what I'm I'm
19:47
Speaker 1: one of the AMC suckers. I got it at like
19:49
Speaker 1: four dollars and I should have sold it at twenty,
19:51
Speaker 1: but I was just like, if fixes get to a twenty,
19:55
Speaker 1: my whole life will be spent in Hawaii. I don't
19:57
Speaker 1: need to uh keep betting anymore. But unfore it's only
20:01
Speaker 1: we all know what happened in the hedge funds stepped
20:04
Speaker 1: in so right now and I think they're like, it's
20:07
Speaker 1: like seven dollars now, AMC. So I'm still at a
20:09
Speaker 1: profit from the four dollar four dollar by but yeah,
20:12
Speaker 1: that was ugly. But so you guys are betting on
20:15
Speaker 1: teams getting tight is there? Now? This just feels like
20:19
Speaker 1: you're sort of you're going with what some other guys
20:23
Speaker 1: that you love are telling you. That's all the numbers
20:25
Speaker 1: that back it. Where it's like that, it's it's just
20:28
Speaker 1: the highest percentage of field goals happened in the first half.
20:32
Speaker 1: Like in the history of the Super Bowl, it's really
20:34
Speaker 1: lopsided leaning towards the first half. So you can go
20:39
Speaker 1: through it um especially when you look at these two
20:42
Speaker 1: offenses on paper, they're just a high powered offenses where
20:46
Speaker 1: they can pick up four yards at any time. But
20:49
Speaker 1: we've seen it this year, especially with the Chiefs. They're
20:51
Speaker 1: one of the lowest scoring teams in the red zone
20:53
Speaker 1: for touchdowns, so it seems like they get touchdowns on
20:57
Speaker 1: big plays that go for a long play, or they
21:00
Speaker 1: get down there and they get stuff in the kick
21:01
Speaker 1: field goals. So again, I just there are no there
21:04
Speaker 1: is numbers that back this up. But you can trust
21:06
Speaker 1: when I tell you that this this is going to
21:08
Speaker 1: be a smart play this week. Our foxhole, the really
21:10
Speaker 1: unpopular bet. Let's climbe down into the foxhole. It's it's
21:19
Speaker 1: gotta be over one and a half field goals in
21:22
Speaker 1: the first half because you think it's going popular. All right,
21:26
Speaker 1: I love it because it's unpopular. Okay, we got a
21:29
Speaker 1: bunch more, don't you worry. I'm making a lot of
21:31
Speaker 1: notes here. The next one will be either team two
21:34
Speaker 1: point conversion, yes plus two thirty uh and again. These
21:39
Speaker 1: all these lines are from our friends at Draft Kings
21:41
Speaker 1: UM just a great value on a number that we
21:45
Speaker 1: both know. These teams, their head coaches love to go
21:49
Speaker 1: for two. Bruce loves to go for two. Andy Reid
21:52
Speaker 1: loves go for two. And with two risky coaches in
21:56
Speaker 1: a game that is all about taking high risk plays
21:58
Speaker 1: to try to win a winner's take all game, I
22:01
Speaker 1: just love the fact that if any team gets down
22:04
Speaker 1: by a weird number, we're pretty much guaranteed to get
22:07
Speaker 1: a two point play attempt at any point in this game.
22:10
Speaker 1: So if you're if you're if you're willing to bet
22:14
Speaker 1: these weird props I'm giving out today. This is one
22:16
Speaker 1: of these higher ones up there. I love either team
22:18
Speaker 1: to score two points. I love this one. I feel
22:22
Speaker 1: like this one is definitely going to make our list.
22:24
Speaker 1: I like it because of the because of the number,
22:28
Speaker 1: Like I feel more comfortable betting on something that I
22:30
Speaker 1: feel great about it plus two thirty than something that
22:34
Speaker 1: needs to have so many things to happen at min.
22:41
Speaker 1: You know what I mean. I'm not wrong, You're not wrong.
22:44
Speaker 1: I mean, well, when we go through these, I have
22:46
Speaker 1: a lot like of just big plus value because that's
22:49
Speaker 1: what I try to do with these props, and I'm
22:51
Speaker 1: just I'm hoping for that fluke year where if a
22:53
Speaker 1: lot of these plus numbers come through, you're good now
22:56
Speaker 1: for the next year or two on these Super Bowl props.
22:59
Speaker 1: And that's how you can just keep adding up the
23:00
Speaker 1: money from these props. The hornets Nest, this is an
23:04
Speaker 1: unattractive bet that we don't think people will want to
23:07
Speaker 1: join us on. I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest,
23:10
Speaker 1: all right, I'll be my companion on two point conversion
23:24
Speaker 1: plus two thirty definitely hornets Nest. The fact that this
23:28
Speaker 1: is juiced up, so hi, So I'm cool with that
23:30
Speaker 1: one being it? All right, what's your next one? So
23:34
Speaker 1: sadly for Chad, he won't love it because it's minus
23:36
Speaker 1: one fourteen. But longest TD plus ut five point five
23:41
Speaker 1: over yards minus one fourteen. I just think again, we
23:45
Speaker 1: talked about these two offenses. They're they're very aggressive against
23:48
Speaker 1: defenses that are pretty aggressive. I know the Chiefs do
23:52
Speaker 1: like the runner covered two zone where they do drop
23:55
Speaker 1: back to safeties a lot, but eventually Brady Brady's gonna
23:59
Speaker 1: get them. There's no one better in the history of
24:01
Speaker 1: the NFL reading defenses. So we'll talk about him a
24:04
Speaker 1: little bit later on. But Scotty Miller, he's the kind
24:07
Speaker 1: of guy we saw last week where he's just one big, one,
24:09
Speaker 1: big play kind of guy, and I could see him
24:12
Speaker 1: getting behind this Chief's defense. The same goes with the
24:15
Speaker 1: Buccaneers against Tyreek Hill. We saw Tyreek Hill have a
24:18
Speaker 1: historical day the last time these teams played, and with
24:21
Speaker 1: Sammy Watkins back, he can do the same kind of thing.
24:24
Speaker 1: We can open things up for him and the other receivers.
24:26
Speaker 1: So I do really like this play long longs TV
24:30
Speaker 1: over and a half. This one is really interesting, and
24:35
Speaker 1: I do think to me there is a little bit
24:37
Speaker 1: of a correlation of why I like this one and
24:39
Speaker 1: don't like the field goal one, which is and we
24:44
Speaker 1: saw this with the Packers. Like the Bucks go long,
24:47
Speaker 1: and they go long early, and they do not wait
24:51
Speaker 1: for the warm up, They do not try to figure
24:53
Speaker 1: out what the defense is doing. They play their offensive game,
24:56
Speaker 1: and not just in the NFC Championship game, but in
25:01
Speaker 1: the last say six weeks of the regular season and
25:05
Speaker 1: into the playoffs. Except for that game against Washington where
25:07
Speaker 1: they struggled, this team just lets it fly and it's
25:13
Speaker 1: that's because that's what they have. Like they're not a
25:16
Speaker 1: short route, you know, shallow, low cross team. They are
25:20
Speaker 1: a run, a post, run deep, throw the ball up
25:26
Speaker 1: and let's see what happens. I like this, and I
25:29
Speaker 1: think that could happen quickly in the game, which might
25:33
Speaker 1: make you more aggressive over the course of the first half.
25:36
Speaker 1: So I don't like the field goal one for that,
25:39
Speaker 1: but I do love longest touched in over forty five
25:43
Speaker 1: and a half also minus one four team, Like that's
25:45
Speaker 1: decent juice. Like I don't mind paying that. And if
25:48
Speaker 1: you guys heard me typing, that was me betting another
25:50
Speaker 1: thousand on this overfield goal one and a half. Thank
25:52
Speaker 1: you chat. Oh my god, I just love it. Man,
25:58
Speaker 1: you're the best. Do you agree with my lode and
26:00
Speaker 1: a half? Yeah? Like this is my Like I'm giving
26:03
Speaker 1: my best underin now. So like, yeah, I love this play.
26:05
Speaker 1: You're you're not gonna hear an argument against that from me?
26:07
Speaker 1: Well listen, now, I'm gonna have to troll you on
26:10
Speaker 1: Twitter when under when when there's not over one and
26:14
Speaker 1: a half field goals, I can't There's there's nothing gonna
26:16
Speaker 1: be zero field goals in the first half, and this
26:18
Speaker 1: game is gonna end on three. It's gonna be I hope,
26:21
Speaker 1: I hope you get trolled all fucking day, Simon Hunter.
26:27
Speaker 1: Uh yeah for the next one. It feels like a
26:30
Speaker 1: trap because it honestly feels way too easy. I have
26:33
Speaker 1: this graded out of five and a half and it's
26:36
Speaker 1: total sacks over four and a half plus one ten.
26:39
Speaker 1: Do not get this line at all. I think they're
26:42
Speaker 1: basing this on Brady being so smart and getting the
26:45
Speaker 1: ball out of his hands so quick and not taking sacks.
26:48
Speaker 1: And the same goes from my homes that he's so
26:50
Speaker 1: smart he doesn't take hits. But when you break down
26:53
Speaker 1: the numbers, no, QB holds the ball longer than my homes.
26:57
Speaker 1: He's always looking to make big plays, and we already
27:01
Speaker 1: know his left tackle and right tackle are out, so
27:04
Speaker 1: right there, I had that graded out at three sacks
27:06
Speaker 1: against him, and I have two and a half against Brady.
27:09
Speaker 1: So I just think you're getting grade value here on
27:13
Speaker 1: this number, and at plus one ten, I love that
27:16
Speaker 1: You're you're getting plus money on it. So you have
27:19
Speaker 1: a graded out at six sacks. You said you at
27:22
Speaker 1: six sax, right, you have a three and a half
27:23
Speaker 1: and two and a half. I'm sorry, I misspoke. So
27:26
Speaker 1: I have three and a half and then one h one. No,
27:30
Speaker 1: have three and a half and two okay, five and
27:33
Speaker 1: a half, five and a half yeah, yep, yes, I
27:39
Speaker 1: have two point one for the Chiefs and I have
27:41
Speaker 1: three point seven for so exactly it's leaned a little
27:45
Speaker 1: over five and a half. So definitely, I love the
27:47
Speaker 1: value on this line. You're getting a full sack of
27:49
Speaker 1: value on this and you're getting plus money on it
27:53
Speaker 1: at plus one time. So when you grade this out,
27:56
Speaker 1: like your your models are going that d that you
28:00
Speaker 1: are grading out the total number of sacks in the
28:02
Speaker 1: game every game, even in the regular season, Like that's
28:08
Speaker 1: this is how you find edges in the in the games.
28:11
Speaker 1: It's where you're you're trying to find what's the most
28:14
Speaker 1: likely outcome, Like that's all. This is the medium. Like
28:16
Speaker 1: I I don't pretend to predict the future, but I'm
28:19
Speaker 1: literally putting this state in and it's given me the
28:21
Speaker 1: most likely outcome if they played this game over a
28:23
Speaker 1: thousand times. So exactly, if they play this game a
28:27
Speaker 1: thousand times, this number is gonna come come through well
28:30
Speaker 1: over fifty percent of the time. That's that's just why
28:32
Speaker 1: I love this number. So five and a half and
28:38
Speaker 1: is what you have a grade at at one more
28:40
Speaker 1: question about this, Are you, like um, running a program
28:45
Speaker 1: that tells you I got this at three and a half,
28:48
Speaker 1: I got this at two and a half, Like for
28:49
Speaker 1: the sacks, like how did how does that work? Are
28:51
Speaker 1: you running a game simulation, running a game situation and
28:54
Speaker 1: just plug it in all the numbers from the season,
28:57
Speaker 1: Like you basically want to go through and you just
29:00
Speaker 1: want to highlight when most important numbers to you, So
29:03
Speaker 1: you know they do the combine, the three cone drill,
29:05
Speaker 1: all these different things. These things are very important a
29:08
Speaker 1: guy's first step and get off speed on a D
29:10
Speaker 1: line even O line. These are very important numbers that
29:13
Speaker 1: you have to look into when you're building a model.
29:15
Speaker 1: So I pretty much use three sites mainly, and I
29:20
Speaker 1: get their numbers and I get a meeting from that
29:22
Speaker 1: and that's what I plug in my data from. So
29:26
Speaker 1: it is one of those where it is a give
29:28
Speaker 1: and take, like there's gonna be I mean, we can
29:31
Speaker 1: talk about Pro Football Focus. That site has numbers on
29:35
Speaker 1: every little single thing, and it can be overwhelming. Well,
29:38
Speaker 1: you want to pull numbers from where things that you
29:40
Speaker 1: think are most important to the game, because again, no
29:42
Speaker 1: one has all the answers. We're all trying to figure
29:45
Speaker 1: out the best thing and the best numbers to use
29:48
Speaker 1: to win money. So when I'm looking at those things
29:51
Speaker 1: I do, I'm I'm honestly obsessed with the line because
29:54
Speaker 1: I just think it's such a porting and key thing
29:57
Speaker 1: to a game that just gets overlooked time and time
29:59
Speaker 1: again in a game like this where I am seeing
30:02
Speaker 1: a huge advantage on a D line versus offensive line,
30:05
Speaker 1: like we don't even talk about the middle of the
30:07
Speaker 1: Buccaneers with Sue and Vita. So I just love, love,
30:12
Speaker 1: love the Buccaneers front line. So let's go big balls
30:17
Speaker 1: better the week over four and a half sacks plus
30:21
Speaker 1: one in Super Bowl. Love it. I can get behind that.
30:26
Speaker 1: And if if you love that one with me, Shack
30:29
Speaker 1: right now, he's over his point five sacks plus one
30:32
Speaker 1: twenty love it. Learnarly, this guy all he needs is
30:35
Speaker 1: to get a sack with another guy and you're at
30:37
Speaker 1: a push for the rest of the game. So I
30:39
Speaker 1: just think there's there's gonna be opportunity here for Shack
30:41
Speaker 1: to get a sack on my home, especially. He loves
30:44
Speaker 1: holding on the ball. He's gonna be trying to make
30:46
Speaker 1: big plays. He's gonna get one on them. It's just
30:48
Speaker 1: only a matter of time. So I think you're getting
30:50
Speaker 1: great value right now and check over point five sacks. God,
30:53
Speaker 1: that is so interesting. These are things, honestly like, I
30:56
Speaker 1: never looked at it this way. All right, give me
30:58
Speaker 1: a yeah. I told you I get super weird props
31:02
Speaker 1: because I just bet so many of them and you
31:03
Speaker 1: just look for the smallest amount of value and you
31:06
Speaker 1: just try to capitalize on it. But for the next one,
31:08
Speaker 1: I just talked about the big run stuffers up front
31:10
Speaker 1: for the Buccaneers. Claude Edwards Hilaire is coming back for
31:14
Speaker 1: his first game and well over a month right now,
31:17
Speaker 1: they have his rushing and receiving prop over under forty
31:20
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I don't think Andy Reid is
31:23
Speaker 1: gonna trust the rookie in the biggest game of the
31:25
Speaker 1: year to get a ton of touches. I think that
31:28
Speaker 1: this has gonna be one of those games where they're
31:30
Speaker 1: gonna try to run it. It's not gonna work out,
31:32
Speaker 1: and eventually they're gonna bring in a running back to
31:35
Speaker 1: get either block better than him or can catch better.
31:38
Speaker 1: And we've seen it with Draw Williams. He's he's really good.
31:42
Speaker 1: And we saw last year Damian Williams that that guy
31:44
Speaker 1: was won the m v P of the Super Bowl.
31:46
Speaker 1: So I do know that the Chiefs do want to
31:49
Speaker 1: establish the run. That's a big thing for them. But
31:51
Speaker 1: against this run defense, I just can't see that happen.
31:54
Speaker 1: So I really like this this underprop for Claire's Hilaire
31:57
Speaker 1: rushing receiving under forty and a half plus one oh five.
32:01
Speaker 1: I hate this with all my being. You know why
32:03
Speaker 1: because before the season began, before he was hurt, there
32:07
Speaker 1: was all this talk about Clyde Edwards Hilaire and how
32:09
Speaker 1: talented he was gonna be. And I remember Matthew Friedman
32:11
Speaker 1: from the Action Network we do the show, convinced me
32:13
Speaker 1: we're gonna do what convinced me for the Super Bowl
32:16
Speaker 1: this upcoming Sunday, and I'd actually network HQ followed the
32:20
Speaker 1: channel followed the handle to find out what Time talked
32:23
Speaker 1: about Clyde Edwards Hilaire possibly being the best receiving back
32:26
Speaker 1: in the league before the season even started. And then
32:30
Speaker 1: he comes out in the first game and he is everywhere,
32:33
Speaker 1: and he's doing great, and I feel like this is
32:36
Speaker 1: a prime time Andy Reid weapon who hasn't been utilized
32:41
Speaker 1: very much because he's been injured, and this is a
32:44
Speaker 1: chance to get him back into the flow of the
32:46
Speaker 1: game to take some of that pressure off of Patrick Mahomes.
32:50
Speaker 1: That's I mean, that's that's fair. I was in on
32:53
Speaker 1: on him to coming into the year because I just
32:55
Speaker 1: thought you have the best receiving back in college coming
32:58
Speaker 1: to an offense that is a high powered throwing offense.
33:02
Speaker 1: But Levian bell move kind of throw a wrink into
33:05
Speaker 1: that whole thing. But I'm fine with staying away from
33:07
Speaker 1: that one. I got any other ones, my friend? Uh?
33:10
Speaker 1: Did you also? While I was talking, bet another thousand
33:14
Speaker 1: dollars on the under Clyde Edwards a layer rushing and
33:17
Speaker 1: receiving four d and a half yards because you're so
33:19
Speaker 1: convinced I'm cursed? Is that what you did? No, But
33:22
Speaker 1: you're just so so confident in your hate of that
33:24
Speaker 1: total over field goals that I just know it's a lock. Now.
33:27
Speaker 1: It's just one of those There's no such thing as
33:29
Speaker 1: a lock, you generous, There's no such thing as a lock.
33:34
Speaker 1: That's true. Uh, So for the next one. We talked
33:38
Speaker 1: last show about it. This is another one of my
33:40
Speaker 1: favorite props to do. High high scoring half second minus
33:44
Speaker 1: one one to all right now and DraftKings. So you
33:47
Speaker 1: basically just go to Draft Kings, you go to the
33:49
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, you scroll over, you click on halves, you
33:52
Speaker 1: scroll down, and they'll have it right there. What says
33:55
Speaker 1: highest scoring half second or first. So if I love
33:59
Speaker 1: the under in the f quarter of ten, if I
34:01
Speaker 1: like the under of the first half, I have to
34:04
Speaker 1: love the highest score and half being the second. So
34:07
Speaker 1: this is a play I play every year and it's
34:09
Speaker 1: been good to me throughout the years. So I'm gonna
34:11
Speaker 1: keep on playing at high scoring half second minus one twelve.
34:15
Speaker 1: Completely agree with this, Love this, even if I do
34:19
Speaker 1: think there might be sort of some some weirdness in
34:22
Speaker 1: the first half. Like these things, they go crazy in
34:26
Speaker 1: the second half these games. In the last ten minutes.
34:29
Speaker 1: You could see thirty five points in the last ten minutes.
34:31
Speaker 1: Whatever happened in the first minutes of this game will
34:35
Speaker 1: not be the same as what happens in the end.
34:37
Speaker 1: It happens every single year. It's amazing. It's what makes
34:39
Speaker 1: you both great. No, especially with these two quarterbacks, so
34:42
Speaker 1: they're both just so stubborn and they do not care
34:46
Speaker 1: they can be either of them can be down by
34:47
Speaker 1: twenty five at half in this game, the second half,
34:51
Speaker 1: they are not gonna stop swinging. So love it. Just
34:54
Speaker 1: love that both both these quarterbacks, their styles. It just
34:57
Speaker 1: lines up perfect with this this prop this year. All right,
35:00
Speaker 1: let's do two more because right now you've given me um,
35:03
Speaker 1: You've given me four that I absolutely love out of
35:08
Speaker 1: the I think six that we've talked about. So let's
35:13
Speaker 1: see if we can get to five out of the
35:14
Speaker 1: next couple of months. Should we? Should we keep going
35:17
Speaker 1: some big plus numbers? Yeah, plus numbers are better. I
35:23
Speaker 1: know you're gonna hate this one, but I love it
35:24
Speaker 1: because it is so funky and it's just fun to bet. Uh.
35:28
Speaker 1: And it's another one where you only have to hit
35:30
Speaker 1: it once every twenty years and you're gonna get your
35:32
Speaker 1: return on investment. And that's any own alignement to score
35:34
Speaker 1: a touchdown plus two thousands. I love it. It's just
35:39
Speaker 1: I I just see both these offenses doing something weird
35:41
Speaker 1: down the end zone where Andy Reid he loves illusions,
35:45
Speaker 1: guys moving in weird places and all of a sudden
35:47
Speaker 1: offensive linem just pops wide open in the end zone
35:49
Speaker 1: and Sam gomees with Tom Brady we saw all those
35:52
Speaker 1: years and was that Bruski I think it was, or
35:55
Speaker 1: maybe it was Brable. They would always bring a defensive
35:57
Speaker 1: guy to do these weird packages and square touchdowns. It
35:59
Speaker 1: was Yeah, So I could see them doing something similar
36:02
Speaker 1: this year or their alignment. They have two different guys
36:04
Speaker 1: that that have scored and have had catches this year
36:08
Speaker 1: on their old line in the Buccaneers. So I like
36:10
Speaker 1: this one. It's just a fun, weird proper you can
36:12
Speaker 1: bet a hundred and one to cat and uh, it's
36:15
Speaker 1: any alignment to score a touchdown. I love this one.
36:19
Speaker 1: Uh it's good for like this is a good it's
36:23
Speaker 1: stupid fun. It's stupid like every time they get close
36:26
Speaker 1: to the goal line, you're gonna hope for this offense
36:29
Speaker 1: alignment if you don't over invest, you know, you just
36:32
Speaker 1: have a little bit of fun because the pard is
36:34
Speaker 1: so high and just enjoy so that that's what I
36:38
Speaker 1: love for fun. And then the next one that's just fun.
36:41
Speaker 1: And it's been paying out good honestly for me, over
36:43
Speaker 1: a couple of years of doing this and the super
36:45
Speaker 1: Bowl is a field goal or extra point to hit
36:48
Speaker 1: either across bar or the side, so all it has
36:51
Speaker 1: to do is just touch it. If it hits it
36:53
Speaker 1: and goes in. Anything it hits and goes out, you
36:56
Speaker 1: win at plus four hundred right now. So that's one
36:59
Speaker 1: of these weird bets I like to make, just because again,
37:02
Speaker 1: you only have to hit it once every four years
37:04
Speaker 1: and you're you're getting your money back. So it's a
37:05
Speaker 1: fun bet and it's just likely to happen because we've
37:08
Speaker 1: just seen it time and time again, the pressure in
37:11
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl and the fact that this game is outdoors.
37:14
Speaker 1: I like it even more because we know the wind
37:16
Speaker 1: who knows it can blow it right into the post war.
37:18
Speaker 1: So it's a fun prop, and it's one of those
37:21
Speaker 1: that you have to watch every time a kicker is
37:23
Speaker 1: lining up because you're just hoping it hits a crossbar.
37:25
Speaker 1: So I like this one. But to me, it's too
37:28
Speaker 1: much like and for our fans, uh, it's too much
37:31
Speaker 1: like the old Lineman prop. Like it's a little flukey, right,
37:36
Speaker 1: and it's so like, I need one more that I
37:41
Speaker 1: love that isn't flukey that makes me feel like I'm
37:45
Speaker 1: beating the market, and I'm smarter than everybody else, and
37:48
Speaker 1: I'm on the right side. And when I'm watching the game,
37:51
Speaker 1: I can say to one of my kids, Hey, Daddy,
37:54
Speaker 1: bet your college fund on this because he got an idea. Well,
37:58
Speaker 1: I can guarantee you this problem gonna keep coming down
38:00
Speaker 1: because it opened I think at plus uh and I
38:04
Speaker 1: got a plus four fifty. So it has been it
38:07
Speaker 1: has been dropping that one. But for another one that
38:10
Speaker 1: I think it's just a smart, smart one where we
38:12
Speaker 1: have two quarterbacks are willing to take high risk plays
38:15
Speaker 1: for high high rewards. It's total receptions over one and
38:18
Speaker 1: a half at plus one thirty four. I just think
38:21
Speaker 1: we saw Brady last week. He doesn't care if he's
38:23
Speaker 1: throwing punt picks. If he's taking a deep shot and
38:26
Speaker 1: the guy that happens either pick it off for Mike
38:28
Speaker 1: Evans can catch it, He's fine with that because it's
38:30
Speaker 1: a fifty yard bond down the field. So with both
38:33
Speaker 1: these offenses, especially with my homes having these two offensive
38:36
Speaker 1: linement out, he's gonna be trying to make big plays
38:39
Speaker 1: at all times to counteract that that big weakness right
38:42
Speaker 1: now on that team. So I see both these quarterbacks
38:44
Speaker 1: taking a lot of risk in this game, and I
38:46
Speaker 1: love that this one is that plus money, so over
38:49
Speaker 1: one and a half interceptions plus one thirty four. What
38:53
Speaker 1: do you think this correlates to most in this game?
38:57
Speaker 1: Because I like it's interesting here is we do have
39:01
Speaker 1: offenses that are incredibly potent, right, and you obviously are
39:05
Speaker 1: on the over. Um turnovers tend to lead two points
39:11
Speaker 1: being depressed because teams don't get to finish drives, they
39:15
Speaker 1: don't get as many sort of possessions that put them
39:17
Speaker 1: in a position to score, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Are you
39:22
Speaker 1: if you if you take a bet like this, are
39:24
Speaker 1: you correlating it to playing the under or the over? Uh?
39:32
Speaker 1: I would have to look into that. I don't know
39:34
Speaker 1: if the math really works out that way where I
39:36
Speaker 1: feel like if there's more turnovers gonna be there's gonna
39:38
Speaker 1: be more points because they're more likely to have a
39:40
Speaker 1: shorter field. So it could be right and it could
39:43
Speaker 1: be Uh. If you're if you like the over and turnovers,
39:47
Speaker 1: maybe does lean towards the under. But I don't really
39:50
Speaker 1: correlate either. I just think high powered all offenses, high
39:53
Speaker 1: chance all offenses, they're just gonna be going for it
39:56
Speaker 1: the whole game. So I just like the over at
39:58
Speaker 1: this problem, all right, I like it too. It feels
40:03
Speaker 1: more like it feels more like a to me, it
40:06
Speaker 1: feels more like a hunch prop than a data prop.
40:10
Speaker 1: It's a it's a hunching scheme prop than a simulation prop. Yeah,
40:15
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that the numbers like back this up
40:17
Speaker 1: totally because interceptions are flukey place like We've seen it
40:20
Speaker 1: time and time a game where a guy will have
40:22
Speaker 1: a ball right in his hands receiving it and I'll
40:24
Speaker 1: hit his face mask and bounce to the defender who
40:26
Speaker 1: picks it. So for sure, this is a very hard
40:30
Speaker 1: thing to pin down because it is such a high
40:31
Speaker 1: volatized just play. It's give me regardless of price. What
40:38
Speaker 1: is the one? Oh my god, this is the best
40:41
Speaker 1: one that we haven't discussed, that we haven't discussed. Uh
40:47
Speaker 1: my man, Scotty Miller receiving in yards over twenty point five.
40:51
Speaker 1: I just think we know that the Chiefs defense they're
40:55
Speaker 1: gonna eventually sleep on this guy because they're gonna be
40:57
Speaker 1: paying attention to God. When they're gonna be paying attention
41:00
Speaker 1: like Evans, They're gonna be paying attention to gronk or break,
41:03
Speaker 1: and we've seen it with Scotty Miller. He's a big play,
41:06
Speaker 1: boom er bus kind of guy. So all we're hoping
41:08
Speaker 1: for here is just one yard catch from Scotty Miller
41:12
Speaker 1: for a whole Super Bowl. I just think that's really
41:14
Speaker 1: good value, especially minus one one twelve. So that's another one.
41:18
Speaker 1: I really love Scotty Miller over twenty and a half.
41:20
Speaker 1: That one I like a lot. That one I can
41:23
Speaker 1: get behind. It's something I can root for for the
41:25
Speaker 1: entire game. I'll get excited when Scotty Miller comes out
41:28
Speaker 1: of the field like this is one where I know
41:30
Speaker 1: I got a shot. Yeah, especially with we still don't
41:34
Speaker 1: know yet with the deal is na Antonio Brown, But
41:37
Speaker 1: at his age, it's sounding more and more unlikely that
41:39
Speaker 1: he's really gonna be full go, so I'm not too
41:42
Speaker 1: worried about him with taken away snaps from Scotty Miller.
41:45
Speaker 1: All right, so right now, right now, the ones that
41:47
Speaker 1: we love, uh Scotty Miller minus one twelve over twenty
41:51
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. We like the higher scoring
41:54
Speaker 1: half to be the second half at minus one twelve.
41:59
Speaker 1: We love of total sacks over four and a half
42:02
Speaker 1: of plus one twenty. You have this grated out at
42:04
Speaker 1: five and a half. We love was that at plus one.
42:10
Speaker 1: We love the longest touchdown to be over forty five
42:13
Speaker 1: and a half yards at minus one fourteen. And we
42:16
Speaker 1: want to marry a two point conversion plus two thirty
42:21
Speaker 1: two others two others that we think are really interesting,
42:23
Speaker 1: that are just sort of fun. Are three others. Any
42:28
Speaker 1: old lineman to score plus two thousand field goal or
42:31
Speaker 1: extra point to hit the cross bar crossbar plus four
42:35
Speaker 1: hundred right now, and uh total, I n t s
42:39
Speaker 1: over one and a half at plus one thirty four.
42:42
Speaker 1: I can get behind all those, Simon Hunter, You on
42:47
Speaker 1: your own and listeners can take from this what they
42:49
Speaker 1: would like. You on your own. Love over one and
42:54
Speaker 1: a half field goals in the first half at minus
43:01
Speaker 1: love it, okay, I might put a little might put
43:04
Speaker 1: a little bit, a little taste, a little taste on that.
43:08
Speaker 1: Let me um, that's pretty good. That's a that's a
43:11
Speaker 1: good round up you've given people. And it's a lot
43:13
Speaker 1: of flavor right there for the game in addition to
43:16
Speaker 1: being on the box, being on the over all that
43:19
Speaker 1: good stuff. All right, let's see Chris from Maine, what
43:22
Speaker 1: is your favorite super long shot prop that do you have?
43:25
Speaker 1: We gone through it. I think we did, right. We
43:27
Speaker 1: think it's a lineman. Yeah, that's got to be at
43:29
Speaker 1: the plus two thousands. It's just up there. For like
43:33
Speaker 1: there's other ones I do, but there's such stupid long
43:36
Speaker 1: shots that it's like nine worth giving out because they're
43:38
Speaker 1: one of these that I'm hoping it hit once every
43:40
Speaker 1: thirty five years. So with this one once every twenty years.
43:43
Speaker 1: I like the any alignment to score. Here's a great one.
43:46
Speaker 1: And uh, this is from baby fucking Whale Okay who
43:51
Speaker 1: on Twitter but clearly did not hear about the contra
43:54
Speaker 1: attempts from this past week, because his question is your love,
43:58
Speaker 1: this is taking the points on the short underdog no
44:01
Speaker 1: longer the smartest play. I've heard some claim that short
44:05
Speaker 1: dogs have become far more likely to win out right
44:08
Speaker 1: then losing cover. Should betting underdog money lines be the
44:11
Speaker 1: rule at plus three or under? Is that crazy? Simon? Yeah,
44:16
Speaker 1: I think he's talking about the plus two and a
44:17
Speaker 1: half theory, where if if there's a plus two and
44:21
Speaker 1: a half out there, you take the money line and
44:23
Speaker 1: you take the plus two and a half and you
44:25
Speaker 1: don't lay them. You don't lay the minus two and
44:27
Speaker 1: a half like the that long term the books are
44:31
Speaker 1: trying to trap you thinking you're getting a good deal
44:33
Speaker 1: taken under a field goal and a favorite where if
44:36
Speaker 1: you take the other side of the dog, that's where
44:37
Speaker 1: the value is, which can't dispute it. If once again
44:41
Speaker 1: we talked about plus numbers, if you're making a hund investment,
44:44
Speaker 1: you're getting a hundred and ten back that adds up
44:46
Speaker 1: over time when you're taking plus numbers. So I'm with this.
44:49
Speaker 1: I'm with his theory, but I do I still think
44:52
Speaker 1: the spread matters. That's what I don't want to be
44:54
Speaker 1: too harp about the spread being dead. I was mainly
44:56
Speaker 1: talking just for the Super Bowl, but we talked earlier
44:59
Speaker 1: in the year here we would do this show on
45:01
Speaker 1: a Tuesday, and the line to move most of the
45:04
Speaker 1: time by time we would post the show. I went
45:07
Speaker 1: through our entire season. We only had two for the
45:10
Speaker 1: whole year, two games that actually mattered from Tuesday to
45:14
Speaker 1: Sunday of the spread moving that if someone took the
45:17
Speaker 1: game we put out on Sunday, they either pushed her loss.
45:19
Speaker 1: So I'm with the guy. I don't. I don't try
45:22
Speaker 1: not to overthink to spread too much, but I do
45:23
Speaker 1: really care about key numbers, like during the regular season,
45:26
Speaker 1: I care about getting seven and a half or three
45:28
Speaker 1: and a half. I care about that kind of stuff.
45:32
Speaker 1: Uh V ven it asks. Does Simon's model make any
45:38
Speaker 1: account for emotional or motivational factors for underdog such as
45:43
Speaker 1: revenge spots or media discourse, bulletin board material, etcetera. I
45:49
Speaker 1: look at trends for that kind of stuff. Um, I
45:51
Speaker 1: can't really build a model. The only thing that I
45:54
Speaker 1: had built in is just randomness. So I have like
45:56
Speaker 1: a percentage put into it of just random things we
46:00
Speaker 1: happened at any given football game. And the only time
46:03
Speaker 1: that fluctuates is when there's weather, because when there's bad weather,
46:07
Speaker 1: the odds of something random that happen goes up, and
46:10
Speaker 1: the data proves that out. That turnovers other other things
46:14
Speaker 1: where we we just see that when you're looking at
46:17
Speaker 1: a football game, you have to of course tie in
46:20
Speaker 1: all that stuff, revenge games, everything like that. But unless
46:23
Speaker 1: there's trends or numbers actually back it up in that
46:25
Speaker 1: Pacific game, I don't base too much off of it.
46:29
Speaker 1: All Right, this is the last question uh Todd from
46:31
Speaker 1: Sacramento when I saved this for the end, specifically because
46:36
Speaker 1: Super Bowl MVP is always a hot topic and it's
46:40
Speaker 1: become a conversational point. His question, with the way the
46:44
Speaker 1: NFL has changed to a passing league, is it wiser
46:49
Speaker 1: to bet on who you believe will be the winning
46:51
Speaker 1: quarterback for Super Bowl m v P versus simply betting
46:55
Speaker 1: that team's money. Wine, I'm surprised there's not like an
46:59
Speaker 1: article out there that could help with this math because
47:01
Speaker 1: I don't know if the top of my head the
47:03
Speaker 1: answer to this, but I would say, just from what
47:05
Speaker 1: I've read, is the biggest liability by far right now
47:09
Speaker 1: for all sports books is my homes. He's like, I
47:12
Speaker 1: don't know if it was either he's over or seven
47:15
Speaker 1: percent of the handle right now, but it's insane the
47:17
Speaker 1: amount of money that is on my homes to be
47:19
Speaker 1: the m v P. So I would say for this
47:22
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, I don't know. I guess you can do
47:25
Speaker 1: Brady or just take one of these d n s,
47:27
Speaker 1: but it's one of those where I would not be
47:29
Speaker 1: putting money on my homes for m v P this year.
47:31
Speaker 1: I just think that it just points to kind of
47:33
Speaker 1: being a trap at this point where so much money
47:36
Speaker 1: is loaded up on him and he's not at I mean,
47:39
Speaker 1: last time I checked, he was minus. I don't get
47:43
Speaker 1: why he's on mine two if they're having this so
47:45
Speaker 1: much liability on them. So it's it's making me a
47:47
Speaker 1: little nervous right now the way the money slants it
47:50
Speaker 1: towards my home's MVP. So I would stay away from
47:54
Speaker 1: trying to make that play. Stay away, Stay away. Todd
47:58
Speaker 1: from Sacramento. All right, we got a game coming up
48:03
Speaker 1: very very soon, and we are doing another phrase that
48:06
Speaker 1: pays contests. You're gonna have to listen to the first
48:08
Speaker 1: pod after the super Bowl to find out if you won.
48:12
Speaker 1: The winner earns a hundred and ten dollars for every
48:14
Speaker 1: win Simon and I have this week based on the
48:18
Speaker 1: props that I have listed that we love. We will
48:22
Speaker 1: match that number up to five wins with a donation
48:25
Speaker 1: to the winner's favorite charity. To be eligible, go follow
48:28
Speaker 1: at the Favorites pod and tag us and use the
48:30
Speaker 1: phrase Simon says. Bet. The Big Game producer Matt Mitchell
48:36
Speaker 1: will sift through the submissions and randomly choose it. You
48:40
Speaker 1: will win the money. The winner of last week's Rollover
48:44
Speaker 1: prize five hundred dollars for this person and their favorite causes.
48:49
Speaker 1: I love this because instead of trying to make a joke,
48:54
Speaker 1: they tried to make trying to make an announcement, they
48:56
Speaker 1: tried to create a movement. One and blind Dominic. Reach
49:03
Speaker 1: out to Matt doc Mitchell at Action network dot com
49:05
Speaker 1: for your five prize. His comments tagging at the favorites pot,
49:10
Speaker 1: Simon says, we care help the Juvenile Diabetes Foundation and
49:15
Speaker 1: the National Suicide Prevention Hotline. It's just nice, just a
49:19
Speaker 1: nice thing to do, help help people. It's a terrible
49:22
Speaker 1: time going on right now, COVID, A lot of people struggling.
49:25
Speaker 1: It's nice to give back. That's all we're trying to do.
49:29
Speaker 1: We all want to give back, all right, Simon, You
49:32
Speaker 1: and I will talk again as the week goes on.
49:34
Speaker 1: We will announce what our final five favorites are going
49:37
Speaker 1: to be from the list that we've discussed. I got
49:39
Speaker 1: a pretty good idea what it won't be. That's all
49:41
Speaker 1: we got. You got one anything else you want to
49:43
Speaker 1: say to our fans before we DeCamp for Super Bowl? Uh? Yeah,
49:47
Speaker 1: just to enjoy it. This is it. It's been a
49:50
Speaker 1: long season. We have an incredible matchup. It's incredible we've
49:53
Speaker 1: even gotten to this point. I'm just so excited. And
49:57
Speaker 1: whatever you do with this super Bowl, just remember we'll
50:00
Speaker 1: be back next year. Win or loose. Me and Cha
50:02
Speaker 1: we back. So it's been a great year. Man, We're
50:05
Speaker 1: coming back. This has been the favorite from the Action Network.
50:09
Speaker 1: Guy am Chad Moelman. He is Simon Hunter. Download the
50:11
Speaker 1: podcast from Apple, podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.
50:16
Speaker 1: I love you, Yeah,