Latest / The President's Daily Brief / October 16th, 2026: Ukraine Resumes Russian Oil Strikes & Moscow's Massive New Drone Base
Transcript
- 0:00Hey,
- 0:00Mike Baker here.
- 0:02Now,
- 0:02before we get started,
- 0:03a quick reminder
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- 0:19to sign up or click the link in the description.
- 0:22And from the entire PDB team,
- 0:25thank you for supporting the show.
- 0:40It's Friday,
- 0:41the 16th of October.
- 0:42Look at that,
- 0:43we've made it to the end of another work week.
- 0:45Well done,
- 0:46everyone.
- 0:46Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
- 0:48I'm Mike Baker,
- 0:49your eyes and ears on the world stage.
- 0:52All right,
- 0:53let's get briefed.
- 0:54First up,
- 0:55Ukraine declares an end to President Trump's supposed energy ceasefire.
- 1:00Well,
- 1:01now that would be the ceasefire that neither side had agreed to,
- 1:05ending Ukraine's unilateral pause on
- 1:07targeting Russian energy infrastructure.
- 1:10After accusing Moscow of ignoring the supposed agreement,
- 1:14that was never really an agreement.
- 1:16I know it's a tad bit confusing,
- 1:19but we'll have the details
- 1:20later in the show.
- 1:22Russia has built a massive new drone base in just 6 weeks,
- 1:26expanding Moscow's ability
- 1:27to strike targets across Ukraine.
- 1:30Plus,
- 1:31China
- 1:31issues a new warning to Taiwan following a confrontation at sea.
- 1:36As the US raises alarms over
- 1:38Beijing's increasingly aggressive maritime operations.
- 1:42And in today's back of the brief,
- 1:44President Trump reverses course on plans to live
- 1:48stream the execution of the Fort Hood gunman.
- 1:52I never thought I would actually say the phrase
- 1:54live stream the execution.
- 1:56But first,
- 1:57today's PDB spotlight.
- 1:59Ukraine is once again attacking Russian oil facilities,
- 2:02with President Zelensky declaring that Kiev is finished
- 2:06unilaterally honoring President Trump's proposed energy ceasefire.
- 2:11A large scale drone assault struck Russia's Ryazan region early Thursday,
- 2:16setting fire to a major oil refinery
- 2:19about 180 miles southeast of Moscow.
- 2:23Now the attacks also damaged a warehouse and
- 2:25prompted Russian authorities to cancel schools across two districts.
- 2:29The refinery itself is an important target
- 2:33operated by Russian oil giant Rosneft.
- 2:36The facility supplies fuel to Moscow and accounts for
- 2:39nearly 5% of Russia's total oil refining throughput.
- 2:44The full extent of the damage remains unclear,
- 2:46but the attack marks a significant development
- 2:49in the growing confrontation between Kiev and Washington
- 2:52over Ukraine's campaign against Russia's oil industry.
- 2:56As we've reported,
- 2:58President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between
- 3:01Russia and Ukraine over the weekend,
- 3:02despite neither side being aware that there was an agreement.
- 3:06Ukraine subsequently suspended its attacks on Russian oil facilities
- 3:10for 3 days.
- 3:12Moscow,
- 3:12however,
- 3:13continued pounding Ukrainian infrastructure with missiles and drones.
- 3:17Those attacks left hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without electricity,
- 3:21including some 600,000 people
- 3:23who lost power following Russian strikes earlier this week.
- 3:27And now Zelensky
- 3:28says Ukraine has had enough.
- 3:30In an interview with the Financial Times published Thursday,
- 3:33the Ukrainian president declared that
- 3:35his country was finished unilaterally observing
- 3:37the restrictions and would resume its
- 3:40campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.
- 3:43The decision
- 3:44puts Kiev on a direct collision course with the Trump administration,
- 3:48which has been pushing Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil facilities,
- 3:53despite the fact that Russia
- 3:55has not stopped targeting
- 3:57Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
- 3:59But that's another point.
- 4:00Trump has blamed those attacks,
- 4:02the Ukrainian attacks,
- 4:03that is,
- 4:04for contributing to soaring global diesel prices.
- 4:07His administration has also eased restrictions
- 4:10on Russian diesel exports.
- 4:12In an effort to increase global supplies,
- 4:15now there's no word
- 4:16as to whether the White House thinks the Iran
- 4:18conflict with its disruptions to two major trade routes
- 4:22has had anything to do with the rising fuel prices.
- 4:25Zelensky argues that attacking Russian refineries is one of
- 4:28Ukraine's most effective means of weakening Moscow's war effort.
- 4:32The strikes disrupt fuel production,
- 4:34impose additional costs on the Russian economy,
- 4:37and force Moscow to divert resources toward protecting facilities
- 4:41deep inside its own territory.
- 4:44And according to Zelensky,
- 4:45Ukraine should not be expected to stop those
- 4:48attacks while Russia continues destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
- 4:53Zelensky suggested that Ukraine could reconsider its refinery campaign
- 4:57if Washington
- 4:59agreed to provide additional American-made Patriot missile interceptors,
- 5:03which Kiev desperately needs
- 5:04to defend against Russian ballistic missile attacks,
- 5:07which again have not stopped.
- 5:10But this dispute over energy strikes
- 5:12is only part of the increasingly strained relationship between the two countries.
- 5:17There's also been a significant
- 5:18development involving the American satellite technology
- 5:22that Ukrainian forces rely on for battlefield operations.
- 5:26As we reported yesterday on the PDB,
- 5:29Ukrainian troops reported unexpected restrictions
- 5:32on SpaceX's satellite communications services,
- 5:35particularly StarShield.
- 5:37That's the military-focused version of Starlink.
- 5:40The restrictions reportedly limited connectivity
- 5:43for terminals traveling faster than approximately 100
- 5:47MPH.
- 5:48That's a serious problem for Ukraine's military,
- 5:50which
- 5:51relies on those systems to maintain communications with
- 5:54drones and other fast moving battlefield equipment.
- 5:57However,
- 5:58on Thursday,
- 5:59a source inside Ukraine's Defense Ministry confirmed that Starshield service
- 6:03had been fully restored.
- 6:05Axios also reported.
- 6:07That both Starlink and StarShield
- 6:09were operating at full capacity.
- 6:11That's according to a Ukrainian official.
- 6:14So the immediate disruption appears to have been resolved.
- 6:17What remains unanswered
- 6:19is why the restrictions were imposed in the first place,
- 6:22and that's where things get
- 6:23particularly interesting.
- 6:25Elon Musk,
- 6:26whose company SpaceX developed and operates the satellite technology,
- 6:30has pointed toward Washington.
- 6:32Responding to questions about the disruption.
- 6:34Musk said that StarShield systems are owned and controlled by the US government.
- 6:39And that restrictions on their speed or usage
- 6:42are decided by the American military and ultimately the president.
- 6:46In other words,
- 6:47Musk says these decisions are not his to make.
- 6:50That has naturally raised questions
- 6:53about whether the Trump administration
- 6:55deliberately restricted Ukraine's military communications
- 6:58as a means of pressuring Zelensky over the refinery attacks.
- 7:03According to Axios,
- 7:04officials within both the American and Ukrainian governments
- 7:08remain uncertain about who authorized the disruptions.
- 7:12So
- 7:13while the timing has fueled suspicions in Kiev,
- 7:15there is currently no confirmed evidence that the interruption
- 7:19was an act of political pressure.
- 7:21For now,
- 7:21Ukraine's military satellite service is back online,
- 7:25but the question of who ordered the restrictions and why,
- 7:28well,
- 7:28that remains unanswered.
- 7:31All right.
- 7:31Coming up next,
- 7:32Russia builds a massive new drone base in just 6 weeks,
- 7:37and tensions rise around Taiwan
- 7:39following a maritime confrontation with China.
- 7:42I'll be right back.
- 7:45Hey,
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- 9:06Welcome back to the PDB.
- 9:08As Ukraine prepares for another winter of Russian attacks,
- 9:12new satellite images reveal that Moscow has built a new
- 9:15launch site for some of its fastest attack drones.
- 9:18The sprawling base near Ukraine has
- 9:20taken shape in just 6 weeks,
- 9:22giving Russia another launch pad for its ongoing aerial campaign.
- 9:27On the 31st of August,
- 9:29the site in Russia's southwestern Rostov region,
- 9:32which directly borders eastern Ukraine.
- 9:35It
- 9:35was essentially an empty field.
- 9:37By Wednesday,
- 9:38satellite images provided by Planet Labs and Airbus
- 9:42showed a nearly completed military complex roughly
- 9:45the size of 170 American football fields.
- 9:50Mike Monik,
- 9:51the founder and CEO of private intelligence company DroneSec,
- 9:54says it will be probably a matter of weeks before it's fully operational,
- 9:59if not earlier,
- 10:00end quote.
- 10:02Along the western edge of the complex,
- 10:03Monik identified 8 platforms for launch rails apparently capable of firing the
- 10:09Garon 4 and Gon 5.
- 10:11Now those are Russia's newest jet-powered attack drones.
- 10:14This would expand a network of at least 11 fixed sites that Russia is already using
- 10:20to launch drone attacks against Ukraine.
- 10:23Monik estimates the new facility
- 10:25could eventually launch 100 or more jet-powered drones in a single 24 hour period.
- 10:31Now it remains unclear whether Ukraine
- 10:33detected the site during the construction process
- 10:36or if it's attempted to target the site already.
- 10:40Dronese does,
- 10:41however,
- 10:41identify one potential obstacle.
- 10:44The complex likely sits inside the air defense bubble
- 10:48provided by systems at a nearby Russian air base,
- 10:51making it harder for Ukraine to successfully hit the site.
- 10:55The Gar 4 and Gon 5 are jet powered,
- 10:58unlike the slower piston-powered drones
- 11:00that Russia has relied on heavily throughout the war.
- 11:03These newer weapons can reportedly reach speeds
- 11:07of up to 370
- 11:09MPH.
- 11:10Ukraine
- 11:11has developed relatively inexpensive interceptor drones
- 11:15to hunt down Russia's slower attack drones,
- 11:17reducing the need to fire costly surface to air missiles at each incoming target.
- 11:22But that approach depends on the interceptor being able to catch its target.
- 11:26Russia's jet-powered models can move too quickly for many of the systems that
- 11:30Ukraine developed to counter their slower predecessors.
- 11:34Kiev is
- 11:35now scrambling to find a solution.
- 11:37And the number of these weapons being used is already rising sharply.
- 11:41According to Ukrainian military data reported by Reuters last month.
- 11:45Russia increased its use of jet-powered attack drones roughly 6-fold
- 11:50over 3 months this summer.
- 11:52For Ukraine,
- 11:53the timing makes this especially concerning
- 11:55with the full-scale war well into its 5th year.
- 11:59Ukrainian officials expect Russia to intensify its
- 12:02drone and missile attacks this winter.
- 12:05And for Washington and its NATO allies,
- 12:07the concern extends beyond Ukraine's borders.
- 12:10European governments already accuse Moscow of
- 12:13escalating sabotage,
- 12:15drone incursions,
- 12:16and cyberattacks
- 12:18across the continent as relations between Russia and NATO deteriorate.
- 12:23All right,
- 12:24tensions between China and Taiwan arising again
- 12:26after a confrontation in the South China Sea
- 12:30prompted a sharp warning from Beijing,
- 12:32adding to growing concerns about China's increasingly aggressive efforts
- 12:37to challenge Taipei's control over its own territory.
- 12:40The incident occurred earlier this month near the Pratis Islands.
- 12:44It's a remote group of Taiwan-controlled atolls
- 12:48located roughly halfway between southern Taiwan and Hong Kong.
- 12:52According to Taiwan's coast guard,
- 12:54a Chinese fishing vessel
- 12:56failed to respond to warnings to move away from restricted waters near the islands,
- 13:00prompting a Taiwanese patrol ship to deploy its water cannon.
- 13:05The fishing boat
- 13:06subsequently suffered engine failure
- 13:08and was towed away by another Chinese vessel.
- 13:11Beijing responded Wednesday with a sharp warning.
- 13:14A spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office
- 13:17insisted that Beijing has indisputable sovereignty
- 13:21over the Prata Islands and their surrounding waters,
- 13:24declaring that Chinese vessels have every right to operate in the area.
- 13:29The spokesperson accused Taiwan of deliberately provoking a confrontation
- 13:33and endangering Chinese personnel,
- 13:35warning that Taipei must bear the consequences
- 13:38of its actions without specifying what those
- 13:41consequences might be.
- 13:43Taiwanese officials meanwhile defended the Coast
- 13:45Guard's actions as routine law enforcement,
- 13:48insisting that its response
- 13:50was careful and proportionate.
- 13:52But it's the location of this confrontation
- 13:55that's raising eyebrows.
- 13:57The Pratis Islands sit more than 250 miles from Taiwan itself,
- 14:02making them one of the island's most isolated and
- 14:05vulnerable outposts.
- 14:07They,
- 14:07they're only lightly defended
- 14:09and primarily protected by Taiwan's coast guard
- 14:12rather than major military forces.
- 14:14Security analysts have long warned that the
- 14:17Prota Islands could become an early flashpoint
- 14:19in a future confrontation between China and Taiwan,
- 14:23particularly.
- 14:24Because Beijing may see the isolated islands as an opportunity to pressure Taipei
- 14:29without triggering a full-scale regional conflict.
- 14:33And this is not the first time that tensions have flared there in recent months,
- 14:37as we reported on the PDB back in May.
- 14:40Chinese and Taiwanese coast guard vessels engaged in
- 14:43a tense standoff near the Prota Islands after
- 14:46Beijing's forces asserted sovereignty over the islands
- 14:50and claimed that they were conducting a routine patrol.
- 14:53It ended without violence,
- 14:54but the
- 14:54latest incident
- 14:56underscores just how easily these encounters can turn more confrontational.
- 15:01It also comes amid growing concerns in Taipei that China
- 15:04is expanding its use of so-called gray zone tactics,
- 15:07employing a combination of military,
- 15:10paramilitary,
- 15:11and ostensibly civilian vessels
- 15:13to challenge Taiwan's control over its surrounding waters.
- 15:17Speaking Wednesday,
- 15:18a senior Taiwanese national security official
- 15:21warned that Beijing was increasingly using
- 15:23maritime militia boats and research vessels
- 15:27as part of what he described as incremental acts of aggression.
- 15:30Raising the specter of potential disruptions
- 15:33to shipping routes and critical infrastructure,
- 15:36Taiwanese officials also fear these expanding
- 15:39operations could be part of Beijing's preparations
- 15:42for a potential blockade of the island.
- 15:45And as we discussed on Friday's BDB,
- 15:48Reuters recently revealed that a suspected Chinese maritime militia vessel
- 15:53had been detected off Taiwan's eastern coast for the first time in August,
- 15:57operating in the same area as a Chinese Coast Guard cutter and research ship.
- 16:03Those waters are particularly important because Taiwan
- 16:06considers them a critical route for receiving
- 16:08supplies from its allies in the event of a Chinese blockade or military conflict.
- 16:14As a reminder,
- 16:15China's maritime militia consists of fishing vessels
- 16:18whose crews receive training and support from the PLA Navy
- 16:22to advance Beijing's territorial claims,
- 16:24often operating alongside Chinese coast guard forces.
- 16:28Now there's no evidence in the latest Reuters reporting
- 16:32that the fishing boat involved in the
- 16:33Pratt Island confrontation belongs to that militia,
- 16:36but the growing use of ostensibly civilian vessels
- 16:40in Beijing's maritime operations
- 16:43helps explain why Taiwanese authorities are increasingly sensitive
- 16:46to Chinese activity around their territory.
- 16:49And Washington is taking notice.
- 16:52Following last week's revelations,
- 16:53the US State Department condemned China's
- 16:56activities off Taiwan's eastern coast as quote
- 16:59deeply destabilizing.
- 17:01The State Department warned that
- 17:02Beijing's attempts to assert authority over waters administered by Taiwan
- 17:06were increasing regional tensions
- 17:09and undermining prospects for a peaceful resolution.
- 17:12Meanwhile,
- 17:13China's military pressure continues,
- 17:15and Taiwan reported another Chinese joint combat
- 17:18readiness patrol near the island on Wednesday
- 17:21involving 13 aircraft including
- 17:23J-16 fighter jets,
- 17:25along with an unspecified number of naval vessels.
- 17:28Beijing also confirmed
- 17:30that an aircraft carrier and accompanying warships
- 17:33were conducting exercises in the Western Pacific.
- 17:37OK.
- 17:38Coming up in the back of the brief,
- 17:39President Trump
- 17:40pulls the plug
- 17:42on plans to live stream the execution of the man responsible for the deadly 2009
- 17:48Fort Hood shootings.
- 17:50More on that when we come back.
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- 20:07In today's back of the brief,
- 20:08I wanna catch you up on that unprecedented plan to live
- 20:12stream the execution of Fort Hood murderer and terrorist Nidal Hassan.
- 20:17Now,
- 20:17it's been getting plenty of attention across news networks and social media,
- 20:21and President Trump,
- 20:22who initially supported the idea,
- 20:24has now called off the live stream.
- 20:27Trump laid out his reasoning Thursday on Truth Social.
- 20:30He still saw an argument for letting the world
- 20:32witness the punishment for an atrocity like Hassan's.
- 20:36But he also acknowledged the objections to broadcasting it
- 20:39as the president wrote,
- 20:41quote,
- 20:41I think streaming the execution for all to see
- 20:44might have a strong deterrent for the world to witness
- 20:47how America deals with terrorists and scum like Hassan.
- 20:50And then came the reservation.
- 20:52Trump said,
- 20:52quote,
- 20:53But many very good and well-meaning people
- 20:56would rather not watch him die,
- 20:58end quote.
- 20:59Now,
- 20:59of course,
- 21:00it did not change his position on the sentence for Hassan.
- 21:04Trump stated,
- 21:04quote,
- 21:04he will die as scheduled by firing squad,
- 21:07but this event will not be live streamed,
- 21:10end quote.
- 21:11Hassan's execution remains scheduled for the 3rd of December.
- 21:15The families of his victims can still attend in person if they choose.
- 21:19Now,
- 21:19a Pentagon spokesman says Secretary of Defense or War,
- 21:22whichever,
- 21:23Pete Hegseth spoke with Trump before the announcement.
- 21:26Hegseth had pushed to let Americans watch the execution online.
- 21:31His reasoning was that someone who carries out an attack like Hassan's
- 21:36should face serious consequences.
- 21:37Well,
- 21:37yeah,
- 21:37I think everyone can agree with that.
- 21:39But Hegseth believed the public should see those consequences carried out,
- 21:43so he apparently came up with the idea
- 21:45to live stream the execution.
- 21:47Now
- 21:48very 2026 of him.
- 21:50For those who have forgotten and were familiar
- 21:52with the brutal nature of Hassan's crimes,
- 21:55soldiers preparing for deployments were gathered inside a
- 21:58crowded medical processing facility at Fort Hood,
- 22:01Texas.
- 22:02They were unarmed,
- 22:03waiting for checkups and vaccinations.
- 22:06Hassan at the time
- 22:08was an army psychiatrist,
- 22:09someone entrusted
- 22:11with caring for service members.
- 22:13Instead,
- 22:14he walked into the building
- 22:15and opened fire.
- 22:16He killed 13 people and wounded another 32
- 22:20in the deadliest non-combat attack ever carried out on an American military base.
- 22:25At his 2013 court martial,
- 22:28he admitted that he was the gunman.
- 22:30He said he believed he was protecting Muslims
- 22:32and the Taliban in Afghanistan from the American military.
- 22:36That
- 22:37was his justification
- 22:39for all the killings.
- 22:40His courtroom apology was for,
- 22:42any mistakes.
- 22:43Oh,
- 22:44that's nice.
- 22:45Hassan was convicted of 13 counts of premeditated murder and 32 counts
- 22:49of attempted premeditated murder and sentenced to death.
- 22:53It was a punishment for that attack
- 22:55that Hegseth wanted the public to witness,
- 22:58as he put it,
- 22:58quote,
- 22:59People need to understand that there are serious consequences
- 23:02for these types of things,
- 23:04end quote.
- 23:05The Pentagon
- 23:06then confirmed that there would be a live stream.
- 23:09When Trump was asked last Friday whether he approved,
- 23:12his answer was one word,
- 23:14quote,
- 23:14Absolutely.
- 23:16But even that day there were signs that the plan wasn't settled.
- 23:20Trump noted that he had not personally made the decision.
- 23:22And said the Pentagon was still quote,
- 23:24making a determination.
- 23:27Trump called Hassan,
- 23:28quote,
- 23:28totally nuts
- 23:29and said,
- 23:30quote,
- 23:30I really don't care how he goes as long as he goes,
- 23:33and I think that the death penalty
- 23:35is a very worthy way of going for him,
- 23:38end quote.
- 23:39Hm.
- 23:40The disagreement taking shape was over
- 23:42what broadcasting that punishment would accomplish.
- 23:44Those reservations extended into the administration.
- 23:47Vice President JD Vance questioned whether the live stream would actually happen
- 23:52and made clear that he would not watch it.
- 23:54Lawmakers from both parties also objected,
- 23:56as did religious leaders,
- 23:58and by the weekend,
- 23:59Trump was acknowledging
- 24:01the competing arguments
- 24:02and saying the final decision would be his.
- 24:05He brought the debate to a close with yesterday's announcement.
- 24:09Now the execution
- 24:11is set to go on as scheduled.
- 24:13It will be the American military's first since 1961
- 24:16and its first by firing squad since 1945.
- 24:20The execution
- 24:22will take place at Fort Hood,
- 24:24the scene of Hassan's terrorist acts.
- 24:27Now you know that here on the PDB
- 24:29we do work hard to try and keep opinion down to a minimum.
- 24:33Our goal is to try and tell you what's happening around the
- 24:37world and then let you decide how to think about it.
- 24:40But
- 24:41perhaps the idea of televising the Hassan execution
- 24:45deserves a brief opinion.
- 24:47Now,
- 24:48I've spent much of my life overseas,
- 24:51sometimes in hostile environments where public executions are
- 24:54carried out by regimes and terrorist organizations.
- 24:59But the US is neither.
- 25:00We may not always meet our lofty ideals,
- 25:04but we should at least strive to reach them.
- 25:07Make no mistake,
- 25:08I have absolutely no problem with Hassan being executed.
- 25:12I believe it's clear cut
- 25:13that he deserves the death penalty,
- 25:16but
- 25:17that doesn't mean
- 25:18that we should invite folks down to the public square
- 25:21to watch the stoning.
- 25:23And that,
- 25:24my friends,
- 25:24is the president's daily Brief for Friday,
- 25:26the 16th of October.
- 25:28If you have any questions or comments,
- 25:30please reach out to me at PDB@hefirstv.com.
- 25:34And finally,
- 25:34you'll be pleased as a bunch to know that a brand new episode of our weekend show,
- 25:38the PDB Situation Report,
- 25:40is sitting on the launch pad.
- 25:42It'll hit the airwaves at 10:00 p.m. this evening on the first TV.
- 25:45And
- 25:45as always,
- 25:46well,
- 25:47thanks to the magic of the Internet.
- 25:49You can catch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel,
- 25:52that's at President's Daily Brief
- 25:54and of course on podcast platforms
- 25:56all over town.
- 25:57I hope you'll tune in.
- 25:58I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today
- 26:01with the PDB afternoon bulletin.
- 26:03Until then,
- 26:04stay informed,
- 26:05stay safe,
- 26:07stay cool.