Latest / Black Box Theory Podcast / Long-Term Investing Beats the Timeline. Every Time.
Transcript
- Thomas: And also you want to make sure you're thinking long term. whether Malcolm: Mm-hmm. Thomas: it's a stock at ETF, for all my people out there investing, we neither of us are day traders. neither of us do like Malcolm: Absolutely not. Thomas: short calls and puts. Like I getting rich quick never works for anyone, whether you're sports betting, whether you're whether you're gambling, whether it's investments, getting rich quick does not work. You can hit five times, that six times you might lose it all. So Malcolm: Mm-hmm. Thomas: you gotta think long term. So Don't worry so much about the day to day or the week to week or even the month to month. Honestly, if if you believe and and you have data to support that belief and you know where things are going, like that's a great time. Like, for example, right, Visa was down for a little bit earlier this year. Malcolm: Mm. Thomas: And Visa, you have to know Visa's gonna go back up. It's the largest marketplace transaction, most used transaction in the world, platform, and also you know, passports and things. So They kind of have not a monopoly, but they have some areas that they really have locked down. So you see that some things are a sale. Some stuff might be down 30, 40%. And when when it when it has those pullbacks, if you know it's it's gonna come back or long term, you believe five years it this is gonna continue to be relevant, man. Those dips, like the bigger, the longer, the further out you make the chart, those those dips that may look crazy for a week or a day or a month. Malcolm: Those are buying opportunities, man. That's when you load up, right? And so it's like Thomas: Yeah, and they disappear, bro. Like Malcolm: they do. And so it's like you have to like I think a lot of people just like a lot of it is like the panic. Like you have to really I've talked about this before, but you really have like when it comes to investing, bro, especially long term investors, you can't get got up caught up in the day to day. You know, there are time there are going to be times where it's bad weeks where your everything just looks red and there's gonna be weeks where everything looks green, right? But it's like that's not what I'm concerned about. I'm considered concerned about when you zoom out on this chart. What does my my one month return look like? What does my three month return look like? What's my year to date return? My one year, my three year, my five year, right? Those are the those are the views I'm more concerned about, not what's happening today, right? If you're you know, if you're doing day trading or swing trading, yes, that would be more of a concern to you. But for someone that's not planning on on withdrawing any of their investments anytime soon, it's like, all right, like, you know, like like like what's the what's the long term player? If you like something at $200, you have to like it at a hundred. If you really believe Thomas: Yeah. Malcolm: in the company, if you really believe in the the leadership and the people that are making it and and the direction of the company and then the strategy and like, you know, if Wall Street, you know, is is backing it or not, like if you like something at at fifty, you gotta like it at twenty, right? So it's like that's kinda like the mindset you have to have. You can't get caught up in like like trying to find the perfect price or the perfect entry. Like, bro, if you buy it, bro, like invest. Like that's it's investing, bro. It's like it's it's and at the end of the day, like time of the market always beats market timing. Trying to trying to you're gonna end up losing more money trying to find the perfect entry point than than just putting your capital in in into a into a you know into a into a a security or into an you know an asset that's that's really gonna make it run. So like I said everyone's not meant to be a a a quant trader. Everyone's not meant to be a hedge fund manager. Just just do what's what's proven. No need to reinvent the wheel. and and kinda kinda keep it going from there, man. Thomas: Yeah, and a good analogy for this is if there's somebody you want to talk to, you see Malcolm: Okay. Thomas: somebody you you want to talk to or something you want to do, you gotta go for it. You can't just try to wait around, whether it's good or bad. Like let's say, let's say you transfer to a school, right? You you go to Malcolm: Mm-hmm. Thomas: a school to play sports, that's cool. They just had a bad year, they just lost every game in the season. Are you not gonna go there? Let's say it's it's Alabama, right? You you're a top football player, you go to Alabama, it's a gamble. Or you could go to the thing that's at the top and it might fall off. You can go to the thing Malcolm: Yeah. Thomas: that's at the bottom, might blow up. Either way, you gotta have that belief. And there's never the right timing. But some people do think that you have to time. And some people, like Malcolm was sent, were sent was saying, yeah, that you can't you can't be too crazy about it. You got to try to find balance. So just like for someone you want to talk to, you talk to that person, but you don't push it too far. You don't Malcolm: Mm-hmm. Thomas: just keep trying to push push the issue. But we have some people who will now do that.