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A's/Mariners MLB + WNBA Best Bets Sunday 8/24/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OHN
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Oh in four, I
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man, with wookends slump
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack Man,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could poss We have
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: back with you as I always am until I die.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: At least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five the worst month
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: To the slumperies, the slump discontinus, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. This is
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: better off dead. Sunday, August twenty fourth, not a good
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: day on the show yesterday. Obviously not the way I
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: wanted to kick off college football season. Not the way
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I wanted to kick it off yesterday. I'm gonna complain
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: about that though. Kansas State, I mean, if you look
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: at the statistics in that game, they dominated basically every
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: stat they dominated up until Iowa State just ran the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: ball a little bit more at the end to run
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the clock. Kansas State had more rushing yards in the game,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: way more passing yards in the game. Kansas City is
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: still Kansas City. Kids of State had three more yards
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: per play on like a similar number of plays in
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the game, and they still didn't win the game, and
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: they only lost the turnover battle by one. It all
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: came down to, like just not making the plays at
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the specific times that they needed to be made, Like
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Kansas State had a bad third down conversion rate. They
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: had more third downs in the game, and they had
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: a bad fourth down conversion rate, and Iowa stated I
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: think was one hundred percent on fourth down conversions. That
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: was basically the difference in the game. Like, statistically, Kansas
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: State absolutely dominated the game. They outgained Iowa State by
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I think at least one hundred yards and it was
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: more than that for a lot of the game. Again,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: they outgained them. I think it was like seven yards
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: per play versus four something like that. You will almost
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: never see a team lose when they do something like that. Again,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: way more passing yards. The completion percentage was way higher
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: on the part of Kansas State as well. Becked was awful.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I think he had below a fifty percent completion percentage.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: And it wasn't running the ball over the place either.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Kansas State had. Again, they had more rushing yards until
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: the very end of the game. So it's like, how
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the fuck do you lose that game? I don't even know.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I didn't watch the whole thing. I had it on
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I was at my parents' house. I was watching, like
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: some of it. It made no sense man, just statistically
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: that absolutely should have been a winner. I did give
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: out winners on my leans in college football lean my
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: spread analysis went three and two, but unfortunately that was
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: one of the two losers. Isn't that great? Then we
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: lost sudden the Red Sox Yankees first five under the total,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: which was trending in the right direction. We had no
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: score I think into the third inning, and then the
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: wheels kind of started coming off Will Warren. But at
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: least for my purposes, at least the Red Sox won.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: But the Red Sox put up a couple of runs.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: At that point, it was still looking okay, and it's like,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: all right, the Red Sox are up to nothing in
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the third inning or whatever, like we could still get
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: this done. But then the Red Sox made a four
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: and then it's like, well, you have to hope for
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: a push, and then I believe it was five to
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: one by the time the fifth inning was done. So
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: very unfortunate. There Crocheted did his part. Will Warren did not.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: But again, at least I'm happy the Red Sox are
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: embarrassing the Yankees, which is at least something, because I
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: don't think the Red Sox are gonna make it as
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: far as the Yankees do this year. But it is
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: fun to watch. It's fun to watch the Yankees fielding
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: just completely collapse. When it's the Red Sox fielding. It's
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: been terrible recently. Vulty in another stupid fielding mistake yesterday
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: he basically chuck knoblocked it like jazz Jack chislm jazz
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Chism did the previous day. So two games in a
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: row they've had one of their infielders just chuck it
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: into the stands over first base and it was Vulpy
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: yesterday and it's so crazy, dude. And Aaron Boone was
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: defending Volpi the day before that when he threw it
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: to second base when there's no force out at second
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: base on a ground ball to short with a run
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: around second. I mean, it just makes absolutely no sense.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: It's indefensible. Is such an idiot, dude, which is also
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: fun to see, because fuck that guy for ruining our
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Red Sox dreams. In two thousand and three, rip to
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Tim Wakefield, by the way, and then we did lose
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: on Kansas City as well, the Royals. It was a
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: close game. They couldn't get it done. I mean that
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: was probably that was the loss that I found the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: easiest to take, to be honest, because they were never
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: winning the game. I don't think it was just they
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: were close. They were down one for a lot of
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the game, but it was just they never really had
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: it there. They lost four to two, and then we
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: had an easy win at the Chicago Cubs. The play
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I decided to add late blowout win. I think they
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: won twelve to nothing or twelve to one, very easy
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: win from the Cubs yesterday, So that was an easy one.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: When move on to today today, this is a weird,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: weird card memory. I like a lot of unders. Today.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I have three that I'm gonna give out his plays
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: that are all first five unders, and you have to
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: pay a little bit of an extra price for them.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna give out one side as well, and
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: you can see one of the games I'm talking about
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: description here. Every game that I have a play on
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: is not one of the games that people really want
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: to hear about, not one of the more interesting games.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: So let's go to the rundown. We do have WNBA today,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: but by the way, before I forget, because there's no
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: NFL now until the actual NFL season starts with I
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: believe Cowboys Eagles on Thursday night, September fourth or whatever
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: is the first NFL game, so we have no more
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: NFL until then. But I forgot to talk about the
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: NFL preseason game yesterday with the Browns were like a
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: nine point favorite against the Rams, so I forgot to say,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: you probably wanted to look for the Browns to go
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: over their team total in that game yesterday. I don't
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: know if they did. They scored nineteen and they won.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: They didn't cover, but that was a situation where it's like, well,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the Browns, there's no way they should have been a
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: nine point favorite. But the reason for that was because
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford has a bad back. Man, I don't know,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: he didn't play in preseason at all, so you knew
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: he wasn't gonna play yesterday for the Rams either. And
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Sean McVay he's notorious for not playing his starters at
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: all in preseason and just not caring at all. So
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, I forgot completely forgot to talk about that
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: game yesterday, unfortunately, and then I don't even know which
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks made it in for the Browns. I believe the
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: reason why the line moved so much is because Joe
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Flacco was actually gonna be in that game. I think
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: he probably was for a bit. I know, I saw
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: one player Sanders took a negative twenty four yard sack,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: so things are really working out for that guy. But whatever,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and my Baltimore ravens Lean got there. They actually covered
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: that bigger number too, So I should have given out
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: a play on that. That was the closest that I'd
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: been to giving out a play in preseason because of
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the weird, like unique revenge angle on that. But let's
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: talk about WNBA. I'm not gonna have any plays here,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: but we got a few games. We need more dildos.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Washington, I mean Seattle. Both of these teams
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: are actually fighting to make the playoffs. But Seattle is
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: the better of these two teams. Washington, and they're playing
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: some bad basketball right now. Three more losses in a row,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: including two to the really bad Connecticut son. I mean,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: what do you even doing, man? Connecticut actually is ahead
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: of Chicago in the standings now, somehow Washington staying at
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: home at least Seattle coming in from I don't even
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: know where they're coming in. But Washington played yesterday against
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Vegas and had a somewhat close game. So Washington is
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: on a back to back, which is not good. Seattle
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: just blew out Dallas. I don't know they're gonna be
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: feeling really high on themselves about beating Dallas. I mean
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: maybe whenever you've being anybody by thirty plus points, you
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: may be feeling a little bit too high on yourselves.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So this is a game I don't I just don't
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: think you could touch the game. Seattle is up from
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: seven to nine. It looks like the money is coming
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: in on that side. I guess to do with that
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: information what you want to Golden State at Dallas. Dallas
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: again did just get blown out by Seattle, and they're
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: staying at home. They don't have a whole lot left
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: to play for him. Maybe they'll show up for a
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: home game against Golden State, who's trying to make the
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: playoffs as well. Right now, sitting at five hundred, Golden
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: State couple losses in a row to some pretty good
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: teams and Landa, Phoenix and Phoenix again. They're going from
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Phoenix to Dallas here, continuing a road trip. I mean,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I think Golden State does need the game more they're
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: sitting in a too a half point favor It looks
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: like the numbers actually dropped a little bit on them.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Really difficult to figure that out because I think probably
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I would slightly lean to Golden State in that one,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: but I don't. Yeah, I mean, it's really difficult to
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: gauge that. And then we have Dallas still. They're coming
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: out of an embarrassing loss, so they might want to
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that as well. Indiana now has a
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: game under the belt without Sophie Cunningham, and by the way,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: they didn't cover. They lost at home to Minnesota, and
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: both teams shot out in their minds in this game.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: They both scored over ninety The shooting percentages were insane
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: on both sides of this game. Minnesota was still without
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: call Here, who's the best player in the league and
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: she probably should be the MVP, and Minnesota has been
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: still winning without her. Indiana is still without Caitlin Clark.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: That was the first game without Sophie Cunningham, so it
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: was an injured player spawn and they almost covered. They
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: played really well, so now they have to go out
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: on the road and play Minnesota again. I'm not sure
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Indiana is gonna be able to keep up that intensity
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: this time with Caitlyn Clark still not back, Sophie Cunningham
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: second game out, and Minnesota is getting call here back.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: But that's the one thing that makes me kind of
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: not want to jump in and weigh the points in Minnesota.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: They're up from eleven to twelve here, but because Colliers
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: coming back, they have to work her back into the rotation.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So it's that like reverse injured player spot where the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: team might feel like they can kind of take their
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: foot off their gas a little bit, especially when they
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: just beat Indiana on the road. So it is a
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: quick road revenge spot for Indiana at least got a man,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: my glasses keep keep fogging up, man, But yeah, I
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: mean I would probably actually have a slight lean to
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Indiana there because of the way that sets up the
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: road revenge plus the reverse injured player theory there. But
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Indiana very very injured. They're in the second game during
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: the game after the injured player spots. That's not really
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: a great spot for them either. Let's go to Major
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: League Baseball here, man, We got a bunch of afternoon
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: games because it's a lot of teams are going to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: be traveling Colorado Pittsburgh. This is one of the games
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: where I was eyeing the under potentially in this game.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: We got an interesting pitching matchup in this one. As
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: far as the bullpens, I mean, the bullpens are not
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: particularly good. We know, both offenses are really bad. Pittsburgh
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: used four relief pitchers yesterday, Colorado used two, So Colorado,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I guess, slightly more rested bullpen, but they are the
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: worst of the two bullpens. Anyway. I don't trust the
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: bullpens here. So in this game the way that I
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: was kind of eyeing it, if I was gonna play
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: this game, it would be a first five under in
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: my opinion. But you have to try to gauge what's
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: gonna happen with mccaid brown for Colorado, who is making
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: his major league debut, and he is coming up straight
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: from I think either Double A or some other league,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: because I looked, I didn't see any Triple A stats
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: from this year, and I was looking at his minor
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: league stats and they're really all over the place. Like
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: this year alone, he's ruggled in like single A, had
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: like an ERA in the fives, but then his numbers
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: in double a this year are actually pretty good. And
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: his numbers on whatever that other team was are pretty
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: good where he got his cra down like into the threes.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: His whip was like fairly decent. So I actually don't
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: know what we're gonna get out of mckaid brown. He's
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: actually a little bit older than you would expect for
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: a guy making his debut. He's twenty five. I think
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: he may have been derailed a little bit by some injuries.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: He has a looming mound presence at six six. He
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: throws like an upper nineties fastball, has kind of a
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: typical arsenal though fastball, slider, curveball, and then I guess
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: change up is his least used pitch, but I guess
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: he has a fast fastball, and he also has decent
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: off speed stuff to keep guys off balance, decent movement
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: on some of the other stuff. That's what he does.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Seems like a pretty typical arsenal. Could be a guy
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: that could stick in a major league rotation, but of
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: course he is on the team where pitchers go to
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: die with Colorado. But at least he's getting to face
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: a really weak offense outside of course field in his
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: major league debut in Pittsburgh, So I actually think he
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: might do okay here, because when you have these guys
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: making their major league debut and they haven't been seen
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: before by the opposing offense, sometimes they can have a
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage there. So I think he
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: might not too bad. And of course Paul Skeens is
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: pitching for Pittsburgh. Uh, obviously, he's having a really good
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: season two point one six ERA, point nine to six whip.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: He's been even better at home one point eight one
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: ERA here it's a somewhat pitcher friendly park. This month
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: is Thera is a little bit high four point twenty nine,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: but that was because he had to start in course
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: field and then he faced Milwaukee both on the road,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: and he gave up four and runs a piece in
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: those games. He's been pretty decent. Other than that, they
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: be basically limiting his pitch counts that he doesn't go
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: over one hundred pitches, making sure he doesn't like completely
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: wreck himself pretty much, but he's in there. He's in
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: there for the rest of the season. He does have
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: a good twenty eight to five strike a walk ratue
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: of this month. Still he's pitching pretty well. Numbers against
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Colorado don't look good just because of that one game
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: at Course Field. I think that was the only time
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: he faced them at eighteen at bad they do have
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: a three thirty three batting average off and Beck hit
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: a home run off him. They have a one thousand
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: eleven ops Offen, but he did have six strikeouts two walks.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Uh So, I mean, I still think Skiens is gonna
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: pitch well in this game, and I think it's usually
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: a decent bet that Skeens is gonna pitch well more
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: often than he does not this line is really really high.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: When do you ever see Pittsburgh open at minus three
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: sixty on the money line? I mean, that is insane.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's how bad Colorado has been. But I
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: don't think you possibly justify a price like that, even
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: if it is Skiens. You're still dealing with the fact
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: that this is Pittsburgh and their bullpen's not good, their
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: offense isn't good, eighty five percent of tickets, only seventy
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. But I don't really
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: see any way to really attack the side here. I mean,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I still think Skeens should outpitch Brown. I mean, just
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: because he is Paul skeans. The money is coming in
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: on the under, even though it looks like a flipped
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: to seven juice to the over seventy two percent of
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: tickets on the over seventy nine percent of the cash
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: on the under cash percentages on the under. That is
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: the way that I would look. You could go full
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: game with it. I don't think we could really totally
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: trust the bullpens though, so probably I prefer first five innings,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: which you're gonna hear a lot from me today. This
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: isn't one that made my card, but it was close.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: I think it's just very difficult to figure out what
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get out of Brown in this game and
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: his debut, and whether or not he's good enough because
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: his minor league numbers, I'm not sure they're quite good enough,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: and he's really taking a step up to play in
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: major league, in the major League, in the major leagues,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: oh my god, in Major League the movie. But still
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: under first five innings, I think is the way to
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: look in that game. Probably would have to be under
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: a three and a half, though, which is unfortunate. Saint
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Louis at Tampa Bay. Odd situation where these two teams
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: didn't play yesterday. Usually every team plays on Saturday, but
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: they didn't, and I'm not even sure if it was
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: a rainout or anything. I think they weren't even on
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the schedule yesterday, So fairly strange. So the bullpen's arrested.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: They're both decent bullpens. I think Saint Louis act she
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: probably has a slightly better bullpen. Tampa probably has the
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: better offense out of the tomb. Looking at the starting
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup, it's a decent starting pitcher for both sides here.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Matthew Libratore for Saint Louis four point one to three
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: R one point two to nine whip is not really
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: that great though, but he's been actually a little bit
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: better on the road three point seven three era. However,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: remember the Tampa Bay plays in Steinbrenner Field, the spring
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: training stadium that is designed to be like Yankee Stadium.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Because it's the Yankee spring training stadium, it is pretty
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: hit or friendly. So that's why you have to dial
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: it back. Because I actually like the under in the
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: first five in this game too, but I think you
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: under full game actually with two rest of bullpens. But
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I think you have to dial it back a little
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: bit just because of the stadium that this is taking
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: place in, although that is factor into the number. Libratore
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: has been okay this month. Four point six seventy are
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: ten to five strike a walk ratio is not that great.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: He's not striking out a lot of guys. He did
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: face LA the Dodgers this month, which was probably his
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: worst start. I guess well, his worst start was at
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: home against Colorado. I don't know how you can really
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: explain not making it past four innings against Colorado. He
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: didn't have a great start against the Dodgers either, but
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: at least that's more explainable. But I guess you could
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: say Libratory is not in the greatest forum right now.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: But Tampa has not really seen him very much. Only
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: three of their hitters have ever seen him before. Morell
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: has the only hit a double. They're one for nine
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: off in four strikeouts, one walk to one eleven average
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: four to twenty two ohps. So Libratory does have a
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: bit of an unfamiliarity edge here. Ryan Pepio is pitching
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: for Tampa three point nine to five VR one point
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: one to nine, with pretty good numbers on the season.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Three point four to six e RA at home, so
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: he's actually been better in this stadium, even though he's
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: giving up a lot of home runs in the stadium seventeen,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: but he's still somehow keeping his ERA down in the stadium.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: He's not really in the greatest form this month either though,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: giving up four and runs over his last two starts.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: One was at the A's and which is also ridiculously
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly stadium, a Triple A stadium that they play in,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: so you can give him a pass for that. You
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: can probably give him a pass for getting knocked around
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: by the Yankees at the end of July. But his
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: most recent start at San Francisco, very pitcher friendly park.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: He didn't do well in that start either, give him
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: four and runs, so he's been a little bit dicey
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: this month with a five point zero ninety RA San
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Francisco a weak lineup two, so not a great start
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: from him there, although he had eight strikeouts there, does
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: s eleven eighteen to six strike a walk ras year
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: this month, which isn't too bad. He may be able
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: to bounce back here because actually, surprisingly Saint Louis has
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: never faced Pepio before, so the unfamiliarity edges on both
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: sides here, and I think the bullpens because they rested yesterday,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I think that factors in. So I do lean to
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: the under in this game. Totals down from nine to
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: eight and a half, basically sixty three percent of tickets
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: on the over, fifty eight percent of the cash on
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: the under. Of course you can get under nine. That's
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: what you want to do here. The nine is a
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: key number in baseball because it's what breaks the three
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to three tie. I just worry a little bit again
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: about the stadium, about the recent form of these two starters.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: It gets a little bit iffy, but I would still
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: say the under is probably the way to attack this game.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: The money is somewhat coming in on Tampa to up
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: for just one twenty two to minus one thirty five
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent to take it, sixty seven percent of
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the cash on Tampa. I mean they do have a
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: little bit of an unfamiliarity edge with Pepio there. They
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: do have the better offense at least, and the bullpens
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: are pretty comparable, so I could see the argument for
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: that both these teams not really going anywhere this year.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Neither a Collerado in Pittsburgh obviously, so these teams both
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: kind of just playing out the stretch there. But again,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: I think under is probably the way to look at
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: that game. Houston Baltimore. I'm gonna give out a play.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a play three out of the four
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: of those games in that series, one on Houston money
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: line in the first two games. So let's let's make
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: it a sweep of that series. Man, with my play today.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: But we'll say that's gonna be one of my plays. Yeah,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: excusing Mets and Braves. This game, I think there's only
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: one way to go with it. It's a tot, but
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: I think the way to go with this game is
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: actually the over looking at this game. I mean, I'm
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: not really a huge fan of either of these bullpens.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: They're both very mediocre. Actually, at this point, they've had
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: a decent amount of rest recently. Yesterday both teams did
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: get some of their bullpen arms into the game Atlanta four,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Mets three, So Atlanta was really rested up until that point.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: But now that there was some bullpen use sage yesterday
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: and the bullpen's are pretty mediocre, I think we could
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: see this game maybe start to unravel, especially if it's
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: like a domino effect like that. Tends to have been
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: more if the game is gonna go over, like you're
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers, if they don't do well, they might get
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: knocked out of the game or earlier, and then the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: bullpens have to pitch more. So that kind of is
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: what causes that to happen. So you'll see me it's
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: much more unlikely it might have a first five over
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: in a game. But this game we got David Peterson
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: pitching before and the Mets, by the way, have the
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: better offense. There's no question about that. David Peterson is
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Mets. His numbers do look good. Three
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: point one eighty rain two four whip is a little
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: bit high. He's a little bit worse on the road
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: three point four to six era. My problem with Peterson,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, well it's well documented if you watch my show.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: I just think he always puts too many guys on base,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: and he's always like kind of a regression candidate, and
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: it's just crazy how he keeps getting away with putting
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: guys on base. He does induce a lot of ground balls,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: which helps him get out of a lot of Jams.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: But I just don't think he's that good. I mean,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: this month, he hasn't really been that good. In four starts.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: His team has lost three of them. Five point oh
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: one ERA twenty six to ten strike a walk ratio
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: way too many walks, although a lot of it was
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: a five walk outing regive of six runs against Atlanta.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: But guess who he's facing today? Oh yeah, Atlanta. So
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: he did terrible against Atlanta the last time out. Maybe
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: not a good sign for Peterson. He did bounce back
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: with a dominant performance against Washington in his most recent start.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Ten strikeouts in eight innings, one run, allowed, four hits,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: one walk. Yeah, he completely dominated them. But Washington is
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: actually worse offensively at home. They're not as good as
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is. So I don't know, man, I'm not ready
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: to say that he's just completely back and form right
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: now because of the way he was pitching prior to
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: that and his numbers against the Braves, they're kind of
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: all over the place, to be honest, He's coming off
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: a bad start against him a few starts ago. Like
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: I said, they have one hundred and twenty two at
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: bats against him, a two thirty eight batting average, which
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: is definitely low, but thirty three to eighteen strike a
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He's walked a lot of the Braves' bats,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: and they have a seven eighty seven ops off him
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: because they also have seven home runs off him will
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: though four of them are Matt Olsen. But still Peterson
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: does get hit for power and he walks guys against Atlanta,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: so his numbers are not great against Atlanta. And on
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: the other side, Bryce Elder, I mean again, if you
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: watch my show, you know Bryce Elder he is basically
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: an elder even though he's only twenty six. His numbers
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: are just awful. His numbers are worse than the elders
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: in the Major League Baseball year. He's worse than Justin Verlander.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: Elder is awful. Six point two nine yards, one point
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: five to six whip terrible numbers. He's even worse at
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: home seven point four to three ERA last start out
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: to give up eight earned runs against the White Sox.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, what are you doing, man? Terrible offensive the
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: White Sox. I give out a play on White Sox
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: first five innings in that game, and that was correct,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: and then the White Sox lost the full game, although
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: they covered the run line if you went run line
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: at that one. But man Elder, he was not the
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: reason why his team won that game. He was awful
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: this month. He has a six point two to NINETYRA
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: seventeen to eight strike a walk ratio. The walk rate
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: isn't terribly high, but he's just he's getting hit, he's
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: giving up runs. He's not pitching well. His numbers against
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: the Mets are not particularly good. In sixty nine at bats,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: sixteen to six strike at walk ratio is alright, but
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: two seventy five batting average allowed eight forty nine oh ps.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: So again, I don't trust either starter here, don't really
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: trust the bullpens either. Both teams do have decent hitting,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: really Mets better than Atlanta. But I think the way
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: to look at this game is the over. The total
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: did go up from nine to nine and a half.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: We see seventy percent of tickets on the over, sixty
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, so the cash
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: is kind of disagreeing with that. If you could still
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: find a nine to go over that, obviously that would
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: be the better move, because again nine is a key
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: number because it breaks the tie. Probably the way that
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: I would look the money's coming in on the Mets
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: as well. Off For mine, it's one sixteen of minus
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: one twenty nine, eighty one percent of tickets, eighty five
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. I mean, I could see the
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: argument for that, because I do still think Peterson is
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: better than Elder I mean anything. Elders just fade material
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: the whole way. So I don't really disagree with the
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Mets side either, and the bullpens are a bit of
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: a wash for me in that game. But I still
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: think the over is actually the better way to play
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: that game, uh, especially if you can get it at
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: nine Washington at Philadelphia. Philadelphia, this is gonna be bad
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: for them. Man. They're on this playoff run here, they're
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: in first place, and Wheeler is now not gonna be
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: back this season. Man, he's having to have surgery. He
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: has some I forget what his medical diagnosis was. It's
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: something weird, man, I forget exactly what it was. But
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: very unfortunate because he's Philadelphia's ace. He's been a staple
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: of their rotation and with him out of that rotation,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: that's really really gonna hurt their chances. Man. I'm not
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: a Philadelphia fan, but it's just you know, if you
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: like baseball and you like good pitching, that definitely sucks. Washington,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: of course, is the worst of these two teams. Though
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Washington has a terrible bullpen. Phillies isn't that great, but
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen nonetheless over Washington. Philly has
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the better offense of course as well. Philly probably has
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: the better starting pitcher here too. Jake Irvin is pitching
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: for Washington, not having a good season five point three
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: e RA, one point four whip five point four to
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: nine ERA on the road, so even a little bit
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: worse on the road. This month, He's been really bad
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: nine point three to one ERA in four starts, eleven
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: to nine strikeout walk ratio, giving up five or more
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: in runs and three of the four, including six or
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: more in his last two outings, including one against Kansas City.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: A bad offense at Kansas City. That is not a
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: good sign. He's not pitching well even against bad offenses,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: and in pitcher friendly parks he's still not getting it
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: done against. Philadelphia's numbers are not good either. In one
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty three at bats. They have a lot
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: of familiarity with him. Twenty two to twelve strike a
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: walk ratio also not good, three twenty two batting average
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: allowed of nine to thirty four oh ps allowed Irvin,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, his numbers. Just everything about Irvin says, fade
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: this guy in this game, man, just yeah, bad form.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Bad numbers in the matchup against Philadelphia. What else is
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: there to say? Really bad numbers overall, even worse on
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the road. He's up against Rodyr Suarez, who, as I
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: keep saying, I don't think he's as good as his
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: numbers look, but I do still think he's better than
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Jake Irvin. Pretty significantly good numbers on the season three
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: point two five ERA, one point one to seven WHIP.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: He started the season late due to an injury, did
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: show some signs of regression. Hasn't been quite as good
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: at home either, four point two seventy RA at home
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: this past month. He has a pretty ugly or within August,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: I mean five point six eighty RA. Not good. But
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: some of that is kind of hard to explain because
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: he has a twenty one to two strike a walk
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: ratio this month, which is really good. So his command
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: is really on. He had ten strikeouts last time out
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: against Seattle and no walks. He's had no walks in
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: three of the four outings, so he actually is pitching well.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: The star where he got the most blown up was
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: at Cincinnati, which is a pretty hitter friendly park, so
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: you can kind of explain that one. It's harder to
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: explain him not doing well at home against Baltimore giving
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: up five runs in that one because Baltimore is not
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: really that good. But overall his command is still there,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: so I'm not really ready to say he's not in
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: good form right now. Well I wouldn't say he's in
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: bad form, and the Nats actually don't have a ton
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: of experience against him. Forty nine at bats eleven to
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: seven strike a walk ratio That is too many walks,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: but five of them are Josh Bell just because he
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: is a good hitter h two twenty four batting average allowed,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: six eight ohps. So Suarez does have the better matchup
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: numbers here pretty significantly. The money seems to be fading Philly,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: though they're up of minus two fifty and minus two
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: sixty five ninety three percent of tickets, only eighty seven
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. I think probably the
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: professional money kind of of the feeling that the line
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: is just too high on Philadelphia, but I do think
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: they have the edge across the board here, So I
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: still think if you're gonna play the side, you have
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: to play Philadelphia in some way, and I think maybe
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: the way to do it is to go over their
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: team total. Because the money's coming in on the over.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: It's up to nine and a half juice to the over,
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of tickets, sixty three percent of the cash
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: on the over. And instead of trying to gauge what
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Suarez is gonna do, because he might actually pitch well
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: and hold Washington down, I think what you can do
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: again is bet Phillies team total over and then you
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: get Irvin plus Washington's bullpen to give up a bunch
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: of runs, which I think is probably gonna happen. But
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: if you do that, you will need Philly to probably
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: score about six runs in the game, maybe even seven,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: So a little bit difficult to get over that number.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: But we will see Kansas City at Detro Detroit on
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the verge of a sweep here. So does that mean
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: they're gonna take Kansas City a little bit more lightly?
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean they only a series with
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: the A's up next, so they probably won't because this
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup probably still means more. Kansas City is still
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: fighting to stay alive. Detroit is still fighting for playoff positioning.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Of course, I should have mentioned the Mets are still
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: fighting to make sure they make the playoffs and Atlanta
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: is out of it. But Atlanta will still show up
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: for a series against the Mets, so for motivation from
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: the motivational standpoint there part of the handicap. Washington also
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: is out of it, but they might show up for
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: a game against Philadelphia because to another division rivalry, Philadelphia
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: needs to keep winning to make sure they make the playoffs. Obviously,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: and again same with Detroit here. But let's get into
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Detroit Kansas City here. Detroit's bullpen has fallen off a
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: little bit to the point where you've got to give
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Kansas City a bullpen edge here. Detroit used a little
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: bit more of their bullpen yesterday as well, so Kansas
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: City has a little bit of a bullpen edge. Detroit
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: definitely has an offensive edge, and they're better at home,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: so you can't overlook that. As far as the starting pitching,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: I actually think Detroit probably does have the edge there too.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: It might be time to say goodbye to Seth Lugo,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: even though I've been saying that I don't think that
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: he's as bad as the advanced analytics guys have been
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: saying that he is, but he hasn't been good recently.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Although his numbers are still pretty good in the season
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: three point seven to three ERA, one point two to
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: two WHIP, so he's still not really putting too many
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: guys on base, but he's worse on the road four
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: point two four ERA on the road. Up against Detroit,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: his numbers are actually not terrible and one hundred and
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: seventeen at bats, thirty to thirteen strike a walk ratio
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: two thirty one average allowed, seven to thirty five ops,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: still a little bit on the lower side, so he
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: actually hasn't been too bad against Detroit. But Lugo's recent
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: stats are pretty ugly, although he did bounce back with
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: a nice start against Texas last time out held him
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: to tour in runs at six and a third, so
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: that wasn't bad. But Texas is a weak offense and
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Lugo has walked way too many guys this month. He
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: has an eight point zero five RRA this month and
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: eleven to twelve strike out walk ratio, and he's allowed
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: six home runs over the last three outings alone, so
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: that's not good either. Man. He's been allowing a lot
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: of home runs. His walk number is way too high.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: So Lugo is definitely pitching worse right now. He had
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: really bad starts against Minnesota AM Washington, allowing thirteen earned
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: runs in eight innings across those two starts failed to
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: make it five innings, and the three starts prior to
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: that one against Texas. So yeah, Lugo, I will give
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: you he's not in good form right now. Maybe he's
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: starting to wear down a little bit. Again. I still
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: think he's more effective than what the advanced analytics say,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: but I'm not ready to say that he has the
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: advantage or anything like that in this game. I don't
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: think he does. Jack Flaherty is pitching for the Tigers.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: He does have the worst numbers on the season four
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: point five to one ERA, one point two seven whipmen.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Not great, but he has the advantage of the splits.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: He's actually way better at home three point four to
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: five VRRA at home. So Lugo is on the bad
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: side of his home road splits. Flarerty's on the good
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: side of his Flaherty's been a little bit better this
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: month than Lugo four point five ERA this month, twenty
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: five to six strike a walk ratio. Flarerty did have
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: two bad starts this month as well, against Minnesota and
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, allowing ten or in runs combined across
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: nine innings. I mean, that's not a good sign either,
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: But he bounced back with a nice seven inning shutout
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: against Houston last time out, nine strikeouts, one walk, so
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: he is pitching better. And he had a good start
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: against Philly to start the month and a good start
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: against Toronto at the end of last month. So it's
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: like it's almost like he's just not paying attention against
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: worse teams, although maybe that's not a good thing because
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is not a good team. Even though they
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: aren't second place here, Flarerty does have good numbers against them,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: though they're only nine for forty one off him. They
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: only have four guys who have even faced him before.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Nine to five strike a walk ratio is not great,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: but two twenty average allowed five to seventy three ops,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: so Flerting he's got the better numbers overall, better recent numbers,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: better matchup numbers, So I mean, I think Detroit ISS
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: gotta be the lean in this game, but the money's
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: coming in against them. They're up for miss one forty
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: three seventy one percent tickets, only sixty seven percent of
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, so the money is fading them.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you did want to just stick with
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Detroit having a starting pitching matchup, you could go with
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: them first five innings run line or something like that,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: just to go with Flowerty versus Lugo, and then you
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about Kansas City's bullpend maybe being
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. And the money is hitting the
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: under as well. Fifty nine percent of tickets on the over,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: but sixty one percent of the cash on the under,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: and the total dropped a little bit for eight and
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: a half to eight, So I mean, I could see
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: some arguments for that, but I do definitely worry about
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: Lugo here, So I think an under is a little
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: bit dicey, although I think the bullpens are decent enough
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: that they may be able to keep you under in
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: a full game. Andrew, what's up? Man? Who's titler? Oh?
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: The French like communists? Crazy chicks that protests topless. Yeah,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: I call them titler. That is right, Toronto Miami. He's
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of my plays, So I'm gonna skip that.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be a long video, isn't it? God,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: damn it? San Francisco or no, excuse me. Minnesota at Chicago, Man,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: this game, I mean, you got two teams that are
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: out of it. It is a divisional matchup. The teams
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: didn't use a whole lot of their bullpens yesterday. I
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: don't believe, but the bullpens are not very good bullpens. Yeah,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: the White Sox used two relief pitchers. Minnesota also used two.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: They use a lot of They use them for a
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: lot of pitches, but they use like they're better relievers.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: So the bullpens are decently intact. Minnesota has the better
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: offense just because Chicago's is so bad. But you're looking
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: at two fairly weak offenses too. Starting pitching isn't interesting
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: one with two guys that started the season on different teams.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Taj Bradley will be making his Twins' debuts.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: I guess Tampa Bay must have gotten rid of him
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: at the trade deadline. I think he's probably been in
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the minors for a bit. He's shown glimpses of having
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: pretty good stuff, but he's been kind of all over
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: the map, both literally and figuratively. This point four point
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: six one ERA, one point two eight WHIP on the
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: season not great numbers, not horrible. He's been better on
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: the road three point seven to six e RA. But
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: remember he was pitching in Steinberner Field with Tampa, so
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why his home stats are
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: really bad. So I think that was actually skewing his
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: stats a bit. So this might actually be a sneaky
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: pickup for the Twins. It might actually be good. Bradley
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: is not pitched since late July when he was still
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: on Tampa. However, hilariously, his last outing was against these
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: White Sox who he's facing today, and he only went
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: one in two thirds inning. He's allowed four earned runs,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: three walks those strikeouts, So he had a really terrible
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: outing in that one against a really bad offense, and
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: they're about to face him again. So that's not really
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: a great sign for Bradley. But that was at Steinberner
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Field as well, so I think he should do it
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: at least better. This time out. The White Sox have
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: thirteen at bats against him, Montgomery has a home run
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: off and they have a three zero eight average off
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: eight ninety six ops, two strikeouts, one walk. Of course,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: I think pretty much all of that was from that
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: most recent start. So yes, his numbers are bad against them,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: but maybe you have to dial it back a little bit.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: I'm putting too much weight into that because again, that
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: was at Seimberger Field. Maybe he'll be pumped up to
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: be pitching for a new team at least two and
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Oh's gets another shot to pitch in the majors here Chicago.
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: The White Sox is gonna have Jendris Gomez pitching who
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even know who he is. Really. He's got
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: bad numbers this year five point five three ERA, one
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: point five to five whip. Obviously, that's not good. His
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: numbers at home have been better three point five two ERA.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Some of that was with the Dodgers and the Yankees.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: I guess he was with both of them. I think
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: he was a relief pitcher with both of them. Then
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: the White Sox got him and they used him in
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: relief three times, and then they put him in the
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: starting rotation and he's actually been okay in the starting rotation.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: In two starts, he's gone five innings in each one,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: they've let him go basically ninety pitches in each one.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: He has a ten to two strike a walk ratio
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: three point six ERA, so not exactly bad. And he
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: actually put up a good start against Detroit, giving up
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: only one and run in those five innings. There was
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, one walk. Had a little bit of a
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: backslide against Atlanta, but still a pretty serviceable start, and
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: he picked up wins in both starts. Kind of ridiculous man,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: that Gomez, who I'm not even sure he's very good,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: but he's he's been around since twenty twenty three. His
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: career numbers are definitely pretty bad, but he's getting his
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: shot with the White Sox and he's actually doing pretty
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: well so far. In Minnesota has never faced him before,
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: so he might actually have an advantage against Minnesota just
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: because they haven't seen him before. So hilariously, this game,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I would say, is probably a game you want to
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: look towards an under as well. If you want to
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: avoid the bullpens because they're bad, obviously, you can do
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: that with a first five inning under if you want
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: to just go with the starting pitching here, which may
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: be the way to go here, bullpens are at least rested.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: If you did want to try the full game and
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: you got a key number there at nine, it's flipped
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: to nine juice to the under, though, So if you're
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: gonna go full game, you gotta make sure you get
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: it under nine the key number there. Eighty percent of
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on the over, even though these are
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: two teams that you would think betters would not look
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: at this and be like, oh, I want to go over.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: But maybe they're looking at the eras like all these
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: pictures stink. I don't know. And public does like to
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: bet overs more often than anything else, nine one percent
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the under. Well, they bet overs and
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: favorites nine one percent of tickets on the under though,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: So the money's coming in on the under. But yeah,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: if the public likes, if the public is going to
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: be playing totals, they're gonna be playing overs for the
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: most part. But anyway, yeah, that game, to me, I
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: think it's an under. So, like I said, there are
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of games where I like the under. Today
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to limit it to what I think are
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: just the best underplays. But again I lean under in
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Colorado Pittsburgh generally probably first five, Saint Louis, Tampa probably
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: full game. And then I also had the under lean
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: in uh what was the other one? And I'm gonna
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: give up three first five inning unders too in Minnesota
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: White Sox also lean under there. San Francisco, Milwaukee. This
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a hard game to handicap right now
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: because Milwaukee has not decided on a starting pitcher. Unlet's
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: the've announced it, you know, since I started the show
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: that that has not been announced. Milwaukee has actually flipped
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: from plus one hundred to minus one oh nine here though,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if there's some movement behind the scenes,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: like like, I don't know if there's some information back
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: there where somebody knows who they're planning on starting. Maybe
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: the total did drop a little bit from nine and
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: a half to eight and a half though, So these
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: initial line moves seen to indicate Milwaukee is going to
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: have some decent starter out there. We'll see. I mean
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: it could wind up being Logan Henderson, I think, or
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: something like that. So I don't know, we're gonna see
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: but Milwaukee, they did lose a little bit of another
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: wind streak yesterday. They had two wins in a row,
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: and they lost to San Francisco yesterday. I don't consider
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: that to be like a loss of a wind streak,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: it's gonna hang you over. I think losing a long
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: wind streak does hang you over. Potentially this case, I
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: don't think. So. Milwaukee did get kind of embarrassed seven
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: to one yesterday, so I think they'll probably want to
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: bounce back here. Milwaukee's still at least trying to make
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: sure they get the one seed, although they are well
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: on their way to doing that, so they can afford
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: to lose some games at this point too. San Francisco
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: has the better of the two bullpens, and they didn't
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: use much of it yesterday. Milwaukee didn't use too much
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: of theirs either, mostly long relief men, so the bullpen
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: scenario is pretty decent for both teams here. San Francisco
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: probably does have the starting pitching edge, but of Milwaukee. Again,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: if they're going with somebody like Henderson or Tobias Myers
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: or somebody like that, I don't know what's going on
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: with those guys that would make it a pretty decent
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: pitching matchuphere. I would think if that's the case, you
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: might want to actually start looking towards an under in
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: this game. But if they're going with a bullpen game
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: or something like that, I think maybe San Francisco might
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: be the lean in this game. I know I've been
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: leaning to San Francisco a lot recently. San Francisco is
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: out of it, but I think playing the Brewers, I
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: think is at least something that focuses them. And San
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Francisco does have Robbie Ray pitching, who's been arguably their
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: best pitcher, although I still give that to Logan Web
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: because he's been so consistent for so long. But Ray
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: is having a really good year for the Giants. Two
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: point eight five v one point one to one whip
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: a very similar home and away numbers almost exactly the same.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: This month, he's doing really well two point four five ERA,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: twenty four to five strike a walk ratio. He had
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a blip last month, but I
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: think it was kind of because he got named to
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: the All Star team and maybe that was a distraction.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: This month, He's been back pitching quite well this month,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: again with a good command numbers like I just mentioned
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: against Milwaukee's numbers are not terrible either. They're a good offense. Obviously,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has the better offense here forty three percent excuse
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: forty three at bats, thirteen to four strike a walk ratio,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: two fifty six batting average allowed in seven thirty eight ohps.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: So Ray does have pretty good numbers against Milwaukee. And again,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: we don't know who Milwaukee's gonna be pitching, so it's
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: basically the handicap's really gonna depend on who Milwaukee's starting
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: man because it could be anybody from like a really
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: good young pitcher to a bullpend game, which is like
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: pretty much garbage. So we'll see what Milwaukee decides to
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: do there. Cleveland at Texas too bad offenses. In this
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: matchup between Cleveland and Texas, Texas has the better bullpen.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: I think Cleveland probably has the somewhat better offense. Texas
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: really struggles offensively at home, but they did beat Cleveland
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: ten to nothing yesterday. They got a good start out
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: of Jack Lighter yesterday. It looks like I don't know,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: I didn't see the numbers yet, but apparently so Texas
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: is on the verge of sweep here. Texas does probably
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: have a little bit more to play for at this
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: point because I think they probably legitimately think that they're
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: not out of the race yet, and Cleveland, having to
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: contend with Detroit and their division, might kind of think
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: that they are out of it for their purposes, and
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: they did sell off of the trade deadline. As far
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: as the bullpen usage is concerned, Cleveland used only one guy.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: They used Allard or a Lard. I don't know he
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: pronounced his name. He's a guy that's been in and
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: out of the rotation. So they really have very light
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage recently. All of their best relievers that they
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: have on their roster are available for today, so their
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: bullpen is in good shape. Texas bullpen, I think also
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: is Yeah, they used two relievers very light usage yesterday
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: as well, so and they're the better bullpen. So bullpend
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: usually just pretty good on both sides. So it's starting
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: to look like an under in this game. The total
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: is also really low. Davin Williams is pitching for Cleveland.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good recently this season. Three point two
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: to four era is pretty good, one point three whip
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: definitely too high, but he's been fairly good recently. He's
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: only slightly worse on the road, three point three to
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: one in ERA. This month, he has a one point
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: nine to six e R in four starts. Cleveland has
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: won three of the four and twenty three to eight
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, so he is pitching well this month.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: And then included starts against the Mets in Arizona, both
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: on the road, where he only gave up one earned
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: run combined across those two starts against decent offenses on
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: the road, so that's a pretty decent sign. His one
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: really bad start was against Miami, and I probably should
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: have gone with Miami in that game because I didn't
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: give out a play in the game at all, because
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: I told you I was thinking about the under in
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: that game. But I told you my hesitancy was because
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Williams took a not a perfect game, yeah, a no
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: hitter because he walked for guys. He took a no
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: hitter into the last out against the Mets, so he
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: had one out to go to complete a no hitter
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: against the Mets, and he gave up a single or
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: I guess no, you give up a home run. Excuse me?
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: It was one hit, a home run my mistake. Yeah,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: you give up a home run when he had one
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: out left to get. I mean, that's just brutal. So,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: like I said, when a guy does that and they're
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: that close to making the history of books. And he
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: threw one hundred and twenty six pitches in that game, man,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: So that was so many pitches for Williams. That was
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: the most that he's thrown, I assume in his entire career.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: I was twenty something more pitches than he'd thrown in
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: any other start this year. I think. You know, he
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: threw one hundred and nine and one against the Dodgers,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: so seventeen more pitches than any of that than in
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: any other outing. So you knew that he was probably
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be hung over in the next game. So that's
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: how you can explain why his start against Miami was bad.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: But then all the rest of his starts, if you
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: go all the way back to early July, where he
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: gave it four and runs against the Cubs, which you
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: can forgive him for that too. He's allowed foreign runs
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: only that one other time against Miami over that entire span.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Didn't do it at all in the entire month of
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: June either, so Williams is pitching pretty well right now.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: As numbers against Texas are actually not good, but it's
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: a small seventeen at bat sample size, but four walks,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: excuse me, four strikeouts, three walks not a good ratio
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: two ninety four batting average allowed nine to eighty eight ops.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: He's allowed one home run to tay As, so not
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: very good for Williams. Surprisingly, his numbers are not good
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: against Texas. That gives me a little bit of hesitation,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: but I think his recent form actually matters more than
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: a small sample size against Texas. Texas is going with
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: Meryl Kelly, who they picked up at the trade deadline,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: So Cleveland were actually sellers at the trade deadline and
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: the Rangers are actually buyers because this is a big
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: pickup for them to bolster their starting rotation. Merril Kelly
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: three point three five r this year, one point zero
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: six whip good numbers. He's Doe a little bit worse
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: at home three point six five, and that was mostly
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: because he was with Arizona and their stadium is a
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: very hitter friendly ballpark. Although he did have one bad
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: start at home with Texas, his only bad start since
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: they got him was against Philadelphia at home, but maybe
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: you can forgive him for that. Philadelphia is a good lineup.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: His other three starts with them, he's got five to
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: two thirds in each one along tour in runs or
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: less in each one. He does have an eighteen to
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: five strike a walk ratio. She's eighteen to six since
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: they got since Texas acquired him four point zero ninety
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: ran with them, has a lot five home runs in
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: the last three starts, so that's a little bit of
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: a concern. Against Cleveland, he has really good numbers, though
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: only three of their hitters have seen him in twenty
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: five at bats where I think only have two hits,
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: one extra race hit, a double from Jones, eight strikeouts,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: one walk which was also Jones, and eighty batting average
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: of two thirty five ops. So Kelly is actually unfamiliar
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: to Cleveland, and the guys that have seen him, he's
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: pretty much dominated them. So I do think you have
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: to give Kelly the edge. I mean, he has the
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: way better matchup numbers. So the money is actually coming
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: in completely against Texas, which is insane. Eighty percent of
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: tickets only fifty five percent of the cash on Texas,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: so they're a public home favored and they've dropped for
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty minus one seventeen, so very strong market
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: read coming in against Texas here, which seems very very
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: odd to me. Man, So I don't know what's going
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: on with that line there, because I would lean to Texas.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: I think they have the pitching edge really pretty much
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: across the board in the game, So that seems a
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: little bit weird to me. Although, like I said, I
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: think the under might be worth a look as well,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: because you have capable bullpens that are pretty rested here
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Texas good bullpen and two starting pitchers that are in
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: pretty good recent form. Total drop from eight to seven
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: and a half, you might be able to Yeah, you
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: could probably still get the under seven and a half
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: pretty easily here because it's juice to the over. Sixty
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: two percent of tickets on the over ninety one percent
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over, so the money's coming
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: in in the over. But again I don't really understand that.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go, and we're not gonna go. It's
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: not gonna be a play for me, But I think
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: an under might be the way to look in that game.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: And Texas, you know, I worry about the Texas slight
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: lean that I have. I think the under is probably
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: the preferred approach because the Texas lean looks like the
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: market is completely disagreeing with it. Cubs Anaheim. I'll give
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: out a play on that game as well, which is
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: maybe not what you would think. Cincinnati at Arizona. Arizona's
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: actually on the verge of sweeping Cincinnati here. They won
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: ten to one yesterday. There's been some weirdness in this
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: series where it looked like Ryan Nelson was using pine tar.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Not last night, but the night before that. I think
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: he had a weird spot on his visor man, and
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: people are like, guys can't get away with that now?
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Well yeah, well Ronelle Blanco for the Astros, he did
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: it last year and where's he now. He's nowhere to
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: be found. But he was doing that last year and
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: then when they made him stop, he completely just fell
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: off and hasn't been seen since pretty much. So, I mean,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: guys are still doing it, and sometimes it takes a
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: while to get caught. And you know, I've been saying
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: on the show for a long time that Ryan Nelson,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: if you look at his career stats, the fact that
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: he would just somehow become really really good at the
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: age of twenty seven for no apparent reason, pitching in
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: a hit or friendly ballpark where everybody else on his
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: team has actually become worse. Like Zach gall and Brandon Fott.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Those guys have better career numbers and they've all gotten
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: worse this year. So it's obviously not the pitching coaching.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: So it's like, what can explain it? So maybe my
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: gut instinct is right again, man, And maybe there is
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: something going on there. Maybe Ryan Nelson is cheating, maybe
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: he's using the pine tar. I don't know. We'll see.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: But Arizona, they do a Milwaukee up next, that is
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: possibly a look ahead Cincinnati I think still is in
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: the playoff hunt technically, so they might still have a
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of more motivation here man, because they want
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: to avoid the sweep. They have a little bit more
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: to play for here with Arizona basically just playing out
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: the stretch at this point, and they do have that
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: big series against Milwaukee up next. A bullpen, Cincinnati does
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen, but it's the usage scenario is
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: not necessarily that good. They kind saved their better arms
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: yesterday by using a couple of longer relief men yesterday,
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: so probably you give the edge to Cincinnati with the bullpen,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: even though Arizonas is more rested and they somewhat did
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: the same thing or that they did use Beaks. My guy,
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: who if you if you watched my show, I've told
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: the story. But when I did karaoke with beaks parents
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: the night of his major league debut, which was for
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, where I was actually in attendance of
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: that game, and he didn't pitch, well, I never met Beaks,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: but I did karaoke with his parents. Beaks. Yeah, so
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: he's like the only decent reliever that Arizona did use yesterday,
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: and Arizona's bullpen is still worse, so Cincinnati gets the
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: bullpen advantage. Arizona does have the better hitting, although Cincinnati
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: is a decent offense too, and then starting pitching got
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: to try to figure it out. Man Brady Singer is
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Reds. First season with the Reds hasn't
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: been great. Four point one to eighty one point three
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: whip is definitely too high. He's been pretty bad on
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: the road. Surprisingly, he's actually pitching well at home, even
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: though it's a hit her friendly ballpark. His road numbers
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: have been bad five point five to five year on
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: the road. This month he's been quite good, though he's
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: got three wins in his four starts. His only bad
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: start was on the road against Pittsburgh. Go figure that.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you can figure that out. Probably
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: he just wasn't focused at all. Two point eighty ra
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: this month though, twenty two to six strike a walk
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: ratio every start besides the Pittsburgh start, even if you
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: include his last start in July. He's allowed one or
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: fewer ear run in all of those sets, four out
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: of his last five starts, including a shutout for six
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: innings against Philadelphia which wasn't home. But Singer is in
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: pretty good form right now against Arizona. Those numbers are
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: not great, and forty one at bats ten three strike
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is fine, but two ninety three batting
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: average allowed pretty high, although he hasn't allowed a lot
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: of power seven thirty one ops. So I still think
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Singer might actually come out to do okay here, but
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: I do worry about his road numbers. He's going up
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: against Zach Gallon, who, like I said, his season basically
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: has been a lost season, and he's been worse than
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: you would ever expect this season five point two to
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: eighty RA, one point three to three WHIP. He's definitely
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: been better than that during his career. He's been a
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home five point five RA at home.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: So both pitchers on the wrong side of their splits,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: but they're both pitching okay. Recently, Gallon three point five
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: two ERA this month hasn't allowed more than three and
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: runs in any of his starts. He's picked up two
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: wins out of the four starts, and his team has
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: won three of the four. Thirteen to five strike a
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not that great, mostly because the strikeout
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: rate is actually really low, so his strikeout rate has
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: become low, so he's not really a fooling hitters at
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: this point. His numbers against Cincinnati are good, though they're
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: only eight for sixty three off him sixteen strike out,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: seven walks is a little bit too many walks, but
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: refuse too many walks, I should say one twenty seven
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: average allowed four to sixty eight ops allowed, So his
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: numbers against Cincinnati are actually pretty good. So I could
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: see potentially both starting pitchers actually doing well in this game,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: so I could definitely see an RG him for a
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: first five inning under. I probably would not want to
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: do it a full game, even though the bullpen's arrested.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: They're not great bullpens and Arizona's is a bad bullpen.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Sixty five percent tickets, seventy percent of the cash on
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: the under money seems to be coming in the under,
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: and it's also coming in on the Arizona side, which
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, the starting pitching matchup does look like at
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: least the matchup numbers are in favorite Gallon here. If
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: I was gonna go Arizona, I would probably limit it
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: to the first five because I just don't trust their bullpen,
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: and Cincinnati they do still have motivation here in my opinion,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: so that worries me a little bit about the Arizona side.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Although the market read is on Arizona with sixty one
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only fifty two percent of the cash
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati, so the public is on Cincinnati. They're a
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: dreaded public road underdog here, which you usually never want
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: to look at a public road underdog. Arizona's up for
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty to minus one twenty eight on the
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: money line. So excuse me, that's that game Dodgers in
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: San Diego. This is crazy man san Diego on the
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: vergeon of potentially getting a revenge sweet pair after they
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: got swept at the Dodgers last weekend. They're looking to
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: sweep the Dodgers at home. San Diego is much better
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: at home. They actually have just overtaken first place again
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: in the NLS from the Dodgers because the Dodgers have
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: been playing some pretty bad baseball over the last month. Man. Surprisingly,
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Nestor Cortes pitched really well. Yes, and one thing I
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: forgot about which this article is mentioned here, is that
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Cortes did actually if you remember, he was on the
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: Yankees last year, and I think he was the one
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: that came in in relief, and he's the one that
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: gave up the home run to Freddie Freeman that basically
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: ruined the Yankees' chances in the World Series. If you
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: remember that, I gave out the Yankees in that game,
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: by the way, on my show, and the Yankees had
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: the game won basically an extra innings, but as a
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Yankee hater, I was not too sad with the result.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: But Cortes, because he's a lefty they brought him into
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: face Freeman, I'm pretty sure, and Freeman hit the home
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: run off him, the famous Freeman home run, which I
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: don't think that was in the clinching game, but I
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: think it was the penultimate game of the World Series
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: there that basically pretty much sent the Yankees into a
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: spiral and just ended it for them, which I think
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: they lost the next game and that then it was over.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Cortes, I forgot about that, so he did
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of extra motivation to get back
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: at the Dodgers for that, and he pitched well better
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: than anybody I think probably expected yesterday. So somehow the
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: Padres are able to get the win not having the
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edg yesterday with Cortes up against Klasnow not
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: what I expected. Although I do think San Diego has
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. I mean, I know they do, uh
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: bullpen you sag Yestinay not too strong on either side,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: and San Diego's bullpen is the most stacked bullpen in baseball.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: So even when they have a little bit of usage,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: I mean that's kind of how they get managed. They
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: use a few of their relievers every game. Dodgers only
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: used two, including Robleski, was a long relief men so
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: man so like all their best relievers are available here.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: But Dodgers' bullpen is still the worst of the two bullpens.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Dodgers do have the better offense, but this starting pitching matchup,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, on the surface, this looks like an under
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: like almost for certain, with a total very low seven
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: and a half. We got a pitcher from the park.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: We got two guys on the hill on both sides.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: These guys have been really good this year. Yoshinobu Yama
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Moto pitching for the Dodgers here. We know he's been
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: really good this year. Two point ninety RA, one point
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: oh eight whip. He's been pretty much good since the
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Dodgers brought him over from Japan before the start of
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: last year. I believe he's been even better on the
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: road two point four to two RA on the road
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: this month, he's been a little bit shaky four point
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: six seven e RA eighteen to seven string a walk
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: ratio that it was almost entirely because he had a
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: bad start at Anaheim, where he inexplicably had five walks
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: and give up six earned runs. Don't know what that
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: was about. Anaheim has just had the Dodgers number for
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. They just really stepped it up in the
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: freeway rivalry there. And then Yamamoto did okay against Colorado
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: last time. I would give up three on runs, but
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: that was a course field, so I think, I mean,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: it was still a pretty good start. You can kind
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: of give him a pass for that. Really, his only
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: bad start over the past couple months was that one
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim. He's allowed three or fewer in runs in
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: every other start going all the way back into mid June,
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: so I'm not ready to say that he's actually in
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: bad form, but his numbers against the Padres are actually
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: shockingly bad. Given them the Padres, I mean, I know
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: they have a lot of offensive talent on their team,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: but it hasn't really coalesced this season. They're not one
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: of the better offenses in baseball. Numbers wise, Yamamoto has
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: fifty eight at bats against some ten strikeouts, four walks.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: That's fine, but three seventy nine batting average allowed, one
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: thousand and ninety two oh ps, three on runs allowed
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: to them, two for Machado. So Yamamoto has actually struggled
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: against the Padres. So maybe that'll happen again here, and
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: he's up against Nick Pavetta, who is also having a
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: really good season two point eight one ERA and a
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: sub one WHIP. One of the rare pitchers who's pitched
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: almost the entire season and has kept his whip under one.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: To do that as a starting pitcher all season, very
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: difficult to do. Point nine to four whip for Paveta.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: He pitches a very pitcher friendly park, but he is
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: really good there two point three to five RA. At home,
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: he's been good this month with a twenty three to
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk racio two point eight one ERA.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: His one bad start this month came at home against
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, when we know the Red Sox can
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: hit a little bit. Red Sox did have Pavetta until
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: this season, so Red Sox kind of know his tendencies.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: At least, he's been really good. Other than that start.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: He's allowed two or fewer on runs in every other
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: start going all the way back into late June, so
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Pavett is definitely a good form. However, the Dodgers have
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: good bounting numbers against him in one hundred and twenty
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: eight at bats, twenty seven to ten strike a walk,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: Racier six homers off him, with Conforto in Otani each
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: with two two eighty nine batting average allowed in eight
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: sixty four ops. So both starting pitchers, as good as
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: they've both been this year, they both have really bad
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers. So I actually think this could be an
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: over I think this might be a game of the
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: public actually knows that this is a starting pitching duel,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: or it looks like that on the surface, but I
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: actually think the over might be the better way to
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: go with this game. Even though I know the San
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: Diego is a good bullpen, the Dodgers' bullpen is shaky.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Fifty five percent of tickets on the under, percent the
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: cash on the over, and we know there is offensive
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: talent here, but the public is slightly on the under
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: and the money's actually coming in the coming in on
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: the over, flipping it to eight juice to the over.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: So I think it could be a sneaky overplay here.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Man might be the way to go. It might be
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: one of those games where you actually could go over
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: first five innings to get it done that way too,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: if you want to avoid San Diego's bullpen actually being good.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: As far as the side, San Diego flipped from plus
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: one hundred to minus one oh six, fifty percent tickets
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash coming in on the Dodgers.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's really difficult to gauge the side here, man,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: because looking at both starting pitching matchup members, they both
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: have bad numbers, so it's like which one of them
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: is gonna come through here? I actually don't really know.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe you still lean to San Diego on
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: the side full game, because if you think the starting
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is basic a bit of a wash here,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: san Diego does have the better bullpen, so I think
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: full game. Maybe San Diego the side does make sense,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: and they actually complete the sweep beer and get the
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: sweep revenge a Seattle. I'm gonna give out a play
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: and then Red Sox Yankees, of course they do get
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: the ESPN Sunday Night game here Red Sox looking for
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: a four games sweepier. The Red Sox have won eight
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: games in a row against the Yankees. The only game
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: they lost to the Yanks is the first game of
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: the season, and I think the only one series left
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees after this. Red Sox with a twelve
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: one win yesterday but I do think that's gonna mean
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: that the Yankees are gonna come out in an embarrassed
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: mood here, and knowing that they're on public, knowing that
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: they're on national TV, I'm probably expecting the Yankees to
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: play better here. The Red Sox do have the better bullpen, though,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees have the better offense. Both teams can hit.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox not a lot of bullpen used to yesterday,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: and Chapman did get the rest yesterday, so he's probably
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: available again today if they want him. He's been ridiculously
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: good for how old he is, and wasn't as good
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: when he was on the Yankees. Yankees actually used Paul
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Blackburning relief. I didn't even know they had him, So
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: I think part of the reason why the Yankees wound
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: up getting blown up late in that game is because
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: they used Blackburn the game was basically over, They're like, yeah,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: fuck it, let's just have him get wrecked. So the
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Yankees better relievers are actually available in this one, although
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: better maybe is relative because their bullpen has definitely struggled
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: this year, but the bullpen rest scenario is fairly good
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: for actually both teams in this game, so I think
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox have a little bit of a bullpen
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: edge here. Yankees have the hitting edge, and they probably
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: have the starting pitching edge. But Dustin May is pitching
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: for the Red Sox and he's pretty difficult to figure
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: out right now. They traded for him right before the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: trade deadline, trying to bolster the starting rotation. I didn't
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: like the move. May really hasn't been good since. I
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: think he had Tommy John surgery and he missed all
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: of last year I believe, so he didn't pitch against
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: the Yankees in the World Series. I don't believe, but
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been good since then this season four point
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: five nine e RA, one point three to six whip.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess it could be worse, but of
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: course those numbers are not good. He's been particularly bad
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: on the road. A six point two to eighty R
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: on the road. That's not good. But since the Red
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: Sox got him. He had a shaky out in his
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: first outing against Kansas City. Oh he still did limit
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: them to three earned runs, although it was in three
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings. Did have four strikeouts one walk,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: But other than that, he's actually been pretty good so far.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: For the Red Sox. He's gone six innings and his
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: other two starts along two or fewer earned runs. In
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: both of those. He has a seventeen to four strike
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio two point eight to seventy RA with them,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: and his one road start was a six inning shutout
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: against Houston's That was actually his best start so May. Interestingly,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: he's actually been pretty good with the Red Sox. I
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: can't really explain it. I don't really expect it to continue, though,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: but his numbers against the Yankees are actually pretty good,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: and they haven't really seen much of him. The Yankees
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: only a five hitters who have seen him before, and
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: they're only four for thirty two often, although so every
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: hit is an extra base hit, including a Grisham home run,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: but he's one for seventeen with that home run in
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: five walks. Uh May has six walks total against them,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: five or Grisham, and he's got thirteen k's against them
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: in nine of them are Grisham, so most of the
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: Yankees' experience against him has been Grisham. May's held him
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: to a one to twenty five average overall in five
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: to seventy six ops. So May does have good numbers
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees. He does have a bit of an
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity edge, at least because some of these hitters haven't
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: seen him before going up against Carlos Redone for the Yankees. Generally, yes,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: he is definitely the better of these two pitchers, having
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: a good season three point two four ERA, one point
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: seven whip. He's been good at home two point eight
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: four ERA at home. He's starting to pitch better again
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: after he definitely had a bit of a lapse. Wasn't
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: pitching well for basically the better part of a month.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe it was a little bit of a
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: distraction around the All Star Game. Two this month, he's
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: been better again, sort of three point five to seventy,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: but his walk rate has still been way too high
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: this month, even though Yankees have won his last three starts.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: He's won his last two, but twenty two to thirteen
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio multiple walks in every outing this month.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: That is a little bit concerning. Although he's dropped the
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: walk rate to to a piece in his last two
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: outings but and went more innings in those starts, but
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: his walk rate is still definitely a bit of a concern.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have definitely seen a bunch of them, but
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: they haven't done that well against him. In eighty five
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: at bats, nineteen strikeouts, nine walks, two twenty four or
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: average is very low, though they have a seven to
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: ten ops, which is not too low because of the
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: nine walks plus three ono runs against him. Still, I mean,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: I think May is the less trustworthy of the pictures.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: I do think the Yankees are probably the right side
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: in this game either, Rup from his one fifty five
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: to Might his one sixty three, so they are a
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: fairly heavy favorite here. But usually you're paying attacks on
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, even if it is against the Red Sox.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: If it's not like an elite Red Sox pitcher here,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: you're pretty much paying attacks if you want the Yankees.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: Sixty three percent ticket seventy six percent of the cash
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: coming in the Yankees though, so this time the money
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: is coming in on them, and it looks like the
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: under might be getting a little bit of play with
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: eighty five percent of tickets on the over but sixty
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the over, so it
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: looks like the cash disparity is on the under. The
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: toll is just kind of sitting at eight and a half.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna get a nine on that.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: If you wanted to go under, I could see the
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: argument for it. With both starting pitchers with pretty good
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers, it could happen. The public is only gonna
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: come out and playing over, especially after the Red Sox
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: put up twelve runs yesterday. They're gonna think that the
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: two to one game or whatever it was there won nothing.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: I mean the day before that, I think it was
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: one nothing. Uh, it is gonna be a little bit
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: of a blip probably, so the public is gonna play
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: an over. I mean Sunday night, it's gonna this is
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be the game that gets the most betting action.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: So it is a game where you probably more often
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: than not want to look to fade the public sentiment
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: in this game. The public sentiment again is gonna be
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: the over. So I could see it going under. But again,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen is a little bit of a concern,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: but at least they're rested. I could see the argument
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: for a full game. If you want to go first
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: five inning under, even though I lost doing that yesterday,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: you could do that, and that's that is it. Man
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: and we don't have any NFL preseason, so we're gonna
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: go best bets and then we'll get out of here.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: Hopefully it won't take too long. Here will be a
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: more a bit over an hour already, so we'll see.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go about an hour fifteen here. Probably let's
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: get to the bets man first one up as a side,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: and I'm actually gonna go with the Baltimore Orioles here
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: to avoid the sweep minus one thirty four, And I
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: know that price is kind of crazy. It's dropped a
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: little bit for minus one forty to now minus one
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: thirty two, I guess, but it looks like Baltimore is
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: getting the money. Fifty nine percent ticket, seventy eight percent
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: of the cash can be in on Baltimore. And I
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: know a lot of times you do not want to
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: go Baltimore a full game here. I understand that if
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: you want to go first five innings, you could do
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: that as well. But I think they're gonna have a
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: little bit of motivation because they want to avoid the
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: sweep here. Houston is completely dominated in the messy Houston
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: basically already now has revenge on Baltimore for not having
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: a good series against Baltimore. The series before that, Houston
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: has started exploding for runs again after their offense was
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: terrible recently. That was big. Unfortunately, they don't have a
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: bigger series up next, so that they do have tomorrow
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: off and have to travel back home, so they might
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: be maybe even looking ahead towards that, because these getaway
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: days get kind of weird, man, Like when you're on
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: the vergin of sweep and you have an early game
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: and you're already like looking to get out of dodge.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: You know you've already won the series looking to get
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: out of there. If they had a bigger series up next,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: this would be even stronger of a play. But I
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: still actually like it, man, So we're gonna go Baltimore
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: here and again. It looks pretty odd to see Baltimore
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: being a favorite like this. And now the public where
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: I was on Houston in the first two games in
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: this series because they were playing like ass coming into
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: this series. I thought it was a great spot to
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: play Houston in game one, and then I liked the
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: matchup in game two. I don't like the match up here.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: This is the spot where I think the public is
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: just no longer gonna want have anything to do with
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: Baltimore because Houston's dominated the series. But I think now
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: this is the spot where you actually do play Baltimore
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: and Baltimore. I know that it's the heaviest price you
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: have to pay on Baltimore, and I was saying throughout
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: the series, Holy crap, you get Houston as an underdog
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: and Houston is the better team. Yes, they are. Houston
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: has the better offense and the better bullpen. But the
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: bullpen situation isn't too bad for Baltimore here. Besides a
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: long relief man yesterday, they only use two relievers for
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: single digit pitch counts, so their bullpen is in decent
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: shape here. Even though they're not a good bullpen. Houston's
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: bullpen is better, but their usage over the last few
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: days has been a lot more so, Houston has fewer
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: relievers that they can actually use here. They really only
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: have two who aren't on the injured list right now
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: that they didn't use yesterday, So I think that kind
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: of evens out Houston's bullpen advantage. That plus the motivational
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: aspect of the situational aspect of this, we're going Baltimore
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: full game. And again, to me, even though yet it
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: looks like maybe there's value perceived value on Houston being
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: the better team being an underdog on the road like this.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: But there's a reason why they're the biggest underdog of
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: the series in this particular game, and that's because I
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: don't think the starting pitching matchup is very good either
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: or the situation. So I think that's the reason why
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: I think the public is gonna look at and think,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: how could I possibly play? Baltimore is a big favorite
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: here against Houston, who's obviously the better team. Right it
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: looks way too easy to take Houston in this game,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: but I don't think so. Spencer Arraghetty is pitching for Houston.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: I like him. I think he does have a high
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: he does have high upside. He does have talent, but
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: hasn't done it this year. He came back from injury
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: not too long ago, and he struggled this season so far.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: Six point nine four ERA one point six to three
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: with that's not good. He's been absolutely abysmal on the
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: road ten point nine to five year on the roads.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: That's really really bad. So we have the home road
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: splits working against him here. He's allowed five or more
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: in runs exactly five in runs, I should say, in
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: three out of his five outings against Minnesota, Miami and
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: Detroit' so really only one good team out of those three.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: This month, he has a seven point niney R in
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: three starts thirteen to end strike a walk ratio, So
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: he's not getting it done. He's walking way too many guys, yeah,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: and giving up way too many runs as well, and
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: given up too many hits as well for the most part,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: So he is not doing well man. Baltimore, they haven't
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: seen much of him, I know, so he has an
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity edge. At least they're three for twelve off him,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts in no walks, two fifty batting average seven
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: to fifty oh ps, So I get it, Argett. He
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: does at least have a little bit of an unfamiliarity
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: edge there. But he is really really in bad form
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: right now, man, So I think recent form matters, and
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: he is. He does not have it. And Trevor Rodgers
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: pitching for Baltimore, he does. I mean, he's been shockingly
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: good for Baltimore this year, especially like what's gonna pump
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: him up? Playing for Baltimore when they're not going anywhere
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: this year, but I think it's the fact that he
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: just gets to pitch again. He's been really pumped about it,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: and he was a guy coming into playing for Baltimore.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: He started pitching for Baltimore later this year. So both
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: of these pitchers, by the way, are not gonna be
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: worn down because they haven't pitched that much this season. Rogers,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: though he didn't have good numbers at Triple A, didn't
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: have good numbers back when he was on Miami, so
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I didn't expect anything out of him, and
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: he's been really good one point four to one ERA
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: point eight whips and even better at home with a
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: point six three ERA. Of course it's like basically unsustainable,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: but he's allowed more than touring runs once this entire stretch.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: With Baltimore going back, he's actually been in the rotation
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: since late May now, and that start was at Tampa
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: Bay at steinburn Or Field, which is a weird stadium
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: to pitch in. He's actually been even better recently. His
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: team has won five of his last six outings, actually
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: eight of his last ten all season. Actually they won
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: what is that nine of twelve this month, three out
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: of four he's allowed one on and run apiece in
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: every outing. Again, he's allowed no more than touring runs
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: going all the way back to that start in June
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: against Tampa. This month one point two nine ERA, twenty
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: seven to three strike a walk ratio, so he's keeping
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: guys off the base pass His command has been excellent.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: This month included starts on the road against the Cubs, Philadelphia,
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: and Boston, so he was facing three pretty good offenses
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: all on the road there and did well in every
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: single one of those starts. Win at least six innings
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: in every start this month. I mean that's just wild. Man.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: He's pitching really well right now. His numbers against Houston,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: I get it, they're not really as good as Arragetty's
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: in the matchup, but still a small sample size twenty
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: three at bats five to one strike a walker race,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: you have two sixty one average and the ops is
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: a little high at eight thirteen because he has a
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: lot of three doubles and then a home run to Walker.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: But Rogers, I mean he's in good He's in such
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: a good form right now. Man. Houston hasn't seen him
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: this year, so they have not seen the current form
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: of Rogers. So I think that might give him a
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: little bit of an extra edge as well. So we
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: are gonna go with Baltimore in this game here on
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: the money line, man, that's that's the play in that one.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a price, but I think
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: there's a reason for that. It looks very misleading. So
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: we will do that, and then all the rest of
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: my players are first five inning unders. That's the name
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: of the game today. First one up is Toronto, Miami.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: You do have to pay a bit more to get
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: this under four if you want to go under three
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: and a half. I guess you could, or you could
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: go full game here. But I worry a little bit
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: because I don't like Miami's bullpen, and there's been bullpen
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: usage here. So I was like, I got to try
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: to find first five under somewhere. Pan up to mine
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: is one twenty five for the under four. I know
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: it's a bit of a price. It would really suck
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: to lose this one at this price. I know we're
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: paying a little bit more for some of these favorites here.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: If you can see here Toronto, the only reliever they
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: didn't use yesterday that they have on the roster. I
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: guess right now is Yariel Rodriguez is more of a
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: long relief type of guy. So Toronto's bullpend even though
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: they're the better bullpen, they're not in good shape, and
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: neither is Miami. Miami only is two that they didn't
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: use yesterday, and one of them is a long relief
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: guy too in Baozo. So the bullpen situation's bad. So
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: that's why I really want to avoid it. But I
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: really like the starting pitching matchup here. Toronto does have
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: the better offense if you're looking to handicap this game,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: Miami mediocre slash well, I wouldn't say bad, but mediocre offense.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: But this is all about the starting pitching matchup of course,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: it's the first five under. We got Kevin Gussman pitching
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: for the Blue Jays. He's got good numbers three point
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: seven to eighty RA, one point zero six WHIP. He's
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: been a pretty consistent picture from them. He's actually better
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: on the road three point four to nine R on
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: the road, and he's in pretty good form three point
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: sixty RA this month with a twenty to five strike
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, so he's doing well this month. He
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: had one good start in there, against a Cub lineup
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: that's pretty difficult to face. At the end of last month,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: he did well against the Yankees and the Tigers, so
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: he's doing pretty well against pretty good lineups as well.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: Had one weird start where you give it five runs
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City, but that was at home and he
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: still had a five nothing strike a walk ratio there,
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: so I think he got a little bit unlucky along
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: two of them runs there. So overall, he is in
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: good form. He's got his command right now. In Miami
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: basically has never seen him before. Only Weimer Whimer the
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Wymar Republic has seen him before, and he is one
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: for two of a double on a walk or one
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: for one, excuse me with a double on a walk.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: But Goussman basically is completely unfamiliar to Miami. So even
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: though Gousman has been around for a while, there's footage
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: on him, Miami still has not faced him in a
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: real game environment, so they might struggle against Gaussman. He's
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: in good form. He's going to go up against Yuri Perez,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: who is a really talented young pitcher as well. He
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: already had Tommy John surgery and missed the season. Even
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: though he's only twenty two. He's starting to pitch really
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: well again. He was really good before the surgery as well,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: but he's seemingly coming back to his old self. Man
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: three point four to eighty R and one point oh
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: one whip this year really good. He's in really good
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: at home two point eighty R at homes we have
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: the home road splits are in his favor. I know
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: this month he's been a little bit worse. Twenty to
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: nine strike a walk ratio is definitely too many walks.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: He's suffering from a little bit of wildness again, four
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: point three to five e RA. I get it. Not great.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: The defense really kind of like destroyed his start last
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: time out against the Cardinals. He all in the one
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: earned run, but a couple of unurn runs scored. He
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: couldn't get out of whatever inning he was in, couldn't
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: make it five innings there. So yeah, I know his
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: last three starts have been if he going five and
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: a third or fewer in each of them. He did
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: allow niner and runs across the previous two against Cleveland
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta, which I know are not good teams. But
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: the strikeout number is still there for the most part.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: So I mean, I think he might come back into
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: for him at some point, and maybe it'll be here
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: because he does pitch better at home, even though and
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: two of the like those two worst starts were both
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: on the road, so the one last time out was
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: at home against Saint Louis and he did walk to
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: many guys with the field and definitely hurt him. But
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: Toronto really has bad numbers against him. They've only seen
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: him fourteen at Batsworth. Only bo Bashett has a hit
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: off him. They're one for fourteen with no extra vase hits,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts and no walks, so he's dominated them seventy
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: one average one forty three oh ps. I know it's
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: a very small sample size, but that does also mean
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: they're not really familiar with him. And he's not pitched
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: against him this year, so Toronto hasn't seen him in
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: like two years because he missed last season, so there's
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: no recent familiarity there either. So there's a lot of
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity with both pitchers here. And as far as the market,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: I think the market is agreeing with this one. I
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: think it was agree with all four of these, but
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: let's see at least on the full game. We see
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of tickets on the over in this game,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: but eighty six percent of the cash on the under,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: and the totals drop from eight to seven and a
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: half here juice to the under. So it's going through
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: that key number seven and a half almost towards the
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: key number seven really, so the money's definitely coming in
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: on the under here. Again, if you can find find
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: whatever the best number is that you can, I mean,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: you do at least get the better of the seven.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: I guess if you go full game on this, you
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: could probably still get the under seven and a half.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: But I don't like the bullpens inn aio at all,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: which is why it was like, I have to find
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: an under in the first five. You could do under
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: three and a half in the first five and get
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: a better price on it, and then if it loses,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: you'll lose less money at least if you do it
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: that way. Next up, I told you a lot of
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: first five unders here, and we're paying a price for
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: every single one of these plays today, man, so hey,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: big spender play these unders. So yeah, this is a
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: first five under Cubs Anaheim. You can get this one
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: at five and a half a minus one eighteen, and
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: I guess if you find an under five at a
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: better price, you could do that too. I mean it's
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: not that much different, but the minus one eighteen I
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: think is fine. I mean, each run does matter more
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit in the first five innings, so it
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: kind of makes sense to maybe even pay about a
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty for a half run, even in some cases,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: even though there aren't really any key numbers in a
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: first five inning under. But we're gonna do it with
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: the Cubs Anaheim here, and I know the public probably
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: gonna see this. In one and over here, seventy eight
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets are on the over and only fifty
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on the over. I know what.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: The total being high at nine and a half, the
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are kind of saying, we think this is gonna
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: be a high scoring game. It's actually headed towards ten.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna leave the bullpen's out because Anaeim's bullpen
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: is bad, so we can take ANEMS bullpen out of
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: the equation here there at least rested decently, though Cubs
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: bullpen well rested as well. They only use Ben Brown
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: and relief yesterday, so all their better relievers are available here,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: so if you wanted to go full game on this,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: you still could. I know, I don't love when the
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are basically telling you they think it's gonna be
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: a high scoring game, but I think there are reasons
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a lower scoring game.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: And the money's coming in towards Anaheim. Cubs down for
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty here eighty five percent of tickets, only
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the cash, So one of those
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: public road favorites here where a lot of times the
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: professional betters do see value on a home underdog, and
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: they might be seeing it here, And I think that
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: actually is good for our under because whenever I see
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: the worse of the two starting pitchers getting the money,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: that kind of indicates to me that the public or
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: the professional money is seemingly thinking that picture is actually
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: going to do better than you would think. So that's
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: kind of what I'm going with here, and that's that
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: tends to work out more often than it doesn't, and
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: it has recently for me as well, So that's what
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: we're going with here. Man. First five minutes, of course,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: we know the Cubs have the better offense. If you
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: want to look at the game, you know, in every
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: aspect of it here the Cubs do have something to
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: play for. Of course, Anaheim is out of it, and Anaheim
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: is definitely worse then the record went into Kate. But
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: we're going with an under here, so we're really focusing
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: just on the match up here. But there is a
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: situational component to this, which is part of the reason
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: why I actually want to go with this under here. Own.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: By the way, Toronto obviously does that motivation to play there.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: If you look into Candy Cap the side in that game, Miami,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: of course, what was I gonna say? Miami is out
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: of it, but Toronto, you know they're trying to win.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: At least. Toronto is a public road favorite though, by
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: the way, seventy seven percent and takes only fifty eight
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So if you're worried about Perez,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: the money seas to coming in on Perez to Toronto
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: down or up for minus went twenty seven to minus
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: one twenty eight. So both of these games we have
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: the home underdog with the picture that's been a little
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: bit shakier or whatever, the picture that you might trust
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit less getting the money, which I think
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: is a good sign for our unders here. But back
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: to Cubbs Anaheim. Here, we got Jameson tie On for
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. He was injured and he came back. He's
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: made one start since coming back. He has a four
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: point two to sixty RA, which isn't that great, but
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: a one point one to one pretty good. He hasn't
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: worse on the road, so we do have to worry
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: about that a little bit. Five point four ran the roads.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: This is one where I'm fading that split. But I
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: think he's back and for him in because when he
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: came back, his one start was a six inning, one
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: run performance against Milwaukee, so that was a good start,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: and he knows that he needs to keep playing man
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: because the Cubs are in second place, they're still trying
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: to make sure they make the playoffs here, so I
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna have a letdown. Really, even though
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: I know Anaheim, it's hard to focus on Anaheim. So
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: maybe that's part of the reason why maybe the money's
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: coming in and fading the Cubs here because they think
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: maybe Tyon is the more likely pitcher to be a
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: little bit distracted. But that good start against Milwaukee, four strikeouts,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: one walk against a really good Milwaukee offense at home
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: as well for the Cubs there in Milwaukee's a better
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: offense on the road. That's a good sign there that
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: he's in good form coming back from injury. There he's
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: going up against Kyle Hendrix, and you know me, I
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: don't particularly like Kyle Hendrix. And looking at these teams,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: looking at the sturdy pitcher's eras, I think this is
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: actually a sneaky under because the eras don't look that good.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: Hendrick's four point nine to three ERA. I know his
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: whip isn't good either, one point three. I know I've
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: been fading him more often than not over these last
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: few years. But he does have the better home road
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: splits four point five two RA at home. He is
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: better at home. I know he hasn't been good this month.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: I get it. Six point zero five R, fifteen to
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: eight strike a walk ratio has n't been good. I
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: understand he's not allowing a ton of runs at least
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: in his recent starts were kind of bad because it
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: was against Dodgers, I mean, they're a good offense, did
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit better, and then he went six innings
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: against the Reds. Yes, I know the Cubs are a
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: good offense as well. But the reason why I like
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: this and I think Hendricks is gonna be pumped up.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: He's facing the team that got rid of him after
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: last year, and man, the Cubs are his former team,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: and this will be the first time that he's faced
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: his former team in the Cubs. I'm I'm pretty sure
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: he is not facing this year because this is an
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: interleague game. Yes, that will mean that the Cubs do
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: know his tendencies because they had him lat year, but
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: the Cubs hitters have never seen him before and forty
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: will have barely seen him before. Only four of them
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: have seen him before and in forty six at bats. Yes,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Turner does have two of them runs off him, but
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: he's only four for twenty three off him. He has
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: five of the six walks against them. So yes, I know,
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: Hendrix does have an eighty six strike a walk ratio
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: against So that's not a good race. You have a
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: Turner basically all of the walks there and hasn't hit
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: him well overall. Hendricks has held him to a two
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: seventeen average at six ninety nine oh ps. But I
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: think part of the reason why this is so good
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: is that Hendricks he's pitching against his former team, man,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: so I think he's gonna be pumped up to face
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: his former team, So I think that's gonna put it
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: over the hump there. As far as this being an
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: under in the first five, here, you get a really
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: good number on this and again it looks like the
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: money is kind of agreeing with that as well, So
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go under that one as well. And then
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: to finish it off, we're gonna go A's and Seattle
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: under in the first five as well, which I think
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: you can find it at four out there that you
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: might have to pay a little bit. I like the
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup in this one. Man. The money's coming
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: in in the over in this one, for some reason,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: fifty tickets eighty four percent of the cash on the over,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: although the total dropped to seven and a half. It
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: is expected to be a low scoring game. We're gonna
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: take the bullpens out of the equation in this one.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: Seattle's bullpen is good, but they're a little bit used
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: up after yesterday, and the A's bullpen. I basically don't
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with them. They use four relief
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday. They're not a great bullpen, so I mean
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: they've been better recently, but they've been a pretty atrocious
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: bullpen this season. So we'll avoid the bullpens, although we
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: do still have the advantage of this being a pitcher
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: friendly park in Seattle. Yes, Seattle has a better offense
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: if you're looking at the side or excuse me, Oakland,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: excuse the A's have the better offense, but it's not
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: that significant. Both teams have a decent offense. Seattle has
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: a better bullpen, excuse me. Pitching wise, it's hard to
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: gauge which starting a pitcher is better. Seattle's sitting at
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: a minus one sixty five favorite, seventy percent tickets, eighty
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on Seattle, so the money's
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: coming in in Seattle. But we're looking at the starting
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: pitching here. Man, I think this is a pitching matchup.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: With Jacob Lopez pitching for the A's, He's he's had
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: bouts where he hasn't been good this season, but he's
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: had stretches where he's been really good, and he's on
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: one of those right now. He is pitching well. Man
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: three point two eighty r one point one to seven
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: whip on the season, seemingly coming from out of nowhere.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, at this point, I'm ready to trust that
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: he's actually pretty good, even though he is a little
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road, which is weird because the
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: a stadium is very, very hitter friendly. But Lopez is
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: not a guy that comes down and throws hard fastballs man,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: which of course hard fastballs can if you can connect
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: with them, you can hit home runs off of those.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: But Lopez is fooling guys with like off speed something
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: that they're not able to hit his hard, which I
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: think is translating well to that hitter friendly stadium there.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: His he R on the road is still not bad though,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: three point eight eight e RRA, and he just went
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: on a run where he had four shutout starts in
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: a row and his last turning only give up tour
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: in runs against Minnesota. He's got a point seven e
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: R this month. His team has won all of his
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: last five starts he's picked up, winning all four this month,
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: thirty two to three strike a walk ratio this month,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: with at least eight strike ups in each of his
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: last three outings. Really really good, although I know the
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: offenses weren't that good Washington, Tampa Bay, Minnesota in those three.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: He did do fairly well against Arizona the start before that.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: He did okay against Houston the start before that, although
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: exited before he was done with five innings. But he's
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. He's pitching well. We only
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: need him to get us five innings here. And Seattle
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: has never faced Lopez before, so even though they're in
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: the same division, he's basically just been pitching for the
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: A's this year and Seattle has not faced him yet,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: so he has an unfamiliarity edge here against Seattle. So
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: I like that. And Seattle's got Logan Gilbert pitching and
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: he is one of their better starters. Three point eight
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: three ERA, one point oh six Whip. He's got good numbers,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: and he's really good at home. He's way worse on
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: the road. He's way better at home. Two point two
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: two ERA at home. I know his last start wasn't good,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: but it was against Philly on the road, so I'm
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: gonna consider that to be a little bit more of
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: a blip. He gave up six roned runs. He got
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: knocked around pretty hard in that one, but this month
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: he does still have a twenty to five strike out
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He'll have three or four earned runs in
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: the other three outings. He is going up against an
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: A's offense that is fairly potent, but his numbers against
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: the A's are good and sixty at bats, he only
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: have eight hits against him. Yeah, Langoliers has two of
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: them runs off him. They have three on the runs
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: off him. But twenty two to two strike a walk
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: ratio tells me Gilbert has had really good command against him.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: He's pretty much dominated them. He's him to a one
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: thirty three average and five to eleven ops. So I
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: do think he bounces back in the comfort of home.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be leaning towards Seattle doing better
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: as well. But my recommendation on this one, as I said,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: is first five inning under and that's gonna do it. Man.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: Let's hope that we get these these wins here today. Man.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: We got Baltimore Orioles money line full game, and then
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: we got three first five inning unders on Toronto Miami
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: under the four at a higher prices, though I know
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: Cubs Anaheim under the five and a half and a
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: please Seattle under the four all first five inning plays
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: for those totals. That's gonna do it. Learn a tone
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram, got short bending
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: content there? Better off, dad, like subscribe to the channel.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks for helping me out, man go review, give me
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: a good rating on iTunes and Spotify because we're on
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: the audio stuff covered in. You can my yuke channel
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: on YouTube, which I do have to be better at
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: keeping that up to date. And Patreon dot com slash
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: learn your tone, and there's some bonus uke content on
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: there right now. Got to get some more like bonus
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: streams or something going to make it more worthwhile, I suppose.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: But I appreciate everybody, thanks for hanging out, and uh,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: I'll be back. I guess tomorrow morning. With a Monday card,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: it should be a lot easier to handicap, sure, probably
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: because it's always a shorter card on Monday. Peace everybody,