Latest / The Curve / TCW21: A mid-year check in on what's hot and what's not in the money, business + finance world

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TCW21: A mid-year check in on what's hot and what's not in the money, business + finance world · The Curve

• 0:00
  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly. The podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
• 0:06
  business and stock market tea. Everyone should experience for us at least once in their lives
• 0:10
  and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can't afford it. Help me, I'm poor.
• 0:14
  So I had my hair done. It looks fair! Do you actually sound like you're taking the
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  purse but my hair looks quite good. I know it does. The only thing is I got it done originally
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  a week ago and when they first washed it off I immediately thought I don't love it. I don't
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  love it and I said to my hairdresser who I love so I was like it feels yellow and she was like look
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  we're at a couple of days ask your friends if they think it's yellow and if it does come back.
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  Anyway I decided to be a Karen. Oh and you complained don't we be able to get it done? Yeah I was just
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  like look I don't love I mean when you pay three hundred and fifty dollars for your hair to be done.
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  But it's so awkward like oh I know I'm always like yeah love it yeah and then walk out
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  and I'm like call my sister or someone and I'm like oh it's terrible. I actually went
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  what I remember in Sydney and I wanted to get this is the first time I'd ever had my hair dyed
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  and I was probably like 26, 27 and I wanted to get balayage you know with like that. Yeah I think
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  I remember the space for you and I was like got a recommendation of like a good hairdresser in
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  Sydney, went along and I said I want balayage and I was like yes I was really excited. I went to pay
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  and it was nearly five hundred dollars for balayage for balayage and I was like I can't
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  get them to undo it. I was like well I've had the service so I have to pay and I was just like
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  how on earth does anyone get their hair dyed? I was like that was the first and last time I was
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  ever getting my hair dyed. I mean to be fair you're also only doing the ends when you do balayage
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  that's what I really fell off my seat and I was like I stupidly I should have asked before I
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  went in but I just assumed it would be you know what were you expect a couple of hundred you know
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  I knew getting your hair dyed was expensive for a female but I was just like gobs max. I thought
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  that hairdresser's generally would quote beforehand or if it's not there's a lot of money what if
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  I got in like sorry I don't have that amount yeah it's quite weird actually now you say that you
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  don't get told before you get it done how much it is yeah there'd be so many people that would get
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  to the counter and be like it's what yeah well I kind of thought up you've already done it
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  but I just felt I don't know it's one of those times like I sat in the hairdresser chair and I
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  said to the girl who dyed my hair because it wasn't my hairdresser that did it like you know those
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  hairdresses that are so good that they direct someone else to do the color yeah she was like I want
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  five here six here three here whatever and I had no idea where she was talking three four oh one
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  and a six two five and I was like whatever she knows what she's doing yeah and then when I went
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  when I left I really didn't like it and then I went back in and I sat down and this awkwardly
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  the girl who had done my dye was like hello you're back it's me I was like sorry for being a
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  Karen would you what if you didn't like it now would you go back again you're absolutely
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  Karen well you can't be a Karen twice but I was part of the world honestly like surely no one
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  asked his name and they could Karen I know I know but imagine if Sophie just became the new Karen
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  how can I say would you be I reckon I just oh no I'd be like well sorry I'm a Karen I'm a
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  Sophie so we are recording the Curve Weekly today on a Saturday night because we have nothing
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  better so no we actually are having enough that I'm going to claim this is my leaving party we're
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  having a leaving party because we're going to London you see that in like a meeting I think
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  someone asked what what do we have to say yeah yeah like we're having it I'm so oh we
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  the kids having a leaving party that I've invited all my other leaving so it makes sense
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  but to space it up we're having a tequila while recording and we just thought you know
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  it's banging up before the guests come because tomorrow we're going to be hung over and
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  wipe the other record I think that's your one oh did you drink is it's tastes like lime tequila I mean
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  no I think this is man yeah so it feels quite weird to be talking about the Curve Weekly stuff now
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  what's going on in the world so yes so the stock market last week in the US so the S&P 500
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  was up slightly and because we're at the end of May I thought like let's do a chicken you know
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  how we're doing for the year so yeah so the year to date the S&P 500 is up 10% which is
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  quite good but remember it fell 20% last year in 2022 so it fell 20 it's now rebounded 10 so
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  it's still got 10 to go it's still it's still pretty far below those highs but at least it's my
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  heads way back up imagine if it went down even more totally yeah yeah and then the Nasdaq that was
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  not nearly four percent last week so another really strong week and the Nasdaq that anyone who's
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  just listening for the first time is the tech index like quite tech focused index in the US so there's
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  two there's ends what is it S&P 500 yes yes and so that the Nasdaq yes the more tech focused
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  index it's up 32% this year oh gosh I know why is it because the metaverse AI and all that yeah
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  and it's it's all around yeah artificial intelligence all those names been doing really well
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  but it also fell a lot last year fell 32% so yeah so it's kind of this is the index that falls
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  has big fall the big rebound as well NZX 50 was down about over 2% I mean it's only up 2%
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  this year but it fell 12% last year so it didn't fall as much and asix 200 had a bad week it's
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  only up 3% this year but it was one of the best performing indexes last year it only fell 5% so
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  I must ask you and you're probably going to be like shout out this is the whole point of the
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  podcast but every time you start talking about what's up and what's down I really glaze over
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  I'm like do I need to know this week to week like is it important I think it just shows
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  that things move around so much and so quickly like the fact that the Nasdaq fell 32% last
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  year and it's already up 32% this is why we can't be timing the market because we don't know what
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  it's going to do the market jumps around all the time and if you had waited and not invested
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  this year because you thought oh I'm scared about what's going to do you would have missed that whole
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  32% increase that we've had this year in the Nasdaq so this is why it's just kind of reinforcing
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  take a long term view and keep investing consistently and regularly but I had some good news
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  last week for me it's totally Microsoft isn't it uh no is it another one you mentioned uh no good
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  news for me and bad news for you so I'm let me just try and figure out what this is can you give me
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  any clue houses oh yeah yeah yeah so for all those that don't own houses the sucks because prices
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  certainly to go back up um pretty much yes so we had a New Zealand we had the official cash rate
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  which is effectively the country's interest rate announcement and every month they announced
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  whether increase is going to be an increase or a decrease in interest rates and we had yes we had
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  an increase this month so we had a .25% so a quarter of a percent increase to 5.5% now the good news
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  that came out of that announcement was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which is you know the big bank
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  that tells all the other banks what to do said that this would be the last increase so effectively
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  saying mortgage rates aren't going to go any higher which is awesome news because people will be
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  sitting there going oh my gosh I can't take this anymore like my mortgage repayments have doubled
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  or you know we've gone up so much and I'm struggling to feed my family and sorry we're actually
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  going to do a full episode on this this Wednesday for raising the curvy episode about property and
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  understanding it because it is a whole can of words oh totally yeah so the essential main point here
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  is that mortgage rates will not be going up at all and they said they could expect them to come down
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  towards the end of 2024 so oh that's good so they're quite so yeah so people can see the light
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  at the end of the totally yeah but I was actually looking at some data and I was like I wonder what
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  interest rates were like this time last year and we were 30% so they've gone from 2 to 5 and a half
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  which is a big jump um but I just wanted to run through a little scenario so this is great news
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  because it means house prices will start to go back up eventually because interest when interest
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  rates go up house prices come down and it's all to do with mortgage repayments it's more expensive
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  to borrow money so therefore less people can and then for less demand for houses but house prices
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  in New Zealand have fallen 15% since their peak in November 2021 and yeah economists are saying
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  that there should be an extra few percent of a fall before they start going back up but if we
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  just looked at the average house price in New Zealand still $900,000 huge now the average income
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  in New Zealand is just over $60,000 if we do a scenario so say you have to put down a 20% deposit
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  for house which is the minimum you have to have an $180,000 deposit oh my gosh you have to
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  borrow $720,000 is a mortgage with current interest rates of about 6% current mortgage rates
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  you'll be paying $43,000 a year on your mortgage just on interest so not paying back any of your
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  mortgage which is 70% of your salary if you want it's on believable it gets worse you take out
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  taxes which on $61,000 is about $11,000 what's left over? $7,000 a year for the whole year
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  for the whole year like this is just ridiculous like there's that's why the Greens Party are talking
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  a lot at the moment about the wealth being in such a small percentage of New Zealand isn't it
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  because I mean I have it I don't know much about it but what's wrong with your tequila discussing
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  no it's just wrong okay because I keep seeing little clips on Instagram and it would be really
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  cool to go into more detail about this at another time but that must be what they're talking about
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  because only if you have an exorbitant amount of money can you afford to have a property?
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  Totally and so you think about how a later set is and how disproportionate the wealth is with
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  that a tiny percentage of people having lots and everyone else battling that's so not how to expect
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  average income in New Zealand yeah that's not even the low that's not even low that's not even
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  high there's like so many people below that amount of income you see there's a lot of people above
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  but like that's yeah it's just crazy one needs to change is it interest like how how is it
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  is it paying people more is it it's I think it's more one thing I in my opinion be to build more
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  houses more quickly because then house prices won't go up as much but developers we were yeah
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  but then there's all like we've got a huge monopoly in terms of which means you're one company
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  that dominates the building products in New Zealand so is that picture building so they can
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  charge higher prices for a lot of like is picture building listed company yes interesting so yeah
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  so there's lots but there's lots of things that play into it there's so many blockages of the pipe
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  yeah kind of that kind of thing so we're not going to talk about property too much no longer no
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  because we do have a full episode coming out this Wednesday so if you are interested in learning
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  about the housing market the property market what's going on we do a full deep dive and I tell you
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  what you will come away knowing a lot a lot we actually did a little test with one of the girls
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  in the office I was like can you listen to this episode and just tell me what you think? Well yep
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  I've got a full run down beautiful yes just like it's great great great great great is like my
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  brain hurts and other news I know we've spoken about Àule like a lot which is Larry Vuitton Moie
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  he remains secretly owns a overเ zeh I love you i love to but the luxury stocks in general had a
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  really bad week last week so LVLH was down 4% which was 30 billion dollars wiped off its market
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  cap and that's the side market cap is like the size of the company yeah so it's about 500 billion
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  dollars in market cap and it had about 30 billion wiped off in one week so yeah when you're a big
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  company a small move like that was not small but 4% yeah it ends up being a lot of money
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  and then we had caring which is which runs Gucci they their share price fell about 3%
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  it means fell 6% so all the luxury names had a really bad week last week and it's all around
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  it's trying to lock down again not yeah there's another outbreak we're going into lockdown
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  sorry it's not even a funny joke I did that too what did you do it to it to a friend we were out
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  for dinner I did it to Polly what did you do we were out for dinner I think we're out for dinner and
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  this is ages ago and my phone went off and I was like oh my gosh oh I know this joke is like
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  just tell you I was like we're going into lockdown we're going which is horrible because I know a
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  lot of people like that's you know that was a really struggling time so I felt like on reflection
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  I feel really good but at the time it was funny for me you're such a dead joke and then I was
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  like we're going to lockdown she was like panic she was like oh my god oh my god oh my god and I
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  let her feast her for a couple of seconds and then I was like jokes and she did she fall
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  what did she punch it like she was about to set me in the face like and I was the only one laughing
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  at the table yeah that's I reckon you would have been there you know you're like okay bad joke
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  anyway sorry no China is not going back into lockdown no but everyone's well investors are
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  getting really concerned about the demand from the US so this increased concerns of a recession
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  and the ability for you know Americans to buy the debt ceiling area yeah and just like a bit of
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  cost of living crisis all of that are like okay the luxury names they did have a great run
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  in terms of their share prices so maybe it is just kind of you know chilling out a bit in terms
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  of a bit of a correction but yeah there are concerns that that's not going to be as strong
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  that they were all of a sudden like maybe I shouldn't buy Louis Vuitton in the middle of a
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  cost of living crisis maybe I can't afford to so yeah so that was why they kind of fell off even
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  though there is still that's really strong demand from China but again this is a really good example
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  of how stocks and indexes and you know share prices can jump around so much in the short term
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  but you have to take that long term view if you're thinking you know what there's going to be more
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  people with higher incomes that are going to buy luxury goods and products then I'm going to buy
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  these stocks and then that's fine but you can get so caught up in the short term movements
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  and yeah that's why it's just it's always good to take a long term view and do dollar cost
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  averaging which is you know oh god there's a lot of acronyms using here okay I'm explaining
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  okay at my time go sorry so long term view and dollar cost averaging in the same sentence
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  have another drink all I'm good for is the nice chucking my tequila
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  slurring your words you can't hear too much of this oh you will be able to so sorry sorry
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  it's all about continuing to invest so if you're investing $100 a week consistently
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  buying these names don't get too caught up in the short term movements so because even
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  the their share prices are falling you're going to get you're going to be buying them at cheaper
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  prices so when they're rebounding in you've got more because you've been able to buy more
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  just try to educate here I'm like is this Saturday night? Do we have time for one more?
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  yeah oh how quick is that there's one really cool thing that I read and it's all about
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  women participating in the workforce now more than ever which is awesome so
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  in the US with women aged between 25 and 54 who are employed and looking for work it's nearly
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  80 percent now which is the highest it's been since 2000 so this is really really epic considering
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  all the job losses which were so heavily weighted to women during COVID there's been a huge rebound
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  of of women in the workforce which is also it was like 90 percent of women in New Zealand lost
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  their jobs and like of the people who lost their jobs were women in New Zealand or something
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  so in the quarter so the first three months so COVID happened in March and then so April, May and
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  June there was 11,000 job losses in New Zealand and 10,000 of those were women which is 90 percent
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  which is pretty shocking but I guess it's kind of not a completely rosy picture because it's
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  it is a sign of the fact that time's right and so you know you might have been living off one
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  income and you're like actually we need both of us to work now so yeah not a huge silver lining
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  don't know if that's right but it's good to see it's good to see so yeah and we're going to start
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  a new thing because we did this a couple of like episodes ago I think it was with
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  hey from when it was oh it was we were talking to Izzy Truman which by the way is a really good
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  episode if you want to learn about how you can invest during a recession it was a few
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  raised in the curve episodes ago anyway but just had this brilliant idea of doing a would you
• 18:02
  rather I love would you rather it's such a big thing isn't it yeah anyway so we thought at the
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  time we could do a little would you rather yeah hit me a better be a good one would you rather
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  never have to worry about money again or never be lonely again oh never be lonely again
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  definitely because I've got both of those things now worry about my life and I'm lonely
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  I think definitely, I would weigh rather, I'm not feeling lonely right now by the way,
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  just as a quick love therapy session, but that is a shit feeling, feeling alone.
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  I would rather, what would you say?
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  I feel alone at times now, and then I can do something about it, do you know what I mean?
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  I'm really like, if I'm concerned, but I don't know, I'm just jumping on Tinder.
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  Yeah.
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  Hey, it's me, remember?
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  So you reckon you have more control over your money than you do your loneliness?
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  No, but seriously, what would yours bet at end of the day?
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  Would you choose?
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  Money.
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  Really?
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  Yeah.
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  Hold it a bit.
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  Hold it a bit.
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  I know, I know, it sounds really, you could buy your friends.
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  Oh, God.
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  I'm just joking, I'm just joking, but like, imagine never having to worry about money.
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  You'd be like, hey, let's all go on holiday.
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  Oh, yeah, because they'd be real good mates.
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  If it gives a free holiday, let's go on all that.
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  This is so big.
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  And on that note, go ahead and consider it loving him.
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  I'm just joking.
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  What would you choose?
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  Never be lonely again.
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  Definitely.
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  Yeah, actually, I'll be...
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  Imagine being rich and lonely, that was...
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  It's so shit.
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  Like, how many rich and lonely people are there?
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  Yeah.
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  No, I take that back.
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  Never be lonely.
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  You can't.
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  You're going to be rich and lonely.
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  You can pay me to be your friend.
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  Yeah.
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  Oh, my God.
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  Because I'll be poor.
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  I'll be poor.
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  I'll be free.
• 19:59
  Thank you so much for listening to The Curve Weekly.
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• 20:03
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• 20:23
  Bye, bye.
• 20:25
  So yeah, see you next Tuesday.
• 20:27
  Well, see you next Tuesday, I made Monday.