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Conference Realignment TIMELINE Just CHANGED & NOBODY Is Talking About It... | FSU | Clemson | Miami · College Football Addiction: A Show About All Things College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to College Football Addiction, you realignment junkies. We
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: are presented by PrizePix, where all new users get $ 150
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: in lineups if they win a $ 5 lineup using code HMA.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Everybody's been waiting for the day that Florida State or
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Clemson walk out of the ACC. Some people think it
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: could happen this year. Some people think next year. Some
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: people are convinced it's already happened behind closed doors, and
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: we just haven't heard about it yet. But here is
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the truth that nobody is talking about. It has already happened.
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  Speaker 1: Not the exit, but the deadline to even ask for
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  Speaker 1: an exit. And it passed months ago. Which means whatever
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: you've heard this offseason, whatever rumor, whatever insider tweet, whatever
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: podcast clip somebody sent you, none of it matters for 2026.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: That window is closed and so is 2027. Let's talk
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: about it right now. For the last two years, conference
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: realignment and the conversation around it has followed the same script.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Florida State's unhappy. Clemson is unhappy. Lawsuits get filed. A
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: settlement was reached. Exit fees were negotiated. In every offseason,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: we go back to the same speculation about when, not if,
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  Speaker 1: somebody finally walks. That speculation is not unreasonable. Florida State
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  Speaker 1: sued the ACC in large part to try to get out.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Clemson sued the ACC for the same reason. North Carolina
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  Speaker 1: spent tons of money quietly behind the scenes to research
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  Speaker 1: what they could do to get out. I've got it
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  Speaker 1: on good word that Miami has had their fair share
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: of conversations down there in South Florida too. All of
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  Speaker 1: them have made it very clear they believe their future
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: is likely somewhere else. So it's natural to assume the
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: second an opportunity presents itself, one of them will take it.
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  Speaker 1: But here's what most of that conversation misses. Wanting to
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  Speaker 1: be out and being able to get out at the
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: same time are not the same thing. And thanks to
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the settlement both schools agreed to, there's now a hard
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  Speaker 1: date on the calendar that decides who even gets to
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  Speaker 1: have that conversation in any given year. It is June 1st.
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  Speaker 1: That's the new deadline for any ACC member to formally
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  Speaker 1: notify the conference of intent to withdraw the next year.
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  Speaker 1: It's not August 15th like it used to be. It
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: is June 1st. And this year that date came and
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  Speaker 1: went with total silence. No letter from Tallahassee, no letter
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  Speaker 1: from Clemson, Miami or Chapel Hill, no letter from anybody,
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  Speaker 1: which means legally and maybe mechanically on paper, the entire
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: ACC is locked in for 2026 and 2027. Every single member,
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  Speaker 1: not just FSU, not just Clemson, but every school wearing
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  Speaker 1: an ACC logo is now contractually stuck with it through
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: at least next season. Now, I do want to be
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: clear about something because this is where people usually jump
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  Speaker 1: to the wrong conclusion. I don't think that means Florida
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: State's staying forever. I don't think that means Clemson has
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  Speaker 1: made peace with anything or that UNC or Miami are
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  Speaker 1: in this conference for the long term. This doesn't suddenly
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: mean that the ACC is now stable for the next
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  Speaker 1: decade plus. What it means is a lot simpler than that.
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  Speaker 1: The clock resets every single year. and this window is
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  Speaker 1: now closed. If you're a school that wanted to leave
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  Speaker 1: in 2027, you had to have your letter in by
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: June 1st, and nobody did, which tells you one of
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: two things. Either nobody's actually ready to make that move yet,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: or everybody's playing a much longer game than the outside
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: noise may suggest. I think it's probably a mix of both,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: because here's the part that actually matters if you're trying
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: to figure out when this happens. The deadline isn't just
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: a formality. It is directly tied to money. And the
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: money changes every single year. Speaking of money, if you're
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: shopping for college football gear, I know the season is
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: quickly approaching. Make sure you do so at Alumni Hall.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Use our code CFA15 to save 15% both online and in-store.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Get your favorite team's merch and gear at a discount.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: We appreciate Alumni Hall for their support. Let's talk about
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the exit fee for a moment. Because this is the
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  Speaker 1: number that actually drives the conversation. It's what drives the timeline,
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  Speaker 1: not vibes, not tweets, not what somebody said here or there.
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  Speaker 1: Real numbers. And here's how it breaks down. If a
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  Speaker 1: school had left during the 2025-2026 fiscal year, the exit
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  Speaker 1: fee was $ 165 million. That number is already gone. Nobody
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: paid it. For 2026-2027, it drops to $ 147 million. Nobody, again,
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  Speaker 1: is going to use it. And this is where it
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  Speaker 1: gets interesting. 27, 28, it's 129 million. 20, 28, 29,
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  Speaker 1: 111 million. 29, 30, 93 million. And then it flattens
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  Speaker 1: out 75 million a year every year from 2030 all
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  Speaker 1: the way through 2036, whenever a school decides to pull
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  Speaker 1: the trigger. So walk through that with me. Every single
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: year that passes, it gets cheaper to leave the ACC.
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  Speaker 1: $ 18 million cheaper. on average, every cycle right up until 2030.
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  Speaker 1: The big question would then be, how much would you
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  Speaker 1: make from a new conference if you could join? If
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  Speaker 1: you're losing out on $ 18 million a year by going
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  Speaker 1: a year too early, can your new contract make up
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  Speaker 1: for that? Now, there's certainly an argument the other way.
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  Speaker 1: Why pay $ 129 million when $ 111 million is right around
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  Speaker 1: the corner? Every year of patience is potentially or theoretically
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: a discount, but That doesn't factor in the money you
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: could make in a new conference. It's not necessarily schools
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  Speaker 1: getting cold feet. It is a school reading a contract
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  Speaker 1: and also wondering where the heck they have to land.
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  Speaker 1: And this is where the June 1st deadline and the
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  Speaker 1: sliding exit fee actually work together to tell you something
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  Speaker 1: pretty real. They are not separate stories. They're the same story.
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  Speaker 1: Because if the idea is to wait for the buyout
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  Speaker 1: to come down, then of course this year's deadline passed quietly.
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  Speaker 1: Of course nobody filed a letter. The incentive to wait
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: didn't just exist. It got stronger every single year right
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: until the fee flatlines. Or maybe the home that many
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  Speaker 1: teams thought we had doesn't quite exist just yet. Which
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  Speaker 1: means if you're circling a date on a calendar, and
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  Speaker 1: you should be, it's not this year. And it's likely
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: not next year. The real pressure point starts building as
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  Speaker 1: we get closer to 2030. When the discount stops working
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  Speaker 1: in your favor and the fee sits at a flat
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  Speaker 1: $ 75 million from that point forward. Once the number stops shrinking,
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  Speaker 1: the reason to wait disappears with it. That's when the
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  Speaker 1: conversation will very much stop being theoretical. Now, here's the
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  Speaker 1: part that I actually want to push back on something
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: just a moment. Because Pete Thamel said this a few
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  Speaker 1: times now, and I got tagged in it on Twitter.
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  Speaker 1: but most recently on the ACC Preview podcast that Florida
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  Speaker 1: State doesn't have a guaranteed landing spot once it's clear
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  Speaker 1: of the ACC. And technically, I guess he's right about that.
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  Speaker 1: Nobody has signed anything. Nobody has issued a press release.
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  Speaker 1: But I think no guaranteed landing spot gets repeated so
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: often that it almost sounds like nobody wants them. And
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  Speaker 1: I just don't think that's true. We've talked about why
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: these different programs bring value and why Florida State, Clemson, Miami,
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina... would be very valuable additions, not just vibes,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: not brand, not nostalgia, actual numbers. Start with TV. In 2025,
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  Speaker 1: Alabama and Florida State pulled in over 10.6 million viewers.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: LSU Clemson did close to 10.5 million. Those aren't ACC numbers.
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  Speaker 1: Those are numbers that live right alongside the SEC's biggest
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: games of the year. And here's the part that should
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: really change how people think about this. FSU had a
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  Speaker 1: losing season in 2024, 2-10. and it still moved a
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  Speaker 1: television audience most ACC programs have never sniffed. Win or lose.
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  Speaker 1: I think that tells you something. The audience isn't showing
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  Speaker 1: up right now because Florida State is good. It's showing
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  Speaker 1: up because Florida State is Florida State. It's the same
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: story with Clemson. Same story, honestly, with Miami, even though
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  Speaker 1: Miami's not really part of the bad football conversation. Now
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  Speaker 1: think about what those brands actually do inside of a
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  Speaker 1: conference schedule. Right now, FSU's marquee games are against Miami, Clemson, Florida,
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  Speaker 1: and Bama. Move Florida State into the SEC, and instead
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  Speaker 1: of FSU-BC, you get FSU-Georgia. Instead of Clemson-Syracuse, you get Clemson-LSU.
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  Speaker 1: Those aren't just better games. Those are appointment television. Those
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  Speaker 1: are not just better games. They are appointment television, the
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  Speaker 1: kind that networks pay real money to lock down. There's
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  Speaker 1: also independent valuation data backing this up. The Athletic put
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  Speaker 1: Florida State's football program's value right at $ 867 million. Clemson
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  Speaker 1: landed close at over $ 650 million. Those numbers put both
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  Speaker 1: schools solidly inside major conference territory, certainly not on the
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: outside looking in. So when people say there's no guaranteed
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  Speaker 1: landing spot, I think what's actually true is a little
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  Speaker 1: more nuanced than that. I don't think anybody's been issued
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  Speaker 1: a formal invitation yet, and I think that's accurate. but
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  Speaker 1: that's different from saying that nobody wants them. Sankey's on
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  Speaker 1: record saying he's comfortable with the SEC's current setup and
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  Speaker 1: that he's not interested in slicing the pie into more
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  Speaker 1: pieces without a reason. I think that's fair enough, but
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  Speaker 1: not right now and not ever are two completely different sentences.
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  Speaker 1: The real question the SEC is working through isn't whether
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  Speaker 1: Florida State or Clemson would help. It's whether they'd help
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  Speaker 1: enough to justify handing out a bigger piece of pie
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  Speaker 1: to more schools. But here's the actual math. The SEC's
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  Speaker 1: media deal runs around $ 710 million a year. Adding two
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  Speaker 1: more schools means spreading that deal further unless the deal
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  Speaker 1: itself grows to match. So the real number the SEC
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  Speaker 1: is chasing isn't is Florida State. Clemson, Miami, North Carolina
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  Speaker 1: good for television? It's does FSU move that $ 710 million
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  Speaker 1: number enough to make the math work for everybody that's
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  Speaker 1: already in the room? Based on what these programs have
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  Speaker 1: shown on the ratings, even these years that have been mediocre,
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  Speaker 1: I think that answer leans, yes, far more than no
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  Speaker 1: guaranteed landing spot narrative gives them credit for. Nobody has
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: signed a deal, and I think that part's true. But
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: there's a massive difference between unwanted and undecided. And I
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  Speaker 1: think a lot of the coverage on this collapses those
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  Speaker 1: two things into the same thing. Now, does that mean
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: nothing happens before then? Not necessarily. Football doesn't always follow
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: a spreadsheet. If the media landscape ships fast, if a
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: streaming deal blows up television valuations, if the SEC decides
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  Speaker 1: the math finally works, none of that waits for a
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: fee schedule to make sense. Leverage and opportunity can override
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: patience in a hurry, but barring something like that, the
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: math is pretty straightforward. The rational move for every ACC
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: program flirting with an exit is to sit tight until
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the number either drops enough or your next conference is
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  Speaker 1: willing to make up that difference. And that's what we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing right now. Silence on a deadline everybody assumed would
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  Speaker 1: be dramatic, but it wasn't the deadline where drama made
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  Speaker 1: financial sense. Here's the other piece of this that doesn't
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: get talked about enough. This isn't just a Florida State
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and Clemson story. The settlement that created this deadline applies
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to every ACC member, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia. Every program
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: in that conference now operates under the same exact calendar,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: the same exact shrinking exit fee, the same incentive to
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: wait or go. which means the next few years aren't
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: just about whether Florida State finally walks or Clemson finally
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: walks or Miami's in the Big Ten. It's about which
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  Speaker 1: schools quietly run the same math and reach their final conclusion.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's just Florida State and Clemson. Maybe it's just
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Miami and North Carolina. Maybe it's more than that. Maybe
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: it's a program that nobody's talking about right now that
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: looks at 2030 and decides that's their number two. Remember,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: North Carolina was one of those magnificent seven schools that
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: reportedly explored a possible exit alongside Florida State and Clemson
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  Speaker 1: a few years back. They didn't sue, they didn't make
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the same amount of noise, but they were in the room.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Miami's leadership has been just as careful with its language,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: never ruling anything out, always framing decisions around what's best
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  Speaker 1: for the institution, which in college athletics is basically code
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  Speaker 1: for we're watching everybody else's math too. The deadline doesn't
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  Speaker 1: care about fan bases. It doesn't care about rivalries or history.
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  Speaker 1: It's the same door. It's open to everybody on the
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  Speaker 1: same date every single year. And the longer it sits
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: there unused, the more it starts to feel less like
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: a formality and more like a test. Who blinks first?
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Who actually believes their own number is worth more outside
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: the conference than inside of it? Who's willing to go
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: first and absorb whatever chaos comes with being the school
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: that finally breaks the seal? Nobody wants to be early.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Nobody wants to be alone. That's usually how these things work.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Not one school making a bold move in isolation, a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: domino waiting for another domino to flip behind it. And
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: there's a historical pattern here as well, because we've seen
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: this exact dynamic play out before. Texas and OU did
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: not announce their move to the SEC the moment they
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: were unhappy in the Big 12. They waited. They let
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the timing align with media deals, with legal exposure, the
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: moment the math actually made sense. USC and UCLA didn't
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  Speaker 1: leave the Pac-12 the first year there was smoke about instability.
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  Speaker 1: They left. when the conference's television situation collapsed to the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: point where staying no longer made financial sense. Every major
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: realignment move over the last five years has followed the
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  Speaker 1: same quiet pattern before it became a headline. Patience and
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: balancing the numbers. The numbers will line up, and then
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  Speaker 1: a decision that looks sudden to everybody on the outside
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: had been sitting there on a spreadsheet for years on
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: the inside. And I think that's what's happening right now
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  Speaker 1: with the ACC. It just doesn't look dramatic yet because
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the drama hasn't arrived at the right number So where
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  Speaker 1: does this actually leave us? I don't think Florida State's
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: going anywhere in 2026. I don't think Clemson, Miami, or
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: North Carolina either. Not because they've changed their minds, but
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: because the numbers told them to wait. And this year,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: they listened. But the patience has an expiration date built
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: right into it. Every year that passes between now and 2030,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: the reason to keep waiting gets smaller and smaller. And
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: once that fee hits its floor, there's no more discount
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: left to chase. There's no more reason to sit on
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: the sidelines That's the year this stops being a legal
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: fight and starts being an actual decision. And when that
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: year comes, I don't think Florida State, Clemson, Miami, or
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: North Carolina are walking out into a void. I think
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: they're walking into a negotiation where they're holding better cards
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: than the no guaranteed landing spot narrative gives them credit for.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: The audience is already there. The valuation is already there.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: The only thing that isn't there yet is the willingness
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: to cut the check and the spot open with doors
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: wide open for you. I think that's very different than
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: the problem of nobody wants them to answer Pete Thamel.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: So if you're waiting for the moment conference realignment blows
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: this whole thing up again, stop watching for a lawsuit.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Don't look for tweets. Watch the calendar because the ACC
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: is not safe forever. It's just safe until the math
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: stops rewarding patients and that clock is running. We appreciate
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: you guys for tuning in. I'd love to hear your
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: thoughts down in the comments. We appreciate our friends over
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• 15:28
  Speaker 1: We'll see you guys on the next one.