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Trump Needs China — But China Wants a Multipolar World | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Steel Podcast. I'm your host, Carl Tsang. Today I have
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: the crowd favorite back, Einar Tengen, senior fellow from CIG.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the show, Einar.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I love that, crowd favorite. I mean, you lie really well.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Have you considered politics?
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to talk about your favorite politician today, Einar.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: We're going to talk about Trump. But more specifically, I.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Would like to talk about She Trump Summit that just happened.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: This is a big event. And what is your take
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: on the whole thing? Did anything get accomplished? Why did
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Trump even want this to happen?
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Well, he needs something. You know, with Donald Trump, it's
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: all transactional. So he doesn't want to meet you unless
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: you have something he wants or he wants to shove
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: some deal down your proverbial gullet. No, I mean, Donald
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: Trump is in desperate need of rare earths. We all
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: know that, you know, U.S. munitions have been depleted. And
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: it's not just the munitions. They take up smaller ones.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: But if you're going to sell an F-35, You need
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: hundreds of pounds of rare earths. And guess who controls
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: 90% of the market, including 98%. I mean, it's not like, okay,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: if I can't use this rare earth, I can use
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: another one. You have to have the complete set. And
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: especially when it comes to these high-end magnets and some
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: other things where you need extreme purity. China basically owns
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: the market. They're the ones who can produce this at
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: scale and at cost. So he's in a difficult position.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: He needs this. The question is, what is he prepared
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: to trade for it on his side? But on the
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Chinese side, you know, there's maybe just an iota of
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: trust issue. So given that he's not always been the
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: most straightforward guy tearing up shares, like the JCPOA and
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: then deciding he needs to go to war to try
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: to get that agreement back. Always interesting. So there were,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm making fun of this, but there were
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: some very, very important things that happened here. First off, foremost,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Xi Jinping was treated as an equal. So this will
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: be remembered as a watershed moment when it was the
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: United States through the office of the president who, in essence,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: said China is our peer. Now, China isn't interested in
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: being the U.S. peer. What they want to be is cooperative.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: They want to have not a G2, but a multilateral,
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: multipolar world, which works for all countries. They've seen the
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: mistakes that the colonial powers have made over the years,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: trying to enforce their ideology or religion or government systems
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: on other other people while taking resources from them. And
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: they decided that this is not the way to go.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: They prefer a civilizational approach, which is, okay, this is
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: going to be difficult, but we're going to sit and
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: talk until we figure this out. They want to use
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: peer pressure to a large extent, regional bodies who can
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: come together and just make decisions and talk about things.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: And we saw that quite clearly with the BRICS meeting.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: and also SEO. You had countries that are literally at
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: war with one another actually being able to meet and talk.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: And this is really the first step towards bringing about peace.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: So China has a different system. The U.S. has its
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: own idea about maintaining hegemony, American exceptionalism, and how this
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: is beneficial for the world. I don't know that the
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: rest of the world agrees But this was the moment
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: when China ascended, at least in the U.S. eyes, with
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: the rest of the world, watching to being a peer,
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to being treated as an equal, not something that the U.S.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: is used to doing. So very important on the optics.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Also important because they talked. If you don't talk, you
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: run the risk of, you know, accidents, misunderstandings. The more
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: you talk, you lessen that risk. And this is a
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: prime point for China. It also is important to the U.S.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: The U.S. does not want a direct confrontation with China,
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: nor does China want a direct confrontation with the U.S.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: But the U.S. agenda, which is to contain China, obviously
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: is not friendly. So how do you handle a situation
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: like this? And from China's point of view, following the
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: civilization model, you continue to talk. You figure out what
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: you can agree on as opposed to what you can't
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: agree on. But in the end, there wasn't much there
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: for Donald Trump. He had been hoping to get a
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: big order of Boeing airplanes and also a commitment to
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: buy large quantities of American soybean, wheat, and corn. Obviously,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: those did not materialize. On the concrete front, there wasn't much.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: The Board of Trade was once again referenced, and they
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: said they were given a task to reduce tariffs on
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: both sides by $ 30 billion, based on the idea that
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: none of these tariffs should have been put forth in
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: the first place because they have really nothing to do
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: with national security. So you have the pandas out there,
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: like once again, great optics, but not exactly going to
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: do it. The two-month extension of the trade truce, well,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's better than nothing. But if you're a
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: businessman and it takes 24 months from the moment that
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: you make the order to the time that you get it,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: given the increased problems with logistics, this isn't exactly what
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: you're looking for. Six months had been the target. For
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: whatever reason, it came down two months. The timing of
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: its expiration is interesting because it is just before Congress,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: the new Congress people and senators are sworn in. A
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: little ominous from my point of view, given that if
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Trump loses, and it looks like his party is going
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: to lose badly, He's not somebody to just say, OK, well,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: let the process win. We saw on January 6th that
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: he will and is capable of trying to take extreme measures.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: And there are some really troubling things that are happening.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth, the Department of War, has instituted wartime battlefield promotions.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: Why is this important? Because he's firing most of the
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: command staff. because they do not go along with, I
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: tell you to do something and you do it. You know,
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: for instance, it's not, they're willing to fire on boats
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: in the Caribbean, but they're not willing to do illegal actions.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: They're not willing to swear loyalty directly to Donald Trump.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: And this is troubling to Pete Hedstaff because his entire
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: life and future depends on getting a pardon from Donald
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: Trump and continuing his power. So, This battlefield promotion allows
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: him to select people he thinks are loyal, throw them
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: and say that you report to wherever, one of these ships,
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: and then I can promote you as far as I
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: want to go. There's no limit on it. So he
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: could literally gin up a couple of major generals just
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: by pretending that they were somehow connected to this battlefield thing.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: So And why would he do that? Obviously, he would
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: believe that they would be loyal to his agenda and
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: perhaps the president's in the case of some sort of
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: crisis and where Donald Trump wants to use the troops
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: to do it. I don't think in the end it works.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think the American armed forces are prepared to
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: interact with civilians These are their own people. They are
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: not hired mercenaries or something like that. And they swore
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: an oath to the United States, although they're not always
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: well-educated and things like that. There is huge officer core.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: And the question is, would they follow an illegal order?
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: They've been asked that many, many times. Some of them
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: have been evasive. So, I mean, I've digressed. But what
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: I'm getting at here is that the timing of January
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: 10th extension is a little bit troublesome to me because
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: it coincides with this other agenda of the transfer, orderly
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: transfer of power.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So I guess the takeaway is that you hear
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: a little echo.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Okay. Oh, I don't hear anything.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: All right. Perfect.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: So I guess the takeaway is that at least the
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: two sides agree to talk. I mean, the ja-ja is
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: better than war, like Churchill used to say.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: Ja-ja is better than bang-bang.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and we have, we got pandas, so that's something.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: But, I just, do you think at least there's a
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: bottom being put, like a floor being put in now
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: for the Sino-American, for relationship?
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I do. And this goes to this issue
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: about transactionalism. Donald Trump needs something from China, and therefore
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: he's looking to make a trade. He separates, he thinks
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: that his personal relationship with Xi Jinping somehow is the
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: stabilizing force in a situation where you have, you know,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: two countries who are opposite, you know, basically not in turmoil, basically,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: in essence, because the United States wants to remain a hegemon.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: This is something that Donald Trump learned from real estate.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, by day, you have these New York real
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: estate companies battling out, trying to get pieces of land
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: and things like that. And then the very same people
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: would come together at their private clubs and have drinks
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: and kind of, you know, like, oh, what are you doing? Oh, yeah,
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I see you're messing with my stuff. Um, but the,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: you know, it was all kind of very civilized and
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: he really aspires to that. Um, you know, look, let's,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: let's look what he's done lately. I mean, who, who,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: who are the closest people to the United States? I mean,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: closest countries, I would say Canada geographically, uh, also in
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: terms of support and then, uh, great Britain, um, you know,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: the special relationship going back, uh, even before world war two.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: So you have the situation where you have these two very,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: very close entities. Well, he's gone to trade war with Canada.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: They now, I mean, the majority of them despise America,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: especially Donald Trump. I don't think they despise Americans, but
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: it all kind of gets rolled up. I don't like
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: your leader, and therefore, if you support him, I don't
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: like you. And then Great Britain. Well, he was in
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Ireland suggesting that Ireland unite. I'm sure this was not
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: exactly what they were looking for in Whitehall. And then
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: he decided to throw a little more gas on the fire,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: simultaneously saying that the Malvinas should be reunited with Argentina.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: Once again, gratuitous. Neither of these issues have anything to
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: do with the United States. In theory, if he doesn't,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Even if he thinks those things, he can send a
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: private note to the new prime minister. He can do
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: lots of things, but you don't put it out there.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: It is very, very difficult and awkward for these relationships.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: But he seems to be burning bridges left, right, and center.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: On the other hand, America's supposed foes, Putin and China,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, and Xi, Oh, you know, he's lovey-dovey. You know,
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: we can get together. Let me invite your representative to
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: the G20 finance ministers meeting. And by the way, I
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: want you to come to the G20 meeting that's coming up.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: So Donald Trump responds to perceived strength. He likes to
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: hang around people. He sees the big guys. All right.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: He says, oh, we're all he thinks that by being
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: with them. He increases his own stature. I'm sure it's
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: occurred to most people by now that he has a
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: chronic self-worth issue that he covers up with bravado and
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: this kind of stuff. It's just kind of the way
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: he grew up. Going into Manhattan, coming from Queens, being
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: the kid from the poor side of the tracks, being
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: laughed at. not invited to the parties, being cut out socially,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: being regarded as this kind of nouveau riche, just, you know,
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: he's just a figure of fun when he'd show up
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: in his limousines trying to impress girls and these kids
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: whose fathers really ran big things. And he thought they
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: should like him. That's what he wanted. He wants to
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: be liked. We all do, I'm not saying he's alone,
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: but I mean, he's covered up this with this kind
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: of perpetual braggadocio, everything. I mean, he's just, anything he
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: touches is great, anything he doesn't. I mean, look what
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: he said about AI. You don't need to control AI
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: as long as you have a high intelligent president like
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: me in charge of things. He doesn't have the first
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: clue of how AI works, all right? And I mean that.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you went into his office today and say,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: tell me, what do you know about AI? Well, a
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: lot of business, a lot of money, and he'd talk
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: like this, but he says, okay, tell us about how
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: an algorithm is put together. He wouldn't be able to
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: tell you. He doesn't really understand it. He understands it's hot.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: He understands that it's very influential. But, you know, the
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: way he talks about it, We're going to win the race. Well,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: there's no finish line. Get it? There's no finish line.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: How do you win a race that continues forever? All right.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: You can be competitive. And if you talked about it,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: it says, well, we need to be competitive. We want
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: to break new ground. We want to make sure that
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: this is used in a responsible way. No, but he didn't.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: He says, we're going to win. I don't know how
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: you're going to win. All right. Now, Xi Jinping, on
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: the other hand, was talking in the terms of this
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: is a powerful new force. It has to be regulated.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: It has to work with the people's interests, not against them.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: And guess what? The United States, Europe, China, Russia, everybody
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: has to come together and start figuring out how they
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: can make sure the inevitable rogue entities that try to
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: use this for harm, that you can protect your people
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: from them at best you can. And that means having
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: global standards and understandings, protocols, policies, and you can't have
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: separate ones. Right now you have three major different ones.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: You have the EU, which concentrates on personal privacy and
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: bureaucracy as if A bunch of bureaucrats are going to
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: stop somebody from hacking into the government. Don't. I'm a bureaucrat. Please.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I have rules and laws. It's laughable. Then you have
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump saying, wide open, we're win competition. And then
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: you have China saying, look, as it said, this has
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: to be according to policy. We need to work together.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: There's potential here, but there's also potential for good, but
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: also potential for harm. Instead of having three separate approaches,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: you need to have one. And that was one of
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: the messages that Xi was coming. It's not, he didn't
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: say you have to adopt our policies. What he said
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: is we have to make an agreement to protect not
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: only our countries, but the world. Because remember, if you
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: do not create global policies that can be somewhat enforced
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: and have some teeth, all right, the bad actors simply,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: you know, They won't go to China or the U.S.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: or Europe. They will simply go to someplace where either
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: they're hidden, and they continue to develop their agents and
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: do their nefarious activities, or they go to some place
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: that says, yeah, well, we don't have any of this
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: stuff and we need it, so therefore we'll allow you
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: to come in here and do what you want as
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: long as we can share in it, something like this.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: So this is a big problem. It's just like climate change.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: It's like healthcare issues. This is something that affects everybody.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: And the simple message is if we don't plan and
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: work together, it will create chaos. So that was one
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: of the big messages. I think that was a part
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: of this.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but except I think that probably flew right over
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's head.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: He mentioned afterwards that that was a hoax. Controlling AI
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: is a hoax. Everything's a hoax. He's the biggest hoax,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: but yeah, everyone else is a hoax. I mean, one
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: of the things you should learn about watching Donald Trump
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: is that he always accuses others of the things that
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: he is doing. Remember back in the day when he said, Oh,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: you know, he'll start a war with Iran in order
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: to get reelected. Who started a war with Iran? And
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: fortunately for him, it's not working the way he anticipated.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: It was not an easy win like Venezuela and things
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: like that. But, you know, I'm being very negative, but
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: there were a lot of positive things that came out
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: of this. And I'm happy to talk about those as well.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's talk about positive things. I mean, so pandas, pandas, positive.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, who doesn't love, I mean, everyone loves
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: a cute, adorable panda and this is really important in
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: the sense that it creates a thought. This is the
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: first time that pandas have been returned to the U.S.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: COVID was in between. I think there's a global recognition
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: that people became isolated during COVID and move around. And
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: now it's opening up. Americans are coming to China in
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: greater numbers. They see a country that is not evil,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: which is not depressed. It's not run by authoritarian goons.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: It's a place where you can walk around at 4 a.m.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: in the morning, whether you're a woman, a child, or
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: an elderly man, and just enjoy life. They put tremendous
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: amounts of effort into, as you know, you are here
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: for a while, and you saw how they're changing the
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: urban environment. Quite different from when I came here in 2000. Then,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: you know, parks consisted of a few kind of like
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: exercise things, but it was all concrete, very little green things.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Now you have these lush parks and river walks. They're
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: activated with restaurants and cafes, and you see People, I mean, everybody,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: the whole community out there, young people with their mothers
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: and fathers, elderly people, see people swimming in the river.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to go that far for myself, but
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: that river, kind of like, whoa, that looks like human sludge,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: but that was way before. That was way before. Now
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: it's quite clean. They put a lot of effort into
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: doing that, but those memories kind of linger. Mosquitoes and refuse,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: because it used to be kind of an open sewer.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Now it's just this incredibly lush, beautiful community asset that
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: makes living in the city much more enjoyable. So, I mean,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: China's paying a tremendous amount of attention to that and
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: these pandas are an expression of that. Once you see
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: a panda, you don't think to yourself, oh, evil people
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: have sent this panda to charm me. They say, oh,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: it's cute. Well, maybe we should go to China and
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: go to Chengdu and see the pandas there. Maybe that
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: would be cool. And when they're doing that, they experience
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: high-speed trains, which we don't have in the United States.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: They see a safe environment. They see roads without massive
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: and they see people who are actually pretty happy. That's
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: not to say that China doesn't have lots of problems,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: but that's one aspect. Another aspect I'd like to talk
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: about is Xi, and it's along the same way, people-to-people diplomacy.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: He said 100,000 students come to China. He's trying to
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: encourage more interaction between people. And I think this is really, really,
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: really important because You know, young people can be easily
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: manipulated by the press and what is around them into believing,
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: you know, a story, a narrative. But if they go
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: somewhere and they see for themselves and they make their
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: own judgment, those narratives come back and they are actually
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: much more powerful. Because if you know somebody or let's say,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: you know, three or four people who went to China
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: and they all come back and they say the same thing.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: It wasn't what I expected. People were super nice. I
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: enjoyed myself. It wasn't about just seeing the sights. It
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: was just experiencing something that we just weren't told about.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: And I think that that's really important. I mean, Carl,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: the politics aren't going to change. Despite Donald Trump being
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: very nice and hospitable to Xi Jinping, the Pentagon, CIA,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: State Department haven't changed their ideas about China. They still
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: see it as an existential threat, one that they would
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: like to contain. question is how. Eldridge Colby says, well,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: we should dominate the West, interfere with China's energy flows,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: and try to control the trade choke points like the
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: Straits of Malacca so that we interfere with China's ability
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: to import raw materials, which is absolutely necessary, and then
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: export value-added goods. So this is still there. Nothing has changed.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: The question is, What can change? And the positive things
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: are obviously the economics. It's not just the rare earths.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: I always tell people, I give them a challenge. If
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: you live in a city, I would like you to
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: try to just spend one day not touching anything made
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: in China. Try to have a normal day. If you
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: go hole up on a piece of earth in a
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: park and do nothing, no, okay, that doesn't count. I'm
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: just saying going about a normal day. Or just count
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: the number of things. Every screw and bolt, practically, that
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: is put into something, glass, plastic, then you talk about
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: all the things you have, the silverware you eat with.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: It's made in China. China has started dominating low margin
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: businesses that America and Europe didn't want to do anymore
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: because there just wasn't enough margin. Making 3%, 4% was
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: not enough. If you go to a bank in the
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: United States or Europe and say, hey, I want to
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: start a business. Hey, what's your margin? Oh, 3%. What?
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Get out of here. What kind of psychopath are you?
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: If you want 3% invested in bonds, why would you
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: invest money? Get out of here. You're crazy, right? But
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: in China, they said, well, this is business and we
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: can do it. And if we have 60%, 70% of
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: the market and we have 3% returns, that's actually better
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: than having 10% of the market or 5% of the
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: market and having a 10% return in terms of the
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: actual amount of money that is returned. China didn't have
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: the new technology, but over the years, they started investing
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: in all sorts of things where there were economies of scale.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: That means the more I make, the cheaper it is.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: They have become really good at it, and they haven't stopped.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: They continue to improve it through logistics, through just-in-time management,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: new processes, new materials, and they're intensely focused on the consumer.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: And they have a lot of competition. China is insanely competitive.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: If you're doing something and you're making money, the only
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: thing you're going to be certain of is you're going
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: to have 10 competitors within a very, very, very short while.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: And they're going to drive your price down. So your
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: only way to stay ahead of them is to innovate,
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: to have a better product at a lower price. So
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: this is what has been driving China. So all this
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: stuff about, oh, you know, over capacity and things like that. No,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: it's just simply the internal machinations of competing in China.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: But economics binds these countries together as well as the
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: rest of the world. And, you know, the U.S. imported $ 4. 3
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: trillion worth of goods in 2025, net services. They didn't
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: do so because they were available in the U.S. at
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: a cheaper price. did so because they don't make them anymore.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: And if they didn't, even if it wasn't buying from China,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: they have to buy from somewhere else. So it doesn't
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: affect the trade deficit. The only thing that affects it
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: is if you're buying it at a higher, the same
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: things at a higher price, then of course you're increasing
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: the amount you pay. And obviously that can affect the
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: trade deficit upwards, assuming that there's money, people have the
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: disposable income to make the choice to buy it. So economics,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: very important. It's intertwined, as you say, as I always
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: like to say, it's a Gordian knot. This was the
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: knot that Hercules was supposed to undo, but basically it
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: was this huge ball of twine and it had different parts.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: But if you, you know, if you tugged at one end,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: you saw a string and you try to unravel it,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: what would happen? It would just tighten the ball of twine.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: So it was seen as an impossible puzzle. And the
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: goal of this particular summit from both sides, wasn't that
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: they were going to untangle and solve the Gordian Knot,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: it was that they were going to manage it so
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: that it didn't cause harm to either side. And I
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: think that was extremely successfully done, but it was based
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: on this whole issue of intertwined economics, because the Gordian
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Knot is really the story about what the globalization has
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: done in terms of supply chains and manufacturing. The second
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: part that's very positive is the people-to-people diplomacy. And we
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: talked about pandas. We talked about having students come forward.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: But this is really one of the main areas where
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: you can make progress. When people have an experience and
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: then they develop a narrative that they tell to others,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: others come. And if they verify that, that leads to
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: a change in perceptions. about the country. It's harder to
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: see somebody as evil when you shared a bowl of
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: noodles with them and laughed and made jokes and they
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: told you about their problems, which are exactly the same
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: as your problems, and you laughed and did similar jokes
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: and things like this. Yeah, no, you don't think to yourself, yeah,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: I need to go back and kill those people. You
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: start to think, well, I think we're all the same.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: And I think that is really an important key in
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: a world where you have many, many countries. And they're
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: now with a multipolar, multilateral system. You need to know
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: more about countries. You know, Malaysia. I mean, people in
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: the West assume that China knows everything about Malaysia. Malaysia
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: knows everything about China. Same with Indonesia or the Philippines.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: They don't. They're very separate cultures and China's at fault
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: for not pushing it more. Now people like yourself are
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: trying to introduce, um, you know, trying to bridge the
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: gap in understanding, but this is something that has to
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: continue going on. It's not just through podcasts. Um, you
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: need exchanges of students and China is more than happy, uh,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: to share technology and to jointly develop it. Um, And
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: I think that's very important. I was a little dismayed
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: that recently the Chinese government said, well, we don't want
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: people with high technical skills going outside the country unless
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: we monitor them. They need to apply. I know why
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: they're doing that. It's really a reaction to the U.S.,
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: a certain amount of Europe. But the fact is it
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: sends maybe a chilling note. Places in Africa, South America,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: Southeast Asia, where they, in the stands, where they were thinking, okay,
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: China's willing to share technology. And that's a very, very
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: different model from that that's been engaged by the U.S.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: and EU, whereas we develop it and then we extract
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: as much value as we possibly can from you based
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: on your need. So the people-to-people diplomacy, really, really important.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: And it's long term, and it's going to take a
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: long term to go on. Knowledge about each other, about
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: different countries. And I don't mean just the language. You know,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: if you go to America and you say, well, I
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: learned English. So how much of what is said do
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: you actually understand? Have you read the Bible? Have you read,
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: you know, a hundred great books? Do you understand American philosophy, history?
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: All right, literature? Do you understand religion? why people think
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: the way they do. Until that happens, you're really a
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: little bit blind. You're assuming you know more than you
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: actually do. And the same thing is true in China.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: If you haven't had a basic education in Chinese, the
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: language is really key, but you also need to read
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: the literature and the history, how Chinese approach things, the
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: classic novels. And I'm not saying this just because, oh, well,
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: you know, this is esoteric. You're supposed to get to
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: know each other and love each other. No, it actually
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: has a very, very strong business element. Today, because of
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: the digital tools, you can locate potential clients for a
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: service or something good, something you produce. Let's say you
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: produce honey and your honey, your honeybees feast on some
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: local flowers. And as a result, your honey is very,
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: very special. Well, in the past, your, uh, Your only
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: alternative was to sell your very special honey to a
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: big honey group who would just mix it all together
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: and you would just be munged together. In fact, they
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: tried to get rid of anything that was too special because,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: you know, that's not what they do. They just blend
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: it together to create something that's honey, that's uniform, and
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: they can sell in grocery stores around the world. But today,
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: there are a lot of people who like honey and
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: appreciate it. And they have groups online and you can
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: locate them. And you can say, I have this wonderful honey.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Would you like to try it? Then the logistics are
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: there for you to send your honey to that country.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: And there are payment platforms that allow you to receive
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: a direct swap currency. I give you a price and
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: you send me the money and that's it. There's no lawyers,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: no banks, no letters of credit, no specialists. But I
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: won't know. I can get deeper and develop my business
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: the more I know about the country and the people
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: and their tastes. That is a further opportunity. There is
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: one pattern, and that is AI is helping with that.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: If I want to send honey to China, are there
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: rules and regulations about what I have to do in
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: terms of the processing so that I can send it
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: to China? And China has a interest or every country
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: has an interest in making sure that products coming into
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: it are in fact safe. You don't want people sending
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: stuff that's poisonous, obviously, or could, it doesn't meet health standards,
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: et cetera. So, but those can be solved. You can,
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm a honey things as well. I have
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: an order from Kazakhstan. Gee, I don't know anything about Kazakhstan. Well,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: let's see here. It's a large order. What do I
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: have to do to make sure that I can send
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: it to Tajikistan? What certificates or whatever do I need?
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: In the past, you'd have to hire somebody who could
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: tell you all that information. But today, you can literally
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: go online and you can get everything you need within
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: a few seconds. And then you can make a decision.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: This is the market I want to go. But once
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: you've gone into that market, the more you know about it,
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: the more opportunities there are. One of the big positive
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: things that I see coming out of all of this
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: is that one of the most productive economic areas, small
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: and medium-sized business entities, are on the verge of a
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: golden era, an era where they can not only sell locally, nationally,
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: but internationally, and get more money for what they sell,
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: and that more money is disposable income, and they produce jobs,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: And remember, all big companies started out as small companies.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: And the vitality of most nations, for instance, China, 99%
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: of all enterprises registered are small and medium-sized business entities.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: You go to the Middle East, and it's 92% on average.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: These are the companies that actually make a difference. These
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: are mom-and-pop things. They're nimble. They respond to markets and
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: not Not all of them are successful, but you're increasing
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: their chances of success by giving them more markets and
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: allowing them to do that. So I think that is
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: a really positive because if I'm doing business with somebody,
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: I don't necessarily want to go to war with them
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: because that closes out my market. So I think there
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: are tremendous opportunities that are opening up. The only thing
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: preventing it is perhaps kind of an old idea about,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: you know, if I can't dominate you, I have to
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: destroy you. That I don't think is a very useful
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: way of going around the world, going about the world.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: And it certainly has led to lots and lots of problems.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: So there is a very bright side to this. It's
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: just that we're contending with a lot of changes, both
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: in terms of politics, ideologies, and what people believed past, um, economics, uh,
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: in terms of supply chains and how, you know, how
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: those are managed and, um, made more efficient. And then
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: finally technology, uh, which is really changing, um, so many aspects.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: It will change politics. It will change, uh, social, um,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: things that already has and certainly has huge effect on economics.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: So we're at a convergence of a lot of different, um, currents.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: And of course, the waters get very choppy when you
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: have these currents kind of all meeting together. But hopefully
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: we can get through the rapids and find some calmer
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: waters sometime in the future.
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: Well, that got my hopes up.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: And then I remember we are still in the midst
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: of a big rapids known as the Iran war right now.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: And that war has no.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Even the Ukraine war, which Trump pledged to end within
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: 24 hours of getting elected, is still dragging on for
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: some reason.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: Well, he said before he was elected because it would
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: only take a day. He planned to solve it before
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: he got elected, but then it was like after he
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: got elected. Now, we don't just, you know, they don't.
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: Talk about it.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't even talk about it. And that's That's
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: the worrying part because now it looks like these things,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: these wars are set to be a little more permanent,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: including the energy shortage. It doesn't seem like a blip
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: on the radar anymore. because I just don't see the U.S.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: giving up on that zero-sunk mentality anytime soon. What really is,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: it's about defending U.S. supremacy in the Persian Gulf, in
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: the Middle East, or in Eastern Europe. But these have
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: severe economic consequences for the rest of the world. Or
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: also for the United States itself. How is Trump going
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: to square the circle? He's having an election coming up
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: this November. I don't know how much a boost he's
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: going to get from the Xi Jinping visit in polls,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: but going into it looks pretty dire for his party. Like,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: I don't, okay, go ahead, sorry.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: No, I'm agreeing with you. I used to be involved
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: in running elections at the local and state level, and
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: I participated in national elections. I can tell you he's
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: going to lose very, very badly. The question is, what
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: does he do afterwards? He loses, there's talk now about
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House who has a formality of
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: just swearing in new congressmen. he could refuse. And then
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: the duty falls to the clerk. But then there's this
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: idea that he could fire the clerk. In the absence
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: of a clerk, there's no prescribed method to swear in
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: the new Congress people. So, I mean, there's a lot
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: of kind of odd little things that they're doing. As
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: I said, Pete Hegseth is trying to create a group
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: of generals by using this battlefield promotion.
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: Idea.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: You have ICE, which increasingly looks just like a modern
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: day Gestapo running around. They're loyal to, in theory, to
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump. They're hated by the vast majority of people. Yeah,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: there are a lot of troubling signs. The way he's
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: reacted has been contrary to the way most politicians would.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: You know, going to trade war with Canada, which is not,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, no one in America dislikes Canadians. And, you know,
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: threatening their environment, saying he's going to make them a
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: 51st state. But, you know, even more recently, these tariffs
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: are going to hit American jobs, especially in the automotive industry. 90,000
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: in Canada, supposedly 60,000 in the U.S., That's not the
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: kind of news that I want to generate when I'm
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: going into an election. The optics of the Xi meeting,
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: it might have diverted attention from the Epstein files, from
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: his corruption, probes into his and his family's corruption, the
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: failure of so many of his policies, $ 6 a gallon diesel.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: these are all things that were obscured or at least
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: put onto the second and third pages. The press willingly
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: followed him around as he had tea with Xi Jinping
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: and his wife. But, you know, it's day by day.
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, you can't get rid of the Epstein files
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: and continue the policies that he's had that is ruining
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: the American economy. They don't go away. People notice very...
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: And critically, his own base is apoplectic about the wars
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: because they said he wouldn't do it. And he did
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: not follow through on his promise to bring down prices.
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Prices are higher than ever. They're not gaining jobs. There's
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: not things. Now, on the other hand, the corporations are
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: reporting huge earnings. The question is, how long is that
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: sustainable with this kind of debt? with further hollowing out
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: the American economy in terms of industrialization. The chip thing
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: isn't working. These factories are not producing the high-end chips
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: that are capable of supplying the United States, and they
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: cost a lot more because they're based in the U.S.,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: and a lot of them are subject to delays. Now
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: you have these data centers, and once again, popular point
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: of view, he should be saying, well, I have questions
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: about data center because they use a lot of water
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: and they also use a tremendous amount of energy, in essence,
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: competing for local rates. And that is a real, real, real,
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: real issue for, you know, this is something in local communities,
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: wherever they are, they said, we don't want them. And
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: he's going against it and saying, you know, you're stupid
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: and all this kind of stuff. But these are the
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: people who support him. So he's fracturing his own base
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: as you go along. The other huge issue that is
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: pending is, of course, the AI bubble. You have the
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: people who make the chips, the people who are creating
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: these data centers, and the AI companies all investing in
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: each other to raise their stocks. But the problem is
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: it's not sustainable. There aren't enough profits in it. And
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: a lot of companies that are rushed into AI are
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: now rushing out of it. They said, no, we thought
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: we could fire half of our workforce and be more
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: efficient and respond to the competition, set the line. Instead,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: they found that AI has its limits. In the end,
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: people have to understand AI is not this rational creature.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: They think of Hal or the Avengers, Tony Stark's little...
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: alter ego who runs around and tells them stuff and
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: is very logical. AI is a word association game that
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: is governed by algorithms. It's not about logic or values
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: or anything like that. What they do is just word
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: association in essence. So there are limits to what it
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: can do. The agents are a little bit different. These
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: are things that act autonomously. The problem is they act autonomously,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: and therefore they can't be controlled. And we can talk
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: to the Australians about that. Their medical system was hacked
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: by an independent entity. No one told it to go
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: hack them. It just did it. And this was out
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: of the sandbox, and it was a little time ago. So,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: you know, this idea that we're catching them. Now, remember,
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: an AI isn't like a person. where it can concentrate
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: on one thing at a time. And AI can concentrate
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: on all 195 countries simultaneously. It can be doing hacks
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: on all of them at the same time in multiple directions.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: So this should be a little bit scary. The problem
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: is when the cards come crashing down, because China's approach
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: to AI has been completely different. The US is extractive.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: We say we develop with, we own it, and if
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: you want the benefits of it, you pay us. And
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: based on that, they had huge valuations. Then the Chinese
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: came along and they said, no, we're going to have
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: a central library and anyone can use it. And we'll
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: give out these models that you can adapt for your
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: own countries for free. The only thing you have is
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: your operating expenses and your developmental expenses. Well, let's see.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Free versus very expensive. Which ones are the exciting? Saudi
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: Arabia had a lot of money. They chose a Chinese
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: system that they're developing themselves. And, wow. Cost was zero. Free.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: Underlying model was absolutely free and they now have a
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: full stack system. Full stack means that they can It
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: can do all the processing that they wanted to do
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: and they can continue to have their algorithms put in
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: place as well as creating agents that can automate things.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: There are tremendous things that can happen because of AI.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: If you've ever stood in line trying to get a
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: driver's license or your birth certificate or, you know, anything
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: bureaucratic involving a lot of paperwork, AI can solve that.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: You don't even have to go there. Once it's verified
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: your identity, basically you show up at the airport and
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: your ticket's there. In the meantime, it's telling you it's
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: delayed or not delayed, how to get from A to B,
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: where the best drop-off point is, call a car for you,
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: and things that can save a tremendous amount of time.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: If you start looking at the productivities That will increase
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: because you're not wasting time doing all these kind of
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: mundane tasks or wondering what's going to happen or showing
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: up to the airport an hour early because you don't
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: know what's going on or sitting there because the plane
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: was delayed. because you didn't know and things like this.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: Business trips. AI is one of the things that not
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: only gets you there, but let's say you have a
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: meeting across town. Well, you don't know the city. What
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: should you do? You can call something like DD, which
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: can estimate the time and things like that. Or you
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: can have your AI agent say, look, book a car,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: make sure that I'm there at five minutes or ten
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: minutes before the meeting. And the algorithm will say, okay,
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: ten minutes, I'll do these things. Safety margin, okay, leave
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: at such and such a time. The car will be downstairs,
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: here's the license plate. Hop in and away you go.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: It might even be driverless. The amount of time that's
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: wasted in between stuff and minor stuff is massive. And
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: if you can save that, productivity goes up. That means
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: that you need fewer people to do it. Now, the
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: way most people look at that is, oh, fewer people,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: I'm out of a job. What am I going to do? Well,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: what you're going to do is something different. You have
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: to be trained for this new environment. And the countries
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: that train their people, give them the tools to adapt
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: to the new economy, will obviously be the ones who
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: benefit the most from it. the things are going to
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: move more towards creative things. AIs can do things, but
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: they have to be prompted to do it. Who's going
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: to prompt them? And that's where people come in. You
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: and I can have a discussion. We could have two
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: AI-generated entities having a discussion, but there is not going
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: to be It'll follow certain lines. It might get a
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: little weird. Not that face-to-face meetings like this can't get weird.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: But it's not individualized. It's kind of collectivized and randomized.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: I was talking, I think I brought this up last time,
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: I was talking to a very bright MIT graduate who
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: has a master's from there. And she wrote a paper
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: and she says the problem with AI, if a million
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: people ask it the same question, It's going to give
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: approximately the same answer, which means that people are going
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: to be moving in the same direction. Let's say they
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: ask about investment advice. Well, the AI is going to
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: weigh what it knows and then make a recommendation and
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: those recommendations going. So if in fact any of that
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: information is false, all right, or it's subject to change
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: and something does change, You have a million people who
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: use that advice to make things. So you've exacerbated your problem.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: They wouldn't have done it otherwise. So you're creating new
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: channels out there, which could be misleading to people. So,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: you know, I've always said, you know, every solution is great.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: It solves a problem. But every solution also creates a
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: new set of problems. And this is very, very true
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: of AI. And it's not just employment, but in terms
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: of how people use it, how they rely on it,
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: things like that. Some things, absolutely reliable. Book me a
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: train ticket. That's fine. Tell me the future. That's probably
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: going to be a little bit of things. And if
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: people try to rely on what an AI tells them
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: about the future, and they're all doing this, 8 billion
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: people ask their AI, what's the future going to be?
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: The interesting part of that is that some of it could,
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: in fact, be self-fulfilling, which is kind of an odd thing.
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: It's creating the reality through narratives and perception. That's what
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: politics is about, I guess. So, as I said, it's
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: a brave new world. We're confronting a lot of different currents.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: Technology is one of them. It's just creating new problems
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: that we have to address, but the idea that we're
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: going to put the genie back in the bottle? No.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: If you say, well, we'll just stop. How would that
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: work exactly? Okay, you stop, theoretically, and it's been known
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: in the past when some of these big entities tell
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: the rivals, oh, we should all stop. Meanwhile, in the
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: back room, they're furiously trying to get ahead. A little
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: bit of a trust deficit there. But let's say you
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: have somebody who's very bright, who doesn't really care too
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: much about humanity, doesn't have a moral code or whatever,
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: and he just simply goes, digs a basement, goes in
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: his basement, sets up a rig and starts developing on
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: his own. Or goes to a country or just hides
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: somewhere else. How are you gonna stop that? Literally, how
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: are you gonna do that? I don't think it's really
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: possible And so I think it's better to guide and
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: regulate and set standards and create protocols. The protocols are
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: very important because if I can't access something and I'm not,
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: in order to get involved, I have to go through
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: these protocols. The protocols are about verification that I am
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: entitled to use it. So you can keep a lot out.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: The other part is data. We have a problem today
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: in that 40% of everything online has been generated by AI,
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: and that percentage is going to continue to increase. It
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: is not reliable information. It's not reliable data. It's extended data.
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: A lot of it's a little crazy. So data is
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: going to be more important, and there has to be
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: a means by which countries come together and say, look,
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: we have to have verifiable data. We have to make
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: sure that Privacy is protected. We need to make sure
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: that our national security is protected. But there's also pressing
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: problems like health, the climate that we have to work
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: on together, because if we don't, we all lose. So
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: can it be done? Yeah, I've been working on a
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: way to do that. It's fairly simple. It mostly guarantees
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: that you have a repository of data that can only
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: be queried not copied. And it can't be manipulated inside.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: You can collect data. It's kind of a one-way source.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: After it's been verified to be correct, then it goes
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: into the data pool. But no one gets in there
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: and gets to copy things and see what's there. You
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: can just query, I need information about healthcare cases involving
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: these symptoms because I'm looking for a possible pandemic beginning
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: I want to see where it's spreading. Yes, that's valuable information.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: You don't need to know the names, all right, or
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: where they live or anything like that. Just specifically where
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: they live, geographically, obviously, in terms of how the disease
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: may be spreading, possible ways of figuring out, you know,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: what kind of spread is it? Is it just people
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: cough and you get it through the air, or is
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: it exchanged through fluids, or what, or just germs on
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: the side of a desk? These are things that can
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: actually help us. And as well as solving medical issues,
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: things like this, the more information we have, the more
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: accurate it's going to be. So lots of possibilities. Like
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: anything else, it's like nuclear materials. You can make bombs.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: You can also make nuclear magnetic resonance machines, which allow
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: you to peer inside the body and determine what's there,
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: especially when it comes to cancers and broken bones and
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: issues with tissues and things like that. So, you know,
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: it's how we use it. And I think there's all
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: sorts of opportunities, especially in education. Today, we, you know,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: everything's based around a test. Well, if you're not feeling
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: well on the test or you don't do well on tests,
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: it doesn't mean you're a worthless person. It just means
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: the system has failed to evaluate you properly. But imagine
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: you have teachers who ask you questions, they engage with you,
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: but you learn from an AI system that allows you
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: to learn at your own pace, meaning it keeps asking
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: you questions until it's clear that you've mastered the subject
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: before you go on to the next one. This means
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: that people who learn very fast or in different ways
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: can do that. They can be a very effective tool
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: for teaching people. And then you can, you know, your
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: teacher is apprised of what you're doing and your progress,
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: and they can interact with you much more effectively. So
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: it's not about getting rid of teachers. In fact, with
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: the productivity gains, it might be a situation where we
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: have more teachers, more people who are guiding the future
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: into being better. The other thing that AIA does entities
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: like that can do is they can record exactly who
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: you are in the sense that how you approach problems,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: your different abilities, and that those can be used to
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: help not only verify that you should be in different programs,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: but also they can be the key to a much
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: more productive society so that you not discarding people who
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: for whatever reason are not good at tests. I was
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: very good at tests, but I knew people who were
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: not good at tests who are actually much, much brighter
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: than me, but they were discarded or they were marginalized
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: because they weren't doing the test. Why is the test
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: The issue, why does that tell anybody who you are?
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: It doesn't. It only amplifies one side of you, so
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: there's opportunity. But there's also values. Teaching should be about values.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, one of the reasons the world is the
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: way it is today is because of this maximum that
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: was handed down, that companies should maximize shareholder value. But
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: they don't say what that means. So for the people
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: who are on the inside, who are managing on a
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: day-to-day basis, who get bonuses based on their yearly performance,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: maximizing value means maximizing my bonus, right? But the company
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: itself is composed of people who provide goods or services.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: They have a long-term interest in who's watching out for
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: that and who is making moral decisions. You know, we
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: saw in Hollywood, You know, it was, my goodness, you know,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: this guy was doing unspeakable things to plants because women
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: were saying no to him. And this was a part
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: of a pattern of practice that had been happening for
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: years and years. You know, the casting couch, people used to,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: you know, make jokes about it and things like that,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: but it turned out to be very, very real. Are
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: these the type of people that should be in charge
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: of things? I mean, if you had an AI... that
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: captured everything that Donald Trump did and didn't do and
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: his ability to reason and value, do you think he
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: would be president? Now, there always is not a panacea.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: There are always dangers to that. Lists can be created
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: of people who might be problematic or who might not
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: think the way I think. And, you know, maybe we
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: should eliminate them and things like that. There are always problems,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: but you cannot pretend to stop The tide. The tide
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: comes in, the tide goes out. And, you know, we
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: have to realize that, I don't know if you want
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: to call it progress, but change is dynamic. And we
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: constantly have to adapt. And adapting well and preparing ourselves
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: and our children and grandchildren for this kind of change.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: This is really what life should be about. Try to
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: make things better. Not this idea that if I make
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: it better for me, it doesn't matter about anybody else.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: I know people who actually have told me, your problem
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: is you don't realize this is a horrible world. If
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: you want to survive, you've got to be more horrible
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: than everybody else. I mean, I look at them and
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: I think to myself, I feel sorry for them. If
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: you really believe that, you can't trust anybody, your wife
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: or your children or anybody else. You can't trust society.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: You've got to believe that everyone's out to get you,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: and therefore you get to them first. That is a
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: prison and a place that I never want to be.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: I'm not trying to be Pollyannish about this. I'm just
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: saying that if you cannot be hopeful and helpful, you're
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: really not human.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: Well, on that very hopeful note, thank you, Einar, for sharing.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: uh for come making the time you speak to us
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: like hour just flew by and i feel like you
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: know it's just uh you know i i just gained
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: another uh free education every time i speak to you
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: you weren't.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: Selective about your tutors i mean it's so.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: Misunderstood i.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: You know, I go to lectures, I talk about this stuff. And,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: you know, you see these people and there are all
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: these buzzwords they're throwing at you. And he says, well,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: I say, what do you think AI does? Albert, oh, well,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: you know, clearly within a few seconds they have no clue.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: And I'm not talking about some man on the street.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about investment bankers, you know, people– Even consultants
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: who say they're all about AI, it's just a jumble
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: of buzzwords put together to prevent you from understanding they
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: don't know anything. It's quite amazing.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: And for them to access your money. For those people,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: that's what it really is about.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: I'm honest, John. The AI salesman. This is a slightly
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: used AI. Only used on Sundays by a little old lady.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: Trust me.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no. Well, I understand people are trying to get
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: through life. I'm not trying to minimize that. I mean,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: we're all struggling to get by. But the issue is
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: you've got so many people who are just hopping on
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: the bandwagon without any idea of what they're talking about.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: To come here to speak to my audience, if people
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: want to find you, Einar, where would they go?
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: Substack, Asian narratives. I write things and I put them
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: there and things like that. It's a lot along the
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: lines of what we talk about and things like that. Increasingly,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: you can't separate politics and economics, but I do believe
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: that we should be looking more at the economics and
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: also cultural people-to-people things as the more positive sides. And
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: I really want to be much more positive. I don't
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: think complaining and calling people names, although I do do
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: it because it's kind of funny, is going to create change.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Real change comes from hard work and from shared interests.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: And I think there's plenty of those around that we
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: need to, like your podcast, tries to pull people together,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: have them understand things more. Create bridges, not walls.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: Well said.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: Well said.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: Thank you again, Einar, for making your time to speak
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: to us. And for my.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: Audience, make sure you go follow Einar, go to his
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: sub stack, Asia Narratives, and subscribe.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: Thanks, everyone, for listening. Until next time.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: Bye-bye.