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NFL Week 4 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites Podcast, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook, part
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: of the Action Network. Your Favorites Trio is back. I'm
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Brandon Kravitz, joined by the wonderfully insightful and talented Stuckey
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: and Kendra Middleton. On today's episode, we've got our plant
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the Flag game for week four? Who are we in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: on early? A breakdown of the top storylines, and of
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: course the main event evans Tuesday primer. We cannot live
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: and breathe without it. An update for the schedule. This week,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: we'll have our typical Thursday show where we lock in
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: our best bets. Our Three Musketeers parlay, which I am
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: hearing from production is losing its name because we haven't
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: landed on a winner just yet. But we have no
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: show Sunday night for a recap this week, but we
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: got you covered today and Thursday, and then of course
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: back at it next week. For five. Kendra is headed
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: to San Francisco. That's part of the reason we don't
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: have a Sunday night show. You're gonna see what could
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: be Mac Jones versus Trevor Lawrence. Who knows? But how
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: excited are you for your trip to the West Coast?
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Is it bad that I wanted to be brock Party,
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: even if that means that the Jags get their asspeed
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: just so I don't want to watch Mac Jones.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I figured that that might be the case.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: I would much rather even if I would rather lose
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: to the brock Party led forty nine Ers in a
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: horrible fashion once again, because every time I go walk
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: to the forty nine Ers and the Jaguars, that's what happens.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Then watch Mac Jones at all for any reason, especially
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: if he's going to beat them.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So before we get into any football talk, I think
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: you might be the best person to help us out here.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Stucky, how informed you are on the rapture,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: but apparently that's happening today. My wife informs me of
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: this last night, and I thought, Okay, what am I
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: supposed to do with that? In from I haven't been
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: raptured yet. I also don't know exactly what that means,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: so fill us in. I mean, you got the waxing
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: waning moon paid off last night with Jared Goff and
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. So if there's some way I can
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: weave this into my Week four betting card, let me know.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: But what am I looking at here? What does this mean?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: What am I supposed to do with this?
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: People were so mean to me on the internet about
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: my waxing carrescent moon take, and I would like to
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: tell all of you to suck me. Okay, it worked out,
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: and it worked out big time. Anytime there's a waxing
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: crescent moon and the lions are playing from now on,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: that's my Jesus Christ.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: That is that is my bread and butter. That is
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: what is going on for me. However, I'll see you
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: guys tomorrow.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: But allegedly the rapture is happening today. I think that
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: this is like the third rapture in my lifetime. People
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: are selling their cars, which, first of all, I don't
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: understand why so many people on the internet are selling
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: their things, Like if you're getting raptured, you don't need
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: the money, Like what are you going to do with
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: why are you selling your things? Just anyways, I watched
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: a ten minute breakdown that this girl did about what
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: to do when you're raptured. Apparently, don't grab onto things
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: in your house, don't touch things because it just prevents
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: you from being raptured when you do that. Don't look
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: down because you might get sick. You're supposed to just
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: look up to just.
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: Go and whatever.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: There's people online who are like, I'm being raptured tomorrow,
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: and if I am not raptured, I will come online,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: make an apology video, and get off of the internet forever.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: I guess like the signs of all of.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: This political crap going on that we're not supposed to
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: be talking about at our jobs is why people think
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: that the rapture is happening. Like I said, I'll see
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: you guys tomorrow. I'm pretty sure this is like the
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: third rapture of my lifetime. But people are selling all
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: of their shit. And I guess four o'clock today, if
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: you see people floating, it is the rapture stuck you
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  Speaker 2: in on this.
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: No, I don't have time for this nonsense. They this
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: is like the every year there's that this is the
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: end of the world. This is the real rapture will
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: come when if the Titans actually cover a game. But
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: I found a new obsession, and uh, it's this stuff.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: It's is that a candle think salt?
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: I think it's pronounced nom pre pal could be mispronounced it,
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: but it's tie chili oil.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: And oh yeah, my friends.
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: From Chicago brought this one for me this weekend. They
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: came to visit and like the sandwich shop by them
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: in Chicago puts it on all their breakfast sandwiches. Oh
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: my god. I made egg sandwiches on like fresh fresh
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: carved out roll the past two days and then just
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: drenched the role in this.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: It is, I'm a life hack for you, believable. I
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: do this with pesto too. Just take like a teaspoon
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: of it and put it in your pan and then
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: crack your egg in it, and the egg cooks in
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: that oil and it like some versus itself in it.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: And that way you have like the spicy eggs for
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: your breakfast sandwiches and it doesn't drip off because the
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: egg cooked in it.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: It's so good.
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  Speaker 4: That's a good idea. I'll try that tomorrow.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: So look at it's called just Google. We're not we're
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: not sponsored by this. What do they want to sponsors?
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: I would, uh just google pink salt and then nom
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: n a m preak I think it's p r I
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: K and then pal p ao it's tye roasted chili jam. Oh,
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: it's like the best breakfast sandwich. I've ever had.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: This he's had, but we can't get him to try
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Zaxby's sauce.
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: Hey, he tried. Don't put that evil.
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: I tried to do it. I blame that customer service.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: That's a Chick fil A. Wouldn't have forgotten my sauce.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: Chick fil A won the best chicken Sandwich. Did you
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: see that?
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: That doesn't surprise me.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Who is awarding this?
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: The American Chicken Association. I don't even know if that's
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: the thing. Let's see, I just read it.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: Maybe we are being raptured.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: The Christian chicken sandwich got voted the best chicken sandwich,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: and now they're never going to have another contest because
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: we're all going to be raptured.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: So one question I have to go back to the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: rapture for a moment. We'll get to our picks in
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: a minute. Is do I is this like a crack
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: in the ground that you fall into or am.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: You don't up?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Sucked up?
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: You go up?
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Gotcha?
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: That's why the girl was.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Saying, you like, shouldn't look down like you just stare
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: up the whole time. Imagine getting raptured and getting like
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: motion sickness and just like throwing up right thing below.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: You doesn't sound that bad. I imagine you're going to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: the You're you're going to the better place. That's the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: idea of this.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: I guess if that's your idea of the better place,
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: I still want to smoke darts with Satan.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, like, are you just going to the
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: moon or you? Is this like a spiritual thing?
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know.
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  Speaker 2: I grew up in the Southern Baptist Church and I
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: this is this is my third rapture and I still
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: don't know.
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  Speaker 1: Okay. Sponsored by Elon Musk and his news base cadets.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I guess all right, well, hey, what do you say
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: we move on to the main dish? Some news across
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the league. One night night football was electric, twenty eight
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: points scored in the first half alone, sixty eight total.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: The Lions win by eight on the road against Baltimore.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Four touchdowns for the Lions running backs to a piece
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  Speaker 1: for Gibbs and David Montgomery. The props were propping last
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: night across the board. But is Derrick Henry broken? I
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: mean this is now two times this year where he
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: has not him alone. The defense has issues, but where
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: he has cost this team mightily with a big time fumble. Stucky,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: you're a Ravens fan, how did you compute what happened
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: last night?
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah? The Ravens just right now, they're not the same
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: team as they will be when they're fully healthy. They're
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: missing like number one. Their offense isn't humming as it
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: usually does. Is just not as efficient. There's still some
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: explosiveness still Lamar, but the guard are struggling for He's
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: really struggling, So the offensive line is not great. I
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: did think the Lions. I was really impressed with the
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: Lion's defensive game plan and how they rushed and spied Lamar.
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  Speaker 4: It differed a lot from the first time these two
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  Speaker 4: teams played two years ago. But they don't have Likely
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  Speaker 4: in Ricard, and when they have Likely, it is that's
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: how they create so many mismatches and heavy formations. And
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: you have Likely and Andrews out there and then Ricard,
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: and then you can do so many things that teams
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  Speaker 4: aren't used to seeing. And they might get Likely back
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: but this week, but they just aren't full strength, and
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: their offensive line in the interior of both guard positions
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  Speaker 4: is really struggling, which you're seeing on just the drive
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: by drive efficiency basis. And on the defensive end, they
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: really miss Matabuke in the middle like they've been they
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: have allowed going into last night. It's gonna get worse
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: now they've allowed two yards more per carry without him
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: on the field. He's also their best interior pass rusher.
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: So those are the those that's how you beat the Lions.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: You get interior pressure. The Ravens can't really get interior
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: pressure now with that Madibuque, and their run defense is
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: much worse. You saw that throughout the night. So the
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: Ravens have to get a lot healthier because they're missing
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: that key cog in the middle of their defense who
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: does so much, not only on against the run, but
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: on late downs and then on offense. They just don't
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: have their full complement of weapons in addition to the
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: offensive line struggling. So yeah, it's a Ravens team that
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: sets far from peak right now. So impressive roadwin for
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: the for the Lions.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: My big issue has Henry broken.
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: I mean it's probably just fluky, but it's crazy that
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: it's happenings.
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  Speaker 3: Three in a row.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's just not He's not a running back
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: that fumbles, so it is a question of is he broken.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: I think my big issue last night was just Todd
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: Monkin in general. I don't think that it was the
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: best game for him.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: I think that they've definitely got away from their bread
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: and butter and what we as consumers and fans know
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: to be Ravens football over the last twenty five years,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: and Lamar Jackson just it looked like he was trying
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: not to run or be traditional Lamar Jackson last night.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: He took way too long to look downfield, way too
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: long to make decisions, held onto the ball way too long.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: There were times where I was screaming at my TV,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: just go just run, just be Lamar Jackson, be that
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: guy stopped looking downfield.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: It just it felt like Todd Monkin.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Got away from the football that we know that the
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: Ravens play, and that was their biggest issue. There were
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: times I was genuinely screaming at Lamar through my TV.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: And they just they passed way too much.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: I get that Derrick Henry has been having you know,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: fumble problems, but he despite that, he's still been the
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Derrick Henry that we know that man does not age
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: and Lamar, you are the best dual threat quarterback in
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: the league. Use your legs when it looks like you
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: need to run, run, you know better than anybody else.
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: Just it felt like they got.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: Away from what we know Raven's football to be and
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: that it was them shooting them the foot. I can
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: take the injury thing, I get that, but they were
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: in that game from start to finish, and there's nobody
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: to blame but themselves for that loss.
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: The Lions played lights out. Their run game gave them fits.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: The defense absolutely did their job. It was at six
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: sacks seven sacks at the end of the night.
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: Seven did their job.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: But still they were in that game and there was
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: no excuse other than themselves on offense shooting themselves in
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: the foot.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Eighty that it makes. He makes such a big difference
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: on that Lion's defense. But I mean, Lamar passing wise
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: was terrific. But in terms of actually managing the game,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: we got Mark Andrews back involved. He had a total
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: of seven yards entering last night, ends up in ninety
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: six and two touchdowns. One of those was just kind
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: of garbage time at the end of the game. But
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get too far ahead here, but
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: we are very much a show and a peoples of
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: looking ahead, not behind. I always want to do a
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: quick recap, especially when you have a game that's that exciting.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: But this is about what's next. The Ravens have a
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: big one on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. They
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: are road favorites against the Chiefs team. That wall was
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: against the Giants. Feels like they found themselves at least
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: slightly on offense. Mahomes deep ball was cooking again early
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Reid Kendra on that game, have you placed any bets
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: on it? What are you thinking? Early on? I want
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to be on the Chiefs, but I hate fading a
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Ravens team off of a loss like this.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I know, you guys love the
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: angle of a Mahomes like home dog, whatever situation. But
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: I'm probably going to be on the Ravens once again
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: this week just because once they're coming off of a loss,
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: I don't really care that they're on the road. I
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: hate to feed them in that situation. But it's more
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: so just I'm watching this Chiefs team and I think
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: that they suck the Giants. They didn't beat the Giants
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: the Giants beat the Giants, Okay, like Russell Wilson hot
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: garbage ass Okay, this has to be the We can
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: talk about the Giants later, but it has to be
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: Jackson start from here. But it's just the Ravens coming
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: off of this loss. I think they're gonna be out
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: for blood. I don't think Derek Henry can fumble four
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: games in a row.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: The Chiefs don't look good. They don't look like the
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: Chiefs we know them to be.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: I'm out on the Patrick Mahomes home dog. The Chiefs
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: are injured, Sure, the Ravens are also injured, but that
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: team is just so much more depth across the board.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: I can't.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs are just not themselves and I'm not going
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: to back them until they convince me that they are
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: the team that they have been for the last five, six,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: seven years. And the Ravens can be and I think
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: that they are more likely to fix their issues in
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: this scenario than the Chiefs not even being able to
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: really beat the Giants. How I would like them to
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: beat the Giants for me to be convinced to put
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: my hard earned dollar on them this week.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Stucky. If the Chiefs can run the football, which they
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: haven't been great at this year against this Ravens team,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: and Mahomes feels comfortable. That is the Mahomes Chiefs dog
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: that I want to be in on. We know the
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: defense is going to show up. I'm kind of stuck
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: in the middle here. Where do you stand early on
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: on this game?
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: No, I want no interest of the Chiefs. I mean
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: I thought the Chiefs looked awful again. I mean, look,
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: they have the average savage four yards per play against
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: the Giants. The Giants and the Chiefs both average four
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: yards per play on Sunday. The Giants didn't have a kicker,
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: which cost them, like, I don't know, six points, and
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: they were down, they were at the goal line. They
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: could have another touchdown. Yeah, I mean, Mahomes completed two
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: balls downfield. But you got to remember no kicker, and
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: Andrew Thomas didn't play the second half, and Russell Wilson
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: was just throwing it into the end zone. This Chief's
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: just throwing him to the tunnel at the end of
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: the game. I don't know what he was doing. So
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: I wasn't overly impressed with the Chiefs. I know Chris
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: Collinsworth was just drooling all over. Mahomes also threw it
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: backwards twice, just.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Like that was crazy. That was He just doesn't That's
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying. Last week, he doesn't seem like the
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: same guy.
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: I thought that could have been two Giants touchdowns and
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: which would have swung the whole game. I mean, they
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: also won the turn of a battle to nothing. The
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: Giants went one a four on fourth down, they didn't
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: have a kicker, and it was kind of a game.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: So wait, I have a question, since we are getting
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: raptured do we just put fucking money everywhere this week? Like,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: do we do we go balls to the wall because
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: money doesn't matter. We're getting raptured.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Well, people are selling stuff, so I don't know that everybody.
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: There's no need to even put place at that.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: I don't get raptured. I still I still want a
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: bank roll, So I just I'm not ready to make
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: that sort of commitment.
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: They but no, I can't back the Chiefs here. But
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: the Raidings have issues. Like I said, I don't know
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: if it's like their defense this week unlike last week? Though,
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: can you know you can provide help because when you're
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: playing the lines, they can spread you out. They have
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: really good receivers, but here the Chiefs run game isn't
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: as good. They don't have Gibbs in Montgomery and their
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: receivers aren't as good. Well see if Worthy can go.
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: But this Chiefs offense is just like even the loss
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: amount of Bouquet isn't as great this week as it
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: was last week. And this Chief's back end on the
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: defense still has issues so that I think Lamar can exploit.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: But I'll tell you the Chiefs are probably gonna look
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: at a lot of what the Lions did defensively last week.
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: The key to me, there's two keys, is Worthy back.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: He's just so huge for the Chiefs offense and is
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: likely back for the Ravens. And then if so, how
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: healthy are they and in what capacity? But both of
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: those pieces are really important. But yeah, I want no
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: part of the Chiefs as of right now. Two and
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: a half. I will say this game is huge because
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: this is essentially a one seed elimination game because you look,
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: I mean you look at the Bills schedule. The Ravens
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: already have a loss to the Bills. If they lose
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: to the Chiefs, I don't see them getting the one seed,
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: which is uber important. If the Chiefs fall to one
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: in three, I don't see them finely. I mean, maybe
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: they could beat the Bills head to head, that'll help
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: make up the gap. But this game is big for
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: playoff positioning. The teams that coming into the season thought
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: they were going to get a one seed. They don't
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: win this game, and then you're going to have a
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: tougher path in the playoffs.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, I think we're looking
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: at the difference being the Ravens can clean.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: Up the issues that they had last night.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs cannot make up for the lack of talent
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: and the injuries in comparison to the Ravens right now.
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: That's what I'm looking at.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: Like the Ravens can limit the turnovers, they can have
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: Lamar get the ball out quicker, they can change their
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: offensive plan a little bit. The Chiefs cannot get over
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: the lack of talent issue that they're having right now.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: It's still a team that you need to downgrade at
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: least slightly, just in the fact that they're coming off
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: of a Monday night football game where they just got
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: beat up by the Detroit Lions. So there is that
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: also that the Ravens are at a scheduled disadvantage here,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: not just being on the road, but I think even
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: more importantly, coming off of that Monday night game, it
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: sounds to me like we're all on a holding pattern
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: with this one. So we'll put them to the side
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: till Thursday.
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: By the way, the Eagles were just minus one and
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: a half in Kansas City. I mean I have the
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: Raidens three points better than the Eagles, so now they're
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: not at one hundred percent full strength with neither is
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. So I would in order to entertain the Chiefs,
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: I would need at least three, but definitely not at
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: two and a half.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think this ever touches three, do you.
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: I could see it. Let's see there is.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: It looks like two and a half's across the board.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but there there's semi juice. There's like minus two
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: and a half minus one twenty, So I could see
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: a touch in three. Depending it'll depend on injury reports,
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: and there'll probably be some buy on Kansas City at three,
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: but we'll be monitoring and we'll talk more on Thursday
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: about it.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be one of the buyers when that touches
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: the three Monday night football in the Bucks. Let's move
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: on to Viking Steelers leave for Dublin on Thursday after practice.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: So I did digging to see both of the travel
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: schedules here Kendra, to see if we had any sort
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of an edge on who lands in Dublin first. They
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: both leave Thursday after practice, so I don't know who's
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: gonna land first, but they're not gonna land too far
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: apart from one another.
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: I think that's so dumb.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I know, I don't know that we does it still
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: matter if it's like fifteen minutes apart? Is it just okay?
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: It has to be well you're talking hours days?
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, because there actually is data.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Evan wound up looking into it
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: or not, but I remember specifically the last couple of
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: years there being a difference between people who would leave
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: pretty much, you know, Monday or Tuesday, and then the
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: people who would follow the Thursday schedule and leave. There
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: definitely was a significant advantage in the team who got
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: there earlier. And I even look back at like, like
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: I said, Jags fan, I've been through this quite a
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: few times. Jags got their absolute ass beat by the
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: Bears in their first game last year, stayed played a
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: second game across the way in London against the Patriots
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: last year and wax the Patriots.
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: The time advantage definitely helps you.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: I don't like I said. I don't know if Evan
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: looked into it. I should have probably done more research.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: But as someone who has suffered through these London games
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: for quite some time now and pays attention to all
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: of them, there is an advantage to getting there earlier
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: and adjusting well, and.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: There's definitely an advantage to staying there. I think the
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: bigger advantage isn't so much about this week on Minnesota
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: or Pittsburgh, but the Vikings play the Browns in London
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: next week and Week five. Teams that stay overseas have
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: a massive advantage. The Jags are the only team to
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: have done it to go back to back overseas. They
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: are two and oh straight up two and oh against
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: the spread. You just mentioned getting waxed in games prior
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: and then turning right around because they stay there. So
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: perhaps I wish the Vikings were playing a better team
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: than Cleveland, where there we have a tighter number, because
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: they're going to be pretty heavy favorites against the Browns,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: But I would still look early on at targeting the
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Vikings in week five. That's probably the best. I know
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: we're talking about week four, but I think the best
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: angle to look at here is Vikings week five.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: One n not even a question in my mind depending
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: do we have a number on that already for.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: The Vikings Browns.
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: It looks like it's six and a half seven right now.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: I don't. I mean, it's not gonna it's not gonna
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: get much lower than that. If the Browns would have
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: to beat the Lions. I don't see them going back
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: to back like that against the AFC North.
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: The Vikings going back. I'm not laying seven with JJ McCarry.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think I want to like seven
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: with JJ McCarthy, wor cars some wentz but uh, that
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: sounds like a PA against that Browns front.
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: That'll be a no go from me. Big dogs.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish they I wish they were playing a
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: team that was good enough to where the Vikings would
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: be a dog. We'd be all over the Minnesota Vikings
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: in that spot. Haf Tough looks, yes, exactly. The injuries
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: are piling up, folks. Nick Bosa done for the year.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: He's out San Francisco, he's got an ACL injury. Ceed
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Lamb is out multiple weeks. He's definitely gonna miss against
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. Jerry Jones is talking about putting
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: him on ir J.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: Crazy because he said that he could even potentially play
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: this week if he wanted to CD dead.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's a pretty big gap in.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: Fuck up God, I'm so sick of him.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: We've already seen that line moved pretty drastically. It was
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: five and a half, four and a half, five, somewhere
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: between four and five at open, but quickly got bet
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: up to Packers minus six. Right after the news came
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: out about Ceedee Lamb, it popped six and a half
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: and now you see sevens pretty much across the board.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: James Connors also done with a severe ankle injury. He's
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: out for the year. Fire up Trey Benson Stock and
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Najee Harris is done with an achilles. So I assume
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: as far as this goes, Nick Bosa would definitely move
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a line. Ceedee Lamb feels like the most drastic of
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: all of these as far as where we would be
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: leaning towards one side or the other based on these
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: injuries that we see. I would have probably wanted to
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: be on Dallas this week against Green Bay, but I
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: don't think you can touch it without Ceedee Lamb Stucky.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: We saw what that looked like when he left the game.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: The team could have moved the ball consistently.
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's tough. I mean, it's still get seven. We're
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: getting up there, it's getting I mean, I could not
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: be at the Packers. It's only the Cowboys at that price.
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: But that was that was one of their biggest advents. Like,
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: their biggest strengths of their team is their wide receiver room,
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: and their offense is going to have to make up
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: for their defense which is atrocious. Uh so again, you're
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: getting the Packers salty off of the loss Parsons revenge game. Sure,
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: he's going to be firing out of a canon.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: So do we have Parsons Yeah, yeah, probably Yeah, over
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: that's going to be at least minus two hundred.
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: Everyone's going to be bad minus eight minus eight hundred
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: for over a one and a half sacks. But yeah,
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: the Bosa one's big. The forty nine ers are stars
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: and scrubs team.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: Like, yeah, I want to talk about that game.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Because obviously we don't have the news about Mac Jones
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: and brought Party. Yet it's sitting at the Jags getting
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: three and a half. Do we think that this value
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: is going to get any better or any worse, because
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: obviously Party was pretty close to allegedly.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: Being back this week.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: I think that if he plays, obviously this number gets
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: better if you like the Jags, But I think that
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: we probably if you have any likes or Leans, this
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: is maybe where you have to make some value decisions
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: and make them quickly, especially with both out.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: I'm sitting this conversation out because this is my plant
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: the flag game.
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I would think it goes to three if
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: if it's Mac Jones, and then it ticks back up
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: to four four and a half if it's Party. I
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: could be wrong, but the both laws is big. Like
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: that defense, all the attention that he draws then opens
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: up things for your other pass rushers, So the trickle
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: down effect is no longer there because overall, if you
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: look at this defense, it's not an overly talented unit.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: And uh so, yeah, I think that the the Jacks
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: are definitely gonna benefit from that. So we'll see, we'll
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: we'll talk more about that on Brandon's plays by game.
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: But yeah, the Bosa and the lamb Ones are obviously
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: pretty big. That James Connord's unfortunate, but I don't think
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: it really impacts the Cardinals that much. They have they
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: have good running back death and it's it's still at
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: the end of the day, it's a running back, so
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: that's not that's not too impactful other than just impacting
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: your depth. But yeah, Cowboys are in trouble if Lamb
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: is out long term because I think the coming into
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: the year is like Lamb and Parsons, let's rely on
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: the rights. We don't have.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Either exactly now, it's all it's all on Dak and
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a resurgent Ravante Williams. I think the Packers are a
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: great teaser. Leg I already took them down to half
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: a point and the and I paired that with the
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Denver Broncos on Monday Night down to a point against
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals bod Nicks. As a teaser, leg has
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: been I think he's been the most profitable Caeser candidate
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: over the last year.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: So the defense.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Right, yeah, I mean that's why you have to buy
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: the points with if you're gonna bet bo Nicks. So
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: let's take a look at the ATS standings report as
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: it stands right now, only two three and oh teams
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: remain against the spread, the Indianapolis Colts and the LA Chargers.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: The Chargers one is debatable because that line sat at
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I think it hit a three
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: at some point before kickoff. Unfortunately I was impatient enough
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: on that and I took the l on the Denver Broncos.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Speaking of bo Nicks by the points, ladies and gentlemen,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: But the Saints, Broncos and Texans are the only three
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: not to cover the number yet. The big question of
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: all of this is is it time finally to fade
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts. They finally play a real football team
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: in the LA Rams this week. Waiting for this opportunity,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: but am this team is impressive? So is anybody willing
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: to do it to fade the Indianapolis Colts is an
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: undefeated ATS team.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: I think I potentially might get there just because the
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Rams are healthy. Outside of if you want to consider
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: the Matthew Stafford back saying an issue which he's older,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: I think it's something you definitely have to look at
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: But I do think that this is the week that
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: the Colts get got. I'm not going to say they're
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: going to turn back into a pumpkin, because I do
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: think that they're actually a legit team at this point.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know why I feel that way.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: I know when we first started this show, I was
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: talking about how they draft. Well, it's just been the
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: coaching not be able to put the pieces together for them.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: But I just think that this Rams team is just
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: all class. They're as healthy as they can be. That
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: the healthiest they're going to be all season. The Rams
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: are legit, man. They were one of my favorite heading
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: into the season, one of my sleeper picks to you know,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: make a deep playoff run.
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: Not that that's really even a sleeper.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: It's just the NFC's not you know, the the NFC
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: is not the AFC right now. A couple of years ago,
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: you would have gotten me to say otherwise.
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: But I don't know.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: They haven't played any great opponents so far. Their their
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: game this week was just a heartbreaker.
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: I'll see. I'm curious how they bounced back after that.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: But uh yeah, I would love a three. That's what
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: I'm hoping. There's a lot of Colts love in the market,
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: and we can at some point get to three. That's
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: what I'll be waiting for all week. They might get
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: a Vealo back so they could be one hundred percent
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: healthy this week. But yeah, I've been impressed with the Colts,
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: especially against the Broncos at home in that defense, because
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: like the Broncos, the Rams can get pressure and Daniel
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: Jones historically struggled against pressure, but against the Broncos they
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: were able to move it and they carved up that defense.
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: But yeah, if we can get if I can get
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: a three, I would I'm definitely in on the Rams here.
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: But uh, because we have to keep in mind the Colts.
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: It's again, it's only three games, and two of them
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: have come against the Titans five starters out and the Dolphins,
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: who didn't even get off the bus in Week one,
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: and then their one win came against the Broncos because
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: of a leaping penalty. By the way, you could have
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: called it on on the Eagles on that field goal block,
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: but of course they didn't. So they could easily be
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: one too and one still looking good, but the conversation
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: would be a lot different that they're two and one
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: with wins over the Texans. Excuse me, the Titans and
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: the Dolphins, who have yet to win a game. And yeah,
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: the Titans, by the way, are just I don't even
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: want to talk about that game. They're three and seventeen
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: against the spread over the past twenty.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I bet them. I'll talk at the seven and a half.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not even going to suggest it, but but the.
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: Number seven and a half, it's them or nothing, just
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: because the Texans bid don't deserve to be laying seven
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: and a half.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: That's exactly anyone exactly, it's a bet against the Texans
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: and unfortunately the Titans of side on the other side
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: of it.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: You might be right. I hate to say it, but
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: it's a divisional game.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: The Texans have been terrible laying seven seven and a
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: get and I got it at minus one ten. That
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: number is gone now, which does make me feel good
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: about the wager, at least at this juncture in the week.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: I'm sure I'll feel differently when we're into the second
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: quarter on Sunday, but I feel like it was a
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: bet that that had to be made.
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: Now I'll get I think I'm going eleven bet and
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: Titans games when I beat the close over the last
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: two years, sometimes by like three points. So the Titans,
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: we'll find a way. The Callahan, he's just he's gotta go.
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: Did you hear the fire Callahan? Chance and the stands
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: at oh yeah, end of the half?
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Really he might beat Mike McDaniel to the bunch, who knows.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Can we talk about how dumb that c J.
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: Stroud and Kayleb Williams conversation looks like after their game
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: when he goes up to him and he's like, you know,
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: fix your mistakes.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: This this league's two hard blah blah blah blah blah.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: CJ.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Stroud giving Kleb Williams all this advice and it's like,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: you look real dumb.
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: Now, you look real dumb right now?
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Stroud's gotta he's got to figure it out. But
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: he's getting no help around him.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: He's becoming more and more unlikable to me. His rookie season,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: I like loved him and I hate the Texans more
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: than any other team or fan base, but he is
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: becoming more and more unlikable rather quickly, in my opinion.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's uh, he's not handling the losing press conference
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: well to this point. By the way, I have a
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: damning stat on the Indianapolis Colts. This will make you
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: want to fade them quickly. This is uh. I found
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: a graph on how often do NFL defenses allow a
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: new series of downs? The dead last team in the
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: NFL is the Indianapolis Colt seventy eight percent of the
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: time their defense allows a new series of downs. The
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: best team in the NFL is the Green Bay Packers,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, the Chargers, the Broncos. Just for a frame
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: of reference, those are the best defenses in the league.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: The Colts are dead last. And look who they've played.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: I do wonder if some of that is just because
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: they've been blowing some teams out and garbage time maybe
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: has baked into that a little bit. But still that
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: they're down there with the Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, and Steelers,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and this is an undefeated team that's also spread.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: You're not getting any pressure. That's bad. I mean the
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: Titans were moving the ball on them a bit. That
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: Broncos shredded them. You can't get trigded by the Broncos offense.
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: And the Dolphins were just they were in a daze.
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: But yeah, their defense isn't great. It's better because it's
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: not Gus Bradley, but it's still not an elite unit
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: for sure. So their offense has to keep up this pace.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: So I flashed the bat signal early this morning because
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: I saw this line out there for the Bills and
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: the Saints. It's up to sixteen and a half, and
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: I thought, how often do you see a number that
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: big this early on in the season. So we're talking
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: about the September really early October portion of the season.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: And I look back, I did my own research, couldn't
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: find anything but through the bat signal up there, and
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams hit me back with this one. The biggest
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Week one through four spread that we have seen is
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: this one. Bills favored by sixteen and a half since
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. It was also a Bills game at
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: home against the Houston Texans where the Bills were favored
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: by seventeen. They won that game forty to zero. This
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: is also the largest the Saints have been an underdog
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: since nineteen seventy five, which is shocking to me because
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: they've had some bad teams since nineteen seventy five. Anybody
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: willing to lay the lay the lumber on the Buffalo Bills.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: Absolutely not no.
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: Not only sixteen and a half an NFL game, although
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: I think historically favorites of over two touchdowns. Heaven can
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: correct us, correct me if wrong. I think they're like
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: five hundred against the spread, but Josh Allen is six
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: nine and two against the spread when favored by more
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: than ten. We just saw them favored by eleven and
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: a half at home against the Dolphins, and Dolphins easily covered. Like,
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: if this gets the seventeen, I might have to think
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: about the Saints. The Saints weren't that bad last week,
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: like their special teams were disaster, but like success right yards,
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: they were pretty even with the Seahawks, and they looked
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: like functional. And this Bills team is not the team
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: that you want to lay seventeen with in this spot.
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: Like they're they're gonna they're gonna take the air out
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: of the ball, They're gonna run it a ton, they're
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: gonna kill clock.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, stay healthy.
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: You're not gonna run Allen, So yeah, no, thanks.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: Stay healthy, kill clock.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Is there any team right now in the NFL that's
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: like an absolute world beater to you, guys? I know
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: that the conversation was the Packers last week, Like, I
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: don't think anybody is like a bona fide favorite right now,
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: everybody's flawed.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Well I would agree with that, Yeah, Bills.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: I think pat Packers might be the best team in
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: the NFC when they're healthy, like they're Offen's a lot
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: got dominated last week because of their injuries, but uh
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: that they're not like head and shoulders above everyone else.
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: I think the Ravens are the best team they see
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: when they're fully healthy, but they're beatable mark games.
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: I don't know what it is.
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: It's a lot of parody in the NFL, but for
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: for what, it's where dogs off off a thirty point
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: plus loss, Like who wants to bet an underdog which
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: means they're playing a better team after a thirty plus
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: point loss. One hundred and fifteen seventy seven and eight
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: against the spread over the past twenty five years, that's
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: sixty percent. This week you got three of them. Yeah,
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: the Saints, the Falcons, and the Bengals. So historically it's
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: been a good bet. Teams off a thirty point plus
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: point loss bet them the next week.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Because I am softening, I'm softening a little bit on
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the on the Falcons idea the other two.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: I thought we were in bet jail with the Falcons.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Well, I just said, I'm softening. They're still behind. They're
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: still behind.
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: The I played Falcons rails.
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: Whatever you want to tell you about.
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: Bet jail, that's the time the bettle.
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: Besides, I'm in lad Maconkee bet jail.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: But I'm going to tell you guys, he's going to
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: score this week. If you faded me last week, this
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: is your time. I'm gonna preface this. I'm going to
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: be so he he haha, silly with my picks this week.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: When we finally roll around to Thursday, I'm just letting
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: you guys know I am going off the rails.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: It's already that time of the year.
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: That's my tease. I'm going to be insane.
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: The Evan has shared the stat fifty so favorites of
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: over fourteen points fifty three, fifty two and three against
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: the spread and essential coin flip. So we are all
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: staying away from Okay, I don't hate that, leve. Let's
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: talk to the professor of pickles here, Kendra Middleton. What
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: is the game that has you all torn up your
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: pickle game of the week.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: You already know that it's going to be the battle
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: of the p words. It's the Panthers and the Patriots.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: I with the way that the number is looking, I
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: get that the Panthers are not a thirty point, shutout
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: win team against absolutely anybody, But I think they're finding
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: their rhythm right now. I all right, do what is
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: going on with Christian Gonzales?
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: You tell us that's your John?
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: I know, I do. I think that. Do they sit
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: in this?
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: Okay, here's my thing, and I'm between this like everybody else.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: I told you guys that the local media is kind
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: of saying that they are thinking.
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: That it's going to be the Bills game.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: If you're a head coach, which obviously none of us are,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: unless you guys coach like high school or something that
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know about, would you rather start Christian Gonzalez
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: in a game against the Panthers to maybe let him
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: warm up take you know, twenty thirty percent of the
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: reps on defense, or would you rather just let him
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: sit one more week and throw him out there against Buffalo.
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'd rather come back this week, especially the Patriots.
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: You can't you want to get him into the next
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: before how much stuffer opponent.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, And it's not like anybody's all push over to
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. They can't look at their schedule
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: that way.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: I just I say, I think that this number is
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: too big for a Patriot Crazy that sucks.
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: I think that I have to back the sad Cats.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: You guys, I don't understand what's happening. So I do
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: my own numbers just to you know, get a framework
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: of what we're looking at for the week. And this
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: is the most off market game for me. I have.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: The Patriots is a one point favorite, So I don't
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: know one.
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: Of my look at those numbers.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Well exactly like I don't. Everything else is sort of
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: where it should be. You know, we're in range that one.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know where I have gone astray with this
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: or what I'm missing, but I'm it's too off for
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: me to bet it because obviously I need to get
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: back in the lab with that. But this Patriots team
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: should not be a five and a half point favorite,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: just common sense wise. And then the numbers, it's something And.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: If Gonzales comes back, that number is probably only gonna
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: get better.
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's gonna go up. To six six and
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: a half this week. I bet the Patriots if you're in,
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: If you're curious, dogs underdogs that just won a game
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: by a shutout are thirty five percent against the spread. Historically,
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: the Panthers still stink. Penicks just had a game where
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: he was awful and he couldn't complete a pass. Like
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: they didn't do anything. They were just playing their basic
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: cover three Ay. Penis just could couldn't read the defense.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: There was miscommunication issues. I mean, the Panthers got out
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: game by one hundred yards. Their defense still stinks. They
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: have offensive line injuries. The Patriots are going to dominate
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: them up front. They're not able to run the ball,
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: especially if they get Gonzales back. How are they moving
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: the ball? I don't know. The Patriots don't have a
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: problem moving the ball. They moved the ball half They
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: moved all every single game this year, up and down
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: the field, like last last week. They played that game
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: nine out of ten times. They beat the Steelers by
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: twenty if they don't fumble, they turned it over five times.
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: They fumbled the goal line twice. So and this this
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: Panther's defense is wretched. That one game doesn't change my
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: thoughts on that their offensive line was supposed to be
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: their strength, is now missing multiple starters. The loss of
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: Hunt is huge, and the Patriots front has been really good,
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: so they're not going to run it, and then Young
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: will be under pressure. It's probably gonna make mistakes. So yeah,
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: I like the Patriots. I like the Patriots went by
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: margin this week. Not my plant the flag game, but uh,
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: I am.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: On if if the Panthers cover this with the ease,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: I'm never doubting my power ratings again, but for right now,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna doubt my power ratings.
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: Rabel doesn't lose games like this.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: I'll say that like to bad teams, Like I get
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: that the Steelers were they're not a good team, but
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: they're not the Panthers.
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: That's the only lean.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: That I have in this game Patriots wise, is that
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: Rabel beats bad teams.
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: Even though he was the Patriots worse than the Panthers.
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: That's insane.
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't have the Patriots worse.
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: I'm talking with Brandon has one point spread. That's it kind.
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: Of looks like as we're due.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: The tarketingste digs at.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: All, I have the Panthers is one point better than
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: the New England Patriots.
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: That's insane in market. The I mean even going in that.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: That's without a home field or anything like any any
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: other factors, just power ratings wise.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: It's the more in market. Do you think you even
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: going in the last week there, it's it's like a
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: four and a half point difference. Uh, Brabel is twenty
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: eight and eleven straight up against teams under five hundred
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: to teams.
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: That's one thing I will give him.
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: Hire playing Where are we planting our flags?
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're planting the flag. Okay, I'm gonna get it started.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Forty nine ers minus three and a half already kind
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: of teased this one. I got a minus one oh five,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: this might touch three. I'm gonna take the gamble here
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: that Purty plays will see this number tick up by
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: a couple of points. But it's a fade against the Jags.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: They've got wins over the Panthers, who I'm clearly off on,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: and the uh in the Houston Texans.
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: And how good the Panthers are.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, I'm not that's a good win yet.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: Us.
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: If I say Champs are better than the Patriots and you.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Like them, yeah, my numbers are not gospel.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: Today.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: I'm going back to the lab on the on the
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Panthers because I think narrative, I think, yeah, well that's
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: definitely true. But I I think I think I've overrated them.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: The I don't make the numbers off of subjectivity. This
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: is a formula, and clearly the formula has overrated a
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: thirty point win. Besides that, the Jags defense has been great,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: but this is gonna be their biggest test of the season.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: They ring second to last in receiving grade. Big shocker there,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: and then dead last and special teams. We see how
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: important special teams are early on in the season. A
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: chance that party plays in this number ticking up. I'm
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: going to plant the flag on the forty nine ers now,
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: and I'm even willing to lay the hook at three
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: I'll tell you, the forty nine ers have had the
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: Jags number for years and years. So I am flying
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: across the country for this.
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: But I don't hate it.
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: I don't think I like three and a half with
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: this for you talk about the Jags. Resume the forty
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: nine ers or three and oh they have wins over
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: Seattle and a coin flip game, New Orleans in a
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: coin flip game, and then Arizona in a game they
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: probably should have lost.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: So like, that's looking pretty good.
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: I'm not They've won by four, five and one, so like,
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: this isn't a team that I And now there's no Bosa,
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: so I'll be curious today. Might maybe they get Party
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: and maybe they get Jennings back?
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: Can I say something crazy?
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: I think I like them more if Mac Jones is playing.
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: Well, if you get a three, you might get a
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: three and next.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: No, I think that they're more likely to win this game.
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: If Mac is playing just because Party's hurt.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: Maxim might not.
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: He might drive off the driving Max.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: Been playing lights out, a revenge game from him against
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: his hometown.
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: Like, what are we even doing here?
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, I'm still I'm still comfortable with I'm
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: so comfortable with the forty nine ers. If Jones plays,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I'd rather have pretty out there. I think we're forgetting
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: how good.
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: Even with like the claw toe?
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: No, no, all right to McGee over.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Here, what about you, Kendrew? Where you plainting the flag?
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: You alluded to it teased a little bit. I'm going
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: with the Seahawks.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: This line is wrong.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: The Seahawks are it's Seahawks are nothing for me this
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: week probably going to be my biggest play.
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: The Cardinals are bad. People are sleeping on the Seahawks.
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Yes, they lost to the forty nine Ers, but they
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: were still healthy, as healthy as they were going to
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: be at that point for the season. Beat the bag
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: out of the Steelers, beat the bag out of the Saints.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Steelers and Saints both bad. But I think that the
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: Saints and the Steelers are both equivalent to the Cardinals.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Cardinals got injury issues. Seahawks are better than people are
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: giving them credit for. I think that this is a
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: real team to reckon without West. I'm going with the
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: Seahawks this week, no questions asked.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, great teaser leg too, Let them kick them up
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: to us lot.
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: Just people listening on Thursdays. There's a lot of injuries
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: that look for both sides, Cardinals secondary, Seahawks secondary. There's
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: a couple others too, so keep your eye out there.
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: Because the Seahawks a bunch of their defenders didn't play
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: on Sunday, and then the Cardinals as well, so we'll
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: see who goes. It seems like an over reaction. I mean,
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: coming into the year that we've all said, like we're
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: out on the Seahawks. People were saying the Cardinals are
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: a sleeper, and like, if you look at their resumes,
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: like they've they've pretty much played to what we expected.
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: But should should be a good one on Thursday night.
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: Injuries are gonna be big to watching the secondaries there,
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: I'll I'll play my flag on the only game I've
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: played so far, I've played the Falcons, but that there's
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: probably no threes left? Are there any threes left? I
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: doubt it?
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: Just two and a half.
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I still would play the Falcons at two and
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: a half, but obviously not as big. But I mean
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: the calendar. Who knows if Daniel's gonna play, who knows
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: how healthy is I don't like this Commander team this
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: year anyway, but they have their entire secondary got hurt
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: last week. McLaurin got hurt. They lost. I think they
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: have like four or five starters on IR they started.
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: They signed Darnell Savage, just got cut by the Jaguars
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: and he's probably gonna start for them. Lattimore looks washed.
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: I think Savage sucks.
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: This is the trifecta. It was a team off of
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: the Falcons had a misleading box score loss. They are
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: off of a shutout teams and then they were off
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: of a thirty point loss. So underdogs off of a
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: after getting shut out sixty two percent historically dogs off
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: a thirty plus point loss sixty percent historically huge sample size.
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: So but I'll plan my flag on the Bengals plus
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: seven and a half. Still some seven and a half's
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: out there. I think minus one fifteen the look we
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: said last week, and the Bengals, by the way, fit
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: this off of a dog off a thirty plus point loss.
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: We said last week that I made the difference between
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: uh and this is one of the reasons I kind
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: of liked the Vikings. I did end up playing it,
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: but I made the difference between and Browning five points.
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: Markets seemed to have made it like three to three
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: and a half four. I thought that was too short.
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: It looks like I was probably right. It's probably closer
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: to five five and a half points. Okay, Well, coming
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: into the year, you can go back to Week sixteen
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: last year when these two teams played. The Bengals defense
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: still awful. Burrow was playing the Bengals need both teams
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: needed the game we're trying. The Bengals are three and
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: a half point favorites at home, so the power ratings lives.
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: Coming into the year, I had the Bengals as the
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: better team when fully healthy. We've seen how bad bon
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: Nicks has been, so I made this game before. If
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: everyone was at full strength in Denver respect the home
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: field be like Denver'd be like close to a pick
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: Denver minus won at most. So let's adjust for the
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: drop between Burrow and Browning. I can't get to over seven,
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: can't get to seven, so you're gonna give me over seven.
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna take it there. So I get that it's
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: scary playing Browning after another defense and get pressure. Maybe
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: makes a ton of mistakes again, but Knicks could too,
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: So I'll plan my flag on I don't think you're
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: going to see us seven and a half for much
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: of the week leading up into game time, so I'll
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: plan my flag on the Bengals plus seven and a half.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: All right, Kendrin's on Seattle plus one and a half,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Stucky's got the Bengals plus seven and a half, and
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: I am on the forty nine Ers minus three and
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: a half against the Jaguars. Time now for the main
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: event of our Tuesday episode. No betting week can start
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: without it. The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: to the show. What trends are we looking at before
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: we fire away on the Apps this week?
• 48:43
  Speaker 6: Well, so, guys, honestly, I feel like and Stucky talks
• 48:46
  Speaker 6: about this all the time, and I'm start sorry to
• 48:48
  Speaker 6: keep bringing this up, but the Titans, the numbers are
• 48:50
  Speaker 6: just stupid, and I feel like it's worth noting how
• 48:53
  Speaker 6: bad the ATS stuff has gotten with them. So Stucky
• 48:57
  Speaker 6: mentioned the three and seventeen ats plus twenty six, six,
• 49:01
  Speaker 6: twenty three and one ats last thirty seven, twenty five
• 49:04
  Speaker 6: and one last thirty three and losing ten straight ats
• 49:08
  Speaker 6: at home, which not this week but we'll deal with
• 49:10
  Speaker 6: in a week or two.
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: Just absolutely insane. I feel like the other story lost.
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: Seventeen of our twenty game stretch the worst ever, Evan.
• 49:19
  Speaker 5: I was gonna look at that.
• 49:20
  Speaker 6: I've had trouble with spends, but when I had some time,
• 49:23
  Speaker 6: it was going to be the next thing on my mind.
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: So I will get back to on that one. But
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: I feel like someone has done that before.
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: A Browns team from like the mid two.
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: Thousands something like that. But I feel like it's been done.
• 49:37
  Speaker 6: But the stretch in itself is just stupid, especially when
• 49:39
  Speaker 6: you consider the quarterback play.
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: The Mahome stuff this week is just a lot of fun.
• 49:44
  Speaker 6: So you guys are talking about the three point line,
• 49:47
  Speaker 6: it looks like Baltimore is getting minus two and a
• 49:49
  Speaker 6: half minus one twenty, so that plus three might be coming,
• 49:52
  Speaker 6: and that would be the largest home dog he has
• 49:55
  Speaker 6: been since Texas Tech. It was Shane Buckle, which was
• 50:00
  Speaker 6: Texas's quarterback back in November of twenty sixteen, the last
• 50:04
  Speaker 6: time he was plus Yeah, thank you, Stuck. I feel
• 50:07
  Speaker 6: like you were going to do that for me and
• 50:08
  Speaker 6: I appreciate it. Here's the best one. And I actually
• 50:11
  Speaker 6: just finished looking this up. So he's actually never won
• 50:14
  Speaker 6: as a home dog oh and nine and two in
• 50:17
  Speaker 6: the pros oh in seven of Texas Tech, so this
• 50:20
  Speaker 6: would be the first time he's ever won as a
• 50:21
  Speaker 6: home underdog. And the funny thing ish and two straight
• 50:24
  Speaker 6: up as a home dog, fifty five and twelve as
• 50:27
  Speaker 6: a favorite, So maybe something to look at there. The
• 50:30
  Speaker 6: only thing that I think is fun when Mahomes is
• 50:32
  Speaker 6: either an underdog or a favorite of blessed that a
• 50:34
  Speaker 6: field goal at home. He is just four and five
• 50:37
  Speaker 6: straight up. So in these tight games, Lamar Josh, there
• 50:42
  Speaker 6: might even be a Tom in there difficult opponents. So
• 50:46
  Speaker 6: I felt that one was kind of interesting. I'll give
• 50:48
  Speaker 6: you one more.
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: Dak Prescott.
• 50:50
  Speaker 6: So that line is up to seven now at at CD, lamb.
• 50:54
  Speaker 6: This would be tied for his biggest home underdog in
• 50:56
  Speaker 6: his career. Twenty eighteen against the Saints and Drew Brees
• 51:00
  Speaker 6: was the last time he was plus seven or higher
• 51:02
  Speaker 6: at home.
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: So interesting line there is. It's gone up a few
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: points with that CD.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Is there anything This might be obscure, but the Bucks
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: have won three straight games on game ending drives to
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: seal the victory luck alone, I mean, is there any
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: do we have anything awful?
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: Teams?
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: On on doing what you do in the fourth game.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: After doing that three in a row, it just feels
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: so unique in what the Bucks have done to get
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: to three and oh.
• 51:33
  Speaker 5: I'll give you this one.
• 51:34
  Speaker 6: So Bucks are the second team in the Wild carder
• 51:36
  Speaker 6: to start three and oh with three fourth quarter comebacks.
• 51:39
  Speaker 6: The most ironic thing about this run the Bucks are
• 51:42
  Speaker 6: also zero and three against the fourth quarter spread, So
• 51:46
  Speaker 6: they've not only made the comeback and done the job,
• 51:50
  Speaker 6: but they actually haven't covered in their fourth quarter spreads
• 51:53
  Speaker 6: because of the chaos on the other side. So the
• 51:55
  Speaker 6: only other team in the wildcard area since nineteen ninety
• 51:59
  Speaker 6: to do the three and oh with fourth quarter comebacks
• 52:01
  Speaker 6: Falcons in twenty fifteen. They ended eight and eight six
• 52:05
  Speaker 6: and ten against the spread and sucked. So this actually
• 52:09
  Speaker 6: might just be a fluke. But again, one team, guys,
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: I mean, nothing like that can be you know, taken
• 52:14
  Speaker 6: two seriously, But I will say this. Dampa was thirteen
• 52:17
  Speaker 6: and four fourth quarter spread last season, so this feels
• 52:20
  Speaker 6: like just something in Baker's blood.
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Baker has definitely clutched in the games, and to
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: be fair, they have a ton of offensive line injuries
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: and they're surriving, but two of the wins came against
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: the Jets and the Texans in the last second, which
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: doesn't look great. But their offensive line is in shambles
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: and they're three now, so you can't complain too much.
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: And that the Eagles have been extremely lucky too, so
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: these are this is a luckbox Bowl.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: Heavn't you have anything on the rapture?
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I do.
• 52:54
  Speaker 6: I mean Giants and Jets at home, I mean in
• 52:56
  Speaker 6: primetime again this week. It feels like the raptor has
• 52:59
  Speaker 6: something to do with that. I put this out five
• 53:01
  Speaker 6: and thirty four Giants and Jets and night games. We
• 53:04
  Speaker 6: get the Jets again this week. But maybe the other
• 53:07
  Speaker 6: side of the rapture is the fact that they have
• 53:08
  Speaker 6: to play the Dolphins. Like, maybe that's what the rapture
• 53:11
  Speaker 6: is is you kind of get this matchup and the
• 53:13
  Speaker 6: world just ends at halftime in that game, and.
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: You're talking to us as God right now.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: If I get raptured, I'm letting you guys rock paper
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: scissors for OJ and Monica.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Can't we just split custody, like I get one stuck
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: against another one?
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, but who wants to you get one pregnant
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: and one not.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't want all that responsibility. I'll take the
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: non impregnated shrimp on my way to heaven, I suppose you.
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I already have a pregnant one in my house.
• 53:47
  Speaker 4: I got a dog. It's post surgery, so bring it on.
• 53:51
  Speaker 6: Yeah, those shrimp possible bulls have to be terrible and
• 53:54
  Speaker 6: sell the out pass, all right.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: It sounds like my It sounds like the Dolphins first
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: half spread according to the Rapture Stats. Thanks so much, Evan,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: that's going to do it for today's episode special thanks
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold. The Favorites
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: will return with our next episode on Thursday, right here
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page, where we will talk
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: Week four bets and make our official plays for the week.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: We'll see you next time here on the Favorites presented
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: by DraftKings. It's cash these tickets Happy Rapture.
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler