Latest / Bull Market Conversations with Fexingo: Rallies, Momentum, and Riding Market Strength / How SpaceX Is Reshaping the IPO Playbook in 2026
Transcript
- Lucas: So there was this headline yesterday that I think captures something really interesting about this bull market. CNBC ran a piece asking whether SpaceX might be the ultimate blueprint for a new wave of mega-cap IPOs. Luna: I saw that. And it's not the first time someone's floated that idea. But the timing feels different now—we're in July 2026, the S&P is at 7,449, the Nasdaq is at 25,717. The market is clearly hungry for big new names. Lucas: Exactly. And SpaceX is the ultimate private-market phenomenon. It's been valued north of $200 billion for a while now, and it's not even public. The question is: what happens when a company that large finally does come to market? Luna: Well, the article's argument was that SpaceX's journey—staying private forever, building a rabid investor base through secondary sales, and only hinting at an IPO—could become the model for future mega-caps. Lucas: Right. And I think that's already happening. Look at Stripe, look at Databricks, look at a dozen other private companies valued at $50 billion or more. They're all following a similar playbook: stay private longer, let employees cash out in secondaries, and keep the mystique alive. Luna: It's almost like the IPO has become a last resort—a funding event you do when you've exhausted private capital. And that's a huge shift from even five years ago. Lucas: Absolutely. And the bull market we're in right now is enabling that. With interest rates stable at around 3.63 percent on the fed funds rate, and real GDP growth at 2.1 percent annualised, there's plenty of liquidity sloshing around. Private investors are willing to pay up for growth stories. Luna: But here's the thing: the IPO market hasn't been completely dead. We've seen a few big listings in 2025 and 2026. But they've been selective. And the ones that have come public have often been met with huge pops—which only reinforces the idea that waiting builds more demand. Lucas: Yeah, the 'pop' is almost a feature now. If a company IPOs and only goes up 10 percent on day one, people feel disappointed. The expectation is for a 50 or 100 percent first-day gain. And that only happens when there's a lot of pent-up demand from retail and institutional investors who couldn't get in during the private phase. Luna: It changes the whole calculus for the company too. Why leave money on the table by pricing your IPO too low when you can let the secondary market do the price discovery? SpaceX has essentially been doing a rolling IPO through secondary transactions for years. Lucas: And that's the real innovation. The traditional IPO process—roadshows, book-building, a single price—feels almost archaic compared to the continuous price discovery you get in private secondary markets. Companies like SpaceX have thousands of shareholders already, just not public ones. Luna: Which raises a question: when SpaceX does eventually IPO—if it ever does—will it even need to raise capital? It might just be a liquidity event for employees and early investors. Lucas: That's the bull case for the stock. No dilution, no need to sell new shares. Just a direct listing of existing shares. It would be the largest direct listing in history by a massive margin. And the market would probably gobble it up. Luna: But let's talk about the risks. The narrative-driven valuation. SpaceX is a phenomenal company, no doubt. But its valuation is partly driven by Elon Musk's persona, by the Mars mission, by the Starlink revenue story. Those are all real, but they're also hard to model. Lucas: Right. And that's where the blueprints start to get dangerous. If every private mega-cap tries to copy the SpaceX playbook, you end up with a lot of companies trading on narrative rather than fundamentals. And in a bull market, that can persist for a long time. But when the cycle turns? Luna: Yeah, that's the worry. We've seen it before with the dot-com bubble, with the SPAC boom in 2021. Narrative-driven stocks can fall hard when sentiment shifts. Lucas: But here's the counterargument: the companies following this blueprint today are generally better businesses. SpaceX, Stripe, Databricks—they have real revenue, real customers, real moats. They're not WeWork. They're not even Uber at IPO. They're mature, profitable or near-profitable, with dominant positions. Luna: That's fair. And the market is rewarding that. Look at the performance of high-quality growth stocks this week. Palantir is up over 15 percent in five days. CrowdStrike up 11 percent. Datadog up almost 9 percent. The market is willing to pay up for companies with strong fundamentals and a compelling story. Lucas: And that's the sweet spot. The SpaceX blueprint isn't just about staying private longer. It's about building a company that can command a premium because of its strategic importance, its technology lead, its network effects. Those are the traits that make a mega-cap IPO work in this environment. Luna: You know, it's funny—you and I talk about this kind of thing all the time on the show. And I think a big reason we can do that, without any ads or sponsors, is because of listeners who chip in. There's a small group that supports us monthly through buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It's not a big ask, but it's what keeps these conversations going. Lucas: Yeah, we're listener-funded, and that means we can talk about whatever we think is actually interesting—like how SpaceX is reshaping IPO dynamics—without having to sell you anything. So if you find value in that, it's easy to be part of it. No pressure. Luna: Exactly. And we really mean it when we say thank you to those who already do. It makes a difference. Lucas: So back to the blueprint. The other angle here is what this means for the broader market. If SpaceX does IPO in the next year or two, its market cap could be $300 billion or more. That would instantly make it one of the largest companies in the S&P 500. And its inclusion would change the composition of the index. Luna: That's a good point. The S&P 500 is already heavily weighted toward tech. Adding a SpaceX would only accelerate that. But it's also a bet on a specific vision of the future—space, satellites, interplanetary travel. That's a high-beta bet for an index fund. Lucas: Right. And index investors wouldn't have a choice. They'd have to own it. That's one reason why the passive indexing debate is so relevant right now. We talked about that a few episodes ago, but it ties in here too. Luna: Another implication is for the venture capital and private equity ecosystem. If the SpaceX blueprint becomes the norm, VCs will have to hold their investments longer, which changes their return profiles. And it might push more capital into secondary markets. Lucas: Yeah, we're already seeing that. There are now dedicated secondary funds that buy and sell private company shares. It's becoming a more liquid market. And that liquidity is what makes the 'wait longer' strategy feasible for employees who want to cash out. Luna: So the question is: will we see a wave of mega-cap IPOs in 2027 or 2028? Or will companies keep pushing the timeline further? Lucas: I think it depends on the interest rate environment. If rates stay around 3.6 percent, the opportunity cost of staying private is low. But if rates rise, the pressure to go public and raise cheaper equity capital increases. For now, the bull market is accommodating the wait. Luna: And there's also the regulatory angle. The SEC has been talking about reforming IPO rules, making it easier for companies to list without a traditional underwriting process. That could accelerate the direct listing trend. Lucas: Absolutely. If the SEC streamlines direct listings, you could see a flood of companies skip the IPO altogether. That would be a fundamental change in how public markets work. And it would be a direct result of the SpaceX blueprint proving it's possible. Luna: So to sum up: SpaceX isn't just a company—it's a template. And the bull market is the perfect environment for that template to be adopted widely. But it comes with risks around narrative pricing and index concentration. Lucas: Right. And we should keep an eye on Dan Ives moving to a new venture. He's been one of the most vocal tech analysts, and his next move might signal where he thinks the opportunities are. If he's betting on the SpaceX blueprint, that's a strong signal. Luna: Yeah, Ives has always been a bull on tech. His departure from Wedbush could mean he's starting something that focuses on private market analysis. That would be a logical next step given where the action is. Lucas: It all points in the same direction: the center of gravity in equity markets is shifting from public to private, and the bull market is accelerating that shift. The question isn't whether SpaceX will IPO—it's whether its approach becomes the new normal. Luna: And for investors, that means paying attention to private markets even if you're mostly in public stocks. Because the next generation of mega-caps is being shaped there, right now. Lucas: Exactly. And we'll keep following that story. For now, thanks for listening—and if you want to support the show, you know where to find us.