Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Is the NEW Pro-Bitcoin Fed Appointee About to LAUNCH a Super-Cycle?? | Simply SatoSHE

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Is the NEW Pro-Bitcoin Fed Appointee About to LAUNCH a Super-Cycle?? | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
The war between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve is literally
0:03
weeks away from hitting a tipping point.
0:05
With the midterm elections coming next year, Trump's next
0:09
Fed appointee might just be the wild card that catches everyone
0:13
offside while everyone's distracted with the AI bubble
0:16
and the death of the Bitcoin four year cycle, what's
0:20
happening behind closed doors at the White House will affect what
0:24
happens in 2026 more than anything else.
0:29
Today we're we're going to break it all down and shine a light on
0:32
something no one else is focusing on.
0:35
Welcome back to Satoshi I guess. A potential fed.
0:43
Chair is here too. I don't know.
0:46
Are we allowed to say that? Potential.
0:49
He's a respected person that I can tell you.
0:52
Thank you, Kevin. Kevin Hassett, currently the
0:54
White House's top economic advisor, has surged to the top
0:58
of the list of frontrunners to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed
1:02
chair. Multiple media outlets and
1:04
prediction markets now give him strong odds, some estimating 70%
1:10
chance or higher. But why does this really matter?
1:13
Under Hassett, many expect the Fed to pivot toward lower
1:17
interest rates and finally allow with the White House's push for
1:21
looser monetary policy. In other words, this is textbook
1:25
fuel for hard assets, and already markets are reacting.
1:29
Some investors are warning that under a dovish Fed, Hassett
1:34
could weaken the dollar and stir anxiety in bond markets.
1:38
They're starting to realize what bitcoiners have known for a
1:41
while now, and even banks are realizing how hard the dollar is
1:45
struggling. It's getting attacked on all
1:47
sides by a weak bond market, liquidity shortage and an
1:52
economy that was supposed to be a boom but has gone side to side
1:56
all year long. I think it's actually the more
1:58
inching factor is why it's been flat for so long, because the
2:01
crash itself, like even in the 2017 bull run, that was a fairly
2:06
smooth and, and kind of parabolic bull run, but it still
2:09
had multiple sharp 30% corrections along the way, like
2:12
several. Yeah.
2:14
And it would just have these V corrections and shoot back up.
2:17
So it's not necessarily that this one's had really big
2:19
magnitude. I mean, we touched like 75 K
2:21
back in April, for example. It's not really the size of the
2:26
corrections, it's more of the length of time of, of lasting in
2:30
the state. So the fact that we were 100K in
2:33
November of last year and we're, you know, after a year we're
2:36
basically flat. Now we're down to some extent.
2:40
That's I think the more noteworthy item.
2:42
So I don't really view Bitcoin as crashing.
2:44
I view it as basically stagnating at this time that I
2:47
think that's the the more noteworthy event.
2:50
There's a lot of factors that can go into that.
2:52
I think that liquidity is a factor.
2:55
So we do have tighter liquidity now, but when you look at kind
3:00
of broader measures of liquidity, they're really not
3:02
that bad. And I don't expect them to get
3:04
that bad. I think we're kind of in the in
3:06
the bottoming phase for domestic base liquidity at the current
3:10
time. And broader liquidity is, is
3:12
mostly fine. So I think that liquidity is
3:15
doing it no favors this particular month.
3:18
I think it's a, there's a broader issue.
3:20
It's it's AI potentially sucking some kind of capital enthusiasm
3:24
away from Bitcoin. It's kind of the fastest horse
3:26
narrative. Obviously gold has had a really
3:29
good year. And then there's also to some
3:33
extent the disillusionment with the other catalyst for Bitcoin.
3:37
And so for example, you know, one of the most popular
3:40
questions I got on Bitcoin podcasts in early this year was
3:44
what do you think about a sovereign Bitcoin reserve?
3:46
And I, I found that the most, the most boring question and
3:49
people had to ask it, but I found it and I even said it a
3:51
couple times that it was like the most boring question because
3:56
one, as far as kind of the ethos of Bitcoin, I, I find the
4:00
decentralized aspects way more interesting than what is the
4:03
nation state going to do with it?
4:04
And two, I'd said I'd rather kind of have a price estimate
4:08
that doesn't include, you know, Uncle Sam buying a half a
4:11
million coins. I'd rather be surprised the
4:14
upside if that does happen then to factor that all in and then
4:17
be surprised when it doesn't. Because my view at the time was
4:21
that sure, they're going to ring fence the coins they already
4:23
have that they don't owe back to someone else, but that any
4:27
accumulation from there I think would would probably be marginal
4:30
at best. And I'd be happy to be proven
4:32
wrong. But that was kind of my base
4:33
case and I would just plan for that.
4:35
I think a decent chunk of of Bitcoiners were kind of really
4:39
bullish on that outcome, really bullish on a lot of things.
4:43
And then when those expectations don't really align, even though
4:46
it's otherwise a pretty good environment for Bitcoin,
4:49
especially looking over 2-3 years rather than just the 12
4:52
month period, I start to get deflated expectations.
4:55
In her latest newsletter, macro strategist Lynn Alden argues
4:59
what many frame as a new trade fleeing bonds into gold, Bitcoin
5:05
and real assets, which is really a continuation of a decades long
5:09
trend. Even though sacred the Terry of
5:11
Treasury, Scott Besson seems to be in denial.
5:14
Seriously, who's in charge of his ex account?
5:17
I don't know. For years, declining interest
5:19
rates, easy money supply growth and loose fiscal policy let
5:24
asset prices inflate. Households, especially the
5:27
wealthy, saw net worth soar relative to wages and income.
5:32
But that game may be ending. Interest rates bottomed out,
5:36
bond yields jumped, and suddenly bonds, once thought safe, became
5:42
losers. Except to Scott Besson, who is
5:45
clearly in denial anyway. Over 2020 to 2025, sovereign
5:49
bonds had basically their worst five year period of performance
5:55
ever, according to Lynn Alden. As a result, many investors have
5:58
chased de dollarization, piling into hard assets.
6:02
Hard assets aren't really a hedge anymore.
6:05
They're becoming the center of investors portfolios.
6:09
The. Tendency of a government to want
6:15
to debase its currency over time is there's no system that beats
6:20
that. You can pick dictators, you can
6:22
pick representatives, you can do anything but but the people
6:29
there, there will be a a push toward weaker currencies.
6:34
And of course, that is I mentioned very briefly in the
6:37
annual report that the, the fiscal policy is what scares me
6:41
in the United States because it's, it's made the way it is
6:47
and, and all the motivations are doing a lot of things that will
6:56
cause can cause trouble with with money.
7:00
But that's not limited to the United States.
7:03
It's all over the world and some places it gets out of control
7:08
regularly. As I know, they know, they know
7:13
they, they devalue at rates that are breathtaking.
7:19
And that's, that's continued. I mean, people can study
7:22
economics and you can have all kinds of arrangements, but in
7:26
the end, if you've got people that control the currency, you
7:32
can, you can issue for money and you will, or you can engage in
7:41
clipping currencies like they used to do centuries ago or
7:48
there will always be people. It's the nature of their job.
7:52
I don't, I don't, I'm not singing with them out as
7:55
particularly evil or anything like that.
7:58
But the natural course of government is to is to make the
8:03
currency worth less over time and and it's got important
8:09
consequences and it's very hard to build checks and balances
8:13
into the system to keep that from happening.
8:17
So what could go wrong? Here are some things to look out
8:20
for 1st, and most obviously, inflation.
8:23
If the Fed under Hassett cuts rates too aggressively, he could
8:27
face backlash for reigniting inflation and eroding purchasing
8:31
power further. A very real concern to most
8:34
consumers, especially people in our generation, millennials and
8:38
Gen. ZA.
8:39
Very real concern to most consumers.
8:42
Second, he will need to retain credibility and confidence in
8:45
his leadership. If investors sense a politically
8:48
influenced Fed too aligned with the White House, it could
8:52
undermine his faith in his independent supervision of the
8:55
monetary policy. And Hassett's biggest potential
8:59
pitfall could be asset bubbles and associated volatility.
9:03
Inflation sensitive assets, for example, could could overheat,
9:07
while others, like already overvalued equities, could
9:10
suffer sharp drawdowns. When you're in fiscal dominance,
9:15
when debt to GDP is as high as is, you raise rates, you raise
9:19
deficits, and deficits are stimulative.
9:23
Oops. If you cut rates, well,
9:27
especially once inflation's a little elevated to lower
9:30
deficits, to cut interest rates to lower deficits, which is in
9:33
theory lower deficits should be non stimulative or
9:37
contractionary. You're stimulating by cutting
9:40
rates. So like he has a choice of how
9:42
he wants to inflate, how he wants to be.
9:44
Arthur Burns. And that's what he said at the
9:47
time. And that's it's starting to play
9:49
out. And what your anecdote suggests
9:51
is the real estate community doesn't understand that yet, but
9:54
they're gonna soon, which is how do they want rates to go up?
9:57
They want rates to go up with inflation going up or do they
10:00
want rates to go up with inflation going down?
10:02
Because either way, they'll go up if he cuts rates and
10:05
inflation picks up and they'll go up if he raises rates because
10:10
he's raising rates. And oh, by the way, that makes
10:13
the debt less sustainable and therefore higher rate on a less
10:16
sustainable debt. So there are still a lot of
10:19
people I don't think that appreciate that outcome.
10:23
I agree with you 100%. You said something before that
10:25
people are finally kind of seeing the bigger picture,
10:28
right? The fact that everyone and their
10:29
mother in the mainstream media is not talking about the
10:31
debasement trade, right? I was like you and I have been
10:33
talking about this for what, five years, seven years?
10:35
You know, it's I feel like Bruce Willis, like, come on in.
10:37
Welcome to the party, pal. But it's not a debasement trade.
10:40
It's a debasement trend. Like this ain't going to stop.
10:43
And oh, by the way, the only way you stop the rates go up with
10:49
hikes or rates go up with cuts is you devalue the heck out of
10:54
the currency and you basically buy down the debt.
10:57
And provisionally, we've talked about this before.
11:00
It's on the books that they could do it with gold.
11:02
It ain't going to happen at gold 4000.
11:04
It ain't going to happen with the gold 8000.
11:06
You know, gold 20,000 is probably the opening bid to have
11:08
a real effect with that. So point being is like, I think
11:12
people are seeing the symptoms, right?
11:13
Your friend saying, oh, rates went up when they cut rates.
11:16
I don't get it. That's the girl washing up on
11:18
the beach at the beginning of the movie and Jaws, right?
11:20
Like, oh, it's just a boating accident.
11:22
And then, you know, next comes the poor little boy, you know,
11:25
and then they're going to catch a shark, right?
11:26
And there, you know, 50 year mortgages or Trump's going to
11:29
tweet out the Walmart CEO thing. Well, Thanksgiving spending's
11:33
down. And then they Fact Check them
11:34
and they're like, well, there's 6 less items.
11:37
There were 21 items on the menu last year.
11:38
There was 15 this year. And they're almost all store
11:41
brands versus brand names last year.
11:42
But yeah, other than that, right?
11:44
That's the, that's where they catch the shark.
11:46
And everyone's like, hey, we got it.
11:47
It's over. And they're like, the bite
11:50
radius on that animal doesn't match the bite radius on the
11:53
victims. That's not your shark, right?
11:55
And then finally, we're going to see the shark.
11:56
And when we finally see the shark, everyone in the real
11:59
estate business is going to go, Oh my God, if they cut rates,
12:03
we're screwed. If like raise rates were
12:05
screwed, sell your house now as fast as you can.
12:10
And you know then what? I don't know.
12:12
But people don't appreciate that they are painted in a corner
12:16
yet. They know they need to debase
12:17
but they don't really get like. Back in 2021, the Fed printed
12:22
money and everything went up. Stocks, NFTS, dog coins, your
12:27
grandma's Beanie Baby collection.
12:29
But this time the system is weaker, debt is bigger, the
12:34
world trust the government, and the Fed weigh less.
12:38
So instead of everything pumping this time around, it's likely
12:42
that only hard, scarce assets will possibly RIP the hardest.
12:47
This is the difference between a bubble and a monetary
12:50
evacuation. And once people realize how
12:53
broken the money is, they're going to panic run into anything
12:56
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While some are still rearranging the deck chairs on the sinking
14:48
Titanic, it looks like many institutional players are
14:51
actually starting to react in a big way.
14:57
Over the last few weeks, we have seen an avalanche of
14:59
endorsements by tradfy institutions.
15:02
The CFTC just approved spot Bitcoin trading to help make
15:07
America the crypto capital of the world.
15:10
My crypto goes mainstream. The Commodities Futures Trading
15:13
Commission announcing the launch of the first government
15:15
supervised crypto trading platform.
15:18
It allows Americans to instantly buy, sell and finance digital
15:21
assets. Fox businesses, Darren Botello
15:23
live in Washington with all the details.
15:25
Darren, good morning to you. Hi, good morning, Maria.
15:28
Of course, right now as we all know, you can buy and sell
15:31
crypto online already. But this is the first time, like
15:34
you said, a spot trading platform is getting the full
15:37
backing of the federal government.
15:38
So why does this even matter to investors that the CFTC is
15:42
backing this new bit nominal platform?
15:44
These other platforms are legally operating.
15:47
But here's the catch Maria, they're often called the Wild
15:50
West. Basically, it's buyer beware.
15:52
We've seen this with the collapse of FTX and customers
15:55
eventually losing out on huge profits.
15:58
They would have had their money stayed safe in the market, they
16:01
would have had it. Now with this bitnomial
16:03
platform, there are stricter standards for transparency,
16:06
security and consumer protection to prevent an FTX style
16:10
collapse, exclusively with acting CFTC Chairman Caroline
16:13
Pham ahead of this new platform going live.
16:18
Not only do we. Want Americans to come back home
16:20
and to be trading here where they know that they have the
16:23
protections that they deserve. But again, that means that
16:26
American companies that are involved in the crypto industry,
16:28
they're going to want to build here, they're going to want to
16:31
invest here, they're going to want to hire here.
16:33
So this is overall a net benefit to the economy.
16:39
And bit. No Meal tells us ahead of their
16:41
announcement. The actual launch of the
16:42
platform is set for next week. Maria, that sounds cringe.
16:45
When you don't say just Bitcoin, but I'll take it.
16:48
The CEO of Fidelity, one of the US is biggest investment firms,
16:53
is apparently a bitcoiner. So I don't know if it's because
16:58
I started early or I don't know, maybe as I get older, I'm just
17:02
kind of old fashioned, but like I kind of like Bitcoin.
17:07
I, I don't own tons of coins, but I own Bitcoin and I think it
17:13
will continue to play a role in the savings hierarchy of lots of
17:20
people. And it's, it is the gold
17:27
standard, so to speak, you know, in the crypto world and it's
17:32
been around and it's solid and it's persisted and it's a it's a
17:38
good system. So I'm long term very
17:42
comfortable. And I think that that will
17:45
continue to be something that we will factor into our thinking
17:49
and our quest to provide options for our customers.
17:54
And I'd like to be able to be one of the people that makes it
17:59
continues to make it a little more accessible because for all
18:03
of the genius that went into designing Bitcoin, it probably
18:10
could have used some IDO resources maybe to help help
18:16
more people engage with it sooner.
18:19
Bank of. America Merrill Lynch is
18:21
recommending an allocation. The company's advisors will be
18:24
able to recommend a handful of Bitcoin ETF's from different
18:29
asset managers. And Vanguard, whose CEO swore
18:32
they would never change their minds on Bitcoin, now embraces
18:36
the asset Spot Bitcoin. ETF's question came in, Hey, we
18:40
know you're not offering one. Have you changed your mind?
18:43
What would it take for you to change your mind?
18:45
We don't plan to and we don't like, we're not going to change
18:49
our minds around this unless the asset class changes before.
18:55
Why? First of all, we don't believe
18:56
it belongs like a Bitcoin ETF belongs in a long term
19:00
portfolio. Someone's saving for the
19:01
retirement. It's a speculative asset.
19:03
That's exactly it. And the.
19:05
Funds that we offer invest in asset classes that actually have
19:10
underlying cash flow. So like we mentioned stocks,
19:13
you're buying the forward earnings of a cup of a company.
19:15
That's right and that bond right has coupon and.
19:18
Principal payment? Yeah, you're going to pay.
19:19
Me back and you're. Going to pay me.
19:20
Something for lending you the money exactly right.
19:22
So they both can be valued. And that's for for us, we
19:26
understand why they would rise up in a portfolio and the role
19:29
do a play and we can model them something like Bitcoin is just
19:34
too vulnerable and it's not a it's not a store of value.
19:36
It hasn't been in this. It's very volatile there.
19:39
When stocks got hammered in recent crises that Bitcoin went
19:43
right with them. And so it is speculative, really
19:47
tough to think about how it belongs in a long term portfolio
19:51
and even beyond. Wall Street, we're seeing
19:53
worldwide adoption pick up speed.
19:55
Abu Dhabi just tripled down on Bitcoin with $520 million, you
20:00
know, in terms. Of their holdings and when they
20:02
added to this position. Yeah.
20:05
So you can see that they've more than tripled their position
20:08
right in the weeks and months up to the sell off.
20:12
So you know, it hit a record high in October and we can see
20:14
that they've tripled their position during the third
20:17
quarter. They disclosed a position at the
20:20
end of September that was worth around $520 million.
20:24
And we can see that this is really going to be a part of
20:26
their portfolio going forward. They're saying that they want to
20:28
diversify it and they really see it as the digital equivalent of
20:31
gold. And by the way, I.
20:33
Should correct myself. I meant to say half a billion
20:35
dollars, not half a trillion. That would be tremendous.
20:37
But Ben, getting back to you in London, when it comes to the Abu
20:42
Dhabi Investment Council, just give us a sense of how this
20:45
holding Bitcoin fits in with their overall portfolio.
20:48
What is their investment strategy?
20:51
Yeah, sure. So do an invest to do an
20:53
investment unit of Mubadala. They're kind of run separately.
20:56
But this really seems to be part of the overall strategy by Abu
21:00
Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates more generally to
21:03
become a hub for crypto as well as just to really become a
21:06
player in the markets. You can see that Mubadala itself
21:09
also has significant holdings in Bitcoin ETFs.
21:13
They've set up new funds such as MGX that have done deals with
21:17
crypto exchanges like finance. And you can really see that, you
21:21
know, they see this as an important long term
21:23
diversification play and how. Significant.
21:26
Would you say Abu Dhabi Investment Council's move into
21:29
the crypto sector is not just for this entity but for the
21:33
region at large? Yeah, well, look it.
21:36
Really gives a growing legitimacy.
21:38
You know, there's been a lot of questions about, you know,
21:40
institutional interest in it. Is it here to stay or is it just
21:44
a fleeting thing? You know, we do see a lot of
21:46
sell offs in the Bitcoin ETF's recently as investor sentiment
21:51
has turned. But it looks like the Abu Dhabi
21:53
Investment Council is going to be in it for the long term.
21:55
And this just really gives it legitimacy when you know, a
21:58
state owned fund by one of the richest countries is plowing
22:02
some of the reserves money into this.
22:05
You can see that this is something that they really
22:07
believe in, right? I think most.
22:09
People have heard of Mubadala. What you mentioned is the
22:11
sovereign wealth fund. What exactly is the relationship
22:13
between the Abu Dhabi Investment Council and Mubadala?
22:16
I know that you said it's a unit of it, but how did that develop
22:20
over time? Yeah, sure.
22:22
I'm so they used to be a separate state owned fund.
22:25
They're mostly invested in private markets, particularly in
22:28
North America. They've since been trying to
22:31
diversify. A few years ago, just to sort of
22:33
simplify the management, they were folded into Mubadala, but
22:36
they're still run very separately.
22:39
You know they have their own investment strategy that's
22:41
different from the rest of Mubadala and but you can see
22:44
that both of them and their ultimate parent company, they're
22:47
both very interested in crypto and are looking for ways that
22:50
they can play this so before. We wrap up the show.
22:53
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get your discount today. Now, let's wrap up the show.
23:16
So yeah, the Fed, led by someone like Hassett, might matter a lot
23:20
to anyone not holding hard assets.
23:22
But for bitcoiners, this could be the moment.
23:25
The moment it stops being a trade and the moment that we
23:28
stop feeling like we've been in a bear market all year round.
23:32
And the moment that it becomes the new default.
23:37
And if you're not paying attention right now, you might
23:39
just miss the beginning of the biggest wealth shift in our
23:43
lifetimes. So get on the boat, buy some
23:46
Bitcoin, take it into self custody because this could be
23:50
your only chance. If you like the show, smash the
23:53
like button, hit the subscribe and drop a comment.
23:56
Do you think that bitcoins about to go full beast mode or are we
23:59
all just losing our minds? I'll see you on the next one.
24:03
Thanks for watching and remember to stack, slay and stay bullish
24:08
baby.