Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/29/26: Trump Spirals On Iran War, Oil Price Spike, Dystopian AI Car Surveillance

Transcript

4/29/26: Trump Spirals On Iran War, Oil Price Spike, Dystopian AI Car Surveillance · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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• 0:34
  Speaker 3: All right, happy Wednesday morning, Welcome to Breaking Points, Emily.
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Our president has reached a peak state of delusion. I
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: think I do. There could be higher. I was going
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: to say a higher peak. We've had a previously unknown peak.
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: We don't know what the ceiling. That's true, we don't
• 0:49
  Speaker 4: know that there is a ceiling.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: I think we're going to get to find out.
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, Ryan was using the word flailing before we
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: went to air, so there will be some flailing that
• 0:56
  Speaker 4: will cover.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: It actually reminds me y debate with Scott Jennings is
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: airing tonight Live nine pm on the After Party Channel.
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: Who was speaking? What should we plug because it already happened.
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: Well, we didn't do before and after votes. It's not
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: a voting debate.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: Well, you're the moderator. You gotta you can decide who won.
• 1:15
  Speaker 5: That's true.
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: So first of all, I mean, I'm you know that
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: we disagree on immigration, so there's a question of then
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: who won the debate, who like out maneuvered the other
• 1:25
  Speaker 4: person in the debate. I would say you won the room,
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: and I would say you out maneuvered. So that's that's
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: my take. That's the preview. But we still you didn't
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: persuade me.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: That's okay.
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: In some ways you persuaded me. You had some interesting
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: history that Ryan brought in. So tune in Live tonight
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: that will be on at nine pm and you could
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: watch it of course afterwards as well on the After
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: Party channel. But Ryan lots of news to get to today.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: Premium subscribers. If you're not a premium subscriber, go ahead
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  Speaker 4: had a Breakingpoints dot com and get a subscription, otherwise
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: no problem. If not you had like comment subscribe, those
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: help us a lot as well. But big, big, big
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: show today, Huge news about OPAK that broke yesterday morning.
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: Crystal and Soccer covered a bit of it, but there's
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: all kinds of fallout that we're going to get to markets.
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, Ryan Jenny Diamond morning yesterday of a bond
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: imminent bond crisis.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: Yes, And the good news is BP, British Petroleum announced
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: doubling of profits yesterday, which is only fair because without BP,
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: the US wouldn't have had to topple the Shaw right
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: and yes no, or install the Shaw, stopp all the
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: Democratic government and nationalized BP and install the Shaw, leading
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: to the Iruning Revolution. So ben ip BP just stays winning, right,
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: So congratulations to them.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: Ran, I'm really glad we're going to talk about FAISA
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: and surveillance in general.
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: There's a huge fight happening on Capitol Hill right now.
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: Obviously, Republicans are trying to pass government funding legislation and
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: a few are holding the line. Thomas Massey obviously holding
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: the line on that it's been a big flip flop
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: for House Speaker Mike Johnson, no surprise at all. But
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: we're going to break down this big fight over surveillance
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: that's happening on Capito Hill. Some Democrats actually working to
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: save Trump's massive surveillance powers right now. So we're going
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: to break all of that down. We have a break
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: up our chat each who's going to join us from Jacob,
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: I learn how to pronounce his name merchet Each.
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: That's basically it. He told me, March teach is the
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: way to remember it. Oh, March teach, but I like yours.
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: We'll find out who's right in the middle of the show,
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: and so stay tuned. Well, he did a really good investigation,
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: just taking every Peter Thiele email in the Epstein files
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: and stringing them together to help us kind of understand
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: exactly how deep and which directions the Epstein relationship with
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: Peter Tiel went in a lot with Crypto obviously, and
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: how that friendship developed, how deep that friendship went. So
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: I'm really glad that Branco is going to be joining us.
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: And then Ryan we're going to talk about this fight
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: over Glefass, which I guess I'm glad that it's happening.
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: But we'll see where Republicans go.
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: This is a huge Maha civil war moment, the left
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: kind of joining with Maha as a opportunity to take
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: out a huge I mean, like one of the biggest criminal.
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: Chemicals that we have with us.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: And we'll have an AOC clip. We'll also have some
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: Lee's Elden back and forth. Rosa Deloro AOC plus Maha.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: Is that a coalition.
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: We'll see how long it's a fragile coalition.
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: Apparently the Trump Maja one was pretty fragile too.
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: That was I feel like that was kind of obvious.
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: All right, then we.
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: Have two more guests, So Ryan, we're going to talk
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: about why TikTok won't verify your crystal in Zack.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: That's not the essence of the segment, but yeah.
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: No, that's it's all. It's only that's all we're talking about.
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to be joined by leaving Mohammad, who
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: was a top TikTok official on their on their congressional
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: policy team, so he was interacting with Congress for years
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: as Congress is trying to get them to stop, you know,
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: putting up so much evidence of Israel's genocide. He's now
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: running for Congress in Utah. He actually just won the
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: Democratic endorsement for the primary in Utah's first district. So
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: he'll he'll join us, and then Professor Pape he's back.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: Right, and so we'll be going through the latest in
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: the Iran war with Professor Pape as reminder Breakingpoints dot com.
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: So we can go to get a premium subscription. So
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: let's go ahead and get started with the show. We
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: can put a five up on the screen. This is
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: a truth social post from Donald Trump yesterday, where he wrote,
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: Iran has just informed us that they are in a
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: quote state of collapse. They want us to quote open
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: the horror moves straight as soon as possible as they
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: try to figure out their leadership situation, which I believe.
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: They will be able to do. Thank you for your
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: Then, hours later in the evening, at a state dinner
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: for King Charles, Donald Trump had this to say, asex
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: from the.
• 6:17
  Speaker 6: Trenches of World War One to the beaches of Normandy,
• 6:20
  Speaker 6: from the frozen hills of Korea to the scorching sands
• 6:24
  Speaker 6: of North Africa and the Middle East. And we're doing
• 6:27
  Speaker 6: a little Middle East work right now too, if you
• 6:29
  Speaker 6: might know, and we're doing very well. We have militarily
• 6:33
  Speaker 6: defeated that particular opponent, and we're never going to let
• 6:38
  Speaker 6: that opponent ever. Charles agrees with me even more.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: Than I do.
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: We're never going to let that opponent have a nuclear weapon.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: They know that, and they've known it right now.
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: Very powerfully.
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: Invoking King Charles Sing.
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: He agrees, even when it's more than even more than
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: I do, that we must prevent around from getting a
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: nuclear weapon.
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: A six.
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: We pop this up on the screen and then get
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: your reaction. Ryan Anne Marie Horden over at Bloomberg put
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: together this juxtaposition of the reporting from New York Times
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: on the Wall Street Journal yesterday and where negotiations stand
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: NYT Trump Pestol advisors. He is not satisfied with Iran's
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: latest proposal to reopen the strait of horror moves and
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: the war. According to multiple people briefed on discussions in
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: the situation room on Monday, the Journal, Trump and his
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: national security team are skeptical of Iran's offer of a
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: deal that would see the strade of Horror moves open
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: and discussions about its nuclear work tabled. US officials said, Ran,
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: help us, to the best of our ability, understand what's
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: happening right now.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: Just for fun, let's put a five back up there,
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: because this is one of the most delightful the truth
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: like fantastical productions of his mind that we've had splayed
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: up on truth social So if we're to believe the
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: president here, Iran called him or maybe they went through
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: mediators and said, we are in a quote state of collapse,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: and please open the strait yep, and we'll get back
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: to you very soon when we have figured out our
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: leadership situation. And Trump then in parentheses, has great confidence
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: that they will soon be able to do that because
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: he's you know, he produced regime change, as he reminds
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: us constantly. So I wonder if you polled the global
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: public or the American public and said from one to ten, like,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: what is the degree of truth in that truth? I
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: suspect you'd get an average of about one point eight.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: Maybe like that is he's not even trying at this point.
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: I don't think that would even surprise him, right, I
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: mean he is still trying. So actually, while you were sleeping,
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: Trump posted this truth social.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: Oh this nine twenty nine am, right as.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: The that was yet nine twenty nine am yesterday.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: Straight for the markets, just going to right for the markets.
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: He was ready while you were sleeping last night four
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: h five am Eastern Time. Donald Trump posts Iran can't
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: get their act together. They don't know how to sign
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: a non nuclear deal. They better get smart soon. President
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: DJT with a photoshopped image of him that says, in
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: all caps, no more mister nice guy American flag emoji.
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: He is holding what appears to be a like an
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: ar and he's in a black suit with bombs raining
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: down in the background of like some Middle Eastern country
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: behind him. So he's he's still I mean that one's
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: not for the markets.
• 9:41
  Speaker 5: That one's just for the love of the game.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: And for our viewers who are not day traders. The
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: markets open at nine thirty am Eastern and so literally
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: he posted that at nine to twenty nine. He was
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: doing so he's sitting around like he had to pre
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: write that. Well, you know, he was like he was
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: sitting there with it open.
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: He loves it.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: Wait, wait, waiting to press pop.
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: But he loves that. He loves manipulating markets.
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: The markets were not manipulated by that one.
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: It's a thrill.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're pretty sure that this didn't happen. Now A
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: six is I think a little bit closer to some
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: version of the truth, which is Iran. I don't Iran
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: did not put a quote unquote proposal together that that
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: would say, okay, you do this, we do this, we
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: do this. Our understanding of what Iran did is say
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: they said, if you lift your illegal naval blockade, this
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: is how our management of the Strait will unfold and
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: how ships will get through. Just to be clear that
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: ships will be getting through, but we will still be
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: effectively in control. So it wasn't a if you do this,
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: we'll do that. It's just this is how, this is
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: what the world would look like. And then we will
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: sit down and we will discuss whatever else you want
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: to talk about, talk about the nuclear file, more talk
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: about you know, proxy is whatever you want to talk about,
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: we'll talk about that. But this is what the Strait
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: has to look like first. It's more of it that
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: is more of a just a demand slash assertion like
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: this is where we are in our position, and this
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: is where they have been for many weeks. Now. Trump
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: doesn't like that, and it seems like Trump, according to
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: the reporting, wants to try to weight them out.
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: He The post that he just put up actually on
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: True Social at four am is interesting because he's now
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: referring to it as a non nuclear deal, and that's
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's trying to again brand whatever they might
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: be able to come to. But he says, Iron doesn't
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: know how to sign a non nuclear deal, so he's
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: I think it helps us look at the New York
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: Times Wall Street Journal reporting and say, what he's not
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: willing to do is table the nuclear discussions because he
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, getting the straight reopened already in L because
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: it was open before the war started. And then if
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: you table the nuclear negotiations double L, you can't even
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: brand that in a way that Trump would feel like
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: is victorious, is persuasively victorious to the public.
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: So I think you're right about that, Ryan, Yeah, and.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: So just checked Brent Crude. We can put up what
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: is this A three? But in real time, you know,
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: in the morning, here we're looking at one hundred and
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: fourteen dollars a barrel, which is you know, this is like,
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: so what's that That's an incredibly high price for oil,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: And so what we're looking at here is the product
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: of the real world, in my opinion, starting to overwhelm
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: what the Treasury Department has been able to do. And
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: I've started doing some reporting on this. Hopefully maybe next
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: week we'll have like a fully fleshed out piece. But
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: what's going on? And you've got the like the attempts
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: by you know, Trump and Axios to like prop up
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: the markets constantly with the nine thirty or the three
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: fifty five or the three thirty, three thirty PM news
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: that turns out to be then fake. But what you
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: also have is the Treasury itself Bestent, you know, through Bessent,
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: engaging directly in the markets. And there's there seems to
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: be a variety of different ways that they're doing it,
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: but effectively, think about it like this. If you're trading
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: oil futures contracts and you think that prices are going
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: much higher, right, so you're in or you know, in
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: a normal market, prices are going to move up. But
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: if you have the Treasury coming in through intermediaries selling
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: short positions pushing it down. Then that changes the tenor
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: of the market, that changes the participants in the market,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: and the same with the same with stockbroker are the
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: same with the golf allies getting currency swap deals so
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: that they don't have to sell their stock assets or
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: sell their treasuries. What ends up happening is that the
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: real price, that the price that you're looking at in
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: the futurist market does not reflect what the market actually
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: thinks should be market thinks should be much higher. What
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: that also means is that the treasury in every one
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: of those trades knows that they're on the wrong side
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: of the fundamentals and is losing money on purpose. Well, okay,
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: so this taxpayer money that is being used in the
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: markets knowing you're going to lose money, but for for
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: a geopolitical purpose of keeping the keeping the oil future
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: prices down.
• 14:51
  Speaker 7: Well, for a war that taxpayers are also funding, that
• 14:53
  Speaker 7: they're also funding, and then when the oil tankers show up,
• 14:59
  Speaker 7: they're not paying as much attention to futures contracts prices.
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: First tanker yesterday, New York Times. Let's put a two
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: up on the screen. This just happened yesterday. The first
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: tanker was loaded with LNG since the war began yesterday
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: and it appeared to have crossed the strait.
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: So in this ship, sometime in March it started leaving.
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: Snuck out, tried to make it run a.
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: Lot of good movies. Maybe we'll get out of this
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: or like mister Beast videos, like you know, sneaking your ways. Yes,
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: congratulations to them, but yeah, like the pc of the
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: world's LNG is running through there. This one ship is,
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: you know, carrying the weight of the world's LNG needs
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: on its shoulders. And while Singapore or whoever you know
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: gets to dock this ship will be very pleased. This
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: is not how you run an entire regional economy.
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: Really big OPEC new news yesterday, whether it's symbolic news
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: or not, Let's put a one up on the screen.
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: This is the headline from CNBC. UA to leave OPEK
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: May one. Energy chief says still committed to oil price stability,
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: the UAE will exit OPEC, CNBC reports on May one,
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: and a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: among many of the world's largest oil producers, particularly those
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: in the Middle East. The shock announcement Tuesday comes after
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: the UAE was the target of missile and drone attacks
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: for weeks by fellow OPEC member Iran. Tehran's attacks on
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: shipping the strait of horror moves has also severely constrained
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: the UA's ability to export oil, threatening the foundation of
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: its economy.
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: Now, Ryan, the.
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: Copy of this lead here would be a source of
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: debate because it's described as a major blow to the cartel.
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: The OPEK is what it was saying, the OPEC cartel.
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: Do you agree or disagree?
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: Well, it's not an immedia blow because the UA is
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: I think it's quota it's something like three plus million
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: barrels per day and right now it's doing like a
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: little over a million, so it's not hitting its quota anyway.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: So it's so there's no risk that the UE is
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: going to all of a sudden start, you know, exporting
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: a huge amount of oil because it you know, it
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: has this pipeline. And there was this viral tweet from
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: some Emorati booster yesterday there was like ooh, checkmate Libs, checkmate,
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: I Ron. We've got this pipeline. We're gonna and now
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: that we're out of OPEK, we're going to move an
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: extra two million barrels per day out of it. It's like, bro,
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: that pipeline is already fully operational. Where you going to
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: sneak more oil into it? Like? Are you also leaving
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: the laws of physics as well as opek get out
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: of here? And also they can just bomb that pipeline.
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: If you start restart hostilities, then what are you gonna do?
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: So but so short term no, but long term yes.
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: And I I I think it's a it's a signal
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: that the UAE that we have come to know and
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: love over the last fifteen years, that plays this like
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: this punch above its weight role in the region, producing
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: a famine and a civil war in Yemen, producing a
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: genocide in Sudan, producing playing in kind of an Israeli
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: role of attempting to destabilize the region for in a
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: zero sum game, and in pursuit of kind of commodity
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: roots and control over commodities and trade in the region.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: Like that that UAE we don't actually love, by the way,
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: I think is coming to an end. And this is
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: a this is a kind of flailing death throw of
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: it that And I also think that they are, as
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: they've acknowledged clearly short on cash flow, and they feel
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: like if they can get there, if they can get
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: oil flowing again and oil and gas flowing again to
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: get the straight up form moves open, then they could
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: start pushing above their OPEC limits, which they did already.
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: That's the other funny thing like that. The like knock
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: on the UAE as a member of OPEC is that
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: they don't recognize rules at all, like, oh, yeah, that's
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: our quota. We're going to sell what we want. Just
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: what are you going to do? So in that in
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: that sense, I think it will, it'll matter matter long term.
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that makes sense.
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: We can put this headline here a three crude oil
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: surpassing one hundred dollars a barrel as of yesterday. That's happen.
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: That happened after the UAE said it would leave OPAK.
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: No surprise there can move to a four.
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: Now we're pushing one hundred and fifteen.
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: Right, and this is let's take a look at the pole.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: Yes, fifteen, that's fifteen percent. I can do that math.
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: This is a Reuter's poll that found seventy seven percent
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: of people agree that Donald Trump is to blame for
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: the rise in gas prices.
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: I like the people who disagree on that, who are
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: they blaming Israel? Actually, probably the rest are Israel.
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: I'm blaming Ryan grub as me seventy even Republicans.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: If you look at that next one.
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: Yep, Republicans agree by a margin of eleven points, and
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: Trump obviously needs Republicans to.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: How's that number with independents looking sixty seven?
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: Sixty seven, and I mean that's a massive gap also
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: just between Republicans and independents. Democrats are obviously at ninety,
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: but where you have, I mean, that's a massive, like
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: we're talking roughly fifty point difference between Republicans and independence,
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: which in a midterm cycle makes the work of the
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: president of the party in power rather difficult because you
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: have to persuade people to keep voting for Republicans. Now,
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: I think Trump has kind of given up on caring
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: about them in terms. To be honest, I don't think
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: that would come as a surprise to anybody. It sort
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: of sucks if you're a House Republican and you're trying
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: to get re elected, and normally you would have the
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: president trying to make your job easier. But I don't
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: think Trump is particularly concerned anymore about that.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: And as as we have said over and over again,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: the crimping of the of the kind of oil export
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: markets takes months for it to really ripple through the economy.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: Our Godfriyo Luka, our Africa correspondent drop Site, was telling
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: us the other day that things are just collapsing all
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: over the place there, like just utter despair from the
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: surging fuel prices and fuel shortages, like not just high prices,
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: but no prices because you can't buy it Asia, Australia
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: and we are all linked, so the US and South
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: America takes it takes a little bit longer for us
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: to hit or we're energy independent and it doesn't matter. No,
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: it's a global market and so we export a huge
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: amount of oil and if as the price for that
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: goes up, the price that we're paying goes way up,
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: and that is going to ripple inflation through the entire thing.
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: So this is a number before that happens. And keep
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: that in mind.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: And also as I was saying the beginning, we've been
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: we through the through the Treasury have been artificially inflating
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: the markets and deflating energy markets. And so we can't
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: do that forever. Like we're going to run out of
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: ways to do that, and when and when we lose
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: control of it, like it could be run away in
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: a truly disastrous way.
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: And we're going to talk more about markets and just
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: a bit. Yeah, I think when.
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: You are trying to hold together this well, So what
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: to what extent does Trump care about his coalition at
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: this point?
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: I think he cares about his legacy at this point
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: more than anything else, and he feels like this is
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: a part of his legacy building world peace maker. Truly
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: like trying to understand what's happening in Donald Trump's mind,
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: and that's my best guess, like a great man of history,
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: legacy that he's trying to establish himself as being so
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: for House Republicans senators who are on the ballot in November,
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: and so like Susan Collins, really tough races Maine, Nebraska,
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: if you're Pete Rickett's going up gets Dan Osborne, these
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: are going to be really, really tough races. A poll
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: yesterday showed Tall Rico actually out performing both Republican candidates.
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: We'll see how long that lasts.
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: Some more skeptical of that one, but I think they
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: have real problems in obviously North Carolina, Alaska, Nebraska, Ohio
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: and the like. So I think Donald Trumps just given
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: up on holding House or Senate. And that's normally public
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: opinion is check on executive power, just implicitly. You don't
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: really want to be disastrously on the wrong side of
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: public opinion. But I actually think what we've seen is
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: that Trump a always blames voters when they don't agree
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: with him, and b now that he doesn't have to
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: get re elected and he sees that the midterms are
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: likely not going in his favor either way, He's just
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: kind of yolo.
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: And one reason that this conflict is more difficult to
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: resolve than it should be is that Israel has continued
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: it's war on southern Lebanon even through the ceasefire, which
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: has now expired. We can put up a seven. There
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: was another medic massacre in Montreal zoom in southern Lebanon.
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: At least five I believe medics killed in another double
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: tap strike, which takes the number of medical workers killed
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: in Israel close to or maybe now actually over one hundred.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: They've killed a huge number of journalists deliberately on purpose
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: over the last several weeks, including amal Khalil recently from
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: alock Bar where this you know, infamously they bombed the
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: car in front of her, then chased her and her
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: colleague into a nearby home, and then bombed the home
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: over the span of hours, with the Red Crescent nearby,
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: with political leadership in Lebanon which is very sympathetic to
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: Israel begging them to not kill her, and they killed
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: her anyway. And so this is happening in the backdrop,
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: making it significantly more difficult to get to an agreement here.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: And I think a lot of American people are wondering,
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: like how why are we paying higher gas prices so
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: that Israel can continue to kill medics and journalists in
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: southern Lebanon and destroy towns and villages all across the
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: region to trying to make it uninhabitable, Like how is
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: that something that we want to see our economy crater for.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: Let's transition to talking about the markets and put the
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: first tear sheet up on the screen, because here we
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: see CNBC reporting based on an earnings call yesterday, BP
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: profits more than double beating expectations as Iran war boosts
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: oil prices. Ryan, you pointed this out yesterday. These earning
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: calls can sometimes be fascinating windows into the motivations of
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: the leadership class, the Epstein class.
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: There, I say, yeah, and I think today I think
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: we're getting like Microsoft, Google and a bunch of others,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: because like it's all for the first quarter, which ends
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: March thirty first, since then they get their paperwork together
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: and then they do their their earning earnings calls. So
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: that's why you're going to start to see these rollouts.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: You're going to get a lot of insight into how
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: the first quarter of twenty twenty six went for Corporate America.
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: For BP, pretty incredible.
• 27:01
  Speaker 5: Things are going great.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: As we mentioned, BP had its oil industry nationalized.
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: BP is the historical origin of this entire conflict in
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: the nineteen fifties by most of egg in Iran.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: CIA then overthrow him. I think The brother is one
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: of Emily's favorite books.
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: I think it's a banger recommendation from Ryan fantastic author everything.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: Read Read The Brothers if you haven't yet. Current Roosevelt
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: and a little ragtag gang of CIA agents and Brits
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: overthrow the democratically elected government, make sure BP gets its
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: oil back, puts in a dictator. That dictator is then
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: overthrown in nineteen seventy nine. That dictator's son now lives
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: in Potomac, Virginia and loves to go on CNN and
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: play drum and play drums in a local dad band.
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: Did not know that lore, Yeah, it doesn't.
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: Terrible drummer, from what I'm.
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: Told, really does not change anything.
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Udio jams with him, told me he would be a
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: worse leader of a country than he has a drummer,
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: and he's a terrible drummer.
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: That's a great line, of course.
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: It's also just, of course that you've been in touch
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: with somebody who jams with the Shaw's son.
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: I think that's perfect.
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: Okay, let's move on to Jamie Diamond. Another CNBC headline
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: for you right now. Jamie Diamond yesterday warns of quote
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: some kind of bond crisis that's reassuring ahead as global
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: debt risks build. What he said at an investment conference
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: that was actually held by the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund yesterday.
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: The way it's going now, there will be some kind
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: of bond crisis and then we'll have to deal with it.
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: I'm not that worried we'll be able to deal with it.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: I just think maturity should say you deal with it,
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: as opposed to let it happen. He also said the
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: level of things that are adding to the risk column
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: are high, like geopolitics, it's kind of a catch all oil,
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: government deficits. They may go away, but they may not.
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: And we don't know what confluence of events causes the problem.
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: That last sentence is chilling.
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: We don't know.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: Giant shrug emoji from Jamie Diamond on the Economy right.
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: And just to I wanted to add, Actually, so Rod Dreer,
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: who's obviously on the right, has been working on a
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: book about fleshing out his thesis that we're in a
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: Wymar America period, and he, like just looking at what
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: happened over the weekend, wrote that he believes were one
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: major economic crisis away from another potential like global conflict
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: on a world Ward two level scale. And I actually
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: think that's really interesting. Like I disagree with Rod on
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: some things, but when you hear Jamie Diamond then coming
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: out and being like, well, you know, we don't know
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: what confluence of events causes the problem. We have two
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: hot conflicts right now, actually really three because you still
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: have to add Gaza Ukraine, where the US is in
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: proxy wars.
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: Essentially not great, no powder cake, not great indeed.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: And I've tried every argument in the book to try
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: to persuade people that these billionaires are a mistake and
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: that the concentration of wealth is rotting our society from within.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: But another one that you can add on the pile
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: is that when you have all of these intense concentrations
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: of wealth, that's actually more opportunity than for economic meltdowns
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: and economic crisis because if you have wealth spread.
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: Yeah, of course, kind of absolutely.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: Across, and you have a broad, strong middle class, yep,
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: then that middle class can kind of support itself. Yes,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: if everybody is dependent on like fifteen guys, and those
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: fifteen guys go to Vegas and bet every bet the
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: house on AI or whatever right and come and they lose,
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: then we all we all have lost because we have nothing.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: We were all just riding on them. But there is
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: pressure on that point.
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: I keep you trying to hammer this home.
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: They're twenty percent of I'm sorry, thirty percent of the
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: s and P five hundred is the mag seven right.
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: That's terrifying and makes your point. Ryan and on top
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: of that you have Amazon, Google investing in Anthropic and
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: those types of big AI companies, so you have circular funding.
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: It's a like absolute house of cards. And they set
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: it up that way because they'll profit. Fine, they already
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: have their billions. They'll lose, you know, a couple billion,
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: Maybe they'll lose sixty percent of their money.
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: That's fine.
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: The forty percent still makes them fabulously wealthy at the
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: end of the day. And who suffers the rest of
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: the people who are dependent on the economy.
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and our billionaires mostly live in California, New York,
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: Florida and Texas, two of those states are are at
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: least trying to do something about it. We can put
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: up B three. So there's been an effort. It appears
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: to have been successful. We use the CBS News Terry
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: sheet because it must drive Barry Weiss White with rage
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: that she even had to publish this article CBS News
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: California billionaire tax secures enough signatures to make ballot and
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: so Newsom actually has been pushing against this, or at
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: least he does not seem remotely excited about this at all.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: But unions in California have successfully it appears managed to
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: get enough signatures to put this to voters to say, Okay,
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: the legislatures too bought off by these billionaires. Let's see
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: what regular people think about it. And then back in
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: New York City and New York State and put up, actually,
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: let's just roll before here. This is a New York
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: City mayor Zaramam Dani with alongside New York City Council
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: Speaker Julie Mennon, who is herself a sent millionaire, lives
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: in an eight plus million dollar apartment in New York City,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: and had had and had consistently said that she would
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: fight tooth and nail against any taxes on the super rich.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: She under pressure, she is now siding with Mom Donnie
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: calling for another for a tax on the super rich.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: Let's roll Mom Donny explaining what that one is.
• 33:24
  Speaker 8: The p TET is essentially a loophole that allows high
• 33:28
  Speaker 8: income earners to reduce their federal tax burden. Who benefits
• 33:32
  Speaker 8: millionaires and multimillionaires. More than ninety five percent of p
• 33:36
  Speaker 8: TET credits go to those making more than one million
• 33:38
  Speaker 8: dollars a year. More than eighty percent go to those
• 33:41
  Speaker 8: earning more than five million dollars a year.
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: The p tet, in.
• 33:44
  Speaker 8: Short, is a tax cut for the rich. We are
• 33:47
  Speaker 8: not calling to eliminate the credit. We are rather asking
• 33:50
  Speaker 8: the state for a modest reduction from one hundred percent
• 33:53
  Speaker 8: to seventy five percent. That change alone will generate nearly
• 33:58
  Speaker 8: one billion dollars in additional revenue. Revenue we can invest
• 34:02
  Speaker 8: in the buses that carry in New Yorkers to work,
• 34:04
  Speaker 8: the public schools that educate our children, the public parks
• 34:08
  Speaker 8: and beaches where we spend our summers.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: Okay, that was a lot of fun. But if you
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: guys were watching Mom Donnie that time, or if you
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: were listening, or if you're listening, let's play that again,
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: just for ten or fifteen seconds this time, keep your
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: eye on Julie Mannin in the background. This is the
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: extraordinarily wealthy city council speaker who said that you would
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: not allow any taxes on the super rich being forced
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: to stand next to Mom Donnie while he announces that
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: they've come to an agreement on this, which doesn't mean
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: Hokko will do it, but it puts enormous pressure on
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: her because she and Hogele are allies and she was
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: kind of an obstacle there. Let's roll that again. Just
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: keep your eye on control here. Just keep your own
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: men in here for a second.
• 34:49
  Speaker 8: The p tet is essentially a loophole that allows high
• 34:52
  Speaker 8: income earners to reduce their federal tax burden. Who benefits
• 34:56
  Speaker 8: millionaires and multimillionaires. More Than ninety five for sent of
• 35:00
  Speaker 8: p TECH credits go to those making more than one
• 35:02
  Speaker 8: million dollars a year. More than eighty percent go to
• 35:05
  Speaker 8: those earning more than five million dollars a year.
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: R it's losing it, oh man, she looks pissed.
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: You're not even to get tears like you're it's just rage.
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: She's not even trying to put on a brave phase.
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: She's just staring dagg at it a little whole time,
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: like she was about.
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: To burst in the floor.
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: Look, she just beat him in the in the boiling
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: race yesterday. So there was a city council special election
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: where mom Donnie had endorsed the woman who would come
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: forward and helped kick off the demise of Cuomo. She
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: had worked for Cuomo.
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: I remember we had her own rising.
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: She's great, but she lost, and so Julie manning Kin
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: takes holace in that.
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: I guess, well, uh, the so the the billionaire tax,
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, we don't have to debate this real kind
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: of refers to it as a anti revolutionary tax. Actually,
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: there was like the one time in history where tax
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: is the most agreeable way that you can brand this
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: political policy. Like it's it's not really a tax, it's
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: because it's a one time thing on five percent. And
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: I don't know, I mean the hedge fun thing is
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: really interesting. There's like a lot of creative ways to
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: start like holding people accountable so that they actually are
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: paying what they should be paying.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: This and this was only introduced in like twenty seventeen
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: or eighteen by Cuomo as a response to Trump's first
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: tax cut hit New Yorkers harder than others around the country. Yeah,
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: so he did a little something something to help out
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: his buddies, and then he happened to make it like
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: tilted way towards the super rich.
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, oh he had.
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: So that was a policy error. What was he thinking.
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: He meant to just go for the three hundred four
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars struggling crowd in Brooklyn, but he accidentally,
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: you know, made ninety percent of the benefit go to
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: people making more than a million dollars a year. So
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: this doesn't get rid of it. It just like just tweaks
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: it a little bit.
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And seriously, like if you are looking around at
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: institutional trust and you're mad about you know, Brian Thompson
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: or this apparently centrist White House correspondence dinneral Ledge Gunman,
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: obviously there are anti revolutionary measures that need to be
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: taken to have a more just society and.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: Just a safer Closing Blue Skuy.
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: Closing Blue Skuy is a national security imperative. As we've
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: been saying for years, Closing Blues Guy is the least
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: we could do to make this country safer place. But really,
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: I mean, like I'm not going to agree with everything
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: just from the right, and people on the left aren't
• 37:51
  Speaker 4: going to agree with everything. But I think that's kind
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: of the point of the show is that like the system,
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: it's it's like a five alarm fire. The system is
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: like everyone is telling you the system is broken, the
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: system is corrupt, and we're verging on disaster, and you just,
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, you need a mom Donnie like figure to
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: keep to drag people kicking and screaming to figure out
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: ways to actually actually bring relief to normal people and
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: make the system more fair.
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: Let's see what happens.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: Let's talk about Faisa Bryan or one of the least
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: discussed topics in media, but probably should be one of
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: the most discussed topics in media.
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: Brand I didn't know that you were on the car
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: kill switch.
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: You've gone down that rabbit hole. This is one of
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: my favorite rabbit holes because it sounds so dystopian. It
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: is exactly what it sounds like. Exactly what it sounds like.
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: You think this is crazy. Well, several years ago, this
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: was the Biden administration. I forget which big Biden bill
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: it was in, but it was first passed by the
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: Biden indinistration Democrats into law. Basically that cars manufactured what
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: by twenty twenty seven will have to have a kill
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: switch built into them. Now, the debate is whether that's
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: just for the manufacturers or whether the government will have
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: some sort of type of access to that. More broadly,
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: we could but see one up in the screen. Up
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: on the screen, every car in the US will be
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: required by law to have tech that puts constant surveillance
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: on the driver. By twenty twenty seven, AI in your
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: car will determine if you're sober and fit to drive,
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: automatically turning off the vehicle if it determines you're a
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: danger on the road. So this is something that Mothers
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: against Drug Driving is very very supportive of a difficult
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: obviously a reasonably difficult lobby to overcome, a very very strong,
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: powerful lobby for good reason. But this is always how
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: it starts, of course, Ryan, is that you have a
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: serious safety concern that is put on the table and
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: then it gets abused, predictably gets abused by the government.
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: And you can see very clearly how this would be abused.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: Yes, and there you know, we often like there's often
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: there are often interesting battles going on in Congress over
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: these authorities, and in our in our editorial means we
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: cover this, there's always so much else going on, yep.
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: So but as as the media, we've got to like
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: do a better job in general of like talking about
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: this stuff in real time because then it just creeps
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: it just creeps in and then it's like, wait, how
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: where did this come from? How this happened?
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: And this is now part of negotiations happening, right, So
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: the Hill needs to pass Republicans on the Hill want
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: to pass a government funding package, and some Republicans are
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: holding it up. You know, the Centrists are holding it
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: up for their reasons. The hard link oservers are holding
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: up for their reasons, and one of their reasons is
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: actually this and also also Faiza, which we'll get into
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: in a second. But first let's put C two up
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: on the screen here.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: Come on me.
• 41:03
  Speaker 9: Now, imagine there was an emergency outside the truck, an accident,
• 41:06
  Speaker 9: something terrible on the ranch with a chainsaw, and I
• 41:09
  Speaker 9: jump in this truck. But the truck it won't shift
• 41:11
  Speaker 9: into drive. Why because the cameras and sensors inside this
• 41:15
  Speaker 9: cab won't let it shift because it detects my eyes
• 41:17
  Speaker 9: or big There's a lot of emotion, there's some panic,
• 41:19
  Speaker 9: and it doesn't feel that I'm fit to drive. Now
• 41:22
  Speaker 9: that's not science fiction. That is happening because Ford just
• 41:25
  Speaker 9: filed the patents. Ford actually has a series of patents
• 41:30
  Speaker 9: down at the US Patent and Trade Office that deal
• 41:32
  Speaker 9: with the sensors and cameras inside the cab of their truck.
• 41:36
  Speaker 9: And if the sensors in that truck determine that you're
• 41:38
  Speaker 9: not fit to drive, that truck will not actually shift.
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: From park to drive.
• 41:43
  Speaker 9: Now they already have a system called telematics, and that's
• 41:46
  Speaker 9: where they can actually pull up cameras in real time
• 41:49
  Speaker 9: inside the cab of their fleet vehicles. Now they actually
• 41:52
  Speaker 9: market this to insurance companies, because the truth is this
• 41:57
  Speaker 9: is really about who owns the data and who owns
• 42:00
  Speaker 9: the liability. Now, your name might actually be on the
• 42:04
  Speaker 9: title of this truck, and you may have paid for it,
• 42:09
  Speaker 9: but you don't own.
• 42:09
  Speaker 5: It, Okay, I mean that should be chilling to people.
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: And just a little bit of background on this, and
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: reading from a NewsNation article in January when a bunch
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: of Republicans voted against a Massy led effort to kill
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: the kill switch. They wrote at the time, this is
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: from the Biden era Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: compelled the NHTSA Highway Safety Administration to set a rule
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: requiring new cars to come equipped with the ability to
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: detect drunk driving and prevent it. You can fact check that,
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: Plug that into Google, do it yourself. It is absolutely
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: what was in the legislation. It sounds too crazy to
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: be true, it's not. The bill required quote advanced drunk
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: and impaired Driving Prevention Technology and new cars by twenty
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: twenty four.
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: The technology would.
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: Quote passively and accurately monitored driver performance to detect impairment
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: or passively inaccurately measured driver blood alcohol concentration or both
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: in combination and prevent or limit vehicle operation if impairment
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: is detected. That is gripped right from the bill itself.
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: Ran yes, and so the House today will be taking
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: up the reauthorization of Section seven of two FISA, which
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: is basically the government's spying authorities. By the time the
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: first vote on what they call the rule will probably
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: have happened. By the time this show goes out, it's
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: expected it'll fail. Like there's so much pressure against the
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: leadership here and against this kind of the idea of
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: just passing it that that is the expectation there. But
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: there's a massive pressure campaign from basically the deep state
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: to move this forward because there's no there's no like
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: constituents see out there that's organized among the public that
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: is like, oh, yeah, we desperately need more spying authorities
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: for our government and we need to contur curtail our
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: civil liberties even more. That's not a there was after
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: nine to eleven an actual public constituency for that that yeah,
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: that doesn't exist today. So and maybe you know, because
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: it's expected to fail, maybe they will hold it and
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: there won't be a vote around ten thirty this morning.
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: We'll see, but we'll well, we'll keep on this. The
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: Senate also is there's you know, serious opposition over on
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: the over on the Senate. So this is so and
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: basically what they're what you know, the fight is over
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: a couple of things, but significantly it's over how Anthropic
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: told the Pentagon, Uh, we screw off. We don't want
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: to do we don't want to use the data data
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: broker loophole to like hoover up all of this information
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: on Americans and plug it into our AI and then
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: execute policy based on that. Data broker loophole means okay,
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: the government is not allowed to track you.
• 45:15
  Speaker 5: Well, basically what they were.
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: Data broker's kind of in the government then buys it.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: But buys it right the run. Widen has been on
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: top of those for years. But basically what Anthropic was
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: saying is we reserve the right. We want to reserve
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: the right to say no if we see you doing that,
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: because I don't necessarily know that anthropic is sincerely opposed
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: to that happening, if it makes sense, or if that
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: makes sense so much as they wanted to be able
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: to say if they noticed the government doing it, no,
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: we're out, which is also fair either way.
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: What the what this bill would do is basically, you know,
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: continue to It would basically allow that to be codified
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: into law for not just the military, but for everybody.
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: And there's pushback against that, but it's it's it's really ailed,
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: how it's unfolding. Let's let's put up where's the Jim
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: Himes one, Yes.
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: This is great, this is the political article we can see.
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: Three yeah, so so c three so yeah. Jim Himes
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: has taken a very strange role. He's a he's kind
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: of the he's a Democrat from Connecticut who's you've said, yes,
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: but kind of a Wall Street Democrat who has for
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: some reason taken on the role as kind of chief
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: advocate for spying authorities in the in the House Democratic Caucus.
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: It's it's a very interesting kind of choice to make.
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: But he's been and he's been clashing heavily with Jamie Raskin,
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: who is kind of the lead advocate who is in
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: the conversation around curtailing some of these authorities, and they've
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: been going back and forth with each other, getting it,
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: making it kind of personal. The lever had a good
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: scoop yesterday put up C five and I encourage people
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: to just go read this, this entire piece. But he's
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: been telling people but two different things. One like, publicly,
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: he's been saying that he's that he wants a lot
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: of reforms and he understands people's concerns. Privately, he's been
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: urging Democrats to just you know, vote with.
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: Trump, mounting a full fledged campaign, whisper campaign in the.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: Background, yeah, and getting out of there now. One of
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: the dynamics here is that the CBC, the Congressional Black Caucus,
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: had been firmly aligned with what they call clean reauthorization,
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: just kind of moving it forward, giving Trump the blanket
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: authorities that he's asking for. Julian Andreoni over drop Site
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: spoke to a bunch of different CBC members and under
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: pressure from constituents, they actually seem to be now backing
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: off and are no longer like they seem to have shifted.
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: They're saying no, no, we actually we demand some reforms here.
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: Let's roll a little bit of C four.
• 48:09
  Speaker 10: I just want to ask you where you stand on
• 48:10
  Speaker 10: FISA and the clean reauthorization, especially given that the back
• 48:13
  Speaker 10: door search loophole.
• 48:14
  Speaker 11: I'm concerns about the back door search loophole reauthorization.
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: See that should be before Yes, I will, I will,
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: I will call you.
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: You said there should be.
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: I still have some concerns.
• 48:26
  Speaker 10: The back door search loophole was used to spy on
• 48:28
  Speaker 10: Black Lives Matter protesters in twenty twenty.
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: I want some reforms, there's no doubt about it. But
• 48:34
  Speaker 5: I haven't had a chance.
• 48:35
  Speaker 6: There's a lot of things that they're working on now,
• 48:37
  Speaker 6: some reserve and judgments and let's see the final product.
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: But reforms are essential.
• 48:40
  Speaker 10: Any specific you know, with the data broker loophole, you've
• 48:43
  Speaker 10: got the back door search loophole that was about today.
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: The back door search loophole was.
• 48:46
  Speaker 10: Used to spy on Black Lives Matter protesters.
• 48:48
  Speaker 6: And that's a great issue for me, a real issue.
• 48:51
  Speaker 6: So we're going to make sure that you know, in
• 48:53
  Speaker 6: our attempt to do what something is right, we have
• 48:56
  Speaker 6: to make sure that we're protecting civil liberties. Now, we're
• 48:58
  Speaker 6: not putting ourselves in a position.
• 49:00
  Speaker 10: As Congressman Meeks reached out to you at all to
• 49:02
  Speaker 10: try because he's very outwardly spoken about what I want
• 49:04
  Speaker 10: to he's offering briefing some member of Congress.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: Has he offered one?
• 49:10
  Speaker 10: Okay, where do you stand on the FAISSA vote tomorrow?
• 49:14
  Speaker 10: The clean reauthorization? Do you want to see some reforms
• 49:16
  Speaker 10: with regard to the back door search loophole that was
• 49:18
  Speaker 10: used to spy on Black Lives Matter protest.
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: I'm looking very seriously.
• 49:21
  Speaker 11: I would like to see some reforms, but I don't
• 49:23
  Speaker 11: I don't think we can let FISA laps all together,
• 49:27
  Speaker 11: and so I'm hopeful we're able to.
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: In an ideal world we pass it with the.
• 49:37
  Speaker 11: With reforms, but I think I don't know that I'm
• 49:41
  Speaker 11: comfortable letting it lapse all again.
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: Is there a rush to vote for it now?
• 49:45
  Speaker 10: Because I know there's concerns about Section seven oh two,
• 49:47
  Speaker 10: but the New York Times reported on Thursday that actually
• 49:49
  Speaker 10: that was renewed individually in March, all the way through
• 49:52
  Speaker 10: March twenty twenty seven.
• 49:53
  Speaker 11: I'm not in a rush as long as it's not expiring.
• 49:55
  Speaker 11: But I'm not in the majority.
• 49:57
  Speaker 10: Okay, And specifically with regard to Congressman Meets, he's very vocal.
• 50:00
  Speaker 10: He supports a clean reauthorization without the reforms, And there's
• 50:04
  Speaker 10: been some reports. In fact, I just spoke with members
• 50:06
  Speaker 10: of the CBC who confirmed it, said that he's been
• 50:09
  Speaker 10: whipping up some votes. Have you spoken with him or
• 50:11
  Speaker 10: spoken with Congssman Hines.
• 50:13
  Speaker 11: I have not spoken directly with either of them.
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 50:20
  Speaker 11: I've been a little distracted with three disheart thing. So
• 50:23
  Speaker 11: if they have, my staff probably knows, and I don't
• 50:26
  Speaker 11: know if it's on my calendar.
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: You haven't done any I have not this year. I
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: went obviously the last time.
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: What's good about that from a kind of democratic small
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: dey perspective is that the CBC had basically been on board,
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: but amid a lot of public pressure, like no, actually,
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: we do need some reforms here. It's the kind of
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: thing that if there's sunlight on it, you get a
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: slightly different outcome then if there's nobody watching and you're
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: getting pressured by basically the deep state and Greg, you're like, okay, well, yep.
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: Also imagine you're a member of Congress. Do you want
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: the deep state angry with you? Probably not.
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: No.
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: And this is where I have never done anything wrong.
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: Ever, Glenn, there's an episode of System Update. Well, first
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: of all, there's an episode of System Update where pre
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: Mike Johnson, a speaker, Mike Johnson goes on Glenn's show
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: and talks about how we got to get rid of
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: section we have to reform section seven to two. I
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: don't know if he said to get rid of it
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: all together. I think he said get rid of it
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: all together.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: But that was a really great It was a really.
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: Popular position even among sort of main quote unquote mainstream Republicans.
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: He wasn't free to Freedom Caucus or anything like Mike
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: Johnson earlier in the Trump era, because obviously FAIZA had
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: been abused to obtain warrants on people like Carter Page,
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: and with pretty clear evidence, someone was actually prosecuted for
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: lying on a FISA warrant application, so that obvious happened.
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: It's a good litmus test, like imagine the worst your
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: worst president. If you're Democrats, probably Trump. If you're a Republican,
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: maybe it's Obama. I have no idea, and then think
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: about whether you want them to have in their administration
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: to have FISA powers. And then if your answer is no,
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: then probably nobody should have it. But that was so
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: so Mike Johnson literally walks into a skiff. It's kind
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: of a joke on the right, Like he walks into
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: a skiff when the reauthorization was up what two years
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: ago for a vote and comes out and is like, oh,
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: my gosh, we desperately need section seven oh two for
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: national security purposes, like we cannot afford to reform seven
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: oh two. And so it's the most predictable Washington cycle ever, like, oh,
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: for partisan reasons, this was used.
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: Against Donald Trump. We gotta kill it, We got to
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: end at.
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: Trump himself was really he was posting like kill FISA
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: in all caps.
• 52:49
  Speaker 5: Several years ago.
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: FISA itself came out of the Church Committee hearings, and
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: the reforms that came after the Church Committee was supposed
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: to be a barricade
• 52:59
  Speaker 5: And it let me, really hasn't been