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CFP Semifinal Preview | Quarterfinal Recap and Semifinal Picks Against the Spread · The Extra Point

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What's up y'all, you're listening to the extra point
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college football podcast. I'm your host Jacob Carnes joint
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as always by my Co host Daniel hammock Daniel.
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We have four teams remaining for the College Football Playoff
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playing for a college football national championship.
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Teams of the bye week fall to one and seven and the 12 team
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playoff era Indiana, which seems to be breaking every norm and
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every trend the last two seasons being the only by team that won,
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breaking another trend. It's crazy.
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Kind of body batting in Indiana, Alabama there in the Rose Bowl.
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We're going to recap the quarterfinal games, make some
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picks against the spread on our semi final games.
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Our semi final matchups are Oregon and Indiana and the Peach
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Bowl. We've got Miami and Ole Miss and
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the Fiesta ball. You and I were talking to me for
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a lot of reasons, but they should just switch those bowl
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games, man. Location makes a lot more sense.
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They switch them. The Peach bowls, traditionally
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an ACC versus SCC match up. That makes more sense.
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But it is what it is. It's a neutral site.
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Daniel, let's let's talk about it, man.
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Let's break down these these quarterfinal games.
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Let's begin with we had the the standalone New Year's Eve Miami
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beats Ohio State. Daniel, that was a really
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impressive win for Miami. You know, you we both took Ohio
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State. We texted before the game.
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You know, I'm not trying to be like, ah, you know, recorded on
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here instead of one thing and but thought differently.
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We were texting the group chat and I'm like, I just, I had two
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funny feelings. One of them was very wrong.
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One of them was right. And I'm like Miami, I just and
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what if they just come out here and bully, you know, I'm just
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like their, their physical. They've shown their ceiling.
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They've got ridiculous athletes. You know, like, they come out
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here, they kind of bully Ohio State after Ohio State kind of
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got bullied by Indiana. So they end Ohio State season 1
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of the four teams I thought could win it all, but Miami
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being one of those as well. Really, really impressed with
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the way Miami looked, especially on defense in the game against
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Ohio State. Yeah, I think, you know, coming
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into the playoff, I think you and I were both on Miami in the
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sense that, Oh, yeah, they could go on a little bit of a run.
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This was possible, I guess, in my mind.
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But I really just felt, OK, they're going to beat Texas A&M
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and then they're going to play a good game against Ohio State.
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They're seeing what they did to Texas A&M defensively.
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I thought they're going to kind of keep Ohio State in a box, but
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Ohio State's too good. They're eventually going to
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breakthrough. I mean, you and I both picked
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them to lay the points, you know, 9 1/2 points.
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So it was supposed to be a, you know, a game where it was not
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only just a win, but a comfortable win by more than a
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more than two possessions or more than a possession, I should
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say. But as it started unfolding, it
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was kind of like my exactly as you, you know, prescribed it
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with Miami just was too good on the really defensive line.
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Offensively, they were good enough to do what they needed to
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do. They didn't seem like they
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overwhelmed. You know, Ohio State, obviously
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the score is 2414. It wasn't a blow out.
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It was just 10 points the other way.
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But Ohio State you could see kind of Julian say in showing up
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as more of, you know, I don't want to just call him a
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freshman. He's a red shirt freshman.
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So, you know, it is what it is. It's the end of his second
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season in college. But he just looked like he was a
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little shell shocked. He'd been hit a couple times.
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There's a couple plays. I mean, I remember a play where
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he could have ran the ball and got like 10 yards and got a
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first down. But he, like, goes through his
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progressions and throws the ball out of bounds.
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And it was, you know, wide open in front of him.
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But I think he had just been so rattled.
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And that was something that people don't really talk about.
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They think about, you know, can this player beat this player?
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Can this play it, You know, the actual psychology of the game.
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Miami beat up Ohio State, and they're not used to getting beat
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up even in the game against Indiana.
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I think there's a certain mentality of, well, we're Ohio
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State and you're Indiana. Like, yeah, we've kept it close
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with you. You beat us by three, whatever,
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You know, we're still Ohio State.
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This was kind of a almost a cultural shift, and that
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happened in a couple of these games.
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I kind of think that this is something, whether it be related
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to the playoffs in general or format or if this is truly like,
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you know, NIL that has spread to everybody and all it, you know,
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it's a any given Saturday kind of league now.
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This one kind of felt like a unseating of, you know, last
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year's champion and Miami is something special.
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I mean, they're more than I thought they were.
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Yeah. So I'll say one more thing about
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this game, the postgame win expectancy, something we talked
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about staff from Bill Connolly. What do you think Miami over
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Ohio State that postgame 1 expectancy was?
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It was. Probably pretty high, I would
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say 80%. 30% lost the success rate battle.
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Yeah, they lost the success rate battle.
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Like this is where you know, so postgame what expectancy is
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basically we take all the stats on a down to down basis and put
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it into a computer. What what results do you get in
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so that this kind of calculates if you put in the same exact
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stats, then like what, what result do you get?
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Basically they're saying Miami beats Ohio State 30% of the time
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based on like a down to down basis how the game played out
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and success rate's a big part of that.
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The Ohio State had a 3% higher success rate, not a not a ton
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higher, but you also count for turnovers.
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Of course, that was the that was the only, the only post game
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what expectancy of a winner that was below 50% for the
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quarterfinals. But I mean, again, but if you
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watch the game, you wouldn't feel that way at all.
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I, I think the, the, the result you got was what you expected
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just watching the players play. Now Ohio State had some dudes on
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defense as well that I mean, did you had I think across all the
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quarterfinals, you had some really hard hits like, and I
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just like watching football at the highest level.
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Of course you, you get that watch on the Sundays.
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You get that in the NFL. But that's one thing I've
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enjoyed the playoff is dude, especially this past run you got
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you've got people hitting people and you've got athletes playing
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at their highest level. Both defenses I thought played
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unbelievable, but Miami had a more consistent run game than
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Ohio State did and I think that allowed them to win this game
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and and a more consistent pass rush.
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They got home more than Ohio State did.
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And they move on to the semi finals.
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First double digit seed to win a game in the 12 team era.
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That's only the last two years, but still.
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And now they move on to the semis and they will play in the
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Fiesta Bowl. Ole Miss.
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Let's jump to the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss after losing in the
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regular season to Georgia, beats Georgia in the rematch by three.
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Daniel, Georgia had to do one thing to go to overtime.
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Just don't give up a long pass play.
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They give up a long pass play. Ole misses kicker was automatic
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in the Sugar Bowl. Trinidad Chambliss was, I mean,
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he was a robot man here. The driver, they took the lead.
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It was 24 to 19. Georgia, the driver, they took
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the lead. He had three plays that you're
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like, that was his play of the season.
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And they happened on the same drive, but just back-to-back to
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back. It seemed like like on 3rd down
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season on the line. There's no way he gets out of
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this. And I've watched a few times,
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Daniel, like a quarterback just get into the zone where it's
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like, oh man, they just, they just can't miss.
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I was at the 2019 SEC Championship and that's, I mean,
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Joe Burrow had a few games like that.
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But you know, just watching the quarterback live and you're
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like, do you just, you just, it leaves his hand.
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You're like, that's going to be a catch.
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And it seemed like that watching Trinidad Chambliss of that's
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just going to hit someone in the hands for a first time.
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Every single time he dropped back, it seemed that way, which
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they had him drop back almost 50 times.
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So they they needed it from him on a down to down basis.
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Ole Miss like their success rate against Georgia that 56 to 37
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down to down. They were much better than
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Georgia. And honestly again, that was a
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98% post game win expectancy, which is considering how the
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game played out. But the the the Disney
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Cinderella story continues for Ole Miss and I thought it would
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run out in this one. But Daniel, the four teams I
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thought can win the national championship.
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George is the only one to lose in the quarterfinals to a team
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that I did not think can win at all.
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And Ole Miss is now two wins away from a national
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championship. Really, really impressive win.
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It was like a home game for them and the Sugar Bowl there.
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I mean, their fans have to be on cloud 9, Daniel, because they to
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go from your coach leaving you to you hire the DC who's like
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one of us and it's like, yeah, you beat Tulane.
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You beat him pretty bad in the regular season too.
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That was expected to go beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and to
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now be just two wins away, Avenger only loss.
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I mean, that's got to be a blast for those fans.
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Really impressive win. It's a special season, But, you
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know, Ole Miss has they've been building to this for a while
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under Lane Kiffin. And during this season, it was
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one that, you know, I think that this is a, you know, we've seen
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Ole Miss beat Georgia. They did it last year and it was
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kind of, you know, one of those. But, you know, it was a very big
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deal last year. But last year they, you know,
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lost other games that prevented them from going to the SEC
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championship or going to the playoff.
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And so you kind of felt like there was a, you know, something
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holding them back. This year, of course, they lose
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to Georgia. And so there's I guess that
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thought kind of creeps back in of, Oh, yeah, well, they're
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they're going to hit their head on a ceiling, which is kind of
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manifested in their coach leaving for LSU.
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And this whole, like, conundrum of like, oh, well, if I'm going
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to win a national championship, I'm going to have to go to a
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place that can do it. And it's just crazy because
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he's, like you said, two wins away from winning national
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championship this game. There were moments that unfolded
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in this game where it looked like, OK, this is going to be
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toe to toe. Then Georgia got that lead at
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halftime and they were going to get the ball after half.
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And it was kind of like, all right, George has got a nine
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point lead. You know, Pete Golding chased
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some points. You know, he tried to go for two
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and didn't get it. And then, you know, they kind of
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had that mess up right in the end of the first half, that fire
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drill that kind of went wrong with it.
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That is on the receiver. It wasn't on him, but where
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they're kind of already in field goal range, but then they they
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threw the ball and get tackled inbounds.
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I'm mentioning that for the sheer fact of, you know, if it
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would have gone the other way, you'd look back to those points
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and say, oh, you know, this is inexperience of a head coach not
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being able to do. But the the way that they kept
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coming. And, you know, he was
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unflappable in his half time interview and he came out and he
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just, you know, we just got to do this, this and this, you
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know, we can play with these guys.
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We're right here with them. It seemed like the broadcast
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didn't believe him. And then it comes out and it's
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exactly what they did. Their defence got stops that
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they needed to. Georgia May have been a little
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more conservative than they needed to at certain points,
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thinking they could sit on a lead, especially with someone
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like Trinidad Chambliss, who is kind of went to a different
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level. And I think that there was also
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a thought. I know that I thought this
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during the game. I don't know if you did, but
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when Q1 Laci had that fumble that was in return for a
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touchdown, it kind of felt like, not that it was insurmountable,
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but I almost felt like they weren't going to be able to
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depend on Lacey the rest of the game.
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And if that was the case, I felt like it was insurmountable.
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But the credit to Lacey, he came back, he ends up two touchdowns
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in the second-half, ends up playing a very good second-half,
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almost 100 yards, kind of righting his wrong within the
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same game, but also from earlier in the year.
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But yeah, credit, credit to Ole Miss the way that they were able
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to to finish down stretch, be Golding for being able to
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overcome some maybe early blunders as a a new head coach.
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And yeah, currently the only coach in the SEC.
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Oh, no, no, no, no. I was going to say the only one
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with a winning record, Caitlin Boor still has a winning record
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against Kirby Smart, but he's off to a great story.
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He's undefeated against Kirby Smart.
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How about that? So good job for them.
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And yeah, this one's going to be fun to watch.
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I agree. It should be the Peach Bowl.
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Like, why? Why are we making this Miami and
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Ole Miss going to be the Fiesta Bowl like the Peach Bowl is ACC
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versus SEC? I, I was looking at one thing,
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rushing yards, 124 to 111, Georgia out rushing Ole Miss.
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But again, this was something that I was like, if this repeats
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itself, that's that's night night.
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And that's Georgia out rush from 220 to 80 in the first matchup.
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So to close that gap and to stop Georgia from running the ball, I
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mean, honestly, just stop them on offense period.
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I mean that they, they shut Georgia's offense down the
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second-half. Well, well deserving win for Ole
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Miss. All right, that's the Fiesta
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Bowl. The Peach Bowl will be Oregon
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Ducks. They were slight favorites
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against Texas Tech. This is 1 you and I nailed and
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got right. My biggest thing going into this
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game, Daniel, was what is the best defense that Texas Tech has
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faced because they're going to go up against what I think is
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one of the top three defense in the country.
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The answer is Utah. They were a top 20 defense,
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ranked exactly 20th. So this offense that has been
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putting up points and you know, they're beating everybody by 20.
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Texas Tech's defense I thought was legit period.
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But you know, they have the bodies and even though it's
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against the Big 12, but then, you know, I think this is a, a,
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what's the word here? This is a downside of conference
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realignment, A consequence. I was like, it's not conflict
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consequence. This is a consequence of
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conference realignment in that to the people who said like,
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yeah, but this happens every year, Daniel.
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You know, we grew up in the South.
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SEC fans and to be clear, team people that are fans of teams in
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the SEC. We'll say, yeah, but who's who's
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Ohio State played? And I'm like, OK, come on.
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They play a Big 10 schedule like they play Texas week one.
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We got to stop playing this. Who have they played game?
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It's 2025. We have plenty of metrics to see
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how they play, not just who they play, you know, So I feel like
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I'm the Big 10 or Big 12 or ACC defender in saying, hey, we
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can't play this. Who have you played game with
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Texas Tech? I was playing it though, because
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I'm like, yeah, look at this margin of victory.
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But man, nobody in the Big 12 has the bodies Texas Tech has.
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They should be body bagging people, right?
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And they did. But the but the defense was
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legit off season. The offense was what I
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questioned because I'm like, what happens when you go up
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against the defensive line that outweighs your offensive line?
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Like what happens when you go up against NFL corners who can lock
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down your receivers? And what happens when Baron
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Morton is all of a sudden trying to recover?
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It is with a complex defensive system.
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That's all she wrote. Oregon dominates Texas Tech.
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They cannot move the ball at all against Oregon.
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So a spread that I felt very confident going in, the spread
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confused me, felt very justified in one of the two, one of the
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two I got right. So, you know, we'll take a
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victory lap there. Considering the terrible season
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I had against the spread this year, Oregon is how I thought
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they were. They're picking at the right
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time. They're playing for a semi final
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now. They got to go face a rematch
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against Indiana. But really impressive when it
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gets Texas Tech and they're firing in all cylinders it looks
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like right now. Yeah.
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I mean, since we're mentioning records, you know, of course
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we'd come off the high of going three and one in the first week
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of the playoff. And I flip it around with A1 in
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three-week this week. This was my only victory.
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So I will also take victory lap year.
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But it comes down to defense, like you said.
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I mean, Texas Tech did not get, I mean, they got blown out in
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the sense that, yeah, I was, you know, 3 scores, but 23 to
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nothing. Not scoring is the big issue
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here. You know, 66 nothing at half
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time. Texas Tech's right there.
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But of course, the two second-half touchdowns for
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Oregon were the difference. Dante Moore did just enough and
16:07
did not hurt his team. There was, you know, Texas Tech
16:10
had two fumbles. That's something that's just
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going to come back to bite you every time.
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It's just how the ball ball bounces when that happens.
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But as I was watching this game, some friends were saying how
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this is a boring game and like, well, yeah.
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But when you put in the fact that, like, every moment
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matters, you know, you're trading possessions, like, every
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time they punt, you know, you're getting your field position and
16:36
everything like that. And it just felt like Oregon was
16:39
comfortable playing that kind of game if they needed to.
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I think Oregon can ramp up. And I think This is why we
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picked Oregon. I have to go back to look at my
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show notes for that. But they can win multiple ways.
16:49
They can, you know, if they got to go in a scoring match,
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they've got really elite talent on the perimeter and a really
16:56
good quarterback. And I think that if they had to
16:58
go blow for blow and, and everything, they could do that.
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I think that they were right in this type of game when they saw
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that they could kind of sit on it and, you know, play defense
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and, you know, their offense doesn't have to make, you know,
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crazy the plays now they're comfortable with their I mean
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all their backs. They averaged less than two
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yards of rush. So this wasn't a very great
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offensive performance by Oregon in and of itself.
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But I came away impressed with the Oregon defense.
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And I think that, you know, we're going to go to this next
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one with Indiana, you know, talking about that this will be
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maybe the best defense that Indiana has played all year and
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they've played them before. So we're going to have we're
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going to have that to kind of base things off of and they had
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to play them at their house. So that's going to be a good, a
17:49
good look. But yeah, Oregon, definitely a
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team that we identified at the beginning of the year that I
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think some people gave up on, including us myself
17:59
specifically. And they've kind of just hung
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out and they're they're right where they've expected to be all
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year. So that's the playoff semi
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final. They will face the Indiana
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Hoosiers who once again, Daniel, they just go out and beat a good
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team and beat them way worse than they beat the other good
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teams. I did this year, only team with
18:18
the BI in the last two years to win their opening game.
18:21
Love cursing daddy. I got, I don't know if it was
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pregame or the maybe the press conference before the Rose Bowl.
18:27
He got asked about like the the Alabama mystique and he said
18:30
basically that was before their players really playing college
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ball when Alabama had that mystique and they only know what
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they've seen on tape. And I was like, that's a wrap.
18:39
That is, this game's over. Yeah.
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Yeah. They they they body bag Alabama.
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That was by far the biggest blow out of the quarterfinals.
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Yeah, they should. They shut down everything.
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They did an offense. The Alabama did an offense.
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And Indiana's offense showed up to work.
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Mendoza looked like the highest in trophy winner.
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The receivers are getting open great routes.
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Their offensive line held up against Alabama's defensive
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line. Again, Daniel, I'm just.
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I know the roster 65% transfers, but it's still hard for me to
19:07
comprehend how good Indiana is. They've been the best team all
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season. I am a fan of the team that's
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proven they've been the best all season, winning it all.
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So you might say I'm rooting for Indiana.
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It's one at all this year. They've been the best team all
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season and they proved it once again in the Rose Bowl.
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Very deserving win. Really fun for their fan base.
19:26
They're just they're just a really good football team.
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I don't know what else there's to say Daniel, that they they
19:29
have no weakness. They do everything at a high
19:32
level. I was texting our friend David
19:34
Cobb and saying like, you know, day of I was like, man, is Bama
19:39
going to come out here and show a little Bama, you know, they
19:42
this is a top 2 roster in the country.
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Like are they going to show that they're Alabama in this game?
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And I'm like, man, but just watching Alabama this year, they
19:50
have to walk a tightrope to win. Like they have to do they have
19:54
one way to win a football game and they did it a lot this year.
19:58
But I'm like Indiana, just it, it's hard for me to comprehend
20:01
the roster and knowing that they have like no weakness and they
20:04
just do everything at a very high level.
20:05
Signetti's an assassin. There's a very memeable video
20:08
going around him on on Twitter right now.
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It's it's great of like, I think it was after they scored a
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touchdown or had a big play or something.
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He's just looking all serious and just kind of like looking at
20:18
the field analyzing. And anyway, they're they're fun
20:20
to root for. This isn't just a good story
20:24
anymore, Daniel. This is just A and this is the
20:26
best football team in the country and Oregon's going to
20:28
have their hands full. They've already lost this team
20:29
once, and Alabama found out just how good Indiana was in the Rose
20:32
Bowl. Yeah, this was one that was kind
20:34
of like a reckoning almost, you know, the the Big 10 and the
20:41
SEC, obviously these two, this is the only one that was a Big
20:45
10 versus SEC match up. So you know, you you're putting
20:48
out Indiana and you've got traditional power Alabama.
20:51
And you and I are guys who've been molded by watching Nick
20:55
Saban teams do this year in and year out and when and do it, you
20:59
know, when at the highest level. And they've had George's number
21:04
for so many years. And so even when Georgia had
21:06
their ascent, Alabama would still be able to beat them.
21:09
And so I think that there's a part of our mind that I, I know
21:13
that I'm blind to it. You picked you picked Indiana,
21:17
right? Yeah, I picked him.
21:18
You picked, I picked Alabama, so I've got I'm going to wear this
21:23
one, but I picked Alabama with the sheer fact I I had them
21:26
winning out, right, Not just, you know, it was a 6 1/2 point
21:29
spread. I just had believed, you know,
21:32
that there was a certain level that there would be an Alabama
21:35
Mystique, there would be this because I've seen it play out so
21:38
much. And this almost was a liberating
21:40
loss for me in the pics because I'm almost free to just see the
21:45
board as it is. Yeah.
21:49
You know, Indiana truthfully is so far has been the best team
21:54
that we've seen. I mean, spoiler alert, they're
21:56
the only ones that are still undefeated.
21:57
But it was it wasn't just a win. It wasn't just something where
22:01
you could say how they got that last second field goal.
22:03
What a great story. Like you're just talking about
22:06
Mendoza's 14 of 16, three touchdowns.
22:09
They had his little brother in in the fourth quarter.
22:13
You know, they were they were doing everything they wanted to
22:15
and they were physical with Alabama.
22:18
That first drive. Alabama, you know, came in in
22:21
sacked Mendoza. And I remember thinking, OK, you
22:24
know, Indiana hasn't seen a defense like this.
22:27
Perhaps this was not my SEC bias.
22:32
And then it was almost like the film has been lifted from my
22:34
eyes. I was able to see this.
22:36
I mean, 38 to 3 is a shellacking Signetti is that dude Jacob?
22:43
The four in the semi final. And we can go ahead and and jump
22:48
into these in just a moment. But right, Ole Miss, their last
22:52
national championship 1962 Miami last one 2001 Oregon has never
23:00
won one. Indiana has never won 1A
23:03
football national championship. So I mean, if I remove any hurt
23:08
that I had as a Georgia fan losing the Ole Miss and not
23:11
having an opportunity to win this, this is pretty
23:15
interesting, man. This is some a former blue blood
23:18
and then, you know, a three other teams that just have
23:23
never, never done it, you know, or almost did in 1962.
23:27
I'm not hating on their 1962 championship, but I had to
23:29
Google it to see that it was real.
23:31
This is going to be kind of a reckoning in the sense that last
23:35
year, yeah, there was parody, but the parody was dude, Ohio
23:39
State ended up being what were they?
23:41
The 10 seed, the nine seed and then the.
23:44
Eight seed. 18 And then they made they ran the table and did
23:47
their thing. That is different.
23:49
That was Ohio State. They were blue blood.
23:52
I mentioned to you prior to us getting on the call that it's a,
23:57
you know, whatever it is from The Dark Knight with that the
24:01
Joker says about order and that when things start to go with
24:05
chaos, there's, you know, everybody starts to freak out.
24:09
I I don't know the exact line, so I'm paraphrasing, of course,
24:12
but the order in college football is the Alabama's, the
24:16
Georgia's, Ohio States. And for all of those, those
24:20
three teams specifically, the fact that those three teams were
24:24
the ones to lose, sorry, Texas Tech, but those three teams
24:27
specifically lost in this round was the most rattling thing I
24:32
think you could have seen. And so it one of those things
24:35
happening, Ohio State losing is this huge story.
24:38
But they were just like, oh, thank goodness Indiana blew out
24:43
Alabama. Now those SEC people will shut
24:45
up. Well, you know, all the SEC
24:47
people were like, thank goodness Ohio State law.
24:49
So the Big 10 people will shut up.
24:50
And Indiana's like, we're just the best, you know, And then
24:53
Georgia loses that night. So, you know, it just was it was
24:57
one of these things where it's a a big shift.
25:01
I don't know if things will change again.
25:04
There's been so much change in college football, you know, as
25:07
far as you know, where the power lies and what the playoff and
25:10
NIL and all this kind of stuff. I'm interested to see how things
25:13
continue, but I know that this is a year that's different from
25:16
anything I've ever seen. It is different.
25:18
Let's I mean, let's start with the semi finals.
25:20
So our four teams left. I saw I saw a screenshot and I
25:23
mean we didn't do it either. So I'm throwing our us in here
25:25
too. You know, you get 12 teams to
25:26
pick for your playoff. The the ESPN staff, none of them
25:29
got any of the final four teams in their twelve.
25:32
You and I, did you have Miami in?
25:33
I did not. I did not.
25:35
Only when I got right was Oregon, because I even had
25:38
Indiana losing Alabama. So Oregon's I got one out of
25:41
four. I'm saying preseason.
25:42
We I think I had Oregon in the final four.
25:45
Even the playoff see here I'm looking while I'm going to pull
25:48
this up and see because I do have my preseason one
25:52
regardless, the the the fact that these the four teams we
25:55
have left is pretty incredible. OK, I had Clemson ever, Miami, I
26:01
think Oregon's only one I had of these.
26:03
I know I didn't have Indiana and I know I didn't have Ole Miss.
26:06
OK, let's start with first game Ifiesta Bowl, Miami and Ole
26:12
Miss. Ole Miss will be the home team,
26:14
Daniel, as far as uniforms go. My hope and prayer is that Ole
26:21
Miss has told their teams to wear red.
26:24
They said to wear powder to the Sugar Bowl.
26:26
Was hoping that meant we'd get a powder blue helmet.
26:29
I hate the white practice pants, but Daniel, they have an
26:32
opportunity to correct their mistake.
26:34
They told their teens to wear red.
26:37
I think their best home uniform, one of two, is the red jersey,
26:40
powder helmet, Gray pants. Miami.
26:44
Just wear white or green pants somewhere rolling.
26:46
This could be an incredible uniform matchup in the Fiesta
26:48
Bowl. Let's hope the field holds up.
26:51
This field famously said bad footing.
26:54
Don't want any injuries for either team, especially heading
26:56
into the natty for whoever wins. Daniel Miami is a 3 1/2 point
27:01
favorite as the ten seed man. Who do you have in the Fiesta
27:06
Bowl to move on and play for a national championship?
27:09
I mean, I feel like I've gone back and forth on both of these
27:13
games, but this one specifically, I think that
27:17
obviously that defensive line Ruben Bane and Co have just been
27:22
unbelievable for Miami and they've gotten hot here
27:25
recently. Both of these teams are OK, So
27:28
Miami is pre season what had expectations to do something,
27:32
But I don't think that there was ever a what you could say this
27:36
for anybody, I guess left except maybe Oregon may maybe not.
27:40
There was part of me that there was.
27:43
You're going to have to see it to believe it.
27:45
You're not going to have a realization of where they're
27:47
going to be. Ole Miss, I guess is the same
27:49
for what I said earlier about, you know how, you know, nobody
27:53
believed, especially after they lost to Georgia during the
27:55
regular season. It was like, OK, there's a limit
27:57
to this. Well, now both of these teams I
28:00
think are in new territory where they there's a new level of
28:05
belief. I guess I think the better team
28:09
as a whole defense and all that is probably Miami.
28:14
I just don't think I can pick against what I saw Trinidad
28:17
Chambliss do I think he's on a heater.
28:20
I after watching you, you mentioned the 2019 SEC
28:24
Championship. He was playing like Joe Burrow
28:27
in that game where you had first round talent at first round
28:30
talent chasing him down and Joe Burrow was.
28:35
Better. Not flustered at all exactly, he
28:37
looked better. He just moves it moved around.
28:40
He did a couple similar moves as far as is getting, providing
28:44
more time for his receivers. And if you're going to do that,
28:47
it doesn't matter how good your secondary is.
28:50
That defensive line that I think Miami has an advantage over
28:53
anybody they play. I'm not going to say is going to
28:57
be a non factor, but I'm just saying this may be a neutralizer
29:00
for it. And I just see Trinidad
29:03
Chambliss continuing. I I see him winning this game
29:07
for Ole Miss. It's a 3 point spread.
29:11
So I get 3 points. I just can't, can't bet against.
29:13
And I don't think Miami has that in them on the offensive side.
29:16
If this does get into a scoring match, I don't think that they
29:19
can kind of go for toe for toe, toe to toe with them, go tit for
29:23
tat. So give me Ole Miss.
29:25
I'm going to take them in the upset.
29:27
I'll take three points. So if it's a close win for
29:29
Miami, I'll take those points regardless.
29:31
But give me Ole Miss. We've gone back and forth on
29:33
this one man. I mean it's obvious it's a 3 1/2
29:35
point spread. It's the semi final.
29:36
So both both these teams are some of the best football team
29:41
teams in college football this year.
29:43
I I'm going to lay the points though I'm going to go Miami.
29:46
I I think that to to to contradict your what if Miami
29:51
has to get in a scoring match? What if all miss has to play in
29:54
a box? I think that's the what if all
29:56
misses to play this game in the phone booth?
29:58
I I think that it is. I think it's more likely this
30:02
game is played in the 20s and in the 40s.
30:05
And if that's the case, give me Miami.
30:07
I think that's the I think what I can trust in this game.
30:11
And Daniel, I'm to show my bias here.
30:14
It is hard for me to pick a non blue chip team to beat a blue to
30:17
win multiple of these games. I didn't think almost could be
30:20
Georgia. So there's that.
30:22
I was wrong there. They beat him.
30:23
Both these teams are hot. So I think you're going to get
30:25
their best game, which is good. Miami's ability to run the ball,
30:30
especially recently has really impressed me.
30:33
Fletcher runs so hard, man, that the offensive line that has now
30:37
grown up, all these five stars they've got in the offensive
30:39
line are now veterans. They're playing their butts off
30:43
so far in this playoff. I mean, and they've already gone
30:46
against, no offense, don't miss. They've already gone against too
30:49
much better defensive lines in Texas A&M and Ohio State.
30:53
So I would have said the same thing about Miami and Ohio State
30:56
saying again, it's it's what what, what's the button Ohio
30:59
State could press that it doesn't matter what you do.
31:02
If they start pressing that button and it's their it's their
31:04
aerate attack. If they're passing attack, Miami
31:06
was able to shut that down. I think they can do that against
31:09
Ole Miss so long as Chambliss doesn't hit broom.
31:12
If he does, I think you're probably right.
31:14
And in Ole Miss just he he says I'm him and and almost wins.
31:19
But I'll I'll lay the points here.
31:20
I do think this is like a 2420 kind of game and Miami's defense
31:24
wins them another game in the playoff and that they play the
31:28
national championship game in their home field in Miami here
31:32
in a couple weeks. So give me the Hurricanes lay
31:34
the points will be will be different on that one.
31:39
We go to the Peach Bowl. We've got Indiana, Oregon.
31:44
We've seen this game once in Eugene, Indiana.
31:47
You're 27 to 20 winners. They are what did I say, a four
31:52
point favorite in this one over Oregon.
31:54
They've been the best team in the country all year.
31:56
Dan Lanning's Ducks got some folks back from injury the last
31:59
two weeks. They're very hot.
32:01
They blow out Texas Tech. This should be just an
32:05
incredible match up. Daniel, who do you have in the
32:08
Peach Bowl? Yeah, I just, man, this one's,
32:14
oh, Indiana does not want me to pick them.
32:16
I'll say that. I've been picking against them
32:19
since before it was cool too. And they love that.
32:22
I pick against them because they win.
32:25
They've won every game. I keep doubting them and
32:28
doubting them and doubting them. Oregon lost to them the first
32:33
time. And that was kind of that first,
32:35
that first peek, you know? Oh, hey, this Indiana team is
32:40
legit. They went to Eugene, they beat
32:42
Oregon and they dominated them. It wasn't a particular close
32:48
game. Like towards the end, Indiana
32:51
kind of poured on a little bit. You can't teach an old dog new
32:53
tricks, man. I'm picking Oregon, I'm taking
32:56
the four points. I really truthfully believe in
32:59
Oregon's defense. I think that this game gets
33:01
played in a box similar to the Big 10 championship.
33:05
And so because of that, I think even if Oregon loses, it's going
33:09
to be close by like a a three-point margin.
33:11
But I think Oregon wins for the record, the Ducks are going to
33:15
fly together. Dude, this is this is Dan
33:17
Lanning's time to shine. Did you see the metric or the
33:21
not the metric, but the the meme.
33:23
There's a picture of all four head coaches that are left in
33:27
their Alabama attire. They're all saving disciples.
33:30
Technically, isn't that crazy. Like.
33:33
They're all you know. Some of them were, you know, one
33:36
year or. Yeah, landing was a one year GA
33:39
and they're like Saban tree, which I guess technically
33:42
because I'm I'm like, yeah, what kind of, you know, seems like a
33:45
curb. Tree quarterback coach.
33:46
And then he left and did his thing and he went down.
33:49
You know, Pete Golding was unceremoniously fired, but
33:52
really just told, hey, you can go take the old miss job or you
33:55
can be jobless. And then he took the old Miss
33:58
job. It won't be here.
34:00
Yeah, so. I think you're a great defensive
34:02
coordinator, just not here, Pete.
34:04
So wherever you want to be a great defensive coordinator
34:07
other than Alabama, you just let me know.
34:08
I'll help you find. It yes, and then Mario
34:10
Cristobal, of course, is offensive line coach.
34:12
So that's just it's it's funny to look at it like that, that,
34:15
you know, technically it all comes back to saving.
34:17
But of all of that to not be, you know, I know we're joking
34:22
mostly about that, but Lanning is the only one of these coaches
34:27
that does it Saban's way because he got that from Kirby doing
34:32
Kirby's way. So if if you're going off of
34:34
like a philosophical thing, this is kind of that that one like
34:40
grasp at normalcy I could look at as a college football fan
34:44
looking for it to be still normal is if Oregon goes through
34:48
and and wins and it's like, oh, you know what?
34:50
He came up through the ranks of those guys that dominated for
34:53
the past two decades. Yeah, I've, I've gone back and
34:56
forth in this game too. I woke up saying I'm going to
34:59
pick Indiana. I I'm picking Oregon.
35:02
I'm, I'm going to take the points.
35:03
I'm picking Oregon. Yes, this, this is a great tweet
35:07
from Chris Falika, the bear, He said biggest reason Indiana wins
35:12
is they don't do dumb stuff. Bad losses more than bad loses
35:16
more than good wins. As in like playing bad loses you
35:19
more games than playing good wins you games, right?
35:22
Indiana just doesn't do bad things.
35:24
They're the second fewest penalty yards per game in the
35:26
country. They lead the country in
35:28
turnover margin. They've only had eight turnovers
35:30
all season. They're third down defense is
35:33
they they hold opponents a 28% third down conversion percentage
35:38
and they lead the country and 3rd down conversions at 56
35:42
percent third down conversion rate.
35:44
They just don't beat themselves, Daniel.
35:47
I think they play that level in this game and again, it's just I
35:51
got I'm with you and you can't teach an old dog new tricks.
35:55
Oregon and Miami are the two teams left that I think have a
35:57
roster capable of winning a national championship.
36:00
I know that's like, how can you say that because Ole Miss in
36:03
Indiana only have to win two games?
36:05
I know, I know I'm going to have to see it to believe it.
36:09
Oregon has the best roster for my money left in college
36:13
football. I think at this point in the
36:15
season that matters a lot. I think coaching matters a lot.
36:19
I think it's Indiana probably has better coaching in this game
36:22
to be honest. The Signetti just a, you could
36:24
argue he's in the best job of all time.
36:27
As far as where the program was compared to what he's done in
36:31
Indiana. It's been incredible.
36:34
Give me the Ducks. They are healthier than they
36:36
were when they faced Indiana the first time.
36:38
They're not beating themselves like there were.
36:39
Their defense has grown. Then you know this is the second
36:42
and third best defense in the country according to SG Plus.
36:45
Excuse me, first and third Indiana 1, Oregon 3.
36:48
Ohio State was one they trade with Indiana after that after
36:52
the quarterfinals in FC Plus. So I think this will be a very
36:55
low scoring game. Indiana kind of blew it up in
36:58
late last time, 30 to 20. Had to correct myself there and
37:01
in the first round. I think this is like a 24 to 20
37:05
game for Oregon's. I think both semifinals are
37:08
played in the 20s. This should be a very, very good
37:12
This is probably gonna be a better get.
37:14
I think will be a better game. I think it's the two better
37:16
teams in Indiana or the excuse me then Ole Miss in Miami.
37:18
I think this will be the better semi final game.
37:21
This high level football man. Good coaching, high level
37:24
players playing at the highest level.
37:26
Great quarterback matchup. Should be a good uniform matchup
37:29
as long as Oregon doesn't wear black and Gray when their
37:32
opponent's primary color is black.
37:33
I don't know what that was about, but I mean, look, they
37:38
they had a good black uniform this season on the road against
37:40
Penn State with black pants and a black helmet when it was the
37:43
Penn State whiteout. See that was that was cool
37:45
looking when your when your opponent's primary color is
37:48
black dude, wear green and yellow.
37:49
What are we doing anyway? Beside the point should be a
37:52
good uniform. They wear green and yellow.
37:56
But really excited for this one. Give me the ducks and I'm with
37:59
you on the Indiana. Just prove me wrong again.
38:01
Honestly, Daniel, I'm rooting for Indiana because I said I
38:04
said pre show they've been the best team all year and I think
38:07
college football's a sport were most of the time prior to the 12
38:11
team era. The team that was the best team
38:14
of the regular season has won the national championship a lot
38:18
in the sport more than any other US sport.
38:21
If you exception, honestly, last year is an exception.
38:24
You can't tell me that a team that lost twice was one of the
38:28
best. He was the best team through 12
38:30
games. They weren't high State was the
38:34
best team at the end of the season last year.
38:35
Absolutely. The ends are the best team all
38:38
season. And honestly, I'm rooting for
38:41
him. Give me the Ducks.
38:42
I'll take the points in case they lose close.
38:45
We get 4. That's a that's a good number
38:47
because they can lose by three. So yeah, give me the Ducks, man.
38:51
That's great man. This is going to be a fun one.
38:54
I'm excited to see both of these matchups.
38:57
Yeah. It is we.
39:00
It's funny because I think for so long we were looking and
39:04
saying when Georgia and Ohio State play in the Fiesta Bowl,
39:10
that's going to be the national championship.
39:13
And now you basically have had to flip it because the 2 lower
39:16
seeds won the other one. And these are the 2 high seeds.
39:19
This is, you know, the one versus 5 instead of the, what is
39:23
it 6 versus 10 for the other one.
39:24
So it's kind of a, a flip of kind of the the psychology of it
39:28
all, man. Last week they threw us all off,
39:30
man. Yeah, it's a different area of
39:32
football. I'm having to get used to it.
39:33
So go Hoosiers rooting for him. We'll be back next week to recap
39:37
our semi finals, talk about the national championship, make
39:40
picks in that game. We're not going anywhere.
39:42
So be sure to stay tuned right here at the extra Point on
39:46
YouTube and Instagram. You can follow Daniel on Twitter
39:50
at Deep South Daniel. You can follow me on Twitter at
39:52
Jacob Karnes with AK. That will do it for this edition
39:55
of the Extra Point. He is Daniel.
39:57
I am Jacob. See ya.