Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Price Controls, Britain's Struggling Jobs Market, and the SpaceX IPO

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Price Controls, Britain's Struggling Jobs Market, and the SpaceX IPO · Merryn Talks Money

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Merton
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Talks Money Markets Rap. We'll be talking about the latest
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: moves in the market this week and what's been driving them.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I'm joined Steppic's senior reporter and author of the Money Distilled newsletter.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I'm filling in for Merton as she's off on holiday
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: and join me in the London studio today for our
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: market rap is Sam Onstead, editor in the Markets Today
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Live blog, which a regular regular reader of keeps me
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: on the straight and narrow. Welcome to the show. Sam,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Thank you, thanks very much for joining us.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Thank you very much.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's been quite a busy few weeks really with the
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: UK and yeah, politics and all the rest of it.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But one thing we got this week which I thought
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: was interesting is all of the economic data that's come
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: out of jobs and then flee and to do. As
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: we're recording a thosday, we've had the PMI Asrael and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: it's actually been kind of a relief and a funny
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: kind of way because guilt markets have kind of come
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: off a but because yes.
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  Speaker 2: Let's take it chronologically, right, So over the course of
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: the week we had jobs data first, right, pretty bad.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: It was pretty much pretty much across the boards, quite
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: a lot of jobs being lost. So I'm not always
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: a bit skeptical about the payroll employee number because it's
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: it's very very prone to revision. But it was very
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: high one hundred thousand, so pretty significant. And there's a
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: couple of other areas of it that are very soft.
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  Speaker 2: So vacancies have fallen a lot, and they're getting here
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: at kind of both ends of the income spectrum. So
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: you're seeing entry level jobs, so the retail sex for example,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: vacancies are falling loads there, So for that's for kind
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: of the lower income you know, entry level gigs there a.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Nicely of course, have been driving up in the past exactly.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: And then at the other end of it AI, you know,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: the other second to the where the vacancies are going down,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: lie is in it, so you're are both ends of here.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: You're seeing these kind of squeezes happen second jobs. Hours
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: worked in second jobs is a joint record high. So
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: all these kind of worrying signs starting to come through
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: that that things are looking a bit a bit softer
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: in the jobs market.
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  Speaker 1: Well, it's also on the wages, isn't it because you're
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: going to look at the wages, there's still some base
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: effects from the public sector stuff, and then the private
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: sector is rising up with three point two it was,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: isn't it. And so you're basically told me about wages
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: being flat to fall in pretty much in terms, and
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: that's never great for consumption or for people's mood apart
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: from it and else. But the other thing I thought
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: was interesting was, and I don't the job state is
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: a bit ropey anyway, and the Owens has admitted, but
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: construction sector wages are laid down yes, yea zero point
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: six percent norminal terms exactly. Yeah, I find what's happening
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: with the building sector in his country? And what just
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: actually wait, Stagg and everything number you look at is yeah,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: always through the floor.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I mean that is the sector you know,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: if you're going to pick one out that is going
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: to be immediately impacted by what's going on around the
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: rest of the world, you know, because the transport costs
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: are going up, and we can go on as well
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: to inflation, which is the next report we got. Over
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: the course of the week, you're seeing this come through.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: So so the inflation report is a bit weird, right,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: because there were so many base effects and distortions in
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: it that the headline rate goes down, but it's not
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: really telling you the true story of what's going on
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: underneath that. You know, petrol prices sixteen seventeen percent, you know,
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: for diesel and for petrol, very significant increase, you know that,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: and that goes across everything. You know, transport costs go up,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: everything kind of goes up. For construction, you've got that
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: in addition to a huge supply chain issue. And then
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: in addition to that as well, where you just mentioned,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: you know, when it comes to say retail, the retail sector,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: construction as well, these are jobs where the extra taxes
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: on employers, minimum wage increases, everything, and that has all
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: come through too. You said, the costs in the construction
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: sector are so biting, pretty hard.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty dramatic, I mean, and that sort of
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: does take his on the inflation figures. Because the other
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: thing I thought was interesting we both had a bitter
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: and moaning about, In fact, everyone's a bitterer and moan
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: about this this week, the idea that we should have
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: this voluntary agreement to fix prices on grosaries because One
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: thing I thought was interesting about the inflation figures is
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: that the reason that came in below the three percent
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: is primarily because energy bills went down this month relative
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: and that's because we've got this quarterly price cap, so
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: it's highly pure. And also because the Chancellor giving one
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty quid to the kind of put ithold,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: so we actually have like literally got price fixing that
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: has kept inflation is a surprisingly low level in theory,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: but of course it's going to spike later in the year.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: But now we're talking about having more price controls on
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: one of what is arguably I mean, can you think
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: of more competitive sector food retail and that you can't?
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  Speaker 2: No, no, I mean John you're saying, but I think
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  Speaker 2: even banks don't come from I mean, the grocery sector
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  Speaker 2: in the UK is incredibly competitive. I mean they if
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: you live in this country, you see in their adverts
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  Speaker 2: they are advertising against each other. Like most of the
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: time they're saying we're matching you know, Tesco, we're matching
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: with Audial save for Sainsbury's or you know, all of
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: them do the same thing. So this is an extremely
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: competitive market. What they were talking about this sort of
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: voluntary price scale. Well, the industry does that already, you know,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: voluntarily if you like it, because of that, because it
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: is far more important for them to get people through
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: the door than it is you know, they will eat
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: margin and they will do that really until they absolutely can't.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: We're recording this on the day that Walmart's results came
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: out in the US. Right. The way that Walmart and
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Tesco and Sainsbury's operate is quite similar. You know, Walmart
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: want volume, so they keep prices low get people through
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: the door. But they're saying today fuel costs are going up,
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: you know, and they don't have this big increase in
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  Speaker 2: labor costs that you know. You know, Tesco is the biggest,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest private sector employer in the country.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: It's a huge increase in labor costs for them. There
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: is only so much that they can keep those price
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  Speaker 2: under control. But they do, you know, and you know,
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  Speaker 2: within the within the food price inflation, even when we
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: have the spike in twenty twenty three. Coming out of
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: that spike, again, they compete with each other really hard,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: and food price has probably come down a little bit
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: faster than they otherwise work because the competitiveness is so high. So, yeah,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: you're mentioning that you and I both have sort of
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: complained about this a little bit independently over the over
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: the course of the week. You know, if we were
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: to continue doing that, I think our voices would get
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: louder and more excitly because it's such a sort of
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: unworkable policy.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: It's like Wayne, way make it. I mean, I guess
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: part of the problem is that Breton's problems are largely supplied.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Said yes, it much harder to get oil and or
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: see you for example, the energy in general, then it
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: needs to be making out much older to build stuff
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: than it needs to be. These things are defficult issues,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: the building more so than the energy. That's more I mean,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: I would say ideological, but that's you know, a discussion,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: but it's tackling all these things. Just comes down't the
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: subsidizing demand or making making potential shortages even mos.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, where I have a little bit of sympathy with
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: the government is that their job is incredibly difficult because
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: the external supply shock that you're seeing is so significant
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: and so completely out of their control. And that that's
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: then coupled as well with a with a global shift
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: in bond yields. You know, we talked about, we've written
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: a lot about guilty yields over the course of the
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. You mentioned at the start that
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: guilt yelds have actually come down a bit over the
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: course of this week, but a lot of that is
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  Speaker 2: influenced by things that are completely out of the control
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: of the UK because we're, you know, an important economy,
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  Speaker 2: because we don't have control all over all of these
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: areas of production, and so it is very hard in
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  Speaker 2: fairness to them to come up with anything to do.
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  Speaker 2: And you know, again we had to today Rachel Reeves
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  Speaker 2: laying out a set of cost of living measures and
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: they are they're not needle movers. You know, they're not
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: going to change things very much because there really isn't
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  Speaker 2: an enormous amount that can be done. And what probably
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: is needed, if again, if it's maybe going to be
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: a bit tougher, is that it's a bit more innovative
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: thinking on how they how they could potentially support households.
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  Speaker 2: But the fact is, you have an energy supply shop
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: they're like you're having now, there's not a huge amount
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: that they can do.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I mean I also, I mean, this is
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: not this specific government's fault that this is decades of
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: plaque building up in the nor wine being able to
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: tackle it. So I mean, yeah, there's just more of
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: the latest than a long lane. This is not party political.
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  Speaker 1: This is just political to d We got the pm
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  Speaker 1: A which again just leadaled on the MESSURI. But they're
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: pretty bad, you know, and it's snapshot of what it's
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: going on. That's surveys.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: So for the services, services in the UK obviously is
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: the dominant part of the economy. Manufacturing remains is growing.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: The reason for that, you know, again bit idiosyncratic, you know,
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: but you know, lots of orders being stocked out. The
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: stockpiling of orders is kind of helping the manufacturing sector.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Try and get ahead of future.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: So that will come out as the egoes on. But
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: the services is pretty poor, you know, everything you would
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: not want to see is kind of their input costs rising.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: A lot confidence you know is taking it here, you know,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: partly because of I say mostly because of the ARAM
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit also because of the political uncertainty now
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: in the UK. So almost every area of the PMI
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: is pretty soft. And in addition, you know, adding that
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: to the employment data early in the week, which was
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: outright fairly weak, and then looking at the inflation data,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: which is a bit of a misnomer and will kind
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: of shift over the course of the year. The picture
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: is it's not that pleasant, John, to be honest.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: So I suppose the funny thing then is for all
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: of that kind of slightly raw py economic data, then
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: it kind of looks as if we're going in a
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: gentle dive. Forcibly, the kind of the stocks aren't that bordered? Really,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, how much that do you put down to it?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And being the fact that actually this data has then
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: made it more likely that the Bank of England won't
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: hate entrance through.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that's been very helpful. That's certainly
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: been very helpful in the bomb market this week. So
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: for guilt markets, which had already you know, they've been elevated,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: you know, years have been elevated quite a bit. For
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: the stock market, I mean the first one hundred so
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: written of this on our on our blog a few
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: times sort of doesn't really care about the UK that much.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: You know, the vast majority of it is international. The
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: part that does care has got bigger, which is banks
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: but even they as well are in such a good,
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: strong kind of financial position that for the most part
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: they can kind of skirt through a lot of the
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: issues that to the war you know in the Middle
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: East of HOS brought up. And then you know, if
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: we're looking beyond the UK, it sort of stocks more generally.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: You know, this is the AI story is still very
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: very very strong, and you know, we're had in video
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: results this week. You know, the world's most valuable company
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: making an enormous amount of money. Not expectations not enough
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: to Yeah, you know, often when I think when you
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: look at video, the expectations are so high that when
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: you look at the range of estimates you kind of
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: have to look at the one right at the top,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: and if they don't get past the one right at
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: the top, then it's kind of a disappointment. But they
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: are making an enormous amount of money. You know, we
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: we calculate, we were calculating yesterday that their quarterly revenue
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: is higher than all but five fort one hundred companies
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: make annually. So it's an enormous amount of money. So
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: that that story has has continued and and there's no
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: you know, real sign that that momentum is slowing down
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: all that much at the moment. So yeah, stocks have
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: kind of brushed most of it off.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: You Well, one thing I was going to ask you
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: before we can have our pop so to do with
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: this spiece perspectives, And obviously the SpaceX is the big
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: exciting ap or this year, and we've get ORPI and
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: AI and Anthropic, what is what are your thoughts on
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the idea that there's there's a big doll up of
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: equity hurt in the markets, maybe the thing that they
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: feigned a bit hard to digest, or the thing that
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: knocks everyone well maybe even at top of the market indicator,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: but certainly something that pushes bike and the bull market.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: So you've got three three companies here, who are you
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: know what? One of the things we wrote earlier today
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: actually was that if you take the three the estimated
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: value of the three companies and you know, these estimates
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: could change quite a bit over the course. Ye, but
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: where we are now, the Anthropic plus SpaceX plus open
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: AI is more than the entire value of the footsy
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: one hundred. So if all three of those were to list,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: it would effectively be like the S and P five
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: hundred doing a kind of bolt on acquisition of the
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Footy one hundred and just chucking it on the side
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: and becoming the S and P six hundred. The thing
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: about them as well is that these are three companies
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: that are kind of almost kind of epoch defining companies,
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: you know, so SpaceX, you know, the space thing is
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: much more long term, isn't isn't quite as immediate as
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: the AI story. But Anthropic and Open AI are enormally
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: like generationally important companies for the way that we're going
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: to live our lives because they're p really the two
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: that are at the forefront of everything that's happening. And
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: when you get companies like that list quite often, and
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: there was an element of this in the SpaceX IPO
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: as well, they can be a bit weird, you know,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: like some of the stuff that's in there can be
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: a bit different, because these are companies that maybe don't
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: really think about how they run themselves in the same
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: way that you're a regular company does. So, you know, Elon,
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: you know, in the SpaceX, in their in their IPO filing,
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: one of the targets for Elon musk to be able
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: to get an extra quite significant amount of money would
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: be to create a one million person colony on Mars.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: If he did that, I can see if the valuation
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: of the SpaceX we justify yourself if that is something
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: that Yeah, But so.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: You know when you're when you're combining these companies that
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: are are huge. So say say for example, Anthropics valued
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: about nine hundred billion dollars, so it would immediately become
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest listed companies in the world. You know,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: you you add all of those into the market. It
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: takes a little while maybe for people just to decipher,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: you know, what do we do with this, like how
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: do they run themselves? Open ai has a kind of
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: interesting structure. You know, Microsoft don't twenty percent of it.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Then you've got the open Ai Foundation. The inner workings
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: of that might be quite interesting for people to read
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: once the filing comes over it, you know eventually. And
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: also you know, these are the companies that are particularly
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: open aion anthropic at the forefront of the thing that's
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: powering everything in market. So if you get them come
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: forward and actually their finances maybe don't look as fantastic
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: as as we initially think that they may, and that
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: then maybe threatens the investment that's going on, you know,
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: with AI, which is powering economies all over the world.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: You know, South Korea's economy right now really needs the
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: ability to keep going. There is absolutely the possibility that
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: as these three come in, you're getting it, as you mentioned,
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: a massive amount of new equity. And if there's confusion,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: if there's a sense of trepidation, it could certainly put
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a dent in things.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: So give me the choice the last question, and not
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: personal financial leves here of course, if you had the opportunity,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: would you buy SPA six at the APL No, I would,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: But then, you know, I think when you're I mean
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: I was a stotual porter for a long time and
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: I still you know, to an extent, I still am.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: And when you read you know IPO prospectuses in particular,
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: you know there's a lot of kind of puff in them,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: you know, about about what what you know we can do.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: And I mean I particularly remember going back to we Work,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: you know, we Work i PO, which was you know,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: this company that was again like a kind of epoch
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: defining company, and everything just fell apart because their IPO
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: is with such a mess. So I wouldn't, but of
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: course you know if you want to do, and obviously
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: no financial advice whatsoever.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Well, thanks very much, Sam, No I really appreciate that,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: and thanks for coming in and everyone. You should read
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the Markets Today blog daily on the Bloomberg website. Thanks
• 16:17
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