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Transcript

NCAAF Week 4 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is anymore. But I don't even know what day it
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: is anymore. Man, back with you after the worst day
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: that I could possibly have, Back with you as I
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: always am until I die, at least ohe and two
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the slump series,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody? It
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: sewed back with you? This is better off dead. College
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: football Week four. We'll get into college football in a bit.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I have four plays as usual. I feel like I
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: like almost intentionally do that, but it's just kind of
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the way that it worked out. I don't know. I'll
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: give up four plays. We went one and two today,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: even though we were sure to go two and one today.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: And of course I didn't give out a play in
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Iowa and that was a winner, so that was not
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: a play. I didn't have it in my pick six,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: pick seven whatever. Should have just done it. Fuck me,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I guess we absolutely were about to be two and
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: one in the baseball players, though Baltimore got there in
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the first five innings. That was fine. They won the
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: game outright too, so Yankee suck whatever. That was good
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: good in every way. Houston lost. I mean, nothing you
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: could really do about that Brian wu he just beat us.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: He was good whatever, just couldn't get that one done.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Miami and Texas. Fuck you, dude, fuck you. You have
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: a game that's one to one at the end of
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: the ninth inning and it goes over eight What the fuck?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Fuck major League Baseball, Fuck the ghost run a rule.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I'm so fucking sick of this, dude. Like that game
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: was so far under the total. It was over, and
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: if I had gone first five innings it would have
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: been a winner. It was one nothing until like the
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: seventh inning. It was an easy under. The game was over.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I'm like, all right, we went two and one today,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: that's it. Oh no, wait, it goes into extra innings
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: and then Miami's three in the top of the or
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: there's two in the top of the ten, so it's
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: three to one. Okay, that's still fine. Just don't allow
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: two runs to Texas. Texas can't hit anyway, so you're
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: still gonna have the game go way under. Oh no, wait,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Texas does the worst thing possible and they tie the game,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: and then it goes more innings and then it winds
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: up getting to like ten runs in twelve innings or
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: some bullshit. Because every fucking inning has the ghost runner
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: on second you start with a run around second. Fuck you.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I hate it, dude. A game that should go way
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: under just soars over the total just because of the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: fucking ghost runner. I don't even know what to say anymore.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: They have to get rid of this fucking rule. It's
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: a COVID relic. I don't know why they even put
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: it in the first place. It makes no sense. It
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: has nothing to do with a fucking virus. It doesn't
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: make the game more entertaining. It's not even fucking baseball.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Fuck you Jesus, Yeah, DJ, what's up man? Nate? What's up? Man? Uh?
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: You're You're not gonna like what I have to say
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: about most of that. I will say, you might like
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: what I have to say about that game. We're gonna
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: get into it. I am definitely gonna talk about I
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: guess I'll talk about all of those games if you want.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I wasn't sure if I was gonna talk about NC
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: State and Duke, but it is a North Carolina rivalrous
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I guess I have to rant over. Let's get into
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: this bullshit college football and college football has been decent
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: so far. It was good for me last year. But
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: here's the thing. Like the years that I had that
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: were really good, Like the first year that I did
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: this show, college football was like my only losing sport
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: and then I have like a bad year. Last year
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: in college football was one of my best college football seasons.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: I had a huge run in college football last year.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I believe we're up in college football this year because
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks have been good. Let's keep
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: it going. Week one was bad, but each of the
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: last two weeks were pretty good, I think, so let's
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: keep it going. I think we're only slightly up though.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it going, man, So yeah, talk about all
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: the big games. Of course, we'll just go right into it. Man,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: noon on Fox we have. This is bizarre to me
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: that there's a noon game in Utah, like noon Eastern.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: When the fuck does this ever happen? This game is
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be at like ten am in Utah? When does
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: this ever happen? What is this high school football? When?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: When does this ever happen? I don't get it, dude.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Like the only time I can remember a football game
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: being that early was like high school on like Thanksgiving,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: because high school was always like Friday nights. I would
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: go to the games. My high school is actually a
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: football school, football and soccer. We didn't have any like
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: we weren't like a football powerhouse or anything like that,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: but in the region we were like a football school.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: And like I can remember, the only like really early
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: football game was like the one on Thanksgiving morning or whatever.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, this makes no sense, but it's
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: number seventeen Texas at number sixteen Utah. Both teams are undefeated,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: they're both three and oh this is a big twelve
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: conference matchup. This is a big game, man. Texas Tech
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: put up some ridiculous offensive numbers so far, but I
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: think we have to dial it back a little bit
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: on Texas Tech. So far. Yes, their offense is good.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Yes they're averaging like fifty nine points a game or
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: fifty seven points a game or whatever it is. They
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: haven't really played anybody yet. Okay, they played Arkansas, Pine Bluff,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Kent State. I know they're an FBS team, but Kent
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: State really bad. Oregon State also, I have to check
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: my audio levels. I guess Oregon State was the only
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: FBS team Texas Tech played so far, and they blew
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: them out. Which was kind of expected. Oregon State not
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: a good team. They're in the orphaned you know, packed
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: pack two now or whatever the hell it's called. So
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think this is impressive. So this is a
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: big time step up in class for Texas Tech here, man,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: this is going to be by far the best defense
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: in Texas Tech is playing so far this year, and
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be one of the better defenses they faced
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: this season. And Utah has the better defense over Texas Texas.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: This is kind of an offense versus defense type of
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: thing here in this game. Utah, on the other hand,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think they've played a particularly difficult
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: schedule yet either. But they did beat UCLA and yeah,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: and then they beat cp that's not good. They beat
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein now that's cal Pauly and FCS team, and
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: then they beat Wyoming. This game would also mean maybe
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit more to Utah though, because this is
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: actually their FBS home opener. They haven't played a home
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: FBS game yet, so the crowd's gonna be there. It's
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be crazy. Utah does have the better defense, you know,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I prefer defense over offense. This is close to being
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: a play for me. Actually I'm not making it a play,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: but it was close to being a play on Utah
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: if that wasn't obvious. I like Utah. If you saw
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: my preview show, I liked Utah coming into the season.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Utah they have some more like they just have more
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: like continuity of this year because last year it was
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: all about who was that quarterback they had last year
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: was just hurt all the time. You never knew when
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: he was gonna be back or when he was gonna
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: be playing. I can't even remember his name. My mind
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: is just slipping on it. But he's gone. So Utah
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: they just have more continuity now. Man. They know who
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: their quarterback is, and I thought it was gonna be Wilson,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: who was the backup last year, but it's dampier and
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: he's doing a decent job. But he can run the
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: ball as well. He's kind of a dual threat quarterback.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: And Utah, I mean, their offense is still I think
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: at least slightly balanced, but they're more I mean, they're
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a defensive team, man. And the thing about Utah, they're
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: one of the only physical teams in the Big twelve,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: which is kind of why they have somewhat of an
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: advantage playing against these teams because most of these teams
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: are finesse teams, and that includes Texas Tech. I know,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech with the nil that went out, they got
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: some big players. Whatever, good players. I'm still gonna go
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: with the with the defense or the offense. Man. You know,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: the public likes to do the opposite. The public's gonna see,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: oh my god, Texas Tech puts up a million points
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: and there uh you know, this is a very close
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: ranked match up here, and Texas Tech is getting points.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: It looks, uh, you know, it looks pretty tempting to
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: take Texas Tech as the underdog. You got Morton as
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: their quarterback. He absolutely lit up Oregon State. The only
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: reasons he didn't really put up more stats than the
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: other two games that they have were probably because he
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: just didn't play that much. Because they were blowouts. They
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: probably took him out. I still like Utah though, Man, Utah,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: you're getting a decent price on them. Actually they're down
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: from four and a half to three and a half.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: You might even see a three out there. Fifty four
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets are on Utah. I kind of thought
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: the public could be on the Texas tech side. But
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: it still does look like it's a bit of an
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: anti public play anyway, because Utah does have more of
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: the cash on them sixty four percent. That is Yeah,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Cam Rising, thank you, Nate. Yeah that was his Why
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: did I forget that? Yeah? That was his name. Mister
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: uh always hurt. Yeah, Rising is gone. It's a new
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: era for Utah. There might They've been my pick to
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: win the Big twelve. So we'll see what happens with
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: that one. But yeah, I think I close the other
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: scores Tabby. I think Utah is there is the right
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: way to look in that game. I'm gonna skip some
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: of these mismatches. I mean, I guess I'll talk about
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Oregon State Oregon real quick. Even though this is a
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: mismatch own three Oregon State baby against three and oh
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: number six Oregon. I'm only talking about it because it
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: is a rivalry game. I believe this is the Civil War?
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Is that the name of this rivalry? I forget. I
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: think the winner gets a platypus because it's it's hilarious
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: because the platypus has a duck bill for the Oregon Ducks,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: and it has a beaver tail basically for the Oregon
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: State beaversus. So the winner gets a platypus. Yeah, totally
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: makes sense. The platypus probably the weirdest animal in existence.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Frankenstein of an animal. I believe it only has one
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: hole too. It's it's it's a it's a monotream. It
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: has one hole for reproduction shitting and whatever and pissing
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: whatever and not eating. I guess because it has the
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: bill that I don't don't even know, man, But yeah,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: it's a fucking whatever. It's a weird fucking animal. It
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: looks like somebody took pieces of other animals and sewed
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: them together. And yeah, maybe that's what God did. Maybe
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: he was just wasted when he created the duck bull
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: play outipus. I don't know. But in this game, Oregon
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: doesn't really need style points at this point, man, They
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: don't need to cover my margin here. So I actually
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: probably lead to Oregon State in this one. Oregon they
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: did start Big ten player already. They got an easy
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: win at Northwestern last timeutal then they actually I don't
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: think they covered in this game. Northwestern sucks. I don't
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: think Oregon covered in this game. And I don't know
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: where's the points spread? Where do I see it here?
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: It is? Yeah, it was twenty four and a half,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: so yeah, Northwestern actually covered that. But again, Oregon, I
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: think they're in kind of get in get out mode
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: right now, man, even though this is at home, they
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: got bigger games coming up, and they have the biggest
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: game on deck, which is Penn State, number two in
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the country, and it's gonna be a rematch of the
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: conference title game last year, which Oregon did win. So
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a huge game for Penn State. Uh,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: but it's a big game for both teams, so I
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: think Oregon might not really totally focus on Oregon State.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: But for Oregon State, this is one of their biggest
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: games of the season. Man. They're all three. They lost
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: to Texas Tech last time. Texas Tech is good. Oregon
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: State actually has not played any FCS team, so all
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: their games have been against FBS teams, so at least
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: there is that maybe some of them are BS teams
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: as well, though caled Fresno I don't think are really
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: that good. Oregon State, They're not a good team, but
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: this is basically like their Super Bowl because I think
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: they pretty much know I mean they're in like a conference.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: It isn't even a conference, so winning this doesn't really matter,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: even though they do play Washington State at the end
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: of the year. This is their big game. Man, Like,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna They're probably not going to Bowl. Nothing's
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: probably happening for them, so I think they are gonna
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: be focused on this. Sure it's a complete mismatch, but again,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Oregon doesn't really need to show up here. The line's
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: already down from thirty seven to thirty four, eighty seven
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: percent tickets, seventy two percent of the casual Oregon. I
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: would take the points with the Oriot State if I
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: was gonna play that game, which I won't, but that
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: is what I would do. I'm skipping some of these
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: games that are just less interesting. We get to the
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: three point thirty PM slate on ABC, which is Auburn Oklahoma.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Somebody can if somebody knows, because we had John, our
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Tennessee fan in the chat last week, who probably is
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: pissed about the outcome of that game, which is probably
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: why he's not back. I hope he's alive because he
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: knew that the college game Day was gonna be at Tennessee.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: I never know where college game Day is. I know
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be either one of the ESPN games or
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: one of the ABC games. It might be this game
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Auburn Auburn Oklahoma. Not entirely sure, man, But it's a
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: big game. Number twenty two Auburn, number eleven Oklahoma. It's
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: an SEC game. Both teams are undefeated, big time game. Man.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: It might be even a little bit bigger for Auburn
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: because it's revenge for Auburn. But is it. I mean, yes,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Auburn lost to Oklahoma last year at Auburn, and I
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: was particularly pissed about that because that was the game
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: where I believe I had to play on Auburn in
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: that game and Auburn was winning by multiple scores with
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: about eight minutes left and they blew the whole game.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: So you can find my video on that where I
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: gave up that play and rampt it about that loss.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: That was not fun. That should have been a win.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's revenge because Auburn did lose it home
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: to Oklahoma. But it's kind of weird because Oklahoma's quarterback
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: who won that game last year was Jackson Arnold, and
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: he's Auburn's quarterback now, So is he playing for revenge
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: against himself? He's on the team that he beat last year,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: So what do you call that? Is it revenge? I
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: don't know. Very very strange situation. But what that does
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: mean is that Jackson Arnold, he's not gonna really be intimidated.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think going to the place where he used
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: to play, even though it's gonna be the crowd's gonna
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: be against him this time, but he's used to playing
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: in Norman, Oklahoma at least, so maybe that kind it
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: makes this a little bit of less a little bit
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: less bad of a spot for Auburn. And by the way,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: this also isn't their first true road game, because you
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: know I talk about when a team hasn't played a
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: true road game since last year or whatever, that first
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: true road game could be pretty difficult. But Auburn did
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: start the season by winning at Baylor, so they do
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: have a road game out of the way. And they
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: didn't play particularly well last week against little brother South Alabama.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: I talked about that on the show last week. I
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: said I thought South Alabama would cover they did. I
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: think Auburn was just looking ahead. Man. It was a
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: look ahead to this big game here against Oklahoma. So
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: South Alabama, you know, they step it up for a
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: game against Auburn because it's a little brother versus big
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: brother in state situation there. So yeah, there are definitely reasons.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: So Auburn might be more focused here because that game
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: just doesn't really tell tell you anything, because I really
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: think Auburn just didn't didn't totally show up there, and
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: because they didn't win by that much, they probably are thinking, well,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: we need to refocus here. But it's not like it's
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: not like they need to be old to focus anymore.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Against Oklahoma. Oklahoma will also show up focus. I mean,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that. And Oklahoma was my only loss.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: On Saturday last week, I gave out Temple on the show.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: That was the only play that I lost on because
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a bad spot. Man. Oklahoma was
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: coming up that big win over Michigan, win against a
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: huge opponent, huge name, and they had the SEC opener
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: at home coming up this week against Auburn, so I
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: thought it was a sandwich about a weird spot going
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: to Temple. Temple was putting up some offense too, and
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: it looks like Oklahoma has improved their defense, man, and
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: that's what you need to do in the SEC. Oklahoma
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: coming over to the SEC, they were not really a
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: defensive team in the Big twelve, more finesse offense, that's
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: kind of what Oklahoma was. But the last few years
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: they've kind of bolstered their defense and holding Temple to
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: three points. Temple, as I said, their offense was on
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: fire coming into that game. So that was a good
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: defensive performance from Oklahoma. And their offense is on fire too,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: like they can. They started to run the ball a
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: little bit more last week with Blaylock, and they have
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Matier and Matier can actually move around with his feet too.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Matier who used to be on Washington State. He's been
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: pretty good as their quarterbacks so far too. So this
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma offense is pretty balanced. I do still pretty much
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: think that Auburn does probably have the better defense though
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: because they're SEC. I mean, they're like full on SEC.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma is still kind of improving their defense. I do
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: think you're getting the better defense getting points with Auburn
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: here and an Auburn does seem to be playing a
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: bit better this year so far, after I think they
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: last year they kind of underperformed too. I think they
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: were better than they looked last year. This year they're
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: kind of getting it together. They have a new quarterback
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: versus I said, Jackson Arnold, but he's kind of experienced
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: because he was on Oklahoma. Yeah, I'm gonna have a man,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: this is a tough game to figure out. Man. I
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: guess I would slightly lean to Auburn here, even though
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: usually when you see a matchup like this between two
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: ranked teams, the public's tendency is gonna be to, oh,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: like this going to be a close game, and it
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: looks like six and a half, seven points, it's kind
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: of a lot of points. So the public kind kind
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: of has a tendency to go with the underdog here.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: But it looks like they're not here because I think
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: they're just impressed with what Oklahoma's doing so far. And yeah,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: it does show me something at Oklahoma. As I was
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: gonna say, in that bad spot last week against Temple,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: they still showed up in one easily. So yeah, that
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: shows you that Oklahoma might not even be prone to
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: like lacking focus in some of these letdown spots. But again,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, man, it could be a
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: couple too many points in this particular on Auburn. I
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: know they don't usually go to Oklahoma, but for Jackson Arnold,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna be intimidated by that. I don't think
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: it does mean Oklahoma will be facing a quarterback they
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: kind of know his tendencies, but they still don't really know.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's in a new system, right, He's not
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: running Oklahoma's system anymore, so Oklahoma still has to kind
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: of figure out what Auburn system is doing. So it's
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: not like they could just shut down what Arnold is
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: trying to do necessarily just by knowing his tendencies. It's
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: always tough for me to gauge that, like who has
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the advantage when it's a quarterback facing his former team.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: But you know he's gonna be pumped up for it. Man,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: he gets to play against his former team in the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: place where he used to play, so and you know
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: some of the people that show up are gonna be
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Arnold fans. Oklahoma's up from six to seven. Here's seventy
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: one percent to take a seventy two percent of the cash.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I would read that much into
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: a one percentage difference so between the cash and the tickets,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking that Oklahoma. To me, it looks like they're
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the public side. I mean, and I don't want to
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: always lean against the public, but I think you want
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: to do it most often because I think more often
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: than not, the anti public side will be the side
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: that comes in, you know, not to that high of
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: a degree, but more often than it doesn't. Uh So, Nate,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: you like Materia, He is good. I'm gonna lead to
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Auburn in that game though, man to the Arnold's side,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: and Auburn does still have what's there? They have that
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: really really good wide receiver there. I forget his name,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: But I don't want to spend too much time on
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: each one of these games. But yeah, Number thirteen Old
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Miss and Tulane. These teams are both three and oh Ole.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Miss is ranked thirteenth of the country. Tulane, this is
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: a program that's really dramatically improved over the last few years.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: They don't have their quarterback from last year anymore. It's
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: just Darien Mensa who is at Duke and Tulane did
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: just beat Duke last week. That was a big game.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: They beat their former quarterback. This is also a big
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: game though, So the question is Tulaine gonna be in
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: any sort of letdown spot because they did beat Duke,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: they beat Mensa, their former quarterback at home, they beat it,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: they beat the Society of Nerds Mensa. Tulane, this is
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: still like the biggest game left on their schedule, arguably
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: the biggest game on their entire schedule until you know,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: we're talking about like maybe winning the conference or whatever.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: This is old, miss man. They're going to face an
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: SEC team. So Tulane, my guess is they're still gonna
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: get up for this. I don't think you really it
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: could possibly be in a letdown spot when you have
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: a big game like this coming up. The question is
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: can they maintain that effort two weeks in a row.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: That's really what you have to gauge. Oh, miss, I
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: think they gotta be taking a little bit of a
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: step down this year because you know, they don't have
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Jackson Dart anymore. It does look like their quarterback is
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: actually out Simmons. That's interesting, so that might kind of
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: change this handicap a little bit. I don't know when
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: it was that he got hurt, but they had Shambless
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: come into the game, not Shambles Shambless. Shambless. He played
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: last week and he looks like he kind of lit
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: it up against Arkansas. Let me see, did he Trinidad shambless?
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Jeez Simmons, I guess got hurt almost immediately. So Shambless
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: played the entire game. So then the question kind of
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: becomes is this even an injured player spot at all?
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Because you know, I mean, this handicap, this is why
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna give out this game. Man. There are
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of factors in this game that you have
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: to try to figure out. Is this an injured player
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: spot now? Because Shamblass played almost the entire game last week,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: so you consider that to be really was that the
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: injured player spot? I don't know, because of course he
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: came in, you know, Arkansas had not they had not
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: like game plan for facing him. They had game plan
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: for Simmons. And now Simmons is out and we don't
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: know if he's gonna play in this game or not.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: So it's interesting, man. So if Simmons comes back, then
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: is that a reverse injine player spot? I mean, it's crazy.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: So the injured player spot For people that don't follow me,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Basically what happens is the first game that like you're
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback, for example, like a player that really really matters,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: first game that he's out and doesn't play, the line
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: moves to accommodate for that, and usually it overreacts, and
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: the team actually overreacts in the other way, knows that
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: they have to step up their game without that player,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: So you actually get value of playing on the injured
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: player's team in that one game. So that's what the
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: theory is. And then the reverse of that is the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: reverse injury player. When that star player comes back, the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: line also gets affected obviously, and that team is gonna
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: have less value on them when that happens, because, especially
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: if the team did well with the backup or whatever,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: when the starting quarterback comes back, the team could kind
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: of take a little bit of a step back realizing, oh,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: our star quarterback is back. Maybe we just mentally we
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: don't have to focus this hard. Potentially, also there's like
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: maybe a chemistry issue if you're kind of used to
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: having that guy not back anymore, and you have to
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: get used to him being back, so you tend to
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: get value fading that team when he comes back. But
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: the question is if Simmons only had like one throw
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: in that game last week, if he comes back this week,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: does that mean Old Miss has to get used to
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: him again. Does it just effectively become a reverse injured
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: player spot. This is very difficult to gauge, man. I
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: think you got to check to see if he's playing
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: or not. If Shambless is gonna play again, then I
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I still don't know if it counts,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: if that would make this an injured player spot or not.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: It's crazy to try to have to figure this out.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: I think it is a bad spot for All Miss though,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: because they did just beat Arkansas. They're coming up two
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: SEC wins in a row. Actually, they got revenge at Kentucky.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Kentucky actually gave Ole Miss their first loss last year
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: at Ole Miss, so I think Old Miss was focused
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: on trying to win that game. They did. They beat
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Arkansas last week. But Arkansas, I mean it's a pretty
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: big game because it's, you know, a decent team in
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: the SEC. But up next they got LSU. Man, I
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: mean that's gonna be a huge game against LSU, one
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: of their biggest games on the entire schedules. So this
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: is a non Conference game. It is a bigger game
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: for Tulane. So overall, I think if you want to
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: try to simplify the handicap, I do think you probably
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: gonna lead to Tulane slightly here. The money might be
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with it. It's hard to say Mississippi ole Miss
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: is down from twelve and a half to twelve sixty
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: percent and take it sixty three percent of the cash
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: on them, so hard to gauge if that slight cash
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: percentage difference matters or not. I mean, you gotta figure o.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be the public side here, even though
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Tulane is three and oh, everybody knows ole Miss ranked
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: team SEC team pretty much where. Everybody's gonna gravitate in
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: this game. Even though we know Jackson Dart's not there anymore,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: it's still you know, Lane Kiffin offense there and whatever.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: But I would slightly lean to Tulaane there. But that's
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: a difficult one. Nate gotta get prepared for this one
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: on CBS and Paramount Plus at three point thirty Michigan
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: number twenty one at Nebraska, Michigan two and one, Nebraska
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: three and oh, big big ten match up here, Man,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: this game This is not gonna be one of my players, obviously,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: because I'm skipping the games that are my plays, and
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: i'll give him out the end. I'm gonna give out
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: four plays. Michigan hasn't really impressed yet, man, so that's
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an issue here. We know Michigan,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: they're trying to get used to having a new quarterback. Here.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: They got Bryce Underwood, who I think it is a freshman,
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: but like a highly recruited freshman, so gotta kind of
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: figure that he's gonna be good at some point. And
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: he did pretty much lighted up last week against Central Michigan.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: But that's Central Michigan. I mean, Central Michigan sucks, but
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: it's better than what we saw from Michigan in the
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: first game. Like they should have probably blown out New Mexico,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: but it was Underwood's first game. You know, who really
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: knows why Michigan didn't really succeed in blowing New Mexico
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: out there. They probably should have done because New Mexico
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: I think they're kind of in like a turnover face,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: you're kind of rebuilding and whatever. And then Michigan, yeah
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: they lost at Oklahoma, but again with a freshman quarterback
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: that he really didn't do well in that game. Oklahoma's
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: defense really shut them down though, but Michigan's defense played
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: well in that game. Michigan does have a good defense.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Michigan didn't play too badly, but that was a difficult
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: spot having to go on the road to face an
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: SEC team that's pretty fucking solid this year. Then, yeah,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: they Michigan did have their best game last time out,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: just absolutely annihilating Central Michigan. Central Michigan's not good, but
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Central Michigan they do try to get up for a
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: game against Michigan, and Michigan just pounded Michigan. Good defense,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: but still we haven't really seen that much out of
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Michigan yet, and we're still dealing with another road game here.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be their big ten road opener here.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Underwood's still their quarterback, not totally used to this. I
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: don't know what happened with their ground game last week
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: against Central Michigan, though you'd figure with a huge lead
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: like that they'd just be running it a lot. I
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: don't know what happened there with Hanes not getting on
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: the on the board there as far as the high rusher,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: but maybe they just used like multiple different rushers. Who knows.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna dig that much into that, but might
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: be a difficult spot for a freshman quarterback to have
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: to go into another hostile environment like this. Didn't really
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: do well the first time. Oklahoma really shut him down.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Both these teams are good defensively, Michigan and Nebraska. They're
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: both better defensively than offensively. Nebraska hasn't really shown much
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: of anything yet either, though their best opponent was Cincinnati.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: They hung on for a win against Cincinnati. I told
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: you I like Cincinnati to cover that spread in the
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: first week, which they did, low scoring game, pretty defensive
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: battle there and then since then and that was a
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: neutral site game. Though since then, Nebraska, I mean, they
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: just absolutely drilled Akron sixty eight to nothing, and then
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: they put up fifty nine points against Houston Christian. Although
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: that's an FCS team, Akron, it's probably not very good
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: this year either. I think they're one of the worst
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: teams in the MAC. If I were to guess right now,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: they're not looking very good right now. So not a
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: whole lot we could take away from that. Nebraska looked
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: pretty good in those games, but Michigan's faced the more
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule just because they did have a road test
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: against Oklahoma, so Michigan is a little bit more battle tested.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Of course, Nebraska still has the pat and Mahomes want
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: to be in Dylan Ryola here. He's gonna be their
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: their quarterback again coming into this one, but he is
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: the more experienced quarterback in big games like this. This
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: is another difficult game to read. Man. I'm gonna guess
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: that the money is kind of coming in on Nebraska here.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: I believe it was last time. I look, Yeah, it is,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: so Michigan's favorites. The osbikers are telling you they do
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: think Michigan is still the better team as a favorite
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: on the road here, they're done from one and a
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: half to one. Uh public kind of on the Nebraska side.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Sixty eight percent of tickets but seventy five percent of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: the cash also on Nebraska. That's a big enough to
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: scrap and say, we do see the line moving that
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: way that I do think that doesn't mean the money
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: is coming in towards the Nebraska side. I mean, I
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: guess I'll give it. I'll slightly lean that way, but
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I don't really have much of a reason for it
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: other than the market read man, I mean I think
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: it's a defensive battle. I mean it's that plus I
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: guess you're getting the somewhat more experienced quarterback here, but
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Michigan is more battle tested, so I worry about it
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I was thinking this game as more
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: of an under game, man. I mean, the total is low,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: but it's up from forty four to forty seven now,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: so the money's come in on the over, sixty five
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, ninety three percent of
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: cash on the over, so the public isn't even on
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: the over as much as the money. I was kind
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: of thinking this would be more of an under game, though. Man,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: you got Bryce Underwood going on the road again, facing
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: a good defense again could be a little bit difficult
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: for him. Michigan plays solid defense, so they could probably.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: I think hold Nebraskas off its a check too. Again,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: when these teams have actually stepped up in class to
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: face like an actual good defense, the games have been
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: pretty low scoring, so I kind of think this is
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: an under game. That's probably the way I would lean
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: in this game. But I'm not really a huge college
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: football totals guy, though, I think that's probably preferable to
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the side. So mister cover, what's up man? Thanks for
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: checking out the show. We've got some Twitter Twitter views here,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Twitter action here. You have a parlay on Missouri and Miami.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: I assume money line. You said money line, your money lay,
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: money line, parlaying two favorites. I will talk about both
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: those games. You guys, nobody's gonna like what I have
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: to say about the Miami game because you probably know
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: what that means. I mean, you know how I do this.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: As far as the money line, I mean, that's a
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: little bit of a different story. But because I don't
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: if I don't love Miami to cover though, I don't
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: really love them on the money line, and you know me,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: I don't love I don't love parlays just in general.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Because the the odds makers, I mean, the books, they
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: want you to do parlays. That's why they push them
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: so much, because it looks very enticing to take. Oh,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: I get these, like these two favorites, and if they
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: both win, I get like like an underdog price base
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: or a cheaper price or whatever. It looks really tempting
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: to do that. But the odds makers, they know what
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: they're doing and they never give you good enough odds
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: and the results are independent of each other. So I
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: never recommend that I recommend just doing straight bets and
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: just I mean, that's the grind though. I understand that
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: when you're you know, especially if you're just doing this
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: for fun, you want to kind of do it where
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: you just want to put a little bit of money
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: up and try to win a lot and try to
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: get lucky, you know. So I understand that. And it's
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: fun too, So like, you know, do what you can
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: afford obviously, you know what I mean. If you want
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: to put fun money on parlays and whatever, like hell yeah,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: do it like hopefully you win, you know, and you're
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: in that case you just have to be okay with like, oh,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: I'm paying for the entertainment value of it, you know
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: what I mean. But uh, I've been doing this for
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: you know, eighteen years, and like if you want to
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: really like profit, like like long term, just really focus
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: on I gotta make money here, man. I think it's
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: just you gotta just do just straight bets, not gay bets.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Parley's are gay par gay is. No, you want to
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: just do like straight bets, and you just have to
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: overcome like the threshold of like fifty three fifty four percent.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of the name of the game there.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Missouri versus South Carolina. I have less of a feel
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: on that game, but I will talk about that too.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Carson Beck going to us, Steve Irwin the Gators yet, Well,
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It's at least stuff for him. He's
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: not He's not good at least for them. I guess
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: that means they're not going up against any rays, any
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: sting rays. Steve Irwin. Man, I still remember when he died.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: I was playing World of Warcraft in college at the time,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: and that's how I found out that he died. Everybody
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: started kind of like shit posting in like the World
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: of Warcraft chats. I'm like, what the like, what the file?
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Oh my god. Yeah, that was kind of a weird
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: way to find out about that. It was like the
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: precursor to Twitter. I think Twitter didn't quite exist yet
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: at that point. Facebook was really new back then, but
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: that was like the precurs at all in the news
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: coming out on Twitter. It came out on World of
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Warcraft first. Man. Yeah, that was wild. But again, you
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: guys are not gonna like what I have to say
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: about that floor in Miami game. You know me with
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: my contrarianism, NBC Peacock at three thirty. We do also
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: have Purdue and Notre Dame number twenty four. Notre Dame
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: because they're OZ and to Purdue is two and one. Yeah, well,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, come on, man, it's a Notre Dame. I mean,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: everybody's talking about own. Notre Dame is owing two. They
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: shouldn't even be ranked at all. Yeah, okay, I'm not
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: even a fan of Notre Dame. I don't think they're
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: as good as people think they are. Typically, Like last year,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: I thought they were a bit overrated. I was kind
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: of leaning against them once the playoffs started because they
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: faced a pretty easy schedule, they're not in a conference.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: But this is a situation where I think Notre Dame
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: right now is probably about as undervalued as you're ever
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: gonna get them because I think they're gonna win. I
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: said they're gonna win four the next five games, and
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: the only game that I think they're gonna lose is
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: the one at Arkansas. I will see if I'm right
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: about that. But Notre Dame, Yeah, they're zero and two,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: but I mean, come on, man, they lost by three
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: at Miami and they have a freshman quarterback who's playing
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: his first game on the road with a car or actually,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if he's a freshman.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: I think he was their backup last year or whatever,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: but he was going into a hostile environment his first
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: year as a starter. And then they lost by one
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: point to Texas A and M. I know that was
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: at home, but still Notre Dame's played basically the most
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule. And by the way, I forgot to mention
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M excuse the Texas Tech when we
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: talked about Texas Tech. They've played one of the easiest
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: schedules so far, just throwing that out there. As far
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: as liking Utah, Notre Dame, they've played one of the
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: most difficult schedules. I mean, they've played two ranked teams
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: that are definitely solid. There are two teams I called
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: out in my preview Culleturable Previews shows saying that I
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: thought they had decent shots to win their conferences this year,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: and I liked both of them decent shots to maybe
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs. But now the stock again, it's as
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: low as it's gonna get on Notre Dame here. Man.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: If you look at the power ratings guys, like you
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: have ones like the normies are saying one thing, right,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Like the normies are like listening to oh like these
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: you know these rankings guys are terrible, and they're basically
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: saying that Notre Dame at own two shouldn't even be
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: ranked anymore. And then you have the power ratings guys
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: saying Notre Dame is like still like one of the
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: top ten teams, man, And that's how they're gonna be lined.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: And that's those are the people that have them, that
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: have the money at stake, man, Dudes that do power ratings,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: those power ratings to get used for sports betting, and
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: like the books setting the lines, the books have huge
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: amounts of money on this. So the books no more,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: they have way more money at stake than the rankings makers. Man.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: So if you have a big discrepancy between what the
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: rankings makers are saying and what the odds makers are saying,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are more likely gonna be the they're
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the ones that you want to trust more. So Notre
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Dame is not that bad and they should probably win
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: this game fairly easily. The only thing that I would
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: have as far as like maybe hesitating here is that
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame is coming off a big win. I get it, it
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: could be a hangover spot, and that was a that
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: set up decently for them because they did come into
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that game off of a bye. I know, uh, they
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: lost the game, but it's a tough game regardless. Man,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Texas A and m they're a good team. I'm actually
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: shocked that game was that high scoring though the defense.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna be a defensive game. That's
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: crazy that it was so high scoring and it looks
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: like the game went into overtime with that score and
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: it didn't. I mean, you're looking at Mike Elko and
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Freehaman for Notre Dame here Elko for Texas A and
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: m That should have been a defensive game. Doesn't make
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: sense why it wasn't. Notre Dame did play better defense
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: against Miami, and we know Miami's offense is very capable,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: so I think this is a bit of an outlier
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Their defense is better than it looks so far.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Car is gonna get going a little bit more and
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have to shoulder the load. I mean Notre Dame.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: They run the football, they play solid defense. Yeah, their
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: defense probably not quite as good as it was last year.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think Notre Dame is gonna make a playoff
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: at this point, but I think they're still playing man like.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be in like a dream
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: crusher scenario yet, even though they lost two pretty significant
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: games here. But my issue with Notre Dame, even though
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: I think they're definitely under ranked right now, severely under ranked,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: my issue with them right now is they're coming off
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: a big game and they're playing an in state little brother,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: which is Purdue. Purdue hasn't been that good recently. You know, Purdue,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get up for a game against Notre Dame,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: that's the only thing. Obviously they will because they're a
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: little brother in the state of Indiana, so they're gonna
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: want to show up for this game. I believe Notre
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Dame absolutely destroyed them last year too, if I'm not mistaken,
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: was that last year? Maybe I'm wrong. I guess I'm mistaken.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: I guess I guess that didn't happen. Oh wait, no
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: it did. Yeah, sixty six to seven. What am I saying? Yeah? There.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: It is early in the season again, so it's kind
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: of revenge for Purdue as well. I mean, Purdue not
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: good last year. Notre Dame just totally embarrassed them at Purdue,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: no less, so this is a game that Purdue has circled.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: For sure. Purdue obviously nowhere near as good as Notre Dame.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: I don't care if produced two and one and Notre
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Dame is owing two. I mean, how could anybody look
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: at those rankings like I look at those records and
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: like think that those records matter when Purdue's wins are
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: against ball State and Southern Illinois, who's an FCS team.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Ball State pretty bad MAC team. And then Purdue actually
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: was fairly decent, to be honest, last week against USC.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: They only lost thirty three to seventeen. That's not that
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: bad a USC pretty solid team. So Purdue, I mean,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: possibly flying under the radar a little bit. Notre Dame though, obviously,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: I mean again, they face extremely difficult opponents so far.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: They're battle tested for sure. I just think the spot
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: isn't that great for Notre Dame. But I do think
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: they're being severely undervalued. Notre Dame is a massive favor obviously.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Wait wait a minute, they're owing too, and they're favored
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: by twenty four and a half points against a two
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: and one team. What Notre Dame is actually down for
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: twenty seven to twenty four and a half though, and
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: a public is still actually playing Notre Dame in this one,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: So there is all that Notre Dame hate out there.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame shouldn't be ranked with The public still thinks
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: of Produce sucks, and they're not really wrong. But seventy
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: four percent of taket is only sixty two percent of
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: the cash on Notre Dame. The money is coming in
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: against Notre Dame. So the lean here is still to
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: Purdue plus the points, just because I think it is
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: a huge game for them. It is revenge for last year.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I think that type of revenge does matter when it's
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: a team that just absolutely destroyed you on your home
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: field last year. Purdue always gonna get up for the
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: in state big brother situation, so I have to lean
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: to Purdue, even though I do think Notre Dame is
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: severely being underrated by the public right now in this
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: particular game, that isn't really the case, but obviously expect
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame to win the game, but I'm not sure
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I expect them to cover I kind I mean, I
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: would lean in the opposite direction as far as covering
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Temple at Georgia Tech. We'll talk about this. Just I
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: think Georgia Tech, I mean, they'ren't kind of a classic
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: letdown spot. It's not gonna be one that totally. It's
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: not gonna make my card here, but I kind of
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: considered it. Georgia Tech is up to eighteenth in the country,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: and they might be a little bit over ranked at
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: this point because everybody saw them beat Clemson last week. Man,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: I think it's like you gotta kind of dial it
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: back a little bit. Man. The rankings makers have over
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: they've overreacted again. Man, where now Clemson isn't even ranked
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: at Georgia Tech is ranked eighteen. But we just saw
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Clemson was favored on the road at Georgia Tech. I
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: know Georgia Tech won the game and Clemson was probably
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: favored by a little bit too much. But I'm not
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: ready to say that Georgia Tech is actually better than Clemson.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: I think it's close, but I don't think Georgia Tech
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: is actually the better team. But I said I leaned
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: to Georgia Tech last week. I gave that out as
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: a lean. They won outright, It was a big win
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: for them. Could be a letdown spot here, man, They're
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: staying at home. That was a huge win. One of
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: the biggest games of the season. They get to play
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: basically that and the Georgia game of their two biggest
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: games of the season pretty much. Man, So they got
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: that game out of the way or early. They won.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: They beat the team that was basically the favorite to
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: win the ACC coming into this thing. Huge win for
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: Georgia TACK. I think they could take a little bit
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: of a step back here, man. I know their next
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: opponent is Wake Forest. That's not really an opponent that
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: you necessarily are gonna be looking ahead to, but you
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: might when it's Temple. I mean, Temple is a lesser
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: conference school, and Wake is still an ACC team at
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: the very least. So this is an ACC sandwich at
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: the very least. It's a probably like a barbecue sandwich
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: is some kind between South Carolina and North Carolina. It's
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: a Carolina, yeah, barbecue pull pork sandwich. Still there. The
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tack is in there Georgia Tack. Yeah, they're good.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I like Haynes King. I told
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: you I thought Georgia Tech was gonna be in the
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: running to potentially win the ACC this year, and I
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: think they are. They got a solid quarterback. But Temple
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: they could score, man. I know they did it against
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: bad opponents U Mass and Howard. They put up a
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: lot of points. I know they got totally shut down
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: last week by Oklahoma. Oklahoma looks like they're a solid defense.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Temple they have a decent offense. I think at this
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: point that's my gauge on this situation, and this is
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big game for them. They did play
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: one road game already at you Mass. I know this
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: is a much more difficult road environment to go and
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: play at Georgia Tack. But I think Temple will be
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: up for this game. This is their last remaining like
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: big game against the ranked team, so it's their last
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: game to kind of try to impress before conference play starts.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: It is a second difficult game in a row, but
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Temple got kind of just embarrassed last week against Oklahoma,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: so they weren't in that game at all. Unfortunately for me,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: because that was my only loss on Saturday. But yeah,
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: it is two tough games in a row for Temple.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: But my read on this I would lean slightly to Temple,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: but the money is kind of disagreeing with it. Georgia
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Techs up from twenty four to twenty four and a half,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of tickets on them, sixty eight percent
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in Orgia tech Slight disagreement from
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: me on that one on where the cash is on
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: that one, but that one's certainly not gonna be one
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: I want to get involved in. We're in the seven
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: pm slate now we do South Carolina at Missouri. South
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Carolina ranked eleven last week and they plummeted completely out
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: of the rankings. I gave up Vandy as a play
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: on the show last week, and by the way, I
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: didn't even realize Sellers went down with a concussion like
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: halfway through that game for South Carolina. So South Carolina's
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: quarterback went out with a concussion. I still think Vandy
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: had that game completely in hand anyway, though I think
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Vandy would have won regardless. But South Carolina lost Sellers
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: in that game. But I don't think we have an
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: injured player spot here because I think he is gonna play.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: It looks like even though he was a concussion protocol,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: and that would be a huge, huge difference for South
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Carolina if he wasn't playing, because he's basically their entire
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: offense Man Sellers, I mean, he's a solid quarterback in
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: the backup quarterback that they have that they were using
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: as a wide receiver that they converted into a quarterback.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. They got a pretty iffy quarterback situation here,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: so there's a huge drop off from Sellers to the
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: backup I think based on what the line is in
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: this game, it looks like Sellers is gonna play. Is
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: it gonna be one hundred percent? I don't know. But
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: South Carolina they were not deserving of being ranked, you know,
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: in the they were not deserving of being ranked eleven,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: that's for sure. I told you how overrated they were.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Through the first two games. They had the same number
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: of non offensive touchdowns as offensive touchdowns, Like they were
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: scoring all these kick return touchdowns and defensive touchdowns. I mean,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: it's just insane. That's totally unsustainable. You can't do that.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: They actually got outgained by South Carolina State, which is
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: an FCS team. I know it's a little brother in
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: the state of South Carolina, but that is just putrid
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: that South Carolina got outgained by them, even though on
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the scoreboard you wouldn't know it because they scored so
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: many defensive and special team touchdowns, it didn't look like it.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: And then they didn't play well against Virginia Tech either.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: They got outgained by Tech, and I believe they got
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: outgained by Vandy, although again Sellers was out of the game.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: But South Carolina has yet to have the yardage advantage
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: in any game. Oh no, they did, my mistake. They did.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: They actually outgained my mistake. I apologize. That's insane and
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: I never would have thought that they did. Hey, they
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: finally did, and it was a game where Sellers didn't
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: even play for half of it. So yeah, man, football
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: is weird. But anyway, they do have to go on
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: the road to Missouri. Here. Sellers looks like he is
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: gonna play. This is their first road game in the season. Man,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: I just mentioned that that's a difficult spot to be
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: playing your first road game of the season at Missouri.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: Missouri is a solid team. I know they haven't played
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: as good of a schedule as South Carolina, though South
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: Carolina did play Virginia Tech and Vandy Missouri, their only
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: big conference opponent they played so far was Kansas in
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: the Border War. So South Carolina has already played an
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: SEC opponent last week, to Missouri has not played an
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: SEC opponent yet. They just crush Louisiana last week. Missouri
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: their quarterback this year is Yeah Pribula, who was the
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: backup for a Penn State last year. I'm not sure
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: how good he really is though. But Missouri, I mean,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: this is a game they're gonna show up for. It's
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: on ESPN, it's their first SEC game, it's between two
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: like much much lesser opponents, so you know they're gonna
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: show up for this game against South Carolina. If South
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Carolina does somehow manage to win this game, they will
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: probably be ranked again. But South Carolina, I don't think
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: they're even a top twenty five team. Man, Like the
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: power ratings guys have them somewhere around like thirtieth I
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: think in the country, So they were way overrated at
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: number eleven. Missouri ranked number twenty three. I mean, I
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: think they're probably not be like I think they're being
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: ranked probably somewhat appropriately, and it looks like Sellers must
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: be playing because Missouri was an eleven point favorite, and
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: I actually think the line went up to like even
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: maybe close to thirteen fourteen. But now it looks like
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: Sellers is playing to the line is all the way
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: down to nine and a half. Maybe it's ten, because
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: it's not with juice. If you do like South Carolina
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: that you gotta at least play the plus ten there,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: I would be very hesitant to do so, though seventy
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets sixty nine percent of the cash
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: on Missouri and Missouri is public. Everybody saw South Carolina
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: just looked so bad last week. But again, I'm not
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: sure how good South Carolina even is, so I worry
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: about it. Like, yes, the market read says the cash
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the South Carolina side, you gotta
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: worry about Seller's health, them being in a spot where
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: they're playing a first actual road game and Missouri coming
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: off you know, like just a much much easier game.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: But they didn't have to put in a whole lot
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: of an effort last week. So yeah, the market read
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: kind of does say, take the police of South Carolina,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: but I would hesitate with that. I might even slightly
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: lean against it. To be honest, that's a difficult game.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna skip Florida Miami as you know, I'm gonna
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: give out a play on that game. Oh boy, Illinois
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Indiana is one of the other big games of the week.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: It's ridiculous seeing Illinois being ranked ninth in Indiana being
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: ranked nineteen. I know it seems we're ranked at some
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: points last year, but this is just ridiculous. You don't
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: expect like a Big ten powerhouse matchup. You think of,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: you know, Ohio State, Michigan. You don't think in Penn State.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: You don't think Illinois and Indiana. I mean, that's just ridiculous.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: But they're both three and oh they're both ranked. They're
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: probably both overrated though, to be honest, I think they're
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: both over ranked, but I think Illinois is the more
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: severely over ranked team here. This is gonna be seven
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern NBC and Peacock because they carried the
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: Big ten games here. Illinois, they haven't really done anything
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: that really shows me anything yet, like they'd beat Western Illinois,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan. I mean, two pretty bad opponents Western Illinois
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: andn FCS team, and yeah, it looks like they blew
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: out Duke on the scoreboard. I told you I liked
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Duke in that game, but look at what happened in
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: that game. Man. Duke outgained them four point thirty eight
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: to four nineteen, and Duke was minus five in turnovers,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: so that's why they lost the game, and minus five
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Eternal was just insane. I mean, that was the tale
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: of the game pretty much in that game, so that
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: win was not as great as it looked for Illinois. Meanwhile,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: I know Indiana hasn't played anybody either. They beat Old
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Dominion in non impressive fashion to start out the season.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: They beat Kanansas State, who was really bad, although we
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: will talk about Kansas State in a bit, but they
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: blew them mouse after a very unimpressive showing in their
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: opener where they probably just didn't even show up against
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion. I think Indiana kind of got shocked back
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: into focus because I guess they're twenty three and a
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: half away Fairs. Old Dominion is not that bad though,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: I mean they're an FBS team, they're all right, but
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: Indiana didn't cover. I think they got shock back into focus.
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: They just wrecked Kannessau Knisa is not good at all.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Other pretty new FBS team. And then last week Indiana
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: even more ridiculously blew out Indiana State in state little
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: brother but an FCS team seventy three to nothing. I
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: don't think Indiana State is that good. Here we go
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: again one in the morning, and we got people revving
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: their engines out there. I'm about to flip out and
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: yell at them again. But Indiana. Yeah, neither of these
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: teams has really shown us a whole lot yet. I
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: know they're both three and zero. Neither team has shown
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: us a lot. Indiana does have an extra day to
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: prepare for this because they played on Friday in Illinois.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: I believe had a Saturday game last week, So Indiana
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: does have one extra day of rest. So I guess
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot of way to put into that,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: but it is something they had an extra day to
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: prepare for this. This is at Indiana, so they are
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: at home Indiana. I think at this point they're kind
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: of used to their new quarterback. Like last year, Indiana
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: just all of a sudden became really good. They brought
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: over I believe the coach from Ohio, and he brought
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: over Tanner Rourke, his quarterback from Ohio. So they brought
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: some of those guys over last year. Rourke I think graduated.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: But Indiana basically because they were so good last year,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: they basically just reloaded and in Their quarterback is Mendoza,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: who was Col's quarterback last year, and he's kind of
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: just off to the races. He's pretty good. But the
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: thing I like about Indiana's offense though, is it's balance.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Is you can see here they have different rushers that
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: do a lot on the rushing side, so they can
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: throw the ball, but they can also run the ball.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: That's what you want to see, a balance offense. You
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: don't want to see one dimensional offenses. So Indiana they're
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: balance attack man. Illinois, Yeah, they brought back a lot
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: of their players this year too. They have a lot
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: of attorney production. I'm not sure how good Altmeyer really
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: is as a quarterback, though I think Mendoza probably is
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: actually a little bit better. Yeah, Illinois had some decent
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: rushing games as well, but against the one FBN, we're
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: not FPS. So the one big conference opponent they faced Duke,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: who's not really that great of a defense. Illinois couldn't
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: really get anything going on the ground there in that game,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: even though they were ahead in the game, So you
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: think they would have been running the ball more so,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a red flag there, But
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: I think the main red flag in this game is
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: look at what the line is. You have number nine Illinois,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: number nineteen in Indiana, and yet Indiana is up from
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: a five point favorite to a six and a half
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: point favorite. It's almost seven, So like what gives? Right?
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: The public is gonna see that and say, how am
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: I getting a team that's ranked ten ranking spots higher
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: as a touchdown underdog. It looks basically so easy to
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: play Illinois here, man, So I would not do it.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Indiana in this game. And this again,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: it might hit a touchdown. So if you want to
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: play Indiana, you gotta make sure you lay below a touchdown, man.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: You gotta lay six and a half. The key number
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: seven obviously, because a lot of games, not a lot,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: but I'm decently high percentage of games relative to the
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: other potential outcomes. Land on the seven. It looks like
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Illinois is public sixty eight percent to take a sixty
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash as well. I we do
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: have a high total as well, fifty two and a half.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, both offenses can definitely do damage here. So
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna really disagree with an over in this game.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Seventy nine percent of tickets eighty three percent of the
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: cash on the over. But I think I like the
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Indiana side, and if we're getting a lot of scoring,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: that does help the cause of the favorite, because the
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: more there is, the less each individual point matters, and
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: the easier it is for favor to cover a big number.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I would lean Indiana this game. I know
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Illinois has Brett Beelima there, a former Wisconsin coach. He's
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: their coach. I know he's good on the road, He's
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: been a good road coach recently. But this is a
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: spot where I don't think so. I think Indiana they're
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: an anti public home favorite, man, And that is kind
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: of what you want to look for, because you're playing
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: on a team that you know is actually good and
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: they're being undervalued by the public impotentially by the market
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: as well, you know what I mean, and by the number.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of what you want to look for, man.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: I don't play enough of those games, and maybe I
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: should be playing Indiana then and go with my own
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: advice here, you know, because again, when you see a
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: public road underdog like that, you want to be fading
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: it for the most part, fading that team because you
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: know that means you're getting yeah again, like I said,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: a team that's favored like that against like another again
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: it's another good team. You know that that team that's
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: favored must be good because they're favored against another good
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: team and you're playing on a good team, you know
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: what I mean. So that's that Vandy is playing Georgia State.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: I'll just mention it because Vandy is up in the
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: rankings now. And remember they got into the rankings last
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: year and I was saying, oh, Vandy's gonna be in
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot now, and I think it didn't totally
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: happen in some of those cases. This is their FBS
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: home opener, though, so I wouldn't really want to fave
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: Vandy here, but they're coming up that very satisfying blowout
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: win against South Carolina. That was revenge because South Carolina
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: went into Vandy last year and blew out Vandy. So
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: very satisfying win for Vandy. Even though I know Sellers
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: went down in the game, but still big game for Vandy.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: So it could be a bit of a letdown spot
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: here playing Georgia State. They're probably not going to totally
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: focus against them. They don't have a big game up
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: next though, really, I mean Utah State. I don't think
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: that's really any cause for a look ahead there. So
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: it's just kind of a slight lean for me against
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Vandy and this one state. I mean, they haven't really
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: done anything yet. They did at least battle tests themselves
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: playing against Ole Miss and Memphis, but they got pretty
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: much blown out in both those games. So the good
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: thing about Georgia State is at least I got a
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: win last time out against Murray State. I know it's
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: an FCS team, but you want to get that first
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: win out of the way. Man, when you're losing, like
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: everything is just bad right when you're losing, like you
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: have that monkey on your back, like we have to
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: get our first win. But Georgia State was able to
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: do that. I know it wasn't against FBS opponent, but
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: still that'll help you get that monkey off your back.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: You finally got a win. But again, yeah, I think
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: one of the main reasons that I would hesitate to
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: fade Vandy here is just that it is their FBS
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: home opener. But the money is agreeing with me and
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: coming in on Georgia State, and the line is actually
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: up from twenty six and a half to twenty eight
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: and a half. I know I didn't do that well
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: with some of these leans on these bigger underdogs last week,
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: but of course they were all ones that I didn't
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: actually play either, because I'm just talking about, you know,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: some opinions on these seventy three percent of tickets on
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: vander of the cash coming in on Georgia State, So
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: the money's coming into Georgia State in that one, I
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: agree with that. And then some of these games are
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: just total mismatches. I don't even want to talk about
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: some of these. And then we do have the late
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: night game, this is ridiculous, at eleven PM on Fox.
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: At eleven pm, Eastern Michigan State, who's three and oh,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: they have to go out to face number twenty five
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: ranked USC who's also three and oh. Tends to be
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: somewhat of a difficult spotman. When you have a team
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: that's one of the more eastern teams in the country.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: They have to go play this late night game out west.
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: Eleven PM is gonna be like at the time that
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: the game ends. I mean, that's gonna be difficult for
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Michigan State, right, Like it's gonna end at uh, like
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: one or two in the morning, basically East Coast time,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: So it's gonna be like one in the morning Michigan
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: State's time basically. So it is a difficult spot. And
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: talk about how it fucks with your biological clock most
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: when you're an Eastern team going out west to play
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: a late night Pacific Coast game, I think that that's
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: actually the worst biological clock spot. And then it's not
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: a Western team going east to play an early game.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: I think this is worse because when you're playing an
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: early game, you know you're doing it, and you get
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: up and your energized and you're ready to go. The
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: late night game is where the fatigue starts setting in.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: You know, Michigan State, they haven't played a difficult schedule
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: at all. Yet they beat Western Michigan, they barely beat
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: Boston College. They beat Youngstown State, who's an FCS team,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: and didn't even beat them that impressively. And now they're
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: playing their first road game and it's going out to
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: USC where they're still not used to playing, even though
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: I know USC is in the Big Ten now, but
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: it's a difficult spot for Michigan State. Man USC. Obviously
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: they're the better team because they're a bigger favorite. They
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: haven't faced that difficult of a schedule yet. But they
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: smoked Missouri State. We saw Missouri State hanging in that
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: game against SMU, so that makes that win look pretty
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: impressive really for USC against Missouri State, or that was
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: Missouri State. I think their first game as an FBS
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: tam so maybe they were not ready for it, I
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: don't know. And then USC drilled Georgia Southern, who we
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: don't know how good they are. I think they've been
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit like I thought Georgia Southern was
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be in a good spot in one of their games,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: and it did not turn out that way at all,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how good they really even are.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: Then USC is one game where they didn't look that
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: good was last week at Purdue, which was their first
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: road game. I think USC just maybe they still weren't
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: even paying attention. That first road game was a little
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: bit difficult. So they didn't look that good last week
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: at Purduce, so I think that means they're going to
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: be more focused here. They didn't cover the spread. They
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: were twenty and a half point favorite, didn't cover, and
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: sometimes then that happens, especially if it's a closer game
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: and it's a scare, the teams will tend to do better.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: It wasn't really a scare though in that game. It
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: was pretty much in hand for USC, but still playing
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: a game that just wasn't that good. Sometimes you'll refocus
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: in the next one. So I'm gonna slightly lead to
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: USC because they do think they are the better team here,
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: but the money is kind of disagreeing with it. At
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: this point. They're off for fifteen and a half to nineteen,
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of tickets, only seventy seven percent of
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I kind of worry about that though.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: So initially the line did move. It moved through the
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: key number of seventeen, So it looks like maybe they're
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: just conflicting opinions on this one, because I don't think
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: it was a setup when it went through seventeen and
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: all the way to nineteen. I mean, maybe there were
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: some guys chasing like chasing basically some I'm gonna try
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: to explain this year now. So when it's what I
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: mean by setup is that professionals, as soon as the
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: line comes out, the books are accepting only lower limit
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: bets at that time, so you can't bet as much.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: But the professionals know that they garner respect by the books,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: so they know that they can bet, and the books
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: will probably move the line a little bit thinking that
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: it's a real move because they don't know if it's
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: a real move or not, and the betters know that too.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: More engine revving out there. Man, these people they should
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: be in jail, man, I'm telling you right now. It's
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: so ridiculous. It's residential. It's one am like, seriously, stop,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. But anyway, the setup means
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: that it's not the real move, like they do it
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: just to move the line to get a little bit
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: more value, and then when the limits get raised, then
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: they come in with their actual bet at the limit,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: the bigger limit, and come in on the other side.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: But in this case, I don't think that's the case,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: because I think they would have tried to just push
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: it to seventeen and then immediately hammered it back down
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: and you wouldn't see the number anymore. This went through
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: that number all the way up to nineteen. So I
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: think what happened is it was a real move on USC.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: And now that it's hit nineteen or gone through the
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: seventeen and half at least, I think maybe some other
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: professionals see like they might think there's some value on
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Michigan State. So I think there are conflicting opinions on
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: this game. That's the way that I read that market.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: If I'm reading that correctly, seventy nine percent of tickets
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: only seventy seven percent of the cash on USC. Again,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: obviously it's not gonna be a game I'm gonna recommend
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: a play on. Let's go through some of these other
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: games real quick, and then I'll do my If you
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: guys want me to talk about any of these other
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: games that I have not talked about, I will. I
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: try to hit like some of the games that are
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: just more interesting, and then go to my best bets.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: Maryland Wisconsin. I mean, that's one of the earliest slag games.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: It is a big ten game on NBC and Peacock
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin coming off a game against Alabama where they got
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: their first loss. I mean it was a road game
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: against Alabama, so what do you expect. Wisconsin is still
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: not really that good, but I think they're maybe improving
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit, and they're trying to do what they
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: used to be doing, which is played physically, run the football,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: play physical defense, because they got away from that and
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: one of the they had a coach come in and
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: try to implement like an air raid attack, which makes
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: no sense with Wisconsin. So I think they're trying to
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: get back to their roots. They are coming up that
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: difficult game against Alabama, and if that game was close,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: I would probably be recommending to play against Wisconsin here
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: because they do have a huge game against Michigan me
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: up next a little. I think it's actually after a bye.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's in two weeks, yes, so they have
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: a bye next week. So if they're playing Michigan, especially
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: next week, and this Alabama game was closer, it would
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: be a sandwich for Wisconsin. They'd be coming off playing
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: a huge effort game. They'd have a huge game up next,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: maybe wouldn't focus on Maryland. Maybe that'll still be the case,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: but again, because they got blown out by Alabama and
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: the Michigan game isn't for two weeks. I'm dialing it
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: back a little bit as far as, uh wanting to
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: fade Wisconsin in this one. And Maryland, I mean, they're
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: not really good. They haven't shown anything yet. It was
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin's two and one, Maryland's three and oh. But Wisconsin
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: is actually the better team, So the line might look
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading with Wisconsin being a somewhat large
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: favorite here even though Maryland is the three and oh team.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: Forget what else I was gonna say here? What else
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: was I gonna say? But Wisconsin and Meryl, Wisconsin? Man,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: I wish I lost my train of thought. I wish
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: I remember what it was I Wisconsin. I mean, they
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: had won their first two games before that. What the
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: fuck was I gonna say? Now? It's really really gonna
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: bug me? Man. Oh, yes, this is other Big Ten
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: conference home opener at least so, and actually it's their
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: conference opener in general. So this is the first Big
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: Ten game of the schedule for Wisconsin. So I think
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: that might have you dial it back a little bit
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: as far as fading Wisconsin as well, because the crowd's
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be there it's their first home Big ten game,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: their first Big ten game. It is the first Big
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: ten game for both teams. But I think it means
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: both teams are going to show up focus. Maryland hasn't
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: really shown us anything yet. I mean, they beat FAU
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Northern Illinois, which I think I was. I think I
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: was on Northern Illinois in that game, if I remember correctly.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: I forget what my reason was on that. I think
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: that was one of my plays. I think they covered
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: for us. And then Maryland beat in state Little brother
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: tousand last week. Although they're an FCS team, it does
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: mean they had an easy game, so Wisconsin had a
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: much more difficult game last week. So Maryland might come
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: into this game a little bit more fresh and rested.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: But again, it is a game where I think both
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: teams are going to show up and Maryland misleading three
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: and oh because they haven't played anybody good yet, and
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: this is their first road game, so some hesitation there too,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: you know, first road game. I don't usually want to
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: play on a team that's in their first road game,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: so that makes it more difficult as well, a lot
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: of factors to consider here, man Maryland having to go
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: to Wisconsin. Where Maryland, you know, on the east coast,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a difficult trip to have
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: to go to Wisconsin. I don't even know how many
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: times they've done that since they've joined the Big Big Ten.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: It's not too many. Wisconsin. This is another one where
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I actually think that there might be conflicting opinions on
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: this game, because I've actually heard some I've heard conflicting
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: opinions amongst some of the professionals that I listened to
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: as well. Wisconsin went up from a seven point favorite
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: all the way to ten. That's pretty key. That's I
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: moved through the seven and a half and it kept going.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: But now at the ten, they have fifty five percent
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: of tickets, only fifty percent of the cash on Wisconsins.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: It looks like once they did the ten, money started
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: coming back in on Maryland. This is a This is
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: a very very difficult read for me. Man. My initial
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: lean in this it was actually to the Wisconsin side.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: In this one. I might want to just stick with it,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: kind of like stick with your gut instick. It seems
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: like I don't do that enough, so that might be
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: the way that I would look in this. In this
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: one potentially here, So yeah, I mean maybe slightly. It
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: would be against the market read at the ten though,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: and if you want to Wisconsin, you probably had to
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: lay like a better number than that'll the seven. It
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: looks like it was never really a seven and minus
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: one ten. It looks like the best you probably could
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: have done a seven and a half. Anyway, if you
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: see like a nine and a half, I mean, maybe
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: you could consider maybe taking that shot there slightly for
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: me to Wisconsin though, so against the market read in
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: that one. I'm just gonna mention Virginia Tech fired their
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: coach and so did UCLA. So I talk about the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: fire coach theory as well, where when a team fires
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: their coach because they're not doing well and whatever, it
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: could spark the team and you want to look to
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: potentially play on that team in the first game where
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: they have a new coach, especially if it's a coach
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: that they respect more, because like a couple of different
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: things could happen, right, Like the team could get up
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: to play for that new coach because maybe they just
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: didn't like the other coach and they want to play
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: hard for this new coach. Usually when it's in the
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: middle of the season like this, you're gonna see some
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: guy who's already in the organization get elevated to the
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: coach head coach role. So at least it's a coach
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: that already knows the system too, the players know him,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: maybe they like him, and they're more ready to get
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: pumped up and play for that coach. But also the
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: other thing is the players want to prove that the
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: reason why the team was losing was the coach and
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: not them, So I know it's selfish, but the players
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: also kind of have that in mind, like we want
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: to prove that it's not us that were bad, it
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: was the coach. So it sparks a team. But unfortunately,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: Virginia texts playing an FCS team this week in Wafford,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: So it's not a game that I even want to
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: really do anything on it. I don't even think UCLA
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: is playing this week. I don't know, said, I don't
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: think I saw them on the schedule at all. Right,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: I think they might have a bye this week, so
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: you seela keep that in mind, though, I guess for
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: next week. If they don't play this week, it'll be
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: their first game with their new head coach. Next week
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: and I don't know who they're playing, so it might
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: be a spot to look at. But I just figured
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: I would briefly mention that these are gonna be long
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: ass videos again because they always are with me SMU TCU.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: This is a big Texas battle here. TCU had a
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: bye last week, so something to keep in mind. But
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: they're kind of conflicting ways to look at that or no,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: they didn't. They had to buy between weeks one and two.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: One in three weeks because they had a buy in
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: week to of my mistake because I was gonna say, well,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about it because one of my plays actually
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: involves the buys and how those set up. So I'll
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: talk about it when I do that. But TCU they're
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: two and zero. They beat Ablin Christian last week was
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: an FCS team. They're not a bad FCS team, I
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: don't think, but TCU maybe not that great that they
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: give up twenty one points. Though this TCU team, I
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: don't think they have a very good defense, so of
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: course we did see them stomp North Carolina in the
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: first week. TCU. I think they have a pretty potent offense,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: but their defense isn't very good, and I think that
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: you could say the same for SMU really, and that's
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: who they're playing here. This is at tc you SMU.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: They've played three games already this season. They played that
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: game against Missouri State last week. Remember I gave out
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: Missouri State on the show. They covered the spread for US,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: SMU only put up twenty eight points. I think it
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: was a game where they really didn't show up for it.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: It was a first road game for them, very unfamiliar venue,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Missouri State because they're a new FBS team, So SMU
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: it was a good spot to play against them. They'd
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: played a two overtime game against Baylor and came and
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: fell short, blowing a lead in that game, I think
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: the week prior to that, and they had this big
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: TCU game up next. So in a way, SMU, they're
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: coming off a pretty ugly performance. You could say they're
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: going to bounce back here. It is a second straight
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: road game, but at least this is a somewhat more
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: familiar venue for them, going to face TCU here. So
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: I have some kind of conflicting reads on this game too. Man.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: I've heard some professional opinions on the SMU sign, and
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: I guess I will agree with that because they are
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: coming off just an ugly game last week and they're
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: more battle tested, right Like they played Baylor TCU. The
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: best team they played was North Carolina. I know it's
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick, but how good is North Carolina? Really? I
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: don't think they're that good. Again, this is also a
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: really high total. Like I said, two good offenses, ninety
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets, only sixty five percent of cash
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: on the over. Though with the total it's sixty three
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: and a half, it's gone up, so it looks like
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: maybe there's some buyback coming in towards the under. Now,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, it seems too dangerous to play the unders
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: to me, but that high total. Usually when it's high,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: you're doing to look to the over. But and I
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: did just did say that both these offenses can score
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: and defenses are not very good. But yeah, I mean
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: I probably would not want to really do that, and
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: maybe I would have a slight lean to the over still,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean, obviously it's not gonna be a
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: game I'm gonna play, and then I would lean to
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: SMU plus the points as well. A TCU up from
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: six and a half to seven, fifty seven percent of
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: tickets only fifty percent of cash, and there's the market
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: read is saying take the points. With SMU plus seven,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: SMU probably can kind of slow down what TCU wants
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: to do offense. SMU runs the football more so they
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: can kind of try to shorten the game. Which maybe
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why there's some money coming
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: in on the under, because I think it would be
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: beneficial for SMU if the game is actually a little
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: bit lower scoring. So yeah, they're kind of correlated to
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: the under, even though I kind of like SMU and
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: kind of like the over just as independent different bets there.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so yeah, slightly into SMU in that one
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: because they're coming off just the uglier of the two
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: results there. North Texas at an Army is kind of
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: an interesting one. This is gonna be in the Americans
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: the conference opener, I believe for both teams. Yeah, it
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: is on North Texas. I should have given it out
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: as a play last week. Man, they just destroyed Washington State.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: I told you I liked North Texas and that one.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: Washington State I thought was in a bit of a sandwich.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: Having to face Washington this week and having pummeled San
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: Diego State in the previous week, and though San Diego
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: State's not that good anymore, it was also a weird
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: venue for Washington State to have to go to. This
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: North Texas team in North Texas was coming off almost
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: losing as a big favorite at Western Michigan. So North
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: Texas was coming off a game that probably shocked them
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: back into focus a little bit of a scare. This
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: North Texas team has a really good offense. They've been
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: putting up a lot of it and their offense is
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: definitely actually good. With mess to Maker as their quarterback,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: He's making messes of his opponents. He's pretty good Man's
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: This is a good offense. They should be able to
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: score against this Army team. But Army, I mean they
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: might throw some wrenches into this. An Army is coming
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: out of a bye, I believe. Let me see that.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at North Texas again. My mistake. I think
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: Army is coming out of a bye because last we
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: saw them they did pull off a big upset though
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: against Kansas State. So I'll talk about how the buys
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: work right now. Army yes to coming off of buy
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: So yes, they do have two weeks to prepare for this.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: I do think they will show up because this is
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: their conference opener, it's at home. This North Texas team
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: is going to compete, I think to win this conference
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: this year. So Army will show up for those reasons.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: But Army, they did go into the buy on a
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: good note. And I talk about this, when teams go
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: into the buy on a hot note, on a good note,
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: sometimes they don't use that buy appropriately because it's like, well,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: you went into that buy in a good note, so
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: what do you have to change? Right? You don't have
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: anything to change because things are working, and it's even
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: worse when you're on a win streak, and that buy
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: can kind of disrupt the win streak. Whereas if you're
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: a team and you're losing, then I think the buye
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: helps you because you actually use that buy to fix
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: things and figure it out. So that's the way buys
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: work in football, man, It's the way straits work as well. No,
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: so yeah, Army did go into the buy off of
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: that big upset win at Kansas State. But Kansas State
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: is just really looking like a lost team right now.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with them. It's still
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: a big win though, so they did go into the
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: buy on a high note. But in this case, I
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: hesitate to want to actually fade Army because I think
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: this is still a big game for them and I
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: think they would use that to be focused. Army runs
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: a triple option, remember, so it's kind of difficult to
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: prepare for that, and North Texas does not have an
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: extra week to try to prepare for it. North Texas
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: does face these teams every year, though in this conference
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: they face Army and or Navy. Sometimes think they face
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: both of them. So North Texas is not an opponent
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: that's totally unfamiliar to defending the triple option though, so
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: it's an interesting one. Man. I think the money is
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: actually coming in on the Army side in this one.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: I probably do lean that way. It looks like North
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: Texas flip from two and a half to two and
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: a half Underdodger two and a half point favorite here,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of tickets, only fifty five percent of
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: the cash on North Texas. They're a public road favorite here.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: You can get some points with the Army. The total
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: actually dropped, and I think if it's gonna be a
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: lower scoring game, it's gonna benefit Army, because Army the
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: way that they're gonna be able to hang in this
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: game is by keeping North Texas offense off the field.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: That's what Army has to do, and they do have
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: an offense to do it. It's a triple option. The
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: only issue is if they fall behind by multiple scores,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: then it becomes bad for Army because they don't really
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: have an offense that can catch up. So that's kind
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: of the problem. So Army. If you like Army here,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: you need them to slow the game down and just
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: stay within like one score pretty much hang around in
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: the game. The total did drop from fifty four to
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: fifty and a half though, with eighty percent of tickets
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: only sixty percent of the cash in the over so
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: that does help the Army cause thinking this might be
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a low scoring game. North Texas
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: they just looked too good last week. Man, the public's
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: gonna see those high point totals and think, oh my god,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: and like you're only laying two and a half, Like,
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: how could you not do that? Right? With North Texas
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: being what three and oh I think right and Army
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: being one and one in North Texas putting up so
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: many points it looks so easy to lay the minus
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: two and a half, right, So I think I would
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: slightly lean to Army in that game. All right, what
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: else do we want to talk about here? As far
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: as these games? I talked about a lot of these
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: games already, North Carolina at UCF. I heard some professional
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: opinions on the North Carolina side, and I disagree with that.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. I'm still not impressed with what we've seen
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: so far. I mean, their wins so far after they
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: just got embarrassed on national TV by TCU. They beat Charlotte,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: who doesn't look good. Man. Charlotte, I think lost again
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: last night right to Rice. Did they? I mean, they
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: just don't. I don't know why the professional betters keep
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: betting on Charlotte, man, because they're just losing every game
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: in the North Carolina beat Richmond and an FCS team
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: last week. Not impressed, man. And now this is gonna
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: be a road game. Yes, they did play on the
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: road against Charlotte, but going on the road at UCF,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna be that easy, I don't think. And
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: this North Carolina defense there's still not a good defense.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: I know. They held Charlotte to three and which Richmond
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: to six. But those are not very prolific offenses. Last
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: time we saw a decent offense, TCU lit them up.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: I do think UCF is a better offense than what
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: they looked like in their first game against Jacksonville State.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that was. UCF does have Scott frostbacks,
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: and maybe they're trying to adjust to the new coach there.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: But they put up a shit ton of offense last week,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: sixty eight points against NCA and T I know that's
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: an FCS team. They tend to usually be in the
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: Celebration Bowl. For what it's worth, UCF, this is gonna
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: be one of their bigger games of the season, though, man,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: I mean they're playing North Carolina. I mean well, I
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: mean they play some big games of the Big Twelve
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: though I guess so maybe I shouldn't say that. But
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: they're playing against Bill Belichick, so I think they're gonna
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: get up for this game, man. UCF. Also, they are
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: coming out of a buye. I know, I said, when
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: you go into a buy on a win streak that
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: is actually bad, it can kind of hang you over.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: But I do think they're gonna use it to prepare
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: something for North Carolina, man, So in that case, I'm
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: not sure that the buy is really that much of
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: a distraction or that much of a negative for them
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: coming into this one of the yes, North Carolina is
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: just playing through, so they do have that advantage. But
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna slightly lean to UCF in this one despite
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: going to the buy on a good noterth Carolina looks
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: like a public underdog here, man, because the public basically
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: they just saw Central Florida barely covers like or barely win.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a twenty something point favorite against Jacksonville State.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: Nobody's impressed by what Central Florida has done so far,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: not even that sixty whatever point performance. And it might
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: be the Bill Belichick factory. But North Carolina is one
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: of those road public underdogs here, which is really not
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: what you want to look for, and we have a
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: reverse line movement against it. Central Florida is up from
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: five to seven and a half. So if you like
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: uc if you probably gotta lay, I would lay seven
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: or less probably if you want it was Central Florida,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: I would not want to lay the hook with a
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: seven happ But it looks like there're probably are sevens
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: out there. You could probably find one eventually before the
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: game kicks off, because North Carolina's gonna get the public
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: action most likely. Oh my god, Bill Belichick is an underdog.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick, He's so good as an underdog right well?
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: Oh is he? I mean, how good is he with
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: North Carolina? We don't even know yet. He played one
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: game as an underdog so far. He was an underdog
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: against TCU and how did that work out? He was
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: a favorite in the other two games, So I don't know.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: Six and nuve percent of tickets, only sixty eight percent
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: of the count. We have more revving engines outside right now.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: North Carolina is very public with of the line moving
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: against them. So yeah, I like UCF and that one.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: I just think it's hilarious by the way, that Yukon
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: is a twenty one point favorite over ball State. Yukon
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: played two overtime games in a row, but in the
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: first one of them and they were both on the road.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: The first one of them they lost as an underdog
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: where they had the game in hand, they almost upset Syracuse.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: So I mentioned I liked Delaware last week even though
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: the line had dropped, So I thought there wasn't really
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: that much value on Delaware anymore. I thought that it
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: was good at the ten, but it had dropped to
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: like eight Delaware just one out right, so it didn't
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: even matter. But that was then a bad game for
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: Yukon because Ucon was the favorite in that one. So yes,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: they played two overtime games in a row, but getting embarrassed,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: you know, they were in a bad spot. So as
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: I said, they were coming off that other overtime game
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: where they Loui lead as a favorite, then they got
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: embarrassed as a favorite themselves. So I think that means
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: it's a more focused spot for Yukon now coming off
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: of a game like that. And ball State is just bad.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: They beat UNH last week to get that monkey off
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: their back after losing. Yeah, they played big conference teams,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: per doing Auburn on the road. I mean that's not easy. Obviously,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: they barely beat UNH. Ball State was only a couple
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: point favorite, and that when UNH is an FCS team
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire although they're not a bad FCS team, but
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: ball State still not a good FBS team at all. Man,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: it's just ridiculous to see. Let me see where are they.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: It's just ridiculous to see ball State. Why can't I
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: find ball here? There they are. It's just ridiculous to
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: see them as a twenty one point underdogar or see
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: Connecticut as a twenty one point favorite, I mean against
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: any other FBS team, And that's ridiculous. Yukon a twenty
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: one point favorite, eight and nine percent of tickets on them,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: the fifty six percent of the cash coming back on
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: ball State, So hilariously, the money's coming in a ball State.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: Maybe it is because you come played two straight overtime games.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know though, coming off being upset like that,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: I do think you tend to refocus though, So that's
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: an interesting one. A JMU at Liberty would be a
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: big game, which I think is a conference game, right
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: is it is JAMU and this conference nown't. No, they're
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: in different conference. I don't even know, man, I think
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: they're in different conferences. I think it would be a
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: big game anyway, though, because this is a game between
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: two Virginia teams, so it's an in state rivalry to
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: some extent. I don't think it's an official rivalry. Jam
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: you new to FBS anyway, so it's not one of
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: these long standing rivalries. I think JMU actually considers themselves
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: to be the little brother. It's a Liberty because Liberty
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: has been an FBS longer. Liberty has really not played
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: well so far. They've lost two games in a row
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: as a road favorite. They're looking like they're in disarray
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: right now. Man, I don't know what to tell you
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: about Liberty losing on the road to Jacksonville State and
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: Bowling Green. They have an experienced quarterback with Vasco. I
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: just don't know what's going on with Liberty here and
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: Dickens as they're running back. Man, maybe he should stick
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: to writing overrated novels or something. I don't know, JMU.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: They're a good team though, and people might not realize
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: it because they don't have really anything as far as
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: their schedule is concerned. Yet they beat Weber State and
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: then they lost at Louisville, But we know Louisville's good,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: so it's like, what can you take away from that?
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: Not much. JMU is a team that went into the buy.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: They had a bye last week and they went in
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: on a loss, so I think they are focused for
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: this game against Liberty, using the buy to help that
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: it is Liberty's home opener, though for FBS they did
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: play one home game against an FCS team Maine, So yeah,
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, still somewhat of a big game for Liberty
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: as well, JMU coming out of the by though, jam
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: you down from ten and a half to eight and
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: a half. It was a road favorite, sixty percent of
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: tickets on them, sixty three percent of the cash coming
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: in on Liberty, So the money's coming in on Liberty
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: fading JMU. It's an interesting one, man. I think both
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: teams actually kind of a reason to show up here,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: and Liberty after losing two straight games, is a favorite,
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: probably happy to be back home, should be refocused. JMU
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: should have used that buy to refocus as well. So
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's a positive spot for both teams. So
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: difficulty handicapped there. What else we're going to talk about here?
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to run through these. You wanted NC State
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: and Duke, which one of you guys said you're on
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: NC State, Nate, I believe you said that big in
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: North Carolina rivalry game here between these two teams. This
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: is at Duke in Durham Duke. They're one and two
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: and their only win was against Elon, an FCS team,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: and they actually it was a lot closer than the
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: final score looks they They did not do well in
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: that game. I think it was tied at a halftime
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: or something, because one of you guys pointed out when
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: I talked about it. Duke, though, as I pointed out,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: they played better against Illinois than it looks like. They
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: were minus five in turnover. So that was just kind
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: of a ridiculous result there against Illinois. And then last
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: week they didn't play particularly well against Tulane, and that
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: was mensa should have been his big game to go
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: play well against Tulane. I don't think he actually played
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: poorly in the game. I think he put up a
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: lot of yards. He did have three touchdowns, but they
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: lost the game to Tulane. Nonetheless, here man Duke did
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: outgain them those this game. Maybe slightly misleading that they
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: lost that game. It was a close game though statistically
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: and on the scoreboard. So yeah, Duke, probably not as
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: bad as the record looks. At the very least they've faced.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: You know, they've had a couple of difficult games in there,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: and you know that Illinois game definitely misleading result. N
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: C State they played a less difficult schedule so far.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: They played East Carolina. That was a game I lost
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: in week one or was it week zero or week
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: one I forgot, I don't remember, man, but yeah, they
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: lost or they didn't lose, but they didn't cover that
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: game against East Carolina. They looked like they were on
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: their way to covering that and then they didn't score again.
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: So not great. But NC State is three and oh.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: It's kind of misleading though, Like I said that NC
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: State is three and oh, and Duke is one and two.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: But Duke has faced the more difficult schedule. NC State
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: beat Virginia. Virginia I think is in kind of a
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: rebuild and wake Forest is not good either. I know
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: those are both acc opponents, but it wasn't that good. Yes,
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: NC State has a little bit of extra time to
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: prepare for this. They last played last Thursday, on that
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game where they actually got a scare to remember,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: I said I leaned to wake Forest in that game,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: and wake Forest was winning by double digits in that game,
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: and then they never scored again and NC State came
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: out of there with a win. That's a bit ridiculous. Yeah,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, how do we even handicap this game. It's
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: it's pretty difficult to figure this game out. The money
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: seems to be coming in on the NC State side
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit, so there you go, Nate. The market
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: seems to at least agree with that. Duke's just sitting
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: in a three point favorite, fifty four percent tickets, fifty
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash, So it looks like the
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: public is slightly on Duke with less of the cash
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: coming into the which maybe it's the name recognition and
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: knowing the Duke has kind of been the midter of
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: these two teams recently. I mean, I don't really see
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: why the public would come in laying a favorite that's
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: one and two against a three and zero team, though
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: to me, it seems like NC State would be kind
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: of a misleading public side, but it looks like they aren't.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: So I mean my reread on that is that I
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: would almost like say, I would actually slightly need a
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: Duke personally, but I'm kind of disagreeing with the market there.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: So I just think Duke is a little bit more
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: of the battle tested team right now, and they look
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse than they actually are. So I
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: think the records are a little bit misleading right now,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the way that I look at it.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: Although NC State maybe taking a step forward with CJ.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: Bailey there because he's got some years under his belt.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: Now again we will see NC State does have the
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: extra rest, but again, I don't know how helpful that
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: is when they played well in that game. Although actually
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: maybe they didn't play well right because it was against
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest. But I was gonna say, when you go
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: into that extra time off though, that almost kind of
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: functions like a bye that extra time off you've already
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: won all your games, So again, it could be a
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: little bit of moment of a momentum stopper having that
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: extra time off, So maybe that's not necessarily the greatest thing,
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: although you know they're focused on this duke game regardless,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: though I don't know if it's a revenge spot. These
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: teams I assume probably play every year. I'll let me
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: see you. I'm looking at a two scheduleman looking at
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: dukes did be an NC State on the road last year,
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: so it is a road revenge spot for NC State
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: at the very least, So in a game like this
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: that is a little bit of a factor. NC State
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: probably remembers they lost at home to Duke last year,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: so maybe they will come and show up with some
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: focus in that one. West Virginia at Kansas. I think
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for West Virginia. They just
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: beat Pitt. They bounce back from that loss on the
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: road against a MAC team Ohio, though Ohio is a
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: bit of a better MAC team. West Virginia then pulled
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: off the upset against Pitt late in this game, you know, overtime.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: This is a big win man. In the backyard brawl.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: The backyard brawl had been gone for a while, and
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's actually I thought it had only been
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: back for two years. It's actually been back for four years,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: and it's about to be gone again for the next
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: few years. So West Virginia one the last of these
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: backyard brawls in a while, and they actually evened the score.
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: In the last four of these, each team now has
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: won two of them. It was a big win for
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Man as an underdog. They scored late to
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: tie the game. They tied the game right at the
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: very end to send it into overtime. One dramatically big
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: big win there for West Virginia. Now they have to
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: go on the road to face Kansas. It's a pretty
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar environment for them, and they have a big game
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: against utahp next. I know this is a It is
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: their big twelve opener though, so I'm not gonna quite
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: want to fade them here, but it looks like somewhat
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: of a difficult spot for West Virginia here man and
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: Utah is at least a ranked team as well. They
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: should still be focused to start conference here. This game
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: is on FS one, by the way, if you want
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: to watch it. Kansas might have a little bit of
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: another extra edge they'll be because they are actually coming
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: out of a bye and they actually lost going into
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: the by. They lost the boarder war at Missouri, and
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: I thought they might cover in that game, which they didn't.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: Difficult game, though, I add an SEC opponent. Kansas hasn't
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: really shown us anything yet other than they did easily
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: beat Fresno and Wagner Wagner Wagner, which doesn't really tell
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: us a whole lot. So this is gonna be a
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: more difficult game than that. But West Virginia they're kind
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: of in rebuild mode right now. I mean, they got
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: Rich rot over there as a coach. He might redevelop
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: that program, but it's not gonna happen instantaneously. Kansas is
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: obviously going to be a big favorite here. I guess
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: the question is is it justified. It's a bit of
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: a difficult spot for West Virginia here. Kansas is up
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: from or another down from thirteen to twelve and a half.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: The money's coming out in West Virginia seventy five percent
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Kansas only fifty four percent of the cash.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: Some of that might just be because Kansas hasn't really
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: shown us anything yet, right whereas West Virginia they at
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: least did beat Pitt already. But Kansas did face the
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: most difficult opponent that either team face so far, which
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: was Missouri, and they did have this buy some extra
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: time to try to prepare it things for this. Kansas
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: does still have Jalen Daniels there quarterback, not Jade and
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: Daniels to try to give them some continuity there because
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: they had him last year as well. We'll see what happens.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: Man Boise had air force. I'll talk about briefly, just
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: because I've heard some professional opinions on the Boise side
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: here Boise, nobody's seen anything from them yet. People saw
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: them getting blown out by South Florida and just an
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: ugly gamer. I think they were minus four and turnovers
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: all fumble, So I don't think there's really anything you'd
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: take away from that from Boise. There. Then they played
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: Eastern Washington. They haven't played now in fifteen days. They
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: played on a Friday, then they had a bye, and
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: they haven't played since then. So I think they're gonna
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: be extra prepared for this man, and this is gonna
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: be their conference opener, and they could still win the
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: conference obviously, because they haven't played any conference games yet.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: I think if they win the conference and they I
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: think if they don't lose any games in the conference,
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: there's a chance that they can still make the playoff.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: So that is actually still in front of them, so
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: they're not dream crushed yet. They did beat Eastern Washington
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: handily going into the buy, but that's you know, I mean,
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: I know it's a kind of a like geographic rivalry
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: to some extent there because the teams aren't that far
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: away from each other, But going into the buy on
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: a good note like that, I don't think matters that
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: much I think they're gonna spend the extra time preparing
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: for Air Force here Man because this is their conference opener.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: If they have a game against Apps Stayed Up next,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: which is a non conference game, which is weird, that
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: will be their FBS home opener though. But air Force
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: having the extra time to prepare for that is good
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: because air Force runs a triple option. But air Force
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: is the worst of the service academies. I think they're
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: lesser than Army and Navy right now. They're not very good.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: And these service academies they're not allowed to use like
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: the NIL I think were the transfer, so they're gonna
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: be taking steps further and further back. I think that's
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: not good. I think it was kind of surprising. Is
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: the R and B and Navy be so good last
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: year and recent years. I think they're gonna get worse.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: But air Force already has man So and Boise. They
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: face air Force every year anyway, so they're kind of
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: used to facing a triple option anyway, so I don't
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna be a detriment to Boise at all.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: Air Force, I mean, they just stink. Man Bois needs
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: to come out and show something. Air Force they did
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: just lose to Utah State last week. The one thing
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: that I hesitate about here is that this is the
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: home opener for FBS play for air Force. It is
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: a conference home opener. Of course it is Boise. I mean,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: Boise's gonna have a target on their back, so air
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: Force is gonna want to show up for that game.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna play it. But I have heard
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: some opinions on the Boise State side. I guess I'll
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: probably agree with it. They're up from ten to eleven,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: they're public eighty two percent of tickets. Public doesn't want
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: anything to do with air Force, but eighty five percent
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: of the cash. I mean, I do think it is
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: somewhat of a match there. So I don't disagree with
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: the Boise State side there. Justin, what's up? Man? Justin?
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: Our Missouri state camera man? Here is what Justin is?
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: That's right, Justin. I believe you were doing camera work
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: at that game. It was an interesting game. I watched
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: some of it on TV. My play I gave out
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: the play plus twenty eight man, and it was pretty
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: easy cover. SMU will only score twenty eight in the
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: entire game, and it probably should have been maybe even
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: closer than it was because I know Missouri State was driving.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: It looked like they were going to score and retake
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: the lead when they were down fourteen to ten. I
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: didn't see what happened at the end of that drive.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: I had it on at my parents' house and there's
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: some stuff going on. I missed what happened. I was like,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: what the fuck do they do? Turn it over? I
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, but we did get the cover, so
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: I'm happy about that. South Alabama, I could see being
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot here. I apologize if I'm boring
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: you guys. By the way, I'm gonna get to the
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: best bets. I know it's a long slog, but I
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: get autists. I like talking about this stuff. South Alabama,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: as I said, they had actually two pretty big games
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: in a row. They played Tulane really close a couple
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: of weeks ago at home, and I believe they were
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: a pretty big underdog in this one, and they played
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: Tulane close. I think Tulaian might have been looking ahead
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: to that big game against Duke. Yeah, Tulaana was a
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half point underdog and South Alabama almost
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: won that game. Then they hung pretty tough with Auburn
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: last week. They only lost by sixteen. I think they
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: were losing by more than that, and they scored again
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: right near the end. But South Alabama a big game
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: for them against Auburn. Man, it's a big in state
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: little Brothers situation, and that's the biggest opponent they face
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: all year. Now they're coming off of that and they
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: face Coastal Carolina, who looks like they're kind of in
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: a rebuild. You know, they lost Vasco. I don't know
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: how good Coastal Carolina is at all, probably not that good,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: so South Carolina might not totally focus on Coastal Carolina
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: though they are the better team. They do have North
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: Texas up next, which is a big opponent, but North
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: Texas is actually an out of conference game. So the
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: reason why I hesitate to really want to face in
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: South Alabama here it looks like to me they're in
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot here is that this is their conference
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: home opener. So I know it's not against a very
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: good team Coastal Carolina, but they might still show up
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: for it just because of that Coastal Carolina. I mean,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: they're in an embarrassed situation. They got shut out thirty
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: eight to nothing by East Carolina last time in what
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: should have been a game where maybe they would focus
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit Coastal Carolina. Maybe should have because it's
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: a game against another one of the Carolina schools, but
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: it was just a bad game for them, man, So
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: maybe they will want to bounce back a little bit here.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: It looks like they switch quarterbacks to So I don't
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: know what's going on with Coastal Carolina. Is a situation.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: They're there running back is Simpkins. I guess who. That's
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: what you call the guys who simp e thoughts or
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: something like that. Simpkins another name for simp Maybe he
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: is one of them. I don't know, but it's an
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: interesting setup there in that game. South Alabama is extremely
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: public though they're out from fourteen to sixteen, ninety five
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only ninety two percent of the cash.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: So I would probably fade South Alabama, and that was
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: just because it is still a game that they're coming
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: off that huge game against Auburn, although again I do
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: have my reservations about it. We'll talk about the Apple
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: Cup because this is a long standing rivalry between Washington
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: and Washington State. Washington is now in the Big ten though,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: and Washington State is orphaned in the Pac twelves or
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: the Pack two now, So I do think Washington State,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: I think they consider this game to be bigger at
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: this point now. I mean they're basically the little brother
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: now because Washington got to move on to the Big ten,
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: Washington State got left behind. Now, the only issue with
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: that that does make it a bigger game for Washington State.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: But the only issue with that is this is actually
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: revenge for Washington because I think this Washington last year,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: this was their first season in the Big ten, and
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: what happened in I think a neutral site game here
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: somewhere in the state of Washington. I guess Washington State
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: actually beat them. So Washington State did have that, you know,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: like little brother mentality in that game. Oh you left
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: us behind, you went to the Big ten, you think
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: you're big. Washington State beat them, So they did have
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: that mentality last year they got the wins. So now
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: it is a little bit of a revenge spot for
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: Washington here. But how much is Washington really gonna care
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: about revenge against what's still an orphan in Washington State?
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Man, because if you look at Washington
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: schedule here, yeah it is still a rivalr. Yeah they
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: still might get up for it. But they had a
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: bye and they went into the bye, as I talked
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: about on a hot note. They beat Colorado State, who's
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: not really very good this year, and they beat you
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: see Davis putting seventy points up on UC Davis, who
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: is an FCS team. Washington just annihilated them, and then
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: that's what they went into the bye with. Now they
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: play Washington State, which is gonna be their first road
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: game for washingt although they're used to playing here in Pullman, Washington.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be at Washington State. But look at
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: who they have next man. Washington plays Ohio State next.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: That is a big game. So I really don't like
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: the scheduling spot. I know it is revenge from last year,
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: but I really don't know how much Washington might care
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: about this game. Again, they went into the buy on
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: a hot note, so it's like, what do you have
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: to fix? You don't really have anything to fix. Washington State.
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: I know they're not good, but they're coming off that
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: blowout Loston where Texas that I talked about, and you
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: got to think they were looking ahead to this Washington game.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that they played last week might
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: actually help them coming into this game, because they got
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: annihilated and it was in an unfamiliar venue too, and
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: now they're coming back home. I think they were already
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: prepared for this Washington game, to be honest, man, I
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: think they want it more every year at this point,
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: just because Washington left them behind. So I would lean
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: to Washington State in this game. And that is the
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: way the money is coming in. You're getting three touchdowns
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: on this one. Washington is up from twenty and after
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: twenty one eighty percent of tickets on them fifty eight
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash though on the Washington State side.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I lean to Washington State in that one. Man.
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: Western conferences are so screwed up geographically, not really the
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: Western Conferences, but the Big Ten and the ACC both
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: are spread out like across the entire country now, which
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: is totally ridiculous. And of course when that first started,
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: you know, those teams definitely have a difficulty adjusting to
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: these new venues and having to do this travel. They're
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: not used to it. As they get used to it
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: more and more, it'll be a little bit easier, but
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's still not gonna be that easy. Arizona
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: State Baylor. This is a big, big twelve matchup, big big,
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: a big big twelve matchup here. Baylor, they took a loss,
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: you know, in that tough game opening the season against Auburn,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: an SEC team. They were pretty battle tested because they
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: played Auburn and then they played SMU and they were
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: able to come back and beat SMU, and then they
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: had a nice easy matchup last week against Samford, which
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: is kind of like a bye. So Baylor coming into
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: this game, it's gonna be a big game. It is
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: their home opener against the team that won the conference
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: last year, so they'll show up for Arizona State. But
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: Arizona State, I mean, they're gonna show up as well.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: And they did face Mississippi State on the road, so
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: they faced an SEC team as well, so they're not
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: a whole lot less battle tests. They're coming up beating
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: Texas Stage, who I think is not a terrible team.
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: I know they've been in bowls recently. At least going
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: out on the road to face Baylor here might be
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a better spot for Baylor. Looking
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: at the schedule there, coming off that easy game against Samford,
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: but Arizona States game wasn't that much more difficult last week,
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: So both teams are gonna show up here, and then
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: I kind of start leaning towards the better defense when
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: that happens. I know, this is a conference it's not
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: known for defense at all, But you're looking at Baylor,
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: who has the better offense. They returned their quarterback from
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: last year, I think, against Arizona State, who did also
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: return their quarterback from last year. But Arizona State is
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: the better defense of these two teams, So it is
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: more or less defense versus offense. You know, I lean
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: towards defense when that's the case, I think, especially when
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are gonna show up for a game.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: Baylor is down from two and a half to two here,
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: so the odds riggers are kind of telling you Arizona
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: State's the slightly better team here because Baylor's not getting
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: full home home field here. Even though I did expect
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: Arizona State to be a little bit worse this year
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: than they were last year and Baylor to actually be
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. But in this case, I actually
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: kind of lean to the defense, even though coming into
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: the season not that high on Arizona State, higher on
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: Baylor to some extent, but in this game, I think
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: Arizona State better defense. You're getting points. I think it's
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: probably the lean in this one. Sixty four percent of
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: tickets fifty one percent of the cash on Baylor, so
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: they're public with less of the money coming in on them.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: So that's probably the way that I would look in
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: that one, and then anything else before my best bets,
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. I don't think I really give
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: a shit about most of the rest of these games.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: Let's do it, man, So that was the breakdown. I
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: forgot to throw the graphic out there. You can hear
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: my glass cole Brew glass here clinging around there. Let's
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: do it, man. Let's go to the best bets. The
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: cooler Ay, it's the fawns version of Toad or something.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know, the cooler version of Toad. There. Let's
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: go into it, man, the best bets. We're gonna have
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: four of them. As I mentioned, you're probably not gonna
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: like too many of them, or maybe any of them.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: The first one up, I know we've lost a little
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: bit of live value on a couple of these, so
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: I know, bear with me. We don't get the best
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: number on these, but I like the spot. We're gonna
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: roll with it anyway. The first one up, we're gonna
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: go with this ugly MAC team, Miami Ohio plus two
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: and a half. You're gonna be thinking, what the fuck
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: are you doing? Man? What am I doing? Kind of
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: like gooh when I played if you remember, I played
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: Miami Ohio last year in one of the somewhat earlier
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: MAC games of the season, when Miami Ohio I think,
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: didn't even have a win yet or they only had
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: one win and they were up against a team that
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: had like the inverse of that and only had one
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: loss or whatever. But I was like, Miami Ohio was
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: actually the better team because they had faced a win
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: or difficult schedule. I don't know if you guys remember that,
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: and it was an easy win or whatever that game was.
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: So it was like, very very misleading teams just had
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: very misleading records based on who they faced early in
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: the season. And I think we're getting something similar to
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: that here, man, and this is UNLV at Miami Ohio.
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: I like Miami Ohio in this one, man, UNLV's coming in. Yeah,
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: everybody thinks UNLV is the better team, and they were ranked.
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: They're in the Mountain West, they competed for the mount West.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: They were in the Mountain West title game last year.
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna see, Oh yeah, UNLV beat UCLA. But how
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: impressed are we with that? When UCLA has looked like
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: total ass and now they just fired their coach. I
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: don't really know, man, this UNLV team, they're still trying
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: to get used to having new personnel here. They're under
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: Dan Mullens now at coach, which you know, I'm not
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: a fan of him, as you know. I know you
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: guys said he was good at Mississippi State, but not
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: a huge fan UNLV. They're three and oh yeah, I
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: know they started off the season hot, but I think
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: they're still kind of getting used to this quarterback. They
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: have your Coleandria Kolonic Colon. I don't know who this
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: guy is, man Colon oscoping. He's done alright for them,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: I guess, But look, I mean their opponents, I mean,
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: come on, man, they beat Idaho State, they only beat
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: them by seven. As a huge favorite against an FCS team,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: that's not impressive. They beat sam Houston. I know that
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: was on the road, but Sam Houston they're pretty new
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: to FBS. They overperformed last year. That's not impressive either,
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: So then what are we left with? They beat UCLA
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: at home. I did say I thought UCLA was gonna
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: win that game, but u CLA they're just in total disarrayment.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: And that was a big win for UNLV because they
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: beat a Big ten team. They beat Ucla, And what
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: do I always talk about or what I did? What
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: did I just start talking about tonight? As well? They
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: went into a bye after that, so they went into
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: the buy on like the best possible. Note they three
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: and zero to start the season. They beat probably like, yeah,
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: the biggest opponent they're gonna face all season, a Big
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: ten opponent. They beat Ucla. They beat Nico and UCLA
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: there and that's how they went into the bye. And
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: now they play a MAC team who is at and
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: hasn't even won a game yet. I don't think before
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: they go play or maybe they won one game. No,
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: they did win one game, and they look in a
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: second maybe they haven't. Yeah, they're playing a MAC team
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: that I don't think they're gonna pay attention to they're
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: having to go east to play an early star time
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: and I know I said that doesn't affect teams that much,
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: but still it's an unfamiliar travel spot for UNLV and
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: it is only their second road game Oshan was their first,
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: but still not that easy. And they do start conference
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: play the following week or excuse me, after another by.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: They have another by after this? What the fuck? This
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: game is in a bye sandwich, which that sounds really weird,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: A buy sandwich man between yeah, two bisexuals or whatever.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah, I just I don't think
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: this is a good spot at all. Man. Again, they
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: went into that break on the highest note that they
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: could have been in a good well not a good team,
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: but a big conference team like UCLA. Haven't lost a
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: game yet, there's nothing that you have to fix like
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: during the bye, right like during the bye, So like,
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: what are you really gonna do to prepare for Miami
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: Ohio who hasn't won a game yet? Like I said,
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: Miami Ohio is oh to two. But look at who
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: they played. They've played the more difficult schedules so far.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: They played two Big ten teams already. They actually held
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin to seventeen points. So I mean, I know Wisconsin's
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: quarterback got hurt in the game, but their backup quarterback
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: I actually played a little bit better. So I mean,
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: think about that what you will, But they actually didn't
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: play that badly against Wisconsin, even though I know they
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: didn't score. And then the Rutgers game, they were worrying
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: me a little bit because they gave about Rutgers as
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: a favorite in that game and Miami Ohio was kind
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: of hanging around in that game. I know Miami Ohio
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: had to rebuild their offense this year behind Finn, but
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: he's he's like a seven year senior, seventh year senior
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: or something. Finn. I think that's what he is. It's
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: ridiculous with the way that you can red shirt multiple
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: years now. So he's at least the guy that's been
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: around for a long time for Miami Ohio. He's got
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: a decent game under his belt now. He played pretty
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: well actually in that game against Rutgers. And then what
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: did Miami Ohio do into a buy? So they had
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: to buy it the best possible time because they went
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: into the buy on the worst now possible. They haven't
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: won a game yet, so you know they're gonna be
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: using that buy to prepare for this, try to fix
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: some things. This is their home opener. They haven't even
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: played a home game yet, so you know the crowd's
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: going to be crazy for this game. It's the home opener.
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna show up for it. And they don't have
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: a big game at all next week. They're playing an
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: FCS team next week, linden Wood. So this is their
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: one of their biggest remaining opponents on the entire schedule
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: because they play Mac all MAC opponents after linden Wood.
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: So huge. It's a huge game for Miami Ohio. Man,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: it's the last big conference opponent they're gonna face. They
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: might want to try to show up and get a win,
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: and the line it looks like they can. Who the
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: fuck is gonna want to take Miami Ohio with a
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: line like this. I know we lost some value. I
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: wish we got it a plus three. I get it,
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: we're not gonna see the plus three again, but this
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: is some real line movement coming in towards Miami Ohio here, man,
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: So I know we're chasing a little bit here. The
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: two and a half are still out there hopefully they
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: still are. I mean, if you want to take one
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: and a half, I guess you could probably still do it.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 1: Maybe fire on the Miami HU money line. It was
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: four at some point in UNLV, and it's down to
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: one and a half. Fifty four percent of tickets on ULV,
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash coming in on Miami Ohio.
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: This is at noontime. It is on ESP and you
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: the U, not Miami. It's Miami playing on the U. Hey,
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: that's crazy, but not Miami Florida. That's crazy. But yeah,
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: I mean the money's coming in that way. I think
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: this is a significant move through the three. I think
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: it is a professional side. I'm gonna just suck it
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: up and I'm gonna take it man with this one.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: I know you'd rather have the best of the key
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: number three it's gone. I know I wish I saw
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 1: this earlier, but this is a This also is you know,
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: a lesson in like how you handicapp buys man, and
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: hopefully it works out for me because that is how
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: you handicapped the buy situations. And we have inverted buy
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: situations here with one team going into the buy on
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: the best possible note one team coming out of the
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: buy going into the buy on the worst possible note,
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: and the team that went in on the best note
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: hasn't lost a game yet, and the team that went
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: in on the bad note hasn't won a game yet.
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: So who in the right mind is gonna see this
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: even at plus even at the nine of four, the
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 1: public is only gonna want to play n l V
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: here man, Who the hell is gonna want to take
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: the winless MAC team against an against an undefeated Mountain
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: West team that just beat a Big ten team. Yeah,
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: the public's not gonna do it. You gotta you gotta
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: get ugly, man. If you want to actually do this,
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: do this and try to actually profit and make money,
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: you gotta get ugly. And that's what we're doing. We're
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: getting ugly. Next up, we do get the best pretty
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: much the best of a key number here. I don't
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: think you're gonna get the hook on this, but we're
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: gonna go Memphis plus seven. We're gonna fade Arkansas here.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 1: This is a spot where I think Arkansas is in
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: a bad spider. I think you will get the seven
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: and a half here man. Although cash percentage is on
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: Arkansas right now. But I don't think it's going to
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: be by the time the game kicks off, which is
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: also at noon. This game is on ABC, so it
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 1: gets a big billing on ABC home game for Memphis,
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: So I think Memphis is really gonna show up, man.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: They get to host an SEC team on national TV
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: on ABC. That's a big spot for Memphis, man, So
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get focused out of Memphis here. Arkansas is
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: up for six and a half to seven. It's going
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: through the seven. I think you will probably get the
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: seven and a half on this one, so I would
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: wait if you don't see the seven and a half,
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: now just wait. If you see it, take the seven
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: and a half, you get the hook on the seven
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: and a half. I'll probably score this at seven and
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: a half because I think the seven and a half
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: is probably actually even out there right now, sixty nine
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Arkansas seventy one percent of the
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: cash on Arkansas. But yeah, again, I don't think that
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: cash percentage is gonna stay that way Arkansas. I think
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for Arkansas, man. As somebody
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: as I talk about when a team loses their first
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: game of the season, they have to turn around and
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 1: play again. Sometimes they lose that game twice effectively because
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: they're just hung over from losing that game. They weren't
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: used to losing yet. I mean, Arkansas was rolling, although
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: they rolled bad teams, I mean Alabama and then Arkansas State.
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: But that was a huge game they played against ole
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: Miss last week. Man, they went on the road, played
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: a ranked ole Miss team, Big SEC game was their
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: SEC opener, and it was fairly close. They lost by six,
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: and it was a six point game after Arkansas cut
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: it to six with still five minutes left to go.
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: So Arkansas had a chance. Man, they were within one
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: score for the final few minutes of that game. They
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: had a chance to potentially win that game against ole Miss,
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: fell just short. It's a big game for them. They
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: actually outgained ole Miss. So yeah, you could say that
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 1: Arkansas actually was better than they even looked in that game.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: That is true. So sometimes you don't want to fade
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: a team that looked better than they looked. But or
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: that was a team that was better than they looked.
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, but and yes they were. But that was
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: a big game, man, Arkansas potentially had a shot to
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: win that game at ole Miss. And not only that,
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: but now they have to play a second straight road
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 1: game at Memphis, which is a down spot in Arkansas
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: schedule because it's a lesser conference team for them. Who
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: do they playing next? They notre Dame at home, and
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: that's a that's gonna be one of their biggest home
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: games of the season, man, prior to conference play resuming
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: for Arkansas. So that's a huge game too, man. So
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: this is a downspot for them. It's a sandwichbot between
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: two big opponents. So I like this. Memphis, they're undefeated.
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: I know, they haven't really beaten anybody. They beat Chattanooga,
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: Georgia State, Troy. Those last two teams are both wins
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: on the road though, those last two games against FBS opponents,
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: and Memphis actually shut them down. Like Memphis, you don't
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: really think of them as a defensive team, and I
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: still don't really think they are. But Georgia State and
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: Troy they're not very good offenses, I don't think. But
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 1: they really had some trouble scoring against Memphis. So it
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: is possible and Memphis can hang in this game for sure.
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: And again it's a big game for Memphis, and it's
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: their FBS home opener too. In addition to all that,
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: the only home game they played so far as against
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: FCS Chattanoogas. This is a huge game from Memphis and
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: they're facing an SEC team is the only Power Conference
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: team playing all seasons, so it's a huge game from Memphis.
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get up for him, man, And yeah,
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: I know they're having to get used to Lewis being
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 1: their quarterback now. They had Hennigan last year. I'm pretty
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: sure Lewis he seems like he's off to the races
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: and this Smith guy at running back, which so he's
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: putting up some decent numbers. I think this Memphis offense
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: can do some things. It could be a little bit balanced.
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: I know Arkansas does have the better defense, they're obviously
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: the better team. But oh, we already see the cash
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: percentage down to sixty seven percent, so the cash has
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 1: already kind of coming in against them. So just be
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: on the lookout for the seven and a half. Man,
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: I would still take the plus seven if you really
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: don't see it. I like Memphis in that one. Yeah,
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: we're talking about buys a lot, talking about gays and
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: straits a little bit too. I haven't talked about trans
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: at all. Oh you know what, I forgot to talk
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: about Clemson and Syracuse. I mean that game I actually
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: do have a little bit of an opinion on, so
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: I'll insert I'll insert it in. This is not a
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 1: best bet for me, but I'm just gonna throw out
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: my opinion on this real quick. Clemson. Everybody just shitting
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: on Clemson. What is wrong with Clemson? They lost to LSU,
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 1: But I mean, come on, it's LSU and SEC team,
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: and you know, you can't really fault Clemson for losing
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: LSU a close game. And then Georgia Tech is better
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: than people think they are too, So I don't think
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: you give fault Clemson for those losses. Yes, I know
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 1: they didn't play well against Troy, but you remember I
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: had Troy as a play on my show in that
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: game plus thirty one because it was a sandwich spot
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 1: for Clems. It was a bad spot. I think this
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: is a get right spot for Clemson here. Man. I
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 1: know they're coming off kind of a big game ish,
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 1: but I actually think they bounce back here and Syracuse
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: they're not. I mean, Syracuse is two and one and
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 1: and Clemson is one and two, But come on, man,
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: we know who the better team actually is. Syracuse's wins
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 1: or against Yukon and they almost lost that game. And
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: then they beat Colgate last week. Okay, an FCS team whatever.
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 1: Not impressed by that. So I actually dueling to Clemson
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: in that game slightly. Then the money's disagree with me.
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: Clemson down for seventeen and a half to seven. But
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 1: I think Clemson has to show it because they could
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: still win the ACC. Man, they're own one in the ACC.
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: I gotta know they're coming off a big game, but
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna see that game as more of
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: like an embarrassing game more or less. So I don't
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 1: think it's like a hangover spot. I mean, they have
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: to get right at some point, but they do a
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent to take it's only sixty percent of
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: the cash. They're down from seventeen and a half to
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: seventeen here, but Syracuse they're just bad. Man. Again, the
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 1: records of these teams are a little bit misleading. So
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: and Clemson they could still win the ACC. They're only
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: on one in the ACC right now. Do you think
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 1: any team is gonna go undefeated in the in the ACC?
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 1: Probably not so Clemson. They could still win the win
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: me a conference man, they just gotta make the conference championships,
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: so they're not out of it. No dream crusher scenario there.
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on that game. Real quick,
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: I'll let's get to the other two best bets. That
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: was the intermission. I told you, ugly, ugly, ugly, We're
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: gonna go. This is as ugly as it gets. Probably
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw State plus the four and a half. I know
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: this line was six and half at some points. I
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: actually saw the opener was seven, but I don't really
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: think that the seven was really ever out there, so
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: you don't have to be too disappointed about that. I
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: know seven is a very key number, but I still
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: like this A plus four and a half. This is
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: fading Arkansas State down from seven to four and a half. Really,
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: I think it was down from six and a half
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: to four and a half. I know better to get
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: the better numbers, but six and a half to four
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: and a half is not really that. You're not losing
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 1: that much value that between those two numbers. The fives
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 1: are all dead numbers for the most part, because the
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 1: game rarely lands on that number. On five sixty six
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets eighty two percent of the cash on Kennesaw.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: I don't really even think the public, what public better
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: is coming into Kennisa State, So I don't even think
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: that's accurate. I think maybe it's just because the public
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: is just not betting this game at all. I mean,
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: there are bigger games to bet on the board, so
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: the public's probably not even betting this game at all.
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 1: So when you see a percentage like that, keep that
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: in mind that it's actually probably professional betters that are
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: making it. So that sixty six percent of tickets are
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 1: on Kennesaw, it's probably some of it is probably more
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: professional than recreational on that, but the cash is coming
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: even more so on kannessas eighty two percent of the cash,
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: which kind of confirms my thinking on that. Again, there
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 1: where is this game? These are the night games, so
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: we have two noon games that we have a couple
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: of games in the evening. This is at six pm
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: only on ESPN Plus. Isn't that just great? This is
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: a fate of Arkansas State, though more than it is
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 1: a play on Iowa State. I think it's a bit
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 1: of a sandwich spot, or at least it's a hangover
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: spot for Arkansas State. Arkansas State, they won their opener
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 1: against CIMO Southeast Missouri State, that's an FCS team. Then
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: they had a game against Arkansas. Obviously they were not
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 1: expected to win against Arkansas, but Arkansas State it's a
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 1: big game for them because it's a an in state
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: little brothers situation. Arkansas blew them out. But then what
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: did Arkansas State do last week? They hung with Iowa State.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: Man who's ranked in the top fifteen and is undefeated.
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State only lost that game by eight points as
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 1: twenty and a half point underdogs, and they were in
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 1: this game, they were losing by one point in the
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter. Man. So Arkansas State had a huge game
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: there against Iowa State and they came close to pulling
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: off a ridiculous upset, and now they're coming off of that.
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 1: I talk about this. When you have a team that
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: was a huge underdog and they played this big, big
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 1: game and they actually came that close to pulling off
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 1: an upset, they're gonna be in a hangover spot the
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 1: next week. Man. So I think that's the case with
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State, and they're having to go on the road
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 1: for this to knisaan they're not used to playing there
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 1: because Kanansaw isn't in their conference. Kanansas is new to FBS.
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think Arkansas State. I don't know if they've
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 1: ever played at Kansas State before, to be honest, So
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: it's a weird travel spot for them, weird game, and
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: then they just start conference playing next week. I know
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: it's against Uel Monroe. Joel Monroe is not good, but
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: Joan Monroe is a divisional foe in the Sunbelt. Arkansas
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: State and jo Monroe both in the Sun Belt West,
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: and that's gonna be Arkansas State's first conference games. That's
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 1: a pretty big game for them, man, So I think
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 1: that makes it a little bit of a sandwich spot
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: as well, if it's not already selling you on this
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: game on just the fact that it's a major hangover
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 1: spot KNASA State. I mean, they actually faced a couple
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: of big conference opponents so far. Their two losses are
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: to ACC and Big ten teams. They actually only lost
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 1: at Wake Forest by one point in the first week,
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: so they hung with wake Forest, so I know Wake's
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 1: not good in the ACC. That was an eighteen and
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: a half points spread in that game, and Kennasa held
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: them to ten points and hung right in that game.
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 1: So Kenisa played competitively there and then yeah, they got
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: blown out by Indiana, but we know Indiana has a
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 1: really good offense. But I mean a little bit more
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 1: battle testing for Knasas and then Kennessaug. I've talked about this.
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 1: They got the monkey off their back last week with
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 1: a win. I know it was against an FCS opponent
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 1: in Merrimac. Merrimack actually almost beat beat Kent State. They're
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: playing all the k's, which was hilarious that they almost
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: beat Kent State. And then your guy what was his name,
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: de Real Dereason, whatever the hell his name was something
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 1: Clark to Reality or whatever his name was. I forget
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 1: his name. Whatever that guy's name was. That guy Clark
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: had like a kick return touchdown for Merrimack against it
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 1: for Kent State to beat Merrimack. Merrimack. Maybe they're not
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: that bad of an sec SEC and not that bad
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 1: of an FCS team, to be honest, but Kennisaw did
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 1: beat them last week at home, and I talked about
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: that again. Kennisaw got that monkey off their back because
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 1: they hadn't won a game yet. I know it wasn't
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 1: against an FBS foe. I think we're up to a
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 1: seventeen and a half point favorite. In that game, they
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 1: didn't cover, but they got the win. So that's good
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 1: because that means they get that monkey off their back.
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 1: They don't have to worry about the fact they haven't
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 1: won a game yet, and now they get to just
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 1: kind of play and they play Arkansas State here. I mean,
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: it's not really a play on Knasau State, though I
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 1: think that makes it a slightly positive spot starting some
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: new momentum. Never really, I think it's just a bad
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 1: spot for Arkansas State. So we will go with Kennasa
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 1: State plus the points. I know, I know it's ugly, man,
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 1: And the last game is the one that is the
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 1: only one of the games I have a play on
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 1: that people actually are gonna want to watch this game
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 1: that people think it's important. You guys are gonna hate
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 1: me for this. Yeah the Realist Clark, that's his name. Yeah,
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 1: datotis Clark. Is it de Realists derieltor reality Reality TV.
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with Florida plus seven and a half.
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: I told you you're gonna hate me for this. Nobody
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: thinks of Florida has a chance in this game at
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 1: this point, man, nobody does. Uh, But let's let's think
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 1: about it for a minute. I mean, first of all,
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, I mean, this looks way too easy.
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 1: Miami is ranked fourth in the country and Florida is
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 1: unranked right now, and everybody's just shitting on Florida. Miami's
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 1: only laying a little bit over a touchdown here den
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: for May and a half to seven and a half.
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, anywhere in that price range obviously is fine.
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 1: You can take plus eight whatever it is out there,
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 1: eighty percent to tickets, only seventy one percent of the
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 1: cash on Miami. Miami is extremely public with less than
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. Miami ranked fourth in the country,
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 1: Florida unranked, and yet Miami is only seven a half
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 1: point favorite at home. So the oddsmakers are basically telling
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 1: you that these teams were only separated by really maybe
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 1: even like three four points. So that doesn't seem right, right,
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: Like the public's gonna see that and think this is easy, man.
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 1: And not only that, but they're gonna think this is
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 1: even easier because what did Miami do last week? I
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 1: gave out Miami on the show. Remember, So this is
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 1: how I do it. Man. I'm on one team one week,
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 1: and I'm going against them the next week. So that's
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 1: what I do. I gave out Miami last week and
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: they blew out South Florida. And why did I like
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 1: Miami in that game Because South Florida was coming off
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 1: upsetting Florida and over celebrating, and I thought that was
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 1: just such a monumental win that. Even though South Florida
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: was a big game against Miami as well, I just
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 1: thought they celebrated so much. It was just such a
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: big game against Florida. South Florida was just being overrated.
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 1: I thought, Nah, Miami's just gonna blow them out, and
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 1: that's what happened. So I got that right. But now
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 1: think about this. The public's gonna see this and see
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 1: the Miami just beat South Florida forty nine to twelve.
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 1: South Florida beat Florida. So what are people gonna think
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 1: about this game? It's only a seven half points spread.
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 1: They're gonna think, Oh, if Miami can beat South Florida
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 1: by thirty whatever points, and South Florida beat Florida, the
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 1: Miami should beat Florida by thirty or forty points, right,
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 1: this is easy. Well, it doesn't work that way at all, Man.
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 1: It's all about the situation. You can't overreact to one
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 1: individual result like this at all. Man. The rankings makers
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 1: don't tell you exactly what the story is. Florida is
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 1: better than South Florida is. That's just the way that
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 1: it is. Even though even though Florida did lose that game,
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: no oddsmaker in the right mind is gonna is gonna
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 1: not have Florida be like a double digit favorite against
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 1: South Florida. Miami. I know they look good, they beat
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 1: self or they blew them out, but South Florida is
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 1: not that good. Miami beat Bethune cook Man, who cares
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 1: about that? And then they wanted a close game against
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame where their quarterback was Notre Dames quarterback was
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 1: basically playing his first, like real game as a starter,
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 1: whereas Miami just came into the season almost ready to
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 1: go with Carson Beck there. I know Carson Beck's good.
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 1: I know he's used to facing SEC defenses, but this
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the first SEC defense that he's facing
• 2:03:25
  Speaker 1: this year. Man and Florida, they just need the game more.
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 1: Man and Miami does have Florida State up next, So
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 1: is it possible that Miami actually even overlooks Florida here?
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 1: Miami has a by next, and then they have Florida State.
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, it seems ridiculous to think
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 1: that they might overlook the University of Florida. But Florida,
• 2:03:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're just looking so bad, like they've just
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 1: had a down, like like multiple years at this point,
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 1: they've been down. So I don't know, man, But Florida
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 1: they faced some more difficult schedule somewhat. I mean they
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 1: both teams face South Florida. Yeah, Florida lost at home
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 1: by two. I know that in Miami's game was also
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 1: at home. Florida played LSU last week, so I know
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 1: Florida is coming off a tough game against LSU. But
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 1: there's no way that Florida could possibly overlook Miami here, man,
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 1: And they know they have Texas next, which is that's
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 1: a game that they probably are not gonna win either.
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I would guess, so they got to get
• 2:04:19
  Speaker 1: this win. Man, billion Apier, I mean, his career, like
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 1: his it's on the line here. Man. If he loses
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 1: this game badly, he's gonna get fired, So there's that
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 1: aspect too. I don't know if the team likes him though,
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 1: if they really want to help him out and play
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 1: well for him here. But I think he's got to
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 1: get a win here. Man. And Florida, I mean, yeah,
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 1: they lost to South Florida. It was just kind of
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 1: a weird game. You know. South Florida obviously got up
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 1: for that game in a big way. I want to
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 1: see the statistics in this game for a minute here,
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: If you look at the stats in this game, yes,
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 1: South Florida did outplay them slightly on the on the
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 1: stat sheet here, though, Florida did outpossess them, so I
• 2:04:59
  Speaker 1: guess yeah, you not much take away from that. Then
• 2:05:01
  Speaker 1: Florida against LSU last week. Florida actually was in this game, man, LSU.
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 1: We know LSU is probably taking a little bit of
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 1: a step forward here. Florida was actually down to a
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 1: five and a half point favor by the time that
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 1: game tipped off. They were seven point underd for a while.
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 1: Florida was in that game. Man, They were only down
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 1: three at halftime, and then for some reason, just no
• 2:05:21
  Speaker 1: points were scored again from third quarter on. Neither offense
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 1: scored in the entire second half. That last touchdown for
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 1: LSU was a huge interception return touchdowns. This is a
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 1: pretty misleading result to be honest here, man, Florida, they
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 1: actually outgained LSU in this game, but they had five turnovers.
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 1: Florida lost a turnover battle, but minus four, LSU only
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: had ten first downs. So I mean Florida should have
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 1: won this game. Man. They out first down LSU twenty
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 1: three to ten. They outpossessed them by fifteen minutes, and
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 1: they outgained them. So stat sheet says Florida should have
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 1: won this game. It's ridiculous. So they didn't win this
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 1: game based on those stats. So this game was not
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 1: what it appeared. Man. And again, yes, I know it
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 1: was a big game. Normally, let's say Florida's gonna be
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 1: in a hangover spot coming off a game like that,
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 1: but you're not gonna be unfocused against Miami. Man, all right,
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 1: Florida needs to They need to get the win here.
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 1: They're the team and everybody's shitting on right now. Everybody's
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 1: hyping Miami right now. Holy shit, Miami looks good. They're
• 2:06:21
  Speaker 1: ranked fourth in the country. Now, I can tell you,
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 1: right Now, Miami is not the fourth best team in
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 1: the country. They're not actually a top five team. They're
• 2:06:27
  Speaker 1: probably like a top fifteen team. Yes, their offense is good,
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 1: but the other thing is their defense isn't actually that good.
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 1: Florida's defense is solid. Florida is the way better of
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 1: these two defenses. Actually, so you get you're getting points
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 1: with the better defense too, And you know I talk
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 1: about that too. That's another thing you're getting with Florida here.
• 2:06:46
  Speaker 1: You're getting the better defense getting points here. Sure, Miami
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: has the better offense. Florida. Their offense is capable of
• 2:06:52
  Speaker 1: more than what they've done so far with the Lagway,
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's I guess, still trying to get his
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 1: bearings here. He started some of their games last year,
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 1: but I think this is his first full season there.
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 1: At some point, Florida's got to get on track here. Man,
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 1: Florida's just not as bad as they look. Florida probably
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 1: should still be a ranks team in my opinion. Like,
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're not one of the twenty five
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 1: best teams in the country, and I think Miami is
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 1: just overrated. So it really this is value here, man.
• 2:07:20
  Speaker 1: You listen to everybody out there talking about this. Everybody's
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 1: hyping Miami and everybody's shitting on Florida. So when I
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 1: hear all that going on and people think that it's
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 1: just absolutely impossible and absolutely nobody's gonna want this one,
• 2:07:32
  Speaker 1: that's what I do. And then of course it really
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 1: sold me with the fact that Miami blew out South
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 1: Florida and South Florida beat Florida, Like, you can't really
• 2:07:39
  Speaker 1: get a better situation that the public does. It's like
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 1: I call it the transit of property, where if team
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 1: A beat Team B and Team B beat Team C,
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 1: and then that means team A must beat Team C. Right,
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 1: That's just not the way it works, because everything's an
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 1: independent result in a different situation. So and like I said,
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 1: Florida is actually a better team than South Florida. So
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 1: that's it, man, Florida plus the points. I know you
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 1: guys hate that one, but I like it. It's one
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 1: of my more favorite plays. Actually, I kind of like
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 1: all of them this week, so hopefully we get it.
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 1: Let's get it. I'm very selective here with a ton
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 1: of games on the board, and I narrowed down to
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 1: only like four, so I'm more selective here than I
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 1: am probably in like baseball and whatever the baseball's I
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 1: do baseball. I do totals too, which is the reason
• 2:08:23
  Speaker 1: why I have more baseball plays. Let's not talk about
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 1: that total anymore today. I don't even want to talk
• 2:08:28
  Speaker 1: about it in the morning, but I'll be back in
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: the morning once again. My plays here Miami, Ohio plus
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 1: the two and a half, Memphis plus seven, Kennesa State
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 1: plus four and a half, and Florida plus seven and
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 1: a half. Probably can get Memphis seven and a half
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 1: in Florida plus eight really plus eight, really, it doesn't
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 1: matter that much, but either way, that's gonna do it.
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 1: Learn itz one on Twitter, learn itzone on Instagram. Thanks
• 2:08:49
  Speaker 1: guys for hanging out like subscribe on YouTube better off Dead.
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 1: You can find me on audio go listen there. That
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 1: helps me out as well. Give me a good review
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: on Apple and Spotify on YouTube you can check that
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 1: out too. Try to get that going a little bit
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 1: to my ukulele channel and then Patreon dot com slash
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 1: unders to learn it to toe. There are some bonus
• 2:09:09
  Speaker 1: ukulele things on there as well. That's gonna do it.
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 1: Man Nate justin mister cover of these Twitter guys who
• 2:09:17
  Speaker 1: are not the regulars and uh DJ just not a
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 1: lot of guys in the chats, and unfortunately, I think
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 1: we get more. Usually everybody's busy tonight, I guess, but
• 2:09:26
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. I'll be back in the morning
• 2:09:28
  Speaker 1: because we've got to talk about w NBA and Major
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 1: League Baseball, I guess in the morning. And well, I'll
• 2:09:33
  Speaker 1: give up these plays one more time, but then analysis
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 1: is on this show, so enjoy it. I'll be back
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 1: in the morning, and that's gonna do it for now.
• 2:09:41
  Speaker 1: Man Peace,