Latest / The Yield Doctor with James Deaker / Greg MacDonald 2024 Ad Tech Trends

Transcript

Greg MacDonald 2024 Ad Tech Trends · The Yield Doctor with James Deaker

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my guest today is Greg McDonald Greg is
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the founder of Chelsea strategies and
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advisory firm that helps ad Tech leaders
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accelerate programmatic Partnerships and
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product strategy Greg has spent a number
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of years decades in a series of firms
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including Yahoo and Verizon media where
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he led efforts around the development
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and management of programmatic buying
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and auction-based Market
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places today we're going to be talking
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about a series of different key trends
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that Greg sees in the market in 20124
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and how you can be better positioned to
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take advantage of those Trends Greg
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thank you so much for joining me today
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thanks so much James I'm looking forward
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to our
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conversation excellent Now Greg I know
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that you have identified a number of
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Trends I think in a recent post you
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outlined at least nine I don't
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necessarily intend to get into all nine
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today although I think I want to focus
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on a couple of specific ones and also
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how some of those interact and uh I want
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to start with something that isn't
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necessarily a trend but a feature of AD
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buying in 2024 which is of course in the
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US the election firstly talk to me about
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the constraints around political because
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not all adtech players choose to really
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engage with political ads and why is
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that
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so indeed every four years the US has
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presidential elections and that's really
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when we see uh when we talk the most
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about it um and uh in terms of
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constraints I would say broadly speaking
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it's really about the willingness to be
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exposed to the potential risks that go
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along with political
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campaigns um campaigns move very very
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quickly um they and ads are often
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responding to things that occurred in a
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new cycle um so both the ads themselves
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as well as the topics they move very
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quickly and they can be controversial
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and so it's something where um it's it
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is largely a reputational risk or it's a
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PR risk if you will where where players
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Publishers and platforms will say you
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know do we have the what it takes to uh
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to go and and respond uh to to get the
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campaigns up quickly and then to respond
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and to uh match the supply and demand in
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ways that meet the needs of The
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Advertiser and the publisher as well as
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the audiences that they're that they're
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working with so I would say that's sort
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of the single biggest thing there there
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are a number of other areas within there
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but but that's really the single biggest
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thing that most platforms spend their
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time talking about is um is how quickly
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it goes um and the the potential risks
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PR risks if you will that that go with
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those and just on that point and I don't
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claim to be an expert in this area but I
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believe that there is sort of more of an
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onus on Publishers and adtech providers
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to check that all the entities they're
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interacting with are genuine political
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entities I know some of them try to do
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things like set up databases Etc to make
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sure they understand all the entities
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that they're working with is that just
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an extra hurdle for anyone who's trying
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to engage in a programmatic manner um it
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is an extra hurdle and I think that um
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uh it's something that sort of leads to
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one of the other Dynamics that's going
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to be it's not new but I think it's
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going to be much more present with AI
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this year which is um the ability for AI
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to really power creatives to create deep
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fakes whether that's audio or visual or
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both um and so you want to know both you
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know it's kind of a know your customer
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uh perspective but then also uh know
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your you're creative and um and you know
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it's are because you don't want to
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become a vehicle for disinformation
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that's again not a new problem in
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digital marketing at all but it's one
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where the stakes are much higher when it
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comes to political and to election
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Cycles um and it's one where the
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incentives are very high for for Bad
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actors to to try to step in you're
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actually already answering one of the
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questions I was going to ask you which
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is you know around what's going to be
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different this election cycle and
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clearly sort of AI and deep fakes are a
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big part of that if I'm a programmatic
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adtech player what am I trying to do to
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protect myself during the selection
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cycle
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um so again you're going to be looking
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at uh knowing your customer
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understanding who they are where they're
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coming from um and you're going to be
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doing creative validation you're you're
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going to be looking at it in a number of
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different ways and um and then really
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making sure that you've got people on
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the front lines at all the different
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parts of the the supply chain um to to
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check that things are going right and
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you're going to have uh contracts you're
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going to have procedures and you're
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going to have uh technology that that is
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helping you uh try to make sure that
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that um that you've got good actors and
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and the right ads that are going uh
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where you want them to
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go and and how do you expect the
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programmatics spend to play out this
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election cycle there's this question of
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how much of it's going to be targeted
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specifically at those key swing States
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or you know undecided voters or is this
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a case where the extra spend sort of
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raises all boats or the the rising tide
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raises all boats and so we might
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actually see bidding up in all the
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programmatic markets and and you know
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additional beneficiaries beyond that
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political vertical um so that's a great
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question I think something that was a
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shift probably the last cycle four years
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ago but I'm not sure everybody realizes
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is that political ads have really made
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the shift to CTV and video formats it's
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longer format it's more engag enging its
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higher impact um and so that that was
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something that happened and that we can
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certainly expect to see uh continue and
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and I think that uh the buyers will
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continue to lean into those formats even
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more heavily than they might have in the
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past um but on the point of what's what
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are going to be some of the impacts on
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the the
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marketplace um certainly you know our
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people going to be buying in in targeted
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swing States as well as overall yes um
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it's not an either it's certainly going
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to be both um but in the programmatic
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marketplaces in particular like in in
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the open market and the pmps um you'll
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certainly have the swing States but um
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in certain places I don't know that
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we'll see all boats are that that that
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the the overall market price is is going
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to go up but we absolutely will see that
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certain Pockets will be sold out um
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certain time slots will be sold out and
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certain Publishers uh will will also
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likely be sold out so I think um is
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everybody going to see higher prices
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probably not but are we that certainly
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that would be my guess but are you
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likely to run into a spot where
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something is not available or something
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is more expensive than you might have uh
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anticipated I think every buyer is going
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to run into that to some degree but uh
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the overall prices um I I don't know
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that I would expect that we'll see them
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go up consistently for a period of time
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just closing this out where you mean
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there was a time where and you you make
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the point that a lot of the spin goes
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onto CTV and video there was a time when
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it was very easy for political spend to
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to just really Target meta YouTube the
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sort of big Platforms in terms of the
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breadth of spend that you expect to see
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both from the presidential election but
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also one level down you know in terms of
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State politics Etc do we expect now that
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things have gone more programmatic and
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presumably easier to buy smaller budgets
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that we're going to see a longer list of
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beneficiaries within the publisher
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Community uh I think that's I think
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that's right I think we'll see a longer
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list of beneficiaries and I think again
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the other thing that I'm not sure
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everybody realizes is while it is most
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in the spotlight in a presidential
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election year it is an always on thing I
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mean we have uh midterm elections but
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then beyond that you've got advocacy on
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different issues that happens um all the
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time uh and and so that really benefits
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a lot of players and and where it used
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to be a popping up a political team once
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you know every presidential cycle there
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it's now much more common that you've
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got political teams or dedicated
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resources across um platforms especially
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but to a lesser degree Publishers um who
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are doing that you know throughout the
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year and where it's it's actually
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somebody's job um but uh but yes the all
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the down ballot measures and and the
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other measures certainly should should
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uh uh I think it's already starting to
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benefit those just because of again
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higher sell through uh in different
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spots and uh and the concentration on
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CTV so um it it is a a much bigger
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opportunity for more players um for the
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players that are in it at least okay
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let's change directions a little bit
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away from political and talk about how
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two other trends that you identify might
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interact and one thing that you call out
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in your post is the rise of retail media
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networks which is is to be fair has been
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a trend for a couple of years now but
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it's really sort of peing the the other
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Trend that we know as occurring is uh
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privacy more potentially privacy
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headwinds for the industry particularly
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with Google third party cookie
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deprecation and the the reason I'm
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interested in this interaction is that
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retail media networks have you some
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particularly interesting data that
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they're always trying to leverage and of
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course they're going to be able to
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leverage it on their own and operated
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sites but as we think about their
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ability to leverage and extend it to
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other thirdparty sites the the Privacy
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could be a headwind to them being
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successful how do you see this
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interaction playing
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out so certainly those two things are
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absolutely related um because of of the
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push towards privacy that has driven
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this growth in retail Media or Commerce
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media networks um it certainly started
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as with retailers but really anybody
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who's got first Party Loyalty data um
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which you know travel Finance you know
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any vertical that's got loyalty data is
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is exploring this
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space um so it is it is absolutely one
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of the uh as you say not new but a a
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newer area of focus uh and priority for
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the industry because of the Privacy um
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uh shifts in privacy that have come from
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Google and apple as well as governments
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themselves
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um so you know you've got maybe to take
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a step back you've got players like
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Target who have been doing this for many
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years um but you've also got new
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retailers um and and again different
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categories Finance travel and others who
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have this first party data that are
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really getting into the space so uh
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Marriott and Chase have been very public
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about their their um entry here um Home
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Depot as well and we are certainly going
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to be seeing more of these in the coming
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months um and uh to the point on privacy
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what they usually do what we typically
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see is that they'll start uh uh with a
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white glove solution where they they'll
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go and and have a managed IO uh solution
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so that uh the retailer and the data
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owner starts to get comfortable as well
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with uh how does this work what are the
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demands how can we protect our ourselves
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and our users and our data and then over
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time uh they figure out what makes sense
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for them you know obviously what is you
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know what what is within the bounds of
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of um the laws and the policies that
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exist today as well as where they're
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going um but in a lot of cases I mean in
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all cases really they're they're very
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they're responsible data owners their
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relationship with their customer is
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really important to them so if they're
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going to leverage that and monetize it
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in a new way it's really critical to
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them that they be transparent about it
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um and that they be
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following both the letter and the spirit
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of of the law and the the shift to to
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privacy so um they're absolutely related
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they are um continuing to grow and I
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think that's going to to continue but
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the the mechanisms to do it and to to uh
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be respectful of the user and to really
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govern that data correctly uh they do
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all exist and it just takes usually a
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little bit of time to figure out what
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the right Solutions are each of those
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scenarios to make sure that everybody
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gets it right let me extend on that and
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ask you question where you may just need
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to completely speculate but the
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companies that you mentioned that have a
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retail media Network up and running
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they're committed they're all in and
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they're just going to be like trying to
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work out how to minimize some of the
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challenges from these privacy headwinds
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do you believe that there are now a
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number who uh had planned to start
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retail media networks but hadn't
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necessarily got to SC scale who would be
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looking at the current environment and
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sort of re-evaluating their plans second
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guessing whether it's really worth the
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commitment given these
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headwinds yes there are absolutely
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examples um I don't want to name and
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shame anybody but but absolutely you
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know what you described is has happened
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and uh I was talking to a friend who had
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worked for one of these these companies
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that had dipped their toe in hadn't
13:57
really fleshed out the whole thing got a
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little bit skittish and pulled back and
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when she went to work for another
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platform new went and explored exactly
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said hey here's what we did wrong before
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how have you solved these problems and
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didn't want to go join another one of
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these plays uh without being satisfied
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that they really were set up for Success
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so that has absolutely happened um and
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it's sort of to the point of you really
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need to make sure you get it right you
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want to be doing right by your customers
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you want to make sure the opportunity is
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worth all of the time and effort um uh
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but what we're seeing is that people are
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really finding that it is worth the
14:35
effort advertisers are interested in
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these audiences and these opportunities
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um and they're willing to go through the
14:41
hurdles because the data is really high
14:43
quality and you can you can really Drive
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meaningful outcomes with it so um I
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think all the folks who who you know
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classic question in a big company what's
14:52
different this time uh but I think
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there's a lot of there's a lot of data
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points now and and that we'll should
14:58
endure that show that it is different
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and that there is a path from here to
15:02
there and so I think we'll continue to
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see more folks who who may have pulled
15:05
back get back into it I'm I'm interested
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in that because that was that quation
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that question for me was pure
15:12
speculation I didn't realize you'd have
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specific example so thank you um one
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other area I want to get into the
15:19
intersection of two trends that you
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identify is that you you say m&a is back
15:24
and you point to to some examples and
15:26
obviously this a different trend is the
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rise of AI you can't have a conversation
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these days without talking about how a
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specific part of our business might be
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impacted positively or negatively by AI
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but as you think about that if you're if
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I'm a major publisher and adtech firm
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and I'm thinking about my AI strategy I
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expect the executive teams are under a
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lot of pressure from their board or
15:52
their owners or who basically whoever's
15:55
in position to ask them questions around
15:57
what is your AI strategy
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and I think a few of them may have been
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unprepared and so they're trying to play
16:03
catchup and so they may be looking at
16:06
Acquisitions to basically say yeah look
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look I'm doing things in AI now and so I
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always worry when I see a dynamic like
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that that uh when I see companies under
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pressure to do Acquisitions in a catchup
16:19
type of mode that um they could be
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pretty poor Acquisitions there might not
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be a good path for integration and that
16:27
it's actually uh can lead to a somewhat
16:29
problematic environment for the industry
16:32
so I guess the first question is you
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know I'm making a pretty strong
16:35
assertion that this could actually be
16:37
problematic how how do you see this
16:39
playing
16:40
out I mean look it didn't take AI for
16:43
companies to make bad choices and poor
16:46
Acquisitions um but certainly it it has
16:49
added pressure there so absolutely yes
16:52
that that uh uh can happen and you know
16:56
I arguably probably has happened but
17:00
time will tell because it's both the
17:01
acquisition but as you you you talked
17:03
about integration I think that's an an
17:06
often a an underinvested area and it's
17:09
one that we do help companies with um
17:12
because you you want to really get the
17:14
the most for your money when you um
17:16
after you go and and do all that you
17:18
know all that due diligence so um you
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know I think with any m&a decision you
17:24
need to go back to First principles what
17:26
are we trying to achieve how does this
17:28
play out where is this fit and then um
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you also need to make sure that the
17:32
incentives for the leaders are the right
17:34
ones I mean often I think that's where
17:36
it goes off off uh where where things
17:40
get lost is that um you know leaders are
17:45
incentivized to do a certain number of
17:46
Acquisitions and so they're just trying
17:48
to hit their target and it doesn't
17:49
matter if it's a good one or the leaders
17:52
need to check an AI box and and again
17:54
might not matter if it's the right one
17:56
so really looking for what what are the
17:59
the problems we're trying to solve and
18:01
you know if AI is one of them then then
18:04
finding the right acquisition or the
18:06
right way to to check that box um but
18:10
that that risk is absolutely there but I
18:12
don't know that it's any more present
18:14
because of AI than than it might have
18:15
been with with any of the other previous
18:18
Trends let's talk about where AI has the
18:22
most potential to positively impact the
18:25
business and there's a the Continuum in
18:28
terms of you know content generation I
18:30
saw that Yahoo recently acquired a AI
18:33
News company there's sort of um the
18:37
ability to positively impact ad creative
18:41
there's the ability to impact data and
18:43
analytics I guess two different
18:45
questions related to that one where do
18:47
you see the most ability for AI to have
18:49
a positive impact and then looping back
18:52
to what we just discussed on the merges
18:53
and acquisition side in the short term
18:57
is that the same place where we might
18:58
expect to see m&a
19:01
activity um so I think there's you know
19:05
you point to those two
19:07
sides I I almost think of the content
19:10
content generation I think of it both in
19:12
terms of you know creating news articles
19:14
for example as well as creative I would
19:16
put both of those things in the same
19:17
bucket um I you know there is a lot
19:20
there in a lot of ways I think of that
19:21
as smoothing workflow or accelerating
19:24
workflow so you know hopefully we won't
19:26
see a ton of AI generated articles per
19:30
se but testing headlines I think is a
19:32
really good example of AI saying hey
19:36
here's I read the article and here's
19:37
five potential headlines then having a
19:39
human go and and say I think this is the
19:41
best one or maybe even the AI takes it a
19:44
step further and does a little bucket
19:46
test and a little bit of AB testing of
19:48
the top five headlines and says you know
19:50
I came up with these five and here are
19:52
the two that tested the best um so I
19:55
think that um will help Drive engagement
19:59
um you know creative is kind of a
20:01
similar version of that of like which of
20:02
these does the does the blue or the pink
20:04
background work better um so I think
20:07
those can help improve the user
20:09
experience and the engagement on the
20:10
site but when you talk about
20:12
monetization it's really the U the
20:15
algorithmic side of things that that
20:17
really scale things whether it's cookus
20:19
targeting Solutions or uh you know ml
20:23
optimization or planning or measurement
20:26
Solutions I think those things really
20:28
can scale the business in a way that
20:30
nothing else can and you know and and
20:33
you know let's be clear um adtech has
20:36
been has been using machine learning and
20:37
other kinds of AI for since pretty much
20:40
the beginning it was always about the
20:42
automated buying and selling of ads so
20:44
um you know I think more than a lot of
20:46
other Industries we've all got um a
20:50
strong base in what is AI and where can
20:52
it benefit our business and um but in
20:55
again from a monetization perspective I
20:57
think it's going to be really leaning
20:59
into some of those um you know automated
21:02
algorithms that can scale the
21:05
monetization um and you know because one
21:08
cent CPM on a publisher uh can really
21:10
make a big difference as you know um and
21:12
I see that coming more from the algo
21:14
side than from the necessarily the
21:16
creative side but could be both but uh
21:19
so staying on that point in terms of how
21:22
disruptive AI might be is this a case of
21:26
it's just an evolution as you pointed
21:28
out adtech always had machine learning
21:31
and this is just the next iteration so
21:33
it's it's a r yes there's going to be
21:35
improvements but they're predictable and
21:38
business will continue as usual or is
21:40
this a case of true Revolution where
21:42
there's going to be some kind of Step
21:44
function and within 18 months couple of
21:47
years the industry won't look like the
21:49
industry looks now where do where do you
21:52
come out on on that
21:55
Continuum uh I mean certainly the
21:57
industry won't look like it does because
21:58
there's so many things that have changed
22:00
so um you know privacy being the single
22:03
biggest one but I think AI is going to
22:06
between privacy and AI is going to force
22:08
us to think about how we do business
22:10
differently and uh so it's it's a number
22:14
of different things coming together but
22:16
you know what's the same is that
22:19
advertising was always about getting the
22:20
right ad to the right person at the
22:22
right time and what technology has done
22:24
over over all this time is to to make
22:27
that more true and more accurate and
22:30
more valuable hopefully and I think that
22:33
we will certainly see an acceleration
22:35
that would be my prediction that uh that
22:38
that the ads become more valuable um and
22:41
that the user experiences hopefully will
22:42
will follow as well okay thank you if if
22:46
you think through the market trends that
22:49
that you've identified either we've
22:51
talked about today or or or others that
22:53
are in the list that you've identified
22:56
which do you think what the biggest
22:58
impact on your clients or to put it
23:00
another way what are they either most
23:02
scared by or most excited by so I'll
23:06
call out a few things the the the areas
23:09
of EXC you for a ranking though if you
23:11
if you do a few things sure fair enough
23:13
fair enough um so I mean listen the the
23:16
things the areas of excitement really
23:18
are around the areas of growth and the
23:20
two there are two double digigit areas
23:22
of growth in adtech right now that are
23:24
CTV and Retail media for a number of
23:27
different reasons some of we talked
23:29
about so everybody's excited about
23:31
CTV um and it's been really uh you know
23:36
I feel like my whole career in adtech
23:38
which as you said decades at this point
23:40
we've been talking about the share shift
23:42
of TV dollars and we've really seen that
23:44
happen and that's manifested itself in a
23:46
number of different ways and I've been
23:48
really I don't want to say surprised but
23:51
it's been very noticeable the extent to
23:53
which um relatively late entrance or
23:57
call them recent entrance to CTV are
23:59
really able to go and carve themselves a
24:01
market position and to H gain meaningful
24:04
share and win important Publishers so I
24:06
think that's that's an area that people
24:08
are interested in they're innovating in
24:10
and that Innovation is really driving um
24:12
opportunity growth and and powering an
24:15
emerging set of players retail media uh
24:19
in this current iteration of retail
24:20
media that started in the last two or
24:23
three years um where I think it still
24:26
hasn't played out yet but that's another
24:28
one where the data is really powerful uh
24:31
it's it was good data always and in the
24:33
first place and now it's uh becoming
24:36
available to be activated by more
24:38
players and so there's an opportunity to
24:40
innovate there um and and folks are
24:43
trying to really do a lot to uh to
24:45
attach themselves to that so I would say
24:46
those are the the two big ones um and
24:51
and then the third one which I the third
24:54
rank but the third one that's come about
24:57
um that's become really popular again is
24:59
curation so this is data plus media and
25:03
a PMP which is not a new idea but it's
25:07
um you know as different
25:10
buyers PMP just for those who aren't
25:12
familiar private Marketplace like a deal
25:14
ID y
25:16
yeah um yes good call good call out
25:19
there um uh so this is this is one where
25:24
um uh more buyers are really interested
25:26
in having that I I describe described it
25:28
as a ready to serve meal they're they're
25:31
looking to simplify a lot of other
25:33
complexities um of the buying and
25:35
they're doing it this curation uh has
25:37
really taken a big upswing in the last
25:39
couple of years there's a lot of net new
25:41
and unique spend that are coming that's
25:43
coming into the market with it and
25:45
there's a lot of players um as recently
25:48
as this year who have launched curation
25:50
platforms so I think that's a really
25:53
interesting Trend that you know as
25:55
people work through all the complexities
25:57
of the market and all the eer areas um
25:59
they're also looking to uh to to find
26:02
some Simplicity and curation is one of
26:04
those Trends as well um and on the flip
26:08
side what are they worried about I mean
26:10
there people are worried about privacy
26:12
there's apprehensions because there's so
26:14
many unknowns um there's you know we
26:17
don't know what all of the implications
26:19
for the buyers and the sellers are going
26:20
to be the Privacy sandbox uh apis are
26:24
are not even finalized at this point so
26:26
even though it's something that that
26:27
will living with um in the next six
26:31
months it's not something where the
26:32
standard is even finalized yet so a lot
26:35
of unknowns um and a lot of you know how
26:38
how does this evolve how does this
26:39
impact us um but there's there's really
26:43
nobody who that I've talked to who
26:45
thinks that we're not going to figure it
26:46
out so I think that's also something
26:48
that you know I like about this industry
26:50
in the space people people aren't scared
26:52
of change and they're not scared about
26:55
finding new Solutions and and I think
26:56
that's something that's that that's
26:58
interesting and that's exciting for the
26:59
future you know as we look at all these
27:01
areas that are clearly areas of
27:03
opportunity and growth also brilliant
27:06
and uh yeah I always ask myself why do I
27:08
keep coming back to this industry and as
27:10
you say there's a degree of optimism
27:12
because there are always challenges but
27:14
people always seem to find a way in the
27:15
space and I would love that I really
27:18
appreciate you taking the time Greg
27:20
thank you so much for for the time today
27:22
all right thanks James great talking to
27:24
you