Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 400 - 11/20/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to. Episode 400.
- 0:17Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast
- 0:20powered by. Rhythm, I am your.
- 0:22Host Josh. Applebaum What's going on
- 0:29everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday.
- 0:32We are rolling through our work week.
- 0:34Only a couple days left here today, tomorrow and then a.
- 0:36Huge, huge upcoming. Weekend here for college.
- 0:39Football in the NFL as we're getting kind of deep.
- 0:41Into the season here. Guys, so we're going.
- 0:43To see if we can post a winning day.
- 0:45On a Thirsty Thursday for today, I do have a three pack of sweats
- 0:49for you. Obviously, we have a huge.
- 0:51Thursday football game tonight. Between, as you know, the
- 0:56Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans, we've seen this line
- 0:58kind of go back and forth. And I just saw the total.
- 1:01Tick up a little bit. He was.
- 1:02Sitting pretty much 43 1/2. All day just got up to. 4444 1/2
- 1:07but I do have a play here. On the side.
- 1:08So stay tuned for a full. Breakdown of There's no football
- 1:12get your get. Your prime account.
- 1:14Ready to roll here for tonight and then?
- 1:162 plays in college. Basketball.
- 1:19I'm going. To money line a short favorite
- 1:20and a good sharp dog. To fave line move and then I'm.
- 1:22Going to take points. With a dog here and a big
- 1:25heavily. Back game with.
- 1:26A line move here for tonight. So 2 college basketball plays,
- 1:29one NFL play, and then also I wanted to mention a college play
- 1:33for Saturday night. I know it's a couple days away,
- 1:36but I want to hit on it today because last night we did the
- 1:39rhythm rundown. It was a Wednesday.
- 1:40Edition said a Thursday. Had to do it a day early but
- 1:44talked a lot. Threw a bunch of games with my
- 1:46buddy. Kate Harper.
- 1:47And we landed on one in particular that we.
- 1:49Both really liked, from a data-driven perspective, really
- 1:51good rhythm edge, and you probably want to jump on this
- 1:55now before you lose. The hook so I'll.
- 1:56Give you that gross disgusting hazmat play in.
- 1:59Prime time later in the pod coming up for Saturday night.
- 2:03Now looking back toward last night, guys. 1 and 2 -, 1.2
- 2:06units. Had a great hit with Miami,
- 2:08Ohio. Miami, Ohio Got.
- 2:10It done for the team member they went from.
- 2:12Dog to fave plus 1 1/2 to -2 1/2.
- 2:16They're up big. Then they pretty much coughed it
- 2:18up. It was a tied game and they
- 2:19really pulled away second-half third and.
- 2:21Fourth quarter, so Miami, OH. With a good. 37 to 20 victory
- 2:25for us, the frustrating one was Kent State.
- 2:29Because he beat the closing. Line there got Kent State.
- 2:31Plus 8 1/2. Did you guys?
- 2:33Notice they closed plus. 7 1/2. Some books even down.
- 2:37To 7:00. So we did our part.
- 2:38Got a great number. Diagnosed that move.
- 2:41And jumped on it at the correct time, but then up.
- 2:43Losing by 12 points, so they give up a touchdown late, which
- 2:46kind of sunk us for that one. But hey, tells us we got our
- 2:49finger on the pulse just. Couldn't get Kent State Golden
- 2:51Flashes to come. Through and then the other
- 2:54loser. In college basketball.
- 2:57There's a game that was pretty exciting to watch but came up
- 2:59short. Illinois.
- 3:01Illinois ended up losing 90 to 86.
- 3:03High scoring game, of course, but I really like the fact that
- 3:06Ken. Palm had Illinois by. 6.
- 3:09So to me your money lining a short.
- 3:11Favorite that's a pretty good edge, but I got a little worried
- 3:13because after the pod we. Did see Illinois go from minus?
- 3:173 1/2 - 3 down to 2 1/2. Or two.
- 3:20So that late money was. Breaking away from us and that
- 3:22was not a good sign. And Alabama ended up playing a
- 3:25really good second-half, pulling away.
- 3:27Illinois was up by 1. At halftime, I'm like.
- 3:29OK, we might we might get luckier eat by even though the
- 3:32late. Move was against us, but no late
- 3:34move ended up being the the right one there as the line move
- 3:38toward for further toward the Crimson Tide.
- 3:40Crimson Tide One. 90 to 86. So either way guys, one and two
- 3:44night. Assuming a bounce back.
- 3:45Post A2 in one night here for Thursday night.
- 3:48Now that being said. Let's start.
- 3:50Off with biggest game of the night doesn't mean you put 10
- 3:53units on. It, but it's the one that I'm
- 3:54most excited to sweat. Even though I'm really excited
- 3:56about these college games as well.
- 3:59But looking toward the bills? And the Houston Texans, 8:15 PM
- 4:02Eastern. Time kickoff.
- 4:05Let's set the stage. Talk split system matches.
- 4:08Line moves and I'll. Give you my play for this one.
- 4:10So bills come in seven and three on the year.
- 4:12They've won three of their last four.
- 4:14The only loser in there was a really weird one at.
- 4:16Miami or their big favorite and lost like. 30 to 13, but they
- 4:20did just beat the Buccaneers 44 to 32.
- 4:22Josh Allen, hope you didn't play him in.
- 4:24Fantasy. Because he absolutely.
- 4:26Just tore it up and he had six touchdowns, but they covered
- 4:28that. Game as a six.
- 4:29And a half point home favorite, you know, all the Texans, 5:00
- 4:32and 5:00. They've won three of their last.
- 4:344 They've won two. In a row with.
- 4:36Davis Mills. They beat the Titans 16 to 13
- 4:39last week, but. Good for us, Titans.
- 4:41Covered the plus 5 1/2. Now what are we seeing across
- 4:44the? Market well, this came open
- 4:45Buffalo as low as a 2 1/2 point Rd. favorite and that was a
- 4:49pretty early opener and immediately.
- 4:50Got bet up. Because we found out that CJ.
- 4:54Stroud would remain out. And it would continue to be.
- 4:56Davis Mills under center and the public also, regardless of the
- 5:00quarterback. Thinks this line is way too
- 5:02short. For Buffalo so. 80% of spread
- 5:05bets at DraftKings are. Laying with the Bills.
- 5:07Tonight, now the. Combination of the quarterback.
- 5:09Switch or I guess. You know, continued Davis Mills
- 5:13in. In place of Stroud, along with
- 5:15this massive public betting on Buffalo.
- 5:17We've not seen the Bills go. Up from -2 1/2 all the way up to
- 5:20-6 But what's notable? To me is that once we got to the
- 5:24key number of six, you really never.
- 5:26Got up to 6 1/2. And I was waiting.
- 5:28On this one, because as we were doing the Rhythm Rundown last
- 5:31night, it was bills plus bills -6.
- 5:33And we had a lot of system matches on Houston.
- 5:35I'm saying to myself, OK, public loves Buffalo. 80% of tickets
- 5:39let me try to get greedy. Let me wait out and try to.
- 5:41Get a hook there, A + 6 1/2. Well, I went to bed pretty late
- 5:45after. Sweating all the games it was.
- 5:46Still at six, I woke up this morning, I saw it creep down to
- 5:505 1/2 and it's been 5 1/2 all day.
- 5:52So. If you were like me, trying to
- 5:54wait for the hook on Houston. 6 1/2 never happened in a.
- 5:58Way that's a bad thing because you can't get the.
- 6:00Hook But it's also kind of a good thing because it tells you
- 6:03that there was a lot of money on.
- 6:04Houston. To 'cause that 6 1/2 never to
- 6:06appear and then the six to get down to 5 1/2 so over the last.
- 6:10You know, 24. Hours here.
- 6:12You've seen this line tick back. In favor of Houston. +6 down to
- 6:16plus 5 1/2. Now in the betting world. 5 1/2
- 6:20is kind of a dead number. It's kind of no.
- 6:22Man's land So the important thing for me is where is the.
- 6:24Next move, because if this thing were to get down to five,
- 6:28that'll be a. Great sign for Houston as the
- 6:30game. Day.
- 6:31Movement is is continuing. To break further.
- 6:33Toward the. Toward the.
- 6:34Texans. But if we see.
- 6:35Get back up to 6. Obviously, that's not a.
- 6:38Great sign for Houston. I would tell me.
- 6:39That Buffalo is taking in further money closer to game
- 6:43time. Now I'm looking at the current
- 6:44odds. Right now it's pretty much 5 1/2
- 6:47across the board and I'm really not seeing either side get.
- 6:50Juiced up so. It's pretty much -110 both
- 6:52sides. So in that regard.
- 6:54You know, between now and and. Kick off tonight 8. 15 PM
- 6:57Eastern Time. You know, that's something to
- 6:59keep an eye out. For, obviously I'm hoping it
- 7:00gets. Down to 5 cuz.
- 7:01That'll be further smart money. Breaking toward Houston, but
- 7:05either way, guys, I'm going Houston here.
- 7:07Now I love the fact that the late.
- 7:08Buyback is. Coming in their favor, +6 down
- 7:10to 5 1/2. I also love Houston in a bet
- 7:13against the public. Spot betting against the public.
- 7:16Going against the drunk guys at the bar who are pounding Josh
- 7:19Allen overs and pounding the bills and have.
- 7:22Every money line teaser and. Parlay tied with Buffalo well.
- 7:26They're getting 80% of tickets. That means Houston is very
- 7:28undervalued, only getting 20. Percent of spread bets, so great
- 7:32contrarian spot. Again, you wouldn't.
- 7:35Call this a reverse. Line move because you got to go
- 7:36off the opener. So it's more like a kind of buy
- 7:39back, buy low. Inflated dog.
- 7:41Contrarian. Play, but if you look at circa
- 7:4438% of spread bets. On Houston.
- 7:46But it accounts for 87% of spread dollars.
- 7:50So you're very contrarian at DraftKings, but at.
- 7:52Circa. Pretty good split there.
- 7:54Low bets, higher dollars with big, big preponderance of smart
- 7:58money out in Vegas in the desert.
- 7:59Taking Houston in the points, ideally at +6.
- 8:02Now you'll get some of these. System matches primetime dogs.
- 8:0518 and 16 against. The spread this year 53 percent,
- 8:091% ROI. They are since the start of.
- 8:11202159 and 142 ATS 53. Percent, 1% ROI.
- 8:17So they're kind of right where they're.
- 8:18Supposed to be or. Where they've performed last few
- 8:20years. But if you layer in a few more.
- 8:22Angles Conference Primetime dogs.
- 8:26So it's a primetime. Game you're.
- 8:27From the same conference. Here you'd be both from the AFC.
- 8:30Those teams are 17 and 9 against.
- 8:32The spread 65%. With a 24.
- 8:34Percent ROI this. Year and they're 121 and one O
- 8:371. ATS 55 percent, 5% ROI since.
- 8:412020 Now let's layer another angle here.
- 8:44If you're a primetime dog getting 5 1/2 or more.
- 8:48Which would be the spot for Houston?
- 8:49Here those teams. Are nine and five against the
- 8:51spread 60? 4% this season 22.
- 8:54Percent ROI and they're. 73 and 53 ATS 58%.
- 8:58With an 11% ROI since. 2020 Another angle to Lake Houston.
- 9:02Another. Feather in their cap would be
- 9:04the fact that. This is a low total game, I
- 9:07know. That just ticked up. 43 and half
- 9:08up to 44 and half, but still relatively low total.
- 9:12So dog low total for your amount of expected.
- 9:14Points scored makes it. Harder for that favorite to
- 9:16cover. You also get Josh Allen in the
- 9:18spot. He's only 25 and 20.
- 9:20Seven against the spread, 48% when favored by 5 1/2 or more.
- 9:25And then you. Also look at Josh Allen when
- 9:28favored by 5 1/2 or more in a. Conference game.
- 9:30He's only 16 and 20 against the. Spread 44%.
- 9:35Texans obviously probably want to keep this a lower scoring
- 9:37game. They do have the number one.
- 9:38Defense in the NFL, they're only.
- 9:40Giving up 16.3 points per game. Bills giving up 22. .9 points
- 9:45per game. Then you add in the rhythm
- 9:48system matches. I have three recommended plays
- 9:51on the Texans tonight. Rhythm plays are plus 3.9 + 2
- 9:57and plus 3.2, so if you can get obviously A6.
- 10:00Would be your best. Price I put in the +6 earlier
- 10:03today. If you track and sign up for the
- 10:05$4.99 a week best bets from Juice Real you would have gotten
- 10:08that 6. But now I'm looking at every
- 10:10book pretty much 5 1/2. I would wait.
- 10:14And hold out for a six if you can't get it and starts to
- 10:16creep. And get.
- 10:17Juice down to 5. Then maybe you want.
- 10:18To jump on the 5 1/2, but still you're getting 5 1/2.
- 10:21Rhythm says it should be about a field goal game, not a bad
- 10:24little edge. There in favor of Houston.
- 10:27So I'm on Houston plus. 6 Again 5 1/2 might be your best price,
- 10:31but you want to kind of shop around and.
- 10:33And wait it out. See if it maybe.
- 10:34Ticks back up to six, although I'm.
- 10:36Rooting for it to fall to five because I'll be further sharp
- 10:38money on. Texans The total, though.
- 10:41It was pretty much 43 1/2 the whole time.
- 10:44Some books got to 44 and came back down.
- 10:46And then just as. I started to record the pod it
- 10:48just got. Steamed up to 40. 4 1/2 Now the
- 10:52reason why I'm not. Playing it is he kind of got
- 10:54some angles on. Both sides like I.
- 10:55Would lean over now just because the late money is breaking over
- 10:58and typically game day money. Big bets come in limits.
- 11:01A raise that's kind of something or kind of a sign of.
- 11:04Further smart. Money in your favor, but listen
- 11:07to this. DraftKings has 57% bet. 67.
- 11:11Percent dollars on the over, but circa is 44% bet. 63% dollars on
- 11:15the under now primetime wonders. Have been good 21 and 1650. 7
- 11:20percent, 8%. ROI this year since the start of
- 11:232019 they're 211 and one 5258. Percent, 12% ROI.
- 11:27But then listen to this overs 52% this year they're. 85 and
- 11:3278, but when a low total of 44 or less, I guess now you're. 44
- 11:371/2. But still those low totals.
- 11:40They are. 35 and 25 to the over 58%.
- 11:43This year non division overs are 55%.
- 11:46This year, Texans, however, seven and three.
- 11:48To the under bills. 5:00 and 5:00.
- 11:50To the total. So they're pretty much down the
- 11:52middle. So again, prime time under, I'm
- 11:55always down. For a PT.
- 11:56Under but line is ticking up. And we have seen some of these
- 11:59low. Totals go over, so I think when
- 12:01you're looking at playing a cider.
- 12:03Total and you have. Kind of a bunch of angles to go
- 12:06either way I. Think the best thing to do is
- 12:08just lay off and not touch it. I will say Rhythm does recommend
- 12:13the. Over.
- 12:13I think they're around 45 points.
- 12:16So again. If you're making me.
- 12:17Gun to the head. Lean one way, I guess I'd lean a
- 12:20little. Over but.
- 12:20Again, I don't really want to take a prime time over so I'm
- 12:22not touching it. But fully admit.
- 12:25Looks like this late. Afternoon movement is breaking.
- 12:28Toward the over. But for me guys, let's hope.
- 12:30Let's hope a dog can bark. I got Texans +6.
- 12:33Hope you can get the 62 if not. 5 1/2.
- 12:35And try to wait it out. Now let's go over to some
- 12:38college basketball. Because we got a pretty good
- 12:40slate. Tonight around 35 games and I
- 12:42found a couple games that caught my eye so the first one that I
- 12:45want to hit on is a 7:00. Game here for tonight we got.
- 12:49The Pit Panthers playing. UCF.
- 12:52And technically this is. A neutral site game, although it
- 12:56is in. Florida, so it's kind.
- 12:58Of UCF quasi homecourt. What's normal to me?
- 13:02Let's set the stage here first with both teams.
- 13:03The Panthers come in. 4:00 and 1:00.
- 13:05Just crushed Bucknell 84 to 50 UCF.
- 13:08Knights also. Four and one.
- 13:10They just beat Oakland 8783. But to me this is all about the
- 13:14line movement it. Reminds me a little.
- 13:15Bit I know we're, you know, crossing sports.
- 13:17Here reminds me a little bit of that.
- 13:19Miami, Ohio dog to fave yesterday.
- 13:21Remember Miami, Ohio went from plus 1 1/2 to -2 1/2.
- 13:25Well, we're seeing the same. Sort of thing in favor of
- 13:27Pittsburgh. Tonight, so even though this
- 13:29game is down. In Florida.
- 13:30Not far from UCF, we opened. At a lot of shops.
- 13:33Central Florida. Around A1 or 1 1/2.
- 13:36Point home favorite or neutral set I guess technically.
- 13:39And now we flip to. Pit -1 1/2 and some books now
- 13:43juiced. Up even going.
- 13:44To two, so pretty clear we got a dog to fave line move on
- 13:47Pittsburgh. What I like about Pittsburgh?
- 13:50In addition, they're not contrarian, but they're also not
- 13:52popular. You have basically a. 5050
- 13:54ticket split at DraftKings. Public doesn't know what to do.
- 13:57Kind of a short number. Both teams are four and one.
- 14:00Do you do you play the? The favorite lane, a short
- 14:02number, or do you take the dog getting points?
- 14:04It's got the quasi homecourt. Well, public.
- 14:06Doesn't know what. To do here, however.
- 14:09Dog to fade, flip toward pit and if you look at the.
- 14:11DraftKings Money Line splits 48%, Bets 62.
- 14:15Percent dollars on Pittsburgh to win the game.
- 14:18Now in addition, you look at the Circa splits the spread at Circa
- 14:23out in Vegas, 40% bets 90. Percent dollars on pit.
- 14:27So Pitt has a good split. 5050 line move but a good money line
- 14:31split at DK and a good. Spread split at CIRCO.
- 14:35I money line Pitt. Got a -, 125 I believe that was
- 14:39I think fanatics, but some. Angles here to also.
- 14:41Like Pitt 1 is. Their defense like, hopefully.
- 14:44Pitt can really you. Know kind of stymie.
- 14:46UCF here tonight because. They're only giving up. 61
- 14:49points per game. UCF is giving up. 80 points per
- 14:52game. Their defensive efficiency ranks
- 14:5447th in the country versus 104th for.
- 14:57UCF, the effective field. Goal percentage.
- 15:00So can you make it hard on the other team?
- 15:02They ranked 17th in the country versus 171st for UCF and two
- 15:07point percentage allowed 15th in the country versus 180. 5th for
- 15:11UCF, so we have. A dog to fave line.
- 15:14Move on, Pit, we have. Good splits.
- 15:17We got a money line short. Favorite opportunity?
- 15:19Much better defense. I'm going with the.
- 15:21Pit Panthers, hopefully to. To earn a victory.
- 15:24Again, you hate to. Lay a 1 1/2 two they.
- 15:26Win by 1, you lose your bet. You lay a 2, they win by two.
- 15:29You push, so let's let's go money line.
- 15:32Short favorite here -125. Let's go pit Panthers next one
- 15:37for you. 9:30 PM Eastern Time tonight 1.
- 15:40Of the most heavily. Backed games tonight,
- 15:41Mississippi State and Kansas. State once again we.
- 15:45Got a couple good teams. Going head to head in this.
- 15:47One if you look at. Kansas State so far.
- 15:51And by the way. This is the.
- 15:53What is it? The Hall of Fame.
- 15:54Classic. So it's actually a neutral site,
- 15:56but it's taking place in Kansas City, MO.
- 15:59So it's kind of. Quasi Kansas State homecourt,
- 16:03but Mississippi State comes in two and one, they just beat
- 16:05Southeast Louisiana 7568. K State comes in four and O just
- 16:10beat Tulsa 84 to 80. Three kind of squeaked by him.
- 16:13But once again. Sharp line move at play here.
- 16:15We open this game with Mississippi State.
- 16:17Neutral site. They were favored.
- 16:19At one point and the opener minus. 3 1/2.
- 16:22Well, guess. What now?
- 16:23This line is down to 2 1/2. So what does that tell us?
- 16:27Tells us smart money here. Breaking toward K state.
- 16:29And the points going. From plus 3 1/2 down to plus 2
- 16:331/2 also if you. Look at the juice here.
- 16:35It's. Juiced up pretty heavily.
- 16:37On the K state. Side Plus 2 1/2 - 115 - 120.
- 16:41And I see Caesar's is down to 2, so pretty clear one way movement
- 16:45in favor of K state. Now K State at circa 80% bets
- 16:50over 90% of the money. Ken Palm is K State losing by 1.
- 16:54So if. We're getting a 2 1/2 with the
- 16:56sharp line move and a little bit of an edge going to bank on K
- 16:59state. If you haven't.
- 17:00Seen this guy play? PJ Haggerty, he's one of the top
- 17:04scorers in the country. He's played on 4.
- 17:06Different teams in four. Years, this is.
- 17:08New College. Sports in general.
- 17:10But TCU Tulsa. Memphis and now K.
- 17:13State and last. Three years he's averaged.
- 17:15Over 20 points a game so he could be a lottery pick.
- 17:19But anyway, K State has the better effective field goal.
- 17:23Percentage they are 7th in the country versus 111th for
- 17:26Mississippi State. Hope they're hoping that their
- 17:29three-point shot can fall because they are 7th in the
- 17:32country and three-point. Percentage 102.
- 17:35For Mississippi State, better free throw percentage is big.
- 17:38When you're in a tight game, but. 73% versus 71% and kind of
- 17:43a dog who can score system match like if you're going to if
- 17:46you're, if you're a dog and you're getting points, whether
- 17:48it's football or. Really any sport.
- 17:50Basketball. If you can, put up points and
- 17:52keep. Pace or backdoor cover, that's
- 17:54an advantage. Or you want to keep it low
- 17:55scoring and cover the game well. Here K state.
- 17:59They are averaging 90. Four points per game, 80 from
- 18:03Mississippi State. And again, it's technically a
- 18:05neutral site. But it's in Kansas City, which
- 18:07is not far from K State, which is I believe is Manhattan.
- 18:11But anyway, I'm taking the points here with K state plus 3
- 18:141/2 down to 2 1/2. Juice like it may go down to.
- 18:17Two Ken Palms got him losing by one better offense.
- 18:20Quasi homecourt advantage again. Shop around.
- 18:23I got plus 2 1/2. I think I got -110 a.
- 18:26Little bit earlier today. Looks like -1. 15 is your best
- 18:29price, but let's go K. State How about you win the
- 18:31game? Don't make a sweat.
- 18:33Losing by one or two. Let's go, K.
- 18:34State 2 and a. Half pit money line.
- 18:37And Houston? Texans +6 or. 5 1/2.
- 18:42Now one game that I wanted to. Just hit on because I really,
- 18:45really haven't talked. Any weekend games here?
- 18:47For college football. But as we were doing the Rhythm
- 18:50Rundown last night, myself and my buddy Kate Harper.
- 18:53We landed on a game that kind of got us both excited because it's
- 18:57so. Gross, but it looks.
- 18:59Pretty darn sharp. And a good situational spot.
- 19:01So Tennessee. And Florida 7:30 PM Eastern Time
- 19:05Saturday night looks like. Obviously, you got to take
- 19:08Tennessee, right? Tennessee is 7 and three.
- 19:11They're ranked 20th. In the country, Florida Gators
- 19:13three and seven lost for their last five.
- 19:16Fired their head coach. Tennessee.
- 19:18You know, going for. Obviously a College Football
- 19:20Playoff. Opportunity Florida really got.
- 19:23Nothing to play for. And Tennessee.
- 19:25Opened around -3 -, 3 1/2. We've then seen Tennessee get up
- 19:30to -4 1/2 and everyone's playing.
- 19:33Tennessee. Tennessee.
- 19:34Is getting nearly 70% of spread bets at DraftKings so public
- 19:38says Florida stinks this year. Tennessee is far better.
- 19:41Tennessee easily wins by, you know, five points or more.
- 19:45However. Once we got to Tennessee, minus.
- 19:484 1/2 over the last 24 hours we've seen a lot of sharp
- 19:51buyback on Florida, plus 4 1/2 dropping this line back.
- 19:55Down to 4 now. I jumped on the four and half
- 19:57with Florida. Couple reasons I like Florida
- 19:59here. Number one, you can train in a
- 20:01heavily bet primetime game. Is an ABC game. 7:30 PM Saturday
- 20:06night. They're only getting around 30%
- 20:08of tickets, but 70% of the money at DraftKings.
- 20:11You also have a unranked versus ranked opportunity and if you.
- 20:15Look at the current. Prices here.
- 20:16This is why I wanted. To at least.
- 20:18Mention this game today because I don't know how much longer the
- 20:22Florida plus 4 1/2. Is going to be up there.
- 20:24Because a lot of books are down to four.
- 20:25I see one book down to 3 1/2. FanDuel if you.
- 20:28Want to go gross Florida inflated buyback play?
- 20:32You can still get plus 4 1/2 -, 115 at Bet, MGM or Fanatics and
- 20:38ESPN BET is plus 4 1/2 -, 120. But everyone else is getting
- 20:41down to four. And really, to put the little
- 20:43cherry on top here, rhythm. Is a green.
- 20:47Star recommended Florida play, saying Florida should be plus
- 20:493.5 S 3 1/2 by rhythm. You can get a. 4 1/2 You're
- 20:54against the public. You're hopefully getting the
- 20:57best of the. Number Again, Tennessee's got
- 21:00aspirations here. To to go deep.
- 21:02And they got a big. Game against Vanderbilt coming
- 21:04up, Florida's kind of got nothing to play for other.
- 21:06Than to be a. You know, a spoiler, so maybe no
- 21:09pressure, maybe they lose, but can you lose by 4 or less?
- 21:12I put in with a good rhythm edge a play on Florida.
- 21:16Chomp chomp Gators Plus. 4 1/2. Just looks like a.
- 21:19Gross prime time spot. Opportunity.
- 21:21So I went chomp chomp 4 1/2. So that about does it for
- 21:25episode 400-4004 Hundo. Can you believe it?
- 21:30It's a nice little, I don't know, take a step back.
- 21:32You grind in the arena every single.
- 21:33Day and then you hit 400 pods. I'm kind of proud of that
- 21:36because the pod is. Almost two years old.
- 21:39At this point when I when I launched it.
- 21:42But anyway guys, this is the part of the pod where we wrap
- 21:44things up and I always start first by.
- 21:46Saying thank you. To you out there listening, I
- 21:49appreciate you. I appreciate you.
- 21:51Take the time out of your busy life, your day.
- 21:53I know we got a lot going on, but you devote. 2030.
- 21:55Minutes to breaking down some sharp plays across the market,
- 21:59whether you tail every play I mentioned or.
- 22:01Fade or pick and choose or sit. Back and like the breakdowns and
- 22:04maybe you'd find one play you like.
- 22:06Either way, I appreciate. You guys tuning in?
- 22:09So if you'd like to help me grow the pod.
- 22:10Enjoy the insights please. Could you give this podcast a
- 22:13five star review on Spotify or iTunes as well as?
- 22:17Leaving a nice comment. Under the Review tab.
- 22:20And recommending the pod to a friend or click the following
- 22:22button follow button. That also be.
- 22:24Pretty amazing next. If you enjoy the style of sports
- 22:28betting and you want to learn more about data-driven sports
- 22:30betting, I would love for you guys, especially with the
- 22:33holidays coming up, to go purchase my book.
- 22:36So I got a new book. Came out I.
- 22:38Guess I can. Still call it new.
- 22:39It's about 3 months old at this. Point, but it's called the NFL
- 22:42sharp. Betting playbook and wouldn't
- 22:43you know what, right? Before I started the pod
- 22:45triumph. Books.
- 22:47Which is my publisher. They put out this.
- 22:49Really cool tweet, they said. Get 50% off everything at
- 22:53Triumph. Books with the code.
- 22:54Cheers, 2020. Five at check out.
- 22:56This year has been hard enough. Let's make holiday shopping more
- 22:59manageable. Plus, stay tuned.
- 23:00For our gift guide recommendations so my book if.
- 23:03You want to get it on Amazon.com?
- 23:05Cost you 20. $4. If you go and buy the book.
- 23:09Directly from Triumph, my publisher and I tweeted this out
- 23:12at Josh under Score Insight. So you can just go to triumph.
- 23:15Books.com you search the Everything guide or the NFL
- 23:18Sharp Ending playbook you put in.
- 23:20Promo code Cheers 2020. Five.
- 23:23Guess what? The book is now $12.00, so
- 23:25instead of 24. It's 12, so if you are looking
- 23:27to. Support your podcast.
- 23:30You know, host here your, your your.
- 23:31Fellow author or your neighborhood author here.
- 23:34Or maybe you? Want to get it as a gift for
- 23:36somebody again? You're getting it half off with
- 23:39that promo code, so you can always just again, go to my.
- 23:41Twitter page at Josh. Under score insights and take
- 23:44advantage of that. But nice little stocking
- 23:46stuffer. Now you get it half off and you
- 23:48can bring. The NFL sharp betting playbook
- 23:51or the everything guy to sports betting mother book to the
- 23:53sports book I'll sign it for you I'll.
- 23:55Buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together.
- 23:58So next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice?
- 24:02Real yet? My 2.
- 24:03Favorite sports betting apps Rhythm and Juice Real.
- 24:05Help me win. They're going to help you win
- 24:06because. It's all based.
- 24:08On. Data and and making.
- 24:10Sharp plays with your head and not your heart.
- 24:12So in that vein, got to go download Rhythm for their AI
- 24:16back models and predictions for game bets.
- 24:17And player props. Then you got to go download
- 24:19Juice Reel as well. Juice Reel where there's.
- 24:22A lot of great. Features 1 you can.
- 24:23Support the pod. Get the all system to go.
- 24:25Best Bets? For. $4.90. $0.09 a week.
- 24:29And also get the Robo Jackson best bet.
- 24:31Picks the sharp mush. Indicators The arbitrage plays
- 24:33the shop for the best line features all available.
- 24:36When you download Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
- 24:38juice reel, give them a 5 star. Review in the App Store.
- 24:42Next, do you have a live odds page?
- 24:44If you don't. Have one you need one you got
- 24:46to. Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
- 24:50That'll give. You a 7 day free trial, 50% off
- 24:52your first month of service and Odds logic is the best live odds
- 24:56page around because it's got all the major.
- 24:57Books, including the Sharp. Global ones, first to post,
- 25:01first to move, and then you're going to be able to shop for the
- 25:03best line. Identify Steam.
- 25:05And shop for again getting the best price, getting the hook.
- 25:08Finding you know Gators plus 4 1/2.
- 25:11Instead of four 3 1/2. But once again, give it a shot.
- 25:14Odds logic dot. Com slash Josh. 123 for again 7
- 25:19day free trial, 50% off your first.
- 25:21Month. Next.
- 25:23Have you given a shot to Novig yet?
- 25:26Well, if you haven't, now is the time.
- 25:28Because Novig, you're going to get.
- 25:29Way better juice prices because you're going up.
- 25:31Against other betters in an exchange, not against a sports
- 25:35book or a house, Who's going to charge a -, 115 minus?
- 25:38120 on the juice, so you're going to get.
- 25:39Better Juice prices -1 O 5 - 1 O 6 plus one O 2 plus one O 4.
- 25:45And because of that, you can win at the same rate you would at a
- 25:47sports. Book, but make more.
- 25:48Money because you're risking less juice therefore you're
- 25:51you're you're taking more on the take back when you win but if
- 25:54you. Want to download Novig?
- 25:56And again, you when you do well, you're not going.
- 25:58To get booted. That's another advantage once
- 26:00you download the app, when you fund your account.
- 26:03You're just going to use the promo code.
- 26:04Josh 123 for 100% deposit match up.
- 26:08To 25 bucks. So that about does it for
- 26:10episode 400 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
- 26:14powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
- 26:16where I leave you with two final thoughts.
- 26:18One whether I see. You at the Borgata?
- 26:20In Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
- 26:22Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
- 26:26Encore in Boston. Plain Ridge Park Casino.
- 26:28MGM Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the woods and Nash
- 26:31border of Nashua, NH and. Massachusetts.
- 26:34Are out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where
- 26:36Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest.
- 26:38Juice possible is found. At the South Point or sweating,
- 26:41Sharp can train plays. Jumping in the stadium swimming
- 26:43pool when you cash a big ticket at at Circa.
- 26:46Or maybe you're going to walk up to me.
- 26:48Show me a nice Miami Ohio RedHawks dog to fave.
- 26:51Sharp line move and we'll be sweating some games here for
- 26:54tonight. So as always, guys coming off A1
- 26:56and. Two or a two and one and.
- 26:57O and three or. Three and OA good.
- 26:59Night A bad night a terrible night a.
- 27:01Fantastic night, mediocre grinding.
- 27:04Hot, cold, somewhere in the middle.
- 27:05We just got to stick with it, continue to play the system
- 27:08matches long term. Continue to be disciplined.
- 27:10With our bankroll management flat betting risking 1 unit per
- 27:13play but. If we can find the games that
- 27:14fit our model against the house. With the pros.
- 27:19Against the public flat bet no. Parlays get that CLV.
- 27:22If we can do that, we're going to be.
- 27:23Successful sports bettors. So have a great Thirsty
- 27:26Thursday, everybody. We'll be right back at it
- 27:28tomorrow for a big feed the feed the public Friday edition.
- 27:31That'll be episode 4 O one of the all systems go sports
- 27:34betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 27:37Good luck everybody and have a great.
- 27:38Thursday night.