Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / BI Weekend: Deere Earnings, Paramount, UFC Deal
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- 0:57Speaker 2: Today we'll look at al Paramount buying the rights to
- 0:59Speaker 2: UFC fights will impact it's streaming service.
- 1:01Speaker 5: Well, it's a look at earnings from the networking bell
- 1:03Speaker 5: Weather Cisco Systems.
- 1:04Speaker 2: First, we look at third quarter earnings from the farm
- 1:06Speaker 2: at machinery leader Deer.
- 1:07Speaker 5: This week, Deer reported earnings that beat analyst projections, but
- 1:10Speaker 5: the company trimmed its projected net income for twenty twenty five.
- 1:14Speaker 5: This comes as customers were made cautious due to trade
- 1:16Speaker 5: uncertainty and the health of the US economy.
- 1:19Speaker 2: For more, Lisa and I were joined by Chris Chielino,
- 1:21Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence Senior US machinery analyst. We first asked Christopher's
- 1:24Speaker 2: key takeaways from Deer earnings.
- 1:26Speaker 4: Listen, I mean, this really wasn't a particularly great quarter.
- 1:29Speaker 4: Three key results were mixed at best. It was really
- 1:33Speaker 4: a low quality earnings beat, primarily driven by a lower
- 1:36Speaker 4: tax rate. And as you alluded to, they did cut
- 1:39Speaker 4: their twenty to twenty five guidance, But to be honest,
- 1:42Speaker 4: I don't think that really changes the investment thesis here.
- 1:45Speaker 4: You know, we still expect earnings to bottom this year.
- 1:48Speaker 4: We're still looking at a very you know, gradual recovery
- 1:51Speaker 4: as twenty twenty six unfolds. The reduction in the outlook
- 1:54Speaker 4: was really driven by weakness in their construction business, and
- 1:58Speaker 4: it appears to us that it was really more of
- 1:59Speaker 4: a function of some of the higher tariffs and costs
- 2:02Speaker 4: coming through. We knew that construction forestry was really going
- 2:05Speaker 4: to bear the brunt of the tariff impact, but this
- 2:07Speaker 4: court just came in, you know, a little bit more
- 2:09Speaker 4: of a headwind that we anticipated. It doesn't appear to
- 2:12Speaker 4: be that there's been much of a change in terms
- 2:14Speaker 4: of you know, farm fundamentals and their appetite to go
- 2:17Speaker 4: out and buy equipment.
- 2:18Speaker 5: Hey, Qrich, can you get more into the struggle that
- 2:21Speaker 5: farmers are facing that that's impacting deer.
- 2:23Speaker 4: Sure, you know, we've been in this kind of prolonged
- 2:26Speaker 4: downturn in the ag ecotomy. Crop prices continued to deteriorate,
- 2:30Speaker 4: farm fundamentals remain weak, interest rates remain high. We have
- 2:33Speaker 4: the you know, the overhanger, the uncertainty around the trade
- 2:36Speaker 4: environment and export market access. Really there's really no signs
- 2:40Speaker 4: or i would, you know, say green shoots yet that
- 2:42Speaker 4: we're at this inflection point. I think the positive takeaway
- 2:46Speaker 4: is that, you know, inventories are coming down, deer's not
- 2:50Speaker 4: going to have to massively underproduce a retail demand next year.
- 2:52Speaker 4: So even if we're looking at a flatish type of
- 2:55Speaker 4: environment in terms of underlying retail demand. We're still looking
- 2:59Speaker 4: at probably higher production and some pricing coming through, which
- 3:02Speaker 4: should still generate some operating leverage in the business.
- 3:05Speaker 2: So, Chris, when demand is down for their core farm equipment,
- 3:11Speaker 2: what does deer typically do? Do they let inventories build?
- 3:14Speaker 2: Do they get promotional to move inventory out the door?
- 3:16Speaker 2: How did they usually manage that?
- 3:19Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is it's a delicate balancing act, right.
- 3:21Speaker 4: I mean, it's almost impossible to time the cycle. And
- 3:25Speaker 4: what they've been doing, you know, for the better part
- 3:27Speaker 4: of this year, and even at the end of last year,
- 3:30Speaker 4: they had been underproducing retail demand to bring down those
- 3:33Speaker 4: elevated inventories. They've done really a commendable job on new equipment.
- 3:37Speaker 4: The big issue right now is still on the used
- 3:39Speaker 4: equipment inventory side, particularly on tractors, which are still quite elevated.
- 3:44Speaker 4: And you're right, they are allocating more merchandising programs and
- 3:47Speaker 4: pool funds to help address that issue and move the equipment.
- 3:51Speaker 4: And I think you see that partly reflected in their
- 3:53Speaker 4: production precision ad business this quarter and pricing actually flip negative,
- 3:57Speaker 4: which was a surprise to us. It does appear that
- 4:00Speaker 4: this is you know, relatively transitory. We should expect pricing
- 4:03Speaker 4: to bounce back next quarter. But yeah, it's been a
- 4:06Speaker 4: you know, they've done a real good job of managing inventories.
- 4:09Speaker 4: It's just you know, when you're slogging along through the
- 4:11Speaker 4: bottom of the cycle here, it does become quite challenging.
- 4:14Speaker 5: So then I got to follo up, are you still
- 4:16Speaker 5: cautious about the pace of their recovery?
- 4:19Speaker 4: Yes, you know, I would say signs of a recovery
- 4:22Speaker 4: are still you know, pretty elusive to us. And if
- 4:25Speaker 4: you just look over the last couple of months, you know,
- 4:26Speaker 4: you continue to see further downward pressure on crop prices,
- 4:29Speaker 4: which at the end of the day is one of
- 4:31Speaker 4: the bigger drivers of deer's business and farmer cash receipts.
- 4:35Speaker 4: We had a pretty ugly WASDI report this week. You know,
- 4:37Speaker 4: it looks like we're going to get another year of
- 4:39Speaker 4: record corn production, so those stockpiles continue to build, which
- 4:44Speaker 4: is really going to keep a you know, somewhat of
- 4:46Speaker 4: a stealing on crop prices here in the near term.
- 4:48Speaker 4: So we think this recovery is going to look much
- 4:51Speaker 4: more modest or subdued than what we typically see during
- 4:54Speaker 4: a normal cycle. Right now, we're still anticipating you know,
- 4:57Speaker 4: a modest you know, flat to up five percent. Next
- 5:00Speaker 4: here in terms of underlying retail demand for lar Jack,
- 5:03Speaker 4: particularly in North America.
- 5:04Speaker 5: All right, thanks to Chris Chielino, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior US
- 5:07Speaker 5: machinery analyst.
- 5:08Speaker 2: We moved next to a conversation about the global fintech
- 5:11Speaker 2: company ny X. NYAX trades on the NASDAC under the
- 5:14Speaker 2: ticker NYAX.
- 5:16Speaker 5: The company is focused on payment software and devices for
- 5:18Speaker 5: the self service space where no cashier is present, and
- 5:21Speaker 5: the company recently reported second quarter profit that more than
- 5:24Speaker 5: doubled analyst expectations.
- 5:26Speaker 2: This week, guest host Normal Lind and I were joined
- 5:28Speaker 2: by nyak's chief financial officer, Segit Manure, and we began
- 5:31Speaker 2: the conversation by asking Segite for more background on what
- 5:34Speaker 2: NIAX does.
- 5:35Speaker 6: So we are actually the global leader in payment and
- 5:39Speaker 6: management solution for the unattended market. And what does it
- 5:42Speaker 6: mean unattended? It's really the vending machine massals chair ev
- 5:47Speaker 6: chargers when it's just you in front of the machine,
- 5:50Speaker 6: does not cashier in between. And in fact, if you
- 5:55Speaker 6: bought a drink in a vending machine lately at the JFKA,
- 6:00Speaker 6: you probably used one of our Nayaks Yellow devices. So
- 6:05Speaker 6: we have more than hundred thousand customers. We sell our
- 6:08Speaker 6: product in more than one hundred and twenty countries, and
- 6:10Speaker 6: we have a very simple mission statement to.
- 6:14Speaker 3: Help our customers grow the business. What does it mean?
- 6:16Speaker 6: Increase their revenue, decrease their cost and through loyalty, create
- 6:21Speaker 6: that stickness with our customers with their customers.
- 6:25Speaker 7: How do you stay ahead in today's fintech landscape? Of
- 6:29Speaker 7: course there's a lot of players now.
- 6:32Speaker 6: So actually in our area there's not a lot of competition.
- 6:38Speaker 6: I'm talking about the payment and in the unattended space.
- 6:42Speaker 6: So in fact, you know, we are the only global,
- 6:46Speaker 6: as I said, a player in this unattended space. It's
- 6:52Speaker 6: a very fragmented business and decentralized, so there's a lot
- 6:57Speaker 6: of small players and we are with our global solution
- 7:01Speaker 6: basically integrated hardware, payment and services all together, we can
- 7:06Speaker 6: bring that to the local market. It's also a very
- 7:09Speaker 6: highly regulated market, so there's a lot of barriers to entry,
- 7:14Speaker 6: so whether it's a regulation on payment, whether it's privacy,
- 7:19Speaker 6: and with our global solution, with us being there for
- 7:23Speaker 6: twenty years, we were able to overcome that. We look
- 7:26Speaker 6: at ourselves as a payment company, and what do you
- 7:28Speaker 6: need as a payment company?
- 7:30Speaker 3: You need basically three things.
- 7:31Speaker 6: You need the trust, you need the scalability, and you
- 7:35Speaker 6: really need the easy doing business. So from a trust perspective,
- 7:39Speaker 6: we build that trust over the twenty years. We have
- 7:42Speaker 6: a very strong brand. Look now for the yellow devices.
- 7:46Speaker 6: You would see that everywhere from an easy to do
- 7:50Speaker 6: business with it's again it's a bit to B to see.
- 7:53Speaker 6: So we have a very you know, it's a high
- 7:54Speaker 6: profile company. You go to whether it's the cow wash
- 7:58Speaker 6: to the vending machine and you see us. So B
- 8:00Speaker 6: to B it's all about regulation and we were able
- 8:05Speaker 6: to overcome that. When it comes to B to see,
- 8:08Speaker 6: as I said, it's in front of us and you
- 8:10Speaker 6: want that in a nanosecond to get your snack, to
- 8:13Speaker 6: get your coffee. So on scalability, this is where we
- 8:17Speaker 6: are focusing right. This is what takes time to build.
- 8:20Speaker 6: And we've showed that we are using more than eighty
- 8:23Speaker 6: distributors all around the world right, so we are setying
- 8:27Speaker 6: our products straight to the OEM. So when the vending machine,
- 8:31Speaker 6: the massage share, the kid ride are coming from the manufacturers,
- 8:36Speaker 6: it will already bring that NIX device.
- 8:39Speaker 2: Talk to us about the EV business electric vehicle business.
- 8:42Speaker 2: How are you guys approaching that? What is your expectation
- 8:45Speaker 2: for how that business will grow for you?
- 8:49Speaker 3: So great question.
- 8:50Speaker 6: EV is definitely one of the three main growth drivers
- 8:55Speaker 6: as we look into twenty twenty five and even beyond.
- 9:00Speaker 3: There was a few elements there.
- 9:01Speaker 6: It can be as easy as any unattended verticals that
- 9:05Speaker 6: we're already in and we're already working with the ivy
- 9:09Speaker 6: Goo Electrified America Electrifi Canada where we are providing the
- 9:13Speaker 6: payment device, but it can.
- 9:15Speaker 3: Also be where we are developed.
- 9:18Speaker 6: The management suite, the electricity management suite that has a
- 9:22Speaker 6: lot of regulations around it, and we were able to
- 9:26Speaker 6: accommodate that as well. And then for small businesses which
- 9:31Speaker 6: I haven't mentioned that, but most of our customers.
- 9:33Speaker 3: Are small and small and medium businesses.
- 9:36Speaker 6: That's where we provide the old solution, the hard well,
- 9:41Speaker 6: the management electricity basically as well as payment. So iv
- 9:46Speaker 6: we just signed announced the agreement with Hotel which is
- 9:51Speaker 6: a potential of one hundred thousand ivy charging stations to
- 9:56Speaker 6: be deployed in North America and also in Europe and
- 10:00Speaker 6: many other contracts like that. That shows the potential with
- 10:06Speaker 6: the fact that we are a global company, so it
- 10:08Speaker 6: can be done in France or in the state of
- 10:12Speaker 6: California and you have the same exact product all around
- 10:18Speaker 6: the globe.
- 10:19Speaker 7: Are there any particular market gaps or audiences that are
- 10:24Speaker 7: underserved that you're targeting right now?
- 10:26Speaker 6: So in the unattended space, which is the majority of
- 10:29Speaker 6: our revenue today, definitely there's a place on the EV
- 10:33Speaker 6: to grow and the electric vehicle charges, smart coolers is
- 10:37Speaker 6: a very fast growing area parking as well micro market,
- 10:44Speaker 6: So this is in the unattended, but we also are
- 10:48Speaker 6: stepping in into more of areas, like as I said,
- 10:53Speaker 6: the EV charger, that is beyond the payment or even
- 10:56Speaker 6: the retail. What we've learned over the twenty years that
- 10:59Speaker 6: we're doing business business with small businesses is that they're
- 11:03Speaker 6: still in the attendant, inside the store, inside the whatever
- 11:07Speaker 6: it is that you're selling does not a good product
- 11:11Speaker 6: for those small businesses, and we are extending that into
- 11:16Speaker 6: other countries as well.
- 11:19Speaker 5: Our thanks to Nayak's chief financial officer, Sagit Manor coming
- 11:23Speaker 5: up a look at where we are with robotaxis in
- 11:25Speaker 5: the US and the rest of the world.
- 11:27Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in
- 11:30Speaker 2: depth research and data on two thousand companies and one
- 11:32Speaker 2: hundred and thirty industries.
- 11:33Speaker 5: You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bigo on the terminal.
- 11:36Speaker 5: I'm Lisa Matteo and.
- 11:37Speaker 8: I'm Paul Sweeney.
- 11:38Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
- 11:43Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence with Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.
- 11:49Speaker 5: I'm Paul Sweeney and I'm Lisa Matteo filling in on
- 11:51Speaker 5: Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 11:52Speaker 2: We move next to some news in the media and
- 11:54Speaker 2: entertainment space.
- 11:55Speaker 5: This week we heard that Paramount has acquired the exclusive
- 11:57Speaker 5: rights to show all events from the Ultimate Fighting Chain
- 12:00Speaker 5: Championship in the US over the next seven years. It's
- 12:02Speaker 5: a seven point seven billion dollar deal designed to boost
- 12:05Speaker 5: Paramount plus streaming service for more.
- 12:07Speaker 2: Lisa and I were joined by Getha Ranganath and Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 12:10Speaker 2: Analysts on US media were first to ask Etha if
- 12:13Speaker 2: the UFC can be considered a good deal for Paramount.
- 12:16Speaker 9: No one saw this coming. I mean, the Paramount Skuydiance
- 12:19Speaker 9: transaction just closed last week August seventh, and we were
- 12:23Speaker 9: still kind of waiting for some inkling of what the
- 12:25Speaker 9: go to strategy or the go forward strategy would be
- 12:28Speaker 9: from you know, David Ellison's team. And here you go
- 12:31Speaker 9: with the bank, you know, paying almost eight billion dollars
- 12:34Speaker 9: for UFC rights. Now they are premier sports rights, so
- 12:38Speaker 9: they're definitely making a big statement here. Yes, you're absolutely right.
- 12:43Speaker 9: UFC has over one hundred million fans in the United States.
- 12:46Speaker 9: Their current deal is with ESPN. They were getting paid
- 12:49Speaker 9: about five hundred million a year, so this is you know,
- 12:52Speaker 9: more than one hundred and twenty percent search so it
- 12:54Speaker 9: is definitely a pretty penny And what Paramount is hoping
- 12:57Speaker 9: is that this really gets them onto the sports so
- 13:00Speaker 9: makes them a must have platform. And we're talking here
- 13:03Speaker 9: about Paramount Plus, which is their streaming platform, which is
- 13:07Speaker 9: known for really some great scripted content and some sports.
- 13:10Speaker 9: But this is really a big way for them to
- 13:13Speaker 9: kind of make a statement, make a really bold splash
- 13:16Speaker 9: on the sports streaming stage.
- 13:18Speaker 5: All right, KEITHA, I'm trying to take this in stride
- 13:19Speaker 5: because my husband is a big UFC fan, so he
- 13:23Speaker 5: watches it on ESPN. So does this mean that I
- 13:25Speaker 5: have to get Paramount Plus on time? Don't tell me.
- 13:29Speaker 6: That, GIP.
- 13:30Speaker 9: Sorry, Lisa, Yes, you do because everything all of the
- 13:34Speaker 9: UFC contents. So you know, what we'd initially thought was
- 13:38Speaker 9: that UFC was kind of going to split this packages.
- 13:41Speaker 9: You know, they have the Fight Night, which is the
- 13:43Speaker 9: weekly bi weekly kind of you know matchups that you see,
- 13:47Speaker 9: and then they have their big Marquee events, which are
- 13:49Speaker 9: the numbered events with you know, the likes of O'Connor
- 13:51Speaker 9: McGregor all these other big superstar players and you got
- 13:55Speaker 9: to pay out of your pocket for that pay per view.
- 13:57Speaker 9: They're actually now making all of that content, both the
- 14:00Speaker 9: market events as well as the Fight Nights, all available
- 14:04Speaker 9: to Paramount Plus subscribers, so there's no pay per view anymore.
- 14:07Speaker 9: But yeah, unfortunately your husband's going to have to subscribe
- 14:09Speaker 9: to Paramount Plus.
- 14:11Speaker 2: Well, this is what I think you do. Every streamer
- 14:16Speaker 2: you put on, you have to take one off, go
- 14:18Speaker 2: to the family. Okay, we're putting on Paramount Plus.
- 14:20Speaker 8: What are you giving back?
- 14:21Speaker 5: What are we giving back?
- 14:22Speaker 8: Yeah, exactly that's how you do it. Thank you, Gaitha.
- 14:24Speaker 2: What is realistically the buld case for Paramount sky Dance Corporation.
- 14:29Speaker 9: Yes, I think you know, we we really need of course,
- 14:32Speaker 9: you know, this kind of tells us that They're definitely
- 14:34Speaker 9: going to keep the streaming platforms. See some of the
- 14:36Speaker 9: some of the concerns Paul before, you know, before the
- 14:39Speaker 9: deal actually closed, was what is sky Dance really interested in?
- 14:42Speaker 9: So they don't really have any expertise in running TV assets.
- 14:46Speaker 9: All that they really cared about was the Paramount Studio
- 14:49Speaker 9: because you know, sky Dance is a big studio and
- 14:51Speaker 9: they were really really interested in the studio assets. So
- 14:53Speaker 9: we really didn't have any direction in terms of what
- 14:56Speaker 9: they were going to do with the cable networks. Viacom
- 14:59Speaker 9: has a bunch of those. You have the CBS broadcast network,
- 15:02Speaker 9: you have the Paramount Plus streaming platform. What this deal
- 15:05Speaker 9: signals is they're definitely interested in the streaming platform and
- 15:08Speaker 9: the CBS broadcast network because you know, they did say
- 15:11Speaker 9: that they're going to simulcast some of those UFC games
- 15:14Speaker 9: on the CBS broadcast networks. I think that is going
- 15:16Speaker 9: to be a core part of their portfolio. What we're
- 15:18Speaker 9: still not clear about is what they're going to do
- 15:20Speaker 9: with some of the cable networks. So you know, whether
- 15:22Speaker 9: it's a BET or an MTV or a Comedy Central,
- 15:25Speaker 9: we really don't know what the strategy is there. Chances
- 15:28Speaker 9: are they might look to monetize those assets, you know,
- 15:31Speaker 9: sell them. But really I think the big play for
- 15:34Speaker 9: a paramount is going to come down to make these
- 15:37Speaker 9: bigger and bigger investments. If they really want to be
- 15:40Speaker 9: a credible you know, streamer, they have to obviously go
- 15:43Speaker 9: after these big deals, which is exactly what they did
- 15:46Speaker 9: with the UFC. We'll have to wait and watch and
- 15:48Speaker 9: see exactly what their aspirations are, but it depends if
- 15:52Speaker 9: they're if they're willing to kind of make these big investments,
- 15:55Speaker 9: they could become you know, arguably one of the top
- 15:58Speaker 9: three or one of the top four platforms.
- 16:00Speaker 5: Our Thanks to Geitha Ranganath and Bloomberg Intelligence analyst on US.
- 16:04Speaker 2: Media, we've moved next to an M and A deal
- 16:06Speaker 2: in the apparel space.
- 16:07Speaker 5: This week, we heard that the Canadian clothing company Guilden
- 16:09Speaker 5: Activewear agreed to buy the US underwear maker Haines Brand
- 16:13Speaker 5: for about two point two billion dollars in cash and stock.
- 16:16Speaker 5: Gilden is aiming to double its annual sales with the transaction.
- 16:20Speaker 2: For more guest host Normal Lind and I were joined
- 16:22Speaker 2: by Abigail guildbartin Bloomberg Intelligence Footwear and ath leisure analyst.
- 16:26Speaker 2: We first asked Abbaga able to discuss who Guilden is
- 16:28Speaker 2: and why they're buying an underwear company.
- 16:30Speaker 10: I think a lot of people probably own Guilden and
- 16:33Speaker 10: don't know it right because it's really a basic apparel manufacturer.
- 16:37Speaker 10: So they create the T shirts that then they sell
- 16:39Speaker 10: to your favorite sports teams or to Walmart, and then
- 16:42Speaker 10: they put the logos on it. So they're heavily in
- 16:44Speaker 10: the printware space. They do have exposure to innerwear, which
- 16:48Speaker 10: is what Haines is, Haynes' is, you know, the basics underwears,
- 16:51Speaker 10: bras teas, and they used to be in activewear till
- 16:55Speaker 10: they spun off Champion, so they're very complimentary. Yes, they
- 16:58Speaker 10: spent off Champion about a year.
- 17:00Speaker 7: Okay, interesting and I definitely remember Gilden. As you mentioned,
- 17:03Speaker 7: when you just start to look into the tags of
- 17:05Speaker 7: your T shirts, you'll start to see the name pop
- 17:07Speaker 7: up there. But I mean, what's the latest with consolidation
- 17:10Speaker 7: more broadly in your industry. I know you have a
- 17:13Speaker 7: lot of names that you cover that are doing a
- 17:15Speaker 7: lot of mergers.
- 17:16Speaker 10: Yeah, definitely, I think you know it comes out of
- 17:18Speaker 10: time with tariffs and costs looming as well as I
- 17:22Speaker 10: mean for this acquisition, I think it's been considered for
- 17:25Speaker 10: a while as actually there was a whole proxy battle
- 17:28Speaker 10: about it a few years ago where they actually ousted
- 17:30Speaker 10: the CEO over it, and then he has returned since
- 17:34Speaker 10: then and they completely changed the board over So this
- 17:38Speaker 10: didn't come completely out of nowhere. But I think it
- 17:41Speaker 10: makes a lot of sense just in terms of, you know,
- 17:42Speaker 10: Gilden's building out their whole manufacturing footprint and it's once
- 17:46Speaker 10: again really complimentary. They already kind of make everything that
- 17:49Speaker 10: Haines does, but on a larger scale at a lower cost.
- 17:52Speaker 2: And Haines Brand's based in Winston Salem, North Carolina. Yeah,
- 17:56Speaker 2: I'm sure Sarah talk to us about you mentioned the tariffs.
- 18:00Speaker 2: How is it impacting your world, because I would think
- 18:02Speaker 2: that would be immediate.
- 18:03Speaker 10: Yes, so it definitely is impacting my world with you know,
- 18:06Speaker 10: the footwear brands, but for Guilden and Haines. Actually, Guilden
- 18:09Speaker 10: is one of the largest users of US cotton, so yes,
- 18:13Speaker 10: they are probably one of the largest ones, and so
- 18:17Speaker 10: that is actually going to help them not have to
- 18:19Speaker 10: deal with as many tariff costs just since products are
- 18:22Speaker 10: made with US cotton, so they're subject to a lower
- 18:24Speaker 10: teriff rate, so that's actually something that they can benefit from.
- 18:27Speaker 10: They also are less exposed to Asia and more in
- 18:30Speaker 10: Central America as well as Haynes Brands. Their manufacturing footprints
- 18:34Speaker 10: are very complementary and overlap, so they'll be able to
- 18:37Speaker 10: kind of mitigate that pretty well. But for Haines Brands,
- 18:41Speaker 10: its Guilden gives them a much more financial stability and opportunity.
- 18:46Speaker 5: For that our thanks to Abigail gil Martin Bloomberg Intelligence,
- 18:49Speaker 5: Footwear and at the Leisure Analyst.
- 18:51Speaker 2: Each week we look at research from Bloomberg and EF
- 18:54Speaker 2: previously known as New Energy Finance.
- 18:55Speaker 5: They're the team at Bloomberg that tracks and analyzes the
- 18:58Speaker 5: energy transition from commodities to transport, industries, buildings, and agriculture sectors.
- 19:03Speaker 2: This week we look at the autonomous vehicles robotaxis. Guest
- 19:07Speaker 2: host Normal Linden and I were joined by Andrew Grant
- 19:09Speaker 2: be n EF, head of Intelligent Mobility.
- 19:11Speaker 5: He discussed what's happening in the robotaxi space and some
- 19:14Speaker 5: of the hot battlegrounds for developers.
- 19:16Speaker 2: I began by asking Andrew where we are with robotaxis
- 19:18Speaker 2: in the US. And the rest of the world.
- 19:20Speaker 11: Wouldn't it be a great way to have a way
- 19:22Speaker 11: to measure the progress that we have on the robotaxi
- 19:26Speaker 11: side and the self driving vehicle side. Sometimes it could
- 19:28Speaker 11: be quite difficult to monitor the sector, and there's a
- 19:32Speaker 11: lot of promises made and there's a lot happening in
- 19:34Speaker 11: the kind of AI black box, and what we try
- 19:37Speaker 11: to do is measure things that you can actually see
- 19:41Speaker 11: and count. So we've been looking at some real operational
- 19:44Speaker 11: statistics that have been coming out from some of the
- 19:47Speaker 11: robotaxi companies and coming up with a way to grade
- 19:50Speaker 11: how serious an operation is. Can are these projects actually
- 19:54Speaker 11: operating on public roads? Are they offering their rides to
- 19:57Speaker 11: the general public or do you need to be on
- 19:59Speaker 11: a selective weight lift? Are they putting their money where
- 20:01Speaker 11: their mouths are and charging a fee for the service?
- 20:05Speaker 11: Do they actually have a safety driver in the vehicle
- 20:08Speaker 11: or human still supervising in the vehicle or have they
- 20:11Speaker 11: pulled that? And are they able to operate in all
- 20:14Speaker 11: weather conditions twenty four hours a day, seven days a week.
- 20:17Speaker 11: And if they kind of score five out of five
- 20:19Speaker 11: in our grade, that's a fully functional operational robotaxi service.
- 20:24Speaker 11: We counted out eight of those operating different cities around
- 20:27Speaker 11: around the world, I should say around the world. At
- 20:29Speaker 11: the moment, it's just China in the US.
- 20:31Speaker 7: Okay, so we're seeing China in the US as the
- 20:34Speaker 7: two leaders here.
- 20:35Speaker 11: Yeah, at the moment we have of four companies that
- 20:39Speaker 11: have met those grades. We do have another sixteen projects
- 20:43Speaker 11: that are kind of four out of five on our
- 20:47Speaker 11: ranking metric there. I should mention that Tesla just gets too.
- 20:50Speaker 11: But a lot of these companies are looking to expand
- 20:53Speaker 11: outside their home markets, certainly expanding to places like Singapore
- 20:58Speaker 11: and Middle East and UAE, and then of course Europe,
- 21:02Speaker 11: which at the moment there's regulations that are kind of
- 21:04Speaker 11: previncing a wider spread rollout of robotaxis. But a lot
- 21:07Speaker 11: of these companies are targeting twenty twenty six for deployment
- 21:11Speaker 11: across a number of European cities.
- 21:14Speaker 2: So who are the leaders here at this early stage.
- 21:17Speaker 11: I mean, really, you're talking about Weimer with the most
- 21:20Speaker 11: projects that meet out grading of fully operational robotaxi services.
- 21:25Speaker 11: But from the Chinese automakers, the China robotaxi developer side,
- 21:31Speaker 11: you're also talking about by do we ride ponyai that
- 21:34Speaker 11: are scoring highly on these metrics and looking to expand.
- 21:38Speaker 7: What are some of the regulatory hurdles here? Are there
- 21:41Speaker 7: any areas, in particular in the United States where it's
- 21:44Speaker 7: a bit more open season.
- 21:46Speaker 11: It's a very complex regulatory environment at the moment because
- 21:49Speaker 11: you can kind of have these national federal level ambitions,
- 21:55Speaker 11: but really it comes down to not just even state level,
- 21:59Speaker 11: but down to city level, where you need to work
- 22:01Speaker 11: really closely with a lot of these regulators to deploy
- 22:03Speaker 11: these services in a tightly geffinced environment. So you need
- 22:08Speaker 11: to be actively if you're a robotaxy developer, you need
- 22:10Speaker 11: to be actively talking to a lot of these regulators
- 22:13Speaker 11: and helping them understand what you're trying to do and
- 22:16Speaker 11: how you're trying to complement what they want to do
- 22:18Speaker 11: on the public transport side or on they transport infrastructure
- 22:21Speaker 11: side to make this work and make it a valuable
- 22:23Speaker 11: project for both for both entities. So I always describe
- 22:28Speaker 11: the regulatory environment it's very iterative. You kind of need
- 22:32Speaker 11: to take one box, proved to your regulators how you're doing,
- 22:35Speaker 11: and then continue to grow that relationship and kind of
- 22:38Speaker 11: build the regulations with them, and a lot of knowledge
- 22:41Speaker 11: exchange needs to happen as you progress.
- 22:45Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just looking at yourself driving vehicle tractor at
- 22:48Speaker 2: wwwwna dot com. Have to be a Bloomberg terminal user,
- 22:51Speaker 2: I believe, yes, but very very cool. It's an interactive
- 22:55Speaker 2: kind of model showing you where around the world. So
- 22:58Speaker 2: what are the gating issues here? Andrew? It's for fuller
- 23:02Speaker 2: and fuller deployment going out over the next several years.
- 23:05Speaker 2: Is it regulatory? Is it technology? Is it capital? What
- 23:11Speaker 2: are the key drivers for just I guess adoption over
- 23:14Speaker 2: the next seple years.
- 23:15Speaker 11: I mean, we talk a lot about the technology and
- 23:16Speaker 11: the regulatory side, and both need to improve, and I
- 23:19Speaker 11: think both will. What's probably doesn't get enough attention, and
- 23:22Speaker 11: we're starting to see a lot more focus on that.
- 23:24Speaker 11: At the moment. Is just the value chain really starting
- 23:27Speaker 11: to take shape. Building a car, building the software and
- 23:32Speaker 11: the related hardware that goes into powering a self driving vehicle,
- 23:36Speaker 11: matching the vehicle with users owning the vehicle. These are
- 23:41Speaker 11: all things that have different skill sets from a company perspective.
- 23:45Speaker 11: They have different capital requirements, and they have different paid
- 23:47Speaker 11: back periods. So we're starting to see different roles for
- 23:51Speaker 11: in this part of value chain. You're seeing the many
- 23:54Speaker 11: deals that say Uber has signed over the last eighteen months.
- 23:58Speaker 11: They've signed deals with at least ten different self driving
- 24:01Speaker 11: vehicle developers across the taxi and truck space and the
- 24:05Speaker 11: delivery blot space, I should say as well. And they're
- 24:08Speaker 11: really trying to put the best foot forward to borrow
- 24:13Speaker 11: the Jeff Bezos expression just focus on what makes the
- 24:16Speaker 11: beer taste better and really specialize in the different areas.
- 24:20Speaker 11: So we're really starting to see a more robust and
- 24:22Speaker 11: definitive shape form for the robotaxidatty chain.
- 24:25Speaker 5: Our thanks to Andrew Grant being af head of intelligent
- 24:28Speaker 5: mobility coming up and in depth look at Treasury Secretary
- 24:31Speaker 5: Scott Bessen then his role in the Trump administration.
- 24:34Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing research
- 24:37Speaker 2: and data on two thousand companies in one hundred and
- 24:39Speaker 2: thirty industries.
- 24:40Speaker 5: You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Big on the terminal.
- 24:43Speaker 5: I'm Lisa Matteo and Paul Sweeney.
- 24:45Speaker 8: This is Bloomberg.
- 24:53Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence with Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.
- 25:00Speaker 5: And I'm Lisa Matteo filling in on Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 25:03Speaker 2: We move next to news from the networking Bill Weather
- 25:05Speaker 2: Cisco Systems. This week, Cisco reported fourth quarter earnings that
- 25:09Speaker 2: narrowly beat analyst expectations.
- 25:10Speaker 5: The company also gave a forecast for the current fiscal year,
- 25:13Speaker 5: with sales between fifty nine and sixty billion dollars. That's
- 25:16Speaker 5: roughly in line with analysts expectations, and the lukewarm forecast
- 25:20Speaker 5: disappointed investors who hoped for a boost from massive AI
- 25:23Speaker 5: data center projects.
- 25:25Speaker 2: For more on ess, Lisa and I were joined by
- 25:26Speaker 2: wou Jinho, Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analysts. The first ask
- 25:30Speaker 2: Wooje for his takeaways on Cisco earnings.
- 25:33Speaker 12: At the end of the day, the guidance was a
- 25:35Speaker 12: reminder that they are still tied to IT spending, and
- 25:39Speaker 12: you know, I viewed it as more as prudent conservatism
- 25:42Speaker 12: because they don't know what's happening on the second half
- 25:44Speaker 12: of the year given where we are, you know, we
- 25:48Speaker 12: have little visibility in terms of rates as well as
- 25:50Speaker 12: tire still.
- 25:52Speaker 2: So the company recognized about one billion dollars in AI
- 25:55Speaker 2: revenue on fiscal twenty twenty five, and I guess AI
- 25:59Speaker 2: infrastructure or for large from large cloud of providers who
- 26:02Speaker 2: are over eight hundred million in the quarter. So where
- 26:05Speaker 2: do we think these numbers can go?
- 26:07Speaker 12: Yeah, Look, Paul, they forecasted a billion dollars in orders
- 26:12Speaker 12: for fiscal twenty five. They double that in fiscal twenty six.
- 26:15Speaker 12: Recognize the billion of it this year. I wouldn't be
- 26:19Speaker 12: surprised if AI revenues grow at least another fifty percent
- 26:23Speaker 12: from here. And they're penetrating multiple pockets right not only
- 26:27Speaker 12: into the cloud, but if you think about a longer term,
- 26:30Speaker 12: when enterprise adoption really starts kicking in, there is going
- 26:33Speaker 12: to be a growth driver.
- 26:34Speaker 1: So we have to.
- 26:36Speaker 12: See where it'll be in twenty six and twenty seven
- 26:39Speaker 12: when enterprise grows. But the partnership with then video should
- 26:42Speaker 12: be beneficial to the longer term.
- 26:44Speaker 5: What is it AI sector? Is it just to competitive?
- 26:47Speaker 5: I mean, who are some of their peers? How are
- 26:49Speaker 5: they doing against them?
- 26:51Speaker 12: Well, if we think about it, well, they have multiple
- 26:55Speaker 12: they're in AI in multiple vectors right, so from a
- 26:58Speaker 12: networking space as one of the bigger competitors, as well
- 27:02Speaker 12: as a smaller company called Celestica from they also they're
- 27:06Speaker 12: also very very big on optical components, and they're coming
- 27:10Speaker 12: up against companies like Marvel as well as Siena, and
- 27:16Speaker 12: they also provide AI servers, and think about Dell and HPE.
- 27:21Speaker 12: So look, is it competitive, yes, but they're one of
- 27:26Speaker 12: the few American vendors that can actually supply components all
- 27:30Speaker 12: the way to the system hardware.
- 27:32Speaker 2: Which what what are companies like Cisco and and Dell
- 27:35Speaker 2: and some other big American companies throughout the tech stack chain?
- 27:39Speaker 2: What are they saying just about the environment in terms
- 27:42Speaker 2: of demand from their customers. Are they sensing waning demand
- 27:46Speaker 2: or wavering demand? Just to see how some of these
- 27:49Speaker 2: I don't know, teriffs other economic policies may work out.
- 27:52Speaker 12: Sure, Paul, you know, Cisco is one of the first
- 27:55Speaker 12: hardware belt weathers that came out. I will tell you
- 27:58Speaker 12: from from the numbers that I've seen on the companies
- 28:02Speaker 12: that have reported, you know, the IT spending environment has
- 28:05Speaker 12: actually been more resilient than I had thought. I went
- 28:08Speaker 12: into the quarter with my mediar outlook as being a
- 28:11Speaker 12: little bit cautious and negative, and quite frankly, the results
- 28:16Speaker 12: have come in better than I anticipated. The outlooks have
- 28:19Speaker 12: come in better than I anticipated. But the fact of
- 28:21Speaker 12: the matter is, I don't know what's going to happen
- 28:23Speaker 12: past December, and I think the Cisco's guidance reflect that.
- 28:26Speaker 12: We'll have a better sense in a couple of weeks
- 28:28Speaker 12: from now when companies like Dell and then HPE after
- 28:31Speaker 12: Labor Day when they.
- 28:32Speaker 5: Report, did they talk about their guidance at all about
- 28:35Speaker 5: the impacts? We mentioned tariff quickly, but did the impact
- 28:38Speaker 5: of tariffs? If so, like, how do they intend to
- 28:40Speaker 5: lessen that impact from tariffs?
- 28:42Speaker 12: You know, you know, Cisco has been probably one of
- 28:45Speaker 12: the better companies in terms of managing expectations of tariffs
- 28:50Speaker 12: as well as maneuvering the supply chain with the tariff.
- 28:54Speaker 12: So in terms of managing expectations, they embedded tariff impact
- 28:58Speaker 12: in their guidance, and because came in a little bit
- 29:01Speaker 12: lower than we had anticipated, that actually helped the EPs
- 29:05Speaker 12: just a little bit going forward.
- 29:08Speaker 8: You know, all of the guidance.
- 29:10Speaker 12: Includes the tariff impact. Now, the one thing I will add,
- 29:15Speaker 12: we're still waiting for the semiconductor rulings as it relates
- 29:18Speaker 12: to Section two three to two. We'll see where it stands.
- 29:22Speaker 12: If we do have a negative ruling there, that could
- 29:25Speaker 12: not only affect Cisco's guidance and margins, but also the
- 29:29Speaker 12: rest of the electronics space.
- 29:31Speaker 5: All right, thanks to Woo Jinho, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior technology analyst.
- 29:35Speaker 2: This week we focus on a Bloomberg Big Takes story
- 29:37Speaker 2: entitled Scott Bessant on Taris, deficis and Trump's Economic Plan.
- 29:42Speaker 5: You can find it on Bloomberg dot Com and The Terminal.
- 29:45Speaker 5: It's also the cover story this week for the Bloomberg
- 29:47Speaker 5: Business Week magazine.
- 29:48Speaker 2: The story looks at how US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson
- 29:51Speaker 2: has the ear of President Donald Trump and why nervous
- 29:54Speaker 2: investors worldwide hope it stays that way.
- 29:56Speaker 5: Bloomberg's Eric Shatsker and Daniel Flatley co wrote the story,
- 30:00Speaker 5: and we're part of the team that recently interviewed Besson.
- 30:03Speaker 8: Earlier in the week.
- 30:03Speaker 2: Guest host Norman lind and I were joined by Eric Schatsker,
- 30:06Speaker 2: editorial director for a Bloomberg New Economy. We began the
- 30:09Speaker 2: conversation by asking Eric for his key takeaways from the
- 30:11Speaker 2: best in interview.
- 30:12Speaker 8: Well, first of all, the man is unbelievably busy. Spent
- 30:16Speaker 8: a day at the Treasury Department with alcoholague, Dan Flatley
- 30:20Speaker 8: and to observe how much he gets done in the
- 30:23Speaker 8: course of the day, including spending an extended amount of
- 30:26Speaker 8: time with US gives you a window into the life
- 30:29Speaker 8: of the Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration. And it's
- 30:31Speaker 8: important to emphasize in the Trump administration because this particular
- 30:35Speaker 8: Treasury secretary has been given a whole host of responsibilities
- 30:38Speaker 8: that go beyond that of the typical Treasury secretary. We
- 30:42Speaker 8: know that the Treasury secretary in any administration is involved
- 30:45Speaker 8: in tax policy, is involved in economic sanctions, is involved
- 30:48Speaker 8: in financial regulation and the like. But President Trump has
- 30:51Speaker 8: tasked Scott Besson with trade negotiations, with striking and not
- 30:56Speaker 8: just any old trade negotiations China perhaps the most difficult
- 31:00Speaker 8: negotiation of all, Japan, which was successful, South Korea, which
- 31:04Speaker 8: was successful, in Indonesia, the list goes on. He's also
- 31:08Speaker 8: the acting IRS Commissioner. He also crafted the deal that
- 31:12Speaker 8: the very novel and original deal that the United States
- 31:15Speaker 8: struck with Ukraine for a share of that country's mineral
- 31:19Speaker 8: resource wealth back in April. These are not and furthermore,
- 31:22Speaker 8: I have to add he was instrumental in getting the
- 31:25Speaker 8: One Big Beautiful Bill through opposition in both among Republicans
- 31:30Speaker 8: in both the House and the Senate in order to
- 31:32Speaker 8: meet the president's self imposed July fourth deadline. So Scott
- 31:36Speaker 8: Besson has taken on way more than your traditional Treasury
- 31:40Speaker 8: secretary does, and much of that is because the President
- 31:43Speaker 8: himself has asked him to do so.
- 31:46Speaker 7: And it seems as though a lot of people see
- 31:48Speaker 7: Beson as really having the president's ear here. And this
- 31:51Speaker 7: is a really fantastic story. Okay, what was the most
- 31:54Speaker 7: surprising element through your conversation with him?
- 31:57Speaker 11: Oh?
- 31:57Speaker 8: Well, there's so many surprises. Say that the thing I
- 32:01Speaker 8: didn't fully appreciate and which he spelled out for us
- 32:05Speaker 8: and which others spelled out for us, is the degree
- 32:08Speaker 8: to which this is something he sought after going back
- 32:12Speaker 8: many years. Besen told us that he thought about joining
- 32:16Speaker 8: the Trump campaign as early as twenty sixteen, but at
- 32:19Speaker 8: that time he just started a new hedge fund, Key
- 32:21Speaker 8: Square Group, and he didn't feel like he could abandon
- 32:24Speaker 8: his employees or abandon his clients. But what he did
- 32:27Speaker 8: do was start to get to know the people close
- 32:30Speaker 8: to Trump almost immediately thereafter, starting with Steve Bannon and
- 32:35Speaker 8: subsequently Peter Navarro, Stephen Moore, Kevin Hassett. For example, Trump's
- 32:40Speaker 8: close economic advisors Art Laffer. He went down to see
- 32:44Speaker 8: Art Laugher in the South, made a pilgrimage of starts
- 32:48Speaker 8: to get Art Laugher's blessing for his ambitions to become
- 32:53Speaker 8: Treasury secretary, and these he didn't make known to Trump
- 32:58Speaker 8: until November of twenty two, three throws, so it was
- 33:00Speaker 8: almost a six year period in which he was maneuvering
- 33:04Speaker 8: to position himself that for a shot at Treasury secretary.
- 33:07Speaker 8: And when he saw Trump in that November twenty twenty
- 33:11Speaker 8: three meeting at mar A Lago, Trump asked him if
- 33:13Speaker 8: he wanted the job, if he was interested in being
- 33:16Speaker 8: fed chair, and Besen said, no, I have another job
- 33:18Speaker 8: in mind. Very good.
- 33:21Speaker 2: The Street Eric gives Scott Bessen a fair amount of
- 33:25Speaker 2: credit for walking to President back from maybe some of
- 33:29Speaker 2: the more difficult tariffs that were initially announced. Is that
- 33:33Speaker 2: a valid point. Did Scott Besson play a big role
- 33:36Speaker 2: in walking the president back a little bit and does
- 33:39Speaker 2: he take credit for that or is he kind of demure?
- 33:41Speaker 8: Besson insists that his job is not to explain things
- 33:46Speaker 8: to the president or to advise the president. It is
- 33:50Speaker 8: to present the president with a series of options. Here's
- 33:54Speaker 8: path one, here's path two, here's here's path three. And
- 33:56Speaker 8: I will explain to you where we get if we
- 33:59Speaker 8: go down one, if we go down two, or if
- 34:01Speaker 8: we go down three. And he leaves it ultimately for
- 34:04Speaker 8: Trump to make the decision. That's very I wouldn't say
- 34:07Speaker 8: that's unique to this president, but Trump has a very
- 34:10Speaker 8: particular view of his role as a decider in chief
- 34:14Speaker 8: in this administration that is perhaps different from what we
- 34:16Speaker 8: saw with Biden, or with Obama, or even going back
- 34:20Speaker 8: in history to other Republicans like George W. Bush and
- 34:23Speaker 8: maybe even Ronald Reagan. So Besont does not claim credit
- 34:27Speaker 8: for being the de escalationist, but it is clear talking
- 34:30Speaker 8: to people around him and to understanding how the market
- 34:34Speaker 8: thinks market psychology, if you will, which is one of
- 34:38Speaker 8: his areas of expertise, having been a macro hedge fund
- 34:41Speaker 8: manager for almost forty years. That is where it really counts.
- 34:45Speaker 8: The market trusts him, and the market, based on its observations,
- 34:48Speaker 8: draws these conclusions rightly or wrongly.
- 34:51Speaker 2: Does he share any concerns he may have about just
- 34:54Speaker 2: getting somehow involved in some of the crossfire that it
- 34:59Speaker 2: happens around President Trump and getting into President Trump's bad
- 35:02Speaker 2: graces or just kind of I mean, because it's such
- 35:04Speaker 2: a perilous those people that fight fly close to President
- 35:07Speaker 2: Trump historically have done at their own risk.
- 35:10Speaker 8: Well, the former vice president, so.
- 35:12Speaker 2: Yeah, how does he negotiate? Does he even acknowledge that
- 35:15Speaker 2: that's a risk.
- 35:17Speaker 8: What I divine from the conversations we had with the
- 35:21Speaker 8: Treasury Secretary is that it there is a formula for
- 35:27Speaker 8: success in the Trump administration, and it means making certain
- 35:34Speaker 8: compromises if you will with yourself. You can come in
- 35:37Speaker 8: with your own ideas, but it is not your job
- 35:39Speaker 8: to advance that agenda. So you have to make some
- 35:42Speaker 8: compromises if you don't. And Steven Minuchin, the former treasure secretary,
- 35:46Speaker 8: points this out, if you cannot represent the president well,
- 35:49Speaker 8: in other words, if you can't get behind what the
- 35:52Speaker 8: president wants, the role has no power. What's the point
- 35:56Speaker 8: of being in DC. What's the point of abandoning a
- 35:59Speaker 8: forty year career in finance where your rose to be
- 36:01Speaker 8: one of the most successful hedge fund managers? And have
- 36:06Speaker 8: you know for it all to be worthless, had to
- 36:08Speaker 8: have no power. No, you want to be able to
- 36:10Speaker 8: wield influence and get things done. And that's very much
- 36:13Speaker 8: in the back of Scott Besant's mind. What's my legacy
- 36:16Speaker 8: as Treasury Secretary going.
- 36:17Speaker 5: To be our Thanks to Eric Shatzker, editorial Director Bloomberg
- 36:21Speaker 5: New Economy, that's.
- 36:22Speaker 2: This week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing
- 36:25Speaker 2: in depth research and data on two thousand companies in
- 36:28Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty industries.
- 36:29Speaker 5: And remember you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b I
- 36:32Speaker 5: go on the terminal. I'm Lisa Mattheo and.
- 36:34Speaker 8: I'm Paul Sweeney.
- 36:35Speaker 11: Stay with us.
- 36:35Speaker 2: Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up
- 36:38Speaker 2: right now.