Latest / Kitco MINING / Trust Is Being Repriced as Gold Returns to the Monetary System | Ronald-Peter Stöferle

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Trust Is Being Repriced as Gold Returns to the Monetary System | Ronald-Peter Stöferle · Kitco MINING

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Kitco Mining on-site coverage of the Precious Metal Summit is presented by Newcore Gold.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_02: Gold to$8,900 US dollars per ounce.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_02: Hello and welcome back to Kitco Mining with me, Paul Harris, here at the 2026 Precious Metal Summit in Beaver Creek in Colorado.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: Joining me now is Ronnie Stuffley, managing partner of Incrementum and author of the In Gold We Trust Report.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_02: Ronnie, welcome back to Kitcourt.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_02: Hi Paul, good to see you.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_02: Good to see you.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_02: Very, very interesting time.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: It's always an interesting time in the gold space.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_02: Today is no different.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to talk a lot about the In Gold We Trust Report.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_02: This year it was subtitled Back to the Monetary Future.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_02: We have it here in front of us, 460 pages of pretty much all you need to know about gold.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_02: The main topics are gold and geopolitics, the gold panorama, and performance gold.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_02: Fortunately, Ronnie's kind enough to produce crib notes for journalists, so I don't have to read through 460 pages.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: First observation, Ronnie, nothing to do with the gold price, or maybe not.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: The publication's getting bigger.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: Why is that?
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: The serious answer would be, you know, basically because of technology and AI.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: Previously, you know, for the for the whole process of writing the report, yeah, we had like our translators, and it always took us like a couple of days, you know, to get back a translated chapter.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: Now it's just one click.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: So technology also leads to more information, obviously.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so that's one side of the story.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: But on the other hand, it's also, you know, there's just so much going on in the gold world.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I can tell you, every year we sit together planning for the report, and we say, okay, this year we will write less.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: 300 pages is the maximum.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: But then, you know, there's so much going on in terms of geopolitical political developments, uh, what are the central banks doing?
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, financial repression, what's going on in the mining world, new technologies?
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then we end up with a new all-time high, not only in the price of gold, but also in the length of the Ingold We Trust report.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: So, compared to last year's edition, what are some of the key changes or the key additions to the report this year?
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I would say this year it's really, as the title says, um, it's about the remonetization of gold.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's that's I think for for us as investors, everybody is for following the daily noise and you know, uh, where's the gold price going next week?
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: But if we really zoom out and um, you know, ask ourselves the question: is this just a normal gold cycle or is it a revaluation cycle?
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is really for for the investment case for gold, this is the the most important question that you have to ask yourself.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: And if you say, well, this is a normal gold cycle, and you could say, well, gold is actually it's not inexpensive anymore.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, uh, it's it's perhaps even even expensive.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: But if you say this is a remonetization of gold, and gold is going back basically, um um like it has always been in our monetary past, a monetary asset, then gold is actually pretty cheap still.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, um uh the reference obviously is to Back to the Future, where I realized that the younger parts um of our team they actually have never seen that movie here uh and they didn't know, you know, Marty McFly and the DeLorean and stuff.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: Well, what for me is like one of the big movies of my of my uh uh childhood.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, Marty has to go back into the past to repair um the present and the future.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I think you know, if you want to understand um many, many flaws and and issues that we have these days, um, you have to understand monetary history.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that therefore the future of our monetary system can be found uh in the past of it.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, I imagine there's many governments around the world would would love the opportunity to go back in the past and curb their spending to prevent their budget deficits getting out of hand, but uh that seems quite unlikely.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_02: You you've uh discussing this concept, you've talked about the the return, the the gold's return to the monetary system as a creeping remonetization.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_02: Well, what do you mean by that?
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, creeping or also a silent remonetization because actually people often think that governments or especially central banks are against gold or uh you know they're uh they want to keep the gold price down.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: Well, actually, if you have a look at the numbers, for example, in the eurozone, which owns more than 12,000 tons of gold, um there is there is actually a a recount, uh, an account uh which is now almost 400 billion, um including the surpluses due to the rise in gold prices.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so actually the the balance sheet of the uh of the ECB got got much uh stronger due to the rise in gold prices.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um then we're also seeing that uh obviously uh many many other countries, uh especially China, uh India, and Russia.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they bought like 52 percent of all the physical gold over the last 15 years.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh they used to have pretty low um gold allocations, and then now they try to um uh uh to reach the levels that the legacy holders have.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: And then there's also the gold light countries here.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Canada, for example, zero tons of gold, lots of gold in the ground, but there's also Australia, uh Japan, for example.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: And one of our theses is that those gold-light countries at some point will start buying gold.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that you know, this trend that started in 2022 with central banks buying, you know, an enormous amount of gold, uh, 4,000 tons in four years, this year also looks pretty good.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think this clearly shows that gold is gaining um, it's kind of regaining um its status as a monetary asset.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: So this is one part, but then we should also ask ourselves I mean, um, if there's no remonetization happening, then why are so many countries repatriating gold from the US and also from Canada, bringing it back home into their own vault?
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: So I think there's lots of developments going on, and and all of them basically lead to my conclusion that gold is uh is is coming back into this kind of the center of our monetary system.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: But central bankers don't want to talk about it, but they're quite happy about rising gold prices.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: I want to sort of dig into that more because um I think this is a fascinating aspect.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_02: You you've written and spoken a lot about uh central bank buying, particularly in Eastern and Asian nations.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: As you mentioned, uh China has been uh um uh leading the charge, if you like.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_02: In the West, Poland is right up there amongst the biggest buyers.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_02: And as you mentioned, some of the Western countries, Netherlands most recently, earlier this year, France repatriating gold from the US.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_02: I guess there's a couple of different strings there to sort of pull upon.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_02: One is uh, as you mentioned, Western governments starting to appreciate gold more and its role in in the running of their states.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but also the repatriation of gold from the United States.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, I guess there's other aspects, geopolitical aspects there, trust aspects there.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_02: Um, how do you see both of those different separate and related yet related things uh sort of playing out?
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well, trust is being repriced, I would say.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_01: And I mean it's uh uh you know it was just a coincidence that I called my first report in Gold We Trust, yeah.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: But in hindsight, I think it's a it's a perfect title, yeah.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: And and and gold has built up this huge amount of trust, trust capital over the last 5,000 years as a monetary asset.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: While I think the trust in in central banks, in politics in general, also in the media, in uh science, yeah, in so many different areas is just eroding and almost collapsing.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that, you know, uh with Donald Trump, you know, so so many things happening that really long established relationships and alliances are now being questioned.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so so the whole world is obviously in in time turmoil, and and um I think this is kind of this renaissance of gold is definitely the renaissance of this, you know, um uh trust capital that that gold has has built over the years.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: And why, you know, people often say, why is it gold?
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because it's been a very, very long trial and error process, yeah.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: Over hundreds and thousands of years, what is the best monetary asset?
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it wasn't paper, it wasn't cigarettes, it wasn't um salt, it ended up to be gold.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so so I think those those monetary things, which which is if you have a certain understanding of history, which unfortunately many people don't really have anymore, um, if you have a proper understanding of the Austrian School of Economics, then you obviously regard gold as a monetary asset.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: However, most people still analyze it as a just another commodity, basically.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I think this is really important to emphasize because we want to um make a positive case for gold and just show the numbers, yeah, show the facts.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um when I uh presented here the first time in 2016, I did a fireside talk with um with John Hathaway and Martin Morenbield.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: The price of gold was trading at 1250.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so I calculated the Kager, which is like um I think 15, 14 or 15% since then.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, which is pretty decent, I would say.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um probably better than the SP, much better, probably better than the Nasdaq.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: But I think that those facts and figures are vastly underreported.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I think there's there's a strong and positive case to be made for gold as a portfolio um hedge, especially in these days where the 60-40 portfolio is failing, where inflation is very sticky.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: And that's kind of also the mission that we have at in Gold Retrust.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, I I I agree with you that the there's a lack of that appreciation of history, and I think the fact that uh people don't get the reference to Back to the Future is illustrative of that because that was obviously 20-30 years ago a very, very sort of big popular film.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um, with as as this plays out, what's the logical conclusion?
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_02: Is it that gold becomes the only game in town for for valuing assets for trading?
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um not not I I think um primarily as a store of value function.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um I think as a as a you know, out of those three functions of money, I think um I think the store of value function is probably the most important one.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um I think that going forward I would say that um let's put it that way, if we have a look at uh at the bond markets, yeah.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: So so today that the 10 years are at uh 5.2%.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and it's not it's not only an uh US issue.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it's basically the same chart, yeah.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: Japan, France, which is a huge, huge issue issue.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh um not too many people care about at the moment, but this is really giving me sleepless nights.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but also Germany, obviously, the UK.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's basically the same trend.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yields are breaking out.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: So basically, people have kind of lost confidence uh in the bond market, in the you know, uh sustainability of what's going on.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think the the fact that fiscal policy has now really taken over from monetary monetary policy.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's that's now very obvious with Scott Besson recently saying I'm the house now, and you know, with his interventions in the uh Japanese yen, uh, so in the FX market, but also in the bond market, obviously.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: So so I think this we're going from don't fight the Fed to don't fight the treasury, and and we'll see who who's actually winning um um um in that in that fight.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but I think that gold is basically the um um the spectator from outside and is kind of you know profiting from from from that development.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: So I think many of the topics that we've been writing about for ages, dedollarization, but also, you know, um um the protection of purchasing power with gold.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, now it's being called the debasement trade.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's like the big big topic now.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: I think now it's becoming more and more mainstream, which is kind of nice that our theories are yeah.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's quite incredible that Scott Bessant would come out and say something like that.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, hubris, arrogance, whatever, but it seemed that the you know the bond market quickly put him in his place.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, is that how you're viewing that sort of chain of events?
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: I I'm not sure.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: I I I would think I think that 5% is really the the line in the sand.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: So and the market will test that, obviously.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: So so I think for for Bessend it's similar to Draghi's um whatever it takes moment.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, there's no lack of ego in in Washington.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think that Scott Bessend obviously he understands monetary history, he understands gold.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: So so so one might be a uh uh solution for for for many issues that we're that we're currently facing is really a revaluation of US gold.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and this is gonna be a major topic of my my next uh keynote that I will deliver at at the Denver Gold Show.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: So the US still holds uh um its gold reserves at$42.22, um, same price like in 1970.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: So from my point of view, at some point they will go to mark to market, like the ECB does.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: Um and that would be a revaluation profit of roughly 1.1 trillion.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I I always wonder, you know, if you bought a house in house in 1970, um, you're not talking about you know the the price that you paid back then, you're you're actually mark or valuing it to current prices.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_01: So I think using gold to kind of re-establish trust in the US bond market, in the US dollar, this is for me that's kind of an um uh um uh a way to go.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that Scott Best and he every now and then he he mentions gold in a very, very positive way.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_01: He said that people used to call him a gold bug.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that gold will play a major role um in that whole mess that we're in um uh in the United States.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: Now, as you as you point out, gold has various different functions, one of which is the medium of exchange.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_02: And uh it sounds like you you don't necessarily think that gold will resume that previous historical function as a medium of exchange, but I want to sort of question you about that because if there is overall declining trust in fiat, um you know that gives perhaps the space for gold to step up into that medium of exchange role, and particularly given that uh we're seeing digital gold, the creation of digital gold, fractionated gold, that being able to fulfill that function becomes more possible, doesn't it?
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, kind of, but I but I think that you know can just speak for me, and I I I've had like many meetings with companies doing like uh uh gold-backed uh credit cards or or whatever.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: I always said, well, this is no use case for me because I I want to save in gold, yeah, and I want to spend my euros or my dollars.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I think the the the medium if of exchange is only secondary.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think um uh the the the value preservation function is is really the by far the most important one.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: And it's it's very similar with Bitcoin, and it's interesting.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_01: Bitcoin is doing really well, and you know we've got two funds that combine gold and bitcoin.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I know that there was lots of criticism from the from the gold world, but also from the Bitcoin world.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but as they're basically not correlated, it totally makes sense to combine combine both in uh in a portfolio.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I also think for for Bitcoin, um, as it is kind of digital gold, I think the payment function is not really the most important one.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: It is really to protect purchasing power over long terms.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's the role of gold, and Bitcoin tries to do the same.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_02: I want to sort of bring that very much to us where we are and what we're doing.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_02: We're at an investment conference, there's 240 issuers um trying to attract investor interest.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_02: I know you've wrote about this and we've spoken about this.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_02: The the the fact that gold producers, generally speaking, do not hold any bullion on their on their balance sheets, and there's obviously various fores and against that.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_02: Um but it seems the the value preservation function it w is is a critical thing there.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_02: But um, you know, the the feedback I get is institutions don't like that, they don't want gold companies to be you know speculating on what the gold price is going to do today or tomorrow.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_02: However, if that kind of makes sense, but it seems in if that is the case, then they seem content to be invested in companies that have large cash positions on their balance sheet that are eroding in value, which would seem to be not a good thing to do.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean we ran the numbers, we call it this this chapter the corporate gold standard.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I wrote it together with uh Chris Ritchie.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um that strategy at at um uh Silver Silver Crest.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: Silvercrest, yeah.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: I wanted to say silver crop, but silver crest, thank you.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um very successfully, yeah.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, uh, and Alex Scanlon uh of Barton Gold also uh helped me on the chapter.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, we we this is also about marketing uh in this in this space, and this is a topic that I discussed with uh John Hathaway last last night at the um at the keynote.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think the the industry has to really uh improve when it gets to you know reaching like a different audience.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, um generalist investors couldn't care less about drill results, yeah, about you know all the geo stuff that our industry is excited about.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they don't care about it.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: So you really have to simplify um your story, you have to create a narrative, and then obviously to live to deliver, but now it's like I think it's really the sweet spot because we're seeing pristine balance sheets, we're seeing just the free cash flow um production of the largest four producers in the last 12 months was 25 billion.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: That was the total market cap of Baric just two years ago.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: So now is really the time five or six billion of that was cash.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, now is really the time to get out.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: So I think, of course, always if you do something new, there's kind of criticism and a backlash.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, when they introduced the car, um the the how do I say the course carriages there were also against that, yeah.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: And there were many, many reasons to say no to that uh innovation.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: I don't suggest that mining companies hold like the majority of their cash in gold, yeah, but why not five to ten percent?
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and then just constantly build it up as kind of a you know uh as a golden war chest.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I think it makes sense, first of all, with the cost inflation that we're seeing in the industry for every project, we all know that it's getting more and more expensive.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think gold hatches that pretty well, but it's also a sign of confidence, and I think that sometimes companies in our industry that produce one of the most beautiful things ever, uh, it's gold is like the perfect product, yeah.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: You cannot make it any better, they don't appreciate that, and I think sometimes they even don't understand it.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_01: So, so I think holding a little bit um if it's 10% on your balance sheet, I think it will over the long term improve your balance sheet.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, CFOs don't like that idea, analysts don't like it because then they have to change their DCF models, uh uh whatever.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: But I think you would also reach a different audience, yeah.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that Silvercrest did a tremendous job regarding that, and there's some other companies working on that now.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: So this is really um very dear to my heart.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: And there is a discussion, of course, yeah.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_01: But I think it's this corporate gold standard is something that um could really um change the sector for the better.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_02: I can understand how doing this perhaps makes the accounting a little bit more complicated, but that's certainly no reason not to do it.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_02: And one of the companies that's recently started doing that is uh company we know very well, Mineros, yes, the Colombian producer.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um, maybe coincidentally, yesterday they hit a uh 52-week high, an all-time high, topped$10 per per share for the first time.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we've talked about a lot of the sort of positive energy behind gold at the moment, but uh maybe let's end with a sour note.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um, let me ask you what would you say is the strongest bear case for gold today?
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: Strongest bear case.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um obviously I I'm I I think about it quite a lot.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um because we can always talk about the up the upside, but it's more important to to think about the downside.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's um first of all, monetary growth is one of the most important drivers for the price of gold.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um there would be like monetary, there would have to be like monetary deflation.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: Can it happen?
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, usually when you see a crash in capital markets, in financial markets, it's a deflationary move.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: But we all know what the reaction function is.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it will be lower rates, it will be another round of QE or QQE or whatever they're gonna call it.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: So I would rule it out.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: Then of course the debt situation is one thing.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm I think that Russell Napier recently uh in a podcast made uh made some really good options.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: Observation saying, well, people always focus on on government debt, uh, which is of course uh a problem at the moment.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um but then actually the corporate debt and also private debt, there has been some deleveraging.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and people always think it's a it's a uh it's a one-way street with government debt.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: But there are also some positive examples.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: So if you have a look at Greece, for example, yeah, um, all the reforms that they had, I mean they went to uh through really hard times, but it's not impossible from my point of view.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: So so my the the most important driver for gold going forward for me is basically um, you know, from this huge pie of uh you know the big investment uh cake, if you want to put it that way, which is 140 trillion in fixed income.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is really the future demand for gold.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, some you know, uh some capital um getting slightly more nervous because of inflation, because the 60-40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, and so on, moving into uh hard assets like gold, gold and silver miners, commodities.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is really um where I'm seeing the biggest opportunity.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: And at the moment, um the gold allocation, the private gold allocation is 2.7%.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: So I think this is hardly a bubble.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_01: So the bear case would obviously be if that reverses, yeah, if more money is going uh back to uh fixed income side, yeah, if everything's gonna be fine, inflation under control, and so on.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um I cannot rule it out, yeah.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: But the fact that the US inflation rate is now 56 months uh above 2%, it kind of tells me that the Federal Reserve has given up of its uh on its inflation target.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_01: And therefore I would say again, uh I really cannot predict, although many people think they can, the very short-term developments.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: But if we zoom out, I think this this if you say the answer to the question is it a remonetization cycle is yes, then I think significantly higher prices are very, very likely.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, I I would agree with you.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_02: 2% inflation target is perhaps unrealistic.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, let's end where we started.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_02: Uh you you talked about your model showing 8,900 US dollars per ounce, uh, gold price.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that's very broad strokes, double what the gold price is today.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_02: So, what sort of time horizon could that potentially play out in?
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, that's um by by 2030, which is from now, that's a keger of I think 16%.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: From now until 2030, um, so end of uh end of 2030.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: And 16 kg, I mean that's I think that's pretty realistic.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh let's not forget, Paula.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think um people here are sometimes a little bit too optimistic.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I mean, we had like um year 2025, gold was up 60, 65 percent, a huge run-up.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I think the fact that we don't see more selling pressure, it makes me extremely confident.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we're seeing now that you know at 4,000, 4,200, there was lots of buying, um, buyers with very deep pockets, probably from China.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: So I think, and it might be a little bit of a boring forecast, yeah, but I think it's pretty realistic.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_01: Perhaps 2026 is a year of a consolidation.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we're now here in Beaver Creek, it's 2,500 meters high, whatever this that is in in feet, but it's very high.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_02: 8 or 9,000 feet, something like that.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's really high.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, I compare it to running up a mountain.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_01: Um, at some point you have just you know, have to build your base camp, yeah, and just rest for a little bit.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's that's a good analogy for the price of golden.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, actually, 8,900 is the price target that we uh announced in the uh report that we put out in 2020, which back then, you know, people thought, you know, guys are crazy.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_01: So um we said 4,800 is our base case, 8,900 is our target if inflation should become a concern in this decade.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: Back in 2020, nobody talked about inflation.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I think 8,900 is realistic, which is almost um the the height of um um Mount Everest.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I think this mountain climbing analogy works really well.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_02: Opening up a whole new field of research, gold prices correlated to mountaintop heights.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_01: I always come up with stupid analogies, as you know.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_02: Excellent.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_02: Um, hopefully next year you you recently published your um Oktoberfest uh index.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um hopefully next year we can have a PMS Beaver Creek uh index of, I don't know, the cost of a martini or hotel room or something of that nature.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_02: Let's do that.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, excellent.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_02: Ronna Peter Stefli, it's been a pleasure once again.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you very much for joining us.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you, Paul.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_02: We have a lot more to come for the 2026 Precious Metal Summit here in Beaver Creek, Colorado.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_02: So stay tuned and hit that subscribe button.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_02: I'm Paul Harris, and this is Kitco Mining.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: Kitco Mining on site coverage of the Precious Metal Summit is presented by Newcore Gold.