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Crypto Crash Ending?📉Technical Analysis with Tim Warren · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Are we in a bear market today? We'll answer that
0:02
Speaker 1: for you because it's going to be the question that
0:03
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Speaker 1: get going. Listen, I want to bring in Tim Warren,
0:37
Speaker 1: who's coming in from the Tim Warren Trades Channel.
0:40
Speaker 2: How are you doing good, Paul, Good to be back.
0:43
Speaker 2: Sick all of last week, so I missed being on
0:45
Speaker 2: the show, but glad to be back. And hey, maybe
0:48
Speaker 2: the bottom's in, Maybe it's not though. Maybe the bearmarkets
0:50
Speaker 2: here we're going to assess them.
0:51
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, we're going to look at it. Hey, listen,
0:53
Speaker 1: We've got one thing happening, and that is the cloud
0:56
Speaker 1: flare outage has caused carnage in this of Crypto Exchange's website.
1:03
Speaker 1: Polymarket was down x was down for several hours. So
1:07
Speaker 1: after two major aws outages, all right, we already have
1:11
Speaker 1: had another cloud flare outage. And are we continuing to
1:15
Speaker 1: see some nefarious activities occurring at very critical times in
1:21
Speaker 1: the market? Have you noticed that very critical times? If
1:24
Speaker 1: you go to look at these outages as more trading
1:26
Speaker 1: is occurring, I don't know yet.
1:29
Speaker 2: Very few things in this world are coincidences, So.
1:31
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. I wonder what would be the
1:34
Speaker 1: coincidence of a new chair and who we would replace
1:39
Speaker 1: that new chair with. Who is your pick right now?
1:42
Speaker 1: Do you have one?
1:44
Speaker 2: I don't know. If I have a pick, I'm not
1:45
Speaker 2: gonna be the one to make that pick. And I'm
1:47
Speaker 2: glad Waller's making his case. I don't think that crypto
1:51
Speaker 2: holders would be too opposed to Waller being the chair.
1:54
Speaker 2: But who knows. Maybe it's someone who's not even on
1:56
Speaker 2: the FED right now and it's an outside hire. But
1:58
Speaker 2: we'll see.
2:00
Speaker 1: Well, he says he's going to do it, says he
2:01
Speaker 1: already knows who's going to pick to replace the FED chair,
2:05
Speaker 1: mister Jerome Powell. The question is when does he do it? Now?
2:09
Speaker 1: I want to go into the market a little bit,
2:11
Speaker 1: and I'm going to lead off with a clip here,
2:13
Speaker 1: and this, of course is mister Matt Hogan and Tom
2:17
Speaker 1: Lee talking about is this the bottom take a look.
2:21
Speaker 3: It's crypto specifically. It's been dealing with two issues. One
2:26
Speaker 3: is there was this big liquidation event on October tenth
2:29
Speaker 3: one that really was a larger liquidation event than anything
2:33
Speaker 3: seen in history. And the second is because crypto is
2:37
Speaker 3: risk on, I think markets are really struggling with what
2:40
Speaker 3: the Fed's going to signal on December, because you know,
2:43
Speaker 3: if you end up with a hawkish FED, it gets
2:45
Speaker 3: crypto investors very nervous. I think that's all creating this
2:49
Speaker 3: downside pressure. But I think the good news is there
2:52
Speaker 3: are signs of exhaustion. Just like in twenty twenty two
2:55
Speaker 3: or in twenty twenty, it does take a few weeks
2:58
Speaker 3: for the industry to sort of find its footing, and
3:00
Speaker 3: I think that's why crypto prices have lagged here, and
3:04
Speaker 3: it does have the signs of that maybe a market
3:06
Speaker 3: maker or two actually is unable to provide market liquidity
3:11
Speaker 3: and as you know, as liquidity contracts, it's the same
3:14
Speaker 3: thing as the central bank tightening. So it's almost like
3:17
Speaker 3: crypto qt mindset would look like a bottom that could
3:20
Speaker 3: be occurring sometime this week.
3:22
Speaker 4: I look at this as a great buying opportunity for
3:24
Speaker 4: long term investors. You know, Bitcoin was the first thing
3:27
Speaker 4: to turn over before this broader market pullback. It was
3:30
Speaker 4: sort of the Canarian the coal mine, signaling that there
3:32
Speaker 4: was some risk in all sorts of risk on assets.
3:36
Speaker 4: I think it'll be the first thing to bottom, and
3:38
Speaker 4: I agree with Tom. We're getting very close to that point.
3:40
Speaker 4: So I think it's an exciting opportunity again for people
3:43
Speaker 4: who are looking out a year or more into the future.
3:47
Speaker 1: All Right, So there you have it, Tom Lee, both
3:49
Speaker 1: Matt Hogan are still upside very bullish on the market,
3:53
Speaker 1: saying that this is that was a little bit of
3:55
Speaker 1: a striking statement that Tom said about market makers not
3:59
Speaker 1: having liquid to be able to be able to run
4:02
Speaker 1: into That's a little scary in the sense of where
4:04
Speaker 1: we are the market right now, because it means are
4:06
Speaker 1: we in a house of cards? You know, when you
4:09
Speaker 1: look at that kind of scenario, if that's happened, is
4:11
Speaker 1: it's systemic that it could kind of roll into other
4:13
Speaker 1: market makers. Do you agree with Matt and Tom that
4:18
Speaker 1: this is the bottom?
4:20
Speaker 2: You know, it's crazy because when I have to start
4:23
Speaker 2: off and give just clear points about it to Tom
4:28
Speaker 2: Lee or Tom has been right about a lot of
4:31
Speaker 2: things in the past, He's not been right here recently.
4:34
Speaker 2: I think at this point his predictions of where we're
4:36
Speaker 2: going to be at the end of the year are
4:37
Speaker 2: just way too far fetched. I think it's pretty clear.
4:40
Speaker 2: You know, we're not going to get to one hundred
4:41
Speaker 2: and fifty or whatever or with bitcoin unless something a
4:45
Speaker 2: miracle happens. Hundred ty thousand or seven thousand for ethereum,
4:49
Speaker 2: unless a miracle happens. Those things are happening. Maybe he's
4:53
Speaker 2: he's a two hunred thosand and two fifty. I'm saying
4:55
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty thouand probably won't happen by the
4:58
Speaker 2: end of the year at this point. But when it
5:00
Speaker 2: comes to the statements, will we see a bottom this week?
5:04
Speaker 2: I've moved into a place, Paul, I think I said
5:06
Speaker 2: this on your show last time I was here. I
5:08
Speaker 2: have been brutalized and I'm not even gonna try to
5:11
Speaker 2: hide behind or make excuses. My longer term price predictions
5:14
Speaker 2: have been brutalized. I have videos from a year ago saying, hey,
5:17
Speaker 2: how high can these cryptos get by the end of
5:19
Speaker 2: twenty May five? And not a single one of them
5:21
Speaker 2: have come true. Right, So I'm not gonna sit here
5:23
Speaker 2: in a lot of people and tell them I'm this
5:24
Speaker 2: perfect guru. But I've I've decided, you know what, I'm
5:27
Speaker 2: gonna step out of trying to look down the road
5:29
Speaker 2: of six seven months, a year, two years away. That
5:33
Speaker 2: is borderline impossible. At this point, I'm gonna focus on
5:36
Speaker 2: what is right in front of me, what a chart's
5:38
Speaker 2: saying right now, and what I am seeing is we
5:41
Speaker 2: have hit a lot of support and we've hit a
5:43
Speaker 2: lot of blood here. In the last couple of days,
5:47
Speaker 2: weeks ago, I told people be prepared for ninety two,
5:51
Speaker 2: and I said, hey, there's an outside chance eighty nine.
5:53
Speaker 2: I think, I said eighty nine to eight could be
5:55
Speaker 2: hit due to golden pockets, due to some liquidity and
5:58
Speaker 2: liquidations that were down at those levels. I was hopeful
6:01
Speaker 2: we might have bounced closer to ninety eight or ninety six.
6:03
Speaker 2: But I told our community, listen, these are still available.
6:06
Speaker 2: We took all that out last night. We took all
6:08
Speaker 2: those gun I'm not saying we can't go lower, but
6:10
Speaker 2: we took all those out pretty fast, pretty aggressively. And
6:14
Speaker 2: as we're going to look out here in the charts,
6:15
Speaker 2: heenter second, there's a handful of things that are echoing.
6:19
Speaker 2: Bottom is in, or at least bottom is close. So
6:23
Speaker 2: what happened this week? That's a good question. Maybe it
6:26
Speaker 2: did happen, but it's at least very close in my opinion.
6:30
Speaker 1: Well, eighty nine two, I think is where we landed
6:33
Speaker 1: this at least. Yeah, So you're looking at a struggling
6:37
Speaker 1: market at best. And even with that, you've got Rob
6:40
Speaker 1: Paul who has also hit on this, and that is
6:42
Speaker 1: bitcoin corrected and this is I mean, he's just stating
6:45
Speaker 1: facts here. Bitcoin to twenty twenty four correct at thirty two,
6:48
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, thirty two. Right now, it's around twenty
6:51
Speaker 1: eight normal if you've been here before. I know everybody,
6:55
Speaker 1: most people who are here now watching our channel has
6:57
Speaker 1: not lived it before, so they're a little panicking.
7:00
Speaker 2: You know.
7:01
Speaker 1: Solana corrected forty seven, sixty seven, forty eight, and Suey
7:05
Speaker 1: was sixty nine seventy nine, sixty eight, and now sixty four.
7:09
Speaker 1: So cycle wise, the point that I think he's getting
7:15
Speaker 1: at is everything's over sold right now and that this
7:20
Speaker 1: right now, the sentiment is terrible. We'll show the you know,
7:23
Speaker 1: the fear and greed in the second. But would you say, okay,
7:26
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm not gonna pin you down to Are
7:28
Speaker 1: we in a bull market or in a bear market?
7:30
Speaker 1: Are you bullish or bearish right now going into the end.
7:34
Speaker 2: Of the year, right, I mean the end of the day.
7:36
Speaker 2: I'll answered both sides of that question. I am bullish
7:38
Speaker 2: going to the end of the year, not one hundred
7:39
Speaker 2: and fifty thousand to two hundred thousand for bitcoin, not
7:41
Speaker 2: seven thousand dollars per coin for theory. I'm not that
7:43
Speaker 2: level of bullish. But I am bullish. And when you
7:47
Speaker 2: when the original question, you said you don't want to
7:49
Speaker 2: pin me down, I'm okay being pinned down there. If
7:51
Speaker 2: you are going to say we're in a bear market,
7:53
Speaker 2: which again a lot of people are in intersting right now,
7:55
Speaker 2: I'm willing to say, fine, we're in a bear market.
7:58
Speaker 2: If you agree that we had a bear market early
8:00
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five and if you agree that we
8:02
Speaker 2: hit a bear market in the summer of twenty twenty four,
8:05
Speaker 2: because again, as you just even mentioned, they're based on
8:07
Speaker 2: Ralph Paul's tweet, we actually are not even down as
8:10
Speaker 2: far right now as we're back then, and yet the
8:13
Speaker 2: fear in green decks you're about to show is showing
8:15
Speaker 2: the exact same levels of fear despite the fact that
8:18
Speaker 2: we actually aren't even as low. So I'm just sitting
8:21
Speaker 2: here saying, for anyone out there things, we're in a
8:23
Speaker 2: bear market. The answer at this point is not a
8:26
Speaker 2: crypto bear market. You can't use the stock market definition
8:29
Speaker 2: of a bear market and say cryptos in a bear
8:30
Speaker 2: market because that says twenty percent down, you're automatic a
8:33
Speaker 2: bear market. Twenty percent is a normal Tuesday for bitcoin
8:36
Speaker 2: and cryptocurrency. This has to be compared to previous levels
8:40
Speaker 2: and previous sections in this bull run so far, and
8:43
Speaker 2: until we drop to new lows and meaning new lows
8:46
Speaker 2: of how far we've fallen, I'm gonna continue to say
8:48
Speaker 2: we're in a bull market. I'm gonna see it as
8:50
Speaker 2: an extreme fear. We hit ten for two days in
8:52
Speaker 2: a row. This to me is screaming blood is in
8:55
Speaker 2: the streets. We cans are gone or almost gone. I
9:00
Speaker 2: think new highs are coming in the new year, all.
9:03
Speaker 1: Right, And you're looking at the fear and greed right there.
9:04
Speaker 1: Fifteen as of today, filming all the way back into April,
9:08
Speaker 1: which was the last time we saw a market dip
9:11
Speaker 1: also at fifteen, and the prior to that one was
9:14
Speaker 1: in March, and of course that was all due to
9:16
Speaker 1: tariffs also clipping down to fifteen again. But this move
9:20
Speaker 1: that we saw this week, where we started to see
9:23
Speaker 1: that ten for a short period of time, was pretty
9:26
Speaker 1: indicative of what you're saying in terms of is this
9:29
Speaker 1: the bottom and is the bottom end? I guess the
9:31
Speaker 1: real question if you go all the way back into
9:33
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, because I think a lot of people
9:37
Speaker 1: that watch our show, probably even your show, we're probably
9:39
Speaker 1: around in twenty twenty one, maybe not into crypto as
9:43
Speaker 1: heavy as they are now. But take a look at
9:46
Speaker 1: the bitcoin chart in twenty twenty one, tim, and if
9:49
Speaker 1: you compare May to November, kind of go in that.
9:54
Speaker 1: Tell me if there's any scenario that is unique to
9:58
Speaker 1: what's happened right now with the most recent up tick
10:01
Speaker 1: to twenty one hundred and twenty six here in twenty
10:03
Speaker 1: twenty five.
10:05
Speaker 2: So you're saying, comparing the one to November double top yep, yeah,
10:10
Speaker 2: and compared to this. When I hear yeah, people are
10:12
Speaker 2: gonna look for this and they're gonna try to pinpoint
10:15
Speaker 2: and say, man, we gotta look at this and see
10:16
Speaker 2: we clearly had Barish divergence with a slightly higher high.
10:20
Speaker 2: But if you turn on our osclators and you know,
10:22
Speaker 2: look at the RSI, we clearly went lower high, and
10:24
Speaker 2: they're gonna say, well, the same thing happened back here.
10:26
Speaker 2: Here's what I'll tell you. You could have made the argument.
10:29
Speaker 2: You can make the argument right now, you can if
10:31
Speaker 2: you want to, but you'd also let me go a
10:33
Speaker 2: weekly chart here see less candles. You also would have
10:38
Speaker 2: to make the argument, well, then why didn't we top
10:40
Speaker 2: out in January or December December twenty four to January
10:45
Speaker 2: twenty five, Because if you're gonna say, well that tim
10:47
Speaker 2: was massive Bearish divergence, we have to be done Well,
10:50
Speaker 2: there was massive Barish divergence back there as well, and
10:52
Speaker 2: we kept going to do highs. Right, this has been
10:54
Speaker 2: a triple top here. So I don't like the argument, Well,
10:57
Speaker 2: we've seen a chart look like this, it's called for
11:00
Speaker 2: anyone out there, he's called a fractal. I don't I'm
11:02
Speaker 2: not a big believer in fractals being perfect. People want
11:06
Speaker 2: to use the fractal of twenty twenty one to try
11:09
Speaker 2: to pinpoint the top of twenty twenty five, and like
11:12
Speaker 2: I just pointed out, if that was the case, then
11:14
Speaker 2: you should have sold back in December when we had
11:16
Speaker 2: that massive weekly bearish divergence. But of course we would
11:19
Speaker 2: go to new all time highs to one twenty six
11:21
Speaker 2: only a couple of months later. So I'm not a
11:23
Speaker 2: big believer in saying just because that looked like that
11:26
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one means it's going to happen again
11:28
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five.
11:30
Speaker 1: You put out the tweet obviously following up what Eleanor
11:33
Speaker 1: was talking about in reference to Senator Scott talking about this,
11:36
Speaker 1: and he's mom on the banking side of the market structure,
11:39
Speaker 1: which tells me that things are not looking good in
11:42
Speaker 1: Congress for the Clarity Act, and when you look at
11:47
Speaker 1: where we are right now on the market, this would
11:50
Speaker 1: be another bottom signal. If we don't get the Clarity
11:53
Speaker 1: many people would say, Okay, well, everybody's selling out waiting
11:56
Speaker 1: for Clarity Act most likely going to happen, you know,
11:59
Speaker 1: Q one, If we get it through Q one of
12:01
Speaker 1: next year, do you think that is a signal for
12:04
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. If they finally put a nail in
12:06
Speaker 1: this one and say it's not happening this year, I.
12:09
Speaker 2: Mean, that's definitely not gonna be. It's not gonna make
12:11
Speaker 2: a Skyrocks new all time highs by itself, that news,
12:14
Speaker 2: I think. I think part of this, though, is gonna
12:16
Speaker 2: be blown out of proportion. Tim Scott come out and
12:18
Speaker 2: saying it's not gonna happen by the end of twenty
12:20
Speaker 2: way five. Let's be honest, there's only a month and less.
12:23
Speaker 2: There's less than a month and a half left in
12:24
Speaker 2: the year, right. If there's one thing we know about
12:26
Speaker 2: America's government systems is that they don't do anything fast.
12:31
Speaker 2: So to think that we've been shut down for the
12:33
Speaker 2: longest shutdown in American history, we just got reopened last week,
12:37
Speaker 2: and they're gonna turn around and vote on this and
12:38
Speaker 2: get this all approved in a month and a half,
12:41
Speaker 2: I think the way to look at this is say
12:42
Speaker 2: Tim Scott's being reasonable, saying, hey, guys, it probably won't
12:45
Speaker 2: be approved until early into Q one of twenty one five.
12:48
Speaker 2: Who gotta get time to have debate and conversations, and
12:51
Speaker 2: we got to make sure we get the votes. You
12:52
Speaker 2: don't want to rush this process and then have to
12:54
Speaker 2: go back to the drawing board. He wants to take
12:56
Speaker 2: it slowly, but surely get the votes and then get
12:59
Speaker 2: this pass asap. And that's just probably not in twenty
13:02
Speaker 2: May five.
13:04
Speaker 1: Other macro environment things that are happening is the jobs.
13:08
Speaker 1: We're finally starting to get some data. US jobless claims
13:10
Speaker 1: now rise two hundred and thirty two thousand. The estimate
13:12
Speaker 1: was around two twenty three, so up considerably again after
13:16
Speaker 1: a previously high of two hundred nineteen thousand jobless. So
13:21
Speaker 1: we're continuing to go up the you know, it's kind
13:23
Speaker 1: of like a situation in the market. We'll continue to
13:26
Speaker 1: see a higher Barish divergence here when it comes to
13:31
Speaker 1: jobs in general. Do you think that we are in
13:34
Speaker 1: a position right now, because if you look at the
13:36
Speaker 1: S and P. Five hundred and you compare that to
13:40
Speaker 1: the economy, it's as if the economy isn't a completely different, polar,
13:45
Speaker 1: opposite environment than what we're seeing the S and P
13:47
Speaker 1: five hundred, even though it's down a little bit but
13:49
Speaker 1: still up significantly on the year. Do you think this
13:53
Speaker 1: changes for next year or does the S and P
13:55
Speaker 1: five hundred finally get its day and we start to
13:58
Speaker 1: see a major correction in the Well, let's.
14:01
Speaker 2: Be very clear, what's in the S and P five hundred.
14:04
Speaker 2: One of those companies, the largest company in the world,
14:06
Speaker 2: in Vidia, has been boosted through the AI world. That's
14:08
Speaker 2: the whole debate right now on the internet. Is a
14:10
Speaker 2: AI about to enter into a bubble? I believe your
14:13
Speaker 2: teel just removed all of his investments from Nvidia. I
14:16
Speaker 2: could see in Vidia come down back down to earth.
14:18
Speaker 2: We talked about my show the other day, But you're right,
14:21
Speaker 2: like the SP five hundred doesn't match the full blown
14:23
Speaker 2: look of the economy because it is propped up by
14:26
Speaker 2: certain stocks that are going massively the upside, like in Vidia,
14:30
Speaker 2: and that could correct here a little bit in a
14:33
Speaker 2: nutshell though I still think that I said this the
14:36
Speaker 2: other the end of my show. The economy is not
14:38
Speaker 2: where everyone wants it to be, but it's not in
14:41
Speaker 2: as bad of a position as some people want to
14:43
Speaker 2: doom and gloom to make it out to be the
14:45
Speaker 2: sep FI hundred is up because of AI stock. I
14:47
Speaker 2: think what we could see happen is a coordinated approach
14:50
Speaker 2: where crypto does very well and other stocks very well
14:53
Speaker 2: as not only does the liquidity come in from the FED.
14:55
Speaker 2: Right people are freaking out about the December decision. I
14:58
Speaker 2: still think they're gonna cut rates, but remember this number first.
15:00
Speaker 2: Whether they cut rates again in December on the tenth
15:03
Speaker 2: or not, December first ends quantitative tightening. We have several
15:06
Speaker 2: FED members talking about quantitative easing is gonna come sooner
15:09
Speaker 2: rather than later. That is added injected liquidity back into
15:12
Speaker 2: the markets. Then you also have these overinflated I'm not
15:16
Speaker 2: going to call it a bubble, but I am going
15:17
Speaker 2: to call it overinflated stocks in the AI space space
15:21
Speaker 2: that people have been sending money to, they've been making
15:23
Speaker 2: a lot. It's over bought. Watch them take profits, and
15:27
Speaker 2: there's two options to do with the once youdiculous profits.
15:29
Speaker 2: Do you have faith in the US dollar? I don't,
15:32
Speaker 2: but you could if you want to or do something
15:35
Speaker 2: that has a bright future and is over sold. I
15:38
Speaker 2: look at the crypto space right now. I think we're
15:40
Speaker 2: about to see a massive liquidity shift into crypto. You're
15:44
Speaker 2: seeing liquidity in the global scale scale is hitting some highs,
15:48
Speaker 2: hitting some resistance. The US dollar, the Dixie is hitting
15:51
Speaker 2: a resistance level. Also, USDT dominance back up to a zone.
15:55
Speaker 2: Let me actually show this chart all right. USDT dominance
15:58
Speaker 2: right now is back up at a Z the older
16:00
Speaker 2: resistance that previously this year has marked major bottoms. We're
16:04
Speaker 2: previously in this bull run. September of twenty four, we
16:06
Speaker 2: got to this level up here at six point five
16:08
Speaker 2: to three. In April slash in April of twenty twenty five,
16:12
Speaker 2: we got up here at six point two two. Today
16:14
Speaker 2: we waked as high as six point zero nine. And
16:17
Speaker 2: when you look at some other indicators, we are extremely
16:20
Speaker 2: overbought on this levels, preparing for a turn back to
16:22
Speaker 2: the downside. Even as high as the weekly chart USDT
16:26
Speaker 2: dominance going to the upside. For anyone who doesn't track
16:29
Speaker 2: this chart is a bearish thing. It makes sense that
16:32
Speaker 2: markets are bleeding. Guess what they're being put back into USDT.
16:36
Speaker 2: Guess what happens to the USDT gets high though and
16:38
Speaker 2: starts to reverse it comes back down. That liquidity gets
16:42
Speaker 2: injected into the crypto space because it's a stable coin.
16:46
Speaker 2: So if we have liquidity coming from stable coins back
16:48
Speaker 2: into crypto, and we have liquidity coming back from the
16:51
Speaker 2: economy and the US government. To me, again, I'm not
16:54
Speaker 2: gonna give a date and I'm not gonna give a
16:55
Speaker 2: price range of how high it could get. But all
16:58
Speaker 2: this still screams there's a assive liquidity jump coming to
17:02
Speaker 2: the markets. It's a matter of being patient, waiting for it,
17:05
Speaker 2: getting the weekends out of the market so that the
17:07
Speaker 2: rich can get richer. That's their game. But those of
17:10
Speaker 2: us who stay around in hodle on will get to
17:12
Speaker 2: reap those rewards as well. Well.
17:14
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people have to understand that
17:16
Speaker 1: wealthy people's timelines and time horizons are much different than
17:22
Speaker 1: others because you're dealing with people who don't really need
17:25
Speaker 1: the money. So they're sitting in a position where there's like, hey, whatever,
17:28
Speaker 1: I'm going to hold this for another five to ten years.
17:30
Speaker 1: That's my time horizon. Where's that market going to be
17:33
Speaker 1: at that time is the question. So a lot of
17:36
Speaker 1: this minutia that we're dealing with right now, which gets
17:39
Speaker 1: into your point of worrying about what's going to happen
17:41
Speaker 1: by end of quarter. Who cares really? I mean, at
17:44
Speaker 1: the end of the day, yes, you want to be
17:45
Speaker 1: in positions. So it's always about where you can buy
17:48
Speaker 1: an opportunity for a market dip and the other market
17:52
Speaker 1: dip opportunity is probably going to come up here on
17:54
Speaker 1: December tenth as we get into the fed raiate decision.
17:57
Speaker 1: To your point, you still think they're going to get
17:59
Speaker 1: a cut right now. It is a struggle over there
18:02
Speaker 1: on poly market because I don't think anybody knows we
18:06
Speaker 1: are back and forth on poly market on a quarter
18:10
Speaker 1: basis and a no change. Tim Warren says quarterbasis points.
18:15
Speaker 1: I'm I'm going to reserve my decision for one more
18:17
Speaker 1: week because I'm still worried about another another crazy move
18:22
Speaker 1: in the market, which also remember Pal's still got to
18:26
Speaker 1: get some more data, you know, and he may start
18:30
Speaker 1: I'm going to I will predict this, I will predict this.
18:33
Speaker 1: I think Pal's going to come in and do a
18:35
Speaker 1: meeting between now and December tenth to reveal some of
18:39
Speaker 1: his strategy based on data because of the pent up
18:42
Speaker 1: demand of data that he needed, so be on the
18:45
Speaker 1: lookout for that when he gives us that meeting, then
18:48
Speaker 1: we might have something. By the way, guys, if you
18:51
Speaker 1: haven't subscribed to Tim's channel right there, it is Tim
18:54
Speaker 1: Warren Trades over on YouTube cracking it out there, does
18:58
Speaker 1: a good job keeping you guys updated, So make sure
19:01
Speaker 1: and subscribe. Tell him we sent you over there for sure.
19:04
Speaker 1: Let's get into some other tokens here, Tim, and I
19:07
Speaker 1: want to look at the Before I do that, I
19:09
Speaker 1: want to go back to bitcoin for just a second,
19:11
Speaker 1: because this is this is a statement right here around
19:14
Speaker 1: the average ETF investor underwater as bitcoin's falling, you know,
19:18
Speaker 1: down to eighty ninety six obviously bitcoins back up to
19:21
Speaker 1: where are we at now ninety three to three here
19:24
Speaker 1: as time of recording, So a big move just in
19:27
Speaker 1: the last twelve hours. Yeah, do you think ETF investors
19:30
Speaker 1: are getting spoked here or do you think they'll hold?
19:33
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm sure. Remember ETF investors are still retailers, right.
19:37
Speaker 1: Yeah.
19:37
Speaker 2: While we do see institutions going the route of buying
19:39
Speaker 2: bitcoin via ETFs instead of the traditional coinbase or binance route,
19:44
Speaker 2: there's still a massive amount of retail trad FI investors
19:47
Speaker 2: going to ETF route, And that's just a part of
19:49
Speaker 2: the play. The part of the play is scare retail
19:51
Speaker 2: out of the markets, get all the weekends gone, get
19:54
Speaker 2: rid of all the over leverage long positions, and then
19:57
Speaker 2: the composite man or the institutions, the whales, they can
20:00
Speaker 2: buy up that cheap price, and then they skyrocket back
20:03
Speaker 2: to the upside. So I think ETF investors are getting
20:07
Speaker 2: scared in the same way the coinbase investors are getting scared.
20:10
Speaker 2: The finance investors are getting scared. I put a tweet
20:12
Speaker 2: out this morning. Listen, like the last month and a
20:14
Speaker 2: half has been brutal. I understand why people are scared.
20:17
Speaker 2: I understand why people want to give up. It's just
20:19
Speaker 2: about getting out of your feelings. Right now, look out
20:23
Speaker 2: at what's been happening. I'll show this. You kind of
20:26
Speaker 2: mentioned it with a tweet earlier, but I want to
20:28
Speaker 2: kind of show people on the charts what this looks like.
20:31
Speaker 2: People are freaking out right now about bitcoin, despite the
20:34
Speaker 2: fact that bitcoin is only down. Let's go so the
20:37
Speaker 2: wick to yesterday only down twenty nine point five percent.
20:41
Speaker 2: Why is that important? Because literally earlier this year, we're
20:45
Speaker 2: not even have to go back years plural, we can
20:47
Speaker 2: go back months. We were down thirty one point six percent.
20:51
Speaker 2: Let's go back to one year ago, during the summer
20:54
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four, we were down thirty I think
20:57
Speaker 2: this one's gonna be thirty two percent. Let me get
20:58
Speaker 2: the exact number, thirty excuse me, thirty three percent. So
21:02
Speaker 2: we're not even down as far as we've been in
21:04
Speaker 2: the last two years, and yet people are freaking out
21:07
Speaker 2: and convinced that the bull market is over and done.
21:10
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna look at individual all coins, but let's
21:12
Speaker 2: just take a look at total three. Ethereum has had
21:15
Speaker 2: a pretty good run here recently. It's one of the
21:17
Speaker 2: few coins that is nearer to its previous all time high.
21:20
Speaker 2: But total three is all of the all coins excluding ethereum.
21:24
Speaker 2: Even when you look at this, yes, certain all coins
21:26
Speaker 2: are down forty to fifty sixty percent, but Total three
21:30
Speaker 2: has only been down. I'm not gonna count this wig
21:32
Speaker 2: the scam wick. I'm gonna count the lowest the other day,
21:34
Speaker 2: twenty six point nine percent. Why is bitcoin dominance falling?
21:38
Speaker 2: Because all coins actually are not even falling as far
21:41
Speaker 2: as bitcoin is not. A lot of that probably has
21:44
Speaker 2: to do with z cash and the massive climb that
21:45
Speaker 2: it's made. But my overall point here is people are
21:49
Speaker 2: freaking out and they're acting like all hell is broken loose,
21:52
Speaker 2: and we're setting records for the worst crashes in the
21:55
Speaker 2: history of crypto. And that's not the truth. That's not
21:58
Speaker 2: what the charts say, but it is what the gut,
22:01
Speaker 2: feeling and emotions are on the Internet and most retail investors,
22:05
Speaker 2: I'm just being honest, Most people invest heavily with their emotions,
22:10
Speaker 2: not with their brain looking at the charts, thinking critically,
22:13
Speaker 2: understanding that it's best to buy when people are scared,
22:16
Speaker 2: and it's best to sell when people are happy. Right now,
22:19
Speaker 2: people are scared at levels we have seen previously. Mark
22:23
Speaker 2: major bottom.
22:24
Speaker 1: Positions if you go into the other's chart, because that'll
22:27
Speaker 1: give you more of an all coin comparison.
22:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, what do you.
22:31
Speaker 1: Think about that? If you remove some of the majors
22:34
Speaker 1: out obviously outside Bitcoin and eath, now you pull off
22:37
Speaker 1: XRP and Solana, Yeah, because that's the real all coin
22:40
Speaker 1: market I think in comparison.
22:43
Speaker 2: I'll have to add this to my list of thinking
22:45
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on. Here's what I would say
22:47
Speaker 2: that's stepping out standing out to me at the moment,
22:50
Speaker 2: we clearly did not get a higher high end here
22:52
Speaker 2: in September twenty five, we were lower than back here
22:55
Speaker 2: in December twenty four. But I'm gonna comment that here
22:57
Speaker 2: in a second. But I think what's more important than
23:00
Speaker 2: saying we didn't get a higher high is we didn't
23:02
Speaker 2: get a lower low either. Yes, there's a scam wick here.
23:05
Speaker 2: I'm not going to count that. When you look at this,
23:07
Speaker 2: we're staying on the trend line of support to the upside.
23:11
Speaker 2: This is actually this actually makes it a little better.
23:14
Speaker 2: You know, back here in December of twenty four down
23:17
Speaker 2: to April, we saw a sixty one percent correction and
23:21
Speaker 2: the bull market was not quite over. If you go
23:22
Speaker 2: back before that here in the summer of twenty five,
23:25
Speaker 2: you know, March twenty four down to the summer of
23:28
Speaker 2: twenty four, we saw a fifty eight percent correction. Well,
23:31
Speaker 2: because we didn't put in a higher high, I can
23:32
Speaker 2: just go ahead and tell you the alt coins not
23:35
Speaker 2: really that bad, only down thirty six percent. And again
23:38
Speaker 2: this is obviously excluding like you said, I have to
23:40
Speaker 2: add this excluding you said at Solana and XRP still
23:43
Speaker 2: putting in higher lows. Very good case. But here's the
23:46
Speaker 2: other thing. I'm saying, you know, if you're sitting or
23:48
Speaker 2: saying we're about to enter into a bear market, you know,
23:51
Speaker 2: I want to be very clear. I will go off
23:53
Speaker 2: this per sent I want to be very clear to
23:54
Speaker 2: people we have entered into no man's land. Anyone who's
23:57
Speaker 2: trying to say, oh, look at the history of the
24:00
Speaker 2: cycle and the history, we are in no man's land.
24:02
Speaker 2: Never have the institutions control the markets the way they
24:04
Speaker 2: have right now. But let's just say, let's say you're
24:06
Speaker 2: a person's like man, we've entered the bear market. We're
24:08
Speaker 2: here to go because of the Fourier cycles in play. Well, guys,
24:12
Speaker 2: if the four your cycle, one of the things is
24:14
Speaker 2: that you have a whole year of downward action. All coins,
24:16
Speaker 2: according to this other's chart, have been in a bear
24:18
Speaker 2: market for a year, which, so your own argument would suggest,
24:22
Speaker 2: if they've been in a bear market for a whole year, historically,
24:25
Speaker 2: shouldn't all coins resume to the upside. That's not my stock,
24:27
Speaker 2: that's not my argument. That's what I'm saying. What I'm
24:29
Speaker 2: saying is, don't pay attention to four your cycles and
24:32
Speaker 2: past movements because those were under a different game, different
24:36
Speaker 2: controllers of the markets. We've changed it now. I still
24:40
Speaker 2: think though, when you look at investing in total, not
24:43
Speaker 2: just crypto, look at the stock market, look at the
24:45
Speaker 2: history of how markets move, the amount of indicators screaming
24:49
Speaker 2: a bottom is close and that the whales are about
24:52
Speaker 2: to buy it big, while retail runs scared for the hills.
24:55
Speaker 2: It's screaming at me that we're very very close at least.
24:58
Speaker 2: Maybe the bottom's not in, but we're very close at least.
25:01
Speaker 1: Let's go into two more charts. I want to take
25:03
Speaker 1: a look at the ethereum chart, because that's that one
25:07
Speaker 1: is interesting to me because obviously we dipped just under
25:09
Speaker 1: three k. Ethereum, of course has bounced much like bitcoin
25:14
Speaker 1: has gone back up to ninety three. Where would you
25:15
Speaker 1: look at ethereum right now in terms of trend lines.
25:20
Speaker 2: In terms of trend lines, I don't know if I
25:22
Speaker 2: have a trend line in play right now for Etherorum.
25:24
Speaker 2: Obviously we had a nice falling channel here weeks ago.
25:28
Speaker 2: That this is a barish move because we broke the
25:30
Speaker 2: little support level, treated it as resistance. This one is
25:34
Speaker 2: where I was looking at, Like I told our community once,
25:36
Speaker 2: especially after we lost this queen line. I said listen,
25:39
Speaker 2: the Golden pocket is going to be something to watch
25:41
Speaker 2: it for Ethereum. Last night Bitcoin hits Golden pocket. Are
25:44
Speaker 2: we going to say that's close enough for government work?
25:45
Speaker 2: Maybe that is Like you know, I told my community,
25:48
Speaker 2: twenty nine to thirty is going to be an area
25:50
Speaker 2: to watch, maybe even as low as twenty eight fifty.
25:52
Speaker 2: We got to what is that about twenty nine to
25:54
Speaker 2: fifty one? So within twenty dollars of what I was saying,
25:57
Speaker 2: is that good enough? Obviously we're getting a little bounced
25:59
Speaker 2: by here. Let's not rejoice. Let's not say for sure
26:03
Speaker 2: the bottom is in, because we haven't even gotten back
26:05
Speaker 2: into a bull trend on minor time frames right now.
26:07
Speaker 2: But we did hit a major marker right there for ethereum.
26:11
Speaker 2: So trend line, I don't have a trend line to show,
26:13
Speaker 2: but I do think that golden pocket was something to watch,
26:16
Speaker 2: and we skimmed it got very close to it last night.
26:19
Speaker 2: Several other all coins dipped to it or leaven a
26:21
Speaker 2: little bit below. I think that's a good sign. I
26:24
Speaker 2: think Ethereum is one of the coins that should benefit
26:26
Speaker 2: the most from those other things I showed you. USDT
26:28
Speaker 2: dominance looks like it's about the top goal of the
26:31
Speaker 2: death cross that we haven't even mentioned that in the
26:33
Speaker 2: show today. The death cross that just happened, And I
26:36
Speaker 2: told our community, I don't care if you're bullish or bearish.
26:39
Speaker 2: Look at the history, not just in crypto, in the
26:42
Speaker 2: stock market as well of the death cross. Whether you're
26:44
Speaker 2: in a bull market or a bear market, you're at
26:47
Speaker 2: least in a short term bottom. Within the couple of
26:49
Speaker 2: days in twenty twenty two we had one, it was
26:52
Speaker 2: a bear market. We still saw bitcoin rally forty eight
26:55
Speaker 2: percent before continuing to the downside after that death cross happened.
26:58
Speaker 2: So even if you're listening this and you're in a
27:00
Speaker 2: bear market, you should be saying, hey, I think that
27:03
Speaker 2: bitcoin and all coins should at least have a dead
27:06
Speaker 2: cat bounce. If you're bullish and you think we're in
27:08
Speaker 2: a bull market, you're buying because you're preparing for new
27:11
Speaker 2: all time highs and Q one of twenty nighty six.
27:13
Speaker 1: If you take a look at the eighth bitcoin chart
27:15
Speaker 1: right now, because it had been declining significantly for quite
27:19
Speaker 1: some time and now eth seems to have stabilized, what
27:23
Speaker 1: do you make of this right now?
27:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely stabilized. I need to look more at
27:28
Speaker 2: this one here to get a better perception. We don't
27:32
Speaker 2: have a bull trend right, so again I don't want
27:34
Speaker 2: to Oh, this is a four hour chart. Excuse me.
27:36
Speaker 2: Let me back out here towards the weekly chart. We
27:39
Speaker 2: don't have a bull trend here either, right. I would say,
27:41
Speaker 2: you're gonna feel really good once we clear about point
27:44
Speaker 2: zero five seven, the highs we had back in June
27:46
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four. But you do have okay, you
27:48
Speaker 2: do have a bull trend on smaller time frames. I
27:50
Speaker 2: was looking at the four hour chart. We had this
27:51
Speaker 2: nice correction here. Let me let me just see here
27:53
Speaker 2: what our indicators are kind of saying. A weekly chart
27:56
Speaker 2: not a bisignal yet, but very close that osc lator.
28:00
Speaker 2: So we have some bullish divergence and it's slowly starting
28:02
Speaker 2: to round over right there. Yeah, bullish divergence because of
28:05
Speaker 2: that little low right in there. So bullish divergence arounding over.
28:09
Speaker 2: We don't have a weekly by signal, but I'm going
28:11
Speaker 2: to assume the daily chart is either triggering or yep,
28:14
Speaker 2: there we go. We have a daily by signal, very
28:16
Speaker 2: very good sign that would suggest to me we should
28:19
Speaker 2: have a pot. We're already starting this rally, but we
28:20
Speaker 2: should have a nice pop back up. I'm gonna put
28:22
Speaker 2: this at the minimum here. When I get this indicator
28:25
Speaker 2: pop up, I'm gonna look right here at this resistance
28:28
Speaker 2: point zero three to five. That just for the daily chart.
28:31
Speaker 2: If we break through that one and the weekly starts
28:33
Speaker 2: to go bullish again. Weekly BI signals so far have
28:37
Speaker 2: been very, very good at having explosive moves in the
28:39
Speaker 2: rest of crypto space, while resistance at point zero four
28:42
Speaker 2: wouldn't make sense. This is one that I think once
28:44
Speaker 2: that weekly BI signal confirms, I do actually think this
28:48
Speaker 2: one can start to make that major move up back
28:50
Speaker 2: towards all time highs for ethover bitcoin.
28:54
Speaker 1: Dominance. This is one that's talked about a lot, Bitcoin
28:58
Speaker 1: dominant starting to falter slight. How does that play into
29:01
Speaker 1: the market.
29:03
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you this, Paul, you've been watching this
29:06
Speaker 2: longer than me. Have you ever seen a sustained A
29:09
Speaker 2: day or two is not a big deal. Have you
29:11
Speaker 2: ever seen a sustained time period where bitcoin and bitcoin
29:15
Speaker 2: domis both fell that all coins didn't do something dramatic.
29:19
Speaker 2: I mean, all coin season happens, right, all coin seasons
29:21
Speaker 2: where all coins go berserk and bitcoin corrects for a
29:23
Speaker 2: short period of time is one place. But I was
29:26
Speaker 2: showing my community the other day as well. If you
29:28
Speaker 2: think we're in a bear market based off this chart,
29:30
Speaker 2: I don't know what you're expecting to come next, because
29:33
Speaker 2: bear markets start when it's extremely low. Bull markets start
29:39
Speaker 2: when it gets extremely high. Right now, we have sustained
29:43
Speaker 2: and confirmed on the weekly chart, a lower high confirming
29:47
Speaker 2: a bear trend on the bitcoin dominas chart. And it's
29:50
Speaker 2: just a weird world to think that we're gonna watch
29:53
Speaker 2: a bear market happen and at the same time watch
29:55
Speaker 2: bitcoin dominance continue to trend down towards the fifty. This
29:59
Speaker 2: will happen during a bull trend, not during a bear trend.
30:02
Speaker 2: So this is another there's a handful. I think I
30:04
Speaker 2: have like eight or nine reasons right now that I'm
30:06
Speaker 2: still excuting bullish. This is one of them. This is
30:09
Speaker 2: still screaming at me. Bottom is inn close.
30:12
Speaker 1: Last token. Uh, let's go into Solana real quick, because
30:15
Speaker 1: this is another one that I think a lot of
30:16
Speaker 1: viewers on our channel and probably yours, are concerned about. Solana.
30:20
Speaker 1: Nice little move here over the last day or two.
30:22
Speaker 1: Where do you like?
30:24
Speaker 2: Well, this is one I think I actually said on
30:25
Speaker 2: your show a couple of weeks ago. I had a
30:27
Speaker 2: couple targets. It's funny, all three of them were hit.
30:30
Speaker 2: I had a target here at one seventy one. We
30:32
Speaker 2: had a short term bounce. I had a target down here,
30:34
Speaker 2: didn't quite actually didn't say one forty six. I think
30:36
Speaker 2: I said one fifty bounce close to one fifty. But
30:38
Speaker 2: I told people, hey, be prepared that maybe Solana is
30:43
Speaker 2: going to have a reason to drop down here towards
30:46
Speaker 2: one thirty. Not only is that the golden pocket on
30:48
Speaker 2: the fibonacci, this also was this large formation in play
30:52
Speaker 2: that is called a rising wedge pattern. When you get
30:55
Speaker 2: that breakout, it suggests one twenty seven ish one thirty
30:59
Speaker 2: ish was a target to water. We officially now have
31:01
Speaker 2: closed my lowest target there, and we're starting to get
31:05
Speaker 2: the bi single screeping back in on these lower charts,
31:07
Speaker 2: daily charts, extremely over sold. Here on the RSID, we're
31:10
Speaker 2: starting to get a rounding over. We're gonna be a
31:13
Speaker 2: little bit away from a weekly buy single, which will
31:14
Speaker 2: give me extreme confidence. But you are starting to see
31:17
Speaker 2: the four hour, the one hour the twelve hour, and
31:19
Speaker 2: slowly but surely the day hour turn bullish. The day hour,
31:22
Speaker 2: the daily chart turned bullish after hitting the major support again.
31:29
Speaker 2: I think Solana it either bottomed out the other day
31:33
Speaker 2: or it's extremely close.
31:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, the other day, being right there at one twenty nine,
31:38
Speaker 1: I guess sixty, which is where we are right now
31:41
Speaker 1: on the four hour. It's looking pretty good because we've
31:44
Speaker 1: had just a slew of green candles. So listen, there's
31:48
Speaker 1: a lot to watch right now, guys. There's a lot
31:49
Speaker 1: of news gonna continue to hit. We're gonna keep this
31:53
Speaker 1: one tight. We'll definitely bring Tam back on. We'll cover
31:56
Speaker 1: some more in terms of all coin portfolios to maybe
31:58
Speaker 1: look at for next year, how to deal within the year, strategies.
32:03
Speaker 1: All that good stuff is going to be coming up soon.
32:05
Speaker 1: Make sure and subscribe. If you haven't hit Tim's channel,
32:07
Speaker 1: make sure and do that. Tim, thanks so much for
32:09
Speaker 1: coming in.
32:10
Speaker 2: Absolutely thanks for having me.
32:11
Speaker 1: Paul, you bet are you guys know what to do?
32:14
Speaker 1: Become a Diamond Circle member. It is the place where
32:18
Speaker 1: you guys can get additional content from us. We always
32:20
Speaker 1: leave a link down below. Catch me on x app.
32:22
Speaker 1: Paul Baron We'll catch you next time, right here on
32:24
Speaker 1: the Paul Baron Show.
32:26
Speaker 4: Thanks