Latest / Silicon & Shale Podcast / Who’s on the Hook: A 2030 Pipe, a Take-or-Pay Hyperscaler, and the Autonomy Ladder
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: I read a dating profile this week.
- 0:01SPEAKER_01: No name, no photo, no hometown.
- 0:03SPEAKER_01: Just one line at the top.
- 0:04SPEAKER_01: A rated hyperscaler.
- 0:05SPEAKER_00: That's not a dating profile.
- 0:07SPEAKER_00: That's a credit rating wearing a nice shirt.
- 0:09SPEAKER_01: It's a dating profile.
- 0:10SPEAKER_01: Think about it.
- 0:11SPEAKER_01: Kinder Morgan, October 21st.
- 0:13SPEAKER_01: Their NGPL pipeline takes a final investment decision on a project called Permian Link.
- 0:18SPEAKER_01: About $4.2 billion.
- 0:20SPEAKER_01: About 2.8 billion cubic feet a day.
- 0:22SPEAKER_01: About 434 miles of new pipe.
- 0:25SPEAKER_01: And who's it for?
- 0:26SPEAKER_01: New power generation for an A-rated hyperscaler.
- 0:28SPEAKER_01: That's the whole bio.
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: Doesn't like long walks on the beach.
- 0:31SPEAKER_00: Likes long-term take-or-pay transportation agreements.
- 0:34SPEAKER_01: Which, honestly, is the most attractive thing you can put in a midstream bio.
- 0:37SPEAKER_01: That's the part I keep coming back to.
- 0:39SPEAKER_01: They didn't say they're exploring.
- 0:40SPEAKER_01: They didn't say memorandum of understanding.
- 0:42SPEAKER_01: They said final investment decision and take-or-pay.
- 0:45SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'll be the one who still kind of likes it.
- 0:48SPEAKER_00: That's real.
- 0:49SPEAKER_00: That's a company putting its own money down because a customer agreed to pay for
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: the space, whether they use it or not.
- 0:53SPEAKER_01: Agreed.
- 0:54SPEAKER_01: And here's the small print I want you to hang on to.
- 0:56SPEAKER_01: In service, third quarter of 2030.
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: Subject to the timely receipt of all required permits and approvals.
- 1:02SPEAKER_00: 2030.
- 1:02SPEAKER_01: Write that on your hand.
- 1:04SPEAKER_01: 2030.
- 1:05SPEAKER_01: We're going to come back to it.
- 1:06SPEAKER_00: I'm not writing on my hand.
- 1:08SPEAKER_00: I'm writing it on the sticky note from last week.
- 1:10SPEAKER_01: The one that says vertically integrated AI utility.
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: There's room on the back.
- 1:14SPEAKER_01: Because that's the shape of the whole week.
- 1:16SPEAKER_01: Last month, the conversation was, did they sign anything?
- 1:19SPEAKER_01: This week, somebody signed something real with a date four years out.
- 1:23SPEAKER_01: So the question changed.
- 1:24SPEAKER_01: It's not, is it real anymore?
- 1:26SPEAKER_01: It's who's on the hook if it's late, and who's holding the override switch when something trips.
- 1:30SPEAKER_00: Who pays and who's in control?
- 1:32SPEAKER_01: That's the episode.
- 1:33SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Silicon & Shale, where the oil patch meets the algorithm.
- 1:36SPEAKER_00: This is episode 21, for the week of October 26th, 2026.
- 1:40SPEAKER_00: I'm Packer.
- 1:41SPEAKER_01: And I'm Derek.
- 1:42SPEAKER_01: Straight, no dating profile.
- 1:43SPEAKER_01: Straight.
- 2:06SPEAKER_01: Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America, NGPL,
- 2:09SPEAKER_01: which Kinder Morgan operates and owns a piece of,
- 2:11SPEAKER_01: reached final investment decision on Permian Link, about $4.2 billion total.
- 2:16SPEAKER_01: Kinder Morgan's share is about $1.6 billion,
- 2:18SPEAKER_01: about 2.8 BCF a day of capacity,
- 2:21SPEAKER_01: about 434 miles of new pipeline plus compression, metering, and interconnects.
- 2:25SPEAKER_01: It serves new power generation for an A-rated hyperscaler and it's backed
- 2:28SPEAKER_01: by long-term take-or-pay transportation agreements.
- 2:31SPEAKER_00: And the route?
- 2:32SPEAKER_01: Reuters reported on the 21st that it runs from the Permian near Pecos County,
- 2:35SPEAKER_01: Texas, up to NGPL's MidContinent system.
- 2:38SPEAKER_01: And Reuters says executives told the call that other customers beyond
- 2:41SPEAKER_01: the Anchor hyperscaler have shown interest.
- 2:43SPEAKER_00: So the MidCon gets a fat new straw from the Permian.
- 2:46SPEAKER_01: That's the plumbing.
- 2:47SPEAKER_01: And it wasn't alone in the release.
- 2:49SPEAKER_01: Southern Natural Gas,
- 2:50SPEAKER_01: also kinder,
- 2:51SPEAKER_01: has the Southeast connector,
- 2:52SPEAKER_01: up to about 2.6 BCF a day, and Reuters puts it at about 470 miles.
- 2:57SPEAKER_01: Phase start beginning fourth quarter 2030.
- 3:00SPEAKER_01: And Kinder says its expansion backlog rose to $14.4 billion,
- 3:04SPEAKER_01: including a record $13.2 billion of natural gas projects.
- 3:07SPEAKER_00: 2.8 BCF a day on paper.
- 3:09SPEAKER_01: And zero molecules until 2030.
- 3:11SPEAKER_01: That's the steel side.
- 3:13SPEAKER_01: Today what's ordered is a decision.
- 3:14SPEAKER_01: Nothing's in the ground.
- 3:15SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 3:16SPEAKER_00: But here's where I push.
- 3:17SPEAKER_00: Every pipe on Earth was a decision before it was in the ground.
- 3:20SPEAKER_00: You're making it sound like FID is a press release.
- 3:23SPEAKER_00: It's not.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: FID is the board saying, spend the money.
- 3:26SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying it's fake.
- 3:27SPEAKER_01: I'm saying it's four years from a molecule.
- 3:29SPEAKER_01: Let me count it for you.
- 3:30SPEAKER_00: Here we go.
- 3:32SPEAKER_01: Third quarter 2030.
- 3:33SPEAKER_01: From this Friday, that's roughly 200 rig count Fridays.
- 3:36SPEAKER_01: 15 or 16 more Kinder Morgan earnings calls.
- 3:39SPEAKER_01: At least one full federal permit cycle plus whatever the states want.
- 3:42SPEAKER_01: A kid who's in eighth grade right now gets a driver's license and maybe a truck
- 3:45SPEAKER_01: before that pipe flows.
- 3:46SPEAKER_00: That's a lot of Fridays.
- 3:48SPEAKER_01: It's a lot of Fridays.
- 3:49SPEAKER_01: And none of that makes it a bad project.
- 3:51SPEAKER_01: It makes it a long one.
- 3:52SPEAKER_00: Fine.
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: But the take-or-pay part matters more than the calendar.
- 3:55SPEAKER_00: If the hyperscaler changes its mind in 2028, Kinder doesn't eat the empty pipe.
- 4:00SPEAKER_00: The shipper pays for the space either way.
- 4:02SPEAKER_00: That's the whole point of the contract.
- 4:03SPEAKER_01: That's true for the pipe.
- 4:05SPEAKER_01: Is it true for the power plant the gas is going to?
- 4:07SPEAKER_00: We don't know.
- 4:08SPEAKER_00: The plant's not named.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: The site's not named.
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: The customer's not named.
- 4:12SPEAKER_01: Right, so what's on the hook is clear for one link of the chain.
- 4:14SPEAKER_01: The pipe company is protected.
- 4:15SPEAKER_01: Everything downstream of the meter we can't see.
- 4:18SPEAKER_00: I'll give you that.
- 4:19SPEAKER_00: But I still say it's the most real thing this year in gas for AI.
- 4:22SPEAKER_00: Somebody poured money, not just ink.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: Poured a decision.
- 4:25SPEAKER_01: The money pours over four years.
- 4:26SPEAKER_00: You're impossible.
- 4:27SPEAKER_01: I'm a calendar.
- 4:29SPEAKER_00: Which brings us to the thing that should have moved and didn't.
- 4:31SPEAKER_01: The rig count.
- 4:32SPEAKER_01: And before we do it, I owe you a confession.
- 4:34SPEAKER_00: Oh, good.
- 4:35SPEAKER_01: For about a year,
- 4:35SPEAKER_01: I've assumed that all this new data center gas demand would show up in the rig count
- 4:39SPEAKER_01: by now.
- 4:39SPEAKER_01: Some kind of bump, at least in gas rigs.
- 4:41SPEAKER_01: It hasn't.
- 4:43SPEAKER_01: I was wrong on timing.
- 4:44SPEAKER_00: The quiet part is you wanted it to be true because it would make the story tidy.
- 4:47SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's the quiet part.
- 4:49SPEAKER_01: Okay, the numbers.
- 4:50SPEAKER_01: Baker Hughes, weekend at October 23rd.
- 4:53SPEAKER_01: The U.S. count held at 603, flat for a second straight week.
- 4:57SPEAKER_01: A year ago, it was 550.
- 4:59SPEAKER_01: Oil rigs up 1 to 460.
- 5:01SPEAKER_01: Gas rigs down 1 to 132.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: Gas went down.
- 5:04SPEAKER_00: In the week of a 2.8 BCF pipe for an AI customer.
- 5:07SPEAKER_01: By one rig,
- 5:08SPEAKER_01: Permian flat at 272 against 250 a year ago,
- 5:12SPEAKER_01: Eagle Ford up 2 to 51,
- 5:14SPEAKER_01: Haynesville flat at 56, New Mexico up 2 to 98, Texas down 1 to 277.
- 5:19SPEAKER_00: So the Haynesville,
- 5:20SPEAKER_00: which is the gas basin everybody points at for Gulf Coast power, didn't move.
- 5:24SPEAKER_01: Didn't move, and the service companies told you why they don't expect it to.
- 5:27SPEAKER_01: Halliburton October 20th,
- 5:29SPEAKER_01: third quarter revenue $5.7 billion,
- 5:31SPEAKER_01: flat with the second quarter, adjusted earnings 60 cents a share.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: And the outlook?
- 5:36SPEAKER_01: Jeff Miller, the CEO, gave an early look at 2027.
- 5:39SPEAKER_01: Mid-single-digit revenue growth, operating margins of about 15%.
- 5:43SPEAKER_01: And here's the line.
- 5:44SPEAKER_01: It assumes a flat North America market and does not require any recovery
- 5:47SPEAKER_01: in North America hydraulic fracturing.
- 5:49SPEAKER_01: To us, that recovery is purely upside.
- 5:51SPEAKER_00: Purely upside?
- 5:52SPEAKER_00: That's a company telling you, in writing, not to wait for it.
- 5:55SPEAKER_01: And one serious note.
- 5:56SPEAKER_01: Halliburton's outlook sits against
- 5:58SPEAKER_01: the wider global supply disruption that's been hitting markets this year.
- 6:01SPEAKER_01: That's real and it's hurting people and we're not going to riff on it.
- 6:04SPEAKER_00: Agreed.
- 6:04SPEAKER_01: So, the honest read.
- 6:06SPEAKER_01: A hyperscaler signs a take or pay pipe,
- 6:08SPEAKER_01: the rig count shrugs,
- 6:09SPEAKER_01: and one of the biggest frack companies in North America plans for flat.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: Which I'd argue is completely consistent.
- 6:14SPEAKER_00: Nobody drills for gas that ships in 2030.
- 6:17SPEAKER_00: You drill for the strip in front of you.
- 6:19SPEAKER_01: That's fair.
- 6:19SPEAKER_01: The demand is on a different calendar than the drill bit.
- 6:22SPEAKER_00: But I'll push on the other half of your confession.
- 6:24SPEAKER_00: You said you were wrong on timing.
- 6:26SPEAKER_00: I think you might be wrong on mechanism, too.
- 6:28SPEAKER_01: Go on.
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: The Permian is mostly oil wells that happen to make a lot of gas.
- 6:32SPEAKER_00: Associated gas.
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: If somebody needs more Permian gas in 2030, a lot of it shows up because oil rigs keep running.
- 6:37SPEAKER_00: Not because anybody adds a gas rig.
- 6:39SPEAKER_00: So the gas rig count might be the wrong place to look for this at all.
- 6:42SPEAKER_01: That's a real point.
- 6:43SPEAKER_01: The pipe doesn't need a gas rig.
- 6:44SPEAKER_01: It needs oil economics to hold and take away to exist.
- 6:47SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 6:48SPEAKER_00: So the signal you wanted may never show up as a gas rig in the Permian.
- 6:51SPEAKER_00: If it shows up anywhere first, maybe it's in a basin where people drill for gas on purpose.
- 6:55SPEAKER_01: Which is the Haynesville, which was flat at 56.
- 6:58SPEAKER_00: Which was flat at 56.
- 6:59SPEAKER_00: So, nothing yet.
- 7:01SPEAKER_00: But at least now we know which number to watch.
- 7:03SPEAKER_01: I'll take the correction.
- 7:04SPEAKER_01: Wrong on timing, maybe wrong on mechanism.
- 7:06SPEAKER_01: Two for one.
- 7:07SPEAKER_00: Which is a pun-adjacent sentence, and I'll let it go.
- 7:09SPEAKER_01: It wasn't a pun.
- 7:10SPEAKER_00: It was a drill bit of a pun.
- 7:12SPEAKER_01: Oof.
- 7:13SPEAKER_01: Okay, that's the one.
- 7:14SPEAKER_01: We graded it.
- 7:14SPEAKER_01: It's a D. Moving on and never coming back.
- 7:17SPEAKER_00: Fair.
- 7:17SPEAKER_01: Now the story that, for me, is the hook of the whole episode.
- 7:20SPEAKER_01: Louisiana.
- 7:21SPEAKER_00: Ten gas plants.
- 7:22SPEAKER_00: One data center.
- 7:23SPEAKER_01: And I want to be really careful here because this is one side's argument.
- 7:26SPEAKER_01: What we're reading is a commentary by Paul Arbaje of the Union
- 7:29SPEAKER_01: of Concerned Scientists, which is an advocacy group that opposes this plan, see.
- 7:33SPEAKER_01: The Lens in New Orleans republished it on October 22nd.
- 7:36SPEAKER_01: Everything I say next is what UCS says.
- 7:38SPEAKER_00: Understood.
- 7:39SPEAKER_00: Go.
- 7:39SPEAKER_01: According to UCS,
- 7:40SPEAKER_01: Energy Louisiana already won approval for three gas plants for the first phase
- 7:43SPEAKER_01: of Meta's Hyperion data center in Richland Parish.
- 7:46SPEAKER_01: It's applied for seven more under the state's fast-track process.
- 7:50SPEAKER_01: At 754 megawatts each, UCS says 10 plants total about 7.54 gigawatts.
- 7:55SPEAKER_01: The final vote at the Louisiana Public Service Commission is set for December.
- 7:58SPEAKER_00: And the money question?
- 8:00SPEAKER_01: UCS cites Entergy's own estimate that about $13.6 billion
- 8:03SPEAKER_01: of new generation capital would be about 75% paid down at the end
- 8:06SPEAKER_01: of Meta's 20-year supply contract,
- 8:09SPEAKER_01: which by UCS's math leaves about $3.4 billion for other customers.
- 8:13SPEAKER_00: The tail.
- 8:13SPEAKER_01: The tail.
- 8:14SPEAKER_01: And there's a court piece.
- 8:16SPEAKER_01: Earthjustice,
- 8:16SPEAKER_01: representing UCS and the Alliance for Affordable Energy,
- 8:19SPEAKER_01: appealed in late September to a state district court in Baton Rouge.
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: That was after commissioners voted 3-0 to deny a subpoena for Meta's documents
- 8:26SPEAKER_01: on investment, jobs, and electricity demand.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: And we don't have Entergy's or Meta's side in this source?
- 8:30SPEAKER_01: We don't, so we're not going to characterize it.
- 8:33SPEAKER_01: This is one party's argument in front of a judge.
- 8:35SPEAKER_01: Nobody's ruled.
- 8:36SPEAKER_00: So here's why you said it's the hook.
- 8:38SPEAKER_01: Put it next to Permian Link.
- 8:40SPEAKER_01: Kinder's pipe is take or pay.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: If the customer walks, the customer still pays for the capacity.
- 8:45SPEAKER_01: The bill sits with the shipper.
- 8:47SPEAKER_01: In Louisiana,
- 8:48SPEAKER_01: the argument UCS is making is that with a regulated utility plant,
- 8:51SPEAKER_01: the leftover cost after the contract can land on ratepayers.
- 8:55SPEAKER_00: Same customer type.
- 8:56SPEAKER_00: Different contract.
- 8:57SPEAKER_00: Different person on the hook.
- 8:58SPEAKER_01: That's it.
- 8:59SPEAKER_01: Same AI appetite.
- 9:00SPEAKER_01: One structure puts the risk on the buyer.
- 9:02SPEAKER_01: The other, according to the people suing, can put the tail on everybody else.
- 9:05SPEAKER_00: I'll disagree a little.
- 9:07SPEAKER_00: You're making take or pay sound like a magic shield.
- 9:10SPEAKER_00: It's only as good as the counterparty.
- 9:11SPEAKER_00: A rated is doing a lot of work in that dating profile.
- 9:14SPEAKER_01: That's fair.
- 9:15SPEAKER_01: And A-rated today is a rating, not a promise, in 2040.
- 9:18SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 9:19SPEAKER_00: So the shield's real, but somebody still has to stay solvent for 20 years.
- 9:22SPEAKER_01: And I'd add one more thing on Louisiana because it's easy to turn this
- 9:25SPEAKER_01: into good guys and bad guys.
- 9:27SPEAKER_01: We're not doing that.
- 9:28SPEAKER_01: A utility building plans for a big new customer is not a scandal by itself.
- 9:32SPEAKER_01: Utilities build for load.
- 9:33SPEAKER_01: That's the job.
- 9:34SPEAKER_00: The question is the shape of the deal.
- 9:36SPEAKER_01: The question is the shape of the deal.
- 9:39SPEAKER_01: UCS's argument is that the fast-track process and the private documents make it hard
- 9:42SPEAKER_01: for anyone else to check the shape.
- 9:44SPEAKER_01: That's the argument going to court.
- 9:46SPEAKER_01: Whether a judge agrees is a different question, and we'll read the ruling when there is one.
- 9:50SPEAKER_00: And the vote's in December.
- 9:51SPEAKER_01: The vote's in December, per UCS, so this one's on a much shorter clock than the pipe.
- 9:56SPEAKER_00: Which is kind of the funny thing about this week.
- 9:58SPEAKER_00: The pipe with the clean contract is four years out.
- 10:00SPEAKER_00: The fight about the messy contract gets decided before New Year's.
- 10:03SPEAKER_01: The slow one has the clear bill, the fast one has the argument.
- 10:06SPEAKER_01: 20 years.
- 10:07SPEAKER_01: Count that one.
- 10:08SPEAKER_00: No.
- 10:09SPEAKER_00: One calendar per segment.
- 10:10SPEAKER_01: Fair.
- 10:10SPEAKER_01: That's the EMP block.
- 10:12SPEAKER_00: AI block.
- 10:13SPEAKER_00: And we start with a service company,
- 10:14SPEAKER_00: because that's where the AI money is actually showing up on an income statement.
- 10:18SPEAKER_01: SLB.
- 10:18SPEAKER_00: SLB.
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: Third quarter, October 23rd.
- 10:21SPEAKER_00: Revenue $9.45 billion, up 5% sequentially and 6% year-on-year.
- 10:26SPEAKER_00: Fine.
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: Not the story.
- 10:28SPEAKER_00: The story is a line item called Data Center Solutions.
- 10:31SPEAKER_01: The business where SLB builds stuff for data centers.
- 10:33SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 10:34SPEAKER_00: $230 million of revenue in the quarter.
- 10:37SPEAKER_00: Up 23% sequentially.
- 10:39SPEAKER_00: Up 76% year-on-year.
- 10:41SPEAKER_00: And they say it's expanding into Asia.
- 10:43SPEAKER_01: And digital.
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: Digital revenue was $693 million, essentially flat sequentially.
- 10:48SPEAKER_00: Digital annual recurring revenue, $1.04 billion, up 13% year-on-year.
- 10:53SPEAKER_01: So the business of selling AI and software to the oil patch grew slower than
- 10:56SPEAKER_01: the business of building rooms for other people's AI.
- 10:58SPEAKER_00: That's the headline I'd write.
- 10:59SPEAKER_00: The data center line is still a third the size of digital,
- 11:02SPEAKER_00: but it's the one with the steep slope.
- 11:03SPEAKER_01: And the CEO.
- 11:05SPEAKER_00: Olivier Lepouche said,
- 11:06SPEAKER_00: quote, AI is driving unprecedented investment in data center infrastructure.
- 11:10SPEAKER_00: And they pointed back to their previously announced Kelvion acquisition.
- 11:13SPEAKER_01: Which verb landed this week though?
- 11:14SPEAKER_01: Driving unprecedented investment is a mood.
- 11:17SPEAKER_00: Reported.
- 11:18SPEAKER_00: The verb is reported.
- 11:19SPEAKER_00: 230 million is booked revenue in a quarter.
- 11:22SPEAKER_00: That's not a partnership.
- 11:23SPEAKER_00: That's a number on an earnings release.
- 11:25SPEAKER_01: Okay, that one counts.
- 11:26SPEAKER_01: And the drilling side?
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: More than 750,000 feet of automated drilling in the quarter.
- 11:30SPEAKER_00: Up nearly 50% year on year.
- 11:32SPEAKER_01: Out of how many total feet?
- 11:34SPEAKER_00: They didn't say.
- 11:35SPEAKER_00: In what we have.
- 11:36SPEAKER_00: So we don't know if that's a big slice or a small one.
- 11:39SPEAKER_01: And we don't know how much
- 11:40SPEAKER_01: of digital is actually AI versus software that's been around for 15 years with
- 11:43SPEAKER_01: a new label.
- 11:44SPEAKER_00: Also true.
- 11:45SPEAKER_00: SLB doesn't break that out.
- 11:47SPEAKER_00: I'll say this, though.
- 11:49SPEAKER_00: If you remember EP20, we talked about drill plan.
- 11:52SPEAKER_00: This is the other end of that.
- 11:53SPEAKER_00: Planning tools upstream, and then automated footage actually getting drilled.
- 11:57SPEAKER_01: Footage is steel.
- 11:58SPEAKER_01: I like footage.
- 11:59SPEAKER_00: You like anything with a unit.
- 12:01SPEAKER_01: I like anything you can't put in a slide without measuring first.
- 12:04SPEAKER_00: Here's my disagreement with you, though.
- 12:05SPEAKER_00: I think the data center line at SLB is the most important AI number
- 12:08SPEAKER_00: in oil field services this quarter, and you're going to tell me it's a distraction?
- 12:12SPEAKER_01: I'm going to tell you it's a hedge.
- 12:14SPEAKER_01: SLB is saying,
- 12:15SPEAKER_01: in effect,
- 12:15SPEAKER_01: the AI boom is going to buy equipment from somebody, and it might as well be us.
- 12:19SPEAKER_01: That's smart, but it's not the oil patch using AI.
- 12:22SPEAKER_01: It's the oil patch's supplier selling to AI.
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: Which is still money coming into this industry because of AI.
- 12:27SPEAKER_01: It is, but a mineral owner in Reeves County doesn't get a royalty on a cooling skid in Asia.
- 12:31SPEAKER_00: No.
- 12:32SPEAKER_00: But the same company that drills their well has a growing reason to understand power
- 12:35SPEAKER_00: and heat at a data center.
- 12:37SPEAKER_00: And that knowledge comes back.
- 12:38SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
- 12:39SPEAKER_01: You're betting on a crossover.
- 12:40SPEAKER_01: I'm saying the quarter shows two businesses on two slopes.
- 12:43SPEAKER_00: 76% is a slope.
- 12:45SPEAKER_01: On a base of $230 million, digital is a billion-dollar run rate growing 13.
- 12:49SPEAKER_01: Ask me again in four quarters.
- 12:51SPEAKER_00: I'll put it on the calendar.
- 12:53SPEAKER_01: Can I say the thing I actually like about the SLB quarter?
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: Please.
- 12:56SPEAKER_00: You've been grumpy for six minutes.
- 12:58SPEAKER_01: The automated footage.
- 12:59SPEAKER_01: 750,000 feet, up nearly 50%.
- 13:02SPEAKER_01: That's not a pilot.
- 13:03SPEAKER_01: That's not a demo rig in a parking lot.
- 13:05SPEAKER_01: That's footage in the ground drilled with automation in one quarter.
- 13:08SPEAKER_01: I don't know the share of total,
- 13:10SPEAKER_01: and I want to, but a number in feet is the number I can picture.
- 13:13SPEAKER_00: So you'd trade me the data center line for the footage line?
- 13:15SPEAKER_01: In a heartbeat.
- 13:16SPEAKER_01: The data center line tells me where SLB thinks the money is.
- 13:19SPEAKER_01: The footage line tells me what the rigs are actually doing.
- 13:22SPEAKER_00: That's fair.
- 13:23SPEAKER_00: And it connects to the ladder story, honestly.
- 13:25SPEAKER_00: Automated drilling is already a ladder.
- 13:27SPEAKER_00: Somebody decided which parts of the well the system gets to run and when
- 13:30SPEAKER_00: the driller takes it back.
- 13:31SPEAKER_01: Which is the part nobody puts in a press release.
- 13:33SPEAKER_01: Who took it back and how often?
- 13:35SPEAKER_01: Don't.
- 13:35SPEAKER_01: We're out of calendar jokes for this block.
- 13:37SPEAKER_00: Then let's go to the one I actually want to fight about.
- 13:40SPEAKER_00: Roam AI.
- 13:41SPEAKER_01: The latter.
- 13:42SPEAKER_00: The latter.
- 13:43SPEAKER_00: This is a press release, so everything here is the company's claim.
- 13:46SPEAKER_00: October 20th, out of Oklahoma City.
- 13:48SPEAKER_00: Roam AI announced the commercial release of the Roam AI technology platform.
- 13:51SPEAKER_00: It's built natively on AWS.
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: And it has three layers.
- 13:54SPEAKER_01: Go.
- 13:55SPEAKER_00: An enterprise app factory.
- 13:56SPEAKER_00: For apps, dashboards, workflows, alerts, and co-pilots.
- 14:01SPEAKER_00: A data foundation for governed data and an edge platform
- 14:04SPEAKER_00: that connects field equipment
- 14:05SPEAKER_00: and their words automates approved equipment adjustments.
- 14:08SPEAKER_01: Approved by who?
- 14:10SPEAKER_00: That's the good part.
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: They pitch it against what they call shadow AI,
- 14:13SPEAKER_00: which is everyone in the company running their own unapproved tools,
- 14:16SPEAKER_00: and then they lay out a ladder.
- 14:18SPEAKER_00: Operators begin with read-only surveillance,
- 14:20SPEAKER_00: progress to approved remote control,
- 14:22SPEAKER_00: and deploy autonomous control on wells that have demonstrated stability.
- 14:25SPEAKER_01: Three rungs.
- 14:26SPEAKER_00: Three rungs.
- 14:27SPEAKER_00: And each step,
- 14:28SPEAKER_00: they say,
- 14:28SPEAKER_00: is a joint decision by operations, IT,
- 14:30SPEAKER_00: and OT, with customer-approved operating limits, safeguards, and operator override.
- 14:35SPEAKER_00: It pairs with their autonomous ESP optimization, chemical management, and well site monitoring.
- 14:39SPEAKER_01: Which verb landed?
- 14:41SPEAKER_00: Released.
- 14:41SPEAKER_00: Commercially released.
- 14:42SPEAKER_00: That's the verb.
- 14:44SPEAKER_01: Not deployed at 40 wells.
- 14:45SPEAKER_01: Not cut failures by X.
- 14:47SPEAKER_00: No.
- 14:47SPEAKER_00: No named customers.
- 14:48SPEAKER_00: No well counts.
- 14:49SPEAKER_00: No performance results in the release.
- 14:51SPEAKER_01: Okay, so here's where I'll be the skeptic.
- 14:53SPEAKER_01: Every vendor has a maturity model.
- 14:55SPEAKER_01: It's a slide.
- 14:55SPEAKER_01: It goes from crawl to walk to run.
- 14:57SPEAKER_01: Is this ladder governance or is it marketing?
- 15:00SPEAKER_00: I think it's governance written down by a vendor,
- 15:02SPEAKER_00: which is still better than governance nobody wrote down.
- 15:04SPEAKER_01: That's a low bar.
- 15:05SPEAKER_00: It's the bar the field actually has.
- 15:07SPEAKER_00: Most automation I've seen gets turned on by one engineer on a Thursday because
- 15:11SPEAKER_00: the alarms were annoying him.
- 15:12SPEAKER_00: There's no ladder.
- 15:13SPEAKER_00: There's a guy.
- 15:14SPEAKER_01: There's always a guy.
- 15:16SPEAKER_00: So a vendor saying, out loud...
- 15:18SPEAKER_00: You don't go autonomous until the well has demonstrated stability
- 15:20SPEAKER_00: and three groups sign off and there's an override.
- 15:23SPEAKER_00: That's a standard somebody can now be held to.
- 15:25SPEAKER_01: Or a standard they can point to after something goes wrong.
- 15:28SPEAKER_01: Well, the customer approved the limits.
- 15:30SPEAKER_00: Which is also what a standard is for.
- 15:32SPEAKER_00: Somebody approved it.
- 15:33SPEAKER_00: That's the answer to who's on the hook.
- 15:35SPEAKER_01: Fine.
- 15:35SPEAKER_01: It's both.
- 15:36SPEAKER_01: It's governance and it's marketing.
- 15:38SPEAKER_01: My question is whether anyone climbs it or whether everybody stays
- 15:41SPEAKER_01: on red only forever because nobody wants to sign the second rung.
- 15:44SPEAKER_00: That's fair.
- 15:45SPEAKER_00: And Brandon Brown, the CEO, basically answers that with his line.
- 15:49SPEAKER_00: Start with one high-value problem, prove the outcome, and scale what works.
- 15:52SPEAKER_01: That's a good line.
- 15:53SPEAKER_01: I'd be embarrassed if it were mine because it's too good for a press release.
- 15:56SPEAKER_00: And this is the same idea we did in F18.
- 15:58SPEAKER_00: The set point, off, manual, auto.
- 16:01SPEAKER_00: Except Rome AI made it the whole product pitch.
- 16:03SPEAKER_01: Okay, so I'll ask you.
- 16:04SPEAKER_01: Your own well, your own ESP.
- 16:06SPEAKER_01: Which rung would you let this thing run on overnight?
- 16:09SPEAKER_00: Honestly?
- 16:10SPEAKER_01: Honestly.
- 16:10SPEAKER_00: Read only.
- 16:11SPEAKER_00: The first month.
- 16:13SPEAKER_00: That's a reluctant yes.
- 16:13SPEAKER_00: It's a yes with a leash.
- 16:15SPEAKER_00: What about you?
- 16:16SPEAKER_00: Second wrong.
- 16:16SPEAKER_00: I'd let it propose and let a person approve.
- 16:36SPEAKER_01: The reason isn't that I don't trust the math.
- 16:38SPEAKER_01: It's that when it trips at two in the morning, I want a name in the log next to the change.
- 16:42SPEAKER_01: That's the whole thing for me.
- 16:43SPEAKER_00: A name in the log.
- 16:45SPEAKER_01: A name in the log, which is a good place to stop the AI block.
- 16:48SPEAKER_00: Collision zone.
- 16:49SPEAKER_01: Where an EMP problem runs into an AI capability and one of them blinks.
- 16:53SPEAKER_00: So lay the three stories on the table together.
- 16:55SPEAKER_01: Story one.
- 16:56SPEAKER_01: A hyperscaler signs take or pay for gas that won't flow until 2030.
- 17:00SPEAKER_01: Story three.
- 17:01SPEAKER_01: Louisiana is in court arguing over who pays the tail on plants built for one data center.
- 17:05SPEAKER_01: Story 5, the well site is being asked to climb from red only to autonomous.
- 17:09SPEAKER_00: And the threat is?
- 17:10SPEAKER_01: The AI customer has zero tolerance for an outage.
- 17:13SPEAKER_01: A data center doesn't want to hear that a compressor tripped in Pecos County.
- 17:16SPEAKER_01: So that reliability expectation travels all the way up the chain,
- 17:19SPEAKER_01: power plant, pipe,
- 17:20SPEAKER_01: compression,
- 17:21SPEAKER_01: gathering, and eventually an ESP on a well somebody's cousin owns a royalty in.
- 17:25SPEAKER_00: And at every link, somebody's contract decides who eats the miss.
- 17:28SPEAKER_01: That's the E&P problem.
- 17:29SPEAKER_01: Reliability gets pushed upstream and liability gets sorted by paperwork.
- 17:33SPEAKER_00: And the AI capability is the latter.
- 17:36SPEAKER_01: The AI capability is governed autonomy with an explicit ladder and
- 17:39SPEAKER_01: a logged override,
- 17:40SPEAKER_01: so that when somebody asks,
- 17:41SPEAKER_01: who was in control when it tripped,
- 17:43SPEAKER_01: there's an actual answer,
- 17:44SPEAKER_01: not a shrug, not the system, a rung, a set of limits, a name, and a timestamp.
- 17:49SPEAKER_00: I want to push on that.
- 17:50SPEAKER_00: You're saying the answer to a 40-year infrastructure question is a log file?
- 17:54SPEAKER_01: I'm saying the log file is the part of the answer the field controls.
- 17:57SPEAKER_01: You don't control the take-or-pay contract.
- 17:59SPEAKER_01: You don't control the Louisiana Commission.
- 18:00SPEAKER_01: You do control whether you can prove what your well was doing at 2 in the morning.
- 18:04SPEAKER_00: But who's asking?
- 18:05SPEAKER_00: The data center isn't going to call the pumper.
- 18:07SPEAKER_01: Not directly, but think about the chain.
- 18:10SPEAKER_01: The power plant has a gas supply agreement.
- 18:12SPEAKER_01: The marketer behind that has supply from producers.
- 18:14SPEAKER_01: If the plant misses, somebody in that chain is going to ask why.
- 18:17SPEAKER_01: And the first time a big buyer's diligence team asks a producer,
- 18:20SPEAKER_01: show me your uptime and your control history.
- 18:22SPEAKER_01: You either have it or you don't.
- 18:23SPEAKER_00: Okay, here's my real objection.
- 18:25SPEAKER_00: I think you're overselling how much of this reaches a single well.
- 18:28SPEAKER_00: 2.8 BCF a day is fed by thousands of wells.
- 18:31SPEAKER_00: No single ESP is going to strand a hyperscaler.
- 18:34SPEAKER_01: Agreed.
- 18:35SPEAKER_01: No one well matters.
- 18:36SPEAKER_01: The pattern matters.
- 18:37SPEAKER_01: If a gathering system has a habit of tripping when it gets hot, that's a pattern.
- 18:41SPEAKER_01: And patterns show up in contracts.
- 18:43SPEAKER_00: So you think buyers start pricing reliability at the wellhead?
- 18:45SPEAKER_01: I think they start asking about it.
- 18:47SPEAKER_01: Pricing comes later.
- 18:48SPEAKER_01: And here's my count of the calendar for that.
- 18:50SPEAKER_00: You promised.
- 18:51SPEAKER_01: One more.
- 18:52SPEAKER_01: It's the collision zone.
- 18:53SPEAKER_01: Third quarter 2030.
- 18:55SPEAKER_01: That's four summers of peak power demand before first gas.
- 18:57SPEAKER_01: Four hurricane seasons.
- 18:59SPEAKER_01: Probably two or three full-rate cases somewhere in the Gulf South.
- 19:02SPEAKER_01: Enough time for a producer to go from read-only to a ladder that actually has
- 19:05SPEAKER_01: a history behind it.
- 19:06SPEAKER_00: Okay, that's not cynical.
- 19:08SPEAKER_00: That's a runway.
- 19:09SPEAKER_01: It's a runway.
- 19:10SPEAKER_01: That's the point.
- 19:11SPEAKER_01: Nobody gets surprised by 2030 unless they want to be.
- 19:13SPEAKER_00: Then let me do the other side of the disagreement.
- 19:15SPEAKER_00: I think the Louisiana fight tells you something bad about the ladder idea.
- 19:19SPEAKER_00: Look what happened there, according to UCS.
- 19:21SPEAKER_00: Commissioners voted not to subpoena the documents.
- 19:23SPEAKER_00: So the information about who's on the hook stayed private.
- 19:25SPEAKER_01: That's what UCS argues, yes.
- 19:27SPEAKER_00: So if the big players can keep the contract terms private,
- 19:30SPEAKER_00: why would the small players override log matter?
- 19:32SPEAKER_00: The bill gets decided in rooms the log never goes into.
- 19:35SPEAKER_01: That's a good point, and I don't have a full answer, but I'd flip it.
- 19:38SPEAKER_01: The less you can see about the contract above you,
- 19:40SPEAKER_01: the more you want your own records to be clean.
- 19:42SPEAKER_01: You can't control who's on the hook upstream.
- 19:44SPEAKER_01: You can make sure you're not the easy person to blame.
- 19:47SPEAKER_00: Defense, not offense.
- 19:48SPEAKER_01: And honestly, this is where the Louisiana story and the ladder story are the same story.
- 19:53SPEAKER_01: In Louisiana, the fight is about whether anybody outside the deal gets to see the documents.
- 19:57SPEAKER_01: On the well site, the ladder is a promise that the documents exist.
- 19:59SPEAKER_01: The rung, the limits, the override.
- 20:02SPEAKER_01: I'll take that partway.
- 20:03SPEAKER_00: I still think the real power is in the contracts,
- 20:05SPEAKER_01: and logs are housekeeping.
- 20:06SPEAKER_01: Okay, and here's where I'll ask you the personal one.
- 20:08SPEAKER_01: Would you let it touch yours?
- 20:23SPEAKER_00: Forget the ESP.
- 20:25SPEAKER_00: Say you own a small gathering system and somebody offers you a premium contract
- 20:27SPEAKER_00: to deliver into a data center power plant,
- 20:29SPEAKER_00: but it comes with uptime requirements and autonomous control on your compression.
- 20:33SPEAKER_01: Would I let the autonomy run the compressors to hit the uptime number?
- 20:36SPEAKER_00: That's the question.
- 20:37SPEAKER_01: Honestly, a partial yes.
- 20:39SPEAKER_01: I'd let it run inside tight limits during normal operation because
- 20:42SPEAKER_01: a machine responding in seconds beats a person driving out at night.
- 20:45SPEAKER_01: But I'd want a hard rule.
- 20:46SPEAKER_01: Any change outside the band wakes up a human and every override gets logged.
- 20:50SPEAKER_01: And I'd read the penalty clause twice before I signed.
- 20:53SPEAKER_00: So you'd climb the ladder for the premium?
- 20:55SPEAKER_01: For the premium with the leash, which is the same answer you gave for the ESP.
- 20:59SPEAKER_01: We're more alike than the show lets on.
- 21:00SPEAKER_00: Don't tell anybody.
- 21:02SPEAKER_01: And now the dating profile.
- 21:03SPEAKER_01: Remember the top of the show.
- 21:05SPEAKER_00: A-rated hyperscaler.
- 21:06SPEAKER_01: The whole reason that bio works is that the rating is the only thing anybody needs to know.
- 21:10SPEAKER_01: Nobody needs the name because take or pay plus an A rating means the pipe gets paid.
- 21:14SPEAKER_01: The bio is a credit statement, and that's exactly what the field doesn't have yet.
- 21:18SPEAKER_01: There's no rating for this Wells Automation is trustworthy.
- 21:21SPEAKER_01: There's no A-rated compressor station.
- 21:23SPEAKER_00: So the autonomy ladder is the field's attempt at a bio.
- 21:25SPEAKER_01: It's the field writing its own dating profile.
- 21:28SPEAKER_01: Read only for six months,
- 21:29SPEAKER_01: approved remote control since spring,
- 21:31SPEAKER_01: autonomous on stable wells with a logged override.
- 21:34SPEAKER_01: That's a profile a buyer can read.
- 21:36SPEAKER_00: That's actually good.
- 21:37SPEAKER_00: I'd swipe on that.
- 21:38SPEAKER_01: Please don't say swipe on a pipeline podcast.
- 21:40SPEAKER_00: Too late.
- 21:41SPEAKER_01: That's the collision zone.
- 21:43SPEAKER_00: Field report and build list.
- 21:44SPEAKER_00: Practical stuff.
- 21:45SPEAKER_01: Title for this one is read the contract, not the capacity number.
- 21:49SPEAKER_01: Because every headline this week led with a capacity number,
- 21:51SPEAKER_01: 2.8 BCF,
- 21:53SPEAKER_01: 7.54 GW by UCS's math,
- 21:56SPEAKER_01: 230 million, and the capacity number is the least useful thing in the release.
- 22:00SPEAKER_00: So, three questions.
- 22:02SPEAKER_01: Three questions for any AI power or pipe headline.
- 22:05SPEAKER_01: First, is it a final investment decision or a memorandum of understanding?
- 22:08SPEAKER_01: FID means a board said spend, and MOU means two companies said they'd keep talking.
- 22:12SPEAKER_00: Second.
- 22:13SPEAKER_01: Is it take or pay, or is it subject to customer commitments?
- 22:16SPEAKER_01: Take or pay means somebody's already on the hook for the capacity.
- 22:19SPEAKER_01: Subject to commitments means they're still shopping for somebody to be on the hook.
- 22:23SPEAKER_01: And third, what's the in-service date and who pays if it slips?
- 22:27SPEAKER_01: PermianLink says third quarter, 2030, subject to permits and approvals.
- 22:30SPEAKER_01: Fine.
- 22:31SPEAKER_01: Now ask who carries the cost if it's 2031.
- 22:34SPEAKER_01: Usually the release doesn't say, that's your homework.
- 22:36SPEAKER_00: Give me a worked example.
- 22:38SPEAKER_00: A headline lands Monday morning.
- 22:39SPEAKER_00: What do I do with it?
- 22:40SPEAKER_01: Say the headline reads,
- 22:41SPEAKER_01: Midstream Company and AI Developer Partner on Gas Supply for New Data Center Campus.
- 22:46SPEAKER_01: First thing, which verb?
- 22:47SPEAKER_01: Partner.
- 22:48SPEAKER_01: That's not effed.
- 22:49SPEAKER_01: Second, search the release for take or pay or firm transportation.
- 22:52SPEAKER_01: If it's not there, nobody's on the hook yet.
- 22:55SPEAKER_01: Third, search for a date.
- 22:56SPEAKER_01: If the only date is the date of the press release, that's your answer.
- 22:59SPEAKER_00: So most headlines fail at step one.
- 23:01SPEAKER_01: Most headlines fail at step one, and that's fine.
- 23:04SPEAKER_01: A partnership can become a pipe.
- 23:05SPEAKER_01: It just isn't one yet.
- 23:07SPEAKER_01: Permian Link passes all three.
- 23:09SPEAKER_01: It's FID, it's take or pay, and it has a date.
- 23:11SPEAKER_01: That's why we led with it.
- 23:13SPEAKER_00: And the date has a condition attached.
- 23:15SPEAKER_01: The date always has a condition attached.
- 23:17SPEAKER_01: Subject to the timely receipt of all required permits and approvals.
- 23:20SPEAKER_01: Read that phrase like the fine print on a rental car.
- 23:23SPEAKER_01: It's not hiding anything.
- 23:24SPEAKER_01: It's telling you exactly where the delay would come from.
- 23:27SPEAKER_00: If you're a landman, the first question matters early, right?
- 23:29SPEAKER_00: A pipe that's FID'd is going to come looking for right-of-way.
- 23:32SPEAKER_01: That's true.
- 23:33SPEAKER_01: And FID'd pipe is a pipe that's going to need easements and it's going to need them
- 23:36SPEAKER_01: on a schedule.
- 23:37SPEAKER_01: If you're in that corridor and FID headline is the start of a conversation,
- 23:40SPEAKER_01: not the end of one, and MoU, maybe not.
- 23:43SPEAKER_00: And mineral owners?
- 23:44SPEAKER_01: For mineral owners,
- 23:45SPEAKER_01: the honest thing is that a new pipe out of the Permian is about takeaway,
- 23:48SPEAKER_01: and takeaway can matter for local gas prices.
- 23:50SPEAKER_01: But we're not going to tell you what it does to your check.
- 23:53SPEAKER_01: Nobody knows yet, and it's four years out.
- 23:55SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 23:56SPEAKER_00: Build list.
- 23:57SPEAKER_00: What should somebody actually build?
- 23:59SPEAKER_01: An autonomy ladder log.
- 24:00SPEAKER_01: For every automated loop you run, an ESP, a chemical pump, a choke, you keep one record.
- 24:06SPEAKER_01: What rung is it on right now?
- 24:07SPEAKER_01: Read-only, approved remote, or autonomous?
- 24:09SPEAKER_01: Who approved that rung, and when?
- 24:11SPEAKER_01: What the operating limits are?
- 24:13SPEAKER_01: And every override event, with a timestamp and the name of the person.
- 24:16SPEAKER_00: That's a spreadsheet.
- 24:18SPEAKER_01: It can start as a spreadsheet.
- 24:19SPEAKER_01: That's the point.
- 24:20SPEAKER_01: It doesn't need a platform.
- 24:21SPEAKER_01: It needs discipline.
- 24:22SPEAKER_00: And if you want it to be more than a spreadsheet,
- 24:24SPEAKER_00: that's where a platform like the one Roam AI is selling would plug in.
- 24:27SPEAKER_00: But the log matters more than the brand.
- 24:29SPEAKER_01: Agreed.
- 24:29SPEAKER_01: Whoever's tools you use, the record should be yours.
- 24:32SPEAKER_00: And the one actionable item?
- 24:33SPEAKER_01: If you produce into gas that might end up serving data center power,
- 24:36SPEAKER_01: and in the Permian that's starting to be a lot of people,
- 24:39SPEAKER_01: start keeping uptime and override records now.
- 24:41SPEAKER_01: Not in 2029.
- 24:41SPEAKER_01: Now.
- 24:43SPEAKER_01: Because the buyer's diligence is going to ask for them,
- 24:45SPEAKER_01: and history is the one thing you can't create the week before somebody asks.
- 24:48SPEAKER_00: You can't backfill a log.
- 24:50SPEAKER_01: You can, but you shouldn't, and an auditor can usually tell.
- 24:53SPEAKER_00: What goes in the uptime record practically?
- 24:55SPEAKER_00: Because people hear uptime and think they need a data scientist.
- 24:58SPEAKER_01: You don't.
- 24:59SPEAKER_01: Start with what you already have.
- 25:01SPEAKER_01: Downtime events with a start time, an end time, and a reason code.
- 25:04SPEAKER_01: Was it a trip, a planned shut-in, a power outage, a third-party constraint?
- 25:08SPEAKER_01: Then, for anything automated,
- 25:09SPEAKER_01: what the automation did in the hour before the event,
- 25:11SPEAKER_01: did it change a set point, did somebody override it?
- 25:14SPEAKER_01: That's it.
- 25:15SPEAKER_01: A year of that is worth more than any slide deck.
- 25:17SPEAKER_00: And reason codes that a human can read.
- 25:19SPEAKER_01: Reason codes a human can read.
- 25:21SPEAKER_01: Other is not a reason code.
- 25:23SPEAKER_00: Other is a confession.
- 25:24SPEAKER_00: And one more for the field.
- 25:25SPEAKER_00: Talk to your crews about the ladder before you climb it.
- 25:28SPEAKER_00: The person most likely to catch a bad autonomous change is the pumper who knows what
- 25:30SPEAKER_00: that well sounds like on a normal day.
- 25:32SPEAKER_01: That's the best line in the segment, and you got it.
- 25:34SPEAKER_00: I'll take it.
- 25:36SPEAKER_01: And if you want help with any of this,
- 25:37SPEAKER_01: building the log,
- 25:38SPEAKER_01: reading the contract,
- 25:39SPEAKER_01: figuring out which rung your loops belong on, that's what we do.
- 25:42SPEAKER_01: You can reach us at siliconandshale at gmail.com.
- 25:45SPEAKER_01: We work with operators,
- 25:46SPEAKER_01: landmen,
- 25:46SPEAKER_01: and mineral owners on exactly this kind of problem,
- 25:49SPEAKER_01: where the oil patch meets the algorithm.
- 25:51SPEAKER_00: Siliconandshale at gmail.com.
- 25:53SPEAKER_00: Okay, messiest artifact of the week.
- 25:55SPEAKER_01: We rate these in units of unreturned easement letters.
- 25:58SPEAKER_01: One letter means mildly confusing.
- 26:00SPEAKER_01: Five letters means somebody's going to need a title opinion.
- 26:02SPEAKER_00: First nominee.
- 26:04SPEAKER_00: A-rated hyperscaler.
- 26:06SPEAKER_00: A customer described only by their credit rating.
- 26:08SPEAKER_01: Two unreturned letters.
- 26:10SPEAKER_01: It's clean, it's honest, and it tells you nothing about where the power plant is.
- 26:13SPEAKER_01: You'll need to call somebody.
- 26:15SPEAKER_00: Second nominee.
- 26:16SPEAKER_00: Purely upside.
- 26:17SPEAKER_00: Halliburton's word for a frack recovery they've decided not to count on.
- 26:20SPEAKER_01: One letter.
- 26:21SPEAKER_01: That's the most honest phrase of the week dressed up as optimism.
- 26:24SPEAKER_01: I respect it.
- 26:25SPEAKER_00: Third nominee.
- 26:26SPEAKER_00: Shadow AI from the Roam AI release.
- 26:29SPEAKER_01: Four unreturned letters.
- 26:30SPEAKER_01: Every company has it, nobody admits it.
- 26:32SPEAKER_01: And naming it in a press release is the oil field equivalent of saying there's
- 26:35SPEAKER_01: a ghost in the doghouse and then selling a ghost trap.
- 26:37SPEAKER_00: So a shadow AI wins?
- 26:39SPEAKER_01: Shadow AI wins.
- 26:40SPEAKER_01: It gets the title opinion.
- 26:42SPEAKER_00: Before we go,
- 26:43SPEAKER_00: if somebody wants to sponsor this show,
- 26:45SPEAKER_00: if you sell into the oil patch or the AI side of it and you want to reach
- 26:47SPEAKER_00: the people actually running wells,
- 26:49SPEAKER_00: pipes, and data rooms, write us at siliconandshale at gmail.com.
- 26:53SPEAKER_00: We'll keep it honest and we'll keep it short.
- 26:54SPEAKER_01: And one small ask.
- 26:56SPEAKER_01: If this helped you read past a capacity number,
- 26:58SPEAKER_01: a rating,
- 26:58SPEAKER_01: or a quick review wherever you listen helps other folks in the patch find us.
- 27:01SPEAKER_01: That's the whole ask.
- 27:03SPEAKER_01: Next week there'll be another rig count.
- 27:05SPEAKER_01: That's one down about 199 to go before that pipe flows.
- 27:08SPEAKER_00: Somebody has to count them.
- 27:09SPEAKER_01: And to the A-rated hyperscaler, we still don't know your name.
- 27:12SPEAKER_01: Packer already wrote it on the sticky note anyway.