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What to Expect From the Stock Market in 2024 · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Donald J.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Trump's leadership.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I'm Christy nom the United States Secretary of Homeland Security.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are at the
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred thousand illegal
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally, your
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: next you will be fined nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: and deported.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: You will never return.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: But if you register using our CBP home app and
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Do what's right. Leave now.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families will be protected.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: I want to start out with I know you're a
• 1:03
  Speaker 4: charts guy, So based on the charts that you're reading now,
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: you look at things. How do you see twenty twenty
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  Speaker 4: four playing out? You know a lot of people said,
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  Speaker 4: you know, obviously we had a great year in twenty
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  Speaker 4: twenty three. Some people that's nervous the political cycle. It
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  Speaker 4: would say that it would be a good year based
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  Speaker 4: off of past history, based on an election year. So
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  Speaker 4: where do you see this market right now? As far
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  Speaker 4: as charts is concerned, I.
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  Speaker 5: Like I like how you throw out the seasonality there,
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  Speaker 5: no big deal, no big deal, it's a.
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  Speaker 6: Little four year cycle. Throw a shot out there. I
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  Speaker 6: like it. I like it.
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  Speaker 5: No, listen, it's less about the charts and more about reality.
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  Speaker 6: Right.
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  Speaker 5: A lot of people are like, oh, the market should
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  Speaker 5: do this, or oh the market could do this.
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  Speaker 6: What is it actually doing? Right?
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  Speaker 5: That's what I'm mostly interested in. What is the what
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  Speaker 5: is actually happening? And it just so happens that the
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  Speaker 5: best way to visualize what's actually taking place in the market,
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  Speaker 5: it isn't a chart, right, you could literally see it.
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: And like, I'm not like the smartest guy, like you
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: can tell me something a million times, you got to
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  Speaker 5: show me, like, let me see.
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  Speaker 6: Can I just see? So the charts are.
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  Speaker 5: Very helpful to be able to see what the market
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  Speaker 5: is actually doing.
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  Speaker 6: Is the world falling apart? I don't know.
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  Speaker 5: Let's see what the S and P five hundred is doing. Oh,
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  Speaker 5: I see it at all time highs.
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  Speaker 6: So I don't know.
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  Speaker 5: Maybe the world is not actually falling apart. Maybe things
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  Speaker 5: are pretty good. Oh maybe it's just the United States
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  Speaker 5: that's doing so well. Why don't we look and see
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  Speaker 5: what's going on in other countries. Oh shit, Brazil's making
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  Speaker 5: new all time highs. Yeah, Chile and Peru and k
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  Speaker 5: K thirty three year highs, Germany new all time highs.
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  Speaker 5: All Denmark does is go straight up with their healthcare.
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  Speaker 5: It's fantastic. France, new all time highs. A ton of
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  Speaker 5: industrials there. You look at Asia, things like Jakarta, right,
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  Speaker 5: like the only thing not working is China, right, which
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  Speaker 5: is a very rare exception of me. You go down
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  Speaker 5: to Australia, things are good.
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  Speaker 6: So just more new.
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  Speaker 5: All the time highs across the board. You see an expansion
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  Speaker 5: of stocks making new highs. Right, we had over fifty
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  Speaker 5: percent of the S and P five hundred. It was
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  Speaker 5: hitting new three month highs the other day. Like, those
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  Speaker 5: are the types of things that happen early in cycles.
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  Speaker 5: So in terms of like what are the charts telling me?
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  Speaker 6: Like for the year.
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  Speaker 5: Well, I don't know what's going to happen a year
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  Speaker 5: from now, but we're not in a market environment where
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  Speaker 5: things are getting worse. For the last eighteen months, we've
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  Speaker 5: been in a market environment where things keep getting better.
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  Speaker 5: So you're going to see things stop getting better before
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  Speaker 5: they start to get worse, right, Like, we're not We're
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  Speaker 5: not getting you know what I'm saying, Like things aren't
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  Speaker 5: getting worse, they just keep getting better. So like when
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  Speaker 5: that stops, then we'll, you know, we'll have a different conversation.
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  Speaker 5: So that's that's how I see it, you know. So
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  Speaker 5: what does that mean? Oh, it's a bull market, it's
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  Speaker 5: a bear market? Like why should we care what kind
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  Speaker 5: of market environment we're in? Because that's the first thing
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  Speaker 5: that we want to do as investors, First identify what
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  Speaker 5: type of market environment we're in and then decide the
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  Speaker 5: best tools and strategies for that environment. Right, So, if
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  Speaker 5: we're in a low voluetmeiity environment, why on earth where
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  Speaker 5: do you incorporate strategies that are good for high volatility environments?
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  Speaker 6: That would be stupid, Right, that.
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  Speaker 5: Would be dumb. That just doesn't make mathematical sense. So
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  Speaker 5: we're in a low volatility environment. Let's incorporate strategies that
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  Speaker 5: are good for low of all environments. Okay, are the
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  Speaker 5: majority of stocks going up or the majority of stocks
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  Speaker 5: going down? I don't know if you've looked, but the
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  Speaker 5: majority of stocks have.
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  Speaker 6: Been going up. So we want to take time.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, we want to spend our time looking for stocks
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  Speaker 5: to buy versus allocating more time looking for stocks to sell.
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  Speaker 5: You know, there are more op trends than there are
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  Speaker 5: range bound markets, so we don't necessarily want to incorporate
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  Speaker 5: too many range bound market strategies. We want to incorporate
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  Speaker 5: more trend following strategies.
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  Speaker 6: Right.
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  Speaker 5: So that's that's how we look at the current state
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  Speaker 5: of the market, how we want to approach it.
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  Speaker 6: I think it's like that.
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  Speaker 7: When we look at when we look at twenty twenty four,
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  Speaker 7: we've already heard that there was going to be rate cuts,
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  Speaker 7: and so we're big on technology. We talk about technology
• 4:55
  Speaker 7: companies all the time. We see companies going up.
• 5:00
  Speaker 6: Earners, what's up?
• 5:01
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• 5:03
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• 6:50
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from El Salvador
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a t sis man of Venezuelan charged
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: with filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: just some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: President Donald J.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: United States Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: and over one hundred thousand illegal aliens.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: Have been arrested.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: If you are here illegally, your next you will be
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: fined nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Deported you will never return.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: But if you register using our CBP home app and
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Do what's right. Leave now.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Under President Trump America's laws, border and families will be protected.
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: Been up.
• 7:52
  Speaker 7: With the rates getting lower, obviously, that would create an
• 7:55
  Speaker 7: environment for tech companies to continue to appreciate.
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  Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on that.
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  Speaker 7: Everybody keeps talking about this pull back, this pullback, this
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  Speaker 7: recessionary environment in the second half of the year. They
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  Speaker 7: said that in twenty twenty three, we didn't see it.
• 8:07
  Speaker 7: We spoke to you about it, and the charge didn't
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  Speaker 7: indicate that. What are your thoughts around the tech sector
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  Speaker 7: with interest rates being reduced over the next six months.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, stocks and bonds are moving together, that's
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  Speaker 5: the big thing. And if you look at technology, technology
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  Speaker 5: represents almost thirty percent basically today is essentially pennies from
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  Speaker 5: thirty percent of the entire and P five hundred.
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  Speaker 6: This is technology.
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  Speaker 5: So if we know that stocks and bonds are trading together, right,
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  Speaker 5: then your thesis that lower rates should be good for
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  Speaker 5: technology stocks, I would agree with all of that, right,
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  Speaker 5: that would make perfect sense. You know, what I think
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  Speaker 5: actually is getting you know, taking that one step further.
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  Speaker 5: What I think part of the driver of that trend
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: that you're talking about is the fact that a lot
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: of investors still think that the treasury bond market is
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: the safe haven when stocks sell off, bonds rally, that
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  Speaker 5: inverse correlation that we had in place for a long
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: long time the majority of my career, certainly, but we're
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: not in that type of environment. We're in an environment
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  Speaker 5: that's more inflationary, where stocks and bonds are trading together
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: something like maybe the nineteen seventies. So we're just in
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  Speaker 5: a different kind of environment where stocks and bonds need
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: to be treated differently than many than than most of
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: us have been accustomed to over the last twenty years.
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: So that's just something to keep in mind. And I
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  Speaker 5: think it's taking investors a long time to come to
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  Speaker 5: terms with that, And I think that that is further
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  Speaker 5: unwind of just how critical I think, you know, rates
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  Speaker 5: staying down could be good for the stock market and
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  Speaker 5: technology in particular, as thirty percent of the SMB.
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  Speaker 7: What stocks or sectors surprise you the most in twenty
• 9:45
  Speaker 7: twenty three and how much they went up.
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: Well, I mean I didn't see a fifty spot on
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: the queues, I'll tell you that much, you know, I mean,
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: you know, we were bullish. We were buying stocks. We
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: were buying them, you know because if you recall kind
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: of like rewind for just a second, so back in
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: the late twenty like in the late twenties, in late
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: twenty two, the short interest in these Tex stocks was
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: off the charts, right, Yeah, we had a bear market.
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  Speaker 5: The majority of stocks bottomed out in June of twenty
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  Speaker 5: twenty two, right, that's when most stocks stopped going down,
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: and then from there things got better. But some of
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: the tech stocks and ques continued to fall, even though
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: most things were already on their way up in the
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: back half of twenty two. The bears, the short sellers,
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: instead of covering their shorts after these massive declines, like
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: eighty ninety percent decline in some of these growth stocks, right,
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: you guys know, rather than covering their shorts, some did.
• 10:45
  Speaker 6: We were short some stocks.
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: We covered our shorts, right, some people did, but in aggregate,
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: which is what counts. Not only did they not cover
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: their shorts, they added to their shorts, so that by
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: the end of twenty two they were the most short
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: those gross stocks the entire cycle, after most stocks had
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: already bottomed. So that's that unwind. And then Wall Street
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: comes in with their first negative expectations for the S
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: and P five hundred on a consensus basis negative year,
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: first time all century. At the same time that all
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: these institutions were super short. You got that nasty squeeze.
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: So what surprised me. I didn't see as bullish as
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: we were. I didn't see a fifty spot on the cues.
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: But what I will say that I'm not surprised, but
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: I think is going unnoticed, is that the best performer
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: in the second half of last year was financials. Nobody's
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: talking about that. Remember banking crisis. Yeah, three banks no
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: one's ever heard of disappeared, So what more of them
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: should have gotten?
• 11:47
  Speaker 6: There's too many as it is.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from l Salvador
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Donald J.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: United States Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: and over one hundred thousand illegal aliens.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: Have been arrested.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: If you are here illegally, your next you will be
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: fined nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: You will never return.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: But if you register using our CBP home app and
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: Do what's right, leave now.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families will be protected.
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,