Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Why 1 Bitcoin Will Be Enough to Retire | EP 1064

Transcript

Why 1 Bitcoin Will Be Enough to Retire | EP 1064 · Simply Bitcoin

0:02
It's. All going to zero against
0:04
Bitcoin. It's going out forever.
0:15
You're against Bitcoin. You're against freedom.
0:24
Out of the US dollar. Simple as that.
0:26
So if you want to protect yourself from that, you need to
0:29
own hard assets. The main way to protect yourself
0:33
is to own assets that go up in price by as much as the
0:39
inflation that happens to the underlying base currency.
0:42
I had people in 2020 telling me that their Morgan Stanley
0:45
advisors have done a great job that year because their
0:48
portfolios were up 30%. And I said congratulations
0:52
because they printed 40% of all the US dollars in existence.
0:54
So you're actually down. You're actually -10% And they
0:58
couldn't believe what I was saying.
0:59
But that's the reality of it. And the only way to do that, the
1:01
stock market isn't doing that. Well, you know, the stock
1:04
market's not doing that when the ultra wealthy are doing private
1:07
equity. The stock market is exit
1:10
liquidity for, for for the ultra wealthy.
1:13
So Bitcoin is the only thing that will protect against that
1:17
because of its supply cap. And that's the one thing that
1:20
you should have some exposure to.
1:22
I'm not here to tell you what your exposure should be, but you
1:25
need to understand this, You need to learn this.
1:27
And you've got a very, very short period of time to do this
1:29
while we're range bound for the next few months.
1:32
So when you talk about and, and again, kind of circling it back
1:36
to just the general, your general motto, your catch phrase
1:40
that, you know, it's basically gone viral at this point, the
1:44
window of opportunity is closing.
1:47
So what do you mean by that exactly?
1:50
And what's at stake if someone misses that window?
1:54
Look, let's say Bitcoin goes to $100,000.
1:57
Let's not, let's not even imagine the three, four,
1:59
$500,000 price point. Just say $100,000.
2:02
You know how many people have just a random $100,000 sitting
2:06
around to buy, to buy something that they don't even understand?
2:10
It ain't that many people, right?
2:12
They've got property that majority of those people are
2:15
going to be in the 500,000 to $30 million net worth range.
2:18
Those people are primarily in real estate.
2:21
So now to generate $100,000, yeah, somebody with a $30
2:25
million portfolio might be able to do that.
2:28
But somebody with a $5,000,000 portfolio probably needs to sell
2:31
a house in order to generate that liquidity.
2:34
It's not going to take you three to six months to sell that damn
2:36
thing in order to maintain generate that liquidity.
2:39
And that's for an asset that you're not you just discovered,
2:42
right? No one's going to go through the
2:43
bull lake of doing that. So that's what I'm saying.
2:46
Now is the time, you've got a limited amount of time.
2:50
We've priced out, we've priced already priced out the poor,
2:54
we've already priced out the middle class worldwide.
2:56
We're now pricing out the upper middle class worldwide.
2:59
And soon we're going to price out the lower multimillionaire
3:02
worldwide. Because a multimillionaire who's
3:05
got a four or $5,000,000 net worth does not have two or
3:08
$300,000 lying around in cash, right?
3:11
Most people don't understand that because they don't, they've
3:13
never really touched any wealth. They don't, they don't know that
3:16
somebody who's can be worth 4 or $5,000,000 and not have a
3:20
hundred, a hundred, 150, two, $100,000 in the bank because
3:23
it's in assets. Those are the people that need
3:26
to get their head straight right now because you are walking into
3:28
a mess here. You're going to walk into an
3:30
environment where your property portfolio is not going to keep
3:33
up with the amount of money that's being printed.
3:36
Your stock portfolio is not going to keep up with the amount
3:38
of money that's being printed if gold is definitely not going to
3:41
keep up with the amount of money that's being printed because the
3:44
supply cap is the most important thing.
3:47
And it's now is the time to understand Bitcoin.
3:50
Whether you execute at this very day or not, that's not what I'm
3:53
here to do. What I'm here to tell you is
3:55
Start learning. Get serious.
3:58
The fact that, Larry, you got to be one egotistical SOB to say
4:03
that Larry Fink and BlackRock are in this asset on TV talking
4:07
about it, but I don't want to learn about it.
4:09
If that's your mindset, you deserve to be poor.
4:13
Yeah, we're going to simply Bitcoin live, your number one
4:15
source for the peaceful Bitcoin revolution, breaking news,
4:17
cultural medic warfare. We will be your guide through
4:20
the separation of money and state, starting the cold opening
4:23
with British huddle from simply Bitcoin to IRL yesterday,
4:27
British Huddle's famous mantra of get to at least one Bitcoin.
4:31
We're going to talk about that. We're going to make the case for
4:34
you guys today on today's episode that I think all you
4:38
need is really one Bitcoin. I think you need you can retire
4:42
off one Bitcoin, especially where we think this thing is
4:46
going, where this train is going.
4:48
And of course that episode was was enlightening with Huddle.
4:51
So I highly recommend you guys watching the entire thing.
4:54
We got into the topics like the ETF and the significance of
4:58
BlackRock entering the game. Also all these traditional
5:02
legacy financial institutions also also stepping in.
5:06
And again, I think the part that I want to emphasize is that
5:10
there's a, the window of being able to accumulate one Bitcoin
5:15
is slowly closing. Adam Back has said this as well.
5:18
I think we're peeking at basically the total amount of
5:22
people that will ever own one Bitcoin just because of the
5:25
like, look at where the price is right now.
5:27
It's at $60,638. That's, I think a little bit
5:31
lower than the average salary of of an American on a on a yearly
5:35
basis and definitely around definitely significantly more
5:40
than the average salary of most countries around the world.
5:44
So like that window of becoming a whole coiner is I definitely
5:49
think is going to be closed this upcoming cycle.
5:52
Now, does that mean that you've missed the Bitcoin train?
5:55
No. Does that mean that you still
5:57
can't benefit from sound money? Absolutely not.
6:00
But what I will emphasize and what Opti and I have been
6:04
screaming from the rooftops, you know, the many years that simply
6:07
Bitcoin has been on air, is try to accumulate as much Bitcoin as
6:11
you can. I mean, we've been saying this
6:13
since like, I think $3500 Bitcoin, $6000 Bitcoin, $10,000
6:17
Bitcoin. So yes, like it's obviously
6:20
getting progressively more expensive.
6:21
The train is about to leave the station to become a whole
6:24
coiner. And I think on today's show, I'm
6:27
going to try to make the case that I think with one Bitcoin, I
6:30
think for most people, it's going to be enough for you to
6:34
have a very, very comfortable retirement.
6:37
I'm assuming you retire at 50 or 60 years old.
6:40
I think with one Bitcoin, it's going to be more than enough.
6:43
So that's what we're going to cover on today's episode.
6:46
Also, we have a very special guest.
6:48
We have Kent, the CEO of SaaS mining.
6:51
SaaS mining is Bitcoin mining as a service.
6:55
Always enjoy having Kent on the show.
6:57
We're going to talk about SaaS mining and also some mining
7:00
topics as well. Kent, thank you so much for
7:03
joining us today. Yeah, always glad to be on here
7:06
with you, Nico. Happy to see you guys get
7:08
reinstated back on YouTube as well.
7:10
Congrats. Appreciate it.
7:12
And of course my legendary Co host who is not optimistic 3
7:17
days in a row where Opti is not optimistic.
7:20
And if it's five days in a row, we're going to have to replace
7:23
Opti. Just kidding.
7:25
We can't replace Opti. Opti is unreplaceable but dude,
7:28
what's going on? There's no smiles on you today.
7:32
Well, I'm, I'm really I, I my, my stream over here is acting up
7:37
and lagging. So I'm not sure if I'm lagging
7:39
on your end, but you guys are a little glitchy for me right now.
7:42
So if I'm coming through I I can deal with it.
7:44
But yeah, I'm trying to figure it out on the back end.
7:47
But man, hey. You're coming in.
7:49
You're coming in perfect on the streams too, so OK.
7:53
You're coming in good, so OK. Cool, Well, you guys are lagging
7:56
for me right now, so I don't know what's going on on
7:58
restreaming so, but I, I'm a professional.
8:00
I can deal with this Nico. So yeah, everything's good, man.
8:02
Life's wonderful. I I feel great.
8:05
You know, I got this lit hat from Amazon.
8:07
I'm super hyped on it. So you know, everything's great,
8:10
dude. I, I, I, I love my life.
8:12
I, you know, how can I complain? I love my life.
8:15
I love living. It's so good.
8:17
Yeah, and living on a Bitcoin standard, man, it's like the
8:19
cherry on top. Anyways, we're also going to
8:21
talk about the. It is a life hat.
8:23
It's like a cheat code. Anyways, we're also going to
8:26
talk about the the incarceration of a Binance executive happening
8:32
in Nigeria. Nigeria, the Nigerian government
8:35
is blaming Bitcoin for the devaluation of their currency.
8:38
I find that absolutely hilarious.
8:40
I think we're going to start to see that happen in many other
8:45
countries. Also, Nigeria is famous for
8:47
launching their central bank digital currency, the E Naira,
8:51
which was an absolute failure. And the reason for that is
8:54
simple, CBDC's don't solve the reasons as to why people are
8:58
seeking alternatives specifically in countries that
9:00
are currently enduring double digit inflation.
9:03
Why don't people like CBDC's? Well, they don't solve inflation
9:07
#1 and #2 they don't solve the censorship problem, right?
9:11
So specifically, if you live in a totalitarian regime and
9:14
perhaps they don't like your political thoughts or your
9:16
political ideas or political speech, CVC's aren't exactly the
9:21
currency of your choice, right? So anyways, we're gonna talk
9:24
about that as well. And Optes got some things
9:27
cooking during the culture segment.
9:29
So Opti not only are gonna talk about SaaS mining, I know you
9:32
guys love it when we talk about SaaS mining.
9:33
SaaS mining is Bitcoin only the service, but also we have some
9:37
mining topics as well that we're going to talk about.
9:40
We're going to talk to Kent about as well.
9:42
Yeah, Yeah. So last time Kent was on, I
9:45
think it was about a month ago, something like that.
9:47
We were telling you guys that considering Kent becoming kind
9:51
of like a reoccurring guest and he's coming back all the time.
9:54
We're going to do kind of like Q&A and do like a state of
9:57
mining quorum, if that's the right word, I don't know where.
10:01
So we're going to cover the state of mining right now in the
10:04
current moment. There's been a lot of things
10:06
that happened since the last time he's been on.
10:08
There's been, you know, some some interest from nation states
10:11
in Bitcoin mining. We're going to touch on the bid
10:13
axe as well. And then we'll get some general
10:16
takes of how healthy the network is.
10:18
You know, the fees have been kind of spiking up and down.
10:21
They've been pretty mellow for the last couple of weeks.
10:23
So we're going to give maybe and I'm actually I'm going to I'm
10:26
going to put Kent on the spot and get some some more
10:29
predictions on where the network is going by the end of the year.
10:32
But I think you guys are going to like this one.
10:34
Well, I'm looking forward to today's show, but before we get
10:36
started, I do want to give a very special shout out to simply
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At the time of recording the Bitcoin price is $60,560.
13:21
That's per dollar 1651 block height 858,980 blocks to having
13:29
191,020 having estimate March 23rd, 2028 Total Lightning
13:35
Network capacity 4890 BTC capacity value 296,000,000
13:42
realized monetary inflation 1.41% market cap 1.2 trillion
13:48
Bitcoin versus gold market cap 6.89%.
13:52
In the grand scheme of things, things are just getting started.
13:56
Anyways, I can't wait for the episode where like bitcoins
14:01
getting close to the market cap of gold and it's at like 98.99
14:05
or like 99.99 and then it goes above like that's going to be
14:09
surreal. By the way, if and when I'm
14:13
coming from the camp of when Bitcoin reaches a market cap of
14:16
gold, that would put the price of one Bitcoin at roughly
14:19
$750,000 per coin. And now the question that I have
14:24
for you guys is do you think that gold is superior to Bitcoin
14:27
or you think Bitcoin is superior to gold?
14:29
Anyways, I do want to start off this number segment reading some
14:33
passages from the Sovereign Individual, because you have to
14:36
read this book. I highly recommend it.
14:38
I can't talk about it enough because I think it really gives
14:41
you a pretty good idea of where we are in terms of human history
14:45
and how much information technology is.
14:48
Better said, the Internet is fundamentally going to change
14:51
how a human society organizes itself.
14:54
So the passage goes. Lacking their accustomed scope
14:57
to tax and inflate, governments, even in traditionally civil
15:01
countries, will turn nasty. Businesses that offer services
15:05
that facilitate the realization of autonomy by individuals will
15:08
be subject to infiltration, sabotage and disruption.
15:12
Arbitrary forfeiture of property, already commonplace in
15:14
the United States, where it occurs 5000 times a week, will
15:17
become even more pervasive. Governments will violate human
15:21
rights, censor the free flow of information, sabotage useful
15:25
technologies and worse. I mean, you can apply this to a
15:29
lot of the attacks on the industry, specifically in the
15:31
United States, the proposed 30% Bitcoin mining tax, the
15:36
so-called Operation Choke .2 point O, the denial of Caitlin
15:40
Long's federal banking charter, the banning of simply Bitcoin.
15:44
This is to name a few things, right?
15:46
Anyways, so I do want to cover what's happening in Nigeria.
15:49
So Nigeria of course, was something that it's a country
15:53
that we've been talking about for quite a while now.
15:55
Nigeria is one of the first countries to launch a CBDC,
15:58
specifically the E naira. It was a total failure.
16:01
The reason that I believe it was a total failure is it doesn't
16:04
solve few problems, inflation and censorship, right?
16:08
So of course, the Nigerian government got upset, not
16:12
necessarily because of their responsible fiscal policy,
16:16
because it's literally governments debasing currency
16:19
that is the sole cause of inflation.
16:22
It's not the supply chains, it's not pandemics, it is literally
16:26
printing money. But it's a lot easier to blame
16:29
the boogeyman. And I think that's exactly what
16:31
happened here. So Nigeria detains American
16:34
Binance executive over dispute with the crypto company goes on
16:38
to say in Nigeria, an American man is caught up in a dispute
16:42
between the government and the cryptocurrency exchange finance.
16:45
Some lawmakers say that Nigeria is effectively holding him
16:50
hostage. Does that sound familiar from
16:52
the from the book passage that I just read you guys?
16:55
We turn now to Nigeria. When an American man is caught
16:58
up in a dispute between the government and cryptocurrency
17:00
exchange finance. Nigeria accuses finance of 10.
17:05
Excuse me? Nigeria accuses Binance of
17:08
tanking its currency. And now some US lawmakers say
17:12
that Nigeria's effectively holding hostage an American who
17:16
is the company's head of financial crime compliance.
17:20
Right? That is nuts.
17:22
Binance did not tank the Nigerian currency.
17:26
Binance just offered facilitated right to let me use the words
17:31
from the piece right, businesses that offer services that
17:35
facilitate the realization of autonomy by individuals.
17:38
Binance, all it did is it facilitate it allowed people to
17:44
get off the Nigerian currency and get onto an alternative non
17:48
state currency. But it's crazy how the
17:51
government is reacting this way. By the way, this still seems to
17:55
be the case. This is one of the latest
17:57
articles in regards to this matter.
18:00
It goes on to say the wife of Tigran Gambarian, the American
18:06
finance employee detained in Nigeria, released a new video
18:09
statement on Monday pleading for his immediate release from
18:12
prison. It has been six months since I
18:15
saw, I last saw my husband, since our children, since our
18:18
children last held their father's hand.
18:21
His health is deteriorating to the point where he can no longer
18:24
walk between bouts of malaria. That's that I, I kind of know
18:31
how to pneumonia. Pneumonia.
18:33
Thank you Opti. And the unimaginable mental toll
18:36
of his detention. He is now reaching the point of
18:39
no return. A former IRS agent and Binance,
18:42
current head of financial crime compliance, was detained in
18:46
Abuja in February, shortly after voluntarily travelling to
18:50
Nigeria's capital city at the government's invitation.
18:52
Could you imagine that? That's nuts.
18:56
That's so like it was like, it's what the book said.
18:59
It's hostage taking. It's like you like we're
19:03
literally going to hold one of your guys hostage until Binance
19:07
pulls out of Nigeria because you guys are responsible for the
19:11
Nigerian currency tanking and not succeeding.
19:14
No, all it is is that the Nigerian people are no longer
19:18
being held and they're no longer being coerced into using the
19:23
Nigerian currency. That yes, it puts pressure on
19:27
the Nigerian government because they can no longer print money
19:31
in order to pay for things. Their only mechanism of being
19:35
able to raise revenue is via direct taxation.
19:38
That is a check on government spending.
19:41
But instead of them seeing, you know, the light of Satoshi and
19:44
realizing, OK, maybe the gigs up, it's what the book said,
19:48
they literally have resorted to hostage taking.
19:51
This is insane. Like this is crazy.
19:54
It doesn't surprise me. And I'll tell you what, guys, I
19:57
think we're going to see more of this as a separation of money
20:00
and state accelerates. So anyways, I wanted to cover
20:03
that topic because again, you guys know that I'm a sovereign
20:06
individual book Maxie and I just start to see examples of that
20:11
playing out in real time. And it's just it's just crazy to
20:14
see this. Anyways, how do you protect?
20:16
Yourself as an individual from this very simple take self
20:20
custody of your Bitcoin. Don't trust it with the third
20:23
party. Trust yourself, not your keys,
20:26
not your cheese. That's my take anyways.
20:28
I'm going to pass it on to Kent. Kent, what's your take on this
20:31
man? This.
20:32
Is. Crazy, but it's not surprising
20:34
at all. No, no, and I, I have to say,
20:37
you know, the, the sovereign individuals, one of my favorite
20:39
books, like very prophetic that in the fourth turning, I think
20:42
are the the prophecy books for Bitcoiners.
20:44
They were written well before Bitcoin was in existence, right?
20:47
And so they've got some some extra firepower weight behind
20:50
them. But seeing what's going on
20:51
there, I mean, it's just embarrassing as as an American,
20:55
I'm embarrassed for the United States to allow this to happen.
20:58
So what what was touched on just below, I don't know if you saw
21:02
that in the pieces he had up there was that he is a former
21:05
IRS agent, meaning that he was a former employee of the US
21:08
government. And I listened this morning,
21:11
Nathaniel Whitmore on the breakdown and talked about this
21:15
guy in his background and what he did for the US government as
21:18
an IRS agent. And he wasn't like any low level
21:21
person like this guy was like top of the game, right?
21:24
And so to see the State Department just literally turn
21:26
their back on this guy who's clearly being held as a hostage,
21:30
right? And I heard it's something like
21:32
$160 million that they want like this is a extortion that's going
21:36
on by the Nigerian government to let go of this guy and his
21:40
health is suffering. And, you know, in comparison,
21:42
and Nathaniel talked about this as well in this in this short
21:45
little podcast was in comparison, there was a
21:49
basketball player, a female basketball player in Russia that
21:52
had gotten, you know, put into jail for I think having hash or
21:56
something like that. And and we made it a State
21:58
Department issue and got her out of there.
22:00
But here is this person, ex US employee, no slouch of an
22:05
employee either, and he is being, you know, completely
22:09
shunted and chipped to the side. I mean travesty, embarrassing
22:13
and stupid too. 100% and and could it be because of the
22:18
industry that he's working in? Could it be that maybe that
22:22
plays a role? I don't know.
22:23
No way to know for sure then I'm speculating.
22:26
But anyways, Opti, what's your take on this, man?
22:29
I mean, it's pretty crazy that this is where we're at in the
22:32
movie. Well, I mean, we've been joking
22:35
for the last couple of weeks and that what was the meme like?
22:40
Pretty soon bitcoins going to be called a danger to democracy.
22:43
And it seems and it seems like we are going down that trend
22:47
with this exact news story. But I think the most glaring
22:50
part about this was that like entrapment piece that they were
22:53
that you just kind of covered. It really reminds me of what
22:56
happened to the Telegram CEO. You know, there's rumors that
22:59
Macron invited him to dinner and then once he gets off the plane,
23:02
he gets arrested. And now, you know, it's like he
23:04
can't leave France ever. So it is where we are in the
23:08
story. And I think anyone that is semi
23:10
familiar with everything going on on Twitter and the state of
23:13
the world and the attacks on free speech, it's becoming very
23:16
obvious that the powers that be, again, you can name them
23:19
whatever you want, whatever, whatever nomenclature you want.
23:21
But the powers that be are scrambling for control of
23:24
information. And it's a fundamental question
23:26
we ask here on the show every single day.
23:28
It's like, what makes you think they will let you or rather want
23:32
you to allow or transact freely if you can't speak freely?
23:35
This is a First Amendment issue. As a bitcoiner, obviously it's
23:38
unfortunate to see this and, and what Kent said is absolutely
23:41
incredible, like, you know, work within the system and they're
23:45
just sacrificing him right now to the Nigerian.
23:48
Government. And dude, we don't need to do
23:51
that every single time anyways. I, I think the funniest part
23:54
about this though, is the Nigerian government basically
23:58
being like, it's finance's fault that our, that we're debasing
24:01
our currency. Like who in their right mind
24:04
sees that? And it's like, Yup, it's this is
24:06
we're going to blame crypto for this or Bitcoin for this.
24:09
And it just really goes to show that that is coming down the
24:13
pipeline, most likely in America, in the Bitcoin industry
24:17
as well, unless we actively start to not only educate
24:21
people, but educate people in power to understand what exactly
24:24
is going on. And and hopefully in good faith,
24:27
they listen to us and be like, look, you guys are the problem.
24:29
You guys are the one that are debasing the currency.
24:32
You guys are the one that are stuck in the corner and have to
24:34
print as much money as possible and making everyone else poorer.
24:37
Like it's not us. We are basically, or rather
24:39
Satoshi was just a reaction to the fact that this money printer
24:43
is going to continue to go Burr. They have no choice but to print
24:45
more money. And we're just trying to protect
24:47
ourselves. Like we can't lean on the people
24:51
in power to protect us. So as individuals, we have taken
24:54
back that right, and we're protecting ourselves.
24:57
And that's what this is. This whole thing's about a. 100%
25:00
and, and like, I think it, it, it like, it makes a very
25:02
difficult, I think very difficult conversations are
25:05
going to, are, are, are going to be had in the future
25:07
specifically just because, you know, as it relates to U.S.
25:11
government, right? Specifically, in 2023, the US
25:13
government spent $1.7 trillion more than it collected in tax
25:18
revenue. How are they able to do that?
25:20
They printed the difference, right?
25:23
That didn't come for free. That was at the expense of
25:26
anyone who was holding the dollar.
25:29
They have that privilege because #1 they're the world's reserve
25:33
currency. And #2 because people still
25:35
believe in Fiat currency. Once that that belief goes away
25:41
and it's already gone away in the developing world, they have
25:44
no faith, right? Like, we have the financial
25:46
privilege of living in a country that has a stable, relatively
25:50
stable Fiat currency. And the government still can't
25:53
help themselves. This is what Bitcoin fixes.
25:57
And I think the conversations that are going to be very
25:59
difficult. And I think that the reason that
26:01
I believe that this transition is going to be somewhat bumpy is
26:04
because like, governments have always been able to spend more
26:10
than they collect. And Bitcoin for the first time
26:13
is it kind of provides a check on that because if you spend too
26:17
much, what you're doing is that you're incentivizing people to
26:20
seek alternatives. And it's so fascinating, the
26:24
case of Nigeria. And I think it's foreshadowing
26:26
to the rest of the world instead of them seeing saying like, oh,
26:30
like we have competition and we can't shut down that
26:34
competition. Maybe we need some, some, some
26:39
fiscal discipline. No, no, no, no, no.
26:41
They would literally just they start hostage taking, which is
26:45
exactly what, you know, the book the sovereign individual
26:47
predicted, right? So, yeah, it's it's a kind of
26:50
very interesting, interesting moment in human history.
26:53
But I think the happy ending here, and again, I recommend the
26:56
book is that eventually over time, what I think is going to
26:59
happen is you're going to start to see nation states compete for
27:04
the business of, of citizens and, and, and businesses too.
27:09
Like you see El Salvador, right, El Salvador saying like, look,
27:11
come here, if you're a Bitcoiner, you know, you can get
27:14
a citizenship. I think you're going to start to
27:16
see more and more of that because I think as the the book,
27:21
the sovereign individual said, right, Governments see their
27:23
citizens as tax cattle. But now the Internet has given
27:26
them wings, right? And now people are going to
27:29
choose they're going to not only vote with their wallet, but
27:31
they're going to go vote with their feet.
27:33
And if you take Bitcoin into self custody, it's pretty easy
27:37
to take your wealth with you, right?
27:39
So it changes the conversation, it changes the balance of power,
27:42
and it's very, very interesting the times we're living in, but.
27:46
Hey, wait, hey, wait, Nico. Hey, wait, Nico.
27:47
Are we going to talk about the the Buchelli Times?
27:50
Cover. I have that saved.
27:52
I have that saved up for tomorrow, but I find it
27:54
hilarious. Epic picture.
27:57
You know his. We're going to talk about it
27:59
tomorrow. It's kind of fitting and we'll
28:00
talk about tomorrow, but yeah, you know, media, media doing
28:03
what media does and propagandize.
28:04
It's love to see it. And it's it's pretty funny.
28:07
Anyways, guys, let's move on to news.
28:09
We have lots to talk about. Let's check it out.
28:11
Here we go, the Daily News. I want to give a shout out to
28:18
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Check out the Passport link link in the show notes below to learn
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more. All right guys, one of the one
29:14
of the first steps Opti, do you have it with you?
29:16
One of the first steps that you can do in becoming a sovereign
29:20
individual is taking self custody of your Bitcoin.
29:24
Opti right now is modelling the beautiful passport by foundation
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devices open source Bitcoin hardware wallet.
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It's completely air gapped. Even if you plug it into USBC,
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it doesn't have any data. It's only for power and you can
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pair it up with the envoy app and make spending cold storage
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air gapped Bitcoin incredibly easy.
29:46
And guys, remember, not your keys, not your cheese.
29:49
You could take cold storage in other ways, but for vast
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majority of people, they don't have the technical know how to
29:54
do that. So we recommend a hardware
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wallet and of course we recommend our partner passport
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by foundation devices. Scan the QR code or check the
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simply, you will get a discount, take ownership of your wealth
30:10
anyways. So let's talk about this.
30:12
I believe, I truly believe that you'll only need one Bitcoin to
30:17
retire. So talking about 10/15/20 years
30:22
into the future, I think, you know, it's destined to go up
30:25
forever, Laura. And the reason for that is I
30:27
think that governments are not going to be able to help
30:29
themselves but to print more money.
30:31
I think we discussed all the reasons as to why and I think I
30:36
agree with, I agree with British Huddle.
30:38
We were having this discussion yesterday.
30:41
All you need, I think this year specifically, do whatever you
30:46
can to try to reach to one Bitcoin specifically if you're
30:50
one of if you're part of the New York classes, class of 2024,
30:53
class of 2023, class of 2022, class of 2021, do whatever it
30:57
takes to try to get to 1 Bitcoin, 1/4 Bitcoin, half a
31:01
Bitcoin move mountains, because I think the train is leaving the
31:05
station and I think the era of the everyday person being able
31:11
to reach that whole coiner status, unfortunately is slowly
31:16
closing. Just most people don't have
31:19
$60,000 laying around. That's that's an insane amount
31:23
of money. I'm for so the same amount of
31:25
money. I'll, I'll put it like that.
31:27
So anyways, so why am I saying that one Bitcoin is enough?
31:30
Well, I'll make the case for you guys right now.
31:32
We'll check out the Wen Moon open source, kind of like
31:37
calculator designed by, you know, a bitcoiner called Jimbo.
31:41
And we'll, we'll kind of go down that that rabbit hole.
31:45
But before we do that, I have a little bit of an update.
31:47
This is the news segment. The Telegram CEO was released on
31:52
a €5 million bill yesterday. But he is not going to be
31:56
allowed to leave France anyways. And why was he arrested?
32:00
He was arrested for not wanting to moderate the content on
32:05
Telegram. Anyways.
32:07
So here is Michael Saylor's historic keynote at the Bitcoin
32:11
2024 conference, the conference that Donald J Trump gave a
32:15
speech on and the the conference that RFK gave a speech on, I
32:19
would say is one of the most in in my book, right?
32:22
One of the most historic Bitcoin conferences in history.
32:25
I would say the only conference that comes like to par with that
32:28
was 2021 where Naimbu Kelly made his announcements that El
32:32
Salvador was going to make Bitcoin legal tender.
32:34
So anyway, look how far we've come.
32:36
It's only been three years. It's crazy.
32:37
Anyways, so let's check out what Michael Saylor has to say in
32:40
terms of what he believes one Bitcoin will be worth by the
32:43
year 202045 S exactly 21 years from now.
32:49
So if you're in your 30s or if you're in your 40s, you're going
32:52
to be in your 60s or you're going to be in your 50s.
32:54
So let's check it out. Here we go.
32:55
Here's my macro Bitcoin forecast.
32:58
It's 21 years goes out to the year 2045.
33:03
What do I think will happen? Well, I've got a bear case and a
33:06
bull case, but what I think will happen is that 55% ARR goes to
33:10
50 percent, 454035302520. It's between 50 and 20.
33:18
It'll gradually decelerate till it's growing about twice as fast
33:22
as the S&P index. And at that rate, bitcoins $13
33:27
million a coin in the year 2045, 13 million, it could be, it
33:32
could be a 3 million bear case. It could be a 49 million bull
33:36
case. But what is Bitcoin?
33:38
7% of the world's assets then? Here's my macro Bitcoin for.
33:43
So again, the bear case 3 million, base case 13 million
33:49
and the bull case $49 million, right?
33:53
Even with the bear case and $1 million or $3,000,000 Bitcoin,
33:56
that's $3,000,000. If you, you know, if you're, if
34:00
you spend $100,000 a year, $3,000,000, it will last you,
34:05
you know, 30. Yeah, like 30 years, I believe.
34:08
Am I doing the math correctly? Yeah, 30 years, not to mention
34:11
the fact that that Bitcoin is still appreciating overtime.
34:15
So it's not just $3,000,000 in the year 2045.
34:19
I'm assuming it's going to appreciate from 2045 to 2055 as
34:24
well, right? So that's why I believe, I think
34:26
all you need is one Bitcoin. And I'm going to pull up like
34:29
this really, really cool calculator where I'm going to
34:32
put it in the chat and I'm going to put it in the video
34:34
description where you guys could plug in, you know, your your
34:38
personal situation and you can estimate he calls it when, when
34:43
moon. But basically, given your
34:45
Bitcoin stack, when can you retire?
34:48
So anyways, before we get that, let's break down the numbers.
34:52
So Michael Saylor, you're 2045 exactly 21 years from now.
34:55
Bayer 3 million, base 13 million, Bowl 49 million.
35:00
And I have a really interesting thing that I always run into,
35:03
which is how many millionaires are there around the world,
35:06
right? So it's estimated between 50 to
35:09
65,000,000. I'm going to do the upper bound
35:12
65,000,000. If every millionaire around the
35:15
world wanted to buy. This is what British auto was
35:18
talking about yesterday. Wanted to buy one Bitcoin.
35:21
They literally physically could not do so.
35:25
If it was equally divided, every millionaire would only get .32
35:30
Bitcoin. You can't print more of it, you
35:33
can't create more of it. This is the absolute scarcity
35:37
playing out. And This is why Bitcoin is the
35:41
apex predator and it's going to just continue to grow.
35:45
It is the superior asset. What do I mean by that?
35:48
You can't just sell your house overnight, right?
35:51
You can't do that. You can't take it with you.
35:52
You have to pay property taxes on it.
35:54
You have to maintain it. Equities.
35:56
Let's talk about equities, right?
35:58
Most countries don't, I mean, most companies don't last
36:01
forever. Not to mention the fact that
36:03
those equities, let's say you had to leave the country, let's
36:06
say you want to move. You can't really take that with
36:08
you, right? Bitcoin, you know, you write
36:11
down, you stamp your seed phrase into titanium using the stamp
36:14
seed kit promo code Rumble 21 for 21% off.
36:18
And you can literally like your generational wealth.
36:21
You can take it with you, right? And if you're in a pickle, you
36:23
can memorize those words and you will do so if you're in a
36:26
pickle. And so it empowers the
36:28
individual the likes of which it's never seen before in human
36:31
history. But anyway, so let's get to the
36:34
When Moon calculator designed by our boy Jimbo.
36:38
So it allows us to kind of plug in all these different
36:41
variables. We're going to stick to the one
36:43
Bitcoin stack. It allows you to plug in the
36:46
inflation rate. So let me look up what the
36:49
current inflation rate is in the US.
36:52
So it is currently 2.9%. So let's put it in right there
36:56
and then you have to here's where the speculation comes
36:59
from, which is what is the annual Bitcoin appreciation
37:03
rate. Some people are saying it's as
37:05
high as 50, some people are saying it's as low as 20.
37:08
But I'm going to pass it on to Kent.
37:10
Kent, I'm not asking you to what speculate what the price is
37:13
going to be, but if you're moving forward and if you're the
37:16
CEO of a Bitcoin mining company, you have to take this into
37:21
consideration. I'm sure you have an assumption
37:24
of what you believe the annual Bitcoin appreciation rate on a
37:27
percentage term is going to be moving forward.
37:30
So what should I plug in into the calculator?
37:34
I think you muted cat. Let's go 30.
37:39
Let's. Go with 30.
37:40
All right, so let's put in 30 into the calculator and let's
37:47
refresh the page. I don't know what happened here.
37:50
I think it froze. There we go.
37:56
What is happening with this page?
37:58
I just used it this morning. There it is.
38:08
Should be working now. OK.
38:09
So with a with a 30% appreciation rate and just with
38:17
one Bitcoin, right, And with the current stack value of roughly
38:22
59 K, your desired income, that's another key component.
38:27
I'm going to pass it on to Opti. Opti, What would be your desired
38:30
yearly income? I mean, I, I kind of like that
38:34
100K, but what's, what's like the average income or median
38:38
income for like middle class people?
38:41
Is it like 70K or something like that average?
38:43
Salary in the United States is roughly the price of one
38:46
Bitcoin, so it's roughly. Just.
38:48
Shoot that $3000, right? So we're going to do this and
38:55
we're going to plug in these numbers, and now let's take a
38:57
look at the data. When moon.
38:59
So what does when moon mean? When moon means given your
39:03
Bitcoin stack, when can you retire of one Bitcoin with you
39:09
want to pull out $63,000 a year And the inflation rate in the
39:13
United States is 2.9% and the annual Bitcoin appreciation rate
39:17
is roughly 30%. And the math comes out too.
39:21
It's a lot sooner than I think a lot of people anticipated
39:24
January 31st of 2031. So you don't even have to wait
39:31
21 years. You literally have to wait less
39:34
than 10. So yeah, I mean, this is a
39:36
pretty cool calculator. You guys could kind of, you
39:39
know. Wait, Nico, let's, let's mess
39:41
with this now. Let's really have some fun.
39:43
All right, Put in appreciation rate at 55.
39:46
That's what Saylor was saying. And then what, what, what, what
39:50
would he say is the real inflation rate?
39:52
Like maybe 1015%? Go with like 10%.
39:56
All right, so let's play let's definitely play around a bit but
39:59
before before we do that, I think I want to I want to test
40:02
out like just more kind of lower ends, right.
40:05
So let's go with like .25 Bitcoin your again, your
40:12
retirement date would be January 3rd, 2037.
40:16
Someone with half a Bitcoin. Your retirement date, if Bitcoin
40:21
continues to appreciate annually at 30%, would be.
40:24
January 17th, 2034. So even if you don't get to that
40:28
one Bitcoin, all it's doing is just it's extending the, the
40:32
date a little bit longer. But this is pretty crazy, man.
40:35
This, this is, This is why we always say like Bitcoin is hope,
40:38
like Bitcoin allows you to plan for the future because it
40:42
maintains and not only does it maintain your purchasing power,
40:44
it helps grow your purchasing power.
40:46
OK, Opti, what numbers do you want me to plug in here?
40:49
A. Do one and then do like 10%
40:54
inflation and 55 appreciation rate.
40:59
OK, so I. Think the, I think the like
41:02
shadow stats is somewhere around 10 to 8% inflation right now.
41:06
But I I think in in real terms it feels like 15 to 20.
41:10
All right, so let's reload the page cuz I think it little froze
41:13
here a little bit. Let's let it load.
41:19
Cue the music, opti. There we go.
41:21
And then. So inflation rate is what?
41:27
Do like 10 I I think it's like 8 So what people are saying but do
41:31
10 just do 10. All right.
41:33
And 55 that's very aggressive, but I'll take it.
41:37
But. Taylor's saying 55% year year
41:42
over year growth. All right 63,000 here we go and
41:48
your personal moon date with one Bitcoin 10% inflation annual
41:54
Bitcoin appreciation date would be 2027.
41:59
This would be October 28th, 2027, so literally around the
42:04
block. Three years from now all.
42:06
Right, all right, now mess with it Nico and go to 100K instead
42:09
of 63. All right, let's we, we don't
42:12
want to just be average here. All right, so your personal moon
42:17
day, if you have one Bitcoin, the inflation rate would be 10,
42:22
the inflation rate would be 10%, and the annual Bitcoin
42:26
appreciation rate appreciation rate would be 55%.
42:30
Your personal moon day, meaning the day that you can literally
42:33
start to withdraw Bitcoin daily out of your stack, would be
42:41
March 3rd, 2029. So this is a really interesting
42:44
calculator. I'm gonna put it in the video
42:46
description. Opti, have we put it in the chat
42:49
yet? Yeah, you put it in.
42:51
YouTube and I put it in Rumble. Sweet.
42:52
So you guys could kind of play around with it.
42:54
But yes, the message is you can retire off one Bitcoin.
42:58
It's just a matter of low time preference.
43:01
Do whatever it takes to get to 1.
43:03
And this is a really kind of cool calculator where you can
43:07
kind of apply it. I personally what I would do
43:09
guys, what I would recommend it is I would go down the
43:13
conservative route. I would put in 20 and I would
43:17
put in whatever the the reported inflation rate is, let's say 3
43:22
and then whatever it is your annual income.
43:25
That's what I would do to plan personally, right?
43:28
Just because you want to be pleasantly surprised rather than
43:32
disappointed. And there it kind of changes the
43:35
story, right? It kind of matches up to, you
43:37
know, the sailor date of 2040, right?
43:40
So of course, I think Bitcoins going to definitely perform
43:44
better than 20% a year. But you know, that kind of gives
43:47
you a more conservative outlook, which is the year 2040 roughly.
43:53
You know, I don't know how many years from now, 16 years from
43:55
now, you'll be able to retire off one Bitcoin.
43:58
And this is a very extremely conservative estimate, I would
44:04
say. I mean, what, what do you think,
44:05
Ken? Do you think that's
44:06
conservative? A 20% annual Bitcoin
44:08
appreciation rate? What's your take?
44:11
Yeah, I think that's too conservative.
44:13
But here's the thing, it's really hard to say going out to
44:16
2040 what it's going to be because my base case right now
44:21
is that we're on the crux of a major phase shift with bitcoins
44:26
adoption. You know, it feels like we are
44:28
now at like the corporate level is my thesis, like we're going
44:32
to see massive corporate adoption that drives price this
44:35
cycle. And I think the next cycle is
44:37
the sovereign nation states are are throwing their capital at
44:40
this and we're dealing with the nation state in fighting for
44:43
Bitcoin. So let's see how it plays out.
44:45
But because of that, I think the next eight years are going to
44:48
see much higher appreciation and then after we'll probably start
44:53
to gradually slow down. Yeah, absolutely.
44:56
I, I agree with that. And I agree, by the way, that
44:58
we're on the cusp of something huge just due to all the
45:02
interest coming out of, of all the institutions, right?
45:05
Where you have Goldman Sachs, you have large banks including
45:08
Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, I believe Goldman Sachs.
45:12
You have the Wisconsin pension fund, you have the second
45:15
largest bank in Europe. They've all got have exposure to
45:19
Bitcoin, not direct spot Bitcoin, but through the ETF.
45:23
So yes, I think I completely agree with you, Kent.
45:25
I think we're on the verge of something and we've never seen
45:28
before in Bitcoin's history, which is this crazy
45:31
institutional adoption. And remember, nothing else in
45:34
human history has Bitcoin scarcity.
45:37
Gold has an inflation rate and gold is scarce.
45:41
But when the price of gold goes up, the amount of gold that's
45:45
being mined out of the ground goes up with it.
45:47
So the round, the inflation rate of gold is roughly 2 to 3% on a
45:51
yearly basis. The inflation rate of Bitcoin
45:53
currently, I think it's at 1.42% and literally every four years
45:58
it is designed to get cut in half, which is why Michael
46:01
Saylor literally says that it's going up forever, Laura.
46:05
Anyways, everybody, let's get to the culture.
46:07
Let's talk about SAS mining. Let's talk about mining in
46:10
general with Kent, the CEO of SAS.
46:12
Let's check it out. Here we go the daily culture all
46:25
right everybody, I want to tell you about our sponsor, the
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The orange pull app is the Bitcoin social layer.
46:48
It allows you to connect with other bitcoiners and it has a
46:51
really cool geographical feature.
46:54
So when you're traveling, perhaps you've lived in your
46:56
city for a while and you just don't know any bitcoiners around
46:59
you. It will literally list the
47:00
bitcoiners around you and allow you to send them a message
47:03
directly, sparking up a conversation and you know,
47:06
building up your bitcoiner Rolodex.
47:09
It's also one of the best ways to reach me directly.
47:11
I'm on the orange pull up. You can send me Adm I'll answer
47:14
you. And of course, it is also the
47:16
number one resource for Bitcoin only event.
47:19
So if you're traveling to conferences and all that stuff,
47:22
and let's say you stay at that city for a week and there's no
47:25
conference days the other days and you don't know what to do at
47:28
night, the Orange Pull app is for you to get started.
47:30
Scan the QR code or check the link in the video description.
47:34
Check out the Orange Pull app today.
47:36
All right, I'm so excited to have Kent back on the show.
47:39
So I'm going to start it off with the beginning, which is
47:42
Kent. And let's pull up the promo code
47:44
for you guys. SAS mining.com/simplybitcoin
47:48
Kent What is SaaS mining? SaaS mining is the ultimate way
47:54
to dollar cost average into a Bitcoin position and get wild
47:58
SaaS in the process, right. So there's been actually kind of
48:02
a massive realization that I've had in the last, since the last
48:06
time we spoke, which is that we as an industry offering mining
48:12
as a service have been confusing the market.
48:15
And I say this because Bitcoiners often say, well,
48:18
jeez, Bitcoin mining, I don't know about the returns of
48:21
Bitcoin mining, you know, the ROI and all this.
48:23
And I'm sitting here scratching my head and I'm like, don't you
48:26
want to acquire Bitcoin? Why are you analyzing it from a
48:29
Fiat return standpoint? And so we're focusing in on that
48:33
and looking at, okay, how do you compare this opportunity to
48:37
acquiring Bitcoin and other mechanisms, right?
48:41
And the right way to think about this is as a dollar cost
48:44
averaging tool, right? Your mining rig is going to last
48:46
for at least three years and you're going to be dollar cost
48:49
averaging the value of that mining rig over the next three
48:52
years. Yes, you've got to pay for
48:53
electricity. But when you plug all that into
48:56
the gold standard for what does it cost to mine a Bitcoin, which
49:00
is Galaxy Digital's model, you can see that right now you can
49:03
acquire Bitcoin at about 20% the price of spot right now.
49:08
And you can dollar cost average that way.
49:10
And get wild sats in the process.
49:12
And what I mean by wild sats is just simply sats that are
49:14
outside the system, right? It doesn't feel like you've got
49:17
a surveillance camera in the room with you with your sats.
49:19
So that's what we offer, an opportunity to get Bitcoin
49:22
basically to discount and do so in a sovereign and Bitcoin
49:26
native way. Beautiful, beautiful.
49:28
What if you don't have any experience in mining whatsoever
49:32
and you're just like, I don't even know what to mine like this
49:35
sounds awesome. Wild sats, you know, getting
49:38
Bitcoin cheaper that if your dollar cost averaging.
49:41
But like, whoa, wait, I've never mined Bitcoin before.
49:43
I don't even know how to do this.
49:45
Is SAS mining. Does SAS mining offer Like could
49:49
someone who's a novice who's never done this before, could
49:51
they use something like SAS? I would say that's a good chunk
49:55
of our client base right now. And so let me explain how it
49:58
works. Let's say, Nico, you want to go
50:01
start mining, right? So you go on our website, you
50:03
choose one of two models of mining rigs, swipe your credit
50:06
card because of course you want to cycle your Fiat into Bitcoin,
50:09
right? And we get that purchase, that
50:12
mining rig procured, shipped from China to our data center in
50:15
Paraguay. We get it put on the rack.
50:17
We say, hey, Nico, it's on the rack.
50:20
You go into your dashboard, you start a Service plan to pay for
50:24
your monthly electricity bill. And once that's paid for and
50:28
you've provided us a Bitcoin address, the Bitcoin starts to
50:31
flow to your address from the mining pool, right?
50:34
So we're hands off, don't touch your Bitcoin.
50:37
But what we do do is we pass through the cost, right?
50:41
So you need to pay for your mining rig and electricity.
50:43
We make no money on those things.
50:45
We just pass them through and on the back end, when the mining
50:49
rewards are sent out from the mining pool, we instruct the
50:52
mining pool to simply separate that reward and send just 15% to
50:56
us. So that's our profit margin.
50:58
It's also a perfect alignment of incentives with our clients to
51:02
make sure that we care about exactly the same things they do
51:05
and we're going to make good decisions on their behalf.
51:09
I love that. Yeah, no, it's, it's, it's
51:11
aligned incentives, which I think are very important as, as,
51:14
as, as a Bitcoiner, right. And again, I love the fact that
51:18
it's kind of like the Uber of, of Bitcoin mining in a way,
51:22
right? You know, it's like it's very,
51:24
very easy to use AI, it's intuitive, it's easy to
51:27
understand. So if anyone like kind of want
51:30
to gets their wants to get their feet wet without having to go
51:33
because like, I'll be honest with you guys, like I, I got
51:36
into the industry through mining.
51:38
I didn't get into the industry through media.
51:41
Looking back in hindsight, maybe I should have stuck that out,
51:44
but you never know. But but anyways, so it's not
51:51
easy. It's not easy.
51:53
It has a learning curve. And back in my era is the era of
51:55
the S9, right? Like now these puppies are a lot
51:58
bigger, they're a lot harder and they require, they're a lot
52:00
hotter and they require a lot more energy.
52:03
So the learning curve is high. You will make a ton of mistakes,
52:06
and in making a ton of mistakes, you will lose a tremendous
52:10
amount of money in the process. So that's just kind of like the
52:14
reality of where Bitcoin mining is today, specifically since,
52:18
you know, we've been in the ASIC era for a long time now.
52:21
So I love what you guys do. You hide all the complexities
52:25
behind a very nice UI user interface and allows people to,
52:30
you know, get the benefits of Bitcoin mining without perhaps.
52:34
You know, going through all the. Complexities in the learning
52:37
curve that comes with it. Anyways, I do want to pivot the
52:40
conversation. Guys, check out SAS
52:42
mining.com/simply Bitcoin. I highly recommend it.
52:46
Go check it out. It's Bitcoin mining as a
52:48
service. I do want to pivot the
52:49
conversation and cover some topics.
52:51
I see Opti has an article pulled up.
52:54
So Opti, let's talk about that. Yeah.
52:56
So as we're saying and telling you guys, you know, we're
52:59
bringing Kent on a lot on the show as someone that's in the
53:02
industry. We're going to just have him
53:04
constantly update us on what's going on in the Bitcoin mining
53:07
space. And of course, guys send him
53:10
DMS, ask him questions on Twitter, blow his notifications
53:14
up. If you want to hear something
53:15
specifically answered, hit up Kent and we'll cover it on the
53:19
show when he gets back on. But one of the most recent
53:22
things that we saw, which we covered on the show, it's pretty
53:26
big news. I'm actually going to connect
53:28
two different stories right here, Kent, and then I'll and
53:30
then I'll have your takes on it. Of course, reading the headline,
53:32
Putin signs landmark law legalizing Bitcoin mining across
53:35
Russia. And the next news we saw, which
53:38
is kind of the opposite take here, Malaysian police
53:41
steamrolled 985 Bitcoin miners again in power theft crackdown.
53:46
So on the one hand, we're seeing Russia embrace Bitcoin.
53:49
On the other hand, we're seeing Malaysia kind of try to stop, I
53:53
guess for lack of better terms, illegal Bitcoin mining in their
53:56
country. So it seems like the game theory
53:59
of Bitcoin mining is playing out.
54:01
And and of course, you know, in the Malaysia, it's probably not
54:04
the best way to be mining is by stealing electricity.
54:08
But you're seeing two different takes here.
54:09
So what's your overall view right here on these two
54:12
different stories, Kent? Well, I, I think you nailed it,
54:15
right. We're seeing the, the game
54:18
theory adoption of Bitcoin playing out here.
54:21
So touching first on the Malaysian story because I, I
54:24
love that picture. It cracked me up when I saw it.
54:26
So I, I grew up in the age of, dare you know, just say, just
54:30
say no to drugs. And I remember seeing all these
54:32
drug bust photos of the police officer standing around with
54:35
like, you know, tables filled with like cocaine or marijuana
54:39
or whatever. And this is just like that exact
54:41
vibes here, right? You see him in the background,
54:44
the police officer is like, we got these illegal computational
54:47
devices and it's just so it cracks me up to see this going
54:50
on. Power theft is real, right?
54:52
I will, I will make a comment on that.
54:54
In Paraguay we see a lot of that like 400 megawatts worth, which
54:57
is an unbelievable, like 1.2 million households worth of
55:01
power that was being stolen at one point in Paraguay.
55:04
And this is literally people going and sticking jumper cables
55:07
on the, on the electric lines to get, get free power, right?
55:09
So that's I, I'm fully on board with not, not stealing property,
55:16
but I think absolutely absurd that they, they chose to
55:19
steamroll this. I mean, just like the, the war
55:23
against drugs, you know, burning all that marijuana or cocaine
55:26
certainly hasn't slowed down the appetite black market demand.
55:29
So kind of a silly approach. I think Russia's approach is a
55:32
lot wiser. You know, what wasn't said in
55:35
that article is they legalized Bitcoin mining, but not the use
55:38
of Bitcoin itself, which I find an interesting discrepancy.
55:41
So it's kind of rules for me, but not for these sort of a
55:45
situation, but a very powerful signal right here.
55:48
You've got a nation state that has huge amounts of energy and
55:52
they're saying, hmm, maybe we've got these capital controls,
55:55
let's go monetize our energy so we can slip around these these
55:59
these controls. So to me, it seems like Russia
56:02
has taken advantage of the unsensible nature of the Bitcoin
56:05
network to get around state, state level sanctions that are
56:08
currently on them by monetizing all their energy.
56:11
So I think powerful, that's definitely going to lead to
56:14
reverberations and actions on the geopolitical stage and
56:18
fascinating to see and just kind of one more notch forward in
56:21
Bitcoin's adoption journey. Yeah, love it, love it.
56:24
OK, And the next story we literally had the Bit X creator,
56:28
the like a day or after this news came out, but someone else
56:33
in the industry, we saw that the Bit X solo miner got a block by
56:38
themselves, you know, stacked 3.125 off what, like $100 little
56:43
little machine. And so is another Bitcoin mining
56:46
being in the industry. And I think even the last time
56:48
we were you came on the show, we were kind of, I think we were
56:51
talking about ocean that day. And so this is a great
56:55
development in the Bitcoin space.
56:57
So again, as another Bitcoin miner, what's your take on that
57:00
bid X solo mining block? So I love it, right?
57:05
I love it as long as us bitcoiners are educated enough
57:10
on mining to understand what it is that we're purchasing, right?
57:12
So I think really what the bid axe movement taps into is I
57:17
think there's this latent desire in all of us in the Bitcoin
57:20
community to feel like we're a little bit more a part of what's
57:24
going on, right. So the fact that there's a
57:26
financial incentive and you can be plugged into the pulse of the
57:29
network directly, you know, and that, that every 1010 minutes a
57:33
new block is created that, that pulse, you know, and
57:36
participating. I, I think that there's, there's
57:39
something just really powerful about it.
57:41
So I, I, I haven't ordered one yet, but I'm thinking about it
57:45
and I love that part. However, what I don't like is I,
57:48
I see out on Twitter at least that there are people that are
57:52
proclaiming these to be a lot more powerful than they are.
57:56
And I just went through the math and you know, it is a very small
58:01
odds situation that you are going to be procuring the block.
58:06
It is on par with a lottery ticket as long as you are
58:09
comfortable with, hey, I'm participating with the network
58:12
and I've got a lottery ticket odds to procuring Bitcoin
58:16
through my my bid acts totally cool.
58:19
Go do it. But you know, I think I saw
58:21
somebody that was posting that it was like 15% odds of getting
58:25
a block with this. And I was just like, Oh my God,
58:27
don't, please don't delude people because we don't want to
58:29
be getting into the, the, the shit coin arena here with the,
58:33
with these bid axes. So, you know, love them and and
58:37
we'll see people participate in the mining sector and
58:39
understanding that better and don't want to see people hurt in
58:42
the process. Well, breaking news, though,
58:45
Nico breaking a shout out to Matthew J in the chat.
58:47
Apparently someone else found a solo block with a bid ax today
58:51
as well. So I think that just came out on
58:53
Twitter. So that's two solo block from a
58:56
bid act Absolutely incredible. That's that's wild.
59:00
I mean, I mean like what what the, what's the Ken?
59:03
What's the block subsidy right now?
59:04
It's like 3.25 right? Roughly. 3.125 plus the
59:09
transaction fees and and I I went through the odds you know
59:12
these things are a little less than one Tera hash and we've got
59:17
640 X hash is the network cache rate right now and which is
59:22
640,000 PETA hash or 640 million Tera hash.
59:28
So if you have a one Tera hash unit on the network, that is the
59:33
math, you divide 1 by 640 million and that is your odds of
59:37
procuring the block. Now there's luck involved too,
59:40
right? And that's, that's kind of that
59:42
gets into a completely another rabbit trail that you can really
59:46
get lost down. But you know, you're sort of
59:49
counting on the luck to to procure a block.
59:52
And I love seeing it and, and it brings a lot of fun and joy to
59:55
the entire movement. However, if you want to plan on
59:58
it rationally, not not your best approach.
1:00:01
No, not, not, not at all. It's like it you spend what,
1:00:04
$200 for a one in 600 million, whatever, 600 million chance of
1:00:11
winning. But I would say that like it
1:00:14
the, the, the, the plus side of it as well is that you're
1:00:18
decentralizing the hash rate and one bid axe isn't going to do
1:00:22
anything. But let's say 1,000,000 people
1:00:24
around the world own one bid axe each.
1:00:28
Like there we go, you know, like that is that is some, that is
1:00:32
some decentralized hash rate, like good luck shutting that
1:00:35
down type of thing, you know, So I think it, it, it's, it's much
1:00:40
more than a novelty. I think it decentralizes the
1:00:42
hash rate as as a collective. If a lot of people buy a bid axe
1:00:47
and of course you have the chance to win the lottery,
1:00:50
right, 100 and what $187,000 lottery for a $200.00 ticket.
1:00:56
And it's not a one time thing like you can you, you can run
1:00:59
this. I know the, the, the odds of you
1:01:01
winning are just continue to go down over time.
1:01:04
But like, you know, statistically speaking,
1:01:07
statistically speaking, on a long enough time scale, you will
1:01:11
win. Oh, wait, wait, wait.
1:01:13
OK, clarify, clarify. Sorry, I'm, I'm, I'm fact
1:01:16
checking this live in the chat right now.
1:01:18
So blame my Matthew J. But apparently it's still
1:01:22
unconfirmed whether it was a bid act.
1:01:23
It says solo minor on men pull dot space so don't don't want to
1:01:27
be spreading fake news here that.
1:01:29
I would, I would. That's why I was so skeptical.
1:01:31
I was like dude, the odds of that too happening like.
1:01:34
Yeah, look, yell at Matthew J right now, or you can yell at
1:01:38
me. I'll take the heat.
1:01:39
Whatever, you know, I'm taking myself live.
1:01:41
And let's pivot this conversation. 11 I believe.
1:01:45
But like, yeah, even then I'm kind of like, OK, OK, so.
1:01:49
Whatever, trying to factor his live.
1:01:52
But Nico, let me let me you mentioned something I think
1:01:54
important there, right. So we get lots of these bid
1:01:56
access out there. Let's put it in comparison to
1:01:59
the network though. If each bid acts as one Tera
1:02:01
hash and I don't think that they quite are even one Tera hash.
1:02:04
But if you have a million of those out there, that is one Exa
1:02:08
hash, right? And the network right now is
1:02:10
640. So what I see them doing is it's
1:02:13
kind of like the buyer of last resort, meaning that if there is
1:02:17
a massive crackdown and all the publicly traded miners that are
1:02:21
providing most of the Exa hash out there completely get, you
1:02:24
know, the, the, the, the noose around their necks have to shut
1:02:29
down, then this is kind of like the buyer last resort.
1:02:32
They're going to be able to backstop the, the network and
1:02:34
keep it alive and going. So I, I do love it from that
1:02:37
standpoint, but I also don't want to over emphasize like what
1:02:41
is really likely to occur with this, this amount of Terra hash
1:02:45
compared to the industrial size. I mean, they're just, they're
1:02:47
the scopes and scales of these things are so dramatically
1:02:50
different. Absolutely, 100%.
1:02:52
OK, OK, Nika, sorry. I know, I know we're getting
1:02:55
close to the the top of the hour here or rather past the hour
1:02:58
here. But I do want to ask can't one
1:03:00
last question. I do have some more headlines
1:03:02
here. So this ones more like what I
1:03:04
was saying, just the general take of the the mining space
1:03:07
right now. And we have this headline here,
1:03:09
you know, will the Bitcoin mining bull run ever return?
1:03:12
And then on the flip side, we also saw Bitcoin fees
1:03:15
skyrocketing in the last week or so.
1:03:18
So what's your general take on not only the Bitcoin network in
1:03:23
at large and maybe what you'll see coming down the pipeline in
1:03:26
the next year or so, but also what's going on with the fees?
1:03:30
Yeah, I think that the the fees are the most underestimated
1:03:34
portion of the Bitcoin network right now from a mining
1:03:37
perspective. I mean, most people talk about
1:03:38
the block subsidy, so that's the 3.125.
1:03:42
But the block fees, it's, it's still such a nascent part of the
1:03:47
mining income and and forecasting.
1:03:51
And I think that that's actually a bit of a mistake because if
1:03:53
you look at it, let's say just all things being equal, the
1:03:57
average fees in a block or about 4% of the block reward or the
1:04:01
block subsidy and we suddenly have a having, well, now it's
1:04:05
8%, right? Just simply by the fact that
1:04:08
the, the block subsidy got cut in half.
1:04:10
And you know, there's, there's a fellow Bob Burnett, I think he's
1:04:13
fairly well known in the industry, runs Barefoot mining
1:04:16
and he's done a lot of math on this.
1:04:17
And you know, we've got a limit of something like 800,000
1:04:21
transactions per year that can occur on the base chain.
1:04:25
And so anything over that is going to be full blocks pushing
1:04:28
transaction fees up. And there is a good argument to
1:04:32
be made that we're not far from being at that point in time.
1:04:36
And when that occurs now we suddenly have the block subsidy
1:04:40
plus basically an ever increasing pressure dynamic for
1:04:44
the other limited factor and the other scarce part of Bitcoin,
1:04:47
which is the block space. So I think people are sleeping
1:04:51
on block fees, to be completely honest.
1:04:53
And I think that they're going to be a much bigger portion of
1:04:56
the revenue stream for miners in the future.
1:04:59
And I think what we're seeing is glimpses of that today with some
1:05:02
of like the layer two shenanigans that are occurring
1:05:06
right now. Absolutely, 100%.
1:05:09
And wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
1:05:10
Mika, sorry, can't you're skirted the question though,
1:05:13
will the Bitcoin mining bull run return?
1:05:17
Oh, I didn't know that that was part.
1:05:18
Of the question I thought we discovered.
1:05:19
All these man no will it will the will the mining bull run
1:05:22
occur? Yeah, of course.
1:05:24
I mean, here's the thing. If you don't believe in the four
1:05:27
year Bitcoin price cycle, then no, the the the mining bull run
1:05:31
will not happen again. But the the the fundamental
1:05:35
reason why this will happen is because when price runs, you
1:05:39
simply cannot build and deploy infrastructure fast enough to
1:05:42
keep up with that price run. So therefore there will be a
1:05:45
mining, a mining bull run during that time period where
1:05:49
infrastructure lags the the price movement.
1:05:53
That's where it comes from, right.
1:05:54
So right now actually from my vantage point is kind of the end
1:05:58
of this, this window before the price runs and we get back into
1:06:02
the bull market. The the flip side of that
1:06:04
dynamic though is it's also the worst time to be mining.
1:06:07
If you look at like the hash price of the value of what
1:06:09
you're getting right now, it looks the worst.
1:06:12
But it's kind of the calm before the storm when Price rips and
1:06:15
then you make your best returns. At least if history continues to
1:06:18
play out. Yeah, and I think we can all
1:06:21
agree though, it's been a bloody bear market, crab market for the
1:06:24
last couple of years, especially for the Bitcoin miners, some out
1:06:27
there and the public Bitcoin miners.
1:06:29
Like if you guys are looking at their margins right now, it it's
1:06:32
absolutely incredible that some of these companies are still
1:06:35
profitable and and actually like surviving at this point 'cause
1:06:38
it's been rough. Yeah, I mean the hash rate
1:06:40
continues to go through the roof to having happened, right.
1:06:43
And you know, I, I think, but again, like I, I never forget a
1:06:48
good friend of mine came to my wedding.
1:06:51
It just actually was named CEO of Bit Farms, Ben Ganion.
1:06:54
And I never forget the way that he described Bitcoin mining to
1:06:57
me. He's like Nico, you just have to
1:06:59
look at it. It's a leveraged long and I'm
1:07:01
like, wow, that's such a like simple way of looking at it.
1:07:05
So it's like, and then in my own kind of career in the industry,
1:07:09
right? I wish I stuck it out.
1:07:12
I wish I stuck out in the mining world 'cause I got in, I got 27.
1:07:16
Could you imagine 2017 mining and just sticking out to, to, to
1:07:21
this year? Like it would have been great,
1:07:22
but 2018 was brutal. It was brutal.
1:07:25
And it just kind of reminds me of, you know, these, these kind
1:07:28
of down times in, in, in mining. Like these are the opportunities
1:07:32
to deploy hash. Like these are the opportunities
1:07:35
to get in 'cause usually when, when it's pumping like crazy,
1:07:42
you know, I, I wouldn't say it's, it's, it's, it's as great,
1:07:45
but mining is a very interesting world.
1:07:48
It's, it's, it's very cool. I definitely recommend every
1:07:51
Bitcoiner to at least experiencing experience it in
1:07:54
some front. Obviously, we recommend SAS
1:07:57
mining, Bitcoin mining as a service.
1:07:59
Go to sasmining.com/simply Bitcoin.
1:08:02
Check out the bid axe back in the day.
1:08:04
If you were to if you wanted to explore mining, you'd have to
1:08:07
get yourself an S nine and one of the rooms in your house would
1:08:10
get hot. But you know, the bidax guys
1:08:13
made that easy. So anyways, I do want to thank
1:08:16
our guests for today. Kent, CEO of SAS mining.
1:08:20
Go follow his Twitter account. He has some great takes on
1:08:24
mining and just the industry in general.
1:08:26
So follow him at I cannot pronounce that, but it's right
1:08:30
there. Just Kay Halliburton.
1:08:32
There we go. Thank you Opti, and go check out
1:08:34
SAS Mining. Anyway, who gave this guy a job
1:08:37
talking for a living and he can't read basic words?
1:08:40
Shit. And I still got here, bro.
1:08:43
Anyways, go check out sasmining.com/simply Bitcoin,
1:08:48
Bitcoin mining as a service. I'm your host, Nico, our guest
1:08:51
for today, Kent, and of course, my legendary Co host, Optimist
1:08:54
Field. So hopefully he shows up to
1:08:56
Optimistic tomorrow. We're simply Bitcoin Live Today
1:08:58
is August 29th, 2024, and we'll see you guys tomorrow for a
1:09:03
brand new episode. All right, everybody, take care.
1:09:08
It was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com on a mission to
1:09:12
enable independence.