Latest / Football Junkies podcast / Episode 14: Market forecast

Transcript

Episode 14: Market forecast · Football Junkies podcast

• 0:00
  The forecast might say it's raining, but guess what?
• 0:03
  It is dry as a bone outside.
• 0:06
  That's right, folks.
• 0:07
  We're going to be talking about the market forecast.
• 0:10
  This is going to be something that's going to be implemented during the off-season and
• 0:14
  during the season and post-season as well.
• 0:16
  I'm going to be talking about why do certain position markets reset so often.
• 0:21
  Future position markets that arise, how much does the draft effect position markets and
• 0:26
  what market values will remain stagnant?
• 0:29
  And all of this and more, as well as my predictions for the free agency class and the draft class.
• 0:37
  All of this and more.
• 0:38
  We're going to talk about all of this on the 14th episode of the Football Junkies Podcast.
• 0:44
  I am your host, your GM, your chief meteorologist, your financial advisor who currently isn't
• 0:53
  with a group right now.
• 0:55
  Kale, let's get it.
• 1:25
  All right, folks.
• 1:37
  Well, unfortunately, yes, we do not have no bagglers to talk about, but we do have a
• 1:42
  new segment as I've just said before.
• 1:45
  Decided to do something a little bit different.
• 1:48
  Allow us to analyze and take a deep breath and reflect on the bagglers that have happened.
• 1:55
  You know, just in this offseason alone and sort of pick apart, you know, why are things
• 2:00
  happening the way that they are right now?
• 2:02
  So let's just take a deep dive right into it.
• 2:05
  So when we look at, you know, when I decided to finally, you know, do something like this
• 2:11
  in a market forecast, I was thinking about it was like, how in the world don't want to,
• 2:15
  you know, break this down so people can understand this?
• 2:18
  Well, I got to put in my factors and, you know, what grounds of information do I use
• 2:24
  in order to make, you know, my predictions and whatnot.
• 2:27
  So here goes.
• 2:28
  Okay.
• 2:29
  So when I look at, you know, my market forecast, especially for the offseason leading into the
• 2:35
  start of the new season, okay, I look at for, you know, a few factors, right?
• 2:40
  The rising salary cap, teams valuing other, you know, certain positions than others, you
• 2:46
  know, impact as well as the free agency class.
• 2:49
  Okay.
• 2:50
  And in and in the future draft class as well, I forgot to leave that in my notes, but, you
• 2:57
  know, it's whatever.
• 2:59
  But the reason why I have those different things is because all of those things have
• 3:03
  a very, you know, very pivotal piece and why certain teams, you know, may overpay or,
• 3:11
  you know, reset the market more often for certain positions compared to others, right?
• 3:16
  And so, you know, when we, when I take a look at everything, you know, for one next year's
• 3:23
  draft class is supposed to be a defensive draft class.
• 3:26
  Okay.
• 3:27
  You're going to have, you know, a pretty good edge class.
• 3:31
  Okay.
• 3:32
  You're going to have a pretty good edge class.
• 3:34
  The running back class is pretty good as well.
• 3:36
  There's going to be some, you know, some good corners that are going to be coming out this
• 3:40
  class too.
• 3:41
  I can't tell you who they are right now because I'm still looking at tape and whatnot.
• 3:44
  But quarterback class, however, is a little bit rocky.
• 3:48
  And the reason why I say that is because there isn't someone, well, there isn't at least
• 3:53
  a group where it's like, okay, these guys are, you know, bonafide top five, you know,
• 4:00
  picks or, you know, they'll be taken in the first round somewhere in the middle or whatever.
• 4:05
  It's not like that.
• 4:06
  Okay.
• 4:07
  The only quarterback that I can think of right now, well, the only two quarterbacks I can
• 4:10
  think of that many teams may try to go after is Quinn Ewers from Texas and Carson Beck
• 4:17
  from Georgia.
• 4:18
  Those are only two.
• 4:19
  The only reason why I say that's because Carson Beck has, you know, it's probably the most
• 4:24
  experienced quarterback, you know, in college football right now.
• 4:27
  And I know there's going to be people saying, what about your door?
• 4:30
  What about your door?
• 4:32
  The reason why I left your door out, and I'm going to be completely honest with you.
• 4:36
  The reason why I did that is because personally, I feel like your door could, he has the potential
• 4:42
  to be a top five pick, but the problem is, is he going to have a better season than what
• 4:50
  he did previously?
• 4:52
  Because yes, I understand he didn't have, you know, the best offensive line.
• 4:55
  So he had to do whatever he had to do.
• 4:57
  And I understand that, you know, at first in the beginning part of the season, it was
• 5:01
  pretty good, and then as the season went on, it just, you know, got worse and worse.
• 5:06
  But Shador really has to show that he is a better quarterback than everybody else.
• 5:13
  Because if he doesn't, then, you know, scouts are just going to automatically disqualify
• 5:18
  him as a first round quarterback.
• 5:20
  And if we're being real here, his mechanics need to be worked on and refined more than
• 5:27
  just solely relying on his athleticism.
• 5:30
  And that is something that I feel like a lot of quarterbacks, you know, coming out of college
• 5:35
  rely on too much.
• 5:36
  Okay.
• 5:37
  I understand, yes, you may be athletic, but the problem is, is that what happens is once
• 5:44
  that athleticism is gone, you still have those mechanics.
• 5:49
  And if your mechanics weren't even worked on in college, let alone when you first got
• 5:53
  into the league, then they're going to be basically gone by the time your athleticism
• 5:59
  runs out and you need that as a quarterback.
• 6:01
  You do.
• 6:02
  You in my mind, personally, I feel like if your mechanics were worked on more than your
• 6:08
  athleticism, that will put you, that will put you in a better tier here to just, you
• 6:14
  know, oh, okay, well, I mean, I can run out the pocket and I know if I do this, you know,
• 6:19
  these two moves that, you know, it gets everybody and whatnot.
• 6:22
  No, it doesn't work like that.
• 6:24
  Okay.
• 6:25
  And so, you know, it's, it's one of those things where, you know, within the past few
• 6:30
  drafts, we've had more defensive, you know, draft classes and offensive draft classes.
• 6:35
  I think the only real draft, the only real offensive draft class that we've had was the
• 6:41
  one that just happened, you know, a few months ago, where you had Katelyn Williams and you
• 6:45
  had Roma Dunes day and you had, you know, JJ McCarthy and you had this person and that
• 6:50
  person, Marvin Harrison, Jr. You had all these offensive players that are coming out the
• 6:55
  draft at the same time.
• 6:57
  And so, you know, you have that and then, you know, now you're going back into the cycle
• 7:02
  where it's going to be a defensive draft class, you know, in next year.
• 7:07
  And, you know, who was to say that, you know, teams will be more open to possibly, you know,
• 7:13
  trading up or being aggressive to try to get one of those quarterbacks.
• 7:16
  I don't be personally, I just don't.
• 7:19
  I think the only person I probably would maybe be interested in is possibly Carson Beck.
• 7:25
  And even then, I still have to see how, how is he going to play this upcoming season, you
• 7:30
  know, with the SEC going through the things that they went through with, you know, Nick
• 7:34
  Saber and retiring and whatnot.
• 7:37
  But you know, that's another story for another day.
• 7:39
  Now, moving on to the free agency class.
• 7:42
  Okay.
• 7:43
  When we look at the free agency class for next year, to me personally, it's an older free
• 7:49
  agency class.
• 7:50
  You have more, you know, players who are, you know, a little bit up in age and some
• 7:56
  of them are, you know, they have, they have more, they have less years ahead of them than
• 8:02
  behind them.
• 8:03
  They're possibly looking, you know, to possibly, you know, win at least a championship or at
• 8:07
  least get on to a team that, you know, is protected, is projected to be a, you know,
• 8:13
  a playoff caliber team.
• 8:15
  And then you also have some who are looking for their first, you know, big contract, you
• 8:19
  know, and for instance, you know, T Higgins, right?
• 8:23
  T Higgins is somewhat of the outlier when it comes to the free agency class because
• 8:28
  he's not even close to being, you know, 29 or even 30 years old, right?
• 8:32
  Compared to when you have Stephon days, Khalil Mack, uh, Dak Prescott and, you know, Buddha
• 8:38
  Baker and company, you know, those are older players.
• 8:43
  And who was to say, you know, GMs will be willing to give them, you know, a pretty, a
• 8:48
  pretty significant deal, right?
• 8:50
  Some of them may try to nickel and dime them.
• 8:53
  Others may, you know, try to play the long game.
• 8:56
  Others may just, you know, just go through the draft and just get somebody compared to
• 9:00
  paying them.
• 9:01
  But you know, when you, when you really look at it, right?
• 9:06
  And this is, this is just my, my prediction, you know, personally for the free agency class
• 9:11
  next year, I truly believe that GMs are not going to give the traditional four years.
• 9:16
  I feel like they're going to give them at least a two or three year deal with a high
• 9:20
  signing bonus with a low year average.
• 9:23
  That way, if, you know, if anything crazy happens, guess what?
• 9:26
  They can move them off very quickly compared to having to, you know, deal with this large,
• 9:32
  you know, dead cat that they have to find a way to spread, you know, through the next
• 9:36
  two or three years or, you know, take it all at, you know, in one year and then be, be
• 9:42
  cool for the next few years or whatever the case may be, right?
• 9:46
  And so, you know, the reason, the reason why I value, you know, the free agency class as
• 9:50
  well as the draft class is because oftentimes if a team realizes that they cannot go and
• 9:58
  get, you know, a certain position or, or a certain player and whatnot, they'll just
• 10:03
  make up for it and get in, in, in free agency compared to having to, you know, you know,
• 10:10
  move, you know, 10 spots up to get to get that person or, you know, give up three first
• 10:14
  round picks or two first round picks or a first round pick in this player or, you know, whatever
• 10:19
  the case may be, right?
• 10:21
  And oftentimes, you know, teams will address, you know, a majority of their needs in the
• 10:27
  free agency and then maybe leave one, you know, one very big hole, you know, leading
• 10:33
  up to the draft based off of, you know, where they are in the draft or just, you know, their
• 10:37
  confidence that, you know, that player may, may fall or they will be able, you know, to
• 10:42
  get them with little to no movement, right?
• 10:46
  And moving on to the salary cap, right?
• 10:49
  Now, you're probably wondering, why is the salary cap so important?
• 10:52
  I'm going to tell you why.
• 10:54
  Because when you look at how, you know, how things went, you know, post pandemic, the
• 11:01
  league would, the league is just starting to like really be in a much better place compared
• 11:06
  to what they were maybe about two or three years ago, right?
• 11:10
  So let's look at these numbers.
• 11:11
  Okay.
• 11:12
  So when you look at 2021, right, their salary cap, 182.5 million.
• 11:17
  We look at 2022, 208.2 million.
• 11:21
  When you look at 2023, 224.8 million.
• 11:25
  When you look at 2024 this year, 255.4 million.
• 11:30
  That is $30 million per team from just this one year.
• 11:36
  And mind you, before the league put out their official number, there were a lot of people
• 11:42
  that were speculating if the number was going to be more or less or maybe even in the middle.
• 11:48
  And you know, once the number did finally come out, it actually surprised a lot of people
• 11:53
  because 30 million extra for a lot of teams, that is, you know, that can be the difference
• 11:59
  between having to cut a player or do a restructure or, you know, being in a better place where
• 12:06
  they can go after two or three people, two or three bigger, bigger name people in free
• 12:10
  agency compared to just, you know, the low level tier of free agents, no disrespect to
• 12:16
  them.
• 12:17
  And a lot of that has to do with, you know, the bigger TV deals as well as Taylor Swift.
• 12:24
  Now you're probably wondering, are you a Taylor Swift man?
• 12:26
  No, I am not.
• 12:27
  But we do have to recognize the influence that she brings because guess what?
• 12:33
  She's bringing her own fan base here.
• 12:35
  So when she's bringing all of her fans over to the NFL, guess what that's going to do?
• 12:41
  That's going to rise up those revenues.
• 12:45
  All of them.
• 12:46
  Because guess what?
• 12:47
  Anytime the Chiefs do something or Travis Kelsey scores a touchdown or gets a first
• 12:51
  down or makes a big play, guess what?
• 12:52
  The camera's going to go straight to her because that's the moneymaker right there.
• 12:56
  Okay.
• 12:57
  But that is another story for another day, unfortunately.
• 13:02
  But when we really look at it, right, positions, you know, there are certain positions that
• 13:09
  are going to be valued a little bit more than others, right?
• 13:13
  And you know, and you sort of see that with how the playoff teams are constructed.
• 13:18
  They have a, you know, premier, you know, premier tackle or that be, you know, both
• 13:23
  the left and right tackle or just mainly, you know, either the left or the right tackle.
• 13:28
  They have, you know, a pretty good receiving core running back is not invested, you know,
• 13:33
  as much the quarterback is probably, you know, signed to a longer term deal.
• 13:38
  And you know, the defense is, you know, pretty good to elite, right?
• 13:43
  And so when we really look at things, you know, teams value in a left tackle, your center,
• 13:50
  your quarterback and the number one receiver and possibly your tight end, depending on
• 13:54
  how things go.
• 13:55
  Now, when you move over to the defense, it's mainly your defensive tackles, your pass rushers
• 14:01
  and your corners.
• 14:02
  Okay.
• 14:03
  Middle line backers and safeties, they don't get as much love as they should, even though,
• 14:07
  you know, they play just as much as it does, right?
• 14:11
  And so, you know, I say all that to say this, right?
• 14:15
  When, when we really look at, you know, these, these, these bad alerts that we've had lately,
• 14:21
  you know, Trevor Lawrence, 55 million, Jared Gough, 53 million, Baker Mayfield, 33 million,
• 14:27
  Justin Jefferson, 35 million, Amon Ross, St. Brown, 30 million, AJ Brown, 32 million
• 14:33
  in here.
• 14:34
  Those markets, the quarterback market and the receiver market alone is getting to a point
• 14:39
  where, you know, although, although yes, you know, the, the, the receivers are better now
• 14:45
  than what they've ever been, however, the problem is the price tag that comes with them is starting
• 14:53
  to get a little bit excessive and it's going to take a team to basically, you know, put
• 14:59
  their foot, put their foot down and basically say, Hey, listen, we're not going to do this
• 15:03
  no more.
• 15:04
  Okay.
• 15:05
  Enough is enough because this market is just growing, you know, exponentially, it's getting
• 15:10
  out of control and, you know, we just need, we need things to cool down and to sort of
• 15:16
  regulate itself.
• 15:17
  Now a lot of that has to do with, you know, certain receivers and certain players as
• 15:23
  a whole getting overpaid than, you know, what they should be getting paid.
• 15:28
  And the reason why I say that is because when you overpay for a player, guess what happens?
• 15:33
  It messes up the entire market for that particular position because now, guess what?
• 15:38
  Players that are going to be looking for future contracts, they're going to use that person
• 15:42
  that got overpaid and say, Oh yeah, you see my stats, both stats are way better than what
• 15:46
  that person got overpaid for.
• 15:49
  And a lot of times it's, it's true, right?
• 15:52
  And so what you have is, you know, when you have someone like a Calvin Rintley, who he
• 15:57
  basically got overpaid with the Titans, the Christian Kirk, the one who came from Arizona
• 16:03
  and then went to Jacksonville.
• 16:05
  Those two examples alone for the receiver market, they got overpaid and it messed up
• 16:11
  a lot of things.
• 16:12
  And you know, before I go any further, I am pro player.
• 16:16
  I'm definitely pro player, but at the same time, it comes a time of point where, you
• 16:22
  know, just it's starting to get out of hand.
• 16:25
  It really is.
• 16:27
  Same thing with the quarterback market.
• 16:29
  Same thing with the defensive line market.
• 16:30
  Well, not the defensive line market, but the patch rush for market.
• 16:33
  Okay.
• 16:34
  So, you know, the defensive line market, they have just, you know, exploded and not really
• 16:39
  overnight, but they've definitely exploded within the last five to 10 years.
• 16:43
  Now a lot of that has to do with, you know, premier great players in those respective,
• 16:50
  you know, positions, but at the same time, it's like, yo, this has to, this has to slow
• 16:55
  down a little, just a little bit, not a whole lot, but just a little bit, right?
• 17:00
  And you know, it hasn't, it's just going to continue to grow, grow and grow.
• 17:03
  And also doesn't help, especially for quarterback, when you have to shine Watson basically getting
• 17:08
  a fully guaranteed deal, like it's just certain, certain contracts and certain players that,
• 17:15
  you know, it can mess up the entire market.
• 17:18
  And when it messes up the entire market, sometimes, you know, it can, it can cycle itself out
• 17:24
  and sort of regulate itself.
• 17:26
  And then other times it doesn't, and it messes up the market permanently.
• 17:30
  And then, you know, GMs are sort of stuck in this bind where it's either you have to
• 17:36
  overpay for, for that particular player, or, you know, you know, wish upon a star and policy,
• 17:42
  see if you can draft someone that can be as close or even better than them, right?
• 17:48
  And so, you know, when we look at, you know, when we look at, you know, teams and, and
• 17:55
  their impact for, you know, for free agents, you know, we have to realize that, you know,
• 18:00
  there are certain players, well, not even certain players, but certain free agents that
• 18:04
  you know that if you get them, and if you, you know, bring them on to your team, guess
• 18:09
  what's going to happen?
• 18:10
  That's going to instantly change your team from being this team that's not really looked
• 18:14
  at and not really as, you know, respected to a team that's like, oh man, they could
• 18:17
  be a playoff caliber team.
• 18:19
  And we've seen, we've seen that, we've seen that multiple times, right?
• 18:24
  We've seen it where, okay, for instance, when the Ravens traded for, you know, the
• 18:30
  Roquan Smith, everyone's like, yo, that, that, that was a crazy trade.
• 18:34
  Yo, that puts them over the top.
• 18:36
  That puts them in a great place because why?
• 18:39
  Because of his impact.
• 18:41
  That his impact alone can, you know, literally change the mindset of a lot of teams because
• 18:48
  now you have somebody who is, you know, at the top of their game and who is regarded as,
• 18:54
  you know, the best of the best now on an already stacked team.
• 18:59
  That's, you know, they're already thinking about a Super Bowl.
• 19:01
  They're already thinking about, you know, going here or going there or whatever the
• 19:05
  case may be.
• 19:06
  So, you know, you have those different types of things, but moving forward, you know, let's,
• 19:11
  let's get into, you know, my prediction for these rising markets and stagnant markets.
• 19:17
  Okay.
• 19:18
  And mind you, this episode is not going to be pretty long.
• 19:20
  It's going to be pretty short because I don't want to give you guys, you know, these long
• 19:25
  drawn out episodes.
• 19:27
  I'm going to try to give you something, you know, that's compact, that's not too long,
• 19:31
  but not too short, but it's just right because again, we are in this drought and I'm still
• 19:37
  looking at prospects and I'm still learning a few things.
• 19:40
  And it's just a whole lot of stuff going on in the background here at the footballs junkies
• 19:44
  podcast, but we always prioritize you guys first.
• 19:47
  Now, these are my predictions for the rising markets.
• 19:51
  Okay.
• 19:52
  Cornerback, center, guard, tight end running back.
• 19:56
  Now you're probably wondering why the running back market.
• 19:59
  The reason why I say that is because the running back market is it's not going to, you know,
• 20:05
  basically explode, but you are starting to see someone of a gradual rise and you see
• 20:12
  it especially with Christian McCaffrey.
• 20:14
  Okay.
• 20:15
  Christian McCaffrey in my mind will be the reason why the running back market crashes
• 20:20
  over that $20 million mark.
• 20:23
  And if it's not him, then it'll probably be Alvin Camero because they are two of the best
• 20:30
  running backs in the game right now.
• 20:33
  And you know, everybody realizes and knows that, you know, when they get on the field,
• 20:38
  they're going to change the game.
• 20:40
  Okay.
• 20:41
  They're influence alone can be a deciding factor if, you know, if the team gets a first
• 20:49
  down or if they get a touchdown.
• 20:51
  That's how big of an influence that they know that they have, but, but when we look at the
• 20:57
  tight end market, tight ends are starting to become a little bit more valuable simply
• 21:02
  because of, you know, because of the linebackers.
• 21:07
  The linebackers aren't as effective or as used as much as they were compared to when
• 21:13
  Ray Lewis was playing, right?
• 21:15
  Everybody knew that, you know, if he was going up the Ravens and, you know, Ray Lewis was
• 21:19
  playing, guess what, don't throw it in the middle.
• 21:23
  Now the rules a little bit more softened a little bit more tamped it down.
• 21:27
  So linebackers really can't do as many things as they want to do.
• 21:31
  And then not to mention there's not as, as many elite middle linebackers as they were,
• 21:39
  what maybe 10, maybe 15 years ago.
• 21:41
  Now you mainly have Fred Warner's of the world, the Roquan Smith's of the world.
• 21:47
  Is there anybody else I could think of?
• 21:50
  Is there anybody else I could think of?
• 21:52
  I mean, not bodywagoner because Bobby Wagner is a little bit older now, but, you know,
• 21:57
  you're Patrick Queens of the world.
• 21:58
  Okay.
• 21:59
  You, you have those type of middle linebackers now compared to, you know, back in the day,
• 22:05
  you know, you had Ray Lewis, you had this person, you had that person, James Farrier,
• 22:08
  you had all these different types of, you know, of people, right?
• 22:12
  And, you know, tight ends are starting to be more athletic.
• 22:18
  They can double, you know, for someone for, for being, you know, in the slot, they can,
• 22:23
  you know, move around, they can be, you know, elite blockers and still catch the ball pretty
• 22:27
  well and vice versa.
• 22:29
  So, you know, you have those different type of things.
• 22:32
  And you know, you're in a situation now where you have tight ends who are bigger, stronger,
• 22:38
  faster, more athletic, you know, and, you know, you know, you're in a situation now where
• 22:41
  you know, when, when we look at a lot of the elite teams, guess what they all have in common?
• 22:47
  They have an elite tight end.
• 22:49
  The 49ers, George Kittle, the Browns, David and Joe Coup, the Ravens, Mark Andrews, right?
• 22:56
  The Lions, Sam LaPorta.
• 22:59
  I was going to say the Eagles, but I'm not going to say the Eagles.
• 23:03
  But you know, just, you know, I just feel like they're going to get their, their market
• 23:10
  is going to rise, but it's not going to be to the point where it's going to be like,
• 23:14
  oh, this person is making 25 million.
• 23:16
  Oh, this person making 35 million.
• 23:18
  Oh, this person is making 40 million.
• 23:20
  No.
• 23:21
  Now, I will say this, you know, when you have people like Kyle Pitts, Pat Fiery, Moff and
• 23:26
  Company who pretty soon they're coming up for, you know, for new contracts, maybe there's
• 23:30
  a possibility that they may, you know, possibly reset the market or get close to resetting
• 23:36
  the market, but to say that, you know, the market is just going to, you know, explode
• 23:41
  like how other markets have.
• 23:42
  No, I just don't see that.
• 23:44
  Now moving on to offensive linemen.
• 23:46
  Okay.
• 23:47
  Although offensive linemen do not get paid.
• 23:50
  Well, not all, but although certain positions on the offensive line doesn't get paid as
• 23:55
  much, I do believe that the center and guard market is going to continue to rise because
• 24:01
  of, you know, the defensive line being valued a little bit more by teams because let's be
• 24:08
  real here, folks.
• 24:10
  Defense of linemen are getting bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic.
• 24:15
  Okay.
• 24:16
  And the only way that you can counteract that is, you know, investing into the offensive
• 24:22
  line.
• 24:23
  You just have to, unfortunately, because if you don't, you are going to mess yourself
• 24:28
  up.
• 24:29
  Okay.
• 24:30
  And I mean, you have to protect your quarterback.
• 24:33
  You have to invest some amount of money into your offensive line.
• 24:38
  Now, does it mean that you have to put all your money into the offensive line?
• 24:42
  No, but you do have to, you know, pick and choose which parts of the offensive line that
• 24:47
  you want to value.
• 24:49
  I mean, because when we look at it, you know, for center specifically, you have Creed Humphrey,
• 24:53
  you have Nick Harris, you have Ryan Kelly, Frank Ragnar, who pretty soon will be coming
• 24:59
  up for a new deal.
• 25:00
  You know, Connor Williams and whatnot.
• 25:03
  There are still really good centers and, you know, and teams value that they value that
• 25:10
  more than just saying, Oh, no, we can just let this center go.
• 25:13
  We can let him free hit, hit free agency.
• 25:16
  It's no problem when it's like, no, a lot of teams, they do value their title.
• 25:20
  I mean, they're not tight ends, but centers, they do.
• 25:23
  Now to say that they're going to be like, Oh, we're going to pay them an exuberant amount
• 25:28
  of money. I don't really know.
• 25:30
  I don't know, but I can say this.
• 25:33
  People when you look at Lloyd Cushingberry's deal, you know, when he hit free agency this
• 25:40
  year, he got paid pretty, pretty well, pretty well for a center.
• 25:46
  And you know, I know for a fact that Creed Humphrey, once it's time for him to get paid,
• 25:51
  he's going to get paid.
• 25:53
  He's going to get paid, paid.
• 25:54
  Okay.
• 25:55
  So that's for Tyler Linnabong with the Ravens. Those are just a few examples of, you know,
• 26:01
  top end players who are still relatively young, but, you know, play at a very elite level
• 26:06
  who are going to be compensated pretty well.
• 26:10
  Now to say that it's going to be something like, you know, earth shadowing and whatnot.
• 26:16
  I can't tell you, but, you know, only time will tell.
• 26:20
  Now when it comes for the guard market, that's where I think it's really going to explode.
• 26:25
  Okay.
• 26:26
  Because you have people like James Daniels, who is still, you know, in the prime of his
• 26:31
  career and is still fairly young, who he is, he's been playing a very, you know, pretty
• 26:38
  well since being with the Steelers.
• 26:39
  And I'm not saying that because I'm a Steelers fan.
• 26:41
  I'm saying that because statistically, he only, if I'm not mistaken, I don't have the
• 26:46
  exact stat with me.
• 26:48
  I probably should have, but he only allowed one sack.
• 26:52
  And for him to be, I think only 26 or 27 years old, oh yeah, he's definitely due for another
• 26:57
  back alert.
• 26:58
  Okay.
• 26:59
  Now for someone like a Zach Martin, who is, you know, sort of at the tail end of his career,
• 27:05
  he may be trying to go to a, you know, playoff caliber team just to, you know, experience
• 27:09
  that because, you know, Cowboys fans, they never haven't been to the Super Bowls since,
• 27:13
  you know, since I don't know how when.
• 27:15
  Sorry Cowboys fans.
• 27:16
  I love you guys though.
• 27:19
  Moving forward.
• 27:20
  Um, you know, people like Tevin Jenkins and Liam Eikenberg guards are a little bit, you
• 27:26
  know, are a little bit not questionable, but a little bit shaky because sometimes, you
• 27:32
  know, GMs will value, you know, investing more into the center and the tackles and then
• 27:39
  just getting some, you know, average to above average guards just to, you know, hope things
• 27:45
  together because let's be real here, folks.
• 27:48
  Do you really need like an elite offensive line where every single person has a first
• 27:52
  round pick and, you know, they're this and that statistically?
• 27:56
  No, but as long as it tackles early in your center, the guards, you can, you can, you
• 28:02
  know, you can pick them out, shuffle them, pick them out, shuffle them, pick them out,
• 28:06
  shuffle them.
• 28:07
  Right.
• 28:08
  Now, moving on to the guard market.
• 28:09
  I mean, not guard market, cornerback market, excuse me.
• 28:12
  Guard market is a little bit weird itself as well simply because for next year's free
• 28:18
  agency class four corners, the only corner that I could really think of that's going
• 28:21
  to be, you know, really sought after a lot is possibly AJ Turrell.
• 28:27
  That's probably the only one.
• 28:28
  Now, Carlton Davis, he, he, depending on how he does this season, he may, he may be
• 28:35
  due for like a, you know, a pretty, pretty good deal.
• 28:39
  But to say like team, like multiple teams are going to be after them, like how, you
• 28:43
  know, teams were after with Jerry, it's neat and company.
• 28:45
  No, I just don't see that personally.
• 28:48
  CJ Henderson is sort of in, is sort of like in between of that as well.
• 28:53
  I just personally feel like the corner, cornerback market is going to rise a little bit, but
• 28:58
  it's not really going to explode until Patrick Sertain and Sauce are due for their contract.
• 29:06
  Same thing for those two corners, because those two corners are literally the best corners
• 29:11
  in the league right now.
• 29:12
  Okay.
• 29:13
  You're talking about, you know, two corners who basically eliminate the side of the field
• 29:19
  that they are on.
• 29:20
  Okay.
• 29:21
  And I'm not going to, I'm just going to leave that there.
• 29:22
  I'm not going to go any further because if I do, I'm going to go down an entire rabbit
• 29:26
  hole with corners.
• 29:27
  Okay.
• 29:28
  Now let's look at these stagnant markets.
• 29:29
  Okay.
• 29:30
  And it's mainly two markets, safety and inside linebacker.
• 29:34
  And the reason why I say that is because safeties are not valued as much as how they were, you
• 29:40
  know, back in the day, you know, back in the day, and I'm not trying to reveal my age,
• 29:44
  but you know, you have people like the Ed reads, Bob Sanders, Troy Palma, lose of the
• 29:49
  world, right?
• 29:50
  Compared to now, you know, the elites are probably what?
• 29:53
  Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, Durwin James, Mica Fitzpatrick and company where, okay,
• 30:00
  yes, they are making pretty good money, but to say that the safety market as a whole is
• 30:04
  going to be this robust market that's just going to, you know, change overnight.
• 30:08
  No, I think it's going to remain pretty stagnant.
• 30:11
  There may be one or two people that may get, you know, a pretty good deal, but to say that
• 30:15
  it's going to be a lot of turnover.
• 30:17
  No.
• 30:18
  And it sort of showed because, you know, Antoine Winfield Jr. was he reset at the market if
• 30:23
  I'm not mistaken.
• 30:26
  And that's mainly because he plays such a pivotal role on the Buccaneers and he is one
• 30:31
  of the best states that no one really isn't, you know, talking about it as much.
• 30:35
  He's really good.
• 30:36
  You're talking about a tackling machine, someone who can go and get the ball.
• 30:41
  And you know, when you need him to get the job done, he is that person that does it.
• 30:45
  Okay.
• 30:46
  Now, do now out of the people that I think could possibly get a pretty good payday, probably
• 30:51
  maybe Javon Holland or Julian Love, maybe Jeremy Chen, maybe Justin Reed, Buddha Baker.
• 30:58
  I don't know because I don't know how do teams view Buddha Baker.
• 31:04
  I don't know if they value him to say, you know, okay, we'll give you, you know, five
• 31:09
  to eight million a year or, you know, whatever the case may be because there are still some
• 31:14
  safeties in the market right now.
• 31:16
  You know, you have your Jamal Adams.
• 31:17
  You have Eddie Jackson's of the world and whatnot.
• 31:21
  So, you know, who, who knows honestly?
• 31:25
  And you know, lately within the last maybe, you know, three to five years, the safety
• 31:30
  market has just really just been taking a beating because, you know, GM's don't value
• 31:37
  them as far as wanting to resign them.
• 31:40
  Most of the times they'll, you know, they'll just go in the draft.
• 31:42
  If they see a safety that's, you know, pretty elite and they'll just invest in that compared
• 31:47
  to, you know, overpaying for them.
• 31:49
  Now with the inside linebacker market, right?
• 31:53
  Just to name a few, you know, you have Willie Gay Jr. and Anthony Walker and Devin Bush
• 31:57
  for next year.
• 31:58
  That's not really good.
• 32:00
  It's just not, it's, it's, it's tough.
• 32:02
  It's a tough one.
• 32:03
  Okay.
• 32:04
  Um, out of all of those names that I just said, probably Willie Gay Jr. probably could have
• 32:09
  made, you know, some pretty good money, but the problem is, like I've said before, the
• 32:15
  inside linebacker market is not valued as much as all the other markets, even though they
• 32:20
  play a very major role, um, because they are the ones that sort of counteract with these,
• 32:27
  you know, super athletic, you know, tight ends and whatnot.
• 32:30
  But unfortunately, you know, they do not, they don't really invest to them a whole lot
• 32:36
  and it shows.
• 32:37
  It does unfortunately.
• 32:38
  Now do I think, do I think the market will, will rise just a little bit?
• 32:44
  I don't know.
• 32:45
  I don't know because, you know, when you have people like real Quon Smith, who, you know,
• 32:49
  coming into the league, he was regarded as one of the best, you know, middle linebackers.
• 32:54
  He had to be compensated, you know, for that.
• 32:57
  He had to.
• 32:58
  Okay.
• 32:59
  Fred Warner, he's probably going to get another deal that's going to probably get as close
• 33:02
  or maybe it's a past real Quon Smith, but to say that, you know, this person is going
• 33:06
  to get it.
• 33:07
  This person is going to get it.
• 33:08
  This person going to get it.
• 33:09
  No.
• 33:10
  Because even with Patrick Queens's deal, Patrick Queen actually took less to go to the Steelers.
• 33:14
  Because like he said, in his interview with, with Derek Bell, shout out to shout out to
• 33:21
  Derek Bell and everybody at Steelers now.
• 33:25
  You know, he said that he took less and he said there were multiple offers, better offers,
• 33:30
  you know, with other teams, but he felt like he just wanted to be with the Steelers, which
• 33:33
  is fine.
• 33:34
  You know, that's perfectly fine.
• 33:35
  I'm not saying that because I'm a Steelers fan, but you know, it just shows you that certain
• 33:40
  types of middle linebackers may get a better chance of, you know, maybe getting a pretty
• 33:47
  good payday compared to, you know, just the entire market as a whole.
• 33:51
  So I want to end all that to say this.
• 33:54
  Do I think, do I think that, you know, next year could be as crazy as it was this year
• 34:01
  with all the bag alerts?
• 34:03
  Not as much, but I think, I think it will, there'll still be bag alerts, but to say it
• 34:09
  will be as crazy as how it was, you know, leading up to the draft and even during the
• 34:13
  draft and post draft.
• 34:15
  No, I just don't see that.
• 34:16
  I just don't.
• 34:17
  With it being a defensive class, I think a lot of teams are going to try to, you know,
• 34:22
  create some money and possibly try to reload their defense with younger talent, better
• 34:27
  talent possibly and just go from there.
• 34:29
  But I'm just going to end this episode right now.
• 34:32
  If you guys like what you are listening, please download the episode that allows us to let
• 34:38
  us know that you guys like what we are talking about.
• 34:42
  Please leave a star review, five star review if possible.
• 34:46
  I would deep, I would deeply appreciate it from the bottom of my heart.
• 34:49
  Follow us on YouTube.
• 34:51
  You can follow us on Spotify as well.
• 34:54
  You can follow us on Tiktok content for Tiktok is coming out soon.
• 34:58
  You can follow us on Instagram at football underscore junkies pod YouTube football underscore
• 35:04
  junkies pod and Tiktok football underscore junkies pod is the same thing for all the
• 35:10
  social social media shout out to Spotify shout out to Apple podcast shout out to RSS feed
• 35:16
  for helping us out as well.
• 35:18
  Shout out to all the platforms that we are on.
• 35:21
  If there's any that I have forgotten, I'm sorry.
• 35:23
  You may have not come to mind right now.
• 35:27
  But you know, as always, I love you guys.
• 35:29
  I appreciate you guys so much.
• 35:31
  You know, for for riding with me with this journey, you know, to say that I would have
• 35:35
  started a podcast, you know, where I am right now, I would have called you a liar.
• 35:40
  But to be, you know, 14 episodes in, you know, it is, it feels great.
• 35:45
  It really does feel amazing.
• 35:46
  And I appreciate, you know, all of you guys for supporting me, you know, throughout all
• 35:50
  of this.
• 35:51
  And, you know, it's only up from here, you know, it's only up from here.
• 35:54
  So YouTube content will be coming out.
• 35:58
  Still got to get back in the lab to look at, you know, a few prospects and whatnot.
• 36:03
  And yeah, if there's anything crazy that happens, you know, best believe we'll either put out
• 36:07
  an episode or do something just to let you guys know we'll go over it quickly and then,
• 36:12
  you know, put it out.
• 36:13
  But as always, I hope I gave you guys the fix that you guys loved and needed.
• 36:17
  And as always, peace and love.
• 36:19
  I'm out.
• 36:20
  I'm out.